Search results for: global justice
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5802

Search results for: global justice

4152 Energy Security and Sustainable Development: Challenges and Prospects

Authors: Abhimanyu Behera

Abstract:

Over the past few years, energy security and sustainable development have moved rapidly into the global agenda. There are two main reasons: first, the impact of high and often volatile energy prices; second, concerns over environmental sustainability particularly about the global climate. Both issues are critically important in which impressive economic growth has boosted the demand for energy and put corresponding strains on the environment. Energy security is a broad concept that focuses on energy availability and pricing. Specifically, it refers to the ability of the energy supply system i.e. suppliers, transporters, distributors and regulatory, financial and R&D institutions to deliver the amount of competitively priced energy that customers demand, within accepted standards of reliability, timeliness, quality, safety. Traditionally, energy security has been defined in the context of the geopolitical risks to external oil supplies but today it is encompassing all energy forms, all the external and internal links bringing the energy to the final consumer, and all the many ways energy supplies can be disrupted including equipment malfunctions, system design flaws, operator errors, malicious computer activities, deficient market and regulatory frameworks, corporate financial problems, labour actions, severe weather and natural events, aggressive acts (e.g. war, terrorism and sabotage), and geopolitical disruptions. In practice, the most challenging disruptions are those linked to: 1) extreme weather events; 2) mismatched electricity supply and demand; 3) regulatory failures; and 4) concentration of oil and gas resources in certain regions of the world. However, insecure energy supplies inhibit development by raising energy costs and imposing expensive cuts in services when disruptions actually occur. The energy supply sector can best advance sustainable development by producing and delivering secure and environmentally-friendly sources of energy and by increasing the efficiency of energy use. With this objective, this paper seeks to highlight the significance of energy security and sustainable development in today’s world. Moreover, it critically overhauls the major challenges towards sustainability of energy security and what are the major policies are taken to overcome these challenges by Government is lucidly explicated in this paper.

Keywords: energy, policies, security, sustainability

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4151 Mathematical and Numerical Analysis of a Nonlinear Cross Diffusion System

Authors: Hassan Al Salman

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We consider a nonlinear parabolic cross diffusion model arising in applied mathematics. A fully practical piecewise linear finite element approximation of the model is studied. By using entropy-type inequalities and compactness arguments, existence of a global weak solution is proved. Providing further regularity of the solution of the model, some uniqueness results and error estimates are established. Finally, some numerical experiments are performed.

Keywords: cross diffusion model, entropy-type inequality, finite element approximation, numerical analysis

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4150 Bridging Binaries: Exploring Students' Conceptions of Good Teaching within Teacher-Centered and Learner-Centered Pedagogies of Their Teachers in Disadvantaged Public Schools in the Philippines

Authors: Julie Lucille H. Del Valle

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To improve its public school education, the Philippines took a radical curriculum reform in 2012, by launching the K-to-12 program which not only added two years to its basic education but also mandated for a replacement of traditional teaching with learner-centered pedagogy, an instruction whose western underpinnings suggest improving student achievement, thus, making pedagogies in the country more or less similar with those in Europe and USA. This policy, however, placed learner-centered pedagogy in a binary opposition against teacher-centered instruction, creating a simplistic dichotomy between good and bad teaching. It is in this dichotomy that this study seeks to explore, using Critical Pedagogy of the Place as the lens, in understanding what constitutes good teaching across a range of learner-centered and teacher-centered pedagogies in the context of public schools in disadvantaged communities. Furthermore, this paper examines how pedagogical homogeneity, arguably influenced by dominant global imperatives with economic agenda – often referred as economisation of education – not only thins out local identities as structures of global schooling become increasingly similar but also limits the concept of good teaching to student outcomes and corporate employability. This paper draws from qualitative research on students, thus addressing the gap created by studies on good teaching which looked mainly into the perceptions of teachers and administrators, while overlooking those of students whose voices must be considered in the formulation of inclusive policies that advocate for true education reform. Using ethnographic methods including student focus groups, classroom observations, and teacher interviews, responses from students of disadvantaged schools reveal that good teaching includes both learner-centered and teacher-centered practices that incorporate ‘academic caring’ which sustains their motivation to achieve in school despite the challenging learning environments. The combination of these two pedagogies equips students with life-long skills necessary to gain equal access to sustainable economic opportunities in their local communities.

Keywords: critical pedagogy of the place, good teaching, learner-centered pedagogy, placed-based instruction

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4149 Deploying a Transformative Learning Model in Technological University Dublin to Assess Transversal Skills

Authors: Sandra Thompson, Paul Dervan

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Ireland’s first Technological University (TU Dublin) was established on 1st January 2019, and its creation is an exciting new milestone in Irish Higher Education. TU Dublin is now Ireland’s biggest University supporting 29,000 students across three campuses with 3,500 staff. The University aspires to create work-ready graduates who are socially responsible, open-minded global thinkers who are ambitious to change the world for the better. As graduates, they will be enterprising and daring in all their endeavors, ready to play their part in transforming the future. Feedback from Irish employers and students coupled with evidence from other authoritative sources such as the World Economic Forum points to a need for greater focus on the development of students’ employability skills as they prepare for today’s work environment. Moreover, with an increased focus on Universal Design for Learning (UDL) and inclusiveness, there is recognition that students are more than a numeric grade value. Robust grading systems have been developed to track a student’s performance around discipline knowledge but there is little or no global consensus on a definition of transversal skills nor on a unified framework to assess transversal skills. Education and industry sectors are often assessing one or two skills, and some are developing their own frameworks to capture the learner’s achievement in this area. Technological University Dublin (TU Dublin) have discovered and implemented a framework to allow students to develop, assess and record their transversal skills using transformative learning theory. The model implemented is an adaptation of Student Transformative Learning Record - STLR which originated in the University of Central Oklahoma (UCO). The purpose of this paper therefore, is to examine the views of students, staff and employers in the context of deploying a Transformative Learning model within the University to assess transversal skills. It will examine the initial impact the transformative learning model is having socially, personally and on the University as an organization. Crucially also, to identify lessons learned from the deployment in order to assist other Universities and Higher Education Institutes who may be considering a focused adoption of Transformative Learning to meet the challenge of preparing students for today’s work environment.

