Search results for: composite forecasting

Authors: Deliou Adel, Saadalah Younes, Belkaid Khmissi, Dehbi Meriem

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Composite materials, in the most common sense of the term, are a set of synthetic materials designed and used mainly for structural applications; the mechanical function is dominant. The mechanical behaviors of the composite, as well as the degradation mechanisms leading to its rupture, depend on the nature of the constituents and on the architecture of the fiber preform. The profile is required because it guides the engineer in designing structures with precise properties in relation to the needs. This work is about studying the mechanical behavior of unidirectional composite laminates according to different failure criteria. Varying strength parameter values make it possible to compare the ultimate mechanical characteristics obtained by the criteria of Tsai-Hill, Fisher and maximum stress. The laminate is subjected to uniaxial tensile membrane forces. Estimates of their ultimate strengths and the plotting of the failure envelope constitute the principal axis of this study. Using the theory of maximum stress, we can determine the various modes of damage of the composite. The different components of the deformation are presented for different orientations of fibers.

Keywords: unidirectional kevlar/epoxy composite, failure criterion, membrane stress, deformations, failure envelope

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Authors: H. Achache, Y. Madani, A. Benzerdjeb

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The present study is based on the three-dimensional digital analysis by the finite elements method of the mechanical loading effect on the delamination of unidirectional and multidirectional stratified composites. The aim of this work is the determination of the release energy rate G in mode I and the Von Mises equivalent constraint distribution along the damaged area under the influence of several parameters such as the applied load and the delamination size. The results obtained in this study show that the unidirectional composite laminates have better mechanical resistance one the loading line than the multidirectional composite laminates.

Keywords: delamination, release energy rate, stratified composite, finite element method, ply

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Authors: Xuan Sun, Mingbo Tong

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To understand the factors which affect impact damage on composite structures, particularly the effects of impact position and ribs. In this paper, a finite element model (FEM) of low-velocity impact damage on the composite structure was established via the nonlinear finite element method, combined with the user-defined materials subroutine (VUMAT) of the ABAQUS software. The structural elements chosen for the investigation comprised a series of stiffened composite panels, representative of real aircraft structure. By impacting the panels at different positions relative to the ribs, the effect of relative position of ribs was found out. Then the simulation results and the experiments data were compared. Finally, the factors which affect impact damage on the structures were discussed. The paper was helpful for the design of stiffened composite structures.

Keywords: stiffened, low-velocity impact, Abaqus, impact energy

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Authors: Peng Hao Wang, Garam Kim, Ronald Sterkenburg

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The applications of composite materials within the aviation industry has been increasing at a rapid pace.  However, the growing applications of composite materials have also led to growing demand for more tooling to support its manufacturing processes. Tooling and tooling maintenance represents a large portion of the composite manufacturing process and cost. Therefore, the industry’s adaptability to new techniques for fabricating high quality tools quickly and inexpensively will play a crucial role in composite material’s growing popularity in the aviation industry. One popular tool fabrication technique currently being developed involves additive manufacturing such as 3D printing. Although additive manufacturing and 3D printing are not entirely new concepts, the technique has been gaining popularity due to its ability to quickly fabricate components, maintain low material waste, and low cost. In this study, a team of Purdue University School of Aviation and Transportation Technology (SATT) faculty and students investigated the effectiveness of a 3D printed composite compression mold. A 3D printed composite compression mold was fabricated by 3D scanning a steel valve cover of an aircraft reciprocating engine. The 3D printed composite compression mold was used to fabricate carbon fiber versions of the aircraft reciprocating engine valve cover. The 3D printed composite compression mold was evaluated for its performance, durability, and dimensional stability while the fabricated carbon fiber valve covers were evaluated for its accuracy and quality. The results and data gathered from this study will determine the effectiveness of the 3D printed composite compression mold in a mass production environment and provide valuable information for future understanding, improvements, and design considerations of 3D printed composite molds.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, carbon fiber, composite tooling, molds

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Authors: Amir Hossein Hejazi, Nima Amjady

