Search results for: accident fatality rate

Authors: Zahid Ahmad, Nosheen Imran, Nauman Ali, Farah Amir

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The objective of the study is to forecast the US Dollar and Pak Rupee exchange rate by using time series models. For this purpose, daily exchange rates of US and Pakistan for the period of January 01, 2007 - June 2, 2017, are employed. The data set is divided into in sample and out of sample data set where in-sample data are used to estimate as well as forecast the models, whereas out-of-sample data set is exercised to forecast the exchange rate. The ADF test and PP test are used to make the time series stationary. To forecast the exchange rate ARIMA model and GARCH model are applied. Among the different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models best model is selected on the basis of selection criteria. Due to the volatility clustering and ARCH effect the GARCH (1, 1) is also applied. Results of analysis showed that ARIMA (0, 1, 1 ) and GARCH (1, 1) are the most suitable models to forecast the future exchange rate. Further the GARCH (1,1) model provided the volatility with non-constant conditional variance in the exchange rate with good forecasting performance. This study is very useful for researchers, policymakers, and businesses for making decisions through accurate and timely forecasting of the exchange rate and helps them in devising their policies.

Keywords: exchange rate, ARIMA, GARCH, PAK/USD

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Authors: Ayuko Itsuki, Sachiyo Aburatani

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We assessed the ecology of the organic and mineral soil layers of laurel-leaved (BB-1) and Cryptomeria japonica (BB-2 and Pw) forests in the Kasugayama Hill Primeval Forest (Nara, Japan). The soil respiration rate was higher in the deeper horizons (F and H) of organic layers than in those of mineral soil layers, suggesting organic layers may be where active microbial metabolism occurs. Respiration rates in the soil of BB-1, BB-2 and Pw forests were closely similar at 5 and 10°C. However, the soil respiration rate increased in proportion to temperatures of 15°C or above. We therefore consider the activity of soil microorganisms to markedly decrease at temperatures below 10°C. At a temperature of 15°C or above, the soil respiration rate in the BB-1 organic layers was higher than in those of the BB-2 and Pw organic layers, due to differences in forest vegetation that appeared to influence several salient soil properties, particularly pH and the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) content of the F and H horizons.

Keywords: forest soil, mineralization rate, heterotroph, soil respiration rate

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Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

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This study aims to establish a concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in the Islamic Financial Market (Banking and Capital Markets). A rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the profit sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors, including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets value that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in the Islamic Bond Market in the Capital Market.

Keywords: economic justice, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth, rate of profit, stability in the financial system

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Authors: S. M. Abdullah Al Mamun

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Human Computer Interaction (HCI) is an excellent area for the researchers to make daily life more simple and fast. Necessary hardware equipments for any BCI are generally expensive and not affordable for most of the people. Emotiv is one of the solutions for this problem, which can provide electroencephalograph (EEG) signal and explain the brain activities. BCI virtual speller was one of the important applications for the people who have lost their hand or speaking ability because of diseases or unexpected accident. In this paper, a matrix speller has been designed for the first time for Bengali speaking people around the world. Bengali is one of the most commonly spoken languages. Among them, a lot of disabled person will be able to express their desire in their mother tongue. This application is also usable for the social networks and daily life communications. For this virtual keyboard, the well-known matrix speller method with column flashing is applied and controlled by single Emokey only. Emokey is a great feature which translates emotional state for application inputs. In this paper, it is presented that the ITR (Information Transfer Rate) were 29.4 bits/min and typing speed achieved up to 7.43 char/per min.

