Search results for: stochastic local search
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 7560

Search results for: stochastic local search

5730 Mesoscopic Defects of Forming and Induced Properties on the Impact of a Composite Glass/Polyester

Authors: Bachir Kacimi, Fatiha Teklal, Arezki Djebbar

Abstract:

Forming processes induce residual deformations on the reinforcement and sometimes lead to mesoscopic defects, which are more recurrent than macroscopic defects during the manufacture of complex structural parts. This study deals with the influence of the fabric shear and buckles defects, which appear during draping processes of composite, on the impact behavior of a glass fiber reinforced polymer. To achieve this aim, we produced several specimens with different amplitude of deformations (shear) and defects on the fabric using a specific bench. The specimens were manufactured using the contact molding and tested with several impact energies. The results and measurements made on tested specimens were compared to those of the healthy material. The results showed that the buckle defects have a negative effect on elastic parameters and revealed a larger damage with significant out-of-plane mode relatively to the healthy composite material. This effect is the consequence of a local fiber impoverishment and a disorganization of the fibrous network, with a reorientation of the fibers following the out-of-plane buckling of the yarns, in the area where the defects are located. For the material with calibrated shear of the reinforcement, the increased local fiber rate due to the shear deformations and the contribution to stiffness of the transverse yarns led to an increase in mechanical properties.

Keywords: Defects, Forming, Impact, Induced properties, Textiles

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5729 Preparation Control Information and Analyzing of Metering Gas System Based of Orifice Plate

Authors: A. Harrouz, A. Benatiallah, O. Harrouz

Abstract:

This paper presents the search for errors in the measurement instruments in a dynamic system of metering liquid or gas and sees the tolerance defined by the international standards and recommendations. We will implement a program on MATLAB/Simulink which is calculated based on the ISO-5167. This program will take the system parameters on considerations such as: the willingness plates, the size of the orifice, the given design conditions, reference conditions, find pressure drop for a given flow, or flow for a loss of given load. The results are considered very good and satisfactory because the errors identified of measuring instruments system are within the margin of error limit by the regulations.

Keywords: analyzing, control, gas, meters system

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5728 Explicit Numerical Approximations for a Pricing Weather Derivatives Model

Authors: Clarinda V. Nhangumbe, Ercília Sousa

Abstract:

Weather Derivatives are financial instruments used to cover non-catastrophic weather events and can be expressed in the form of standard or plain vanilla products, structured or exotics products. The underlying asset, in this case, is the weather index, such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind, and snowfall. The complexity of the Weather Derivatives structure shows the weakness of the Black Scholes framework. Therefore, under the risk-neutral probability measure, the option price of a weather contract can be given as a unique solution of a two-dimensional partial differential equation (parabolic in one direction and hyperbolic in other directions), with an initial condition and subjected to adequate boundary conditions. To calculate the price of the option, one can use numerical methods such as the Monte Carlo simulations and implicit finite difference schemes conjugated with Semi-Lagrangian methods. This paper is proposed two explicit methods, namely, first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with Lax-Wendroff in the parabolic direction and first-order upwind in the hyperbolic direction combined with second-order upwind in the parabolic direction. One of the advantages of these methods is the fact that they take into consideration the boundary conditions obtained from the financial interpretation and deal efficiently with the different choices of the convection coefficients.

Keywords: incomplete markets, numerical methods, partial differential equations, stochastic process, weather derivatives

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5727 Using Mind Mapping and Morphological Analysis within a New Methodology for Teaching Students of Products’ Design

Authors: Kareem Saber

Abstract:

Many products’ design instructors search for how to help students to develop their designs simply by reducing design stages and extrapolating simple design process forms to achieve design creativity. So, the researcher extrapolated a new design process form called “hierarchical design” which reduced design process into three stages and he had tried that methodology on about two hundred students. That trial had led to great results as students could develop their designs which characterized by creativity and innovation. That proved the success and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Keywords: mind mapping, morphological analysis, product design, design process

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
5726 Big Data for Local Decision-Making: Indicators Identified at International Conference on Urban Health 2017

Authors: Dana R. Thomson, Catherine Linard, Sabine Vanhuysse, Jessica E. Steele, Michal Shimoni, Jose Siri, Waleska Caiaffa, Megumi Rosenberg, Eleonore Wolff, Tais Grippa, Stefanos Georganos, Helen Elsey

Abstract:

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Urban Health Equity Assessment and Response Tool (Urban HEART) identify dozens of key indicators to help local decision-makers prioritize and track inequalities in health outcomes. However, presentations and discussions at the International Conference on Urban Health (ICUH) 2017 suggested that additional indicators are needed to make decisions and policies. A local decision-maker may realize that malaria or road accidents are a top priority. However, s/he needs additional health determinant indicators, for example about standing water or traffic, to address the priority and reduce inequalities. Health determinants reflect the physical and social environments that influence health outcomes often at community- and societal-levels and include such indicators as access to quality health facilities, access to safe parks, traffic density, location of slum areas, air pollution, social exclusion, and social networks. Indicator identification and disaggregation are necessarily constrained by available datasets – typically collected about households and individuals in surveys, censuses, and administrative records. Continued advancements in earth observation, data storage, computing and mobile technologies mean that new sources of health determinants indicators derived from 'big data' are becoming available at fine geographic scale. Big data includes high-resolution satellite imagery and aggregated, anonymized mobile phone data. While big data are themselves not representative of the population (e.g., satellite images depict the physical environment), they can provide information about population density, wealth, mobility, and social environments with tremendous detail and accuracy when combined with population-representative survey, census, administrative and health system data. The aim of this paper is to (1) flag to data scientists important indicators needed by health decision-makers at the city and sub-city scale - ideally free and publicly available, and (2) summarize for local decision-makers new datasets that can be generated from big data, with layperson descriptions of difficulties in generating them. We include SDGs and Urban HEART indicators, as well as indicators mentioned by decision-makers attending ICUH 2017.

