Search results for: uncertainty and decision making

Authors: Ashok Kalagura

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This paper presents a data-mining model for fault-zone identification of flexible AC transmission systems (FACTS)-based transmission line including a thyristor-controlled series compensator (TCSC) and unified power-flow controller (UPFC), using ensemble decision trees. Given the randomness in the ensemble of decision trees stacked inside the random forests model, it provides an effective decision on the fault-zone identification. Half-cycle post-fault current and voltage samples from the fault inception are used as an input vector against target output ‘1’ for the fault after TCSC/UPFC and ‘1’ for the fault before TCSC/UPFC for fault-zone identification. The algorithm is tested on simulated fault data with wide variations in operating parameters of the power system network, including noisy environment providing a reliability measure of 99% with faster response time (3/4th cycle from fault inception). The results of the presented approach using the RF model indicate the reliable identification of the fault zone in FACTS-based transmission lines.

Keywords: distance relaying, fault-zone identification, random forests, RFs, support vector machine, SVM, thyristor-controlled series compensator, TCSC, unified power-flow controller, UPFC

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Authors: Nejoud Alostad, Anup Bora, Prashant Dhote

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Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) has been producing from its major reservoirs that are well defined and highly productive and of superior reservoir quality. These reservoirs are maturing and priority is shifting towards difficult reservoir to meet future production requirements. This paper discusses the results of the detailed integrated study for one of the satellite complex field discovered in the early 1960s. Following acquisition of new 3D seismic data in 1998 and re-processing work in the year 2006, an integrated G&G study was undertaken to review Lower Cretaceous prospectivity of this reservoir. Nine wells have been drilled in the area, till date with only three wells showing hydrocarbons in two formations. The average oil density is around 300API (American Petroleum Institute), and average porosity and water saturation of the reservoir is about 23% and 26%, respectively. The area is dissected by a number of NW-SE trending faults. Structurally, the area consists of horsts and grabens bounded by these faults and hence compartmentalized. The Wara/Burgan formation consists of discrete, dirty sands with clean channel sand complexes. There is a dramatic change in Upper Wara distributary channel facies, and reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan section varies with change of facies over the area. So predicting reservoir facies and its quality out of sparse well data is a major challenge for delineating the prospective area. To characterize the reservoir of Wara/Burgan formation, an integrated workflow involving seismic, well, petro-physical, reservoir and production engineering data has been used. Porosity and water saturation models are prepared and analyzed to predict reservoir quality of Wara and Burgan 3rd sand upper reservoirs. Subsequently, boundary conditions are defined for reservoir and non-reservoir facies by integrating facies, porosity and water saturation. Based on the detailed analyses of volumetric parameters, potential volumes of stock-tank oil initially in place (STOIIP) and gas initially in place (GIIP) were documented after running several probablistic sensitivity analysis using Montecalro simulation method. Sensitivity analysis on probabilistic models of reservoir horizons, petro-physical properties, and oil-water contacts and their effect on reserve clearly shows some alteration in the reservoir geometry. All these parameters have significant effect on the oil in place. This study has helped to identify uncertainty and risks of this prospect particularly and company is planning to develop this area with drilling of new wells.

Keywords: original oil-in-place, sensitivity, uncertainty, sandstone, reservoir modeling, Monte-Carlo simulation

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Authors: Mahdieh Dehghan Nayeri, Hani Arbabi, Seid Pooyan Ghafoori

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Civic crowdfunding- crowdfunding public projects- which goes beyond people management- as a significant part of public projects stakeholders- and requires the active engagement of the public in both the financing and decision-making processes of public projects, is expanding. However, in most countries of the world, no specific legal framework has been approved for governing and managing the implementation of projects through this method. Through a systematic literature review, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA), this article has studied and discussed the legal issues of civic crowdfunded projects in the countries leading the use of this method, in four themes; one related to the legal environment and three related to three leading players in civic crowdfunded projects include the investor, the platform, and the investee. The review showed that despite the increasing attention to people's engagement in public projects -financial and non-financial- not much scientific research has been done to formulate fully structured legal structures. Finally, neglected areas in research have been discussed as a guide for future research.

Keywords: civic crowdfunding, equity crowdfunding, public projects, legal issues, crowdsourcing

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Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan

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Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. But often such interventions are made in the absence of sound evidence on what outcomes may result. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode which aims to cut traffic congestion. The estimation of the impacts of the cycle superhighways on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-innervation and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network, and the result would help effective decision making to improve network performance.

