Search results for: land use land cover change
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 9354

Search results for: land use land cover change

7044 Identification of Rainfall Trends in Qatar

Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Ataur Rahman

Abstract:

Due to climate change, future rainfall will change at many locations on earth; however, the spatial and temporal patterns of this change are not easy to predict. One approach of predicting such future changes is to examine the trends in the historical rainfall data at a given region and use the identified trends to make future prediction. For this, a statistical trend test is commonly applied to the historical data. This paper examines the trends of daily extreme rainfall events from 30 rain gauges located in the State of Qatar. Rainfall data covering from 1962 to 2011 were used in the analysis. A combination of four non-parametric and parametric tests was applied to identify trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. These tests are Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho (SR), Linear Regression (LR) and CUSUM tests. These tests showed both positive and negative trends throughout the country. Only eight stations showed positive (upward) trend, which were however not statistically significant. In contrast, significant negative (downward) trends were found at the 5% and 10% levels of significance in six stations. The MK, SR and LR tests exhibited very similar results. This finding has important implications in the derivation/upgrade of design rainfall for Qatar, which will affect design and operation of future urban drainage infrastructure in Qatar.

Keywords: trends, extreme rainfall, daily rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, climate change, Qatar

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7043 Impact of Agroforestry Practices on Biodiversity Management and Livelihoods of Communities Adjacent Magamba Nature Reserve(MNR), Tanzania

Authors: P. J. Kagosi, M. Mndolwa, E. Japhate

Abstract:

The study was conducted to communities adjacent MNR, Lushoto district, Tanzania. The MNR is one of the nine nature reserves in the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania with an area of 8,700ha with high biological diversity. However, biodiversity in MNR have been threatened by increasing human activities for livelihood in 1970s. The AF systems in the study area was practised since 1980s however, no study was conducted on AF impacts. This paper presents the influence of AF on livelihood of communities adjacent MNR and biodiversity conservation. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected using socio-economic survey and botanical surveys. Data were analysed using Statistical Packages for Social Sciences and content analysis. The study found that in 1970s free livestock grazing caused considerable surface runoff, soil erosion and reduction of crop production. Since 1980s, the study area received various interventions based on the land conservations and improved livelihood through practising AF systems. It was further found that the AF farming improved crop productivity, reduced soil erosion, increased firewood (80.2%) and other forest products availability and AF encouraged community members practicing indoor livestock keeping.The dominant agroforestry tree found in the study area is grevillea reported by 74.1% of respondents planting an average of 40 trees. The study found that the AF reduced pressure to MNR as forest products and fodders were obtained from community's farms in turn, currently water flow from MNR has been increased. Thus AF products support livelihood needs and conserve biodiversity. The study recommends continuity education on new AF technology packages.

Keywords: impact of agroforestry, biodiversity management, communities’ livelihoods, Magamba nature reserve

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7042 Planning for Enviromental and Social Sustainability in Coastal Areas: A Case of Alappad

Authors: K. Vrinda

Abstract:

Coastal ecosystems across the world are facing a lot of challenges due to natural phenomena as well as from uncontrolled human interventions. Here, Alappad, a coastal island situated in Kerala, India is undergoing significant damage and is gradually losing its environmental and social sustainability. The area is blessed with very rare and precious black mineral sand deposits. Sand mining for these minerals started in 1911 and is still continuing. But, unfortunately all the problems that Alappad faces now, have its root on mining of this mineral sand. The land area is continuously diminishing due to sea erosion. The mining has also caused displacement of people and environmental degradation. Marine life also is getting affected by mining on beach and pollution. The inhabitants are fishermen who are largely dependent on the eco-system for a living. So loss of environmental sustainability subsequently affects social sustainability too. Now the damage has reached a point beyond which our actions may not be able to make any impact. This was one of the most affected areas of the 2004 tsunami and the environmental degradation has further increased the vulnerability. So this study focuses on understanding the concerns related to the resource utilization, environment and the indigenous community staying there, and on formulating suitable strategies to restore the sustainability of the area. An extensive study was conducted on site, to find out the physical, social, and economical characteristics of the area. A focus group discussion with the inhabitants shed light on different issues they face in their day-to-day life. The analysis of all these data, led to the formation of a new development vision for the area which focuses on environmental restoration and socio-economic development while allowing controlled exploitation of resources. A participatory approach is formulated which enables these three aspects through community based programs.

Keywords: Community development, Disaster resilience, Ecological restoration, Environmental sustainability, Social-environmental planning, Social Sustainability

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7041 Investigation of Attitude of Production Workers towards Job Rotation in Automotive Industry against the Background of Demographic Change

Authors: Franciska Weise, Ralph Bruder

Abstract:

