Search results for: prediction interval

Authors: Chia-Hao Chang, Geng-Gui Wang, Jee-Cheng Wu

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The prediction of a landslide is a difficult task because it requires a detailed study of past activities using a complete range of investigative methods to determine the changing condition. In this research, first step, LiDAR 1-meter by 1-meter resolution of digital elevation model (DEM) was used to generate six environmental factors of landslide. Then, back-propagation neural networks (BPNN) was adopted to identify scarp, landslide areas and non-landslide areas. The BPNN uses 6 environmental factors in input layer and 1 output layer. Moreover, 6 landslide areas are used as training areas and 4 landslide areas as test areas in the BPNN. The hidden layer is set to be 1 and 2; the hidden layer neurons are set to be 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8; the learning rates are set to be 0.01, 0.1 and 0.5. When using 1 hidden layer with 7 neurons and the learning rate sets to be 0.5, the result of Network training root mean square error is 0.001388. Finally, evaluation of BPNN classification accuracy by the confusion matrix shows that the overall accuracy can reach 94.4%, and the Kappa value is 0.7464.

Keywords: digital elevation model, DEM, environmental factors, back-propagation neural network, BPNN, LiDAR

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Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

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The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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Authors: Shangqing Song, Bin Xu, Yajun Cheng, Zhong Wang

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miRNAs derived from exosomes exist in a body fluid such as urine were regarded as potential biomarkers for various human cancers diagnosis and prognosis, as mature miRNAs can be steadily preserved by exosomes. However, its potential value in clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) diagnosis and prognosis remains unclear. In the present study, differentially expressed miRNAs from urinal exosomes were identified by next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology. The 16 differentially expressed miRNAs were identified between ccRCC patients and healthy donors. To explore the specific diagnosis biomarker of ccRCC, we validated these urinary exosomes from 70 early-stage renal cancer patients, 30 healthy people and other urinary system cancers, including 30 early-stage prostate cancer patients and 30 early-stage bladder cancer patients by qRT-PCR. The results showed that urinary exosome miR-30c-5p could be stably amplified and meanwhile the expression of miR-30c-5p has no significant difference between other urinary system cancers and healthy control, however, expression level of miR-30c-5p in urinary exosomal of ccRCC patients was lower than healthy people and receiver operation characterization (ROC) curve showed that the area under the curve (AUC) values was 0.8192 (95% confidence interval was 0.7388-0.8996, P= 0.0000). In addition, up-regulating miR-30c-5p expression could inhibit renal cell carcinoma cells growth. Lastly, HSP5A was found as a direct target gene of miR-30c-5p. HSP5A depletion reversed the promoting effect of ccRCC growth casued by miR-30c-5p inhibitor, respectively. In conclusion, this study demonstrated that urinary exosomal miR-30c-5p is readily accessible as diagnosis biomarker of early-stage ccRCC, and miR-30c-5p might modulate the expression of HSPA5, which correlated with the progression of ccRCC.

Keywords: clear cell renal cell carcinoma, exosome, HSP5A, miR-30c-5p

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Authors: Denis Duagi, Ben Carter, Maria Farrelly, Stephen Lisk, June S. L. Brown

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Background: Adolescence represents a distinctive phase of development, and variables linked to this developmental period could affect the efficiency of prevention and treatment for depression and anxiety, as well as the long-term prognosis. The objectives of this study were to investigate the long-term effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for adolescents on depression and anxiety symptoms and to assess the influence of different intervention parameters on the long-term effects. Methods: Searches were carried out on the 11ᵗʰ of August 2022 using five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, PsychInfo, Web of Science), as well as trial registers. Randomized controlled trials of psychosocial interventions targeting specifically adolescents were included if they assessed outcomes at 1-year post-intervention or more. The Cochrane risk of bias-2 quality assessment tool was used. The primary outcome was depression, and studies were pooled using a standardised mean difference, with an associated 95% confidence interval, p-value, and I². The study protocol was pre-registered (CRD42022348668). Findings: A total of 57 reports (n= 46,678 participants) were included in the review. Psychosocial interventions led to small reductions in depressive symptoms, with a standardised mean difference (SMD) at 1-year of -0.08 (95%CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.002, I²=72%), 18-months SMD=-0.12, 95% CI -0.22, -0.01, p=0.03, I²=63%) and 2-years SMD=-0.12 (95% CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.01, I²=68%). Sub-group analyses indicated that targeted interventions produced stronger effects, particularly when delivered by trained mental health professionals (K=18, SMD=-0.24, 95% CI -0.38, -0.10, p=0.001, I²=60%). No effects were detected for anxiety at any assessment. Conclusion: Psychosocial interventions specifically targeting adolescents were shown to have small but positive effects on depression symptoms but not anxiety symptoms, which were sustained for up to 2 years. These findings highlight the potential population-level preventive effects if such psychosocial interventions become widely implemented in accessible settings such as schools.