Keywords: health determinant, health outcome, mobile phone, remote sensing, satellite imagery, SDG, urban HEART

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5725 The Perspective of Waste Frying Oil in São Paulo and Its Dimensions in the Reverse Logistics of the Production of Biodiesel

Authors: Max Filipe Goncalves, Alessandra Concilio, Rodrigo Shimada

Abstract:

The waste frying oil is highly pollutant when disposed incorrectly in the environment. Is necessary search of the Reverse Logistics to identify how can be structure to return the waste like this to productive chain and to be used in the new process. In this context, the objective of this paper is to analyze the perspective of the waste frying oil in São Paulo, and its dimensions in the production of biodiesel. Subjacent factors such as the agents, motivators and legal aspects were analyzed to demonstrate it. Then, the SWOT matrix was built with the aspects observed and the forces, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the reverse logistic chain in São Paulo.

Keywords: biodiesel, perspective, reverse logistic, WFO

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5724 Economic Analysis of Cassava Value Chain by Farmers in Ilesa West Local Government Area of Osun State

Authors: Maikasuwa Mohammed Abubakar, Okebiorun Ola, M. H. Sidi, Ala Ahmed Ladan, Ango Aabdullahi Kamba

Abstract:

The study examines the economic analysis of cassava value chain by farmers in Ilesa West Local Government Area of Osun State. Simple random sampling technique was used to collect data from 200 respondents from purposively selected wards in the L.G.A. The data collected were analyzed using budgetary analysis and value addition model. The result shows that an average total cost incurred by the input dealers was ₦9,062,127.74 while the average net profit realized was ₦1,038,102.40. Other actors such as producers, processors and marketers incurred an average total cost of ₦23,324.00, ₦130,177.00 and ₦523,755.00 per production season, respectively and the average net profit realized was ₦102,614.00 for cassava producers, ₦51,131.00 for cassava processors and ₦79,045.00 for cassava marketers during cassava production season. Further analysis shows the rate of investment for cassava input dealers was ₦0.1, for cassava producers was ₦4.4, for cassava processors were ₦0.40 and for cassava marketers was ₦0.20. This indicated that rate of return on cassava was higher in cassava production than in others corridors along the value chain of cassava. However, value added the cassava producers (₦102,536.16/season) was the highest when compared with value added by cassava processors (₦51,853.82/season) and cassava marketers (₦100,885.56/season).

Keywords: Cassava, value chain, Ilesa West, Nigeria

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5723 Pathways and Mechanisms of Lymphocytes Emigration from Newborn Thymus

Authors: Olena Grygorieva

Abstract:

Nowadays mechanisms of thymocytes emigration from the thymus to the periphery are investigated actively. We have proposed a hypothesis of thymocytes’ migration from the thymus through lymphatic vessels during periodical short-term local edema. By morphological, hystochemical methods we have examined quantity of lymphocytes, epitelioreticulocytes, mast cells, blood and lymphatic vessels in morpho-functional areas of rats’ thymuses during the first week after birth in 4 hours interval. In newborn and beginning from 8 hour after birth every 12 hours specific density of the thymus, absolute quantity of microcirculatory vessels, especially of lymphatic ones, lymphcyte-epithelial index, quantity of mast cells and their degranulative forms increase. Structure of extracellular matrix, intrathymical microenvironment and lymphocytes’ adhesive properties change. Absolute quantity of small lymphocytes in thymic cortex changes wavy. All these changes are straightly expressed from 0 till 2, from 12 till 16, from 108 till 120 hours of postnatal life. During this periods paravasal lymphatic vessels are stuffed with lymphocytes, i.e. discrete migration of lymphocytes from the thymus occurs. After rapid edema reduction, quantity of lymphatic vessels decrease, they become empty. Therefore, in the thymus of newborn periodical short-term local edema is observed, on its top discrete migration of lymphocytes from the thymus occurs.

Keywords: lymphocytes, lymphatic vessels, mast cells, thymus

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5722 Alkali Silica Reaction Mitigation and Prevention Measures for Arkansas Local Aggregates

Authors: Amin Kamal Akhnoukh, Lois Zaki Kamel, Magued Mourad Barsoum

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to mitigate and prevent the alkali silica reactivity (ASR) in highway construction projects. ASR is a deleterious reaction initiated when the silica content of the aggregate reacts with alkali hydroxides in cement in the presence of relatively high moisture content. The ASR results in the formation of an expansive white colored gel-like material which forms the destructive tensile stresses inside hardened concrete. In this research, different types of local aggregates available in the State of Arkansas were mixed and mortar bars were poured according to the ASTM specifications. Mortar bars expansion was measured versus time and aggregates with potential ASR problems were detected. Different types of supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) were used in remixing mortar bars with highly reactive aggregates. Length changes for remixed bars proved that different types of SCMs can be successfully used in reducing the expansive effect of ASR. SCMs percentage by weight is highly dependent on the SCM type. The result of this study will help avoiding future losses due to ASR cracking in construction project and reduce the maintenance, repair, and replacement budgets required for highways network.

Keywords: alkali silica reaction, aggregates, misture, cracks, Mortar Bar Test, supplementary cementitious materials

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5721 Tourism Potentials of Ikogosi Warm Spring in Nigeria

Authors: A.I. Adeyemo

Abstract:

Ikogosi warm spring results from a complex mechanical and chemical forces that generates internal heat in the rocks forming a warm and cold water at the same geographical location at the same time. From time immemorial, the local community had thought, it to be the work of a deity, and they were worshipping the spring. This complex phenomenon has been a source of tourist attraction to both local and international tourists over the years. 450 copies of a structured questionnaire were given out, and a total of 500 respondents were interviewed. The result showed that ikogosi warm spring impacts the community positively by providing employment to the teeming youths, and it provides income to traders. The result shows that 66% of the respondents confirmed that it increased their income and that transportation business increased more than 73%.the level of enlightenment and socialization increased greatly in the community. However, it also impacted the community negatively as it increased crime rates such as stealing, kidnapping, prostitution, and unwanted pregnancy among the secondary school girls and the other teenagers. Generally, 50% of the respondents reported that tourism in the warm spring results in insecurity in the community. IT also increased environmental problems such as noise and waste pollutions; the continuous movement on the land results in soil compartment leading to erosion, and leaching, which also results in loss of soil fertility. It was concluded that if the potentials of the spring are fully tapped, it will be a good avenue for income generation to the country.