Due to the demographic change in Germany along with the declining birth rate and the increasing age of population, the share of older people in society is rising. This development is also reflected in the work force of German companies. Therefore companies should focus on improving ergonomics, especially in the area of age-related work design. Literature shows that studies on age-related work design have been carried out in the past, some of whose results have been put into practice. However, there is still a need for further research. One of the most important methods for taking into account the needs of an aging population is job rotation. This method aims at preventing or reducing health risks and inappropriate physical strain. It is conceived as a systematic change of workplaces within a group. Existing literature does not cover any methods for the investigation of the attitudes of employees towards job rotation. However, in order to evaluate job rotation, it is essential to have knowledge of the views of people towards rotation. In addition to an investigation of attitudes, the design of rotation plays a crucial role. The sequence of activities and the rotation frequency influence the worker and as well the work result. The evaluation of preliminary talks on the shop floor showed that team speakers and foremen share a common understanding of job rotation. In practice, different varieties of job rotation exist. One important aspect is the frequency of rotation. It is possible to rotate never, more than one time or even during every break, or more often than every break. It depends on the opportunity or possibility to rotate whenever workers want to rotate. From the preliminary talks some challenges can be derived. For example a rotation in the whole team is not possible, if a team member requires to be trained for a new task. In order to be able to determine the relation of the design and the attitude towards job rotation, a questionnaire is carried out in the vehicle manufacturing. The questionnaire will be employed to determine the different varieties of job rotation that exist in production, as well as the attitudes of workers towards those different frequencies of job rotation. In addition, younger and older employees will be compared with regard to their rotation frequency and their attitudes towards rotation. There are three kinds of age groups. Three questions are under examination. The first question is whether older employees rotate less frequently than younger employees. Also it is investigated to know whether the frequency of job rotation and the attitude towards the frequency of job rotation are interconnected. Moreover, the attitudes of the different age groups towards the frequency of rotation will be examined. Up to now 144 employees, all working in production, took part in the survey. 36.8 % were younger than thirty, 37.5 % were between thirty und forty-four and 25.7 % were above forty-five years old. The data shows no difference between the three age groups in relation to the frequency of job rotation (N=139, median=4, Chi²=.859, df=2, p=.651). Most employees rotate between six and seven workplaces per day. In addition there is a statistically significant correlation between the frequency of job rotation and the attitude towards the frequency (Spearman-Rho: 2-sided=.008, correlation coefficient=.223). Less than four workplaces per day are not enough for the employees. The third question, which differences can be found between older and younger people who rotate in a different way and with different attitudes towards job rotation, cannot be possible answered. Till now the data shows that younger people would like to rotate very often. Regarding to older people no correlation can be found with acceptable significance. The results of the survey will be used to improve the current practice of job rotation. In addition, the discussions during the survey are expected to help sensitize the employees with respect to rotation issues, and to contribute to optimizing rotation by means of qualification and an improved design of job rotation. Together with the employees and the results of the survey there must be found standards which show how to rotate in an ergonomic way while consider the attitude towards job rotation.

Keywords: job rotation, age-related work design, questionnaire, automotive industry

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7040 Expert Solutions to Affordable Housing Finance Challenges in Developing Economies

Authors: Timothy Akinwande, Eddie C. M. Hui

Abstract:

Housing the urban poor has remained a challenge for many years across the world, especially in developing economies, despite the apparent research attention and policy interventions. It is apt to investigate the prevalent affordable housing (AH) provision challenges using unconventional approaches. It is pragmatic to thoroughly examine housing experts to provide supply-side solutions to AH challenges and investigate informal settlers to deduce solutions from AH demand viewpoints. This study being the supply-side investigation of an ongoing research, interrogated housing experts to determine significant expert solutions. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews were conducted with housing experts in Nigeria. Through descriptive, content, and systematic thematic analyses of data, major findings are that deliberate finance models designed for the urban poor are the most significant housing finance solution in developing economies. Other findings are that adequately implemented rent control policies, deliberate PPP approaches like inclusionary housing and land-value capture, and urban renewal programmes to enlighten and tutor the urban poor on how to earn more, spend wisely, and invest in their own better housing will effectively solve AH finance challenges. Study findings are informative for the best approaches to achieve effective, affordable housing finance for the urban poor in Nigeria, which is indispensable for the achievement of sustainable development goals. This research’s originality lies in the exploration of experts’ opinions in relation to AH finance to produce an equation model of critical solutions to AH finance challenges. Study data are useful resources for future pro-poor housing studies. This study makes housing policy-oriented recommendations toward effective, affordable housing for the urban poor in developing countries.

Keywords: affordable housing, effective affordable housing, housing policy, housing research, sustainable development, urban poor

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7039 Comparison of Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Network Classifiers in Characterizing Threatened Tree Species Using Eight Bands of WorldView-2 Imagery in Dukuduku Landscape, South Africa

Authors: Galal Omer, Onisimo Mutanga, Elfatih M. Abdel-Rahman, Elhadi Adam

Abstract:

Threatened tree species (TTS) play a significant role in ecosystem functioning and services, land use dynamics, and other socio-economic aspects. Such aspects include ecological, economic, livelihood, security-based, and well-being benefits. The development of techniques for mapping and monitoring TTS is thus critical for understanding the functioning of ecosystems. The advent of advanced imaging systems and supervised learning algorithms has provided an opportunity to classify TTS over fragmenting landscape. Recently, vegetation maps have been produced using advanced imaging systems such as WorldView-2 (WV-2) and robust classification algorithms such as support vectors machines (SVM) and artificial neural network (ANN). However, delineation of TTS in a fragmenting landscape using high resolution imagery has widely remained elusive due to the complexity of the species structure and their distribution. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to examine the utility of the advanced WV-2 data for mapping TTS in the fragmenting Dukuduku indigenous forest of South Africa using SVM and ANN classification algorithms. The results showed the robustness of the two machine learning algorithms with an overall accuracy (OA) of 77.00% (total disagreement = 23.00%) for SVM and 75.00% (total disagreement = 25.00%) for ANN using all eight bands of WV-2 (8B). This study concludes that SVM and ANN classification algorithms with WV-2 8B have the potential to classify TTS in the Dukuduku indigenous forest. This study offers relatively accurate information that is important for forest managers to make informed decisions regarding management and conservation protocols of TTS.

