Search results for: seasonal and monthly variability

Authors: Manjit Singh

Abstract:

Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an extensively used index to provide a general understanding of multiple complexity of physiologic mechanism of heart rate variability (HRV) that operates on a wide range of time scales. Accurate selection of electrocardiogram (ECG) sampling frequency is an essential concern for clinically significant HRV quantification; high ECG sampling rate increase memory requirements and processing time, whereas low sampling rate degrade signal quality and results in clinically misinterpreted HRV. In this work, the impact of ECG sampling frequency on MSE based HRV have been quantified. MSE measures are found to be sensitive to ECG sampling frequency and effect of sampling frequency will be a function of time scale.

Keywords: ECG (electrocardiogram), heart rate variability (HRV), multiscale entropy, sampling frequency

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Helen Frialde-Dupale

Abstract:

Critical thinking Index (CTI) of 150 third year college students from five State Colleges and Universities (SUCs) in Region I were determined. Only students with Grade Point Average (GPA) of at least 2.0 from four general classification of degree courses, namely: Education, Arts and Sciences, Engineering and Agriculture were included. Specific problem No.1 dealt with the profile variables, namely: age, sex, degree course, monthly family income, number of siblings, high school graduated from, grade point average, personality type, highest educational attainment of parents, and occupation of parents. Problem No. 2 determined the critical thinking index among the respondents. Problem No. 3 investigated whether or not there are significant differences in the critical thinking index among the respondents across the profile variables. While problem No.4 determined whether or not there are significant relationship between the critical thinking index and selected profile variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average of the respondents. Finally, on problem No. 5, the critical thinking instrument which obtained the lowest rates, were used as basis for outlining an intervention program for enhancing critical thinking index (CTI) of students. The following null hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance: there are no significant differences in the critical thinking index of the third college students across the profile variables; there are no significant relationships between the critical thinking index of the respondents and selected variables, namely: age, monthly family income, number of siblings, and grade point average.

Keywords: attitude as critical thinker, critical thinking applied, critical thinking index, self-perception as critical thinker

Procedia PDF Downloads 492

Authors: Paras Ram, Vikas Kumar

Abstract:

The transmission of Malaria with seasonal were studied through the use of mathematical models. The data from the annual number of Malaria cases reported to the Division of Epidemiology, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand during the period 1997-2011 were analyzed. The transmission of Malaria with seasonal was studied by formulating a mathematical model which had been modified to describe different situations encountered in the transmission of Malaria. In our model, the population was separated into two groups: the human and vector groups, and then constructed a system of nonlinear differential equations. Each human group was divided into susceptible, infectious in hot season, infectious in rainy season, infectious in cool season and recovered classes. The vector population was separated into two classes only: susceptible and infectious vectors. The analysis of the models was given by the standard dynamical modeling.

Keywords: ferrofluid, magnetic field, porous medium, rotating disk, Neuringer-Rosensweig Model

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Emily Injete Amondo, Alisher Mirzabaev, Emmanuel Rukundo

Abstract:

Children in rural farming households are often vulnerable to a multitude of risks, including health risks associated with climate change and variability. Cognizant of this, this study empirically traced the relationship between climate variability and nutritional health outcomes in rural children while identifying the cause-and-effect transmission mechanisms. We combined four waves of the rich Uganda National Panel Survey (UNPS), part of the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Studies (LSMS) for the period 2009-2014, with long-term and high-frequency rainfall and temperature datasets. Self-reported drought and flood shock variables were further used in separate regressions for triangulation purposes and robustness checks. Panel fixed effects regressions were applied in the empirical analysis, accounting for a variety of causal identification issues. The results showed significant negative outcomes for children’s anthropometric measurements due to the impacts of moderate and extreme droughts, extreme wet spells, and heatwaves. On the contrary, moderate wet spells were positively linked with nutritional measures. Agricultural production and child diarrhea were the main transmission channels, with heatwaves, droughts, and high rainfall variability negatively affecting crop output. The probability of diarrhea was positively related to increases in temperature and dry spells. Results further revealed that children in households who engaged in ex-ante or anticipatory risk-reducing strategies such as savings had better health outcomes as opposed to those engaged in ex-post coping such as involuntary change of diet. These results highlight the importance of adaptation in smoothing the harmful effects of climate variability on the health of rural households and children in Uganda.

