Search results for: geographical regions

Authors: N. H. Hamid, M. S. Syaref, M. I. Adiyanto, M. Mohamed

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A one-half scale of single-bay two-storey RC frame together with foundation beam and mass concrete block is investigated. Moment resisting RC frame was designed using EC8 by including the provision for seismic loading and detailing of its connection. The objective of the experimental work is to determine seismic behaviour RC frame under in-plane lateral cyclic loading using displacement control method. A double actuator is placed at centre of the mass concrete block at top of frame to represent the seismic load. The percentage drifts are starting from ±0.01% until ±2.25% with increment of ±0.25% drift. The ultimate lateral load of 158.48 kN was recorded at +2.25% drift in pushing and -126.09 kN in pulling direction. From the experimental hysteresis loops, the parameters such as lateral strength capacity, stiffness, ductility and equivalent viscous damping can be obtained. RC frame behaves in the elastic manner followed by inelastic behaviour after reaches the yield limit. The ductility value for this type frame is 4 which lies between the limit 3 and 6. Therefore, it is recommended to build this RC frame for moderate seismic regions under Ductility Class Medium (DCM) such as in Sabah, East Malaysia.

Keywords: single bay, moment resisting RC frame, ductility class medium, inelastic behavior, seismic load

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Authors: Alfredo R. Roa-Henriquez

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This paper is about organizational-level resilience and decision-making in the face of natural hazards. Research on resilience emerged to explain systems’ ability to absorb and recover in the midst of adversity and uncertainty from natural disasters, crises, and other disruptive events. While interest in resilience has accelerated, research multiplied, and the number of policies and implementations of resilience to natural hazards has increased over the last several years, mainly at the level of communities and regions, there has been a dearth of empirical work on resilience at the level of the firm. This paper uses empirical data and a sample selection model to test some hypotheses related to the firm’s dependence on critical resources, the sharing of resources and its economic resilience. The objective is to understand how the sharing of resources among organizations is related to economic resilience. Empirical results that are obtained from a sample of firms affected by Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Harvey indicate that there is unobserved heterogeneity that explains the strategic behavior of firms in the post-disaster and that those firms that are more likely to resource share are also the ones that exhibit higher economic resilience. The impact of property damage on the sharing of resources and economic resilience is explored.

Keywords: economic resilience, resource sharing, critical resources, strategic management

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Sajeeha Ansar, Asad Ali Safi, Sheikh Ziauddin, Ahmad R. Shahid, Faraz Ahsan

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Gliomas are most challenging and aggressive type of tumors which appear in different sizes, locations, and scattered boundaries. CNN is most efficient deep learning approach with outstanding capability of solving image analysis problems. A fully automatic deep learning based 2D-CNN model for brain tumor segmentation is presented in this paper. We used small convolution filters (3 x 3) to make architecture deeper. We increased convolutional layers for efficient learning of complex features from large dataset. We achieved better results by pushing convolutional layers up to 16 layers for HGG model. We achieved reliable and accurate results through fine-tuning among dataset and hyper-parameters. Pre-processing of this model includes generation of brain pipeline, intensity normalization, bias correction and data augmentation. We used the BRATS-2015, and Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) is used as performance measure for the evaluation of the proposed method. Our method achieved DSC score of 0.81 for complete, 0.79 for core, 0.80 for enhanced tumor regions. However, these results are comparable with methods already implemented 2D CNN architecture.

