Search results for: time-series analysis

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar

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The airline industry is continuously challenging how to safely increase the service life of the aircraft with limited maintenance budgets. Operators are looking for the most qualified maintenance providers of aircraft components, offering the finest customer service. Component owner and maintenance provider is offering an Abacus agreement (Aircraft Component Leasing) to increase the efficiency and productivity of the customer service. To increase the customer service, the current focus on No Fault Found (NFF) units must change into the focus on Early Failure (EF) units. Since the effect of EF units has a significant impact on customer satisfaction, this needs to increase the reliability of EF units at minimal cost, which leads to the goal of this paper. By identifying the reliability of early failure (EF) units with regards to No Fault Found (NFF) units, in particular, the root cause analysis with an integrated cost analysis of EF units with the use of a failure mode analysis tool and a cost model, there will be a set of EF maintenance improvements. The data used for the investigation of the EF units will be obtained from the Pentagon system, an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system used by Fokker Services. The Pentagon system monitors components, which needs to be repaired from Fokker aircraft owners, Abacus exchange pool, and commercial customers. The data will be selected on several criteria’s: time span, failure rate, and cost driver. When the selected data has been acquired, the failure mode and root cause analysis of EF units are initiated. The failure analysis approach tool was implemented, resulting in the proposed failure solution of EF. This will lead to specific EF maintenance improvements, which can be set-up to decrease the EF units and, as a result of this, increasing the reliability. The investigated EFs, between the time period over ten years, showed to have a significant reliability impact of 32% on the total of 23339 unscheduled failures. Since the EFs encloses almost one-third of the entire population.

Keywords: supportability, no fault found, FMEA, early failure, availability, operational reliability, predictive model

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: Ratih Fitria Putri, Josaphat Tetuko Sri Sumantyo, Hiroaki Kuze

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Jakarta Metropolitan City is located on the northwest coast of West Java province with geographical location between 106º33’ 00”-107º00’00”E longitude and 5º48’30”-6º24’00”S latitude. Jakarta urban area has been suffered from land subsidence in several land use type as trading, industry and settlement area. Land subsidence hazard is one of the consequences of urban development in Jakarta. This hazard is caused by intensive human activities in groundwater extraction and land use mismanagement. Geologically, the Jakarta urban area is mostly dominated by alluvium fan sediment. The objectives of this research are to make an analysis of Jakarta urban land use type on land subsidence zone areas. The process of producing safer land use and settlements of the land subsidence areas are very important. Spatial distributions of land subsidence detection are necessary tool for land use management planning. For this purpose, Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (DInSAR) method is used. The DInSAR is complementary to ground-based methods such as leveling and global positioning system (GPS) measurements, yielding information in a wide coverage area even when the area is inaccessible. The data were fine tuned by using X-Band image satellite data from 2010 to 2013 and land use mapping data. Our analysis of land use type that land subsidence movement occurred on the northern part Jakarta Metropolitan City varying from 7.5 to 17.5 cm/year as industry and settlement land use type areas.

Keywords: land use analysis, land subsidence mapping, urban area, X-band satellite image

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Authors: Tawfiq Albishri, Abdulmajeed Alqahtani

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Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are increasingly seen as a sustainable alternative to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, primarily due to their environmental and economic benefits. Saudi Arabia's interest in investing in renewable energy and reducing greenhouse gas emissions presents significant potential for the widespread adoption of BEVs in the country. However, several factors have hindered the adoption of BEVs in Saudi Arabia, with high ownership costs being the most prominent barrier. This cost discrepancy is primarily due to the lack of localized production of BEVs and their components, leading to increased import costs, as well as the high initial cost of BEVs compared to ICE vehicles. This paper aims to evaluate the feasibility of BEVs compared to ICE vehicles in Saudi Arabia by conducting a cost of ownership analysis. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis will be conducted to determine the most significant contributor to the ownership costs of BEVs that, if changed, could expedite their adoption in Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: battery electric vehicles, internal combustion engine, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions, total cost of ownership

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Authors: Anna Kizinska

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The research aims at discussing Polish and British incongruent terms that refer to company law. The Polish terms under analysis appear in the Polish Code of Commercial Partnerships and Companies and constitute legal terms or factual terms. The English equivalents of each Polish term under research appear in two Polish Code of Commercial Partnerships and Companies translations into English. The theoretical part of the paper includes the presentation of the definitions of a system-bound term and incongruity of terms. The aim of the analysis is to check if the classification of translation methods used in civil law terms translation comprehends the translation methods applied while translating company law terms into English. The translation procedures are defined according to Newmark. The stages of the research include 1) presentation of a definition of a Polish term, 2) enumerating the so-far published English equivalents of a given Polish term and comparing their definitions (as long as they appear in English law dictionaries ) with the definition of a given Polish term under analysis, 3) checking whether an English equivalent appears or not in, among others, the sources of the British law (legislation.gov.uk database) , 4) identifying the translation method that was applied while forming a given English equivalent.

