Search results for: probabilistic relevance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1236

Search results for: probabilistic relevance

1236 Trace Network: A Probabilistic Relevant Pattern Recognition Approach to Attribution Trace Analysis

Authors: Jian Xu, Xiaochun Yun, Yongzheng Zhang, Yafei Sang, Zhenyu Cheng

Abstract:

Network attack prevention is a critical research area of information security. Network attack would be oppressed if attribution techniques are capable to trace back to the attackers after the hacking event. Therefore attributing these attacks to a particular identification becomes one of the important tasks when analysts attempt to differentiate and profile the attacker behind a piece of attack trace. To assist analysts in expose attackers behind the scenes, this paper researches on the connections between attribution traces and proposes probabilistic relevance based attribution patterns. This method facilitates the evaluation of the plausibility relevance between different traceable identifications. Furthermore, through analyzing the connections among traces, it could confirm the existence probability of a certain organization as well as discover its affinitive partners by the means of drawing relevance matrix from attribution traces.

Keywords: attribution trace, probabilistic relevance, network attack, attacker identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 323
1235 Solutions to Probabilistic Constrained Optimal Control Problems Using Concentration Inequalities

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

Recently, optimal control problems subject to probabilistic constraints have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in optimization problems, several methods haven been proposed to deal with probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are transformed to deterministic constraints that are tractable in optimization problems. This paper examines a method for transforming probabilistic constraints into deterministic constraints for a class of probabilistic constrained optimal control problems.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete-time systems, probabilistic constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 240
1234 Conservativeness of Probabilistic Constrained Optimal Control Method for Unknown Probability Distribution

Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

Abstract:

In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

Procedia PDF Downloads 542
1233 Constructing a Probabilistic Ontology from a DBLP Data

Authors: Emna Hlel, Salma Jamousi, Abdelmajid Ben Hamadou

Abstract:

Every model for knowledge representation to model real-world applications must be able to cope with the effects of uncertain phenomena. One of main defects of classical ontology is its inability to represent and reason with uncertainty. To remedy this defect, we try to propose a method to construct probabilistic ontology for integrating uncertain information in an ontology modeling a set of basic publications DBLP (Digital Bibliography & Library Project) using a probabilistic model.

Keywords: classical ontology, probabilistic ontology, uncertainty, Bayesian network

Procedia PDF Downloads 312
1232 A Joint Possibilistic-Probabilistic Tool for Load Flow Uncertainty Assessment-Part I: Formulation

Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

Abstract:

As energetic and environmental issues are getting more and more attention all around the world, the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) mainly those harvesting renewable energies (REs) ascends with an unprecedented rate. This matter causes more uncertainties to appear in the power system context; ergo, the uncertainty analysis of the system performance is an obligation. The uncertainties of any system can be represented probabilistically or possibilistically. Since sufficient historical data about all the system variables is not available, therefore, they do not have a probability density function (PDF) and must be represented possibilistiacally. When some of system uncertain variables are probabilistic and some are possibilistic, neither the conventional pure probabilistic nor pure possibilistic methods can be implemented. Hence, a combined solution is appealed. The first of this two-paper series formulates a new possibilistic-probabilistic tool for the load flow uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. This possibilistic- probabilistic formulation is solved in the second companion paper in an uncertain load flow (ULF) study problem.

Keywords: probabilistic uncertainty modeling, possibilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 518
1231 Probabilistic Approach to Contrast Theoretical Predictions from a Public Corruption Game Using Bayesian Networks

Authors: Jaime E. Fernandez, Pablo J. Valverde

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodological approach that aims to contrast/validate theoretical results from a corruption network game through probabilistic analysis of simulated microdata using Bayesian Networks (BNs). The research develops a public corruption model in a game theory framework. Theoretical results suggest a series of 'optimal settings' of model's exogenous parameters that boost the emergence of corruption. The paper contrasts these outcomes with probabilistic inference results based on BNs adjusted over simulated microdata. Principal findings indicate that probabilistic reasoning based on BNs significantly improves parameter specification and causal analysis in a public corruption game.

