Search results for: audit risk model

Authors: Benjamin Bae

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This study investigates the relationship between the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and the performance of banks in a number of Middle East countries. We examine whether performance levels and audit qualities play any role in adopting the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Middle East banks. This study hypothesizes that, in general, banks with high performance and audit quality measures tend to adopt the IFRS than low-performing banks, as the adoption of a new standard takes lots of time and expenses, which could be an additional burden to them. The results show that three hypotheses are strongly supported whereas the cultural factor hypothesis is not. Banks with high ROA and ROE tend to adopt IFRS than low-performing banks. Big banks are also more likely to adopt IFRS than small or medium-sized banks. Contrary to the hypothesis, the Islamic bank status as a cultural factor has some positive impact on the adoption of the banks in the region. Overall, this research adds to our understanding of the bank’s performance. First, evidence on the relationship between the adoption of IFRS and the bank’s performance should be useful to investors. Second, the findings of this study provide financial statement users with useful information about the bank’s performance measures.

Keywords: IFRS, financial performance, audit quality, culture, firm size

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: Divya Pathak, James Sloane

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Surgical treatment of midface fractures should ideally occur within two weeks of injury, after which bony healing and consolidation make the repair more difficult for the operating surgeon. The oral and maxillofacial unit at the Royal Surrey Hospital is the tertiary referral center for maxillofacial trauma from five regional hospitals. This is a complete audit cycle of midface trauma referrals managed over a one year period. The standard set was that clinical assessment of the midface fracture would take place in a consultant led outpatient clinic within 7 days, and when indicated, surgical fixation would occur within 10 days of referral. Retrospective data was collected over one year (01/11/2018 - 31/12/2019). Three key changes were implemented: an IT referral mailbox, standardization of an on-call trauma table, and creation of a trauma theatre list. Re-audit was carried out over six months completing the cycle. 283 midface fracture referrals were received, of which 22 patients needed surgical fixation. The average time from referral to outpatient follow-up improved from 14.5 days to 8.3 days, and time from referral to surgery improved from 21.5 days to 11.6 days. Changes implemented in this audit significantly improved patient prioritization to appropriate outpatient clinics and shortened time to surgical intervention.

Keywords: maxillofacial trauma, midface trauma, oral and maxillofacial surgery, surgery fixation

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Michael Adebayo, Saheed Lawal

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The Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) is the multidimensional tool used to assess elderly, frail patients either on admission to hospital care or at a community level in primary care. It is a tool designed with the aim of using a holistic approach to managing patients. A Cochrane review of CGA use in 2011 found that the likelihood of being alive and living in their own home rises by 30% post-discharge. RCTs have also discovered 10–15% reductions in readmission rates and reductions in institutionalization, and resource use and costs. Past audit cycles at King’s College Hospital, Denmark Hill had shown inconsistent evidence of CGA completion inpatient discharge summaries (less than 50%). Junior Doctors in the Health and Ageing (HAU) wards have struggled to sustain the efforts of past audit cycles due to the quick turnover in staff (four-month placements for trainees). This 7th cycle created a multi-faceted approach to solving this problem amongst staff and creating lasting change. Methods: 1. We adopted multidisciplinary team involvement to support Doctors. MDT staff e.g. Nurses, Physiotherapists, Occupational Therapists and Dieticians, were actively encouraged to fill in the CGA document. 2. We added a CGA Document Pro-forma to “Sunrise EPR” (Trust computer system). These CGAs were to automatically be included the discharge summary. 3. Prior to assessing uptake, we used a spot audit questionnaire to assess staff awareness/knowledge of what a CGA was. 4. We designed and placed posters highlighting domains of CGA and MDT roles suited to each domain on geriatric “Health and Ageing Wards” (HAU) in the hospital. 5. We performed an audit of % discharge summaries which include CGA and MDT role input. 6. We nominated ward champions on each ward from each multidisciplinary specialty to monitor and encourage colleagues to actively complete CGAs. 7. We initiated further education of ward staff on CGA's importance by discussion at board rounds and weekly multidisciplinary meetings. Outcomes: 1. The majority of respondents to our spot audit were aware of what a CGA was, but fewer had used the EPR document to complete one. 2. We found that CGAs were not being commenced for nearly 50% of patients discharged on HAU wards and the Frailty Assessment Unit.

