Search results for: debt crisis

Authors: Ichihan Tai, Bill Olson, Paul Blessner

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Traditional early warning systems that alarm against crisis are generally based on structured or numerical data; therefore, a system that can make predictions based on unstructured textual data, an uncorrelated data source, is a great complement to the traditional early warning systems. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), commonly referred to as the fear index, measures the cost of insurance against market crash, and spikes in the event of crisis. In this study, news data is consumed for prediction of whether there will be a market-wide crisis by predicting the movement of the fear index, and the historical references to similar events are presented in an unsupervised manner. Topic modeling-based prediction and representation are made based on daily news data between 1990 and 2015 from The Wall Street Journal against VIX index data from CBOE.

Keywords: early warning system, knowledge management, market prediction, topic modeling.

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Authors: James P. Takona

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Most of the global population has never lived through a pandemic, and thus there is so much that remains unknown about students' capacity for resiliency under such environments and circumstances and what a timeline for full recovery will look like. The session will guide participants to focus on misinformation and disinformation in the context of recent crisis events, with specific reference to how information flows across. Particular focus will be given to the flow of information in mediated technology and platforms with particular reference to K-12 and teacher preparation program environments. The paper will draw on theories and responses from the sociology of disaster, the social psychology of rumoring, and published studies on disinformation and misinformation. Applications will be identified and applied in the context of online information-sharing during crisis events. The session will offer the application of the Center for Contagious Diseases' Crisis and Emergency Risk Communication model to understand the themes and evolution of misinformation and disinformation. The paper will invite session participants to suggest and interact with raised challenges on the impact of dis-and misinformation.

Keywords: Sociology of disaster, misinformation, dis-information, Social Psychology of rumors

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Authors: Sima Hajiazizi

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Tehran is a capital of Iran, with the capitals of the world to natural disasters such as earthquake and flood vulnerable has known. City has stated on three faults, Ray, Mosha, and north according to report of JICA in 2000, the most casualties and destruction was the result of active fault Ray. In 2003, the prevention and management of crisis in Tehran to conduct prevention and rehabilitation of the city, under the Ministry has active. Given the breadth and lack of appropriate access in the city, was considered decentralized management for crisis management support, in each region, in order to position the crisis management headquarters at the time of crises and implementation of programs for prevention and education of the citizens and also to position the bases given in some areas of the neighboring provinces at the time of the accident for help and a number of databases to store food and equipment needed at the time of the disaster. In this study, the bases for one, six, nine and eleven regions of Tehran in the field of management and training are evaluated. Selected areas had local accident and experience of practice for disaster management and local training has been experiencing challenges. The research approach was used qualitative research methods underlying Ground theory. At first, the information obtained through the study of documents and Semi-structured interviews by administrators, officials of training and participant observation in the classroom, line by line, and then it was coded in two stages, by comparing and questioning concepts, categories and extract according to the indicators is obtained from literature studies, subjects were been central. Main articles according to the frequency and importance of the phenomenon were called and they were drawn diagram paradigm and at the end with the intersections phenomena and their causes with indicators extracted from the texts, approach each phenomenon and the effectiveness of the bases was measured. There are two phenomenons in management; 1. The inability to manage the vast and complex crisis events and to resolve minor incidents due to the mismatch between managers. 2. Weaknesses in the implementation of preventive measures and preparedness to manage crisis is causal of situations, fields and intervening. There are five phenomenons in the field of education; 1. In the six-region participation and interest is high. 2. In eleven-region training partnerships for crisis management were to low that next by maneuver in schools and local initiatives such as advertising and use of aid groups have increased. 3. In nine-region, contributions to education in the area of crisis management at the beginning were low that initiatives like maneuver in schools and communities to stimulate and increase participation have increased sensitivity. 4. Managers have been disagreement with the same training in all areas. Finally for the issues that are causing the main issues, with the help of concepts extracted from the literature, recommendations are provided.

Keywords: crises management, crisis management support bases, vulnerability, crisis management headquarters, prevention

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Authors: Olivier Mesly

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This research presents a conceptual framework termed “Consumer Financial Spinning” (CFS) to analyze consumer behavior in the financial/economic markets. This phenomenon occurs when consumers of high-stakes financial products accumulate unsustainable debt, leading them to detach from their initial financial hierarchy of needs, wealth-related goals, and preferences regarding their household portfolio of assets. The daring actions of these consumers, forming a dark financial triangle, are characterized by three behaviors: overconfidence, the use of rationed rationality, and deceitfulness. We show that we can incorporate CFS into the traditional CAPM and Markovitz’ portfolio optimization models to create a framework that explains such market phenomena as the global financial crisis, highlighting the antecedents and consequences of ill-conceived speculation. Because this is a conceptual paper, there is no methodology with respect to ground studies. However, we apply modeling principles derived from the data percolation methodology, which contains tenets explicating how to structure concepts. A simulation test of the proposed framework is conducted; it demonstrates the conditions under which the relationship between expected returns and risk may deviate from linearity. The analysis and conceptual findings are particularly relevant both theoretically and pragmatically as they shed light on the psychological conditions that drive intense speculation, which can lead to market turmoil. Armed with such understanding, regulators are better equipped to propose solutions before the economic problems become out of control.