Keywords: artificial neural network, threatened tree species, indigenous forest, support vector machines

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7038 Carbon Stock of the Moist Afromontane Forest in Gesha and Sayilem Districts in Kaffa Zone: An Implication for Climate Change Mitigation

Authors: Admassu Addi, Sebesebe Demissew, Teshome Soromessa, Zemede Asfaw

Abstract:

This study measures the carbon stock of the Moist Afromontane Gesha-Sayilem forest found in Gesha and Sayilem District in southwest Ethiopia. A stratified sampling method was used to identify the number of sampling point through the Global Positioning System. A total of 90 plots having nested plots to collect tree species and soil data were demarcated. The results revealed that the total carbon stock of the forest was 362.4 t/ha whereas the above ground carbon stock was 174.95t/ha, below ground litter, herbs, soil, and dead woods were 34.3,1.27, 0.68, 128 and 23.2 t/ha (up to 30 cm depth) respectively. The Gesha- Sayilem Forest is a reservoir of high carbon and thus acts as a great sink of the atmospheric carbon. Thus conservation of the forest through introduction REDD+ activities is considered an appropriate action for mitigating climate change.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, carbon stock, climate change, allometric, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 155
7037 Alternate Methods to Visualize 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Result

Authors: Hong Beom Hur

Abstract:

Politics in America is polarized. The best illustration of this is the 2016 presidential election result map. States with megacities like California, New York, Illinois, Virginia, and others are marked blue to signify the color of the Democratic party. States located in inland and south like Texas, Florida, Tennesse, Kansas and others are marked red to signify the color of the Republican party. Such a stark difference between two colors, red and blue, combined with geolocations of each state with their borderline remarks one central message; America is divided into two colors between urban Democrats and rural Republicans. This paper seeks to defy the visualization by pointing out its limitations and search for alternative ways to visualize the 2016 election result. One such limitation is that geolocations of each state and state borderlines limit the visualization of population density. As a result, the election result map does not convey the fact that Clinton won the popular vote and only accentuates the voting patterns of urban and rural states. The paper seeks whether an alternative narrative can be observed by factoring in the population number into the size of each state and manipulating the state borderline according to the normalization. Yet another alternative narrative may be reached by factoring the size of each state by the number of the electoral college of each state by voting and visualize the number. Other alternatives will be discussed but are not implemented in visualization. Such methods include dividing the land of America into about 120 million cubes each representing a voter or by the number of whole population 300 million cubes. By exploring these alternative methods to visualize the politics of the 2016 election map, the public may be able to question whether it is possible to be free from the narrative of the divide-conquer when interpreting the election map and to look at both parties as a story of the United States of America.

Keywords: 2016 U.S. presidential election, data visualization, population scale, geo-political

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7036 Development of Functional Cosmetic Materials from Demilitarized Zone Habiting Plants

Authors: Younmin Shin, Jin Kyu Kim, Mirim Jin, Jeong June Choi

Abstract:

Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) is a peace region located between South and North Korea border to avoid accidental armed conflict. Because human accessing to the area was forced to be prohibited for more than 60 years, DMZ is one of the cleanest land keeping wild lives as nature itself in South Korea. In this study, we evaluated the biological efficacies of plants (SS, PC, and AR) inhabiting in DMZ for the development of functional cosmetics. First, we tested the cytotoxicity of plant extracts in keratinocyte and melanocyte, which are the major cell components of skin. By 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay with the cell lines, we determined the safety concentrations of the extracts for the efficacy tests. Next, we assessed the anti-wrinkle cosmetic function of SS by demonstrating that SS treatment decreased the expression of Matrix metalloproteinase-1 (MMP-1) in UV-irradiated keratinocytes via real-time PCR. The suppressive effect of SS was greatly potentiated by combination with other DMZ-inhabiting plants, PC and AR. The expression of tyrosinase, which is one the main enzyme that producing melanin in melanocyte, was also down-regulated by the DMZ-inhabiting SS extract. Wound healing activity was also investigated by in vitro test with HaCat cell line, a human fibroblast cell line. All the natural materials extracted form DMZ habiting plants accelerated the recovery of the cells. These results suggested that DMZ is a treasure island of functional plants and DMZ-inhabiting natural products are warranted to develop functional cosmetic materials. This study was carried out with the support of R&D Program for Forest Science Technology (Project No. 2017027A00-1819-BA01) provided by Korea Forest Service (Korea Forestry Promotion Institute).

Keywords: anti-wrinkle, Demilitarized Zone, functional cosmetics, whitening

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7035 Market Chain Analysis of Onion: The Case of Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Belayneh Yohannes

Abstract:

In Ethiopia, onion production is increasing from time to time mainly due to its high profitability per unit area. Onion has a significant contribution to generating cash income for farmers in the Raya Azebo district. Therefore, enhancing onion producers’ access to the market and improving market linkage is an essential issue. Hence, this study aimed to analyze structure-conduct-performance of onion market and identifying factors affecting the market supply of onion producers. Data were collected from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 150 farm households and 20 traders. Four onion marketing channels were identified in the study area. The highest total gross margin is 27.6 in channel IV. The highest gross marketing margin of producers of the onion market is 88% in channel II. The result from the analysis of market concentration indicated that the onion market is characterized by a strong oligopolistic market structure, with the buyers’ concentration ratio of 88.7 in Maichew town and 82.7 in Mekelle town. Lack of capital, licensing problems, and seasonal supply was identified as the major entry barrier to onion marketing. Market conduct shows that the price of onion is set by traders while producers are price takers. Multiple linear regression model results indicated that family size in adult equivalent, irrigated land size, access to information, frequency of extension contact, and ownership of transport significantly determined the quantity of onion supplied to the market. It is recommended that strengthening and diversifying extension services in information, marketing, post-harvest handling, irrigation application, and water harvest technology is highly important.