Keywords: average treatment effect, confounder, difference-in-difference, intelligent transportation system, potential outcome

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Authors: Fayez Hanna, Viet Tran

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A 20 years old lady- primigravida 6 weeks pregnant with unremarkable past history, presented to the emergency department at the Royal Hobart Hospital, Tasmania, Australia, with hyperemesis gravidarum associated with, dehydration and complicated with hematemesis and chest pain resistant. Accordingly, we conducted laboratory investigations which revealed: FBC: WBC 23.9, unremarkable U&E, LFT, lipase and her VBG showed a pH 7.4, pCo2 36.7, cK+ 3.2, cNa+ 142. The decision was made to do a chest X-ray (CXR) after explaining the risks/benefit of performing radiographic investigations during pregnancy and considering the patient's plan for the termination of the pregnancy as she was not ready for motherhood for shared decision-making and consent to look for pneumoperitoneum to suggest perforated viscus that might cause the hematemesis. However, the CXR showed pneumomediastinum but no evidence of pneumoperitoneum or pneumothorax. Consequently, a decision was made to proceed with CT oesophagography with imaging pre and post oral contrast administration to identify a potential oesophageal tear since it could not be excluded using a plain film of the CXR. The CT oesophagography could not find a leak for the administered oral contrast and thus, no oesophageal tear could be confirmed but could not exclude the Mallory-Weiss tear (lower oesophageal tear). Further, the CT oesophagography showed an extensive pneumomediastinum that could not be confirmed to be pulmonary in origin noting the presence of bilateral pulmonary interstitial emphysema and pneumothorax in the apex of the right lung that was small. The patient was admitted to the Emergency Department Inpatient Unit for monitoring, supportive therapy, and symptomatic management. Her hyperemesis was well controlled with ondansetron 8mg IV, metoclopramide 10mg IV, doxylamine 25mg PO, pyridoxine 25mg PO, esomeprazole 40mg IV and oxycodone 5mg PO was given for pain control and 2 litter of IV fluid. The patient was stabilized after 24 hours and discharged home on ondansetron 8mg every 8 hours whereas the patient had a plan for medical termination of pregnancy. Three weeks later, the patient represented with nausea and vomiting complicated by a frank hematemesis. Her observation chart showed HR 117- other vital signs were normal. Pathology showed WBC 14.3 with normal U&E and Hb. The patient was managed in the Emergency Department with the same previous regimen and was discharged home on same previous regimes. Five days later, she presented again with nausea, vomiting and hematemesis and was admitted under obstetrics and gynaecology for stabilization then discharged home with a plan for surgical termination of pregnancy after 3-days rather than the previously planned medical termination of pregnancy to avoid extension of potential oesophageal tear. The surgical termination and follow up period were uneventful. The case is considered rare as pneumomediastinum is a very rare complication of hyperemesis gravidarum where vomiting-induced barotrauma leads to a ruptured oesophagus and air leak into the mediastinum. However no rupture oesophagus in our case. Although the combination of pneumothorax and pneumomediastinum without oesophageal tear was reported only 8 times in the literature, but none of them was due to hyperemesis gravidarum.

Keywords: Pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, hyperemesis gravidarum, pneumopericardium

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Authors: Kamel Malik Bensafta, Gervasio Bensafta

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between oil prices and socks markets. The empirical analysis in this paper is conducted within the context of Multivariate GARCH models, using a transform version of the so-called BEKK parameterization. We show that mean and uncertainty of US market are transmitted to oil market and European market. We also identify an important transmission from WTI prices to Brent Prices.

Keywords: oil volatility, stock markets, MGARCH, transmission, structural break

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Authors: Kalandi Charan Pradhan

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In this study, we investigate does weather variation determine temporary labour migration using 210 sample households from six Semi-Arid Tropic (SAT) villages for the period of 2005-2014 in India. The study has made an attempt to examine how households use temporary labour migration as a coping mechanism to minimise the risk rather than maximize the utility of the households. The study employs panel Logit regression model to predict the probability of household having at least one temporary labour migrant. As per as econometrics result, it is found that along with demographic and socioeconomic factors; weather variation plays an important role to determine the decision of migration at household level. In order to capture the weather variation, the study uses mean crop yield deviation over the study periods. Based on the random effect logit regression result, the study found that there is a concave relationship between weather variation and decision of temporary labour migration. This argument supports the theory of New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM), which highlights the decision of labour migration not only maximise the households’ utility but it helps to minimise the risks.

