Search results for: basin analysis
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 28202

Search results for: basin analysis

28052 Contribution at Dimensioning of the Energy Dissipation Basin

Authors: M. Aouimeur

Abstract:

The environmental risks of a dam and particularly the security in the Valley downstream of it,, is a very complex problem. Integrated management and risk-sharing become more and more indispensable. The definition of "vulnerability “concept can provide assistance to controlling the efficiency of protective measures and the characterization of each valley relatively to the floods's risk. Security can be enhanced through the integrated land management. The social sciences may be associated to the operational systems of civil protection, in particular warning networks. The passage of extreme floods in the site of the dam causes the rupture of this structure and important damages downstream the dam. The river bed could be damaged by erosion if it is not well protected. Also, we may encounter some scouring and flooding problems in the downstream area of the dam. Therefore, the protection of the dam is crucial. It must have an energy dissipator in a specific place. The basin of dissipation plays a very important role for the security of the dam and the protection of the environment against floods downstream the dam. It allows to dissipate the potential energy created by the dam with the passage of the extreme flood on the weir and regularize in a natural manner and with more security the discharge or elevation of the water plan on the crest of the weir, also it permits to reduce the speed of the flow downstream the dam, in order to obtain an identical speed to the river bed. The problem of the dimensioning of a classic dissipation basin is in the determination of the necessary parameters for the dimensioning of this structure. This communication presents a simple graphical method, that is fast and complete, and a methodology which determines the main features of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for sizing the classic dissipation basin. This graphical method takes into account the constraints imposed by the reality of the terrain or the practice such as the one related to the topography of the site, the preservation of the environment equilibrium and the technical and economic side.This methodology is to impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump as a hypothesis (free design) to determine all the others parameters of classical dissipation basin. We can impose the loss of head DH dissipated by the hydraulic jump that is equal to a selected value or to a certain percentage of the upstream total head created by the dam. With the parameter DH+ =(DH/k),(k: critical depth),the elaborate graphical representation allows to find the other parameters, the multiplication of these parameters by k gives the main characteristics of the hydraulic jump, necessary parameters for the dimensioning of classic dissipation basin.This solution is often preferred for sizing the dissipation basins of small concrete dams. The results verification and their comparison to practical data, confirm the validity and reliability of the elaborate graphical method.

Keywords: dimensioning, energy dissipation basin, hydraulic jump, protection of the environment

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28051 Detection of Pollution in the Catchment Area of Baha Region by Using Some Common Plants as a Bioindicators

Authors: Saad M. Howladar

Abstract:

Although, there are a little data on the use of littoral plants as heavy metals bioaccumulators over large areas of the wetlands environment. So, soil samples and biomass of the five plant species: Pluchea dioscroides, Pulicaria crispa, Lavandula pubescens, Tarchononthus comporatus and Argemone ochroleuca were collected from two different sites (basin and mouth) of four dams at Baha province, KSA. Nutrients and heavy metals were extracted from plant samples (leaves and stems) for analyzing elements (Na, K, Ca, P and N) and heavy metals (Pb, Cu and Ni). The soils of the mouth of the dam had the highest concentrations of all elements, while that of basin had the highest ones of most heavy metals except Pb. The soil elements in relation to the two sites arranged as: Ca > K > P > Na > N; and the heavy metals as: Cu > Ni > Pb. The present study indicated that Pluchea dioscroides had the highest values of most elements and heavy metals, while Lavandula pubescens had the lowest. In general, leaves attain the highest concentrations of all nutrients and heavy metals in most studied species as compared with stem. It was indicated that Pluchea dioscroides showed a high transfer factor for almost elements and heavy metals such as K, Na, Cu, Ni and Pb, while Pulicaria crispa showed the highest translocation factor of N, P, Ca-Na ratio and Cu. All studied species growing in the basin had almost the highest concentrations of elements and heavy metals as compared with that in the mouth of dam except K in Pluchea dioscroides, Tarchononthus comporatus and Argemone ochroleuca tissues. Otherwise tissues of Tarchononthus comporatus growing in the basin had the lowest concentrations of K and Ni, while that growing in the mouth had the highest of P and N.

Keywords: Baha Region, bioindicators, plant, pollution, dams, heavy metals

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28050 Geomorphometric Analysis of the Hydrologic and Topographic Parameters of the Katsina-Ala Drainage Basin, Benue State, Nigeria

Authors: Oyatayo Kehinde Taofik, Ndabula Christopher

Abstract:

Drainage basins are a central theme in the green economy. The rising challenges in flooding, erosion or sediment transport and sedimentation threaten the green economy. This has led to increasing emphasis on quantitative analysis of drainage basin parameters for better understanding, estimation and prediction of fluvial responses and, thus associated hazards or disasters. This can be achieved through direct measurement, characterization, parameterization, or modeling. This study applied the Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System approach of parameterization and characterization of the morphometric variables of Katsina – Ala basin using a 30 m resolution Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This was complemented with topographic and hydrological maps of Katsina-Ala on a scale of 1:50,000. Linear, areal and relief parameters were characterized. The result of the study shows that Ala and Udene sub-watersheds are 4th and 5th order basins, respectively. The stream network shows a dendritic pattern, indicating homogeneity in texture and a lack of structural control in the study area. Ala and Udene sub-watersheds have the following values for elongation ratio, circularity ratio, form factor and relief ratio: 0.48 / 0.39 / 0.35/ 9.97 and 0.40 / 0.35 / 0.32 / 6.0. They also have the following values for drainage texture and ruggedness index of 0.86 / 0.011 and 1.57 / 0.016. The study concludes that the two sub-watersheds are elongated, suggesting that they are susceptible to erosion and, thus higher sediment load in the river channels, which will dispose the watersheds to higher flood peaks. The study also concludes that the sub-watersheds have a very coarse texture, with good permeability of subsurface materials and infiltration capacity, which significantly recharge the groundwater. The study recommends that efforts should be put in place by the Local and State Governments to reduce the size of paved surfaces in these sub-watersheds by implementing a robust agroforestry program at the grass root level.