Keywords: comprehensive geriatric assessment, CGA, multidisciplinary team, quality of life, mortality

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Authors: Tony Feng, Rea Thomson, Kathryn Greenslade, Ross Medine, Jennifer Easterbrook, Calum Arthur, Matilda Powell-bowns

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There are clear guidelines on taking group and screen samples (G&S) for elective arthroplasty and major trauma. However, there is limited guidance on blood grouping for other trauma patients. The purpose of this study was to review the level of blood grouping at a major trauma centre and validate a protocol that limits the expensive processing of G&S samples. After reviewing the national guidance on transfusion samples in orthopaedic patients, data was prospectively collected for all orthopaedic admissions in the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh between January to February 2023. The cause of admission, number of G&S samples processed on arrival and need for red cells was collected using the hospital blood bank. A new protocol was devised based on a multidisciplinary meeting which limited the requirement for G&S samples only to presentations in “category X”, including neck-of-femur fractures (NOFs), pelvic fractures and major trauma. A re-audit was completed between April and May after departmental education and institution of this protocol. 759 patients were admitted under orthopaedics in the major trauma centre across two separate months. 47% of patients were admitted with presentations falling in category X (354/759) and patients in this category accounted for 88% (92/104) of those requiring post-operative red cell transfusions. Of these, 51% were attributed to NOFs (47/92). In the initial audit, 50% of trauma patients outwith category X had samples sent (116/230), estimated to cost £3800. Of these 230 patients, 3% required post-operative transfusions (7/230). In the re-audit, 23% of patients outwith category X had samples sent (40/173), estimated to cost £1400, of which 3% (5/173) required transfusions. None of the transfusions in these patients in either audit were related to their operation and the protocol achieved an estimated cost saving of £2400 over one month. This study highlights the importance of sending samples for patients with certain categories of orthopaedic trauma (category X) due to the high demand for post-operative transfusions. However, the absence of transfusion requirements in other presentations suggests over-testing. While implementation of the new protocol has markedly reduced over-testing, additional interventions are required to reduce this further.

Keywords: blood transfusion, quality improvement, orthopaedics, trauma

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Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: B. Marasović, S. Pivac, S. V. Vukasović

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Constructing a portfolio of investments is one of the most significant financial decisions facing individuals and institutions. In accordance with the modern portfolio theory maximization of return at minimal risk should be the investment goal of any successful investor. In addition, the costs incurred when setting up a new portfolio or rebalancing an existing portfolio must be included in any realistic analysis. In this paper rebalancing an investment portfolio in the presence of transaction costs on the Croatian capital market is analyzed. The model applied in the paper is an extension of the standard portfolio mean-variance optimization model in which transaction costs are incurred to rebalance an investment portfolio. This model allows different costs for different securities, and different costs for buying and selling. In order to find efficient portfolio, using this model, first, the solution of quadratic programming problem of similar size to the Markowitz model, and then the solution of a linear programming problem have to be found. Furthermore, in the paper the impact of transaction costs on the efficient frontier is investigated. Moreover, it is shown that global minimum variance portfolio on the efficient frontier always has the same level of the risk regardless of the amount of transaction costs. Although efficient frontier position depends of both transaction costs amount and initial portfolio it can be concluded that extreme right portfolio on the efficient frontier always contains only one stock with the highest expected return and the highest risk.

Keywords: Croatian capital market, Markowitz model, fractional quadratic programming, portfolio optimization, transaction costs

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Authors: T. Suleiman, C. Mchugh, H. Ranu