Keywords: temporary migration, socioeconomic factors, weather variation, crop yield, logit estimation

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Authors: Blessing Mavhuru, Nthaduleni Nethengwe, Hector Chikoore, Onyango Beneah Daniel Odhiambo

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The main objective of this study was to classify land use/cover and how it has changed in Nzhelele Valley Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study aimed to identify and analyse the types of land use/cover in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 with a view to assess the impact on soil erosion over time. Using GIS, the changes within land use/cover were assessed through the classification of satellite images. The study area was classified into four major land cover/use classes, which are vegetation, gravel road, built up land and agricultural fields. Over the period 2005-2015 the resultant land use/cover demonstrated (i) a significant increase (12%) for vegetation cover, (ii) a significant decrease in agriculture (16%) land use/cover, (iii) increase in built-up land (1%), as well as (iv) an increase in gravel roads (3%). This study envisages assisting policy makers in decision making on land use management for Nzhelele Valley.

Keywords: land use, land cover, change, soil erosion

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Authors: Ganatsios Vassilios, Terpou Antonia, Maria Kanellaki, Bekatorou Argyro, Athanasios Koutinas

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In this study, a new fermentation technology is proposed with potential application in home wine-making. Delignified cellulosic material was used to preserve Tubular Cellulose (TC), an effective fermentation support material in high osmotic pressure, low temperature, and alcohol concentration. The psychrotolerant yeast strain Saccharomyces cerevisiae AXAZ-1 was immobilized on TC to preserve a novel home wine making biocatalyst (HWB) and the entrapment was examined by SEM. Various concentrations of HWB was added in high-density grape must and the mixture was dried immediately. The dried mixture was stored for various time intervals and its fermentation examined after addition of potable water. The percentage of added water was also examined to succeed high alcohol and residual sugar concentration. The effect of low temperature (1-10 oC) on fermentation kinetics was studied revealing the ability of HBW on low-temperature sweet wine making. Sweet wines SPME GC-MS analysis revealed the promotion effect of TC on volatile by-products formation in comparison with free cells. Kinetics results and aromatic profile of final product encouraged the efforts of high-quality sweet wine making in domestic refrigerator and potential marketable opportunities are also assessed and discussed.

Keywords: tubular cellulose, sweet wine, Saccharomyces cerevisiae AXAZ-1, residual sugar concentration

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Authors: Barbara Roosen, Oswald Devisch

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Spatial projects are often contested. Despite participatory trajectories in official spatial development processes, citizens engage often by their power to say no. Participatory mapping helps to produce more legible and democratic ways of decision-making. It has proven its value in producing a multitude of knowledges and views, for individuals and community groups and local stakeholders to imagine desired and undesired futures and to give them the rhetorical power to present their views throughout the development process. From this perspective, mapping works as a social process in which individuals and groups share their knowledge, learn from each other and negotiate their relationship with each other as well as with space and power. In this way, these processes eventually aim to activate communities to intervene in cooperation in real problems. However, these are fragile and bumpy processes, sometimes leading to (local) conflict and intractable situations. Heterogeneous subjectivities and knowledge that become visible during the mapping process and which are contested by members of the community, is often the first trigger. This paper discusses a participatory mapping project conducted in a residential subdivision in Flanders to provide a deeper understanding of how or under which conditions the mapping process could moderate discordant situations amongst inhabitants, local organisations and local authorities, towards a more constructive outcome. In our opinion, this implies a thorough documentation and presentation of the different steps of the mapping process to design and moderate an open and transparent dialogue. The mapping project ‘Make the Neighbourhood’, is set up in the aftermath of a socio-spatial design intervention in the neighbourhood that led to polarization within the community. To start negotiation between the diverse claims that came to the fore, we co-create a desired future map of the neighbourhood together with local organisations and inhabitants as a way to engage them in the development of a new spatial development plan for the area. This mapping initiative set up a new ‘common’ goal or concern, as a first step to bridge the gap that we experienced between different sociocultural groups, bottom-up and top-down initiatives and between professionals and non-professionals. An atlas of elements (materials), an atlas of actors with different roles and an atlas of ways of cooperation and organisation form the work and building material of the future neighbourhood map, assembled in two co-creation sessions. Firstly, we will consider how the mapping procedures articulate the plurality of claims and agendas. Secondly, we will elaborate upon how social relations and spatialities are negotiated and reproduced during the different steps of the map making. Thirdly, we will reflect on the role of the rules, format, and structure of the mapping process in moderating negotiations between much divided claims. To conclude, we will discuss the challenges of visualizing the different steps of mapping process as a strategy to moderate tense negotiations in a more constructive direction in the context of spatial development processes.