Keywords: consumer financial spinning, rationality, deceitfulness, overconfidence, CAPM

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Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The solution to the Rohingya crisis has become complicated than it was anticipated. Because of consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma, four major influxes of the Rohingya people took place to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda, and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving such a large number of Rohingya, eventually finding a solution to the Rohingya crisis has become a serious problem. The host country and the Rohingya themselves long for repatriation, the most desired solution to the crisis. But going back to their own country is now almost an impossible matter due to the unwillingness of the Myanmar government. The other two options to the solution to Rohingya crisis – reintegration in the host country and third country resettlement – have drawn little attention until now. On the one hand, the geopolitical factors have been making the Rohingya crisis complex. On the other, the war and conflict between Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel have lessening the importance of the Rohingya issue and been diverting the world’s attention from the Rohingya crisis. Clearly, without the support of international community, Bangladesh finds no sustainable way to repatriate 1.1 million Rohingya. Yet, possibilities of a third country resettlement remain unexplored. In the past few years, some countries have expressed interest in accepting the Rohingya as part of third country resettlement but the number they wanted to take is like a drop in the ocean. This paper examines the roadblocks for third country resettlement of the Rohingya. It aims to look at the underlying reasons for which international community is less interested in accepting the Rohingya as refugees. Is it the racial and religious identity of the Rohingya that are considered problematic to the resettlement process? In what ways geopolitical complexities affecting the resettlement issue? How do the Rohingya view third country resettlement? This paper looks for the answers to these questions. The paper is based on qualitative study conducted from 2016-2018 and 2021-2023 in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. The camp management authority, the Rohingya themselves, and the NGOs working in the camp participated in the study.

Keywords: rohingya, refugee, resettlement, bangladesh

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Authors: Joseph Paul Chunga

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The investment universe is awash with a myriad of financial choices that investors have to opt for, which principally culminates into a duality between aggressive or conservative approaches. Howbeit, it is pertinent to emphasize that the investment vehicles with an aggressive approach tend to take on more risk than the latter group in an effort to generate higher future returns for their respective investors. This study examines the conditionality effect that such partiality in financing has on the High-Tech and Public Utility companies listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SSE). Specifically, it examines the significance of the relationship between capitalization ratios of Total Debt Ratio (TDR), Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) and profitability ratios of Earnings per Share (EPS) and Returns on Equity (ROE) on the Financial Risk of the two industries. We employ a modified version of the Panel Regression Model used by Rahman (2017) to estimate the relationship. The study finds that there is a significant positive relationship between the capitalization ratios on the financial risk of Public Utility companies more than High-Tech companies and a substantial negative relationship between the profitability ratios and the financial risk of the former than the latter companies. This then spells an important insight for prospective investors with regards to the volatility of earnings of such companies.

Keywords: financial leverage, debt financing, conservative firms, aggressive firms

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Authors: Urbánek Jiří J., Krahulec Josef, Urbánek Jiří F., Johanidesová Jitka

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These Computational assistance for the research and modelling of critical infrastructure subjects continuity deal with this paper. It enables us the using of prevailing operation system MS Office (SmartArt...) for mathematical models, using DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) method. It serves for crisis situations investigation and modelling within the organizations of critical infrastructure. In the first part of the paper, it will be introduced entities, operators and actors of DYVELOP method. It uses just three operators of Boolean algebra and four types of the entities: the Environments, the Process Systems, the Cases and the Controlling. The Process Systems (PrS) have five “brothers”: Management PrS, Transformation PrS, Logistic PrS, Event PrS and Operation PrS. The Cases have three “sisters”: Process Cell Case, Use Case and Activity Case. They all need for the controlling of their functions special Ctrl actors, except ENV – it can do without Ctrl. Model´s maps are named the Blazons and they are able mathematically - graphically express the relationships among entities, actors and processes. In the second part of this paper, the rich blazons of DYVELOP method will be used for the discovering and modelling of the cycling cases and their phases. The blazons need live PowerPoint presentation for better comprehension of this paper mission. The crisis management of energetic crisis infrastructure organization is obliged to use the cycles for successful coping of crisis situations. Several times cycling of these cases is a necessary condition for the encompassment of the both the emergency event and the mitigation of organization´s damages. Uninterrupted and continuous cycling process bring for crisis management fruitfulness and it is a good indicator and controlling actor of organizational continuity and its sustainable development advanced possibilities. The research reliable rules are derived for the safety and reliable continuity of energetic critical infrastructure organization in the crisis situation.