Keywords: oligopoly, onion, market chain, multiple linear regression

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7034 Urban Sprawl: A Case Study of Suryapet Town in Nalgonda District of Telangana State, a Geoinformatic Approach

Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar

Abstract:

Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization

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7033 Quantification of Pollution Loads for the Rehabilitation of Pusu River

Authors: Abdullah Al-Mamun, Md. Nuruzzaman, Md. Noor Salleh, Muhammad Abu Eusuf, Ahmad Jalal Khan Chowdhury, Mohd. Zaki M. Amin, Norlida Mohd. Dom

Abstract:

Identification of pollution sources and determination of pollution loads from all areas are very important for sustainable rehabilitation of any contaminated river. Pusu is a small river which, flows through the main campus of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) at Gombak. Poor aesthetics of the river, which is flowing through the entrance of the campus, gives negative impression to the local and international visitors. As such, this study is being conducted to find ways to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner. The point and non-point pollution sources of the river basin are identified. Upper part of the 12.6 km2 river basin is covered with secondary forest. However, it is the lower-middle reaches of the river basin which is being cleared for residential development and source of high sediment load. Flow and concentrations of the common pollutants, important for a healthy river, such as Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Suspended Solids (SS), Turbidity, pH, Ammoniacal Nitrogen (AN), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) are determined. Annual pollution loading to the river was calculated based on the primary and secondary data. Concentrations of SS were high during the rainy day due to contribution from the non-point sources. There are 7 ponds along the river system within the campus, which are severely affected by high sediment load from the land clearing activities. On the other hand, concentrations of other pollutants were high during the non-rainy days. The main sources of point pollution are the hostels, cafeterias, sewage treatment plants located in the campus. Therefore, both pollution sources need to be controlled in order to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner.

Keywords: river pollution, rehabilitation, point pollution source, non-point pollution sources, pollution loading

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7032 Effective Environmental Planning Management (EPM) as Panacea to Sustainable Urban Development

Authors: Jegede Kehinde Jacob, Ola Akeem Bayonle, Adewale Yemi Yekeen

Abstract:

The rapid rate of urban growth in most developing countries of the world in recent times is alarming. Mass movement of people from rural areas to the urban centres, the consequence of the uncontrolled rapid urbanisation resulting to many un-conforming environmental challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, land, water and air pollution, poor environmental sanitation, poor and inadequate housing, urban degradation, sprawl and slums, urban violence, crime, robbery and prostitution as well as many other social vices that make the cities unsustainable. The resultant effects of all these are abysmal failure in the management of cities on the part of the governing authorities and other relevant stakeholders as well as unconducive and unwholesome condition of living of the people. This paper attempts to examine holistically the issue of environmental planning management (EPM) process development and management concept with a view for dynamic and interactive approach for various stakeholders as partners in achieving sustainable cities of our dream. The areas of discussion including conceptual and contextual issues, sustainable cities concept, good urban governance including literature review. The paper goes further to examine opportunities and challenges of built environment generally, the nature and context of environmental problems in particular, the role and duties of environmental planning and management (EPM) process in sustainable urban development. The paper further reviewed briefly the various levels of institutionalisation of EPM process with a typical case study of sustainable Ibadan project (SIP). The paper concludes with a list of recommendations to ensure effective and lasting solutions to cities problems through initiation of EPM process achievable in a sustainable manner.

Keywords: built environment, environmental planning, sustainable cities, sustainable development, urbanization

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7031 Cost Benefit Analysis of Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Options among Rural Rice Farmers in Nepal

Authors: Niranjan Devkota , Ram Kumar Phuya, Durga Lal Shreshta

Abstract:

This paper estimates cost and benefit of adoption of climate change adaptation options available to the rural rice farmers of Nepal. Adoption of adaptation strategies, intensity of use of adaptation options, identification of labor and non-labor cost and finally per unit cost and benefit analysis of climate change adaptation were made. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to source respondents for the study and used structured questionnaire techniques to collect data from 773 households from seven districts; 3 from Terai and 4 from Hilly region of Nepal. The result revealed that there are 13 major adaptation options rice farmers practice in order to protect themselves from climatic risk. Among the given adaptation options, the first three popular adaptation options practiced by rice farmers are (i) increasing use of chemical fertilizer (60.93%) (ii) use of climate smart verities (49.29%) and (iii) change in nursery date (32.08%). Adaptation cost is obvious, based on that, the first three costly adaptation options are the alternative irrigation practice which incurred average cost of US $69.95 (US$ 1 = 102.84 Nepalese Rupees) followed by a denser plantation of local seeds ($ 20.69) and using climate smart varieties ($ 18.06). 88% farmers practiced more than one adaptation strategies on the same farm with the aim of reducing the effect of extreme climatic conditions. Total cost and revenue revealed that per unit total cost ranges from $28.34 to $32.79 whereas per unit total revenue ranges $33.4 to $49.02. Surprisingly, it is observed that farmers who do not adopt any adaptation options are able to receive highest income from per unit production. As Net Present Value (NPV) is positive and Benefit Cost Ration (BCR) is greater than one for every adaptation options that indicates the available adaptation options are profitable to the rice farmers.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation options, cost benefit analysis, rural rice farmers, Nepal

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7030 Physical Dynamics of Planet Earth and Their Implications for Global Climate Change and Mitigation: A Case Study of Sistan Plain, Balochistan Region, Southeastern Iran

Authors: Hamidoddin Yousefi, Ahmad Nikbakht

Abstract:

The Sistan Plain, situated in the Balochistan region of southeastern Iran, is renowned for its arid climatic conditions and prevailing winds that persist for approximately 120 days annually. The region faces multiple challenges, including drought susceptibility, exacerbated by wind erosion, temperature fluctuations, and the influence of policies implemented by neighboring Afghanistan and Iran. This study focuses on investigating the characteristics of jet streams within the Sistan Plain and their implications for global climate change. Various models are employed to analyze convective mass fluxes, horizontal moisture transport, temporal variance, and the calculation of radiation convective equilibrium within the atmosphere. Key considerations encompass the distribution of relative humidity, dry air, and absolute humidity. Moreover, the research aims to predict the interplay between jet streams and human activities, particularly regarding their environmental impacts and water scarcity. The investigation encompasses both local and global environmental consequences, drawing upon historical climate change data and comprehensive field research. The anticipated outcomes of this study hold substantial potential for mitigating global climate change and its associated environmental ramifications. By comprehending the dynamics of jet streams and their interconnections with human activities, effective strategies can be formulated to address water scarcity and minimize environmental degradation.

