Search results for: psychological tests
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6196

Search results for: psychological tests

4516 Revision of Arthroplasty in Rheumatoid and Osteoarthritis: Methotrexate and Radiographic Lucency in RA Patients

Authors: Mike T. Wei, Douglas N. Mintz, Lisa A. Mandl, Arielle W. Fein, Jayme C. Burket, Yuo-Yu Lee, Wei-Ti Huang, Vivian P. Bykerk, Mark P. Figgie, Edward F. Di Carlo, Bruce N. Cronstein, Susan M. Goodman

Abstract:

Background/Purpose: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have excellent total hip arthroplasty (THA) survival, and methotrexate (MTX), an anti-inflammatory disease modifying drug which may affect bone reabsorption, may play a role. The purpose of this study is to determine the diagnosis leading to revision THA (rTHA) in RA patients and to assess the association of radiographic lucency with MTX use. Methods: All patients with validated diagnosis of RA in the institution’s THA registry undergoing rTHA from May 2007 - February 2011 were eligible. Diagnosis leading to rTHA and medication use was determined by chart review. Osteolysis was evaluated on available radiographs by measuring maximum lucency in each Gruen zone. Differences within RA patients with/without MTX in osteolysis, demographics, and medications were assessed with chi-squared, Fisher's exact tests or Mann-Whitney U tests as appropriate. The error rate for multiple comparisons of lucency in the different Gruen zones was corrected via false discovery rate methods. A secondary analysis was performed to determine differences in diagnoses leading to revision between RA and matched OA controls (2:1 match by sex age +/- 5 years). OA exclusion criteria included presence of rheumatic diseases, use of MTX, and lack of records. Results: 51 RA rTHA were identified and compared with 103 OA. Mean age for RA was 57.7 v 59.4 years for OA (p = 0.240). 82.4% RA were female v 83.5% OA (p = 0.859). RA had lower BMI than OA (25.5 v 28.2; p = 0.166). There was no difference in diagnosis leading to rTHA, including infection (RA 3.9 v OA 6.8%; p = 0.719) or dislocation (RA 23.5 v OA 23.3%; p = 0.975). There was no significant difference in the length of time the implant was in before revision: RA 11.0 v OA 8.8 years (p = 0.060). Among RA with/without MTX, there was no difference in use of biologics (30.0 v 43.3%, p = 0.283), steroids (47.6 v 50.0%, p = 0.867) or bisphosphonates (23.8 v 33.3%, p = 0.543). There was no difference in rTHA diagnosis with/without MTX, including loosening (52.4 v 56.7%, p = 0.762). There was no significant difference in lucencies with MTX use in any Gruen zone. Patients with MTX had femoral stem subsidence of 3.7mm v no subsidence without MTX (p = 0.006). Conclusion: There was no difference in the diagnosis leading to rTHR in RA and OA, although RA trended longer prior to rTHA. In this small retrospective study, there were no significant differences associated with MTX exposure or radiographic lucency among RA patients. The significance of subsidence is not clear. Further study of arthroplasty survival in RA patients is warranted.

Keywords: hip arthroplasty, methotrexate, revision arthroplasty, rheumatoid arthritis

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4515 The Effects of Shift Work on Neurobehavioral Performance: A Meta Analysis

Authors: Thomas Vlasak, Tanja Dujlociv, Alfred Barth

Abstract:

Shift work is an essential element of modern labor, ensuring ideal conditions of service for today’s economy and society. Despite the beneficial properties, its impact on the neurobehavioral performance of exposed subjects remains controversial. This meta-analysis aims to provide first summarizing the effects regarding the association between shift work exposure and different cognitive functions. A literature search was performed via the databases PubMed, PsyINFO, PsyARTICLES, MedLine, PsycNET and Scopus including eligible studies until December 2020 that compared shift workers with non-shift workers regarding neurobehavioral performance tests. A random-effects model was carried out using Hedge’s g as a meta-analytical effect size with a restricted likelihood estimator to summarize the mean differences between the exposure group and controls. The heterogeneity of effect sizes was addressed by a sensitivity analysis using funnel plots, egger’s tests, p-curve analysis, meta-regressions, and subgroup analysis. The meta-analysis included 18 studies resulting in a total sample of 18,802 participants and 37 effect sizes concerning six different neurobehavioral outcomes. The results showed significantly worse performance in shift workers compared to non-shift workers in the following cognitive functions with g (95% CI): processing speed 0.16 (0.02 - 0.30), working memory 0.28 (0.51 - 0.50), psychomotor vigilance 0.21 (0.05 - 0.37), cognitive control 0.86 (0.45 - 1.27) and visual attention 0.19 (0.11 - 0.26). Neither significant moderating effects of publication year or study quality nor significant subgroup differences regarding type of shift or type of profession were indicated for the cognitive outcomes. These are the first meta-analytical findings that associate shift work with decreased cognitive performance in processing speed, working memory, psychomotor vigilance, cognitive control, and visual attention. Further studies should focus on a more homogenous measurement of cognitive functions, a precise assessment of experience of shift work and occupation types which are underrepresented in the current literature (e.g., law enforcement). In occupations where shift work is fundamental (e.g., healthcare, industries, law enforcement), protective countermeasures should be promoted for workers.

Keywords: meta-analysis, neurobehavioral performance, occupational psychology, shift work

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
4514 Sympathetic Skin Response and Reaction Times in Chronic Autoimmune Thyroiditis; An Overlooked Electrodiagnostic Study

Authors: Oya Umit Yemisci, Nur Saracgil Cosar, Tubanur Ozturk Sisman, Selin Ozen

Abstract:

Chronic autoimmune thyroiditis (AIT) may result in a wide spectrum of reversible abnormalities in the neuromuscular function. Usually, proximal muscle-related symptoms and neuropathic findings such as mild axonal peripheral neuropathy have been reported. Sympathetic skin responses are useful in evaluating sudomotor activity of the unmyelinated sympathetic fibers of the autonomic nervous system. Neurocognitive impairment may also be a prominent feature of hypothyroidism, particularly in elderly patients. Electromyographic reaction times as a highly sensitive parameter provides. Objective data concerning cognitive and motor functions. The aim of this study was to evaluate peripheral nerve functions, sympathetic skin response and electroneuromyographic (ENMG) reaction times in euthyroid and subclinically hypothyroid patients with a diagnosis of AIT and compare to those of a control group. Thirty-five euthyroid, 19 patients with subclinical hypothyroidism and 35 age and sex-matched healthy subjects were included in the study. Motor and sensory nerve conduction studies, sympathetic skin responses recorded from hand and foot by stimulating contralateral median nerve and simple reaction times by stimulating tibial nerve and recording from extensor indicis proprius muscle were performed to all patients and control group. Only median nerve sensory conduction velocities of the forearm were slower in patients with AIT compared to the control group (p=0.019). Otherwise, nerve conduction studies and sympathetic skin responses showed no significant difference between the patients and the control group. However, reaction times were shorter in the healthy subjects compared to AIT patients. Prolongation in the reaction times may be considered as a parameter reflecting the alterations in the cognitive functions related to the primary disease process in AIT. Combining sympathetic skin responses with more quantitative tests such as cardiovascular tests and sudomotor axon reflex testing may allow us to determine higher rates of involvement of the autonomic nervous system in AIT.