Keywords: blazons, computational assistance, DYVELOP method, critical infrastructure

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Authors: Victoria Wolf, Renata Dobrucka, Robert Prezkop, Stephan Haubold

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The COVID-19 causes a worldwide crisis and has an impact in every dimension of the economy. Organizations with the ability to adapt to new developments and which innovate solutions for the disrupted world during and after the Corona crises have the opportunity to not only survive the crisis but rather to use new trends to implement new business models and gain advantage. In this context, startups seem to have better opportunities to manage the Corona crisis through their innovation-based nature. The main result of this paper is the understanding that by applying a startup orientated innovation (SOCI) strategy, established companies can be motivated to meet the challenge of COVID-19 in a similar way like startups. This result can be achieved by describing the role of innovation and a SOCI strategy as helpful methods for organizations to meet the coming challenges during and after the COVID-19 epidemics. In addition to this, this paper presents a practical application of SOCI through the PANDA approach of the Fresenius University of Applied Sciences in Germany and discuss it in the context of COVID-19 as an exemplary successful real-world implementation of SOCI strategy.

Keywords: Covid-19, innovation, open innovation, startup, soci framework

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdizadeh, Sara Miri

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Due to the recent events surrounding the global health crisis and the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the activities of many businesses and start-up companies have been disrupted. It solves many economic problems and can reduce unemployment in countries because governments can take advantage of their potential without direct investment. However, with the help of their innovative ideas and new technologies, these companies can develop and grow the economy. But it is essential to consider that there will be no guarantee of their success in the event of unforeseen events, as the coronavirus outbreak in the last two years has seriously damaged these companies and, like other businesses, challenges and stagnation have started. The startup companies' challenge in the face of coronavirus begins with its impact on customers. Changing customer behavior can affect their products and distribution channels. On the other hand, to prevent countless losses in this crisis, startup companies require creative solutions to address challenges in various areas of human capital, supply chain management, sales and marketing, and so on. Therefore, all business leaders must consider and plan for the current crisis and the future; after overcoming these conditions and returning to regular business routines, it will no longer be an option, and new situations will prevail in a competitive environment. The essential strategies for developing and growing startups during the Coronavirus outbreak can be connecting with the global startup ecosystem, hosting webinars, providing podcasts and free question and answer sessions, mentoring services to growing teams, and consulting pointed out this to firms for digitalization.

Keywords: business, COVID-19, digitalization, startups

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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2019 marked 23 years since Purdue Pharma launched its flagship drug, OxyContin, that unleashed an unprecedented epidemic touching both celebrities and common citizens, metropolitan, suburbia and rural areas and all levels of socioeconomic status. From rural Appalachia to East LA individuals, families and communities have been devastated by a trajectory of addiction that often began with the legitimate prescription of a pain killer for anything from a tooth extraction to a sports injury to recovery from surgery or chronic arthritis. Far from being a serendipitous progression of events, the proliferation of this new breed of 'miracle drug' was instead a carefully crafted marketing program aimed at both the medical community and common citizens. This research represents and in-depth investigation of the evolution of the marketing, distribution and promotion of prescription opioids by pharmaceutical companies and its relationship to the propagation of the opioid crisis. Specifically, key components of Purdue Pharma’s aggressive marketing campaign, including its bonus system and sales incentives, were analyzed in the context of the sociopolitical environment that essential created the proverbial 'perfect storm' for the changing manner in which pain is treated in the U.S. The analyses of these series of events clearly indicate their role in first, the increase in prescription of opioids for non-terminal pain relief and subsequently, the incidence of related addiction, overdose, and death. Through this examination of the conditions that facilitated and maintained this drug crisis, perhaps we can begin to chart a course toward its resolution.