Keywords: Sistani plain, Baluchistan, Hamoun lake, climate change, jet streams, environmental impact, water scarcity, mitigation

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7029 Review of Published Articles on Climate Change and Health in Two Francophone Newspapers: 1990-2015

Authors: Mathieu Hemono, Sophie Puig-Malet, Patrick Zylberman, Avner Bar-Hen, Rainer Sauerborn, Stefanie Schütte, Niamh Herlihi, Antoine Flahault et Anneliese Depoux

Abstract:

Since the IPCC released its first report in 1990, an increasing number of peer-reviewed publications have reported the health risks associated with climate change. Although there is a large body of evidence supporting the association between climate change and poor health outcomes, the media is inconsistent in the attention it pays to the subject matter. This study aims to analyze the modalities and rhetoric in the media concerning the impact of climate change on health in order to better understand its role in information dissemination. A review was conducted of articles published between 1990 and 2015 in the francophone newspapers Le Monde and Jeune Afrique. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the newspapers’ online databases. 1202 articles were identified as having referenced the terms climate change and health. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to narrow the search to articles referencing the effects of climate change on human health and 160 articles were included in the final analysis. Data was extracted and categorized to create a structured database allowing for further investigation and analysis. The review indicated that although 66% of the selected newspaper articles reference scientific evidence of the impact of climate change on human health, the focus on the topic is limited major political events or is circumstances relating to public health crises. Main findings also include that among the many direct and indirect health outcomes, infectious diseases are the main health outcome highlighted in association with climate change. Lastly, the articles suggest that while developed countries have caused most of the greenhouse effect, the global south is more immediately affected. Overall, the reviewed articles reinforce the need for international cooperation in finding a solution to mitigate the effects of climate change on health. The manner in which scientific results are communicated and disseminated, impact individual and collective perceptions of the topic in the public sphere and affect political will to shape policy. The results of this analysis will underline the modalities of the rhetoric of transparency and provide the basis for a perception study of media discourses. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate changes and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, health impacts, communication, media, rhetoric, awareness, Global South, Africa

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7028 Examining Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions of Climate Change and Barriers to Strategic Adaptation in Todee District, Liberia

Authors: Joe Dorbor Wuokolo

Abstract:

Thousands of smallholder farmers in Todee District, Montserrado county, are currently vulnerable to the negative impact of climate change. The district, which is the agricultural hot spot for the county, is faced with unfavorable changes in the daily temperature due to climate change. Farmers in the district have observed a dramatic change in the ratio of rainfall to sunshine, which has caused a chilling effect on their crop yields. However, there is a lack of documentation regarding how farmers perceive and respond to these changes and challenges. A study was conducted in the region to examine the perceptions of smallholder farmers regarding the negative impact of climate change, the adaptation strategies practice, and the barriers that hinder the process of advancing adaptation strategy. On purpose, a sample of 41 respondents from five towns was selected, including five town chiefs, five youth leaders, five women leaders, and sixteen community members. Women and youth leaders were specifically chosen to provide gender balance and enhance the quality of the investigation. Additionally, to validate the barriers farmers face during adaptation to climate change, this study interviewed eight experts from local and international organizations and government ministries and agencies involved in climate change and agricultural programs on what they perceived as the major barrier in both local and national level that impede farmers adaptation to climate change impact. SPSS was used to code the data, and descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data. The weighted average index (WAI) was used to rank adaptation strategies and the perceived importance of adaptation practices among farmers. On a scale from 0 to 3, 0 indicates the least important technique, and 3 indicates the most effective technique. In addition, the Problem Confrontation Index (PCI) was used to rank the barriers that prevented farmers from implementing adaptation measures. According to the findings, approximately 60% of all respondents considered the use of irrigation systems to be the most effective adaptation strategy, with drought-resistant varieties making up 30% of the total. Additionally, 80% of respondents placed a high value on drought-resistant varieties, while 63% percent placed it on irrigation practices. In addition, 78% of farmers ranked and indicated that unpredictability of the weather is the most significant barrier to their adaptation strategies, followed by the high cost of farm inputs and lack of access to financing facilities. 80% of respondents believe that the long-term changes in precipitation (rainfall) and temperature (hotness) are accelerating. This suggests that decision-makers should adopt policies and increase the capacity of smallholder farmers to adapt to the negative impact of climate change in order to ensure sustainable food production.