Keywords: conflict, documentation, participatory mapping, residential subdivision

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Authors: Basheer Ahmad Al-Alwan, Ali Ratib Al-Awamreh, Badar Saif Alhatmi

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The success of organizations in today's rapidly changing business landscape greatly hinges on the effectiveness of management creativity. This research aimed to uncover the elements influencing the effectiveness of management creativity by employing the Theory of Planned Behavior. The study's findings indicate that two significant predictors of management creativity effectiveness are one's attitude towards it and the subjective norms within the organization. Such results are rather important for the organizations and their leaders who would want to increase management creativity. The attitudes of subordinates towards management creativity should be positive if managers wish to cultivate management creativity among their employees, and the organizational culture must also be one that enhances and supports creative thinking. They should also make available all the requisite resources and support required for the implementation of their creative ideas and let employees participate in the decision-making processes in order to increase their sense of control over their creative activities. This research contributes to the literature on managerial creativity by presenting evidence about the effectiveness of managerial creativity and the strategies aimed at increasing the level of creativity in organizations through empirical insights.

Keywords: management creativity, attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Elias Ogutu Azariah Tembe, Hussain Abdullah Habib Al-Salamin

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There is decagram of strategic decisions of operations and production/service management (POSM) within operational research (OR) which must collate, namely: design, inventory, quality, location, process and capacity, layout, scheduling, maintain ace, and supply chain. This paper presents an architectural configuration conceptual framework of a decagram of sets decisions in a form of mathematical complete graph and abelian graph. Mathematically, a complete graph is undirected (UDG), and directed (DG) a relationship where every pair of vertices are connected, collated, confluent, and holomorphic. There has not been any study conducted which, however, prioritizes the holomorphic sets which of POMS within OR field of study. The study utilizes OR structured technique known as The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis for organizing, sorting and prioritizing (ranking) the sets within the decagram of POMS according to their attribution (propensity), and provides an analysis how the prioritization has real-world application within the 21st century.

Keywords: holomorphic, decagram, decagon, confluent, complete graph, AHP analysis, SCM, HRM, OR, OM, abelian graph

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Authors: Juan C. Pérez-Mesa, Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, Jerónimo De Burgos-Jiménez, José F. Bienvenido-Bárcena, José F. Jiménez-Guerrero

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Environmental cost and transport congestion on roads resulting from product distribution in Europe have to lead to the creation of various programs and studies seeking to reduce these negative impacts. In this regard, apart from other institutions, the European Commission (EC) has designed plans in recent years promoting a more sustainable transportation model in an attempt to ultimately shift traffic from the road to the sea by using intermodality to achieve a model rebalancing. This issue proves especially relevant in supply chains from peripheral areas of the continent, where the supply of certain agrifood products is high. In such cases, the most difficult challenge is managing perishable goods. This study focuses on new approaches that strengthen the modal shift, as well as the reduction of externalities. This problem is analyzed by attempting to promote intermodal system (truck and short sea shipping) for transport, taking as point of reference highly perishable products (vegetables) exported from southeast Spain, which is the leading supplier to Europe. Methodologically, this paper seeks to contribute to the literature by proposing a different and complementary approach to establish a comparison between intermodal and the “only road” alternative. For this purpose, the multicriteria decision is utilized in a p-median model (P-M) adapted to the transport of perishables and to a means of shipping selection problem, which must consider different variables: transit cost, including externalities, time, and frequency (including agile response time). This scheme avoids bias in decision-making processes. By observing the results, it can be seen that the influence of the externalities as drivers of the modal shift is reduced when transit time is introduced as a decision variable. These findings confirm that the general strategies, those of the EC, based on environmental benefits lose their capacity for implementation when they are applied to complex circumstances. In general, the different estimations reveal that, in the case of perishables, intermodality would be a secondary and viable option only for very specific destinations (for example, Hamburg and nearby locations, the area of influence of London, Paris, and the Netherlands). Based on this framework, the general outlook on this subject should be modified. Perhaps the government should promote specific business strategies based on new trends in the supply chain, not only on the reduction of externalities, and find new approaches that strengthen the modal shift. A possible option is to redefine ports, conceptualizing them as digitalized redistribution and coordination centers and not only as areas of cargo exchange.