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In recent years, due to environmental issues traditional energy sources had been replaced by renewable ones. Wind energy as the fastest growing renewable energy shares a considerable percent of energy in power electricity markets. With this fast growth of wind energy worldwide, owners and operators of wind farms, transmission system operators, and energy traders need reliable and secure forecasts of wind energy production. In this paper, a new forecasting strategy is proposed for short-term wind power prediction based on Echo State Networks (ESN). The forecast engine utilizes state-of-the-art training process including dynamical reservoir with high capability to learn complex dynamics of wind power or wind vector signals. The study becomes more interesting by incorporating prediction of wind direction into forecast strategy. The Big Bang-Big Crunch (BB-BC) evolutionary optimization algorithm is adopted for adjusting free parameters of ESN-based forecaster. The proposed method is tested by real-world hourly data to show the efficiency of the forecasting engine for prediction of both wind vector and wind power output of aggregated wind power production.

Keywords: wind power forecasting, echo state network, big bang-big crunch, evolutionary optimization algorithm

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Authors: Abdul Hafeez, Samiya Shehzadi

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This research paper presents a different approach towards eco-friendly textile design by developing a sustainable composite fabric from orange peel for ladies' undergarments. The research focuses on utilizing orange peel to develop a unique orange leather/composite (fabric) through a process involving heating, extracting, and subsequent sun-drying to obtain the composite. The sustainable composite fabric shows properties that are favorable to the development of environmentally friendly undergarments, which not only offer UV protection but also possess healing properties for the skin. Through comprehensive testing and analysis, it has been determined that the orange peel composite fabric has zero harmful effects on the skin, making it a safe and desirable material for intimate wear. Furthermore, the research suggests that the orange peel composite fabric has the potential to reduce the rate of cancer cell growth. While the exact mechanisms and factors contributing to this effect require further investigation, the initial findings indicate promising aspects of the fabric in terms of potential cancer-preventive properties. Research contribution to the field of sustainable textile design by introducing a usual and eco-friendly approach utilizing orange peel waste. This work opens up avenues for further exploration and development of innovative materials that are both sustainable and beneficial for human health.

Keywords: sustainability, composite textiles, extracting, undergarments, eco-friendly, orange peels

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Authors: M. Cizmesija, N. Erjavec, V. Bahovec

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While the European Union (EU) harmonized methodology is a benchmark of worldwide used business survey (BS) methodology, the choice of variables that are components of the confidence indicators, as the leading indicators, is not strictly determined and unique. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate and to quantify the relationship between all business survey variables in manufacturing industry and industrial production as a reference macroeconomic series in Croatia. The assumption is that there are variables in the business survey, that are not components of Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI) and which can accurately (and sometimes better then ICI) predict changes in Croatian industrial production. Empirical analyses are conducted using quarterly data of BS variables in manufacturing industry and Croatian industrial production over the period from the first quarter 2005 to the first quarter 2013. Research results confirmed the assumption: three BS variables which is not components of ICI (competitive position, demand and liquidity) are the best leading indicator then ICI, in forecasting changes in Croatian industrial production instantaneously, with one, two or three quarter ahead.

Keywords: balance, business survey, confidence indicators, industrial production, forecasting

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Authors: Makara Rith, Young Kyu Kim, Seung Woo Lee

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In heavy duty areas, asphalt pavement constructed as entrance roadway may expose distresses such as cracking and rutting during service life. To mitigate these problems, composite pavement with a roller-compacted concrete base may be a good alternative; however, it should be initially investigated. Structural performances such as fatigue cracking and rut depth may be changed due to variation of some design factors. Therefore, this study focuses on the variation effect of material modulus, layer thickness and loading on composite pavement performances. Stress and strain at the critical location are determined and used as the input of transfer function for corresponding distresses to evaluate the pavement performance. Also, composite pavement satisfying the design criteria may be selected as a design section for heavy duty areas. Consequently, this investigation indicates that composite pavement has the ability to eliminate fatigue cracking in asphalt surfaces and significantly reduce rut depth. In addition, a thick or strong rigid base can significantly reduce rut depth and prolong fatigue life of this layer.