Keywords: sympathetic skin response, simple reaction time, chronic autoimmune thyroiditis

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4513 Active Features Determination: A Unified Framework

Authors: Meenal Badki

Abstract:

We address the issue of active feature determination, where the objective is to determine the set of examples on which additional data (such as lab tests) needs to be gathered, given a large number of examples with some features (such as demographics) and some examples with all the features (such as the complete Electronic Health Record). We note that certain features may be more costly, unique, or laborious to gather. Our proposal is a general active learning approach that is independent of classifiers and similarity metrics. It allows us to identify examples that differ from the full data set and obtain all the features for the examples that match. Our comprehensive evaluation shows the efficacy of this approach, which is driven by four authentic clinical tasks.

Keywords: feature determination, classification, active learning, sample-efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 69
4512 A Study of Sexual Violence on Women and Children in Hong Kong

Authors: Wing Hang Shelley Leung

Abstract:

With the rise of the recent social movement, namely #MeToo, it shows that a lot of women and children in fact suffered from sexual abuse and some even suffered from child abuse, including in Hong Kong. In view of the ongoing social movements, this paper argues that we have to look beyond their impacts and understand the roots of the problem: what if the underlying cause of the recent social movements was the inherited values that were rooted in us since we were young, or the public’s lack of confidence in the legal system when it comes to this type of personal matters? What if the movements reveal the problematic issue of the lack of protection plans, either in the private or public sphere? If the legal system is presumed to not be able to preemptively protect everyone or effectively punish all perpetrators, can other pillars provide supports to fill in the loopholes of the legal system? This paper takes a theoretical approach to look into current sexuality education, the legal system in Hong Kong and the adoption of Asian values in society to argue that difficulties that are being placed onto victims in disclosing sexual violence they had experienced. Reviews of the current system and recent sexual assaults court cases for case studies allow the research to address the issues of victims’ experience including (a) their reactions to incidents; (b) issues they have in trials; (c) psychological impacts of the incidents; and (d) their understandings of gender equality before and after incidents. The study is significant because it criticises the current legal system in Hong Kong and provides insights to the public by explaining the dynamics between the problem, the legal system and the society. Also, it contributes to the ongoing research about the psychological impacts to victims in Hong Kong, especially how they are placed in a disadvantaged position in the legal system and society and even for their recovery. It contributes to the findings of how family structures, parental responsibilities and gender studies influence a child’s perception of gender equality in Hong Kong and hence their immediate reactions to incidents. To fully address the needs of victims, especially our younger generation, as well as to prevent future harm and to raise awareness, an inclusive framework which recognizes the needs of protecting and safeguarding women and children in the private sphere and a proper education for gender equality are needed.

Keywords: child abuse, children's rights, domestic violence, gender equality, Hong Kong, Me too, sexual violence, women's rights

Procedia PDF Downloads 161
4511 Duration of Isolated Vowels in Infants with Cochlear Implants

Authors: Paris Binos

Abstract:

The present work investigates developmental aspects of the duration of isolated vowels in infants with normal hearing compared to those who received cochlear implants (CIs) before two years of age. Infants with normal hearing produced shorter vowel duration since this find related with more mature production abilities. First isolated vowels are transparent during the protophonic stage as evidence of an increased motor and linguistic control. Vowel duration is a crucial factor for the transition of prelexical speech to normal adult speech. Despite current knowledge of data for infants with normal hearing more research is needed to unravel productions skills in early implanted children. Thus, isolated vowel productions by two congenitally hearing-impaired Greek infants (implantation ages 1:4-1:11; post-implant ages 0:6-1:3) were recorded and sampled for six months after implantation with a Nucleus-24. The results compared with the productions of three normal hearing infants (chronological ages 0:8-1:1). Vegetative data and vocalizations masked by external noise or sounds were excluded. Participants had no other disabilities and had unknown deafness etiology. Prior to implantation the infants had an average unaided hearing loss of 95-110 dB HL while the post-implantation PTA decreased to 10-38 dB HL. The current research offers a methodology for the processing of the prelinguistic productions based on a combination of acoustical and auditory analyses. Based on the current methodological framework, duration measured through spectrograms based on wideband analysis, from the voicing onset to the end of the vowel. The end marked by two co-occurring events: 1) The onset of aperiodicity with a rapid change in amplitude in the waveform and 2) a loss in formant’s energy. Cut-off levels of significance were set at 0.05 for all tests. Bonferroni post hoc tests indicated that difference was significant between the mean duration of vowels of infants wearing CIs and their normal hearing peers. Thus, the mean vowel duration of CIs measured longer compared to the normal hearing peers (0.000). The current longitudinal findings contribute to the existing data for the performance of children wearing CIs at a very young age and enrich also the data of the Greek language. The above described weakness for CI’s performance is a challenge for future work in speech processing and CI’s processing strategies.

Keywords: cochlear implant, duration, spectrogram, vowel

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4510 Nutrition, Dental Status and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder among Underage Refugees in Germany

Authors: Marios Loucas, Rafael Loucas, Oliver Muensterer

Abstract:

Aim of the Study: Over the last two years, there has been a substantial rise of refugees entering Germany, of which approximately one-third are underage. Little is known about the general state of health such as nutrition, dental status and post-traumatic stress disorder among underage refugees. Our study assesses the general health status of underage refugees based on a large sample cohort. Methods: After ethics board approval, we used a structured questionnaire to collect demographic information and health-related elements in 3 large refugee accommodation centers, focusing on nutritional and dental status, as well as symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Main results: A total of 461 minor refugees were included. The majority were boys (54.5%), average age was 8 years. Out of the 8 recorded countries of origin, most children came from Syria (33.6%), followed by Afghanistan (23.2%). Of the participants, 50.3% reported DSM-5 criteria of Posttraumatic stress disorder and presented mental health-related problems. The most frequently reported mental abnormalities were concentration disturbances (15.2%), sleep disorders (6.9%), unclear headaches (5.4%). The majority of the participants showed an unfavorable nutritional and dental status. According to the family, the majority of the children rarely eat healthy foods such as fruits, vegetables and fish. However, the majority of these children (over 90%) consume a large quantity of sugary foods and sweetened drinks such as soft drinks and confectionery at least daily. Caries was found in 63% of the minor children included in the study. A large proportion (47%) reported never brushing their teeth. According to the family, 78.3% of refugee children have never been evaluated by a dentist in Germany. The remainder visited a dentist mainly because of unbearable toothache. Conclusions: Minor refugees have specific psychological, nutritional and dental problems that must be considered in order to ensure appropriate medical care. Posttraumatic stress disorder is mainly caused by physical and emotional trauma suffered either during the flight or in the refugee camp in Germany. These data call for widespread screening of psychological, dental and nutritional problems in underage refugees. Dental care of this cohort is completely inadequate. Nutritional programs should focus on educating the families and providing the means to obtain healthy foods for these children.

