Search results for: equity indicators
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2154

Search results for: equity indicators

114 Internal Concept of Integrated Health by Agrarian Society in Malagasy Highlands for the Last Century

Authors: O. R. Razanakoto, L. Temple

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Living in a least developed country, the Malagasy society has a weak capacity to internalize progress, including health concerns. Since the arrival in the fifteenth century of Arabic script, called Sorabe, that was mainly dedicated to the aristocracy, until the colonial era beginning at the end of the nineteenth century and that has popularized the current usual script of the occidental civilization, the upcoming manuscripts that deal with apparent scientific or at least academic issue have been slowly established. So that, the Malagasy communities’ way of life is not well documented yet to allow a precise understanding of the major concerns, reason, and purpose of the existence of the farmers that compose them. A question arises, according to literature, how does Malagasy community that is dominated by agrarian society conceive the conservation of its wellbeing? This study aims to emphasize the scope and the limits of the « One Health » concept or of the Health Integrated Approach (HIA) that evolves at global scale, with regard to the specific context of local Malagasy smallholder farms. It is expected to identify how this society represents linked risks and the mechanisms between human health, animal health, plant health, and ecosystem health within the last 100 years. To do so, the framework to conduct systematic review for agricultural research has been deployed to access available literature. This task has been coupled with the reading of articles that are not indexed by online scientific search engine but that mention part of a history of agriculture and of farmers in Madagascar. This literature review has informed the interactions between human illnesses and those affecting animals and plants (breeded or wild) with any unexpected event (ecological or economic) that has modified the equilibrium of the ecosystem, or that has disturbed the livelihoods of agrarian communities. Besides, drivers that may either accentuate or attenuate the devasting effects of these illnesses and changes were revealed. The study has established that the reasons of human worries are not only physiological. Among the factors that regulate global health, food system and contemporary medicine have helped to the improvement of life expectancy from 55 to 63 years in Madagascar during the last 50 years. However, threats to global health are still occurring. New human or animal illnesses and livestock / plant pathology or enemies may also appear, whereas ancient illnesses that are supposed to have disappeared may be back. This study has highlighted how much important are the risks associated to the impact of unmanaged externalities that weaken community’s life. Many risks, and also solutions, come from abroad and have long term effects even though those happen as punctual event. Thus, a constructivist strategy is suggested to the « One Health » global concept throughout the record of local facts. This approach should facilitate the exploration of methodological pathways and the identification of relevant indicators for research related to HIA.

Keywords: agrarian system, health integrated approach, history, madagascar, resilience, risk

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113 Assessment of Commercial Antimicrobials Incorporated into Gelatin Coatings and Applied to Conventional Heat-Shrinking Material for the Prevention of Blown Pack Spoilage in Vacuum Packaged Beef Cuts

Authors: Andrey A. Tyuftin, Rachael Reid, Paula Bourke, Patrick J. Cullen, Seamus Fanning, Paul Whyte, Declan Bolton , Joe P. Kerry

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One of the primary spoilage issues associated with vacuum-packed beef products is blown pack spoilage (BPS) caused by the psychrophilic spore-forming strain of Clostridium spp. Spores derived from this organism can be activated after heat-shrinking (eg. 90°C for 3 seconds). To date, research into the control of Clostridium spp in beef packaging is limited. Active packaging in the form of antimicrobially-active coatings may be one approach to its control. Antimicrobial compounds may be incorporated into packaging films or coated onto the internal surfaces of packaging films using a carrier matrix. Three naturally-sourced, commercially-available antimicrobials, namely; Auranta FV (AFV) (bitter oranges extract) from Envirotech Innovative Products Ltd, Ireland; Inbac-MDA (IMDA) from Chemital LLC, Spain, mixture of different organic acids and sodium octanoate (SO) from Sigma-Aldrich, UK, were added into gelatin solutions at 2 concentrations: 2.5 and 3.5 times their minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) against Clostridium estertheticum (DSMZ 8809). These gelatin solutions were coated onto the internal polyethylene layer of cold plasma treated, heat-shrinkable laminates conventionally used for meat packaging applications. Atmospheric plasma was used in order to enhance adhesion between packaging films and gelatin coatings. Pouches were formed from these coated packaging materials, and beef cuts which had been inoculated with C. estertheticum were vacuum packaged. Inoculated beef was vacuum packaged without employing active films and this treatment served as the control. All pouches were heat-sealed and then heat-shrunk at 90°C for 3 seconds and incubated at 2°C for 100 days. During this storage period, packs were monitored for the indicators of blown pack spoilage as follows; gas bubbles in drip, loss of vacuum (onset of BPS), blown, the presence of sufficient gas inside the packs to produce pack distension and tightly stretched, “overblown” packs/ packs leaking. Following storage and assessment of indicator date, it was concluded that AFV- and SO-containing packaging inhibited the growth of C. estertheticum, significantly delaying the blown pack spoilage of beef primals. IMDA did not inhibit the growth of C. estertheticum. This may be attributed to differences in release rates and possible reactions with gelatin. Overall, active films were successfully produced following plasma surface treatment, and experimental data demonstrated clearly that the use of antimicrobially-active films could significantly prolong the storage stability of beef primals through the effective control of BPS.

Keywords: active packaging, blown pack spoilage, Clostridium, antimicrobials, edible coatings, food packaging, gelatin films, meat science

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112 The Different Effects of Mindfulness-Based Relapse Prevention Group Therapy on QEEG Measures in Various Severity Substance Use Disorder Involuntary Clients

Authors: Yu-Chi Liao, Nai-Wen Guo, Chun‑Hung Lee, Yung-Chin Lu, Cheng-Hung Ko

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Objective: The incidence of behavioral addictions, especially substance use disorders (SUDs), is gradually be taken seriously with various physical health problems. Mindfulness-based relapse prevention (MBRP) is a treatment option for promoting long-term health behavior change in recent years. MBRP is a structured protocol that integrates formal meditation practices with the cognitive-behavioral approach of relapse prevention treatment by teaching participants not to engage in reappraisal or savoring techniques. However, considering SUDs as a complex brain disease, questionnaires and symptom evaluation are not sufficient to evaluate the effect of MBRP. Neurophysiological biomarkers such as quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) may improve accurately represent the curative effects. This study attempted to find out the neurophysiological indicator of MBRP in various severity SUD involuntary clients. Participants and Methods: Thirteen participants (all males) completed 8-week mindfulness-based treatment provided by trained, licensed clinical psychologists. The behavioral data were from the Severity of Dependence Scale (SDS) and Negative Mood Regulation Scale (NMR) before and afterMBRP treatment. The QEEG data were simultaneously recorded with executive attention tasks, called comprehensive nonverbal attention test(CNAT). The two-way repeated-measures (treatment * severity) ANOVA and independent t-test were used for statistical analysis. Results: Thirteen participants regrouped into high substance dependence (HS) and low substance dependence (LS) by SDS cut-off. The HS group showed more SDS total score and lower gamma wave in the Go/No Go task of CNAT at pretest. Both groups showed the main effect that they had a lower frontal theta/beta ratio (TBR) during the simple reaction time task of CNAT. The main effect showed that the delay errors of CNAT were lower after MBRP. There was no other difference in CNAT between groups. However, after MBRP, compared to LS, the HS group have resonant progress in improving SDS and NMR scores. The neurophysiological index, the frontal TBR of the HS during the Go/No Go task of CNATdecreased than that of the LS group. Otherwise, the LS group’s gamma wave was a significant reduction on the Go/No Go task of CNAT. Conclusion: The QEEG data supports the MBRP can restore the prefrontal function of involuntary addicts and lower their errors in executive attention tasks. However, the improvement of MBRPfor the addict with high addiction severity is significantly more than that with low severity, including QEEG’s indicators and negative emotion regulation. Future directions include investigating the reasons for differences in efficacy among different severity of the addiction.

Keywords: mindfulness, involuntary clients, QEEG, emotion regulation

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111 Analysis of the Effects of Institutions on the Sub-National Distribution of Aid Using Geo-Referenced AidData

Authors: Savas Yildiz

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The article assesses the performance of international aid donors to determine the sub-national distribution of their aid projects dependent on recipient countries’ governance. The present paper extends the scope from a cross-country perspective to a more detailed analysis by looking at the effects of institutional qualities on the sub-national distribution of foreign aid. The analysis examines geo-referenced aid project in 37 countries and 404 regions at the first administrative division level in Sub-Saharan Africa from the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (ADB) that were approved between the years 2000 and 2011. To measure the influence of institutional qualities on the distribution of aid the following measures are used: control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality and rule of law from the World Governance Indicators (WGI) and the corruption perception index from Transparency International. Furthermore, to assess the importance of ethnic heterogeneity on the sub-national distribution of aid projects, the study also includes interaction terms measuring ethnic fragmentation. The regression results indicate a general skew of aid projects towards regions which hold capital cities, however, being incumbent presidents’ birth region does not increase the allocation of aid projects significantly. Nevertheless, with increasing quality of institutions aid projects are less skewed towards capital regions and the previously estimated coefficients loose significance in most cases. Higher ethnic fragmentation also seems to impede the possibility to allocate aid projects mainly in capital city regions and presidents’ birth places. Additionally, to assess the performance of the WB based on its own proclaimed goal to aim the poor in a country, the study also includes sub-national wealth data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DSH), and finds that, even with better institutional qualities, regions with a larger share from the richest quintile receive significantly more aid than regions with a larger share of poor people. With increasing ethnic diversity, the allocation of aid projects towards regions where the richest citizens reside diminishes, but still remains high and significant. However, regions with a larger share of poor people still do not receive significantly more aid. This might imply that the sub-national distribution of aid projects increases in general with higher ethnic fragmentation, independent of the diverse regional needs. The results provide evidence that institutional qualities matter to undermine the influence of incumbent presidents on the allocation of aid projects towards their birth regions and capital regions. Moreover, even for countries with better institutional qualities the WB and the ADB do not seem to be able to aim the poor in a country with their aid projects. Even, if one considers need-based variables, such as infant mortality and child mortality rates, aid projects do not seem to be allocated in districts with a larger share of people in need. Therefore, the study provides further evidence using more detailed information on the sub-national distribution of aid projects that aid is not being allocated effectively towards regions with a larger share of poor people to alleviate poverty in recipient countries directly. Institutions do not have any significant influence on the sub-national distribution of aid towards the poor.

