Search results for: multiple distribution supply chain network
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 16191

Search results for: multiple distribution supply chain network

14391 Intelligent Earthquake Prediction System Based On Neural Network

Authors: Emad Amar, Tawfik Khattab, Fatma Zada

Abstract:

Predicting earthquakes is an important issue in the study of geography. Accurate prediction of earthquakes can help people to take effective measures to minimize the loss of personal and economic damage, such as large casualties, destruction of buildings and broken of traffic, occurred within a few seconds. United States Geological Survey (USGS) science organization provides reliable scientific information of Earthquake Existed throughout history & Preliminary database from the National Center Earthquake Information (NEIC) show some useful factors to predict an earthquake in a seismic area like Aleutian Arc in the U.S. state of Alaska. The main advantage of this prediction method that it does not require any assumption, it makes prediction according to the future evolution of object's time series. The article compares between simulation data result from trained BP and RBF neural network versus actual output result from the system calculations. Therefore, this article focuses on analysis of data relating to real earthquakes. Evaluation results show better accuracy and higher speed by using radial basis functions (RBF) neural network.

Keywords: BP neural network, prediction, RBF neural network, earthquake

Procedia PDF Downloads 496
14390 Psychological Factors Affecting Breastfeeding: An Exploratory Study among Breastfeeding Moms

Authors: Marwa Abdussalam

Abstract:

Breastfeeding is a unique emotional bond between a mother and their offspring. Though breastfeeding may be natural, it is not something mothers are born with; some still struggle to breastfeed their babies. Various factors can influence the breastfeeding experience, such as the mode of delivery, the mother’s health condition, proper latching, etc. In addition, psychological factors have been known to influence breastfeeding ability, duration, and milk supply. Some mothers struggle to breastfeed their babies because they perceive they have a low milk supply and or don’t have the ability to breastfeed their babies. Most of these perceptions result either from their own past experience or from the ‘comments’ of their caregivers. So, it is of utmost essential to understand such psychological factors affecting breastfeeding so that necessary steps can be taken to educate breastfeeding mothers. The study explored the role of psychological factors that affect breastfeeding. Data were collected from fifteen breastfeeding mothers using a semi-structured interview schedule. A total of 10 questions were included in the interview schedule. Questions were sequenced in a funnel pattern, beginning with open-ended questions and then moving on to close-ended questions. Data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s Thematic Analysis technique. This technique involves identifying the codes, generating themes, naming them, and finally reviewing them. Results indicated that breastfeeding self-efficacy perceived insufficient milk supply, and lack of knowledge were the psychological factors affecting breastfeeding. The results of this study can be used to help mothers who are struggling with breastfeeding by developing interventions aimed at improving breastfeeding self-efficacy.

Keywords: breastfeeding, breastfeeding self-efficacy, perceived insufficient milk supply, Thematic Analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 108
14389 Data Quality Enhancement with String Length Distribution

Authors: Qi Xiu, Hiromu Hota, Yohsuke Ishii, Takuya Oda

Abstract:

Recently, collectable manufacturing data are rapidly increasing. On the other hand, mega recall is getting serious as a social problem. Under such circumstances, there are increasing needs for preventing mega recalls by defect analysis such as root cause analysis and abnormal detection utilizing manufacturing data. However, the time to classify strings in manufacturing data by traditional method is too long to meet requirement of quick defect analysis. Therefore, we present String Length Distribution Classification method (SLDC) to correctly classify strings in a short time. This method learns character features, especially string length distribution from Product ID, Machine ID in BOM and asset list. By applying the proposal to strings in actual manufacturing data, we verified that the classification time of strings can be reduced by 80%. As a result, it can be estimated that the requirement of quick defect analysis can be fulfilled.

Keywords: string classification, data quality, feature selection, probability distribution, string length

Procedia PDF Downloads 318
14388 The Effects of Root Zone Supply of Aluminium on Vegetative Growth of 15 Groundnut Cultivars Grown in Solution Culture

Authors: Mosima M. Mabitsela

Abstract:

Groundnut is preferably grown on light textured soils. Most of these light textured soils tend to be highly weathered and characterized by high soil acidity and low nutrient status. One major soil factor associated with infertility of acidic soils that can negatively depress groundnut yield is aluminium (Al) toxicity. In plants Al toxicity damages root cells, leading to inhibition of root growth as a result of the suppression of cell division, cell elongation and cell expansion in the apical meristem cells of the root. The end result is that roots become stunted and brittle, root hair development is poor, and the root apices become swollen. This study was conducted to determine the effects of aluminium (Al) toxicity on a range of groundnut varieties. Fifteen cultivars were tested in incremental aluminum (Al) supply in an ebb and flow solution culture laid out in a randomized complete block design. There were six aluminium (Al) treatments viz. 0 µM, 1 µM, 5.7 µM, 14.14 µM, 53.18 µM, and 200 µM. At 1 µM there was no inhibitory effect on the growth of groundnut. The inhibition of groundnut growth was noticeable from 5.7 µM to 200 µM, where the severe effect of aluminium (Al) stress was observed at 200 µM. The cultivars varied in their response to aluminium (Al) supply in solution culture. Groundnuts are one of the most important food crops in the world, and its supply is on a decline due to the light-textured soils that they thrive under as these soils are acidic and can easily solubilize aluminium (Al) to its toxic form. Consequently, there is a need to develop groundnut cultivars with high tolerance to soil acidity.

