Search results for: risk modelling

Authors: Ali Mohaghar, Iman Ghasemian Sahebi, Alireza Arab

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In the last decades, increasing in human and natural disaster occurrence had very irreparable effects on human life. Hence, one of the important issues in humanitarian supply chain management is identifying and prioritizing the different risks and finding suitable solutions for encountering them at the time of disaster occurrence. This study is an attempt to provide a comprehensive review of humanitarian supply chain risks in a case study of Tehran Red Crescent Societies. For this purpose, Best-Worst method (BWM) has been used for analyzing the risks of the humanitarian supply chain. 22 risks of the humanitarian supply chain were identified based on the literature and interviews with four experts. According to BWM method, the importance of each risk was calculated. The findings showed that culture contexts, little awareness of people, and poor education system are the most important humanitarian supply chain risks. This research provides a useful guideline for managers so that they can benefit from the results to prioritize their solutions.

Keywords: Best-Worst Method, humanitarian logistics, humanitarian supply chain, risk management

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Authors: Benjamin K. Ghansah, Richard K. Appoh, Iliya Nababa, Eric K. Forkuo

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The Nasia River is an important source of water for domestic and agricultural purposes to the inhabitants of its catchment. Major farming activities takes place within the floodplain of the river and its network of tributaries. The actual inundation extent of the river system is; however, unknown. Reasons for this lack of information include financial constraints and inadequate human resources as flood modelling is becoming increasingly complex by the day. Knowledge of the inundation extent will help in the assessment of risk posed by the annual flooding of the river, and help in the planning of flood recession agricultural activities. This study used a simple terrain based algorithm, Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), to delineate the floodplain of the Nasia River and its tributaries. The HAND model is a drainage normalized digital elevation model, which has its height reference based on the local drainage systems rather than the average mean sea level (AMSL). The underlying principle guiding the development of the HAND model is that hillslope flow paths behave differently when the reference gradient is to the local drainage network as compared to the seaward gradient. The new terrain model of the catchment was created using the NASA’s SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 30m as the only data input. Contours (HAND Contour) were then generated from the normalized DEM. Based on field flood inundation survey, historical information of flooding of the area as well as satellite images, a HAND Contour of 2m was found to best correlates with the flood inundation extent of the river and its tributaries. A percentage accuracy of 75% was obtained when the surface area created by the 2m contour was compared with surface area of the floodplain computed from a satellite image captured during the peak flooding season in September 2016. It was estimated that the flooding of the Nasia River and its tributaries created a floodplain area of 1011 km².

Keywords: digital elevation model, floodplain, HAND contour, inundation extent, Nasia River

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Authors: Bill D. Geis

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Even with significantly increased spending, suicide rates continue to climb—with alarming increases among traditionally low-risk groups. This has caused clinicians and researchers to call for a complete rethinking of all assumptions about suicide prevention, assessment, and intervention. A form of therapy--Internal Family Systems Therapy--affords tremendous promise in sustained diminishment of lethal suicide risk. Though a form of therapy that is most familiar to trauma therapists, Internal Family Systems Therapy, involving direct work with suicidal parts, is a promising therapy for meaningful and sustained reduction in suicide deaths. Developed by Richard Schwartz, Internal Family Systems Therapy proposes that we are all influenced greatly by internal parts, frozen by development adversities, and these often-contradictory parts contribute invisibly to mood, distress, and behavior. In making research videos of patients from our database and discussing their suicide attempts, it is clear that many persons who attempt suicide are in altered states at the time of their attempt and influenced by factors other than conscious intent. Suicide intervention using this therapy involves direct work with suicidal parts and other interacting parts that generate distress and despair. Internal Family Systems theory posits that deep experiences of pain, fear, aloneness, and distress are defended by a range of different parts that attempt to contain these experiences of pain through various internal activities that unwittingly push forward inhibition, fear, self-doubt, hopelessness, desires to cut and engage in destructive behavior, addictive behavior, and even suicidal actions. These suicidal parts are often created (and “frozen”) at young ages, and these very young parts do not understand the consequences of this influence. Experience suggests that suicidal parts can create impulsive risk behind the scenes when pain is high and emotional support reduced—with significant crisis potential. This understanding of latent suicide risk is consistent with many of our video accounts of serious suicidal acts—compiled in a database of 1104 subjects. Since 2016, consent has been obtained and records kept of 23 highly suicidal patients, with initial Intention-to-Die ratings (0= no intent, 10 = conviction to die) between 5 and 10. In 67% of these cases using IFST parts-work intervention, these highly suicidal patients’ risk was reduced to 0-1, and 83% of cases were reduced to 4 or lower. There were no suicide deaths. Case illustrations will be offered.

Keywords: suicide, internal family systems therapy, crisis management, suicide prevention

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Authors: J.R.S.S. Kumara, M.A.R.M. Fernando, S.Venkatesh, D.K. Jayaratne

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Protection of heritage monuments against lightning has become extremely important as far as their historical values are concerned. When such structures are large and tall, the risk of lightning initiated from both cloud and ground can be high. This paper presents a lightning risk analysis of three giant stupas in Anuradhapura era (fourth century BC onwards) in Sri Lanka. The three stupas are Jethawaaramaya (269-296 AD), Abayagiriya (88-76 BC) and Ruwanweliseya (161-137 BC), the third, fifth and seventh largest ancient structures in the world. These stupas are solid brick structures consisting of a base, a near hemispherical dome and a conical spire on the top. The ancient stupas constructed with a dielectric crystal on the top and connected to the ground through a conducting material, was considered as the hypothesis for their original lightning protection technique. However, at present, all three stupas are protected with Franklin rod type air termination systems located on top of the spire. First, a risk analysis was carried out according to IEC 62305 by considering the isokeraunic level of the area and the height of the stupas. Then the standard protective angle method and rolling sphere method were used to locate the possible touching points on the surface of the stupas. The study was extended to estimate the critical current which could strike on the unprotected areas of the stupas. The equations proposed by (Uman 2001) and (Cooray2007) were used to find the striking distances. A modified version of rolling sphere method was also applied to see the effects of upward leaders. All these studies were carried out for two scenarios: with original (i.e. ancient) lightning protection system and with present (i.e. new) air termination system. The field distribution on the surface of the stupa in the presence of a downward leader was obtained using finite element based commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics for further investigations of lightning risks. The obtained results were analyzed and compared each other to evaluate the performance of ancient and new lightning protection methods and identify suitable methods to design lightning protection systems for stupas. According to IEC standards, all three stupas with new and ancient lightning protection system has Level IV protection as per protection angle method. However according to rolling sphere method applied with Uman’s equation protection level is III. The same method applied with Cooray’s equation always shows a high risk with respect to Uman’s equation. It was found that there is a risk of lightning strikes on the dome and square chamber of the stupa, and the corresponding critical current values were different with respect to the equations used in the rolling sphere method and modified rolling sphere method.

