Search results for: climate change risk

Authors: Ku Aina Afiqah Ku Adzman, Manmeet Mahinderjit Singh, Zarul Fitri Zaaba

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NFC operates on low-range 13.56 MHz frequency within a distance from 4cm to 10cm, and the applications can be categorized as touch and go, touch and confirm, touch and connect, and touch and explore. NFC applications are vulnerable to various security and privacy attacks such due to its physical nature; unprotected data stored in NFC tag and insecure communication between its applications. This paper aims to determine the likelihood of security risks happening in an NFC technology and application. We present an NFC technology taxonomy covering NFC standards, types of application and various security and privacy attack. Based on observations and the survey presented to evaluate the risk assessment within the touch and go application demonstrates two security attacks that are high risks namely data corruption and DOS attacks. After the risks are determined, risk countermeasures by using AHP is adopted. The guideline and solutions to these two high risks, attacks are later applied to a secure NFC-enabled Smartphone Attendance System.

Keywords: Near Field Communication (NFC), risk assessment, multi-criteria decision making, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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Authors: Ali Asghar Sotoudeh

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Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent regime change, internal conflicts between political and ethnic-religious groups have become a hallmark of Iraqi political dynamism. The most important manifestations of these conflicts are the Kurdish-central government conflicts, as well as fundamentalism since 2003. As a result, it seems not only US presence in Iraq under the pretext of fighting terrorism and expanding democracy has not had a positive effect on controlling fundamentalism and political stability in Iraq, but it has paved the way for the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in the form of disputes over territory and sources of power. In this regard, given the importance of the study, the main purpose of this study is to examine the process of the impact of US regime-change policy on the formation and continuation of geopolitical crises in Iraq. The central question of this study is, what effect has the US regime change policy had on Iraq's domestic political processes? Findings show that regime change and subsequent imposed federalism have widened the gaps in Iraq's sectarian-ethnic system. As a result, the geopolitical crisis in the context of the dispute over geographical territory and sources of power between ethnic-religious groups has become the most important political dynamic in Iraq since the occupation. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytical, and the data collection method is library and internet resources.

Keywords: Iraq, united states, geopolitical crisis, ethno-religious conflict, political federalism

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Authors: Gulsen Yilmaz

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Istanbul’s population has jumped by over 1 million in the past four years, to a level surpassing the overall population of 64 provinces in the country, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK). In this paper, Istanbul's population change and migration effects can be examined in detail Tarlabasi neighborhood cultural center of the city of Istanbul, Istiklal Street, which is located a few hundred meters away. Tarlabasi the end of the nineteenth century in the historic district with built in the early twentieth century, there are four or five storey historic buildings. Tarlabasi, here come from southeastern Turkey and the illegal African immigrants living in Roma origin by the Kurds as a residential area is used. In this area to improve the quality of life for urban renewal projects have been initiated. The aim of this paper is to explore the spatial effects of demographic change and migration with Tarlabasi example.

Keywords: migration, immigration, Tarlabaşı, urban transformation

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Authors: Ali Asgary, Haopeng Zhou, Ghassem Tofighi

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Use of virtual (VR), augmented reality (AR), and extended reality technologies for training and education has increased in recent years as more hardware and software tools have become available and accessible to larger groups of users. Similarly, the applications of these technologies in earthquake related training and education are on the rise. Several studies have reported promising results for the use of VR and AR for evacuation behaviour and training under earthquake situations. They simulate the impacts that earthquake has on buildings, buildings’ contents, and how building occupants and users can find safe spots or open paths to outside. Considering that considerable number of earthquake injuries and fatalities are linked to the behaviour, our goal is to use these technologies to reduce the impacts of building contents on people. Building on our artificial intelligence (AI) based indoor earthquake risk assessment application that enables users to use their mobile device to assess the risks associated with building contents during earthquakes, we develop a virtual reality application to demonstrate the behavior of different building contents during earthquakes, their associate moving, spreading, falling, and collapsing risks, and their risk mitigation methods. We integrate realistic seismic models, building contents behavior with and without risk mitigation measures in virtual reality environment. The application can be used for training of architects, interior design experts, and building users to enhance indoor safety of the buildings that can sustain earthquakes. This paper describes and demonstrates the application development background, structure, components, and usage.

Keywords: virtual reality, earthquake damage, building content, indoor risks, earthquake risk mitigation, interior design, unity game engine, oculus

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Authors: Gideon Baffoe, Hirotaka Matsuda

