Search results for: pandemic. Economics variables shocks

Authors: Yanting Cao, Kazumitsu Nawata

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As smartphones upgrading, their software and hardware are getting smarter, so the smartphone-based human activity recognition will be described as more refined, complex, and detailed. In this context, we analyzed a set of experimental data obtained by observing and measuring 30 volunteers with six activities of daily living (ADL). Due to the large sample size, especially a 561-feature vector with time and frequency domain variables, cleaning these intractable features and training a proper model becomes extremely challenging. After a series of feature selection and parameters adjustment, a well-performed SVM classifier has been trained.

Keywords: smart sensors, human activity recognition, artificial intelligence, SVM

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Authors: Amit Gill, Lalith Wijerathne, Sebastian Poledna

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This research presents the details of the implementation of high performance computing (HPC) extension of agent-based economic models (ABEMs) to simulate hundreds of millions of heterogeneous agents. ABEMs offer an alternative approach to study the economy as a dynamic system of interacting heterogeneous agents, and are gaining popularity as an alternative to standard economic models. Over the last decade, ABEMs have been increasingly applied to study various problems related to monetary policy, bank regulations, etc. When it comes to predicting the effects of local economic disruptions, like major disasters, changes in policies, exogenous shocks, etc., on the economy of the country or the region, it is pertinent to study how the disruptions cascade through every single economic entity affecting its decisions and interactions, and eventually affect the economic macro parameters. However, such simulations with hundreds of millions of agents are hindered by the lack of HPC enhanced ABEMs. In order to address this, a scalable Distributed Memory Parallel (DMP) implementation of ABEMs has been developed using message passing interface (MPI). A balanced distribution of computational load among MPI-processes (i.e. CPU cores) of computer clusters while taking all the interactions among agents into account is a major challenge for scalable DMP implementations. Economic agents interact on several random graphs, some of which are centralized (e.g. credit networks, etc.) whereas others are dense with random links (e.g. consumption markets, etc.). The agents are partitioned into mutually-exclusive subsets based on a representative employer-employee interaction graph, while the remaining graphs are made available at a minimum communication cost. To minimize the number of communications among MPI processes, real-life solutions like the introduction of recruitment agencies, sales outlets, local banks, and local branches of government in each MPI-process, are adopted. Efficient communication among MPI-processes is achieved by combining MPI derived data types with the new features of the latest MPI functions. Most of the communications are overlapped with computations, thereby significantly reducing the communication overhead. The current implementation is capable of simulating a small open economy. As an example, a single time step of a 1:1 scale model of Austria (i.e. about 9 million inhabitants and 600,000 businesses) can be simulated in 15 seconds. The implementation is further being enhanced to simulate 1:1 model of Euro-zone (i.e. 322 million agents).

Keywords: agent-based economic model, high performance computing, MPI-communication, MPI-process

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Authors: E. Al Daoud

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In many cases, theoretical treatments are available for models for which there is no perfect physical realization. In this situation, the only possible test for an approximate theoretical solution is to compare with data generated from a computer simulation. In this paper, Monte Carlo tools are used to study and compare the elementary particles models. All the experiments are implemented using 10000 events, and the simulated energy is 13 TeV. The mean and the curves of several variables are calculated for each model using MadAnalysis 5. Anomalies in the results can be seen in the muons masses of the minimal supersymmetric standard model and the two Higgs doublet model.

Keywords: Feynman rules, hadrons, Lagrangian, Monte Carlo, simulation

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Authors: Tejasvi Parupudi, Mochen Li, Lakshya Mittal, Ignacio G. Camarillo, Raji Sundararajan

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With breast cancer becoming a global pandemic, it is very important to assess a woman’s risk profile accurately in a timely manner. Providing an estimate of the risk of developing breast cancer to a woman gives her an opportunity to consider options to decrease this risk. Women at low risk may be suggested yearly screenings whereas women with a high risk of developing breast cancer would be candidates for aggressive surveillance. Fortunately, there is a set of risk factors that are used to predict the probability of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer in the future. Studying risk factors and understanding how they correlate to cancer is important for early diagnosis, prevention and reducing mortality rates. The effect of crucial risk factors among black and white women was compared in this study. The various risk factors analyzed include breast density, age, cancer in a first-degree relative, menopausal status, body mass index (BMI) and prior breast cancer diagnosis, etc. Breast density, age at first full-term birth and BMI were utilized in this study as important risk factors for the comparison of incidence rates between women of black and white races in the USA. Understanding the differences could lead to the development of solutions to reduce disparity in mortality rates among black women by improving overall access to care.

Keywords: big data, breast cancer, risk factors, incidence rates, mortality, race

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Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, R. Dhouieb, S. Saadi, M. A. Mesrati, A. Chadly

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Introduction: The hyoid bone is considered as one of many bones used to identify a missed person. There is a specificity of each population group in human identifications. Objective: To analyze the relationship between age, sex and metric parameters of hyoid bone in Tunisian population sample, using CT-scan. Materials and Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the Department of Forensic Medicine of FattoumaBourguiba Hospital of Monastir-Tunisia during 4 years. A total of 240 samples of hyoid bone were studied. The age of cases ranged from 18 days to 81 years. The specimens were collected only from the deceased of known age. Once dried, each hyoid bone was scanned using CT scan. For each specimen, 10 measurements were taken using a computer program. The measurements consisted of 6 lengths and 4 widths. A regression analysis was used to estimate the relationship between age, sex, and different measurements. For age estimation, a multiple logistic regression was carried out for samples ≤ 35 years. For sex determination, ROC curve was performed. Discriminant value finally retained was based on the best specificity with the best sensitivity. Results: The correlation between real age and estimated age was good (r²=0.72) for samples aged 35 years or less. The unstandardised canonical function equation was estimated using three variables: maximum length of the right greater cornua, length from the middle of the left joint space to the middle of the right joint space and perpendicular length from the centre point of a line between the distal ends of the right and left greater cornua to the centre point of the anterior view of the body of the hyoid bone. For sex determination, the ROC curve analysis reveals that the area under curve was at 81.8%. Discriminant value was 0.451 with a specificity of 73% and sensibility of 79%. The equation function was estimated based on two variables: maximum length of the greater cornua and maximum length of the hyoid bone. Conclusion: The findings of the current study suggest that metric analysis of the hyoid bone may predict the age ≤ 35 years. Sex estimation seems to be more reliable. Further studies dealing with the fusion of the hyoid bone and the current study could help to achieve more accurate age estimation rates.