Keywords: psychosocial, adolescent, interventions, depression, anxiety, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial

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Authors: Ademola Azeez

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Background: This study is a two year review of requests pattern for Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA), in a Nigerian tertiary health care institution. Prostate specific antigen was first described about 44 years ago but is still in use today for, diagnosis, monitoring, screening and prognosis of prostatic carcinoma though not-very specific as was widely believed. Prostate cancer is an increasingly important public health problem among adult men worldwide. Nigeria, which was formerly regarded as a low-incidence area by several authors is now witnessing a steep rise in the occurrence of this disease. This has been suggested to be due to increasing availability of screening tests and diagnostic facilities and not necessarily because of increased incidence of the diseases. Many notable Nigerians have died due to this dreaded disease. Methods: All plasma samples for PSA from January 2021-December 2022 were analyzed weekly by abbot autoanalyser, chemiluminescence assay method. Bio-data from request form were collated and analyzed. A total of 385 requests were received for the period under review. Result: There was an increase of request from inception to the last year of review. Smoked food, consumption of local herb and alcohol in order of importance, respectively, appears to be prominent factor in patient requested for PSA. The mean age was 67.years; the youngest was 29, while the oldest was 93years. Age 70 has the highest frequency of 8.5% .Mean PSA was 12.9ng/ml. There was a positive correlation between age and PSA (R=0.255, P < 0.05).Significant increase in PSA with age were reported. Men who retired from active jobs constitute the highest request for PSA test. Conclusion: There was an increasing trend in the proportion of requests with values outside the reference interval especially in patients diagnosed of benign prostatic hyperplasia, prostate cancer, while some routine test for PSA were elevated for the first time .This is in line with earlier report of increasing incidence of prostate cancer in Nigeria despite the increasing knowledge of healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: pattern, PSA, tertiary institution, Nigeria

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Authors: Saeed Eskandari, Seyed Rasoul Mehdikhani

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Radiation sources have been used in many industries, such as gamma sources in medical imaging. These waves have destructive effects on humans and the environment. It is very important to detect and find the source of these waves because these sources cannot be seen by the eye. A portable robot has been designed and built with the purpose of revealing radiation sources that are able to scan the place from 5 to 20 meters away and shows the location of the sources according to the intensity of the waves on a two-dimensional digital image. The operation of the robot is done by measuring the pixels separately. By increasing the image measurement resolution, we will have a more accurate scan of the environment, and more points will be detected. But this causes a lot of time to be spent on scanning. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, we designed a method that can optimize this time. In this method, a small number of important points of the environment are measured. Hence the remaining pixels are predicted and estimated by regression algorithms in machine learning. The research method is based on comparing the actual values of all pixels. These steps have been repeated with several other radiation sources. The obtained results of the study show that the values estimated by the regression method are very close to the real values.

Keywords: regression, machine learning, scan radiation, robot

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Authors: Manish Pal, Rumi Sutradhar

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Pavement surface unevenness plays a pivotal role on roughness index of road which affects on riding comfort ability. Comfort ability refers to the degree of protection offered to vehicle occupants from uneven elements in the road surface. So, it is preferable to have a lower roughness index value for a better riding quality of road users. Roughness is generally defined as an expression of irregularities in the pavement surface which can be measured using different equipment like MERLIN, Bump integrator, Profilometer etc. Among them Bump Integrator is quite simple and less time consuming in case of long road sections. A case study is conducted on low volume roads in West District in Tripura to determine roughness index (RI) using Bump Integrator at the standard speed of 32 km/h. But it becomes too tough to maintain the requisite standard speed throughout the road section. The speed of Bump Integrator (BI) has to lower or higher in some distinctive situations. So, it becomes necessary to convert these roughness index values of other speeds to the standard speed of 32 km/h. This paper highlights on that roughness index conversional model. Using SPSS (Statistical Package of Social Sciences) software a generalized equation is derived among the RI value at standard speed of 32 km/h and RI value at other speed conditions.

