Search results for: gel strength prediction
3784 Count Data Regression Modeling: An Application to Spontaneous Abortion in India
Authors: Prashant Verma, Prafulla K. Swain, K. K. Singh, Mukti Khetan
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Objective: In India, around 20,000 women die every year due to abortion-related complications. In the modelling of count variables, there is sometimes a preponderance of zero counts. This article concerns the estimation of various count regression models to predict the average number of spontaneous abortion among women in the Punjab state of India. It also assesses the factors associated with the number of spontaneous abortions. Materials and methods: The study included 27,173 married women of Punjab obtained from the DLHS-4 survey (2012-13). Poisson regression (PR), Negative binomial (NB) regression, zero hurdle negative binomial (ZHNB), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models were employed to predict the average number of spontaneous abortions and to identify the determinants affecting the number of spontaneous abortions. Results: Statistical comparisons among four estimation methods revealed that the ZINB model provides the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions. Antenatal care (ANC) place, place of residence, total children born to a woman, woman's education and economic status were found to be the most significant factors affecting the occurrence of spontaneous abortion. Conclusions: The study offers a practical demonstration of techniques designed to handle count variables. Statistical comparisons among four estimation models revealed that the ZINB model provided the best prediction for the number of spontaneous abortions and is recommended to be used to predict the number of spontaneous abortions. The study suggests that women receive institutional Antenatal care to attain limited parity. It also advocates promoting higher education among women in Punjab, India.Keywords: count data, spontaneous abortion, Poisson model, negative binomial model, zero hurdle negative binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 1553783 Fabrication and Characterization of Dissolvable Microneedle Patches Using Different Compositions and Ratios of Hyaluronic Acid and Zinc Oxide Nanoparticles
Authors: Dada Kolawole Segun
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Transdermal drug delivery has gained popularity as a non-invasive method for controlled drug release compared to traditional delivery routes. Dissolvable transdermal patches have emerged as a promising platform for delivering a variety of drugs due to their ease of use. The objective of this research was to create and characterize dissolvable transdermal patches using various compositions and ratios of hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticles. A micromolding technique was utilized to fabricate the patches, which were subsequently characterized using scanning electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy, and tensile strength testing. In vitro drug release studies were conducted to evaluate the drug release kinetics of the patches. The study found that the mechanical strength and dissolution properties of the patches were influenced by the hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticle ratios used in the fabrication process. Moreover, the patches demonstrated controlled delivery of model drugs through the skin, highlighting their potential for transdermal drug delivery applications. The results suggest that dissolvable transdermal patches can be tailored to meet specific requirements for drug delivery applications using different compositions and ratios of hyaluronic acid and zinc oxide nanoparticles. This development has the potential to improve treatment outcomes and patient compliance in various therapeutic areas.Keywords: transdermal drug delivery, characterization, skin permeation, biodegradable materials
Procedia PDF Downloads 903782 Comparison of Feedforward Back Propagation and Self-Organizing Map for Prediction of Crop Water Stress Index of Rice
Authors: Aschalew Cherie Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha
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Due to the increase in water scarcity, the crop water stress index (CWSI) is receiving significant attention these days, especially in arid and semiarid regions, for quantifying water stress and effective irrigation scheduling. Nowadays, machine learning techniques such as neural networks are being widely used to determine CWSI. In the present study, the performance of two artificial neural networks, namely, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) and Feed Forward-Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks (FF-BP-ANN), are compared while determining the CWSI of rice crop. Irrigation field experiments with varying degrees of irrigation were conducted at the irrigation field laboratory of the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, during the growing season of the rice crop. The CWSI of rice was computed empirically by measuring key meteorological variables (relative humidity, air temperature, wind speed, and canopy temperature) and crop parameters (crop height and root depth). The empirically computed CWSI was compared with SOM and FF-BP-ANN predicted CWSI. The upper and lower CWSI baselines are computed using multiple regression analysis. The regression analysis showed that the lower CWSI baseline for rice is a function of crop height (h), air vapor pressure deficit (AVPD), and wind speed (u), whereas the upper CWSI baseline is a function of crop height (h) and wind speed (u). The performance of SOM and FF-BP-ANN were compared by computing Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), index of agreement (d), root mean squared error (RMSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). It is found that FF-BP-ANN performs better than SOM while predicting the CWSI of rice crops.Keywords: artificial neural networks; crop water stress index; canopy temperature, prediction capability
Procedia PDF Downloads 1173781 Effect of Wettability Alteration on Production Performance in Unconventional Tight Oil Reservoirs
Authors: Rashid S. Mohammad, Shicheng Zhang, Xinzhe Zhao
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In tight oil reservoirs, wettability alteration has generally been considered as an effective way to remove fracturing fluid retention on the surface of the fracture and consequently improved oil production. However, there is a lack of a reliable productivity prediction model to show the relationship between the wettability and oil production in tight oil well. In this paper, a new oil productivity prediction model of immiscible oil-water flow and miscible CO₂-oil flow accounting for wettability is developed. This mathematical model is established by considering two different length scales: nonporous network and propped fractures. CO₂ flow diffuses in the nonporous network and high velocity non-Darcy flow in propped fractures are considered by taking into account the effect of wettability alteration on capillary pressure and relative permeability. A laboratory experiment is also conducted here to validate this model. Laboratory experiments have been designed to compare the water saturation profiles for different contact angle, revealing the fluid retention in rock pores that affects capillary force and relative permeability. Four kinds of brines with different concentrations are selected here to create different contact angles. In water-wet porous media, as the system becomes more oil-wet, water saturation decreases. As a result, oil relative permeability increases. On the other hand, capillary pressure which is the resistance for the oil flow increases as well. The oil production change due to wettability alteration is the result of the comprehensive changes of oil relative permeability and capillary pressure. The results indicate that wettability is a key factor for fracturing fluid retention removal and oil enhancement in tight reservoirs. By incorporating laboratory test into a mathematical model, this work shows the relationship between wettability and oil production is not a simple linear pattern but a parabolic one. Additionally, it can be used for a better understanding of optimization design of fracturing fluids.Keywords: wettability, relative permeability, fluid retention, oil production, unconventional and tight reservoirs
