Search results for: disease development

Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Maxwell Ladogo Abilla

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As evidence from the 2007–2008 and 2010 global food and financial crises revealed that food systems were under stress, the idea of sustainable food systems rose to prominence in the discussion of food security. The idea suggests moving away from a conception of food security that emphasizes production in favor of one that is more socially and environmentally conscious and interested in tackling a wide range of issues that have rendered the food system dysfunctional. This study evaluates the efforts made by international development organizations to increase food security in the area, taking into account the persistence of poverty and food insecurity in northern Ghana, utilizing the idea of sustainable food systems as the evaluation criterion. The study used triangulation to address the research questions by combining qualitative interview data with documentary analysis. To better comprehend the concept of sustainability, a variety of discourses and concepts are used, which results in the development of eight doable objectives for attaining sustainable food systems. The study finds that the food system in northern Ghana is unsustainable because of three kinds of barriers, with the practical objectives of developing sustainable food systems serving as the assessment criteria (natural, cultural and economic, and institutional). According to an evaluation of the World Food Programme's development support in northern Ghana, regional challenges to attaining sustainable food systems continue to be unaddressed by global development initiatives. Due to institutional constraints, WFP's interventions fell short of their promise. By demonstrating the need for development partners to enhance institutional efficiency and coordination, enable marginalized communities to access their rights, and prioritize agricultural irrigation in the area, the study makes a contribution to development policy and practice in northern Ghana.

Keywords: sustainable, food security, development, institutional

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Lorena F. Axinte

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Territorial rescaling is a universal practice in the UK, following a logic of agglomeration and competition as the only chance for cities to thrive. Cardiff Capital Region is one of the latest examples, and its governance structures and developmental narratives are currently being shaped. Its evolution must be compatible with the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act, a Welsh legislation that requires public bodies to put sustainability at the core of all actions. Departing from this case study, the project follows the evolution of Cardiff Capital Region and assesses it based on a new a conceptual framework that connects the notions of regenerative development, collaborative governance, and progressive regionalism. The hypothetical synergies between these different theoretical perspectives are demonstrated, inferring that if regenerative development is aimed at, it must necessarily start with collaborative modes of governance. The objective is to explore (a) whether expanding the network of active stakeholders who get to intervene in the governance structure can contribute to a more progressive definition and development of the city region and (b) whether this can be considered a pathway towards regenerative development. The exploratory fieldwork conducted during the initial phase of the project used qualitative methods, which will be complemented next by different participatory research approaches, as well as a quantitative analysis. Despite being in its early days, the study is showing that a wider range of voices can indeed change priorities, reconcile and balance between the economic drivers and the wider social, economic, cultural and environmental aspects.

Keywords: Cardiff Capital Region, collaborative governance, progressive regionalism, regenerative development

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Authors: N. C. van der Merwe, J. Oosthuizen, M. F. Makhetha, J. Adams, B. K. Dajee, S-R. Schneider

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Women representing high-risk breast cancer families, who tested negative for pathogenic mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2, are four times more likely to develop breast cancer compared to women in the general population. Sequencing of genes involved in genomic stability and DNA repair led to the identification of novel contributors to familial breast cancer risk. These include BLM and PALB2. Bloom's syndrome is a rare homozygous autosomal recessive chromosomal instability disorder with a high incidence of various types of neoplasia and is associated with breast cancer when in a heterozygous state. PALB2, on the other hand, binds to BRCA2 and together, they partake actively in DNA damage repair. Archived DNA samples of 66 BRCA1/2 negative high-risk breast cancer patients were retrospectively selected based on the presence of an extensive family history of the disease ( > 3 affecteds per family). All coding regions and splice-site boundaries of both genes were screened using High-Resolution Melting Analysis. Samples exhibiting variation were bi-directionally automated Sanger sequenced. The clinical significance of each variant was assessed using various in silico and splice site prediction algorithms. Comprehensive screening identified a total of 11 BLM and 26 PALB2 variants. The variants detected ranged from global to rare and included three novel mutations. Three BLM and two PALB2 likely pathogenic mutations were identified that could account for the disease in these extensive breast cancer families in the absence of BRCA mutations (BLM c.11T > A, p.V4D; BLM c.2603C > T, p.P868L; BLM c.3961G > A, p.V1321I; PALB2 c.421C > T, p.Gln141Ter; PALB2 c.508A > T, p.Arg170Ter). Conclusion: The study confirmed the contribution of pathogenic mutations in BLM and PALB2 to the familial breast cancer burden in South Africa. It explained the presence of the disease in 7.5% of the BRCA1/2 negative families with an extensive family history of breast cancer. Segregation analysis will be performed to confirm the clinical impact of these mutations for each of these families. These results justify the inclusion of both these genes in a comprehensive breast and ovarian next generation sequencing cancer panel and should be screened simultaneously with BRCA1 and BRCA2 as it might explain a significant percentage of familial breast and ovarian cancer in South Africa.