Keywords: aid allocation, georeferenced data, institutions, spatial analysis

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110 User Experience Evaluation on the Usage of Commuter Line Train Ticket Vending Machine

Authors: Faishal Muhammad, Erlinda Muslim, Nadia Faradilla, Sayidul Fikri

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To deal with the increase of mass transportation needs problem, PT. Kereta Commuter Jabodetabek (KCJ) implements Commuter Vending Machine (C-VIM) as the solution. For that background, C-VIM is implemented as a substitute to the conventional ticket windows with the purposes to make transaction process more efficient and to introduce self-service technology to the commuter line user. However, this implementation causing problems and long queues when the user is not accustomed to using the machine. The objective of this research is to evaluate user experience after using the commuter vending machine. The goal is to analyze the existing user experience problem and to achieve a better user experience design. The evaluation method is done by giving task scenario according to the features offered by the machine. The features are daily insured ticket sales, ticket refund, and multi-trip card top up. There 20 peoples that separated into two groups of respondents involved in this research, which consist of 5 males and 5 females each group. The experienced and inexperienced user to prove that there is a significant difference between both groups in the measurement. The user experience is measured by both quantitative and qualitative measurement. The quantitative measurement includes the user performance metrics such as task success, time on task, error, efficiency, and learnability. The qualitative measurement includes system usability scale questionnaire (SUS), questionnaire for user interface satisfaction (QUIS), and retrospective think aloud (RTA). Usability performance metrics shows that 4 out of 5 indicators are significantly different in both group. This shows that the inexperienced group is having a problem when using the C-VIM. Conventional ticket windows also show a better usability performance metrics compared to the C-VIM. From the data processing, the experienced group give the SUS score of 62 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of “D”, and the adjective ratings of 'good' while the inexperienced group gives the SUS score of 51 with the acceptability scale of 'marginal low', grade scale of 'F', and the adjective ratings of 'ok'. This shows that both groups give a low score on the system usability scale. The QUIS score of the experienced group is 69,18 and the inexperienced group is 64,20. This shows the average QUIS score below 70 which indicate a problem with the user interface. RTA was done to obtain user experience issue when using C-VIM through interview protocols. The issue obtained then sorted using pareto concept and diagram. The solution of this research is interface redesign using activity relationship chart. This method resulted in a better interface with an average SUS score of 72,25, with the acceptable scale of 'acceptable', grade scale of 'B', and the adjective ratings of 'excellent'. From the time on task indicator of performance metrics also shows a significant better time by using the new interface design. Result in this study shows that C-VIM not yet have a good performance and user experience.

Keywords: activity relationship chart, commuter line vending machine, system usability scale, usability performance metrics, user experience evaluation

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109 The Intensity of Root and Soil Respiration Is Significantly Determined by the Organic Matter and Moisture Content of the Soil

Authors: Zsolt Kotroczó, Katalin Juhos, Áron Béni, Gábor Várbíró, Tamás Kocsis, István Fekete

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Soil organic matter plays an extremely important role in the functioning and regulation processes of ecosystems. It follows that the C content of organic matter in soil is one of the most important indicators of soil fertility. Part of the carbon stored in them is returned to the atmosphere during soil respiration. Climate change and inappropriate land use can accelerate these processes. Our work aimed to determine how soil CO2 emissions change over ten years as a result of organic matter manipulation treatments. With the help of this, we were able to examine not only the effects of the different organic matter intake but also the effects of the different microclimates that occur as a result of the treatments. We carried out our investigations in the area of the Síkfőkút DIRT (Detritus Input and Removal Treatment) Project. The research area is located in the southern, hilly landscape of the Bükk Mountains, northeast of Eger (Hungary). GPS coordinates of the project: 47°55′34′′ N and 20°26′ 29′′ E, altitude 320-340 m. The soil of the area is Luvisols. The 27-hectare protected forest area is now under the supervision of the Bükki National Park. The experimental plots in Síkfőkút were established in 2000. We established six litter manipulation treatments each with three 7×7 m replicate plots established under complete canopy cover. There were two types of detritus addition treatments (Double Wood and Double Litter). In three treatments, detritus inputs were removed: No Litter No Roots plots, No Inputs, and the Controls. After the establishment of the plots, during the drier periods, the NR and NI treatments showed the highest CO2 emissions. In the first few years, the effect of this process was evident, because due to the lack of living vegetation, the amount of evapotranspiration on the NR and NI plots was much lower, and transpiration practically ceased on these plots. In the wetter periods, the NL and NI treatments showed the lowest soil respiration values, which were significantly lower compared to the Co, DW, and DL treatments. Due to the lower organic matter content and the lack of surface litter cover, the water storage capacity of these soils was significantly limited, therefore we measured the lowest average moisture content among the treatments after ten years. Soil respiration is significantly influenced by temperature values. Furthermore, the supply of nutrients to the soil microorganisms is also a determining factor, which in this case is influenced by the litter production dictated by the treatments. In the case of dry soils with a moisture content of less than 20% in the initial period, litter removal treatments showed a strong correlation with soil moisture (r=0.74). In very dry soils, a smaller increase in moisture does not cause a significant increase in soil respiration, while it does in a slightly higher moisture range. In wet soils, the temperature is the main regulating factor, above a certain moisture limit, water displaces soil air from the soil pores, which inhibits aerobic decomposition processes, and so heterotrophic soil respiration also declines.

Keywords: soil biology, organic matter, nutrition, DIRT, soil respiration

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108 Lake Water Surface Variations and Its Influencing Factors in Tibetan Plateau in Recent 10 Years

Authors: Shanlong Lu, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang

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The Tibetan Plateau has the largest number of inland lakes with the highest elevation on the planet. These massive and large lakes are mostly in natural state and are less affected by human activities. Their shrinking or expansion can truly reflect regional climate and environmental changes and are sensitive indicators of global climate change. However, due to the sparsely populated nature of the plateau and the poor natural conditions, it is difficult to effectively obtain the change data of the lake, which has affected people's understanding of the temporal and spatial processes of lake water changes and their influencing factors. By using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) MOD09Q1 surface reflectance images as basic data, this study produced the 8-day lake water surface data set of the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2012 at 250 m spatial resolution, with a lake water surface extraction method of combined with lake water surface boundary buffer analyzing and lake by lake segmentation threshold determining. Then based on the dataset, the lake water surface variations and their influencing factors were analyzed, by using 4 typical natural geographical zones of Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai, Qiangtang, and Southern Tibet, and the watersheds of the top 10 lakes of Qinghai, Siling Co, Namco, Zhari NamCo, Tangra Yumco, Ngoring, UlanUla, Yamdrok Tso, Har and Gyaring as the analysis units. The accuracy analysis indicate that compared with water surface data of the 134 sample lakes extracted from the 30 m Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper ) images, the average overall accuracy of the lake water surface data set is 91.81% with average commission and omission error of 3.26% and 5.38%; the results also show strong linear (R2=0.9991) correlation with the global MODIS water mask dataset with overall accuracy of 86.30%; and the lake area difference between the Second National Lake Survey and this study is only 4.74%, respectively. This study provides reliable dataset for the lake change research of the plateau in the recent decade. The change trends and influencing factors analysis indicate that the total water surface area of lakes in the plateau showed overall increases, but only lakes with areas larger than 10 km2 had statistically significant increases. Furthermore, lakes with area larger than 100 km2 experienced an abrupt change in 2005. In addition, the annual average precipitation of Southern Tibet and Southern Qinghai experienced significant increasing and decreasing trends, and corresponding abrupt changes in 2004 and 2006, respectively. The annual average temperature of Southern Tibet and Qiangtang showed a significant increasing trend with an abrupt change in 2004. The major reason for the lake water surface variation in Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai and Southern Tibet is the changes of precipitation, and that for Qiangtang is the temperature variations.