Keywords: anthropology, age estimation, CT scan, sex determination, Tunisia

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Authors: Pritika Ramharack, Mahmoud E. S. Soliman

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The re-emerging Zika virus is an arthropod-borne virus that has been described to have explosive potential as a worldwide pandemic. The initial transmission of the virus was through a mosquito vector, however, evolving modes of transmission has allowed the spread of the disease over continents. The virus already been linked to irreversible chronic central nervous system (CNS) conditions. The concerns of the scientific and clinical community are the consequences of Zika viral mutations, thus suggesting the urgent need for viral inhibitors. There have been large strides in vaccine development against the virus but there are still no FDA-approved drugs available. Rapid rational drug design and discovery research is fundamental in the production of potent inhibitors against the virus that will not just mask the virus, but destroy it completely. In silico drug design allows for this prompt screening of potential leads, thus decreasing the consumption of precious time and resources. This study demonstrates an optimized and proven screening technique in the discovery of two potential small molecule inhibitors of Zika virus Methyltransferase and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. This in silico “per-residue energy decomposition pharmacophore” virtual screening approach will be critical in aiding scientists in the discovery of not only effective inhibitors of Zika viral targets, but also a wide range of anti-viral agents.

Keywords: NS5 protein inhibitors, per-residue decomposition, pharmacophore model, virtual screening, Zika virus

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Authors: O. Fatemi

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Considering growing building construction industry in developing countries and sustainable development concept, as well as the importance of taking care of the future generations, codifying buildings scoring system based on environmental criteria, has always been a subject for discussion. The existing systems cannot be used for all the regions due to several reasons, including but not limited to variety in regional variables. In this article, the most important common LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) and BREEAM (Building Research Establishment Environmental Assessment Method) common and Global environmental scoring systems, used in UK, USA, and Japan, respectively, have been discussed and compared with a special focus on CASBEE (Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Efficiency), to credit assigning field (weighing and scores systems) as well as sustainable development criteria in each system. Then, converging and distinct fields of the foregoing systems are examined considering National Iranian Building Code. Furthermore, the common credits in the said systems not mentioned in National Iranian Building Code have been identified. These credits, which are generally included in well-known fundamental principles in sustainable development, may be considered as offered options for the Iranian building environmental scoring system. It is suggested that one of the globally and commonly accepted systems is chosen considering national priorities in order to offer an effective method for buildings environmental scoring, and then, a part of credits is added and/or removed, or a certain credit score is changed, and eventually, a new scoring system with a new title is developed for the country. Evidently, building construction industry highly affects the environment, economy, efficiency, and health of the relevant occupants. Considering the growing trend of cities and construction, achieving building scoring systems based on environmental criteria has always been a matter of discussion. The existing systems cannot be used for all the regions due to several reasons, including but not limited to variety in regional variables.

Keywords: scoring system, sustainability assessment, water efficiency, national Iranian building code

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Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

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Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

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Authors: M. Bredice, M. B. Forleo, L. Quici

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Coastal tourism is currently facing huge challenges on how to balance environmental problems and tourist activities. Recent literature shows a growing interest in the issue of sustainable tourism from a so-called civilized tourists’ perspective by investigating opinions, perceptions, and behaviors. This study investigates the opinions of youth on what makes them responsible tourists and the ability of coastal marine areas to support tourism in future scenarios. A sample of 778 Italians attending the last year of high school was interviewed. Descriptive statistics, tests, and cluster analyses are applied to highlight the distribution of opinions among youth, detect significant differences based on demographic characteristics, and make segmentation of the different profiles based on students’ opinions and behaviors. Preliminary results show that students are largely convinced (62%) that by 2050 the quality of coastal environments could limit seaside tourism, while 10% of them believe that the problem can be solved simply by changing the tourist destination. Besides the cost of the holiday, the most relevant aspect respondents consider when choosing a marine destination is the presence of tourist attractions followed by the quality of the marine-coastal environment, the specificity of the local gastronomy and cultural traditions, and finally, the activities offered to guests such as sports and events. The reduction of waste and lower air emissions are considered the most important environmental areas in which marine-coastal tourism activities can contribute to preserving the quality of seas and coasts. Areas in which, as a tourist, they believe possible to give a personal contribution were (responses “very much” and “somewhat”); do not throw litter in the sea and on the beach (84%), do not buy single-use plastic products (66%), do not use soap or shampoo when showering in beaches (53%), do not have bonfires (47%), do not damage dunes (46%), and do not remove natural materials (e.g., sand, shells) from the beach (46%). About 6% of the sample stated that they were not interested in contributing to the aforementioned activities, while another 7% replied that they could not contribute at all. Finally, 80% of the sample has never participated in voluntary environmental initiatives or citizen science projects; moreover, about 64% of the students have never participated in events organized by environmental associations in marine or coastal areas. Regarding the test analysis -based on Kruskal-Wallis and Mann and Whitney tests - gender, region, and studying area of students reveals significance in terms of variables expressing knowledge and interest in sustainability topics and sustainable tourism behaviors. The classification of the education field is significant for a great number of variables, among which those related to several sustainable behaviors that respondents declare to be able to contribute as tourists. The ongoing cluster analysis will reveal different profiles in the sample and relevant variables. Based on preliminary results, implications are envisaged in the fields of education, policy, and business strategies for sustainable scenarios. Under these perspectives, the study has the potential to contribute to the conference debate about marine and coastal sustainable development and management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, education, knowledge, young people