Keywords: Bloom Syndrome, familial breast cancer, PALB2, South Africa

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Authors: M. Taghavi Zavareh, H. Saremi

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Railway transportation is one of the types of transportation systems which, due to the advantages such as the ability to transport a large number of passengers, environmental protection, low energy consumption, and contribution to tourism, has importance. The existence of suitable and accessible stations is one of the requirements that leads to better performance and plays a significant role in the economic, social, political, and cultural development of urban areas. This paper aims to propose a framework for locating railway passenger stations. This research used descriptive-analytical methods and library tools to answer which definitions and theoretical approaches are suitable for the location of railway passenger stations. The results showed that theoretical approaches such as Transit-Oriented Development and Urban Regeneration are of the utmost importance theoretical bases in the field of research. Moreover, we studied three stations in Iran to find out about real trends and criteria in this research. This study also proposed four major criteria including accessibility, development, rail related and economics, and environmental harmony. Ultimately with an emphasis on the proposed criteria, the study concludes that the combination of Transit-Oriented Development and Urban Regeneration is the most suitable framework to locate railway passenger stations.

Keywords: railway passenger station, railway station, site selection, transit-oriented development, urban regeneration

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Authors: Irma Nool, Katriin Saueauk, Ebe Siimson, Vlada Žukova, Elise Gertrud Vellet

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Background: Asthma is one of themostcommonchronicdiseases in children, whichcansignificantlyaffectchildren, and challengetheirfamilies. The unpredictability, frequency, and control of asthma attacks have a profound effect on the daily lives of familieswithasthmaticchildren. Thereis a growing body of researchshowingthatthequality of life of parents and childrenislinkedtothedevelopment of asthma. Theoretical and clinicalstudiesprovethat a positive and well-functioningfamilysystemhelpstocopebetterwiththediagnosis of the chronic disease. The aim of theresearchwastodescribethecopingstrategies of parents of a childwithasthmaconcerningthechild'sillness. Method: Theresearchwasanempirical, quantitative, descriptive study. Thesamplewastheparents of a child with asthma at the Tallinn Children'sHospital, whose child was in inpatienttreatmentbetween 07.04.2021 and 12.09.2021. This is a convenient sample. 59 parentsrepliedtothequestionnaire. The questionnaire “CopingInventoryforStressfulSituations” wasusedtocollectthedata, whichwastranslatedinto Estonian and Russian using a back-and-forthtranslationtechnique. Thequestionnairewasanswered on a 5-point Likert scale. Dataanalysiswasperformedusing SPSS 26.0, descriptive statistics, with mean values and standard deviation. The Mann-Whitney U test wasusedtocomparefathers and motherscopingstrategies. PermissiontoconductresearchhasbeenobtainedfromtheEthicsCommitteeforHuman Research of theInstituteforHealthDevelopment. Results: The mean age of the respondents was 40 ± 6.2 years (median 40), withtheyoungestbeing 27 yearsold and the oldest being 57 yearsold. Of the respondents, 51 (86.4%) were mothers, and 8 (13.6%) werefathers. Parentsusedthemosttask-orientedcopingstrategies (mean 3.35 ± 0.602) and theleastemotion-orientedcopingstrategies (mean 1.97 ± 0.526). Mothersusedmoretask-orientedcopingstrategies (p = 0.001) than fathers. Fathersusedemotion-orientedcopingstrategiesless (p = 0.024) than mothers. mothersplantheirtimebetter (p = 0.043), focus on the problem and look at how to solve it (p = 0.007), and makeanefforttogetthingsdone (p = 0.045). mothersblamethemselvesmorefornotknowingwhattodo (p = 0.045) and worryaboutwhattheyshoulddo (p = 0.027). mothers look more at the goods displayed in the shop windows (p = 0.018) and go for a walk (p = 0.007) compared to fathers. Conclusions: The results of theresearchshowedthatproblem-orientedcopingstrategiesare used the most and there are differences in the behavior of fathers and mothers. Thisshouldbetakenintoaccountwhenprovidingfamily-centered nursing care.