Keywords: community, Ikogosi, revenue, warm spring

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5720 The Play Street: A Community Treat for Psychosocial Replete

Authors: Benjamin Cramer, Josephine Chau, Helen Little, Erica Randle

Abstract:

Play Streets provide a safe and open space for children to play and adults to socialize by closing residential streets to through traffic. While research on Play Streets has typically focused on physical activity outcomes in children, there is limited research on the psychosocial health externalities for the wider community. Charles Sturt, a local government area in Adelaide, South Australia, has been hosting Play Streets for several years. The current study is a mixed-methods evaluation of the Charles Sturt Play Streets, concerned with the perceived psychological and social impacts that Play Streets impact on the community. A combination of semi-structured interviews of Play Street organizers and participants will be conducted and analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Pre-existing survey data will also be analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively to triangulate the findings of the qualitative interviews. The implications of this research are far-reaching, from informing local councils of any additional health benefits of Play Streets, expanding the growing literature on Play Streets beyond childhood physical activity, informing the development of city infrastructure, and advancing the Sustainability Development Goals of Good Health and Wellbeing, Reduced Inequalities, and Sustainable Cities and Communities.

Keywords: play streets, mental health, social health, community health

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5719 A Comparative Study of Optimization Techniques and Models to Forecasting Dengue Fever

Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

Abstract:

Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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5718 Adapting Cyber Physical Production Systems to Small and Mid-Size Manufacturing Companies

Authors: Yohannes Haile, Dipo Onipede, Jr., Omar Ashour

Abstract:

The main thrust of our research is to determine Industry 4.0 readiness of small and mid-size manufacturing companies in our region and assist them to implement Cyber Physical Production System (CPPS) capabilities. Adopting CPPS capabilities will help organizations realize improved quality, order delivery, throughput, new value creation, and reduced idle time of machines and work centers of their manufacturing operations. The key metrics for the assessment include the level of intelligence, internal and external connections, responsiveness to internal and external environmental changes, capabilities for customization of products with reference to cost, level of additive manufacturing, automation, and robotics integration, and capabilities to manufacture hybrid products in the near term, where near term is defined as 0 to 18 months. In our initial evaluation of several manufacturing firms which are profitable and successful in what they do, we found low level of Physical-Digital-Physical (PDP) loop in their manufacturing operations, whereas 100% of the firms included in this research have specialized manufacturing core competencies that have differentiated them from their competitors. The level of automation and robotics integration is low to medium range, where low is defined as less than 30%, and medium is defined as 30 to 70% of manufacturing operation to include automation and robotics. However, there is a significant drive to include these capabilities at the present time. As it pertains to intelligence and connection of manufacturing systems, it is observed to be low with significant variance in tying manufacturing operations management to Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). Furthermore, it is observed that the integration of additive manufacturing in general, 3D printing, in particular, to be low, but with significant upside of integrating it in their manufacturing operations in the near future. To hasten the readiness of the local and regional manufacturing companies to Industry 4.0 and transitions towards CPPS capabilities, our working group (ADMAR Working Group) in partnership with our university have been engaged with the local and regional manufacturing companies. The goal is to increase awareness, share know-how and capabilities, initiate joint projects, and investigate the possibility of establishing the Center for Cyber Physical Production Systems Innovation (C2P2SI). The center is intended to support the local and regional university-industry research of implementing intelligent factories, enhance new value creation through disruptive innovations, the development of hybrid and data enhanced products, and the creation of digital manufacturing enterprises. All these efforts will enhance local and regional economic development and educate students that have well developed knowledge and applications of cyber physical manufacturing systems and Industry 4.0.

Keywords: automation, cyber-physical production system, digital manufacturing enterprises, disruptive innovation, new value creation, physical-digital-physical loop

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5717 Pregnancy and Birth Outcomes of Single versus Multiple Embryo Transfer in Gestational Surrogacy Arrangements: A Systematic Review

Authors: Jutharat Attawet, Alex Y. Wang, Cindy M. Farquhar, Elizabeth A. Sullivan

Abstract:

Background: Adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes of multiple pregnancies resulting from multiple embryo transfers (ET) has become significant concerns. This is particularly relevant for gestational carriers since they usually do not have infertility issues. Single embryo transfer (SET) therefore has been encouraged to assist reproductive technology (ART) practice in order to reduce multiple pregnancies. Objectives: This systematic review aims to investigate the pregnancy and birth outcomes of SET and multiple ET in surrogacy arrangements. Search methods: This study is a systematic review. Electronic databases were searched from CINAHL, Medline, Embase, Scopus and ProQuest for studies from 1980 to 2017. Cross-references and national ART reports were also manual searchings. Articles without restriction of English language and study types were accessed. Carrier cycles involving in SET and multiple ET were identified in database searching. The main outcome measures including clinical pregnancy, live delivery and multiple deliveries per gestational carrier cycle were compared between SET and multiple ET. Mantel-Haenzel risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), using the numbers of outcome events in SET and multiple ET of each study were calculated suing RevMan5.3. Outcomes: The search returned 97 articles of which 5 met the inclusion criteria. Approximately 50% of carrier cycles were transferred a single embryo and 50% were transferred more than one embryo. The clinical pregnancy rate (CPR) was 39% for SET and 53% for multiple ET, which was not significantly different with RR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.67-1.03). The live delivery rate was 33% for SET and 57% for multiple ET which was not significantly different with RR = 0.78 (95% CI: 0.61-1.00). The multiple delivery rate per carrier was greater risks in the multiple ET carrier cycles (RR =0.4, 95% CI: 0.01-0.26). There were 104 sets of twins (including one set of twins selectively reduced from triplets to twins) and 1 set of triples in the multiple ET carrier cycle. In the SET carrier cycles, there were 2 sets of twins. Significance of the study: SET should be advocated among surrogate carriers to prevent multiple pregnancies and subsequent adverse outcomes for both carrier and baby. Surrogacy practice should be reviewed and surrogate carriers should be fully informed of the risk of adverse maternal and birth outcome of multiple pregnancies due to multiple embryo transfers.