Keywords: lake water surface variation, MODIS MOD09Q1, remote sensing, Tibetan Plateau

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107 Theoretical-Methodological Model to Study Vulnerability of Death in the Past from a Bioarchaeological Approach

Authors: Geraldine G. Granados Vazquez

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Every human being is exposed to the risk of dying; wherein some of them are more susceptible than others depending on the cause. Therefore, the cause could be the hazard to die that a group or individual has, making this irreversible damage the condition of vulnerability. Risk is a dynamic concept; which means that it depends on the environmental, social, economic and political conditions. Thus vulnerability may only be evaluated in terms of relative parameters. This research is focusing specifically on building a model that evaluate the risk or propensity of death in past urban societies in connection with the everyday life of individuals, considering that death can be a consequence of two coexisting issues: hazard and the deterioration of the resistance to destruction. One of the most important discussions in bioarchaeology refers to health and life conditions in ancient groups; the researchers are looking for more flexible models that evaluate these topics. In that way, this research proposes a theoretical-methodological model that assess the vulnerability of death in past urban groups. This model pretends to be useful to evaluate the risk of death, considering their sociohistorical context, and their intrinsic biological features. This theoretical and methodological model, propose four areas to assess vulnerability. The first three areas use statistical methods or quantitative analysis. While the last and fourth area, which corresponds to the embodiment, is based on qualitative analysis. The four areas and their techniques proposed are a) Demographic dynamics. From the distribution of age at the time of death, the analysis of mortality will be performed using life tables. From here, four aspects may be inferred: population structure, fertility, mortality-survival, and productivity-migration, b) Frailty. Selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty can be assessed through the relationship between characteristics and the age at death. There are two indicators used in contemporary populations to evaluate stress: height and linear enamel hypoplasias. Height estimates may account for the individual’s nutrition and health history in specific groups; while enamel hypoplasias are an account of the individual’s first years of life, c) Inequality. Space reflects various sectors of society, also in ancient cities. In general terms, the spatial analysis uses measures of association to show the relationship between frail variables and space, d) Embodiment. The story of everyone leaves some evidence on the body, even in the bones. That led us to think about the dynamic individual's relations in terms of time and space; consequently, the micro analysis of persons will assess vulnerability from the everyday life, where the symbolic meaning also plays a major role. In sum, using some Mesoamerica examples, as study cases, this research demonstrates that not only the intrinsic characteristics related to the age and sex of individuals are conducive to vulnerability, but also the social and historical context that determines their state of frailty before death. An attenuating factor for past groups is that some basic aspects –such as the role they played in everyday life– escape our comprehension, and are still under discussion.

Keywords: bioarchaeology, frailty, Mesoamerica, vulnerability

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106 Monitoring the Responses to Nociceptive Stimuli During General Anesthesia Based on Electroencephalographic Signals in Surgical Patients Undergoing General Anesthesia with Laryngeal Mask Airway (LMA)

Authors: Ofelia Loani Elvir Lazo, Roya Yumul, Sevan Komshian, Ruby Wang, Jun Tang

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Background: Monitoring the anti-nociceptive drug effect is useful because a sudden and strong nociceptive stimulus may result in untoward autonomic responses and muscular reflex movements. Monitoring the anti-nociceptive effects of perioperative medications has long been desiredas a way to provide anesthesiologists information regarding a patient’s level of antinociception and preclude any untoward autonomic responses and reflexive muscular movements from painful stimuli intraoperatively.To this end, electroencephalogram (EEG) based tools includingBIS and qCON were designed to provide information about the depth of sedation whileqNOXwas produced to informon the degree of antinociception.The goal of this study was to compare the reliability of qCON/qNOX to BIS asspecific indicators of response to nociceptive stimulation. Methods: Sixty-two patients undergoing general anesthesia with LMA were included in this study. Institutional Review Board(IRB) approval was obtained, and informed consent was acquired prior to patient enrollment. Inclusion criteria included American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) class I-III, 18 to 80 years of age, and either gender. Exclusion criteria included the inability to consent. Withdrawal criteria included conversion to endotracheal tube and EEG malfunction. BIS and qCON/qNOX electrodes were simultaneously placed o62n all patientsprior to induction of anesthesia and were monitored throughout the case, along with other perioperative data, including patient response to noxious stimuli. All intraoperative decisions were made by the primary anesthesiologist without influence from qCON/qNOX. Student’s t-distribution, prediction probability (PK), and ANOVA were used to statistically compare the relative ability to detect nociceptive stimuli for each index. Twenty patients were included for the preliminary analysis. Results: A comparison of overall intraoperative BIS, qCON and qNOX indices demonstrated no significant difference between the three measures (N=62, p> 0.05). Meanwhile, index values for qNOX (62±18) were significantly higher than those for BIS (46±14) and qCON (54±19) immediately preceding patient responses to nociceptive stimulation in a preliminary analysis (N=20, * p= 0.0408). Notably, certain hemodynamic measurements demonstrated a significant increase in response to painful stimuli (MAP increased from74±13 mm Hg at baseline to 84± 18 mm Hg during noxious stimuli [p= 0.032] and HR from 76±12 BPM at baseline to 80±13BPM during noxious stimuli[p=0.078] respectively). Conclusion: In this observational study, BIS and qCON/qNOX provided comparable information on patients’ level of sedation throughout the course of an anesthetic. Meanwhile, increases in qNOX values demonstrated a superior correlation to an imminent response to stimulation relative to all other indices.

Keywords: antinociception, bispectral index (BIS), general anesthesia, laryngeal mask airway, qCON/qNOX

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105 A Comparative Study of the Impact of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) on Trends in the Second Demographic Transition in Rwanda

Authors: Etienne Gatera

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Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)

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104 Concentrations of Leptin, C-Peptide and Insulin in Cord Blood as Fetal Origins of Insulin Resistance and Their Effect on the Birth Weight of the Newborn

Authors: R. P. Hewawasam, M. H. A. D. de Silva, M. A. G. Iresha

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Obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing insulin resistance. Insulin resistance often progresses to type-2 diabetes mellitus and is linked to a wide variety of other pathophysiological features including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atherosclerosis (metabolic syndrome) and polycystic ovarian syndrome. Macrosomia is common in infants born to not only women with gestational diabetes mellitus but also non-diabetic obese women. During the past two decades, obesity in children and adolescents has risen significantly in Asian populations including Sri Lanka. There is increasing evidence to believe that infants who are born large for gestational age (LGA) are more likely to be obese in childhood. It is also established from previous studies that Asian populations have higher percentage body fat at a lower body mass index compared to Caucasians. High leptin levels in cord blood have been reported to correlate with fetal adiposity at birth. Previous studies have also shown that cord blood C-peptide and insulin levels are significantly and positively correlated with birth weight. Therefore, the objective of this preliminary study was to determine the relationship between parameters of fetal insulin resistance such as leptin, C-peptide and insulin and the birth weight of the newborn in a study population in Southern Sri Lanka. Umbilical cord blood was collected from 90 newborns and the concentration of insulin, leptin, and C-peptide were measured by ELISA technique. Birth weight, length, occipital frontal, chest, hip and calf circumferences of newborns were measured and characteristics of the mother such as age, height, weight before pregnancy and weight gain were collected. The relationship between insulin, leptin, C-peptide, and anthropometrics were assessed by Pearson’s correlation while the Mann-Whitney U test was used to assess the differences in cord blood leptin, C-peptide, and insulin levels between groups. A significant difference (p < 0.001) was observed between the insulin levels of infants born LGA (18.73 ± 0.64 µlU/ml) and AGA (13.08 ± 0.43 µlU/ml). Consistently, A significant increase in concentration (p < 0.001) was observed in C-peptide levels of infants born LGA (9.32 ± 0.77 ng/ml) compared to AGA (5.44 ± 0.19 ng/ml). Cord blood leptin concentration of LGA infants (12.67 ng/mL ± 1.62) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) compared to the AGA infants (7.10 ng/mL ± 0.97). Significant positive correlations (p < 0.05) were observed among cord leptin levels and the birth weight, pre-pregnancy maternal weight and BMI between the infants of AGA and LGA. Consistently, a significant positive correlation (p < 0.05) was observed between the birth weight and the C peptide concentration. Significantly high concentrations of leptin, C-peptide and insulin levels in the cord blood of LGA infants suggest that they may be involved in regulating fetal growth. Although previous studies suggest comparatively high levels of body fat in the Asian population, values obtained in this study are not significantly different from values previously reported from Caucasian populations. According to this preliminary study, maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and weight may contribute as significant indicators of cord blood parameters of insulin resistance and possibly the birth weight of the newborn.

Keywords: large for gestational age, leptin, C-peptide, insulin

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103 Implementing Quality Improvement Projects to Enhance Contraception and Abortion Care Service Provision and Pre-Service Training of Health Care Providers

Authors: Munir Kassa, Mengistu Hailemariam, Meghan Obermeyer, Kefelegn Baruda, Yonas Getachew, Asnakech Dessie

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Improving the quality of sexual and reproductive health services that women receive is expected to have an impact on women’s satisfaction with the services, on their continued use and, ultimately, on their ability to achieve their fertility goals or reproductive intentions. Surprisingly, however, there is little empirical evidence of either whether this expectation is correct, or how best to improve service quality within sexual and reproductive health programs so that these impacts can be achieved. The Recent focus on quality has prompted more physicians to do quality improvement work, but often without the needed skill sets, which results in poorly conceived and ultimately unsuccessful improvement initiatives. As this renders the work unpublishable, it further impedes progress in the field of health care improvement and widens the quality chasm. Moreover, since 2014, the Center for International Reproductive Health Training (CIRHT) has worked diligently with 11 teaching hospitals across Ethiopia to increase access to contraception and abortion care services. This work has included improving pre-service training through education and curriculum development, expanding hands-on training to better learn critical techniques and counseling skills, and fostering a “team science” approach to research by encouraging scientific exploration. This is the first time this systematic approach has been applied and documented to improve access to high-quality services in Ethiopia. The purpose of this article is to report initiatives undertaken, and findings concluded by the clinical service team at CIRHT in an effort to provide a pragmatic approach to quality improvement projects. An audit containing nearly 300 questions about several aspects of patient care, including structure, process, and outcome indicators was completed by each teaching hospital’s quality improvement team. This baseline audit assisted in identifying major gaps and barriers, and each team was responsible for determining specific quality improvement aims and tasks to support change interventions using Shewart’s Cycle for Learning and Improvement (the Plan-Do-Study-Act model). To measure progress over time, quality improvement teams met biweekly and compiled monthly data for review. Also, site visits to each hospital were completed by the clinical service team to ensure monitoring and support. The results indicate that applying an evidence-based, participatory approach to quality improvement has the potential to increase the accessibility and quality of services in a short amount of time. In addition, continued ownership and on-site support are vital in promoting sustainability. This approach could be adapted and applied in similar contexts, particularly in other African countries.