Keywords: asthma, coping strategies, parents, family

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Authors: Csilla Paksi-Petró

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The Hungarian national public administration training system providing continuous, lifelong further training to some ten thousand executives in public administration was launched in 2014, adding skills and competency development to the previous training solutions, which had a mainly legal and professional approach. The executive training system is being continuously developed since tackling the existing qualitative, and quantitative challenges calls for the introduction of novel, innovative solutions. With a gap-filling character, this study presents, in brief, the last eight years of system of executive training in public administration, supported by the outcomes of the author's empirical research, makes suggestions for the possible directions of its further development. Through this article, the reader may obtain an overview of the current Hungarian civil service further training system, its institution system, the method of its application, its target groups, its results, and its development prospects. By reading the article, the reader will get acquainted with the good practices of the Hungarian civil service further training system.

Keywords: coaching, e-learning, executive development, further-training

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Authors: Björn de Kruijf, Arjen Edzes, Sietske Waslander

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In an ever-quickly changing society, lifelong development is seen as a solution to labor market problems by politicians and policymakers. In this paper, we investigate how policy instruments are used to increase participation in lifelong development and on which behavioral principles policy is based. Digitization, automation, and an aging population change society and the labor market accordingly. Skills that were once most sought after in the workforce can become abundantly present. For people to remain relevant in the working population, they need to continue adapting new skills useful in the current labor market. Many reports have been written that focus on the role of lifelong development in this changing society and how lifelong development can help keep people adapt and stay relevant. Inspired by these reports, governments have implemented a broad range of policies to support participation in lifelong development. The question we ask ourselves is how government policies promote participation in lifelong development. This stems from a complex interplay of policy instruments and learning. Regulation, economic and soft instruments can be combined to promote lifelong development, and different types of education further complex policies on lifelong development. Literature suggests that different stages in people’s lives might warrant different methods of learning. Governments could anticipate this in their policies. In order to influence people’s behavior, the government can tap into a broad range of sociological, psychological, and (behavioral) economic principles. The traditional economic assumption that behavior is rational is known to be only partially true, and the government can use many biases in human behavior to stimulate participation in lifelong development. In this paper, we also try to find which biases the government taps into to promote participation if they tap into any of these biases. The goal of this paper is to analyze government policies intended to promote participation in lifelong development. To do this, we develop a framework to analyze the policies on lifelong development. We specifically incorporate the role of learning and the behavioral principles underlying policy instruments in the framework. We apply this framework to the case of the Netherlands, where we examine a set of policy documents. We single out the policies the government has put in place and how they are vertically and horizontally related. Afterward, we apply the framework and classify the individual policies by policy instrument and by type of learning. We find that the Dutch government focuses on formal and non-formal learning in their policy instruments. However, the literature suggests that learning at a later age is mainly done in an informal manner through experiences.

Keywords: learning, lifelong development, policy analysis, policy instruments

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Authors: Ayanori Sugiyama, Takahisa Hanei, Yasuhide Higo

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Domestic demand for the construction of tunnels has been increasing in recent years in Japan. To meet this demand, various construction materials and construction methods have been developed to attain higher strength, reduction of negative impact on the environment and improvement for working conditions. In this report, we would like to introduce the newly developed shotcrete with superior hardening properties which were tested through the actual machine scale and its workability and strength development were evaluated. As a result, this new tunnel construction method was found to achieve higher workability and quicker strength development in only a couple of minutes.

Keywords: accelerator, shotcrete, tunnel, high-strength

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Authors: Pritika Ramharack, Mahmoud E. S. Soliman

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The re-emerging Zika virus is an arthropod-borne virus that has been described to have explosive potential as a worldwide pandemic. The initial transmission of the virus was through a mosquito vector, however, evolving modes of transmission has allowed the spread of the disease over continents. The virus already been linked to irreversible chronic central nervous system (CNS) conditions. The concerns of the scientific and clinical community are the consequences of Zika viral mutations, thus suggesting the urgent need for viral inhibitors. There have been large strides in vaccine development against the virus but there are still no FDA-approved drugs available. Rapid rational drug design and discovery research is fundamental in the production of potent inhibitors against the virus that will not just mask the virus, but destroy it completely. In silico drug design allows for this prompt screening of potential leads, thus decreasing the consumption of precious time and resources. This study demonstrates an optimized and proven screening technique in the discovery of two potential small molecule inhibitors of Zika virus Methyltransferase and RNA-dependent RNA polymerase. This in silico “per-residue energy decomposition pharmacophore” virtual screening approach will be critical in aiding scientists in the discovery of not only effective inhibitors of Zika viral targets, but also a wide range of anti-viral agents.