Keywords: children, nutrition, posttraumatic stress disorder, refugee

Procedia PDF Downloads 169
4509 Twin Deficits Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey

Authors: Mehmet Mucuk, Ayşen Edirneligil

Abstract:

Budget and current account deficits are main problems for all countries. There are different approaches about the relationship between budget deficit and current account deficit. While Keynesian view accepts that there is a casual link between these variables, Ricardian equivalence hypothesis rejects it. The aim of this study is to analyze the validity of Keynesian view for Turkish Economy using VAR analysis with the monthly data in the period of 2006-2014. In this context, it will be used Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse-Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests.

Keywords: budget deficit, current account deficit, Turkish economy, twin deficits

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4508 A Very Efficient Pseudo-Random Number Generator Based On Chaotic Maps and S-Box Tables

Authors: M. Hamdi, R. Rhouma, S. Belghith

Abstract:

Generating random numbers are mainly used to create secret keys or random sequences. It can be carried out by various techniques. In this paper we present a very simple and efficient pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) based on chaotic maps and S-Box tables. This technique adopted two main operations one to generate chaotic values using two logistic maps and the second to transform them into binary words using random S-Box tables. The simulation analysis indicates that our PRNG possessing excellent statistical and cryptographic properties.

Keywords: Random Numbers, Chaotic map, S-box, cryptography, statistical tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
4507 The Study of Thai Millennial Attitude toward End-of-Life Planning, Opportunity of Service Design Development

Authors: Mawong R., Bussracumpakorn C.

Abstract:

Millions of young people around the world have been affected by COVID-19 to their psychological and social effects. Millennials’ stresses have been shaped by a few global issues, including climate change, political instability, and financial crisis. In particular, the spread of COVID-19 has become laying psychological and socioeconomic scars on them. When end-of-life planning turns into more widely discussed, the stigma and taboos around this issue are greatly lessened. End-of-life planning is defined as a future life plan, such as financial, legacy, funeral, and memorial planning. This plan would help millennials to discover the value and meaning of life. This study explores the attitudes of Thai Millennials toward end-of-life planning as a new normal awareness of life in order to initiate an innovative service concept to fit with their value and meaning. The study conducts an in-depth interview with 12 potential participants who have awareness or action on the plan. The framework of the customer journey map is used to analyze the responses to examine trigger points, barriers, beliefs, and expectations. The findings pointed to a service concept that is suggested for a new end-of-life planning service that is suited to Thai Millennials in 4 different groups, which are 1. Social -Conscious as a socially aware who to donate time and riches to make the world and society a better place, their end-of-life planning value is inspired by the social impact of giving something or some action that they will be able to do after life or during life which provides a variety of choice based on their preference to give to society, 2. Life Fulfillment who make a life goal for themselves and attempt to achieve it before the time comes to their value will be to inspire life value with a customized plan and provide guidance to suggest, 3. Prevention of the After-Death Effect who want to plan to avoid the effects of their death as patriarch, head of the family, and anchor of someone, so they want to have a plan that brings confidence and feel relief while they are still alive and they want to find some reliable service that they can leave the death will or asset, and 4. No Guilty Planning who plan for when they wish to be worry-free as a self-responsible they want to have the plan which is easy to understand and easy to access. The overall finding of the study is to understand the new service concept of end-of-life planning which to improve knowledge of significant life worth rather than death planning, encouraging people to reassess their lives in a positive way, leading to higher self-esteem and intrinsic motivation for this generation in this time of global crisis.

Keywords: design management, end-of-life planning, millennial generation, service design solution

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4506 In-situ Observations Using SEM-EBSD for Bending Deformation in Single-Crystal Materials

Authors: Yuko Matayoshi, Takashi Sakai, Yin-Gjum Jin, Jun-ichi Koyama

Abstract:

To elucidate the material characteristics of single crystals of pure aluminum and copper, the respective relations between crystallographic orientations and micro structures were examined, along with bending and mechanical properties. The texture distribution was also analysed. Bending tests were performed in a SEM apparatus while its behaviors were observed. Some analytical results related to crystal direction maps, inverse pole figures, and textures were obtained from electron back scatter diffraction (EBSD) analyses.

Keywords: pure aluminum, pure copper, single crystal, bending, SEM-EBSD analysis, texture, microstructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
4505 Consumers and Voters’ Choice: Two Different Contexts with a Powerful Behavioural Parallel

Authors: Valentina Dolmova

Abstract:

What consumers choose to buy and who voters select on election days are two questions that have captivated the interest of both academics and practitioners for many decades. The importance of understanding what influences the behavior of those groups and whether or not we can predict or control it fuels a steady stream of research in a range of fields. By looking only at the past 40 years, more than 70 thousand scientific papers have been published in each field – consumer behavior and political psychology, respectively. From marketing, economics, and the science of persuasion to political and cognitive psychology - we have all remained heavily engaged. The ever-evolving technology, inevitable socio-cultural shifts, global economic conditions, and much more play an important role in choice-equations regardless of context. On one hand, this makes the research efforts always relevant and needed. On the other, the relatively low number of cross-field collaborations, which seem to be picking up only in more in recent years, makes the existing findings isolated into framed bubbles. By performing systematic research across both areas of psychology and building a parallel between theories and factors of influence, however, we find that there is not only a definitive common ground between the behaviors of consumers and voters but that we are moving towards a global model of choice. This means that the lines between contexts are fading which has a direct implication on what we should focus on when predicting or navigating buyers and voters’ behavior. Internal and external factors in four main categories determine the choices we make as consumers and as voters. Together, personal, psychological, social, and cultural create a holistic framework through which all stimuli in relation to a particular product or a political party get filtered. The analogy “consumer-voter” solidifies further. Leading academics suggest that this fundamental parallel is the key to managing successfully political and consumer brands alike. However, we distinguish additional four key stimuli that relate to those factor categories (1/ opportunity costs; 2/the memory of the past; 3/recognisable figures/faces and 4/conflict) arguing that the level of expertise a person has determines the prevalence of factors or specific stimuli. Our efforts take into account global trends such as the establishment of “celebrity politics” and the image of “ethically concerned consumer brands” which bridge the gap between contexts to an even greater extent. Scientists and practitioners are pushed to accept the transformative nature of both fields in social psychology. Existing blind spots as well as the limited number of research conducted outside the American and European societies open up space for more collaborative efforts in this highly demanding and lucrative field. A mixed method of research tests three main hypotheses, the first two of which are focused on the level of irrelevance of context when comparing voting or consumer behavior – both from the factors and stimuli lenses, the third on determining whether or not the level of expertise in any field skews the weight of what prism we are more likely to choose when evaluating options.