Keywords: brain computer interface, Emotiv EPOC, EEG, virtual keyboard, matrix speller

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Authors: P. B. Sob, T. B. Tengen, A. A. Alugongo

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Mechanical behavior of 6082T6 aluminum is investigated at different temperatures. The strain rate sensitivity is investigated at different temperatures on the grain size variants. The sensitivity of the measured grain size variants on 3-D grain is discussed. It is shown that the strain rate sensitivities are negative for the grain size variants during the deformation of nanostructured materials. It is also observed that the strain rate sensitivities vary in different ways with the equivalent radius, semi minor axis radius, semi major axis radius and major axis radius. From the obtained results, it is shown that the variation of strain rate sensitivity with temperature suggests that the strain rate sensitivity at the low and the high temperature ends of the 6082T6 aluminum range is different. The obtained results revealed transition at different temperature from negative strain rate sensitivity as temperature increased on the grain size variants.

Keywords: nanostructured materials, grain size variants, temperature, yield stress, strain rate sensitivity

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Authors: Mahdieh Zamzamzadeh, Ahmad Abdullah Saifizul, Rahizar Ramli

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The road accidents involving heavy vehicles have been showing worrying trends and, year after year, have increased the concern and awareness levels on safety of roads and transportations especially in developing countries like Malaysia. Statistics of road crashes continue to show that there are many contributing factors on the capability of a heavy vehicle to stop on safe distance and ultimately prevent traffic crashes. However, changes in the road condition due to weather variations and the vehicle dynamic specifications such as loading conditions and speed are the main risk factors because they will affect a heavy vehicle’s braking performance due to losing control and not being able to stop the vehicle, and in many cases will cause wheel lock up and accordingly skidding. Predicting heavy vehicle skidding distance is crucial for accident reconstruction and roadside safety engineers. Despite this, formal tools to study heavy vehicle skidding distance before stopping completely are totally limited, and most researchers have only considered braking distance in their studies. As a possible new tool, this work presents the iterative use of vehicle dynamic simulations to study heavy vehicle-roadway interaction in order to predict wheel lock up effects on skidding distance and safety. This research addresses the influence of the vehicle and road conditions on skidding distance after wheel lock up and presents a precise analysis of skidding phenomenon. The vehicle speed, vehicle loading condition and road friction parameters were all varied in a simulation-based analysis. In order to simulate the wheel lock up situation, a heavy vehicle model was constructed and simulated using multibody vehicle dynamics simulation software, and careful analysis was made on the conditions which caused the skidding distance to increase or decrease through a method using to predict skidding distance as part of braking distance. By applying many simulations, the results were quite revealing relation between the heavy vehicles loading condition, various sets of speed and road coefficient of friction and their interaction effect on the skidding distance. A number of results are presented which illustrate how the heavy vehicle overloading can seriously affect the skidding distance. Moreover, the results of simulation give the skid mark length, which is a necessary input data during accident reconstruction involving emergency braking.

Keywords: accident reconstruction, Braking, heavy vehicle, skidding distance, skid mark, wheel lock up

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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The study identifies the impact of inflation and foreign exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Inflation and exchange rates are used as independent variables and foreign direct investment is taken as dependent variable. Discreet time series data has been used from the period of 1999 to 2009. The results of regression analysis reveal that high inflation has negative impact on foreign direct investment and higher exchange rates has positive impact on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The inflation and foreign exchange rates both are insignificant in the analysis.

Keywords: inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment, foreign assets

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Authors: Abdelli Soulaima, Belhadj Besma

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The paper examines the choice of the central bank toward the movements of the nominal exchange rate and evaluates its effects on the volatility of the output growth and the inflation. The novel hybrid method of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium called the DSGE-VAR is proposed for analyzing this policy experiment in a small scale open economy in particular Tunisia. The contribution is provided to the empirical literature as we apply the Tunisian data with this model, which is rarely used in this context. Note additionally that the issue of treating the degree of response of the central bank to the exchange rate in Tunisia is special. To ameliorate the estimation, the Bayesian technique is carried out for the sample 1980:q1 to 2011 q4. Our results reveal that the central bank should not react or softly react to the exchange rate. The variance decomposition displayed that the overall inflation volatility is more pronounced with the fixed exchange rate regime for most of the shocks except for the productivity and the interest rate. The output volatility is also higher with this regime with the majority of the shocks exempting the foreign interest rate and the interest rate shocks.