Keywords: Bayesian networks, probabilistic reasoning, public corruption, theoretical games

Procedia PDF Downloads 167
1230 The Lexicographic Serial Rule

Authors: Thi Thao Nguyen, Andrew McLennan, Shino Takayama

Abstract:

We study the probabilistic allocation of finitely many indivisible objects to finitely many agents. Well known allocation rules for this problem include random priority, the market mechanism proposed by Hylland and Zeckhauser [1979], and the probabilistic serial rule of Bogomolnaia and Moulin [2001]. We propose a new allocation rule, which we call the lexico-graphic (serial) rule, that is tailored for situations in which each agent's primary concern is to maximize the probability of receiving her favourite object. Three axioms, lex efficiency, lex envy freeness and fairness, are proposed and fully characterize the lexicographic serial rule. We also discuss how our axioms and the lexicographic rule are related to other allocation rules, particularly the probabilistic serial rule.

Keywords: Efficiency, Envy free, Lexicographic, Probabilistic Serial Rule

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
1229 Applications of Analytical Probabilistic Approach in Urban Stormwater Modeling in New Zealand

Authors: Asaad Y. Shamseldin

Abstract:

Analytical probabilistic approach is an innovative approach for urban stormwater modeling. It can provide information about the long-term performance of a stormwater management facility without being computationally very demanding. This paper explores the application of the analytical probabilistic approach in New Zealand. The paper presents the results of a case study aimed at development of an objective way of identifying what constitutes a rainfall storm event and the estimation of the corresponding statistical properties of storms using two selected automatic rainfall stations located in the Auckland region in New Zealand. The storm identification and the estimation of the storm statistical properties are regarded as the first step in the development of the analytical probabilistic models. The paper provides a recommendation about the definition of the storm inter-event time to be used in conjunction with the analytical probabilistic approach.

Keywords: hydrology, rainfall storm, storm inter-event time, New Zealand, stormwater management

Procedia PDF Downloads 296
1228 Efficient Sampling of Probabilistic Program for Biological Systems

Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

Abstract:

In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 304
1227 Probabilistic Simulation of Triaxial Undrained Cyclic Behavior of Soils

Authors: Arezoo Sadrinezhad, Kallol Sett, S. I. Hariharan

Abstract:

In this paper, a probabilistic framework based on Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) approach has been applied to simulate triaxial cyclic constitutive behavior of uncertain soils. The framework builds upon previous work of the writers, and it has been extended for cyclic probabilistic simulation of triaxial undrained behavior of soils. von Mises elastic-perfectly plastic material model is considered. It is shown that by using probabilistic framework, some of the most important aspects of soil behavior under cyclic loading can be captured even with a simple elastic-perfectly plastic constitutive model.

Keywords: elasto-plasticity, uncertainty, soils, fokker-planck equation, fourier spectral method, finite difference method

Procedia PDF Downloads 330
1226 Optimizing the Probabilistic Neural Network Training Algorithm for Multi-Class Identification

Authors: Abdelhadi Lotfi, Abdelkader Benyettou

Abstract:

In this work, a training algorithm for probabilistic neural networks (PNN) is presented. The algorithm addresses one of the major drawbacks of PNN, which is the size of the hidden layer in the network. By using a cross-validation training algorithm, the number of hidden neurons is shrunk to a smaller number consisting of the most representative samples of the training set. This is done without affecting the overall architecture of the network. Performance of the network is compared against performance of standard PNN for different databases from the UCI database repository. Results show an important gain in network size and performance.

Keywords: classification, probabilistic neural networks, network optimization, pattern recognition

Procedia PDF Downloads 217
1225 On the Added Value of Probabilistic Forecasts Applied to the Optimal Scheduling of a PV Power Plant with Batteries in French Guiana

Authors: Rafael Alvarenga, Hubert Herbaux, Laurent Linguet

Abstract:

The uncertainty concerning the power production of intermittent renewable energy is one of the main barriers to the integration of such assets into the power grid. Efforts have thus been made to develop methods to quantify this uncertainty, allowing producers to ensure more reliable and profitable engagements related to their future power delivery. Even though a diversity of probabilistic approaches was proposed in the literature giving promising results, the added value of adopting such methods for scheduling intermittent power plants is still unclear. In this study, the profits obtained by a decision-making model used to optimally schedule an existing PV power plant connected to batteries are compared when the model is fed with deterministic and probabilistic forecasts generated with two of the most recent methods proposed in the literature. Moreover, deterministic forecasts with different accuracy levels were used in the experiments, testing the utility and the capability of probabilistic methods of modeling the progressively increasing uncertainty. Even though probabilistic approaches are unquestionably developed in the recent literature, the results obtained through a study case show that deterministic forecasts still provide the best performance if accurate, ensuring a gain of 14% on final profits compared to the average performance of probabilistic models conditioned to the same forecasts. When the accuracy of deterministic forecasts progressively decreases, probabilistic approaches start to become competitive options until they completely outperform deterministic forecasts when these are very inaccurate, generating 73% more profits in the case considered compared to the deterministic approach.

Keywords: PV power forecasting, uncertainty quantification, optimal scheduling, power systems

Procedia PDF Downloads 37
1224 Comparison between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring Consequent Risk Assessment

Authors: Isabela Moreira Queiroz

Abstract:

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Keywords: probabilistic methods, risk assessment, risk management, slope stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
1223 A Study of Chinese-specific Terms in Government Work Report(2017-2019) from the Perspective of Relevance Theory

Authors: Shi Jiaxin

Abstract:

The Government Work Report is an essential form of document in the government of the People’s Republic of China. It covers all aspects of Chinese society and reflects China’s development strategy and trend. There are countless special terms in Government Work Report. Only by understanding Chinese-specific terms can we understand the content of the Government Work Report. Only by accurately translating the Chinese-specific terms can people come from all across the world know the Chinese government work report and understand China. Relevance theory is a popular theory of cognitive pragmatics. Relevance Translation Theory, which is closely related to Relevance Theory, has crucial and major guiding significance for the translation of Chinese-specific. Through studying Relevance Theory and researching the translation techniques, strategies and applications in the process of translating Chinese-specific terms from the perspective of Relevance Theory, we can understand the meaning and connotation of Chinese-specific terms, then solve various problems in the process of C-E translation, and strengthen our translation ability.

Keywords: government work report, Chinese-specific terms, relevance theory, translation

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
1222 Probabilistic and Stochastic Analysis of a Retaining Wall for C-Φ Soil Backfill

Authors: André Luís Brasil Cavalcante, Juan Felix Rodriguez Rebolledo, Lucas Parreira de Faria Borges

Abstract:

A methodology for the probabilistic analysis of active earth pressure on retaining wall for c-Φ soil backfill is described in this paper. The Rosenblueth point estimate method is used to measure the failure probability of a gravity retaining wall. The basic principle of this methodology is to use two point estimates, i.e., the standard deviation and the mean value, to examine a variable in the safety analysis. The simplicity of this framework assures to its wide application. For the calculation is required 2ⁿ repetitions during the analysis, since the system is governed by n variables. In this study, a probabilistic model based on the Rosenblueth approach for the computation of the overturning probability of failure of a retaining wall is presented. The obtained results have shown the advantages of this kind of models in comparison with the deterministic solution. In a relatively easy way, the uncertainty on the wall and fill parameters are taken into account, and some practical results can be obtained for the retaining structure design.

Keywords: retaining wall, active earth pressure, backfill, probabilistic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 369
1221 Quick Similarity Measurement of Binary Images via Probabilistic Pixel Mapping

Authors: Adnan A. Y. Mustafa

Abstract:

In this paper we present a quick technique to measure the similarity between binary images. The technique is based on a probabilistic mapping approach and is fast because only a minute percentage of the image pixels need to be compared to measure the similarity, and not the whole image. We exploit the power of the Probabilistic Matching Model for Binary Images (PMMBI) to arrive at an estimate of the similarity. We show that the estimate is a good approximation of the actual value, and the quality of the estimate can be improved further with increased image mappings. Furthermore, the technique is image size invariant; the similarity between big images can be measured as fast as that for small images. Examples of trials conducted on real images are presented.