Keywords: assisted reproduction, birth outcomes, carrier, gestational surrogacy, multiple embryo transfer, multiple pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes, single embryo transfer, surrogate mother, systematic review

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5716 Development of Peptide Inhibitors against Dengue Virus Infection by in Silico Design

Authors: Aussara Panya, Nunghathai Sawasdee, Mutita Junking, Chatchawan Srisawat, Kiattawee Choowongkomon, Pa-Thai Yenchitsomanus

Abstract:

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global public health problem with approximately 100 million infected cases a year. Presently, there is no approved vaccine or effective drug available; therefore, the development of anti-DENV drug is urgently needed. The clinical reports revealing the positive association between the disease severity and viral titer has been reported previously suggesting that the anti-DENV drug therapy can possibly ameliorate the disease severity. Although several anti-DENV agents showed inhibitory activities against DENV infection, to date none of them accomplishes clinical use in the patients. The surface envelope (E) protein of DENV is critical for the viral entry step, which includes attachment and membrane fusion; thus, the blocking of envelope protein is an attractive strategy for anti-DENV drug development. To search the safe anti-DENV agent, this study aimed to search for novel peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the targeting of E protein using a structure-based in silico design. Two selected strategies has been used including to identify the peptide inhibitor which interfere the membrane fusion process whereby the hydrophobic pocket on the E protein was the target, the destabilization of virion structure organization through the disruption of the interaction between the envelope and membrane proteins, respectively. The molecular docking technique has been used in the first strategy to search for the peptide inhibitors that specifically bind to the hydrophobic pocket. The second strategy, the peptide inhibitor has been designed to mimic the ectodomain portion of membrane protein to disrupt the protein-protein interaction. The designed peptides were tested for the effects on cell viability to measure the toxic to peptide to the cells and their inhibitory assay to inhibit the DENV infection in Vero cells. Furthermore, their antiviral effects on viral replication, intracellular protein level and viral production have been observed by using the qPCR, cell-based flavivirus immunodetection and immunofluorescence assay. None of tested peptides showed the significant effect on cell viability. The small peptide inhibitors achieved from molecular docking, Glu-Phe (EF), effectively inhibited DENV infection in cell culture system. Its most potential effect was observed for DENV2 with a half maximal inhibition concentration (IC50) of 96 μM, but it partially inhibited other serotypes. Treatment of EF at 200 µM on infected cells also significantly reduced the viral genome and protein to 83.47% and 84.15%, respectively, corresponding to the reduction of infected cell numbers. An additional approach was carried out by using peptide mimicking membrane (M) protein, namely MLH40. Treatment of MLH40 caused the reduction of foci formation in four individual DENV serotype (DENV1-4) with IC50 of 24-31 μM. Further characterization suggested that the MLH40 specifically blocked viral attachment to host membrane, and treatment with 100 μM could diminish 80% of viral attachment. In summary, targeting the hydrophobic pocket and M-binding site on the E protein by using the peptide inhibitors could inhibit DENV infection. The results provide proof of-concept for the development of antiviral therapeutic peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the use of a structure-based design targeting conserved viral protein.

Keywords: dengue virus, dengue virus infection, drug design, peptide inhibitor

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5715 Automatic Intelligent Analysis of Malware Behaviour

Authors: Hermann Dornhackl, Konstantin Kadletz, Robert Luh, Paul Tavolato

Abstract:

In this paper we describe the use of formal methods to model malware behaviour. The modelling of harmful behaviour rests upon syntactic structures that represent malicious procedures inside malware. The malicious activities are modelled by a formal grammar, where API calls’ components are the terminals and the set of API calls used in combination to achieve a goal are designated non-terminals. The combination of different non-terminals in various ways and tiers make up the attack vectors that are used by harmful software. Based on these syntactic structures a parser can be generated which takes execution traces as input for pattern recognition.

Keywords: malware behaviour, modelling, parsing, search, pattern matching

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5714 Socio-Economic Effects of Micro-Credit on Small-Scale Poultry Farmers’ Livelihood in Ado Odo-Ota Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria

Authors: E. O. Fakoya, B. G. Abiona, W. O. Oyediran, A. M. Omoare

Abstract:

This study examined the socio-economic effects of micro-credit on small scale poultry farmers’ livelihood in Ado Odo-Ota Local Government area of Ogun State. Purposive sampling method was used to select eighty (80) small scale poultry farmers that benefited in micro credit. Interview guide was used to obtain information on the respondents’ socio-economic characteristic, sources of micro-credit and the effects of micro-credit on their livelihood. The results revealed that most of the respondents (77.50 %) were males while half (40.00%) of the respondents were between the ages of 31-40 years. A high proportion (72.50%) of the respondents had formal education. The major sources of micro credit to small scale poultry farmers were cooperative society (47.50%) and personal savings (20.00%). The findings also revealed that micro-credit had positive effect on the assets and livelihoods of small scale poultry farmers’ livelihood. Results of t-test analysis showed a significant difference between the effects before and after micro-credit on small-scale poultry farmers’ Livelihood at p < 0.05. The study recommends that formal lending institution should be given necessary support by government to enable poultry farmers have access to credit facilities in the study area.