Keywords: assessing transversal skills, higher education, transformative learning, students

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4148 Performance Demonstration of Extendable NSPO Space-Borne GPS Receiver

Authors: Hung-Yuan Chang, Wen-Lung Chiang, Kuo-Liang Wu, Chen-Tsung Lin

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National Space Organization (NSPO) has completed in 2014 the development of a space-borne GPS receiver, including design, manufacture, comprehensive functional test, environmental qualification test and so on. The main performance of this receiver include 8-meter positioning accuracy, 0.05 m/sec speed-accuracy, the longest 90 seconds of cold start time, and up to 15g high dynamic scenario. The receiver will be integrated in the autonomous FORMOSAT-7 NSPO-Built satellite scheduled to be launched in 2019 to execute pre-defined scientific missions. The flight model of this receiver manufactured in early 2015 will pass comprehensive functional tests and environmental acceptance tests, etc., which are expected to be completed by the end of 2015. The space-borne GPS receiver is a pure software design in which all GPS baseband signal processing are executed by a digital signal processor (DSP), currently only 50% of its throughput being used. In response to the booming global navigation satellite systems, NSPO will gradually expand this receiver to become a multi-mode, multi-band, high-precision navigation receiver, and even a science payload, such as the reflectometry receiver of a global navigation satellite system. The fundamental purpose of this extension study is to port some software algorithms such as signal acquisition and correlation, reused code and large amount of computation load to the FPGA whose processor is responsible for operational control, navigation solution, and orbit propagation and so on. Due to the development and evolution of the FPGA is pretty fast, the new system architecture upgraded via an FPGA should be able to achieve the goal of being a multi-mode, multi-band high-precision navigation receiver, or scientific receiver. Finally, the results of tests show that the new system architecture not only retains the original overall performance, but also sets aside more resources available for future expansion possibility. This paper will explain the detailed DSP/FPGA architecture, development, test results, and the goals of next development stage of this receiver.

Keywords: space-borne, GPS receiver, DSP, FPGA, multi-mode multi-band

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4147 Geographic and Territorial Knowledge as Epistemic Contexts for Intercultural Curriculum Development

Authors: Verónica Muñoz-Rivero

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The historically marginalized indigenous communities in the Atacama Desert continue to experience and struggle curricular hegemony in a prevalent monocultural educational context that denies heritage, culture and epistemologies in a documented attempted knowledge negation by the educational policies, the national curriculum and educational culture. The ancestral indigenous community of Toconce demands a territorial-based intercultural education and a school in their ancestral land to prevent the progressive cultural loss as they reclaim their memory and identity negated. This case study makes use of the intercultural theoretical framework and open qualitative methodology to analyze local socio-educational reality integrating aspects related to the educational experience, education demands for future generations and importance given to formal education. The interlocutors: elders, parents, caretakers and former teachers raised the educational experience for the indigenous childhood as an intergenerational voice that experienced discrimination, exclusion and racism on their K-12 trajectories. By center, the indigenous epistemologies, geography and memory, this research proposes a project-based learning approach anchored to the Limpia de Canales ceremony to develop a situated territorial intercultural curriculum unpacking from the local epistemology and structure thinking. The work on terraces gives students the opportunity to co-create a real-life application with practical purpose and present the importance of reinforcing notions related to the relevance of a situated intercultural curriculum for social justice in the formative development of prospective teachers.

Keywords: cultural studies, decolonial education, epistemic symmetry, intercultural curriculum, multidimensional curriculum

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4146 Relaxing Convergence Constraints in Local Priority Hysteresis Switching Logic

Authors: Mubarak Alhajri

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This paper addresses certain inherent limitations of local priority hysteresis switching logic. Our main result establishes that under persistent excitation assumption, it is possible to relax constraints requiring strict positivity of local priority and hysteresis switching constants. Relaxing these constraints allows the adaptive system to reach optimality which implies the performance improvement. The unconstrained local priority hysteresis switching logic is examined and conditions for global convergence are derived.

Keywords: adaptive control, convergence, hysteresis constant, hysteresis switching

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4145 Comparing Community Health Agents, Physicians and Nurses in Brazil's Family Health Strategy

Authors: Rahbel Rahman, Rogério Meireles Pinto, Margareth Santos Zanchetta

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Background: Existing shortcomings of current health-service delivery include poor teamwork, competencies that do not address consumer needs, and episodic rather than continuous care. Brazil’s Sistema Único de Saúde (Unified Health System, UHS) is acknowledged worldwide as a model for delivering community-based care through Estratégia Saúde da Família (FHS; Family Health Strategy) interdisciplinary teams, comprised of Community Health Agents (in Portuguese, Agentes Comunitário de Saude, ACS), nurses, and physicians. FHS teams are mandated to collectively offer clinical care, disease prevention services, vector control, health surveillance and social services. Our study compares medical providers (nurses and physicians) and community-based providers (ACS) on their perceptions of work environment, professional skills, cognitive capacities and job context. Global health administrators and policy makers can leverage on similarities and differences across care providers to develop interprofessional training for community-based primary care. Methods: Cross-sectional data were collected from 168 ACS, 62 nurses and 32 physicians in Brazil. We compared providers’ demographic characteristics (age, race, and gender) and job context variables (caseload, work experience, work proximity to community, the length of commute, and familiarity with the community). Providers perceptions were compared to their work environment (work conditions and work resources), professional skills (consumer-input, interdisciplinary collaboration, efficacy of FHS teams, work-methods and decision-making autonomy), and cognitive capacities (knowledge and skills, skill variety, confidence and perseverance). Descriptive and bi-variate analysis, such as Pearson Chi-square and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) F-tests, were performed to draw comparisons across providers. Results: Majority of participants were ACS (64%); 24% nurses; and 12% physicians. Majority of nurses and ACS identified as mixed races (ACS, n=85; nurses, n=27); most physicians identified as males (n=16; 52%), and white (n=18; 58%). Physicians were less likely to incorporate consumer-input and demonstrated greater decision-making autonomy than nurses and ACS. ACS reported the highest levels of knowledge and skills but the least confidence compared to nurses and physicians. ACS, nurses, and physicians were efficacious that FHS teams improved the quality of health in their catchment areas, though nurses tend to disagree that interdisciplinary collaboration facilitated their work. Conclusion: To our knowledge, there has been no study comparing key demographic and cognitive variables across ACS, nurses and physicians in the context of their work environment and professional training. We suggest that global health systems can leverage upon the diverse perspectives of providers to implement a community-based primary care model grounded in interprofessional training. Our study underscores the need for in-service trainings to instill reflective skills of providers, improve communication skills of medical providers and curative skills of ACS. Greater autonomy needs to be extended to community based providers to offer care integral to addressing consumer and community needs.