Keywords: Stupa, heritage, lightning protection, rolling sphere method, protection level

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Authors: Soodabeh Shahid Sales, Azam Rastgar Moghadam, Mehrane Mehramiz, Malihe Entezari, Kazem Anvari, Mohammad Sadegh Khorrami, Saeideh Ahmadi Simab, Ali Moradi, Seyed Mahdi Hassanian, Majid Ghayour-Mobarhan, Gordon A. Ferns, Amir Avan

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Background Esophageal cancer has been reported as the eighth most common cancer universal and the seventh cause of cancer-related death in men .recent studies have revealed that cytochrome P450, family 1, subfamily B, polypeptide 1, which plays a role in metabolizing xenobiotics, is associated with different cancers. Therefore in the present study, we investigated the impact of CYP1B1-rs1056836 on esophagus squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Method: 317 subjects, with and without ESCC were recruited. DNA was extracted and genotyped via Real-time PCR-Based Taq Man. Kaplan Meier curves were utilized to assess overall and progression-free survival. To evaluate the relationship between patients clinicopathological data, genotypic frequencies, disease prognosis, and patients survival, Pearson chi-square and t-test were used. Logistic regression was utilized to assess the association between the risk of ESCC and genotypes. Results: the genotypic frequency for GG, GC, and CC are respectively 58.6% , 29.8%, 11.5% in the healthy group and 51.8%, 36.14% and 12% in ESCC group. With respect to the recessive genetic inheritance model, an association between the GG genotype and stage of ESCC were found. Also, statistically significant results were not found for this variation and risk of ESCC. Patients with GG genotype had a decreased risk of nodal metastasis in comparison with patients with CC/CG genotype, although this link was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Our findings illustrated the correlation of CYP1B1-rs1056836 as a potential biomarker for ESCC patients, supporting further studies in larger populations in different ethnic groups. Moreover, further investigations are warranted to evaluate the association of emerging marker with dietary intake and lifestyle.

Keywords: Cytochrome P450, esophagus squamous cell carcinoma, dietary intake, lifestyle

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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The basic objective of this paper is twofold. It resides in designing a model for a contingent convertible lease contract that can ensure the financial stability of a company and recover the losses of the parties to the lease in the event of default. It also aims to compare the convertible lease contract on inefficiencies resulting from the debt-overhang problem and asset substitution with other financing policies. From this perspective, this paper highlights the interaction between investments and financing policies in a dynamic model with existing assets and a growth option where the investment cost is financed by a contingent convertible lease and equity. We explore the impact of the contingent convertible lease on the capital structure. We also check the reliability and effectiveness of the use of the convertible lease contract as a means of financing. Findings show that the rental convertible contract with a sufficiently high conversion ratio has less severe inefficiencies arising from risk-shifting and debt overhang than those entailed by risky debt and pure-equity financing. The problem of underinvestment pointed out by Mauer and Ott (2000) and the problem of overinvestment mentioned by Hackbarth and Mauer (2012) may be reduced under contingent convertible lease financing. Our findings predict that the firm value under contingent convertible lease financing increases globally with asset volatility instead of decreasing with business risk. The study reveals that convertible leasing contracts can stand for a reliable solution to ensure the lessee and quickly recover the counterparties of the lease upon default.

Keywords: contingent convertible lease, growth option, debt overhang, risk-shifting, capital structure

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Authors: Berengere Vire, Nicolas Salvetat, Yoann Lannay, Guillaume Marcellin, Siem Van Der Laan, Franck Molina, Dinah Weissmann

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Predicting suicidal behaviors is one of the most complex challenges of daily psychiatric practices. Today, suicide risk prediction using biological tools is not validated and is only based on subjective clinical reports of the at-risk individual. Therefore, there is a great need to identify biomarkers that would allow early identification of individuals at risk of suicide. Alterations of adenosine-to-inosine (A-to-I) RNA editing of neurotransmitter receptors and other proteins have been shown to be involved in etiology of different psychiatric disorders and linked to suicidal behavior. RNA editing is a co- or post-transcriptional process leading to a site-specific alteration in RNA sequences. It plays an important role in the epi transcriptomic regulation of RNA metabolism. On postmortem human brain tissue (prefrontal cortex) of depressed suicide victims, Alcediag found specific alterations of RNA editing activity on the mRNA coding for the serotonin 2C receptor (5-HT2cR). Additionally, an increase in expression levels of ADARs, the RNA editing enzymes, and modifications of RNA editing profiles of prime targets, such as phosphodiesterase 8A (PDE8A) mRNA, have also been observed. Interestingly, the PDE8A gene is located on chromosome 15q25.3, a genomic region that has recurrently been associated with the early-onset major depressive disorder (MDD). In the current study, we examined whether modifications in RNA editing profile of prime targets allow identifying disease-relevant blood biomarkers and evaluating suicide risk in patients. To address this question, we performed a clinical study to identify an RNA editing signature in blood of depressed patients with and without the history of suicide attempts. Patient’s samples were drawn in PAXgene tubes and analyzed on Alcediag’s proprietary RNA editing platform using next generation sequencing technology. In addition, gene expression analysis by quantitative PCR was performed. We generated a multivariate algorithm comprising various selected biomarkers to detect patients with a high risk to attempt suicide. We evaluated the diagnostic performance using the relative proportion of PDE8A mRNA editing at different sites and/or isoforms as well as the expression of PDE8A and the ADARs. The significance of these biomarkers for suicidality was evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). The generated algorithm comprising the biomarkers was found to have strong diagnostic performances with high specificity and sensitivity. In conclusion, we developed tools to measure disease-specific biomarkers in blood samples of patients for identifying individuals at the greatest risk for future suicide attempts. This technology not only fosters patient management but is also suitable to predict the risk of drug-induced psychiatric side effects such as iatrogenic increase of suicidal ideas/behaviors.