Keywords: addiction, opioid, opioid crisis, Purdue Pharma

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Authors: Murat Çolak, Elifnaz Tanyıldızı

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Today, human mobility with globalization has increased the interaction between countries significantly; although this contact has advanced societies in terms of civilization, it has also increased the likelihood of pandemics. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which caused the most loss of life among them, turned into a global epidemic by covering the whole world in a short time. While there was an explosion in demand in some businesses around the world, some businesses temporarily stopped or had to stop their activities. The businesses affected by the crisis had to adapt to the new legal regulations but had to make changes in matters such as their working styles, human resources practices, and policies. One of the measures taken into account is the reduction of the workforce. The current COVID-19 crisis has posed serious challenges for many organizations and has generated an unprecedented wave of termination notices. This study examined examples of companies affected by the pandemic process and changed their working policies after the pandemic. This study aims to reveal the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on human resources policies and employees and how these situations will affect businesses in the future.

Keywords: human resource management, crisis management, COVID-19, business function

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Authors: Leja Salciute

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Mental health difficulties are one of the reasons for abnormal feeding behaviour. This is especially evident in a crisis situation. Abnormal feeding behaviour occurs when individuals use food as a method to provide relief for these negative emotions. The study aimed to discover an association between emotional regulation, mental health difficulties and disruption in feeding behaviours in the UK in times of crisis. A mixed-methods design was used. Abnormal feeding behaviour was measured using the Binge Eating Disorder Screener-7, SCOFF scale, Crisis impact scale, Difficulties in Emotion Regulation Scale and demographics. The sample comprised 342 participants with a history of excessive overeating. The participants (male= 198, female= 141 and other= 3) came from the general population and they were aged 16 and over. Participants ranged in age from 16 to 89. Findings from the survey concluded that difficulties with emotion regulation were found to be associated with abnormal feeding behaviours. Mental health difficulties correlated significantly with changes in individuals’ lives, such as work or routines. Individuals differed in their abnormal feeding behaviour in terms of their age, that is, younger individuals showed less struggle with their eating patterns while older individuals faced greater struggles with their abnormal feeding behaviour. Emotion regulation significantly influenced abnormal feeding behaviour. Results from qualitative data suggest four common themes that were identified: demonstration of gratitude, negative emotions, disruptions to social life, and financial loss. For example, participants developed and gained an awareness of being grateful for the simple things in life even when participants experienced hardships. The results also suggested that emotional eating acted like a sedative that allowed the participant to run away from their painful reality. Crisis situation negatively affected relationships among participants and induced negativity related to social interaction. Finally, the respondents highlighted that the presence of uncertainty made it hard to plan ahead and look forward to the future. Although respondents experienced negative emotions and financial losses, some of them still managed to allocate time for themselves and enjoy their time off during crisis. However, majority of respondents referred to their inability to control their external circumstances and turned to and relied upon food overconsumption instead. This had a negative effect on their mental health and presented disruptions in feeding behaviour. It was recommended for individuals in times of crisis to seek psychological support in the form of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT).

Keywords: binge eating, maladaptive eating behaviours, mental health, negative emotions in crisis

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Authors: Jiri Barta, Jiří F. Urbanek

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This paper deals with a protection of the national and European infrastructure. It is issue nowadays. The paper deals with the perspectives and possibilities of "smart solutions" to critical infrastructure protection. The research project deals with computers aided technologies are used from the perspective of new, better protection of selected infrastructure objects. Protection is focused on communication and information channels. These communication and information channels are very important for the functioning of the system of protection of critical infrastructure elements.

Keywords: interoperability, communication systems, controlling proces, critical infrastructure, crisis workplaces, continuity

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Authors: A. Yakub AbdurRaheem

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Urban violence in the form of ethnic and religious conflicts have been on the increase in many African cities in the recent years of which most of them are the result of intense and bitter competition for political power, the control of limited economic, social and environmental resources. In Nigeria, the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency in most parts of the northeastern parts have ignited violence, bloodshed, refugee exodus and internal migration. Not only do the persistent attacks of the sect create widespread insecurity and fear, but it has also stifled normal processes of trade and investments most especially real property investment which is acclaimed to accelerate the economic cycle, thus the need to evolve strategies for an improved property market in such areas. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of this social crisis on effective and efficient utilization of real properties as a resource towards the development of the economy, using a descriptive analysis approach where particular emphasis was based on trends in residential housing values; volume of estimated property transactions and real estate investment decisions by affected individuals. Findings indicate that social crisis in the affected areas have been a clog on the wheels of property development and investment as properties worth hundreds of millions have been destroyed thereby having great impact on property values. Based on these findings, recommendations were made to include the need to strategically continue investing in property during such times, the need for Nigerian government to establish an active conflict monitoring and management unit for the prompt response, encourage community and neighborhood policing to ameliorate security challenges in Nigeria.

