Search results for: risk

Authors: Ruzanna Muradyan

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Medical data mining is a crucial field in contemporary healthcare that offers cutting-edge tactics with enormous potential to transform patient care. This abstract examines how sophisticated data mining techniques could transform the healthcare industry, with a special focus on how they might improve patient outcomes. Healthcare data repositories have dynamically evolved, producing a rich tapestry of different, multi-dimensional information that includes genetic profiles, lifestyle markers, electronic health records, and more. By utilizing data mining techniques inside this vast library, a variety of prospects for precision medicine, predictive analytics, and insight production become visible. Predictive modeling for illness prediction, risk stratification, and therapy efficacy evaluations are important points of focus. Healthcare providers may use this abundance of data to tailor treatment plans, identify high-risk patient populations, and forecast disease trajectories by applying machine learning algorithms and predictive analytics. Better patient outcomes, more efficient use of resources, and early treatments are made possible by this proactive strategy. Furthermore, data mining techniques act as catalysts to reveal complex relationships between apparently unrelated data pieces, providing enhanced insights into the cause of disease, genetic susceptibilities, and environmental factors. Healthcare practitioners can get practical insights that guide disease prevention, customized patient counseling, and focused therapies by analyzing these associations. The abstract explores the problems and ethical issues that come with using data mining techniques in the healthcare industry. In order to properly use these approaches, it is essential to find a balance between data privacy, security issues, and the interpretability of complex models. Finally, this abstract demonstrates the revolutionary power of modern data mining methodologies in transforming the healthcare sector. Healthcare practitioners and researchers can uncover unique insights, enhance clinical decision-making, and ultimately elevate patient care to unprecedented levels of precision and efficacy by employing cutting-edge methodologies.

Keywords: data mining, healthcare, patient care, predictive analytics, precision medicine, electronic health records, machine learning, predictive modeling, disease prognosis, risk stratification, treatment efficacy, genetic profiles, precision health

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

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Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

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Authors: Lugean K. Alomari, Rahaf K. Sharif, Basil K. Alomari, Hind M. Aljabri, Faisal F. Aljahdali, Amal A. Alomari, Saeed A. Alghamdi

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Background: The thermal pulsation system is a therapy that uses heat and massage to treat dry eye disease; thus, some trials have been published to compare it with the conventional treatment. The aim of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis comparing the efficacy of thermal pulsation systems with conventional treatment in patients undergoing cataract surgery. Methods: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) databases were searched for eligible trials. We included three randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared the thermal pulsation system with the conventional treatment in patients undergoing cataract surgery. A table of characteristics was plotted, and the Quality of the studies was assessed using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials (RoB 2). Forest plots were plotted using the Random-effect Inverse Variance method. χ2 test and the Higgins-I-squared (I2) model were used to assess heterogeneity. A total of 201 cataract surgery patients were included, with 105 undergoing preoperative pulsation therapy and 96 receiving conventional treatment. Demographic analysis revealed comparable distributions across groups. Results: All the studies in our analysis are of good quality with a low risk of bias. A total of 201 patients were included in the analysis, out of which 105 underwent pulsation therapy, and 95 were in the control group. Tear Break-up Time (TBUT) analysis revealed no significant baseline differences, except pulsation therapy being better at 1 month. (SMD 0.42 [95%CI 0.14 - 0.70] p=0.004). This positive trend continued at three months (SMD 0.52 [95% CI (0.20 – 0.84)] p=0.002). Corneal fluorescein staining scores and Meibomian gland-yielding secretion scores showed no significant differences at baseline. However, at one month, pulsation therapy significantly improved Meibomian gland function (SMD -0.86 [95% CI (-1.20 - -0.53)] p<0.00001), indicating a reduced risk of dry eye syndrome. Conclusion: Preoperative pulsation therapy appears to enhance post-cataract surgery outcomes, particularly in terms of tear film stability and Meibomian gland secretory function. The sustained positive effects observed at one and three months post-surgery suggest the potential for long-term benefits.

Keywords: lipiflow, cataract, thermal pulsation, dry eye

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Authors: Monika Szpringer, Mariola Wojciechowska, Robert Dutkiewicz, Grażyna Nowak-Starz, Marzena Olędzka

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The main aim of this article is to determine the phenomenon of stress among academic teachers as well as to identify the extent to which the teachers experience work-related psychological risks. It is also important to support academic teachers trade unions in scope of stress-oriented activities, including psychological dangers in the assessment of risk in the workplace (college). The authors used a method of a diagnostic survey with a polling as a technique and authors’ questionnaire as a tool. The survey was conducted between September and December of 2013 and it comprised 1890 academic teachers from five voivodeships. The study reveals that 84.0% of the respondents found the work of an academic teacher to be borne with a considerable stress. The percentage values of the most frequent causes of stress are as follows: frequent changes of both organisational and didactic matters as well as overwhelming bureaucracy (77.8 %), time pressure regarding professional development and related risk of losing job (68.2 %), difficult working conditions (45.4%), conflicts and rivalry between teachers (44.1%), excessive amount of duties as well as increasing requirements and demanding attitude of students (33.7%). Work-related stress affects or significantly affects the private life of 69 % and 66.4 % of the respondents respectively. The majority of the people surveyed deals with stress by undertaking various activities, with 40% pointing at using various substances, mostly cigarettes and alcohol (p > 0,05) Physical ailments were experienced by 81% of the respondents, in 9% they were rare and 8 % of the respondents had never experienced such disorders. The entire group of the surveyed people (100 %) claimed that they have no possibility of contacting a psychologist at their workplace (p > 0.05), and they stated that the need of contacting specialists does exist.