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Rural livelihood systems are known to be inherently vulnerable. Attempt to reduce vulnerability is linked to developing resilience to both internal and external shocks, thereby increasing the overall sustainability of livelihood systems. The shocks and stresses could be induced by natural processes such as the climate and/or by social dynamics such as institutional failure. In this wise, livelihood vulnerability is understood as a combined effect of biophysical, economic, and social processes. However, previous empirical studies on livelihood vulnerability in the context of rural areas across the globe have tended to focus more on climate-induced vulnerability assessment with few studies empirically partially considering the multiple dimensions of livelihood vulnerability. This has left a gap in our understanding of the subject. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), this study aims to comprehensively assess the livelihood vulnerability level of rural households using Ehiamenkyene, a community in the forest zone of Eastern Ghana as a case study. Though the present study adopts the LVI approach, it differs from the original framework in two respects; (1) it introduces institutional influence into the framework and (2) it appreciates the gender differences in livelihood vulnerability. The study utilized empirical data collected from 110 households’ in the community. The overall study results show a high livelihood vulnerability situation in the community with male-headed households likely to be more vulnerable than their female counterparts. Out of the seven subcomponents assessed, only two (socio-demographic profile and livelihood strategies) recorded low vulnerability scores of less than 0.5 with the remaining five (health status, food security, water accessibility, institutional influence and natural disasters and climate variability) recording scores above 0.5, with institutional influence being the component with the highest impact score. The results suggest that to improve the livelihood conditions of the people; there is the need to prioritize issues related to the operations of both internal and external institutions, health status, food security, water and climate variability in the community.

Keywords: assessment, gender, livelihood, rural, vulnerability

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Authors: Georg Ebner

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The National Defence Academy, an element of the Austrian Ministry of Defence, is undergoing a transition process leading the Academy towards a new target structure that is currently being developed. In so doing, in addition to a subject-oriented approach, also an employee-oriented process was introduced. This process was initiated by the Ministry of Defence and should lead the National Defence Academy into a new constellation. During this process, the National Defence Academy worked in very special adapted World Café sessions. The “change manager” dealed with very different issues. They took the data feedback from the sessions and prepared with the feedback and information from the guidance the next session. So they got various information and a very different picture around the academy. It was very helpful to involve most of the employees of the academy during this process and to take their knowledge and wisdom. The process himself started with very different feelings and ended with great consent. A very interesting part of this process was also that the commander and his deputy worked together during all of this sessions and they answered all questions from the employees in time. The adapted World Café phases were necessary to deal with the information of the staff and to implement these absolutely needful data into this process. In cooperation with the responsible Headquarters, the first items resulting from the World Café phases could already be fed back to the employees and be implemented. The staff-oriented process is currently supported via a point of contact, through which the staff can contribute ideas as well, but also by the active information policy on the part of the Headquarters. The described change process makes innovative innovations possible. So far, in the event of change processes staff members have been entrusted only with the concrete implementation plan and tied into the process when the respective workplaces were to be re-staffed. The procedure described here can be seen as food-for-thought for further change processes. The findings of this process are that a staff oriented process can lead an organisation into a new era of thinking and working. This process has shown, that a lot of innovative ideas can also take place in a ministry. This process can be a background for a lot of change management processes in ministries and governmental and non-governmental organisations.

Keywords: both directions approach, change management, knowledge database, transformation process, World Cafe

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Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle

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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk

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Authors: Andreia Cortes, Carla Pimentel-Rodrigues, Joao Almeida, Myriam Kanoun-Boule, Carla Carvalho, Antonio Tadeu, Armando Silva-Afonso

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The adoption of green infrastructure is nowadays encouraged as an essential measure of urban planning and territorial development whenever it offers a better alternative, or is complementary, to current solutions. Green walls and living facades often provide healthy alternatives to traditional grey infrastructures, offering many benefits for both citizens and cities. Beyond the ability to improve environmental conditions and quality of life, they can augment the energy efficiency of buildings, enhance biodiversity and deliver a range of ecosystem services such as water purification, reduction of the urban heat island effect, improvement of air quality and climate change adaptation. For this communication, a systematic survey of the existing green walls and living facades in Portugal was carried out. Different systems were analyzed and compared in terms of dimensions, constructive solutions, vegetative species, maintenance necessities and environmental aspects.

Keywords: green buildings, green walls, living facades, sustainability construction

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Authors: Ismaila H. Zarma, Mahmoud Ahmed, Shinichi Ookawara, Hamdi Abo-Ali

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Phase change materials (PCM) are an ideal thermal storage medium. They are characterized by a high latent heat, which allows them to store large amounts of energy when the material transitions into different physical states. Concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are widely recognized as the most efficient form of Photovoltaic (PV) for thermal energy which can be stored in Phase Change Materials (PCM). However, PCMs often have a low thermal conductivity which leads to a slow transient response. This makes it difficult to quickly store and access the energy stored within the PCM based systems, so there is need to improve transient responses and increase the thermal conductivity. The present study aims to investigate and analyze the melting and solidification process of phase change materials (PCMs) enhanced by nanoparticle contained in a container. Heat flux from concentrated photovoltaic is applied in an attempt to analyze the thermal performance and the impact of nanoparticles. The work will be realized by using a two dimensional model which take into account the phase change phenomena based on the principle of enthalpy method. Numerical simulations have been performed to investigate heat and flow characteristics by using governing equations, to ascertain the impacts of the nanoparticle loading. The Rayleigh number, sub-cooling as well as the unsteady evolution of the melting front and the velocity and temperature fields were also observed. The predicted results exhibited a good agreement, showing thermal enhancement due to present of nanoparticle which leads to decreasing the melting time.