Keywords: buyers’ behaviour, decision-making, voters’ behaviour, social psychology

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4504 Development of a New Device for Bending Fatigue Testing

Authors: B. Mokhtarnia, M. Layeghi

Abstract:

This work presented an original bending fatigue-testing setup for fatigue characterization of composite materials. A three-point quasi-static setup was introduced that was capable of applying stress control load in different loading waveforms, frequencies, and stress ratios. This setup was equipped with computerized measuring instruments to evaluate fatigue damage mechanisms. A detailed description of its different parts and working features was given, and dynamic analysis was done to verify the functional accuracy of the device. Feasibility was validated successfully by conducting experimental fatigue tests.

Keywords: bending fatigue, quasi-static testing setup, experimental fatigue testing, composites

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4503 Structuring Paraphrases: The Impact Sentence Complexity Has on Key Leader Engagements

Authors: Meaghan Bowman

Abstract:

Soldiers are taught about the importance of effective communication with repetition of the phrase, “Communication is key.” They receive training in preparing for, and carrying out, interactions between foreign and domestic leaders to gain crucial information about a mission. These interactions are known as Key Leader Engagements (KLEs). For the training of KLEs, doctrine mandates the skills needed to conduct these “engagements” such as how to: behave appropriately, identify key leaders, and employ effective strategies. Army officers in training learn how to confront leaders, what information to gain, and how to ask questions respectfully. Unfortunately, soldiers rarely learn how to formulate questions optimally. Since less complex questions are easier to understand, we hypothesize that semantic complexity affects content understanding, and that age and education levels may have an effect on one’s ability to form paraphrases and judge their quality. In this study, we looked at paraphrases of queries as well as judgments of both the paraphrases’ naturalness and their semantic similarity to the query. Queries were divided into three complexity categories based on the number of relations (the first number) and the number of knowledge graph edges (the second number). Two crowd-sourced tasks were completed by Amazon volunteer participants, also known as turkers, to answer the research questions: (i) Are more complex queries harder to paraphrase and judge and (ii) Do age and education level affect the ability to understand complex queries. We ran statistical tests as follows: MANOVA for query understanding and two-way ANOVA to understand the relationship between query complexity and education and age. A probe of the number of given-level queries selected for paraphrasing by crowd-sourced workers in seven age ranges yielded promising results. We found significant evidence that age plays a role and marginally significant evidence that education level plays a role. These preliminary tests, with output p-values of 0.0002 and 0.068, respectively, suggest the importance of content understanding in a communication skill set. This basic ability to communicate, which may differ by age and education, permits reproduction and quality assessment and is crucial in training soldiers for effective participation in KLEs.

Keywords: engagement, key leader, paraphrasing, query complexity, understanding

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4502 Structural Characterization and Application of Tio2 Nano-Partical

Authors: Maru Chetan, Desai Abhilash

Abstract:

The structural characteristics & application of TiO2 powder with different phases are study by various techniques in this paper. TTIP, EG and citric acid use as Ti source and catalyst respectively synthesis for sol gel synthesis of TiO2 powder. To replace sol gel method we develop the new method of making nano particle of TiO2 powder. It is two route method one is physical and second one is chemical route. Specific aim to this process is to minimize the production cost and the large scale production of nano particle The synthesis product work characterize by EDAX, SEM, XRD tests.

Keywords: mortal and pestle, nano particle , TiO2, TTIP

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4501 Effect of Non-metallic Inclusion from the Continuous Casting Process on the Multi-Stage Forging Process and the Tensile Strength of the Bolt: Case Study

Authors: Tomasz Dubiel, Tadeusz Balawender, Miroslaw Osetek

Abstract:

The paper presents the influence of non-metallic inclusions on the multi-stage forging process and the mechanical properties of the dodecagon socket bolt used in the automotive industry. The detected metallurgical defect was so large that it directly influenced the mechanical properties of the bolt and resulted in failure to meet the requirements of the mechanical property class. In order to assess the defect, an X-ray examination and metallographic examination of the defective bolt were performed, showing exogenous non-metallic inclusion. The size of the defect on the cross-section was 0.531 [mm] in width and 1.523 [mm] in length; the defect was continuous along the entire axis of the bolt. In analysis, a FEM simulation of the multi-stage forging process was designed, taking into account a non-metallic inclusion parallel to the sample axis, reflecting the studied case. The process of defect propagation due to material upset in the head area was analyzed. The final forging stage in shaping the dodecagonal socket and filling the flange area was particularly studied. The effect of the defect was observed to significantly reduce the effective cross-section as a result of the expansion of the defect perpendicular to the axis of the bolt. The mechanical properties of products with and without the defect were analyzed. In the first step, the hardness test confirmed that the required value for the mechanical class 8.8 of both bolt types was obtained. In the second step, the bolts were subjected to a static tensile test. The bolts without the defect gave a positive result, while all 10 bolts with the defect gave a negative result, achieving a tensile strength below the requirements. Tensile strength tests were confirmed by metallographic tests and FEM simulation with perpendicular inclusion spread in the area of the head. The bolts were damaged directly under the bolt head, which is inconsistent with the requirements of ISO 898-1. It has been shown that non-metallic inclusions with orientation in accordance with the axis of the bolt can directly cause loss of functionality and these defects should be detected even before assembling in the machine element.