Keywords: brain tumor segmentation, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, HGG

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Authors: C. S. Subhashini, H. L. Premaratne

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Landslides are the most recurrent and prominent disaster in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has been subjected to a number of extreme landslide disasters that resulted in a significant loss of life, material damage, and distress. It is required to explore a solution towards preparedness and mitigation to reduce recurrent losses associated with landslides. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hidden Markov Model (HMMs) are now widely used in many computer applications spanning multiple domains. This research examines the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Model in landslides predictions and the possibility of applying the modern technology to predict landslides in a prominent geographical area in Sri Lanka. A thorough survey was conducted with the participation of resource persons from several national universities in Sri Lanka to identify and rank the influencing factors for landslides. A landslide database was created using existing topographic; soil, drainage, land cover maps and historical data. The landslide related factors which include external factors (Rainfall and Number of Previous Occurrences) and internal factors (Soil Material, Geology, Land Use, Curvature, Soil Texture, Slope, Aspect, Soil Drainage, and Soil Effective Thickness) are extracted from the landslide database. These factors are used to recognize the possibility to occur landslides by using an ANN and HMM. The model acquires the relationship between the factors of landslide and its hazard index during the training session. These models with landslide related factors as the inputs will be trained to predict three classes namely, ‘landslide occurs’, ‘landslide does not occur’ and ‘landslide likely to occur’. Once trained, the models will be able to predict the most likely class for the prevailing data. Finally compared two models with regards to prediction accuracy, False Acceptance Rates and False Rejection rates and This research indicates that the Artificial Neural Network could be used as a strong decision support system to predict landslides efficiently and effectively than Hidden Markov Model.

Keywords: landslides, influencing factors, neural network model, hidden markov model

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Authors: Nidal F. Shilbayeh, Remah W. Al-Khatib, Sameer A. Nooh

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Arabic offline handwriting recognition systems are considered as one of the most challenging topics. Arabic Handwritten Numeral Strings are used to automate systems that deal with numbers such as postal code, banking account numbers and numbers on car plates. Segmentation of connected numerals is the main bottleneck in the handwritten numeral recognition system.  This is in turn can increase the speed and efficiency of the recognition system. In this paper, we proposed algorithms for automatic segmentation and feature extraction of Arabic handwritten numeral strings based on Watershed approach. The algorithms have been designed and implemented to achieve the main goal of segmenting and extracting the string of numeral digits written by hand especially in a courtesy amount of bank checks. The segmentation algorithm partitions the string into multiple regions that can be associated with the properties of one or more criteria. The numeral extraction algorithm extracts the numeral string digits into separated individual digit. Both algorithms for segmentation and feature extraction have been tested successfully and efficiently for all types of numerals.

Keywords: handwritten numerals, segmentation, courtesy amount, feature extraction, numeral recognition

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Authors: Bikramjit Goswami, Manoranjan Kalita

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Active microwave remote sensing is useful in remote sensing applications in cloud-covered regions in the world. Because of high spatial resolution, the spatial variations of land cover can be monitored in greater detail using synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Inundation is studied using the SAR images obtained from Sentinel-1A in both VH and VV polarizations in the present experimental study. The temporal variation of the SAR scattering coefficient values for the area gives a good indication of flood and its boundary. The study area is the district of Morigaon in the state of Assam in India. The period of flood monitoring study is the monsoon season of the year 2017, during which high flood occurred in the state of Assam. The variation of microwave scattering value shows a distinctive indication of flood from the non-flooded period. Frequent monitoring of flood in a large area (10 km x 10 km) using passive microwave sensing and pin-pointing the actual flooded portions (5 m x 5 m) within the flooded area using active microwave sensing, can be a highly useful combination, as revealed by the present experimental results.

Keywords: active remote sensing, flood monitoring, microwave remote sensing, synthetic aperture radar

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Authors: Hala M. El-hanbuli, Mohammed F. Darweesh