Keywords: blood biomarker, next-generation-sequencing, RNA editing, suicide

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Mahjoub Mohamed, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

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Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is currently recognized as one of the most relevant causes of morbidity and mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients worldwide. Identifying modifiable risk factors for VAP could be helpful for future controlled interventional studies aiming at improving prevention of VAP. The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence and risk factors for VAP in in a Tunisian medical ICU. Materials / Methods: A retrospective case-control study design based on the prospective database collected over a 14-month period from September 15th, 2015 through November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU. Patients under ventilation for over 48 h were included. The number of cases was estimated by Epi-info Software with the power of statistical test equal to 90 %. Each case patient was successfully matched to two controls according to the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) before VAP for cases and the total length of MV in controls. VAP in the ICU was defined according to American Thoracic Society; Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines. Early onset or late-onset VAP were defined whether the infectious process occurred within or after 96 h of ICU admission. Patients’ risk factors, causes of admission, comorbidities and respiratory specimens collected were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables associated with VAP with a p-value < 0.05. Results: During the period study, a total of 169 patients under mechanical ventilation were considered, 34 patients (20.11%) developed at least one episode of VAP in the ICU. The incidence rate for VAP was 14.88/1000 ventilation days. Among these cases, 9 (26.5 %) were early-onset VAP and 25 (73.5 %) were late-onset VAP. It was a certain diagnosis in 66.7% of cases. Tracheal aspiration was positive in 80% of cases. Multi-drug resistant Acinerobacter baumanii was the most common species detected in cases; 67.64% (n=23). The rate of mortality out of cases was 88.23% (n= 30). In univariate analysis, the patients with VAP were statistically more likely to suffer from cardiovascular diseases (p=0.035) and prolonged duration of sedation (p=0.009) and tracheostomy (p=0.001), they also had a higher number of re-intubation (p=0.017) and a longer total time of intubation (p=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases (OR= 4.44; 95% IC= [1.3 - 14]; p=0.016), tracheostomy (OR= 4.2; 95% IC= [1.16 -15.12]; p= 0.028) and prolonged duration of sedation (OR=1.21; 95% IC= [1.07, 1.36]; p=0.002) were independent risk factors for the development of VAP. Conclusion: VAP constitutes a therapeutic challenge in an ICU setting, therefore; strategies that effectively prevent VAP are needed. An infection control-training program intended to all professional heath care in this unit insisting on bundles and elaboration of procedures are planned to reduce effectively incidence rate of VAP.

Keywords: case control study, intensive care unit, risk factors, ventilator associated pneumonia

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Authors: Luiz Drude de Lacerda, Kevin Luiz Cordeiro Ferrer do Carmo, Victor Lacerda Moura, Rayone Wesley Santos de Oliveira, Moisés Fernandes Bezerra

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Fish is a food source well recognized for its health benefits. However, the consumption of fish, especially carnivorous species, is the main path of human exposure to Hg, a widely distributed pollutant on the planet and that accumulates along food chains. Studies on the impacts on public health by fish intake show existing toxic risks even when at low concentrations. This study quantifies, for the first time, the concentrations of Hg in muscle tissue of the nine most commercialized fish species in the fish market of São Luís (MA) in north Brazil and estimates the consequent human exposure through consumption. Concentrations varied according to trophic level, with the highest found in the larger carnivorous species; the Yellow hake (Cynoscion acoupa) (296.4 ± 241.2 ng/g w.w) and the Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) (262.8 ± 89.1 ng/g w.w.), whereas the lowest concentrations were recorded in iliophagous Mullets (Mugil curema) (20.5 ± 9.6 ng/g w.w.). Significant correlations were observed between Hg concentrations and individual length in only two species: the Flaming catfish (Bagre marinus) and the Atlantic bumper (Chloroscombrus crysurus). Given the relatively uniform size of individuals of the other species and/or the small number of samples, this relationship was not found for the other species. The estimated risk coefficients, despite the relatively low concentrations of Hg, suggest that yellow hake and Whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri), fish most consumed by the local population, present some risk to human health (> 1) HQ and THQ, depending on the frequency of their consumption.

Keywords: contamination, fish, human exposure, risk assessment

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Authors: Wisdom Robert Duruji, Moses Kanayochukwu Ifoh, Efeoghene Edward Esiemunobo

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This study examines the impact of natural and artificial disasters, lackadaisical and semantic approach in risk management, and mitigation implication for sustainable development goals in Nigeria, from 2009 to 2022. The study utilizes a range of research methods to achieve its objectives. These include literature review, website knowledge, Google search, news media information, academic journals, field-work and on-site observations. These diverse methods allow for a comprehensive analysis on the impact and the implications being study. The study finds that paradigm shift from remediating seismic, flooding, environmental pollution and degradation natural disasters by Nigeria Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), to political and charity organization; has plunged risk reduction strategies to embezzling opportunities. However, this lackadaisical and semantic approach in natural disaster mitigation, invariably replicates artificial disasters in Nigeria through: Boko Haram terrorist organization, Fulani herdsmen and farmers conflicts, political violence, kidnapping for ransom, ethnic conflicts, Religious dichotomy, insurgency, secession protagonists, unknown-gun-men, and banditry. This study also, finds that some Africans still engage in self-imposed slavery through human trafficking, by nefariously stow-away to Europe; through Libya, Sahara desert and Mediterranean sea; in search for job opportunities, due to ineptitude in governance by their leaders; a perilous journey that enhanced artificial disasters in Nigeria. That artificial disaster fatality in Nigeria increased from about 5,655 in 2009 to 114,318 in 2018; and to 157,643 in 2022. However, financial and material loss of about $9.29 billion was incurred in Nigeria due to natural disaster, while about $70.59 billion was accrued due to artificial disaster; from 2009 to 2018. Although disaster risk mitigation and politics can synergistically support sustainable development goals; however, they are different entities, and need for distinct separations in Nigeria, as in reality and perception. This study concluded that referendum should be conducted in Nigeria, to ascertain its current status as a nation. Therefore it is recommended that Nigerian governments should refine its naturally endowed crude oil locally; to end fuel subsidy scam, corruption and poverty in Nigeria!