Keywords: aluminium toxicity, cultivars, reduction, root growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
14387 Optimizing Inanda Dam Using Water Resources Models

Authors: O. I. Nkwonta, B. Dzwairo, J. Adeyemo, A. Jaiyola, N. Sawyerr, F. Otieno

Abstract:

The effective management of water resources is of great importance to ensure the supply of water resources to support changing water requirements over a selected planning horizon and in a sustainable and cost-effective way. Essentially, the purpose of the water resources planning process is to balance the available water resources in a system with the water requirements and losses to which the system is subjected. In such situations, Water resources yield and planning model can be used to solve those difficulties. It has an advantage over other models by managing model runs, developing a representative system network, modelling incremental sub-catchments, creating a variety of standard system features, special modelling features, and run result output options.

Keywords: complex, water resources, planning, cost effective and management

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14386 Data-Driven Simulations Tools for Der and Battery Rich Power Grids

Authors: Ali Moradiamani, Samaneh Sadat Sajjadi, Mahdi Jalili

Abstract:

Power system analysis has been a major research topic in the generation and distribution sections, in both industry and academia, for a long time. Several load flow and fault analysis scenarios have been normally performed to study the performance of different parts of the grid in the context of, for example, voltage and frequency control. Software tools, such as PSCAD, PSSE, and PowerFactory DIgSILENT, have been developed to perform these analyses accurately. Distribution grid had been the passive part of the grid and had been known as the grid of consumers. However, a significant paradigm shift has happened with the emergence of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) in the distribution level. It means that the concept of power system analysis needs to be extended to the distribution grid, especially considering self sufficient technologies such as microgrids. Compared to the generation and transmission levels, the distribution level includes significantly more generation/consumption nodes thanks to PV rooftop solar generation and battery energy storage systems. In addition, different consumption profile is expected from household residents resulting in a diverse set of scenarios. Emergence of electric vehicles will absolutely make the environment more complicated considering their charging (and possibly discharging) requirements. These complexities, as well as the large size of distribution grids, create challenges for the available power system analysis software. In this paper, we study the requirements of simulation tools in the distribution grid and how data-driven algorithms are required to increase the accuracy of the simulation results.

Keywords: smart grids, distributed energy resources, electric vehicles, battery storage systsms, simulation tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
14385 Predicting Polyethylene Processing Properties Based on Reaction Conditions via a Coupled Kinetic, Stochastic and Rheological Modelling Approach

Authors: Kristina Pflug, Markus Busch

Abstract:

Being able to predict polymer properties and processing behavior based on the applied operating reaction conditions in one of the key challenges in modern polymer reaction engineering. Especially, for cost-intensive processes such as the high-pressure polymerization of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) with high safety-requirements, the need for simulation-based process optimization and product design is high. A multi-scale modelling approach was set-up and validated via a series of high-pressure mini-plant autoclave reactor experiments. The approach starts with the numerical modelling of the complex reaction network of the LDPE polymerization taking into consideration the actual reaction conditions. While this gives average product properties, the complex polymeric microstructure including random short- and long-chain branching is calculated via a hybrid Monte Carlo-approach. Finally, the processing behavior of LDPE -its melt flow behavior- is determined in dependence of the previously determined polymeric microstructure using the branch on branch algorithm for randomly branched polymer systems. All three steps of the multi-scale modelling approach can be independently validated against analytical data. A triple-detector GPC containing an IR, viscosimetry and multi-angle light scattering detector is applied. It serves to determine molecular weight distributions as well as chain-length dependent short- and long-chain branching frequencies. 13C-NMR measurements give average branching frequencies, and rheological measurements in shear and extension serve to characterize the polymeric flow behavior. The accordance of experimental and modelled results was found to be extraordinary, especially taking into consideration that the applied multi-scale modelling approach does not contain parameter fitting of the data. This validates the suggested approach and proves its universality at the same time. In the next step, the modelling approach can be applied to other reactor types, such as tubular reactors or industrial scale. Moreover, sensitivity analysis for systematically varying process conditions is easily feasible. The developed multi-scale modelling approach finally gives the opportunity to predict and design LDPE processing behavior simply based on process conditions such as feed streams and inlet temperatures and pressures.