Keywords: extreme weather events, undernutrition, diarrhea, agricultural production, gridded weather data

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Raid Hommady, Waseem Al-Talalwah, Shorok Al Dorazi, Roger Soames

Abstract:

The iliolumbar artery is a regular branch of posterior division of the internal iliac artery. The present study investigate 82 specimens to identify the origin of iliolumbar artery. The present study targets the sciatic nerve root supply from iliolumbar artery based on its origin and course. In present study, the ililumbar artery arose from the posterior division of internal iliac artery in 52.2%. In few cases, it arose from dorsomedial aspect of the internal iliac artery in 28.8%. In few cases, the iliolumbar artery arose from the dorsal aspects of the internal iliac artery as well as from the common and external iliac artery 1.7%. Also, the iliolumbar artery arose from the sciatic artery as well as from superior and inferior gluteal arteries in 5.1%. Conversely, it found to be congenital absent in 8.5%. Therefore, the posterior trunk of the internal iliac artery is the most common origin of the iliolumbar artery. With the origin variability of the iliolumbar artery, there is a vascular supply variability of the lumbosacral trunk and sacral root of sciatic nerve. The iliolumbar artery provides vascular supply for lumbosacral trunk 57.3% in whereas the sacral root in 5.1%. As a result, surgeons should pay attention to these variations to decrease iatrogenic fault.

Keywords: iliolumbar, sciatic artery, internal iliac, external iliac, posterior division

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Andrea Szabó Nagy, János Szabó, Zsófia Csanádi, József Erdős

Abstract:

The main objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations associated with PM10 in an urban site of Győr, Hungary. A total of 112 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the years of 2012 and 2013 and analyzed for PAHs by gas chromatography method. The total PAH concentrations (sum of the concentrations of 19 individual PAH compounds) ranged from 0.19 to 70.16 ng/m3 with the mean value of 12.29 ng/m3. Higher concentrations of both total PAHs and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) were detected in samples collected in the heating seasons. Using BaP-equivalent potency index on the carcinogenic PAH concentration data, the local population appears to be exposed to significantly higher cancer risk in the heating seasons. However, the comparison of the BaP and total PAH concentrations observed for Győr with other cities it was found that the PAH levels in Győr generally corresponded to the EU average.

Keywords: air quality, benzo[a]pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 463

Authors: Mohamed Emran, Giovanni Pardini, Maria Gispert, Mohamed Rashad

Abstract:

Land use and abandonment in semi-arid degraded ecosystems may cause regressive dynamics in vegetation cover affecting organic matter contents, soil nutrients and structural stability, thus reducing soil resistance to erosion. Mediterranean areas are generally subjected to climatic fluctuations, which modify soil conditions and hydrological processes, such as runoff and water infiltration within the upper soil horizons. Low erosion rates occur in very fragile and shallow soils with minor clay content progressively decrease organic carbon C and nitrogen N pools in the upper soil horizons. Seven soils were selected representing variant context of land use and abandonment at the Cap de Creus Peninsula, Catalonia, NE Spain, from recent cultivated vines and olive groves, mid abandoned forests standing under cork and pine trees, pasture to late abandoned Cistus and Erica scrubs. The aim of this work was to study the effect of changes in land use and abandonment on the depletion of soil organic carbon and nitrogen transported by runoff water in shallow soils after natural rainfall events during two years with different rainfall patterns (1st year with low rainfall and 2nd year with high rainfall) by i) monitoring the most significant soil erosion parameters at recorded rainfall events, ii) studying the most relevant soil physical and chemical characteristics on seasonal basis and iii) analysing the seasonal trends of depleted carbon and nitrogen and their interaction with soil surface compaction parameters. Significant seasonal variability was observed in the relevant soil physical and chemical parameters and soil erosion parameters in all soils to establish their evolution under land use and abandonment during two years of different rainfall patterns (214 and 487 mm per year), giving important indications on soil response to rainfall impacts. Erosion rates decreased significantly with the increasing of soil C and N under low and high rainfall. In cultivated soils, C and N depletion increased by 144% and 115%, respectively by 13% increase in erosion rates during the 1st year with respect to the 2nd year. Depleted C and N were proportionally higher in soils under vines and olive with vulnerable soil structure and low soil resilience leading to degradation, altering nutrients cycles and causing adverse impact on environmental quality. Statistical analysis underlined that, during the 1st year, soil surface was less effective in preserving stocks of organic resources leading to higher susceptibility to erosion with consequent C and N depletion. During the 2nd year, higher organic reserve and water storage occurred despite the increasing of C and N loss with an effective contribution from soil surface compaction parameters. The overall estimation during the two years indicated clear differences among soils under vines, olive, cork and pines, suggesting on the one hand, that current cultivation practices are inappropriate and that reforestation with pines may delay the achievement of better soil conditions. On the other hand, the natural succession of vegetation under Cistus, pasture and Erica suggests the recovery of good soil conditions.