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The incidence rates of any tumor vary hugely with geographical location. Basal Cell Carcinoma (BCC) is one of the most common skin cancer that has many histopathologic subtypes. Objective: The aim was to study the histopathological features of BCC cases that were received in the Pathology Department, Kasr El-Aini hospital, Cairo University, Egypt during the period from Jan 2004 to Dec 2013 and to evaluate the clinical characters through the patient data available in the request sheets. Methods: Slides and data of BCC cases were collected from the archives of the pathology department, Kasr El-Aini hospital. Revision of all available slides and histological classification of BCC according to WHO (2006) was done. Results: A total number of 310 cases of BCC representing about 65% from the total number of malignant skin tumors examined during the 10-years duration in the department. The age ranged from 8 to 84 years, the mean age was (55.7 ± 15.5). Most of the patients (85%) were above the age of 40 years. There was a slight male predominance (55%). Ulcerated BCC was the most common gross picture (60%), followed by nodular lesion (30%) and finally the ulcerated nodule (10%). Most of the lesions situated in the high-risk sites (77%) where the nose was the most common site (35%) followed by the periocular area (22%), then periauricular (15%) and finally perioral (5%). No lesion was reported outside the head. The tumor size was less than 2 centimeters in 65% of cases, and from 2-5 centimeters in the lesions' greatest dimension in the rest of cases. Histopathological reclassification revealed that the nodular BCC was the most common (68%) followed by the pigmented nodular (18.75%). The histologic high-risk groups represented (7.5%) about half of them (3.75%) being basosquamous carcinoma. The total incidence for multiple BCC and 2nd primary was 12%. Recurrent BCC represented 8%. All of the recurrent lesions of BCC belonged to the histologic high-risk group. Conclusion: Basal Cell Carcinoma is the most common skin cancer in the 10-year survey. Histopathological diagnosis and classification of BCC cases are essential for the determination of the tumor type and its biological behavior.

Keywords: basal cell carcinoma, high risk, histopathological features, statistical analysis

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Authors: Julian Donovan, Jessica Brealey, Matthew Bowker, Marianne Feghali, Gregory Smith, Lee Thompson, Deborah Henderson

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This article details the development of the X-ray response team (XRT), a service that utilises innovative technology to safely deliver acute and elective imaging and medical assessment service in the pre-hospital and community setting. This involves a partnership between Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust’s Radiology and Emergency Medicine departments and the North East Ambulance Service to create a multidisciplinary prehospital team. The team committed to the delivery of a two-day acute service every week, alongside elective referrals, starting in November 2020. The service was originally made available to a 15-mile radius surrounding the Northumbria Hospital. Due to demand, this was expanded to include the North Tyneside and Northumberland regions. The target population was specified as frail and vulnerable patients, as well as those deemed to benefit from staying in their own environment. Within the first two months, thirty-six percent of patients assessed were able to stay at home due to the provision of off-site imaging. In the future, this service aims to allow patient transfer directly to an appropriate ward or clinic, bypassing the emergency department to improve the patient journey and reduce emergency care pressures.

Keywords: frailty, imaging, pre-hospital, X-ray

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Authors: Agnieszka S. Dzielendziak, Lindsay-Marie Armstrong, Matthew E. Potter, Robert Raja, Pier J. A. Sazio

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Reducing carbon dioxide, CO₂, is one of the greatest global challenges. Conversion of CO₂ for utilisation across synthetic fuel, pharmaceutical, and agrochemical industries offers a promising option, yet requires significant research to understanding the complex multiscale processes involved. To experimentally understand and optimize such processes at that catalytic sites and exploring the impact of the process at reactor scale, is too expensive. Computational methods offer significant insight and flexibility but require a more detailed multi-scale approach which is a significant challenge in itself. This work introduces a computational approach which incorporates detailed catalytic models, taken from experimental investigations, into a larger-scale computational flow dynamics framework. The reactor-scale species transport approach is modified near the catalytic walls to determine the influence of catalytic clustering regions. This coupling approach enables more accurate modelling of velocity, pressures, temperatures, species concentrations and near-wall surface characteristics which will ultimately enable the impact of overall reactor design on chemical conversion performance.