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Authors: Carolina Busco, Daniela Osses

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The development of digital literacy has become a fundamental element that allows for citizen inclusion, access to quality jobs, and a labor market capable of responding to the digital economy. There are no methodological instruments available in Chile to measure the workforce’s digital literacy and improve national policies on this matter. Thus, the objective of this research is to develop a survey to measure digital literacy in a sample of 200 Chilean workers. Dimensions considered in the instrument are sociodemographics, access to infrastructure, digital education, digital skills, and the ability to use e-government services. To achieve the research objective of developing a digital literacy model of indicators and a research instrument for this purpose, along with an exploratory analysis of data using factor analysis, we used an empirical, quantitative-qualitative, exploratory, non-probabilistic, and cross-sectional research design. The research instrument is a survey created to measure variables that make up the conceptual map prepared from the bibliographic review. Before applying the survey, a pilot test was implemented, resulting in several adjustments to the phrasing of some items. A validation test was also applied using six experts, including their observations on the final instrument. The survey contained 49 items that were further divided into three sets of questions: sociodemographic data; a Likert scale of four values ranked according to the level of agreement; iii) multiple choice questions complementing the dimensions. Data collection occurred between January and March 2022. For the factor analysis, we used the answers to 12 items with the Likert scale. KMO showed a value of 0.626, indicating a medium level of correlation, whereas Bartlett’s test yielded a significance value of less than 0.05 and a Cronbach’s Alpha of 0.618. Taking all factor selection criteria into account, we decided to include and analyze four factors that together explain 53.48% of the accumulated variance. We identified the following factors: i) access to infrastructure and opportunities to develop digital skills at the workplace or educational establishment (15.57%), ii) ability to solve everyday problems using digital tools (14.89%), iii) online tools used to stay connected with others (11.94%), and iv) residential Internet access and speed (11%). Quantitative results were discussed within six focus groups using heterogenic selection criteria related to the most relevant variables identified in the statistical analysis: upper-class school students; middle-class university students; Ph.D. professors; low-income working women, elderly individuals, and a group of rural workers. The digital divide and its social and economic correlations are evident in the results of this research. In Chile, the items that explain the acquisition of digital tools focus on access to infrastructure, which ultimately puts the first filter on the development of digital skills. Therefore, as expressed in the literature review, the advance of these skills is radically different when sociodemographic variables are considered. This increases socioeconomic distances and exclusion criteria, putting those who do not have these skills at a disadvantage and forcing them to seek the assistance of others.

Keywords: digital literacy, digital society, workforce digitalization, digital skills

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Authors: Alam Ali, Ashok Kumar Pathak

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Nowadays, copulas have attracted significant attention for modeling multivariate observations, and the foremost feature of copula functions is that they give us the liberty to study the univariate marginal distributions and their joint behavior separately. The copula parameter apprehends the intrinsic dependence among the marginal variables, and it can be estimated using parametric, semiparametric, or nonparametric techniques. This work aims to compare the coverage rates between an Elliptical and an Archimedean family of copulas via a fully parametric estimation technique.

Keywords: elliptical copula, archimedean copula, estimation, coverage rate

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Authors: Ankit Kumar Yadav, Nagendra R. Velaga

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Driving under the influence of alcohol impairs the driving performance and increases the crash risks worldwide. The present study investigated the effect of different Blood Alcohol Concentrations (BAC) on the accelerating and braking behaviour of drivers with the help of driving simulator experiments. Eighty-two licensed Indian drivers drove on the rural road environment designed in the driving simulator at BAC levels of 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.08% respectively. Driving performance was analysed with the help of vehicle control performance indicators such as mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force of the participants. Preliminary analysis reported an increase in mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force with increasing BAC levels. Generalized linear mixed models were developed to quantify the effect of different alcohol levels and explanatory variables such as driver’s age, gender and other driver characteristic variables on the driving performance indicators. Alcohol use was reported as a significant factor affecting the accelerating and braking performance of the drivers. The acceleration model results indicated that mean acceleration of the drivers increased by 0.013 m/s², 0.026 m/s² and 0.027 m/s² for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Results of the brake pedal force model reported that mean brake pedal force of the drivers increased by 1.09 N, 1.32 N and 1.44 N for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Age was a significant factor in both the models where one year increase in drivers’ age resulted in 0.2% reduction in mean acceleration and 19% reduction in mean brake pedal force of the drivers. It shows that driving experience could compensate for the negative effects of alcohol to some extent while driving. Female drivers were found to accelerate slower and brake harder as compared to the male drivers which confirmed that female drivers are more conscious about their safety while driving. It was observed that drivers who were regular exercisers had better control on their accelerator pedal as compared to the non-regular exercisers during drunken driving. The findings of the present study revealed that drivers tend to be more aggressive and impulsive under the influence of alcohol which deteriorates their driving performance. Drunk driving state can be differentiated from sober driving state by observing the accelerating and braking behaviour of the drivers. The conclusions may provide reference in making countermeasures against drinking and driving and contribute to traffic safety.

Keywords: alcohol, acceleration, braking behaviour, driving simulator

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Authors: Hadjer Chellia

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In the light of the recent global pandemic, different issues in educational research seem to invite careful considerations. Following this perspective, this study sets out to question the concept of classroom management in an EFL higher education context during Covid-19. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of their experiences, 6 EFL teachers from different Algerian universities took part in semi-structured interviews. The main emerging themes revealed that EFL teachers have different pedagogical practices in relation to classroom management during the global crisis than those of normal times. In relation to flexible education theory, the teachers’ experiences suggest flexible classroom management during Covid-19; flexibility in the teaching methods, approach and design, flexibility in time, flexibility in space and pace (speed), flexibility in assessment modes and flexibility in coping with students’ well-being. The flexibility awareness helps them to develop readiness towards the future, mainly in terms of maintaining an appropriate pedagogy to face the future crisis. In terms of theoretical concepts, working on classroom management under unusual circumstances in relation to flexible education helped come out with the concept of flexible classroom management (FCM) and virtual classroom management (VCM). It is then important for educators and researchers to rethink different pedagogical concepts and mind a careful application in the case of unusual times.