Keywords: erosion, flood, mitigation, morphometry, watershed

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28049 Technical Efficiency in Organic and Conventional Wheat Farms: Evidence from a Primary Survey from Two Districts of Ganga River Basin, India

Authors: S. P. Singh, Priya, Komal Sajwan

Abstract:

With the increasing spread of organic farming in India, costs, returns, efficiency, and social and environmental sustainability of organic vis-a-vis conventional farming systems have become topics of interest among agriculture scientists, economists, and policy analysts. A study on technical efficiency estimation under these farming systems, particularly in the Ganga River Basin, where the promotion of organic farming is incentivized, can help to understand whether the inputs are utilized to their maximum possible level and what measures can be taken to improve the efficiency. This paper, therefore, analyses the technical efficiency of wheat farms operating under organic and conventional farming systems. The study is based on a primary survey of 600 farms (300 organic ad 300 conventional) conducted in 2021 in two districts located in the Middle Ganga River Basin, India. Technical, managerial, and scale efficiencies of individual farms are estimated by applying the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. The per hectare value of wheat production is taken as an output variable, and values of seeds, human labour, machine cost, plant nutrients, farm yard manure (FYM), plant protection, and irrigation charges are considered input variables for estimating the farm-level efficiencies. The post-DEA analysis is conducted using the Tobit regression model to know the efficiency determining factors. The results show that technical efficiency is significantly higher in conventional than organic farming systems due to a higher gap in scale efficiency than managerial efficiency. Further, 9.8% conventional and only 1.0% organic farms are found operating at the most productive scale size (MPSS), and 99% organic and 81% conventional farms at IRS. Organic farms perform well in managerial efficiency, but their technical efficiency is lower than conventional farms, mainly due to their relatively lower scale size. The paper suggests that technical efficiency in organic wheat can be increased by upscaling the farm size by incentivizing group/collective farming in clusters.

Keywords: organic, conventional, technical efficiency, determinants, DEA, Tobit regression

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28048 Generation and Migration of CO₂ in the Bahi Sandstone Reservoir within the Ennaga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya

Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

Abstract:

This work presents a study of Carbone dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72). En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface) Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distribution over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite and minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well, and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer-grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72) where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ productivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad's Igneous complex, carbon dioxide generation, migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi Sandstone

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28047 Generation and Migration of CO₂ in the Bahi Sandstone Reservoir within the Ennaga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya

Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

Abstract:

This work presents a study of carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir over the EPSA 120/136 (conc 72), En Naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya. The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone is the result of deposition that occurred between the start of the Cretaceous rifting that formed the area's Horsts, Grabens, and Cenomanian marine transgression. Bahi sediments were derived mainly from those Nubian sediments exposed on the structurally higher blocks, transported short distances into newly forming depocenters such as the En Naga Sub-basin, and were deposited by continental processes over the Sirte Unconformity (pre-Late Cretaceous surface). Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin within different lithofacies distributed over this sub-base. One of the two lithofacies recognized in the Bahi is a very fine to very coarse, subangular to angular, pebbly, and occasionally conglomeratic quartz sandstone, which is commonly described as being compacted but friable. This sandstone may contain pyrite, minor kaolinite. This facies was encountered at 11,042 feet in F1-72 well and at 9,233 feet in L1-72. Good, reservoir quality sandstones are associated with paleotopographic highs within the sub-basin and around its margins where winnowing and/or deflationary processes occurred. The second Bahi Lithofacies is a thinly bedded sequence dominated by shales and siltstones with subordinate sandstones and carbonates. The sandstones become more abundant with depth. This facies was encountered at 12,580 feet in P1 -72 and at 11,850 feet in G1a -72. This argillaceous sequence is likely the Bahi sandstone's lateral facies equivalent deposited in paleotopographic lows, which received finer grained material. The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock, which after prolific production tests for the drilled wells that makes Bahi sandstones the principal reservoir rocks for CO₂ where large volumes of CO₂ gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136, (conc 72). CO₂ occurs in this area as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex. Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface and are exposed at the surface. Bahi CO₂ prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas of EPSA 120/136 (CONC 72), where there are better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂ prospectivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves, although there are positive indications that they are very large. Three main structures (Barrut I, En Naga A, and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone development. These leads are the most attractive on EPSA 120/136 for the deep potential.