Keywords: catalysis, CCU, CO₂, multi-scale model

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Authors: Abdelhafez Abdel Hafez

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Dependency theory was developed since 1950s, with economic concerns. It divided the world into two parts, the states of the peripheral (third world countries) and the states of the core (the developed capitalist countries). Another perspective developed to the theory with the implementation of the idea of semi-peripheral states in the new world order. With these divisions (core, peripheral, semi-peripheral) this study aims to develop a concept from the perspective of dependency theory, to understand the nature of the relationship of the U.S. with the Middle East Regions through its relation with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The tested countries (Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey) are seeking a foothold and influential role in the region. The paper argued that the U.S. directs its policies toward the region, in the way to guarantee no country of the region will be in semi-peripheral level (that could create competitions or danger on the U.S. interest). Therefore, U.S. policies in the region have varied from declaring war to diplomatic channels and sometimes ignoring. The paper is based on the dependency theory, and other international relations theories used to study the Middle East in the international context.

Keywords: dependency, hegemony, imperialism, middle east

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Authors: Fatima S. Mohammed, Derrick Crump

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Harmattan, a dusty weather condition characterized by thick smog-like suspended particles and dust storm are the peculiar events that happen during ¾ of the year in the Sahelian regions including Damaturu Town, Nigeria), resulting in heavy dust deposits especially indoors. The inhabitants of the Damaturu community are always inflicted with different ailments; respiratory tract infections, asthma, gastrointestinal infections and different ailments associated with the dusty nature of the immediate environment. This brought the need to investigate the nature of the settled indoor dust. Vacuum cleaner bag dust was collected from indoor of some Nigerian and UK homes, as well as outdoors including during seasonal dusty weather event (Harmattan and Storm dust). The dust was sieved, and the (150 µm size) particles were examined using scanning electron microscope (SEM). The physical characterization of the settled dust samples has revealed the various shapes and sizes, and elemental composition of the dust samples is indicating that some of the dust fractions were the respirable fractions and also the dust contained PM10 to PM 2.5 fractions with possible health effects. The elemental compositions were indicative of the diverse nature of the dust particle sources, which showed dust as a complex matrix.

Keywords: indoor dust, Harmattan dust, SEM, health effects

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Authors: Benedicta Asante, Catherine Trask, Brenna Bath

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Background: Waste Collection Workers’ (WCWs) activities contribute greatly to the recycling sector and are an important component of the waste management industry. As the recycling sector evolves, there is the increase in reports of injuries, particularly for common and debilitating musculoskeletal disorders such as low back disorder (LBD). WCWs are likely exposed to diverse work-related hazards that could contribute to LBD. However, there is currently no summary of the state of knowledge on the prevalence and risk factors of LBD within this workforce. Method: A comprehensive search was conducted in Ovid Medline, EMBASE, and Global Health e-publications with search term categories ‘low back disorder’ and ‘waste collection workers’. Two reviewers screened articles at title, abstract, and full-text stages. Data were extracted on study design, sampling strategy, socio-demographics, geographical region, and exposure definition, the definition of LBD, response rate, statistical techniques, LBD prevalence and risk factors. The risk of bias was assessed with a standardized tool. Results: The search of three databases generated 79 studies. Thirty-two studies met the study inclusion criteria for both title and abstract; only thirteen full-text articles met the study criteria and underwent data extraction. The majority of articles reported a 12-month prevalence of LBD between 16-74%. Although none of the included studies quantified relationships between risk factors and LBD, the suggested risk factors for LBD among WCWs included: awkward posture; lifting; pulling; pushing; repetitive motions; work duration; and physical loads. Conclusion: LBD is a major occupational health issue among WCWs. In light of these risks and future growth in this industry, further research should focus on the investigation of risk factors, with more focus on ergonomic exposure assessment, and LBD prevention efforts.

