Search results for: confidence intervals

Authors: Emily Moore, Dora Amos, Tracy Ellimah, Natasha Parrott

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Postoperative haematoma is a well-recognised complication of thyroid surgery with an incidence of 1-5%. Haematoma formation causes progressive airway obstruction, necessitating emergency bedside haematoma evacuation in up to ¼ of patients. ENT UK, BAETS and DAS have developed consensus guidelines to improve perioperative care, recommending that all healthcare staff interacting with patients undergoing thyroid surgery should be trained in managing post-thyroidectomy haematoma. The aim was to assess the effectiveness of a hybrid simulation model in improving clinician’s confidence in dealing with this surgical emergency. A hybrid simulation was designed, consisting of a standardised patient wearing a part-task trainer to mimic a post-thyroidectomy haematoma in a real patient. The part-task trainer was an adapted C-spine collar with layers of silicone representing the skin and strap muscles and thickened jelly representing the haematoma. Both the skin and strap muscle layers had to be opened in order to evacuate the haematoma. Boxes have been implemented into the appropriate post operative areas (recovery and surgical wards), which contain a printed algorithm designed to assist in remembering a sequence of steps for haematoma evacuation using the ‘SCOOP’ method (skin exposure, cut sutures, open skin, open muscles, pack wound) along with all the necessary equipment to open the front of the neck. Small-group teaching sessions were delivered by ENT and anaesthetic trainees to members of the multidisciplinary team normally involved in perioperative patient care, which included ENT surgeons, anaesthetists, recovery nurses, HCAs and ODPs. The DESATS acronym of signs and symptoms to recognise (difficulty swallowing, EWS score, swelling, anxiety, tachycardia, stridor) was highlighted. Then participants took part in the hybrid simulation in order to practice this ‘SCOOP’ method of haematoma evacuation. Participants were surveyed using a Likert scale to assess their level of confidence pre- and post teaching session. 30 clinicians took part. Confidence (agreed/strongly agreed) in recognition of post thyroidectomy haematoma improved from 58.6% to 96.5%. Confidence in management improved from 27.5% to 89.7%. All participants successfully decompressed the haematoma. All participants agreed/strongly agreed, that the sessions were useful for their learning. Multidisciplinary team simulation teaching is effective at significantly improving confidence in both the recognition and management of postoperative haematoma. Hybrid simulation sessions are useful and should be incorporated into training for clinicians.

Keywords: thyroid surgery, haematoma, teaching, hybrid simulation

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Authors: M. Manzoor, J. N. Ahmad, R. M. Giblin Davis, N. Javed, M. S. Haider

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The invasive Red Palm Weevil (RPW) (Rhynchophorus ferrugineus [Olivier] (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) is one of the most destructive palm pests in the world. Synthetic pesticides are environmentally hazardous pest control strategies being used in the past with emerging need of eco-friendly biological approaches including microbial entomopathogens for RPW management. The sublethal effects of a single entomopathogenic fungus (EPF) Beauveria bassiana (WG-11) (Ascomycota: Hypocreales) and two entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) species Heterorhabditis bacteriophora (Poinar) and Steinernema carpocapsae (Weiser) (Nematoda: Rhabditida) were evaluated in various combinations against laboratory-reared 3rd, 5th and 8th instar larvae of RPW in laboratory assays. Individual and combined effects of both entomopathogens (EP) were observed after the pre-application of B. bassiana fungus at 1-2-week intervals. A number of parameters were measured after the application of sub-lethal doses of EPF such as diet consumption, development, frass production, mortality, and weight gain. Combined treatments were tested for additive and synergistic effects. Synergism was more frequently observed in B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae combined treatments than in B. bassiana and H. bacteriophora combinations. Early instar larvae of RPW were more susceptible than older instars. Synergistic effects were observed in the 3rd and 5th instars exposed to B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae at 0, 7 and 14-day intervals. Whereas, in 8th instar larvae, the synergistic effect was observed only in B. bassiana and S. carpocapsae treatments after 0 and 7 days intervals. EPN treatments decreased pupation, egg hatching and emergence of adults. Lethal effects of nematodes were also observed in all growth stages of R. ferrugineus. Reduced larval weight, increased larval, pre-pupal and pupal duration, reduced adult weight and life span were observed. Sub-lethal concentrations of both entomopathogens induced variations in the different developmental stages and reduced food consumption, frass production, growth, and weight gain. So, on the basis of results, it is concluded that synthetic pesticides should be replaced with environmentally friendly sustainable biopesticides.

Keywords: H. bacteriophora, S. carpocapsae, B. bassiana, mortality

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Authors: S. Benkraouda, Z. Djelloul-Khedda, B. Yagoubi

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we present a method for early detection of forest fires from a thermal infrared satellite image, using the image matrix of the probability of belonging. The principle of the method is to compare a theoretical mathematical model to an experimental model. We considered that each line of the image matrix, as an embodiment of a non-stationary random process. Since the distribution of pixels in the satellite image is statistically dependent, we divided these lines into small stationary and ergodic intervals to characterize the image by an adequate mathematical model. A standard deviation was chosen to generate random variables, so each interval behaves naturally like white Gaussian noise. The latter has been selected as the mathematical model that represents a set of very majority pixels, which we can be considered as the image background. Before modeling the image, we made a few pretreatments, then the parameters of the theoretical Gaussian model were extracted from the modeled image, these settings will be used to calculate the probability of each interval of the modeled image to belong to the theoretical Gaussian model. The high intensities pixels are regarded as foreign elements to it, so they will have a low probability, and the pixels that belong to the background image will have a high probability. Finally, we did present the reverse of the matrix of probabilities of these intervals for a better fire detection.