Keywords: low-density polyethylene, multi-scale modelling, polymer properties, reaction engineering, rheology

Procedia PDF Downloads 124
14384 E-Procurement Adoption and Effective Service Delivery in the Uganda Coffee Industry

Authors: Taus Muganda

Abstract:

This research explores the intricate relationship between e-procurement adoption and effective service delivery in the Uganda Coffee Industry, focusing on the processes involved, key actors, and the impact of digital transformation. The study is guided by three prominent theories, Actor-Network Theory, Resource-Based View Theory, and Institutional Theory to comprehensively explore the dynamics of e-procurement in the context of the coffee sector. The primary aim of this project is to examine the e-procurement adoption process and its role in enhancing service delivery within the Uganda Coffee Industry. The research questions guiding this inquiry are: firstly, whether e-procurement adoption and implementation contribute to achieving quality service delivery; and secondly, how e-procurement adoption can be effectively realized within the Uganda Coffee Industry. To address these questions, the study has laid out specific objectives. Firstly, it seeks to investigate the impact of e-procurement on effective service delivery, analysing how the integration of digital processes influences the overall quality of services provided in the coffee industry. Secondly, it aims to critically analyse the measures required to achieve effective delivery outcomes through the adoption and implementation of e-procurement, assessing the strategies that can maximize the benefits of digital transformation. Furthermore, the research endeavours to identify and examine the key actor’s instrumental in achieving effective service delivery within the Uganda Coffee Industry. By utilizing Actor-Network Theory, the study will elucidate the network of relationships and collaborations among actors involved in the e-procurement process. The research contributes to addressing a critical gap in the sector. Despite coffee being the leading export crop in Uganda, constituting 16% of total exports, there is a recognized need for digital transformation, specifically in the realm of e-procurement, to enhance the productivity of producers and contribute to the economic growth of the country. The study aims to provide insights into transforming the Uganda Coffee Industry by focusing on improving the e-procurement services delivered to actors in the coffee sector. The three forms of e-procurement investigated in this research—E-Sourcing, E-Payment, and E-Invoicing—serve as focal points in understanding the multifaceted dimensions of digital integration within the Uganda Coffee Industry. This research endeavours to offer practical recommendations for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the UCDA to strategically leverage e-procurement for the benefit of the entire coffee value chain.

Keywords: e-procurement, effective service delivery, actors, actor-network theory, resource-based view theory, institutional theory, e-invocing, e-payment, e-sourcing

Procedia PDF Downloads 71
14383 Hypergraph Models of Metabolism

Authors: Nicole Pearcy, Jonathan J. Crofts, Nadia Chuzhanova

Abstract:

In this paper, we employ a directed hypergraph model to investigate the extent to which environmental variability influences the set of available biochemical reactions within a living cell. Such an approach avoids the limitations of the usual complex network formalism by allowing for the multilateral relationships (i.e. connections involving more than two nodes) that naturally occur within many biological processes. More specifically, we extend the concept of network reciprocity to complex hyper-networks, thus enabling us to characterize a network in terms of the existence of mutual hyper-connections, which may be considered a proxy for metabolic network complexity. To demonstrate these ideas, we study 115 metabolic hyper-networks of bacteria, each of which can be classified into one of 6 increasingly varied habitats. In particular, we found that reciprocity increases significantly with increased environmental variability, supporting the view that organism adaptability leads to increased complexities in the resultant biochemical networks.

Keywords: complexity, hypergraphs, reciprocity, metabolism

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
14382 Community Participation of the Villagers: Corporate Social Responsibility Programme in Pantai Harapan Jaya Village, Bekasi Regency, West Java

Authors: Auliya Adzillatin Uzhma, Ismu Rini Dwi Ari, I. Nyoman Suluh Wijaya

Abstract:

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) programme in Pantai Harapan Jaya village is cultivation of mangrove and fishery capital distribution, to achieve the goal the CSR programme needed participation from the society in it. Moeliono in Fahrudin (2011) mentioned that participation from society is based by intrinsic reason from inside people it self and extrinsic reason from the other who related to him or from connection with other people. The fundamental connection who caused more boundaries from action which the organization can do called the social structure. The purpose of this research is to know the form of public participation and the density of the villager and people who is participated in CSR programme. This research use Social Network Analysis method by knew the Rate of Participation and Density. The result of the research is people who is involved in the programme is lived in Dusun Pondok Dua and they work in fisheries field. Rate of Participation is 11,61 and that means people involved in 11 or 12 activites of CSR Programme. The rate of participation of CSR Programme is categorized as high rate participation. The density value from the participant is 0.516 it’s mean that 51.6% of the people that participated is involved in the same step of CSR programme.

