Search results for: partially observable Markov decision processes

Authors: P. C. Tewari, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

The paper describes the availability analysis of milling system of a rice milling plant using probabilistic approach. The subsystems under study are special purpose machines. The availability analysis of the system is carried out to determine the effect of failure and repair rates of each subsystem on overall performance (i.e. steady state availability) of system concerned. Further, on the basis of effect of repair rates on the system availability, maintenance repair priorities have been suggested. The problem is formulated using Markov Birth-Death process taking exponential distribution for probable failures and repair rates. The first order differential equations associated with transition diagram are developed by using mnemonic rule. These equations are solved using normalizing conditions and recursive method to drive out the steady state availability expression of the system. The findings of the paper are presented and discussed with the plant personnel to adopt a suitable maintenance policy to increase the productivity of the rice milling plant.

Keywords: availability modeling, Markov process, milling system, rice milling plant

Procedia PDF Downloads 206

Authors: Shahram Payandeh

Abstract:

This paper presents an overview of a model which can be used as a part of a decision support system when fusing information from multiple sensing environment. Data fusion has been widely studied in the past few decades and numerous frameworks have been proposed to facilitate decision making process under uncertainties. Multi-sensor data fusion technology plays an increasingly significant role during people tracking and activity recognition. This paper presents an overview of a quantum model as a part of a decision-making process in the context of multi-sensor data fusion. The paper presents basic definitions and relationships associating the decision-making process and quantum model formulation in the presence of uncertainties.

Keywords: quantum model, sensor space, sensor network, decision support

Procedia PDF Downloads 201

Authors: Tulio Sulbaran, Sandeep Langar

Abstract:

Architects are an integral part of the construction industry and are continuously incorporating decisions that influence projects during their life cycle. These decisions aim at selecting best alternative from the ones available. Unfortunately, this decision making process is mainly unexplored in the construction industry. No instrument to measure construction decision, based on knowledgebase of decision-makers, has existed. Additionally, limited literature is available on the topic. Recently, an instrument to gain an understanding of the construction decision-making process was developed by Dr. Tulio Sulbaran from the University of Texas, San Antonio. The instrument’s name is 'Construction Decision Making Inventory (CDMI)'. The CDMI is an innovative idea to measure the 'What? When? How? Moreover, Who?' of the construction decision-making process. As an innovative idea, its statistical validity (accuracy of the assessment) is yet to be assessed. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to describe the results of a case study with architects in the south-east of the United States aimed to determine the CDMI validity. The results of the case study are important because they assess the validity of the tool. Furthermore, as the architects evaluated each question within the measurements, this study is also guiding the enhancement of the CDMI.

Keywords: decision, support, inventory, architect

Procedia PDF Downloads 301

Authors: Yiqi Wu, Simon Tait, Andrew Nichols

Abstract:

Management of UK railway drainage assets is challenging due to the large amounts of historical assets with long asset life cycles. A major concern for asset managers is to maintain the required performance economically and efficiently while complying with the relevant regulation and legislation. As the majority of the drainage assets are buried underground and are often difficult or costly to examine, it is important for asset managers to understand and model the degradation process in order to foresee the upcoming reduction in asset performance and conduct proactive maintenance accordingly. In this research, a Markov chain approach is used to model the deterioration process of rail drainage assets. The study is based on historical condition scores and characteristics of drainage assets across the whole railway network in England, Scotland, and Wales. The model is used to examine the effect of various characteristics on the probabilities of degradation, for example, the regional difference in probabilities of degradation, and how material and shape can influence the deterioration process for chambers, channels, and pipes.

Keywords: deterioration, degradation, markov models, probability, railway drainage

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Suparman

Abstract:

Piecewise polynomial regression model is very flexible model for modeling the data. If the piecewise polynomial regression model is matched against the data, its parameters are not generally known. This paper studies the parameter estimation problem of piecewise polynomial regression model. The method which is used to estimate the parameters of the piecewise polynomial regression model is Bayesian method. Unfortunately, the Bayes estimator cannot be found analytically. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm is proposed to solve this problem. Reversible jump MCMC algorithm generates the Markov chain that converges to the limit distribution of the posterior distribution of piecewise polynomial regression model parameter. The resulting Markov chain is used to calculate the Bayes estimator for the parameters of piecewise polynomial regression model.