Keywords: translation, legal terms, equivalence, company law, incongruency

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Authors: Anvi Kumar

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This paper explores the attitudes and awareness of multiple generations ranging from Boomers I to GenZ (i.e. from 1954 to 2012) towards mental health issues. A convenient sample of 191 people was gathered in India aged 11-77. 20 people each were considered from 5 generational cohorts, namely- Boomers I, Boomers II, Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z. The study tool comprised a survey that included demographic questions and the Community Attitude towards Mental Illness (CAMI) scale by Taylor & Dear (1981). Descriptive statistics, ANOVA, and Bonferonni’s post-hoc analysis have been used to perform the analysis. The findings reveal that the level of kindness towards those who struggle with mental health varies through certain age groups. An overall sense of exclusion of those struggling with mental health is prevalent among all age groups. GenZ’s awareness of mental health issues is primarily via social media, as against the rest of the generations seeking it from close relatives and friends. The study’s findings suggest a need to investigate further the quality of mental health knowledge content and its consumption pattern. Understanding the dynamics of information sharing and the potential for biases requires further discovery.

Keywords: attitude, behaviour, mental illness, Gen Z, millennials, Gen Y, multi-generations, generational differences

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Authors: Tara Miller, Tariq Ganief, Jonathan Blackburn

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Millions of babies are still born to HIV-infected mothers each year despite the ramped-up HAART use. However, these infants are HIV uninfected but exposed, which is now a growing population that has weakened immune systems and poorer outcomes. Due to HIV exposure and possible ARV exposure during pregnancy and breastfeeding, these infants are believed to have altered immune responses and microbiomes when compared to their healthy counterparts. The gut microbiome roles an important role in infant development, specifically in the immune system. Research has shown these HIV-exposed, uninfected infants have weaker immune responses to their neonate vaccines, and in developing countries, this leaves them vulnerable to opportunistic disease. By gaining a deeper understanding of the gut microbiome and the products of the microbes via metaproteomic analysis, we can hopefully understand and improve the immune system and health of these infants. To investigate the metaproteome of the infants’ guts, mass spectrometry will be used, followed by data analysis using DIA-NN. The hypothesized results are that the HIV-exposed, uninfected infants have an altered microbiome compared to their healthy counterparts. Additionally, the differences found are hypothesized to be involved with inflammation which would contribute to the poor health of the infants.

Keywords: HIV, mass spectrometry, metaproteomics, microbiome

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Authors: Michele Romanello

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COVID-19 has spread rapidly in Brazil since March 2020, making the country one of the most affected in the world by the pandemic. From an economic point of view, Brazil came from a pre-pandemic period characterized by low or negative growth, with a resulting increase in the number of unemployed and informal workers. This paper considers lockdown implementation in the situation of the large presence of informality in the economy. The objective of the paper is to analyze how the country has tried to help workers affected by economic crisis after the implementation of measures against COVID-19 and whether the emergency assistance from the government has been adequate to contain the increase of informal workers and unemployed. The methodology used in this paper is survival analysis. Through this methodology, the formality – informality, and informality – unemployment transitions are analyzed. This analysis draws data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD) and from the National Household Sample Survey COVID-19 (PNAD COVID-19) covering the period of January 2020 – July 2020. The results indicate that emergency aid has been not sufficient to reduce the transitions of workers from formal to informal jobs and from informal jobs to unemployment. Emergency aid has been not sufficient considering the previous situation of the country, with levels of poverty and inequality very high. In the next months, another fundamental determinant of the income trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 crisis will be the continuity of the emergency aid, especially considering the fiscal adjustment policy pursued by the government. Therefore, the current negative portrait may be even worse in the coming months.

Keywords: Brazil, COVID-19, informality, survival analysis

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Authors: Aaron Yan

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Tennis elbow has been a leading injury and problem among amateur and even professional players. Many factors contribute to tennis elbow. In this research, we apply state of the art sensor-less computer vision and AI technology to study the biomechanics of a player’s tennis movements during training and competition as they relate to the causes of tennis elbow. We provide a framework for the analysis of key biomechanical parameters and their correlations with specific tennis stroke and movements that can lead to tennis elbow or elbow injury. We also devise a method for using AI to automatically detect player’s forms that can lead to tennis elbow development for on-court injury prevention.