Keywords: En Naga Sub Basin, Al Harouge Al Aswad’s Igneous Complex, carbon dioxide generation and migration in the Bahi sandstone reservoir, lower cretaceous Bahi sandstone

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28046 Study on Horizontal Ecological Compensation Mechanism in Yangtze River Economic Belt Basin: Based on Evolutionary Game Analysis and Water Quality and Quantity Model

Authors: Tingyu Zhang

Abstract:

The horizontal ecological compensation (HEC) mechanism is the key to stimulating the active participation of the whole basin in ecological protection. In this paper, we construct an evolutionary model for HEC in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) basin with the introduction of the central government constraint and incentive mechanism (CGCIM) and explore the conditions for the realization of a (Protection and compensation) strategy that meets the social expectations. Further, the water quality-water quantity model is utilized to measure the HEC amount with the characteristic factual data of the YREB in 2020-2022. The results show that the stability of the evolutionary game model of upstream and downstream governments in the YREB is closely related to the CGCIM. If (Protection Compensation) is to be realized as the only evolutionary stable strategy of the evolutionary game system composed of upstream and downstream governments, it is necessary for the CGCIM to satisfy that the sum of the incentives for the protection side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than twice the input cost of the active strategy, and the sum of the incentives for the compensation side and its unilateral or bilateral constraints is greater than the amount of ecological compensation that needs to be paid by it when it adopts the active strategy. At this point, the total amount of HEC that the downstream government should give to the upstream government of the YREB is 2856.7 million yuan in 2020, 5782.1 million yuan in 2021, and 23166.7 million yuan in 2022. The results of the study can provide a reference for promoting the improvement and refinement of the HEC mechanism in the YREB.

Keywords: horizontal ecological compensation, Yangtze river economic belt, evolutionary game analysis, water quality and quantity model research on territorial ecological restoration in Mianzhu city, Sichuan, under the dual evaluation framework

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28045 Flood Scenarios for Hydrological and Hydrodynamic Modelling

Authors: M. Sharif Imam Ibne Amir, Mohammad Masud Kamal Khan, Mohammad Golam Rasul, Raj H. Sharma, Fatema Akram

Abstract:

Future flood can be predicted using the probable maximum flood (PMF). PMF is calculated using the historical discharge or rainfall data considering the other climatic parameter stationary. However, climate is changing globally and the key climatic variables are temperature, evaporation, rainfall and sea level rise (SLR). To develop scenarios to a basin or catchment scale these important climatic variables should be considered. Nowadays scenario based on climatic variables is more suitable than PMF. Six scenarios were developed for a large Fitzroy basin and presented in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, rainfall, potential evaporation, scenario, sea level rise (SLR), sub-catchment

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28044 Evolution of Plio/Pleistocene Sedimentary Processes in Patraikos Gulf, Offshore Western Greece

Authors: E. K. Tripsanas, D. Spanos, I. Oikonomopoulos, K. Stathopoulou, A. S. Abdelsamad, A. Pagoulatos

Abstract:

Patraikos Gulf is located offshore western Greece, and it is limited to the west by the Zante, Cephalonia, and Lefkas islands. The Plio/Pleistocene sequence is characterized by two depocenters, the east and west Patraikos basins separated from each other by a prominent sill. This study is based on the Plio/Pleistocene seismic stratigraphy analysis of a newly acquired 3D PSDM (Pre-Stack depth migration) seismic survey in the west Patraikos Basin and few 2D seismic profiles throughout the entire Patraikos Gulf. The eastern Patraikos Basin, although completely buried today with water depths less than 100 m, it was a deep basin during Pliocene ( > 2 km of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments) and appears to have gathered most of Achelous River discharges. The west Patraikos Gulf was shallower ( < 1300 m of Pliocene-Pleistocene sediments) and characterized by a hummocky relief due to thrust-belt tectonics and Miocene to Pleistocene halokinetic processes. The transition from Pliocene to Miocene is expressed by a widespread erosional unconformity with evidence of fluvial drainage patterns. This indicates that west Patraikos Basin was aerially exposed during the Messinian Salinity Crisis. Continuous to semi-continuous, parallel reflections in the lower, early- to mid-Pliocene seismic packet provides evidence that the re-connection of the Mediterranean Sea with the Atlantic Ocean during Zanclean resulted in the flooding of the west Patraikos basin and the domination of hemipelagic sedimentation interrupted by occasional gravity flows. This is evident in amplitude and semblance horizon slices, which clearly show the presence of long-running, meandering submarine channels sourced from the southeast (northwest Peloponnese) and north. The long-running nature of the submarine channels suggests mobile efficient turbidity currents, probably due to the participation of a sufficient amount of clay minerals in their suspended load. The upper seismic section in the study area mainly consists of several successions of clinoforms, interpreted as progradational delta complexes of Achelous River. This sudden change from marine to shallow marine sedimentary processes is attributed to climatic changes and eustatic perturbations since late Pliocene onwards (~ 2.6 Ma) and/or a switch of Achelous River from the east Patraikos Basin to the west Patraikos Basin. The deltaic seismic unit consists of four delta complexes. The first two complexes result in the infill of topographic depressions and smoothing of an initial hummocky bathymetry. The distribution of the upper two delta complexes is controlled by compensational stacking. Amplitude and semblance horizon slices depict the development of several almost straight and short (a few km long) distributary submarine channels at the delta slopes and proximal prodeltaic plains with lobate sand-sheet deposits at their mouths. Such channels are interpreted to result from low-efficiency turbidity currents with low content in clay minerals. Such a differentiation in the nature of the gravity flows is attributed to the switch of the sediment supply from clay-rich sediments derived from the draining of flysch formations of the Ionian and Gavrovo zones, to the draining of poor in clay minerals carbonate formations of Gavrovo zone through the Achelous River.