Keywords: forest fire, forest fire detection, satellite image, normal distribution, theoretical gaussian model, thermal infrared matrix image

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Triano Nurhikmat

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Along with the progress of science and technology, the development of the industrialized world in Indonesia took place very rapidly. This leads to a process of industrialization of society Indonesia faster with the establishment of the company and the workplace are diverse. Development of the industry relates to the activity of the worker. Where in these work activities do not cover the possibility of an impending crash on either the workers or on a construction project. The cause of the occurrence of industrial accidents was the fault of electrical damage, work procedures, and error technique. The method of an association rule is one of the main techniques in data mining and is the most common form used in finding the patterns of data collection. In this research would like to know how relations of the association between the incidence of any industrial accidents. Therefore, by using methods of analysis association rule patterns associated with combination obtained two iterations item set (2 large item set) when every factor of industrial accidents with a West Jakarta so industrial accidents caused by the occurrence of an electrical value damage = 0.2 support and confidence value = 1, and the reverse pattern with value = 0.2 support and confidence = 0.75.

Keywords: association rule, data mining, industrial accidents, rules

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Authors: Stefanie Siebenhütter

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Male and female speakers use language differently and with varying confidence levels. This paper contrasts gendered differences in language use with socioeconomic status and age factors. It specifically examines how Kui minority language use and competence are conditioned by the variable of gender and discusses potential reasons for this variation by examining gendered language awareness and sociolinguistic attitudes. Moreover, it discusses whether women in Kui society function as 'leaders of linguistic change', as represented in Labov’s sociolinguistic model. It discusses whether societal role expectations in collectivistic cultures influence the model of linguistic change. The findings reveal current Kui speaking preferences and give predictions on the prospective language use, which is a stable situation of multilingualism because the current Kui speakers will socialize and teach the prospective Kui speakers in the near future. It further confirms that Lao is losing importance in Kui speaker’s (female’s) daily life.

Keywords: gender, identity construction, language change, minority language, multilingualism, sociolinguistics, social Networks

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Authors: Kristy Howells, Catherine Meehan

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This position paper presents current research findings into the proposed gap between teachers’ and practitioners’ thinking and acting about physical activity health and well-being in childhood. Within the new Primary curriculum, there is a focus on sustained physical activity within a Physical Education and healthy lifestyles in Personal, Health, Social and Emotional lessons, but there is no curriculum guidance about what sustained physical activity is and how it is defined. The current health guidance on birth to five suggests that children should not be inactive for long periods and specify light and energetic activities, however there is the a suggested period of time per day for young children to achieve, but the guidance does not specify how this should be measured. The challenge therefore for teachers and practitioners is their own confidence and understanding of what “good / moderate intensity” physical activity and healthy living looks like for children and the children understanding what they are doing. There is limited research about children from birth to eight years and also the perceptions and attitudes of those who work with this age group of children, however it was found that children at times can identify different levels of activity and it has been found that children can identify healthy foods and good choices for healthy living at a basic level. Authors have also explored teachers’ beliefs about teaching and learning and found that teachers could act in accordance to their beliefs about their subject area only when their subject knowledge, understanding and confidence of that area is high. It has been proposed that confidence and competence of practitioners and teachers to integrate ‘well-being’ within the learning settings has been reported as being low. This may be due to them not having high subject knowledge. It has been suggested that children’s life chances are improved by focusing on well-being in their earliest years. This includes working with parents and families, and being aware of the environmental contexts that may impact on children’s wellbeing. The key is for practitioners and teachers to know how to implement these ideas effectively as these key workers have a profound effect on young children as role models and due to the time of waking hours spent with them. The position paper is part of a longitudinal study at Canterbury Christ Church University and currently we will share the research findings from the initial questionnaire (online, postal, and in person) that explored and evaluated the knowledge, competence and confidence levels of practitioners and teachers as to the structure and planning of sustained physical activity and healthy lifestyles and how this progresses with the children’s age.

Keywords: health, perceptions, physical activity, well-being

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Authors: Mohanad Moustafa, Julia Sieberer, Rhys Davies

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Background: Orbital compartment syndrome (OCS) is a sight-threatening Ophthalmologic emergency caused by rapidly increasing intraorbital pressure. It is usually caused by a retrobulbar hemorrhage as a result of trauma. If not treated in a timely manner, permanent vision loss can occur. Lateral canthotomy and cantholysis are minor procedures that can be performed bedside with equipment available in the emergency department. The aim of the procedure is to release the attachments between the suspensory ligaments of the eye and the bony orbital wall, leading to a decrease in intraorbital pressure and preventing irreversible loss of vision. As most Ophthalmologists across the UK provide non-resident on-call service, this may lead to a delay in the treatment of OCS and stresses the need for Emergency medical staff to be able to provide this sight-saving procedure independently. Aim: To survey current training, experience, and confidence levels among Emergency Medicine doctors in performing emergency lateral canthotomy and to establish whether these variables change the following teaching from experienced ophthalmologists. RESULTS: Most EM registrars had little to no experience in performing lateral canthotomy and cantholysis. The majority of them showed a significant increase in their confidence to perform the procedure following ophthalmic-led teaching. The survey also showed that the registrars felt such training should be added to/part of the EM curriculum. Conclusion: The involvement of Ophthalmologists in the teaching of EM doctors to recognise and treat OCS independently may prevent delays in treatment and reduce the risk of permanent sight loss. This project showed potential in improving patient care and will lead to a National Survey of EM doctors across the UK.