Keywords: DSGE-VAR modeling, exchange rate, monetary policy, Bayesian estimation

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Authors: Yamba Dabone, Tounwendyam Frédéric Ouedraogo, Pengwendé Justin Kouraogo, Oumarou Sie

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Reliable data transport over the Internet is one of the goals of researchers in the field of computer science. Data such as videos and audio files are becoming increasingly large. As a result, transporting them over the Internet is becoming difficult. Therefore, it has been important to establish a method to locally interconnect autonomous systems (AS) with each other to facilitate traffic exchange. It is in this context that Internet Exchange Points (IXPs) are set up to facilitate local and even regional traffic. They are now the lifeblood of the Internet. Therefore, it is important to think about the factors that can characterize IXPs. However, other more quantifiable characteristics can help determine the quality of an IXP. In addition, these characteristics may allow ISPs to have a clearer view of the exchange node and may also convince other networks to connect to an IXP. To that end, we define five new IXP characteristics: the attraction rate (τₐₜₜᵣ); and the peering rate (τₚₑₑᵣ); the target rate of an IXP (Objₐₜₜ); the number of IXP links (Nₗᵢₙₖ); the resistance rate τₑ𝒻𝒻 and the attraction failure rate (τ𝒻).

Keywords: characteristic, autonomous system, internet service provider, internet exchange point, rate

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Authors: Manjunath Attibele, Alsawafi Manal, Al Dughaishi Tamima

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Introduction: The purpose of this study was to describe the clinical characteristics and types of mechanisms of injuries caused by Motor vehicle accidents (MVA) during pregnancy. To analyze the patterns of accidents during pregnancy and its adverse consequences on both maternal and fetal outcome. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study on pregnant patients who met with MVAs The study period was from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019. All relevant data were retrieved from electronic patients’ records from the hospital information system and from the antenatal ward admission register Results: Out of 168 women who had motor vehicle accidents during the study period, of which, 39 (23.2%) women during pregnancy. Twenty-one (53.8%) women were over 30 years old. Thirty-five (89.7%) women were Omanis, and 27 (69.2%) were in their third trimester. Twenty-three (59%) of accidents happened at night, and 31 (79.5%) of them happened on a weekday. Twenty-two (56.4%) of women were driving themselves, and 24 (61.5%) of them were not using any seatbelt. Accident related abdominal & back pain was seen in 23(59%) women. Regarding the outcome of pregnancy, 23 (74.2%) had a normal vaginal delivery. The mean accident to delivery interval was 7 weeks. Thirty (96.7%) of involved newborns were relatively healthy. One woman (3.2%) had a ruptured uterusleading to fetal death (3.2%). Conclusion: This study showed that the incidence of motor vehicle accidents during pregnancy is around 23.2% . Majority had trauma-associated pain. One serious injury to a woman causing a ruptured uterus which lead to fetal death. Majority of involved newborns were relatively healthy. No reported maternal death.

Keywords: motor vehicle accidents, pregnancy, maternal outcome, fetal outcome

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Authors: Oloyede John Adebayo

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This paper tested a variant of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, called Frankel’s Capital Account Monetary Model (CAAM) based on Real Interest Rate Differential, on the floating exchange rate experiences of three developing countries of Africa; viz: Ghana, Nigeria and the Gambia. The study adopted the Auto regressive Instrumental Package (AIV) and Almon Polynomial Lag Procedure of regression analysis based on the assumption that the coefficients follow a third-order Polynomial with zero-end constraint. The results found some support for the CAAM hypothesis that exchange rate responds proportionately to changes in money supply, inversely to income and positively to interest rates and expected inflation differentials. On this basis, the study points the attention of monetary authorities and researchers to the relevance and usefulness of CAAM as appropriate tool and useful benchmark for analyzing the exchange rate behaviour of most developing countries.