Keywords: sequence stratigraphy, basin analysis, river deltas, submarine channels

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28043 Seismic Activity in the Lake Kivu Basin: Implication for Seismic Risk Management

Authors: Didier Birimwiragi Namogo

Abstract:

The Kivu Lake Basin is located in the Western Branch of the East African Rift. In this basin is located a multitude of active faults, on which earthquakes occur regularly. The most recent earthquakes date from 2008, 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2019. The cities of Bukabu and Goma in DR Congo and Giseyi in Rwanda are the most impacted by this intense seismic activity in the region. The magnitude of the strongest earthquakes in the region is 6.1. The 2008 earthquake was particularly destructive, killing several people in DR Congo and Rwanda. This work aims to complete the distribution of seismicity in the region, deduce areas of weakness and establish a hazard map that can assist in seismic risk management. Using the local seismic network of the Goma Volcano Observatory, the earthquakes were relocated, and their focus mechanism was studied. The results show that most of these earthquakes occur on active faults described by Villeneuve in 1938. The alignment of the earthquakes shows a pace that follows directly the directions of the faults described by this author. The study of the focus mechanism of these earthquakes, also shows that these are in particular normal faults whose stresses show an extensive activity. Such study can be used for the establishment of seismic risk management tools.

Keywords: earthquakes, hazard map, faults, focus mechanism

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28042 Evaluation of Flow Alteration under Climate Change Scenarios for Disaster Risk Management in Lower Mekong Basin: A Case Study in Prek Thnot River in Cambodia

Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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28041 Gariep Dam Basin Management for Satisfying Ecological Flow Requirements

Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

Abstract:

Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

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28040 Mathematical Model for Flow and Sediment Yield Estimation on Tel River Basin, India

Authors: Santosh Kumar Biswal, Ramakar Jha

Abstract:

Soil erosion is a slow and continuous process and one of the prominent problems across the world leading to many serious problems like loss of soil fertility, loss of soil structure, poor internal drainage, sedimentation deposits etc. In this paper remote sensing and GIS based methods have been applied for the determination of soil erosion and sediment yield. Tel River basin which is the second largest tributary of the river Mahanadi laying between latitude 19° 15' 32.4"N and, 20° 45' 0"N and longitude 82° 3' 36"E and 84° 18' 18"E chosen for the present study. The catchment was discretized into approximately homogeneous sub-areas (grid cells) to overcome the catchment heterogeneity. The gross soil erosion in each cell was computed using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Various parameters for USLE was determined as a function of land topography, soil texture, land use/land cover, rainfall, erosivity and crop management and practice in the watershed. The concept of transport limited accumulation was formulated and the transport capacity maps were generated. The gross soil erosion was routed to the catchment outlet. This study can help in recognizing critical erosion prone areas of the study basin so that suitable control measures can be implemented.

Keywords: Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), GIS, land use, sediment yield,

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28039 Contribution to the Understanding of the Hydrodynamic Behaviour of Aquifers of the Taoudéni Sedimentary Basin (South-eastern Part, Burkina Faso)

Authors: Kutangila Malundama Succes, Koita Mahamadou

Abstract:

In the context of climate change and demographic pressure, groundwater has emerged as an essential and strategic resource whose sustainability relies on good management. The accuracy and relevance of decisions made in managing these resources depend on the availability and quality of scientific information they must rely on. It is, therefore, more urgent to improve the state of knowledge on groundwater to ensure sustainable management. This study is conducted for the particular case of the aquifers of the transboundary sedimentary basin of Taoudéni in its Burkinabe part. Indeed, Burkina Faso (and the Sahel region in general), marked by low rainfall, has experienced episodes of severe drought, which have justified the use of groundwater as the primary source of water supply. This study aims to improve knowledge of the hydrogeology of this area to achieve sustainable management of transboundary groundwater resources. The methodological approach first described lithological units regarding the extension and succession of different layers. Secondly, the hydrodynamic behavior of these units was studied through the analysis of spatio-temporal variations of piezometric. The data consists of 692 static level measurement points and 8 observation wells located in the usual manner in the area and capturing five of the identified geological formations. Monthly piezometric level chronicles are available for each observation and cover the period from 1989 to 2020. The temporal analysis of piezometric, carried out in comparison with rainfall chronicles, revealed a general upward trend in piezometric levels throughout the basin. The reaction of the groundwater generally occurs with a delay of 1 to 2 months relative to the flow of the rainy season. Indeed, the peaks of the piezometric level generally occur between September and October in reaction to the rainfall peaks between July and August. Low groundwater levels are observed between May and July. This relatively slow reaction of the aquifer is observed in all wells. The influence of the geological nature through the structure and hydrodynamic properties of the layers was deduced. The spatial analysis reveals that piezometric contours vary between 166 and 633 m with a trend indicating flow that generally goes from southwest to northeast, with the feeding areas located towards the southwest and northwest. There is a quasi-concordance between the hydrogeological basins and the overlying hydrological basins, as well as a bimodal flow with a component following the topography and another significant component deeper, controlled by the regional gradient SW-NE. This latter component may present flows directed from the high reliefs towards the sources of Nasso. In the source area (Kou basin), the maximum average stock variation, calculated by the Water Table Fluctuation (WTF) method, varies between 35 and 48.70 mm per year for 2012-2014.

Keywords: hydrodynamic behaviour, taoudeni basin, piezometry, water table fluctuation

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28038 Detailed Depositional Resolutions in Upper Miocene Sands of HT-3X Well, Nam Con Son Basin, Vietnam

Authors: Vo Thi Hai Quan

Abstract:

Nam Con Son sedimentary basin is one of the very important oil and gas basins in offshore Vietnam. Hai Thach field of block 05-2 contains mostly gas accumulations in fine-grained, sand/mud-rich turbidite system, which was deposited in a turbidite channel and fan environment. Major Upper Miocene reservoir of HT-3X lies above a well-developed unconformity. The main objectives of this study are to reconstruct depositional environment and to assess the reservoir quality using data from 14 meters of core samples and digital wireline data of the well HT-3X. The wireline log and core data showed that the vertical sequences of representative facies of the well mainly range from Tb to Te divisions of Bouma sequences with predominance of Tb and Tc compared to Td and Te divisions. Sediments in this well were deposited in a submarine fan association with very fine to fine-grained, homogeneous sandstones that have high porosity and permeability, high- density turbidity currents with longer transport route from the sediment source to the basin, indicating good quality of reservoir. Sediments are comprised mainly of the following sedimentary structures: massive, laminated sandstones, convoluted bedding, laminated ripples, cross-laminated ripples, deformed sandstones, contorted bedding.