Keywords: composite pavement, ports, cracking, rutting

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Authors: Mahdi Fakoor, Seyed Mohammad Navid Ghoreishi

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Composite patching is a common way for reinforcing the cracked pipes and cylinders. The effects of composite patch reinforcement on fracture parameters of a cracked pipe depend on a variety of parameters such as number of layers, angle, thickness, and material of each layer. Therefore, stacking sequence optimization of composite patch becomes crucial for the applications of cracked pipes. In this study, in order to obtain the optimal stacking sequence for a composite patch that has minimum weight and maximum resistance in propagation of cracks, a coupled Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) and Finite Element Method (FEM) process is proposed. This optimization process has done for longitudinal and transverse semi-elliptical cracks and optimal stacking sequences and Pareto’s front for each kind of cracks are presented. The proposed algorithm is validated against collected results from the existing literature.

Keywords: multi objective optimization, pareto front, composite patch, cracked pipe

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Authors: Rafiuddin

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Composite solid electrolyte of the salt and oxide type is an effective approach to improve the ionic conductivity in low and intermediate temperature regions. The conductivity enhancement in the composites occurs via interfaces. Because of their high ionic conduction, composite electrolytes have wide applications in different electrochemical devices such as solid-state batteries, solid oxide fuel cells, and electrochemical cells. In this work, a series of novel (1‒x) (CdI2‒Ag2CrO4)‒xAl2O3 composite solid electrolytes has been synthesized. The prepared materials were characterized by X‒ray diffraction, differential thermal analysis, and AC impedance spectroscopy. The impedance spectra show single semicircle representing the simultaneous contribution of grain and grain boundary. The conductivity increased with the increase of Al2O3 content and shows the maximum conductivity (σ= 0.0012 S cm‒1) for 30% of Al2O3 content at 30 ℃.

Keywords: composite solid electrolyte, X-ray diffraction, Impedance spectroscopy, ionic conductivity

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Authors: Ririt Aprilin Sumarsono

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Composite member (concrete and steel) has been widely advanced for structural utilization due to its best performance in resisting load, reducing the total weight of the structure, increasing stiffness, and other available advantages. On the other hand, the environment load such as corrosion (e.g. chloride ingress) creates significant time-dependent degradation for steel. Analysis performed in this paper is mainly considered uniform corrosion for evaluating the composite beam without examining the pit corrosion as the initial corrosion formed. Corrosion level in terms of weight loss is modified in yield stress and modulus elasticity of steel. Those two mechanical properties are utilized in this paper for observing the stresses due to corrosion attacked. As corrosion level increases, the effective width of the composite beam in the concrete section will be wider. The position of a neutral axis of composite section will indicate the composite action due to corrosion of composite beam so that numerous shear connectors provided must be reconsidered. Flexure capacity quantification provides stresses, and shear capacity calculation derives connectors needed in overcoming the shear problem for composite beam under corrosion. A model of simply supported composite beam examined in this paper under uniform corrosion where the stresses as the focus of the evaluation. Principal stress at the first stage of composite construction decline as the corrosion level incline, parallel for the second stage stress analysis where the tension region held by the steel undergoes lower capacity due to corrosion. Total stresses of the composite section for steel to be born significantly decreases particularly in the outermost fiber of tension side. Whereas, the available compression side is smaller as the corrosion level increases so that the stress occurs on the compression side shows reduction as well. As a conclusion, the increment of corrosion level will degrade both compression and tension side of stresses.

Keywords: composite beam, modulus of elasticity, stress analysis, yield strength, uniform corrosion

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Authors: Hamza Benyahia, Mostapha Tarfaoui, Ahmed El-Moumen, Djamel Ouinas