Keywords: NS5 protein inhibitors, per-residue decomposition, pharmacophore model, virtual screening, Zika virus

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Authors: Vivek Ku, A. K. Janmeja, D. Aggarwal, R. Gupta

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Purpose: Pulmonary rehabilitation plays a key role in management of chronic lung diseases. However, pulmonary rehabilitation is an underused modality in the management of interstitial lung disease (ILD). This is because limited information is available in literature and no data is available from India on this issue so far. The study was carried out to evaluate the role of pulmonary rehabilitation on respiratory parameters in ILD patients. Methods: The present study was a prospective randomized non-blind case control study. Total of 40 ILD patients were randomized into 2 groups of 20 patients each viz ‘pulmonary rehabilitation group’ and ‘control group’. Pulmonary rehabilitation group underwent 8 weeks pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) along with medical management as per guidelines and the control group was advised only medical management. Results: Mean age in case group was 59.15 ± 10.39 years and in control group was 62.10 ± 14.54 years. The case and the control groups were matched for age and sex. Mean MRC grading at the end of 8 weeks showed significant improvement in the case group as compared to control group (p= 0.011 vs p = 0.655). Similarly, mean St. George Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score also showed significant improvement in pulmonary rehabilitation group at the end of the study (p= 0.001 vs p= 0.492). However, FEV1 and FVC had no significant change in the case and control group. Similarly, blood gases also did not show any significant difference in the group. Conclusion: Pulmonary rehabilitation improves breathlessness and thereby improves quality of life in the patients suffering from ILD. However, the pulmonary function values and blood gases are unaffected by pulmonary rehabilitation. Clinical Implications: Further large scale multicentre study is needed to ascertain the association.

Keywords: ILD, pulmonary rehabilitation, quality of life, pulmonary functions

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Authors: Hong Chen, Li Heping

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China's urbanization rate has exceeded 60%, and in the long term, China's urbanization development will enter a new stage of transformation and development focusing on quality improvement, and urban renewal has become an important part of China's urban development. In the past, many cities in the process of renewal in order to maximize the pursuit of economic interests, large-scale demolition of the old to build new, accelerating the disappearance of regional history and culture, aggravating the homogenization of the city. With the changes in the economic and social development environment, urban renewal requires a more comprehensive perspective of action. Starting from the perspective of the core of urban management theory, this paper is oriented to culture-enabled urban renewal and takes the urban renewal of Changbin Road Area in Yuzhong District of Chongqing as an example to expound the problems and renewal strategies in its urban renewal, so as to provide references for the urban renewal of other Chinese cities in the new period.

Keywords: Urban management, Urban culture, Urban renewal in mountainous areas, urban renewal

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Authors: Somayeh Zeinali

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A component is generally defined as a piece of executable software with a published interface. Component-based software engineering (CBSE) has become recognized as a new sub-discipline of software engineering. In the component-based software development, components cannot be completely secure and thus easily become vulnerable. Some researchers have investigated this issue and proposed approaches to detect component intrusions or protect distributed components. Software security also refers to the process of creating software that is considered secure.The terms “dependability”, “trustworthiness”, and “survivability” are used interchangeably to describe the properties of software security.

Keywords: component-based software development, component-based software engineering , software security attributes, dependability, component

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Authors: Thendo Mafame

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There is a need for academic research to focus on solving or contributing to solving real-world societal problems. Transdisciplinary research (TDR) provides a way to produce functional and applicable research findings, which can be used to advance developmental causes. This TDR study explores ways in which South Africa’s spatial divide, entrenched through decades of discriminatory planning policies, can be restructured to bring about equitable access to places of employment, business, leisure, and service for previously marginalised South Africans. It does by exploring the potential of the transit-orientated development (TOD) model to restructure and revitalise urban spaces in a collaborative model. The study focuses, through a case study, on the Du Toit station precinct in the town of Stellenbosch, on the peri-urban edge of the city of Cape Town, South Africa. The TOD model is increasingly viewed as an effective strategy for creating sustainable urban redevelopment initiatives, and it has been deployed successfully in other parts of the world. The model, which emphasises development density, diversity of land-use and infrastructure and transformative design, is customisable to a variety of country contexts. This study made use of case study approach with mixed methods to collect and analyse data. Various research methods used include the above-mentioned focus group discussions and interviews, as well as observation, transect walks This research contributes to the professional development of TDR studies that are focused on urbanisation issues.

