A Comparative Study of the Impact of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) on Trends in the Second Demographic Transition in Rwanda

Authors: Etienne Gatera

Abstract:

Many studies have been conducted on SDT. Most of them focus on developed countries because of influencing factors such as; education, health, labor force, female labor force participation, industrialization, urbanization and migration. However, this thesis project paper aims to assess the impact of the total fertility rate (TFR) on the trends of the SDR in Rwanda. We will mainly be based in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide. Rwanda is located in East Africa, with approximately 13 million inhabitants. Thus, after the 1994 Tutsi genocide. The population growth rate exploded out of control with 6.17 children per woman in 1995. However, it's declined to 4.2 in 2014-2015 and declining to 4.1% in 2019-2020. Respectively with 3.4 children per woman in urban areas and 4.3 in rural areas. According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda. Rwanda's population is expected to continue to grow for the rest of the century and reach 33.35 million people in 2099, with 2.1 children per woman in 2050. However, this project document aims to demonstrate the impact of the TFR on SDT trends in Rwanda. Thus, the decline in the TFR in Rwanda began with the introduction of family planning practices, which now account for 47.5% in 2019. Childbearing with three children for rural women compared to two children in the city, the increase in Divorce and separation caused by the behavior called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "coming at night" similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The decline in remarriage is caused by single mothers behavior who prefer to raise their children rather than remarry. Therefore, the study used probability sampling with (Stratified random sampling) method with a survey questionnaire of 1067 respondents in the 5 Districts (3 in rural areas and two in urban areas), with the target group of women Age between 15-49. The study demonstrated that the age of marriage in rural areas is two years higher than in urban areas. Divorce is more common in urban is with 6.2% with 5.2% in rural areas. However, separation is more common in rural areas than in urban areas, with a lower rate of 3%, due to the higher system called "Kuza n'ijoro" or "come at night", similar to cohabitation in developed countries. The study revealed that more than 85% of divorced people prefer to remain single, which confirms the low remarriage rate. Childbearing has started to decrease, especially for young singles in urban areas, due to the economic situation, with national statistics showing that unemployment in the youth community is still 16% higher. Therefore, the study concluded by confirming the hypothesis based on the results of the TFR indicators such as marriage, remarriage, divorce, separation, divorce, Kuza n'ijoro, childbearing] and abortion. The study consists of four sections, an introduction and background, a review of the literature, a description of the data and methodology, an analysis of the data, discussion results and a conclusion.

Keywords: Kuza n'ijoro, Rwanda, second demographic transition (SDT), total fertility rate (TFR)