Keywords: exchange rate, monetary model, interest differentials, capital account

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Seung-Jun Yu, Young-Min Ko, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Recently developed cooperative diversity scheme enables a terminal to get transmit diversity through the support of other terminals. However, most of the introduced cooperative schemes have a common fault of decreased transmission rate because the destination should receive the decodable compositions of symbols from the source and the relay. In order to achieve high data rate, we propose a cooperative scheme that employs hierarchical modulation. This scheme is free from the rate loss and allows seamless cooperative communication.

Keywords: cooperative communication, hierarchical modulation, high data rate, transmission scheme

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Authors: Kai Way Li, Lang Gan

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Slip &Fall are common in Taiwan. They could result in injuries and even fatalities. Official statistics indicate that more than 15% of all occupational incidences were slip/fall related. All the workers in Taiwan are required by the law to join the worker’s insurance program administered by the Bureau of Labor Insurance (BLI). The BLI is a government agency under the supervision of the Ministry of Labor. Workers claim with the BLI for insurance compensations when they suffer fatalities or injuries at work. Injuries statistics based on worker’s compensation claims were rarely studied. The objective of this study was to quantify the injury statistics and financial cost due to slip-fall incidences based on the BLI compensation records. Compensation records in the BLI during 2007 to 2013 were retrieved. All the original application forms, approval opinions, results for worker’s compensations were in hardcopy and were stored in the BLI warehouses. Xerox copies of the claims, excluding the personal information of the applicants (or the victim if passed away), were obtained. The content in the filing forms were coded in an Excel worksheet for further analyses. Descriptive statistics were performed to analyze the data. There were a total of 35,024 claims including 82 deaths, 878 disabilities, and 34,064 injuries/illnesses which were slip/fall related. It was found that the average losses for the death cases were 40 months. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was 86,913,195 NTD. For the disability cases, the average losses were 367.36 days. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was almost 2.6 times of those for the death cases (233,324,004 NTD). For the injury/illness cases, the average losses for the illness cases were 58.78 days. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was approximately 13 times of those of the death cases (1134,850,821 NTD). For the applicants/victims, 52.3% were males. There were more males than females for the deaths, disability, and injury/illness cases. Most (57.8%) of the female victims were between 45 to 59 years old. Most of the male victims (62.6%) were, on the other hand, between 25 to 39 years old. Most of the victims were in manufacturing industry (26.41%), next the construction industry (22.20%), and next the retail industry (13.69%). For the fatality cases, head injury was the main problem for immediate or eventual death (74.4%). For the disability case, foot (17.46%) and knee (9.05%) injuries were the leading problems. The compensation claims other than fatality and disability were mainly associated with injuries of the foot (18%), hand (12.87%), knee (10.42%), back (8.83%), and shoulder (6.77%). The slip/fall cases studied indicate that the ratios among the death, disability, and injury/illness counts were 1:10:415. The ratios of dollar amount paid by the BLI for the three categories were 1:2.6:13. Such results indicate the significance of slip-fall incidences resulting in different severity. Such information should be incorporated in to slip-fall prevention program in industry.

Keywords: epidemiology, slip and fall, social burden, workers’ compensation

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin

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Using the slaughterhouse waste combined to suitable dose of nitrogen fertilizer to Apium glaviolen gives the significant effect to mean relative growth rate. The same pattern also showed significantly in net assimilation rate. The net assimilation rate increased significantly during 42 days old plants. Combination of treatment of 100 ml/l animal slaughterhouse waste and 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer/kg soil increased the vegetative growth of Apium glaviolens. The biomass of plant and mean relative growth rate of Apium glaviolens were rapidly increased in 4 weeks after planting and gradually decreased after 35 days at the harvest time. Combination of 100 ml/l slaughterhouse waste and applied 0.1 g/kg nitrogen fertilizer has increased all parameters. The highest vegetative growth, biomass, mean relative growth rate and net assimilation rate were received from 0.56 mg-l.m-2.days-1.