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Composite pipes are commonly used in the oil industry, and extreme flow of hot and cold gas fluid can cause degradation of their mechanical performance and properties. Therefore, it is necessary to consider thermomechanical behavior as an important parameter in designing these tubular structures. In this paper, an experimental study is conducted on composite glass/epoxy tubes, with a thickness of 6.2 mm and 86 mm internal diameter made by filament winding of (Փ = ± 55°), to investigate the effects of extreme thermal condition on their mechanical properties b over a temperature range from -40 to 80°C. The climatic chamber is used for the thermal aging and then, combine split disk system is used to perform tensile tests on these composite pies. Thermal aging is carried out for 8hr but each specimen was subjected to various temperature ranges and then, uniaxial tensile test is conducted to evaluate their mechanical performance. Experimental results show degradation in the mechanical properties of composite pipes with an increase in temperature. The rigidity of pipes increases progressively with a decrease in thermal load and results in a radical decrease in their elongation before fracture, thus, decreasing their ductility. However, with an increase in the temperature, there is a decrease in the yield strength and an increase in yield strain, which confirmed an increase in the plasticity of composite pipes.

Keywords: composite pipes, thermal-mechanical properties, filament winding, thermal degradation

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Authors: S. Tayyebi, F. Mirjalili, H. Samadi, A. Nemati

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In this study, hydroxyapatite-Alumina nano composite powder, containing 15,20 and 25% weight percent of reinforced alumina were prepared by chemical precipitation from the reaction between calcium nitrate tetrahydrate and di-ammonium hydrogen phosphate with ratio of Ca / p = 1.67 and different percentage of aluminum nitrate nona hydrate in different pH of 9,10 and 11. The microstructure and thermal stability of samples were measured by X-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The results showed that the presence of reinforced alumina phase reduced the degree of crystallinity of hydroxyapatite phase and increased its decomposition to tricalcium phosphate phase. Microstructural analysis showed that the hydroxyapatite-alumina nano composite powder was obtained with spherical shape and size of less than 100 nm.

Keywords: biomaterial, hydroxyapatite, alumina, nano composite, precipitation method

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Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

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The volatility of the oil market, influenced by geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, presents significant challenges for stakeholders in predicting trends and demand. This article explores the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in developing robust forecasting models to anticipate changes in the oil market more accurately. We delve into various AI techniques, including machine learning, deep learning, and time series analysis, that have been adapted to analyze historical data and current market conditions to forecast future trends. The study evaluates the effectiveness of these models in capturing complex patterns and dependencies in market data, which traditional forecasting methods often miss. Additionally, the paper discusses the integration of external variables such as political events, economic policies, and technological advancements that influence oil prices and demand. By leveraging AI, stakeholders can achieve a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics, enabling better strategic planning and risk management. The article concludes with a discussion on the potential of AI-driven models in enhancing the predictive accuracy of oil market forecasts and their implications for global economic planning and strategic resource allocation.

Keywords: AI forecasting, oil market trends, machine learning, deep learning, time series analysis, predictive analytics, economic factors, geopolitical influence, technological advancements, strategic planning

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Authors: Magdalena Suśniak, Joanna Karwan-Baczewska

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Microstructure and tribological properties of AlSi5Cu2 matrix composite reinforced with SiC have been studied by microscopic examination and basic tribological properties. Composite material was produced by the mechanical alloying and spark plasma sintering (SPS) technique. The mixture of AlSi5Cu2 chips with 0, 10, 15 wt. % of SiC powder were placed in 250 ml mixing jar and milled 40 hours. To prevent the extreme cold welding the 1 wt. % of stearic acid was added to the powder mixture as a process control agent. Mechanical alloying provide to obtain composites powder with uniform distribution of SiC in matrix. Composite powders were poured into a graphite and a pulsed electric current was passed through powder under vacuum to consolidate material. Processing conditions were: sintering temperature 450°C, uniaxial pressure 32MPa, time of sintering 5 minutes. After SPS process composite samples indicate higher hardness values, lower weight loss, and lower coefficient of friction as compared with the unreinforced alloy. Light microscope micrograph of the worn surfaces and wear debris revealed that in the unreinforced alloy the prominent wear mechanism was the adhesive wear. In the AlSi5Cu2/SiC composites, by increasing of SiC the wear mechanism changed from adhesive and micro-cutting to abrasive and delamination for composite with 20 SiC wt. %. In all the AlSi5Cu2/SiC composites, abrasive wear was the main wear mechanism.