Keywords: stress, academic teachers, psychological risks, work-related

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Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

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The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

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Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

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Authors: Ademola Ajibade

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Previous studies have explored several rationales for hedging strategies, but the evidence provided by these studies remains ambiguous. Using a hand-collected dataset of 2460 observations of non-financial firms in eight African countries covering 2013-2022, this paper investigates the determinants and extent of corporate hedge use. In particular, this paper focuses on the link between country-specific conditions and the corporate hedging behaviour of firms. To our knowledge, this represents the first African studies investigating the association between country-specific factors and corporate hedging policy. The evidence based on both univariate and multivariate reveal that country-level corruption and government quality are important indicators of the decisions and extent of hedge use among African firms. However, the connection between country-specific factors as a rationale for corporate hedge use is stronger for firms located in highly corrupt countries. This suggest that firms located in corrupt countries are more motivated to hedge due to the large exposure they face. In addition, we test the risk management theories and observe that CEOs educational qualification and experience shape corporate hedge behaviour. We implement a lagged variables in a panel data setting to address endogeneity concern and implement an interaction term between governance indices and firm-specific variables to test for robustness. Generally, our findings reveal that institutional factors shape risk management decisions and have a predictive power in explaining corporate hedging strategy.

Keywords: corporate hedging, governance quality, corruption, derivatives

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Authors: Inkyong Yi

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Acute kidney injury (AKI) in trauma patients is known to be associated with multiple factors, especially shock and consequent inadequate renal perfusion, yet its clinical presentation is little known in severe trauma patients. Our aim was to investigate the clinical presentation of acute kidney injury and its outcome in severe trauma patients at a level I trauma center. A total of 93 consecutive adult trauma patients with an injury severity score (ISS) of more than 15 were analyzed retrospectively from our Level I trauma center data base. Patients with direct renal injury were excluded. Patients were dichotomized into two groups, according to the presence of AKI. Various clinical parameters were compared between two groups, with Student’s T test and Mann-Whitney’s U test. The AKI group was further dichotomized into patients who recovered within seven days, and those who required more than 7days for recovery or those who did not recover at all. Various clinical parameters associated with outcome were further analyzed. Patients with AKI (n=33, 35%) presented with significantly higher age (61.4±17.3 vs. 45.4±17.3, p < 0.0001), incidence of comorbidities (hypertension; 51.5% vs. 13.3%, OR 6.906 95%CI 2.515-18.967, diabetes; 27.3% vs. 6.7%, OR 5.250, 95%CI 1.472-18.722), odds of head and neck trauma (69.7% vs. 41.7%, OR 3.220, 95%CI 1.306-7.942) and presence of shock during emergency room care (66.7% vs 21.7% OR 7.231, 95%CI, 2.798-18.687). Among AKI patients, patients who recovered within 1 week showed lower peak lactate (4.7mmol/L, 95%CI 2.9-6.5 vs 7.3mmol/L, 95%CI 5.0-9.6, p < 0.0287), lesser units of transfusion during first 24 hours (pRBC; 20.4unit, 95%CI 12.5-28.3 vs. 58.9unit, 95%CI 39.4-78.5, p=0.0003, FFP; 16.6unit, 95%CI 6.8-26.4 vs. 56.1unit, 95%CI 26.9-85.2, p=0.0027). In severe trauma patients, patients with AKI showed different clinical presentations and worse outcomes. Initial presence of shock and higher DIC profiles may be important risk factors for AKI in severe trauma patients. In patients with AKI, peak lactate level and amounts of transfusion are related to recovery.

Keywords: acute kidney injury, lactate, transfusion, trauma

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Authors: Cecilia Amponsem-Boateng, Timothy Bonney Oppongx, Weidong Zhang, Jonathan Boakye Yiadom, Lianke Wang, Kwabena Acheampong, Godfrey Opolot

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In Ghana, the management of hypertension in primary health care is a cost-effective way of addressing premature deaths from vascular disorders that include hypertension. There is little or no evidence of large-scale studies on the prevalence, risk, and knowledge/awareness of hypertension in students aged 12–22 years in Ghana. In a cross-sectional study, blood pressure, anthropometric indices, and knowledge/awareness assessment of students at second-cycle schools were recorded from 2018 to 2020 in three regions of Ghana. Multistage cluster sampling was used in selecting regions and the schools. Prevalence of prehypertension and hypertension was categorized by the Joint National Committee 7, where appropriate, chi-square, scatter plots, and correlations were used in showing associations. A total of 3165 students comprising 1776 (56.1%) females and 1389 (43.9%) males participated in this study within three regions of Ghana. The minimum age was 12 years and the maximum age was 22 years. The mean age was 17.21 with standard deviation (SD: 1.59) years. A 95% confidence interval was set for estimations and a P value < 0.05 was set as significant. The prevalence rate of overall hypertension was 19.91% and elevated (prehypertension) was 26.07%. Risk indicators such as weight, BMI, waist circumference, physical activity, and form of the diet were positively correlated with hypertension. Among Ghanaian students currently in second-cycle educational institutions, 19.91% were hypertensive and 26.07% were prehypertensive. This may indicate a probable high prevalence of hypertension in the future adult population if measures are not taken to curb the associated risks.