Keywords: piecewise regression, bayesian, reversible jump MCMC, segmentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Karrar Raoof Kareem Kamoona, Enas Fathi Taher AlHares, Zeynep Isik

Abstract:

The various disciplines in the construction industry and the co-existence of the people in the various disciplines are what builds well-developed, closely-knit interpersonal skills at various hierarchical levels thus leading to a varied way of leadership. The varied decision making aspects during the lifecycle of a project include: autocratic, participatory and last but not least, free-rein. We can classify some of the decision makers in the construction industry in a hierarchical manner as follows: project executive, project manager, superintendent, office engineer and finally the field engineer. This survey looked at how decisions are made during the construction period by the key stakeholders in the project. From the paper it is evident that the three decision making aspects can be used at different times or at times together in order to bring out the best leadership decision. A blend of different leadership styles should be used to enhance the success rate during the project lifecycle.

Keywords: leadership style, construction, decision-making, built environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Noppadol Sritragool

Abstract:

The objectives of this research were to investigate the decision of passengers who choose to fry with low cost airlines and to study marketing factors which have the influence to the decision to choose each low cost airlines. This paper was a quantitative research technique. A total of 400 low cost airlines’ passengers were interviewed via English questionnaire to collect the respondents’ opinions. The findings revealed that respondents were male and female at a similar proportion. The majority had at least an undergraduate degree, have a lower management level jobs, and had income in the range of 25,000 -35,000 baht per month.. In addition, the findings also revealed that the first three marketing factors influencing the decision of the respondents to choose low-cost airlines were low price, direct flight, and online system.

Keywords: decision to choose, marketing factors, low-cost airlines

Procedia PDF Downloads 404

Authors: H.-H. Doh, J.-M. Yu, Y.-J. Kwon, J.-H. Shin, H.-W. Kim, S.-H. Nam, D.-H. Lee

Abstract:

This paper suggests a decision tree based approach for flexible job shop scheduling with multiple process plans, i. e. each job can be processed through alternative operations, each of which can be processed on alternative machines. The main decision variables are: (a) selecting operation/machine pair; and (b) sequencing the jobs assigned to each machine. As an extension of the priority scheduling approach that selects the best priority rule combination after many simulation runs, this study suggests a decision tree based approach in which a decision tree is used to select a priority rule combination adequate for a specific system state and hence the burdens required for developing simulation models and carrying out simulation runs can be eliminated. The decision tree based scheduling approach consists of construction and scheduling modules. In the construction module, a decision tree is constructed using a four-stage algorithm, and in the scheduling module, a priority rule combination is selected using the decision tree. To show the performance of the decision tree based approach suggested in this study, a case study was done on a flexible job shop with reconfigurable manufacturing cells and a conventional job shop, and the results are reported by comparing it with individual priority rule combinations for the objectives of minimizing total flow time and total tardiness.

Keywords: flexible job shop scheduling, decision tree, priority rules, case study

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: Jayantha Withanaarachchi, Sujeeva Setunge, Sara Moridpour

Abstract:

Gaps in strategic thinking and planning lead to critical transport infrastructure resilience. These gaps in strategic transport and land use development planning have an impact on communities and cities. Natural and man-induced disasters can be catastrophic to communities. After a disaster, many types of critical infrastructure, including transport infrastructure gets un-usable or gets damaged. This paper examines strategic thinking behind the resilience and protection of Critical Transport Infrastructure (CI) within transport networks by investigating the impact of disasters such as bushfires, hurricanes and earthquakes. A detailed analysis of three case studies have been conducted to identify the gaps in strategic transport planning and strategic decision making processes required to mitigate the impacts of disasters. Case studies will be analysed to identify existing gaps in road design, transport planning and decision making. This paper examines the effect of road designing, transport corridors and decision making during transport planning stages and how it impacts transport infrastructure as well as community resilience. A set of recommendations to overcome the shortcomings of existing strategic planning and designing process are presented. This research paper reviews transport infrastructure planning issues and presents the common approach suitable for future strategic thinking and planning which could be adopted in practices.