Keywords: thermal energy storage, phase-change material, nanoparticle, concentrated photovoltaic

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Authors: Negin Binesh, Mohammad Hossein Niksokhan, Amin Sarang

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Best Management Practices (BMPs) are considered as one of the most important structural adaptive measures to climate change and urban development challenges in recent decades. However, not every location is appropriate for applying BMPs in the watersheds. In this paper, location prioritization of two kinds of BMPs was done: Pourous pavement and Detention pond. West Flood-Diversion (WFD) catchment in northern parts of Tehran, Iran, was considered as the case study. The methodology includes integrating the results of Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) into Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method using Geographic Information System (GIS). The results indicate that mostly suburban areas of the watershed in northern parts are appropriate for applying detention basin, and downstream high-density urban areas are more suitable for using permeable pavement.

Keywords: adaptive measures, BMPs, location prioritization, urban flooding

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Authors: Riofrio Jonathan, Fernandez Guillermo

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Renewable energy represented around 80% of the energy matrix for power generation in Ecuador during 2020, so the deployment of current public policies is focused on taking advantage of the high presence of renewable sources to carry out several electrification projects. These projects are part of the portfolio sent to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the established national determined contribution (NDC). In this sense, the Ecuadorian Organic Energy Efficiency Law (LOEE) published in 2019 promotes E-mobility as one of the main milestones. In fact, it states that the new vehicles for urban and interurban usage must be E-buses since 2025. As a result, and for a successful implementation of this technological change in a national context, it is important to deploy land surveys focused on technical and geographical areas to keep the quality of services in both the electricity and transport sectors. Therefore, this research presents a technological and energy comparison between a conventional diesel bus and its equivalent E-bus. Both vehicles fulfill all the technical requirements to ride in the study-case city, which is Ambato in the province of Tungurahua-Ecuador. In addition, the analysis includes the development of a model for the energy estimation of both technologies that are especially applied in a highland city such as Ambato. The altimetry of the most important bus routes in the city varies from 2557 to 3200 m.a.s.l., respectively, for the lowest and highest points. These operation conditions provide a grade of novelty to this paper. Complementary, the technical specifications of diesel buses are defined following the common features of buses registered in Ambato. On the other hand, the specifications for E-buses come from the most common units introduced in Latin America because there is not enough evidence in similar cities at the moment. The achieved results will be good input data for decision-makers since electric demand forecast, energy savings, costs, and greenhouse gases emissions are computed. Indeed, GHG is important because it allows reporting the transparency framework that it is part of the Paris Agreement. Finally, the presented results correspond to stage I of the called project “Analysis and Prospective of Electromobility in Ecuador and Energy Mix towards 2030” supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ).

Keywords: high altitude cities, energy planning, NDC, e-buses, e-mobility

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Authors: Ange Weinrabe, James Tran, Ian B. Hickie

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Risk-taking behaviour is common during youth. In the time between adolescence and early adulthood, young people (aged 15-25 years) are more vulnerable to mood disorders, such as anxiety and depression. What impact does an emerging mood disorder have on decision-making in youth at critical decision points in their lives? In this article, we explore the impact of risk and ambiguity on youth decision-making in a clinical setting using a well-known economic experiment. At two time points, separated by six to eight weeks, we measured risky and ambiguous choices concurrently with findings from three psychological questionnaires, the 10-item Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10), the 17-item Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology Adolescent Version (QIDS-A17), and the 12-item Somatic and Psychological Health Report (SPHERE-12), for young help seekers aged 16-25 (n=30, mean age 19.22 years, 19 males). When first arriving for care, we found that 50% (n=15) of participants experienced severe anxiety (K10 ≥ 30) and were severely depressed (QIDS-A17 ≥ 16). In Session 2, taking attrition rates into account (n=5), we found that 44% (n=11) remained severe across the full battery of questionnaires. When applying multiple regression analyses of the pooled sample of observations (N=55), across both sessions, we found that participants who rated severely anxious avoided making risky decisions. We suggest there is some statistically significant (although weak) (p=0.09) relation between risk and severe anxiety scores as measured by K10. Our findings may support working with novel tools with which to evaluate youth experiencing an emerging mood disorder and their cognitive capacities influencing decision-making.

Keywords: anxiety, decision-making, risk, adolescence

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Authors: S. Ramteke, K. S. Patel