Keywords: global health systems, interdisciplinary health teams, community health agents, community-based care

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4144 Climate Related Financial Risk on Automobile Industry and the Impact to the Financial Institutions

Authors: Mahalakshmi Vivekanandan S.

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As per the recent changes happening in the global policies, climate-related changes and the impact it causes across every sector are viewed as green swan events – in essence, climate-related changes can often happen and lead to risk and a lot of uncertainty, but needs to be mitigated instead of considering them as black swan events. This brings about a question on how this risk can be computed so that the financial institutions can plan to mitigate it. Climate-related changes impact all risk types – credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk, reputational risk and other risk types. And the models required to compute this has to consider the different industrial needs of the counterparty, as well as the factors that are contributing to this – be it in the form of different risk drivers, or the different transmission channels or the different approaches and the granular form of data availability. This brings out the suggestion that the climate-related changes, though it affects Pillar I risks, will be a Pillar II risk. This has to be modeled specifically based on the financial institution’s actual exposure to different industries instead of generalizing the risk charge. And this will have to be considered as the additional capital to be met by the financial institution in addition to their Pillar I risks, as well as the existing Pillar II risks. In this paper, the author presents a risk assessment framework to model and assess climate change risks - for both credit and market risks. This framework helps in assessing the different scenarios and how the different transition risks affect the risk associated with the different parties. This research paper delves into the topic of the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases that in turn cause global warming. It then considers the various scenarios of having the different risk drivers impacting the Credit and market risk of an institution by understanding the transmission channels and also considering the transition risk. The paper then focuses on the industry that’s fast seeing a disruption: the automobile industry. The paper uses the framework to show how the climate changes and the change to the relevant policies have impacted the entire financial institution. Appropriate statistical models for forecasting, anomaly detection and scenario modeling are built to demonstrate how the framework can be used by the relevant agencies to understand their financial risks. The paper also focuses on the climate risk calculation for the Pillar II Capital calculations and how it will make sense for the bank to maintain this in addition to their regular Pillar I and Pillar II capital.

Keywords: capital calculation, climate risk, credit risk, pillar ii risk, scenario modeling

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4143 Process for Analyzing Information Security Risks Associated with the Incorporation of Online Dispute Resolution Systems in the Context of Conciliation in Colombia

Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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4142 Firefighting Means in Food Industries

Authors: Racim Rifaat Ferdjani, Zineddine Chetoui

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The goal of our work is to provide a tool that helps control and ensures a global view of the means of firefighting (MLCI) in a food production plant (for example Hamoud Boualem plant). We divided the site into 4 zones, then we identified the firefighting means (MLCI) present in each zone, taking into account their type, weight, location, and fire class as well as their compliance with respect to the regulations in force while assigning them an alphanumeric reference which makes it possible to deduce everything. Thus, the use of a tool in the form of an Excel table was made concrete, and an average compliance rate of 45% was therefore obtained.

Keywords: MLCI, firefighting means, Hamoud, Boualem

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4141 Effectiveness of Mobile Health Augmented Cardiac Rehabilitation (MCard) on Health-Related Quality of Life among Post-Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Authors: Aliya Hisam, Zia Ul Haq, Sohail Aziz, Patrick Doherty, Jill Pell

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Objective: To determine the effectiveness of Mobile health augmented Cardiac rehabilitation (MCard) on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among post-acute coronary syndrome(post-ACS) patients. Methodology: In a randomized controlled trial, post-ACS patients were randomly allocated (1:1) to an intervention group (received MCard; counseling, empowering with self-monitoring devices, short text messages, in addition to standard post-ACS care) or control group (standard post-ACS care). HRQoL was assessed by generic Short Form-12 and MacNew quality of life myocardial infarction (QLMI) tools. Participants were followed for 24 weeks with data collection and analysis at three-time points (baseline, 12 weeks and 24 weeks). Result: At baseline, 160 patients (80 in each group; mean age 52.66+8.46 years; 126 males, 78.75%) were recruited, of which 121(75.62%) continued and were analyzed at 12-weeks and 119(74.37%) at 24-weeks. The mean SF-12 physical component score significantly improved in the MCard group at 12 weeks follow-up (48.93 vs. control 43.87, p<.001) and 24 weeks (53.52 vs. 46.82 p<.001). The mean SF-12 mental component scores also improved significantly in the MCard group at 12 weeks follow-up (44.84 vs. control 41.40, p<.001) and 24 weeks follow-up (48.95 vs 40.12, p<.001). At 12-and 24-week follow-up, all domains of MacNew QLMI (social, emotional, physical and global) were also statistically significant (p<.001) improved in the MCard group, unlike the control group. Conclusion: MCard is feasible and effective at improving all domains of HRQoL. There was an improvement in physical, mental, social, emotional and global domains among the MCard group in comparison to the control group. The addition of MCard programs to post-ACS standard care may improve patient outcomes and reduce the burden on the health care setting.

Keywords: acute coronary syndrome, mobile health augmented cardiac rehabilitation (MCard), cardiovascular diseases, cardiac rehabilitation, health-related quality of life, short form 12, MacNew QLMI

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4140 Bank Liquidity Creation in a Dual Banking System: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: Lianne M. Q. Lee, Mohammed Sharaf Shaiban