Keywords: community resilience, decision making , infrastructure resilience, strategic transport planning, transport infrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Benlakhdar Mohamed Larbi, Yagoub Asma

Abstract:

Purpose: This study aims at highlighting the significance and importance of utilizing marketing information system (MKIS) on decision-making, by clarifying the need for quick and efficient decision-making due to time saving and preventing of duplication of work. Design, methodology, approach: The study shows the roles of each part of MKIS for developing marketing strategy, which present a real challenge to individuals and institutions in an era characterized by uncertainty and clarifying the importance of each part separately, depending on decision type and the nature of the situation. The empirical research method was evaluated by specialized experts, conducted by means of questionnaires. Correlation analysis was employed to test the validity of the procedure. Results: The empirical study findings confirmed positive relationships between the level of utilizing and adopting ‘decision support system and marketing intelligence’ and the success of an organizational decision-making, and provide the organization with a competitive advantage as it allows the organization to solve problems. Originality/value: The study offer better understanding of performance- increasing market share as an organizational decision making based on marketing information system.

Keywords: database, marketing research, marketing intelligence, decision support system, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Rolla Monib, Chris Ian Goodier, Alistair Gibb

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate decision support strategies in the EC sector to determine the most appropriate degree of modularization. This is achieved through three oil and gas (O&G) and two power plant case studies via semi-structured interviews (n=59 and n=27, respectively), analysis of project documents, and case study-specific semi-structured validation interviews (n=12 and n=8). New terminology to distinguish degrees of modularization is proposed, along with a decision-making support checklist and a diagrammatic decision-making support figure. Results indicate that the EC sub-sectors were substantially more satisfied with the application of component, structural, or traditional modularization compared with system modularization for some types of modules. Key drivers for decisions on the degree of modularization vary across module types. This paper can help the EC sector determine the most suitable degree of modularization via a decision-making support strategy.

Keywords: modularization, engineering construction, case study, decision support

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Mariam Shah

Abstract:

Stereotypes are not generally considered to be an acceptable influence upon any decision making process, particularly those involving judicial decision making outcomes. Yet, we are confronted with an uncomfortable truth that stereotypes may be operating to influence judicial outcomes. Variances in sentencing outcomes are not easily explained away by criminological, psychological, or sociological theorem, but may be answered via qualitative research produced within the field of phenomenology. This paper will examine the current literature pertaining to the effect of stereotypes on the criminal justice system within the UK, and will also discuss what the implications are for stereotypical influences upon decision making in the criminal justice system. This paper will give particular focus to shoplifting offences dealt with in UK criminal courts, but this research has long reaching implications for the criminal process more generally.

Keywords: decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, shoplifting, stereotypes

Procedia PDF Downloads 305

Authors: Rohit Tripathi, Sumit Tiwari, G. N. Tiwari

Abstract:

In present study, an approach is adopted where photovoltaic thermal flat plate collector is integrated with compound parabolic concentrator. Analytical expression of temperature dependent electrical efficiency of N number of partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) water collector connected in series has been derived with the help of basic thermal energy balance equations. Analysis has been carried for winter weather condition at Delhi location, India. Energy and exergy performance of N - partially covered Photovoltaic Thermal (PVT) - Compound Parabolic Concentrator (CPC) Water collector system has been compared for two cases: (i) 25% area of water collector covered by PV module, (ii) 75% area of water collector covered by PV module. It is observed that case (i) has been best suited for thermal performance and case (ii) for electrical energy as well as overall exergy.