Keywords: Covid-19, EFL educators, flexible classroom management, flexible education, virtual classroom management

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Authors: Maria Cardova

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Aim and objectives: The purpose of this studywas to explore to what extent the deprivation statusinfluenced children’s physical activity, dietary behaviour, and health outcomes such as weight status. Background: The United Kingdom’s childhood obesity rates are currently ranked among the highest in Europe. North West England deals with highest rates of childhood obesity. Data from the UK Millennium Cohort Study suggested a deprivation gradient to childhood obesity in England, with obesity rates being the highest in the most deprived areas. Traditionally, it has been individual conception of health, but the contemporary stance is that health behaviours affecting obesity are influenced by a broad range of factors operating at multiple levels. According to socio-ecological model of health behaviour, differences in obesity rates and health outcomes are likely explained by differences in lifestyle behaviours including physical activity and diet behaviours. However, higher rates of obesity among deprived children are not due to physical inactivity, in fact, most socially disadvantaged children are the most physically active. Poor diet including high consumption of fast food and sugar-sweetened beverages and low consumption of fruit and vegetables was found to be the most prevalent among adolescents living in poverty. Methods: This study adopted quantitative approach. It consisted of combination of basic demographic data, anthropometry, and questionnaires. Children (N = 165, mean age = 10.04 years; 53.33% female; 46.66% male) completed survey packs during school day including KIDSCREEN, Youth Activity Profile, Beverage and Snack Questionnaire, and Child Body Image Scale questionnaires as well as had anthropometric measurements taken including Body mass index, waist circumference, weight, and height. Children’s deprivation status was based on the English Indices of Multiple Deprivation scores of the school they attended. Results: Children from more deprived areas had higher weight status, waist circumference. Deprivation status had also effect on some dimensions of the KIDSCREEN questionnaire, such as that those from more deprived areas felt less socially accepted and bullied by their peers, had worse feelings about themselves such as body image, and more difficulty with school and learning. Children from more deprived areas reported higher rates of physical activity and also differences in snack and fruit and vegetable intake than their more affluent peers. Conclusion: Results demonstrated that, children living in the most-deprived areas appear to be at greater risk of unfavourable health-related variables and behaviours and are exposed to home and neighbourhood environments that are less conducive to health-promoting behaviours compared to their peers from less deprived areas. These findings indicate that children living in highly deprived areas represent an important group for future interventions designed to promote health-behaviours that would impact on the quality of life of the child and other health variables such as weight status.

Keywords: children, dietary behaviour, health, obesity, physical Activity, weight Status

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Authors: Henry Kelly, Helena Shaw

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This paper will seek how innovative methods from Health Economics and, to a lesser extent, wellbeing analysis can be applied in the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of transport infrastructure and policy interventions. The context for this will focus on the framework articulated by the UK Treasury (finance department) and the English Department for Transport. Both have well-established methods for undertaking CBA, but there is increased policy interest, particularly at a regional level of exploring broader strategic goals beyond those traditionally associated with transport user benefits, productivity gains, and labour market access. Links to different CBA approaches internationally, such as New Zealand, France, and Wales will be referenced. By exploring a complementary method of accessing the impacts of policies through the quantification of health impacts is a fruitful line to explore. In a previous piece of work, 14 impact pathways were identified, mapping the relationship between transport and health. These are wide-ranging, from improved employment prospects, the stress of unreliable journey times, and air quality to isolation and loneliness. Importantly, we will consider these different measures of health from an intersectional point of view to ensure that the basis that remains in the health industry does not get translated across to this work. The objective is to explore how a CBA based on these pathways may, through quantifying forecast impacts in terms of Quality-Adjusted Life Years may, produce different findings than a standard approach. Of particular interest is how a health-based approach may have different distributional impacts on socio-economic groups and may favour distinct types of interventions. Consideration will be given to the degree this approach may double-count impacts or if it is possible to identify additional benefits to the established CBA approach. The investigation will explore a range of schemes, from a high-speed rail link, highway improvements, rural mobility hubs, and coach services to cycle lanes. The conclusions should aid the progression of methods concerning the assessment of publicly funded infrastructure projects.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, health, QALYs transport

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Authors: Linda Smail, Zineb Azouz

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Given a Bayesian network relative to a set I of discrete random variables, we are interested in computing the probability distribution P(S) where S is a subset of I. The general idea is to write the expression of P(S) in the form of a product of factors where each factor is easy to compute. More importantly, it will be very useful to give an interpretation of each of the factors in terms of conditional probabilities. This paper considers a semantic interpretation of the factors involved in computing marginal probabilities in Bayesian networks. Establishing such a semantic interpretations is indeed interesting and relevant in the case of large Bayesian networks.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, D-Separation, level two Bayesian networks, factorization of computation

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Authors: Wogu Ikedinachi Ayodele Power, Agbude Godwyns, Eniayekon Eugenia, Nchekwube Excellence-Oluye, Abasilim Ugochukwu David