Keywords: micro-credit, effects, livelihood, poultry farmers, socio-economic, small scale

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5713 Facilitating Primary Care Practitioners to Improve Outcomes for People With Oropharyngeal Dysphagia Living in the Community: An Ongoing Realist Review

Authors: Caroline Smith, Professor Debi Bhattacharya, Sion Scott

Abstract:

Introduction: Oropharyngeal Dysphagia (OD) effects around 15% of older people, however it is often unrecognised and under diagnosed until they are hospitalised. There is a need for primary care healthcare practitioners (HCPs) to assume a proactive role in identifying and managing OD to prevent adverse outcomes such as aspiration pneumonia. Understanding the determinants of primary care HCPs undertaking this new behaviour provides the intervention targets for addressing. This realist review, underpinned by the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF), aims to synthesise relevant literature and develop programme theories to understand what interventions work, how they work and under what circumstances to facilitate HCPs to prevent harm from OD. Combining realist methodology with behavioural science will permit conceptualisation of intervention components as theoretical behavioural constructs, thus informing the design of a future behaviour change intervention. Furthermore, through the TDF’s linkage to a taxonomy of behaviour change techniques, we will identify corresponding behaviour change techniques to include in this intervention. Methods & analysis: We are following the five steps for undertaking a realist review: 1) clarify the scope 2) Literature search 3) appraise and extract data 4) evidence synthesis 5) evaluation. We have searched Medline, Google scholar, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Scopus and PsycINFO databases. We are obtaining additional evidence through grey literature, snowball sampling, lateral searching and consulting the stakeholder group. Literature is being screened, evaluated and synthesised in Excel and Nvivo. We will appraise evidence in relation to its relevance and rigour. Data will be extracted and synthesised according to its relation to Initial programme theories (IPTs). IPTs were constructed after the preliminary literature search, informed by the TDF and with input from a stakeholder group of patient and public involvement advisors, general practitioners, speech and language therapists, geriatricians and pharmacists. We will follow the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) quality and publication standards to report study results. Results: In this ongoing review our search has identified 1417 manuscripts with approximately 20% progressing to full text screening. We inductively generated 10 IPTs that hypothesise practitioners require: the knowledge to spot the signs and symptoms of OD; the skills to provide initial advice and support; and access to resources in their working environment to support them conducting these new behaviours. We mapped the 10 IPTs to 8 TDF domains and then generated a further 12 IPTs deductively using domain definitions to fulfil the remaining 6 TDF domains. Deductively generated IPTs broadened our thinking to consider domains such as ‘Emotion,’ ‘Optimism’ and ‘Social Influence’, e.g. If practitioners perceive that patients, carers and relatives expect initial advice and support, then they will be more likely to provide this, because they will feel obligated to do so. After prioritisation with stakeholders using a modified nominal group technique approach, a maximum of 10 IPTs will progress to test against the literature.

Keywords: behaviour change, deglutition disorders, primary healthcare, realist review

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5712 The Influence of Job Recognition and Job Motivation on Organizational Commitment in Public Sector: The Mediation Role of Employee Engagement

Authors: Muhammad Tayyab, Saba Saira

Abstract:

It is an established fact that organizations across the globe consider employees as their assets and try to advance their well-being. However, the local firms of developing countries are mostly profit oriented and do not have much concern about their employees’ engagement or commitment. Like other developing countries, the local organizations of Pakistan are also less concerned about the well-being of their employees. Especially public sector organizations lack concern regarding engagement, satisfaction or commitment of the employees. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impact of job recognition and job motivation on organizational commitment in the mediation role of employee engagement. The data were collected from land record officers of board of revenue, Punjab, Pakistan. Structured questionnaire was used to collect data through physically visiting land record officers and also through the internet. A total of 318 land record officers’ responses were finalized to perform data analysis. The data were analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling technique. The findings revealed that job recognition and job motivation have direct as well as indirect positive and significant impact on organizational commitment. The limitations, practical implications and future research indications are also explained.

Keywords: job motivation, job recognition, employee engagement, employee commitment, public sector, land record officers

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5711 Community-based Mapping as a Planning Tool; Examples from Pakistan

Authors: Noman Ahmed, Fariha Tahseen

Abstract:

Since several decades, unplanned urbanization and rapid growth of informal settlements have evolved and increased in size and number. Large cities such as Karachi have been impacted with sprawl and rising share of unplanned settlements where poor communities reside. Threats of eviction, deteriorating law and order situation, lack of essential amenities and infrastructure, extortion and bullying from local and non-local musclemen and feeble response of government agencies towards their development needs are some predicaments. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have caused important interventions in such locations. Appraisal of the community-based mapping as a tool in supporting the development work in less privileged areas in Karachi has been the objective of this research. The Orangi Pilot Project (OPP), under the leadership of its slain director Perween Rahman had a significant role to play in developing and extending this approach in low income locations in Karachi and beyond. The paper investigates the application of mapping in the process of peri urban land invasion causing rapid transformation of traditional settlements in Karachi. Mixed methodology components comprising literature review, archival research, and unstructured interviews with key informants and case studies have been used.

Keywords: squatters (katchi abadis), land grabbing, community empowerment, housing rights, mapping, infrastructure development

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5710 Understanding Face-to-Face Household Gardens’ Profitability and Local Economic Opportunity Pathways

Authors: Annika Freudenberger, Sin Sokhong

Abstract:

In just a few years, the Face-to-Face Victory Gardens Project (F2F) in Cambodia has developed a high-impact project that has provided immediate and tangible benefits to local families. This has been accomplished with a relatively hands-off approach that relies on households’ own motivation and personal investments of time and resources -which is both unique and impressive in the landscape of NGO and government initiatives in the area. Households have been growing food both for their own consumption and to sell or exchange. Not all targeted beneficiaries are equally motivated and maximizing their involvement, but there is a clear subset of households -particularly those who serve as facilitators- whose circumstances have been transformed as a result of F2F. A number of household factors and contextual economic factors affect families’ income generation opportunities. All the households we spoke with became involved with F2F with the goal of selling some proportion of their produce (i.e., not exclusively for their own consumption). For some, this income is marginal and supplemental to their core household income; for others, it is substantial and transformative. Some engage directly with customers/buyers in their immediate community, while others sell in larger nearby markets, and others link up with intermediary vendors. All struggle, to a certain extent, to compete in a local economy flooded with cheap produce imported from large-scale growers in neighboring provinces, Thailand, and Vietnam, although households who grow and sell herbs and greens popular in Khmer cuisine have found a stronger local market. Some are content with the scale of their garden, the income they make, and the current level of effort required to maintain it; others would like to expand but are faced with land constraints and water management challenges. Households making a substantial income from selling their products have achieved success in different ways, making it difficult to pinpoint a clear “model” for replication. Within our small sample size of interviewees, it seems as though the families with a clear passion for their gardens and high motivation to work hard to bring their products to market have succeeded in doing so. Khmer greens and herbs have been the most successful; they are not high-value crops, but they are fairly easy to grow, and there is a constant demand. These crops are also not imported as much, so prices are more stable than those of crops such as long beans. Although we talked to a limited number of individuals, it also appears as though successful families either restricted their crops to those that would grow well in drought or flood conditions (depending on which they are affected by most); or benefit already from water management infrastructure such as water tanks which helps them diversify their crops and helps them build their resilience.