Keywords: case study, integrated urban development, land-use, stakeholder collaboration, transit-oriented development, transdisciplinary research

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Authors: Paria Soleimani, Arezoo Neshati

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Myocardial infarction is one of the leading causes of ‎death in the world. Some of these deaths occur even before the patient ‎reaches the hospital. Myocardial infarction occurs as a result of ‎impaired blood supply. Because the most of these deaths are due to ‎coronary artery disease, hence the awareness of the warning signs of a ‎heart attack is essential. Some heart attacks are sudden and intense, but ‎most of them start slowly, with mild pain or discomfort, then early ‎detection and successful treatment of these symptoms is vital to save ‎them. Therefore, importance and usefulness of a system designing to ‎assist physicians in the early diagnosis of the acute heart attacks is ‎obvious.‎ The purpose of this study is to determine how well a predictive ‎model would perform based on the only patient-reportable clinical ‎history factors, without using diagnostic tests or physical exams. This ‎type of the prediction model might have application outside of the ‎hospital setting to give accurate advice to patients to influence them to ‎seek care in appropriate situations. For this purpose, the data were ‎collected on 711 heart patients in Iran hospitals. 28 attributes of clinical ‎factors can be reported by patients; were studied. Three logistic ‎regression models were made on the basis of the 28 features to predict ‎the risk of heart attacks. The best logistic regression model in terms of ‎performance had a C-index of 0.955 and with an accuracy of 94.9%. ‎The variables, severe chest pain, back pain, cold sweats, shortness of ‎breath, nausea, and vomiting were selected as the main features.‎

Keywords: Coronary heart disease, Acute heart attacks, Prediction, Logistic ‎regression‎

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Authors: Siriwan Saksiriruthai

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This paper reviews and analyzes impact of foreign migration on innovation for Thailand. With the analysis of decades of industrial and economic development, Thailand has attracted investment by providing cheap labor and low cost of production. Foreign migrant substantially contribute to the development by supplying lower wages with low-skilled workers. However, it is revealed that foreign low-skilled labor influx has a negative effect on innovation. Firms concentrate on benefits from low cost of production and are not motivated to invest for innovation. Therefore, with the emerging of new economies where lower wage laborers are offered, Thailand has to promote innovation to maintain economic development sustainability.

Keywords: migration, innovation, Thailand, foreign

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Authors: Bilal Arshad

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This study aims to analyse the impact of financial globalisation on economic growth, specifically focusing on how it is influenced by the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). In addition, we analyze the influence of IFRS and a country's level of financial development on this relationship. Available literature suggested that this study expands upon previous research on financial globalization, financial development, and economic growth by examining the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on advanced and developed countries from 1996 to 2019. The application of the Generalised Method of Moments estimator reveals that financial globalisation in nations that have adopted the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has a substantial and favourable impact on economic growth. The impact of financial globalisation on economic growth is influenced by the level of financial development.

Keywords: financial globalization, financial development, IFRS, economic growth

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Authors: Alaa Hamed Habib

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The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and associated with systemic inflammation. Inflammation is an important process that follows infection and facilitates the repair of damaged tissue. Polyunsaturated fatty acids play an important role in the inflammatory process. These lipids can target transcription factors to modulate gene expression and protein function. Here, we evaluated whether differences in basal levels of different types of biomarkers can be detected in freshly frozen plasma samples from patients with and without COVID19. Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis showed a decrease in arachidic acid and myristic acid, but an increase in caprylic acid, palmitic acid, and eicosenoic acid in the plasma of COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID19 patients. Multiple chemokines, including IP-10, MCP-1, and MIP-1 beta, were increased in the COVID-19 group compared to the non-COVID-19 group. Similarly, cytokines including IL-1 alpha and IL-8, and cell adhesion and inflammatory response markers including ICAM-1 and E-selectin were greater in the plasma of COVID-19 patients compared to non-COVID-19 patients. A baseline signature of specific polyunsaturated fatty acids, cytokines, and chemokines present in the plasma after COVID-19 viral infection may serve as biomarkers that can be useful in various applications, including determination of the severity of infection, an indication of disease prognosis and consideration for therapeutic options.

Keywords: MARKS, COVID 19, UEVS NON COVIDS, kidneys, nanoparticles

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Authors: Manoela Cabo da Silva, Elton Fernandes, Ricardo Pacheco, Heloisa Pires

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This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.