Keywords: aluminum matrix composite, mechanical alloying, spark plasma sintering, AlSi5Cu2/SiC composite

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Authors: Lim Kar Sing, Siti Nur Afifah Azraai, Norhazilan Md Noor, Nordin Yahaya

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Polymeric composites are being increasingly used as repair material for repairing critical infrastructures such as building, bridge, pressure vessel, piping and pipeline. Technique in repairing damaged pipes is one of the major concerns of pipeline owners. Considerable researches have been carried out on the repair of corroded pipes using composite materials. This article attempts a short review of the subject matter to provide insight into various techniques used in repairing corroded pipes, focusing on a wide range of composite repair systems. These systems including pre-cured layered, flexible wet lay-up, pre-impregnated, split composite sleeve and flexible tape systems. Both advantages and limitations of these repair systems were highlighted. Critical technical aspects have been discussed through the current standards and practices. Research gaps and future study scopes in achieving more effective design philosophy are also presented.

Keywords: composite materials, pipeline, repair technique, polymers

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Authors: Chung-Hyeon Ryu, Do-Hyoung Kim, Hak-Sung Kim

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As the use of the composites was increased, the detecting method of hidden damages which have an effect on performance of the composite was important. Terahertz (THz) spectroscopy was assessed as one of the new powerful nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques for fiber reinforced composite structures because it has many advantages which can overcome the limitations of conventional NDE techniques such as x-rays or ultrasound. The THz wave offers noninvasive, noncontact and nonionizing methods evaluating composite damages, also it gives a broad range of information about the material properties. In additions, it enables to detect the multiple-delaminations of various nonmetallic materials. In this study, the pulse type THz spectroscopy imaging system was devised and used for detecting and evaluating the hidden delamination in the glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite laminates. The interaction between THz and the GFRP composite was analyzed respect to the type of delamination, including their thickness, size and numbers of overlaps among multiple-delaminations in through-thickness direction. Both of transmission and reflection configurations were used for evaluation of hidden delaminations and THz wave propagations through the delaminations were also discussed. From these results, various hidden delaminations inside of the GFRP composite were successfully detected using time-domain THz spectroscopy imaging system and also compared to the results of C-scan inspection. It is expected that THz NDE technique will be widely used to evaluate the reliability of composite structures.

Keywords: terahertz, delamination, glass fiber reinforced plastic composites, terahertz spectroscopy

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Authors: Çiğdem Avcı Karataş

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Mitigation of structural damage caused by earthquake and reduction of fatality is one of the main concerns of engineers in seismic prone zones of the world. To achieve this aim many technologies have been developed in the last decades and applied in construction and retrofit of structures. On the one hand Turkey is well-known a country of high level of seismicity; on the other hand steel-composite structures appear competitive today in this country by comparison with other types of structures, for example only-steel or concrete structures. Composite construction is the dominant form of construction for the multi-storey building sector. The reason why composite construction is often so good can be expressed in one simple way - concrete is good in compression and steel is good in tension. By joining the two materials together structurally these strengths can be exploited to result in a highly efficient design. The reduced self-weight of composite elements has a knock-on effect by reducing the forces in those elements supporting them, including the foundations. The floor depth reductions that can be achieved using composite construction can also provide significant benefits in terms of the costs of services and the building envelope. The scope of this paper covers analysis, materials take-off, cost analysis and economic comparisons of a multi-storey building with composite and steel frames. The aim of this work is to show that designing load carrying systems as composite is more economical than designing as steel. Design of the nine stories building which is under consideration is done according to the regulation of the 2007, Turkish Earthquake Code and by using static and dynamic analysis methods. For the analyses of the steel and composite systems, plastic analysis methods have been used and whereas steel system analyses have been checked in compliance with EC3 and composite system analyses have been checked in compliance with EC4. At the end of the comparisons, it is revealed that composite load carrying systems analysis is more economical than the steel load carrying systems analysis considering the materials to be used in the load carrying system and the workmanship to be spent for this job.