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The importance of bank liquidity management took center stage as policy makers promoted a more resilient global banking system after the market turmoil of 2007. The growing recognition of Islamic banks’ function of intermediating funds in the economy warrants the need to investigate its balance sheet structure which is distinct from its conventional counterparts. Given that asymmetric risk, transformation is inevitable; Islamic banks need to identify the liquidity risk within their distinctive balance sheet structure. Thus, there is a strong need to quantify and assess the liquidity position to ensure proper functioning of a financial institution. It is vital to measure bank liquidity because liquid banks face less liquidity risk. We examine this issue by using two alternative quantitative measures of liquidity creation “cat fat” and “cat nonfat” constructed by Berger and Bouwman (2009). “Cat fat” measures all on balance sheet items including off balance sheet, whilst the latter measures only on balance sheet items. Liquidity creation is measured over the period 2007-2014 in 14 countries where Islamic and conventional commercial banks coexist. Also, separately by bank size class as empirical studies have shown that liquidity creation varies by bank size. An interesting and important finding shows that all size class of Islamic banks, on average have increased creation of aggregate liquidity in real dollar terms over the years for both liquidity creation measures especially for large banks indicating that Islamic banks actually generates more liquidity to the economy compared to its conventional counterparts, including from off-balance sheet items. The liquidity creation for off-balance sheets by conventional banks may have been affected by the global financial crisis when derivatives markets were severely hit. The results also suggest that Islamic banks have the higher volume of assets and deposits and that borrowing/issues of bonds are less in Islamic banks compared to conventional banks because most products are interest-based. As Islamic banks appear to create more liquidity than conventional banks under both measures, it translates that the development of Islamic banking is significant over the decades since its inception. This finding is encouraging as, despite Islamic banking’s overall size, it represents growth opportunities for these countries.

Keywords: financial institution, liquidity creation, liquidity risk, policy and regulation

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4139 Gas Tungsten Arc Welded Joints of Cast Al-Mg-Sc Alloy

Authors: K. Subbaiah, C. V. Jeyakumar, S. R. Koteswara Rao

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Cast Aluminum-Magnesium-Scandium alloy was Gas Tungsten Arc (GTA) welded, and the microstructure and mechanical properties of the joint and its component parts were examined and analyzed. The global joint fractured in the base metal, and thus possessed slightly greater tensile strength than the base metal. These results clearly show that Gas Tungsten Arc welding is an optimum / suitable welding process for cast Aluminum-Magnesium-Scandium alloys.

Keywords: cast Al-Mg-Sc alloy, GTAW, microstructure, mechanical properties

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4138 Voluntary Disclosure Of Sustainability Information In Malaysian Federal-level Statutory Bodies

Authors: Siti Zabedah Saidin, Aidi Ahmi, Azharudin Ali, Wan Norhayati Wan Ahmad

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In today's increasingly complex and interconnected world, the concept of sustainability has transcended mere corporate social responsibility, evolving into a fundamental driver of organizational behaviour and disclosure. This content analysis study delves into the Malaysian federal-level statutory bodies’ annual report for the year 2021, aiming to elucidate the extent of sustainability disclosures within the non-financial sections of these reports. The escalating global emphasis on sustainability has prompted organizations to embrace transparency as a means to demonstrate their commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations. Voluntary sustainability disclosure has emerged as a crucial channel through which organizations communicate their efforts, initiatives, and impacts in these areas, thereby fostering trust and accountability with stakeholders. The study aims to identify and examine the types of sustainability information disclosed voluntarily by the federal-level statutory bodies, concentrating on the non-financial sections of the annual reports. To achieve this, the study adopts a simplified disclosure index, a pragmatic tool that quantifies the extent of sustainability reporting in a standardized manner. Using convenience sampling, the study selects a sample of annual reports from the federal-level statutory bodies in Malaysia, as provided on their respective websites. The content analysis is centred on the non-financial sections of these reports, allowing for an in-depth exploration of sustainability disclosures. The findings of the study present the extent to which Malaysian federal-level statutory bodies embrace sustainability reporting. Through thorough content analysis, the study uncovered diverse dimensions of sustainability information, encompassing environmental impact assessments, social engagement endeavours, and governance frameworks. This reveals a deliberate effort by these bodies to encapsulate their holistic organizational contributions and challenges, transcending traditional financial metrics. This research contributes to the existing literature by providing insights into the evolving landscape of sustainability disclosure practices among Malaysian federal-level statutory bodies. The findings underline the proactive nature of these bodies in voluntarily sharing sustainability-related information, reflecting their recognition of the interconnectedness between organizational success and societal well-being. Furthermore, the study underscores the potential influence of regulatory guidelines and societal expectations in shaping the extent and nature of voluntary sustainability disclosures. Organizations are not merely responding to regulatory mandates but are actively aligning with global sustainability goals and stakeholder expectations. As organizations continue to navigate the intricate web of stakeholder expectations and sustainability imperatives, this study enriches the discourse surrounding transparency and sustainability reporting. The analysis emphasizes the important role of non-financial disclosures in portraying a holistic organizational narrative. In an era where stakeholders demand accountability, and the interconnectedness of global challenges necessitates collaborative action, the voluntary disclosure of sustainability information stands as a testament to the commitment of Malaysian federal-level statutory bodies in shaping a more sustainable future.

Keywords: voluntary disclosure, sustainability information, annual report, federal-level statutory body

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4137 A Method To Assess Collaboration Using Perception of Risk from the Architectural Engineering Construction Industry

Authors: Sujesh F. Sujan, Steve W. Jones, Arto Kiviniemi

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The use of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in the Architectural-Engineering-Construction (AEC) industry is a form of systemic innovation. Unlike incremental innovation, (such as the technological development of CAD from hand based drawings to 2D electronically printed drawings) any form of systemic innovation in Project-Based Inter-Organisational Networks requires complete collaboration and results in numerous benefits if adopted and utilised properly. Proper use of BIM involves people collaborating with the use of interoperable BIM compliant tools. The AEC industry globally has been known for its adversarial and fragmented nature where firms take advantage of one another to increase their own profitability. Due to the industry’s nature, getting people to collaborate by unifying their goals is critical to successful BIM adoption. However, this form of innovation is often being forced artificially in the old ways of working which do not suit collaboration. This may be one of the reasons for its low global use even though the technology was developed more than 20 years ago. Therefore, there is a need to develop a metric/method to support and allow industry players to gain confidence in their investment into BIM software and workflow methods. This paper departs from defining systemic risk as a risk that affects all the project participants at a given stage of a project and defines categories of systemic risks. The need to generalise is to allow method applicability to any industry where the category will be the same, but the example of the risk will depend on the industry the study is done in. The method proposed seeks to use individual perception of an example of systemic risk as a key parameter. The significance of this study lies in relating the variance of individual perception of systemic risk to how much the team is collaborating. The method bases its notions on the claim that a more unified range of individual perceptions would mean a higher probability that the team is collaborating better. Since contracts and procurement devise how a project team operates, the method could also break the methodological barrier of highly subjective findings that case studies inflict, which has limited the possibility of generalising between global industries. Since human nature applies in all industries, the authors’ intuition is that perception can be a valuable parameter to study collaboration which is essential especially in projects that utilise systemic innovation such as BIM.