Keywords: Tennis Elbow, Computer Vision, AI, 3DAT

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Authors: Orose Rugchati, Khumthong Mahawongwiriya

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Dendrobium hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul has become one of the important commercial commodities in Thailand agricultural industry worldwide, either as potted plants or as cut flowers due to the attractive color produced in flower petals. Anthocyanins are the main flower pigments and responsible for the natural attractive display of petal colors. These pigments play an important role in functionality, such as to attract animal pollinators, classification, and grading of these orchids. Dendrobium hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul has been collected from local area farm in different stage flowers (F1, F2-F5, and F6). Anthocyanins pigment were extracted from the fresh flower by solvent extraction (MeOH–TFA 99.5:0.5v/v at 4ºC) and purification with ethyl acetate. The main anthocyanins components are cyanidin, pelargonidin, and delphinidin. Pure anthocyanin contents were analysis by UV-Visible spectroscopy technique at λ max 535, 520 and 546 nm respectively. The anthocyanins contents were converted in term of monomeric anthocyanins pigment (mg/L). The anthocyanins contents of all sample were compared with standard pigments cyanidin, pelargonidin and delphinidin. From this experiment is a simple extraction and analysis anthocyanins content in different stage of flowers results shown that monomeric anthocyanins pigment contents of different stage flowers (F1, F2-F5 and F6 ): cyanidin – 3 – glucoside (mg/l) are 0.85+0.08, 24.22+0.12 and 62.12+0.6; Pelargonidin 3,5-di- glucoside(mg/l) 10.37+0.12, 31.06+0.8 and 81.58+ 0.5; Delphinidin (mg/l) 6.34+0.17, 18.98+0.56 and 49.87+0.7; and the appearance of extraction pure anthocyanins in L(a, b): 2.71(1.38, -0.48), 1.06(0.39,-0.66) and 2.64(2.71,-3.61) respectively. Dendrobium Hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul could be used as a source of anthocyanins by simple solvent extraction and stage of flowers as a guideline for the prediction amount of main anthocyanins components are cyanidin, pelargonidin, and delphinidin could be application and development in quantities, and qualities with the advantage for food pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries.

Keywords: analysis, anthocyanins contents, different stage flowers, Dendrobium Hybrid cv. Ear-Sakul

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Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones

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Authors: Roslinda Nazar, Amin Noor, Khamisah Jafar, Ioan Pop

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In this paper, the steady laminar three-dimensional boundary layer flow and heat transfer of a copper (Cu)-water nanofluid in the vicinity of a permeable shrinking flat surface in an otherwise quiescent fluid is studied. The nanofluid mathematical model in which the effect of the nanoparticle volume fraction is taken into account is considered. The governing nonlinear partial differential equations are transformed into a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations using a similarity transformation which is then solved numerically using the function bvp4c from Matlab. Dual solutions (upper and lower branch solutions) are found for the similarity boundary layer equations for a certain range of the suction parameter. A stability analysis has been performed to show which branch solutions are stable and physically realizable. The numerical results for the skin friction coefficient and the local Nusselt number as well as the velocity and temperature profiles are obtained, presented and discussed in detail for a range of various governing parameters.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, shrinking surface, stability analysis, three-dimensional flow

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Authors: Riaz Ahmed Mangrio

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Reduplication in Urdu-Hindi affects all major word categories, particles, and even nonsensical words. It conveys a variety of meanings, including distribution, emphasis, iteration, adjectival and adverbial. This study will primarily discuss reduplicative structures of nonsensical words in Urdu-Hindi and then briefly look at some examples from other Indo-Aryan languages to introduce the debate regarding the same structures in them. The goal of this study is to present counter-evidence against Keane (2005: 241), who claims “the base in the cases of lexical and phrasal echo reduplication is always independently meaningful”. However, Urdu-Hindi reduplication derives meaningful compounds from nonsensical words e.g. gũ mgũ (A) ‘silent and confused’ and d̪əb d̪əb-a (N) ‘one’s fear over others’. This needs a comprehensive examination to see whether and how the various structures form patterns of a base-reduplicant relationship or, rather, they are merely sub lexical items joining together to form a word pattern of any grammatical category in content words. Another interesting theoretical question arises within the Optimality framework: in an OT analysis, is it necessary to identify one of the two constituents as the base and the other as reduplicant? Or is it best to consider this a pattern, but then how does this fit in with an OT analysis? This may be an even more interesting theoretical question. Looking for the solution to such questions can serve to make an important contribution. In the case at hand, each of the two constituents is an independent nonsensical word, but their echo reduplication is nonetheless meaningful. This casts significant doubt upon Keane’s (2005: 241) observation of some examples from Hindi and Tamil reduplication that “the base in cases of lexical and phrasal echo reduplication is always independently meaningful”. The debate on the point becomes further interesting when the triplication of nonsensical words in Urdu-Hindi e.g. aẽ baẽ ʃaẽ (N) ‘useless talk’ is also seen, which is equally important to discuss. The example is challenging to Harrison’s (1973) claim that only the monosyllabic verbs in their progressive forms reduplicate twice to result in triplication, which is not the case with the example presented. The study will consist of a thorough descriptive analysis of the data for the purpose of documentation, and then there will be OT analysis.