Keywords: lateral canthotomy, retrobulbar hemorrhage, Ophthalmology, orbital compartment syndrome, sight loss, blindness

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Authors: Zahid Manzoor, Shaukat Hussain Munawar, Zahid Iqbal, Imran Ahmad Khan, Abdul Aziz, Hafiz Muhammad Qasim

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The present study was aimed to investigate the pharmacokinetics behavior and optimal dosage regimen of danofloxacin in 8 adult healthy buffaloes of local breed (Nili Ravi) following single intravenous administration at the dose of 2.5 mg/kg body weight. Plasma drug concentrations at various time intervals were measured by HPLC method. In vitro plasma protein binding was determined employing the ultrafiltration technique. The distribution and elimination of danofloxacin was rapid, as indicated by the values (Mean±SD) of distribution half-life (t1/2α = 0.25±0.09 hours) and elimination half life (t1/2β = 3.26±0.43 hours), respectively. Volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) was 1.14±0.12 L/kg, displaying its extensive distribution into various body fluids and tissues. The high value of AUC (9.80±2.14 µg/ml.hr) reflected the vast area of the body covered by drug concentration. The mean residence time was noted to be 4.78±0.52 hours. On the basis of pharmacokinetic parameters, a suitable intravenous regimen for danofloxacin in adult buffaloes would be 6.5 mg/kg to be repeated after 12 hours intervals. The present study is the foremost pharmacokinetic study of danofloxacin in the local species which would provide the valueable contribution in the local manufacturing of danofloxacin in Pakistan in future.

Keywords: danofloxacin, pharmacokinetics, plasma protein binding, buffaloes, dosage regimen

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Authors: Yutong Xu, Wanting Zhang, Jia Wang, Zihan Guo, Weiguang Ma

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Background: The resilience education of intern nursing students has significant implications for the development and improvement of the nursing workforce. The clinical internship period is a critical time for enhancing resilience. Aims: To evaluate the resilience level of Chinese nursing interns and identify the factors affecting resilience early in their careers. Methods: The cross-sectional study design was adopted. From March 2022 to May 2023, 512 nursing interns in tertiary care hospitals were surveyed online with the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale, the Clinical Learning Environment scale for Nurse, and the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale. Structural equation modeling was used to clarify the relationships among these factors. Indirect effects were tested using bootstrapped Confidence Intervals. Results: The nursing interns showed a moderately high level of resilience[M(SD)=70.15(19.90)]. Gender, scholastic attainment, had a scholarship, career adaptability and clinical learning environment were influencing factors of nursing interns’ resilience. Career adaptability and clinical learning environment positively and directly affected their resilience level (β = 0.58, 0.12, respectively, p＜0.01). career adaptability also positively affected career adaptability (β = 0.26, p < 0.01), and played a fully mediating role in the relationship between clinical learning environment and resilience. Conclusion: Career adaptability can enhance the influence of clinical learning environment on resilience. The promotion of career adaptability and the clinical teaching environment should be the potential strategies for nursing interns to improve their resilience, especially for those female nursing interns with low academic performance. Implications for Nursing Educators Nursing educators should pay attention to the cultivation of nursing students' resilience; for example, by helping them integrate to the clinical learning environment and improving their career adaptability. Reporting Method: The STROBE criteria were used to report the results of the observations critically. Patient or Public Contribution No patient or public contribution.

Keywords: resilience, clinical learning environment, career adaptability, nursing interns

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Authors: Blanche Aguida, Marootpong Pooam, Nathalie Jourdan, Margaret Ahmad

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COVID-19-related morbidity is associated with exaggerated inflammation and cytokine production in the lungs, leading to acute respiratory failure. The cellular mechanisms underlying these so-called ‘cytokine storms’ are regulated through the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) signaling pathway and by reactive oxygen species (ROS). Both light (photobiomodulation) and magnetic fields (e.g., pulsed electromagnetic field) stimulation are non-invasive therapies known to confer anti-inflammatory effects and regulate ROS signaling pathways. Here we show that daily exposure to two 10-minute intervals of moderate-intensity infra-red light significantly lowered the inflammatory response induced via the TLR4 receptor signaling pathway in human cell cultures. Anti-inflammatory effects were likewise achieved by electromagnetic field exposure of cells to daily 10-minute intervals of either pulsed electromagnetic fields (PEMF) or to low-level static magnetic fields. Because current illumination and electromagnetic field therapies have no known side effects and are already approved for some medical uses, we have here developed protocols for verification in clinical trials of COVID 19 infection. These treatments are affordable, simple to implement, and may help to resolve the acute respiratory distress of COVID 19 patients both in the home and in the hospital.

Keywords: COVID 19, electromagnetic fields therapy, inflammation, photobiomodulation therapy

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Authors: Wanghongshu Zhou

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This study aims to explore the relationship between the L2MSS and WTC among Chinese non-English major students in order to provide pedagogical implications for English as a Foreign Language (EFL) classrooms in Chinese universities. By employing a mixed methods approach, we involved 103 Chinese non-English major students from a typical university in China, conducted questionnaire survey to measure their levels of L2WTC and L2MSS level, and then analyzed the correlation between the two above mentioned variables. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight participants to provide a deeper understanding and explanation of the questionnaire data. Findings show that 1) Chinese non-English major students’ ideal L2 self and L2 learning experience could positively predict their L2 WTC in EFL class; 2) Chinese non-English major students’ ought-to L2 self might have no significant impact on their L2 WTC in EFL class; and 3) self-confidence might be another main factor that will influence Chinese non-English major students’ L2 WTC in EFL class. These findings might shed light on the second language acquisition field and provide pedagogical recommendations for pre-service as well as in-service EFL teachers.