Keywords: Hai Thach field, Miocene sand, turbidite, wireline data

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28037 Analytic Hierarchy Process and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach for Selecting the Most Effective Soil Erosion Zone in Gomati River Basin

Authors: Rajesh Chakraborty, Dibyendu Das, Rabindra Nath Barman, Uttam Kumar Mandal

Abstract:

In the present study, the objective is to find out the most effective zone causing soil erosion in the Gumati river basin located in the state of Tripura, a north eastern state of India using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA).The watershed is segmented into 20 zones based on Area. The watershed is considered by pointing the maximum elevation from sea lever from Google earth. The soil erosion is determined using the universal soil loss equation. The different independent variables of soil loss equation bear different weightage for different soil zones. And therefore, to find the weightage factor for all the variables of soil loss equation like rainfall runoff erosivity index, soil erodibility factor etc, analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is used. And thereafter, multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA) approach is used to select the most effective zone causing soil erosion. The MCDM technique concludes that the maximum soil erosion is occurring in the zone 14.

Keywords: soil erosion, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), multi criteria decision making (MCDM), universal soil loss equation (USLE), multi-objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis (MOORA)

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28036 Flood Predicting in Karkheh River Basin Using Stochastic ARIMA Model

Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

Abstract:

Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R2).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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28035 Study on a Family of Optimal Fourth-Order Multiple-Root Solver

Authors: Young Hee Geum

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In this paper,we develop the complex dynamics of a family of optimal fourth-order multiple-root solvers and plot their basins of attraction. Mobius conjugacy maps and extraneous fixed points applied to a prototype quadratic polynomial raised to the power of the known integer multiplicity m are investigated. A 300 x 300 uniform grid centered at the origin covering 3 x 3 square region is chosen to visualize the initial values on each basin of attraction in accordance with a coloring scheme based on their dynamical behavior. The illustrative basins of attractions applied to various test polynomials and the corresponding statistical data for convergence are shown to confirm the theoretical convergence.

Keywords: basin of attraction, conjugacy, fourth-order, multiple-root finder

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28034 Regression Analysis in Estimating Stream-Flow and the Effect of Hierarchical Clustering Analysis: A Case Study in Euphrates-Tigris Basin

Authors: Goksel Ezgi Guzey, Bihrat Onoz

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The scarcity of streamflow gauging stations and the increasing effects of global warming cause designing water management systems to be very difficult. This study is a significant contribution to assessing regional regression models for estimating streamflow. In this study, simulated meteorological data was related to the observed streamflow data from 1971 to 2020 for 33 stream gauging stations of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Ordinary least squares regression was used to predict flow for 2020-2100 with the simulated meteorological data. CORDEX- EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were used with 0.11 and 0.22 grids, respectively, to estimate climate conditions under certain climate scenarios. Twelve meteorological variables simulated by two regional climate models, RCA4 and RegCM4, were used as independent variables in the ordinary least squares regression, where the observed streamflow was the dependent variable. The variability of streamflow was then calculated with 5-6 meteorological variables and watershed characteristics such as area and height prior to the application. Of the regression analysis of 31 stream gauging stations' data, the stations were subjected to a clustering analysis, which grouped the stations in two clusters in terms of their hydrometeorological properties. Two streamflow equations were found for the two clusters of stream gauging stations for every domain and every regional climate model, which increased the efficiency of streamflow estimation by a range of 10-15% for all the models. This study underlines the importance of homogeneity of a region in estimating streamflow not only in terms of the geographical location but also in terms of the meteorological characteristics of that region.

Keywords: hydrology, streamflow estimation, climate change, hydrologic modeling, HBV, hydropower

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
28033 Petroleum Play Fairway Analysis of the Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation, Concession 71, South-Central Sirt Basin, Libya

Authors: Hatem K. Hamed, Mohamed S. Hrouda

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The Middle Paleocene Lower Beda Formation was deposited in a ramp system with local shoaling. The main constituent is limestone, with subordinate dolomites and Shales. Reservoir quality is largely influenced by depositional environments and diagenesis processes. Generally the reservoir quality of Lower Beda Formation is low risk on the Inferred Horst and in the Southern Shelf where the Lower Beda formation comprises mainly of calcarenties. In the vicinity of the well GG1 the Lower Beda comprise mainly of argillaceous calcilutites and shale. The reservoir quality gradually improves from high risk to moderate risk towards KK1, LL1 and NN1 wells. The average gross thickness of Lower Beda Formation is about 300 ft. The net thickness varies from about 270 ft. in the E1-71 well to about 30 ft. in the vicinity of GG1-71 well. The net thickest of Lower Beda form a NNW-SSW trend with an average of 250 ft. the change in facies is due to change in the depositional environment, from lagoonal to shoal barrier to open marine affected the reservoir quality. The Upper Cretaceous Sirte Shale is the main source rock. It is developed within the three troughs surrounding the study area. S-Marada Trough to the N- E, Gerad Trough to the N N-W, and Abu Tummym Sub-basin to the S-W of the Inferred Horst. Sirte shale reaches 1000ft, of organically rich section. It has good organic contents over large area 2% to 3%. Hydrocarbon shows were encountered in several wells in Beda Formation this is an indication of vertical and lateral migration of hydrocarbon. The overlying Upper Paleocene Khalifa Formation is a transgressive shale, it is an effective regional top seal. Lithofacies variations in Khalifa Shale, from shales to limestones in the southern shelf in R1-71 well approximately 50-75% of the secession is limestone. About 47 million barrel of hydrocarbon recoverable reserves is expected to be trapped in structural and stratigraphic traps in Beda Formation in the study area.