Keywords: abortion, contraception, quality improvement, service provision

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102 Impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program on Household Dietary Diversity and Child Nutrition in Rural Ethiopia

Authors: Tagel Gebrehiwot, Carolina Castilla

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Food insecurity and child malnutrition are among the most critical issues in Ethiopia. Accordingly, different reform programs have been carried to improve household food security. The Food Security Program (FSP) (among others) was introduced to combat the persistent food insecurity problem in the country. The FSP combines a safety net component called the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) started in 2005. The goal of PSNP is to offer multi-annual transfers, such as food, cash or a combination of both to chronically food insecure households to break the cycle of food aid. Food or cash transfers are the main elements of PSNP. The case for cash transfers builds on the Sen’s analysis of ‘entitlement to food’, where he argues that restoring access to food by improving demand is a more effective and sustainable response to food insecurity than food aid. Cash-based schemes offer a greater choice of use of the transfer and can allow a greater diversity of food choice. It has been proven that dietary diversity is positively associated with the key pillars of food security. Thus, dietary diversity is considered as a measure of household’s capacity to access a variety of food groups. Studies of dietary diversity among Ethiopian rural households are somewhat rare and there is still a dearth of evidence on the impact of PSNP on household dietary diversity. In this paper, we examine the impact of the Ethiopia’s PSNP on household dietary diversity and child nutrition using panel household surveys. We employed different methodologies for identification. We exploit the exogenous increase in kebeles’ PSNP budget to identify the effect of the change in the amount of money households received in transfers between 2012 and 2014 on the change in dietary diversity. We use three different approaches to identify this effect: two-stage least squares, reduced form IV, and generalized propensity score matching using a continuous treatment. The results indicate the increase in PSNP transfers between 2012 and 2014 had no effect on household dietary diversity. Estimates for different household dietary indicators reveal that the effect of the change in the cash transfer received by the household is statistically and economically insignificant. This finding is robust to different identification strategies and the inclusion of control variables that determine eligibility to become a PSNP beneficiary. To identify the effect of PSNP participation on children height-for-age and stunting we use a difference-in-difference approach. We use children between 2 and 5 in 2012 as a baseline because by then they have achieved long-term failure to grow. The treatment group comprises children ages 2 to 5 in 2014 in PSNP participant households. While changes in height-for-age take time, two years of additional transfers among children who were not born or under the age of 2-3 in 2012 have the potential to make a considerable impact on reducing the prevalence of stunting. The results indicate that participation in PSNP had no effect on child nutrition measured as height-for-age or probability of beings stunted, suggesting that PSNP should be designed in a more nutrition-sensitive way.

Keywords: continuous treatment, dietary diversity, impact, nutrition security

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101 Event-Related Potentials and Behavioral Reactions during Native and Foreign Languages Comprehension in Bilingual Inhabitants of Siberia

Authors: Tatiana N. Astakhova, Alexander E. Saprygin, Tatyana A. Golovko, Alexander N. Savostyanov, Mikhail S. Vlasov, Natalia V. Borisova, Alexandera G. Karpova, Urana N. Kavai-ool, Elena D. Mokur-ool, Nikolay A. Kolchanov, Lubomir I. Aftanas

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The study is dedicated to the research of brain activity in bilingual inhabitants of Siberia. We compared behavioral reactions and event-related potentials in Turkic-speaking inhabitants of Siberia (Tuvinians and Yakuts) and Russians. 63 healthy aboriginals of the Tyva Republic, 29 inhabitants of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, and 55 Russians from Novosibirsk participated in the study. All the healthy and right-handed participants, matched on age and sex, were students of different universities. EEG’s were recorded during the solving of linguistic tasks. In these tasks, participants had to find a syntax error in the written sentences. There were four groups of sentences: Russian, English, Tuvinian, and Yakut. All participants completed the tasks in Russian and English. Additionally, Tuvinians and Yakuts completed the tasks in Tuvinian or Yakut respectively. For Russians, EEG's were recorded using 128-channels according to the extended International 10-10 system, and the signals were amplified using “Neuroscan (USA)” amplifiers. For Tuvinians and Yakuts, EEG's were recorded using 64-channels and amplifiers Brain Products, Germany. In all groups, 0.3-100 Hz analog filtering and sampling rate 1000 Hz were used. As parameters of behavioral reactions, response speed and the accuracy of recognition were used. Event-related potentials (ERP) responses P300 and P600 were used as indicators of brain activity. The behavioral reactions showed that in Russians, the response speed for Russian was faster than for English. Also, the accuracy of solving tasks was higher for Russian than for English. The peak P300 in Russians were higher for English, the peak P600 in the left temporal cortex were higher for the Russian language. Both Tuvinians and Yakuts have no difference in accuracy of solving tasks in Russian and in their respective national languages. However, the response speed was faster for tasks in Russian than for tasks in their national language. Tuvinians and Yakuts showed bad accuracy in English, but the response speed was higher for English than for Russian and the national languages. This can be explained by the fact that they did not think carefully and gave a random answer for English. In Tuvinians, The P300 and P600 amplitudes and cortical topology were the same for Russian and Tuvinian and different for English. In Yakuts, the P300 and P600 amplitudes and topology of ERP for Russian were the same as what Russians had for Russian. In Yakuts, brain reactions during Yakut and English comprehension had no difference, and were reflected to foreign language comprehension - while the Russian language comprehension was reflected to native language comprehension. We found out that the Tuvinians recognized both Russian and Tuvinian as native languages, and English as a foreign language. The Yakuts recognized both English and Yakut as a foreign language, and only Russian as a native language. According to the inquirer, both Tuvinians and Yakuts use the national language as a spoken language, whereas they don’t use it for writing. It can well be a reason that Yakuts perceive the Yakut writing language as a foreign language while writing Russian as their native.

Keywords: EEG, ERP, native and foreign languages comprehension, Siberian inhabitants

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100 Associations Between Pornography Use Motivations and Sexual Satisfaction in Gender Diverse and Cisgender Individuals in the 43-Country International Sex Survey

Authors: Aurélie Michaud, Émilie Gaudet, Mónika Koós, Léna Nagy, Zsolt Demetrovics, Shane W. Kraus, Marc N. Potenza, Beáta Bőthe

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Pornography use is prevalent among adults worldwide. Prior studies have assessed the associations between pornography use frequency and sexual satisfaction, in cisgender and heterosexual individuals, with mixed results. However, measuring pornography use solely by pornography use frequency is problematic, as it can lead to disregarding important contextual factors that may be related to pornography use’s potential effects. Pornography use motivations (PUMs) represent key predictors of sexual behaviors. Yet, their associations with different indicators of sexual wellbeing have yet to be extensively studied. This cross-cultural study examined the links between the eight PUMs most often reported in the general population (i.e. sexual pleasure, sexual curiosity, emotional distraction or suppression, fantasy, stress reduction, boredom avoidance, lack of sexual satisfaction, and self-exploration) and sexual satisfaction in gender diverse and cisgender individuals. Given the lack of scientific data on associations between individuals’ PUMs and sexual satisfaction, these links were examined in an exploratory manner. A total of 43 countries from five continents were included in the International Sex Survey (ISS). A secure online platform was used to collect self-report, anonymous data from 82,243 participants (39.6% men, 57% women, 3.4% gender diverse individuals; M = 32.4 years, SD = 12.5). Gender-based differences in levels of sexual pleasure, sexual curiosity, emotional distraction, fantasy, stress reduction, boredom avoidance, lack of sexual satisfaction, and self-exploration PUMs were examined using one-way ANOVAs. Then, for each gender group, the associations between each PUM and sexual satisfaction were examined using multiple linear regression, controlling for frequency of masturbation. One-way ANOVAs indicated significant differences between men, women, and gender diverse individuals on all PUMs. For sexual pleasure, sexual curiosity, fantasy, boredom avoidance, lack of sexual satisfaction, emotional distraction, and stress reduction PUMs, men showed the highest scores, followed by gender-diverse individuals, and women. However, for self-exploration, gender-diverse individuals had higher average scores than men. For all PUMs, women’s average scores were the lowest. After controlling for frequency of masturbation, for all genders, sexual pleasure, sexual curiosity and boredom avoidance were significant positive predictors of sexual satisfaction, while lack of sexual satisfaction PUM was a significant negative predictor. Fantasy, stress reduction and self-exploration PUMs were positive significant predictors of sexual satisfaction, and fantasy was a negative significant predictor, but only for women. Findings highlight important gender differences in regards to the main motivations underlying pornography use and their relations to sexual satisfaction. While men and gender diverse individuals show similar motivation profiles, woman report a particularly unique experience, with fantasy, stress reduction and self-exploration being associated to their sexual satisfaction. This work outlines the importance of considering the role of pornography use motivations when studying the links between pornography viewing and sexual well-being, and may provide basis for gender-based considerations when working with individuals seeking help for their pornography use or sexual satisfaction.