Keywords: land abandonment, land use, nutrient's depletion, soil erosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Iman Fakhrian, Ali Salehi Manzari

Abstract:

Consistent Profitability is one of the most important priorities in manufacturing companies. One of the fundamental factors for increasing the companies profitability is cost management. Isfahan's mobarakeh steel company is one of the largest producers of the slab product grades in the middle east. Raw material cost constitutes about 70% of the company's expenditures. The costs of the ferro alloys have a remarkable contribution of the raw material costs. This research aims to determine the ferro alloys which have significant effect on the variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. Used data in this study were collected from standard costing system of isfahan's mobarakeh steel company in 2022. The results of conducting the regression analysis model show that expense items: 03020, 03045, 03125, 03130 and 03150 have dominant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. In other words, the mentioned ferro alloys have noticeable and significant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades.

Keywords: consistent profitability, ferro alloys, slab product grades, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Tanzeel Rashid, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

Abstract:

Currently, the energy crisis is taking serious attention. Globally, industries and building are major share takers of energy. 72% of total global energy is consumed by residential houses, markets, and commercial building. Additionally, in appliances air conditioners are major consumer of electricity; about 60% energy is used for cooling purpose in houses due to HVAC units. Energy demand will aid in determining what changes will be needed whether it is the estimation of the required energy for households or instituting conservation measures. Bottom-up model is one of the most famous methods for forecasting. In current research bottom-up model of air conditioners' energy consumption in all income classes in comparison with seasonal variation and hourly consumption is calculated. By comparison of energy consumption of all income classes by usage of air conditioners, total consumption of actual demand and current availability can be seen.

Keywords: air conditioning, bottom up model, income classes, energy demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Manisha Mukherjee, Diptarka Saha

Abstract:

Reliable forecasts of univariate time series data are often necessary for several contexts. ARIMA models are quite popular among practitioners in this regard. Hence, choosing correct parameter values for ARIMA is a challenging yet imperative task. Thus, a stepwise algorithm is introduced to provide automatic and robust estimates for parameters (p; d; q)(P; D; Q) used in seasonal ARIMA models. This process is focused on improvising the overall quality of the estimates, and it alleviates the problems induced due to the unidimensional nature of the methods that are currently used such as auto.arima. The fast and automated search of parameter space also ensures reliable estimates of the parameters that possess several desirable qualities, consequently, resulting in higher test accuracy especially in the cases of noisy data. After vigorous testing on real as well as simulated data, the algorithm doesn’t only perform better than current state-of-the-art methods, it also completely obviates the need for human intervention due to its automated nature.

Keywords: time series, ARIMA, auto.arima, ARIMA parameters, forecast, R function

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

Abstract:

Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

Procedia PDF Downloads 461

Authors: Laura O’Halloran, Zhipeng Cao, Clare M. Kelly, Hugh Garavan, Robert Whelan

Abstract:

Reaction time (RT) variability on cognitive tasks provides the index of the efficiency of executive control processes (e.g. attention and inhibitory control) and is considered to be a hallmark of clinical disorders, such as attention-deficit disorder (ADHD). Increased RT variability is associated with structural and functional brain differences in children and adults with various clinical disorders, as well as poorer task performance accuracy. Furthermore, the strength of functional connectivity across various brain networks, such as the negative relationship between the task-negative default mode network and task-positive attentional networks, has been found to reflect differences in RT variability. Although RT variability may provide an index of attentional efficiency, as well as being a useful indicator of neurological impairment, the brain substrates associated with RT variability remain relatively poorly defined, particularly in a healthy sample. Method: Firstly, we used the intra-individual coefficient of variation (ICV) as an index of RT variability from “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. We then examined the functional and structural neural correlates of ICV in a large sample of 14-year old healthy adolescents (n=1719). Of these, a subset had elevated symptoms of ADHD (n=80) and was compared to a matched non-symptomatic control group (n=80). The relationship between brain activity during successful and unsuccessful inhibitions and gray matter volume were compared with the ICV. A mediation analysis was conducted to examine if specific brain regions mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and ICV. Lastly, we looked at functional connectivity across various brain networks and quantified both positive and negative correlations during “Go” responses on the Stop Signal Task. Results: The brain data revealed that higher ICV was associated with increased structural and functional brain activation in the precentral gyrus in the whole sample and in adolescents with ADHD symptoms. Lower ICV was associated with lower activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and medial frontal gyrus in the whole sample and in the control group. Furthermore, our results indicated that activation in the precentral gyrus (Broadman Area 4) mediated the relationship between ADHD symptoms and behavioural ICV. Conclusion: This is the first study first to investigate the functional and structural correlates of ICV collectively in a large adolescent sample. Our findings demonstrate a concurrent increase in brain structure and function within task-active prefrontal networks as a function of increased RT variability. Furthermore, structural and functional brain activation patterns in the ACC, and medial frontal gyrus plays a role-optimizing top-down control in order to maintain task performance. Our results also evidenced clear differences in brain morphometry between adolescents with symptoms of ADHD but without clinical diagnosis and typically developing controls. Our findings shed light on specific functional and structural brain regions that are implicated in ICV and yield insights into effective cognitive control in healthy individuals and in clinical groups.

Keywords: ADHD, fMRI, reaction-time variability, default mode, functional connectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Yong Zhao, Jian He, Cheng Zhang

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases caused by hypertension are extremely threatening to human health, and early diagnosis of hypertension can save a large number of lives. Traditional hypertension detection methods require special equipment and are difficult to detect continuous blood pressure changes. In this regard, this paper first analyzes the principle of heart rate variability (HRV) and introduces sliding window and power spectral density (PSD) to analyze the time domain features and frequency domain features of HRV, and secondly, designs an HRV-based hypertension prediction network by combining Resnet, attention mechanism, and multilayer perceptron, which extracts the frequency domain through the improved ResNet18 features through a modified ResNet18, its fusion with time-domain features through an attention mechanism, and the auxiliary prediction of hypertension through a multilayer perceptron. Finally, the network was trained and tested using the publicly available SHAREE dataset on PhysioNet, and the test results showed that this network achieved 92.06% prediction accuracy for hypertension and outperformed K Near Neighbor(KNN), Bayes, Logistic, and traditional Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) models in prediction performance.

Keywords: feature extraction, heart rate variability, hypertension, residual networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: H. Hanine, H. H'ssaini, M. Ibno Alaoui, A. Nablousi, H. Zahir, S. Ennahli, H. Latrache, H. Zine Abidine

Abstract:

Biochemical and pomological variability among 14 cultivars of Prunus dulcis planted in a germoplasm collection site in Morocco were evaluated. Almond samples from six local and eight foreign cultivars (France, Italy, Spain, and USA) were characterized. Biochemical and pomological data revealed significant genetic variability among the 14 cultivars; local cultivars exhibited higher total polyphenol content. Oil content ranged from 35 to 57% among cultivars; both Texas and Toundout genotypes recorded the highest oil content. Total protein concentration from select cultivars ranged from 50 mg/g in Ferraduel to 105 mg/g in Rizlane1 cultivars. Antioxidant activity of almond samples was examined by a DPPH (1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl) radical-scavenging assay; the antioxidant activity varied significantly within the cultivars, with IC50 (the half-maximal inhibitory concentration) values ranging from 2.25 to 20 mg/ml. Autochthonous cultivars originated from the Oujda region exhibited higher tegument total polyphenol and amino acid content compared to others. The genotype Rizlane2 recorded the highest flavonoid content. Pomological traits revealed a large variability within the almond germplasms. The hierarchical clustering analysis of all the data regarding pomological traits distinguished two groups with some particular genotypes as distinct cultivars, and groups of cultivars as polyclone varieties. These results strongly exhibit a potential use of Moroccan-originated almonds as potential clones for future selection due to their nutritional values and pomological traits compared to well-established cultivars.