Keywords: bump integrator, pavement distresses, roughness index, SPSS

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Authors: Sumit Roy

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A clear understanding of pedestrian behaviour at road crossing at intersections is needed for providing necessary infrastructure and also for enhancing pedestrian safety at any intersection. Pedestrian road crossing behaviour is studied at Motijheel and Kakrail intersections where Motijheel intersection is a controlled roundabout, and Kakrail intersection is a signalized intersection. Around 60 people at each intersection were interviewed for a questionnaire survey and video recording at different time of a day was done for observation at each intersection. In case of Motijeel intersection, we got pedestrian road crossings were much higher than Kakrail intersection. It is because the number of workplaces here is higher than Kakrail. From questionnaire survey, it is found that 80% of pedestrians crosses at intersection to avail buses and their loading and unloading locations are at intersection, whereas at Kakrail intersection only 25% pedestrian crosses the road for buses as buses do not slow down here. At Motijheel intersection 25 to 40% of pedestrians choose to jump over the barricade for crossing instead of using overbridge for saving time and labour. On the other hand, the pedestrians using overbridge told that they use overbridge for safety. Moreover, pedestrian crosses at the same pace for both red and green interval with vehicle movement in the range of 12.5 to 14.5 km/h and gaps between vehicle were more than 4 m. Here pedestrian crossing speed varies from 3.5 to 7.2 km/h. In Kakrail intersection the road crossing situation can be classified into 4 categories. In case of red time, pedestrians do not wait to cross the road, and crossing speed varies from 3.5 to 7.2 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 5.4 to 7.4 km/h, and gaps between vehicle vary from 1.5 to 2 m, most of the pedestrians initially choose to wait and try to cross the road in group with crossing speed 2.7 to 3.5 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 10.8 to 18 km/h, and gaps between vehicles varies from 2 to 3 m most of the people waits and cross the road in group with crossing speed 3.5 to 5.4 km/h. When vehicle speed varies from 25.2 to 32.4 km/h and gaps between vehicles vary from 4 to 6 m most of the pedestrians choose to wait until red time. In Kakrail intersection 87% of people said that they cross the road with risk and 60% of pedestrians told that it is risky to get on and off the bus at this intersection. Planned location of loading and unloading area for buses can improve the pedestrian road crossing behaviour at intersections.

Keywords: crossing speed, pedestrian behaviour, road crossing, use of overbridge

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Ru-Yu Lien, Shih-Hsin Hung, Shu-Fen Lu, Shu-I Chin, Wen-Ju Yang, Wan Ming-Shang, Chien-Ying Wang

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Background: Upon recovery from critical condition, patients are normally transferred from the intensive care units (ICUs) to the general wards. However, transferring patients to a new environment causes stressful experiences for both patients and their families. Therefore, there is a necessity to communicate with the patients and their families to reduce psychological stress and unplanned return. Methods: This study was performed in the general ICUs from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2021, in Taipei Veteran General Hospital. The patients who were evaluated by doctors and liaison nurses transferred to the general wards were selected as the research objects and ranked by the Critical Care Transition Program (CCTP). The plan was applied to 40 patients in a study group and usual care support for a control group of 40 patients. The psychological condition of patients was evaluated by a migration stress scale and a hospital anxiety and depression scale. In addition, the rate of return to ICU was also measured. Results: A total of 63 patients out of 80 (78.8%) experienced moderate to severe degrees of anxiety, and 42 patients (52.6%) experienced moderate to severe degrees of depression before being transferred. The difference between anxiety and depression changed more after the transfer; moreover, when a transition program was applied, it was lower than without a transition program. The return to ICU rate in the study group was lower than in the usual transition group, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.888, P=0.034). Conclusion: Our study found that the transfer program could reduce the anxiety and depression of patients and the associated stress on their families during the transition from ICU. Before being transferred out of ICU, the healthcare providers need to assess the needs of patients to set the goals of the care plan and perform patient-centered decision-making with multidisciplinary support.

Keywords: ICU, critical care transition program, healthcare, transition program

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Authors: R. Chanajaree, D. Luanwiset, K. Pongpratea

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Dye removal is an environmental concern because the textile industries have been increasing by world population and industrialization. Adsorption is the technique to find adsorbents to remove dyes from wastewater. This method is low-cost and effective for dye removal. This work tries to develop effective adsorbents using the computational approach because it will be able to predict the possibility of the adsorbents for specific dyes in terms of binding free energies. The computational approach is faster and cheaper than the experimental approach in case of finding the best adsorbents. All starting structures of dyes and adsorbents are optimized by quantum calculation. The complexes between dyes and adsorbents are generated by the docking method. The obtained binding free energies from docking are compared to binding free energies from the experimental data. The calculated energies can be ranked as same as the experimental results. In addition, this work also shows the possible orientation of the complexes. This work used two experimental groups of the complexes of the dyes and adsorbents. In the first group, there are chitosan (adsorbent) and two dyes (reactive red (RR) and direct sun yellow (DY)). In the second group, there are poly(1,2-epoxy-3-phenoxy) propane (PEPP), which is the adsorbent, and 2 dyes of bromocresol green (BCG) and alizarin yellow (AY).