Keywords: hypertension, second-cycle schools, Ghana, youth

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Ali H.Alyami, Hussam Darraj, Faisal Hakami, Mohammed Awaf, Sulaiman Hamdi, Nawaf Bakri, Abdulaziz Saber, Khalid Hakami, Almuhanad Alyami, Mohammed khashab

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Introduction: Adolescents frequently self-report pain, according to epidemiological research. The knee is one of the sites where the pain is most common. One of the main factors contributing to the number of years people spend disabled and having substantial personal, societal, and economic burdens globally are musculoskeletal disorders. Adolescents may have knee pain due to an abrupt, traumatic injury or an insidious, slowly building onset that neither the adolescent nor the parent is aware of. Objectives: The present study’s authors aimed to estimate the prevalence of knee pain in Saudi adolescents. Methods: This cross-sectional survey, carried out from June to November 2022, included 676 adolescents ages 10 to 18. Data are presented as frequencies and percentages for categorical variables. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare means between groups, while the chi-square test was used for the comparison of categorical variables. Statistical significance was set at P< 0.05.Result: Adolescents were invited to take part in the study. 57.5% were girls, and 42.5% were males,68.8% were 676 aged between 15 and 18. The prevalence of knee pain was considerably high among females (26%), while it was 19.2% among males. Moreover, age was a significant predictor for knee pain; also BMI was significant for knee pain. Conclusion: Our study noted a high rate of knee pain among adolescents, so we need to raise awareness about risk factors. Adolescent knee pain can be prevented with conservative methods and some minor lifestyle/activity modifications.

Keywords: knee pain, prevalence of knee pain, exercise training, physical activity

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Authors: Nadia Belu, Laurenţiu Mihai Ionescu, Agnieszka Misztal

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The automotive industry is one of the most important industries in the world that concerns not only the economy, but also the world culture. In the present financial and economic context, this field faces new challenges posed by the current crisis, companies must maintain product quality, deliver on time and at a competitive price in order to achieve customer satisfaction. Two of the most recommended techniques of quality management by specific standards of the automotive industry, in the product development, are Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and Control Plan. FMEA is a methodology for risk management and quality improvement aimed at identifying potential causes of failure of products and processes, their quantification by risk assessment, ranking of the problems identified according to their importance, to the determination and implementation of corrective actions related. The companies use Control Plans realized using the results from FMEA to evaluate a process or product for strengths and weaknesses and to prevent problems before they occur. The Control Plans represent written descriptions of the systems used to control and minimize product and process variation. In addition Control Plans specify the process monitoring and control methods (for example Special Controls) used to control Special Characteristics. In this paper we propose a computer-aided solution with Genetic Algorithms in order to reduce the drafting of reports: FMEA analysis and Control Plan required in the manufacture of the product launch and improved knowledge development teams for future projects. The solution allows to the design team to introduce data entry required to FMEA. The actual analysis is performed using Genetic Algorithms to find optimum between RPN risk factor and cost of production. A feature of Genetic Algorithms is that they are used as a means of finding solutions for multi criteria optimization problems. In our case, along with three specific FMEA risk factors is considered and reduce production cost. Analysis tool will generate final reports for all FMEA processes. The data obtained in FMEA reports are automatically integrated with other entered parameters in Control Plan. Implementation of the solution is in the form of an application running in an intranet on two servers: one containing analysis and plan generation engine and the other containing the database where the initial parameters and results are stored. The results can then be used as starting solutions in the synthesis of other projects. The solution was applied to welding processes, laser cutting and bending to manufacture chassis for buses. Advantages of the solution are efficient elaboration of documents in the current project by automatically generating reports FMEA and Control Plan using multiple criteria optimization of production and build a solid knowledge base for future projects. The solution which we propose is a cheap alternative to other solutions on the market using Open Source tools in implementation.

Keywords: automotive industry, FMEA, control plan, automotive technology

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: C. T. Eze, I. N. E. Onwurah

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An important hydrogeologic problem in areas of high faults formations is high environmental health hazard occasioned by microbial and heavy metals contamination of ground waters. Consequently, we examined the microbial load and heavy metals concentration of hospital wastewater discharged into the environment at Park Lane General Hospital Enugu Urban, Nigeria. The microbial counts, characteristics and frequency of occurrences of the isolated microorganisms were determined by cultural, morphological and biochemical characteristics using established procedure while the varying concentrations of the identified heavy metals were determined using the spectrophotometric method. The microbiological analyses showed a mean total aerobic bacteria counts from 13.7 ± 0.65 × 107 to 22.8 ± 1.14 ×1010 CFU/ml, mean total anaerobic bacteria counts from 6.0 ± 1.6 × 103 to 1.7 ± 0.41 ×104 CFU/ml and mean total fungal counts from 0 ± 0 to 2.3 ± 0.16 × 105 CFU/ml. The isolated micro-organisms which included both pathogenic and non-pathogenic organisms were Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella typhi, Bacillus subtilis, Proteus vulgaris, Klesbsiella pneumonia and bacteriodes sp. The only fungal isolate was Candida albican. The heavy metals identified in the leachate were Arsenic, Cadmium, Lead, Mercury and Chromium and their concentrations ranged from 0.003 ± 0.00082 to 0.14 ± 0.0082 mg/l. These values were above WHO permissible limits while others fall within the limits. Therefore, hospital waste water can pose the environmental health risk when not properly treated before discharge, especially in geologic formations with high fault formations.

Keywords: bacterial isolates, fungal isolates, heavy metals, hospital wastewater, microbial counts

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Authors: Syeda Fahria Hoque Mimmi, Aparna Islam

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Genetically engineered (GE) plants are the need of time for increased demand for food. A complete set of regulations need to be followed from the development of a GE plant to its release into the environment. The whole regulation system is categorized into separate stages for maintaining the proper biosafety. Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is one of such crucial stages in the whole process. ERA identifies potential risks and their impacts through science-based evaluation where it is done in a case-by-case study. All the countries which deal with GE plants follow specific guidelines to conduct a successful ERA. In this study, ERA guidelines of 4 developing and 4 developed countries, including Bangladesh, were compared. ERA guidelines of countries such as India, Canada, Australia, the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, and the US were considered as a model to conduct the comparison study with Bangladesh. Initially, ten parameters were detected to compare the required data and information among all the guidelines. Surprisingly, an adequate amount of data and information requirements (e.g., if the intended modification/new traits of interest has been achieved or not, the growth habit of GE plants, consequences of any potential gene flow upon the cultivation of GE plants to sexually compatible plant species, potential adverse effects on the human health, etc.) matched between all the countries. However, a few differences in data requirement (e.g., agronomic conventions of non-transformed plants, applicants should clearly describe experimental procedures followed, etc.) were also observed in the study. Moreover, it was found that only a few countries provide instructions on the quality of the data used for ERA. If these similarities are recognized in a more framed manner, then the approval pathway of GE plants can be shared.