Keywords: environmental externalities, intermodal transport, perishable food, transit time

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Authors: Lai Junzhe, Wang Lihao, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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In recent years, due to today's global technological advances, big data and artificial intelligence technologies have been widely used in various industries and fields, playing an important role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. Among them, artificial intelligence has derived another branch in its own continuous progress and the continuous development of computer personnel, namely distributed artificial intelligence computing systems. Distributed AI is a method for solving complex learning, decision-making, and planning problems, characterized by the ability to take advantage of large-scale computation and the spatial distribution of resources, and accordingly, it can handle problems with large data sets. Nowadays, distributed AI is widely used in military, medical, and human daily life and brings great convenience and efficient operation to life. In this paper, we will discuss three areas of distributed AI computing systems in vision processing, blockchain, and smart home to introduce the performance of distributed systems and the role of AI in distributed systems.

Keywords: distributed system, artificial intelligence, blockchain, IoT, visual information processing, smart home

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Authors: Qamar Ul Haq, Talat Hussain, Mufti Fahad Ahmed Qureshi

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From the Islamic perspective, managing human resource meets various challenges, especially in the modern organizations. The adoption of Western practices in various aspects of management have caused gaps in justice, trustworthy, responsibility and other values of workers in Muslim countries. Thus, the interference of Islamic principles in human resource management (HRM) can be considered as a great solution for treating employees fairly and justly. This research aims to examine the level of Islamic practices in HRM, in which includes recruitment and selection, training and development, career development, performance management and rewards. The paper will analyze the relationships between HRM practices and organizational justice which focus on three elements, which are distributive justice, procedure justice and interactional justice. The data will be collected from selected Malaysian Government-Linked Company (GLC). Convenience sampling will be used to select the respondents for completing questionnaires. This conceptual paper essentially provides organizations with effective ways of understanding and implementing HRM by using Islamic principles. It also can be used as guidance for decision-making and day-today HR activities and will help organization to face uncertainties in the business world as well.

Keywords: human resource management, organizational justice, Islam, Islamic banking

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Authors: Kenneth Fon Mbah, Arash Habibi Lashkari, Ali A. Ghorbani

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Phishing e-mails are a security issue that not only annoys online users, but has also resulted in significant financial losses for businesses. Phishing advertisements and pornographic e-mails are difficult to detect as attackers have been becoming increasingly intelligent and professional. Attackers track users and adjust their attacks based on users’ attractions and hot topics that can be extracted from community news and journals. This research focuses on deceptive Phishing attacks and their variants such as attacks through advertisements and pornographic e-mails. We propose a framework called Phishing Alerting System (PHAS) to accurately classify e-mails as Phishing, advertisements or as pornographic. PHAS has the ability to detect and alert users for all types of deceptive e-mails to help users in decision making. A well-known email dataset has been used for these experiments and based on previously extracted features, 93.11% detection accuracy is obtainable by using J48 and KNN machine learning techniques. Our proposed framework achieved approximately the same accuracy as the benchmark while using this dataset.

Keywords: phishing e-mail, phishing detection, anti phishing, alarm system, machine learning

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Authors: Virginia Dickson-Swift, Amanda Kenny, Jane Farmer, Sarah Larkins, Karen Carlisle, Helen Hickson

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In this presentation, we will focus on the methods of Remote Services Futures (RSF), an evidence-based method of community participation that was developed in Scotland. Using oral health as the focus, we will discuss the ways that RSF can be used to achieve sustainable engagement with stakeholders from various parts of the community. We will describe our findings of using RSF methods to engage with rural communities, including the steps involved and what happened when we asked people about the oral health services that they thought were needed in their community. We found that most community members started by thinking that a public dental clinic was required in every community, which is not a sustainable health service delivery option. Through a series of facilitated workshops, communities were able to discuss and prioritise their needs and develop a costed plan for their community which will ensure sustainable service delivery into the future. Our study highlights the complexities of decision making in rural communities. It is important to ensure that when communities participate in health care planning that the outcomes are practical, feasible and sustainable.

Keywords: community participation, sustainable health planning, Remote Services Futures, rural communities

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Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

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Authors: Ruth Donkoh, Wing On Lee, Solomon A. Boateng, Portia Oware Twerefoo, Josephine Donkor

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In this paper we defend the value of theories and approaches to educational policy and planning in enhancing the educational developments in Ghana. This mission is achieved by enumerating the recent educational developments in Ghana and juxtaposing it with some educational theories, approaches to policy making, and policy planning to see if the educational developments conform with the theory principles as well as policy making and planning processes. Data collection for the research was made through textual analysis of policy documents as well as review of relevant literatures. The findings reveled that educational developments in Ghana are unable to attain its objectives due to the policies not conforming with the policy formation and planning principles. In addition, was that education planning in Ghana does not follow the policy-administration dichotomy theory principles and likewise the distribution of educational needs goes contrary to the equity theory. We recommend that educational policies in Ghana should be in conformity with the principles of theories as well as the approaches to educational policy making and planning to help meet the needs of learners, attain educational quality, and to help in the accomplishment of educational development objectives.