Keywords: continuous casting, multi-stage forging, non-metallic inclusion, upset bolt head

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4500 The Positive Effects of Processing Instruction on the Acquisition of French as a Second Language: An Eye-Tracking Study

Authors: Cecile Laval, Harriet Lowe

Abstract:

Processing Instruction is a psycholinguistic pedagogical approach drawing insights from the Input Processing Model which establishes the initial innate strategies used by second language learners to connect form and meaning of linguistic features. With the ever-growing use of technology in Second Language Acquisition research, the present study uses eye-tracking to measure the effectiveness of Processing Instruction in the acquisition of French and its effects on learner’s cognitive strategies. The experiment was designed using a TOBII Pro-TX300 eye-tracker to measure participants’ default strategies when processing French linguistic input and any cognitive changes after receiving Processing Instruction treatment. Participants were drawn from lower intermediate adult learners of French at the University of Greenwich and randomly assigned to two groups. The study used a pre-test/post-test methodology. The pre-tests (one per linguistic item) were administered via the eye-tracker to both groups one week prior to instructional treatment. One group received full Processing Instruction treatment (explicit information on the grammatical item and on the processing strategies, and structured input activities) on the primary target linguistic feature (French past tense imperfective aspect). The second group received Processing Instruction treatment except the explicit information on the processing strategies. Three immediate post-tests on the three grammatical structures under investigation (French past tense imperfective aspect, French Subjunctive used for the expression of doubt, and the French causative construction with Faire) were administered with the eye-tracker. The eye-tracking data showed the positive change in learners’ processing of the French target features after instruction with improvement in the interpretation of the three linguistic features under investigation. 100% of participants in both groups made a statistically significant improvement (p=0.001) in the interpretation of the primary target feature (French past tense imperfective aspect) after treatment. 62.5% of participants made an improvement in the secondary target item (French Subjunctive used for the expression of doubt) and 37.5% of participants made an improvement in the cumulative target feature (French causative construction with Faire). Statistically there was no significant difference between the pre-test and post-test scores in the cumulative target feature; however, the variance approximately tripled between the pre-test and the post-test (3.9 pre-test and 9.6 post-test). This suggests that the treatment does not affect participants homogenously and implies a role for individual differences in the transfer-of-training effect of Processing Instruction. The use of eye-tracking provides an opportunity for the study of unconscious processing decisions made during moment-by-moment comprehension. The visual data from the eye-tracking demonstrates changes in participants’ processing strategies. Gaze plots from pre- and post-tests display participants fixation points changing from focusing on content words to focusing on the verb ending. This change in processing strategies can be clearly seen in the interpretation of sentences in both primary and secondary target features. This paper will present the research methodology, design and results of the experimental study using eye-tracking to investigate the primary effects and transfer-of-training effects of Processing Instruction. It will then provide evidence of the cognitive benefits of Processing Instruction in Second Language Acquisition and offer suggestion in second language teaching of grammar.

Keywords: eye-tracking, language teaching, processing instruction, second language acquisition

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4499 An Experimental Investigation of Chemical Enhanced Oil Recovery (Ceor) for Fractured Carbonate Reservoirs, Case Study: Kais Formation on Wakamuk Field

Authors: Jackson Andreas Theo Pola, Leksono Mucharam, Hari Oetomo, Budi Susanto, Wisnu Nugraha

Abstract:

About half of the world oil reserves are located in carbonate reservoirs, where 65% of the total carbonate reservoirs are oil wet and 12% intermediate wet [1]. Oil recovery in oil wet or mixed wet carbonate reservoirs can be increased by dissolving surfactant to injected water to change the rock wettability from oil wet to more water wet. The Wakamuk Field operated by PetroChina International (Bermuda) Ltd. and PT. Pertamina EP in Papua, produces from main reservoir of Miocene Kais Limestone. First production commenced on August, 2004 and the peak field production of 1456 BOPD occurred in August, 2010. It was found that is a complex reservoir system and until 2014 cumulative oil production was 2.07 MMBO, less than 9% of OOIP. This performance is indicative of presence of secondary porosity, other than matrix porosity which is of low average porosity 13% and permeability less than 7 mD. Implementing chemical EOR in this case is the best way to increase oil production. However, the selected chemical must be able to lower the interfacial tension (IFT), reduce oil viscosity, and alter the wettability; thus a special chemical treatment named SeMAR has been proposed. Numerous laboratory tests such as phase behavior test, core compatibility test, mixture viscosity, contact angle measurement, IFT, imbibitions test and core flooding were conducted on Wakamuk field samples. Based on the spontaneous imbibitions results for Wakamuk field core, formulation of SeMAR with compositional S12A gave oil recovery 43.94% at 1wt% concentration and maximum percentage of oil recovery 87.3% at 3wt% concentration respectively. In addition, the results for first scenario of core flooding test gave oil recovery 60.32% at 1 wt% concentration S12A and the second scenario gave 96.78% of oil recovery at concentration 3 wt% respectively. The soaking time of chemicals has a significant effect on the recovery and higher chemical concentrations affect larger areas for wettability and therefore, higher oil recovery. The chemical that gives best overall results from laboratory tests study will also be a consideration for Huff and Puff injections trial (pilot project) for increasing oil recovery from Wakamuk Field

Keywords: Wakamuk field, chemical treatment, oil recovery, viscosity

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4498 Safer Staff: A Survey of Staff Experiences of Violence and Aggression at Work in Coventry and Warwickshire Partnership National Health Service Trust

Authors: Rupinder Kaler, Faith Ndebele, Nadia Saleem, Hafsa Sheikh

Abstract:

Background: Workplace related violence and aggression seems to be considered an acceptable occupational hazard for staff in mental health services. There is literature evidence that healthcare workers in mental health settings are at higher risk from aggression from patients. Aggressive behaviours pose a physical and psychological threat to the psychiatric staff and can result in stress, burnout, sickness, and exhaustion. Further evidence informs that health professionals are the most exposed to psychological disorders such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Fear that results from working in a dangerous environment and exhaustion can have a damaging impact on patient care and healthcare relationship. Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate the prevalence and impact of aggressive behaviour on staff working at Coventry and Warwickshire Partnership Trust. Methodology: The study methodology included carrying out a manual, anonymised, multi-disciplinary cross-sectional survey questionnaire across all clinical and non-clinical staff at CWPT from both inpatient and community settings. Findings: The unsurprising finding was that of higher prevalence of aggressive behaviours in in-patients in comparison to community staff. Conclusion: There is a high rate of verbal and physical aggression at work and this has a negative impact on the staff emotional and physical well- being. There is also a higher reliance on colleagues for support on an informal basis than formal organisational support systems. Recommendations: A workforce that is well and functioning is the biggest resource for an organisation. Staff safety during working hours is everyone's responsibility and sits with both individual staff members and the organisation. Post-incident organisational support needs to be consolidated, and hands-on, timely support offered to help maintain emotionally well staff on CWPT. The authors recommend development of preventative and practical protocols for aggression with patient and carer involvement. Post-incident organisational support needs to be consolidated, and hands-on, timely support offered to help maintain emotionally well staff on CWPT.