Keywords: dyes removal, binding free energies, quantum calculation, docking

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Authors: Aimad Oulebsir, Toufik Chaabane, Sivasankar Venkatramann, Andre Darchen, Rachida Maachi

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The objective of this study is to propose a model for the prediction of the mechanism transfer of the trivalent ions through a nanofiltration membrane (NF) by introduction of the polarization concentration phenomenon and to study its influence on the retention of salts. This model is the combination of the Nernst-Planck equation and the equations of the film theory. This model is characterized by two transfer parameters: Reflection coefficient s and solute permeability Ps which are estimated numerically. The thickness of the boundary layer, δ, solute concentration at the membrane surface, Cm, and concentration profile in the polarization layer have also been estimated. The mathematical formulation suggested was established. The retentions of trivalent salts are estimated and compared with the experimental results. A comparison between the results with and without phenomena of polarization of concentration is made and the thickness of boundary layer alimentation side was given. Experimental and calculated results are shown to be in good agreement. The model is then success fully extended to experimental data reported in the literature.

Keywords: nanofiltration, concentration polarisation, chromium salts, mass transfer

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Sharifi, A. A. Bidokhti, M. Ezam, F. Ahmadi Givi

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This study focuses on the tidal oscillation and its speed to create a general pattern in seas. The purpose of the analysis is to find out the amplitude and phase for several important tidal components. Therefore, Regional Ocean Models (ROMS) was rendered to consider the correlation and accuracy of this pattern. Finding tidal harmonic components allows us to predict tide at this region. Better prediction of these tides, making standard platform, making suitable wave breakers, helping coastal building, navigation, fisheries, port management and tsunami research. Result shows a fair accuracy in the SSH. It reveals tidal currents are highest in Hormuz Strait and the narrow and shallow region between Kish Island. To investigate flow patterns of the region, the results of limited size model of FVCOM were utilized. Many features of the present day view of ocean circulation have some precedent in tidal and long- wave studies. Tidal waves are categorized to be among the long waves. So that tidal currents studies have indeed effects in subsequent studies of sea and ocean circulations.

Keywords: barotropic tide, FVCOM, numerical model, OTPS, ROMS

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Authors: Li Chen

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For an aerofoil or hydrofoil in high Reynolds number flows, broadband noise is generated efficiently as the result of the turbulence convecting over the trailing edge. This noise can be related to the surface pressure fluctuations, which can be predicted by either CFD or empirical models. However, in reality, the aerofoil or hydrofoil often operates at an angle of attack. Under this situation, the flow is subjected to an Adverse-Pressure-Gradient (APG), and as a result, a flow separation may occur. This study is to assess trailing-edge noise models for such flows. In the present work, the trailing-edge noise from a 2D airfoil at 6 degree of angle of attach is investigated. Under this condition, the flow is experiencing a strong APG, and the flow separation occurs. The flow over the airfoil with a chord of 300 mm, equivalent to a Reynold Number 4x10⁵, is simulated using RANS with the SST k-ɛ turbulent model. The predicted surface pressure fluctuations are compared with the published experimental data and empirical models, and show a good agreement with the experimental data. The effect of the APG on the trailing edge noise is discussed, and the associated trailing edge noise is calculated.

Keywords: aero-acoustics, adverse-pressure gradient, computational fluid dynamics, trailing-edge noise

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Authors: Zahra Okba, Hassan El Ouizgani

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Anticipating an individual’s behavior to the environmental factors allows for having relevant ecological forecasts. The Dynamic Energy Budget model facilitates prediction, and it is mechanically dependent on biology to abiotic factors but is generally field verified under relatively stable physical conditions. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory (DEB) is a robust framework that can link the individual state to environmental factors, and in our work, we have tested its ability to account for variability by looking at model predictions in the Agadir Bay, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate and temperature is strongly influenced by the trade winds front and nutritional availability. From previous works in our laboratory, we have collected different biological DEB model parameters of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussel in Agadir Bay. We mathematically formulated the equations that make up the DEB model and then adjusted our analytical functions with the observed biological data of our local species. We also assumed the condition of constant immersion, and then we integrated the details of the tidal cycles to calculate the metabolic depression at low tide. Our results are quite satisfactory concerning the length and shape of the shell in one part and the gonadosomatic index in another part.