Procedia PDF Downloads 2363780 Somatic Embryogenesis of Lachenalia viridiflora, a Critically Endangered Ornamental Geophyte with High Floricultural Potential
Authors: Vijay Kumar, Mack Moyo, Johannes Van Staden
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Lachenalia viridiflora is a critically endangered bulbous plant with high potential on the international floriculture market. In the present study, an efficient protocol for in vitro plantlet regeneration through somatic embryogenesis was developed. Embryogenic callus was established on Murashige and Skoog (MS) basal medium supplemented with various concentrations and combinations of picloram and thidiazuron (TDZ). A high number of SEs (28.5 ± 1.49) with at different developmental stages of somatic embryos (SEs: globular embryos, torpedo and cotyledon embryo with bipolar characteristics) was obtained on Murashige and Skoog (MS) (Murashige and Skoog 1962) medium with 2.5 μM picloram, and 1.0 μM TDZ. Histological and scanning electron microscopic (SEM) analysis confirmed the presence of somatic embryos. Mature somatic embryos germinated and developed into plantlets after 6 weeks on half/full strength MS medium. High plant regeneration frequency (91.11 %) was achieved on full-strength MS medium supplemented with 5 μM phloroglucinol (PG). Well-developed healthy plantlets were successfully acclimatized in the greenhouse with a survival rate of 80%. The result of this study is beneficial in the mass propagation of high-quality Lachenalia viridiflora clonal plants for the commercial horticultural market and also provides a platform for future genetic transformation studies on the plant.Keywords: horticultural plant, Lachenalia viridiflora, phloroglucinol, somatic embryogenesis, thidiazuron
Procedia PDF Downloads 6303779 Material and Parameter Analysis of the PolyJet Process for Mold Making Using Design of Experiments
Authors: A. Kampker, K. Kreisköther, C. Reinders
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Since additive manufacturing technologies constantly advance, the use of this technology in mold making seems reasonable. Many manufacturers of additive manufacturing machines, however, do not offer any suggestions on how to parameterize the machine to achieve optimal results for mold making. The purpose of this research is to determine the interdependencies of different materials and parameters within the PolyJet process by using design of experiments (DoE), to additively manufacture molds, e.g. for thermoforming and injection molding applications. Therefore, the general requirements of thermoforming molds, such as heat resistance, surface quality and hardness, have been identified. Then, different materials and parameters of the PolyJet process, such as the orientation of the printed part, the layer thickness, the printing mode (matte or glossy), the distance between printed parts and the scaling of parts, have been examined. The multifactorial analysis covers the following properties of the printed samples: Tensile strength, tensile modulus, bending strength, elongation at break, surface quality, heat deflection temperature and surface hardness. The key objective of this research is that by joining the results from the DoE with the requirements of the mold making, optimal and tailored molds can be additively manufactured with the PolyJet process. These additively manufactured molds can then be used in prototyping processes, in process testing and in small to medium batch production.Keywords: additive manufacturing, design of experiments, mold making, PolyJet, 3D-Printing
Procedia PDF Downloads 2553778 Numerical Evaluation of Lateral Bearing Capacity of Piles in Cement-Treated Soils
Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayed, Saeideh Mohammadi
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Soft soil is used in many of civil engineering projects like coastal, marine and road projects. Because of low shear strength and stiffness of soft soils, large settlement and low bearing capacity will occur under superstructure loads. This will make the civil engineering activities more difficult and costlier. In the case of soft soils, improvement is a suitable method to increase the shear strength and stiffness for engineering purposes. In recent years, the artificial cementation of soil by cement and lime has been extensively used for soft soil improvement. Cement stabilization is a well-established technique for improving soft soils. Artificial cementation increases the shear strength and hardness of the natural soils. On the other hand, in soft soils, the use of piles to transfer loads to the depths of ground is usual. By using cement treated soil around the piles, high bearing capacity and low settlement in piles can be achieved. In the present study, lateral bearing capacity of short piles in cemented soils is investigated by numerical approach. For this purpose, three dimensional (3D) finite difference software, FLAC 3D is used. Cement treated soil has a strain hardening-softening behavior, because of breaking of bonds between cement agent and soil particle. To simulate such behavior, strain hardening-softening soil constitutive model is used for cement treated soft soil. Additionally, conventional elastic-plastic Mohr Coulomb constitutive model and linear elastic model are used for stress-strain behavior of natural soils and pile. To determine the parameters of constitutive models and also for verification of numerical model, the results of available triaxial laboratory tests on and insitu loading of piles in cement treated soft soil are used. Different parameters are considered in parametric study to determine the effective parameters on the bearing of the piles on cemented treated soils. In the present paper, the effect of various length and height of the artificial cemented area, different diameter and length of the pile and the properties of the materials are studied. Also, the effect of choosing a constitutive model for cemented treated soils in the bearing capacity of the pile is investigated.Keywords: bearing capacity, cement-treated soils, FLAC 3D, pile
Procedia PDF Downloads 1263777 A Neural Network for the Prediction of Contraction after Burn Injuries
Authors: Ginger Egberts, Marianne Schaaphok, Fred Vermolen, Paul van Zuijlen
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A few years ago, a promising morphoelastic model was developed for the simulation of contraction formation after burn injuries. Contraction can lead to a serious reduction in physical mobility, like a reduction in the range-of-motion of joints. If this is the case in a healing burn wound, then this is referred to as a contracture that needs medical intervention. The morphoelastic model consists of a set of partial differential equations describing both a chemical part and a mechanical part in dermal wound healing. These equations are solved with the numerical finite element method (FEM). In this method, many calculations are required on each of the chosen elements. In general, the more elements, the more accurate the solution. However, the number of elements increases rapidly if simulations are performed in 2D and 3D. In that case, it not only takes longer before a prediction is available, the computation also becomes more expensive. It is therefore important to investigate alternative possibilities to generate the same results, based on the input parameters only. In this study, a surrogate neural network has been designed to mimic the results of the one-dimensional morphoelastic model. The neural network generates predictions quickly, is easy to implement, and there is freedom in the choice of input and output. Because a neural network requires extensive training and a data set, it is ideal that the one-dimensional FEM code generates output quickly. These feed-forward-type neural network results are very promising. Not only can the network give faster predictions, but it also has a performance of over 99%. It reports on the relative surface area of the wound/scar, the total strain energy density, and the evolutions of the densities of the chemicals and mechanics. It is, therefore, interesting to investigate the applicability of a neural network for the two- and three-dimensional morphoelastic model for contraction after burn injuries.Keywords: biomechanics, burns, feasibility, feed-forward NN, morphoelasticity, neural network, relative surface area wound