Keywords: Sirte basin, Beda formation, concession 71, petroleum play fairway analysis

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28032 Modeling Sediment Yield of Jido River in the Rift Vally

Authors: Dawit Hailekrios Hailu

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The main objective of this study is to predict the sediment yield of the Jido River Watershed. Jido River is the largest tributary and covers around 50% of the total catchment area of Lake Shala. This research is undertaken to analyze the sediment yield of the catchments, transport capacity of the streams and sediment deposition rates of Jido River, which is located in the Sub-basin of Shala Lake, Rift Valley Basin of Ethiopia. The input data were Meteorological, Hydrological, land use/land cover maps and soil maps collected from concerned government offices. The sediment yield of Jido River and sediment change of the streams discharging into the Shala Lake were modeled.

Keywords: sediment yield, watershed, simulation, calibration

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28031 Perspectives on the Role of Stakeholder Engagement and Community Participation in River Basin Management in South Africa: A Study of the Hennops River

Authors: Lucien N. James, Mulala D. Simatele

Abstract:

As a country that already faces hydrological and climatological challenges, South Africa’s socio-economic situation only complicates water resource management. This is observable through the state of rivers in the Gauteng Province such as the Hennops and Jukskei which are plagued by pollution from surrounding urban areas. While communities in the Hennops River basin contribute to its degradation, their potential in improved water resource management strategies is yet to be established. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the myriad of ways in which stakeholder and community engagement, mobilisation, as well as participation can be harnessed in contested urban spaces to facilitate a sustainable management system for river basins. Through meetings, clean-up campaigns, and a community workshop, the community of Tembisa and several key informants were engaged. The role of communities and their perceptions on an integrated and participatory approach to solving the Hennops River basin’s current pollution crisis were therefore explored. The findings of this study suggest that meaningful participation is tied to the level of awareness within communities as well as the amount of support attributed to active involvement through the initiatives of stakeholders such as NonGovernmental Organisations. For meaningful participation to take place, more needs to be done to shift communities away from a “bystander” position to a more active role. An approach to community engagement is therefore proposed arguing for the further support of stakeholder-driven initiatives and the raising of awareness around environmental challenges in poorer communities. The findings of this study demonstrate the value of engagement with stakeholders and communities, highlighting ways through which better water management and environmental governance can be achieved in South Africa.

Keywords: community participation, integrated water resource management, river basin management, stakeholder engagement

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28030 Organic Geochemistry and Oil-Source Correlation of Cretaceous Sediments in the Kohat Basin, Pakistan

Authors: Syed Mamoon Siyar, Fayaz Ali, Sajjad Ahmad, Samina Jahandad, George Kontakiotis, Hammad T. Janjuhah, Assimina Antonarakou, Waqas Naseem

Abstract:

The Cretaceous Chichali Formation in the Chanda-01, Chanda-02, Chanda-03 and Mela-05 wells and the oil samples from Chanda-01 and Chanda-01 wells located in the Kohat Basin, Pakistan, were analyzed with the objectives of evaluating the hydrocarbon generation potential, source, thermal maturity and depositional of organic matter, and oil-source correlation by employing geochemical screening techniques and biomarker studies. The total organic carbon (TOC) values in Chanda-02, Chanda-03 and Mela-05 indicate, in general, poor to fair, fair and fair to good source rock potential with low genetic potential, respectively. The nature of organic matter has been determined by standard cross plots of Rock Eval pyrolysis parameters, indicating that studied cuttings from the Chichali Formation dominantly contain type III kerogen at present and show maturity for oil generation in the studied wells. The organic petrographic study also confirmed the vitrinite (type III) as a major maceral in the investigated Chichali Shales and its reflectance values show maturity for oil. The different ratios of non-biomarkers and biomarkers i.e., steranes, terpenes and aromatics parameters, indicate the marine source of organic matter deposited in the anoxic environment for the Chichali Formation in Chanda-01 and Chanda-02 wells and mixed source input of organic matter deposited in suboxic conditions for oil in the same wells. The CPI, and different biomarkers parameters such as C29 S/S+R, ββ/αα+ββ), M29/H30, Ts/Ts+Tm, H31 (S/S+R) and aromatic compounds methyl phenanthrene index (MPI) and organic petrographic analysis (vitrinite reflectance) suggest mature stage of oil generation for Chichali Shales and oil samples in the study area with little high thermal maturity in case of oils. Based on source and thermal maturity biomarkers and non-biomarkers parameters, the produced oils have no correlation with the Cretaceous Chichali Formation in the studied Chanda-01 and Chanda-02 wells in Kohat Basin, Pakistan, but it has been suggested that these oils have been generated by the strata containing high terrestrial organic input compare to Chichali Shales.