Keywords: community participation, social network analysis, corporate social responsibility, urban and regional studies

Procedia PDF Downloads 516
14381 Urban Freight Station: An Innovative Approach to Urban Freight

Authors: Amit Kumar Jain, Surbhi Jain

Abstract:

The urban freight in a city constitutes 10 to 18 per cent of all city road traffic, and 40 per cent of air pollution and noise emissions, are directly related to commercial transport. The policy measures implemented by urban planners have sought to restrict rather than assist goods-vehicle operations. This approach has temporarily controlled the urban transport demand during peak hours of traffic but has not effectively solved transport congestion. The solution discussed in the paper envisages the development of a comprehensive network of Urban Freight Stations (UFS) connected through underground conveyor belts in the city in line with baggage segregation and distribution in any of the major airports. The transportation of freight shall be done in standard size containers/cars through rail borne carts. The freight can be despatched or received from any of the UFS. Once freight is booked for a destination from any of the UFS, it would be stuffed in the container and digitally tagged for the destination. The container would reach the destination UFS through a network of rail borne carts. The container would be de-stuffed at the destination UFS and sent for further delivery, or the consignee may be asked to collect the consignment from urban freight station. The obvious benefits would be decongestion of roads, reduction in air and noise pollution, saving in manpower used for freight transportation.

Keywords: congestion, urban freight, intelligent transport system, pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 303
14380 Modeling the Philippine Stock Exchange Index Closing Value Using Artificial Neural Network

Authors: Frankie Burgos, Emely Munar, Conrado Basa

Abstract:

This paper aimed at developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model specifically for the Philippine Stock Exchange index closing value. The inputs to the ANN are US Dollar and Philippine Peso(USD-PHP) exchange rate, GDP growth of the country, quarterly inflation rate, 10-year bond yield, credit rating of the country, previous open, high, low, close values and volume of trade of the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), gold price of the previous day, National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ), Standard and Poor’s 500 (S & P 500) and the iShares MSCI Philippines ETF (EPHE) previous closing value. The target is composed of the closing value of the PSEi during the 627 trading days from November 3, 2011, to May 30, 2014. MATLAB’s Neural Network toolbox was employed to create, train and simulate the network using multi-layer feed forward neural network with back-propagation algorithm. The results satisfactorily show that the neural network developed has the ability to model the PSEi, which is affected by both internal and external economic factors. It was found out that the inputs used are the main factors that influence the movement of the PSEi closing value.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, artificial intelligence, philippine stocks exchange index, stocks trading

Procedia PDF Downloads 297
14379 An Efficient Book Keeping Strategy for the Formation of the Design Matrix in Geodetic Network Adjustment

Authors: O. G. Omogunloye, J. B. Olaleye, O. E. Abiodun, J. O. Odumosu, O. G. Ajayi

Abstract:

The focus of the study is to proffer easy formulation and computation of least square observation equation’s design matrix by using an efficient book keeping strategy. Usually, for a large network of many triangles and stations, a rigorous task is involved in the computation and placement of the values of the differentials of each observation with respect to its station coordinates (latitude and longitude), in their respective rows and columns. The efficient book keeping strategy seeks to eliminate or reduce this rigorous task involved, especially in large network, by simple skillful arrangement and development of a short program written in the Matlab environment, the formulation and computation of least square observation equation’s design matrix can be easily achieved.

Keywords: design, differential, geodetic, matrix, network, station

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
14378 Automation of Pneumatic Seed Planter for System of Rice Intensification

Authors: Tukur Daiyabu Abdulkadir, Wan Ishak Wan Ismail, Muhammad Saufi Mohd Kassim

Abstract:

Seed singulation and accuracy in seed spacing are the major challenges associated with the adoption of mechanical seeder for system of rice intensification. In this research the metering system of a pneumatic planter was modified and automated for increase precision to meet the demand of system of rice intensification SRI. The chain and sprocket mechanism of a conventional vacuum planter were now replaced with an electro mechanical system made up of a set of servo motors, limit switch, micro controller and a wheel divided into 10 equal angles. The circumference of the planter wheel was determined based on which seed spacing was computed and mapped to the angles of the metering wheel. A program was then written and uploaded to arduino micro controller and it automatically turns the seed plates for seeding upon covering the required distance. The servo motor was calibrated with the aid of labVIEW. The machine was then calibrated using a grease belt and varying the servo rpm through voltage variation between 37 rpm to 47 rpm until an optimum value of 40 rpm was obtained with a forward speed of 5 kilometers per hour. A pressure of 1.5 kpa was found to be optimum under which no skip or double was recorded. Precision in spacing (coefficient of variation), miss index, multiple index, doubles and skips were investigated. No skip or double was recorded both at laboratory and field levels. The operational parameters under consideration were both evaluated at laboratory and field. Even though there was little variation between the laboratory and field values of precision in spacing, multiple index and miss index, the different is not significant as both laboratory and field values fall within the acceptable range.