Keywords: Ghana education, equity theories, politics- administration dichotomy theory, educational policies, educational planning

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Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman

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Consumers' understanding of the products depends on what levels of information the advertisement contains. Consumers' attitudes vary widely depending on factors such as their level of environmental awareness, their perception of the company's motives, and the perceived effectiveness of the advertising campaign. Considering the growing eco-consciousness among consumers and their concern for the environment, strategies for green advertising have become equally significant for companies to attract new consumers. It is important to understand consumers' habits of purchasing, knowledge, and attitudes regarding eco-friendly products depending on promotion because of the limitless options of the products in the market. Additionally, encouraging consumers to buy sustainable products requires a platform that can message the world that being a stakeholder in sustainability is possible if consumers show eco-friendly behavior on a larger scale. Social media platforms provide an excellent atmosphere to promote companies' sustainable efforts to be connected engagingly with their potential consumers. The unique strategies of green advertising use techniques to carry information and rewards for the consumers. This study aims to understand the consumer behavior and effectiveness of green advertising by experimenting in collaboration with three companies in promoting their eco-friendly products using green designs on the products. The experiment uses three sustainable personalized offerings, Nike shoes, H&M t-shirts, and Patagonia school bags. The experiment uses a pretest and posttest design. 300 randomly selected participants take part in this experiment and survey through Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram. Nike, H&M, and Patagonia share the post of the experiment on their social media homepages with a video advertisement for the three products. The consumers participate in a pre-experiment online survey before making a purchase decision to assess their attitudes and behavior toward eco-friendly products. The audio-only feature explains the product's information, like their use of recycled materials, their manufacturing methods, sustainable packaging, and their impact on the environment during the purchase while the consumer watches the product video. After making a purchase, consumers take a post-experiment survey to know their perception and behavior toward eco-friendly products. For the data analysis, descriptive statistical tools mean, standard deviation, and frequencies measure the pre- and post-experiment survey data. The inferential statistical tool paired sample t-test measures the difference in consumers' behavior and attitudes between pre-purchase and post-experiment survey results. This experiment provides consumers ample time to consider many aspects rather than impulses. This research provides valuable insights into how companies can adopt sustainable and eco-friendly products. The result set a target for the companies to achieve a sustainable production goal that ultimately supports companies' profit-making and promotes consumers' well-being. This empowers consumers to make informed choices about the products they purchase and support their companies of interest.

Keywords: green-advertising, sustainability, consumer-behavior, social media

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Authors: Tsz Ching Jasmine Lam

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Linguistic landscape (LL) can serve as both top-down and bottom-up approaches to understanding language planning policy in various dimensions. It can reflect the language identities, motives and contestations perceived by stakeholders of different decision-making levels. Prior studies adopted the bottom-up approach to investigate the language practice and ideologies reflected by the design and linguistic features observed in the linguistic landscapes in ethnically and linguistically diverse areas, like Medan in Russia and Seoul in Korea. As Hong Kong is also a trilingual city with an inclusive combination of nationalities, this paper is intended to take it as a case study to explore the de facto language ideologies reflected by LL at the micro-level. We would look into the catering industry from a holistic perspective by reviewing the food menus of 66 restaurants located in diversified districts and serving different types of cuisines. This bottom-up LL research reveals that business owners and the public share the language ideologies of perceiving English as a prestigious language, multilingualism and traditional Chinese as a standard character.

Keywords: bottom-up, language ideologies, language planning policy, language policy, language identities, linguistic landscape

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Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

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Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

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Authors: Danilo López, Johana Hernández, Edwin Rivas

Abstract:

The use of the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Networks (MLPNN) technique is presented to estimate the future state of use of a licensed channel by primary users (PUs); this will be useful at the spectral decision stage in cognitive radio networks (CRN) to determine approximately in which time instants of future may secondary users (SUs) opportunistically use the spectral bandwidth to send data through the primary wireless network. To validate the results, sequences of occupancy data of channel were generated by simulation. The results show that the prediction percentage is greater than 60% in some of the tests carried out.