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Background; Asthma continues to be associated with poor patient outcomes, including mortality. An audit of the management of acute asthma admissions in our hospital in 2020 found poor compliance with National Asthma and COPD Audit Project (NACAP) standards which set out to improve inpatient asthma care. Clinical nurse specialists have been shown to improve patient care across a range of specialties. In September 2021, an asthma Nurse Specialist (ANS) was employed in our hospital. Aim; To re-audit management of acute asthma admissions using NACAP standards and assess for quality improvement post-employment of an ANS. Methodology; NACAP standards are wide-reaching; therefore, we focused on ‘specific elements of good practice’ in addition to the provision of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) on discharge. Medical notes were retrospectively requested from the hospital coding department and selected as per NACAP inclusion criteria. Data collection and entry into the NACAP database were carried out. As this was a clinical audit, ethics approval was not required. Results; Cycle 1 (pre-ANS) and 2 (post-ANS) of the audit included 20 and 32 patients, respectively, with comparable baseline demographics. No patients had a discharge bundle completed on discharge in cycle 1 vs. 84% of cases in cycle 2. Regarding specific components of the bundle, 25% of patients in cycle 1 had their inhaler technique checked vs. 91% in cycle 2. Furthermore, 80% of patients had maintenance medications reviewed in cycle 1 vs. 97% in cycle 2. Medication adherence was addressed in 20% of cases in cycle 1 vs. 88% of cases in cycle 2. Personalized asthma action plans were not issued or reviewed in any cases in cycle 1 as compared with 84% of cases in cycle 2. Triggers were discussed in 30% of cases in cycle 1 vs. 88% of cases in cycle 2. Tobacco dependence was addressed in 44% of cases in cycle 1 vs. 100% of cases in cycle 2. No patients in cycle 1 had community follow-up requested within 2 days vs. 81% of the patients in cycle 2. Similarly, 20% of the patients in cycle 1 vs. 88% of the patients in cycle 2 had a 4-week asthma clinic follow-up requested. 75% of patients in cycle 1 were the recipient of ICS on discharge compared with 94% of patients in cycle 2. Conclusion; Our quality improvement project demonstrates the utility of an ANS in improving performance in the management of acute asthma admissions, evidenced here through concordance with NACAP standards. Asthma is a complex condition with biological, psychological, and sociological components; therefore, ANS is a suitable intervention to improve concordance with guidelines. ANS likely impacted performance directly, for example, by checking inhaler technique, and indirectly as a safety net ensuring doctors included ICS on discharge.

Keywords: asthma, nurse specialist, clinical audit, quality improvement

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Tu Shuyang, Zhang Xu, Zhou Xiang

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The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of short-term heat exchange decay of ground heat exchanger (GHE) on the ground source heat pump (GSHP) energy efficiency and capacity. A resistance-capacitance (RC) model was developed and adopted to simulate the transient characteristics of the ground thermal condition and heat exchange. The capacity change of the GSHP was linked to the inlet and outlet water temperature by polynomial fitting according to measured parameters given by heat pump manufacturers. Thus, the model, which combined the heat exchange decay with the capacity change, reflected the energy efficiency decay of the whole system. A case of GSHP system was analyzed by the model, and the result showed that there was risk that the GSHP might not meet the load demand because of the efficiency decay in a short-term operation. The conclusion would provide some guidances for GSHP system design to overcome the risk.

Keywords: capacity, energy efficiency, GSHP, heat exchange

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Authors: Charlie Jeffkins

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Sickle cell disease is a serious life-limiting condition which can reduce the quality of life for many patients. Public Health England (PHE), in partnership with the Sickle Cell Society (SCS), has created guidelines to prevent severe complications from sickle cell disease. Data was collected from Children’s Hospital for Wales between 15/03/21-26/03/21. Methods: A manual search of patient records for children under the care of Rocket Ward and a key term search of online records was used. Results: Penicillin prophylaxis was given at 90 days for 89%, 77% of TCDs scans were done at 2-3 years, and 72% have had a scan in the last year. 53% of patients have had discussions about hydroxycarbamide, whilst 65% have started it. PPV vaccination was documented for 19%. Conclusion: Overall, none of the four standards were reached; however, TCD uptake has improved. There is a need for better documentation of treatment and annual re-audits.

Keywords: paediatric, haematology, sickle cell, audit

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Anchal Gupta

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Amid the escalating digitalization and deployment of cross-border technological solutions, a significant portion of the industry and regulatory bodies have begun to pose queries concerning the formulation, computation, and contemplation of concentration risk. In the financial sector, well-established parameters exist for gauging the concentration of a portfolio and similar elements. However, a unified framework appears to be absent, which could guide industry and regulators pertaining to non-financial concentration risk. This paper introduces a framework, constructed on the foundation of multiple regulations where regulators are advocating for licensed corporations to evaluate their concentration risk. The lacuna lies in the fact that, while regulators delineate what constitutes concentration risk, unlike other domains, no guidelines are provided that could assist firms. This frequently results in ambiguity and individual corporate interpretation, which, from a risk management standpoint, is less than ideal.