Keywords: automation, calibration, pneumatic seed planter, system of rice intensification

Procedia PDF Downloads 642
14377 The Extended Skew Gaussian Process for Regression

Authors: M. T. Alodat

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

Procedia PDF Downloads 553
14376 Study on a Family of Optimal Fourth-Order Multiple-Root Solver

Authors: Young Hee Geum

Abstract:

In this paper,we develop the complex dynamics of a family of optimal fourth-order multiple-root solvers and plot their basins of attraction. Mobius conjugacy maps and extraneous fixed points applied to a prototype quadratic polynomial raised to the power of the known integer multiplicity m are investigated. A 300 x 300 uniform grid centered at the origin covering 3 x 3 square region is chosen to visualize the initial values on each basin of attraction in accordance with a coloring scheme based on their dynamical behavior. The illustrative basins of attractions applied to various test polynomials and the corresponding statistical data for convergence are shown to confirm the theoretical convergence.

Keywords: basin of attraction, conjugacy, fourth-order, multiple-root finder

Procedia PDF Downloads 293
14375 Surface Modification of TiO2 Layer with Phosphonic Acid Monolayer in Perovskite Solar Cells: Effect of Chain Length and Terminal Functional Group

Authors: Seid Yimer Abate, Ding-Chi Huang, Yu-Tai Tao

Abstract:

In this study, charge extraction characteristics at the perovskite/TiO2 interface in the conventional perovskite solar cell is studied by interface engineering. Self-assembled monolayers of phosphonic acids with different chain length and terminal functional group were used to modify mesoporous TiO2 surface to modulate the surface property and interfacial energy barrier to investigate their effect on charge extraction and transport from the perovskite to the mp-TiO2 and then the electrode. The chain length introduces a tunnelling distance and the end group modulate the energy level alignment at the mp-TiO2 and perovskite interface. The work function of these SAM-modified mp-TiO2 varied from −3.89 eV to −4.61 eV, with that of the pristine mp-TiO2 at −4.19 eV. A correlation of charge extraction and transport with respect to the modification was attempted. The study serves as a guide to engineer ETL interfaces with simple SAMs to improve the charge extraction, carrier balance and device long term stability. In this study, a maximum PCE of ~16.09% with insignificant hysteresis was obtained, which is 17% higher than the standard device.

Keywords: Energy level alignment, Interface engineering, Perovskite solar cells, Phosphonic acid monolayer, Tunnelling distance

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
14374 A Vision Making Exercise for Twente Region; Development and Assesment

Authors: Gelareh Ghaderi

Abstract:

the overall objective of this study is to develop two alternative plans of spatial and infrastructural development for the Netwerkstad Twente (Twente region) until 2040 and to assess the impacts of those two alternative plans. This region is located on the eastern border of the Netherlands, and it comprises of five municipalities. Based on the strengths and opportunities of the five municipalities of the Netwerkstad Twente, and in order develop the region internationally, strengthen the job market and retain skilled and knowledgeable young population, two alternative visions have been developed; environmental oriented vision, and economical oriented vision. Environmental oriented vision is based mostly on preserving beautiful landscapes. Twente would be recognized as an educational center, driven by green technologies and environment-friendly economy. Market-oriented vision is based on attracting and developing different economic activities in the region based on visions of the five cities of Netwerkstad Twente, in order to improve the competitiveness of the region in national and international scale. On the basis of the two developed visions and strategies for achieving the visions, land use and infrastructural development are modeled and assessed. Based on the SWOT analysis, criteria were formulated and employed in modeling the two contrasting land use visions by the year 2040. Land use modeling consists of determination of future land use demand, assessment of suitability land (Suitability analysis), and allocation of land uses on suitable land. Suitability analysis aims to determine the available supply of land for future development as well as assessing their suitability for specific type of land uses on the basis of the formulated set of criteria. Suitability analysis was operated using CommunityViz, a Planning Support System application for spatially explicit land suitability and allocation. Netwerkstad Twente has highly developed transportation infrastructure, consists of highways network, national road network, regional road network, street network, local road network, railway network and bike-path network. Based on the assumptions of speed limitations on different types of roads provided, infrastructure accessibility level of predicted land use parcels by four different transport modes is investigated. For evaluation of the two development scenarios, the Multi-criteria Evaluation (MCE) method is used. The first step was to determine criteria used for evaluation of each vision. All factors were categorized as economical, ecological and social. Results of Multi-criteria Evaluation show that Environmental oriented cities scenario has higher overall score. Environment-oriented scenario has impressive scores in relation to economical and ecological factors. This is due to the fact that a large percentage of housing tends towards compact housing. Twente region has immense potential, and the success of this project will define the Eastern part of The Netherlands and create a real competitive local economy with innovations and attractive environment as its backbone.