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Aerosols are complex mixture of particulate matters (PM) inclusive of carbons, silica, elements, various salts, etc. Aerosols get deep into the human lungs and cause a broad range of health effects, in particular, respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. They are one of the major culprits for the climate change. They are emitted by the high thermal processes i.e. vehicles, steel, sponge, cement, thermal power plants, etc. Raipur (22˚33'N to 21˚14'N and 82˚6'E) to 81˚38'E) is a growing industrial city in central India with population of two million. In this work, the distribution of inorganics (i.e. Cl⁻, NO³⁻, SO₄²⁻, NH₄⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb) associated to the PM in the ambient air is described. The PM₁₀ in ambient air of Raipur city was collected for duration of one year (December 2014 - December 2015). The PM₁₀ was segregated into nine modes i.e. PM₁₀.₀₋₉.₀, PM₉.₀₋₅.₈, PM₅.₈₋₄.₇, PM₄.₇₋₃.₃, PM₃.₃₋₂.₁, PM₂.₁₋₁.₁, PM₁.₁₋₀.₇, PM₀.₇₋₀.₄ and PM₀.₄ to know their emission sources and health hazards. The analysis of ions and metals was carried out by techniques i.e. ion chromatography and TXRF. The PM₁₀ concentration (n=48) was ranged from 100-450 µg/m³ with mean value of 73.57±20.82 µg/m³. The highest concentration of PM₄.₇₋₃.₃, PM₂.₁₋₁.₁, PM₁.₁₋₀.₇ was observed in the commercial, residential and industrial area, respectively. The effect of meteorology i.e. temperature, humidity, wind speed and wind direction in the PM₁₀ and associated elemental concentration in the air is discussed.

Keywords: ambient aerosol, ions, metals, segregation

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Authors: Gampel Alexander, Mazzuchi Thomas, Sarkani Shahram

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The cybersecurity landscape is constantly evolving, and organizations must adapt to the changing threat environment to protect their assets. The implementation of the NIST Risk Management Framework (RMF) has become critical in ensuring the security and safety of industrial control and automation systems. However, cybersecurity professionals are facing challenges in implementing RMF, leading to systems operating without authorization and being non-compliant with regulations. The current approach to RMF implementation based on business practices is limited and insufficient, leaving organizations vulnerable to cyberattacks resulting in the loss of personal consumer data and critical infrastructure details. To address these challenges, this research proposes a Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) approach to implementing cybersecurity controls and assessing risk through the RMF process. The study emphasizes the need to shift to a modeling approach, which can streamline the RMF process and eliminate bloated structures that make it difficult to receive an Authorization-To-Operate (ATO). The study focuses on the practical application of MBSE in industrial control and automation systems to improve the security and safety of operations. It is concluded that MBSE can be used to solve the implementation challenges of the NIST RMF process and improve the security of industrial control and automation systems. The research suggests that MBSE provides a more effective and efficient method for implementing cybersecurity controls and assessing risk through the RMF process. The future work for this research involves exploring the broader applicability of MBSE in different industries and domains. The study suggests that the MBSE approach can be applied to other domains beyond industrial control and automation systems.

Keywords: authorization-to-operate (ATO), industrial control systems (ICS), model-based system’s engineering (MBSE), risk management framework (RMF)

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Authors: İlhami Karahanoglu, Oguz Ceylan

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As its well-known definitions; systemic risk refers to whole economic system down-turn movement even collapse together in very severe cases. In fact, it points out the contagion effects of the defaults. Such a risk is can be depicted with the famous Chinese game of falling domino stones. During and after the Bear & Sterns and Lehman Brothers cases, it was well understood that there is a very strong effect of systemic risk in financial services sector. In this study, we concentrate on the existence of systemic risk in Turkish Banking Sector based upon the Halkbank Case during the end month of 2013; there was a political turmoil in Turkey in which the close relatives of the upper politicians were involved in illegal trading activities. In that operation, the CEO of Halkbank was also arrested and in investigation, Halkbank was considered as part of such illegal actions. That operation had an impact on Halkbanks stock value. The Halkbank stock value during that time interval decreased remarkably, the distributional profile of stock return changed and became more volatile as well as more skewed. In this study, the daily returns of 5 leading banks in Turkish banking sector were used to obtain 48 return distributions (for each month, 90-days-back stock value returns are used) of 5 banks for the period 12/2011-12/2013 (pre operation period) and 12/2013-12/2015 (post operation period). When those distributions are compared with timely manner, interestingly; the distribution of the 5 other leading banks in Turkey, public or private, had also distribution profiles which was different from the past 2011-2013 period just like Halkbank. Those 5 big banks, whose stock values are monitored with sub index in Istanbul stock exchange (BIST) as BN10, had more skewed distribution just following the Halkbank stock return movement during the post operation period, with lover mean value and as well higher volatility. In addition, the correlation between the stock value return distributions of the leading banks after Halkbank case, where the returns are more skewed to the left, increased (which is measured in monthly base before and after the operation). The dependence between those banks was stronger under the case where the stock values were falling compared with the normal market condition. Such distributional effect of stock returns between the leading banks in Turkey, which is valid for down sub-market (financial/banking sector) condition, can be evaluated as an evidence for the existence of contagious effect and systemic risk.