Keywords: composite analysis, earthquake, steel, multi-storey building

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

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Authors: I. Algul, G. Akgun, H. Kurtaran

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Dynamic analysis of composite doubly curved panels with variable thickness subjected to different pulse types using Generalized Differential Quadrature method (GDQ) is presented in this study. Panels with variable thickness are used in the construction of aerospace and marine industry. Giving variable thickness to panels can allow the designer to get optimum structural efficiency. For this reason, estimating the response of variable thickness panels is very important to design more reliable structures under dynamic loads. Dynamic equations for composite panels with variable thickness are obtained using virtual work principle. Partial derivatives in the equation of motion are expressed with GDQ and Newmark average acceleration scheme is used for temporal discretization. Several examples are used to highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method. Results are compared with finite element method. Effects of taper ratios, boundary conditions and loading type on the response of composite panel are investigated.

Keywords: differential quadrature method, doubly curved panels, laminated composite materials, small displacement

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Authors: M. R. Ashok, S. Srivatsan, S. Vignesh

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Common replacement for glass in composites is the Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP). The GFRP has its own advantages for being a good alternative. The purpose of this research is to find a suitable enhancement for the commonly used composite Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastics (GFRP). The goal is to enhance the material properties of the composite by providing a suitable matrix with Al base. The various mechanical tests are performed to analyze and compare the improvement in the mechanical properties of the composite. As a result, this material can be used as an alternative for the commonly used GFRP in various fields with increased effectiveness in its functioning.

Keywords: alloy based composites, composite materials, glass fiber reinforced plastics, sSuper composites

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Authors: Navneet Dabra, Baljinder Kaur, Lakhbir Singh, V. Annapu Reddy, R. Nath, Dae-Yong Jeong, Jasbir S. Hundal

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Nano-composite films of sodium nitrite (NaNO2): Starch with different proportions of NaNO2 and Starch have been prepared by drop cast technique. The ferroelectric hysteresis loops (P-V) have been traced using modified Sawyar-Tower circuit. The films containing equal proportions of NaNO2 and Starch exhibit optimized ferroelectric properties. The stability of the remanent polarization, Pr in the optimized nano-composite films exhibit improved stability over the pure NaNO2 films. The Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) has been employed to investigate the surface morphology. AFM images clearly reveal the nano sized particles of NaNO2 dispersed in starch with small value of surface roughness.

Keywords: ferroelectricity, nano-composite films, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM), nano composite film

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Authors: Faci Youcef, Ahmed Mebtouche, Djillali Allou, Maalem Badredine

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The inclination of the bolt in a fastened joint of composite material during a tensile test can be influenced by several parameters, including material properties, bolt diameter and length, the type of composite material being used, the size and dimensions of the bolt, bolt preload, surface preparation, the design and configuration of the joint, and finally testing conditions. These parameters should be carefully considered and controlled to ensure accurate and reliable results during tensile testing of composite materials with fastened joints. Our work focuses on the effect of the stacking sequence and the geometry of specimens. An experimental test is carried out to obtain the inclination of a bolt during a tensile test of a composite material using acoustic emission and digital image correlation. Several types of damage were obtained during the load. Digital image correlation techniques permit the obtaining of the inclination of bolt angle value during tensile test. We concluded that the inclination of the bolt during a tensile test of a composite material can be related to the damage that occurs in the material. It can cause stress concentrations and localized deformation in the material, leading to damage such as delamination, fiber breakage, matrix cracking, and other forms of failure.

Keywords: damage, inclination, analyzed, carbon

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Tasnim Kallel, Rim Taktak

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In this experimental work, fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) composite laminates were manufactured using hand lay-up technique. The unsaturated polyester (UP) and vinylester (VE) were considered as resins reinforced with different woven fabrics (bidirectional and quadriaxial rovings). The mechanical behaviour of the resulting composites was studied and then compared. A focus was essentially done on the evaluation of the effect of E-Glass fiber and ply orientation on the mechanical properties such as tensile strength, flexural strength, and hardness of the studied composite laminates. Also, crack paths and fracture surfaces were examined, and failure mechanisms were analyzed. From the main results, it was found that the quadriaxial composite laminates (QA/VE and QA/UP) with stacking sequences of [0°, +45°, 90°, -45°] present a very ductile tensile behaviour. The other laminate samples (R500/VE, RM/VE, R500/UP and RM/UP) show a very brittle behaviour whatever the used resin. The intrinsic toughness KIC of QA/VE laminate, obtained in fracture tests, are found more important than that of RM/VE composite. Thus, the QA/VE samples, as multidirectional laminate, presents the highest interlaminar fracture resistance.