Procedia PDF Downloads 553776 Investigation of Effect of Mixture Ratio and Compaction Pressure of Reinforced with Miscanthus Fibre Brake Pad Samples
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Brake pads are important parts of the braking system and they are made of different materials. Use of asbestos fibre can cause health risks. The goal of this study is to determine the effect of ecological brake pad samples which are produced under different compaction pressure values and mixture ratios by using miscanthus as reinforcement component on the density, hardness, wear rate and compression strength properties, and friction coefficients changes of ecological brake pad samples. Miscanthus powder, cashew powder, alumina powder, phenolic resin powder, and calcite powder mixtures were used to produce ecological brake pad samples. The physical properties of the brake pad samples produced under different mixture ratios and compaction pressures values were determined to assign their effects on them by using Taguchi experimental design. Mixture ratios and compaction pressures values were chosen as the factors with three-levels. Experiments are conducted to L₉(3⁴) Taguchi orthogonal array design. The results showed that hardness value is very much affected both compaction pressure values and mixture ratios than the other physical properties. When reinforcing component ratio within the mixture and compaction pressure value is increased, hardness and compression strength values of the all samples are also increased. All test results taking into account, the ideal compaction value for used components and mixture ratios were determined as 200 MPa.Keywords: brake pad, eco-friendly materials, hardness, Miscanthus, Taguchi method
Procedia PDF Downloads 3273775 Prediction of Endotracheal Tube Size in Children by Predicting Subglottic Diameter Using Ultrasonographic Measurement versus Traditional Formulas
Authors: Parul Jindal, Shubhi Singh, Priya Ramakrishnan, Shailender Raghuvanshi
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Background: Knowledge of the influence of the age of the child on laryngeal dimensions is essential for all practitioners who are dealing with paediatric airway. Choosing the correct endotracheal tube (ETT) size is a crucial step in pediatric patients because a large-sized tube may cause complications like post-extubation stridor and subglottic stenosis. On the other hand with a smaller tube, there will be increased gas flow resistance, aspiration risk, poor ventilation, inaccurate monitoring of end-tidal gases and reintubation may also be required with a different size of the tracheal tube. Recent advancement in ultrasonography (USG) techniques should now allow for accurate and descriptive evaluation of pediatric airway. Aims and objectives: This study was planned to determine the accuracy of Ultrasonography (USG) to assess the appropriate ETT size and compare it with physical indices based formulae. Methods: After obtaining approval from Institute’s Ethical and Research committee, and parental written and informed consent, the study was conducted on 100 subjects of either sex between 12-60 months of age, undergoing various elective surgeries under general anesthesia requiring endotracheal intubation. The same experienced radiologist performed ultrasonography. The transverse diameter was measured at the level of cricoids cartilage by USG. After USG, general anesthesia was administered using standard techniques followed by the institute. An experienced anesthesiologist performed the endotracheal intubations with uncuffed endotracheal tube (Portex Tracheal Tube Smiths Medical India Pvt. Ltd.) with Murphy’s eye. He was unaware of the finding of the ultrasonography. The tracheal tube was considered best fit if air leak was satisfactory at 15-20 cm H₂O of airway pressure. The obtained values were compared with the values of endotracheal tube size calculated by ultrasonography, various age, height, weight-based formulas and diameter of right and left little finger. The correlation of the size of the endotracheal tube by different modalities was done and Pearson's correlation coefficient was obtained. The comparison of the mean size of the endotracheal tube by ultrasonography and by traditional formula was done by the Friedman’s test and Wilcoxon sign-rank test. Results: The predicted tube size was equal to best fit and best determined by ultrasonography (100%) followed by comparison to left little finger (98%) and right little finger (97%) and age-based formula (95%) followed by multivariate formula (83%) and body length (81%) formula. According to Pearson`s correlation, there was a moderate correlation of best fit endotracheal tube with endotracheal tube size by age-based formula (r=0.743), body length based formula (r=0.683), right little finger based formula (r=0.587), left little finger based formula (r=0.587) and multivariate formula (r=0.741). There was a strong correlation with ultrasonography (r=0.943). Ultrasonography was the most sensitive (100%) method of prediction followed by comparison to left (98%) and right (97%) little finger and age-based formula (95%), the multivariate formula had an even lesser sensitivity (83%) whereas body length based formula was least sensitive with a sensitivity of 78%. Conclusion: USG is a reliable method of estimation of subglottic diameter and for prediction of ETT size in children.Keywords: endotracheal intubation, pediatric airway, subglottic diameter, traditional formulas, ultrasonography
Procedia PDF Downloads 2403774 A Hybrid Model of Structural Equation Modelling-Artificial Neural Networks: Prediction of Influential Factors on Eating Behaviors
Authors: Maryam Kheirollahpour, Mahmoud Danaee, Amir Faisal Merican, Asma Ahmad Shariff
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Background: The presence of nonlinearity among the risk factors of eating behavior causes a bias in the prediction models. The accuracy of estimation of eating behaviors risk factors in the primary prevention of obesity has been established. Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a hybrid model of structural equation modeling (SEM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict eating behaviors. Methods: The Partial Least Square-SEM (PLS-SEM) and a hybrid model (SEM-Artificial Neural Networks (SEM-ANN)) were applied to evaluate the factors affecting eating behavior patterns among university students. 340 university students participated in this study. The PLS-SEM analysis was used to check the effect of emotional eating scale (EES), body shape concern (BSC), and body appreciation scale (BAS) on different categories of eating behavior patterns (EBP). Then, the hybrid model was conducted using multilayer perceptron (MLP) with feedforward network topology. Moreover, Levenberg-Marquardt, which is a supervised learning model, was applied as a learning method for MLP training. The Tangent/sigmoid function was used for the input layer while the linear function applied for the output layer. The coefficient of determination (R²) and mean square error (MSE) was calculated. Results: It was proved that the hybrid model was superior to PLS-SEM methods. Using hybrid model, the optimal network happened at MPLP 3-17-8, while the R² of the model was increased by 27%, while, the MSE was decreased by 9.6%. Moreover, it was found that which one of these factors have significantly affected on healthy and unhealthy eating behavior patterns. The p-value was reported to be less than 0.01 for most of the paths. Conclusion/Importance: Thus, a hybrid approach could be suggested as a significant methodological contribution from a statistical standpoint, and it can be implemented as software to be able to predict models with the highest accuracy.Keywords: hybrid model, structural equation modeling, artificial neural networks, eating behavior patterns