Keywords: corruption, crude oil, environmental risk analysis, Nigeria, referendum, terrorism

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

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Authors: Vichai Tienthavorn

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Background: Recently, the patients of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are increasing in Thailand; especially hypertension and diabetes. Hypertension and Diabetes patients were found to be of 3.7 million in 2008. The varieties of human behaviors have been extensively changed in health. Hence, Thai Government has a policy to reduce NCDs. Generally, primary care plays an important role in treatment using medical process. However, NCDs patients have not been decreased. Objectives: This study not only reduce the patient and mortality rate but also increase the quality of life, could apply in different areas and propose to be the national policy, effectively for a long term operation. Methods: Here we report that primary health care (PHC), which is a primary process to screening, rapidly seek the person's risk. The screening tool of the study was Vichai's 7 color balls model, the medical education tool to transfer knowledge from student health team to community through health volunteers, creating community engagement in terms of social participation. It was found that people in community were realized in their health and they can evaluate the level of risk using this model. Results: Projects implementation (2015) in Nong Lom Health Center in Phayao (target group 15-65 years, 2529); screening hypertension coveraged 99.01%, risk group (light green) was decreased to normal group (white) from 1806 to 1893, significant severe patient (red) was decreased to moderate (orange) from 10 to 5. Health Program in behaving change with best practice of 3Es (Eating, Exercise, Emotion) and 3Rs (Reducing tobacco, alcohol, obesity) were applied in risk group; and encourage strictly medication, investigation in severe patient (red). Conclusion: This is the first demonstration of knowledge transfer to community engagement by student, which is the sustainable education in PHC.

Keywords: non-communicable disease, surveillance control and prevention systems, community engagement, primary health care

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Authors: Hossein Rassi, Marjan Moradi Fard, Masoud Houshmand

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Background: Cervical cancer is multistep disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia(CIN)and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of p53 and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of p53 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism in cervical lesions. Method: Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33 and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of P53 and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Results: Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99bp). According to the results, p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical lesions in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. Conclusion: The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.

Keywords: cervical cancer, p53, miR-146a, rs2910164, polymorphism

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Authors: Dirk Bruland, Paulo Pinheiro, Ullrich Bauer

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Introduction: Over 3 million children, about one quarter of all students, experience at least one parent with mental disorder in Germany every year. Children of mentally-ill parents are at considerably higher risk of developing serious mental health problems. The different burden patterns and coping attempts often become manifest in children's school lives. In this context, schools can have an important protective function, but can also create risk potentials. In reference to Jorm, pupil-related teachers’ mental health literacy (Teacher-MHL) includes the ability to recognize change behaviour, the knowledge of risk factors, the implementation of first aid intervention, and seeking professional help (teacher as gatekeeper). Although teachers’ knowledge and increased awareness of this topic is essential, the literature provides little information on the extent of teachers' abilities. As part of a German-wide research consortium on health literacy, this project, launched in March for 3 years, will conduct evidence-based mental health literacy research. The primary objective is to measure Teacher-MHL in the context of pupil-related psychosocial factors at primary and secondary schools (grades 5 & 6), while also focussing on children’s social living conditions. Methods: (1) A systematic literature review in different databases to identify papers with regard to Teacher-MHL (completed). (2) Based on these results, an interview guide was developed. This research step includes a qualitative pre-study to inductively survey the general profiles of teachers (n=24). The evaluation will be presented on the conference. (3) These findings will be translated into a quantitative teacher survey (n=2500) in order to assess the extent of socio-analytical skills of teachers as well as in relation to institutional and individual characteristics. (4) Based on results 1 – 3, developing a training program for teachers. Results: The review highlights a lack of information for Teacher-MHL and their skills, especially related to high-risk-groups like children of mentally ill parents. The literature is limited to a few studies only. According to these, teacher are not good at identifying burdened children and if they identify those children they do not know how to handle the situations in school. They are not sufficiently trained to deal with these children, especially there are great uncertainties in dealing with the teaching situation. Institutional means and resources are missing as well. Such a mismatch can result in insufficient support and use of opportunities for children at risk. First impressions from the interviews confirm these results and allow a greater insight in the everyday school-life according to critical life events in families. Conclusions: For the first time schools will be addressed as a setting where children are especially "accessible" for measures of health promotion. Addressing Teacher-MHL gives reason to expect high effectiveness. Targeting professionals' abilities for dealing with this high-risk-group leads to a discharge for teacher themselves to handle those situations and increases school health promotion. In view of the fact that only 10-30% of such high-risk families accept offers of therapy and assistance, this will be the first primary preventive and health-promoting approach to protect the health of a yet unaffected, but particularly burdened, high-risk group.

Keywords: children of mentally ill parents, health promotion, mental health literacy, school

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Authors: Marjan Moradi fard, Hossein Rassi, Masoud Houshmand

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Aim: Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers affecting the morbidity and mortality of Iranian women. This disease is a result of collective alterations of oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes. Studies have produced conflicting results concerning the role of p53 codon 72 polymorphism (G>C) and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism (G>C) on the risk of several cancers; therefore, a research was performed to estimate the association between the p53 codon 72 polymorphism and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism in breast cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 45 archival breast cancer samples from Khatam hospital and 40 healthy samples were collected. Verification of each cancer reported in a relative was sought through the pathology reports of the hospital records. Then, DNA extracted from all samples by standard methods and p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes were analyzed using multiplex PCR. The tubules, mitotic activity, necrosis, polymorphism and grade of breast cancer were staged by Nottingham histological grading and immunohistochemical staining of the sections from the paraffin wax embedded tissues for the expression of ER, PR and p53 was carried out using a standard method. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Results: Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99 bp). According to the results, p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer in the study population. In this study, we established that tumors of p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype exhibited higher mitotic activity, higher polymorphism, lower necrosis, lower tubules, higher ER- and PR-negatives and lower TP53-positives than the other genotypes. Conclusion: The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype may effect breast cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes in combination with clinical parameters can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of breast cancers.