Keywords: cognitive radio, neural network, prediction, primary user

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Authors: Harman Jaggi, David Steinsaltz, Shripad Tuljapurkar

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Understanding the effect of fluctuations on populations is crucial in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, climate change, and biological invasions, among others. Migration in response to environmental disturbances enables populations to escape unfavorable conditions, benefit from new environments and thereby ride out fluctuations in variable environments. Would populations disperse if there is no uncertainty? Karlin showed in 1982 that when sub-populations experience distinct but fixed growth rates at different sites, greater mixing of populations will lower the overall growth rate relative to the most favorable site. Here we ask if and when environmental variability favors migration over no-migration. Specifically, in random environments, would a small amount of migration increase the overall long-run growth rate relative to the zero migration case? We use analysis and simulations to show how long-run growth rate changes with migration rate. Our results show that when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites, migration may allow populations to benefit from variability. When there is one best site with highest growth rate, the effect of migration on long-run growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth between sites, scaled by the variance of the difference. When variance is large, there is a substantial probability of an inferior site experiencing higher growth rate than its average. Thus, a high variance can compensate for a difference in average growth rates between sites. Positive correlations in growth rates across sites favor less migration. With multiple sites and large fluctuations, the length of shortest cycle (excursion) from the best site (on average) matters, and we explore the interplay between excursion length, average differences between sites and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for conservation biology: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space may be key to determining the importance of migration.

Keywords: migration, variable-environments, random, dispersal, fluctuations, habitat-quality

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Authors: J. Niyitegeka, G. Nshimirimana, A. Silverstein, J. Odhiambo, Y. Lin, T. Nkurunziza, R. Riviello, S. Rulisa, P. Banguti, H. Magge, M. Macharia, J. P. Dushime, R. Habimana, B. Hedt-Gauthier

Abstract:

In low-resource settings, women needing an emergency cesarean section experiences various delays in both reaching and receiving care that is often linked to poor neonatal outcomes. In this study, we quantified different measures of delays and assessed the association between these delays and neonatal outcomes at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. This retrospective study included 441 neonates and their mothers who underwent emergency cesarean sections in 2015 at Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals. Four possible delays were measured: Time from start of labor to district hospital admission, travel time from a health center to the district hospital, time from admission to surgical incision, and time from the decision for the emergency cesarean section to surgical incision. Neonatal outcomes were categorized as unfavorable (APGAR < 7 or death) and favorable (APGAR ≥ 7). We assessed the relationship between each type of delay and neonatal outcomes using multivariate logistic regression. In our study, 38.7% (108 out of 279) of neonates’ mothers labored for 12 to 24 hours before hospital admission and 44.7% (159 of 356) of mothers were transferred from health centers that required 30 to 60 minutes of travel time to reach the district hospital. 48.1% (178 of 370) of caesarean sections started within five hours after admission and 85.2% (288 of 338) started more than thirty minutes after the decision for the emergency cesarean section was made. Neonatal outcomes were significantly worse among mothers with more than 90 minutes of travel time from the health center to the district hospital compared to health centers attached to the hospital (OR = 5.12, p = 0.02). Neonatal outcomes were also significantly different depending on decision to incision intervals; neonates with cesarean deliveries starting more than thirty minutes after decision had better outcomes than those started immediately (OR = 0.32, p = 0.04). Interventions that decrease barriers to access to maternal health care services can improve neonatal outcome after emergency cesarean section. Triaging could explain the inverse relationship between time from decision to incision and neonatal outcome; this must be studied more in the future.

Keywords: Africa, emergency obstetric care, rural health delivery, maternal and child health

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Authors: Peris Wanjiku

Abstract:

The objective of this paper is to describe the development and implications of a national nursing workforce analytical system in Kenya. Findings: Creating a national electronic nursing workforce analytical system provides more reliable information on nurses ‘national demographics, migration patterns, and workforce capacity and efficiency. Data analysis is most useful for human resources for health (HRH) planning when workforce capacity data can be linked to worksite staffing requirements. As a result of establishing this database, the Kenya Ministry of Health has improved its capability to assess its nursing workforce and document important workforce trends, such as out-migration. Current data identify the United States as the leading recipient country of Kenyan nurses. The overwhelming majority of Kenyan nurses who decide to out-migrate are amongst Kenya’s most qualified. Conclusions: The Kenya nursing database is a first step toward facilitating evidence-based decision-making in HRH. This database is unique to developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing an electronic workforce database requires long-term investment and sustained support by national and global stakeholders.