Keywords: pornography, sexual satifsaction, cross-cultural, gender diversity

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99 Lignin Valorization: Techno-Economic Analysis of Three Lignin Conversion Routes

Authors: Iris Vural Gursel, Andrea Ramirez

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Effective utilization of lignin is an important mean for developing economically profitable biorefineries. Current literature suggests that large amounts of lignin will become available in second generation biorefineries. New conversion technologies will, therefore, be needed to carry lignin transformation well beyond combustion to produce energy, but towards high-value products such as chemicals and transportation fuels. In recent years, significant progress on catalysis has been made to improve transformation of lignin, and new catalytic processes are emerging. In this work, a techno-economic assessment of two of these novel conversion routes and comparison with more established lignin pyrolysis route were made. The aim is to provide insights into the potential performance and potential hotspots in order to guide the experimental research and ease the commercialization by early identifying cost drivers, strengths, and challenges. The lignin conversion routes selected for detailed assessment were: (non-catalytic) lignin pyrolysis as the benchmark, direct hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) of lignin and hydrothermal lignin depolymerisation. Products generated were mixed oxygenated aromatic monomers (MOAMON), light organics, heavy organics, and char. For the technical assessment, a basis design followed by process modelling in Aspen was done using experimental yields. A design capacity of 200 kt/year lignin feed was chosen that is equivalent to a 1 Mt/y scale lignocellulosic biorefinery. The downstream equipment was modelled to achieve the separation of the product streams defined. For determining external utility requirement, heat integration was considered and when possible gasses were combusted to cover heating demand. The models made were used in generating necessary data on material and energy flows. Next, an economic assessment was carried out by estimating operating and capital costs. Return on investment (ROI) and payback period (PBP) were used as indicators. The results of the process modelling indicate that series of separation steps are required. The downstream processing was found especially demanding in the hydrothermal upgrading process due to the presence of significant amount of unconverted lignin (34%) and water. Also, external utility requirements were found to be high. Due to the complex separations, hydrothermal upgrading process showed the highest capital cost (50 M€ more than benchmark). Whereas operating costs were found the highest for the direct HDO process (20 M€/year more than benchmark) due to the use of hydrogen. Because of high yields to valuable heavy organics (32%) and MOAMON (24%), direct HDO process showed the highest ROI (12%) and the shortest PBP (5 years). This process is found feasible with a positive net present value. However, it is very sensitive to the prices used in the calculation. The assessments at this stage are associated with large uncertainties. Nevertheless, they are useful for comparing alternatives and identifying whether a certain process should be given further consideration. Among the three processes investigated here, the direct HDO process was seen to be the most promising.

Keywords: biorefinery, economic assessment, lignin conversion, process design

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98 Analysis of the Development of Mining Companies Social Corporate Responsibility Based on the Rating Score

Authors: Tatiana Ponomarenko, Oksana Marinina, Marina Nevskaya

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Modern corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a sphere of multilevel responsibility of a company toward society represented by various stakeholders. The relevance of CSR management grows due to the active development of socially responsible investing (principles for responsible investment) taking into account factors of environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG), growing attention of the investment community in general to the long-term stability of companies and the quality of control of nonfinancial risks. The modern approach to CSR strategic management is aimed at the creation of trustful relationships with stakeholders, on the basis of which a contribution to the sustainable development of companies, regions, and national economics is insured. However, the practical concepts of social responsibility in mining companies are different, which leads to various degrees of application of CSR. A number of companies implement CSR using a traditional (limited) understanding of responsibility toward employees and counteragents, the others understand CSR much wider and try to use leverages of efficient cooperation. As in large mining companies the scope of CSR measures is diverse and characterized by different indices, the study was aimed at evaluating CSR efficiency on the basis of a proprietary methodology and determining the level of development of CSR management in terms of anti-crisis, reactive and proactive development. The methodology of the research includes analysis of integrated global reporting initiative (GRI) reports of large mining companies; choice of most representative sectoral agents by a criterion of the regularity of issuance and publication of reports; calculation of indices of evaluation of CSR level of the selected companies in dynamics. The methodology of evaluation of CSR level is based on a rating score of changes in standard indices of GRI reports by economic, environmental, and social directions. Result. By the results of the analysis, companies of fuel and energy and metallurgic complexes, in overwhelming majority, reflecting three indices out of a wide range of possible indicators of SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals), were selected for the study. The evaluation of the scopes of CSR of the companies Gazprom, LUKOIL, Metalloinvest, Nornikel, Rosneft, Severstal, SIBUR, SUEK corresponds to the reactive type of development according to a scale of CSR strategic management, which is the average value out of the possible values. The chief drawback is that companies, in the process of analyzing global goals, often choose the goals which relate to their own activities, paying insufficient attention to the interests of the stakeholders inside the country. This fact evidences the necessity of searching for more effective mechanisms of CSR control. Acknowledgment: This article is prepared within grant support of the RFBR, project 19-510-44013 'Development of the concept of mineral resources value formation in the context of sustainable development in resource-oriented economies'.

Keywords: sustainable development, corporate social responsibility, development strategies, efficiency assessment

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97 Wildlife Communities in the Service of Extensively Managed Fishpond Systems – Advantages of a Symbiotic Relationship

Authors: Peter Palasti, Eva Kerepeczki

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Extensive fish farming is one of the most traditional forms of aquaculture in Europe, usually practiced in large pond systems with earthen beds, where the growth of fish is based on natural feed and supplementary foraging. These farms have semi-natural environmental conditions, sustaining diverse wildlife communities that have complex effects on fish production and also provide a livelihood for many wetland related taxa. Based on their characteristics, these communities could be sources of various ecosystem services (ESs), that could also enhance the value and enable the multifunctional use of these artificially constructed and maintained production zones. To identify and estimate the whole range of wildlife’s contribution we have conducted an integrated assessment in an extensively managed pond system in Biharugra, Hungary, where we studied 14 previously revealed ESs: fish and reed production, water storage, water and air quality regulation, CO2 absorption, groundwater recharge, aesthetics, recreational activities, inspiration, education, scientific research, presence of semi-natural habitats and useful/protected species. ESs were collected through structured interviews with the local experts of all major stakeholder groups, where we have also gathered information about the known forms, levels (none, low, high) and orientations (positive, negative) of the contributions of the wildlife community. After that, a quantitative analysis was carried out: we calculated the total mean value of the services being used between 2014-16, then we estimated the value and percentage of contributions. For the quantification, we mainly used biophysical indicators with the available data and empirical knowledge of the local experts. During the interviews, 12 of the previously listed services (85%) were mentioned to be related to wildlife community, consisting of 5 fully (e.g., recreation, reed production) and seven partially dependent ESs (e.g., inspiration, CO2 absorption) from our list. The orientation of the contributions was said to be positive almost every time; however, in the case of fish production, the feeding habit of some wild species (Phalacrocorax carbo, Lutra lutra) caused significant losses in fish stocks in the study period. During the biophysical assessment, we calculated the total mean value of the services and quantified the aid of wildlife community at the following services: fish and reed production, recreation, CO2 absorption, and the presence of semi-natural habitats and wild species. The combined results of our interviews and biophysical evaluations showed that the presence of wildlife community not just greatly increased the productivity of the fish farms in Biharugra (with ~53% of natural yield generated by planktonic and benthic communities) but also enhanced the multifunctionality of the system through expanding the quality and number of its services. With these abilities, extensively managed fishponds could play an important role in the future as refugia for wetland related services and species threatened by the effects of global warming.

Keywords: ecosystem services, fishpond systems, integrated assessment, wildlife community

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96 Spatial and Temporal Variability of Meteorological Drought Including Atmospheric Circulation in Central Europe

Authors: Andrzej Wałęga, Marta Cebulska, Agnieszka Ziernicka-Wojtaszek, Wojciech Młocek, Agnieszka Wałęga, Tommaso Caloiero

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Drought is one of the natural phenomena influencing many aspects of human activities like food production, agriculture, industry, and the ecological conditions of the environment. In the area of the Polish Carpathians, there are periods with a deficit of rainwater and an increasing frequency in dry months, especially in the cold half of the year. The aim of this work is a spatial and temporal analysis of drought, expressed as SPI in a heterogenous area of the Polish Carpathian and of the highland Region in the Central part of Europe based on long-term precipitation data. Also, to our best knowledge, for the first time in this work, drought characteristics analyzed via the SPI were discussed based on the atmospheric circulation calendar. The study region is the Upper Vistula Basin, located in the southern and south-eastern part of Poland. In this work, monthly precipitation from 56 rainfall stations was analysed from 1961 to 2022. The 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used as indicators of meteorological drought. For the 3-month SPI, the main climatic mechanisms determining extreme droughts were defined based on the calendar of synoptic circulations. The Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the trend of extreme droughts. Statistically significant trends of SPI were observed on 52.7% of all analyzed stations, and in most cases, a positive trend was observed. Statistically significant trends were more frequently observed in stations located in the western part of the analyzed region. Long-term droughts, represented by the 12-month SPI, occurred in all stations but not in all years. Short-term droughts (3-month SPI) were most frequent in the winter season, 6 and 9-month SPI in winter and spring, and 12-month SPI in winter and autumn, respectively. The spatial distribution of drought was highly diverse. The most intensive drought occurred in 1984, with the 6-month SPI covering 98% of the analyzed region and the 9 and 12-month SPI covering 90% of the entire region. Droughts exhibit a seasonal pattern, with a dominant 10-year periodicity for all analyzed variants of SPI. Additionally, Fourier analysis revealed a 2-year periodicity for the 3-, 6-, and 9-month SPI and a 31-year periodicity for the 12-month SPI. The results provide insights into the typical climatic conditions in Poland, with strong seasonality in precipitation. The study highlighted that short-term extreme droughts, represented by the 3-month SPI, are often caused by anticyclonic situations with high-pressure wedges Ka and Wa, and anticyclonic West as observed in 52.3% of cases. These findings are crucial for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of short and long-term extreme droughts in Central Europe, particularly for the agriculture sector dominant in the northern part of the analyzed region, where drought frequency is highest.