Procedia PDF Downloads 1563773 An Overview of Bioinformatics Methods to Detect Novel Riboswitches Highlighting the Importance of Structure Consideration
Authors: Danny Barash
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Riboswitches are RNA genetic control elements that were originally discovered in bacteria and provide a unique mechanism of gene regulation. They work without the participation of proteins and are believed to represent ancient regulatory systems in the evolutionary timescale. One of the biggest challenges in riboswitch research is that many are found in prokaryotes but only a small percentage of known riboswitches have been found in certain eukaryotic organisms. The few examples of eukaryotic riboswitches were identified using sequence-based bioinformatics search methods that include some slight structural considerations. These pattern-matching methods were the first ones to be applied for the purpose of riboswitch detection and they can also be programmed very efficiently using a data structure called affix arrays, making them suitable for genome-wide searches of riboswitch patterns. However, they are limited by their ability to detect harder to find riboswitches that deviate from the known patterns. Several methods have been developed since then to tackle this problem. The most commonly used by practitioners is Infernal that relies on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Covariance Models (CMs). Profile Hidden Markov Models were also carried out in the pHMM Riboswitch Scanner web application, independently from Infernal. Other computational approaches that have been developed include RMDetect by the use of 3D structural modules and RNAbor that utilizes Boltzmann probability of structural neighbors. We have tried to incorporate more sophisticated secondary structure considerations based on RNA folding prediction using several strategies. The first idea was to utilize window-based methods in conjunction with folding predictions by energy minimization. The moving window approach is heavily geared towards secondary structure consideration relative to sequence that is treated as a constraint. However, the method cannot be used genome-wide due to its high cost because each folding prediction by energy minimization in the moving window is computationally expensive, enabling to scan only at the vicinity of genes of interest. The second idea was to remedy the inefficiency of the previous approach by constructing a pipeline that consists of inverse RNA folding considering RNA secondary structure, followed by a BLAST search that is sequence-based and highly efficient. This approach, which relies on inverse RNA folding in general and our own in-house fragment-based inverse RNA folding program called RNAfbinv in particular, shows capability to find attractive candidates that are missed by Infernal and other standard methods being used for riboswitch detection. We demonstrate attractive candidates found by both the moving-window approach and the inverse RNA folding approach performed together with BLAST. We conclude that structure-based methods like the two strategies outlined above hold considerable promise in detecting riboswitches and other conserved RNAs of functional importance in a variety of organisms.Keywords: riboswitches, RNA folding prediction, RNA structure, structure-based methods
Procedia PDF Downloads 2343772 Localization of Buried People Using Received Signal Strength Indication Measurement of Wireless Sensor
Authors: Feng Tao, Han Ye, Shaoyi Liao
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City constructions collapse after earthquake and people will be buried under ruins. Search and rescue should be conducted as soon as possible to save them. Therefore, according to the complicated environment, irregular aftershocks and rescue allow of no delay, a kind of target localization method based on RSSI (Received Signal Strength Indication) is proposed in this article. The target localization technology based on RSSI with the features of low cost and low complexity has been widely applied to nodes localization in WSN (Wireless Sensor Networks). Based on the theory of RSSI transmission and the environment impact to RSSI, this article conducts the experiments in five scenes, and multiple filtering algorithms are applied to original RSSI value in order to establish the signal propagation model with minimum test error respectively. Target location can be calculated from the distance, which can be estimated from signal propagation model, through improved centroid algorithm. Result shows that the localization technology based on RSSI is suitable for large-scale nodes localization. Among filtering algorithms, mixed filtering algorithm (average of average, median and Gaussian filtering) performs better than any other single filtering algorithm, and by using the signal propagation model, the minimum error of distance between known nodes and target node in the five scene is about 3.06m.Keywords: signal propagation model, centroid algorithm, localization, mixed filtering, RSSI
Procedia PDF Downloads 3003771 Co-Articulation between Consonant and Vowel in Cantonese Syllables
Authors: Wai-Sum Lee
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This study investigates C-V and V-C co-articulation in Cantonese monosyllables of the CV, VC or CVC structure, with C = one of the three stop consonants [p, t, k] and V = one of the three corner vowels [i, a, u]. Five repetitions of each test syllable on a randomized list were elicited from Cantonese young adult speakers in their early-20s. A research tool, EMA AG500, was used to record the synchronized audio signals and articulatory data at three different locations of the tongue – tongue tip, tongue middle, and tongue back – and the positions of the upper and lower lips during the test syllables. The main findings based on the articulatory data collected from two male Cantonese speakers are as follows: (i) For the syllable-initial [p-], strong co-articulation is observed when [p-] preceding the high vowel [i] or [u], but not the low vowel [a]. As for the syllable-final [-p], it is strongly co-articulated with the preceding vowel, even when the vowel is [a]. (ii) The co-articulation between the initial [t-] and the following vowel of any type is weak. In the syllable-final position, the degree of co-articulatory resistance of [-t] is also large when following the vowel [u], but [-t] is largely co-articulated with the preceding vowel when the vowel is [i] or [a]. (iii) The strength of co-articulation differs when the initial [k-] precedes the different types of vowel. A stronger co-articulation between [k-] and [i] than between [k-] and [u], and the strength of co-articulation is much reduced between [k-] and [a]. However, in the syllable-final position, there is strong co-articulation between [-k] and the preceding vowel [a]. (iv) Among the three types of stop consonants in the syllable-initial position, the decreasing degree of co-articulatory resistance (CR) is [t-] > [k-] > [p-], and the degree of CR is reduced during all three types of stop in the syllable-final position. In general, the data on co-articulation between consonant and vowel in the Cantonese monosyllables are similar to those in other languages reported in previous studies.Keywords: Cantonese, co-articulation, consonant, vowel
Procedia PDF Downloads 2473770 Nonlinear Finite Element Analysis of Concrete Filled Steel I-Girder Bridge
Authors: Waheed Ahmad Safi, Shunichi Nakamura