Keywords: financial risk, systemic risk, banking sector, return distribution, dependency structure

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Authors: Yuki Irie, Shota Ogawa, Hitomi Kosugi, Hiromitsu Shinozaki

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Background: Dropout from higher educational institutions is a major problem both for students and institutions, and poor mental health is one of the risk factors. Medical college students are at higher risk of poor mental health than general students because of their hard academic schedules. On the other hand, food insecurity has negative impacts on mental health. The healthcare college of the project site is located heavily snowy area. The students without own vehicles may be at higher risk of food insecurity, especially in the winter season. Therefore, they have many risks to mental health. The aim of the study is to clarify the relationship between mental health and its risk factors to promote students’ mental well-being. Method: A cross-sectional design was used to investigate the relationship between mental health status and lifestyle, including diet and food security among the students (n=421, 147 male, 274 females; 20.7 ± 2.8 years old). Participants were required to answer 3 questionnaires which consisted of diet, lifestyle, food security, and mental health. The survey was conducted during the snowy season from Dec. 2022 to Jan. 2023. Results: Mean mental score was 6.7±4.6 (max. score 27, a higher score means worse mental health). Significant risk factors in mental health were breakfast habit (p=0.02), subjective dietary habit (p=0.00), subjective health (p=0.00), exercise habit (p=0.02), food insecurity in the winter season (p=0.01), and vitamin A intakes (p=0.03). Conclusions: Nutrients intakes are not associated with mental health except vitamin A; however, some other lifestyle factors are significantly associated with mental health. Nutrition doesn’t lead to poor mental health directly; however, the promotion of a healthy lifestyle and improved food security in winter may be effective in better mental health.

Keywords: mental health, winter, lifestyle, students

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Authors: Martin Kleynhans, Margot Soler, Gavin Quibell

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Malawi is one of the world’s poorest nations and consequently, the design of flood risk management infrastructure comes with a different set of challenges. There is a lack of good quality hydromet data, both in spatial terms and in the quality thereof and the challenge in the design of flood risk management infrastructure is compounded by the fact that maintenance is almost completely non-existent and that solutions have to be simple to be effective. Solutions should not require any further resources to remain functional after completion, and they should be resilient. They also have to be cost effective. The Lower Shire Valley of Malawi suffers from frequent flood events. Various flood risk management interventions have been designed across the valley during the course of the Shire River Basin Management Project – Phase I, and due to the data poor environment, indigenous knowledge was relied upon to a great extent for hydrological and hydraulic model calibration and verification. However, indigenous knowledge comes with the caveat that it is ‘fuzzy’ and that it can be manipulated for political reasons. The experience in the Lower Shire valley suggests that indigenous knowledge is unlikely to invent a problem where none exists, but that flood depths and extents may be exaggerated to secure prioritization of the intervention. Indigenous knowledge relies on the memory of a community and cannot foresee events that exceed past experience, that could occur differently to those that have occurred in the past, or where flood management interventions change the flow regime. This complicates communication of planned interventions to local inhabitants. Indigenous knowledge is, for the most part, intuitive, but flooding can sometimes be counter intuitive, and the rural poor may have a lower trust of technology. Due to a near complete lack of maintenance of infrastructure, infrastructure has to be designed with no moving parts and no requirement for energy inputs. This precludes pumps, valves, flap gates and sophisticated warning systems. Designs of dykes during this project included ‘flood warning spillways’, that double up as pedestrian and animal crossing points, which provide warning of impending dangerous water levels behind dykes to residents before water levels that could cause a possible dyke failure are reached. Locally available materials and erosion protection using vegetation were used wherever possible to keep costs down.

Keywords: design of dykes in low-income countries, flood warning spillways, indigenous knowledge, Malawi

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Authors: Chia-Chi Cheng

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After the implementation of “the internet plus,” several puzzles emerge as below: why does China impose more regulation and laws on economic development on the Internet? Why does China urge the importance of manufacturing industry? Why does China’s local government passively implement the policy imposed by the central government? What kind of factors can influence China’s local government’s economic preference? In the framework of neo-institutionalism, this research considers China’s local government as changing agents to analyze its preferences and behavior. In general, the interests urged by the local government will decide its preference and behaviors. They will change its counterpart to cooperate if the change will bring more benefits. Thus, they will change its preference and behavior while the external environment alters. While the local government has the same definition on political activity and economic interest, they will prefer to cooperate with the local enterprises in the way of laying symbiont, within the presumption that the institution remains. While the local government has the different positions on political activity and economic interest, they will re-define the existed regulation or create new regulation in the condition of institution vacuum. Sequentially, they will replace the targets, and the policy, which does not fit in the Central government’s policy, will emerge.

Keywords: China, institutional change, government enterprise relationship, e-commercial policy

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Authors: Corinna Zeli, Silvia Calati, Marco Simeoni, Chiara Comastri