Keywords: food security, Victory Gardens, nutrition, Cambodia

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5709 Achieving Sustainable Lifestyles Based on the Spiritual Teaching and Values of Buddhism from Lumbini, Nepal

Authors: Purna Prasad Acharya, Madhav Karki, Sunta B. Tamang, Uttam Basnet, Chhatra Katwal

Abstract:

The paper outlines the idea behind achieving sustainable lifestyles based on the spiritual values and teachings of Lord Buddha. This objective is to be achieved by spreading the tenets and teachings of Buddhism throughout the Asia Pacific region and the world from the sacred birth place of Buddha - Lumbini, Nepal. There is an urgent need to advance the relevance of Buddhist philosophy in tackling the triple planetary crisis of climate change, nature’s decline, and pollution. Today, the world is facing an existential crisis due to the above crises, exasperated by hunger, poverty and armed conflict. To address multi-dimensional impacts, the global communities have to adopt simple life styles that respect nature and universal human values. These were the basic teachings of Gautam Buddha. Lumbini, Nepal has the moral obligation to widely disseminate Buddha’s teaching to the world and receive constant feedback and learning to develop human and ecosystem resilience by molding the lifestyles of current and future generations through adaptive learning and simplicity across the geography and nationality based on spirituality and environmental stewardship. By promoting Buddhism, Nepal has developed a pro-nature tourism industry that focuses on both its spiritual and bio-cultural heritage. Nepal is a country rich in ancient wisdom, where sages have sought knowledge, practiced meditation, and followed spiritual paths for thousands of years. It can spread the teachings of Buddha in a way people can search for and adopt ways to live, creating harmony with nature. Using tools of natural sciences and social sciences, the team will package knowledge and share the idea of community well-being within the framework of environmental sustainability, social harmony and universal respect for nature and people in a more holistic manner. This notion takes into account key elements of sustainable development such as food-energy-water-biodiversity interconnections, environmental conservation, ecological integrity, ecosystem health, community resiliency, adaptation capacity, and indigenous culture, knowledge and values. This inclusive concept has garnered a strong network of supporters locally, regionally, and internationally. The key objectives behind this concept are: a) to leverage expertise and passion of a network of global collaborators to advance research, education, and policy outreach in the areas of human sustainability based on lifestyle change using the power of spirituality and Buddha’s teaching, resilient lifestyles, and adaptive living; b) help develop creative short courses for multi-disciplinary teaching in educational institutions worldwide in collaboration with Lumbini Buddha University and other relevant partners in Nepal; c) help build local and regional intellectual and cultural teaching and learning capacity by improving professional collaborations to promote nature based and Buddhist value-based lifestyles by connecting Lumbini to Nepal’s rich nature; d) promote research avenues to provide policy relevant knowledge that is creative, innovative, as well as practical and locally viable; and e) connect local research and outreach work with academic and cultural partners in South Korea so as to open up Lumbini based Buddhist heritage and Nepal’s Karnali River basin’s unique natural landscape to Korean scholars and students to promote sustainable lifestyles leading to human living in harmony with nature.

Keywords: triple planetary crisis, spirituality, sustainable lifestyles, living in harmony with nature, resilience

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5708 A Systematic Review of Business Strategies Which Can Make District Heating a Platform for Sustainable Development of Other Sectors

Authors: Louise Ödlund, Danica Djuric Ilic

Abstract:

Sustainable development includes many challenges related to energy use, such as (1) developing flexibility on the demand side of the electricity systems due to an increased share of intermittent electricity sources (e.g., wind and solar power), (2) overcoming economic challenges related to an increased share of renewable energy in the transport sector, (3) increasing efficiency of the biomass use, (4) increasing utilization of industrial excess heat (e.g., approximately two thirds of the energy currently used in EU is lost in the form of excess and waste heat). The European Commission has been recognized DH technology as of essential importance to reach sustainability. Flexibility in the fuel mix, and possibilities of industrial waste heat utilization, combined heat, and power (CHP) production and energy recovery through waste incineration, are only some of the benefits which characterize DH technology. The aim of this study is to provide an overview of the possible business strategies which would enable DH to have an important role in future sustainable energy systems. The methodology used in this study is a systematic literature review. The study includes a systematic approach where DH is seen as a part of an integrated system that consists of transport , industrial-, and electricity sectors as well. The DH technology can play a decisive role in overcoming the sustainability challenges related to our energy use. The introduction of biofuels in the transport sector can be facilitated by integrating biofuel and DH production in local DH systems. This would enable the development of local biofuel supply chains and reduce biofuel production costs. In this way, DH can also promote the development of biofuel production technologies that are not yet developed. Converting energy for running the industrial processes from fossil fuels and electricity to DH (above all biomass and waste-based DH) and delivering excess heat from industrial processes to the local DH systems would make the industry less dependent on fossil fuels and fossil fuel-based electricity, as well as the increasing energy efficiency of the industrial sector and reduce production costs. The electricity sector would also benefit from these measures. Reducing the electricity use in the industry sector while at the same time increasing the CHP production in the local DH systems would (1) replace fossil-based electricity production with electricity in biomass- or waste-fueled CHP plants and reduce the capacity requirements from the national electricity grid (i.e., it would reduce the pressure on the bottlenecks in the grid). Furthermore, by operating their central controlled heat pumps and CHP plants depending on the intermittent electricity production variation, the DH companies may enable an increased share of intermittent electricity production in the national electricity grid.