Keywords: crack growth, fiber orientation, fracture behavior, e-glass fiber fabric, laminate composite, mechanical behavior

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In construction projects, predicting project performance metrics accurately is essential for effective management and successful delivery. However, conventional methods often depend on fixed baseline plans, disregarding the evolving nature of project progress and external influences. To address this issue, we introduce a distinct approach based on machine learning to forecast key performance indicators, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category within an urban road reconstruction project. Our proposed model leverages time series forecasting techniques, namely Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance by analyzing historical data and project progress. Additionally, the model incorporates external factors, including weather patterns and resource availability, as features to improve forecast accuracy. By harnessing the predictive capabilities of machine learning, our performance forecasting model enables project managers to proactively identify potential deviations from the baseline plan and take timely corrective measures. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we conduct a case study on an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's predictions with actual project performance data. The outcomes of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry by providing a data-driven solution for enhancing project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, schedule variance, earned value management

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Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

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Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

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Authors: Slim Souissi, Mohamed Ben Amar, Nesrine Bouhamed, Pierre Marechal

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The bio-composites development from biodegradable materials and natural fibers has a growing interest in the science of composite materials. The present work was conducted as part of a cooperation project between the Sfax University and the Havre University. This work consists in developing and monitoring the properties of a composite material of olive flour wood with a polymer matrix (urea formaldehyde). For this, ultrasonic non-destructive and destructive methods of characterization were used to optimize the mechanical and acoustic properties of the studied material based on the elaboration parameters.

Keywords: bio-composite, olive flour wood, polymer matrix, ultrasonic methods, mechanical properties

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Authors: Djamel Djeghader, Bachir Redjel

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The composite materials of glass fibers can be used as a repair material for damage elements under repeated stresses, and in various environments. A cyclic bending characterization of a glass/polyester composite material was carried out with consideration of the period of immersion in water. These tests describe the behavior of materials and identify the mechanical fatigue characteristics using the Wohler Curve for different immersion time: 0, 90, 180 and 270 days in water. These curves are characterized by a dispersion in the lifetimes were modeled by straight whose intercepts are very similar and comparable to the static strength. This material deteriorates fatigue at a constant rate, which increases with increasing immersion time in water at a constant speed. The endurance limit seems to be independent of the immersion time in the water.

Keywords: fatigue, composite, glass, polyester, immersion, wohler

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Authors: Milan Joshi, Harsh Agrawal, Pallaw Mishra, Sanand Sule

Abstract:

Predicting electricity usage is a crucial aspect of organizing and controlling sustainable energy systems. The task of forecasting electricity load is intricate and requires a lot of effort due to the combined impact of social, economic, technical, environmental, and cultural factors on power consumption in communities. As a result, it is important to create strong models that can handle the significant non-linear and complex nature of the task. The objective of this study is to create and compare three machine learning techniques for predicting electricity load for both the day ahead and intraday, taking into account various factors such as meteorological data and social events including holidays and festivals. The proposed methods include a LightGBM, FBProphet, combination of FBProphet and LightGBM for day ahead and Motifs( Stumpy) based on Mueens algorithm for similarity search for intraday. We utilize these techniques to predict electricity usage during normal days and social events in the Himachal Region. We then assess their performance by measuring the MSE, RMSE, and MAPE values. The outcomes demonstrate that the combination of FBProphet and LightGBM method is the most accurate for day ahead and Motifs for intraday forecasting of electricity usage, surpassing other models in terms of MAPE, RMSE, and MSE. Moreover, the FBProphet - LightGBM approach proves to be highly effective in forecasting electricity load during social events, exhibiting precise day ahead predictions. In summary, our proposed electricity forecasting techniques display excellent performance in predicting electricity usage during normal days and special events in the Himachal Region.

Keywords: feature engineering, FBProphet, LightGBM, MASS, Motifs, MAPE

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