Keywords: GE plants, ERA, harmonization, ERA guidelines, Information and data requirements

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Authors: Sudson Sirivaidyapong, Ratthanan Sathienbumrungkit, Nongnapas Ruangpet, Nattanun Uaprayoon, Chawisa Wejjakul

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Many factors initiate mammary gland tumor in female dogs such as age, breed, sex, estrous cycle, birth control and pseudopregnancy. Those factors are mostly associated with canine sex hormone. In this study, questionnaires and direct interviews were used to collect information from owners of female dogs that had been diagnosed as mammary tumors at our veterinary teaching hospital, during January 2015 to October 2016 to compare the prevalence of mammary tumor between nulliparous and multiparous female dogs. 200 dogs (from all 212 mammary tumor patients, some were excluded because of inadequate information) were included in the study, 72.5% were nulliparous and 27.5% were multiparous. The results revealed that breed, age, birth control age and birth control methods were not different in both groups; most dogs in both groups were various purebreds, geriatric age, and low incidence of hormonal contraception while 100% of multiparous dogs and 83.7% of nulliparous dogs had been neutered at over two years old. The significant differences between two groups were the frequency of pseudopregnancy and estrus which were much higher in nulliparous female dogs. It can be concluded from our study that nulliparous dogs may be more likely at higher risk of mammary tumor compared to multiparous dogs from various factors especially, the frequency of estrus and the occurrence of pseudopregnancy which related to more times of sex hormonal contact. This study was a preliminary data for further studies to determine the other risk factors of mammary gland tumors in dogs, and to our knowledge, it is the first report on a significantly higher prevalence of mammary tumor in nulliparous female dogs than that in multiparous dogs. This finding corresponds with the study of breast cancer in women but may be from different causes and factors due to the differences in estrous physiology.

Keywords: canine, female dogs, nulliparous, multiparous, mammary tumor, prevalence

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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The study presents an overview of the many uses and approaches for estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement in earthquake mitigation. The study investigates how knowing and forecasting thrust movement during seismic occurrences might assist to effective earthquake mitigation measures. The review begins by discussing out-of-sequence thrust movement and its importance in earthquake mitigation strategies. It explores how typical techniques of estimating thrust movement may not capture the full complexity of seismic occurrences and emphasizes the benefits of include out-of-sequence data in the analysis. A thorough review of existing research and studies on out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates for earthquake mitigation. The study demonstrates how to estimate out-of-sequence thrust movement using multiple data sources such as GPS measurements, satellite imagery, and seismic recordings. The study also examines the use of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates in earthquake mitigation measures. It investigates how precise calculation of thrust movement may help improve structural design, analyse infrastructure risk, and develop early warning systems. The potential advantages of using out-of-sequence data in these applications to improve the efficiency of earthquake mitigation techniques. The difficulties and limits of estimating out-of-sequence thrust movement for earthquake mitigation. It addresses data quality difficulties, modelling uncertainties, and computational complications. To address these obstacles and increase the accuracy and reliability of out-of-sequence thrust movement estimates, the authors recommend topics for additional study and improvement. The study is a helpful resource for seismic monitoring and earthquake risk assessment researchers, engineers, and policymakers, supporting innovations in earthquake mitigation measures based on a better knowledge of thrust movement dynamics.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, satellite imagery, seismic recordings, GPS measurements

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Authors: Elspeth McInnes

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Research design is central to ethical research. Discriminatory research design is a key risk for researchers examining diverse cultural groups without conscious commitment to anti-discrimination values or knowledge of their culture. Culturally discriminatory research design is defined here as research proceeding from negative assumptions about people on the basis of race, colour, ethnicity, nationality or religion. Such discrimination can be direct or indirect. Direct discrimination is the uncritical mobilization of dominant group negative stereotypes of cultural minorities. Indirect discrimination is the examination of policies or programs grounded in dominant culture negative stereotypes that have been uncritically accepted by the researchers. This paper draws on anonymized elements of planned research projects and considers both direct and indirect cultural discrimination in research design and the responsibilities of ethics committees. Human research ethics committees provide a point of scrutiny with responsibility to alert researchers to risks of basing research on negative cultural stereotypes, as well as protecting participants from being subjected to negative discourses about them. This issue has become an increasing concern in a globalizing world of human displacement and migration creating a rise in the presence of minority cultures in host countries. As a nation established through colonization and immigration Australia has a long history of negative cultural stereotypes of Indigenous Australians as well as a legacy of the White Australia policy, which still echoes in attitudes to each wave of non-European immigration. The task of eliminating cultural discrimination in research design is vital to sustaining research integrity and ensuring that research is not used to reinforce or justify cultural discrimination.