Keywords: atmospheric circulation, drought, precipitation, SPI, the Upper Vistula Basin

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95 Plasma Chemical Gasification of Solid Fuel with Mineral Mass Processing

Authors: V. E. Messerle, O. A. Lavrichshev, A. B. Ustimenko

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Currently and in the foreseeable future (up to 2100), the global economy is oriented to the use of organic fuel, mostly, solid fuels, the share of which constitutes 40% in the generation of electric power. Therefore, the development of technologies for their effective and environmentally friendly application represents a priority problem nowadays. This work presents the results of thermodynamic and experimental investigations of plasma technology for processing of low-grade coals. The use of this technology for producing target products (synthesis gas, hydrogen, technical carbon, and valuable components of mineral mass of coals) meets the modern environmental and economic requirements applied to basic industrial sectors. The plasma technology of coal processing for the production of synthesis gas from the coal organic mass (COM) and valuable components from coal mineral mass (CMM) is highly promising. Its essence is heating the coal dust by reducing electric arc plasma to the complete gasification temperature, when the COM converts into synthesis gas, free from particles of ash, nitrogen oxides and sulfur. At the same time, oxides of the CMM are reduced by the carbon residue, producing valuable components, such as technical silicon, ferrosilicon, aluminum and carbon silicon, as well as microelements of rare metals, such as uranium, molybdenum, vanadium, titanium. Thermodynamic analysis of the process was made using a versatile computation program TERRA. Calculations were carried out in the temperature range 300 - 4000 K and a pressure of 0.1 MPa. Bituminous coal with the ash content of 40% and the heating value 16,632 kJ/kg was taken for the investigation. The gaseous phase of coal processing products includes, basically, a synthesis gas with a concentration of up to 99 vol.% at 1500 K. CMM components completely converts from the condensed phase into the gaseous phase at a temperature above 2600 K. At temperatures above 3000 K, the gaseous phase includes, basically, Si, Al, Ca, Fe, Na, and compounds of SiO, SiH, AlH, and SiS. The latter compounds dissociate into relevant elements with increasing temperature. Complex coal conversion for the production of synthesis gas from COM and valuable components from CMM was investigated using a versatile experimental plant the main element of which was plug and flow plasma reactor. The material and thermal balances helped to find the integral indicators for the process. Plasma-steam gasification of the low-grade coal with CMM processing gave the synthesis gas yield 95.2%, the carbon gasification 92.3%, and coal desulfurization 95.2%. The reduced material of the CMM was found in the slag in the form of ferrosilicon as well as silicon and iron carbides. The maximum reduction of the CMM oxides was observed in the slag from the walls of the plasma reactor in the areas with maximum temperatures, reaching 47%. The thusly produced synthesis gas can be used for synthesis of methanol, or as a high-calorific reducing gas instead of blast-furnace coke as well as power gas for thermal power plants. Reduced material of CMM can be used in metallurgy.

Keywords: gasification, mineral mass, organic mass, plasma, processing, solid fuel, synthesis gas, valuable components

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94 The Relationship between Body Fat Percent and Metabolic Syndrome Indices in Childhood Morbid Obesity

Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is characterized by a series of biochemical, physiological and anthropometric indicators and is a life-threatening health problem due to its close association with chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The syndrome deserves great interest both in adults and children. Central obesity is the indispensable component of MetS. Particularly, children, who are morbidly obese have a great tendency to develop the disease, because they are under the threat in their future lives. Preventive measures at this stage should be considered. For this, investigators seek for an informative scale or an index for the purpose. So far, several, but not many suggestions come into the stage. However, the diagnostic decision is not so easy and may not be complete particularly in the pediatric population. The aim of the study was to develop a MetS index capable of predicting MetS, while children are at the morbid obesity stage. This study was performed on morbid obese (MO) children, which were divided into two groups. Morbid obese children, who do not possess MetS criteria comprised the first group (n=44). The second group was composed of children (n=42) with MetS diagnosis. Parents were informed about the signed consent forms, which are required for the participation of their children in the study. The approval of the study protocol was taken from the institutional ethics committee of Tekirdag Namik Kemal University. Helsinki Declaration was accepted prior to and during the study. Anthropometric measurements including weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip C, head C, neck C, biochemical tests including fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin (INS), triglycerides (TRG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and blood pressure measurements (systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP)) were performed. Body fat percentage (BFP) values were determined by TANITA’s Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis technology. Body mass index and MetS indices were calculated. The equations for MetS index (MetSI) and advanced Donma MetS index (ADMI) were [(INS/FBG)/(HDL-C/TRG)]*100 and MetSI*[(SBP+DBP/Height)], respectively. Descriptive statistics including median values, compare means tests, correlation-regression analysis were performed within the scope of data evaluation using the statistical package program, SPSS. Statistically significant mean differences were determined by a p value smaller than 0.05. Median values for MetSI and ADMI in MO (MetS-) and MO (MetS+) groups were calculated as (25.9 and 36.5) and (74.0 and 106.1), respectively. Corresponding mean±SD values for BFPs were 35.9±7.1 and 38.2±7.7 in groups. Correlation analysis of these two indices with corresponding general BFP values exhibited significant association with ADMI, close to significance with MetSI in MO group. Any significant correlation was found with neither of the indices in MetS group. In conclusion, important associations observed with MetS indices in MO group were quite meaningful. The presence of these associations in MO group was important for showing the tendency towards the development of MetS in MO (MetS-) participants. The other index, ADMI, was more helpful for predictive purpose.

Keywords: body fat percentage, child, index, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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93 Optimization of Multi-Disciplinary Expertise and Resource for End-Stage Renal Failure (ESRF) Patient Care

Authors: Mohamed Naser Zainol, P. P. Angeline Song

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Over the years, the profile of end-stage renal patients placed under The National Kidney Foundation Singapore (NKFS) dialysis program has evolved, with a gradual incline in the number of patients with behavior-related issues. With these challenging profiles, social workers and counsellors are often expected to oversee behavior management, through referrals from its partnering colleagues. Due to the segregation of tasks usually found in many hospital-based multi-disciplinary settings, social workers’ and counsellors’ interventions are often seen as an endpoint, limiting other stakeholders’ involvement that could otherwise be potentially crucial in managing such patients. While patients’ contact in local hospitals often leads to eventual discharge, NKFS patients are mostly long term. It is interesting to note that these patients are regularly seen by a team of professionals that includes doctors, nurses, dietitians, exercise specialists in NKFS. The dynamism of relationships presents an opportunity for any of these professionals to take ownership of their potentials in leading interventions that can be helpful to patients. As such, it is important to have a framework that incorporates the strength of these professionals and also channels empowerment across the multi-disciplinary team in working towards wholistic patient care. This paper would like to suggest a new framework for NKFS’s multi-disciplinary team, where the group synergy and dynamics are used to encourage ownership and promote empowerment. The social worker and counsellor use group work skills and his/her knowledge of its members’ strengths, to generate constructive solutions that are centered towards patient’s growth. Using key ideas from Karl’s Tomm Interpersonal Communications, the Communication Management of Meaning and Motivational Interviewing, the social worker and counsellor through a series of guided meeting with other colleagues, facilitates the transmission of understanding, responsibility sharing and tapping on team resources for patient care. As a result, the patient can experience personal and concerted approach and begins to flow in a direction that is helpful for him. Using seven case studies of identified patients with behavioral issues, the social worker and counsellor apply this framework for a period of six months. Patient’s overall improvement through interventions as a result of this framework are recorded using the AB single case design, with baseline measured three months before referral. Interviews with patients and their families, as well as other colleagues that are not part of the multi-disciplinary team are solicited at mid and end points to gather their experiences about patient’s progress as a by-product of this framework. Expert interviews will be conducted on each member of the multi-disciplinary team to study their observations and experience in using this new framework. Hence, this exploratory framework hopes to identify the inherent usefulness in managing patients with behavior related issues. Moreover, it would provide indicators in improving aspects of the framework when applied to a larger population.