Keywords: breast cancer, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, p53 codon 72 polymorphism, tumors, pathology reports

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Authors: Hossein Rassi, Marjan Moradi fard, Masoud Houshmand

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Background: Cervical cancer is multistep disease that is thought to result from an interaction between genetic background and environmental factors. Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection is the leading risk factor for Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia (CIN) and cervical cancer. In other hand, some of p53 and miRNA polymorphism may plays an important role in carcinogenesis. This study attempts to clarify the relation of p53 genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism in cervical lesions. Method: Forty two archival samples with cervical lesion retired from Khatam hospital and 40 sample from healthy persons used as control group. A simple and rapid method was used to detect the simultaneous amplification of the HPV consensus L1 region and HPV-16,-18, -11, -31, 33, and -35 along with the b-globin gene as an internal control. We use Multiplex PCR for detection of P53 and miR-146a rs2910164 genotypes in our lab. Finally, data analysis was performed using the 7 version of the Epi Info(TM) 2012 software and test chi-square(x2) for trend. Results: Cervix lesions were collected from 42 patients with Squamous metaplasia, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and cervical carcinoma. Successful DNA extraction was assessed by PCR amplification of b-actin gene (99 bp). According to the results, p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype was significantly associated with increased risk of cervical lesions in the study population. In this study, we detected 13 HPV 18 from 42 cervical cancer. Conclusion: The connection between several SNP polymorphism and human virus papilloma in rare researches were seen. The reason of these differences in researches' findings can result in different kinds of races and geographic situations and also differences in life grooves in every region. The present study provided preliminary evidence that a p53 GG genotype and miR-146a rs2910164 CC genotype may effect cervical cancer risk in the study population, interacting synergistically with HPV 18 genotype. Our results demonstrate that the testing of p53 codon 72 polymorphism genotypes and miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism genotypes in combination with HPV18 can serve as major risk factors in the early identification of cervical cancers. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of primary prevention of cervical cancer by vaccination against HPV18 in Iran.

Keywords: cervical cancer, miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism, p53 polymorphism, intraepithelial, neoplasia, HPV

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Authors: Adriana C. Panayi, Riaz A. Agha, Brady A. Sieber, Dennis P. Orgill

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Background: Increased rates of both breast cancer and obesity have resulted in more women seeking breast reconstruction. These women may be at increased risk for perioperative complications. A systematic review was conducted to assess the outcomes in obese women who have undergone breast reconstruction following mastectomy. Methods: Cochrane, PUBMED and EMBASE electronic databases were screened and data was extracted from included studies. The clinical outcomes assessed were surgical complications, medical complications, length of postoperative hospital stay, reoperation rate and patient satisfaction. Results: 33 studies met the inclusion criteria for the review and 29 provided enough data to be included in the meta-analysis (71368 patients, 20061 of which were obese). Obese women were 2.3 times more likely to experience surgical complications (95 percent CI 2.19 to 2.39; P < 0.00001), 2.8 times more likely to have medical complications (95 percent CI 2.41 to 3.26; P < 0.00001) and had a 1.9 times higher risk of reoperation (95 percent CI 1.75 to 2.07; P < 0.00001). The most common complication, wound dehiscence, was 2.5 times more likely in obese women (95 percent CI 1.80 to 3.52; P < 0.00001). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that obese women were more likely to experience surgical complications (RR 2.36, 95% CI 2.22–2.52; P < 0.00001). Conclusions: This study provides evidence that obesity increases the risk of complications in both implant and autologous reconstruction. Additional prospective and observational studies are needed to determine if weight reduction prior to reconstruction reduces the perioperative risks associated with obesity.

Keywords: autologous reconstruction, breast cancer, breast reconstruction, literature review, obesity, oncology, prosthetic reconstruction

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Authors: Suzanne Phibbs, Christine Kenney, Robyn Richardson

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction called for the inclusion of indigenous people in the design and implementation of all hazard policies, plans, and standards. Ensuring that indigenous knowledge practices were included alongside scientific knowledge about disaster risk was also a key priority. Indigenous communities have specific knowledge about climate and natural hazard risk that has been developed over an extended period of time. However, research within indigenous communities can be fraught with issues such as power imbalances between the researcher and researched, the privileging of researcher agendas over community aspirations, as well as appropriation and/or inappropriate use of indigenous knowledge. This paper documents the process of working alongside a Māori community to develop a successful community-led research project. Research Design: This case study documents the development of a qualitative community-led participatory project. The community research project utilizes a kaupapa Māori research methodology which draws upon Māori research principles and concepts in order to generate knowledge about Māori resilience. The research addresses a significant gap in the disaster research literature relating to indigenous knowledge about collective hazard mitigation practices as well as resilience in rurally isolated indigenous communities. The research was designed in partnership with the Ngāti Raukawa Northern Marae Collective as well as Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa (a group of Māori sub-tribes who are located in the same region) and will be conducted by Māori researchers utilizing Māori values and cultural practices. The research project aims and objectives, for example, are based on themes that were identified as important to the Māori community research partners. The research methodology and methods were also negotiated with and approved by the community. Kaumātua (Māori elders) provided cultural and ethical guidance over the proposed research process and will continue to provide oversight over the conduct of the research. Purposive participant recruitment will be facilitated with support from local Māori community research partners, utilizing collective marae networks and snowballing methods. It is envisaged that Māori participants’ knowledge, experiences and views will be explored using face-to-face communication research methods such as workshops, focus groups and/or semi-structured interviews. Interviews or focus groups may be held in English and/or Te Reo (Māori language) to enhance knowledge capture. Analysis, knowledge dissemination, and co-authorship of publications will be negotiated with the Māori community research partners. Māori knowledge shared during the research will constitute participants’ intellectual property. New knowledge, theory, frameworks, and practices developed by the research will be co-owned by Māori, the researchers, and the host academic institution. Conclusion: An emphasis on indigenous knowledge systems within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction risks the appropriation and misuse of indigenous experiences of disaster risk identification, mitigation, and response. The research protocol underpinning this project provides an exemplar of collaborative partnership in the development and implementation of an indigenous project that has relevance to policymakers, academic researchers, other regions with indigenous communities and/or local disaster risk reduction knowledge practices.

Keywords: community resilience, indigenous disaster risk reduction, Maori, research methods

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Authors: Hasibe Caballero-Gomez, Richard Pepino

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Childhood lead poisoning is an issue that continues to plague major U.S. cities. Lead poisoning has been linked to decreases in academic achievement and IQ at levels as low as 5 ug/dL. Despite efforts from the Philadelphia Health Department to curtail systemic childhood lead poisoning, children continue to be identified with elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) above the CDC reference level for diagnosis. This problem disproportionately affects low-income Black communities. At the moment, remediation is costly, and with the current policies in place, comprehensive remediation seems unrealistic. This research investigates community engagement policy and the ways pre-exisiting resources in target communities can be adjusted to decrease childhood lead poisoning. The study was done with two methods: content analysis and case studies. The content analysis includes 12 interviews from stakeholders and five published policy recommendations. The case studies focus on Baltimore, Chicago, Rochester, and St. Louis, four cities with significant childhood lead poisoning. Target communities were identified by mapping five factors that indicate a higher risk for lead poisoning. Seven priority zipcodes were identified for the model developed in this study. For these urban centers, 28 policy solutions and suggestions were identified, with three being identified at least four times in the content analysis and case studies. These three solutions create an interdependent model that offers increased community awareness and engagement with the issue that could potentially improve health and social outcomes for at-risk children.