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Contemporary ethicists and writers on leadership, in their quest to address the problem of leadership crisis in Nigeria, have identified the absence of practical prudence -which manifests in variables such as corruption, ethnicity and greed- as one of the major factors which breeds leadership crises. These variables are further fuelled by the lack of a consistent theory of leadership among scholars that could guide the pertinent actions of political leaders, hence the rising cases of leadership crises in the country. The theoretical framework that guides this study emanates from Aristotle’s notion of prudence as contained in the Nicomachean Ethics, which states that prudence is a central moral resource for political leaders. The method of conceptual analysis shall be used to clarify the concepts of virtue, prudence and leadership. The traditional method of critical analysis and the reconstructive method of ideas in philosophy are used to conceptually and contextually analyze all relevant texts and archival materials in the subject areas of this study. The study identifies a high degree of ideological bias and logical inconsistencies inherent in the theories of leadership proposed by the realist and the moralist schools of thought. The conflicting ideologies regarding what political leadership should be among scholars of leadership is identified as one of the major factors militating against ascertaining a practicable theory of leadership, which has the capacity to guide the pertinent actions of political leaders all over the world. This paper therefore identifies the absence of practical prudence, ‘wisdom’, as the major factor associated with leadership crises in Nigeria. We therefore argue that only prudent leaders will have the capacity to identify salient aspects of political situations which leaders have obligations to consider before making political decisions. Seven frameworks were prescribed from Aristotle’s Notion of prudence to strengthen this position, they include: Disciplined reason and openness to experience; Foresight and attention to the long term, among others. We submit that leadership devoid of crisis can be attained through the application of the virtue of prudence. Where this theory is adopted, it should eliminate further leadership crises in Nigeria.

Keywords: Aristotle, leadership crisis, political leadership, prudence

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Authors: Hoda Manafian, Stephen Holland

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Problem statement: Rural areas in Iran are one of the most popular tourism destinations. Abyaneh Village is one of them with a long history behind it (more than 1500 years) which is a national heritage site and also is nominated as a world heritage site in UNESCO tentative list from 2007. There is a considerable foundation of religious-cultural heritage and also agricultural history and activities. However, this heritage site suffers from mass tourism which is beyond its social and physical carrying capacity, since the annual number of tourists exceed 500,000. While there are four adjacent villages around Abyaneh which can benefit from advantages of tourism. Local managers also can at the same time prorate the tourists’ flux of Abyaneh on those other villages especially in high-season. The other villages have some cultural and natural tourism attractions as well. Goal: The main goal of this study is to identify a feasible development strategy according to the current strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of rural tourism in this area (Abyaneh Village and four adjacent villages). This development strategy can lead to sustainable management of these destinations. Method: To this end, we used SWOT analysis as a well-established tool for conducting a situational analysis to define a sustainable development strategy. The procedures included following steps: 1) Extracting variables of SWOT chart based on interviewing tourism experts (n=13), local elites (n=17) and personal observations of researcher. 2) Ranking the extracted variables from 1-5 by 13 tourism experts in Isfahan Cultural Heritage, Handcrafts and Tourism Organization (ICHTO). 3) Assigning weights to the ranked variables using Expert Choice Software and the method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP). 4) Defining the Total Weighted Score (TWS) for each part of SWOT chart. 5) Identifying the strategic position according to the TWS 6) Selecting the best development strategy based on the defined position using the Strategic Position and Action Evaluation (SPACE) matrix. 7) Assessing the Probability of Strategic Success (PSS) for the preferred strategy using relevant formulas. 8) Defining two feasible alternatives for sustainable development. Results and recommendations: Cultural heritage attractions were first-ranked variable in strength chart and also lack of sufficient amenities for one-day tourists (catering, restrooms, parking, and accommodation) was firs-ranked weakness. The strategic position was in ST (Strength-Threat) quadrant which is a maxi-mini position. According this position we would suggest ‘Competitive Strategy’ as a development strategy which means relying on strengths in order to neutralization threats. The result of Probability of Strategic Success assessment which was 0.6 shows that this strategy could be successful. The preferred approach for competitive strategy could be rebranding the market of tourism in this area. Rebranding the market can be achieved by two main alternatives which are based on the current strengths and threats: 1) Defining a ‘Heritage Corridor’ from first adjacent village to Abyaneh as a final destination. 2) Focus on ‘educational tourism’ versus mass tourism and also green tourism by developing agritourism in that corridor.

Keywords: Abyaneh village, rural tourism, SWOT analysis, sustainable strategies

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Authors: M. Nikafrooz, J. Darsareh

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Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, its impacts on education all over the world and the problems arising from the use of traditional methods in education, it was necessary to apply alternative solutions to achieve educational goals. In this regard, electronic content production through screen recording and giving educational services in virtual classes became popular among many teachers. But the production of screen recorded videos involves special technical and educational considerations so that educators could be able to produce valuable and well-made videos by taking those considerations into account. The purpose of this study was to extract and find the technical and educational considerations of producing screen recorded videos to provide a useful and comprehensive guideline for e-content producers to enable them to produce high-quality educational videos. This study is fundamental research and data collection has been done using the Delphi method. In this research, an attempt has been made to provide the necessary criteria and considerations regarding the design and production of screen recorded videos by studying the literatures, identifying and analyzing learners' and teachers' needs and expectations, reviewing the previously produced videos. The results of these studies led to the finding and extracting 129 indicators in the form of 6 criteria. Such considerations are expected to reduce production and editing time, increase the technical and educational quality, and finally facilitating and enhancing the processes of teaching and learning.

Keywords: e-content, screen recorded videos, screen recording software, technical and pedagogical considerations

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Authors: Al Mutawa A. Amir, Liaqat Ali, Faisal Ali

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After the World War II, the world economy was disrupted and changed due to oil and its prices. The research in this paper presents the basic statistical features and economic characteristics of the Gulf economy. The main features of the Gulf economies and its heavy dependence on oil exports, its dualism between modern and traditional sectors and its rapidly increasing affluences are particularly emphasized.  In this context, the research in this paper discussed the problems of growth versus development and has attempted to draw the implications for the future economic development of this area.