Keywords: Apium glaviolent, nitrogen, pollutant, slaughterhouse, waste

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Authors: Shao-Huang Wu, Ai-Yun Wu, Meng-Chen Wu, Chun-Liang Wu, Kai-Ping Shaw, Hsiao-Ting Chen

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Objective: To analyze the forensic autopsy data of known passengers and compare it with the National database of the autopsy report in 2017, and obtain the special patterned injuries, which can be used as the reference for the reconstruction of hit-and-run motor vehicle accidents. Methods: Analyze the items of the Motor Vehicle Accident Report, including Date of accident, Time occurred, Day, Acc. severity, Acc. Location, Acc. Class, Collision with Vehicle, Motorcyclists Codes, Safety equipment use, etc. Analyzed the items of the Autopsy Report included, including General Description, Clothing and Valuables, External Examination, Head and Neck Trauma, Trunk Trauma, Other Injuries, Internal Examination, Associated Items, Autopsy Determinations, etc. Materials: Case 1. The process of injury formation: the car was chased forward and collided with the scooter. The passenger wearing the helmet fell to the ground. The helmet crashed under the bottom of the sedan, and the bottom of the sedan was raised. Additionally, the sedan was hit on the left by the other sedan behind, resulting in the front sedan turning 180 degrees on the spot. The passenger’s head was rotated, and the cervical spine was fractured. Injuries: 1. Fracture of atlantoaxial joint 2. Fracture of the left clavicle, scapula, and proximal humerus 3. Fracture of the 1-10 left ribs and 2-7 right ribs with lung contusion and hemothorax 4. Fracture of the transverse process of 2-5 lumbar vertebras 5. Comminuted fracture of the right femur 6. Suspected subarachnoid space and subdural hemorrhage 7. Laceration of the spleen. Case 2. The process of injury formation: The motorcyclist wearing the helmet fell to the left by himself, and his chest was crushed by the car going straight. Only his upper body was under the car and the helmet finally fell off. Injuries: 1. Dislocation of atlantoaxial joint 2. Laceration on the left posterior occipital 3. Laceration on the left frontal 4. Laceration on the left side of the chin 5. Strip bruising on the anterior neck 6. Open rib fracture of the right chest wall 7. Comminuted fracture of both 1-12 ribs 8. Fracture of the sternum 9. Rupture of the left lung 10. Rupture of the left and right atria, heart tip and several large vessels 11. The aortic root is nearly transected 12. Severe rupture of the liver. Results: The common features of the two cases were the fracture or dislocation of the atlantoaxial joint and both helmets that were crashed. There were no atlantoaxial fractures or dislocations in 27 pedestrians (without wearing a helmet) versus motor vehicle accidents in 2017 the National database of an autopsy report, but there were two atlantoaxial fracture or dislocation cases in the database, both of which were cases of falling from height. Conclusion: The cervical spine fracture injury of the motorcyclist, who was wearing a helmet, is very likely to be a patterned injury caused by his/her fall and rollover under the sedan. It could provide a reference for forensic peers.

Keywords: patterned injuries, atlantoaxial fracture or dislocation, accident reconstruction, motorcycle accident with helmet, forensic autopsy data

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Satendra Pal Singh, Dalip Kr. Kakru, Jyoti Mishra, Rajesh Thakur, Tarana Sarwat