Keywords: Organic geochemistry, Chichali Shales and crude oils, Kohat Basin, Pakistan

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28029 Identification of Groundwater Potential Zones Using Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: A Case Study in Bagmati River Basin

Authors: Hritik Bhattarai, Vivek Dumre, Ananya Neupane, Poonam Koirala, Anjali Singh

Abstract:

The availability of clean and reliable groundwater is essential for the sustainment of human and environmental health. Groundwater is a crucial resource that contributes significantly to the total annual supply. However, over-exploitation has depleted groundwater availability considerably and led to some land subsidence. Determining the potential zone of groundwater is vital for protecting water quality and managing groundwater systems. Groundwater potential zones are marked with the assistance of Geographic Information System techniques. During the study, a standard methodology was proposed to determine groundwater potential using an integration of GIS and AHP techniques. When choosing the prospective groundwater zone, accurate information was generated to get parameters such as geology, slope, soil, temperature, rainfall, drainage density, and lineament density. However, identifying and mapping potential groundwater zones remains challenging due to aquifer systems' complex and dynamic nature. Then, ArcGIS was incorporated with a weighted overlay, and appropriate ranks were assigned to each parameter group. Through data analysis, MCDA was applied to weigh and prioritize the different parameters based on their relative impact on groundwater potential. There were three probable groundwater zones: low potential, moderate potential, and high potential. Our analysis showed that the central and lower parts of the Bagmati River Basin have the highest potential, i.e., 7.20% of the total area. In contrast, the northern and eastern parts have lower potential. The identified potential zones can be used to guide future groundwater exploration and management strategies in the region.

Keywords: groundwater, geographic information system, analytic hierarchy processes, multi-criteria decision analysis, Bagmati

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28028 Problems of Water Resources : Vulnerability to Climate Change, Modeling with Software WEAP 21 (Upper and Middle Cheliff)

Authors: Mehaiguene Madjid, Meddi Mohamed

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The results of applying the model WEAP 21 or 'Water Evaluation and Planning System' in Upper and Middle Cheliff are presented in cartographic and graphic forms by considering two scenarios: -Reference scenario 1961-1990, -Climate change scenarios (low and high) for 2020 and 2050. These scenarios are presented together in the results and compared them to know the impact on aquatic systems and water resources. For the low scenario for 2050, a decrease in the rate of runoff / infiltration will be 81.4 to 3.7 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. While for the high scenario for 2050, the reduction will be 87.2 to 78.9 Hm3 between 2010 and 2050. Comparing the two scenarios, shows that the water supplied will increase by 216.7 Hm3 to 596 Hm3 up to 2050 if we do not take account of climate change. Whereas, if climate change will decrease step by step: from 2010 to 2026: for the climate change scenario (high scenario) by 2050, water supplied from 346 Hm3 to 361 Hm3. That of the reference scenario (1961-1990) will increase to 379.7 Hm3 in 2050. This is caused by the increased demand (increased population, irrigated area, etc ). The balance water management basin is positive for the different Horizons and different situations. If we do not take account of climate change will be the outflow of 5881.4 Hm3. This excess at the basin can be used as part of a transfer for example.

Keywords: balance water, management basin, climate change scenario, Upper and Middle Cheliff

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28027 Catchment Yield Prediction in an Ungauged Basin Using PyTOPKAPI

Authors: B. S. Fatoyinbo, D. Stretch, O. T. Amoo, D. Allopi

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This study extends the use of the Drainage Area Regionalization (DAR) method in generating synthetic data and calibrating PyTOPKAPI stream yield for an ungauged basin at a daily time scale. The generation of runoff in determining a river yield has been subjected to various topographic and spatial meteorological variables, which integers form the Catchment Characteristics Model (CCM). Many of the conventional CCM models adapted in Africa have been challenged with a paucity of adequate, relevance and accurate data to parameterize and validate the potential. The purpose of generating synthetic flow is to test a hydrological model, which will not suffer from the impact of very low flows or very high flows, thus allowing to check whether the model is structurally sound enough or not. The employed physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model (PyTOPKAPI) was parameterized with GIS-pre-processing parameters and remote sensing hydro-meteorological variables. The validation with mean annual runoff ratio proposes a decent graphical understanding between observed and the simulated discharge. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (R²) values of 0.704 and 0.739 proves strong model efficiency. Given the current climate variability impact, water planner can now assert a tool for flow quantification and sustainable planning purposes.

Keywords: catchment characteristics model, GIS, synthetic data, ungauged basin

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28026 Evaluating the Water Balance of Sokoto Basement Complex to Address Water Security Challenges

Authors: Murtala Gada Abubakar, Aliyu T. Umar

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A substantial part of Nigeria is part of semi-arid areas of the world, underlain by basement complex (hard) rocks which are very poor in both transmission and storage of appreciable quantity of water. Recently, a growing attention is being paid on the need to develop water resources in these areas largely due to concerns about increasing droughts and the need to maintain water security challenges. While there is ample body of knowledge that captures the hydrological behaviours of the sedimentary part, reported research which unambiguously illustrates water distribution in the basement complex of the Sokoto basin remains sparse. Considering the growing need to meet the water requirements of those living in this region necessitated the call for accurate water balance estimations that can inform a sustainable planning and development to address water security challenges for the area. To meet this task, a one-dimensional soil water balance model was developed and utilised to assess the state of water distribution within the Sokoto basin basement complex using measured meteorological variables and information about different landscapes within the complex. The model simulated the soil water storage and rates of input and output of water in response to climate and irrigation where applicable using data from 2001 to 2010 inclusive. The results revealed areas within the Sokoto basin basement complex that are rich and deficient in groundwater resource. The high potential areas identified includes the fadama, the fractured rocks and the cultivated lands, while the low potential areas are the sealed surfaces and non-fractured rocks. This study concludes that the modelling approach is a useful tool for assessing the hydrological behaviour and for better understanding the water resource availability within a basement complex.