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Developmental stuttering affects about 10% of preschool children; although the high percentage of natural recovery, a quarter of them will become an adult who stutters. An effective early intervention should help those children with high persistence risk for the future. The Psicodizione method for early stuttering is an Italian behavior indirect treatment for preschool children who stutter in which method parents act as good guides for communication, modeling their own fluency. In this study, we give a preliminary measure to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of Psicodizione method on stuttering preschool children with a high persistence risk. Among all Italian children treated with the Psicodizione method between 2018 and 2019, we selected 8 kids with at least 3 high risk persistence factors from the Illinois Prediction Criteria proposed by Yairi and Seery. The factors chosen for the selection were: one parent who stutters (1pt mother; 1.5pt father), male gender, ≥ 4 years old at onset; ≥ 12 months from onset of symptoms before treatment. For this study, the families were contacted after an average period of time of 14,7 months (range 3 - 26 months). Parental reports were gathered with a standard online questionnaire in order to obtain data reflecting fluency from a wide range of the children’s life situations. The minimum worthwhile outcome was set at "mild evidence" in a 5 point Likert scale (1 mild evidence- 5 high severity evidence). A second group of 6 children, among those treated with the Piscodizione method, was selected as high potential for spontaneous remission (low persistence risk). The children in this group had to fulfill all the following criteria: female gender, symptoms for less than 12 months (before treatment), age of onset <4 years old, none of the parents with persistent stuttering. At the time of this follow-up, the children were aged 6–9 years, with a mean of 15 months post-treatment. Among the children in the high persistence risk group, 2 (25%) hadn’t had stutter anymore, and 3 (37,5%) had mild stutter based on parental reports. In the low persistency risk group, the children were aged 4–6 years, with a mean of 14 months post-treatment, and 5 (84%) hadn’t had stutter anymore (for the past 16 months on average).62,5% of children at high risk of persistence after Psicodizione treatment showed mild evidence of stutter at most. 75% of parents confirmed a better fluency than before the treatment. The low persistence risk group seemed to be representative of spontaneous recovery. This study’s design could help to better evaluate the success of the proposed interventions for stuttering preschool children and provides a preliminary measure of the effectiveness of the Psicodizione method on high persistence risk children.

Keywords: early treatment, fluency, preschool children, stuttering

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Authors: Pei-Ti Hsu, I-Ju Chen, Jeu-Jung Chen, Cheng-Fen Chang, Shiu-Yan Yang

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Taiwan now is an aging society Research on the elderly should not be confined to caring for seniors, but should also be focused on ways to improve health and the quality of life. Senior citizens who participate in volunteer services could become less lonely, have new growth opportunities, and regain a sense of accomplishment. Thus, the question of how to get the elderly to participate in volunteer service is worth exploring. Apply the Transtheoretical Model to understand stages of change in regular volunteer service and voluntary service behaviour among the seniors. 1525 adults over the age of 65 from the Renai district of Keelung City were interviewed. The research tool was a self-constructed questionnaire and individual interviews were conducted to collect data. Then the data was processed and analyzed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 20 (Windows version) statistical software program. In the past six months, research subjects averaged 9.92 days of volunteer services. A majority of these elderly individuals had no intention to change their regular volunteer services. We discovered that during the maintenance stage, the self-efficacy for volunteer services was higher than during all other stages, but self-perceived barriers were less during the preparation stage and action stage. Self-perceived benefits were found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in the previous stage, and self-efficacy was found to have an important predictive power for those with regular volunteer service behaviors in later stages. The research results support the conclusion that community nursing staff should group elders based on their regular volunteer services change stages and design appropriate behavioral change strategies.

Keywords: seniors, stages of change in regular volunteer services, volunteer service behavior, self-efficacy, self-perceived benefits

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Authors: M. Akif Ceviz, Alirıza Kaleli, Erdoğan Güner

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LPG pressure regulator is a device which is used to change the phase of LPG from liquid to gas by decreasing the pressure. During the phase change, it is necessary to supply the latent heat of LPG to prevent excessive low temperature. Engine coolant is circulated in the pressure regulator for this purpose. Therefore, pressure regulator is a type of heat exchanger that should be designed for different engine operating conditions. The design of the regulator should ensure that the flow of LPG is in gaseous phase to the injectors during the engine steady state and transient operating conditions. The pressure regulators in the LPG gaseous injection systems currently used can easily change the phase of LPG, however, there is no any control on the LPG temperature in conventional LPG injection systems. It is possible to increase temperature excessively. In this study, a control unit has been tested to keep the LPG temperature in a band. Result of the study showed that the engine performance characteristics can be increased by using the system.

Keywords: temperature, pressure regulator, LPG, PID

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Authors: Pedro Pablo Ramírez Sánchez, Alassane Ballé Ndiaye, Roberto Rendeiro Martín-Cejas

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The aim of this paper is to analyse the different environmental policies adopted in Europe for car emissions, to comment on some of the possible perverse effects generated and point out these policies which are considered more efficient under the environmental perspective. This paper is focused on passenger cars as this category is the most significant in road transport. The utility of this research lies in this being the first step or basis to improve and optimise actual policies. The methodology applied in this paper refers to a comparative analysis from a practical and theoretical point of view of European environmental policies in road transport. This work describes an overview of the road transport industry in Europe pointing out some relevant aspects such as the contribution of road transport to total emissions and the vehicle fleet in Europe. Additionally, we propose a brief practice guide with the combined policies in order to optimise their aim.