Keywords: oil prices, GCC, economic growth, gulf oil

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Authors: Jameelah Omolara Yaqub

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One of the main reasons for the existence of central bank is that it is believed that central banks have some influence on private sector decisions which will enable the Central Bank to achieve some of its objectives especially that of stable price and economic growth. By the assumption of the New Keynesian theory that prices are fully flexible in the short run, the central bank can temporarily influence real interest rate and, therefore, have an effect on real output in addition to nominal prices. There is, therefore, the need for the Central Bank to monitor, respond to, and influence private sector decisions appropriately. This thus shows that the Central Bank and the private sector will both affect and be affected by each other implying considerable interdependence between the sectors. The interdependence may be simultaneous or not depending on the level of information, readily available and how sensitive prices are to agents’ expectations about the future. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to determine whether the interdependence between asset prices and monetary policy are simultaneous or not and how important is this relationship. Studies on the effects of monetary policy have largely used VAR models to identify the interdependence but most have found small effects of interaction. Some earlier studies have ignored the possibility of simultaneous interdependence while those that have allowed for simultaneous interdependence used data from developed economies only. This study, therefore, extends the literature by using data from a developing economy where information might not be readily available to influence agents’ expectation. In this study, the direction of relationship among variables of interest will be tested by carrying out the Granger causality test. Thereafter, the interaction between asset prices and monetary policy in Nigeria will be tested. Asset prices will be represented by the NSE index as well as real estate prices while monetary policy will be represented by money supply and the MPR respectively. The VAR model will be used to analyse the relationship between the variables in order to take account of potential simultaneity of interdependence. The study will cover the period between 1980 and 2014 due to data availability. It is believed that the outcome of the research will guide monetary policymakers especially the CBN to effectively influence the private sector decisions and thereby achieve its objectives of price stability and economic growth.

Keywords: asset prices, granger causality, monetary policy rate, Nigeria

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Authors: Maryam Maleki, Esther Mead, Mohammad Arani, Nitin Agarwal

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This study is conducted to examine how opposing viewpoints related to COVID-19 were diffused on Twitter. To accomplish this, six datasets using two epidemiological models, SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) and SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics), were analyzed. The six datasets were chosen because they represent opposing viewpoints on the COVID-19 pandemic. Three of the datasets contain anti-subject hashtags, while the other three contain pro-subject hashtags. The time frame for all datasets is three years, starting from January 2020 to December 2022. The findings revealed that while both models were effective in evaluating the propagation trends of these polarizing viewpoints, the SEIZ model was more accurate with a relatively lower error rate (6.7%) compared to the SIR model (17.3%). Additionally, the relative error for both models was lower for anti-subject hashtags compared to pro-subject hashtags. By leveraging epidemiological models, insights into the propagation trends of polarizing viewpoints on Twitter were gained. This study paves the way for the development of methods to prevent the spread of ideas that lack scientific evidence while promoting the dissemination of scientifically backed ideas.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, epidemiological model, seiz model, sir model, covid-19, twitter, social network analysis, social contagion

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Authors: Bilge Aydın Er, Yuksel Ardalı

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In Ayvacık village, 80-90% of the population is engaged in agriculture. The pollution was adversely affecting the properties of agricultural origin of the lake. This study is to determine pollution caused by unwanted changes in the Suat Ugurlu Dam Lake has been launched to monitor. Yesilirmak basin is located in the proximal part of the Black Sea. Therefore it was exposed to impact many pollution. In this study, sediment samples from selected points along the lake was made on the analysis. This work was supported by the results of water analyzes. It is clear that urgent measures should be taken to the area of water management

Keywords: eutrophication, Black sea, lake, pollution

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Authors: Bethany Wood

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The world pandemic led to a change in the way social media was used by audiences, with young people spending more hours on the platform due to lockdown. Reports by Ofcom have demonstrated that the internet is the second most popular platform for accessing news after television in the UK with social media and the internet ranked as the most popular platform to access news for those aged between 16-24. These statistics are unsurprising considering that at the time of writing, 98 percent of Generation Z (Gen Z) owned a smartphone and the subsequent ease and accessibility of social media. Technology is constantly developing and with this, its importance is becoming more prevalent with each generation: the Baby Boomers (1946-1964) consider it something useful whereas millennials (1981-1997) believe it a necessity for day to day living. Gen Z, otherwise known as the digital native, have grown up with this technology at their fingertips and social media is a norm. It helps form their identity, their affiliations and opens gateways for them to engage with news in a new way. It is a common misconception that Gen Z do not consume news, they are simply doing so in a different way to their predecessors. Using a sample of 800 18-20 year olds whilst utilising Generational theory, Actor Network Theory and the Social Shaping of Technology, this research provides a critical analyse regarding how Gen Z’s news consumption and engagement habits are developing along with technology to sculpture the future format of news and its distribution. From that perspective, allied with the empirical approach, it is possible to provide research orientated advice for the industry and even help to redefine traditional concepts of journalism.

Keywords: journalism, generation z, digital, social media

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Authors: Michał Jaśkiewicz

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The relation between walkability, place adherence, social relations and quality of life was explored in a Polish context. A considerable number of studies have suggested that environmental factors may influence the quality of life through indirect pathways. The list of possible psychological mediators includes social relations and identity-related variables. Based on the results of Study 1, local identity is a significant mediator in the relationship between neighbourhood walkability and quality of life. It was assumed that pedestrian-oriented neighbourhoods enable residents to interact and that these spontaneous interactions can help to strengthen a sense of local identity, thus influencing the quality of life. We, therefore, conducted further studies, testing the relationship experimentally in studies 2a and 2b. Participants were exposed to (2a) photos of walkable/non-walkable neighbourhoods or (2b) descriptions of high/low-walkable neighbourhoods. They were then asked to assess the walkability of the neighbourhoods and to evaluate their potential social relations and quality of life in these places. In both studies, social relations with neighbours turned out to be a significant mediator between walkability and quality of life. In Study 3, we implemented the measure of overlapping individual and communal identity (fusion with the neighbourhood) and willingness to collective action as mediators. Living in a walkable neighbourhood was associated with identity fusion with that neighbourhood. Participants who felt more fused expressed greater willingness to engage in collective action with other neighbours. Finally, this willingness was positively related to the quality of life in the city. In Study 4, we used commuting time (an aspect of walkability related to the time that people spend travelling to work) as the independent variable. The results showed that a shorter average daily commuting time was linked to more frequent social interactions in the neighbourhood. Individuals who assessed their social interactions as more frequent expressed a stronger city identification, which was in turn related to quality of life. To sum up, our research replicated and extended previous findings on the association between walkability and well-being measures. We introduced potential mediators of this relationship: social interactions in the neighbourhood and identity-related variables.