Keywords: analytical, information, health, migration

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Authors: Sunitha Thappa

Abstract:

Business environment is a set of complex interdependent dimensions that corporates have to always be vigil in identifying the influential waves. Over the year business environment has evolved into a basket of uncertainties. Every organization strives to counter this dynamic nature of business environment by recurrently evaluating the primary and support activities of its value chain. This has led to companies redesigning their business models, reinvent business processes and operating procedure on unremitting basis. A few specific issues that are placed before the present day managers are breaking down the functional interpretation of any challenge that organizations confronts, reduction in organizational hierarchy and tackling the components of the value chain to retain their competitive advantage. It is how effectively managers detect the changes and swiftly reorient themselves to these changes that define their success or failure. Given the complexity of decision making in this dynamic environment, two important question placed before the B-schools of today. Firstly, are they grooming and nurturing managerial talent proficient enough to thrive in this multifaceted business environment? Secondly, are the management graduates walking through their portals, able to view challenges from a cross-functional perspective with emphasis to customer and process rather than hierarchy and functions. This paper focuses on the need for a process oriented approach to management education.

Keywords: management education, pedagogy, functional, process

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Authors: Abdullah Ali H. Ahmadini, Firoz Ahmad, Intekhab Alam

Abstract:

Geometric programming problem (GPP) is a well-known non-linear optimization problem having a wide range of applications in many engineering problems. The structure of GPP is quite dynamic and easily fit to the various decision-making processes. The aim of this paper is to highlight the bounded solution method for GPP with special reference to variation among right-hand side parameters. Thus this paper is taken the advantage of two-level mathematical programming problems and determines the solution of the objective function in a specified interval called lower and upper bounds. The beauty of the proposed bounded solution method is that it does not require sensitivity analyses of the obtained optimal solution. The value of the objective function is directly calculated under varying parameters. To show the validity and applicability of the proposed method, a numerical example is presented. The system reliability optimization problem is also illustrated and found that the value of the objective function lies between the range of lower and upper bounds, respectively. At last, conclusions and future research are depicted based on the discussed work.

Keywords: varying parameters, geometric programming problem, bounded solution method, system reliability optimization

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Authors: Heather Warfield, Brad Genereux

Abstract:

Military personnel encounter a number of challenges when separating from military service to include career uncertainty, relational/family dynamics, trauma as a result of military experiences, reconceptualization of identity, and existential issues related to purpose, meaning making and framing of the military experience(s). Embedded within military culture are well-defined rites of passage and a significant sense of belonging. Consequently, transition out of the military can result in the loss of such rites of passage and belongingness. However, a pilgrimage journey can provide the time and space to engage in a new rite of passage, to construct a new pilgrim identity, and a to develop deep social relationships that lead to a sense of belongingness to a particular pilgrim community as well as to the global community of pilgrims across numerous types of pilgrimage journeys. The aims of the current paper are to demonstrate the rationale for why pilgrimage journeys are particularly significant for military veterans, provide an overview of an innovative program that facilitates the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage for military veterans, and discusses the lessons learned from the initial pilot project of a recently established program. Veterans on the Camino (VOC) is an emerging nongovernmental organization in the USA. Founded by a military veteran, after leaving his military career, the primary objective of the organization is to facilitate healing for veterans via the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage journey. As part of the program, participants complete a semi-structured interview at three time points – pre, during, and post journey. The interview items are based on ongoing research by the principal investigator and address such constructs as meaning-making, wellbeing, therapeutic benefits and transformation. In addition, program participants complete The Sources of Meaning and Meaning in Life Questionnaire (SoMe). The pilot program occurred in the spring of 2017. Five participants were selected after an extensive application process and review by a three-person selection board. The selection criteria included demonstrated compatibility with the program objectives (i.e., prior military experience, availability for a 40 day journey, and awareness of the need for a transformational intervention). The participants were connected as a group through a private Facebook site and interacted with one another for several months prior to the pilgrimage. Additionally, the participants were interviewed prior to beginning the pilgrimage, at one point during the pilgrimage and immediately following the conclusion of the pilgrimage journey. The interviews yielded themes related to loss, meaning construction, renewed hope in humanity, and a commitment to future goals. The lessons learned from this pilot project included a confirmation of the need for such a program, a need for greater focus on logistical details, and the recognition that the pilgrimage experience needs to continue in some manner once the veterans return home.

Keywords: pilgrimage, healing, military veterans, Camino de Santiago

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