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Concrete filled steel I-girder (CFIG) bridge was proposed and the bending and shear strength was confirmed by experiments. The area surrounded by the upper and lower flanges and the web is filled with concrete in CFIG, which is used to the intermediate support of a continuous girder. Three-dimensional finite element models were established to simulate the bending and shear behaviors of CFIG and to clarify the load transfer mechanism. Steel plates and filled concrete were modeled as a three-dimensional 8-node solid element and steel reinforcement bars as a three-dimensional 2-node truss element. The elements were mostly divided into the 50 x 50 mm mesh size. The non-linear stress-strain relation is assumed for concrete in compression including the softening effect after the peak, and the stress increases linearly for concrete in tension until concrete cracking but then decreases due to tension stiffening effect. The stress-strain relation for steel plates was tri-linear and that for reinforcements was bi-linear. The concrete and the steel plates were rigidly connected. The developed FEM model was applied to simulate and analysis the bending behaviors of the CFIG specimens. The vertical displacements and the strains of steel plates and the filled concrete obtained by FEM agreed very well with the test results until the yield load. The specimens collapsed when the upper flange buckled or the concrete spalled off. These phenomena cannot be properly analyzed by FEM, which produces a small discrepancy at the ultimate states. The FEM model was also applied to simulate and analysis the shear tests of the CFIG specimens. The vertical displacements and strains of steel and concrete calculated by FEM model agreed well with the test results. A truss action was confirmed by the FEM and the experiment, clarifying that shear forces were mainly resisted by the tension strut of the steel plate and the compression strut of the filled concrete acting in the diagonal direction. A trail design with the CFIG was carried out for a four-span continuous highway bridge and the design method was established. Construction cost was estimated about 12% lower than that of a conventional steel I-section girder.Keywords: concrete filled steel I-girder, bending strength, FEM, limit states design, steel I-girder, shear strength
Procedia PDF Downloads 2203769 The Optimization of an Industrial Recycling Line: Improving the Durability of Recycled Polyethyene Blends
Authors: Alae Lamtai, Said Elkoun, Hniya Kharmoudi, Mathieu Robert, Carl Diez
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This study applies Taguchi's design of experiment methodology and grey relational analysis (GRA) for multi objective optimization of an industrial recycling line. This last is composed mainly of a mono and twin-screw extruder and a filtration system. Experiments were performed according to L₁₆ standard orthogonal array based on five process parameters, namely: mono screw design, screw speed of the mono and twin-screw extruder, melt pump pressure, and filter mesh size. The objective of this optimization is to improve the durability of the Polyethylene (PE) blend by decreasing the loss of Stress Crack resistance (SCR) using Notched Crack Ligament Stress (NCLS) test and Unnotched Crack Ligament Stress (UCLS) in parallel with increasing the gain of Izod impact strength of the Polyethylene (PE) blend before and after recycling. Based on Grey Relational Analysis (GRA), the optimal setting of process parameters was identified, and the results indicated that the mono-screw design and screw speed of both mono and twin-screw extruder impact significantly the mechanical properties of recycled Polyethylene (PE) blend.Keywords: Taguchi, recycling line, polyethylene, stress crack resistance, Izod impact strength, grey relational analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 833768 Application of NBR 14861: 2011 for the Design of Prestress Hollow Core Slabs Subjected to Shear
Authors: Alessandra Aparecida Vieira França, Adriana de Paula Lacerda Santos, Mauro Lacerda Santos Filho
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The purpose of this research i to study the behavior of precast prestressed hollow core slabs subjected to shear. In order to achieve this goal, shear tests were performed using hollow core slabs 26,5cm thick, with and without a concrete cover of 5 cm, without cores filled, with two cores filled and three cores filled with concrete. The tests were performed according to the procedures recommended by FIP (1992), the EN 1168:2005 and following the method presented in Costa (2009). The ultimate shear strength obtained within the tests was compared with the values of theoretical resistant shear calculated in accordance with the codes, which are being used in Brazil, noted: NBR 6118:2003 and NBR 14861:2011. When calculating the shear resistance through the equations presented in NBR 14861:2011, it was found that provision is much more accurate for the calculation of the shear strength of hollow core slabs than the NBR 6118 code. Due to the large difference between the calculated results, even for slabs without cores filled, the authors consulted the committee that drafted the NBR 14861:2011 and found that there is an error in the text of the standard, because the coefficient that is suggested, actually presents the double value than the needed one! The ABNT, later on, soon issued an amendment of NBR 14861:2011 with the necessary corrections. During the tests for the present study, it was confirmed that the concrete filling the cores contributes to increase the shear strength of hollow core slabs. But in case of slabs 26,5 cm thick, the quantity should be limited to a maximum of two cores filled, because most of the results for slabs with three cores filled were smaller. This confirmed the recommendation of NBR 14861:2011which is consistent with standard practice. After analyzing the configuration of cracking and failure mechanisms of hollow core slabs during the shear tests, strut and tie models were developed representing the forces acting on the slab at the moment of rupture. Through these models the authors were able to calculate the tensile stress acting on the concrete ties (ribs) and scaled the geometry of these ties. The conclusions of the research performed are the experiments results have shown that the mechanism of failure of the hollow-core slabs can be predicted using the strut-and-tie procedure, within a good range of accuracy. In addition, the needed of the correction of the Brazilian standard to review the correction factor σcp duplicated (in NBR14861/2011), and the limitation of the number of cores (Holes) to be filled with concrete, to increase the strength of the slab for the shear resistance. It is also suggested the increasing the amount of test results with 26.5 cm thick, and a larger range of thickness slabs, in order to obtain results of shear tests with cores concreted after the release of prestressing force. Another set of shear tests on slabs must be performed in slabs with cores filled and cover concrete reinforced with welded steel mesh for comparison with results of theoretical values calculated by the new revision of the standard NBR 14861:2011.Keywords: prestressed hollow core slabs, shear, strut, tie models
Procedia PDF Downloads 3333767 A Convolution Neural Network Approach to Predict Pes-Planus Using Plantar Pressure Mapping Images
Authors: Adel Khorramrouz, Monireh Ahmadi Bani, Ehsan Norouzi, Morvarid Lalenoor
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Background: Plantar pressure distribution measurement has been used for a long time to assess foot disorders. Plantar pressure is an important component affecting the foot and ankle function and Changes in plantar pressure distribution could indicate various foot and ankle disorders. Morphologic and mechanical properties of the foot may be important factors affecting the plantar pressure distribution. Accurate and early measurement may help to reduce the prevalence of pes planus. With recent developments in technology, new techniques such as machine learning have been used to assist clinicians in predicting patients with foot disorders. Significance of the study: This study proposes a neural network learning-based flat foot classification methodology using static foot pressure distribution. Methodologies: Data were collected from 895 patients who were referred to a foot clinic due to foot disorders. Patients with pes planus were labeled by an experienced physician based on clinical examination. Then all subjects (with and without pes planus) were evaluated for static plantar pressures distribution. Patients who were diagnosed with the flat foot in both feet were included in the study. In the next step, the leg length was normalized and the network was trained for plantar pressure mapping images. Findings: From a total of 895 image data, 581 were labeled as pes planus. A computational neural network (CNN) ran to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The prediction accuracy of the basic CNN-based model was performed and the prediction model was derived through the proposed methodology. In the basic CNN model, the training accuracy was 79.14%, and the test accuracy was 72.09%. Conclusion: This model can be easily and simply used by patients with pes planus and doctors to predict the classification of pes planus and prescreen for possible musculoskeletal disorders related to this condition. However, more models need to be considered and compared for higher accuracy.Keywords: foot disorder, machine learning, neural network, pes planus