Keywords: social crisis, economy, resources, property market

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Authors: Nicolas D. Norboge

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Purchasers of municipal bonds in primary and secondary markets are increasingly expecting issuers to disclose environmental, social, and governance factors (ESG) inissuance and continuing disclosure documents. U.S. tolling authorities are slowly catching up with other transportation sectors, such as public transit, in integrating ESG factors into their bond disclosure documents. A systematic mixed-methods evaluation of publicly available bond disclosure documents from 2010-2022 suggest that only a small number of U.S. tolling authorities disclosedall ESG factors; however, the pace has accelerated significantly from 2020-2022. Because many tolling authorities have a direct financial stake in the growth of passenger vehicle miles traveled on their toll facilities, and in turn the burning of more climate-warming fossil fuels, one crucial questionthat remains is how bond purchasers will view increasedESG transparency. Recent moves by large institutional investors, credit rating agencies, and regulators suggestan expectation of ESG disclosure is a trend likely to endure. This researchsuggests tolling authorities will need to proactively consider these emerging trends and carefully adapt their disclosure practiceswhere possible. Building on these findings, this research also provides a basic sketch framework for how issuers can responsibly position themselves within the changing global municipal debt marketplace.

Keywords: debt policy, ESG, municipal bonds, public-private partnerships, public tolling authorities, transportation finance, and policy

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Authors: Onimisi Ekuh Abdullahi, Lasbat Omoshalewa Akinsemoyin

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In Nigeria, over two decades now, there has been a steady increase in the insecurity of human lives and physical properties. In the South-South Nigeria, there is an acute insecurity of militants destroying oil pipe-lines and kidnapping cases; in the Middle-Belt zone, insecurity centers on kidnapping and in a few states crises between Herdsmen and Farmers range like wildfire; in the South-Western zone, kidnapping is vile, in the North-East zone the issue of Boko Haram has become World-wide concern, and in North-west zone, cattle rustlers and religious crisis are of great concern. At the initial stage, the Nigerian Police Force was called upon to quell the crisis. It soon became obvious that the dimension of the crisis was beyond police force. The Nigerian Armed Forces were called to maintain peace and order because the magnitude of the crisis was threatening the national unity and cohesion. The main objective of this paper, was to examine the investigative techniques of criminal by the military in Nigeria. Specifically to examine the physical and psychological force; the abusive techniques and tactics; and suggest modern psychological techniques of interrogating criminals accepted to Human Right Activists and the rule of law. The process is to create room behaviour and practices that carefully monitored the trust and reliability of admissions produced by Psychological manipulative process in Nigeria.

Keywords: military, Nigerian criminal, physical, psychological force

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Authors: Maria Krambia-Kapardis, Andreas Kapardis

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The paper discusses regulatory and legislative measures implemented by various nations in an effort to avert another financial crisis. More specifically, to address the financial crisis, the European Commission followed the practice of other developed countries and implemented a European Economic Recovery Plan in an attempt to overhaul the regulatory and supervisory framework of the financial sector. In 2010 the Commission introduced the European Systemic Risk Board and in 2011 the European System of Financial Supervision. Some experts advocated that the type and extent of financial regulation introduced in the European crisis in the wake of the 2008 crisis has been excessive and counterproductive. In considering how different countries responded to the financial crisis, global regulators have shown a more focused commitment to combat industry misconduct and to pre-empt abusive behavior. Regulators have also increased funding and resources at their disposal; have increased regulatory fines, with an increasing trend towards action against individuals; and, finally, have focused on market abuse and market conduct issues. Financial regulation can be effected, first of all, through legislation. However, neither ex ante or ex post regulation is by itself effective in reducing systemic risk. Consequently, to avert a financial crisis, in their endeavor to achieve both economic efficiency and financial stability, governments need to balance the two approaches to financial regulation. Fiduciary duty is another means by which the behavior of actors in the financial world is constrained and, thus, regulated. Furthermore, fiduciary duties extend over and above other existing requirements set out by statute and/or common law and cover allegations of breach of fiduciary duty, negligence or fraud. Careful analysis of the etiology of the 2008 financial crisis demonstrates the great importance of corporate governance as a way of regulating boardroom behavior. In addition, the regulation of professions including accountants and auditors plays a crucial role as far as the financial management of companies is concerned. In the US, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 established the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board in order to protect investors from financial accounting fraud. In most countries around the world, however, accounting regulation consists of a legal framework, international standards, education, and licensure. Accounting regulation is necessary because of the information asymmetry and the conflict of interest that exists between managers and users of financial information. If a holistic approach is to be taken then one cannot ignore the regulation of legislators themselves which can take the form of hard or soft legislation. The science of averting a financial crisis is yet to be perfected and this, as shown by the preceding discussion, is unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future as ‘disaster myopia’ may be reduced but will not be eliminated. It is easier, of course, to be wise in hindsight and regulating unreasonably risky decisions and unethical or outright criminal behavior in the financial world remains major challenges for governments, corporations, and professions alike.