Keywords: cultural discrimination, cultural stereotypes, participant risk, research design

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Authors: Julide Yildirim, Nadir Ocal

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Even though there are many studies investigating the extent and determinants of poverty, there is paucity of research investigating the issue of energy poverty in Turkey. The aim of this paper is threefold: First to investigate the extend of energy poverty in Turkey by using Household Budget Survey datasets belonging to 2005 - 2016 period. Second, to examine the risk factors for energy poverty. Finally, to assess the impact of social assistance program participation on energy poverty. Existing literature employs alternative methods to measure energy poverty. In this study energy poverty is measured by employing expenditure approach, where people are considered as energy poor if they disburse more than 10 per cent of their income to meet their energy requirements. Empirical results indicate that energy poverty rate is around 20 per cent during the time period under consideration. Since Household Budget Survey panel data is not available for 2005 - 2016 period, a pseudo panel has been constructed. Panel logistic regression method is utilized to determine the risk factors for energy poverty. The empirical results demonstrate that there is a statistically significant impact of work status and education level on energy poverty likelihood. In the final part of the paper the impact of social transfers on energy poverty has been examined by utilizing panel biprobit model, where social transfer participation and energy poverty incidences are jointly modeled. The empirical findings indicate that social transfer program participation reduces energy poverty. The negative association between energy poverty and social transfer program participation is more pronounced in urban areas compared with the rural areas.

Keywords: energy poverty, social transfers, panel data models, Turkey

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Authors: B. M. M. D. Mendis, L. I. Rajapaksa, P. S. K. Gunathunga, R. C. Fernando, M. Jayalath

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Background / introduction: During the year 2011, 8511 males received services from the sexual health clinics island wide. At present there is only limited information on the risk behaviours of male attendees. Information on risk behaviours related to STI /HIV transmission is helpful in planning suitable prevention interventions. Aim(s)/objectives: The objectives were to determines the sexual partners (other than the marital partner and regular partners) responsible for transmitting STI( Sexually transmitted infections)/ HIV and to understand the practice of safer sex. Methods: Study was a clinic based prospective study conducted for a one year period using an interviewer administered questionnaire. Results: 983 attendees were interviewed. . Mean age was 34.02 years. 75% of the sample had completed GCE O/L (ordinary level examination). Skilled labourers, drivers and forces/police comprised 40% of the sample. 50% admitted sex with a casual female, 12% with a casual male, and 13% with CSW (commercial sex workers) while MSW (male sex workers) exposures were minimal. It was identified that younger males had more contacts with males, and regular female partners while more older males with CSW. Anal sex among males was reported by 11.5%. 20.5% used alcohol frequently and 5.9% used drugs and 1.4% injected. Common STI were genital herpes (7.9%), Non gonococcal urethritis (6.2%) and gonorrhoea (6.2%). Among those who had contacts with FSW 6.7% gonorrhoea (GC), 8.2% non gonococcal urethritis (NGU), 7.5% genital herpes and 0.7% HIV. Non regular partner exposures 3.7% had gonorrhoea, 8.3% NGU, 6.6% genital herpes and 0.8% HIV. Among MSM contacts 10.6% had GC, 4.5% NGU, 5.3% genital herpes, 5.3% secondary syphilis and 0.8% HIV. Only 9.0% used condoms correctly. Friends, doctors, newspapers, internet, and forces were important sources of information on condoms. Non use of condoms were due to worry about satisfaction (24.6%) and faith in the partner (25.6%). Discussion/conclusion: Casual partners for unsafe sex is a concern. MSM and CSW are remained as an important source of infection. Early Syphilis and gonorrhoea infections were mostly seen among MSM exposures. The findings indicate that the male population in the sample had satisfactory education. However, still the unsafe sexual contacts are common. . Newspapers, internet were more important sources of information on condoms. Low condom use remains another concern.. More males contracted STI through casual partners. Therefore strategies used for prevention need to be revisited also emphasizing on general population where casual partners represent. . Increasing awareness of men and women through mass media and primary health care teams may be important strategies that can be used to keep the HIV epidemic in a low level.

Keywords: STI, HIV, Males, safe sex practices

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Authors: Emily Simango, T. Chitura

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Background: Bovine brucellosis is among the most neglected zoonotic diseases in developing countries, where it is endemic and a growing challenge to public health. The development of cost-effective control measures for the disease can only be affirmed by the knowledge of the disease epidemiology and the ability to define its risk profiles. The aim of the study was to document the trend of bovine brucellosis and the control measures adopted following reported cases during the period 2014 to 2019 in South Africa. Methods: Data on confirmed cases of bovine brucellosis was retrieved from the website of the World Organisation of Animal Health (WOAH). Data was analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (IBM SPSS, 2022) version 29.0. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and the Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were utilized for statistical significance (p<0.05). Results: The data retrieved in our study revealed an overall average bovine brucellosis prevalence of 8.48. There were statistically significant differences in bovine brucellosis prevalence across the provinces for the years 2016 and 2019 (p≥0.05), with the Eastern Cape Province having the highest prevalence in both instances. Documented control measures for the disease were limited to killing and disposal of disease cases as well as vaccination of susceptible animals. Conclusion: Bovine brucellosis is real in South Africa, with the risk profiles differing across the provinces. Information on brucellosis control measures in South Africa, as reported to the WOAH, is not comprehensive.

Keywords: zoonotic, endemic, Eastern Cape province, vaccination

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Authors: Ly Nguyen, Vidit Munshi

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During the Covid-19 recession, the United States government has implemented several instruments to mitigate the impacts and revitalize the economy. This paper explores the effects of the various government policy decisions on stock returns, housing prices, and investor psychology during the pandemic in the United States. A numerous previous literature studies on this subject, yet very few focus on the context similar to what we are currently experiencing. Our monthly data covering the period from January 2019 through July 2021 were collected from Datastream. Utilizing the VAR model, we document a dynamic relationship between the market and policy actions throughout the period. In particular, the movements of Unemployment, Stock returns, and Housing prices are strongly sensitive to changes in government policies. Our results also indicate that changes in production level, stock returns, and interest rates decisions influence how investors perceived future market risk and expectations. We do not find any significant nexus between monetary and fiscal policy. Our findings imply that information on government policy and stock market performance provide useful feedback to one another in order to make better decisions in the current and future pandemic. Understanding how the market responds to a shift in government practices has important implications for authorities in implementing policy to avoid assets bubbles and market overreactions. The paper also provides useful implications for investors in evaluating the effectiveness of different policies and diversifying portfolios to minimize systematic risk and maximize returns.