Keywords: dynamic energy budget, mussels, mytilus galloprovincialis, agadir bay, DEB model

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Authors: Diana Katherine Gonzalez Galindo, David Rolando Suarez Mora

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With this study, we used data mining as a new alternative of the solution to evaluate the comments of the customers in order to find a pattern that helps us to determine some behaviors to reduce the deactivation of the partners of the LEVEL app. In one of the greatest business created in the last times, the partners are being affected due to an internal process that compensates the customer for a bad experience, but these comments could be false towards the driver, that’s why we made an investigation to collect information to restructure this process, many partners have been disassociated due to this internal process and many of them refuse the comments given by the customer. The main methodology used in this case study is the observation, we recollect information in real time what gave us the opportunity to see the most common issues to get the most accurate solution. With this new process helped by data mining, we could get a prediction based on the behaviors of the customer and some basic data recollected such as the age, the gender, and others; this could help us in future to improve another process. This investigation gives more opportunities to the partner to keep his account active even if the customer writes a message through the app. The term is trying to avoid a recession of drivers in the future offering improving in the processes, at the same time we are in search of stablishing a strategy which benefits both the app’s managers and the associated driver.

Keywords: agent, driver, deactivation, rider

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Authors: Sani Ismaila, Shafiu Yau, Abubakar Salisu, Buhari Salisu, Sharifat Balogun, Mustapha Abubakar, Biobaku Khalid, Agaie Bello

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Over the years, Japanese quail egg has been in use in the management of diseases. The objective of this study was to evaluate the analgesic, anti-inflammatory and gastroprotective effects of raw Quail egg (yolk + albumin) in rats. Pain was assessed in rats by recording the latent period and writing reflex, anti-inflammatory effect was determined using both motility and compression test, while the gastro-protective effects were assessed by observing the histology of the stomach after diclofenac-induced gastric ulcers and subsequent treatment with the quail egg, Rats were randomly assigned into 4 groups; Groups I: were the control non-treated (NT), Group II were treated with Tramadol 50 mg/kg/Os (TMD) or Indomethacin (IND) 5mg/kg/Os (positive control for the writhing reflex determination), while group III and IV were treated with 3 and 6g/kg of raw quail egg respectively). Groups treated with quail egg in both doses showed a significant increase in the latent period (p <0 .05) when compared to the control NT, but lower than the group treated with tramadol at 20mins interval (p<0.05). Writing reflexes decrease in groups II, III, and IV compared to the NT group (p < 0.05). While motility increases significantly (p < 0.05) in groups II, compared to I (p<0.05). Control non-treated rats showed a quicker and extensive response to compression using the Vanier calliper on the inflamed paw compared to groups II-IV (p < 0.05). Histological studies of the stomach revealed sloughing of the epithelia, cellular infiltration with micro abscesses in the non-treated, while groups treated concurrently with quail egg showed proliferation of the glandular epithelia and goblet cells, and those treated 30 minutes before diclofenac administration showed proliferation of glands and thickening of the squamous epithelia. This study showed that quail egg has analgesic, anti-inflammatory and gastro-protective potentials and can be used as adjuvant treatment whenever COX-2 enzymes inhibitors are indicated.

Keywords: analgesia, anti-inflammatory, gastroprotective effect, japanese quail egg

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Authors: X. Wang, T. J. Craft, H. Iacovides

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When handling the near-wall regions of turbulent flows, it is necessary to account for the viscous effects which are important over the thin near-wall layers. Low-Reynolds- number turbulence models do this by including explicit viscous and also damping terms which become active in the near-wall regions, and using very fine near-wall grids to properly resolve the steep gradients present. In order to overcome the cost associated with the low-Re turbulence models, a more advanced wall function approach has been implemented within OpenFoam and tested together with a standard log-law based wall function in the prediction of flows which involve 2-D shock wave/turbulent boundary layer interactions (SWTBLIs). On the whole, from the calculation of the impinging shock interaction, the three turbulence modelling strategies, the Lauder-Sharma k-ε model with Yap correction (LS), the high-Re k-ε model with standard wall function (SWF) and analytical wall function (AWF), display good predictions of wall-pressure. However, the SWF approach tends to underestimate the tendency of the flow to separate as a result of the SWTBLI. The analytical wall function, on the other hand, is able to reproduce the shock-induced flow separation and returns predictions similar to those of the low-Re model, using a much coarser mesh.

Keywords: SWTBLIs, skin-friction, turbulence modeling, wall function

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Authors: Arber Sejdiji, Jan Schmitz-Huebsch, Christian Mittelstedt

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Due to its use in a broad range of temperatures, the prediction of elastic properties of fiber composite materials under thermal load is significant. Especially the transversal stiffness dominates the potential of use for fiber-reinforced composites (FRC). A numerical study on the influence of thermal stress on transversal stiffness of fiber-reinforced composites is presented. In the numerical study, a representative volume element (RVE) is used to estimate the elastic properties of a unidirectional ply with finite element method (FEM). For the investigation, periodic boundary conditions are applied to the RVE. Firstly, the elastic properties under pure mechanical load are derived numerically and compared to results, which are obtained by analytical methods. Thereupon thermo-mechanical load is implemented into the model to investigate the influence of temperature change with low temperature as a key aspect. Regarding low temperatures, the transversal stiffness increases intensely, especially when thermal stress is dominant over mechanical stress. This paper outlines the employed numerical methods as well as the derived results.