Keywords: compound parabolic concentrator, energy, photovoltaic thermal, temperature dependent electrical efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

Abstract:

Three reasons make good use of the decision theory in medicine: 1. Increased medical knowledge and their complexity makes it difficult treatment information effectively without resorting to sophisticated analytical methods, especially when it comes to detecting errors and identify opportunities for treatment from databases of large size. 2. There is a wide geographic variability of medical practice. In a context where medical costs are, at least in part, by the patient, these changes raise doubts about the relevance of the choices made by physicians. These differences are generally attributed to differences in estimates of probabilities of success of treatment involved, and differing assessments of the results on success or failure. Without explicit criteria for decision, it is difficult to identify precisely the sources of these variations in treatment. 3. Beyond the principle of informed consent, patients need to be involved in decision-making. For this, the decision process should be explained and broken down. A decision problem is to select the best option among a set of choices. The problem is what is meant by "best option ", or know what criteria guide the choice. The purpose of decision theory is to answer this question. The systematic use of decision models allows us to better understand the differences in medical practices, and facilitates the search for consensus. About this, there are three types of situations: situations certain, risky situations, and uncertain situations: 1. In certain situations, the consequence of each decision are certain. 2. In risky situations, every decision can have several consequences, the probability of each of these consequences is known. 3. In uncertain situations, each decision can have several consequences, the probability is not known. Our aim in this article is to show how decision theory can usefully be mobilized to meet the needs of physicians. The decision theory can make decisions more transparent: first, by clarifying the data systematically considered the problem and secondly by asking a few basic principles should guide the choice. Once the problem and clarified the decision theory provides operational tools to represent the available information and determine patient preferences, and thus assist the patient and doctor in their choices.

Keywords: decision making, medicine, treatment strategies, patient

Procedia PDF Downloads 560

Authors: Souad Romdhane, Lotfi Belkacem

Abstract:

When referring to actuarial analysis of lifetime, only models accounting for observable risk factors have been developed. Within this context, Cox proportional hazards model (CPH model) is commonly used to assess the effects of observable covariates as gender, age, smoking habits, on the hazard rates. These covariates may fail to fully account for the true lifetime interval. This may be due to the existence of another random variable (frailty) that is still being ignored. The aim of this paper is to examine the shared frailty issue in the Cox proportional hazard model by including two different parametric forms of frailty into the hazard function. Four estimated methods are used to fit them. The performance of the parameter estimates is assessed and compared between the classical Cox model and these frailty models through a real-life data set from the Quebec Pension Plan and then using a more general simulation study. This performance is investigated in terms of the bias of point estimates and their empirical standard errors in both fixed and random effect parts. Both the simulation and the real dataset studies showed differences between classical Cox model and shared frailty model.

Keywords: life insurance-pension plan, survival analysis, risk factors, cox proportional hazards model, multivariate failure-time data, shared frailty, simulations study

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Dovile Petkeviciute-Barysiene

Abstract:

Legal technologies not only create new ways for accessing and providing legal services but also transform the role of legal practitioners. Both lawyers and users of legal services expect automated solutions to outperform people with objectivity and impartiality. Although fairness of the automated decisions is crucial, research on assessing various characteristics of automated processes related to the perceived fairness has only begun. One of the major obstacles to this research is the lack of comprehensive understanding of what legal actions are automated and could be meaningfully automated, and to what extent. Neither public nor legal practitioners oftentimes cannot envision technological input due to the lack of general without illustrative examples. The aim of this study is to map decision making stages and automation levels which are and/or could be achieved in legal actions related to pre-trial and trial processes. Major legal decisions and judgments are identified during the consultations with legal practitioners. The dual-process model of information processing is used to describe cognitive processes taking place while making legal decisions and judgments during pre-trial and trial action. Some of the existing legal technologies are incorporated into the analysis as well. Several published automation level taxonomies are considered because none of them fit well into the legal context, as they were all created for avionics, teleoperation, unmanned aerial vehicles, etc. From the information processing perspective, analysis of the legal decisions and judgments expose situations that are most sensitive to cognitive bias, among others, also help to identify areas that would benefit from the automation the most. Automation level analysis, in turn, provides a systematic approach to interaction and cooperation between humans and algorithms. Moreover, an integrated map of legal decisions and judgments, information processing characteristics, and automation levels all together provide some groundwork for the research of legal technology perceived fairness and acceptance. Acknowledgment: This project has received funding from European Social Fund (project No 09.3.3-LMT-K-712-19-0116) under grant agreement with the Research Council of Lithuania (LMTLT).