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COVID-19 is still an intrigue as far as morbidity or mortality is concerned. The rate of recovery varies from person to person, & it depends upon the accessibility of the healthcare system and the roles played by the physicians and caregivers. It is envisaged that with the passage of time, people would become immune to this virus, and those who are vulnerable would sustain themselves with the help of vaccines. The proposed study deals with the severeness of COVID-19 is associated with some specific biomarkers linked to correlate age and gender. We will be assessing the overall homeostasis of the persons who were affected by the coronavirus infection and also of those who recovered from it. Some people show more severe effects, while others show very mild symptoms, however, they show low CT values. Thus far, it is unclear why the new strain of Covid has different effects on different people in terms of age, gender, and ABO blood typing. According to data, the fatality rate with heart disease was 10.5 percent, 7.3 percent were diabetic, and 6 percent who are already infected from other comorbidities. However, some COVID-19 cases are worse than others & it is not fully explainable as of date. Overall data show that the ABO blood group is effective or prone to the risk of SARS-COV2 infection, while another study also shows the phenotypic effects of the blood group related to covid. It is an accepted fact that females have more strong immune systems than males, which may be related to the fact that females have two ‘X’ chromosomes, which might contain a more effective immunity booster gene on the X chromosome, and are capable to protect the female. Also specific sex hormones also induce a better immune response in a specific gender. This calls for in-depth analysis to be able to gain insight into this dilemma. COVID-19 is still not fully characterized, and thus we are not very familiar with its biology, mode of infection, susceptibility, and overall viral load in the human body. How many virus particles are needed to infect a person? How, then, comorbidity contribute to coronavirus infection? Since the emergence of this virus in 2020, a large number of papers have been published, and seemingly, vaccines have been prepared. But still, a large number of questions remain unanswered. The proneness of humans for infection by covid-19 needs to be established to be able to develop a better strategy to fight this virus. Our study will be on the Impact of demography on the Severity of covid-19 infection & at the same time, will look into gender-specific sensitivity of Covid-19 and the Operational variation of different biochemical markers in Covid-19 positive patients. Besides, we will be studying the co-relation, if any, of COVID severity & ABO Blood group type and the occurrence of the most common blood group type amongst positive patience.

Keywords: coronavirus, ABO blood group, age, gender

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Authors: Zhiyuan Tang, Ju Zhang, Wenyuan Wu

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In this research, a car-following model with consideration of the status of the brake light is proposed. The numerical results show that the stability of the traffic flow is improved. The ability of the brake light to reduce car accident is also showed.

Keywords: brake light, car-following model, traffic flow, regional planning, transportation

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Authors: Mohd Asrul Affendi Bi Abdullah, Nyi Nyi Naing

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The purpose of this study was to identify comparable manner between negative binomial death rate (NBDR) and zero inflated negative binomial death rate (ZINBDR) with died patients with (HIV + T B+) and (HIV + T B−). HIV and TB is a serious world wide problem in the developing country. Data were analyzed with applying NBDR and ZINBDR to make comparison which a favorable model is better to used. The ZINBDR model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NBDR model. Hence, as a results ZINBDR model is a superior fit to the data than the NBDR model and provides additional information regarding the died mechanisms HIV+TB. The ZINBDR model is shown to be a use tool for analysis death rate according age categorical.

Keywords: zero inflated negative binomial death rate, HIV and TB, AIC and BIC, death rate

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Authors: M. A. Sadeghian, J. Yang, Q. F. Liu

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Steel extended end plate bolted connections are recommended to be widely utilized in special moment-resisting frame subjected to monotonic loading. Improper design of steel beam to column connection can lead to the collapse and fatality of structures. Therefore comprehensive research studies of beam to column connection design should be carried out. Also the performance and effect of corrugated on the strength of beam column end plate connection up to failure under monotonic loading in horizontal direction is presented in this paper. The non-linear elastic–plastic behavior has been considered through a finite element analysis using the multi-purpose software package LUSAS. The effect of vertically and horizontally types of corrugated web was also investigated.