Keywords: building information modelling, perception of risk, systemic innovation, team collaboration

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4136 Solar Photovoltaic Driven Air-Conditioning for Commercial Buildings: A Case of Botswana

Authors: Taboka Motlhabane, Pradeep Sahoo

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The global demand for cooling has grown exponentially over the past century to meet economic development and social needs, accounting for approximately 10% of the global electricity consumption. As global temperatures continue to rise, the demand for cooling and heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment is set to rise with it. The increased use of HVAC equipment has significantly contributed to the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which aid the climate crisis- one of the biggest challenges faced by the current generation. The need to address emissions caused directly by HVAC equipment and electricity generated to meet the cooling or heating demand is ever more pressing. Currently, developed countries account for the largest cooling and heating demand, however developing countries are anticipated to experience a huge increase in population growth in 10 years, resulting in a shift in energy demand. Developing countries, which are projected to account for nearly 60% of the world's GDP by 2030, are rapidly building infrastructure and economies to meet their growing needs and meet these projections. Cooling, a very energy-intensive process that can account for 20 % to 75% of a building's energy, depending on the building's use. Solar photovoltaic (PV) driven air-conditioning offers a great cost-effective alternative for adoption in both residential and non-residential buildings to offset grid electricity, particularly in countries with high irradiation, such as Botswana. This research paper explores the potential of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic vapor-compression air-conditioning system for the Peter-Smith herbarium at the Okavango Research Institute (ORI) University of Botswana campus in Maun, Botswana. The herbarium plays a critical role in the collection and preservation of botanical data, dating back over 100 years, with pristine collection from the Okavango Delta, a UNESCO world heritage site and serves as a reference and research site. Due to the herbarium’s specific needs, it operates throughout the day and year in an attempt to maintain a constant herbarium temperature of 16°?. The herbarium model studied simulates a variable-air-volume HVAC system with a system rating of 30 kW. Simulation results show that the HVAC system accounts for 68.9% of the building's total electricity at 296 509.60 kWh annually. To offset the grid electricity, a 175.1 kWp nominal power rated PV system requiring 416 modules to match the required power, covering an area of 928 m2 is used to meet the HVAC system annual needs. An economic assessment using PVsyst found that for an installation priced with average solar PV prices in Botswana totalled to be 787 090.00 BWP, with annual operating costs of 30 500 BWP/year. With self-project financing, the project is estimated to have recouped its initial investment within 6.7 years. At an estimated project lifetime of 20 years, the Net Present Value is projected at 1 565 687.00 BWP with a ROI of 198.9%, with 74 070.67 tons of CO2 saved at the end of the project lifetime. This study investigates the performance of the HVAC system to meet the indoor air comfort requirements, the annual PV system performance, and the building model has been simulated using DesignBuilder Software.

Keywords: vapor compression refrigeration, solar cooling, renewable energy, herbarium

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4135 Insight into Enhancement of CO2 Capture by Clay Minerals

Authors: Mardin Abdalqadir, Paul Adzakro, Tannaz Pak, Sina Rezaei Gomari

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Climate change and global warming recently became significant concerns due to the massive emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, predominantly CO2 gases. Therefore, it is necessary to find sustainable and inexpensive methods to capture the greenhouse gasses and protect the environment for live species. The application of naturally available and cheap adsorbents of carbon such as clay minerals became a great interest. However, the minerals prone to low storage capacity despite their high affinity to adsorb carbon. This paper aims to explore ways to improve the pore volume and surface area of two selected clay minerals, ‘montmorillonite and kaolinite’ by acid treatment to overcome their low storage capacity. Montmorillonite and kaolinite samples were treated with different sulfuric acid concentrations (0.5, 1.2 and 2.5 M) at 40 °C for 8 hours to achieve the above aim. The grain size distribution and morphology of clay minerals before and after acid treatment were explored with Scanning Electron Microscope to evaluate surface area improvement. The ImageJ software was used to find the porosity and pore volume of treated and untreated clay samples. The structure of the clay minerals was also analyzed using an X-ray Diffraction machine. The results showed that the pore volume and surface area were increased substantially through acid treatment, which speeded up the rate of carbon dioxide adsorption. XRD pattern of kaolinite did not change after sulfuric acid treatment, which indicates that acid treatment would not affect the structure of kaolinite. It was also discovered that kaolinite had a higher pore volume and porosity than montmorillonite before and after acid treatment. For example, the pore volume of untreated kaolinite was equal to 30.498 um3 with a porosity of 23.49%. Raising the concentration of acid from 0.5 M to 2.5 M in 8 hours’ time reaction led to increased pore volume from 30.498 um3 to 34.73 um3. The pore volume of raw montmorillonite was equal to 15.610 um3 with a porosity of 12.7%. When the acid concentration was raised from 0.5 M to 2.5 M for the same reaction time, pore volume also increased from 15.610 um3 to 20.538 um3. However, montmorillonite had a higher specific surface area than kaolinite. This study concludes that clay minerals are inexpensive and available material sources to model the realistic conditions and apply the results of carbon capture to prevent global warming, which is one of the most critical and urgent problems in the world.