Procedia PDF Downloads 3603766 Performance Evaluations of Lap Spliced Joint of Decked Bulb-Tee Type Modular Bridge
Authors: Sang-Yoon Lee, Jae-Joon Song
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Precast decked bulb-tee girder or precast deck generally adopts in-situ connections of loop joints. Loop joint could be an effective method to connect precast concrete members where the width of joint is not wide sufficiently to allow the lap splice length of reinforcing bars. However, the regulation for the minimum bend diameter of looped rebar gives limitation not to reduce the thickness of precast concrete member; thus, in-situ connection adopting loop joint place a constraint on improving the structural efficiency of precast concrete member. Ultra high strength concrete (UHSC) is effective on reduce the development and lap splice length of reinforcing bar. In-situ connection with UHSC gives a merit to reduce connection width. This study intends to investigate the details of the longitudinal joint to be applied in the precast modular bridge using decked bulb-tee girder that has been recently developed in Korea. This paper presents the details applying UHSC and lap splices of straight reinforcement and results of tests. Several tests were performed on flexural specimens with longitudinal joints to verify the length of the lap splices and amount of transverse reinforcement, and to examine the flexural strength of the longitudinal joint.Keywords: precast structure, decked bulb-tee girder, in-situ connection, UHSC, modular bridge
Procedia PDF Downloads 4613765 Critical Study on the Sensitivity of Corrosion Fatigue Crack Growth Rate to Cyclic Waveform and Microstructure in Marine Steel
Authors: V. C. Igwemezie, A. N. Mehmanparast
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The primary focus of this work is to understand how variations in the microstructure and cyclic waveform affect the corrosion fatigue crack growth (CFCG) in steel, especially in the Paris region of the da/dN vs. ΔK curve. This work is important because it provides fundamental information on the modelling, design, selection, and use of steels for various engineering applications in the marine environment. The corrosion fatigue tests data on normalized and thermomechanical control process (TMCP) ferritic-pearlitic steels by the authors were compared with several studies on different microstructures in the literature. The microstructures of these steels are radically different and general comparative fatigue crack growth resistance performance study on the effect of microstructure in these materials are very scarce and where available are limited to few studies. The results, for purposes of engineering application, in this study show less dependency of fatigue crack growth rate (FCGR) on yield strength, tensile strength, ductility, frequency and stress ratio in the range 0.1 – 0.7. The nature of the steel microstructure appears to be a major factor in determining the rate at which fatigue cracks propagate in the entire da/dN vs. ΔK sigmoidal curve. The study also shows that the sine wave shape is the most damaging fatigue waveform for ferritic-pearlitic steels. This tends to suggest that the test under sine waveform would be a conservative approach, regardless of the waveform for design of engineering structures.Keywords: BS7910, corrosion-fatigue crack growth rate, cyclic waveform, microstructure, steel
Procedia PDF Downloads 1553764 Binding Studies of Complexes of Anticancer Drugs with DNA and Enzymes Involved in DNA Replication Using Molecular Docking and Cell Culture Techniques
Authors: Fouzia Perveen, Rumana Qureshi
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The presently studied twelve anticancer drugs are the cytotoxic agents which inhibit the replication of DNA and activity of enzymes involved in DNA replication namely topoisomerase-II, polymerase and helicase and have shown remarkable anticancer activity in clinical trials. In this study, we performed molecular docking studies of twelve antitumor drugs against DNA and DNA enzymes in the presence and absence of ascorbic acid (AA) and developed the quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model for anticancer activity screening. A number of electronic and steric descriptors were calculated using MOE software package. QSAR was established showing a correlation of binding strength with various physicochemical descriptors. Out of these twelve, eight cytotoxic drugs were tested on Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer cell lines (H-157 and H-1299) in the absence and presence of ascorbic acid and experimental IC50 values were calculated. From the docking studies, binding constants were calculated indicating the strength of drug-DNA and drug-enzyme complex formation and it was correlated to the IC50 values (both experimental and theoretical). These results can offer useful references for directing the molecular design of DNA enzyme inhibitor with improved anticancer activity.Keywords: ascorbic acid, binding constant, cytotoxic agents, cell culture, DNA, DNA enzymes, molecular docking
Procedia PDF Downloads 4273763 Fault Prognostic and Prediction Based on the Importance Degree of Test Point
Authors: Junfeng Yan, Wenkui Hou
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Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is a technology to monitor the equipment status and predict impending faults. It is used to predict the potential fault and provide fault information and track trends of system degradation by capturing characteristics signals. So how to detect characteristics signals is very important. The select of test point plays a very important role in detecting characteristics signal. Traditionally, we use dependency model to select the test point containing the most detecting information. But, facing the large complicated system, the dependency model is not built so easily sometimes and the greater trouble is how to calculate the matrix. Rely on this premise, the paper provide a highly effective method to select test point without dependency model. Because signal flow model is a diagnosis model based on failure mode, which focuses on system’s failure mode and the dependency relationship between the test points and faults. In the signal flow model, a fault information can flow from the beginning to the end. According to the signal flow model, we can find out location and structure information of every test point and module. We break the signal flow model up into serial and parallel parts to obtain the final relationship function between the system’s testability or prediction metrics and test points. Further, through the partial derivatives operation, we can obtain every test point’s importance degree in determining the testability metrics, such as undetected rate, false alarm rate, untrusted rate. This contributes to installing the test point according to the real requirement and also provides a solid foundation for the Prognostics and Health Management. According to the real effect of the practical engineering application, the method is very efficient.Keywords: false alarm rate, importance degree, signal flow model, undetected rate, untrusted rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 3773762 Determination of the Bearing Capacity of Granular Pumice Soils by Laboratory Tests
Authors: Mustafa Yildiz, Ali Sinan Soganci