Keywords: reduplication, urdu-hindi, nonsensical, optimality theory

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Authors: Amitha Puranik, V. S. Binu, Seena Biju

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Missing data is a common problem in spatial analysis especially at the aggregate level. Missing can either occur in covariate or in response variable or in both in a given location. Many missing data techniques are available to estimate the missing data values but not all of these methods can be applied on spatial data since the data are autocorrelated. Hence there is a need to develop a method that estimates the missing values in both response variable and covariates in spatial data by taking account of the spatial autocorrelation. The present study aims to develop a model to estimate the missing data points at the aggregate level in spatial data by accounting for (a) Spatial autocorrelation of the response variable (b) Spatial autocorrelation of covariates and (c) Correlation between covariates and the response variable. Estimating the missing values of spatial data requires a model that explicitly account for the spatial autocorrelation. The proposed model not only accounts for spatial autocorrelation but also utilizes the correlation that exists between covariates, within covariates and between a response variable and covariates. The precise estimation of the missing data points in spatial data will result in an increased precision of the estimated effects of independent variables on the response variable in spatial regression analysis.

Keywords: spatial regression, missing data estimation, spatial autocorrelation, simulation analysis

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Authors: Rajarshi Sharma, Rashidul Alam, Visavino Seleyi, Yuvila Sangtam

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The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) relationship of rainfall amounts is one of the most commonly used tools in water resources engineering for planning, design and operation of water resources project, or for various engineering projects against design floods. The establishment of such relationships was reported as early as in 1932 (Bernard). Since then many sets of relationships have been constructed for several parts of the globe. The objective of this research is to derive IDF relationship of rainfall for western watershed of Guwahati, Assam. These relationships are useful in the design of urban drainage works, e.g. storm sewers, culverts and other hydraulic structures. In the study, rainfall depth for 10 years viz. 2001 to 2010 has been collected from the Regional Meteorological Centre Borjhar, Guwahati. Firstly, the data has been used to construct the mass curve for duration of more than 7 hours rainfall to calculate the maximum intensity and to form the intensity duration curves. Gumbel’s frequency analysis technique has been used to calculate the probable maximum rainfall intensities for a period of 2 yr, 5 yr, 10 yr, 50 yr, 100 yr from the maximum intensity. Finally, regression analysis has been used to develop the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. Thus, from the analysis the values for the constants ‘a’,‘b’ &‘c’ have been found out. The values of ‘a’ for which the sum of the squared deviation is minimum has been found out to be 40 and when the corresponding value of ‘c’ and ‘b’ for the minimum squared deviation of ‘a’ are 0.744 and 1981.527 respectively. The results obtained showed that in all the cases the correlation coefficient is very high indicating the goodness of fit of the formulae to estimate IDF curves in the region of interest.

Keywords: intensity-duration-frequency relationship, mass curve, regression analysis, correlation coefficient

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Authors: V. Agostini, S. Gino, S. Inturri, A. Piccinini