Keywords: Covid-19 recession, United States, government policies, investor psychology, housing prices, stock market returns

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Authors: Elizabeth McLean, Katrina Skewes-McFerran, Grace Thompson

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Scholarship highlights the need to further examine and better understand and foster the process of becoming a parent to a premature baby in the neonatal context to support the critical development of the parent-infant relationship. Music therapy research documents significant benefits of music therapy on neonatal physiological and neurodevelopmental function, reduced maternal anxiety and validating parents’ relationship with their premature baby, yet limited studies examine the role of music in supporting parental identity. This was a multi-site study, exploring parents’ musical engagement with their hospitalised baby and parental identity in a NU. In-depth interviews with nine parents of a premature baby across varying time points in their NU journey took place. Data collection and analysis was influenced by Constructive Grounded Theory methodology. Findings in the form of a substantive grounded theory illuminated the contribution of parents’ musical engagement on their sense of parental identity in the NU. Specifically, the significance of their baby’s level and type of response during musical interactions in influencing parents’ capacity to engage in musical dialogue with their baby emerged. Specific conditions that acted as both barriers and fosters in parents’ musical engagement across a high- risk pregnancy and NU admission also emerged. Recommendations for future research into the role of music and music therapy in supporting parental coping and transition to parenthood during a high-risk pregnancy and birth and beyond the NU will be discussed.

Keywords: grounded theory, musical engagement, music therapy, parental identity

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Authors: Maximiliano Guerra, Lexi Frankel, Amalia D. Ardeljan, Sarah Ghali, Diya Kohli, Omar M. Rashid.

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Introduction/Background: Haemophilus influenzae is present as a commensal organism in the nasopharynx of most healthy adults from where it can spread to cause both systemic and respiratory tract infection. Pathogenic properties of this bacterium as well as defects in host defense may result in the spread of these bacteria throughout the body. This can result in a proinflammatory state and colonization particularly in the lungs. Recent studies have failed to determine a link between H. Influenzae colonization and prostate cancer, despite previous research demonstrating the presence of proinflammatory states in preneoplastic and neoplastic prostate lesions. Given these contradictory findings, the primary goal of this study was to evaluate the correlation between H. Influenzae infection and the incidence of prostate cancer. Methods: To evaluate the incidence of Haemophilus influenzae infection and the development of prostate cancer in the future we used data provided by a Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA) compliant national database. We were afforded access to this database by Holy Cross Health, Fort Lauderdale for the express purpose of academic research. Standard statistical methods were employed in this study including Pearson’s chi-square tests. Results: Between January 2010 and December 2019, the query was analyzed and resulted in 13, 691 patients in both the control and C. difficile infected groups, respectively. The two groups were matched by age range and CCI score. In the Haemophilus influenzae infected group, the incidence of prostate cancer was 1.46%, while the incidence of the prostate cancer control group was 4.56%. The observed difference in cancer incidence was determined to be a statistically significant p-value (< 2.2x10^-16). This suggests that patients with a history of C. difficile have less risk of developing prostate cancer (OR 0.425, 95% CI: 0.382 - 0.472). Treatment bias was considered, the data was analyzed and resulted in two groups matched groups of 3,208 patients in both the infected with H. Influenzae treated group and the control who used the same medications for a different cause. Patients infected with H. Influenzae and treated had an incidence of prostate cancer of 2.49% whereas the control group incidence of prostate cancer was 4.92% with a p-value (< 2.2x10^-16) OR 0.455 CI 95% (0.526 -0.754), proving that the initial results were not due to the use of medications. Conclusion: The findings of our study reveal a statistically significant correlation between H. Influenzae infection and a decreased incidence of prostate cancer. Our findings suggest that prior infection with H. Influenzae may confer some degree of protection to patients and reduce their risk for developing prostate cancer. Future research is recommended to further characterize the potential role of Haemophilus influenzae in the pathogenesis of prostate cancer.

Keywords: Haemophilus Influenzae, incidence, prostate cancer, risk.

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Authors: Simone Raimondi De Souza, Glaucia Maria Moraes De Oliveira, Ronir Raggio Luiz, Glorimar Rosa