Keywords: elastic properties, micromechanics, thermal stress, representative volume element

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Authors: Karthick Prasad Gunasekaran, B. Chase Babrich, Saurabh Shirodkar, Hee Hwang

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Construction preparation is crucial for the success of a construction project. By involving project participants early in the construction phase, project managers can plan ahead and resolve issues early, resulting in project success and satisfaction. This study uses quantitative data from construction management projects to determine the relationship between the pre-construction phase, construction schedule, and customer satisfaction. This study examined a total of 65 construction projects and 93 clients per job to (a) identify the relationship between the pre-construction phase and program reduction and (b) the pre-construction phase and customer retention. Based on a quantitative analysis, this study found a negative correlation between pre-construction status and project schedule in 65 construction projects. This finding means that the more preparatory work done on a particular project, the shorter the total construction time. The Net Promoter Score of 93 clients from 65 projects was then used to determine the relationship between construction preparation and client satisfaction. The pre-construction status and the projects were further analyzed, and a positive correlation between them was found. This shows that customers are happier with projects with a higher ready-to-build ratio than projects with less ready-to-build.

Keywords: NLP, BERT, LLM, deep learning, classification

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Authors: Abdelmounaim Zanaz, Sylvie Yotte, Fazia Fouchal, Alaa Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode is the most reported mode, i.e. the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this assumption, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation CV. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the modulus variation of voussoirs is proposed. The failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each CV value as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of CV, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increase with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young modulus of the segments is proven, taken it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault

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Authors: Riccardo Patriarca, Giulio Di Gravio, Francesco Costantino, Massimo Tronci

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An accurate inventory management policy acquires a crucial role in the several high-availability sectors. In these sectors, due to the high-cost of spares and backorders, an (S-1, S) replenishment policy is necessary for high-availability items. The policy enables the shipment of a substitute efficient item anytime the inventory size decreases by one. This policy can be modelled following the Multi-Echelon Technique for Recoverable Item Control (METRIC). The METRIC is a system-based technique that allows defining the optimum stock level in a multi-echelon network, adopting measures in line with the decision-maker’s perspective. The METRIC defines an availability-cost function with inventory costs and required service levels, using as inputs data about the demand trend, the supplying and maintenance characteristics of the network and the budget/availability constraints. The traditional METRIC relies on the hypothesis that a Poisson distribution well represents the demand distribution in case of items with a low failure rate. However, in this research, we will explore the effects of using a Poisson distribution to model the demand of low failure rate items characterized by an irregular demand trend. This characteristic of a demand is not included in the traditional METRIC formulation leading to the need of revising its traditional formulation. Using the CV (Coefficient of Variation) and ADI (Average inter-Demand Interval) classification, we will define the inherent flaws of Poisson-based METRIC for irregular demand items, defining an innovative ad hoc distribution which can better fit the irregular demands. This distribution will allow defining proper stock levels to reduce stocking and backorder costs due to the high irregularities in the demand trend. A case study in the aviation domain will clarify the benefits of this innovative METRIC approach.

Keywords: METRIC, inventory management, irregular demand, spare parts

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Authors: Muhittin Karaman, Murat Budakoglu

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In this study, derivation of lake bathymetry was evaluated using the high resolution Worldview-2 multispectral images in the very shallow hypersaline Lake Acıgöl which does not have a stable water table due to the wet-dry season changes and industrial usage. Every year, a great part of the lake water budget has been consumed for the industrial salt production in the evaporation ponds, which are generally located on the south and north shores of Lake Acıgöl. Therefore, determination of the water level changes from a perspective of remote sensing-based lake water by bathymetry studies has a great importance in the sustainability-control of the lake. While the water table interval is around 1 meter between dry and wet season, dissolved ion concentration, salinity and turbidity also show clear differences during these two distinct seasonal periods. At the same time, with the satellite data acquisition (June 9, 2013), a field study was conducted to collect the salinity values, Secchi disk depths and turbidity levels. Max depth, Secchi disk depth and salinity were determined as 1,7 m, 0,9 m and 43,11 ppt, respectively. Eight-band Worldview-2 image was corrected for atmospheric effects by ATCOR technique. For each sampling point in the image, mean reflectance values in 1*1, 3*3, 5*5, 7*7, 9*9, 11*11, 13*13, 15*15, 17*17, 19*19, 21*21, 51*51 pixel reflectance neighborhoods were calculated separately. A unique image has been derivated for each matrix resolution. Spectral values and depth relation were evaluated for these distinct resolution images. Correlation coefficients were determined for the 1x1 matrix: 0,98, 0,96, 0,95 and 0,90 for the 724 nm, 831 nm, 908 nm and 659 nm, respectively. While 15x5 matrix characteristics with 0,98, 0,97 and 0,97 correlation values for the 724 nm, 908 nm and 831 nm, respectively; 51x51 matrix shows 0,98, 0,97 and 0,96 correlation values for the 724 nm, 831 nm and 659 nm, respectively. Comparison of all matrix resolutions indicates that RedEdge band (724 nm) of the Worldview-2 satellite image has the best correlation with the saline shallow lake of Acıgöl in-situ depth.