Keywords: walkability, quality of life, social relations, analysis of mediation

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Authors: I Putu Indra Kusuma

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The rapid development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) tools has improved the implementation of flipped classrooms in English Language Teaching (ELT), especially in speaking course. Flipped classrooms have therefore evolved from the oldest version, which uses recorded videos to the newest one (3.0 version), which combines various materials and enables out-of-class interaction and learning engagement. However, how the latest version of flipped classrooms affects students’ speaking performance and influences students’ learning engagement remains unclear. This study therefore sought (1) to examine the effect of flipped classrooms 3.0 towards students’ speaking performance and (2) to explore the students’ learning engagement during the implementation of flipped classrooms in the speaking course. This study then employed explanatory sequential mixed-method design. This study conducted a quasi-experimental study by recruiting 164 twelfth grade students of a public senior high school in Indonesia as the sample. They were distributed into experimental (80 students) and control (84 students) groups. The experimental group was treated by implementing flipped classrooms with various use of ICT tools such as Schoology, Youtube, websites, and Flipgrid for eight weeks. Meanwhile, the control group implemented a conventional method. Furthermore, there were two variables examined in this study, such as the implementation of flipped classrooms 3.0 as the independent variable and students’ speaking performance as the dependent variable. The data of these two variables were then collected through administering a speaking test to both groups. The data from this experimental study were analyzed by using independent t-test analysis. Also, five students were invited to participate in semi-structured interviews to explore their learning engagement during the implementation of flipped classrooms. The findings revealed that there was a significant difference in students’ speaking performance between experimental where t (df = 162) = 5.810, p < 0.001, d = 0.91 in which experimental group performed better in speaking than the control group. Also, the results of interviews showed that the students had positive learning engagement during the implementation of flipped classrooms 3.0, especially on out-of-class interactions and face-to-face meetings. Some relevant implications to ELT, especially in speaking courses, are also drawn from the data findings. From the findings, it can be concluded that flipped classrooms 3.0 has a significant effect on students’ speaking performance and it promotes students’ learning engagement. Therefore, flipped classrooms 3.0 should be embraced as the newest version of flipped classrooms that promotes interaction outside the classrooms and learning engagement.

Keywords: Flipped Classrooms 3.0, learning engagement, teaching speaking with technology, technology-enhanced language learning

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Authors: Emma Pope, Demos Parapanos

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Rural tourism has become more obvious and prevalent, with tourists’ increasingly seeking authentic experiences. This movement accelerated post-Covid, putting destinations in danger of reaching levels of saturation called ‘overtourism’. Whereas the phenomenon of overtourism has been frequently discussed in the urban context by academics and practitioners over recent years, it has hardly been referred to in the context of rural tourism, where perhaps it is even more difficult to manage. Rural tourism was historically considered small-scale, marked by its traditional character and by having little impact on nature and rural society. The increasing number of rural areas experiencing overtourism, however, demonstrates the need for new approaches, especially as the impacts and enablers of overtourism are context specific. Cumbria, with approximately 47 million visitors each year, and 23,000 operational enterprises, is one of these rural areas experiencing overtourism in the UK. Using the county of Cumbria as an example, this paper aims to explore better planning and management in rural destinations by clustering the area into rural and ‘urban-rural’ tourism zones. To achieve the aim, this study uses secondary data from a variety of sources to identify variables relating to visitor economy development and demand. These data include census data relating to population and employment, tourism industry-specific data including tourism revenue, visitor activities, and accommodation stock, and big data sources such as Trip Advisor and All Trails. The combination of these data sources provides a breadth of tourism-related variables. The subsequent analysis of this data draws upon various validated models. For example, tourism and hospitality employment density, territorial tourism pressure, and accommodation density. In addition to these statistical calculations, other data are utilized to further understand the context of these zones, for example, tourist services, attractions, and activities. The data was imported into ARCGIS where the density of the different variables is visualized on maps. This study aims to provide an understanding of the geographical context of visitor economy development and tourist behavior in rural areas. The findings contribute to an understanding of the spatial dynamics of tourism within the region of Cumbria through the creation of thematized maps. Different zones of tourism industry clusters are identified, which include elements relating to attractions, enterprises, infrastructure, tourism employment and economic impact. These maps visualize hot and cold spots relating to a variety of tourism contexts. It is believed that the strategy used to provide a visual overview of tourism development and demand in Cumbria could provide a strategic tool for rural areas to better plan marketing opportunities and avoid overtourism. These findings can inform future sustainability policy and destination management strategies within the areas through an understanding of the processes behind the emergence of both hot and cold spots. It may mean that attract and disperse needs to be reviewed in terms of a strategic option. In other words, to use sector or zonal policies for the individual hot or cold areas with transitional zones dependent upon local economic, social and environmental factors.