Keywords: corrugated beam, monotonic loading, finite element analysis, end plate connection

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Authors: Sheraz Ahmad Choudhary

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Health plays a vital role in the growth. The study examined the effect of health indicator on the growth of Pakistan. ARDL model is used to check the growth rate which is affected by the health by using the time series date of Pakistan from 1990 to 2017. Health indicator, fertility rate, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate are variables Where the unit root is applied to check the stationarity of the model. consequences find a significant relationship between GDP, foreign direct investment, fertility rate, and life expectancy in the short run, whereas mortality rate effected negatively to economic growth but have significant values. In the long run, foreign direct investment (FDI) and fertility rate(FR) have significantly influenced the GDP. The results show thateconomic growth is positively stimulated by most of the health indicators. The study accomplishes that nations can achieve a high level of economic growth by increasing wellbeing human capital.

Keywords: economic growth, health expenditures, fertility rate, human capital, life expectancy, foreign direct investment, and infant mortality rate

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Authors: Fajana Sola Isaac

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In the last two decades, we have witnessed an increased interest in exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in developing economies and emerging markets. This is perhaps due to the acknowledged significance of the pattern of exchange rate pass-through as a key instrument in monetary policy design, principally in retort to a shock in exchange rate in literature. This paper analyzed Exchange Rate Pass-Through by A Model of Oil Prices and Asymmetric Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Selected African Countries. The study adopted A Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach using yearly data on Algeria, Burundi, Nigeria and South Africa from 1986 to 2022. The paper found asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through in net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries in the short run during the period under review. An ERPT exhibited a complete pass-through in the short run in the case of net oil-importing countries but an incomplete pass-through in the case of the net oil-exporting countries that were examined. An extended result revealed a significant impact of oil price shock on exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the long run only for net oil importing countries. The Wald restriction test also confirms the evidence of asymmetric with the role of oil price acting as an accelerator to exchange rate pass-through to domestic price in the countries examined. The study found the outcome to be very useful for gaining expansive knowledge on the external shock impact on ERPT and could be of critical value for national monetary policy decisions on inflation targeting, especially for countries examined and other developing net oil importers and exporters.

Keywords: pass through, exchange rate, ARDL, monetary policy

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Authors: Kai Chun Yang, Shao-Wen Chen, Jong-Rong Wang, Chunkuan Shih, Jung-Hua Yang, Hsiung-Chih Chen, Wen-Sheng Hsu

Abstract:

In this study, we build RADionuclide Transport, Removal And Dose Estimation/Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP/RADTRAD) model of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant which is based on the Final Safety Evaluation Report (FSAR) and other data of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant. It is used to estimate the radiation dose of the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB), the Low Population Zone (LPZ), and the control room following ‘release from the containment’ case in Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The RADTRAD analysis result shows that the evaluation dose at EAB, LPZ, and the control room are close to the FSAR data, and all of the doses are lower than the regulatory limits. At last, we do a sensitivity analysis and observe that the evaluation doses increase as the intake rate of the control room increases.

Keywords: RADTRAD, radionuclide transport, removal and dose estimation, snap, symbolic nuclear analysis package, boiling water reactor, NPP, kuosheng

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Shahid Hussain Abro, F. Mufadi, A. Boodi

Abstract:

Microstructural study and phase transformation in steels is a basic and important step during the design of structural steel. There are huge efforts and study has been done so far on phase transformations, due to so many steel grades available commercially the phase development in steel has different consequences. In the present work an effort has been made to study the effect of heating rate on microstructural features of cold heading quality steel. The SEM, optical microscopy, and heat treatment techniques have been applied to observe the microstructural features in the experimental steel. It was observed that heating rate has the strong influence on phase transformation of CHQ steel under investigation. Heating rate increases the austenite formation kinetics with respect to holding time, and this austenite has been transformed to martensite upon cooling. Heating rate also plays a vital role on nucleation sites of austenite formation in the experimental steel.