Keywords: financial crisis, legislation, regulation, financial regulation

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Authors: Josip Visković, Josip Arnerić, Ante Rozga

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Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modelling time varying volatility are GARCH type models. When financial returns exhibit sudden jumps that are due to structural breaks, standard GARCH models show high volatility persistence, i.e. integrated behaviour of the conditional variance. In such situations models in which the parameters are allowed to change over time are more appropriate. This paper compares different GARCH models in terms of their ability to describe structural changes in returns caused by financial crisis at stock markets of six selected central and east European countries. The empirical analysis demonstrates that Markov regime switching GARCH model resolves the problem of excessive persistence and outperforms uni-regime GARCH models in forecasting volatility when sudden switching occurs in response to financial crisis.

Keywords: central and east European countries, financial crisis, Markov switching GARCH model, transition probabilities

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Authors: Zeynep Karacor, Rahime Hulya Ozturk

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Located in developing countries but with the successful performance in recent years have shown in emerging economies , the labor factor has undoubtedly an important place in Turkish economy. The theorists have emphasized the importance of labor and human capital factors for many years. The importance of human capital is emerging in the process of determining the labor force participation rate. It is relatively easy to employ qualified labor force but employment of unskilled labor is particularly difficult. Another factor affecting the gender differences are employment opportunities in the labor force. In our country, the employment conditions of men and women differ. Factors causing these differentials are inherent job requirements, the social structure of society, women's point of view, working hours, working conditions. Crisis in our country in recent years have significantly affect the labor force participation rates. In particular, women's labor force participation rates have shown a decrease in crisis.In crisis female laborforce leave their job and go their home. It is the sole provider of social perception of men so in crisis period it is considered that woman lost their job. In the first part of this study the current situation in the world of female participation in the labor force in Turkey will examine. In the second part of the study literature will be examined. In the third and last part of the study factors of determinants of female labor force participation rate analysis will done by Granger Causality Analysis.

Keywords: female labour force, employment, labor force, Turkey

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Authors: Sun-Ki Choi

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The U.S. student loan policy was initiated to improve the equality of educational opportunity and help low-income families to provide higher education opportunities for their children. However, with the increase in the average student loan amount, college graduates with student loans experience problems and restrictions in their early-career choices. This study examines the early career labor market choices of college graduates who obtained student loans to finance their higher education. In this study, National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG) data for 2017 and 2019 was used to estimate the effects of student loans on the employment status and current job wages of graduates with student loans. In the analysis, two groups of workers, those with student loans and those without loans, were compared. Using basic models and Mahalanobis distance matching, it was found that graduates who rely on student loans to finance their education are more likely to participate in the labor market than those who do not. Moreover, in entry-level jobs, graduates with student loans receive lower salaries than those without student loans. College graduates make job-related decisions based on their current and future wages and fringe benefits. Graduates with student loans tend to demonstrate risk-averse behaviors due to their financial restrictions. Thus, student loan debt creates inequity in the early-career labor market for college graduates. Furthermore, this study has implications for policymakers and researchers in terms of the student loan policy.

Keywords: student loan, wage differential, unintended consequences, mahalanobis distance matching

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Authors: Amber Brittain-Hale

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This research investigates the evolving role of social media in crisis situations by employing discourse analysis methodology and honing in on the Russo-Ukrainian War, particularly Ukraine's use of LinkedIn. The study posits that social media platforms, such as LinkedIn, play a crucial role in shaping communication, disseminating information, and influencing geopolitical strategies during conflicts. Focusing on Ukraine's official state account on LinkedIn and analyzing its posts and interactions, the research aims to unveil discourse dynamics in high-stakes scenarios and provide valuable insights for leaders navigating complex global challenges. A comprehensive analysis of the data will contribute to a deeper understanding of the tactics adopted by political leaders in managing communication, the bidirectional nature of discourse provided by online social networks, and the rapid advancement of technology that has led to the growing significance of social media platforms in crisis situations. Through this approach, the geopolitical factors that influenced the country's social media strategy during the Russo-Ukrainian War will be illuminated, offering a broader perspective on the role of social media in such challenging times. Ultimately, the study seeks to uncover lessons that can be drawn from Ukraine's LinkedIn approach, informing future strategies for utilizing social media during crises and advancing the understanding of how social media can be harnessed to address intricate global issues.