Keywords: air passenger transport, cointegration, economic growth, GDP, Granger causality

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Authors: Igor Kontorovich, Rina Zazkis

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We present a framework of researcher knowledge ‎development in conducting a study in mathematics education. The key ‎components of the framework are: knowledge germane to conducting a ‎particular study, processes of knowledge accumulation, and catalyzing ‎filters that influence a researcher decision making. The components of ‎the framework originated from a confluence between constructs and ‎theories in Mathematics Education, Higher Education and Sociology. ‎Drawing on a self-reflective interview with a leading researcher in ‎mathematics education, professor Michèle Artigue, we illustrate how ‎the framework can be utilized in data analysis. Criteria for framework ‎evaluation are discussed. ‎

Keywords: community of practice, knowledge development, mathematics education research, researcher knowledge

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Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Using longitudinal data from three waves of Young Lives Study and Ordinary Least Square methods, study has investigated the effect of birth order and arrival of younger siblings on child development in India. Study used child’s height for age z-score, weight for age z-score, BMI for age z-score, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT-Score)c, maths score, Early Grade Reading Assessment Test (ERGA) score, and memory score to measure the physical and cognitive development of child during wave-3. Findings suggest that having a high birth order is detrimental for child development and the gap between adjacent siblings is larger for children late in the birth sequences than early in the birth sequences. Study also reported that not only older siblings but arrival of younger siblings before assessment of test also reduces the development of a child. The effects become stronger in case of female children than male children.

Keywords: height for age z-score, weight for age z-score, BMI for z-score, PPVT score, math score, EGRA score, memory score, birth order, siblings, Young Lives Study, India

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Authors: Matheesha Herath, Ned Kinnear, Bridget Heijkoop, Eliza Bramwell, Alannah Frazetto, Amy Noll, Prajay Patel, Derek Hennessey, Greg Otto, Christopher Dobbins, Tarik Sammour, James Moore

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Background: Important incidental pathology requiring further action is commonly found during appendicectomy, macro- and microscopically. It is unknown whether the acute surgical unit (ASU) model affects the management and disclosure of these findings. Methods: An ASU model was introduced at our institution on 01/08/2012. In this retrospective cohort study, all patients undergoing appendicectomy 2.5 years before (traditional group) or after (ASU group) this date were compared. The primary outcomes were rates of appropriate management of the incidental findings and communication of the findings to the patient and to their general practitioner (GP). Results: 1,214 patients underwent emergency appendicectomy; 465 in the traditional group and 749 in the ASU group. 80 (6.6%) patients (25 and 55 in each respective period) had important incidental findings. There were 24 patients with benign polyps, 15 with neuro-endocrine tumour, 11 with endometriosis, 8 with pelvic inflammatory disease, 8 Enterobius vermicularis infection, 7 with low grade mucinous cystadenoma, 3 with inflammatory bowel disease, 2 with diverticulitis, 2 with tubo-ovarian mass, 1 with secondary appendiceal malignancy and none with primary appendiceal adenocarcinoma. One patient had dual pathologies. There was no difference between the traditional and ASU group with regards to communication of the findings to the patient (p=0.44) and their GP (p=0.27), and there was no difference in the rates of appropriate management (p=0.21). Conclusions: The introduction of an ASU model did not change rates of surgeon-to-patient and surgeon-to-GP communication nor affect rates of appropriate management of important incidental pathology during an appendectomy.

Keywords: acute care surgery, appendicitis, appendicectomy, incidental

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Authors: Eman AbuKhousa, Marwan Z. Bataineh

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The 21^st century higher education and globalization challenge new faculty members to build effective professional networks and partnership with industry in order to accelerate their growth and success. This creates the need for community of practice (CoP)-oriented development approaches that focus on cognitive apprenticeship while considering individual predisposition and future career needs. This work adopts data mining, clustering analysis, and social networking technologies to present the CoP-Network as a virtual space that connects together similar career-aspiration individuals who are socially influenced to join and engage in a process for domain-related knowledge and practice acquisitions. The CoP-Network model can be integrated into higher education to extend traditional graduate and professional development programs.