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Pumice soils are countered in many projects such as transportation roads, channels and residential units throughout the World. The pumice deposits are characterized by the vesicular nature of their particles. When the pumice soils are evaluated considering the geotechnical viewpoint, they differ from silica sands in terms of physical and engineering characteristics. These differences are low grain strength, high friction angle, void ratio and compressibility. At stresses greater than a few hundred kPa, the stress-strain-strength behaviour of these soils is determined by particle crushing. Particle crushing leads to changes in the density and reduction in the components of shear stress due to expansion. In this study, the bearing capacity and behaviour of granular pumice soils compared to sand-gravels were investigated by laboratory model tests. Firstly the geotechnical properties of granular pumice soils were determined; then, the behaviour of pumice soils with an equivalent diameter of sand and gravel soils were investigated by model rectangular and circular foundation types and were compared with each other. For this purpose, basic types of model footing (15*15 cm, 20*20 cm, Φ=15 cm and Φ=20 cm) have been selected. When the experimental results of model bearing capacity are analyzed, the values of sand and gravel bearing capacity tests were found to be 1.0-1.5 times higher than the bearing capacity of pumice the same size. This fact has shown that sand and gravel have a higher bearing capacity than pumice of the similar particle sizes.Keywords: pumice soils, laboratory model tests, bearing capacity, laboratory model tests, Nevşehir
Procedia PDF Downloads 2143761 Artificial Neural Network Approach for GIS-Based Soil Macro-Nutrients Mapping
Authors: Shahrzad Zolfagharnassab, Abdul Rashid Mohamed Shariff, Siti Khairunniza Bejo
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Conventional methods for nutrient soil mapping are based on laboratory tests of samples that are obtained from surveys. The time and cost involved in gathering and analyzing soil samples are the reasons that researchers use Predictive Soil Mapping (PSM). PSM can be defined as the development of a numerical or statistical model of the relationship among environmental variables and soil properties, which is then applied to a geographic database to create a predictive map. Kriging is a group of geostatistical techniques to spatially interpolate point values at an unobserved location from observations of values at nearby locations. The main problem with using kriging as an interpolator is that it is excessively data-dependent and requires a large number of closely spaced data points. Hence, there is a need to minimize the number of data points without sacrificing the accuracy of the results. In this paper, an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) scheme was used to predict macronutrient values at un-sampled points. ANN has become a popular tool for prediction as it eliminates certain difficulties in soil property prediction, such as non-linear relationships and non-normality. Back-propagation multilayer feed-forward network structures were used to predict nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium values in the soil of the study area. A limited number of samples were used in the training, validation and testing phases of ANN (pattern reconstruction structures) to classify soil properties and the trained network was used for prediction. The soil analysis results of samples collected from the soil survey of block C of Sawah Sempadan, Tanjung Karang rice irrigation project at Selangor of Malaysia were used. Soil maps were produced by the Kriging method using 236 samples (or values) that were a combination of actual values (obtained from real samples) and virtual values (neural network predicted values). For each macronutrient element, three types of maps were generated with 118 actual and 118 virtual values, 59 actual and 177 virtual values, and 30 actual and 206 virtual values, respectively. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, for each macronutrient element, a base map using 236 actual samples and test maps using 118, 59 and 30 actual samples respectively produced by the Kriging method. A set of parameters was defined to measure the similarity of the maps that were generated with the proposed method, termed the sample reduction method. The results show that the maps that were generated through the sample reduction method were more accurate than the corresponding base maps produced through a smaller number of real samples. For example, nitrogen maps that were produced from 118, 59 and 30 real samples have 78%, 62%, 41% similarity, respectively with the base map (236 samples) and the sample reduction method increased similarity to 87%, 77%, 71%, respectively. Hence, this method can reduce the number of real samples and substitute ANN predictive samples to achieve the specified level of accuracy.Keywords: artificial neural network, kriging, macro nutrient, pattern recognition, precision farming, soil mapping
Procedia PDF Downloads 703760 Effect of Site Amplification on Seismic Safety Evaluation of Flyover Pier
Authors: Mohammad Raihan Mukhlis, M. Abdur Rahman Bhuiyan
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Bangladesh is a developing country in which a lot of multi-span simply/continuous supported flyovers are being constructed in its major cities. Being situated in a seismically active region, seismic safety evaluation of flyovers is essential for seismic risk reduction. Effects of site amplification on seismic safety evaluation of flyover piers are the main concern of this study. In this regard, failure mode, lateral strength and displacement ductility of piers of a typical multi-span simply supported flyover have been evaluated by Japan Road Association (JRA) recommended guidelines, with and without considering site amplification. Ultimate flexural strengths of piers have been computed using the pushover analysis results. Shear capacity of piers has been calculated using the guidelines of JRA. Lateral strengths have been determined depending on the failure modes of the piers. Displacement ductility of piers has been computed using yield and ultimate displacements of the piers obtained from the pushover analysis results. Selected earthquake time history is used in seismic safety evaluation of the flyover piers. Finally, the ductility design method is used to conduct the seismic safety evaluation of the piers with and without considering site amplification. From the numerical results, it has been revealed that the effects of site amplification on seismic safety evaluation of bridge structures should be carefully taken into account.Keywords: displacement ductility, flyover pier, lateral strength, safety evaluation, site amplification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1703759 Experimental Work to Estimate the Strength of Ferrocement Slabs Incorporating Silica Fume and Steel Fibre
Authors: Mohammed Mashrei
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Ferrocement is a type of thin reinforced concrete made of cement-sand matrix with closely spaced relatively small diameter wire meshes, with or without steel bars of small diameter called skeletal steel. This work concerns on the behavior of square ferrocement slabs of dimensions (500) mm x (500) mm and 30 mm subjected to a central load. This study includes testing thirteen ferrocement slabs. The main variables considered in the experimental work are the number of wire mesh layers, percentage of silica fume and the presence of steel fiber. The effects of these variables on the behavior and load carrying capacity of tested slabs under central load were investigated. From the experimental results, it is found that by increasing the percentage of silica fume from (0 to 1.5, 3, 4.5 and 6) of weight of cement the ultimate loads are affected. Also From this study, it is observed that the load carrying capacity increases with the presence of steel fiber reinforcement, the ductility is high in the case of steel fibers. The increasing wire mesh layer from six to ten layers increased the load capacity by 76%. Also, a reduction in width of crack with increasing in number of cracks in the samples that content on steel fibers comparing with samples without steel fibers was observed from the results.Keywords: ferrocement, fibre, silica fume, slab, strength