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In cases of corpse identification or parental testing performed on exhumed alleged dead father, usually, we seek and acquire organic samples as bones and/or bone fragments, teeth, nails and muscle’s fragments. The DNA analysis of these cadaveric matrices usually leads to identifying success, but it often happens that the results of the typing are not satisfactory with highly degraded, partial or even non-interpretable genetic profiles. To aggravate the interpretative panorama deriving from the analysis of such 'classical' organic matrices, we must add a long and laborious treatment of the sample that starts from the mechanical fragmentation up to the protracted decalcification phase. These steps greatly increase the chance of sample contamination. In the present work, instead, we want to report the use of 'unusual' cadaveric matrices, demonstrating that their forensic genetics analysis can lead to better results in less time and with lower costs of reagents. We report six case reports, result of on-field experience, in which eyeswabs and cartilage were sampled and analyzed, allowing to obtain clear single genetic profiles, useful for identification purposes. In all cases we used the standard DNA tissue extraction protocols (as reported on the user manuals of the manufacturers such as QIAGEN or Invitrogen- Thermo Fisher Scientific), thus bypassing the long and difficult phases of mechanical fragmentation and decalcification of bones' samples. PCR was carried out using PowerPlex® Fusion System kit (Promega), and capillary electrophoresis was carried out on an ABI PRISM® 310 Genetic Analyzer (Applied Biosystems®), with GeneMapper ID v3.2.1 (Applied Biosystems®) software. The software Familias (version 3.1.3) was employed for kinship analysis. The genetic results achieved have proved to be much better than the analysis of bones or nails, both from the qualitative and quantitative point of view and from the point of view of costs and timing. This way, by using the standard procedure of DNA extraction from tissue, it is possible to obtain, in a shorter time and with maximum efficiency, an excellent genetic profile, which proves to be useful and can be easily decoded for later paternity tests and/or identification of human remains.

Keywords: DNA, eye swabs and cartilage, identification human remains, paternity testing

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Authors: Henry Pariaman, Iwa Garniwa, Isti Surjandari, Bambang Sugiarto

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Availability of a complex system of thermal power plant is strongly influenced by the reliability of spare parts and maintenance management policies. A reliability-centered maintenance (RCM) technique is an established method of analysis and is the main reference for maintenance planning. This method considers the consequences of failure in its implementation, but does not deal with further risk of down time that associated with failures, loss of production or high maintenance costs. Risk-based maintenance (RBM) technique provides support strategies to minimize the risks posed by the failure to obtain maintenance task considering cost effectiveness. Meanwhile, condition-based maintenance (CBM) focuses on monitoring the application of the conditions that allow the planning and scheduling of maintenance or other action should be taken to avoid the risk of failure prior to the time-based maintenance. Implementation of RCM, RBM, CBM alone or combined RCM and RBM or RCM and CBM is a maintenance technique used in thermal power plants. Implementation of these three techniques in an integrated maintenance will increase the availability of thermal power plants compared to the use of maintenance techniques individually or in combination of two techniques. This study uses the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance in an integrated manner to increase the availability of thermal power plants. The method generates MPI (Priority Maintenance Index) is RPN (Risk Priority Number) are multiplied by RI (Risk Index) and FDT (Failure Defense Task) which can generate the task of monitoring and assessment of conditions other than maintenance tasks. Both MPI and FDT obtained from development of functional tree, failure mode effects analysis, fault-tree analysis, and risk analysis (risk assessment and risk evaluation) were then used to develop and implement a plan and schedule maintenance, monitoring and assessment of the condition and ultimately perform availability analysis. The results of this study indicate that the reliability, risks and conditions-based maintenance methods, in an integrated manner can increase the availability of thermal power plants.

Keywords: integrated maintenance techniques, availability, thermal power plant, MPI, FDT

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Authors: S. R. M. Krishna, R. Santosh Kumar, V. Kamakshi Prasad

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Machine learning techniques are applied for the analysis of the impact of mental illness on the burden of disease. It is calculated using the disability-adjusted life year (DALY). DALYs for a disease is the sum of years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs) + No of years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs). The critical analysis is done based on the Data sources, machine learning techniques and feature extraction method. The reviewing is done based on major databases. The extracted data is examined using statistical analysis and machine learning techniques were applied. The prediction of the impact of mental illness on the population using machine learning techniques is an alternative approach to the old traditional strategies, which are time-consuming and may not be reliable. The approach makes it necessary for a comprehensive adoption, innovative algorithms, and an understanding of the limitations and challenges. The obtained prediction is a way of understanding the underlying impact of mental illness on the health of the people and it enables us to get a healthy life expectancy. The growing impact of mental illness and the challenges associated with the detection and treatment of mental disorders make it necessary for us to understand the complete effect of it on the majority of the population.