Keywords: behavior management, end-stage renal failure, satellite dialysis, multi-disciplinary team

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92 Residents' Incomes in Local Government Unit as the Major Determinant of Local Budget Transparency in Croatia: Panel Data Analysis

Authors: Katarina Ott, Velibor Mačkić, Mihaela Bronić, Branko Stanić

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The determinants of national budget transparency have been widely discussed in the literature, while research on determinants of local budget transparency are scarce and empirically inconclusive, particularly in the new, fiscally centralised, EU member states. To fill the gap, we combine two strands of the literature: that concerned with public administration and public finance, shedding light on the economic and financial determinants of local budget transparency, and that on the political economy of transparency (principal agent theory), covering the relationships among politicians and between politicians and voters. Our main hypothesis states that variables describing residents’ capacity have a greater impact on local budget transparency than variables indicating the institutional capacity of local government units (LGUs). Additional subhypotheses test the impact of each variable analysed on local budget transparency. We address the determinants of local budget transparency in Croatia, measured by the number of key local budget documents published on the LGUs’ websites. By using a data set of 128 cities and 428 municipalities over the 2015-2017 period and by applying panel data analysis based on Poisson and negative binomial distribution, we test our main hypothesis and sub-hypotheses empirically. We measure different characteristics of institutional and residents’ capacity for each LGU. Age, education and ideology of the mayor/municipality head, political competition indicators, number of employees, current budget revenues and direct debt per capita have been used as a measure of the institutional capacity of LGU. Residents’ capacity in each LGU has been measured through the numbers of citizens and their average age as well as by average income per capita. The most important determinant of local budget transparency is average residents' income per capita at both city and municipality level. The results are in line with most previous research results in fiscally decentralised countries. In the context of a fiscally centralised country with numerous small LGUs, most of whom have low administrative and fiscal capacity, this has a theoretical rationale in the legitimacy and principal-agent theory (opportunistic motives of the incumbent). The result is robust and significant, but because of the various other results that change between city and municipality levels (e.g. ideology and political competition), there is a need for further research (both on identifying other determinates and/or methods of analysis). Since in Croatia the fiscal capacity of a LGU depends heavily on the income of its residents, units with higher per capita incomes in many cases have also higher budget revenues allowing them to engage more employees and resources. In addition, residents’ incomes might be also positively associated with local budget transparency because of higher citizen demand for such transparency. Residents with higher incomes expect more public services and have more access to and experience in using the Internet, and will thus typically demand more budget information on the LGUs’ websites.

Keywords: budget transparency, count data, Croatia, local government, political economy

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91 Eosinophils and Platelets: Players of the Game in Morbid Obese Boys with Metabolic Syndrome

Authors: Orkide Donma, Mustafa M. Donma

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Childhood obesity, which may lead to increased risk for heart diseases in children as well as adults, is one of the most important health problems throughout the world. Prevalences of morbid obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are being increased during childhood age group. MetS is a cluster of metabolic and vascular abnormalities including hypercoagulability and an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). There are also some relations between some components of MetS and leukocytes. The aim of this study is to investigate complete blood cell count parameters that differ between morbidly obese boys and girls with MetS diagnosis. A total of 117 morbid obese children with MetS consulted to Department of Pediatrics in Faculty of Medicine Hospital at Namik Kemal University were included into the scope of the study. The study population was classified based upon their genders (60 girls and 57 boys). Their heights and weights were measured and body mass index (BMI) values were calculated. WHO BMI-for age and sex percentiles were used. The values above 99 percentile were defined as morbid obesity. Anthropometric measurements were performed. Waist-to-hip and head-to-neck ratios as well as homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were calculated. Components of MetS (central obesity, glucose intolerance, high blood pressure, high triacylglycerol levels, low levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol) were determined. Hematological variables were measured. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS. The degree for statistical significance was p ≤ 0.05. There was no statistically significant difference between the ages (11.2±2.6 years vs 11.2±3.0 years) and BMIs (28.6±5.2 kg/m2 vs 29.3±5.2 kg/m2) of boys and girls (p ≥ 0.05), respectively. Significantly increased waist-to-hip ratios were obtained for boys (0.94±0.08 vs 0.91±0.06; p=0.023). Significantly elevated values of hemoglobin (13.55±0.98 vs 13.06±0.82; p=0.004), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (33.79±0.91 vs 33.21±1.14; p=0.003), eosinophils (0.300±0.253 vs 0.196±0.197; p=0.014), and platelet (347.1±81.7 vs 319.0±65.9; p=0.042) were detected for boys. There was no statistically significant difference between the groups in terms of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratios as well as HOMA-IR values (p ≥ 0.05). Statistically significant gender-based differences were found for hemoglobin as well as mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and hence, separate reference intervals for two genders should be considered for these parameters. Eosinophils may contribute to the development of thrombus in acute coronary syndrome. Eosinophils are also known to make an important contribution to mechanisms related to thrombosis pathogenesis in acute myocardial infarction. Increased platelet activity is observed in patients with MetS and these individuals are more susceptible to CVDs. In our study, elevated platelets described as dominant contributors to hypercoagulability and elevated eosinophil counts suggested to be related to the development of CVDs observed in boys may be the early indicators of the future cardiometabolic complications in this gender.

Keywords: children, complete blood count, gender, metabolic syndrome

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90 Determinants of Life Satisfaction in Canada: A Causal Modelling Approach

Authors: Rose Branch-Allen, John Jayachandran

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Background and purpose: Canada is a pluralistic, multicultural society with an ethno-cultural composition that has been shaped over time by immigrants and their descendants. Although Canada welcomes these immigrants, many will endure hardship and assimilation difficulties. Despite these life hurdles, surveys consistently disclose high life satisfaction for all Canadians. Most research studies on Life Satisfaction/ Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) have focused on one main determinant and a variety of social demographic variables to delineate the determinants of life satisfaction. However, very few research studies examine life satisfaction from a holistic approach. In addition, we need to understand the causal pathways leading to life satisfaction, and develop theories that explain why certain variables differentially influence the different components of SWB. The aim this study was to utilize a holistic approach to construct a causal model and identify major determinants of life satisfaction. Data and measures: This study utilized data from the General Social Survey, with a sample size of 19, 597. The exogenous concepts included age, gender, marital status, household size, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, location, immigration status, religiosity, and neighborhood. The intervening concepts included health, social contact, leisure, enjoyment, work-family balance, quality time, domestic labor, and sense of belonging. The endogenous concept life satisfaction was measured by multiple indicators (Cronbach’s alpha = .83). Analysis: Several multiple regression models were run sequentially to estimate path coefficients for the causal model. Results: Overall, above average satisfaction with life was reported for respondents with specific socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle characteristics. With regard to exogenous factors, respondents who were female, younger, married, from high socioeconomic status background, born in Canada, very religious, and demonstrated high level of neighborhood interaction had greater satisfaction with life. Similarly, intervening concepts suggested respondents had greater life satisfaction if they had better health, more social contact, less time on passive leisure activities and more time on active leisure activities, more time with family and friends, more enjoyment with volunteer activities, less time on domestic labor and a greater sense of belonging to the community. Conclusions and Implications: Our results suggest that a holistic approach is necessary for establishing determinants of life satisfaction, and that life satisfaction is not merely comprised of positive or negative affect rather understanding the causal process of life satisfaction. Even though, most of our findings are consistent with previous studies, a significant number of causal connections contradict some of the findings in literature today. We have provided possible explanation for these anomalies researchers encounter in studying life satisfaction and policy implications.

Keywords: causal model, holistic approach, life satisfaction, socio-demographic variables, subjective well-being

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89 Enabling Participation of Deaf People in the Co-Production of Services: An Example in Service Design, Commissioning and Delivery in a London Borough

Authors: Stephen Bahooshy

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Co-producing services with the people that access them is considered best practice in the United Kingdom, with the Care Act 2014 arguing that people who access services and their carers should be involved in the design, commissioning and delivery of services. Co-production is a way of working with the community, breaking down barriers of access and providing meaningful opportunity for people to engage. Unfortunately, owing to a number of reported factors such as time constraints, practitioner experience and departmental budget restraints, this process is not always followed. In 2019, in a south London borough, d/Deaf people who access services were engaged in the design, commissioning and delivery of an information and advice service that would support their community to access local government services. To do this, sensory impairment social workers and commissioners collaborated to host a series of engagement events with the d/Deaf community. Interpreters were used to enable communication between the commissioners and d/Deaf participants. Initially, the community’s opinions, ideas and requirements were noted. This was then summarized and fed back to the community to ensure accuracy. Subsequently, a service specification was developed which included performance metrics, inclusive of qualitative and quantitative indicators, such as ‘I statements’, whereby participants respond on an adapted Likert scale how much they agree or disagree with a particular statement in relation to their experience of the service. The service specification was reviewed by a smaller group of d/Deaf residents and social workers, to ensure that it met the community’s requirements. The service was then tendered using the local authority’s e-tender process. Bids were evaluated and scored in two parts; part one was by commissioners and social workers and part two was a presentation by prospective providers to an evaluation panel formed of four d/Deaf residents. The internal evaluation panel formed 75% of the overall score, whilst the d/Deaf resident evaluation panel formed 25% of the overall tender score. Co-producing the evaluation panel with social workers and the d/Deaf community meant that commissioners were able to meet the requirements of this community by developing evaluation questions and tools that were easily understood and use by this community. For example, the wording of questions were reviewed and the scoring mechanism consisted of three faces to reflect the d/Deaf residents’ scores instead of traditional numbering. These faces were a happy face, a neutral face and a sad face. By making simple changes to the commissioning and tender evaluation process, d/Deaf people were able to have meaningful involvement in the design and commissioning process for a service that would benefit their community. Co-produced performance metrics means that it is incumbent on the successful provider to continue to engage with people accessing the service and ensure that the feedback is utilized. d/Deaf residents were grateful to have been involved in this process as this was not an opportunity that they had previously been afforded. In recognition of their time, each d/Deaf resident evaluator received a £40 gift voucher, bringing the total cost of this co-production to £160.