Keywords: air quality, climate change, emission, environment, perverse effect, road transport, tax policy

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Authors: Kottaridi Klimentia, Demopoulos Vasilis, Sidiropoulos Anastasios, Ihara Diego, Nikolaidis Vasileios, Antonopoulos Dimitrios

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Aflatoxins are highly poisonous and carcinogenic compounds produced by species of the genus Aspergillus spp. that can infect a variety of agricultural foods, including dried figs. Biological and environmental factors, such as population, pathogenicity, and aflatoxinogenic capacity of the strains, topography, soil, and climate parameters of the fig orchards, are believed to have a strong effect on aflatoxin levels. Existing methods for aflatoxin detection and measurement, such as high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), can provide accurate results, but the procedures are usually time-consuming, sample-destructive, and expensive. Predicting aflatoxin levels prior to crop harvest is useful for minimizing the health and financial impact of a contaminated crop. Consequently, there is interest in developing a tool that predicts aflatoxin levels based on topography and soil analysis data of fig orchards. This paper describes the development of a risk assessment tool for the contamination of aflatoxin on dried figs, based on the location and altitude of the fig orchards, the population of the fungus Aspergillus spp. in the soil, and soil parameters such as pH, saturation percentage (SP), electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter, particle size analysis (sand, silt, clay), the concentration of the exchangeable cations (Ca, Mg, K, Na), extractable P, and trace of elements (B, Fe, Mn, Zn and Cu), by employing machine learning methods. In particular, our proposed method integrates three machine learning techniques, i.e., dimensionality reduction on the original dataset (principal component analysis), metric learning (Mahalanobis metric for clustering), and k-nearest neighbors learning algorithm (KNN), into an enhanced model, with mean performance equal to 85% by terms of the Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) between observed and predicted values.

Keywords: aflatoxins, Aspergillus spp., dried figs, k-nearest neighbors, machine learning, prediction

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Authors: Marjan Mahdavi-Roshan, Arsalan Salari, Mahboobeh Gholipour, Moona Naghshbandi

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Background and objectives: Before any nutritional intervention, it is necessary to have the prospect of eating habits of people with cardiovascular risk factors. In this study, we assessed the adherence of healthy diet based on Mediterranean dietary pattern and related factors in adults in the north of Iran. Methods: This study was conducted on 550 men and women with cardiovascular risk factors that referred to Heshmat hospital in Rasht, northern Iran. Information was collected by interview and reading medical history and measuring anthropometric indexes. The Mediterranean Diet Adherence Screener was used for assessing dietary adherence, this screener was modified according to religious beliefs and culture of Iran. Results: The mean age of participants was 58±0.38 years. The mean of body mass index was 27±0.01 kg/m², and the mean of waist circumference was 98±0.2 cm. The mean of dietary adherence was 5.76±0.07. 45% of participants had low adherence, and just 4% had suitable adherence. The mean of dietary adherence in men was significantly higher than women (p=0. 07). Participants in rural area and high educational participants insignificantly had an unsuitable dietary Adherence. There was no significant association between some cardiovascular disease risk factors and dietary adherence. Conclusion: Education to different group about dietary intake correction and using a Mediterranean dietary pattern that is similar to dietary intake in the north of Iran, for controlling cardiovascular disease is necessary.

Keywords: dietary adherence, Mediterranean dietary pattern, cardiovascular disease, north of Iran

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Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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Authors: Kapil Pandey, Vishnu Goyal

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Spatial and temporal data analysis is very well known in the field of satellite image processing. When spatial data are correlated with time, series analysis it gives the significant results in change detection studies. In this paper the GIS and Remote sensing techniques has been used to find the change detection using time series satellite imagery of Uttarakhand state during the years of 1990-2010. Natural vegetation, urban area, forest cover etc. were chosen as main landuse classes to study. Landuse/ landcover classes within several years were prepared using satellite images. Maximum likelihood supervised classification technique was adopted in this work and finally landuse change index has been generated and graphical models were used to present the changes.

Keywords: GIS, landuse/landcover, spatial and temporal data, remote sensing

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Authors: Minjung Maing, Sibei Liu

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This research discusses the results of a study of window opening behavior of large housing developments in the high-density megacity of Hong Kong. The methods used for the study involved field observations using photo documentation of the four cardinal elevations (north, south-east, and west) of two large housing developments in a very dense urban area of approx. 46,000 persons per square meter within the city of Hong Kong. The targeted housing developments (A and B) are large public housing with a population of about 13,000 in each development of lower income. However, the mean income level in development A is about 40% higher than development B and home ownership is 60% in development A and 0% in development B. Mapping of the surrounding amenities and layout of the developments were also studied to understand the available activities to the residents. The photo documentation of the elevations was taken from November 2016 to February 2018 to gather a full spectrum of different seasons and both in the morning and afternoon (am/pm) times. From the photograph, the window opening behavior was measured by counting the amount of windows opened as a percentage of all the windows on that façade. For each date of survey data collected, weather data was recorded from weather stations located in the same region to collect temperature, humidity and wind speed. To further understand the behavior, simulation studies of microclimate conditions of the housing development was conducted using the software ENVI-met, a widely used simulation tool by researchers studying urban climate. Four major conclusions can be drawn from the data analysis and simulation results. Firstly, there is little change in the amount of window opening during the different seasons within a temperature range of 10 to 35 degrees Celsius. This means that people who tend to open their windows have consistent window opening behavior throughout the year and high tolerance of indoor thermal conditions. Secondly, for all four elevations the lower-income development B opened more windows (almost two times more units) than higher-income development A meaning window opening behavior had strong correlations with income level. Thirdly, there is a lack of correlation between outdoor horizontal wind speed and window opening behavior, as the changes of wind speed do not seem to affect the action of opening windows in most conditions. Similar to the low correlation between horizontal wind speed and window opening percentage, it is found that vertical wind speed also cannot explain the window opening behavior of occupants. Fourthly, there is a slightly higher average of window opening on the south elevation than the north elevation, which may be due to the south elevation being well shaded from high angle sun during the summer and allowing heat into units from lower angle sun during the winter season. These findings are important to providing insight into how to better design urban environments and indoor thermal environments for a liveable high density city.