Keywords: acid treatment, kaolinite, montmorillonite, pore volume, porosity, surface area

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4134 The Implementation of Sexual and Reproductive Health Education Policy in Schools in Asia and Africa: A Scoping Review

Authors: Rhea Khosla, Victoria Tzortziou-Brown

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Introduction: Adolescent SRH has been neglected since the start of the millennium. Adolescents comprise 16% of the global population, with the largest proportion living in Asia (650 million). By late adolescence, individuals in these regions are likely to become sexually active, and thus they must understand their SRH rights. Many lack knowledge of SRH, using unreliable sources for such information. Sex education is necessary to standardize and inform sexual knowledge, which empowers adolescents to make informed SRH decisions. School is an appropriate environment for this, however, SRH education requires effective policy to enforce. Nonetheless, this issue remains of low political priority in Asia and Africa. Current literature on sex education policy in schools in these regions is scarce and tends to have broad aims. Thus, a scoping review was necessary. Methods: Literature searches were conducted in February 2023 using six databases, including grey literature databases (PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Global Index Medicus), returning a total of 1537 unique articles. After screening titles, abstracts and full text, 17 articles remained. References of included articles were additionally searched, producing a further 7 articles, which then underwent thematic analysis Results: Most countries in Africa and Asia did not have studies on this topic. Studies derived data from interviews with key stakeholders and quantitative methods quantified questionnaire responses. Barriers were: policy/curriculum issues, societal opinions, teaching discomfort, and lack of educator training. Limitations were insufficient timing, inconsistent implementation, insufficient hours dedicated to teaching, education received late into schooling, and discrepancies between teachers, schools, and students about whether policies were being implemented. Discussion: Based on the existing limited evidence, a cultural shift to reduce stigma seems necessary, alongside teacher and student involvement in policy formulation with effective implementation monitoring and educator training.

Keywords: adolescent, Africa, Asia, education, sexual and reproductive health, policy

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4133 Nurse-Led Codes: Practical Application in the Emergency Department during a Global Pandemic

Authors: F. DelGaudio, H. Gill

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Resuscitation during cardiopulmonary (CPA) arrest is dynamic, high stress, high acuity situation, which can easily lead to communication breakdown, and errors. The care of these high acuity patients has also been shown to increase physiologic stress and task saturation of providers, which can negatively impact the care being provided. These difficulties are further complicated during a global pandemic and pose a significant safety risk to bedside providers. Nurse-led codes are a relatively new concept that may be a potential solution for alleviating some of these difficulties. An experienced nurse who has completed advanced cardiac life support (ACLS), and additional training, assumed the responsibility of directing the mechanics of the appropriate ACLS algorithm. This was done in conjunction with a physician who also acted as a physician leader. The additional nurse-led code training included a multi-disciplinary in situ simulation of a CPA on a suspected COVID-19 patient. During the CPA, the nurse leader’s responsibilities include: ensuring adequate compression depth and rate, minimizing interruptions in chest compressions, the timing of rhythm/pulse checks, and appropriate medication administration. In addition, the nurse leader also functions as a last line safety check for appropriate personal protective equipment and limiting exposure of staff. The use of nurse-led codes for CPA has shown to decrease the cognitive overload and task saturation for the physician, as well as limiting the number of staff being exposed to a potentially infectious patient. The real-world application has allowed physicians to perform and oversee high-risk procedures such as intubation, line placement, and point of care ultrasound, without sacrificing the integrity of the resuscitation. Nurse-led codes have also given the physician the bandwidth to review pertinent medical history, advanced directives, determine reversible causes, and have the end of life conversations with family. While there is a paucity of research on the effectiveness of nurse-led codes, there are many potentially significant benefits. In addition to its value during a pandemic, it may also be beneficial during complex circumstances such as extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Keywords: cardiopulmonary arrest, COVID-19, nurse-led code, task saturation

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4132 Socio-Economic Setting and Implications to Climate Change Impacts in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Kenneth Nhundu, Leocadia Zhou, Farhad Aghdasi, Voster Muchenje

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Climate change poses increased risks to rural communities that rely on natural resources, such as forests, cropland and rangeland, waterways, and open spaces Because of their connection to the land and the potential for climate change to impact natural resources and disrupt ecosystems and seasons, rural livelihoods and well-being are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change. Climate change has the potential to affect the environment in a number of ways that place increased stress on everyone, but disproportionately on the most vulnerable populations, including the young, the old, those with chronic illness, and the poor. The communities in the study area are predominantly rural, resource-based and are generally surrounded by public or private lands that are dominated by natural resources, including forests, rangelands, and agriculture. The livelihoods of these communities are tied to natural resources. Therefore, targeted strategies to cope will be required. This paper assessed the household socio-economic characteristics and their implications to household vulnerability to climate change impacts in the rural Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The results indicate that the rural communities are climate-vulnerable populations as they have a large proportion of people who are less economically or physically capable of adapting to climate change. The study therefore recommends that at each level, the needs, knowledge, and voices of vulnerable populations, including indigenous peoples and resource-based communities, deserve consideration and incorporation so that climate change policy (1) ensures that all people are supported and able to act, (2) provides as robust a strategy as possible to address a rapidly changing environment, and (3) enhances equity and justice.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerable, socio-economic, livelihoods

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4131 Comparative Study of the Earth Land Surface Temperature Signatures over Ota, South-West Nigeria

Authors: Moses E. Emetere, M. L. Akinyemi

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Agricultural activities in the South–West Nigeria are mitigated by the global increase in temperature. The unpredictive surface temperature of the area had increased health challenges amongst other social influence. The satellite data of surface temperatures were compared with the ground station Davis weather station. The differential heating of the lower atmosphere were represented mathematically. A numerical predictive model was propounded to forecast future surface temperature.

Keywords: numerical predictive model, surface temperature, satellite date, ground data

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4130 Bio-Hub Ecosystems: Profitability through Circularity for Sustainable Forestry, Energy, Agriculture and Aquaculture