Keywords: clustering analysis, community of practice, data mining, higher education, new faculty challenges, social network, social influence, professional development

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Authors: Kamran Yazdanbakhsh, Somayeh Mahmoudi

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Multiple sclerosis is the most common chronic disease of the central nervous system associated with demyelination of neurons and several demyelinated parts of the disease encompasses throughout the white matter and affects the sensory and motor function. This study compared the effectiveness of two methods of cognitive therapy and supportive-expressive therapy on the efficacy and quality of life in MS patients. This is an experimental project which has used developed group pretest - posttest and follow-up with 3 groups. The study included all patients with multiple sclerosis in 2013 that were members of the MS Society of Iran in Tehran. The sample included 45 patients with MS that were selected volunteerily of members of the MS society of Iran and randomly divided into three groups and pretest, posttest, and follow-up (three months) for the three groups had been done.The dimensions of quality of life in patients with multiple sclerosis scale, and general self-efficiency scale of Schwarzer and Jerusalem was used for collecting data. The results showed that there was a significant difference between the mean of quality of life scores at pretest, posttest, and follow-up of the experimental groups. There was no significant difference between the mean of quality of life of the experimental groups which means that both groups were effective and had the same effect. There was no significant difference between the mean of self-efficiency scores in control and experimental group in pretest, posttest and follow-up. Thus, by using cognitive and supportive-expressive group therapy we can improve quality of life in MS patients and make great strides in their mental health.

Keywords: cognitive group therapy, life style, MS, self-efficiency, supportive-expressive group therapy

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Authors: Itzel Amaro-Estrada, Eduardo Vergara-Rivera, Virginia Juarez-Flores, Mayra Cobaxin-Cardenas, Rosa Estela Quiroz, Jesus F. Preciado, Sergio Rodriguez-Camarillo

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Bovine anaplasmosis is an infectious, tick-borne disease caused mainly by Anaplasma marginale; typical signs include anemia, fever, abortion, weight loss, decreased milk production, jaundice, and potentially death. Sick bovine can recover when antibiotics are administered; however, it usually remains as carrier for life, being a risk of infection for susceptible cattle. Anaplasma marginale is an obligate intracellular Gram-negative bacterium with genetic composition highly diverse among geographical isolates. There are currently no vaccines fully effective against bovine anaplasmosis; therefore, the economic losses due to disease are present. Vaccine formulation became a hard task for several pathogens as Anaplasma marginale, but peptide-based vaccines are an interesting proposal way to induce specific responses. Phage-displayed peptide libraries have been proved one of the most powerful technologies for identifying specific ligands. Screening of these peptides libraries is also a tool for studying interactions between proteins or peptides. Thus, it has allowed the identification of ligands recognized by polyclonal antiserums, and it has been successful for the identification of relevant epitopes in chronic diseases and toxicological conditions. Protective immune response to bovine anaplasmosis includes high levels of immunoglobulins subclass G2 (IgG2) but not subclass IgG1. Therefore, IgG2 from the serum of protected bovine can be useful to identify ligands, which can be part of an immunogen for cattle. In this work, phage display random peptide library Ph.D. ™ -12 was incubating with IgG2 or blood sera of immunized bovines against A. marginale as targets. After three rounds of biopanning, several candidates were selected for additional analysis. Subsequently, their reactivity with sera immunized against A. marginale, as well as with positive and negative sera to A. marginale was evaluated by immunoassays. A collection of recognized peptides tested by ELISA was generated. More than three hundred phage-peptides were separately evaluated against molecules which were used during panning. At least ten different peptides sequences were determined from their nucleotide composition. In this approach, three phage-peptides were selected by their binding and affinity properties. In the case of the development of vaccines or diagnostic reagents, it is important to evaluate the immunogenic and antigenic properties of the peptides. Immunogenic in vitro and in vivo behavior of peptides will be assayed as synthetic and as phage-peptide for to determinate their vaccine potential. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by grant SEP-CONACYT 252577 given to I. Amaro-Estrada.

Keywords: bovine anaplasmosis, peptides, phage display, veterinary vaccines

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Authors: Raghav Srivastava, Namrata Ramachandran

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Strong sustainability has been, by consensus, imagined as comprising economic and extra-economic variables and cannot be viewed merely in terms of a trade-off between the economic needs of today and the potential left for tomorrow. Specifically, the cultural as well the ecological impacts of development projects on the affected communities should be evaluated, in addition to the economic. In developing and densely populated economies such as India, energy intensive development is seen as a sine qua non – a necessary trade off with ecological conservation. Although social impact assessment has been included as an inalienable part of the Environmental Impact Assessment required to be conducted under Indian law, it seems that the same is unable to meet the ends it seeks to achieve. The dissociation between those bearing the costs of development, and those reaping its benefits, lies at the heart of this failure. This paper attempts to study the various cost–benefit relationships for these minority stakeholders using the proposed Nyamjang Chhu hydroelectric power plant in Tawang District of Arunachal Pradesh (in North-east India) as the chief object of study, and discusses whether the current model of sustainable development is truly sustainable, given the level of social dissociation and disintegration that occurs between affected communities and their environment. The economic allure of hydroelectric projects in the hilly regions of India very rarely results in a proper assessment of their ecological and social externalities. Examining the various issues that have been agitated in the course of litigation over the Nyamjang Chhu hydroelectric project, the authors argue that there is a pressing need to re-evaluate the current Indian model of sustainable development going forward.