Keywords: high-density housing, subtropical climate, urban behavior, window opening

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Authors: Sarah Mueller-Saegebrecht, André Brendler

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Business model innovation (BMI) as an intentional change of an existing business model (BM) or the design of a new BM is essential to a firm's development in dynamic markets. The relevance of BMI is also evident in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, in which start-ups, in particular, are affected by limited access to resources. However, first studies also show that they react faster to the pandemic than established firms. A strategy to successfully handle such threatening dynamic changes represents BMI. Entrepreneurship literature shows how and when firms should utilize BMI in times of crisis and which barriers one can expect during the BMI process. Nevertheless, research merging BMI barriers and crises is still underexplored. Specifically, further knowledge about antecedents and the effect of moderators on the BMI process is necessary for advancing BMI research. The addressed research gap of this study is two-folded: First, foundations to the subject on how different crises impact BM change intention exist, yet their analysis lacks the inclusion of barriers. Especially, entrepreneurship literature lacks knowledge about the individual perception of BMI barriers, which is essential to predict managerial reactions. Moreover, internal BMI barriers have been the focal point of current research, while external BMI barriers remain virtually understudied. Second, to date, BMI research is based on qualitative methodologies. Thus, a lack of quantitative work can specify and confirm these qualitative findings. By focusing on the crisis context, this study contributes to BMI literature by offering a first quantitative attempt to embed BMI barriers into a structural equation model. It measures managers' perception of BMI development and implementation barriers in the BMI process, asking the following research question: How does a manager's perception of BMI barriers influence BMI development and implementation in times of crisis? Two distinct research streams in economic literature explain how individuals react when perceiving a threat. "Prospect Theory" claims that managers demonstrate risk-seeking tendencies when facing a potential loss, and opposing "Threat-Rigidity Theory" suggests that managers demonstrate risk-averse behavior when facing a potential loss. This study quantitively tests which theory can best predict managers' BM reaction to a perceived crisis. Out of three in-depth interviews in the German chemical industry, 60 past BMIs were identified. The participating start-up managers gave insights into their start-up's strategic and operational functioning. After, each interviewee described crises that had already affected their BM. The participants explained how they conducted BMI to overcome these crises, which development and implementation barriers they faced, and how severe they perceived them, assessed on a 5-point Likert scale. In contrast to current research, results reveal that a higher perceived threat level of a crisis harms BM experimentation. Managers seem to conduct less BMI in times of crisis, whereby BMI development barriers dampen this relation. The structural equation model unveils a mediating role of BMI implementation barriers on the link between the intention to change a BM and the concrete BMI implementation. In conclusion, this study confirms the threat-rigidity theory.

Keywords: barrier perception, business model innovation, business model innovation barriers, crises, prospect theory, start-ups, structural equation model, threat-rigidity theory

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: Janani Selvaraj, M. Prashanthi Devi, P. B. Harathi

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Epidemiologic studies conducted over several decades have provided evidence to suggest that long-term exposure to elevated ambient levels of particulate air pollution is associated with increased mortality. Air quality risk management is significant in developing countries and it highlights the need to understand the role of ecologic covariates in the association between air pollution and mortality. Several new methods show promise in exploring the geographical distribution of disease and the identification of high risk areas using epidemiological maps. However, the addition of the temporal attribute would further give us an in depth idea of the disease burden with respect to forecasting measures. In recent years, new methods developed in the reanalysis were useful for exploring the spatial structure of the data and the impact of spatial autocorrelation on estimates of risk associated with exposure to air pollution. Based on this, our present study aims to explore the spatial and temporal distribution of the lung cancer cases in the Coimbatore district of Tamil Nadu in relation to air pollution risk areas. A spatio temporal moving average method was computed using the CrimeStat software and visualized in ArcGIS 10.1 to document the spatio temporal movement of the disease in the study region. The random walk analysis performed showed the progress of the peak cancer incidences in the intersection regions of the Coimbatore North and South taluks that include major commercial and residential regions like Gandhipuram, Peelamedu, Ganapathy, etc. Our study shows evidence that daily exposure to high air pollutant concentration zones may lead to the risk of lung cancer. The observations from the present study will be useful in delineating high risk zones of environmental exposure that contribute to the increase of cancer among daily commuters. Through our study we suggest that spatially resolved exposure models in relevant time frames will produce higher risks zones rather than solely on statistical theory about the impact of measurement error and the empirical findings.

Keywords: air pollution, cancer, spatio-temporal analysis, India

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