Keywords: low back pain, scavenger, waste pickers, waste collection workers

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Authors: Vanessa Cho, Janet Hsiao, Nigel King, Robert Anthonappa

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Background: The personal protective equipment (PPE) requirements for health care workers (HCWs) have changed significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To ascertain, using eye-tracking technology, what children notice the most when seeing HCWs in various PPE. Design: A Tobii nano pro-eye-tracking camera tracked 156 children's visual attention while they viewed photographs of HCWs in various PPEs. Eye Movement analysis with Hidden Markov Models (EMHMM) was employed to analyse 624 recordings using two approaches, namely (i) data-driven where children's fixation determined the regions of interest (ROIs), and (ii) fixed ROIs where the investigators predefined the ROIs. Results: Two significant eye movement patterns, namely distributed(85.2%) and selective(14.7%), were identified(P<0.05). Most children fixated primarily on the face regardless of the different PPEs. Children fixated equally on all PPE images in the distributed pattern, while a strong preference for unmasked faces was evident in the selective pattern (P<0.01). Conclusion: Children as young as 2.5 years used a top-down visual search behaviour and demonstrated their face processing ability. Most children did not show a strong visual preference for a specific PPE, while a minority preferred PPE with distinct facial features, namely without masks and loupes.

Keywords: COVID-19, PPE, dentistry, pediatric

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Ozgu Turgut

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Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. Although in recent years, the efforts to make the transition to dripping or spring watering systems instead of using surface watering started to pay off. It is also known that this transition is not necessarily translated into an increase in the capacity dedicated to other water consumption channels such as city water or power usage. In order to control and allocate the water resource more purposefully, new watering systems have to be used with monitoring abilities that can limit the usage capacity for each farm. In this study, a decision support model which relies on a bi-objective stochastic linear optimization is proposed, which takes crop yield and price volatility into account. The model generates annual planting plans as well as water usage limits for each farmer in the region while taking the total value (i.e., profit) of the overall harvest. The mathematical model is solved using the L-shaped method optimally. The decision support model can be especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's planting and water incomes and expenses. That is why not only a single optimum but also a set of representative solutions from the Pareto set is generated with the proposed approach.

Keywords: decision support, farming, water, tactical planning, optimization, stochastic, pareto

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Authors: Sohail Ahmad, Inayat Kaleem

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Federally Administered Tribal Area(FATA) of Pakistan is one of the most neglected regions in the world as far as development is concerned. It has been the hub of all sorts of illegal activities including militancy and export of terrorism. Therefore, it became inevitable for the government of Pakistan to take action against militants through military operations. Small and large scale military operations are being taken against the non-state actors in FATA with continuity. Over the years, hundreds of thousands have been displaced from the tribal areas of the country. Moreover, military operation Zarb-e-Azb has been launched in North Waziristan Agency in June 2014 to counter militancy across the Af-Pak border region. Though successful in curbing militancy, the operation has displaced around 0.5 million people from the area. Most of them opt to take shelter in the government installed shelter camps, some of them take refuge outside tent villages in the country while some of them prefer to cross into Afghanistan rather their own country Pakistan. This paper will evaluate how the influx of these internally displaced persons in the country is influencing the socio-economic situation of not only the displaced but of the hosting areas as well. Secondly, attention would be given to gauge the impact of such a huge number of displaced population on the law and order and security situation in the host areas.

Keywords: Af-Pak, federally administered tribal area, IDPs, internal displacement, Pakistan

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Authors: Joseph Wolff, Jeffrey Eilbott

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Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) are a spectrum of social disorders characterized by deficits in social communication, verbal ability, and interaction that can vary in severity. In recent years, researchers have used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to help detect how neural patterns in individuals with ASD differ from those of neurotypical (NT) controls for classification purposes. This study analyzed the classification of ASD within males and females using functional MRI data. Functional connectivity (FC) correlations among brain regions were used as feature inputs for machine learning algorithms. Analysis was performed on 558 cases from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE) I dataset. When trained specifically on females, the algorithm underperformed in classifying the ASD subset of our testing population. Although the subject size was relatively smaller in the female group, the manual matching of both male and female training groups helps explain the algorithm’s bias, indicating the altered sex abnormalities in functional brain networks compared to typically developing peers. These results highlight the importance of taking sex into account when considering how generalizations of findings on males with ASD apply to females.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, machine learning, neuroimaging, sex differences