Authors: Kimberly Samaha

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The Bio-Hub Ecosystem model was developed to address a critical area of concern within the global energy market regarding biomass as a feedstock for power plants. Yet the lack of an economically-viable business model for bioenergy facilities has resulted in the continuation of idled and decommissioned plants. This study analyzed data and submittals to the Born Global Maine Innovation Challenge. The Innovation Challenge was a global innovation challenge to identify process innovations that could address a ‘whole-tree’ approach of maximizing the products, byproducts, energy value and process slip-streams into a circular zero-waste design. Participating companies were at various stages of developing bioproducts and included biofuels, lignin-based products, carbon capture platforms and biochar used as both a filtration medium and as a soil amendment product. This case study shows the QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) methodology of the prequalification process and the resulting techno-economic model that was developed for the maximizing profitability of the Bio-Hub Ecosystem through continuous expansion of system waste streams into valuable process inputs for co-hosts. A full site plan for the integration of co-hosts (biorefinery, land-based shrimp and salmon aquaculture farms, a tomato green-house and a hops farm) at an operating forestry-based biomass to energy plant in West Enfield, Maine USA. This model and process for evaluating the profitability not only proposes models for integration of forestry, aquaculture and agriculture in cradle-to-cradle linkages of what have typically been linear systems, but the proposal also allows for the early measurement of the circularity and impact of resource use and investment risk mitigation, for these systems. In this particular study, profitability is assessed at two levels CAPEX (Capital Expenditures) and in OPEX (Operating Expenditures). Given that these projects start with repurposing facilities where the industrial level infrastructure is already built, permitted and interconnected to the grid, the addition of co-hosts first realizes a dramatic reduction in permitting, development times and costs. In addition, using the biomass energy plant’s waste streams such as heat, hot water, CO₂ and fly ash as valuable inputs to their operations and a significant decrease in the OPEX costs, increasing overall profitability to each of the co-hosts bottom line. This case study utilizes a proprietary techno-economic model to demonstrate how utilizing waste streams of a biomass energy plant and/or biorefinery, results in significant reduction in OPEX for both the biomass plants and the agriculture and aquaculture co-hosts. Economically viable Bio-Hubs with favorable environmental and community impacts may prove critical in garnering local and federal government support for pilot programs and more wide-scale adoption, especially for those living in severely economically depressed rural areas where aging industrial sites have been shuttered and local economies devastated.

Keywords: bio-economy, biomass energy, financing, zero-waste

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4129 Environment Problems of Energy Exploitation and Utilization in Nigeria

Authors: Aliyu Mohammed Lawal

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The problems placed on the environment as a result of energy generation and usage in Nigeria is: potential damage to the environment health by CO, CO2, SOx, and NOx, effluent gas emissions and global warming. For instance in the year 2004 in Nigeria energy consumption was 58% oil and 34% natural gas but about 94 million metric tons of CO2 was emitted out of which 64% came from fossil fuels while about 35% came from fuel wood. The findings from this research on how to alleviate these problems are that long term sustainable development solutions should be enhanced globally; energy should be used more rationally renewable energy resources should be exploited and the existing emissions should be controlled to tolerate limits because the increase in energy demand in Nigeria places enormous strain on current energy facilities.

Keywords: effluent gas, emissions, NOx, SOx

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4128 Our Shared Humanity: Bridging the Great Divide of Different Religions

Authors: Aida Raissi, Holly Wong, Elma Raissi

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Background: Connection is a primal need established during infancy and reiterated in many forms of social interaction. When we make connections with others we experience growth, continuity, and gain an understanding of the other’s sense of the world. Feeling socially connected to another individual or community has been shown to increase self-esteem, happiness, and meaning. However, feeling connected to another individual or a specific community may also decrease the motivation to seek connection with more distant individuals or communities. Furthermore, we allow ourselves to interact with those in other communities as apart from us, and in some cases, to dehumanize their existence. Objective: The aim of this project is to bridge the gap between different communities, specifically religious communities and foster feelings of connection as one with all members through the medium of art, specifically photography. Method: Members of all major faiths including Agnosticism, Atheism, Buddhism, Catholicism, Christianity, Ismaili, Jewish, Ja’far Shia, Sunni will be interviewed. Participants will be asked to partake in a brief interview of two parts: A. Answering two questions: 1. What are you most looking forward to in the future, and why? 2. What does religion mean to you? B. Having their picture taken. Our questions aim to elicit individual stories that together, show that we have more in common, than differences, despite our faiths. With the completion of the interviews, the responses will be compiled together and major themes will be identified. Impact: The resulting stories and corresponding individual pictures provide an excellent opportunity to encourage and inspire people to get to know those of other beliefs and values, participate in each other’s communities and develop a sense of oneness within our shared humanity. Knowledge translation: The personal stories, and the common themes they illustrate, will be shared with various audiences, including the general public, academia and targeted groups such as students. This will be done through displaying the photographs and responses at art galleries, conferences, in print and online.

Keywords: social justice, religion, connection, understanding, community

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4127 Global Migration and Endangered Majorities in Europe

Authors: Liav Orgad

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This article challenges one of the most fundamental propositions in the democratic theory that the majority culture is protected merely by the forces of democracy and thus needs no special legal protection. By describing changes in the patterns of migration to Europe, in the face of the European society, and in the world as a whole, the Article demonstrates that the majority culture is no longer automatically protected by the forces of democracy. It claims that the changing reality is not adequately addressed by political theory and human rights law and advances the promotion of a new concept—'cultural majority rights'.

Keywords: European migration, European demography, democratic theory, majority rights, integration

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4126 Estimating CO₂ Storage Capacity under Geological Uncertainty Using 3D Geological Modeling of Unconventional Reservoir Rocks in Block nv32, Shenvsi Oilfield, China

Authors: Ayman Mutahar Alrassas, Shaoran Ren, Renyuan Ren, Hung Vo Thanh, Mohammed Hail Hakimi, Zhenliang Guan

Abstract:

The significant effect of CO₂ on global climate and the environment has gained more concern worldwide. Enhance oil recovery (EOR) associated with sequestration of CO₂ particularly into the depleted oil reservoir is considered the viable approach under financial limitations since it improves the oil recovery from the existing oil reservoir and boosts the relation between global-scale of CO₂ capture and geological sequestration. Consequently, practical measurements are required to attain large-scale CO₂ emission reduction. This paper presents an integrated modeling workflow to construct an accurate 3D reservoir geological model to estimate the storage capacity of CO₂ under geological uncertainty in an unconventional oil reservoir of the Paleogene Shahejie Formation (Es1) in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield, China. In this regard, geophysical data, including well logs of twenty-two well locations and seismic data, were combined with geological and engineering data and used to construct a 3D reservoir geological modeling. The geological modeling focused on four tight reservoir units of the Shahejie Formation (Es1-x1, Es1-x2, Es1-x3, and Es1-x4). The validated 3D reservoir models were subsequently used to calculate the theoretical CO₂ storage capacity in the block Nv32, Shenvsi oilfield. Well logs were utilized to predict petrophysical properties such as porosity and permeability, and lithofacies and indicate that the Es1 reservoir units are mainly sandstone, shale, and limestone with a proportion of 38.09%, 32.42%, and 29.49, respectively. Well log-based petrophysical results also show that the Es1 reservoir units generally exhibit 2–36% porosity, 0.017 mD to 974.8 mD permeability, and moderate to good net to gross ratios. These estimated values of porosity, permeability, lithofacies, and net to gross were up-scaled and distributed laterally using Sequential Gaussian Simulation (SGS) and Simulation Sequential Indicator (SIS) methods to generate 3D reservoir geological models. The reservoir geological models show there are lateral heterogeneities of the reservoir properties and lithofacies, and the best reservoir rocks exist in the Es1-x4, Es1-x3, and Es1-x2 units, respectively. In addition, the reservoir volumetric of the Es1 units in block Nv32 was also estimated based on the petrophysical property models and fund to be between 0.554368