Keywords: concentration risk, non-financial risk, government regulation, financial regulation, non-market risk, MAS, DORA, EDSP, SFC

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Authors: Anupam Sibal

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Apollo Quality Program(AQP) was launched across the Apollo Group of Hospitals to address the four patient safety areas; Safety during Clinical Handovers, Medication Safety, Surgical Safety and the six International Patient Safety Goals(IPSGs) of JCI. A measurable, online, quality dashboard covering 20 process and outcome parameters was devised for monthly monitoring. The expected outcomes were also defined and categorized into green, yellow and red ranges. An audit methodology was also devised to check the processes for the measurable dashboard. Documented clinical handovers were introduced for the first time at many locations for in-house patient transfer, nursing-handover, and physician-handover. Prototype forms using the SBAR format were made. Patient-identifiers, read-back for verbal orders, safety of high-alert medications, site marking and time-outs and falls risk-assessment were introduced for all hospitals irrespective of accreditation status. Measurement of Surgical-Site-Infection (SSI) for 30 days postoperatively, was done. All hospitals now tracked the time of administration of antimicrobial prophylaxis before surgery. Situations with high risk of retention of foreign body were delineated and precautionary measures instituted. Audit of medications prescribed in the discharge summaries was made uniform. Formularies, prescription-audits and other means for reduction of medication errors were implemented. There is a marked increase in the compliance to processes and patient safety outcomes. Compliance to read-back for verbal orders rose from 86.83% in April’11 to 96.95% in June’15, to policy for high alert medications from 87.83% to 98.82%, to use of measures to prevent wrong-site, wrong-patient, wrong procedure surgery from 85.75% to 97.66%, to hand-washing from 69.18% to 92.54%, to antimicrobial prophylaxis within one hour before incision from 79.43% to 93.46%. Percentage of patients excluded from SSI calculation due to lack of follow-up for the requisite time frame decreased from 21.25% to 10.25%. The average AQP scores for all Apollo Hospitals improved from 62 in April’11 to 87.7 in Jun’15.

Keywords: clinical handovers, international patient safety goals, medication safety, surgical safety

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Authors: Reza Heidari, Maryam Amiri

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In a technological world, many countries have a tendency to fortifying their companies and technological infrastructures. Also, one of the most important requirements for developing technology is innovation, and then, all companies are struggling to consider innovation as a basic principle. Since, the expansion of a product need to combine different technologies, therefore, different innovative projects would be run in the firms as a base of technology development. In such an environment, enterprise resource planning (ERP) has special significance in order to develop and strengthen of innovations. In this article, an economic-probabilistic analysis was provided to perform an implementation project of ERP in the technological innovation (TI) based firms. The used model in this article assesses simultaneously both risk and economic analysis in view of the probability of each event that is jointly between economical approach and risk investigation approach. To provide an economic-probabilistic analysis of risk of the project, activities and milestones in the cash flow were extracted. Also, probability of occurrence of each of them was assessed. Since, Resources planning in an innovative firm is the object of this project. Therefore, we extracted various risks that are in relation with innovative project and then they were evaluated in the form of cash flow. This model, by considering risks affecting the project and the probability of each of them and assign them to the project's cash flow categories, presents an adjusted cash flow based on Net Present Value (NPV) and with probabilistic simulation approach. Indeed, this model presented economic analysis of the project based on risks-adjusted. Then, it measures NPV of the project, by concerning that these risks which have the most effect on technological innovation projects, and in the following measures probability associated with the NPV for each category. As a result of application of presented model in the information and communication technology (ICT) industry, provided an appropriate analysis of feasibility of the project from the point of view of cash flow based on risk impact on the project. Obtained results can be given to decision makers until they can practically have a systematically analysis of the possibility of the project with an economic approach and as moderated.

Keywords: cash flow categorization, economic evaluation, probabilistic, risk assessment, technological innovation

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Authors: Lina Najafian, Hamidreza Vakilifard

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The present study focused on the relationship between the quality of accruals and non-systematic risk. The independent study variables included the ability of accruals, the information content of accruals, and amount of discretionary accruals considered as accruals quality measures. The dependent variable was non-systematic risk based on the Fama and French Three Factor model (FFTFM) and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The control variables were firm size, financial leverage, stock return, cash flow fluctuations, and book-to-market ratio. The data collection method was based on library research and document mining including financial statements. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data. The study results showed that there is a significant direct relationship between financial leverage and discretionary accruals and non-systematic risk based on FFTFM and CAPM. There is also a significant direct relationship between the ability of accruals, information content of accruals, firm size, and stock return and non-systematic based on both models. It was also found that there is no relationship between book-to-market ratio and cash flow fluctuations and non-systematic risk.