Keywords: automation levels, information processing, legal judgment and decision making, legal technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Arwa Khannoussi, Alexandru-Liviu Olteanu, Pritesh Narayan, Catherine Dezan, Jean-Philippe Diguet, Patrick Meyer, Jacques Petit-Frere

Abstract:

Due to the nature of autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) missions, it is important that the decisions of a UAV stay consistent with the priorities of an operator, while at the same time allowing them to be easily audited and explained. We propose a multi-layer decision engine that integrates the operator (human) preferences by using the Multi-Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) methods. A software implementation of a UAV simulator and of the decision engine is presented to highlight the advantage of using such techniques on high-level decisions. We demonstrate that, with such a preference-based decision engine, the decisions of the UAV are compatible with the priorities of the operator, which in turn increases her/his confidence in its autonomous behavior.

Keywords: autonomous UAV, multi-criteria decision aiding, multi-layers decision engine, operator's preferences, traceable decisions, UAV simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 228

Authors: Wissal Ben Arfi, Jean-Michel Sahut

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to provide a deeper understanding of the succession process from a knowledge management perspective. By doing that, succession process in family businesses, as an environment for creating and sharing knowledge, was explored. Design/Methodology/Approach: To support our reasoning, we collected qualitative data through 16 in-depth interviews conducted with all decision makers involved in the family businesses succession process in France. These open-ended responses were subsequently exposed to thematic discourse analysis. Findings: Central to this exhibit is the nature and magnitude of knowledge creation and sharing among the actors within the family succession context and how can tacit knowledge sharing facilitate the succession process. We also identified factors that inhibit down the knowledge creation and sharing processes. The sharing and creation of knowledge among members of a family business appear to be a complex process that must be part of a strategy for change. This implies that it requests trust and takes a certain amount of time because it requires organizational change and a clear and coherent strategic vision that is accepted and assimilated by all the members. Professional and leadership skills are of particular importance in knowledge sharing and creation processes. In most cases, tacit knowledge is crucial when it is shared and accumulated collectively. Our findings reveal that managers should find ways of implementing knowledge sharing and creation processes while acknowledging the succession process within family firms. This study highlights the importance of generating knowledge strategies in order to enhance the performance and the success of intergenerational succession. The empirical outcomes contribute to enrich the field of succession management process and enhance the role of knowledge in shaping family performance and longevity. To a large extent, the lessons learned from the study of succession processes in family-owned businesses are that when there is a deliberate effort to introduce a knowledge-based approach, this action becomes a seminal event in the life of the organization. Originality/Value: The paper contributes to the deep understanding of interactions among actors by examining the knowledge creation and sharing processes since current researches in family succession focused on aspects such as personal development of potential, intra-family succession intention, decision-making processes in family businesses. Besides, as succession is one of the key factors that determine the longevity and the performance of family businesses, it also contributes to literature by examining how tacit knowledge is transferred, shared and created in family businesses and how this can facilitate the intergenerational succession process.

Keywords: family-owned businesses, succession process, knowledge, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 181

Authors: Rene Hellmuth, Jorg Frohnmayer

Abstract:

The requirements of the factory planning and the building concerned have changed in the last years. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring gains more importance in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Even today, the methods and process models used in factory planning are predominantly based on the classical planning principles of Schmigalla, Aggteleky and Kettner, which, however, are not specifically designed for reorganization. In addition, they are designed for a largely static environmental situation and a manageable planning complexity as well as for medium to long-term planning cycles with a low variability of the factory. Existing approaches already regard factory planning as a continuous process that makes it possible to react quickly to adaptation requirements. However, digital factory models are not yet used as a source of information for building data. Approaches which consider building information modeling (BIM) or digital factory models in general either do not refer to factory conversions or do not yet go beyond a concept. This deficit can be further substantiated. A method for factory conversion planning using a current digital building model is lacking. A corresponding approach must take into account both the existing approaches to factory planning and the use of digital factory models in practice. A literature review will be conducted first. In it, approaches to classic factory planning and approaches to conversion planning are examined. In addition, it will be investigated which approaches already contain digital factory models. In the second step, an approach is presented how digital factory models based on building information modeling can be used as a basis for augmented reality tablet applications. This application is suitable for construction sites and provides information on the costs and time required for conversion variants. Thus a fast decision making is supported. In summary, the paper provides an overview of existing factory planning approaches and critically examines the use of digital tools. Based on this preliminary work, an approach is presented, which suggests the sensible use of digital factory models for decision support in the case of conversion variants of the factory building. The augmented reality application is designed to summarize the most important information for decision-makers during a reconstruction process.

Keywords: augmented reality, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Gopinath Rathod, Vinod Puranik

Abstract:

Sustainability is regarded as a key concept for survival in the competitive scenario. Industrial risk and diversification of risk type’s increases with industrial developments. In the context of sustainable manufacturing, the evaluation of risk is difficult because of the incomplete information and multiple indicators. Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Method (FMADM) has been used with a three level hierarchical decision making model to evaluate aggregate risk for sustainable manufacturing projects. A case study has been presented to reflect the risk characteristics in sustainable manufacturing projects.

Keywords: sustainable manufacturing, decision making, aggregate risk, fuzzy logic, fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

Procedia PDF Downloads 495

Authors: Fatima Zohra Rahou, A. Guen Bouazza, B. Bouazza

Abstract:

Invention of transistor is the foundation of electronics industry. Metal Oxide Semiconductor Field Effect Transistor (MOSFET) has been the key for the development of nanoelectronics technology. In the first part of this manuscript, we present a new generation of MOSFET transistors based on SOI (Silicon-On-Insulator) technology. It is a partially depleted Silicon-On-Insulator (PD SOI MOSFET) transistor simulated by using SILVACO software. This work was completed by the presentation of some results concerning the influence of parameters variation (channel length L and gate oxide thickness Tox) on our PDSOI n-MOSFET structure on its drain current and kink effect.

Keywords: SOI technology, PDSOI MOSFET, FDSOI MOSFET, kink effect

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Tatsuya Otoshi, Masayuki Murata

Abstract:

With the development and diversification of applications on the Internet, applications that require high responsiveness, such as video streaming, are becoming mainstream. Application responsiveness is not only a matter of communication delay but also a matter of time required to grasp changes in network conditions. The tradeoff between accuracy and measurement time is a challenge in network control. We people make countless decisions all the time, and our decisions seem to resolve tradeoffs between time and accuracy. When making decisions, people are known to make appropriate choices based on relatively small samples. Although there have been various studies on models of human decision-making, a model that integrates various cognitive biases, called ”quantum decision-making,” has recently attracted much attention. However, the modeling of small samples has not been examined much so far. In this paper, we extend the model of quantum decision-making to model decision-making with a small sample. In the proposed model, the state is updated by value-based probability amplitude amplification. By analytically obtaining a lower bound on the number of samples required for decision-making, we show that decision-making with a small number of samples is feasible.

Keywords: quantum decision making, small sample, MPEG-DASH, Grover's algorithm

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Peter Boyes, Sarah Sharples, Paul Tennent, Gary Priestnall, Jeremy Morley

Abstract:

Significant long-term investment projects can involve complex decisions. These are often described as capital projects, and the factors that contribute to their complexity include budgets, motivating reasons for investment, stakeholder involvement, interdependent projects, and the delivery phases required. The complexity of these projects often requires management groups to be established involving stakeholder representatives; these teams are inherently multidisciplinary. This study uses two university campus capital projects as case studies for this type of management group. Due to the interaction of projects with wider campus infrastructure and users, decisions are made at varying spatial granularity throughout the project lifespan. This spatial-related context brings complexity to the group decisions. Sensemaking is the process used to achieve group situational awareness of a complex situation, enabling the team to arrive at a consensus and make a decision. The purpose of this study is to understand the role of people and data in the complex spatial related long-term decision and sensemaking processes. The paper aims to identify and present issues experienced in practical settings of these types of decision. A series of exploratory semi-structured interviews with members of the two projects elicit an understanding of their operation. From two stages of thematic analysis, inductive and deductive, emergent themes are identified around the group structure, the data usage, and the decision making within these groups. When data were made available to the group, there were commonly issues with the perception of veracity and validity of the data presented; this impacted the ability of group to reach consensus and, therefore, for decisions to be made. Similarly, there were different responses to forecasted or modelled data, shaped by the experience and occupation of the individuals within the multidisciplinary management group. This paper provides an understanding of further support required for team sensemaking and decision making in complex capital projects. The paper also discusses the barriers found to effective decision making in this setting and suggests opportunities to develop decision support systems in this team strategic decision-making process. Recommendations are made for further research into the sensemaking and decision-making process of this complex spatial-related setting.

Keywords: decision making, decisions under uncertainty, real decisions, sensemaking, spatial, team decision making

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Suparman Suparman

Abstract:

A white noise in autoregressive (AR) model is often assumed to be normally distributed. In application, the white noise usually do not follows a normal distribution. This paper aims to estimate a parameter of AR model that has a exponential white noise. A Bayesian method is adopted. A prior distribution of the parameter of AR model is selected and then this prior distribution is combined with a likelihood function of data to get a posterior distribution. Based on this posterior distribution, a Bayesian estimator for the parameter of AR model is estimated. Because the order of AR model is considered a parameter, this Bayesian estimator cannot be explicitly calculated. To resolve this problem, a method of reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is adopted. A result is a estimation of the parameter AR model can be simultaneously calculated.

Keywords: autoregressive (AR) model, exponential white Noise, bayesian, reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

Procedia PDF Downloads 333

Authors: Gabriel Woldu, Maria Sassi

Abstract:

Coffee performs a pivotal role in Ethiopia's GDP, revenue, employment, domestic demand, and export earnings. Ethiopia's coffee production and exports show high variability in the amount of production and export earnings. Despite being the continent's fifth-largest coffee producer, Ethiopia has not developed its ability to shine as a major exporter in the globe's green coffee exports. Ethiopian coffee exports were not stable and had high volume and earnings fluctuations. The main aim of this study was to analyze the dynamics of the export of coffee variation to different importing nations using a first-order Markov Chain model. 14 years of time-series data has been used to examine the direction and structural change in the export of coffee. A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was used to determine the annual growth rate in the coffee export quantity, value, and per-unit price over the study period. The major export markets for Ethiopian coffee were Germany, Japan, and the USA, which were more stable, while countries such as France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia were less stable and had low retention rates for Ethiopian coffee. The study, therefore, recommends that Ethiopia should again revitalize its market to France, Italy, Belgium, and Saudi Arabia, as these countries are the major coffee-consuming countries in the world to boost its export stake to the global coffee markets in the future. In order to further enhance export stability, the Ethiopian Government and other stakeholders in the coffee sector should have to work on reducing the volatility of coffee output and exports in order to improve production and quality efficiency, so that stabilize markets as well as to make the product attractive and price competitive in the importing countries.

Keywords: coffee, CAGR, Markov chain, direction of trade, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Ngo Thi Thu, Kazuo Tanaka, Masahiro Tanaka, Dao Ngoc Chien

Abstract:

Nanometric superfocusing of optical intensity near the tip of partially metal- coated dielectric conical probe of the convergent surface plasmon polariton wave is investigated by the volume integral equation method. It is possible to perform nanofocusing using this probe by using both linearly and radially polarized Gaussian beams as the incident waves. Strongly localized and enhanced optical near-fields can be created on the tip of this probe for the cases of both incident Gaussian beams. However the intensity distribution near the probe tip was found to be very sensitive to the shape of the probe tip.