Keywords: CHQ steel, austenite formation, heating rate, nucleation

Procedia PDF Downloads 411

Authors: Muhammed Ordu, Eren Demir, Chris Tofallis

Abstract:

The number of inpatient admissions in the UK has been significantly increasing over the past decade. These increases cause bed occupancy rates to exceed the target level (85%) set by the Department of Health in England. Therefore, hospital service managers are struggling to better manage key resource such as beds. On the other hand, this severe demand pressure might lead to confusion in wards. For example, patients can be admitted to the ward of another inpatient specialty due to lack of resources (i.e., bed). This study aims to develop a simulation-optimization model to reallocate the available number of beds in a mid-sized hospital in the UK. A hospital simulation model was developed to capture the stochastic behaviours of the hospital by taking into account the accident and emergency department, all outpatient and inpatient services, and the interactions between each other. A couple of outputs of the simulation model (e.g., average length of stay and revenue) were generated as inputs to be used in the optimization model. An integer linear programming was developed under a number of constraints (financial, demand, target level of bed occupancy rate and staffing level) with the aims of maximizing number of admitted patients. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by taking into account unexpected increases on inpatient demand over the next 12 months. As a result, the major findings of the approach proposed in this study optimally reallocate the available number of beds for each inpatient speciality and reveal that 74 beds are idle. In addition, the findings of the study indicate that the hospital wards will be able to cope with 14% demand increase at most in the projected year. In conclusion, this paper sheds a new light on how best to reallocate beds in order to cope with current and future demand for healthcare services.

Keywords: bed occupancy rate, bed reallocation, discrete event simulation, inpatient admissions, integer linear programming, projected usage

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: Kshitij Sawke, Pradnyavant Kamble, Shrikant Patil

Abstract:

The study investigates the effect on wear rate of laser clad of cast iron with silicon carbide. Metal components fail their desired use because they wear, which causes them to lose their functionality. The laser has been used as a heating source to create a melt pool over the surface of cast iron, and then a layer of hard silicon carbide is deposited. Various combinations of power and feed rate of laser have experimented. A suitable range of laser processing parameters was identified. Wear resistance and wear rate properties were evaluated and the result showed that the wear resistance of the laser treated samples was exceptional to that of the untreated samples.

Keywords: laser clad, processing parameters, wear rate, wear resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 259

Authors: Raymond K. Dziwornu

Abstract:

Lending rate of agriculture loan has persistently been high and attributed to risk in the sector. This study examined how food inflation and agriculture lending rate react to each other in Ghana using vector autoregressive approach. Quarterly data from 2006 to 2018 was obtained from the Bank of Ghana quarterly bulletin and the Ghana Statistical Service reports. The study found that a positive standard deviation shock to food inflation causes lending rate of agriculture loan to react negatively in the short run, but positively and steadily in the long run. This suggests the need to direct appropriate policy measures to reduce food inflation and consequently, the cost of credit to the agricultural sector for its growth.

Keywords: food inflation, agriculture, lending rate, vector autoregressive, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Xiaodong Gao, Pingchuan Dong, Qichao Gao

Abstract:

There has been lots of published work focused on asphaltene deposited on the smooth pipe under steady conditions, while particle deposition on the blockage wellbores under transient conditions has not been well elucidated. This work attempts to predict the deposition rate of asphaltene particles in blockage tube through CFD simulation. The Euler-Lagrange equation has been applied during the flow of crude oil and asphaltene particles. The net gravitational force, virtual mass, pressure gradient, saffman lift, and drag forces are incorporated in the simulations process. Validation of CFD simulation results is compared to the benchmark experiments from the previous literature. Furthermore, the effect of blockage location, blockage length, and blockage thickness on deposition rate are also analyzed. The simulation results indicate that the maximum deposition rate of asphaltene occurs in the blocked tube section, and the greater the deposition thickness, the greater the deposition rate. Moreover, the deposition amount and maximum deposition rate along the length of the tube have the same trend. Results of this study are in the ability to better understand the deposition of asphaltene particles in production and help achieve to deal with the asphaltene challenges.

Keywords: asphaltene deposition rate, blockage length, blockage thickness, blockage diameter, transient condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 202