Keywords: hydroelectric power, socio-cultural dissociation, sustainable development, trade offs

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Authors: Arup Pramanik

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Most of the cities in the developing countries like Siliguri Municipal Corporation Area (SMCA) and Raiganj Municipality (RM) in West Bengal, India are changing typically in terms of demographic, economic and social relationship due to rapid pace of urbanization. The mushrooming growth of slums in SMCA and RM is the direct consequence of urbanization and migration due to regional imbalance, unbalanced growth process which is posing a serious threat to sustainable development of the country. Almost all the slums happen to be a breeding ground for poverty, negligence, and disease. Unpredictable growth of slums and poverty alleviation has now become a serious challenge to the global and national policy makers for the development of the slum dwellers. The ethical dimension of the poor in the cities like SMCA and RM stands on equal opportunities, inclusive and harmonious living without discrimination of any kind. But, the migrant slum dwellers in SMCA and RM do not possess high skill or education to enable them to find well paid employment in the formal sector and the surplus urban labour force is compelled to generate its own means of employment and survival in the informal sector. The survey data of the households has been analysedin terms of percentage, descriptive statistics which includes mean, Standard Deviation (SD), ANOVA (Mean Difference) etc., to analyse the socio economic variables of the households. The study shows that the migrant labour forces living in the slums are derived from the social security measures in both the municipal areas of SMCA and RM. The urban poor in the cities of SMCA and RM rely heavily on social capital amongst all the capital assets to help them ‘get by’ and ‘get ahead’. Despite, the slum dwellers in the study areas are vulnerable with respect to other determinants of capital assets. It is noteworthy that Indian plans of anti-poverty programmes was in a proper place even after the neo-liberal regime, where the basic idea behind the massive shift of various welfare and service oriented strategy to poverty reduction strategy for the benefit of the urban poor with the trickle down effects. But, the overall impact of the trickledown effect was unsatisfactory. The objective of the Paper is to assess the magnitude of migration and absorption in the urban labour market. Issues relating to capital formation, social security measures and the support of the Welfare State in order to meet 'Sustainable Development Goals'. This study also highlights the quality of life of urban poor migrants in terms of capital formation and livelihoods.

Keywords: migration, slums, labour market, capital formation, social security

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

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Authors: Fatemeh Kourkinejad Gharaei, Tahereh Safari, Zahra Saebinasab

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a set of risk factors associated with cardiovascular diseases, atherosclerosis, and type 2 diabetes. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most important liver disorder in metabolic syndrome. High fructose consumption increases the risk of NAFLD. Eugenol shows anti-thrombotic, insulin-sensitive, fat-reducing effects. This study was designed to investigate the protective role of eugenol in NAFLD caused by metabolic syndrome. Methods: Thirty male Wistar rats were randomly divided into five groups; group 1, drinking water intake animals; group 2, fructose, group 3, fructose+eugenol solvent; group 4, fructose+ eugenol 50mg/kg and group 5, fructose+ eugenol 100mg/kg. At the end of the experiment, after 12 hours of fasting and under anesthesia, blood samples were taken for measurement of fast blood glucose (FBS), SGOT, AGPT, LDL, HDL, cholesterol, triglyceride. Results: FBG significantly increased in group 2 compared to group 1 (p < 0.001); however, it significantly decreased in groups 4 and 5 compared to group 2 (p < 0.05). SGOT and SGPT levels significantly increased in group 2 compared to drinking water alone (p < 0.001). However, SGOT and SGPT levels significantly decreased in groups 4 and 5. MDA and LTDS significantly increased in group 2 compared with drinking water alone (p < 0.01), while MDA and LTDS decreased in 4 and 5 groups compared to group 2 (p < 0.05), which confirms the pathology results related to the liver damage. Conclusion: Eugenol has protective effects on the liver and fat accumulation in liver cells.

Keywords: eugenol, fructose, metabolic syndrome, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Procedia PDF Downloads 124