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Authors: Meziani Samir, Moussi Abderrahmane, Chaouchi Sofiane, Guendouzi Awatif, Djema Oussama

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Laser doping has a large potential for integration into silicon solar cell technologies. The ability to process local, heavily diffused regions in a self-aligned manner can greatly simplify processing sequences for the fabrication of selective emitter. The choice of laser parameters for a laser doping process with 532nm is investigated. Solid state lasers with different power and speed were used for laser doping. In this work, the aim is the formation of selective emitter solar cells with a reduced number of technological steps. In order to have a highly doped localized emitter region, we used a 532 nm laser doping. Note that this region will receive the metallization of the Ag grid by screen printing. For this, we use SOLIDWORKS software to design a single type of pattern for square silicon cells. Sheet resistances, phosphorus doping concentration and silicon bulk lifetimes of irradiated samples are presented. Additionally, secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS) profiles of the laser processed samples were acquired. Scanning electron microscope and optical microscope images of laser processed surfaces at different parameters are shown and compared.

Keywords: laser doping, selective emitter, silicon, solar cells

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Authors: Seada Hussen, Frie Ayalew

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Integrating different energy resources, like solar PV and hydro, is used to ensure reliable power to rural communities like Hara village in Ethiopia. Hybrid power system offers power supply for rural villages by providing an alternative supply for the intermittent nature of renewable energy resources. The intermittent nature of renewable energy resources is a challenge to electrifying rural communities in a sustainable manner with solar resources. Major rural villages in Ethiopia are suffering from a lack of electrification, that cause our people to suffer deforestation, travel for long distance to fetch water, and lack good services like clinic and school sufficiently. The main objective of this project is to provide a balanced, stable, reliable supply for Hara village, Ethiopia using solar power with a pumped hydro energy storage system. The design of this project starts by collecting data from villages and taking solar irradiance data from NASA. In addition to this, geographical arrangement and location are also taken into consideration. After collecting this, all data analysis and cost estimation or optimal sizing of the system and comparison of solar with pumped hydro and solar with battery storage system is done using Homer Software. And since solar power only works in the daytime and pumped hydro works at night time and also at night and morning, both load will share to cover the load demand; this need controller designed to control multiple switch and scheduling in this project fuzzy logic controller is used to control this scenario. The result of the simulation shows that solar with pumped hydro energy storage system achieves good results than with a battery storage system since the comparison is done considering storage reliability, cost, storage capacity, life span, and efficiency.

Keywords: pumped hydro storage, solar energy, solar PV, battery energy storage, fuzzy logic controller

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Adrián D. García-Soto, Alejandro Hernández-Martínez, Jesús G. Valdés-Vázquez, Reyna A. Vizguerra-Alvarez

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Reinforced concrete bridges designed by code are intended to achieve target reliability levels adequate for the geographical environment where the code is applicable. Several methods can be used to estimate such reliability levels. Many of them require the establishment of an explicit limit state function (LSF). When such LSF is not available as a close-form expression, the simulation techniques are often employed. The simulation methods are computing intensive and time consuming. Note that if the reliability of real bridges designed by code is of interest, numerical schemes, the finite element method (FEM) or computational mechanics could be required. In these cases, it can be quite difficult (or impossible) to establish a close-form of the LSF, and the simulation techniques may be necessary to compute reliability levels. To overcome the need for a large number of simulations when no explicit LSF is available, the point estimate method (PEM) could be considered as an alternative. It has the advantage that only the probabilistic moments of the random variables are required. However, in the PEM, fitting of the resulting moments of the LSF to a probability density function (PDF) is needed. In the present study, a very simple alternative which allows the assessment of the reliability levels when no explicit LSF is available and without the need of extensive simulations is employed. The alternative includes the use of the PEM, and its applicability is shown by assessing reliability levels of reinforced concrete bridges in Mexico when a numerical scheme is required. Comparisons with results by using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique are included. To overcome the problem of approximating the probabilistic moments from the PEM to a PDF, a well-known distribution is employed. The approach mixes the PEM and other classic reliability method (first order reliability method, FORM). The results in the present study are in good agreement whit those computed with the MCS. Therefore, the alternative of mixing the reliability methods is a very valuable option to determine reliability levels when no close form of the LSF is available, or if numerical schemes, the FEM or computational mechanics are employed.