Keywords: economical oriented vision, environmental oriented vision, infrastructure, land use, multi criteria assesment, vision

Procedia PDF Downloads 227
14373 A Semi-Markov Chain-Based Model for the Prediction of Deterioration of Concrete Bridges in Quebec

Authors: Eslam Mohammed Abdelkader, Mohamed Marzouk, Tarek Zayed

Abstract:

Infrastructure systems are crucial to every aspect of life on Earth. Existing Infrastructure is subjected to degradation while the demands are growing for a better infrastructure system in response to the high standards of safety, health, population growth, and environmental protection. Bridges play a crucial role in urban transportation networks. Moreover, they are subjected to high level of deterioration because of the variable traffic loading, extreme weather conditions, cycles of freeze and thaw, etc. The development of Bridge Management Systems (BMSs) has become a fundamental imperative nowadays especially in the large transportation networks due to the huge variance between the need for maintenance actions, and the available funds to perform such actions. Deterioration models represent a very important aspect for the effective use of BMSs. This paper presents a probabilistic time-based model that is capable of predicting the condition ratings of the concrete bridge decks along its service life. The deterioration process of the concrete bridge decks is modeled using semi-Markov process. One of the main challenges of the Markov Chain Decision Process (MCDP) is the construction of the transition probability matrix. Yet, the proposed model overcomes this issue by modeling the sojourn times based on some probability density functions. The sojourn times of each condition state are fitted to probability density functions based on some goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson Darling, and chi-squared test. The parameters of the probability density functions are obtained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The condition ratings obtained from the Ministry of Transportation in Quebec (MTQ) are utilized as a database to construct the deterioration model. Finally, a comparison is conducted between the Markov Chain and semi-Markov chain to select the most feasible prediction model.

Keywords: bridge management system, bridge decks, deterioration model, Semi-Markov chain, sojourn times, maximum likelihood estimation

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14372 The Interplay of Dietary Fibers and Intestinal Microbiota Affects Type 2 Diabetes by Generating Short-Chain Fatty Acids

Authors: Muhammad Mazhar, Yong Zhu, Likang Qin

Abstract:

Foods contain endogenous components known as dietary fibers, which are classified into soluble and insoluble forms. Dietary fibers are resistant to gut digestive enzymes, modulating anaerobic intestinal microbiota (AIM) and fabricating short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs). Acetate, butyrate, and propionate dominate in the gut, and different pathways, including Wood-Ljungdahl and acrylate pathways, generate these SCFAs. In pancreatic dysfunction, the release of insulin/glucagon is impaired, which leads to hyperglycemia. SCFAs enhance insulin sensitivity or secretion, beta-cell functions, leptin release, mitochondrial functions, and intestinal gluconeogenesis in human organs, which positively affect type 2 diabetes (T2D). Research models presented that SCFAs either enhance the release of peptide YY (PYY) and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) from L-cells (entero-endocrine) or promote the release of leptin hormone satiation in adipose tissues through G-protein receptors, i.e., GPR-41/GPR-43. Dietary fibers are the components of foods that influence AIM and produce SCFAs, which may be offering beneficial effects on T2D. This review addresses the effectiveness of SCFAs in modulating gut AIM in the fermentation of dietary fiber and their worth against T2D.

Keywords: dietary fibers, intestinal microbiota, short-chain fatty acids, fermentation, type 2 diabetes

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14371 Real-Time Recognition of Dynamic Hand Postures on a Neuromorphic System

Authors: Qian Liu, Steve Furber

Abstract:

To explore how the brain may recognize objects in its general,accurate and energy-efficient manner, this paper proposes the use of a neuromorphic hardware system formed from a Dynamic Video Sensor~(DVS) silicon retina in concert with the SpiNNaker real-time Spiking Neural Network~(SNN) simulator. As a first step in the exploration on this platform a recognition system for dynamic hand postures is developed, enabling the study of the methods used in the visual pathways of the brain. Inspired by the behaviours of the primary visual cortex, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are modeled using both linear perceptrons and spiking Leaky Integrate-and-Fire (LIF) neurons. In this study's largest configuration using these approaches, a network of 74,210 neurons and 15,216,512 synapses is created and operated in real-time using 290 SpiNNaker processor cores in parallel and with 93.0% accuracy. A smaller network using only 1/10th of the resources is also created, again operating in real-time, and it is able to recognize the postures with an accuracy of around 86.4% -only 6.6% lower than the much larger system. The recognition rate of the smaller network developed on this neuromorphic system is sufficient for a successful hand posture recognition system, and demonstrates a much-improved cost to performance trade-off in its approach.