Keywords: overtourism, rural tourism, sustainable tourism, tourism planning, tourism zones

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Authors: Malik Abdul Jabbar Zen, Wiwik Misaco Yuniarti, Azisya Amalia Karimasari, Novita Priandini

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Zoonos is as an infectiontransmitted froma nimals to human sand vice versa currently having increased in the last 20 years. The experts/scientists predict that zoonosis will be a threat to the community in the future since it leads on 70% emerging infectious diseases (EID) and the high mortality of 50%-90%. The zoonosis’ spread from animal to human is caused by contaminated food known as foodborne disease. One World One Health, as the conceptual prevention toward zoonosis, requires the crossed disciplines cooperation to accelerate and streamlinethe handling ofanimal-based disease. E-Vet Smart Rapid System is an integrated innovation in the veterinary expertise application is able to facilitate the prevention, treatment, and educationagainst pandemic diseases and zoonosis. This system is constructed by Decision Support System (DSS) method provides a database of knowledge that is expected to facilitate the identification of disease rapidly, precisely, and accurately as well as to identify the deduction. The testingis conducted through a black box test case and questionnaire (N=30) by validity and reliability approach. Based on the black box test case reveals that E-Vet Rapid System is able to deliver the results in accordance with system design, and questionnaire shows that this system is valid (r > 0.361) and has a reliability (α > 0.3610).

Keywords: diagnosis, disease, expert systems, livestock, zoonosis

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Authors: Cory B. Portner, Julie A. Grauert, Lisa M. Stromme, Shelby D. Anderson, Franji H. Mayes

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Introduction: WASHINGTON state in the Pacific Northwest of the United States is internationally known for its technology industry, fisheries, agriculture, and vistas. On January 21, 2020, Washington state also became known as the first state with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the United States, thrusting the state into the international spotlight as the world came to grips with the global threat of this disease presented. Tourism is Washington state’s fourth-largest industry. Tourism to the state generates over 1.8 billion dollars (USD) in local and state tax revenue and employs over 180,000 people. Communicating with residents, stakeholders, and visitors on the status of disease activity, prevention measures, and response updates was vital to stopping the pandemic and increasing compliance and awareness. Significance: In order to communicate vital public health updates, guidance implementation, and safety measures to the public, the Washington State Department of Health established routine live virtual media briefings to reach audiences via social media, internet television, and broadcast television. Through close partnership with regional broadcast news stations and the state public affairs news network, the Washington State Department of Health hosted 95 media briefings from January 2020 through September 2022 and continues to regularly host live virtual media briefings to accommodate the needs of the public and media. Methods: Our methods quickly evolved from hosting briefings in the cement closet of a military base to being able to produce and stream the briefings live from any home-office location. The content was tailored to the hot topic of the day and to the reporter's questions and needs. Virtual media briefings hosted through inexpensive or free platforms online are extremely cost-effective: the only mandatory components are WiFi, a laptop, and a monitor. There is no longer a need for a fancy studio or expensive production software to achieve the goal of communicating credible, reliable information promptly. With minimal investment and a small learning curve, facilitators and panelists are able to host highly produced and engaging media availabilities from their living rooms. Results: The briefings quickly developed a reputation as the best source for local and national journalists to get the latest and most factually accurate information about the pandemic. In the height of the COVID-19 response, 135 unique media outlets logged on to participate in the briefing. The briefings typically featured 4-5 panelists, with as many as 9 experts in attendance to provide information and respond to media questions. Preparation was always a priority: Public Affairs staff for the Washington State Department of Health produced over 170 presenter remarks, including guidance on talking points for 63 expert guest panelists. Implication For Practice: Information is today’s most valuable currency. The ability to disseminate correct information urgently and on a wide scale is the most effective tool in crisis communication. Due to our role as the first state with a confirmed COVID-19 case, we were forced to develop the most accurate and effective way to get life-saving information to the public. The cost-effective, web-based methods we developed can be applied in any crisis to educate and protect communities under threat, ultimately saving lives from a laptop.

Keywords: crisis communications, public relations, media management, news media

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Authors: Elena Perepelova

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As the world approaches the 4th industrial revolution, income inequality has become one of the major societal concerns. Displacement of workers by technology becomes a reality, and in return, new skills and competencies are required. More important than ever, education needs to help individuals understand the wider world around them and make global connections. The author argues for the necessity to incorporate business, economics and finance studies as a part of primary education and offer access to business education to the general population with the primary objective to understand how the world functions. The paper offers a fresh look at existing business theory through an innovative program called 'Usefulnomics'. Realizing that the subject of Economics, Finance and Business are perceived as overwhelming for a large part of the population, the author has taken a holistic approach and created a program that simplifies the definitions of the existing concepts and shifts from the traditional breakdown into subjects and specialties to a teaching method that is based exclusively on real-life example case studies and group debates, in order to better grasp the concepts and put them into context. The paper findings are the result of a two-year project and experimental work with students from UK, USA, Malaysia, Russia, and Spain. The author conducted extensive research through on-line and in-person classes and workshops as well as in-depth interviews of primary and secondary grade students to assess their understanding of what is a business, how businesses operate and the role businesses play in their communities. The findings clearly indicate that students of all ages often understood business concepts and processes only in an intuitive way, which resulted in misconceptions and gaps in knowledge. While knowledge gaps were easier to identify and correct in primary school students, as students’ age increased, the learning process became distorted by career choices, political views, and the students’ actual (or perceived) economic status. While secondary school students recognized more concepts, their real understanding was often on par with upper primary school age students. The research has also shown that lack of correct vocabulary created a strong barrier to communication and real-life application or further learning. Based on these findings, each key business concept was practiced and put into context with small groups of students in order to design the content and format which would be well accepted and understood by the target group. As a result, the final learning program package was based on case studies from daily modern life and used a wide range of examples: from popular brands and well-known companies to basic commodities. In the final stage, the content and format were put into practice in larger classrooms. The author would like to share the key findings from the research, the resulting learning program as well as present new ideas on how the program could be further enriched and adapted so schools and organizations can deliver it.

Keywords: business, finance, economics, lifelong learning, XXI century skills

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