Keywords: adaptation strategies, climate change, farmers’ perception, smallholder farmers

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7027 Anti-Oxidant and Anti-Cancer Activity of Helix aspersa Aqueous Extract

Authors: Ibtissem El Ouar, Cornelia Braicu, Dalila Naimi, Alexendru Irimie, Ioana Berindan-Neagoe

Abstract:

Helix aspersa, 'the garden snail' is a big land snail widely found in the Mediterranean countries, it is one of the most consumed species in the west of Algeria. It is commonly used in zootherapy to purify blood and to treat cardiovascular diseases and liver problems. The aim of our study is to investigate, the antitumor activity of an aqueous extract from Helix aspersa prepared by the traditional method on Hs578T; a triple negative breast cancer cell line. Firstly, the free radical scavenging activity of H. aspersa extract was assessed by measuring its capability for scavenging the radical 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH), as well as its ability to reduce ferric ion by the FRAP assay (ferric reducing ability). The cytotoxic effect of H. aspersa extract against Hs578T cells was evaluated by the MTT test (3-(4,5- dimethylthiazl-2-yl)-2,5- diphenyltetrazolium bromide)) while the mode of cell death induced by the extract has been determined by fluorescence microscopy using acredine orange/ethidium bromide (AO/EB) probe. The level of TNFα has also measured in cell medium by ELISA method. The results suggest that H. aspersa extract has an antioxidant activity, especially at high concentrations, it can reduce DPPH radical and ferric ion. The MTT test shows that H. aspersa extract has a great cytotoxic effect against breast cancer cells, the IC50 value correspond of the dilution 1% of the crude extract. Moreover, the AO/EB staining shows that TNFα induced necrosis is the main form of cell death induced by the extract. In conclusion, the present study may open new perspectives in the search for new natural anticancer drugs.

Keywords: breast cancer, Helix aspersa, Hs578t cell line, necrosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 412
7026 Willingness of Spanish Wineries to Implement Renewable Energies in Their Vineyards and Wineries, as Well as the Limitations They Perceive for Their Implementation

Authors: Javier Carroquino, Nieves García-Casarejos, Pilar Gargallo

Abstract:

Climate change, depletion of non-renewable resources in the current energies, pollution from them, the greater ecological awareness of the population, are factors that suggest the change of energy sources in business. The agri-food industry is a growth sector, concerned about product innovation, process and with a clear awareness of what climate change may mean for it. This sector is supposed to have a high receptivity to the implementation of clean energy, as this favors not only the environment but also the essence of its business. This work, through surveys, aims to know the willingness of Spanish wineries to implement renewable energies in their vineyards, as well as the limitations they perceive for their implementation. This questionnaire allows the characterization of the sector in terms of its geographical typologies, their activity levels, their perception of environmental issues, the degree of implementation of measures to mitigate climate change and improve energy efficiency, and its uses and energy consumption. The analysis of data proves that the penetration of renewable energies is still at low levels, being the most used energies, solar thermal, photovoltaic and biomass. The initial investment seems to be at the origin of the lack of implantation of this type of energy in the wineries, and not so much the costs of operations and maintenance. The environmental management of the wineries is still at an embryonic stage within the company's organization chart, because these services are either outsourced or, if technicians are available, they are not exclusively dedicated to these tasks. However, there is a strong environmental awareness, as evidenced by the number of climate change mitigation and energy efficiency measures already adopted. The gap between high awareness and low achievement is probably due to the lack of knowledge about how to do it or the perception of a high cost.

Keywords: survey, renewable energy, winery, Spanish case

Procedia PDF Downloads 248
7025 Learning Predictive Models for Efficient Energy Management of Exhibition Hall

Authors: Jeongmin Kim, Eunju Lee, Kwang Ryel Ryu

Abstract:

This paper addresses the problem of predictive control for energy management of large-scaled exhibition halls, where a lot of energy is consumed to maintain internal atmosphere under certain required conditions. Predictive control achieves better energy efficiency by optimizing the operation of air-conditioning facilities with not only the current but also some future status taken into account. In this paper, we propose to use predictive models learned from past sensor data of hall environment, for use in optimizing the operating plan for the air-conditioning facilities by simulating future environmental change. We have implemented an emulator of an exhibition hall by using EnergyPlus, a widely used building energy emulation tool, to collect data for learning environment-change models. Experimental results show that the learned models predict future change highly accurately on a short-term basis.

Keywords: predictive control, energy management, machine learning, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
7024 Influence of Percentage and Melting Temperature of Phase Change Material on the Thermal Behavior of a Hollow-Brick

Authors: Zakaria Aketouane, Mustapha Malha, Abdellah Bah, Omar Ansari, Mohamed Asbik

Abstract:

The present paper deals with the thermal performance of a hollow-brick filled with Phase Change Material (PCM). The main objective is to study the effect of percentage and melting temperature of the PCM on the thermal inertia and internal surface temperature of the hollow-brick. A numerical model based on the heat transfer equation and the apparent heat capacity method has been validated using experimental study from the literature. The results show that increasing the percentage of the PCM has a significant effect on time lag and decrement factor that define the thermal inertia; the internal temperature is reduced by 1.36°C to 5.39°C for a percentage from 11% to 71% in comparison to a brick without PCM. In addition, an appropriate melting temperature of 37°C has been deduced for the horizontal wall orientation in Rabat in comparison to 27°C and 47°C.

Keywords: appropriate melting temperature, decrement factor, phase change material, thermal inertia, time lag

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
7023 A Paradigm Shift into the Primary Teacher Education Program in Bangladesh

Authors: Happy Kumar Das, Md. Shahriar Shafiq

Abstract:

This paper portrays an assumed change in the primary teacher education program in Bangladesh. An initiative has been taken with a vision to ensure an integrated approach to developing trainee teachers’ knowledge and understanding about learning at a deeper level, and with that aim, the Diploma in Primary Education (DPEd) program replaces the Certificate-in-Education (C-in-Ed) program in Bangladeshi context for primary teachers. The stated professional values of the existing program such as ‘learner-centered’, ‘reflective’ approach to pedagogy tend to contradict the practice exemplified through the delivery mechanism. To address the challenges, through the main two components (i) Training Institute-based learning and (ii) School-based learning, the new program tends to cover knowledge and value that underpin the actual practice of teaching. These two components are given approximately equal weighting within the program in terms of both time, content and assessment as the integration seeks to combine theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge and vice versa. The curriculum emphasizes a balance between the taught modules and the components of the practicum. For example, the theories of formative and summative assessment techniques are elaborated through focused reflection on case studies as well as observation and teaching practice in the classroom. The key ideology that is reflected through this newly developed program is teacher’s belief in ‘holistic education’ that can lead to creating opportunities for skills development in all three (Cognitive, Social and Affective) domains simultaneously. The proposed teacher education program aims to address these areas of generic skill development alongside subject-specific learning outcomes. An exploratory study has been designed in this regard where 7 Primary Teachers’ Training Institutes (PTIs) in 7 divisions of Bangladesh was used for experimenting DPEd program. The analysis was done based on document analysis, periodical monitoring report and empirical data gathered from the experimental PTIs. The findings of the study revealed that the intervention brought positive change in teachers’ professional beliefs, attitude and skills along with improvement of school environment. Teachers in training schools work together for collective professional development where they support each other through lesson study, action research, reflective journals, group sharing and so on. Although the DPEd program addresses the above mentioned factors, one of the challenges of the proposed program is the issue of existing capacity and capabilities of the PTIs towards its effective implementation.

Keywords: Bangladesh, effective implementation, primary teacher education, reflective approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 211
7022 Assessment of Chromium Concentration and Human Health Risk in the Steelpoort River Sub-Catchment of the Olifants River Basin, South Africa

Authors: Abraham Addo-Bediako

Abstract:

Many freshwater ecosystems are facing immense pressure from anthropogenic activities, such as agricultural, industrial and mining. Trace metal pollution in freshwater ecosystems has become an issue of public health concern due to its toxicity and persistence in the environment. Trace elements pose a serious risk not only to the environment and aquatic biota but also humans. Chromium is one of such trace elements and its pollution in surface waters and groundwaters represents a serious environmental problem. In South Africa, agriculture, mining, industrial and domestic wastes are the main contributors to chromium discharge in rivers. The common forms of chromium are chromium (III) and chromium (VI). The latter is the most toxic because it can cause damage to human health. The aim of the study was to assess the contamination of chromium in the water and sediments of two rivers in the Steelpoort River sub-catchment of the Olifants River Basin, South Africa and human health risk. The concentration of Cr was analyzed using inductively coupled plasma–optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). The concentration of the metal was found to exceed the threshold limit, mainly in areas of high human activities. The hazard quotient through ingestion exposure did not exceed the threshold limit of 1 for adults and children and cancer risk for adults and children computed did not exceed the threshold limit of 10-4. Thus, there is no potential health risk from chromium through ingestion of drinking water for now. However, with increasing human activities, especially mining, the concentration could increase and become harmful to humans who depend on rivers for drinking water. It is recommended that proper management strategies should be taken to minimize the impact of chromium on the rivers and water from the rivers should properly be treated before domestic use.

Keywords: land use, health risk, metal pollution, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 81
7021 Biochar and Food Security in Central Uganda

Authors: Nataliya Apanovich, Mark Wright

Abstract:

Uganda is among the poorest but fastest growing populations in the world. Its annual population growth of 3% puts additional stress through land fragmentation, agricultural intensification, and deforestation on already highly weathered tropical (Ferralsol) soils. All of these factors lead to decreased agricultural yields and consequently diminished food security. The central region of Uganda, Buganda Kingdom, is especially vulnerable in terms of food security as its high population density coupled with mismanagement of natural resources led to gradual loss of its soil and even changes in microclimate. These changes are negatively affecting livelihoods of smallholder farmers who comprise 80% of all population in Uganda. This research focuses on biochar for soil remediation in Masaka District, Uganda. If produced on a small scale from locally sourced materials, biochar can increase the quality of soil in a cost and time effective manner. To assess biochar potential, 151 smallholder farmers were interviewed on the types of crops grown, agricultural residues produced and their use, as well as on attitudes towards biochar use and its production on a small scale. The interviews were conducted in 7 sub-counties, 32 parishes, and 92 villages. The total farmland covered by the study was 606.2 kilometers. Additional information on the state of agricultural development and environmental degradation in the district was solicited from four local government officials via informal interviews. This project has been conducted in collaboration with the international agricultural research institution, Makerere University in Kampala, Uganda. The results of this research can have implications on the way farmers perceive the value of their agricultural residues and what they decide to do with them. The underlying objective is to help smallholders in degraded soils increase their agricultural yields through the use of biochar without diverting the already established uses of agricultural residues to a new soil management practice.

Keywords: agricultural residues, biochar, central Uganda, food security, soil erosion, soil remediation

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
7020 Participatory Approach for Urban Sustainability through Ostrom’s Principles

Authors: Kuladeep Kumar Sadevi

Abstract:

The shift towards raising global urban population has intense implications on the sustainability of the urban livelihoods. Rapid urbanization has made governments, companies and civil societies recognize that they are barely equipped to deal with growing urban demands, especially water, waste and energy management. Effective management of land, water, energy and waste at a community level should be addressed well to attain greener cities. In pursuit of Green livelihoods; various norms, codes, and green rating programmes have been followed by stakeholders at various levels. While the sustainability is being adapted at smaller scale developments, greening the urban environment at community/city level is still finding its path to reality. This is due to lack of the sense of ownership in the citizens for their immediate neighborhoods and city as a whole. This phenomenon can be well connected to the theory of 'tragedy of commons' with respect to the community engagement to manage the common pool resources. The common pool resource management has been well addressed by Elinor Ostrom, who shared the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009 for her lifetime of scholarly work investigating how communities succeed or fail at managing common pool (finite) resources. This paper examines the applicability of Elinor Ostrom's 8 Principles for Managing a Commons, to meet urban sustainability. The key objective of this paper is to come up with a model for effective urban common pool resource management, which ultimately leads to sustainability as a whole. The paper brings out a methodology to understand various parameters involved in urban sustainability, examine the synergies of all such parameters, and application of Ostrom’s principles to correlate these parameters in order to attain effective urban resource management.