Keywords: spiking neural network (SNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), posture recognition, neuromorphic system

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14370 Trace Network: A Probabilistic Relevant Pattern Recognition Approach to Attribution Trace Analysis

Authors: Jian Xu, Xiaochun Yun, Yongzheng Zhang, Yafei Sang, Zhenyu Cheng

Abstract:

Network attack prevention is a critical research area of information security. Network attack would be oppressed if attribution techniques are capable to trace back to the attackers after the hacking event. Therefore attributing these attacks to a particular identification becomes one of the important tasks when analysts attempt to differentiate and profile the attacker behind a piece of attack trace. To assist analysts in expose attackers behind the scenes, this paper researches on the connections between attribution traces and proposes probabilistic relevance based attribution patterns. This method facilitates the evaluation of the plausibility relevance between different traceable identifications. Furthermore, through analyzing the connections among traces, it could confirm the existence probability of a certain organization as well as discover its affinitive partners by the means of drawing relevance matrix from attribution traces.

Keywords: attribution trace, probabilistic relevance, network attack, attacker identification

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14369 Consequential Effects of Coal Utilization on Urban Water Supply Sources – a Study of Ajali River in Enugu State Nigeria

Authors: Enebe Christian Chukwudi

Abstract:

Water bodies around the world notably underground water, ground water, rivers, streams, and seas, face degradation of their water quality as a result of activities associated with coal utilization including coal mining, coal processing, coal burning, waste storage and thermal pollution from coal plants which tend to contaminate these water bodies. This contamination results from heavy metals, presence of sulphate and iron, dissolved solids, mercury and other toxins contained in coal ash, sludge, and coal waste. These wastes sometimes find their way to sources of urban water supply and contaminate them. A major problem encountered in the supply of potable water to Enugu municipality is the contamination of Ajali River, the source of water supply to Enugu municipal by coal waste. Hydro geochemical analysis of Ajali water samples indicate high sulphate and iron content, high total dissolved solids(TDS), low pH (acidity values) and significant hardness in addition to presence of heavy metals, mercury, and other toxins. This is indicative of the following remedial measures: I. Proper disposal of mine wastes at designated disposal sites that are suitably prepared. II. Proper water treatment and III. Reduction of coal related contaminants taking advantage of clean coal technology.

Keywords: effects, coal, utilization, water quality, sources, waste, contamination, treatment

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14368 Critical Evaluation of Long Chain Hydrocarbons with Biofuel Potential from Marine Diatoms Isolated from the West Coast of India

Authors: Indira K., Valsamma Joseph, I. S. Bright

Abstract:

Introduction :Biofuels could replace fossil fuels and reduce our carbon footprint on the planet by technological advancements needed for sustainable and economic fuel production. Micro algae have proven to be a promising source to meet the current energy demand because of high lipid content and production of high biomass rapidly. Marine diatoms, which are key contributors in the biofuel sector and also play a significant role in primary productivity and ecology with high biodiversity and genetic and chemical diversity, are less well understood than other microalgae for producing hydrocarbons. Method :The marine diatom samples selected for hydrocarbon analysis were a total of eleven, out of which 9 samples were from the culture collection of NCAAH, and the remaining two of them were isolated by serial dilution method to get a pure culture from a mixed culture of microalgae obtained from the various cruise stations (350&357) FORV Sagar Sampada along the west coast of India. These diatoms were mass cultured in F/2 media, and the biomass harvested. The crude extract was obtained from the biomass by homogenising with n-hexane, and the hydrocarbons was further obtained by passing the crude extract through 500mg Bonna Agela SPE column and the quantitative analysis was done by GCHRMS analysis using HP-5 column and Helium gas was used as a carrier gas(1ml/min). The injector port temperature was 2400C, the detector temperature was 2500C, and the oven was initially kept at 600C for 1 minute and increased to 2200C at the rate of 60C per minute, and the analysis of a mixture of long chain hydrocarbons was done .Results:In the qualitative analysis done, the most potent hydrocarbon was found to be Psammodictyon Panduriforme (NCAAH-9) with a hydrocarbon mass of 37.27mg/g of the biomass and 2.1% of the total biomass 0f 1.395g and the other potent producer is Biddulphia(NCAAH 6) with hydrocarbon mass of 25.4mg/g of biomass and percentage of hydrocarbon is 1.03%. In the quantitative analysis by GCHRMS, the long chain hydrocarbons found in most of the marine diatoms were undecane, hexadecane, octadecane 3ethyl 5,2 ethyl butyl, Eicosane7hexyl, hexacosane, heptacosane, heneicosane, octadecane 3 methyl, triacontane. The exact mass of the long chain hydrocarbons in all the marine diatom samples was found to be Nonadecane 12C191H40, Tritriacontane,13-decyl-13-heptyl 12C501H102, Octadecane,3ethyl-5-(2-ethylbutyl 12C261H54, tetratetracontane 12C441H89, Eicosane, 7-hexyl 12C261H54. Conclusion:All the marine diatoms screened produced long chain hydrocarbons which can be used as diesel fuel with good cetane value example, hexadecane, undecane. All the long chain hydrocarbons can further undergo catalytic cracking to produce short chain alkanes which can give good octane values and can be used as gasoline. Optimisation of hydrocarbon production with the most potent marine diatom yielded long chain hydrocarbons of good fuel quality.