Keywords: antioxidant activity, DDPH, Moroccan almonds, Prunus dulcis

Procedia PDF Downloads 215

Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

Abstract:

U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

Procedia PDF Downloads 119

Authors: Devansh Desai, Chamandeep Kaur, Nirmal Kullu, George Christopher

Abstract:

Study of aerosols has become very important tool in assuming the climatic changes over a region.Spectral and temporal variability’s in aerosol optical depth(AOD) and size distribution are investigated using ground base measurements over Ahmedabad during the months of January(2013) to may (2013). Angstrom coefficient (ἁ) was found to be higher in winter season (January to march) indicating the dominance of fine mode aerosol concentration over Ahmedabad, and the Angstrom coefficient (ἁ) was found to be lower indicating the dominance of coarse mode aerosol concentration over Ahmedabad. The different values of alpha are observed when calculated over different wavelength ranges indicating bimodal aerosol size distribution. Discrimination of aerosol size during different seasons is made using the coefficient of polynomial fit (ἁ1 and ἁ2) which shows the presence of changing dominant aerosol types as a function of season over Ahmedabad. The ἁ2- ἁ1 value is used to get the confirmation on the dominant aerosol mode over Ahmedabad in both seasons. During pre-monsoon about 90% of AOD spectra is dominated by coarse mode aerosols and during winter about 60% of AOD spectra is dominated by fine mode aerosols. This characterization of aerosols is important in assessing the response of different aerosols type in radiative forcing and over climate of Ahmedabad.

Keywords: radiative forcing, aerosol optical depth, fine mode, coarse mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Ali M. Subyani

Abstract:

The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

Abstract:

Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Ahmad Bakkar

Abstract:

Although special care is given to maintenance, aircraft systems fail, and these failures cause delays and cancellations. The occurrence of Delays and Cancellations affects operators and manufacturers negatively. To reduce technical delays and cancellations, one should be able to determine the important systems causing them. The goal of this research is to find a method to define the most expensive delays and cancellations systems for Airline operators. A predictive model was introduced to forecast the failure and their impact after carrying out research that identifies relevant information to tackle the problems faced while answering the questions of this paper. Data were obtained from the manufacturers’ services reliability team database. Subsequently, delays and cancellations evaluation methods were identified. No cost estimation methods were used due to their complexity. The model was developed, and it takes into account the frequency of delays and cancellations and uses weighting factors to give an indication of the severity of their duration. The weighting factors are based on customer experience. The data Analysis approach has shown that delays and cancellations events are not seasonal and do not follow any specific trends. The use of weighting factor does have an influence on the shortlist over short periods (Monthly) but not the analyzed period of three years. Landing gear and the navigation system are among the top 3 factors causing delays and cancellations for all three aircraft types. The results did confirm that the cooperation between certain operators and manufacture reduce the impact of delays and cancellations.

Keywords: reliability, availability, delays & cancellations, aircraft maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Ya-Hui Lee, Ching-Yi Lu, Chien Hung, Hsieh

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the difference between state-owned-enterprise employees and the civil servants regarding their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The researchers investigated 687 middle age and older adults (345 state-owned-enterprise employees and 342 civil servants) through survey research, to understand the relevance between and the prediction of their future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. The findings of this study are: 1.There are significant differences between these two professions regarding future-oriented thinking but not retirement planning. The results of the future-oriented thinking of civil servants are overall higher than that of the state-owned-enterprise employees. 2. There are significant differences both in the aspects of future-oriented thinking and retirement planning among civil servants of different ages. The future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of ages 55 and above are more significant than those of ages 45 or under. For the state-owned-enterprise employees, however, there is no significance found in their future-oriented thinking, but in their retirement planning. Moreover, retirement planning is higher at ages 55 or above than at other ages. 3. With regard to education, there is no correlation to future-oriented thinking or retirement planning for civil servants. For state-owned-enterprise employees, however, their levels of education directly affect their future-oriented thinking. Those with a master degree or above have greater future-oriented thinking than those with other educational degrees. As for retirement planning, there is no correlation. 4. Self-assessment of economic status significantly affects the future-oriented thinking and retirement planning of both civil servants and state-owned-enterprise employees. Those who assess themselves more affluently are more inclined to future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. 5. For civil servants, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning, but none with future-oriented thinking. As for state-owned-enterprise employees, there are significant differences between their monthly income and retirement planning as well as future-oriented thinking. State-owned-enterprise employees who have significantly higher monthly incomes (1,960 euros and above) have more significant future-oriented thinking and retirement planning than those with lower monthly incomes (1,469 euros and below). 6. The middle age and older adults of both professions have positive correlations with future-oriented thinking and retirement planning. Through stepwise multiple regression analysis, the results indicate that future-oriented thinking and retirement planning have positive predictions. The authors then present the findings of this study for state-owned-enterprises, public authorities, and older adult educational program designs in Taiwan as references.