Keywords: co-production, community engagement, deaf and hearing impaired, service design

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88 Nurturing Scientific Minds: Enhancing Scientific Thinking in Children (Ages 5-9) through Experiential Learning in Kids Science Labs (STEM)

Authors: Aliya K. Salahova

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Scientific thinking, characterized by purposeful knowledge-seeking and the harmonization of theory and facts, holds a crucial role in preparing young minds for an increasingly complex and technologically advanced world. This abstract presents a research study aimed at fostering scientific thinking in early childhood, focusing on children aged 5 to 9 years, through experiential learning in Kids Science Labs (STEM). The study utilized a longitudinal exploration design, spanning 240 weeks from September 2018 to April 2023, to evaluate the effectiveness of the Kids Science Labs program in developing scientific thinking skills. Participants in the research comprised 72 children drawn from local schools and community organizations. Through a formative psychology-pedagogical experiment, the experimental group engaged in weekly STEM activities carefully designed to stimulate scientific thinking, while the control group participated in daily art classes for comparison. To assess the scientific thinking abilities of the participants, a registration table with evaluation criteria was developed. This table included indicators such as depth of questioning, resource utilization in research, logical reasoning in hypotheses, procedural accuracy in experiments, and reflection on research processes. The data analysis revealed dynamic fluctuations in the number of children at different levels of scientific thinking proficiency. While the development was not uniform across all participants, a main leading factor emerged, indicating that the Kids Science Labs program and formative experiment exerted a positive impact on enhancing scientific thinking skills in children within this age range. The study's findings support the hypothesis that systematic implementation of STEM activities effectively promotes and nurtures scientific thinking in children aged 5-9 years. Enriching education with a specially planned STEM program, tailoring scientific activities to children's psychological development, and implementing well-planned diagnostic and corrective measures emerged as essential pedagogical conditions for enhancing scientific thinking abilities in this age group. The results highlight the significant and positive impact of the systematic-activity approach in developing scientific thinking, leading to notable progress and growth in children's scientific thinking abilities over time. These findings have promising implications for educators and researchers, emphasizing the importance of incorporating STEM activities into educational curricula to foster scientific thinking from an early age. This study contributes valuable insights to the field of science education and underscores the potential of STEM-based interventions in shaping the future scientific minds of young children.

Keywords: Scientific thinking, education, STEM, intervention, Psychology, Pedagogy, collaborative learning, longitudinal study

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87 Home Garden: A Food-Based Strategy to Achieve Sustainable Impact on Household Nutrition of Resource-Poor Families in Nepal

Authors: Purushottam P. Khatiwada, Bikash Paudel, Ram B. Rana, Parshuram Biswakarma, Roshan Pudasaini

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Nepal has been putting its efforts into securing food and nutrition security for its citizens adopting different models and approaches. Home Garden approach, that integrates vegetables, fruits, small livestock, poultry along with other components like fish, honeybee, mushroom, spices for the promotion of nutritional security of resource-poor and disadvantaged groups was implemented during March 2009 to July 2013 spreading over 16 districts of Nepal covering 115 farmers groups, directly working with 3500 households. Sustained long-term impact of development interventions targeted to the resource-poor and disadvantaged groups has been a recurrent issue for donors, policymakers and practitioners alike. Considering the issue, a post-project evaluation was carried out in a selected project group (Dangibari of Jhapa) after four years of project completion in 2017 in order to evaluate the impact and understand the factors associated with its success. Qualitative information was collected through focus group discussion with group members and associated local institutions. For quantitative information, a quick survey was carried out to the same group members only selecting few indicators. The results are compared with the data obtained from the baseline study conducted by the project in March 2009. The impact of project intervention was evident as compared to the benchmarks established during the baseline, even after four years of project completion. The area under home garden is increased to 729 m² from 386 m² and average food self-sufficiency months increased to 10.22 from 8.11. Seven to eleven fruit species are maintained in the home gardens. An average number of vegetable species grown increased to 15.85 from 9.86. It has resulted in an increase in vegetables self-sufficient month to 8.74 from 4.74 and a huge increase in cash income NPR 6142.8 (USD 59.6) from NPR 385.7 (USD 3.9) from the sale of surplus vegetables. Coaching and mentoring including nutrition sensitization by the project staff at the beginning, inputs and technical support during the project implementation phase and projects effort on the institutional building of disadvantaged farmers were the key drivers of home garden sustainability and expansion. Specifically, package of home garden management trainings provided by the project staff, availability of group funds for buying inputs even after the project, uniting home garden group members in a cooperative, resource leveraging by local institutions through group lobbying, farmers innovations for maintaining home garden diversity and continuous backstopping support by few active members as local resource persons to other members are some additional factors contributing to sustain and/or improve the home garden status by the resource-poor and disadvantaged group.

Keywords: food-based nutrition, home garden, resource-poor and disadvantaged group, sustained impact

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86 Probing Scientific Literature Metadata in Search for Climate Services in African Cities

Authors: Zohra Mhedhbi, Meheret Gaston, Sinda Haoues-Jouve, Julia Hidalgo, Pierre Mazzega

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In the current context of climate change, supporting national and local stakeholders to make climate-smart decisions is necessary but still underdeveloped in many countries. To overcome this problem, the Global Frameworks for Climate Services (GFCS), implemented under the aegis of the United Nations in 2012, has initiated many programs in different countries. The GFCS contributes to the development of Climate Services, an instrument based on the production and transfer of scientific climate knowledge for specific users such as citizens, urban planning actors, or agricultural professionals. As cities concentrate on economic, social and environmental issues that make them more vulnerable to climate change, the New Urban Agenda (NUA), adopted at Habitat III in October 2016, highlights the importance of paying particular attention to disaster risk management, climate and environmental sustainability and urban resilience. In order to support the implementation of the NUA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has identified the urban dimension as one of its priorities and has proposed a new tool, the Integrated Urban Services (IUS), for more sustainable and resilient cities. In the southern countries, there’s a lack of development of climate services, which can be partially explained by problems related to their economic financing. In addition, it is often difficult to make climate change a priority in urban planning, given the more traditional urban challenges these countries face, such as massive poverty, high population growth, etc. Climate services and Integrated Urban Services, particularly in African cities, are expected to contribute to the sustainable development of cities. These tools will help promoting the acquisition of meteorological and socio-ecological data on their transformations, encouraging coordination between national or local institutions providing various sectoral urban services, and should contribute to the achievement of the objectives defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals. To assess the state of the art on these various points, the Web of Science metadatabase is queried. With a query combining the keywords "climate*" and "urban*", more than 24,000 articles are identified, source of more than 40,000 distinct keywords (but including synonyms and acronyms) which finely mesh the conceptual field of research. The occurrence of one or more names of the 514 African cities of more than 100,000 inhabitants or countries, reduces this base to a smaller corpus of about 1410 articles (2990 keywords). 41 countries and 136 African cities are cited. The lexicometric analysis of the metadata of the articles and the analysis of the structural indicators (various centralities) of the networks induced by the co-occurrence of expressions related more specifically to climate services show the development potential of these services, identify the gaps which remain to be filled for their implementation and allow to compare the diversity of national and regional situations with regard to these services.

Keywords: African cities, climate change, climate services, integrated urban services, lexicometry, networks, urban planning, web of science

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85 Volatility Index, Fear Sentiment and Cross-Section of Stock Returns: Indian Evidence

Authors: Pratap Chandra Pati, Prabina Rajib, Parama Barai

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The traditional finance theory neglects the role of sentiment factor in asset pricing. However, the behavioral approach to asset-pricing based on noise trader model and limit to arbitrage includes investor sentiment as a priced risk factor in the assist pricing model. Investor sentiment affects stock more that are vulnerable to speculation, hard to value and risky to arbitrage. It includes small stocks, high volatility stocks, growth stocks, distressed stocks, young stocks and non-dividend-paying stocks. Since the introduction of Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) volatility index (VIX) in 1993, it is used as a measure of future volatility in the stock market and also as a measure of investor sentiment. CBOE VIX index, in particular, is often referred to as the ‘investors’ fear gauge’ by public media and prior literature. The upward spikes in the volatility index are associated with bouts of market turmoil and uncertainty. High levels of the volatility index indicate fear, anxiety and pessimistic expectations of investors about the stock market. On the contrary, low levels of the volatility index reflect confident and optimistic attitude of investors. Based on the above discussions, we investigate whether market-wide fear levels measured volatility index is priced factor in the standard asset pricing model for the Indian stock market. First, we investigate the performance and validity of Fama and French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model in the Indian stock market. Second, we explore whether India volatility index as a proxy for fearful market-based sentiment indicators affect the cross section of stock returns after controlling for well-established risk factors such as market excess return, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Asset pricing tests are performed using monthly data on CNX 500 index constituent stocks listed on the National stock exchange of India Limited (NSE) over the sample period that extends from January 2008 to March 2017. To examine whether India volatility index, as an indicator of fear sentiment, is a priced risk factor, changes in India VIX is included as an explanatory variable in the Fama-French three-factor model as well as Carhart four-factor model. For the empirical testing, we use three different sets of test portfolios used as the dependent variable in the in asset pricing regressions. The first portfolio set is the 4x4 sorts on the size and B/M ratio. The second portfolio set is the 4x4 sort on the size and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. The third portfolio set is the 2x3x2 independent triple-sorting on size, B/M and sensitivity beta of change in IVIX. We find evidence that size, value and momentum factors continue to exist in Indian stock market. However, VIX index does not constitute a priced risk factor in the cross-section of returns. The inseparability of volatility and jump risk in the VIX is a possible explanation of the current findings in the study.

Keywords: India VIX, Fama-French model, Carhart four-factor model, asset pricing

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