Keywords: energy system, district heating, sustainable business strategies, sustainable development

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5707 An Architectural Approach for the Dynamic Adaptation of Services-Based Software

Authors: Mohhamed Yassine Baroudi, Abdelkrim Benammar, Fethi Tarik Bendimerad

Abstract:

This paper proposes software architecture for dynamical service adaptation. The services are constituted by reusable software components. The adaptation’s goal is to optimize the service function of their execution context. For a first step, the context will take into account just the user needs but other elements will be added. A particular feature in our proposition is the profiles that are used not only to describe the context’s elements but also the components itself. An adapter analyzes the compatibility between all these profiles and detects the points where the profiles are not compatibles. The same Adapter search and apply the possible adaptation solutions: component customization, insertion, extraction or replacement.

Keywords: adaptative service, software component, service, dynamic adaptation

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5706 SAR and B₁ Considerations for Multi-Nuclear RF Body Coils

Authors: Ria Forner

Abstract:

Introduction: Due to increases in the SNR at 7T and above, it becomes more favourable to make use of X-nuclear imaging. Integrated body coils tuned to 120MHz for 31P, 79MHz for 23Na, and 75 MHz for 13C at 7T were simulated with a human male, female, or child body model to assess strategies of use for metabolic MR imaging in the body. Methods: B1 and SAR efficiencies in the heart, liver, spleen, and kidneys were assessed using numerical simulations over the three frequencies with phase shimming. Results: B1+ efficiency is highly variable over the different organs, particularly for the highest frequency; however, local SAR efficiency remains relatively constant over the frequencies in all subjects. Although the optimal phase settings vary, one generic phase setting can be identified for each frequency at which the penalty in B1+ is at a max of 10%. Discussion: The simulations provide practical strategies for power optimization, B1 management, and maintaining safety. As expected, the B1 field is similar at 75MHz and 79MHz, but reduced at 120MHz. However, the B1 remains relatively constant when normalised by the square root of the peak local SAR. This is in contradiction to generalized SAR considerations of 1H MRI at different field strengths, which is defined by global SAR instead. Conclusion: Although the B1 decreases with frequency, SAR efficiency remains constant throughout the investigated frequency range. It is possible to shim the body coil to obtain a maximum of 10% extra B1+ in a specific organ in a body when compared to a generic setting.

Keywords: birdcage, multi-nuclear, B1 shimming, 7 Tesla MRI, liver, kidneys, heart, spleen

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5705 Valorization of Lignocellulosic Wastes– Evaluation of Its Toxicity When Used in Adsorption Systems

Authors: Isabel Brás, Artur Figueirinha, Bruno Esteves, Luísa P. Cruz-Lopes

Abstract:

The agriculture lignocellulosic by-products are receiving increased attention, namely in the search for filter materials that retain contaminants from water. These by-products, specifically almond and hazelnut shells are abundant in Portugal once almond and hazelnuts production is a local important activity. Hazelnut and almond shells have as main constituents lignin, cellulose and hemicelluloses, water soluble extractives and tannins. Along the adsorption of heavy metals from contaminated waters, water soluble compounds can leach from shells and have a negative impact in the environment. Usually, the chemical characterization of treated water by itself may not show environmental impact caused by the discharges when parameters obey to legal quality standards for water. Only biological systems can detect the toxic effects of the water constituents. Therefore, the evaluation of toxicity by biological tests is very important when deciding the suitability for safe water discharge or for irrigation applications. The main purpose of the present work was to assess the potential impacts of waters after been treated for heavy metal removal by hazelnut and almond shells adsorption systems, with short term acute toxicity tests. To conduct the study, water at pH 6 with 25 mg.L-1 of lead, was treated with 10 g of shell per litre of wastewater, for 24 hours. This procedure was followed for each bark. Afterwards the water was collected for toxicological assays; namely bacterial resistance, seed germination, Lemna minor L. test and plant grow. The effect in isolated bacteria strains was determined by disc diffusion method and the germination index of seed was evaluated using lettuce, with temperature and humidity germination control for 7 days. For aquatic higher organism, Lemnas were used with 4 days contact time with shell solutions, in controlled light and temperature. For terrestrial higher plants, biomass production was evaluated after 14 days of tomato germination had occurred in soil, with controlled humidity, light and temperature. Toxicity tests of water treated with shells revealed in some extent effects in the tested organisms, with the test assays showing a close behaviour as the control, leading to the conclusion that its further utilization may not be considered to create a serious risk to the environment.

Keywords: lignocellulosic wastes, adsorption, acute toxicity tests, risk assessment

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5704 Managing the Architectural Heritage of Tripoli-Libya: The Red Castle as a Case Study

Authors: Eman Mohamed Ali Elalwani

Abstract:

The Libyan heritage buildings are currently facing a number of crises that pose a threat to their structural integrity, functionality, and overall performance. One of the challenges pertains to the loss of community identity, which has arisen due to the lack of awareness and unconscious behavior of the residents. An additional issue arises from inadequate site management practices, including the implementation of modern techniques and innovative building materials that are incompatible with structural elements, resulting in the deformation of certain sections of the buildings. The security concerns of the city, along with the ongoing civil conflict, fostered a conducive environment for violations, resulting in the vandalism of certain monuments in the city. However, the degradation of this valuable heritage is mainly attributed to the city's neglect and pollution. The elevated groundwater level resulting from pollution has led to erosion in the building's foundations. Mitigating these negative consequences through strategic interventions and rehabilitation is required to preserve this treasure. In order to assist the local community in recovering from those crises, this paper stated a viable strategy for promoting preservation efforts that aimed at safeguarding the heritage sites while also providing guidance to decision-makers and the local community on how to avoid these crises, preserve, enhance, and recognize the significance of the Libyan heritage.