Keywords: state-owned-enterprise employees, civil servants, future-oriented thinking, retirement planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 336

Authors: Y. B. Sharma, K. B. Biswas

Abstract:

This research project examines a 5000 cal yr BP sediment core record to reveal the consequences of human impact and climate variability on the tropical dry forests of the Mahi river basin, western India. To date there has been little research to assess the impact of climate variability and human impact on the vegetation dynamics of this region. There has also been little work to link changes in vegetation cover to documented changes in the basin hydrology over the past 100 years – although it is assumed that the two are closely linked. The key objective of this research project therefore is to understand the driving mechanisms responsible for the abrupt changes in the Mahi river basin as detailed in historical documentation and its impact on water resource management. The Mahi river basin is located in western India (22° 11’-24° 35’ N 72° 46’-74° 52’ E). Mahi river arises in the Malwa Plateau, Madhya Pradesh near Moripara and flows through the uplands and alluvial plain of Rajasthan and Gujarat provinces before draining into the Gulf of Cambay. Palaeoecological procedures (sedimentology, geochemical analysis, C&N isotopes and fossil pollen evidences) have been applied on sedimentary sequences collected from lakes in the Mahi basin. These techniques then facilitate to reconstruct the soil erosion, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes and climatic variability over the last 5000 years. Historical documentation detailing changes in demography, climate and landscape use over the past 100 years in this region will also be collated to compare with the most recent palaeoecological records. The results of the research work provide a detailed record of vegetation change, soil erosion, changes in aridity, and rainfall patterns in the region over the past 5000 years. This research therefore aims to determine the drivers of change and natural variability in the basin. Such information is essential for its current and future management including restoration.

Keywords: human impact, climate variability, vegetation cover, hydrology, water resource management, Mahi river basin, sedimentology, geochemistry, fossil pollen, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes, palaeoecology, aridity, rainfall, drivers of change

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

Abstract:

The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: Dagem Alemayehu, Samson Gebersilassie, Jan Frank

Abstract:

Climate change is impacting nutrition through reducing food quantity and access, limiting dietary diversity, and decreased nutritional food content as well as strongly affecting seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, only a few data is available on the impacts of seasonality in Infant, and Young Child Feeding (IYCF) practices undernutrition among 6-23 months old children in different agro-ecological zones of poor resource settings of Ethiopia. Methods: Socio-demographic, anthropometry, and IYCF indicators were assessed in the harvest and lean seasons among children aged 6–23 months of age randomly selected from rural villages of lowland and midland agro-ecological zones. Results: Child stunting and underweight increased from prevalence of 32.8 % and 23.9 % (lowland &midland respectively) in the lean season to 36.1% and 33.8 % harvest seasons, respectively. The biggest increase in the prevalence of stunting and underweight between harvest and lean seasons was noted in the lowland zone. Wasting decreased from 11.6% lean to 8.5% harvest, with the biggest decline recorded in the midland zone. Minimum meal frequency, minimum acceptable diet, and poor dietary diversity increased considerably in harvest compared to a lean season in the lowland zone. Feeding practices and maternal age were predictors of wasting, while women's dietary diversity and children's age was a predictor of child dietary diversity in both seasons. Conclusion: There is seasonal variation in undernutrition and IYCF practices among children 6-23 months of age with more pronounced effect lowland agro-ecological zone.