Keywords: ML, DAL, YLD, YLL

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: B. Ravi Kumar, S. Gajanana, K. Hemachandra Reddy, K. Udayani

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Physically into various derived shapes and sizes under the effect of externally applied forces. The spinning process is an advanced plastic working technology and is frequently used for manufacturing axisymmetric shapes. Over the last few decades, Sheet metal spinning has developed significantly and spun products have widely used in various industries. Nowadays the process has been expanded to new horizons in industries, since tendency to use minimum tool and equipment costs and also using lower forces with the output of excellent surface quality and good mechanical properties. The automation of the process is of greater importance, due to its wider applications like decorative household goods, rocket nose cones, gas cylinders, etc. This paper aims to gain insight into the conventional spinning process by employing experimental and numerical methods. The present work proposes an approach for optimizing process parameters are mandrel speed (rpm), roller nose radius (mm), thickness of the sheet (mm). Forming force, surface roughness and strain are the responses.in spinning of Aluminum (2024-T3) using DOE-Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Analysis of variance (ANOVA). The FEA software is used for modeling and analysis. The process parameters considered in the experimentation.

Keywords: FEA, RSM, process parameters, sheet metal spinning

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Authors: Chantima Wangsomchok

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The main purposes of this study are (1) to test the students’ communicative competence within six main functions: greeting, parting, thanking, offering, requesting and suggesting, (2) to employ error analysis in the students’ communicative competence within those functions, and (3) to compare the characteristics of the error found from the investigation. The subjects of the study is 328 first-year undergraduates taking the Foundation English course in the first semester of the 2008 academic year at Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. This study found that while the subjects showed high communicative competence in the use of the following three functions: greeting, thanking, and offering, they seemed to show poor communicative competence in suggesting, requesting and parting instead. In addition, this study found that the grammatical errors were likely to be most frequently found in the parting function. In the same way, the type of errors which were less frequently found was in the functions of thanking and requesting respectively. Instead, the students tended to have high pragmatic failure in the use of greeting and suggesting functions.

Keywords: error analysis, functions of English language, communicative competence, cognitive science

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Authors: Nazlı Üstünes Demirhan

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International norms are subject to pressures of change through contestation during the course of their lifetimes. The nature of the contestation is one of the factors that are likely to have a determinative role in the direction of this change towards a stronger or weaker norm. This paper aims to understand the relation between the legality of contestation and the direction of change in norm strength. Based on a multidimensional norm strength conceptualization, it is hypothesized that use of legal logic and rhetoric of argumentation would have a positive influence for norm strength, whereas non-legal nature of contestation would lack this and weaken the norm. In order to show this, the evolution of the human protection norm between 1999 and 2018 will be examined with reference to two major contestation periods; Kosovo intervention of 1999, which led to the development of R2P doctrine, and Libya intervention of 2011, which is followed by the demise of the norm. The comparative analysis will be conducted through process tracing method with a document analysis on the Security Council meeting minutes, resolutions, and press releases. This study aims to contribute to the norm contestation literature with the introduction of legal process analysis. It also relates to further questions in IR/IL nexus, relating to the value added of norm legality as well as the politics of legalization.

Keywords: humanitarian intervention, legality, norm contestation, norm dynamics, norm strength, responsibility to protect

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Authors: Ismail Ay

Abstract:

In this study, it is aimed to analyze the relations of the factors such as the learned resourcefulness, self-efficacy, self-regulation and subjective well-being which are thought to affect the needs of the university students for psychological help and to determine if the subjective well-being mediates other factors in the prediction of the needs of the university students for psychological help. The population of the study is formed of undergraduates who get education in 16 faculties in the central campus of the University of Atatürk in the spring term of 2012-2013 academic years. The sample of the study is formed of 1205 undergraduates (female=666, 55,3 %; male=539, 44,7 %; average of age =21,49; Sd=2,18) selected from the mentioned universe by convenience sampling method. “Need for Psychological Help Scale” has been developed as a part of the study to determine the needs for psychological help. “Short Self-Regulation Questionnaire” has been adapted into Turkish to determine the self-regulation skills. Apart from these, Rosenbaum’s Learned Resourcefulness Scale, General Self-Efficacy Scale and to determine subjective well-being; Satisfaction with Life Scale and Positive and Negative Affect Scale have been used within the study. SPSS 22.0 and LISREL 9.1 have been used in the analysis of the data. Pearson product-moment correlation, descriptive analysis, factor analysis and path analysis to test the research hypothesis has been used in the study. According to obtained data, the learned resourcefulness factor does not predict the subjective well-being; however, it highly predicts the self-regulation and self-efficacy factors. It has been determined that the self-regulation and self-efficacy factors predict the subjective well-being in a positive way and medium level, and subjective well-being mediates self-regulation and self-efficacy factors to predict the needs for psychological help. It was also determined that subjective well-being predicts the needs for psychological help in a negative way and fair level. All these results have been discussed in terms of the related theories and literature, and several suggestions have been made.