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Introduction: Obesity is among the main risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Genesis is multifactorial, including genetic, hormonal and environmental factors disorders, among which inadequate feeding pattern, for which nutritional counseling strategies have proven effective. The consumption of beta-glucans (soluble fibers that reportedly promote satiety) present in oat bran can be an effective strategy for preventing and treating obesity. Other benefits have been observed with oat bran consumption, such as reduction of hypercholesterolemia and hyperglycemia, two other risk factors for CVD. Objectives: To analyze the effect of oat bran consumption associated with nutritional counseling in reducing body mass index (BMI), blood cholesterol, glucose profile, waist and neck circumference in obese individuals, and to evaluate the change in eating pattern. Methods: clinical trial, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, lasting 90 days with adults of both genders, with BMI ≥30kg/m2. The study was approved by the Ethics in Research involving human beings in a public institute of cardiology, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Individuals were invited to participate and accepted formally by signing the Terms of Consent. Participants were randomized into oat bran group (gOB) or placebo group (gPCB) and received, respectively: morning prepared consisting of 40g oat bran, 30g of skimmed milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose; refined flour 40g rice, 30g of milk powder and 1g sweetener sucralose. The Ten Steps to Healthy Eating, of Brazilian Ministry of Health were used to support the nutritional counseling. Variables analyzed: gender; age; BMI, waist circumference (WC) neck circumference (NC); systolic blood pressure (SBP); diastolic blood pressure (DBP); food consumption, total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDL-c), HDL-cholesterol (HDL-c), non-HDL cholesterol (nHDLc), triglycerides (TG), fasting glucose (FG), fasting insulin (FI) and HOMA-IR. Dietary intake was assessed by 24-hour dietary recall. The Diet Quality Index revised for the Brazilian population (IQD-R) assessed quality of feeding pattern. Statistical analyzes were performed using SPSS version 21, considering statistically significant p-value less than 0.05. Results: A total of 38 participants were included, age = 50 ± 7,6years, 63% women. 19 subjects were placed in gOB and 19 in gPCB. After intervention, statistically significant reductions were observed in the following parameters: in gOB: IQD-R, TC, LDL-c, nHDL-c, FI, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC; in gPCB: IQD-R, LDL-c, SBP, DBP, BMI, WC, NC. No statistically significant differences were observed in the results between groups. Conclusion: Our results reinforce nutritional counseling as important strategy for prevention and treatment of obesity and suggest that inclusion of oat bran in daily diet can bring additional benefits controlling risk factors for CVD. More studies are needed to establish all benefits of oat bran to human health as well as the ideal daily dose for consumption.

Keywords: oat bran, cardiovascular disease, nutritional counseling, obesity

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Authors: Liang Weichien

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Without adequate information and mitigation plan for natural disaster, the risk to urban populated areas will increase in the future as populations grow, especially in Taiwan. Taiwan is recognized as the world's high-risk areas, where an average of 5.7 times of floods occur per year should seek to strengthen coherence and consensus in how cities can plan for flood and climate change. Therefore, this study aims at understanding the vulnerability to flooding in Taipei city, Taiwan, by creating indicators and calculating the vulnerability of each study units. The indicators were grouped into sensitivity and adaptive capacity based on the definition of vulnerability of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The indicators were weighted by using Principal Component Analysis. However, current researches were based on the assumption that the composition and influence of the indicators were the same in different areas. This disregarded spatial correlation that might result in inaccurate explanation on local vulnerability. The study used Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis by adding geographic weighting matrix as weighting to get the different main flood impact characteristic in different areas. Cross Validation Method and Akaike Information Criterion were used to decide bandwidth and Gaussian Pattern as the bandwidth weight scheme. The ultimate outcome can be used for the reduction of damage potential by integrating the outputs into local mitigation plan and urban planning.

Keywords: flood vulnerability, geographically weighted principal components analysis, GWPCA, highly urbanized area, spatial correlation

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Authors: Michael R. Taber, Kristin Stanec

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This paper presents year-two of a longitudinal study on implementing Possibility Books into undergraduate courses to develop a student's creativity mindset: tolerating ambiguity, willingness to risk failure, curiosity, and openness to embrace possibility thinking through unexpected connections. Courses involved in this research span disciplines in the natural and social sciences and the humanities. Year one of the project developed indices from which baseline data could be analyzed. The two significant indices ( > 0.7) were "creativity mindset" and "intentional interactions." Preliminary qualitative and quantitative data analysis indicated that students found the new pedagogical intervention as a safe space to learn new strategies, recognize patterns, and define structures through innovative notetaking forms. Possibility Books in Natural Science courses were designed to develop students' conceptualization of science and math. Using Possibility Books in all disciplines provided a space for students to practice divergent thinking (i.e.,Possibilities), convergent thinking (i.e., forms that express meaning), and risk-taking (i.e., the vulnerability associated with expression). Qualitative coding of open responses on a post-survey revealed two major themes: 1) Possibility Books provided a mind space for learning about self, and 2) provided a calming opportunity to connect concepts. Quantitative analysis indicated significant correlations between focused headspace and notetaking (r = 0.555, p < 0.001), focused headspace, and connecting with others (r = 0.405, p < 0.001).

Keywords: pedagogy, science education, learning methods, creativity mindsets

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Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Haithem Kalel, Salma Kammoun

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Background: During recent decades, mechanical and electrical industrial sector has greatly expanded with a significant employability potential. However, this sector faces the increasing prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders with heavy consequences associated with direct and indirect costs. Objective: The current intervention was motivated by large musculoskeletal upper limbs and back disorders frequency among the operators of an assembly workshop in a leader company specialized in sanitary equipment and water and gas connections. We aimed to identify biomechanical constraints among these operators through activity and biomechanical exposures semi-quantitative analysis based on video recordings and MUSKA-TMS software. Methods: We conducted, open observations and exploratory interviews at first, in order to overall understand work situation. Then, we analyzed operator’s activity through systematic observations and interviews. Finally, we conducted a semi-quantitative biomechanical constraints analysis with MUSKA-TMS software after representative activity period video recording. The assessment of biomechanical constrains was based on different criteria; biomechanical characteristics (work positions), aggravating factor (cold, vibration, stress, etc.) and exposure time (duration and frequency of solicitations, recovery phase); with a synthetic score of risk level variable from 1 to 4 (1: low risk of developing MSD and 4: high risk). Results: Semi-quantitative analysis objective many elementary operations with higher biomechanical constrains like high repetitiveness, insufficient recovery time and constraining angulation of shoulders, wrists and cervical spine. Among these risky elementary operations we sited the assembly of sleeve with the body, the assembly of axis, and the control on testing table of gas valves. Transformation of work situations were recommended, covering both the redevelopment of industrial areas and the integration of new tools and equipment of mechanical handling that reduces operator exposure to vibration. Conclusion: Musculoskeletal disorders are complex and costly disorders. Moreover, an approach centered on the observation of the work can promote the interdisciplinary dialogue and exchange between actors with the objective to maximize the performance of a company and improve the quality of life of operators.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, biomechanical constrains, semi-quantitative analysis, ergonomics