Keywords: russo-ukrainian war, social media, crisis, discourse analysis

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Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Samia Yousaf

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The main purpose of this study is to evaluate and assess the financial position, operating performance, and recent outlook of the companies. This study investigates the impact of capital structure, dividend policy and sustainability on the value of firms of textile spinning sector of Pakistan which is listed on Pakistan stock exchange. The panel data technique has been applied to this group of textile sector which is textile spinning. This study covers the last ten years of time period. All the data related to the variables have been collected from the annual reports and financial statements of the textile sector firms. There are differently related determinants to measure the capital structure which are fixed assets turnover ratio, debt ratio, equity ratio, debt to equity ratio, assets tangibility, and shareholder’s equity. Dividend policy is being measured by two determinants which are earning per share (EPS) and dividend payout ratio. Sustainability is being measured by three suitable factors which are sales growth, gross profit margin ratio and firm size. These are three independent variables and their determinants of this study. Value of firm is measured through the return on asset (ROA). Capital structure is at the top of the list among all the three variables. According to the results of this research work, somewhere all the three variables generates positive and significant effect on the firm’s performance and its growth.

Keywords: capital structure, dividend policy, panel data, sustainability

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Authors: Abdur Raheem, Ado Yakub

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Urban violence in the form of ethnic and religious conflicts have been on the increase in many African cities in the recent years of which most of them are the result of intense and bitter competition for political power, the control of limited economic, social and environmental resources. In Nigeria, the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency in most parts of the north eastern parts have ignited violence, bloodshed, refuge exodus and internal migration. Not only do the persistent attacks of the sect create widespread insecurity and fear, it has also stifled normal processes of trade and investments most especially real property investment which is acclaimed to accelerate the economic cycle, thus the need to evolve strategies for an improved property market in such areas. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of these social crisis on effective and efficient utilization of real properties as a resource towards the development of the economy, using a descriptive analysis approach where particular emphasis was based on trends in residential housing values; volume of estimated property transactions and real estate investment decisions by affected individuals. Findings indicate that social crisis in the affected areas have been a clog on the wheels of property development and investment as properties worth hundreds of millions have been destroyed thereby having great impact on property values. Based on these findings, recommendations were made to include the need to strategically continue investing in property during such times, the need for Nigerian government to establish an active conflict monitoring and management unit for prompt response, encourage community and neighbourhood policing to ameliorate security challenges in Nigeria.

Keywords: social crisis, property market, economy, resources, north-eastern Nigeria

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Eliane Abdo, Olivier Colot

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SMEs are always considered as a national priority due to their contribution to job creation, innovation and growth. Once the start-up phase is crossed with encouraging results, the company enters the phase of growth. In order to improve its competitiveness, maintain and increase its market share, the company is in the necessity even the obligation to develop its tangible and intangible investments. SMEs are generally closed companies with special and critical financial situation, limited resources and difficulty to access the capital markets; their shareholders are always living in a conflict between their independence and their need to increase capital that leads to the entry of new shareholder. The capital structure was always considered the core of research in corporate finance; moreover, the financial crisis and its repercussions on the credit’s availability, especially for SMEs make SME financing a hot topic. On the other hand, financial theories do not provide answers to capital structure’s questions; they offer tools and mode of financing that are more accessible to larger companies. Yet, SME’s capital structure can’t be independent of their governance structure. The classic financial theory supposes independence between the investment decision and the financing decision. Thus, investment determines the volume of funding, but not the split between internal or external funds. In this context, we find interesting to study the hypothesis that SMEs respond positively to the financial theories applied to large firms and to check if they are constrained by conventional solutions used by large companies. In this context, this research focuses on the analysis of the resource’s structure of SME in parallel with their investments’ structure, in order to highlight a link between their assets and liabilities structure. We founded our conceptual model based on two main theoretical frameworks: the Pecking order theory, and the Trade Off theory taking into consideration the SME’s characteristics. Our data were generated from DIANE database. Five hypotheses were tested via a panel regression to understand the type of dependence between the financing methods of 3,244 French SMEs and the development of their investment over a period of 10 years (2007-2016). The results show dependence between equity and internal financing in case of intangible investments development. Moreover, this type of business is constraint to financial debts since the guarantees provided are not sufficient to meet the banks' requirements. However, for tangible investments development, SMEs count sequentially on internal financing, bank borrowing, and new shares issuance or hybrid financing. This is compliant to the Pecking Order Theory. We, therefore, conclude that unlisted SMEs incur more financial debts to finance their tangible investments more than their intangible. However, they always prefer internal financing as a first choice. This seems to be confirmed by the assumption that the profitability of the company is negatively related to the increase of the financial debt. Thus, the Pecking Order Theory predictions seem to be the most plausible. Consequently, SMEs primarily rely on self-financing and then go, into debt as a priority to finance their financial deficit.