Keywords: common pool resources, green cities, green communities, participatory management, sustainable development, urban resource management, urban sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 353
7019 Lessons Learned from a Chronic Care Behavior Change Program: Outcome to Make Physical Activity a Habit

Authors: Doaa Alhaboby

Abstract:

Behavior change is a complex process that often requires ongoing support and guidance. Telecoaching programs have emerged as effective tools in facilitating behavior change by providing personalized support remotely. This abstract explores the lessons learned from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) evaluation of a telecoaching program focused on behavior change for Diabetics and discusses strategies for implementing these lessons to overcome the challenge of making physical activity a habit. The telecoaching program involved participants engaging in regular coaching sessions delivered via phone calls. These sessions aimed to address various aspects of behavior change, including goal setting, self-monitoring, problem-solving, and social support. Over the course of the program, participants received personalized guidance tailored to their unique needs and preferences. One of the key lessons learned from the RCT was the importance of engagement, readiness to change and the use of technology. Participants who set specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals were more likely to make sustained progress toward behavior change. Additionally, regular self-monitoring of behavior and progress was found to be instrumental in promoting accountability and motivation. Moving forward, implementing the lessons learned from the RCT can help individuals overcome the hardest part of behavior change: making physical activity a habit. One strategy is to prioritize consistency and establish a regular routine for physical activity. This may involve scheduling workouts at the same time each day or week and treating them as non-negotiable appointments. Additionally, integrating physical activity into daily life routines and taking into consideration the main challenges that can stop the process of integrating physical activity routines into the daily schedule can help make it more habitual. Furthermore, leveraging technology and digital tools can enhance adherence to physical activity goals. Mobile apps, wearable activity trackers, and online fitness communities can provide ongoing support, motivation, and accountability. These tools can also facilitate self-monitoring of behavior and progress, allowing individuals to track their activity levels and adjust their goals as needed. In conclusion, telecoaching programs offer valuable insights into behavior change and provide strategies for overcoming challenges, such as making physical activity a habit. By applying the lessons learned from these programs and incorporating them into daily life, individuals can cultivate sustainable habits that support their long-term health and well-being.

Keywords: lifestyle, behavior change, physical activity, chronic conditions

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
7018 Using Flow Line Modelling, Remote Sensing for Reconstructing Glacier Volume Loss Model for Athabasca Glacier, Canadian Rockies

Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

Abstract:

Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

Procedia PDF Downloads 264
7017 Estimating Water Balance at Beterou Watershed, Benin Using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model

Authors: Ella Sèdé Maforikan

Abstract:

Sustained water management requires quantitative information and the knowledge of spatiotemporal dynamics of hydrological system within the basin. This can be achieved through the research. Several studies have investigated both surface water and groundwater in Beterou catchment. However, there are few published papers on the application of the SWAT modeling in Beterou catchment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT to simulate the water balance within the watershed. The inputs data consist of digital elevation model, land use maps, soil map, climatic data and discharge records. The model was calibrated and validated using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI2) approach. The calibrated started from 1989 to 2006 with four years warming up period (1985-1988); and validation was from 2007 to 2020. The goodness of the model was assessed using five indices, i.e., Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root means square error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR), percent bias (PBIAS), the coefficient of determination (R²), and Kling Gupta efficiency (KGE). Results showed that SWAT model successfully simulated river flow in Beterou catchment with NSE = 0.79, R2 = 0.80 and KGE= 0.83 for the calibration process against validation process that provides NSE = 0.78, R2 = 0.78 and KGE= 0.85 using site-based streamflow data. The relative error (PBIAS) ranges from -12.2% to 3.1%. The parameters runoff curve number (CN2), Moist Bulk Density (SOL_BD), Base Flow Alpha Factor (ALPHA_BF), and the available water capacity of the soil layer (SOL_AWC) were the most sensitive parameter. The study provides further research with uncertainty analysis and recommendations for model improvement and provision of an efficient means to improve rainfall and discharges measurement data.

Keywords: watershed, water balance, SWAT modeling, Beterou

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7016 Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Security and Health in Coastal Community: A Gender Outlook

Authors: Soorya Vennila

Abstract:

The present study answers the questions; how does climate change affect the water security in drought prone Ramanathapuram district? and what has water insecurity done to the health of the coastal community? The study area chosen is Devipattinam in Ramanathapuram district. Climate change evidentially wreaked havoc on the community with saltwater intrusion, water quality degradation, water scarcity and its eventual economic, social like power inequality within family and community and health hazards. The climatological data such as rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature were statistically analyzed for trend using Mann-Kendall test. The test was conducted for 14 years (1989-2002) of rainfall data, maximum and minimum temperature and the data were statistically analyzed. At the outset, the water quality samples were collected from Devipattinam to test its physical and chemical parameters and their spatial variation. The results were derived as shown in ARC GIS. Using the water quality test water quality index were framed. And finally, key Informant interview, questionnaire were conducted to capture the gender perception and problem. The data collected were thereafter interpreted using SPSS software for recommendations and suggestions to overcome water scarcity and health problems.

Keywords: health, watersecurity, water quality, climate change

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7015 Agent-Based Modelling to Improve Dairy-origin Beef Production: Model Description and Evaluation

Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

Abstract:

Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

Procedia PDF Downloads 91