Keywords: L2 willingness to communicate, L2 motivation, self-confidence, Chinese non-English major students

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Authors: Rafia Asghar, Abdul Hafeez

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The current research was related with natural dyes’ extraction from the powder of Neem (Azadirachta indica) bark and studied characterization of this dye under microwave radiation’s influence. Both cotton fabric and dyeing powder were exposed to microwave rays for different time intervals (2minutes, 4 minutes, 6 minutes, 8 minutes and 10 minutes) using conventional oven. Aqueous, 60% Methanol and Ethyl Acetate solubilized extracts obtained from Neem (Azadirachta indica) bark were also exposed to different time intervals (2minutes, 4 minutes, 6 minutes, 8 minutes and 10 minutes) of microwave rays exposure. Pre, meta and post mordanting with Alum (2%, 4%, 6%, 8%, and 10%) was done to improve color strength of the extracted dye. Exposure of Neem (Azadirachta indica) bark extract and cotton to microwave rays enhanced the extraction process and dyeing process by reducing extraction time, dyeing time and dyeing temperature. Microwave rays treatment had a very strong influence on color fastness and color strength properties of cotton that was dyes using Neem (Azadirachta indica) bark for 30 minutes and dyeing cotton with that Neem bark extract for 75 minutes at 30°C. Among pre, meta and post mordanting, results indicated that 5% concentration of Alum in meta mordanting exhibited maximum color strength.

Keywords: dyes, natural dyeing, ecofriendly dyes, microwave treatment

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Authors: Y. R. Lai, J. C. Jehng, T. T. Chang

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Team is a popular job design in the management settings. Because people on a team need to work together to complete a lot of tasks, the interaction between team members strongly influences team effectiveness. The study examines the effect of social capital and empowering leadership on team cohesion. There are three facets of social capital: structural facet, relational facet, and cognitive facet. Empowering leadership includes enhancing the meaningfulness of work, fostering participation in decision making, expressing confidence in high performance, and providing autonomy from bureaucratic constraints. Data were collected from 181 team members of 47 teams in the real estate agency industry. The results show that the relational social capital, enhancing the meaningfulness of work, and providing autonomy from bureaucratic constraints are positively related to two dimensions of team cohesion: sense of belonging and feelings of moral. Additionally, expressing confidence in high performance is negatively related to sense of belonging.

Keywords: social capital, empowering leadership, team cohesion, team effectiveness

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Authors: Anthony J. Kondracki, Bonzo Reddick, Jennifer L. Barkin

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Background: Many pregnancies in the United States are affected each year with the most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and Treponema pallidum (TP, syphilis), and the rate of congenital syphilis has reached a 20-year high. We sought to estimate the prevalence of CT, NG, and TP in pregnancy and the risk of preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks gestation) and low birthweight (LBW) (<2500g) deliveries according to utilization of prenatal care (PNC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study was based on the 2020 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality File restricted to singleton births (N=3,512,858). We estimated the prevalence of CT, NG, TP, PTBand LBW across timing and the number of prenatal care (PNC) visits attended. In multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted odds ratios of PTB and LBW were assessed according to STIs and PNC status. E-values, based on effect size estimates and the lower bound of the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association, examined the potential impact of unmeasured confounding. Results: CT (1.8%) was most prevalent in pregnancy, followed by NG (0.3%) and TP (0.1%). The strongest predictors of PTB and LBW were maternal NG (12.2% and 12.1%, respectively), late initiation/no PNC (8.5% and 7.6%, respectively), and ≤10 prenatal visits (13.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The odds of PTB and LBW were 2.5- to 3-fold greater for each STI in women who received ≤10 compared to >10 prenatal visits. E-values demonstrated the minimum strength of potential unmeasured confounding necessary to explain away observed associations. Conclusions: Timely initiation and receipt of recommended number of prenatal visits benefits screening and treatment of all women for STIs, including NG to substantially reduce infant morbidity and mortality related to PTB and LBW among infants born during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, sexually transmitted infections, preterm birth, low birthweight, prenatal care

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Authors: Mathew Wakefield, Matthew Mitchell, Lisa Wise, Christopher McCarthy

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The properties of memory representations in artificial neural networks have cognitive implications. Distributed representations that encode instances as a pattern of activity across layers of nodes afford memory compression and enforce the selection of a single point in instance space. These encoding schemes also appear to distort the representational space, as well as trading off the ability to validate that input information is within the bounds of past experience. In contrast, a localist representation which encodes some meaningful information into individual nodes in a network layer affords less memory compression while retaining the integrity of the representational space. This allows the validity of an input to be determined. The validity (or familiarity) of input along with the capacity of localist representation for multiple instance selections affords a memory sampling approach that dynamically balances the bias-variance trade-off. When the input is familiar, bias may be high by referring only to the most similar instances in memory. When the input is less familiar, variance can be increased by referring to more instances that capture a broader range of features. Using this approach in a localist instance memory network, an experiment demonstrates a relationship between representational conflict, generalization performance, and memorization demand. Relatively small sampling ranges produce the best performance on a classic machine learning dataset of visual objects. Combining memory validity with conflict detection produces a reliable confidence judgement that can separate responses with high and low error rates. Confidence can also be used to signal the need for supervisory input. Using this judgement, the need for supervised learning as well as memory encoding can be substantially reduced with only a trivial detriment to classification performance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, representation, memory, conflict monitoring, confidence

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Authors: Gabriel Efomeh Omolaiye, Jimoh Ajadi, Olatunji Seminu, Yusuf Ayoola Jimoh, Ubulom Daniel