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Authors: Cindy Davis, Samantha Rayner

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Secondary traumatic stress (STS) is an indirect form of trauma affecting the psychological well-being of mental health workers; STS is found to be a prevalent risk in mental health occupations. Various factors impact the development of STS within the literature; including the level of trauma individuals are exposed to and their level of empathy. Research is limited on STS in mental health workers in Australia; therefore, this study examined STS and related factors of empathetic behavior and trauma caseload among mental health workers. The research utilized an online survey quantitative research design with a purposive sample of 190 mental health workers (176 females) recruited via professional websites and unofficial social media groups. Participants completed an online questionnaire comprising of demographics, the secondary traumatic stress scale and the empathy scale for social workers. A standard hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to examine the significance of covariates, traumatized clients, traumatic stress within workload and empathy in predicting STS. The current research found 29.5% of participants to meet the criteria for a diagnosis of STS. Age and past trauma within the covariates were significantly associated with STS. Amount of traumatized clients significantly predicted 4.7% of the variance in STS, traumatic stress within workload significantly predicted 4.8% of the variance in STS and empathy significantly predicted 4.9% of the variance in STS. These three independent variables and the covariates accounted for 18.5% of the variance in STS. Practical implications include a focus on developing risk strategies and treatment methods that can diminish the impact of STS.

Keywords: mental health, PTSD, social work, trauma

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Authors: Minbale Aschale, Bitew K. Dessie, Endaweke Assegide, Yosef Abebe, Tena Alamirew, Claire L. Walsh, Gete Zeleke

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The upper Awash Basin faces pollution challenges due to urbanization, population growth, and expanding industries. It receives various pollutants from its catchments. The study aimed to assess the impact of wastewater irrigation on vegetables and inform stakeholders about pollution challenges and consequences. Eighty-two composite samples of matured vegetables were randomly collected from twenty-one agricultural farm sites. These samples were analyzed for potentially toxic elements, including Cd, Pb, Cr, Hg, As, Ni, Sr, B, Co, Cu, Mn, Fe, Zn, and Se. The results indicated significant variations in concentrations across different sites, with localized contributions from various contaminants. Cr, Cd, and Pb concentrations in most vegetables exceeded recommended levels. Pollution levels varied with metals and vegetable types. Different vegetables contribute differently to health risks. The relative contributions of Ethiopian kale, cabbage, red beet, lettuce, Swiss chard, Gurage cabbage, tomato, zucchini, carrot, onion, watermelon, and potato to the aggregated risk were 12.69%, 12.25%, 11.83%, 11.20%, 10.21%, 9.91%, 8.49%, 5.66%, 3.96%, 3.35%, 3.10%, and 2.72%, respectively. Comparison with permissible standards revealed inadequate environmental management by relevant regulatory bodies and industries. Despite good laws and standards at the federal and regional levels, they are ineffectively implemented or enforced to prevent environmental pollution. Mitigation measures are urgently recommended to address the potential health implications of toxic substances.

Keywords: pollution, upper Awash Basin, health risk, Ethiopia

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Authors: Kamyar Tolouei, Ehsan Moosavi

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In open-pit mines, the long-term production scheduling optimization problem (LTPSOP) is a complicated problem that contains constraints, large datasets, and uncertainties. Uncertainty in the output is caused by several geological, economic, or technical factors. Due to its dimensions and NP-hard nature, it is usually difficult to find an ideal solution to the LTPSOP. The optimal schedule generally restricts the ore, metal, and waste tonnages, average grades, and cash flows of each period. Past decades have witnessed important measurements of long-term production scheduling and optimal algorithms since researchers have become highly cognizant of the issue. In fact, it is not possible to consider LTPSOP as a well-solved problem. Traditional production scheduling methods in open-pit mines apply an estimated orebody model to produce optimal schedules. The smoothing result of some geostatistical estimation procedures causes most of the mine schedules and production predictions to be unrealistic and imperfect. With the expansion of simulation procedures, the risks from grade uncertainty in ore reserves can be evaluated and organized through a set of equally probable orebody realizations. In this paper, to synthesize grade uncertainty into the strategic mine schedule, a stochastic integer programming framework is presented to LTPSOP. The objective function of the model is to maximize the net present value and minimize the risk of deviation from the production targets considering grade uncertainty simultaneously while satisfying all technical constraints and operational requirements. Instead of applying one estimated orebody model as input to optimize the production schedule, a set of equally probable orebody realizations are applied to synthesize grade uncertainty in the strategic mine schedule and to produce a more profitable and risk-based production schedule. A mixture of metaheuristic procedures and mathematical methods paves the way to achieve an appropriate solution. This paper introduced a hybrid model between the augmented Lagrangian relaxation (ALR) method and the metaheuristic algorithm, the Harris Hawks optimization (HHO), to solve the LTPSOP under grade uncertainty conditions. In this study, the HHO is experienced to update Lagrange coefficients. Besides, a machine learning method called Random Forest is applied to estimate gold grade in a mineral deposit. The Monte Carlo method is used as the simulation method with 20 realizations. The results specify that the progressive versions have been considerably developed in comparison with the traditional methods. The outcomes were also compared with the ALR-genetic algorithm and ALR-sub-gradient. To indicate the applicability of the model, a case study on an open-pit gold mining operation is implemented. The framework displays the capability to minimize risk and improvement in the expected net present value and financial profitability for LTPSOP. The framework could control geological risk more effectively than the traditional procedure considering grade uncertainty in the hybrid model framework.

Keywords: grade uncertainty, metaheuristic algorithms, open-pit mine, production scheduling optimization

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