Keywords: accruals quality, non-systematic risk, CAPM, FFTFM

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Authors: Haroon Mahmood, Christopher Gan, Cuong Nguyen

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Maturity transformation risk is highlighted as one of the major causes of recent global financial crisis. Basel III has proposed new liquidity regulations for transformation function of banks and hence to monitor this risk. Specifically, net stable funding ratio (NSFR) is introduced to enhance medium- and long-term resilience against liquidity shocks. Islamic banking is widely accepted in many parts of the world and contributes to a significant portion of the financial sector in many countries. Using a dataset of 68 fully fledged Islamic banks from 11 different countries, over a period from 2005 – 2014, this study has attempted to analyze various factors that may significantly affect the maturity transformation risk in these banks. We utilize 2-step system GMM estimation technique on unbalanced panel and find bank capital, credit risk, financing, size and market power are most significant among the bank specific factors. Also, gross domestic product and inflation are the significant macro-economic factors influencing this risk. However, bank profitability, asset efficiency, and income diversity are found insignificant in determining the maturity transformation risk in Islamic banking model.

Keywords: Basel III, Islamic banking, maturity transformation risk, net stable funding ratio

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Authors: Anders Troedsson

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For us humans, risks are intimately linked to human vulnerabilities - where there is vulnerability, there is potentially insecurity, and risk. Reducing vulnerability through compensatory measures means increasing security and decreasing risk. The paper suggests that a meaningful way to approach the study of risks (including threats, assaults, crisis etc.), is to understand the vulnerabilities these external phenomena evoke in humans. As is argued, the basis of risk evaluation, as well as responses, is the more or less subjective perception by the individual person, or a group of persons, exposed to the external event or phenomena in question. This will be determined primarily by the vulnerability or vulnerabilities that the external factor are perceived to evoke. In this way, risk perception is primarily an inward dynamic, rather than an outward one. Therefore, a route towards an understanding of the perception of risks, is a closer scrutiny of the vulnerabilities which they can evoke, thereby approaching an understanding of what in the paper is called the essence of risk (including threat, assault etc.), or that which a certain perceived risk means to an individual or group of individuals. As a necessary basis for gauging the wide spectrum of potential risks and their meaning, the paper proposes a model of human vulnerabilities, drawing from i.a. a long tradition of needs theory. In order to account for the subjectivity factor, which mediates between the innate vulnerabilities on the one hand, and the event or phenomenon out there on the other hand, an ensuing ontological discussion about the timespace characteristics of risk/threat/assault as perceived by humans leads to the positing of two dimensions. These two dimensions are applied on the vulnerabilities, resulting in a modelling effort featuring four realms of vulnerabilities which are related to each other and together represent a dynamic whole. In approaching the problem of risk perception, the paper thus defines the relevant realms of vulnerabilities, depicting them as a dynamic whole. With reference to a substantial body of literature and a growing international policy trend since the 1990s, this model is put in the language of human security - a concept relevant not only for international security studies and policy, but also for other academic disciplines and spheres of human endeavor.

Keywords: human security, timespace, vulnerabilities, risk perception

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Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

Abstract:

As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

Abstract:

The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

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Authors: A. Duncan, A. Blake, A. O'Gara, J. Fitzgerald

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Introduction: Acute traumatic rib fractures have significant morbidity and mortality and are a commonly seen injury in trauma patients. Rib fracture pain can often be acute and can prove challenging to manage. We performed an audit on patients with acute traumatic rib fractures with the aim of composing a referral and treatment pathway for such patients. Methods: From January 2021 to January 2022, the pain medicine service encouraged early referral of all traumatic rib fractures to the pain service for a multi-modal management approach. A retrospective audit of analgesic management was performed on a select cohort of 24 patients, with a mean age of 67, of which 19 had unilateral rib fractures. Results: 17 of 24 patients (71%) underwent local, regional block as part of a multi-modal analgesia regime. Only one regional complication was observed, seen with hypotension occurring in one patient with a thoracic epidural. The group who did not undergo regional block had a length of stay (LOS) 17 days longer than those who did (27 vs. 10) and higher rates of pneumonia (29% vs. 18%). Conclusion: Early referral to pain specialists is an important component of the effective management of acute traumatic rib fractures. From our audit, it is evident that regional blocks can be effectively used in these cases as part of a multi-modal analgesia regime and may confer benefits in terms of respiratory complications and length of stay.

Keywords: rib fractures, regional blocks, thoracic epidural, erector spina block

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

Abstract:

The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

Procedia PDF Downloads 522