Keywords: safer staff, survey of staff experiences, violence and aggression, mental health

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4497 Self-Care and Risk Behaviors in Primary Caregiver of Cancer Patients

Authors: Ivonne N. Pérez-Sánchez. María L. Rascón- Gasca, Angélica Riveros-Rosas, Rebeca Robles García

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Introduction: Primary caregivers of cancer patients have health problems related to their lack of time, stress, and fiscal strain. Their health problems could affect their patients’ health and also increase the expenses in public health. Aim: To describe self-care and risk behaviors in a sample of Mexican primary caregiver and the relation of these behaviors with emotional distress (caregiver burden, anxiety and depression symptoms), coping and sociodemographic variables. Method: Participated in this study 173 caregivers of a third level reference medical facility (age: M=49.4, SD=13.5) females 78%, males 22%, 57.5% were caregivers of patients with terminal cancer (CPTC), and 40.5% were caregivers of patients on oncology treatment (CPOT). Results: The 75.7% of caregivers reported to have had health problem in last six months as well as several symptoms which were related to emotional distress, these symptoms were more frequently between CPTC and female caregivers. A half (47.3%) of sample reported have had difficulties in caring their health; these difficulties were related to emotional distress and lower coping, more affected caregivers were who attend male patients and CPTC. The 76.8% of caregivers had health problems in last six months, but 26.5% of them waited to search medical care until they were very sick, and 11% didn't do it. Also, more than a half of sample (56.1%) admitted to have risk behaviors as drink alcohol, smoke or overeating for feeling well, these caregivers showed high emotional distress and lower coping. About caregivers healthy behaviors, 80% of them had a hobby; 27.2% do exercise usually and between 12% to 60% did medical checkups (glucose tests, blood pressure and cholesterol tests, eye exams and watched their weight), these caregivers had lower emotional distress and high coping, some variables related health behaviors were: care only one patient or a female patient and be a CPOT, social support, high educational level and experience as a caregiver in past. The half of caregivers were worrying to develop cancer in the future; this idea was 2.5 times more frequent in caregiver with problems to care their health. Conclusions: The results showed a big proportion of caregivers with medical problems. High emotional distress and low coping were related to physical symptoms, risk behaviors, and low self-care; poor self-care was frequently even in caregiver who have chronic illness.

Keywords: cancer, primary caregiver, risk behaviors, self-care

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4496 Shear Strength Characteristics of Sand Mixed with Particulate Rubber

Authors: Firas Daghistani, Hossam Abuel Naga

Abstract:

Waste tyres is a global problem that has a negative effect on the environment, where there are approximately one billion waste tyres discarded worldwide yearly. Waste tyres are discarded in stockpiles, where they provide harm to the environment in many ways. Finding applications to these materials can help in reducing this global problem. One of these applications is recycling these waste materials and using them in geotechnical engineering. Recycled waste tyre particulates can be mixed with sand to form a lightweight material with varying shear strength characteristics. Contradicting results were found in the literature on the inclusion of particulate rubber to sand, where some experiments found that the inclusion of particulate rubber can increase the shear strength of the mixture, while other experiments stated that the addition of particulate rubber decreases the shear strength of the mixture. This research further investigates the inclusion of particulate rubber to sand and whether it can increase or decrease the shear strength characteristics of the mixture. For the experiment, a series of direct shear tests were performed on a poorly graded sand with a mean particle size of 0.32 mm mixed with recycled poorly graded particulate rubber with a mean particle size of 0.51 mm. The shear tests were performedon four normal stresses 30, 55, 105, 200 kPa at a shear rate of 1 mm/minute. Different percentages ofparticulate rubber content were used in the mixture i.e., 10%, 20%, 30% and 50% of sand dry weight at three density states, namely loose, slight dense, and dense state. The size ratio of the mixture,which is the mean particle size of the particulate rubber divided by the mean particle size of the sand, was 1.59. The results identified multiple parameters that can influence the shear strength of the mixture. The parameters were: normal stress, particulate rubber content, mixture gradation, mixture size ratio, and the mixture’s density. The inclusion of particulate rubber tosand showed a decrease to the internal friction angle and an increase to the apparent cohesion. Overall, the inclusion of particulate rubber did not have a significant influenceon the shear strength of the mixture. For all the dense states at the low normal stresses 33 and 55 kPa, the inclusion of particulate rubber showed aslight increase in the shear strength where the peak was at 20% rubber content of the sand’s dry weight. On the other hand, at the high normal stresses 105, and 200 kPa, there was a slight decrease in the shear strength.

Keywords: shear strength, direct shear, sand-rubber mixture, waste material, granular material

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4495 The Reasons for Failure in Writing Essays: Teaching Writing as a Project-Based Enterprise

Authors: Ewa Toloczko

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Studies show that developing writing skills throughout years of formal foreign language instruction does not necessarily result in rewarding accomplishments among learners, nor an affirmative attitude they build towards written assignments. What causes this apparently wide-spread bias to writing might be a diminished relevance students attach to it, as opposed to the other productive skill — speaking, insufficient resources available for them to succeed, or the ways writing is approached by instructors, that is inapt teaching techniques that discourage rather that inflame learners’ engagement. The assumption underlying this presentation is that psychological and psycholinguistic factors constitute a key dimension of every writing process, and hence should be seriously considered in both material design and lesson planning. The author intends to demonstrate research in which writing tasks were conceived of as attitudinal rather than technical operations, and consequently turned into meaningful and socially-oriented incidents that students could relate to and have an active hand in. The instrument employed to achieve this purpose and to make writing even more interactive was the format of a project, a carefully devised series of tasks, which involved students as human beings, not only language learners. The projects rested upon the premise that the presence of peers and the teacher in class could be taken advantage of in a supportive rather than evaluative mode. In fact, the research showed that collaborative work and constant meaning negotiation reinforced not only bonds between learners, but also the language form and structure of the output. Accordingly, the role of the teacher shifted from the assessor to problem barometer, always ready to accept the slightest improvements in students’ language performance. This way, written verbal communication, which usually aims to merely manifest accuracy and coherent content for assessment, became part of the enterprise meant to emphasise its social aspect — the writer in real-life setting. The samples of projects show the spectrum of possibilities teachers have when exploring the domain of writing within school curriculum. The ideas are easy to modify and adjust to all proficiency levels and ages. Initially, however, they were meant to suit teenage and young adult learners of English as a foreign language in both European and Asian contexts.