Keywords: capital structure, investments, life cycle, pecking order theory, trade off theory

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Authors: Marine Kobalava

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The article analyzes current global crises in the world, explains the causes of crises, substantiates that in the main cases the process accompanying the crisis are conflict situations. The paper argues that crises can become predictable if threats are identified and addressed by a company, organization, corporation, and others. Accordingly, mechanisms for the neutralization of conflict potential are proposed, the need to develop a communication strategy and create and redistribute information flows is justified. Conflict situations are assessed according to the types of crisis and it is considered that the conflict can become a prerequisite for the crisis. The paper substantiates the need to differentiate theories of crises and conflicts. Based on the evaluative judgment, conflict management measures are proposed taking into account institutionalization, conflict resolution norms and rules. The paper identifies the potential for conflicts created in the context of global crises and suggests local ways and mechanisms for their effective management. The involvement of the company's Public relations (PR) and relevant communication from the qualified staff is considered important. Conclusions are drawn on the problems of effective conflict management caused by global crises and recommendations for conflict resolution have been proposed.

Keywords: global crises, conflict situations, conflict identification, conflict management, conflict potential

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Authors: Wasfi Al Salamat, Shaker Al-Kharouf

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This study aims to examine the determinants of financial stability for 13 commercial banks listed on the Amman stock exchange (ASE) over the period (2007-2016) after controlling for the independent variables: return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), earnings per share (EPS), growth in gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate and debt ratio to measure the financial stability by three main variables: capital adequacy, non-performing loans and the number of returned checks. The balanced panel data statistical approach has been used for data analysis. Results are estimated by using multiple regression models. The empirical results suggested that there is statistically significant negative effect of inflation rate and debt ratio on the capital adequacy while there is statistically significant positive effect of growth in gross domestic product on capital adequacy. In contrast, there is statistically significant negative effect of return on equity and growth in gross domestic product on the non-performing loans while there is statistically significant positive effect of inflation rate on non-performing loans. Finally, there is statistically significant negative effect of growth in gross domestic product on the number of returned checks while there is statistically significant positive effect of inflation rate on the number of returned checks.

Keywords: capital adequacy, financial stability, non-performing loans, number of returned checks, ASE

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Authors: Hamideh S. Shahidi

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This research examines destination image and its impact on tourist revisit intention. Destination images can evolve over time, depending on a number of factors. Due to the multidimensional nature of destination image, the full extent of what might influence that change is not yet fully understood. As a result, the destination image should be measured with a heavy consideration of the variables used. Depending on the time and circumstances, these variables should be adjusted based on the research’s objectives. The aim of this research is to evaluate the image of destinations that may be perceived as risky, such as Iran, from the perspective of European cultural travellers. Further to the goal of understanding the effects of an image on tourists’ decision-making, the research will assess the impact of destination image on the revisit intention using push and pull factors and perceived risks with the potential moderating effect of cultural contact (the direct interaction between the host and the tourists with different culture). In addition, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance on revisit intention after Iran’s crisis in 2022 will be measured. Furthermore, the level of uncertainty avoidance between gender and age will be compared.

Keywords: destination image, Iran’s 2022 crisis, revisit intention, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: Pascal Horni, Sandro Fuchs

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In presence of increasing deficits and public debt among OECD countries, the debate on fiscal disciple and mechanisms to constrain public spending policy heated up and gave rise to the institutionalization of fiscal rules. Considering the notions from political economy literature and the therein advocated axiom of maximization of votes, introduction of institutional mechanisms and rules to govern public spending is likely to be coined by electoral motives. While there exists a series of research concerned with the rise of creative accounting in the presence fiscal rules, implementation of accrual government accounting and its impact on the biting of fiscal rules has to authors’ best knowledge never been explored. This paper serves the illumination of the connection between debt break mechanisms and the adoption of accrual public sector accounting standards such as the IPSAS in the interface of political economy in the Swiss context. By explicitly considering the technical accounting dimension, this paper develops an integrated conceptual view on well-established Public Financial Management (PFM) institutions and elaborates how their interdependencies can co-create value with regard to the contemporary challenge of fiscal sustainability. Derivation of this integrated view follows an explorative approach, taking into account expert interviews with director level staff from cantonal finance administrations and policy documents, as well as literature from both research areas – public sector accounting and political economy.

Keywords: accounting, fiscal rules, International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS), public financial management

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