Keywords: CO₂ storage capacity, 3D geological model, geological uncertainty, unconventional oil reservoir, block Nv32

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4125 Sustainable Solutions for Urban Problems: Industrial Container Housing for Endangered Communities in Maranhao, Brazil

Authors: Helida Thays Gomes Soares, Conceicao De Maria Pinheiro Correia, Fabiano Maciel Soares, Kleymer Silva

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There is great discussion around populational increase in urban areas of the global south, and, consequently, the growth of inappropriate housing and the different ways humans have found to solve housing problems around the world. Sao Luís, the capital of the state of Maranhao is a good example. The 1.6 million inhabitant metropole is a colonial tropical city that shelters 22% of the population of Maranhão, brazilian state that still carries the scars of slavery in past centuries. In 2016, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistic found that 20% of Maranhão’s inhabitants were living in houses with external walls made of non-durable materials, like recycled wood, cardboard or soil. Out of this problematic, this study aims to propose interventions not only in the physical structure of irregular housing, but also to serve as a guide to intervene in the way eco-friendly, communitarian housing is seen by extreme poor zones inside metropolitan regions around big cities in the global south. The adaptation and reuse of industrial containers from the Harbor of Itaqui for housing is also an aim of the project. The great volume of discarded industrial containers may be an opportunity to solve housing deficit in the city. That way, through field research in São Luís’ neighborhoods mostly occupied by inappropriate housing, the study intends to raise ethnographical and physical values that help to shape new uses of industrial containers and recycled building materials, bringing the community into the process of shaping new-housing for local housing programs, changing the mindset of a concrete/brick model of building. The study used a general feasibility analysis of local engineers regarding strength of the locally used container for construction purposes, and also researched in-loco the current impressions of risky areas inhabitants of housing, traditional housing and the role they played as city shapers, evaluating their perceptions of what means to live and how their houses represent their personality.

Keywords: container housing, civil construction, housing deficit, participatory design, sustainability

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4124 Challenges and Practical Tips for Advance Care Planning and End-of-Life Communications With Cancer Patients in Global Pandemic

Authors: Poonam Goswami

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Background: The diagnosis of a serious illness like cancer can have an impact on a patient’s emotional well-being and may result in psychological symptoms, anxiety, depression, and loss of control. Advance care planning discussions ensure patients’ values and goals of care, including patients’ freedom to choose their place of death, are respected. Unfortunately, these discussions are often delayed and are not initiated early in patients’ cancer trajectory. As a result, patients’ wishes often remains unknown until the last phase of their life. Evidence suggests that many patients inappropriately receive aggressive treatment near the end of life, which does lead to higher resource utilization, decreased quality of life, and increased cost. Additionally, the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenged the health care systems worldwide and raised important ethical issues, especially regarding the potential need for rationing health care in the context of scarce resources and crisis capacity. The importance of goal concordant care is now even substantially important and is heightened in the context of this pandemic. Problem: Although there is growing evidence on the effects of the ACP on the completion of advanced directives, improved patient and family concordance for preferences for medical care, and receipt of care, there is still a lack of standardized ACP conversation strategies for patients with cancer. Methods: The Key concepts of ACP include (1) assessing patient and family readiness, (2) identifying a surrogate decision maker ( medical power of attorney), (3) exploring patient and family understanding of the disease and treatment options,(4) discussing the values and goals of care, and options for end-of-life care, (5) documenting patient preferences in the medical record, and (6) revisiting the discussions at every change in the treatment plan and /or change in clinical status, including at every hospitalization. Conclusion/Implication for practice: Advance Care Planning (ACP) and end-of-life (EOL) discussions are important for patients, families, and health care providers. Adopting the verbal and nonverbal communication strategies can help overcome the barriers to effective communication on these difficult discussions. ACP with goals of care discussions should not be delayed until the patient is hospitalized.

Keywords: advance care planning, end of life, cancer, global, pandemic

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4123 Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to International Recycling Trade Flow

Authors: Shan Zhang, Peter Suechting

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Predicting trade patterns is critical to decision-making in public and private domains, especially in the current context of trade disputes among major economies. In the past, U.S. recycling has relied heavily on strong demand for recyclable materials overseas. However, starting in 2017, a series of new recycling policies (bans and higher inspection standards) was enacted by multiple countries that were the primary importers of recyclables from the U.S. prior to that point. As the global trade flow of recycling shifts, some new importers, mostly developing countries in South and Southeast Asia, have been overwhelmed by the sheer quantities of scrap materials they have received. As the leading exporter of recyclable materials, the U.S. now has a pressing need to build its recycling industry domestically. With respect to the global trade in scrap materials used for recycling, the interest in this paper is (1) predicting how the export of recyclable materials from the U.S. might vary over time, and (2) predicting how international trade flows for recyclables might change in the future. Focusing on three major recyclable materials with a history of trade, this study uses data-driven and machine learning (ML) algorithms---supervised (shrinkage and tree methods) and unsupervised (neural network method)---to decipher the international trade pattern of recycling. Forecasting the potential trade values of recyclables in the future could help importing countries, to which those materials will shift next, to prepare related trade policies. Such policies can assist policymakers in minimizing negative environmental externalities and in finding the optimal amount of recyclables needed by each country. Such forecasts can also help exporting countries, like the U.S understand the importance of healthy domestic recycling industry. The preliminary result suggests that gravity models---in addition to particular selection macroeconomic predictor variables--are appropriate predictors of the total export value of recyclables. With the inclusion of variables measuring aspects of the political conditions (trade tariffs and bans), predictions show that recyclable materials are shifting from more policy-restricted countries to less policy-restricted countries in international recycling trade. Those countries also tend to have high manufacturing activities as a percentage of their GDP.

Keywords: environmental economics, machine learning, recycling, international trade

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