Keywords: agroecology, seasonality, stunting, wasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Mohammad Tahsin Karimi Nezhad, Zaynab Shadbahr, Ali Gholami

Abstract:

In recent years many attempts have been made to assess groundwater contamination by nitrates worldwide. The assessment of spatial and temporal variations of physico-chemical parameters of water is necessary to mange water quality. The objectives of the study were to evaluate spatial variability and temporal changes of hydrochemical factors by water sampling from 24 wells in the Shoush City suburb. The analysis was conducted for the whole area and for different land use and geological classes. In addition, nitrate concentration variability with descriptive parameters such as sampling depth, dissolved oxygen, and on ground nitrogen loadings was also investigated The results showed that nitrate concentrations did not exceed the standard limit (50 mg/l). EC of water samples, ranged from 900 to 1200 µs/cm, TDS from 775 to 830 mg/l and pH from 5.6 to 9.

Keywords: groundwater, GIS, water quality, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 410

Authors: M. Shah Alamgir, Jun Furuya, Shintaro Kobayashi, M. Abdus Salam

Abstract:

Farmers’ environmental and economic situations are very diverse. In order to develop effective policies and technologies to improve farmers’ life standard, it is important to understand which factors induce the diversity of agricultural income. Analyze both primary and secondary data, this study applied descriptive, inferential statistical tools, and econometric techniques. From the study, farmers of Sylhet Division produce potato as one of the main cash crop with other seasonal crops. The total costs of potato production per hectare varied in different districts of Sylhet division in addition seed and hired labor cost has the biggest share of the full cost. To grasp the diversity of income, the study decomposes the variance of net income into different factors of potato production. Through this decomposition, seed cost is the important factors of income variability and it is the most important sector to induce total cost disparity for potato production. The result shows that 73% of net income variation is explained by gross income. It implies that potato yield or potato price (quality) or both vary widely among farmers. This finding is important of policymaking and technology development of agricultural farming in Bangladesh.

Keywords: agricultural income, seed, hired labor, technology development

Procedia PDF Downloads 394

Authors: Carlos Roberto De Rolt, Julio da Silva Dias, Rafael Tezza, Luca Foschini, Matteo Mura

Abstract:

The seasonal population fluctuation presents a challenge to touristic cities since the number of inhabitants can double according to the season. The aim of this work is to develop a model that correlates the waste collected with the population of the city and also allow cooperation between the inhabitants and the local government. The model allows public managers to evaluate the impact of the seasonal population fluctuation on waste generation and also to improve planning resource utilization throughout the year. The study uses data from the company that collects the garbage in Florianópolis, a Brazilian city that presents the profile of a city that attracts tourists due to numerous beaches and warm weather. The fluctuations are caused by the number of people that come to the city throughout the year for holidays, summer time vacations or business events. Crowdsensing will be accomplished through smartphones with access to an app for data collection, with voluntary participation of the population. Crowdsensing participants can access information collected in waves for this portal. Crowdsensing represents an innovative and participatory approach which involves the population in gathering information to improve the quality of life. The management of crowdsensing solutions plays an essential role given the complexity to foster collaboration, establish available sensors and collect and process the collected data. Practical implications of this tool described in this paper refer, for example, to the management of seasonal tourism in a large municipality, whose public services are impacted by the floating of the population. Crowdsensing and big data support managers in predicting the arrival, permanence, and movement of people in a given urban area. Also, by linking crowdsourced data to databases from other public service providers - e.g., water, garbage collection, electricity, public transport, telecommunications - it is possible to estimate the floating of the population of an urban area affected by seasonal tourism. This approach supports the municipality in increasing the effectiveness of resource allocation while, at the same time, increasing the quality of the service as perceived by citizens and tourists.

Keywords: big data, dashboards, floating population, smart city, urban management solutions

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: M. R. Bhuiyan, S. M. M. Hossain, M. Z. Islam

Abstract:

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is the fastest growing serious developmental disorder characterized by social deficits, communicative difficulties, and repetitive behaviors. ASD is an emerging public health issue globally which is associated with huge financial burden to the family, community and the nation. The aim of this study was to assess the financial burden of family for the children with Autism spectrum Disorder. This cross-sectional study was carried out from July 2015 to June 2016 among 154 children with ASD to assess the financial burden of family. Data were collected by face-to-face interview with semi-structured questionnaire following systematic random sampling technique. Majority (73.4%) children were male and mean (±SD) age was 6.66 ± 2.97 years. Most (88.8%) of the children were from urban areas with average monthly family income Tk. 41785.71±23936.45. Average monthly direct cost of the children was Tk.17656.49 ± 9984.35, while indirect cost was Tk. 13462.90 ± 9713.54 and total treatment cost was Tk. 23076.62 ± 15341.09. Special education cost (Tk. 4871.00), cost of therapy (Tk. 4124.07) and travel cost (Tk. 3988.31) were the major types of direct cost, while loss of income (Tk.14570.18) was the chief indirect cost incurred by the families. The study found that majority (59.8%) of the children attended special schools were incurred Tk.20001-78700 as total treatment cost, which were statistically significant (p<0.001). Again, families with higher monthly family income incurred higher treatment cost (r=0.526, p<0.05). Difference between mean direct and indirect cost was found significant (t=4.190, df=61, p<0.001). According to the analysis of variance, mean difference of father’s educational status among direct cost (F=10.337, p<0.001) and total treatment cost (F=7.841, p<0.001), which were statistically significant. The study revealed that maximum children with ASD were under five years, three-fourth were male. According to monthly family income, maximum family were in middle class. The study recommends cost effective interventions and financial safety-net measures to reduce the financial burden of families for the children with ASD.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, financial burden, direct cost, indirect cost, special education

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl, Yaghob Dinpazhoh, Masoumeh Foroughi

Abstract:

Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is an important element in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions, and analysis of changes in ET₀ is of great significance for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. As ET₀ is an integrated effect of climate variables, increases in air temperature should lead to increases in ET₀. ET₀ estimated by using the globally accepted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method in 18 meteorological stations located in the West of Iran. The trends of ET₀ detected by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The slopes of the trend lines were computed by using the Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed significant increasing as well as decreasing trends in the annual and monthly ET₀. However, ET₀ trends were increasing. In the monthly scale, the number of the increasing trends was more than the number of decreasing trends, in the majority of warm months of the year.

Keywords: climate change, Mann–Kendall, Penman-Monteith method (FAO-56 PM), reference crop evapotranspiration

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Azubuike Ekwere

Abstract:

The shallow and deep aquiferous horizons of the fractured and weathered crystalline basement Oban Massif of south-eastern Nigeria were studied during the dry and wet seasons. The criteria were ascertaining hydrochemistry relative to seasonal and spatial variations across the study area. Results indicate that concentrations of major cations and anions exhibit the order of abundance; Ca>Na>Mg>K and HCO3>SO4>Cl respectively, with minor variations across sampling seasons. Major elements Ca, Mg, Na and K were higher for the shallow aquifers than the deep aquifers across seasons. The major anions Cl, SO4, HCO3, and NO3 were higher for the deep aquifers compared to the shallow ones. Two water types were identified for both aquifer types: Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Ca-Na-Cl-SO4. Most of the parameters considered were within the international limits for drinking, domestic and irrigation purposes. Assessment by use of sodium absorption ratio (SAR), percent sodium (%Na) and the wilcox diagram reveals that the waters are suitable for irrigation purposes.

Keywords: shallow aquifer, deep aquifer, seasonal variation, hydrochemistry, Oban massif, Nigeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 627

Authors: William Adzawla

Abstract:

In the midst of climate variability and change, the role of gender in ensuring food production remains vital. Therefore, this study analysed the gendered productivity among maize farmers, and the effects of climate change and variability as well as livelihood diversification on gendered productivity gap. This involved a total of 619 farmers selected through a multistage sampling procedure. The data was analysed using Oaxaca Blinder decomposition model. From the result, there is a significant productivity gap of 58.8% and 44.8% between male and female heads, and between male heads and female spouses, respectively. About 87.47% and 98.08% of the variations in gendered productivity were explained by resource endowment. While livelihood diversification significantly influenced gendered productivity through endowment and coefficient effect, climate variables significantly affect productivity gap through only coefficient effects. The study concluded that there is a substantial gendered productivity gap among farmers and this is particularly due to differences in endowment. Generally, there is a high potential of reducing gendered productivity gaps through the provision of equal diversification opportunities and reducing females’ vulnerability to climate change. Among the livelihood activities, off-farm activities such as agro-processing and shea butter processing should be promoted. Similarly, the adoption of on-farm adaptation strategies should be promoted among the farmers.

Keywords: climate change and variability, gender, livelihood diversification, oaxaca-blinder decomposition, productivity gap

Procedia PDF Downloads 145