Keywords: at-risk populations, community engagement, environmental justice, policy translation

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Authors: Adepeju Simon-Oke, Olatunji Odeyemi, Mobolanle Oniya

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Urinary tract infection has become the most common bacterial infections in humans, both at the community and hospital settings; it has been reported in all age groups and in both sexes. This study was carried out in order to determine and evaluate the prevalence, current drug susceptibility pattern of the isolated organisms and identify the associated risk factors of UTIs among the pregnant women in Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria. A cross-sectional study was conducted on the urine of pregnant women, and socio-demographic information of the women was collected. A total of 300 clean midstream urine samples were collected, and a general urine microscopic examination and culture were carried out, the Microbact identification system was used to identify gram-negative bacteria. Out of the 300 urine samples cultured, 183(61.0%) yielded significant growth of urinary pathogens while 117(39.0%) yielded either insignificant growth or no growth of any urinary pathogen. Prevalence of UTI was significantly associated with the type of toilet used, symptoms of UTI, and previous history of urinary tract infection (p<0.05). Escherichia coli 58(31.7%) was the dominant pathogen isolated, and the least isolated uropathogens were Citrobacter freudii and Providencia retgerri 2(1.1%) respectively. Gram-negative bacteria showed 77.6%, 67.9%, and 61.2% susceptibility to ciprofloxacin, augmentin, and chloramphenicol, respectively. Resistance against septrin, chloramphenicol, sparfloxacin, amoxicillin, augmentin, gentamycin, pefloxacin, trivid, and streptomycin was observed in the range of 23.1 to 70.1%. Gram-positive uropathogens isolated showed high resistance to amoxicillin (68.4%) and high susceptibility to the remaining nine antibiotics in the range 65.8% to 89.5%. This study justifies that pregnant women are at high risk of UTI. Therefore screening of pregnant women during antenatal clinics should be considered very important to avoid complications. Health education with regular antenatal and personal hygiene is recommended as precautionary measures to UTI.

Keywords: pregnant women, prevalence, risk factor, UTIs

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Authors: Gus Calderon, Richard McCreight, Tammy Schwartz

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Forensic analysis of community wildfire destruction in California has shown that reducing or removing flammable vegetation in proximity to buildings and structures is one of the most important wildfire defenses available to homeowners. State laws specify the requirements for homeowners to create and maintain defensible space around all structures. Unfortunately, this decades-long effort had limited success due to noncompliance and minimal enforcement. As a result, vulnerable communities continue to experience escalating human and economic costs along the wildland-urban interface (WUI). Quantifying vegetative fuels at both the community and parcel scale requires detailed imaging from an aircraft with remote sensing technology to reduce uncertainty. FireWatch has been delivering high spatial resolution (5” ground sample distance) wildfire hazard maps annually to the community of Rancho Santa Fe, CA, since 2019. FireWatch uses a multispectral imaging system mounted onboard an aircraft to create georeferenced orthomosaics and spectral vegetation index maps. Using proprietary algorithms, the vegetation type, condition, and proximity to structures are determined for 1,851 properties in the community. Secondary data processing combines object-based classification of vegetative fuels, assisted by machine learning, to prioritize mitigation strategies within the community. The remote sensing data for the 10 sq. mi. community is divided into parcels and sent to all homeowners in the form of defensible space maps and reports. Follow-up aerial surveys are performed annually using repeat station imaging of fixed GPS locations to address changes in defensible space, vegetation fuel cover, and condition over time. These maps and reports have increased wildfire awareness and mitigation efforts from 40% to over 85% among homeowners in Rancho Santa Fe. To assist homeowners fighting increasing insurance premiums and non-renewals, FireWatch has partnered with Black Swan Analytics, LLC, to leverage the multispectral imagery and increase homeowners’ understanding of wildfire risk drivers. For this study, a subsample of 100 parcels was selected to gain a comprehensive understanding of wildfire risk and the elements which can be mitigated. Geospatial data from FireWatch’s defensible space maps was combined with Black Swan’s patented approach using 39 other risk characteristics into a 4score Report. The 4score Report helps property owners understand risk sources and potential mitigation opportunities by assessing four categories of risk: Fuel sources, ignition sources, susceptibility to loss, and hazards to fire protection efforts (FISH). This study has shown that susceptibility to loss is the category residents and property owners must focus their efforts. The 4score Report also provides a tool to measure the impact of homeowner actions on risk levels over time. Resiliency is the only solution to breaking the cycle of community wildfire destruction and it starts with high-quality data and education.

Keywords: defensible space, geospatial data, multispectral imaging, Rancho Santa Fe, susceptibility to loss, wildfire risk.

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Authors: Lokesh Harshe

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The building construction sector is using 36% of global energy consumption with 39% of CO₂ emission. Professionals in the Built Environment Sector have long been aware of the industry’s contribution towards CO₂ emissions and are now moving towards more sustainable practices. As a result of this, many organizations have introduced rating systems to address the issue of global warming in the construction sector by ranking construction projects based on sustainability parameters. The pre-construction phase of any building project is the most essential time to make decisions for addressing the sustainability aspects. Traditionally, it is very difficult to collect data from different stakeholders and bring it together to form a decision based on factual data to perform sustainability analyses in the pre-construction phase. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is the solution where one single model is the result of the collaborative approach of BIM processes where all the information is shared, extracted, communicated, and stored on a single platform that everyone can access and make decisions based on real-time data. The focus of this research is on the Indian Green Rating System IGBC® with the objective of understanding IGBC® requirements and developing a framework to create the relationship between the rating processes and BIM. A Hypothetical (Architectural) model of a hostel building is developed using AutoCAD 2019 & Revit Arch. 2019, where the framework is applied to generate results on sustainability analysis using Green Building Studio (GBS) and Revit Add-ins. The results of any sustainability analysis are generated within a fraction of a minute, which is very quick in comparison with traditional sustainability analysis. This may save a considerable amount of time as well as cost. The future scope is to integrate Architectural, Structural, and MEP Models to perform accurate sustainability analyses with inputs from industry professionals working on real-life Green BIM projects.