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Identification and characterization of petrophysical properties of reservoirs in the Bima Formation were undertaken to understand their spatial distribution and impacts on hydrocarbon saturation in the highly heterolithic siliciclastic sequence. The study was carried out using nine well logs from Maiduguri and Baga/Lake sub-basins within the Borno Basin. The different log curves were combined to decipher the lithological heterogeneity of the serrated sand facies and to aid the geologic correlation of sand bodies within the sub-basins. Evaluation of the formation reveals largely undifferentiated to highly serrated and lenticular sand bodies from which twelve reservoirs named Bima Sand-1 to Bima Sand-12 were identified. The reservoir sand bodies are bifurcated by shale beds, which reduced their thicknesses variably from 0.61 to 6.1 m. The shale content in the sand bodies ranged from 11.00% (relatively clean) to high shale content of 88.00%. The formation also has variable porosity values, with calculated total porosity ranged as low as 10.00% to as high as 35.00%. Similarly, effective porosity values spanned between 2.00 to 24.00%. The irregular porosity values also accounted for a wide range of field average permeability estimates computed for the formation, which measured between 0.03 to 319.49 mD. Hydrocarbon saturation (Sh) in the thin lenticular sand bodies also varied from 40.00 to 78.00%. Hydrocarbon was encountered in three intervals in Ga-1, four intervals in Da-1, two intervals in Ar-1, and one interval in Ye-1. Ga-1 well encountered 30.78 m thick of hydrocarbon column in 14 thin sand lobes in Bima Sand-1, with thicknesses from 0.60 m to 5.80 m and average saturation of 51.00%, while Bima Sand-2 intercepted 45.11 m thick of hydrocarbon column in 12 thin sand lobes with an average saturation of 61.00% and Bima Sand-9 has 6.30 m column in 4 thin sand lobes. Da-1 has hydrocarbon in Bima Sand-8 (5.30 m, Sh of 58.00% in 5 sand lobes), Bima Sand-10 (13.50 m, Sh of 52.00% in 6 sand lobes), Bima Sand-11 (6.20 m, Sh of 58.00% in 2 sand lobes) and Bima Sand-12 (16.50 m, Sh of 66% in 6 sand lobes). In the Ar-1 well, hydrocarbon occurs in Bima Sand-3 (2.40 m column, Sh of 48% in a sand lobe) and Bima Sand-9 (6.0 m, Sh of 58% in a sand lobe). Ye-1 well only intersected 0.5 m hydrocarbon in Bima Sand-1 with 78% saturation. Although Bima Formation has variable saturation of hydrocarbon, mainly gas in Maiduguri, and Baga/Lake sub-basins of the research area, its highly thin serrated sand beds, coupled with very low effective porosity and permeability in part, would pose a significant exploitation challenge. The sediments were deposited in a fluvio-lacustrine environment, resulting in a very thinly laminated or serrated alternation of sand and shale beds lithofacies.

Keywords: Bima, Chad Basin, fluvio-lacustrine, lithofacies, serrated sand

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Authors: Lyndsee Baumann-Birkbeck, Sohil A. Khan, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie, Gary D. Grant

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Technology-enhanced education tools are being rapidly integrated into health programs globally. These tools provide an interactive platform for students and can be used to deliver topics in various modes including games and simulations. Simulations are of particular interest to healthcare education, where they are employed to enhance clinical knowledge and help to bridge the gap between theory and practice. Simulations will often assess competencies for practical tasks, yet limited research examines the effects of simulation on student perceptions of their learning. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of an interactive virtual patient simulation for pharmacology education and clinical practice on student knowledge, skills and confidence. Ethics approval for the study was obtained from Griffith University Research Ethics Committee (PHM/11/14/HREC). The simulation was intended to replicate the pharmacy environment and patient interaction. The content was designed to enhance knowledge of proton-pump inhibitor pharmacology, role in therapeutics and safe supply to patients. The tool was deployed into a third-year clinical pharmacology and therapeutics course. A number of core practice areas were examined including the competency domains of questioning, counselling, referral and product provision. Baseline measures of student self-reported knowledge, skills and confidence were taken prior to the simulation using a specifically designed questionnaire. A more extensive questionnaire was deployed following the virtual patient simulation, which also included measures of student engagement with the activity. A quiz assessing student factual and conceptual knowledge of proton-pump inhibitor pharmacology and related counselling information was also included in both questionnaires. Sixty-one students (response rate >95%) from two cohorts (2014 and 2015) participated in the study. Chi-square analyses were performed and data analysed using Fishers exact test. Results demonstrate that student knowledge, skills and confidence within the competency domains of questioning, counselling, referral and product provision, show improvement following the implementation of the virtual patient simulation. Statistically significant (p<0.05) improvement occurred in ten of the possible twelve self-reported measurement areas. Greatest magnitude of improvement occurred in the area of counselling (student confidence p<0.0001). Student confidence in all domains (questioning, counselling, referral and product provision) showed a marked increase. Student performance in the quiz also improved, demonstrating a 10% improvement overall for pharmacology knowledge and clinical practice following the simulation. Overall, 85% of students reported the simulation to be engaging and 93% of students felt the virtual patient simulation enhanced learning. The data suggests that the interactive virtual patient simulation developed for clinical pharmacology and therapeutics education enhanced students knowledge, skill and confidence, with respect to the competency domains of questioning, counselling, referral and product provision. These self-reported measures appear to translate to learning outcomes, as demonstrated by the improved student performance in the quiz assessment item. Future research of education using virtual simulation should seek to incorporate modern quantitative measures of student learning and engagement, such as eye tracking.