Keywords: projects, psycholinguistic/ psychological dimension of writing, writing as a social enterprise, writing skills, written assignments

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4494 Application of Benford's Law in Analysis of Frankfurt Stock Exchange Index (DAX) Percentage Changes

Authors: Mario Zgela

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Application of Benford’s Law is very rarely covered in the field of stock market analysis, especially in percentage change of stock market indices. Deutscher Aktien IndeX (DAX) is very important stock market index of Frankfurt Deutsche Börse which serves as underlying basis for large number of financial instruments. It is calculated for selected 30 German blue chips stocks. In this paper, Benford's Law first digit test is applied on 10 year DAX daily percentage changes in order to check compliance. Deviations of 10 year DAX percentage changes set as well as distortions of certain subsets from Benford's Law distribution are detected. It is possible that deviations are the outcome of speculations; and psychological influence should not be eliminated.

Keywords: Benford's Law, DAX, index percentage changes, stock market

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4493 Influence of Natural Rubber on the Frictional and Mechanical Behavior of the Composite Brake Pad Materials

Authors: H. Yanar, G. Purcek, H. H. Ayar

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The ingredients of composite materials used for the production of composite brake pads play an important role in terms of safety braking performance of automobiles and trains. Therefore, the ingredients must be selected carefully and used in appropriate ratios in the matrix structure of the brake pad materials. In the present study, a non-asbestos organic composite brake pad materials containing binder resin, space fillers, solid lubricants, and friction modifier was developed, and its fillers content was optimized by adding natural rubber with different rate into the specified matrix structure in order to achieve the best combination of tribo-performance and mechanical properties. For this purpose, four compositions with different rubber content (2.5wt.%, 5.0wt.%, 7.5wt.% and 10wt.%) were prepared and then test samples with the diameter of 20 mm and length of 15 mm were produced to evaluate the friction and mechanical behaviors of the mixture. The friction and wear tests were performed using a pin-on-disc type test rig which was designed according to NF-F-11-292 French standard. All test samples were subjected to two different types of friction tests defined as periodic braking and continuous braking (also known as fade test). In this way, the coefficient of friction (CoF) of composite sample with different rubber content were determined as a function of number of braking cycle and temperature of the disc surface. The results demonstrated that addition of rubber into the matrix structure of the composite caused a significant change in the CoF. Average CoF of the composite samples increased linearly with increasing rubber content into the matrix. While the average CoF was 0.19 for the rubber-free composite, the composite sample containing 20wt.% rubber had the maximum CoF of about 0.24. Although the CoF of composite sample increased, the amount of specific wear rate decreased with increasing rubber content into the matrix. On the other hand, it was observed that the CoF decreased with increasing temperature generated in-between sample and disk depending on the increasing rubber content. While the CoF decreased to the minimum value of 0.15 at 400 °C for the rubber-free composite sample, the sample having the maximum rubber content of 10wt.% exhibited the lowest one of 0.09 at the same temperature. Addition of rubber into the matrix structure decreased the hardness and strength of the samples. It was concluded from the results that the composite matrix with 5 wt.% rubber had the best composition regarding the performance parameters such as required frictional and mechanical behavior. This composition has the average CoF of 0.21, specific wear rate of 0.024 cm³/MJ and hardness value of 63 HRX.

Keywords: brake pad composite, friction and wear, rubber, friction materials

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4492 The Boy Who Cried Wolf-North Korea Nuclear Test and Its Implication to the Regional Stability

Authors: Mark Wenyi Lai

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The very lethal weapon of nuclear warhead had threatened the survival of the world for half of the 20th century. When most of the countries have already denounced and stopped the development, one country is eager to produce and use them. Since 2006, Pyongyang has launched six times of nuclear tests. The most recent one in September 2017 signaled North Korea’s military capability to project the mass destruction through ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) over Seoul, Tokyo, Guam, Hawaii, Alaska or probably the West Coast of the United States with the explosive energy ten times of the atom bombing of Hiroshima in 1945. This research paper adopted time-series content analysis focusing on the related countries responses to North Korea’s tests in 2006, 2009, 2013, and 2016. The preliminary hypotheses are first, North Korea determined to protect the regime by having triad nuclear capability. Negotiations are mere means to this end. Second, South Korea is paralyzed by its ineffective domestic politics and unable to develop its independent strategy toward the North. Third, Japan was using the external threat to campaign for its rearmament plan and brought instability in foreign relations. Fourth, China found herself in the strange position of defending the loyal buffer state meanwhile witnessing the fourth and dangerous neighboring country gaining the card into nuclear club. Fifth, the United States had admitted that North Korea’s going nuclear is unstoppable. Therefore, to keep the regional stability in the East Asia, the US relied on the new balance of power formed by everyone versus Pyongyang. But, countries in East Asia actually have problems getting along with each other. Sixth, Russia distanced herself from the North Kore row but benefitted by advancing its strategic importance in the Far East. Tracing back the history of nuclear states, this research paper concluded that North Korea will head on becoming a more confident country. The regional stability will restore once related countries deal with the new fact and treat Pyongyang regime with a new strategy. The gradual opening and economic reform are on the way for the North Korea in the near future.

Keywords: nuclear test, North Korea, six party talk, US foreign policy

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4491 Evaluate the Changes in Stress Level Using Facial Thermal Imaging

Authors: Amin Derakhshan, Mohammad Mikaili, Mohammad Ali Khalilzadeh, Amin Mohammadian

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This paper proposes a stress recognition system from multi-modal bio-potential signals. For stress recognition, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and LDA are applied to design the stress classifiers and its characteristics are investigated. Using gathered data under psychological polygraph experiments, the classifiers are trained and tested. The pattern recognition method classifies stressful from non-stressful subjects based on labels which come from polygraph data. The successful classification rate is 96% for 12 subjects. It means that facial thermal imaging due to its non-contact advantage could be a remarkable alternative for psycho-physiological methods.

Keywords: stress, thermal imaging, face, SVM, polygraph

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4490 Sea of Light: A Game 'Based Approach for Evidence-Centered Assessment of Collaborative Problem Solving

Authors: Svenja Pieritz, Jakab Pilaszanovich

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Collaborative Problem Solving (CPS) is recognized as being one of the most important skills of the 21st century with having a potential impact on education, job selection, and collaborative systems design. Therefore, CPS has been adopted in several standardized tests, including the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) in 2015. A significant challenge of evaluating CPS is the underlying interplay of cognitive and social skills, which requires a more holistic assessment. However, the majority of the existing tests are using a questionnaire-based assessment, which oversimplifies this interplay and undermines ecological validity. Two major difficulties were identified: Firstly, the creation of a controllable, real-time environment allowing natural behaviors and communication between at least two people. Secondly, the development of an appropriate method to collect and synthesize both cognitive and social metrics of collaboration. This paper proposes a more holistic and automated approach to the assessment of CPS. To address these two difficulties, a multiplayer problem-solving game called Sea of Light was developed: An environment allowing students to deploy a variety of measurable collaborative strategies. This controlled environment enables researchers to monitor behavior through the analysis of game actions and chat. The according solution for the statistical model is a combined approach of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and Bayesian network analysis. Social exchanges via the in-game chat are analyzed through NLP and fed into the Bayesian network along with other game actions. This Bayesian network synthesizes evidence to track and update different subdimensions of CPS. Major findings focus on the correlations between the evidences collected through in- game actions, the participants’ chat features and the CPS self- evaluation metrics. These results give an indication of which game mechanics can best describe CPS evaluation. Overall, Sea of Light gives test administrators control over different problem-solving scenarios and difficulties while keeping the student engaged. It enables a more complete assessment based on complex, socio-cognitive information on actions and communication. This tool permits further investigations of the effects of group constellations and personality in collaborative problem-solving.