Keywords: big images, binary images, image matching, image similarity

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
1220 A Joint Possibilistic-Probabilistic Tool for Load Flow Uncertainty Assessment-Part II: Case Studies

Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

Abstract:

Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases.

Keywords: electric vehicles, joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
1219 Logical-Probabilistic Modeling of the Reliability of Complex Systems

Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

Abstract:

The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of weights of elements. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: Complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability, weight of element

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
1218 The Valuation of Equity Book Value and Net Income of Financial Firms in Times of Financial Crisis

Authors: Sami Adwan, Alaa Alhaj Ismail, Claudia Girardone

Abstract:

This paper examines the changes in the value relevance of book value of equity and net income of financial firms over the crisis period. It also examines how these changes vary with three variables, namely, fair value exposure, ownership concentration, and regulatory capital ratios. Using a sample of financial firms operating in the European Economic Area over 2005-2011, our findings suggest that the value relevance of book value of equity increases while that of net income decreases during the financial crisis. We find that more exposure to fair value accounting mitigates the impact of the crisis on the value relevance of book value of equity and net income. We also find that more concentrated ownership appears to have a mitigating impact on the changes in the value relevance of both book value of equity and net income in times of financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence that the level of regulatory capital ratios tends to have an attenuating effect on the changes in the value relevance of net income (but not book value of equity) in times of financial crisis.

Keywords: value relevance, financial crisis, financial firms, fair value, ownership concentration, regulatory capital

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
1217 An Analysis of Non-Elliptic Curve Based Primality Tests

Authors: William Wong, Zakaria Alomari, Hon Ching Lai, Zhida Li

Abstract:

Modern-day information security depends on implementing Diffie-Hellman, which requires the generation of prime numbers. Because the number of primes is infinite, it is impractical to store prime numbers for use, and therefore, primality tests are indispensable in modern-day information security. A primality test is a test to determine whether a number is prime or composite. There are two types of primality tests, which are deterministic tests and probabilistic tests. Deterministic tests are adopting algorithms that provide a definite answer whether a given number is prime or composite. While in probabilistic tests, a probabilistic result would be provided, there is a degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we review three probabilistic tests: the Fermat Primality Test, the Miller-Rabin Test, and the Baillie-PSW Test, as well as one deterministic test, the Agrawal-Kayal-Saxena (AKS) Test. Furthermore, we do an analysis of these tests. All of the reviews discussed are not based on the Elliptic Curve. The analysis demonstrates that, in the majority of real-world scenarios, the Baillie- PSW test’s favorability stems from its typical operational complexity of O(log 3n) and its capacity to deliver accurate results for numbers below 2^64.

Keywords: primality tests, Fermat’s primality test, Miller-Rabin primality test, Baillie-PSW primality test, AKS primality test

Procedia PDF Downloads 42
1216 Probabilistic Slope Stability Analysis of Excavation Induced Landslides Using Hermite Polynomial Chaos

Authors: Schadrack Mwizerwa

Abstract:

The characterization and prediction of landslides are crucial for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. This research aims to develop a probabilistic framework for analyzing excavation-induced landslides, which is fundamental for assessing geological hazards and mitigating risks to infrastructure and communities. The study uses Hermite polynomial chaos, a non-stationary random process, to analyze the stability of a slope and characterize the failure probability of a real landslide induced by highway construction excavation. The correlation within the data is captured using the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansion theory, and the finite element method is used to analyze the slope's stability. The research contributes to the field of landslide characterization by employing advanced random field approaches, providing valuable insights into the complex nature of landslide behavior and the effectiveness of advanced probabilistic models for risk assessment and management. The data collected from the Baiyuzui landslide, induced by highway construction, is used as an illustrative example. The findings highlight the importance of considering the probabilistic nature of landslides and provide valuable insights into the complex behavior of such hazards.

Keywords: Hermite polynomial chaos, Karhunen-Loeve, slope stability, probabilistic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 28
1215 Probabilistic Graphical Model for the Web

Authors: M. Nekri, A. Khelladi

Abstract:

The world wide web network is a network with a complex topology, the main properties of which are the distribution of degrees in power law, A low clustering coefficient and a weak average distance. Modeling the web as a graph allows locating the information in little time and consequently offering a help in the construction of the research engine. Here, we present a model based on the already existing probabilistic graphs with all the aforesaid characteristics. This work will consist in studying the web in order to know its structuring thus it will enable us to modelize it more easily and propose a possible algorithm for its exploration.