Keywords: clinical simulation, education, pharmacology, simulation, virtual learning

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Authors: Sathyaseelan Subramaniam, Jacqueline Bober, Jennifer Chao, Shahriar Zehtabchi

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Background: Emergency physicians frequently evaluate skin and soft tissue infections in order to differentiate abscess from cellulitis. This helps determine which patients will benefit from incision and drainage. Our objective was to determine the operating characteristics of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) compared to clinical examination in identifying abscesses in emergency department (ED) patients with features of skin and soft tissue infections. Methods: We performed a comprehensive search in the following databases: Medline, Web of Science, EMBASE, CINAHL and Cochrane Library. Trials were included if they compared the operating characteristics of POCUS with clinical examination in identifying skin and soft tissue abscesses. Trials that included patients with oropharyngeal abscesses or that requiring abscess drainage in the operating room were excluded. The presence of an abscess was determined by pus drainage. No pus seen on incision or resolution of symptoms without pus drainage at follow up, determined the absence of an abscess. Quality of included trials was assessed using GRADE criteria. Operating characteristics of POCUS are reported as sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood (LR+) and negative likelihood (LR-) ratios and the respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). Summary measures were calculated by generating a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model (HSROC). Results: Out of 3203 references identified, 5 observational studies with 615 patients in aggregate were included (2 adults and 3 pediatrics). We rated the quality of 3 trials as low and 2 as very low. The operating characteristics of POCUS and clinical examination in identifying soft tissue abscesses are presented in the table. The HSROC for POCUS revealed a sensitivity of 96% (95% CI = 89-98%), specificity of 79% (95% CI = 71-86), LR+ of 4.6 (95% CI = 3.2-6.8), and LR- of 0.06 (95% CI = 0.02-0.2). Conclusion: Existing evidence indicates that POCUS is useful in identifying abscesses in ED patients with skin or soft tissue infections.

Keywords: abscess, point-of-care ultrasound, pocus, skin and soft tissue infection

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Authors: Van Truong Pham

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Background: Self-management was described as a potential strategy for blood pressure control in patients with hypertension. However, the effects of self-management interventions on blood pressure, self-efficacy, medication adherence, and body mass index (BMI) in older adults with hypertension have not been systematically evaluated. We evaluated the effects of self-management interventions on systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), self-efficacy, medication adherence, and BMI in hypertensive older adults. Methods: We followed the recommended guidelines of preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Searches in electronic databases including CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, Ovid-Medline, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and other sources were performed to include all relevant studies up to April 2019. Studies selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by two reviewers independently. We summarized intervention effects as Hedges' g values and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a random-effects model. Data were analyzed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software 2.0. Results: Twelve randomized controlled trials met our inclusion criteria. The results revealed that self-management interventions significantly improved blood pressure control, self-efficacy, medication adherence, whereas the effect of self-management on BMI was not significant in older adult patients with hypertension. The following Hedges' g (effect size) values were obtained: SBP, -0.34 (95% CI, -0.51 to -0.17, p < 0.001); DBP, -0.18 (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.05, p < 0.001); self-efficacy, 0.93 (95%CI, 0.50 to 1.36, p < 0.001); medication adherence, 1.72 (95%CI, 0.44 to 3.00, p=0.008); and BMI, -0.57 (95%CI, -1.62 to 0.48, p = 0.286). Conclusions: Self-management interventions significantly improved blood pressure control, self-efficacy, and medication adherence. However, the effects of self-management on obesity control were not supported by the evidence. Healthcare providers should implement self-management interventions to strengthen patients' role in managing their health care.

Keywords: self-management, meta-analysis, blood pressure control, self-efficacy, medication adherence, body mass index

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Authors: Abigail M. Csik, Gabriel A. Radvansky

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As people read through event-based narratives, they construct an event model that captures information about the characters, goals, location, time, and causality. For many reasons, memory for such narratives is represented at different levels, namely, the surface form, textbase, and event model levels. Rereading has been shown to decrease surface form memory, while, at the same time, increasing textbase and event model memories. More generally, distributed practice has consistently shown memory benefits over massed practice for different types of materials, including texts. However, little research has investigated distributed practice of narratives at different inter-study intervals and these effects on these three levels of memory. Recent work in our lab has indicated that there may be dramatic changes in patterns of forgetting around one week, which may affect the three levels of memory. The present experiment aimed to determine the effects of rereading on the three levels of memory as a factor of whether the texts were reread before versus after one week. Participants (N = 42) read a set of stories, re-read them either before or after one week (with an inter-study interval of three days, seven days, or fourteen days), and then took a recognition test, from which the three levels of representation were derived. Signal detection results from this study reveal that differential patterns at the three levels as a factor of whether the narratives were re-read prior to one week or after one week. In particular, an ANOVA revealed that surface form memory was lower (p = .08) while textbase (p = .02) and event model memory (p = .04) were greater if narratives were re-read 14 days later compared to memory when narratives were re-read 3 days later. These results have implications for what type of memory benefits from distributed practice at various inter-study intervals.

Keywords: memory, event cognition, distributed practice, consolidation

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Authors: Stepan Papacek, Jiri Jablonsky, Radek Kana, Ctirad Matonoha, Stefan Kindermann

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FRAP (Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching) is a widely used measurement technique to determine the mobility of fluorescent molecules within living cells. While the experimental setup and protocol for FRAP experiments are usually fixed, data processing part is still under development. In this paper, we formulate and solve the problem of data selection which enhances the processing of FRAP images. We introduce the concept of the irrelevant data set, i.e., the data which are almost not reducing the confidence interval of the estimated parameters and thus could be neglected. Based on sensitivity analysis, we both solve the problem of the optimal data space selection and we find specific conditions for optimizing an important experimental design factor, e.g., the radius of bleach spot. Finally, a theorem announcing less precision of the integrated data approach compared to the full data case is proven; i.e., we claim that the data set represented by the FRAP recovery curve lead to a larger confidence interval compared to the spatio-temporal (full) data.