Keywords: sustainability analyses, BIM, green rating systems, IGBC®, LEED

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Authors: V. A. Ritchie

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The loss of life and livelihood experienced after the magnitude 9.3 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami on 26 December 2004 and magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan on 11 March 2011, has raised global awareness and brought tsunami phenomenology, nomenclature, and representation into sharp focus. At the same time, travel and tourism continue to increase, contributing around 1 in 11 jobs worldwide. This increase in tourism is especially true for coastal zones, placing pressure on decision-makers to downplay tsunami risks and at the same time provide adequate tsunami warning so that holidaymakers will feel confident enough to visit places of high tsunami risk. This study investigates how well tsunami preparedness messages are getting through for tourist-based businesses in Hawke’s Bay New Zealand, a region of frequent seismic activity and a high probability of experiencing a nearshore tsunami. The aim of this study is to investigate whether tourists based businesses are well informed about tsunamis, how well they understand that information and to what extent their clients are included in awareness raising and evacuation processes. In high-risk tsunami zones, such as Hawke’s Bay, tourism based businesses face competitive tension between short term business profitability and longer term reputational issues related to preventable loss of life from natural hazards, such as tsunamis. This study will address ways to accommodate culturally and linguistically relevant tourist awareness measures without discouraging tourists or being too costly to implement.

Keywords: tsunami risk and response, travel and tourism, business preparedness, cross cultural knowledge transfer

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Authors: Aizati N. A. Daud, Jorieke E. H. Bergman, Wilhelmina S. Kerstjens-Frederikse, Pieter Van Der Vlies, Eelko Hak, Rolf M. F. Berger, Henk Groen, Bob Wilffert

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Prenatal use of SRIs was previously associated with Congenital Heart Anomalies (CHA). The aim of the study is to explore whether pharmacogenetics plays a role in this teratogenicity using a gene-environment interaction study. A total of 33 case-mother dyads and 2 mother-only (children deceased) registered in EUROCAT Northern Netherlands were included in a case-only study. Five case-mother dyads and two mothers-only were exposed to SRIs (paroxetine=3, fluoxetine=2, venlafaxine=1, paroxetine and venlafaxine=1) in the first trimester of pregnancy. The remaining 28 case-mother dyads were not exposed to SRIs. Ten genes that encode the enzymes or proteins important in determining fetal exposure to SRIs or its mechanism of action were selected: CYPs (CYP1A2, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6), ABCB1 (placental P-glycoprotein), SLC6A4 (serotonin transporter) and serotonin receptor genes (HTR1A, HTR1B, HTR2A, and HTR3B). All included subjects were genotyped for 58 genetic variations in these ten genes. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the interaction odds ratio (OR) between genetic variations and SRIs exposure on the risk of CHA. Due to low phenotype frequencies of CYP450 poor metabolizers among exposed cases, the OR cannot be calculated. For ABCB1, there was no indication of changes in the risk of CHA with any of the ABCB1 SNPs in the children and their mothers. Several genetic variations of the serotonin transporter and receptors (SLC6A4 5-HTTLPR and 5-HTTVNTR, HTR1A rs1364043, HTR1B rs6296 & rs6298, HTR3B rs1176744) were associated with an increased risk of CHA, but with too limited sample size to reach statistical significance. For SLC6A4 genetic variations, the mean genetic scores of the exposed case-mothers tended to be higher than the unexposed mothers (2.5 ± 0.8 and 1.88 ± 0.7, respectively; p=0.061). For SNPs of the serotonin receptors, the mean genetic score for exposed cases (children) tended to be higher than the unexposed cases (3.4 ± 2.2, and 1.9 ± 1.6, respectively; p=0.065). This study might be among the first to explore the potential gene-environment interaction between pharmacogenetic determinants and SRIs use on the risk of CHA. With small sample sizes, it was not possible to find a significant interaction. However, there were indications for a role of serotonin receptor polymorphisms in fetuses exposed to SRIs on fetal risk of CHA which warrants further investigation.

Keywords: gene-environment interaction, heart defects, pharmacogenetics, serotonin reuptake inhibitors, teratogenicity

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Authors: Mohammad Mokhtari, Mehdi Masoodi, Parvaneh Faridi

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history of tsunami generating earthquakes along the Makran Subduction Zone provides evidence of the potential tsunami hazard for the whole coastal area. In comparison with other subduction zone in the world, the Makran region of southern Pakistan and southeastern Iran remains low seismicity. Also, it is one of the least studied area in the northwest of the Indian Ocean regarding tsunami studies. We present a review of studies dealing with the historical /and ongoing palaeotsunamis supported by IGCP of UNESCO in the Makran Subduction Zone. The historical tsunami presented here includes about nine tsunamis in the Makran Subduction Zone, of which over 7 tsunamis occur in the eastern Makran. Tsunami is not as common in the western Makran as in the eastern Makran, where a database of historical events exists. The historically well-documented event is related to the 1945 earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1moment magnitude and tsunami in the western and eastern Makran. There are no details as to whether a tsunami was generated by a seismic event before 1945 off western Makran. But several potentially large tsunamigenic events in the MSZ before 1945 occurred in 325 B.C., 1008, 1483, 1524, 1765, 1851, 1864, and 1897. Here we will present new findings from a historical point of view, immediately, we would like to emphasize that the area needs to be considered with higher research investigation. As mentioned above, a palaeotsunami (geological evidence) is now being planned, and here we will present the first phase result. From a risk point of view, the study shows as preliminary achievement within 20 minutes the wave reaches to Iranian as well Pakistan and Oman coastal zone with very much destructive tsunami waves capable of inundating destructive effect. It is important to note that all the coastal areas of all states surrounding the MSZ are being developed very rapidly, so any event would have a devastating effect on this region. Although several papers published about modelling, seismology, tsunami deposits in the last decades; as Makran is a forgotten subduction zone, more data such as the main crustal structure, fault location, and its related parameter are required.