Keywords: biofuel, hydrocarbons, marine diatoms, screening

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14367 Behavioral Analysis of Stock Using Selective Indicators from Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

Abstract:

In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

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14366 Next Generation Radiation Risk Assessment and Prediction Tools Generation Applying AI-Machine (Deep) Learning Algorithms

Authors: Selim M. Khan

Abstract:

Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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14365 Evaluation of Energy Supply and Demand Side Management for Residential Buildings in Ekiti State, Nigeria

Authors: Oluwatosin Samuel Adeoye

Abstract:

Ekiti State is an agrarian state located in south western part of Nigeria. The injected power to the Ado-Ekiti and the entire state are 25MW and 37.6 MW respectively. The estimated power demand for Ado Ekiti and Ekiti state were 29.01MW and 224.116MW respectively. The distributed power to the consumers is characterized with shortcomings which include: in-adequate supply, poor voltage regulation, improper usage, illiteracy and wastage. The power generation in Nigeria is presently 1680.60MW which does not match the estimated power demand of 15,000MW with a population of over 170 million citizens. This paper evaluates the energy utilization in Ado Ekiti metropolis, the wastage and its economic implication as well as effective means of its management. The use of direct interviews, administration of questionnaires, measurements of current and voltage with clamp multimeter, and simple mathematical approach were used for the purpose of evaluation. Recommendations were made with the view of reducing energy waste from mean value of 10.84% to 2% in order to reduce the cost implication such that the huge financial waste can be injected to other parts of the economy as well as the management of energy in Ekiti state.

Keywords: consumers, demand, energy, management, power supply, waste

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14364 A Methodology for Characterising the Tail Behaviour of a Distribution

Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

Abstract:

Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: arctangent transformation, tail classification, heavy-tailed distributions, distributional moments

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14363 Light-Weight Network for Real-Time Pose Estimation

Authors: Jianghao Hu, Hongyu Wang

Abstract:

The effective and efficient human pose estimation algorithm is an important task for real-time human pose estimation on mobile devices. This paper proposes a light-weight human key points detection algorithm, Light-Weight Network for Real-Time Pose Estimation (LWPE). LWPE uses light-weight backbone network and depthwise separable convolutions to reduce parameters and lower latency. LWPE uses the feature pyramid network (FPN) to fuse the high-resolution, semantically weak features with the low-resolution, semantically strong features. In the meantime, with multi-scale prediction, the predicted result by the low-resolution feature map is stacked to the adjacent higher-resolution feature map to intermediately monitor the network and continuously refine the results. At the last step, the key point coordinates predicted in the highest-resolution are used as the final output of the network. For the key-points that are difficult to predict, LWPE adopts the online hard key points mining strategy to focus on the key points that hard predicting. The proposed algorithm achieves excellent performance in the single-person dataset selected in the AI (artificial intelligence) challenge dataset. The algorithm maintains high-precision performance even though the model only contains 3.9M parameters, and it can run at 225 frames per second (FPS) on the generic graphics processing unit (GPU).

Keywords: depthwise separable convolutions, feature pyramid network, human pose estimation, light-weight backbone

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14362 Fatty Acid Structure and Composition Effects of Biodiesel on Its Oxidative Stability

Authors: Gelu Varghese, Khizer Saeed

Abstract:

Biodiesel is as a mixture of mono-alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from vegetable oils or animal fats. Recent studies in the literature suggest that end property of biodiesel such as its oxidative stability (OS) is highly influenced by the structure and composition of its alkyl esters than by environmental conditions. The structure and composition of these long chain fatty acid components have been also associated with trends in Cetane number, heat of combustion, cold flow properties viscosity, and lubricity. In the present work, detailed investigation has been carried out to decouple and correlate the fatty acid structure indices of biodiesel such as degree of unsaturation, chain length, double bond orientation, and composition with its oxidative stability. Measurements were taken using the EN14214 established Rancimat oxidative stability test method (EN141120). Firstly, effects of the degree of unsaturation, chain length and bond orientation were tested for the pure fatty acids to establish their oxidative stability. Results for pure Fatty acid show that Saturated FAs are more stable than unsaturated ones to oxidation; superior oxidative stability can be achieved by blending biodiesel fuels with relatively high in saturated fatty acid contents. A lower oxidative stability is noticed when a greater quantity of double bonds is present in the methyl ester. A strong inverse relationship with the number of double bonds and the Rancimat IP values can be identified. Trans isomer Methyl elaidate shows superior stability to oxidation than its cis isomer methyl oleate (7.2 vs. 2.3). Secondly, the effects of the variation in the composition of the biodiesel were investigated and established. Finally, biodiesels with varying structure and composition were investigated and correlated.

Keywords: biodiesel, fame, oxidative stability, fatty acid structure, acid composition

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