Keywords: FRAP, inverse problem, parameter identification, sensitivity analysis, optimal experimental design

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Authors: Laura C. Dapp, Claudia M. Roebers

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Being physically active has many benefits for children and adolescents. It is crucial for various aspects of physical and mental health, the development of a healthy self-concept, and also positively influences academic performance and school achievement. In addressing the still incomplete understanding of the link between physical activity (PA) and academic achievement, the current study scrutinized the open issue of how PA has to be implemented to positively affect mathematical outcomes in N = 138 fourth graders. Therefore, the current study distinguished between structured PA (formal, organized, adult-led exercise and deliberate sports practice) and unstructured PA (non-formal, playful, peer-led physically active play and sports activities). Results indicated that especially structured PA has the potential to contribute to mathematical outcomes. Although children spent almost twice as much time engaging in unstructured PA as compared to structured PA, only structured PA was significantly related to mathematical achievement as well as to mathematical self-concept. Furthermore, the pending issue concerning the quantity of PA needed to enhance children’s mathematical achievement was addressed. As to that, results indicated that the amount of time spent in structured PA constitutes a critical factor in accounting for mathematical outcomes, since children engaging in PA for two hours or more a week were shown to be both the ones with the highest mathematical self-concept as well as those attaining the highest mathematical achievement scores. Finally, the present study investigated the indirect effect of PA on mathematical achievement by controlling for the mathematical self-concept as a mediating variable. The results of a maximum likelihood mediation analysis with a 2’000 resampling bootstrapping procedure for the 95% confidence intervals revealed a full mediation, indicating that PA improves mathematical self-concept, which, in turn, positively affects mathematical achievement. Thus, engaging in high amounts of structured PA constitutes an advantageous leisure activity for children and adolescents, not only to enhance their physical health but also to foster their self-concept in a way that is favorable and encouraging for promoting their academic achievement. Note: The content of this abstract is partially based on a paper published elswhere by the authors.

Keywords: Academic Achievement, Mathematical Performance, Physical Activity, Self-Concept

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Authors: V. M. B. K. T. Malwanage, S. Samita

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Core stability is one of the major determinants that contribute to preventing injuries, enhance performance, and improve quality of life of the human. Endurance of the four major muscle groups of the central ‘core’ of the human body is identified as the most reliable determinant of core stability amongst the other numerous causes which contribute to readily make one’s core stability. This study aimed to develop a ‘Core Stability Index’ to confer a single value for an individual’s core stability based on the four endurance test scores. Since it is possible that at least some of the test scores are not independent, possibility of constructing a single index using the multivariate method exploratory factor analysis was investigated in the study. The study sample was consisted of 400 healthy young individuals with the mean age of 23.74 ± 1.51 years and mean BMI (Body Mass Index) of 21.1 ± 4.18. The correlation analysis revealed highly significant (P < 0.0001) correlations between test scores and thus construction an index using these highly inter related test scores using the technique factor analysis was justified. The mean values of all test scores were significantly different between males and females (P < 0.0001), and therefore two separate core stability indices were constructed for the two gender groups. Moreover, having eigen values 3.103 and 2.305 for males and females respectively, indicated one factor exists for all four test scores and thus a single factor based index was constructed. The 95% reference intervals constructed using the index scores were -1.64 to 2.00 and -1.56 to 2.29 for males and females respectively. These intervals can effectively be used to diagnose those who need improvement in core stability. The practitioners should find that with a single value measure, they could be more consistent among themselves.

Keywords: construction of indices, endurance test scores, muscle endurance, quality of life

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Authors: Angad Arora

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In production operations/manufacturing, a cell or line is typically a bunch of similar machines (computer numerical control (CNCs), advanced cutting, 3D printing or special purpose machines. For qualifying a typical manufacturing line /cell / new process, Ideally, we need a sample of parts that can be flown through the process and then we make a judgment on the health of the line/cell. However, with huge volumes and mass production scope, such as in the mobile phone industry, for example, the actual cells or lines can go in thousands and to qualify each one of them with statistical confidence means utilizing samples that are very large and eventually add to product /manufacturing cost + huge waste if the parts are not intended to be customer shipped. To solve this, we come up with 2 steps statistical approach. We start with a small sample size and then objectively evaluate whether the process needs additional samples or not. For example, if a process is producing bad parts and we saw those samples early, then there is a high chance that the process will not meet the desired yield and there is no point in keeping adding more samples. We used this hypothesis and came up with 2 steps binomial testing approach. Further, we also prove through results that we can achieve an 18-25% reduction in samples while keeping the same statistical confidence.

Keywords: statistics, data science, manufacturing process qualification, production planning

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Authors: Razan Salem

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Men and women are different, and so their investment behaviors may also vary. To the author’s best knowledge, women's investment behavior and its association with demographic factors have not been explored directly in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly in respect to the Arab region. Thus, this study extends the literature by focusing on examining the association of demographic factors (age, annual income, and education) with Arab women’s investment behavior. To achieve the study’s aim, the researcher distributed 600 close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of Arab male and female individual investors in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan; using Kruskal-Wallis H Test and the Mann-Whitney U Test to analyze the data. The findings reveal that age, education, and level of income are associated with Arab women’s investment behavior. Educational level and level of income are positively associated with Arab women investment confidence level. On the contrary, age is negatively associated with Arab women financial risk tolerance. According to annual income, Arab women with lower incomes have lower confidence and investment literacy levels. Overall, the study concludes that age, income, and education are important demographic factors that must be considered when investigating the investment behavior of women in the Arab region.

Keywords: Arab region, demographic factors, investment behavior, women investors

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Authors: Abdalla Manur, Daniel Offin, Alessandro Arsie

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In this paper, we study the extension of the minimizing equal mass parallelogram solutions which was derived by Chen in 2001. Chen’s solution was minimizing for one quarter of the period [0; T], where numerical integration had been used in his proof. This paper focuses on extending the minimization property to intervals of time [0; 2T] and [0; 4T].