Keywords: historical tsunami, Indian ocean, makran subduction zone, palaeotsunami

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Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

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Authors: Jitaree Tantiyasawatdikul, Bantita Jadnok, Sarunya Tijana

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Background: Nutritional status is an important factor before, during, and after an operation. It can help wound healing. If the patients have good nutritional status before and after an operation, wound healing can occur more easily. It can strengthen the immune system leading to decreased infection, reduced length of stay, and reducing the cost to patients and caregivers. Therefore, screening to evaluate the nutritional status of patients in 3B becomes the database for further developing the treatment and also will lead to excellent service from the interdisciplinary team. Objective: To study the nutritional status of patients in surgical ward 3B at Surgical and Orthopedics Nursing Division, Srinagarind Hospital. Method: A descriptive study, to evaluate the nutritional status of 86 patients admitted in 3B between October 2014 and March 2015.The instruments used in this study consisted of two parts: 1) personal data, 2) Screening nutritional status. The data were analyzed by percentage and mean. Results: A sample population of 86 patients aged 22-81 years old, mean age 52.59years, 90.69% are married, female were 55.81%, regular diet 70.93%, patients with no problem oral cavity was 87.21%.The sample population had high incidence of CA 47.67% and secondly cardiovascular disease 36.05 %. Patients with high-risk nutrition was 12.79 % including 45.45% cardiovascular disease and 36.36% CA. Screening of nutritional status of high-risk nutrition was 39.36% severe triceps skinfold (TSF), severe mid-arm muscle circumference(MAMC) 9.09% and severe total lymphocyte 39.36%. Conclusion: The result of nutritional status screening of surgical ward 3B found 12.79% patients with high-risk nutrition including 45.45% with cardiovascular disease .There was no problem with oral cavity and eating.

Keywords: nutritional status, screening, surgical patients, 3B ward, Srinagarind Hospital

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Authors: Nadeen Felemban, Hamsa Banjer, Rabaah Jaafari

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One of the most common hazards in the pharmaceutical industry is the chemical hazard, which can cause harm or develop occupational health diseases/illnesses due to chronic exposures to hazardous substances. Therefore, a chemical agent management system is required, including hazard identification, risk assessment, controls for specific hazards and inspections, to keep your workplace healthy and safe. However, routine management monitoring is also required to verify the effectiveness of the control measures. Moreover, Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate are some of the APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) with highly hazardous classification-Occupational Hazard Category (OHC 4), which requires a full containment (ECA-D) during handling to avoid chemical exposure. According to Safety Data Sheet, those chemicals are reproductive toxicants (reprotoxicant H360D), which may affect female workers’ health and cause fatal damage to an unborn child, or impair fertility. In this study, qualitative (chemical Risk assessment-qCRA) was conducted to assess the chemical exposure during handling of Betamethasone Valerate and Clobetasol Propionate in pharmaceutical laboratories. The outcomes of qCRA identified that there is a risk of potential chemical exposure (risk rating 8 Amber risk). Therefore, immediate actions were taken to ensure interim controls (according to the Hierarchy of controls) are in place and in use to minimize the risk of chemical exposure. No open handlings should be done out of the Steroid Glove Box Isolator (SGB) with the required Personal Protective Equipment (PPEs). The PPEs include coverall, nitrile hand gloves, safety shoes and powered air-purifying respirators (PAPR). Furthermore, a quantitative assessment (personal air sampling) was conducted to verify the effectiveness of the engineering controls (SGB Isolator) and to confirm if there is chemical exposure, as indicated earlier by qCRA. Three personal air samples were collected using an air sampling pump and filter (IOM2 filters, 25mm glass fiber media). The collected samples were analyzed by HPLC in the BV lab, and the measured concentrations were reported in (ug/m3) with reference to Occupation Exposure Limits, 8hr OELs (8hr TWA) for each analytic. The analytical results are needed in 8hr TWA (8hr Time-weighted Average) to be analyzed using Bayesian statistics (IHDataAnalyst). The results of the Bayesian Likelihood Graph indicate (category 0), which means Exposures are de "minimus," trivial, or non-existent Employees have little to no exposure. Also, these results indicate that the 3 samplings are representative samplings with very low variations (SD=0.0014). In conclusion, the engineering controls were effective in protecting the operators from such exposure. However, routine chemical monitoring is required every 3 years unless there is a change in the processor type of chemicals. Also, frequent management monitoring (daily, weekly, and monthly) is required to ensure the control measures are in place and in use. Furthermore, a Similar Exposure Group (SEG) was identified in this activity and included in the annual health surveillance for health monitoring.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, chemical exposure, hierarchy of control, reproductive

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Authors: Marcel Meinhardt, Manfred Keuser, Thomas Braml

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Cracking of reinforced concrete is a complex phenomenon induced by direct loads or restraints affecting reinforced concrete structures as soon as the tensile strength of the concrete is exceeded. Hence it is important to predict where cracks will be located and how they will propagate. The bond theory and the crack formulas in the actual design codes, for example, DIN EN 1992-1-1, are all based on the assumption that the reinforcement bars are embedded in homogeneous concrete without taking into account the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress situation. However, it can often be observed that real structures such as walls, slabs or beams show a crack spacing that is orientated to the transverse reinforcement bars or to the stirrups. In most Finite Element Analysis studies, the smeared crack approach is used for crack prediction. The disadvantage of this model is that the typical strain localization of a crack on element level can’t be seen. The crack propagation in concrete is a discontinuous process characterized by different factors such as the initial random distribution of defects or the scatter of material properties. Such behavior presupposes the elaboration of adequate models and methods of simulation because traditional mechanical approaches deal mainly with average material parameters. This paper concerned with the modelling of the initiation and the propagation of cracks in reinforced concrete structures considering the influence of transverse reinforcement and the real stress distribution in reinforced concrete (R/C) beams/plates in bending action. Therefore, a parameter study was carried out to investigate: (I) the influence of the transversal reinforcement to the stress distribution in concrete in bending mode and (II) the crack initiation in dependence of the diameter and distance of the transversal reinforcement to each other. The numerical investigations on the crack initiation and propagation were carried out with a 2D reinforced concrete structure subjected to quasi static loading and given boundary conditions. To model the uncertainty in the tensile strength of concrete in the Finite Element Analysis correlated normally and lognormally distributed random filed with different correlation lengths were generated. The paper also presents and discuss different methods to generate random fields, e.g. the Covariance Matrix Decomposition Method. For all computations, a plastic constitutive law with softening was used to model the crack initiation and the damage of the concrete in tension. It was found that the distributions of crack spacing and crack widths are highly dependent of the used random field. These distributions are validated to experimental studies on R/C panels which were carried out at the Laboratory for Structural Engineering at the University of the German Armed Forces in Munich. Also, a recommendation for parameters of the random field for realistic modelling the uncertainty of the tensile strength is given. The aim of this research was to show a method in which the localization of strains and cracks as well as the influence of transverse reinforcement on the crack initiation and propagation in Finite Element Analysis can be seen.

Keywords: crack initiation, crack modelling, crack propagation, cracks, numerical simulation, random fields, reinforced concrete, stochastic

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