Keywords: waveguide, surface plasmons, electromagnetic theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: Katarzyna Mleczko

Abstract:

Processes of production of innovative medical tools have interdisciplinary character. They consist of direct and indirect close cooperation of specialists of different scientific branches. The Knowledge they have seems to be important for undertaken design, construction and manufacturing processes. The Knowledge exchange between participants of these processes is therefore crucial for the final result, which are innovative medical products. The paper draws attention to the necessity of feedback from the end user to the designer / manufacturer of medical tools which will allow for more accurate understanding of user needs. The study describes prerequisites of production processes of innovative medical (surgical) tools including participants and category of knowledge resources occurring in these processes. They are the result of research in selected Polish organizations involved in the production of medical instruments and are the basis for further work on the development of knowledge sharing model in interdisciplinary teams geographically dispersed.

Keywords: interdisciplinary production processes, knowledge exchange, knowledge sharing, medical tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Otto Kakhidze, Hoda Alkhzaimi, Adam Ramey, Nasir Memon

Abstract:

This paper provides an alternative, cyber security based a conceptual framework for the ethics of automated warfare. The large body of work produced on fully or partially autonomous warfare systems tends to overlook malicious security factors as in the possibility of technical attacks on these systems when it comes to the moral and legal decision-making. The argument provides a risk-oriented justification to why technical malicious risks cannot be dismissed in legal, ethical and policy considerations when warfare models are being implemented and deployed. The assumptions of the paper are supported by providing a broader model that contains the perspective of technological vulnerabilities through the lenses of the Game Theory, Just War Theory as well as standard and non-standard defense ethics. The paper argues that a conventional risk-benefit analysis without considering ethical factors is insufficient for making legal and policy decisions on automated warfare. This approach will provide the substructure for security and defense experts as well as legal scholars, ethicists and decision theorists to work towards common justificatory grounds that will accommodate the technical security concerns that have been overlooked in the current legal and policy models.

Keywords: automated warfare, ethics of automation, inherent hijacking, security vulnerabilities, risk, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Anastasia Kalamakidou

Abstract:

Transport infrastructure assets are key components of the national asset portfolio. The decision to invest in a new infrastructure in transports could take from a few years to some decades. This is mainly because of the need to reserve and spent many capitals, the long payback period, the number of the stakeholders involved in the decision process and –many times- the investment and business risks are high. Decision makers and stakeholders need to define the framework and the outputs of the decision process taking into account the project characteristics, the business uncertainties, and the different expectations. Therefore, the decision assessment framework is an essential challenge linked with the key decision factors meet the stakeholder expectations highlighting project trade-offs, financial risks, business uncertainties and market limitations. This paper examines the decision process for new transport infrastructure projects in cross-border regions, where a wide range of stakeholders with different expectation is involved. According to a consequences analysis systemic approach, the relationship of transport infrastructure development, economic system development and stakeholder expectation is analysed. Adopting the on system of system methodological approach, the decision making the framework, variables, inputs and outputs are defined, highlighting the key shareholder’s role and expectations. The application provides the methodology outputs presenting the proposed decision framework for a strategic railway project in north Greece deals with the upgrade of the existing railway corridor connecting Greece, Turkey, and Bulgaria.

Keywords: system of system decision making, managing decisions for transport projects, decision support framework, defining decision process

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Benjamin Legros, Jan Fransoo, Oualid Jouini

Abstract:

This study aims to evaluate street-turn strategies for empty container repositioning in the hinterland. Containers arrive over time at the (importer) consignee, while the demand for containers arises from the (exporter) shipper. A match can be operated between an empty container from the consignee and the load from the shipper. Therefore, we model the system as a double-ended queue with non-zero matching time and a limited number of resources in order to optimize the reposition- ing decisions. We determine the performance measures when the consignee operates using a fixed withholding threshold policy. We show that the matching time mainly plays a role in the matching proportion, while under a certain duration, it only marginally impacts the consignee’s inventory policy and cost per container. Also, the withholding level is mainly determined by the shipper’s production rate.

Keywords: container, double-ended queue, inventory, Markov decision process, non-zero matching time, street-turn

Procedia PDF Downloads 115