Keywords: bayesian network, collaborative problem solving, game-based assessment, natural language processing

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4489 Classification of Health Information Needs of Hypertensive Patients in the Online Health Community Based on Content Analysis

Authors: Aijing Luo, Zirui Xin, Yifeng Yuan

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Background: With the rapid development of the online health community, more and more patients or families are seeking health information on the Internet. Objective: This study aimed to discuss how to fully reveal the health information needs expressed by hypertensive patients in their questions in the online environment. Methods: This study randomly selected 1,000 text records from the question data of hypertensive patients from 2008 to 2018 collected from the website www.haodf.com and constructed a classification system through literature research and content analysis. This paper identified the background characteristics and questioning the intention of each hypertensive patient based on the patient’s question and used co-occurrence network analysis to explore the features of the health information needs of hypertensive patients. Results: The classification system for health information needs of patients with hypertension is composed of 9 parts: 355 kinds of drugs, 395 kinds of symptoms and signs, 545 kinds of tests and examinations , 526 kinds of demographic data, 80 kinds of diseases, 37 kinds of risk factors, 43 kinds of emotions, 6 kinds of lifestyles, 49 kinds of questions. The characteristics of the explored online health information needs of the hypertensive patients include: i)more than 49% of patients describe the features such as drugs, symptoms and signs, tests and examinations, demographic data, diseases, etc. ii) these groups are most concerned about treatment (77.8%), followed by diagnosis (32.3%); iii) 65.8% of hypertensive patients will ask doctors online several questions at the same time. 28.3% of the patients are very concerned about how to adjust the medication, and they will ask other treatment-related questions at the same time, including drug side effects, whether to take drugs, how to treat a disease, etc.; secondly, 17.6% of the patients will consult the doctors online about the causes of the clinical findings, including the relationship between the clinical findings and a disease, the treatment of a disease, medication, and examinations. Conclusion: In the online environment, the health information needs expressed by Chinese hypertensive patients to doctors are personalized; that is, patients with different background features express their questioning intentions to doctors. The classification system constructed in this study can guide health information service providers in the construction of online health resources, to help solve the problem of information asymmetry in communication between doctors and patients.

Keywords: online health community, health information needs, hypertensive patients, doctor-patient communication

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4488 On Consolidated Predictive Model of the Natural History of Breast Cancer Considering Primary Tumor and Secondary Distant Metastases Growth in Patients with Lymph Nodes Metastases

Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This paper is devoted to mathematical modelling of the progression and stages of breast cancer. We propose Consolidated mathematical growth model of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases (CoM-III) as a new research tool. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoM-III which reflects relations between primary tumor and secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoM-III scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. Firstly, the CoM-III includes exponential tumor growth model as a system of determinate nonlinear and linear equations. Secondly, mathematical model corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. Thus, the CoM-III model and predictive software: a) detect different growth periods of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth in patients with lymph nodes metastases; b) make forecast of the period of the distant metastases appearance in patients with lymph nodes metastases; c) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; d) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoM-III: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of secondary distant metastases. The CoM-III enables, for the first time, to predict the whole natural history of primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoM-III describes correctly primary tumor and secondary distant metastases growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N1-3M0) stages in patients with lymph nodes metastases (N1-3); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, primary tumor, secondary metastases, survival

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4487 MAOD Is Estimated by Sum of Contributions

Authors: David W. Hill, Linda W. Glass, Jakob L. Vingren

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Maximal accumulated oxygen deficit (MAOD), the gold standard measure of anaerobic capacity, is the difference between the oxygen cost of exhaustive severe intensity exercise and the accumulated oxygen consumption (O2; mL·kg–1). In theory, MAOD can be estimated as the sum of independent estimates of the phosphocreatine and glycolysis contributions, which we refer to as PCr+glycolysis. Purpose: The purpose was to test the hypothesis that PCr+glycolysis provides a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running. Methods: The participants were 27 women (mean ± SD, age 22 ±1 y, height 165 ± 7 cm, weight 63.4 ± 9.7 kg) and 25 men (age 22 ± 1 y, height 179 ± 6 cm, weight 80.8 ± 14.8 kg). They performed two exhaustive cycling and running tests, at speeds and work rates that were tolerable for ~5 min. The rate of oxygen consumption (VO2; mL·kg–1·min–1) was measured in warmups, in the tests, and during 7 min of recovery. Fingerprick blood samples obtained after exercise were analysed to determine peak blood lactate concentration (PeakLac). The VO2 response in exercise was fitted to a model, with a fast ‘primary’ phase followed by a delayed ‘slow’ component, from which was calculated the accumulated O2 and the excess O2 attributable to the slow component. The VO2 response in recovery was fitted to a model with a fast phase and slow component, sharing a common time delay. Oxygen demand (in mL·kg–1·min–1) was determined by extrapolation from steady-state VO2 in warmups; the total oxygen cost (in mL·kg–1) was determined by multiplying this demand by time to exhaustion and adding the excess O2; then, MAOD was calculated as total oxygen cost minus accumulated O2. The phosphocreatine contribution (area under the fast phase of the post-exercise VO2) and the glycolytic contribution (converted from PeakLac) were summed to give PCr+glycolysis. There was not an interaction effect involving sex, so values for anaerobic capacity were examined using a two-way ANOVA, with repeated measures across method (PCr+glycolysis vs MAOD) and mode (cycling vs running). Results: There was a significant effect only for exercise mode. There was no difference between MAOD and PCr+glycolysis: values were 59 ± 6 mL·kg–1 and 61 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in cycling and 78 ± 7 mL·kg–1 and 75 ± 8 mL·kg–1 in running. Discussion: PCr+glycolysis is a valid measure of anaerobic capacity in cycling and running, and it is as valid for women as for men.

Keywords: alactic, anaerobic, cycling, ergometer, glycolysis, lactic, lactate, oxygen deficit, phosphocreatine, running, treadmill

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