Keywords: action, Hamiltoian, N-body, symmetry

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Authors: Omid Giahi, Ebrahim Darvishi, Mahdi Akbarzadeh

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Introduction: Occupational low back pain (LBP) is one of the most prevalent work-related musculoskeletal disorders in which a lot of risk factors are involved that. The present study focuses on the relation between personal, psycho-social and occupational risk factors and LBP severity in industrial workers. Materials and Methods: This research was a case-control study which was conducted in Kurdistan province. 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 39.9 ± 10.45) with LBP were selected as the case group, and 100 workers (Mean Age ± SD of 37.2 ± 8.5) without LBP were assigned into the control group. All participants were selected from various industrial units, and they had similar occupational conditions. The required data including demographic information (BMI, smoking, alcohol, and family history), occupational (posture, mental workload (MWL), force, vibration and repetition), and psychosocial factors (stress, occupational satisfaction and security) of the participants were collected via consultation with occupational medicine specialists, interview, and the related questionnaires and also the NASA-TLX software and REBA worksheet. Chi-square test, logistic regression and structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to analyze the data. For analysis of data, IBM Statistics SPSS 24 and Mplus6 software have been used. Results: 114 (77%) of the individuals were male and 86 were (23%) female. Mean Career length of the Case Group and Control Group were 10.90 ± 5.92, 9.22 ± 4.24, respectively. The statistical analysis of the data revealed that there was a significant correlation between the Posture, Smoking, Stress, Satisfaction, and MWL with occupational LBP. The odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) derived from a logistic regression model were 2.7 (1.27-2.24) and 2.5 (2.26-5.17) and 3.22 (2.47-3.24) for Stress, MWL, and Posture, respectively. Also, the SEM analysis of the personal, psycho-social and occupational factors with LBP revealed that there was a significant correlation. Conclusion: All three broad categories of risk factors simultaneously increase the risk of occupational LBP in the workplace. But, the risks of Posture, Stress, and MWL have a major role in LBP severity. Therefore, prevention strategies for persons in jobs with high risks for LBP are required to decrease the risk of occupational LBP.

Keywords: industrial workers occupational, low back pain, occupational risk factors, psychosocial factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Razan Salem

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Gender plays a vital role in the stock markets because men and women differ in their behavior when investing in stocks. Accordingly, the role of gender differences in investment behavior is an increasingly important strand in the field of behavioral finance research. The investment behaviors of women relative to men have been examined in the behavioral finance literature, mainly for comparison purposes. Women's roles in the stock market have not been examined in the behavioral finance literature, however, particularly with respect to the Arab region. This study aims to contribute towards a better understanding of the investment behavior of Arab women (in regards to their risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) relative to Arab men; using a sample from Arab women and men investors living in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. In order to achieve the study's main aim, the researcher used non-parametric tests, as Mann-Whitney U test, along with frequency distribution analysis to analyze the study’s primary data. The researcher distributed close-ended online questionnaires to a sample of 550 Arab male and female individuals investing in stocks in both Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The results confirm that the sample Arab women invest less in stocks compared to Arab men due to their risk-averse behaviors and limited confidence levels. The results also reveal that due to Arab women’s very low investment literacy levels, they fear from taking the risk and invest often in stocks relative to Arab men. Overall, the study’s main variables (risk tolerance, investment confidence, and investment literacy levels) have a combined effect on the investment behavior of Arab women and their limited participation in the stock market. Hence, this study is one of the very first studies that indicate the combined effect of the three main variables (which are usually studied separately in the existing literature) on the investment behavior of women, particularly Arab women. This study makes three important contributions to the growing literature on gender differences in investment behavior. First, while the behavioral finance literature documents evidence on gender differences in investment behaviors in many developed countries, there are very limited studies that investigate such differences in Arab countries. Arab women investors, generally, are ignored from the behavioral finance literature due probably to cultural barriers and data collection difficulties. Thus, this study extends the literature to include Arab women and their investment behaviors when trading stock relative to Arab men. Moreover, the study associates women investment literacy and confidence levels with their financial risk behaviors and participation in the stock market. This study provides direct evidence on Arab women's investment behaviors when trading stocks. Overall, studying Arab women investors is important to investigate whether the investment behavior identified for Western women investors are also found in Arab women investors.

Keywords: Arab women, gender differences, investment behavior, stock markets

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Authors: Levent Dumenci, Laura A. Siminoff

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Health literacy has been shown to predict a variety of health outcomes. Reliable identification of persons with limited cancer health literacy (LCHL) has been proved questionable with existing instruments using an arbitrary cut point along a continuum. The CHLT-6, however, uses a latent mixture modeling approach to identify persons with LCHL. The purpose of this study was to estimate two-week and six-month stability of identifying persons with LCHL using the CHLT-6 with a discrete latent variable approach as the underlying measurement structure. Using a test-retest design, the CHLT-6 was administered to cancer patients with two-week (N=98) and six-month (N=51) intervals. The two-week and six-month latent test-retest agreements were 89% and 88%, respectively. The chance-corrected latent agreements estimated from Dumenci’s latent kappa were 0.62 (95% CI: 0.41 – 0.82) and .47 (95% CI: 0.14 – 0.80) for the two-week and six-month intervals, respectively. High levels of latent test-retest agreement between limited and adequate categories of cancer health literacy construct, coupled with moderate to good levels of change-corrected latent agreements indicated that the CHLT-6 classification of limited versus adequate cancer health literacy is relatively stable over time. In conclusion, the measurement structure underlying the instrument allows for estimating classification errors circumventing limitations due to arbitrary approaches adopted by all other instruments. The CHLT-6 can be used to identify persons with LCHL in oncology clinics and intervention studies to accurately estimate treatment effectiveness.

Keywords: limited cancer health literacy, the CHLT-6, discrete latent variable modeling, latent agreement

Procedia PDF Downloads 163