Keywords: clustering coefficient, preferential attachment, small world, web community

Procedia PDF Downloads 228
1214 Stochastic Richelieu River Flood Modeling and Comparison of Flood Propagation Models: WMS (1D) and SRH (2D)

Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

Abstract:

This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 102
1213 Relevance of the Tokyo Trial: A Comparative Perspective

Authors: Nalanda Roy

Abstract:

The project will offer a fresh and critical perspective into the Tokyo Trial judgment led by the Indian Jurist Dr. Radha Binod Pal. The project will focus on the Third World Approach to International Law (TWAIL) methodology to examine the relevance of international law from the post-colonial perspectives. The project will analyze Pal’s dissenting arguments from a new and comparative perspective, apply for work from other disciplines, and create an understanding of the significance of the historic judgment considering its contemporary relevance, and fill in the gaps that exist in the call for global justice.

Keywords: Tokyo trial, third world, judgment, international law

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
1212 Logical-Probabilistic Modeling of the Reliability of Complex Systems

Authors: Sergo Tsiramua, Sulkhan Sulkhanishvili, Elisabed Asabashvili, Lazare Kvirtia

Abstract:

The paper presents logical-probabilistic methods, models, and algorithms for reliability assessment of complex systems, based on which a web application for structural analysis and reliability assessment of systems was created. It is important to design systems based on structural analysis, research, and evaluation of efficiency indicators. One of the important efficiency criteria is the reliability of the system, which depends on the components of the structure. Quantifying the reliability of large-scale systems is a computationally complex process, and it is advisable to perform it with the help of a computer. Logical-probabilistic modeling is one of the effective means of describing the structure of a complex system and quantitatively evaluating its reliability, which was the basis of our application. The reliability assessment process included the following stages, which were reflected in the application: 1) Construction of a graphical scheme of the structural reliability of the system; 2) Transformation of the graphic scheme into a logical representation and modeling of the shortest ways of successful functioning of the system; 3) Description of system operability condition with logical function in the form of disjunctive normal form (DNF); 4) Transformation of DNF into orthogonal disjunction normal form (ODNF) using the orthogonalization algorithm; 5) Replacing logical elements with probabilistic elements in ODNF, obtaining a reliability estimation polynomial and quantifying reliability; 6) Calculation of “weights” of elements of system. Using the logical-probabilistic methods, models and algorithms discussed in the paper, a special software was created, by means of which a quantitative assessment of the reliability of systems of a complex structure is produced. As a result, structural analysis of systems, research, and designing of optimal structure systems are carried out.

Keywords: complex systems, logical-probabilistic methods, orthogonalization algorithm, reliability of systems, “weights” of elements

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
1211 Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Koeberg Spent Fuel Pool

Authors: Sibongiseni Thabethe, Ian Korir

Abstract:

The effective management of spent fuel pool (SFP) safety has been raised as one of the emerging issues to further enhance nuclear installation safety after the Fukushima accident on March 11, 2011. Before then, SFP safety-related issues have been mainly focused on (a) controlling the configuration of the fuel assemblies in the pool with no loss of pool coolants and (b) ensuring adequate pool storage space to prevent fuel criticality owing to chain reactions of the fission products and the ability for neutron absorption to keep the fuel cool. A probabilistic safety (PSA) assessment was performed using the systems analysis program for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) computer code. Event and fault tree analysis was done to develop a PSA model for the Koeberg SFP. We present preliminary PSA results of events that lead to boiling and cause fuel uncovering, resulting in possible fuel damage in the Koeberg SFP.