Keywords: bathymetry, Worldview-2 satellite image, ATCOR technique, Lake Acıgöl, Denizli, Turkey

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Authors: Hikari Ryu, Yuki Fukuda, Kento Oishi, Chiharu Igarashi, Shogo Kiryu

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Recently, wireless power transfer has been developed in various fields. Magnetic coupling is popular for feeding power at a relatively short distance and at a lower frequency. Electro-magnetic wave coupling at a high frequency is used for long-distance power transfer. The wireless power transfer has attracted attention in e-textile fields. Rigid batteries are required for many body-worn electric systems at the present time. The technology enables such batteries to be removed from the systems. Flexible coils have been studied for such applications. Coils with a high Q factor are required in the magnetic-coupling power transfer. Antennas with low return loss are needed for the electro-magnetic coupling. Litz wire is so flexible to fabricate coils and antennas sewn on fabric and has low resistivity. In this study, the electric characteristics of some coils and antennas fabricated with the Litz wire by using two sewing techniques are investigated. As examples, a coil and an antenna are described. Both were fabricated with 330/0.04 mm Litz wire. The coil was a planar coil with a square shape. The outer side was 150 mm, the number of turns was 15, and the pitch interval between each turn was 5 mm. The Litz wire of the coil was overstitched with a sewing machine. The coil was fabricated as a receiver coil for a magnetic coupled wireless power transfer. The Q factor was 200 at a frequency of 800 kHz. A wireless power system was constructed by using the coil. A power oscillator was used in the system. The resonant frequency of the circuit was set to 123 kHz, where the switching loss of power FETs was small. The power efficiencies were 0.44 – 0.99, depending on the distance between the transmitter and receiver coils. As an example of an antenna with a sewing technique, a fractal pattern antenna was stitched on a 500 mm x 500 mm fabric by using a needle punch method. The pattern was the 2nd-oder Vicsec fractal. The return loss of the antenna was -28 dB at a frequency of 144 MHz.

Keywords: e-textile, flexible coils and antennas, Litz wire, wireless power transfer

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Authors: Nuo Xu, Sijing Chen

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Background: Childbirth is considered a critical traumatic event throughout our lives, positively or negatively impacting the mother's physiology, psychology, and even the whole family. Adverse birth experiences, such as labor pain, anxiety, and fear can negatively impact the mother. Studies had shown that the immersive nature of VR can distract attention from pain and increase focus on interventions for pain relief. However, the existing studies that applied VR to maternal delivery were still in their infancy and showed disparate results, and the small sample size is not representative, so this review analyzed the effects of VR in labor, such as on maternal pain and anxiety, with a view to providing a basis for future applications. Search strategy: We searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, CINAHL, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Wan-Fang database from the building to November 17, 2021. Selection Criteria: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that intervened the pregnant women aged 18-35 years with gestational >34 weeks and without complications with VR technology were contained within this review. Data Collection and Analysis: Two researchers completed the study selection, data extraction, and assessment of study quality. For quantitative data we used MD or SMD, and RR (risk ratio) for qualitative data. Random-effects model and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were used. Main Results: 12 studies were included. Using VR could relieve pain during labor (MD=-1.81, 95% CI (-2.04, -1.57), P< 0.00001) and active period (SMD=-0.41, 95% CI (-0.68, -0.14), P= 0.003), reduce anxiety (SMD=-1.39, 95% CI (-1.99, -0.78), P< 0.00001) and improve satisfaction (RR = 1.32; 95% CI (1.10, 1.59); P = 0.003), but the effect on the duration of first (SMD=-1.12, 95% CI (-2.38, 0.13), P=0.08) and second (SMD=-0.22, 95% CI (-0.67, 0.24), P=0.35) stage of labor was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Compared with conventional care, VR technology can relieve labor pain and anxiety and improve satisfaction. However, extensive experimental validation is still needed.