Keywords: need for psychological help, self-regulation, self-efficacy, learned resourcefulness, subjective well-being, Maslow, psychological needs

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar Srivastava, Anu Rani Sharma, Kamna Sachdeva

Abstract:

Every year, fog formation over the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGPs) of Indian region during the winter months of December and January is believed to create numerous hazards, inconvenience, and economic loss to the inhabitants of this densely populated region of Indian subcontinent. The aim of the paper is to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of winter fog over IGPs. Long term ground observations of visibility and other meteorological parameters (1971-2010) have been analyzed to understand the formation of fog phenomena and its relevance during the peak winter months of January and December over IGP of India. In order to examine the temporal variability, time series and trend analysis were carried out by using the Mann-Kendall Statistical test. Trend analysis performed by using the Mann-Kendall test, accepts the alternate hypothesis with 95% confidence level indicating that there exists a trend. Kendall tau’s statistics showed that there exists a positive correlation between time series and fog frequency. Further, the Theil and Sen’s median slope estimate showed that the magnitude of trend is positive. Magnitude is higher during January compared to December for the entire IGP except in December when it is high over the western IGP. Decade wise time series analysis revealed that there has been continuous increase in fog days. The net overall increase of 99 % was observed over IGP in last four decades. Diurnal variability and average daily persistence were computed by using descriptive statistical techniques. Geo-statistical analysis of fog was carried out to understand the spatial variability of fog. Geo-statistical analysis of fog revealed that IGP is a high fog prone zone with fog occurrence frequency of more than 66% days during the study period. Diurnal variability indicates the peak occurrence of fog is between 06:00 and 10:00 local time and average daily fog persistence extends to 5 to 7 hours during the peak winter season. The results would offer a new perspective to take proactive measures in reducing the irreparable damage that could be caused due to changing trends of fog.

Keywords: fog, climatology, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis, spatial variability, temporal variability, visibility

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Authors: A. Kianifar, M. Afzali, I. Pishbin

Abstract:

In this paper, design details, theoretical analysis and thermal performance analysis of a solar energy concentrator suited to combined heat and thermoelectric power generation are presented. The thermoelectric device is attached to the absorber plate to convert concentrated solar energy directly into electric energy at the focus of the concentrator. A cooling channel (water cooled heat sink) is fitted to the cold side of the thermoelectric device to remove the waste heat and maintain a high temperature gradient across the device to improve conversion efficiency.

Keywords: concentrator thermoelectric generator, CTEG, solar energy, thermoelectric cells

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Authors: Katharina Buttenberg

Abstract:

Customer and brand-oriented capabilities have been identified as key influencing capabilities for business performance. Especially in the early years of the firm, it is crucial to develop and consciously manage these capabilities. In this paper, the results of a quantitative analysis, investigating the causal relationship between customer- and brand-oriented (marketing) capabilities and business performance will be presented. The research displays the dependencies between the constructs and will provide practical implications for young firms in the acquisition and management of these capabilities.

Keywords: brand-oriented capabilities, customer-oriented capabilities, entrepreneurship, resource-based theory, young firms

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Authors: Liang Weichien

Abstract:

Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: A. T. Al-Isawi, P. E. F. Collins

Abstract:

The behaviour of structures exposed to fire after an earthquake is not a new area of engineering research, but there remain a number of areas where further work is required. Such areas relate to the way in which seismic excitation is applied to a structure, taking into account the effect of soil-structure interaction (SSI) and the method of analysis, in addition to identifying the excitation load properties. The selection of earthquake data input for use in nonlinear analysis and the method of analysis are still challenging issues. Thus, realistic artificial ground motion input data must be developed to certify that site properties parameters adequately describe the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the system and that the characteristics of these parameters are coherent with the characteristics of the target parameters. Conversely, ignoring the significance of some attributes, such as frequency content, soil site properties and earthquake parameters may lead to misleading results, due to the misinterpretation of required input data and the incorrect synthesise of analysis hypothesis. This paper presents a study of the post-earthquake fire (PEF) performance of a multi-storey steel-framed building resting on soft clay, taking into account the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the structure and soil, and the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Structures subjected to an earthquake may experience various levels of damage; the geometrical damage, which indicates the change in the initial structure’s geometry due to the residual deformation as a result of plastic behaviour, and the mechanical damage which identifies the degradation of the mechanical properties of the structural elements involved in the plastic range of deformation. Consequently, the structure presumably experiences partial structural damage but is then exposed to fire under its new residual material properties, which may result in building failure caused by a decrease in fire resistance. This scenario would be more complicated if SSI was also considered. Indeed, most earthquake design codes ignore the probability of PEF as well as the effect that SSI has on the behaviour of structures, in order to simplify the analysis procedure. Therefore, the design of structures based on existing codes which neglect the importance of PEF and SSI can create a significant risk of structural failure. In order to examine the criteria for the behaviour of a structure under PEF conditions, a two-dimensional nonlinear elasto-plastic model is developed using ABAQUS software; the effects of SSI are included. Both geometrical and mechanical damages have been taken into account after the earthquake analysis step. For comparison, an identical model is also created, which does not include the effects of soil-structure interaction. It is shown that damage to structural elements is underestimated if SSI is not included in the analysis, and the maximum percentage reduction in fire resistance is detected in the case when SSI is included in the scenario. The results are validated using the literature.