Keywords: cultural heritage, historical buildings, Tripoli’s old city, Red Castle, crises, preservation

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5703 Factors Associated with Risky Sexual Behaviour in Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Cambodia: A Systematic Review

Authors: Farwa Rizvi, Joanne Williams, Humaira Maheen, Elizabeth Hoban

Abstract:

There is an increase in risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in adolescent girls and young women aged 15 to 24 years in Cambodia, which negatively affects their reproductive health by increasing the risk of contracting sexually transmitted infections and unintended pregnancies. Risky sexual behavior includes ‘having sex at an early age, having multiple sexual partners, having sex while under the influence of alcohol or drugs, and unprotected sexual behaviors’. A systematic review of quantitative research conducted in Cambodia was undertaken, using the theoretical framework of the Social Ecological Model to identify the personal, social and cultural factors associated with risky sexual behavior and unsafe sex in young Cambodian women. PRISMA guidelines were used to search databases including Medline Complete, PsycINFO, CINAHL Complete, Academic Search Complete, Global Health, and Social Work Abstracts. Additional searches were conducted in Science Direct, Google Scholar and in the grey literature sources. A risk-of-bias tool developed explicitly for the systematic review of cross-sectional studies was used. Summary item on the overall risk of study bias after the inter-rater response showed that the risk-of-bias was high in two studies, moderate in one study and low in one study. The search strategy included a combination of subject terms and free text terms. The medical subject headings (MeSH) terms included were; contracept* or ‘birth control’ or ‘family planning’ or pregnan* or ‘safe sex’ or ‘protected intercourse’ or ‘unprotected intercourse’ or ‘protected sex’ or ‘unprotected sex’ or ‘risky sexual behaviour*’ or ‘abort*’ or ‘planned parenthood’ or ‘unplanned pregnancy’ AND ( barrier* or obstacle* or challenge* or knowledge or attitude* or factor* or determinant* or choic* or uptake or discontinu* or acceptance or satisfaction or ‘needs assessment’ or ‘non-use’ or ‘unmet need’ or ‘decision making’ ) AND Cambodia*. Initially, 300 studies were identified by using key words and finally, four quantitative studies were selected based on the inclusion criteria. The four studies were published between 2010 and 2016. The study participants ranged in age from 10-24 years, single or married, with 3 to 10 completed years of education. The mean age at sexual debut was reported to be 18 years. Using the perspective of the Social Ecological Model, risky sexual behavior was associated with individual-level factors including young age at sexual debut, low education, unsafe sex under the influence of alcohol and substance abuse, multiple sexual partners or transactional sex. Family level factors included living away from parents, orphan status and low levels of family support. Peer and partner level factors included peer delinquency and lack of condom use. Low socioeconomic status at the society level was also associated with risky sexual behaviour. There is scant research on sexual and reproductive health of adolescent girls and young women in Cambodia. Individual, family and social factors were significantly associated with risky sexual behaviour. More research is required to inform potential preventive strategies and policies that address young women’s sexual and reproductive health.

Keywords: adolescents, high-risk sex, sexual activity, unplanned pregnancies

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5702 The Effects of Local Factors on the Concentrations and Flora of Viable Fungi in School Buildings

Authors: H. Salonen, E. Castagnoli, C. Vornanen-Winqvist, R. Mikkola, C. Duchaine, L. Morawska, J. Kurnitski

Abstract:

A wide range of health effects among occupants are associated with the exposure to bioaerosols from fungal sources. Although the accurate role of these aerosols in causing the symptoms and diseases is poorly understood, the important effect of bioaerosol exposure on human health is well recognized. Thus, there is a need to determine all of the contributing factors related to the concentration of fungi in indoor air. In this study, we reviewed and summarized the different factors affecting the concentrations of viable fungi in school buildings. The literature research was conducted using Pubmed and Google Scholar. In addition, we searched the lists of references of selected articles. According to the literature, the main factors influencing the concentration of viable fungi in the school buildings are moisture damage in building structures, the season (temperature and humidity conditions), the type and rate of ventilation, the number and activities of occupants and diurnal variations. This study offers valuable information that can be used in the interpretation of the fungal analysis and to decrease microbial exposure by reducing known sources and/or contributing factors. However, more studies of different local factors contributing to the human microbial exposure in school buildings—as well as other type of buildings and different indoor environments—are needed.

Keywords: fungi, concentration, indoor, school, contributing factor

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5701 Macroeconomic Effects and Dynamics of Natural Disaster Damages: Evidence from SETX on the Resiliency Hypothesis

Authors: Agim Kukelii, Gevorg Sargsyan

Abstract:

This study, focusing on the base regional area (county level), estimates the effect of natural disaster damages on aggregate personal income, aggregate wages, wages per worker, aggregate employment, and aggregate income transfer. The study further estimates the dynamics of personal income, employment, and wages under natural disaster shocks. Southeast Texas, located at the center of Golf Coast, is hit by meteorological and hydrological caused natural disasters yearly. On average, there are more than four natural disasters per year that cane an estimated damage average of 2.2% of real personal income. The study uses the panel data method to estimate the average effect of natural disasters on the area’s economy (personal income, wages, employment, and income transfer). It also uses Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model to study the dynamics of macroeconomic variables under natural disaster shocks. The study finds that the average effect of natural disasters is positive for personal income and income transfer and is negative for wages and employment. The PVAR and the impulse response function estimates reveal that natural disaster shocks cause a decrease in personal income, employment, and wages. However, the economy’s variables bounce back after three years. The novelty of this study rests on several aspects. First, this is the first study to investigate the effects of natural disasters on macroeconomic variables at a regional level. Second, the study uses direct measures of natural disaster damages. Third, the study estimates that the time that the local economy takes to absorb the natural disaster damages shocks is three years. This is a relatively good reaction to the local economy, therefore, adding to the “resiliency” hypothesis. The study has several implications for policymakers, businesses, and households. First, this study serves to increase the awareness of local stakeholders that natural disaster damages do worsen, macroeconomic variables, such as personal income, employment, and wages beyond the immediate damages to residential and commercial properties, physical infrastructure, and discomfort in daily lives. Second, the study estimates that these effects linger on the economy on average for three years, which would require policymakers to factor in the time area need to be on focus.

Keywords: natural disaster damages, macroeconomics effects, PVAR, panel data

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