Keywords: computer code, fuel assemblies, probabilistic risk assessment, spent fuel pool

Procedia PDF Downloads 118
1210 Localization of Frontal and Temporal Speech Areas in Brain Tumor Patients by Their Structural Connections with Probabilistic Tractography

Authors: B.Shukir, H.Woo, P.Barzo, D.Kis

Abstract:

Preoperative brain mapping in tumors involving the speech areas has an important role to reduce surgical risks. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is the gold standard method to localize cortical speech areas preoperatively, but its availability in clinical routine is difficult. Diffusion MRI based probabilistic tractography is available in head MRI. It’s used to segment cortical subregions by their structural connectivity. In our study, we used probabilistic tractography to localize the frontal and temporal cortical speech areas. 15 patients with left frontal tumor were enrolled to our study. Speech fMRI and diffusion MRI acquired preoperatively. The standard automated anatomical labelling atlas 3 (AAL3) cortical atlas used to define 76 left frontal and 118 left temporal potential speech areas. 4 types of tractography were run according to the structural connection of these regions to the left arcuate fascicle (FA) to localize those cortical areas which have speech functions: 1, frontal through FA; 2, frontal with FA; 3, temporal to FA; 4, temporal with FA connections were determined. Thresholds of 1%, 5%, 10% and 15% applied. At each level, the number of affected frontal and temporal regions by fMRI and tractography were defined, the sensitivity and specificity were calculated. At the level of 1% threshold showed the best results. Sensitivity was 61,631,4% and 67,1523,12%, specificity was 87,210,4% and 75,611,37% for frontal and temporal regions, respectively. From our study, we conclude that probabilistic tractography is a reliable preoperative technique to localize cortical speech areas. However, its results are not feasible that the neurosurgeon rely on during the operation.

Keywords: brain mapping, brain tumor, fMRI, probabilistic tractography

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
1209 Using Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) for Extracting Acoustic Microwaves (Bulk Acoustic Waves) in Piezoelectric Material

Authors: Hafdaoui Hichem, Mehadjebia Cherifa, Benatia Djamel

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a new method for Bulk detection of an acoustic microwave signal during the propagation of acoustic microwaves in a piezoelectric substrate (Lithium Niobate LiNbO3). We have used the classification by probabilistic neural network (PNN) as a means of numerical analysis in which we classify all the values of the real part and the imaginary part of the coefficient attenuation with the acoustic velocity in order to build a model from which we note the Bulk waves easily. These singularities inform us of presence of Bulk waves in piezoelectric materials. By which we obtain accurate values for each of the coefficient attenuation and acoustic velocity for Bulk waves. This study will be very interesting in modeling and realization of acoustic microwaves devices (ultrasound) based on the propagation of acoustic microwaves.

Keywords: piezoelectric material, probabilistic neural network (PNN), classification, acoustic microwaves, bulk waves, the attenuation coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 374
1208 Resistance and Sub-Resistances of RC Beams Subjected to Multiple Failure Modes

Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

Abstract:

Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

Procedia PDF Downloads 437
1207 Probabilistic Fracture Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock

Authors: Jianguo Chen, Fenggang Zang, Yu Yang, Liangang Zheng

Abstract:

Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is an important security barrier in nuclear power plant. Crack like defects may be produced on RPV during the whole operation lifetime due to the harsh operation condition and irradiation embrittlement. During the severe loss of coolant accident, thermal shock happened as the injection of emergency cooling water into RPV, which results in re-pressurization of the vessel and very high tension stress on the vessel wall, this event called Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS). Crack on the vessel wall may propagate even penetrate the vessel, so the safety of the RPV would undergo great challenge. Many assumptions in structure integrity evaluation make the result of deterministic fracture mechanics very conservative, which affect the operation lifetime of the plant. Actually, many parameters in the evaluation process, such as fracture toughness and nil-ductility transition temperature, have statistical distribution characteristics. So it is necessary to assess the structural integrity of RPV subjected to PTS event by means of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM). Structure integrity evaluation methods of RPV subjected to PTS event are summarized firstly, then evaluation method based on probabilistic fracture mechanics are presented by considering the probabilistic characteristics of material and structure parameters. A comprehensive analysis example is carried out at last. The results show that the probability of crack penetrates through wall increases gradually with the growth of fast neutron irradiation flux. The results give advice for reactor life extension.

Keywords: fracture toughness, integrity evaluation, pressurized thermal shock, probabilistic fracture mechanics, reactor pressure vessel

Procedia PDF Downloads 212