Keywords: Abaqus Software, Finite Element Analysis, post-earthquake fire, seismic analysis, soil-structure interaction

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Authors: Sehrish Qayyum

Abstract:

In this age of constant technology, asymmetrical warfare could not be won. Attuned psychometric study confirms that screaming sometimes is more productive than active retaliation against strong adversaries. Asymmetric warfare is a game of nerves and thoughts with least vigorous participation for large anticipated losses. It creates the condition of paraplegia with partial but permanent immobility, which effects the core warfare operations, being screams rather than active retaliation. When one’s own power is doubted, it gives power to one’s own doubt to ruin all planning either done with superlative cost-benefit analysis. Strategically calculated estimation of asymmetric warfare since the early WWI to WWII, WWII-to Cold War, and then to the current era in three chronological periods exposits that courage makes nations win the battle of warriors to battle of comrades. Asymmetric warfare has been most difficult to fight and survive due to unexpectedness and being lethal despite preparations. Thoughts before action may be the best-assumed strategy to mix Regional Security Complex Theory and OODA loop to develop the Paraplegic Resilience Policy Plan (PRPP) to win asymmetric warfare. PRPP may serve to control and halt the ongoing wave of terrorism, guerilla warfare, and insurgencies, etc. PRPP, along with a strategic work plan, is based on psychometric analysis to deal with any possible war condition and tactic to save millions of innocent lives such that lost in Christchurch New Zealand in 2019, November 2015 Paris attacks, and Berlin market attacks in 2016, etc. Getting tangled into self-imposed epistemic dilemmas results in regret that becomes the only option of performance. It is a descriptive psychometric analysis of war conditions with generic application of probability tests to find the best possible options and conditions to develop PRPP for any adverse condition possible so far. Innovation in technology begets innovation in planning and action-plan to serve as a rheostat approach to deal with asymmetric warfare.

Keywords: asymmetric warfare, psychometric analysis, PRPP, security

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Authors: Elena Masi, Adolfo Morrone

Abstract:

Migration has recently become a mainstream development sector and is currently at the forefront in institutional and civil society context. However, no consensus exists on how the link between migration and development operates, that is how development is related to migration and how migration can promote development. On one hand, Official Development Assistance is recognized to be one of the levers to development. On the other hand, the debate is focusing on what should be the scope of aid programs targeting migrants groups and in general the migration process. This paper provides a descriptive analysis on how development aid for migration was allocated in the recent past, focusing on the actions that were funded and implemented by the international donor community. In the absence of an internationally shared methodology for defining the boundaries of development aid on migration, the analysis based on lexical hypotheses on the title or on the short description of initiatives funded by several Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Moreover, the research describes and quantifies aid flows for each country according to different criteria. The terms migrant and refugee are used to identify the projects in accordance with the most internationally agreed definitions and only actions in countries of transit or of origin are considered eligible, thus excluding the amount sustained for refugees in donor countries. The results show that the percentage of projects targeting migrants, in terms of amount, has followed a growing trend from 2009 to 2016 in several European countries, and is positively correlated with the flows of migrants. Distinguishing between programs targeting migrants and programs targeting refugees, some specific national features emerge more clearly. A focus is devoted to actions targeting the root causes of migration, showing an inter-sectoral approach in international aid allocation. The analysis gives some tentative solutions to the lack of consensus on language on migration and development aid, and emphasizes the need to internationally agree on a criterion for identifying programs targeting both migrants and refugees, to make action more transparent and in order to develop effective strategies at the global level.

Keywords: migration, official development assistance, ODA, refugees, time series

Procedia PDF Downloads 130