Procedia PDF Downloads 2353758 Modification of Rk Equation of State for Liquid and Vapor of Ammonia by Genetic Algorithm
Authors: S. Mousavian, F. Mousavian, V. Nikkhah Rashidabad
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Cubic equations of state like Redlich–Kwong (RK) EOS have been proved to be very reliable tools in the prediction of phase behavior. Despite their good performance in compositional calculations, they usually suffer from weaknesses in the predictions of saturated liquid density. In this research, RK equation was modified. The result of this study shows that modified equation has good agreement with experimental data.Keywords: equation of state, modification, ammonia, genetic algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 3823757 Deep Learning Prediction of Residential Radon Health Risk in Canada and Sweden to Prevent Lung Cancer Among Non-Smokers
Authors: Selim M. Khan, Aaron A. Goodarzi, Joshua M. Taron, Tryggve Rönnqvist
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Indoor air quality, a prime determinant of health, is strongly influenced by the presence of hazardous radon gas within the built environment. As a health issue, dangerously high indoor radon arose within the 20th century to become the 2nd leading cause of lung cancer. While the 21st century building metrics and human behaviors have captured, contained, and concentrated radon to yet higher and more hazardous levels, the issue is rapidly worsening in Canada. It is established that Canadians in the Prairies are the 2nd highest radon-exposed population in the world, with 1 in 6 residences experiencing 0.2-6.5 millisieverts (mSv) radiation per week, whereas the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission sets maximum 5-year occupational limits for atomic workplace exposure at only 20 mSv. This situation is also deteriorating over time within newer housing stocks containing higher levels of radon. Deep machine learning (LSTM) algorithms were applied to analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features, determine the most important contributory factors, and predicted radon levels in the known past (1990-2020) and projected future (2021-2050). The findings showed gradual downwards patterns in Sweden, whereas it would continue to go from high to higher levels in Canada over time. The contributory factors found to be the basement porosity, roof insulation depthness, R-factor, and air dynamics of the indoor environment related to human window opening behaviour. Building codes must consider including these factors to ensure adequate indoor ventilation and healthy living that can prevent lung cancer in non-smokers.Keywords: radon, building metrics, deep learning, LSTM prediction model, lung cancer, canada, sweden
Procedia PDF Downloads 1123756 Influence of 3D Printing Parameters on Surface Finish of Ceramic Hip Prostheses Fixed by Means of Osteointegration
Authors: Irene Buj-Corral, Ali Bagheri, Alejandro Dominguez-Fernandez
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In recent years, use of ceramic prostheses as an implant in some parts of body has become common. In the present study, research has focused on replacement of the acetabulum bone, which is a part of the pelvis bone. Metallic prostheses have shown some problems such as release of metal ions into patient's blood. In addition, fracture of liners and squeezing between surface of femoral head and inner surface of acetabulum have been reported. Ceramic prostheses have the advantage of low debris and high strength, although they are more difficult to be manufactured than metallic ones. Specifically, new designs try to attempt an acetabulum in which the outer surface will be porous for proliferation of cells and fixation of the prostheses by means of osteointegration, while inner surface must be smooth enough to assure that the movement between femoral head and inner surface will be carried out with on feasibility. In the present study, 3D printing technologies are used for manufacturing ceramic prostheses. In Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) process, 3D printed plastic prostheses are obtained by means of melting of a plastic filament and subsequent deposition on a glass surface. A similar process is applied to ceramics in which ceramic powders need to be mixed with a liquid polymer before depositing them. After 3D printing, parts are subjected to a sintering process in an oven so that they can achieve final strength. In the present paper, influence of printing parameters on surface roughness 3D printed ceramic parts are presented. Three parameter full factorial design of experiments was used. Selected variables were layer height, infill and nozzle diameter. Responses were average roughness Ra and mean roughness depth Rz. Regression analysis was applied to responses in order to obtain mathematical models for responses. Results showed that surface roughness depends mainly on layer height and nozzle diameter employed, while infill was found not to be significant. In order to get low surface roughness, low layer height and low infill should be selected. As a conclusion, layer height and infill are important parameters for obtaining good surface finish in ceramic 3D printed prostheses. However, use of too low infill could lead to prostheses with low mechanical strength. Such prostheses could not be able to bear the static and dynamic charges to which they are subjected once they are implanted in the body. This issue will be addressed in further research.Keywords: ceramic, hip prostheses, surface roughness, 3D printing
Procedia PDF Downloads 1973755 Earthquake Identification to Predict Tsunami in Andalas Island, Indonesia Using Back Propagation Method and Fuzzy TOPSIS Decision Seconder
Authors: Muhamad Aris Burhanudin, Angga Firmansyas, Bagus Jaya Santosa
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Earthquakes are natural hazard that can trigger the most dangerous hazard, tsunami. 26 December 2004, a giant earthquake occurred in north-west Andalas Island. It made giant tsunami which crushed Sumatra, Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Singapore. More than twenty thousand people dead. The occurrence of earthquake and tsunami can not be avoided. But this hazard can be mitigated by earthquake forecasting. Early preparation is the key factor to reduce its damages and consequences. We aim to investigate quantitatively on pattern of earthquake. Then, we can know the trend. We study about earthquake which has happened in Andalas island, Indonesia one last decade. Andalas is island which has high seismicity, more than a thousand event occur in a year. It is because Andalas island is in tectonic subduction zone of Hindia sea plate and Eurasia plate. A tsunami forecasting is needed to mitigation action. Thus, a Tsunami Forecasting Method is presented in this work. Neutral Network has used widely in many research to estimate earthquake and it is convinced that by using Backpropagation Method, earthquake can be predicted. At first, ANN is trained to predict Tsunami 26 December 2004 by using earthquake data before it. Then after we get trained ANN, we apply to predict the next earthquake. Not all earthquake will trigger Tsunami, there are some characteristics of earthquake that can cause Tsunami. Wrong decision can cause other problem in the society. Then, we need a method to reduce possibility of wrong decision. Fuzzy TOPSIS is a statistical method that is widely used to be decision seconder referring to given parameters. Fuzzy TOPSIS method can make the best decision whether it cause Tsunami or not. This work combines earthquake prediction using neural network method and using Fuzzy TOPSIS to determine the decision that the earthquake triggers Tsunami wave or not. Neural Network model is capable to capture non-linear relationship and Fuzzy TOPSIS is capable to determine the best decision better than other statistical method in tsunami prediction.Keywords: earthquake, fuzzy TOPSIS, neural network, tsunami
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