Keywords: basement complex, hydrological processes, Sokoto Basin, water security

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28025 Regional Hydrological Extremes Frequency Analysis Based on Statistical and Hydrological Models

Authors: Hadush Kidane Meresa

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The hydrological extremes frequency analysis is the foundation for the hydraulic engineering design, flood protection, drought management and water resources management and planning to utilize the available water resource to meet the desired objectives of different organizations and sectors in a country. This spatial variation of the statistical characteristics of the extreme flood and drought events are key practice for regional flood and drought analysis and mitigation management. For different hydro-climate of the regions, where the data set is short, scarcity, poor quality and insufficient, the regionalization methods are applied to transfer at-site data to a region. This study aims in regional high and low flow frequency analysis for Poland River Basins. Due to high frequent occurring of hydrological extremes in the region and rapid water resources development in this basin have caused serious concerns over the flood and drought magnitude and frequencies of the river in Poland. The magnitude and frequency result of high and low flows in the basin is needed for flood and drought planning, management and protection at present and future. Hydrological homogeneous high and low flow regions are formed by the cluster analysis of site characteristics, using the hierarchical and C- mean clustering and PCA method. Statistical tests for regional homogeneity are utilized, by Discordancy and Heterogeneity measure tests. In compliance with results of the tests, the region river basin has been divided into ten homogeneous regions. In this study, frequency analysis of high and low flows using AM for high flow and 7-day minimum low flow series is conducted using six statistical distributions. The use of L-moment and LL-moment method showed a homogeneous region over entire province with Generalized logistic (GLOG), Generalized extreme value (GEV), Pearson type III (P-III), Generalized Pareto (GPAR), Weibull (WEI) and Power (PR) distributions as the regional drought and flood frequency distributions. The 95% percentile and Flow duration curves of 1, 7, 10, 30 days have been plotted for 10 stations. However, the cluster analysis performed two regions in west and east of the province where L-moment and LL-moment method demonstrated the homogeneity of the regions and GLOG and Pearson Type III (PIII) distributions as regional frequency distributions for each region, respectively. The spatial variation and regional frequency distribution of flood and drought characteristics for 10 best catchment from the whole region was selected and beside the main variable (streamflow: high and low) we used variables which are more related to physiographic and drainage characteristics for identify and delineate homogeneous pools and to derive best regression models for ungauged sites. Those are mean annual rainfall, seasonal flow, average slope, NDVI, aspect, flow length, flow direction, maximum soil moisture, elevation, and drainage order. The regional high-flow or low-flow relationship among one streamflow characteristics with (AM or 7-day mean annual low flows) some basin characteristics is developed using Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) and Generalized Least Square (GLS) regression model, providing a simple and effective method for estimation of flood and drought of desired return periods for ungauged catchments.

Keywords: flood , drought, frequency, magnitude, regionalization, stochastic, ungauged, Poland

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28024 Neural Networks Based Prediction of Long Term Rainfall: Nine Pilot Study Zones over the Mediterranean Basin

Authors: Racha El Kadiri, Mohamed Sultan, Henrique Momm, Zachary Blair, Rachel Schultz, Tamer Al-Bayoumi

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The Mediterranean Basin is a very diverse region of nationalities and climate zones, with a strong dependence on agricultural activities. Predicting long term (with a lead of 1 to 12 months) rainfall, and future droughts could contribute in a sustainable management of water resources and economical activities. In this study, an integrated approach was adopted to construct predictive tools with lead times of 0 to 12 months to forecast rainfall amounts over nine subzones of the Mediterranean Basin region. The following steps were conducted: (1) acquire, assess and intercorrelate temporal remote sensing-based rainfall products (e.g. The CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation [CMAP]) throughout the investigation period (1979 to 2016), (2) acquire and assess monthly values for all of the climatic indices influencing the regional and global climatic patterns (e.g., Northern Atlantic Oscillation [NOI], Southern Oscillation Index [SOI], and Tropical North Atlantic Index [TNA]); (3) delineate homogenous climatic regions and select nine pilot study zones, (4) apply data mining methods (e.g. neural networks, principal component analyses) to extract relationships between the observed rainfall and the controlling factors (i.e. climatic indices with multiple lead-time periods) and (5) use the constructed predictive tools to forecast monthly rainfall and dry and wet periods. Preliminary results indicate that rainfall and dry/wet periods were successfully predicted with lead zones of 0 to 12 months using the adopted methodology, and that the approach is more accurately applicable in the southern Mediterranean region.

Keywords: rainfall, neural networks, climatic indices, Mediterranean

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28023 Biostratigraphy of Neogene and Quaternary Deposits of the West Turkmen Depression

Authors: Arzu Javadova

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The complex of sedimentary deposits that make up the West Turkmen Basin is almost completely hidden under the Quaternary formations. The most ancient deposits emerging on the surface in some places are the deposits of the Red Color Suite of the Pliocene. Miocene deposits are exposed only at the Western end of the Kopet Dag. The main object of stratigraphic, including micropaleontological studies, were the deposits of the Quaternary and Pliocene forming marine and coastal structures. The identified stratigraphic units have certain characteristic Ostracod complexes. The fauna of the Ostracod acquires special significance in the stratification of Neogene and Quaternary deposits. Ostracods of the Neogene, Pliocene and Quaternary deposits of the West Turkmen depression are represented by a large part of the species common in the corresponding deposits of Azerbaijan and Iran.

Keywords: neogene, quaternary, turkmenistan, south caspian basin, ostracoda, foraminifera, biostratigraphy, paleontology

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