Keywords: virtual reality, delivery, labor pain, anxiety, meta-analysis, systematic review

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Authors: Ratchasak Suvannatsiri

Abstract:

The objectives of the research are to find the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil and to predict the impact on community members who live nearby the excavation pits in the area of Amphur Pak Thor, Ratchaburi Province in the western area of Thailand. The research was conducted by collecting soil samples from four excavation pits for basic engineering properties, testing and collecting questionnaire data from 120 community members who live nearby the excavation pits, and applying statistical analysis. The results found that the basic engineering properties of lateritic soil can be classified into silt soil type which is cohesionless as the loess or collapsible soil which is not suitable to be used for a pavement structure for commuting highway because it could lead to structural and functional failure in the long run. In terms of opinion from community members toward the impact, the highest impact was on the dust from excavation activities. The prediction from the logistic regression in terms of impact on community members was at 84.32 which can be adapted and applied onto other areas with the same context as a guideline for risk prevention and risk communication since it could impact the infrastructures and also impact the health of community members.

Keywords: lateritic soil, excavation pits, engineering properties, impact on community members

Procedia PDF Downloads 455

Authors: Tae Gwan Kim, Hyun Kyu Cho, Young Hoon Lee, Young Chul Park

Abstract:

Foam monitors are devices that are installed on cargo tank decks to suppress cargo area fires in oil tankers or hazardous chemical ship cargo ships. In general, the main design parameter of the foam monitor is the distance of the projection through the foam monitor. In this study, the relationship between flow characteristics and projection distance, depending on the shape was examined. Numerical techniques for fluid analysis of foam monitors have been developed for prediction. The flow pattern of the fluid varies depending on the shape of the flow path of the foam monitor, as the flow losses affecting projection distance were calculated through numerical analysis. The basic shape of the foam monitor was an L shape designed by N Company. The modified model increased the length of the flow path and used the S shape model. The calculation result shows that the L shape, which is the basic shape, has a problem that the force is directed to one side and the vibration and noise are generated there. In order to solve the problem, S-shaped model, which is a change model, was used. As a result, the problem is solved, and the projection distance from the nozzle is improved.

Keywords: CFD, foam monitor, projection distance, moment

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Md. Moinul Islam, N. M. Golam Zakaria

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Seakeeping analysis of catamaran vessels in the earlier stages of design has become an important issue as it dictates the seakeeping characteristics, and it ensures safe navigation during the voyage. In the present paper, a 3D numerical method for the seakeeping prediction of catamaran vessel is presented using the 3D Green Function method. Both steady and unsteady potential flow problem is dealt with here. Using 3D linearized potential theory, the dynamic wave loads and the subsequent response of the vessel is computed. For validation of the numerical procedure catamaran vessel composed of twin, Wigley form demi-hull is used. The results of the present calculation are compared with the available experimental data and also with other calculations. The numerical procedure is also carried out for NPL-based round bilge catamaran, and hydrodynamic coefficients along with heave and pitch motion responses are presented for various Froude number. The results obtained by the present numerical method are found to be in fairly good agreement with the available data. This can be used as a design tool for predicting the seakeeping behavior of catamaran ships in waves.

Keywords: catamaran, hydrodynamic coefficients , motion response, 3D green function

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: I. Behroyan, P. Ganesan, S. He, S. Sivasankaran

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This study compares the predictions of five types of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, including two single-phase models (i.e. Newtonian and non-Newtonian) and three two-phase models (Eulerian-Eulerian, mixture and Eulerian-Lagrangian), to investigate turbulent forced convection of Cu-water nanofluid in a tube with a constant heat flux on the tube wall. The Reynolds (Re) number of the flow is between 10,000 and 25,000, while the volume fraction of Cu particles used is in the range of 0 to 2%. The commercial CFD package of ANSYS-Fluent is used. The results from the CFD models are compared with results from experimental investigations from literature. According to the results of this study, non-Newtonian single-phase model, in general, does not show a good agreement with Xuan and Li correlation in prediction of Nu number. Eulerian-Eulerian model gives inaccurate results expect for φ=0.5%. Mixture model gives a maximum error of 15%. Newtonian single-phase model and Eulerian-Lagrangian model, in overall, are the recommended models. This work can be used as a reference for selecting an appreciate model for future investigation. The study also gives a proper insight about the important factors such as Brownian motion, fluid behavior parameters and effective nanoparticle conductivity which should be considered or changed by the each model.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, single-phase models, two-phase models

Procedia PDF Downloads 485