Keywords: structural reliability, reinforced concrete bridges, combined approach, point estimate method, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Vishal Das, Tianyi Mao, Zhicheng Geng, Carmen Flores, Diego Pelloso, Fang Wang

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Accurate sell-in and sell-out forecasting is a ubiquitous problem in the retail industry. It is an important element of any demand planning activity. As a global food and beverage company, Nestlé has hundreds of products in each geographical location that they operate in. Each product has its sell-in and sell-out time series data, which are forecasted on a weekly and monthly scale for demand and financial planning. To address this challenge, Nestlé Chilein collaboration with Amazon Machine Learning Solutions Labhas developed their in-house solution of using machine learning models for forecasting. Similar products are combined together such that there is one model for each product category. In this way, the models learn from a larger set of data, and there are fewer models to maintain. The solution is scalable to all product categories and is developed to be flexible enough to include any new product or eliminate any existing product in a product category based on requirements. We show how we can use the machine learning development environment on Amazon Web Services (AWS) to explore a set of forecasting models and create business intelligence dashboards that can be used with the existing demand planning tools in Nestlé. We explored recent deep learning networks (DNN), which show promising results for a variety of time series forecasting problems. Specifically, we used a DeepAR autoregressive model that can group similar time series together and provide robust predictions. To further enhance the accuracy of the predictions and include domain-specific knowledge, we designed an ensemble approach using DeepAR and XGBoost regression model. As part of the ensemble approach, we interlinked the sell-out and sell-in information to ensure that a future sell-out influences the current sell-in predictions. Our approach outperforms the benchmark statistical models by more than 50%. The machine learning (ML) pipeline implemented in the cloud is currently being extended for other product categories and is getting adopted by other geomarkets.

Keywords: sell-in and sell-out forecasting, demand planning, DeepAR, retail, ensemble machine learning, time-series

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Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka

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One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.

Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa

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Authors: A. Shahsavari, M. Nili-Ahmadabadi

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This paper presents an innovative one-dimensional optimization of a transonic compressor based on the radial equilibrium theory by means of increasing blade loading. Firstly, the rotor blade of the transonic compressor is redesigned based on the constant span-wise deHaller number and diffusion. The code is applied to extract compressor meridional plane and blade to blade geometry containing rotor and stator in order to design blade three-dimensional view. A structured grid is generated for the numerical domain of fluid. Finer grids are used for regions near walls to capture boundary layer effects and behavior. RANS equations are solved by finite volume method for rotating zones (rotor) and stationary zones (stator). The experimental data, available for the performance map of NASA Rotor67, is used to validate the results of simulations. Then, the capability of the design method is validated by CFD that is capable of predicting the performance map. The numerical results of new geometry show about 19% increase in pressure ratio and 11% improvement in overall efficiency of the transonic stage; however, the design point mass flow rate of the new compressor is 5.7% less than that of the original compressor.

Keywords: deHaller number, one dimensional design, radial equilibrium, transonic compressor

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Donna M. Morrison, Lambert Chester, Coretta A. N. Samuels, David R. Ledoux

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A survey was conducted in the five rice-growing regions in Guyana to determine the presence of aflatoxins in multiple fractions of rice in June/October 2015 growing season. The fractions were paddy, steamed paddy, cargo rice, white rice and parboiled rice. Samples were analyzed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography. A subset of the samples was further analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for concurrence. All analyses were conducted at the University of Missouri, USA. Of the 186 samples tested, 16 had aflatoxin concentrations greater than 20 ppb the recommended limit for aflatoxins in food according to the United States Food and Drug Administration. An additional three samples had aflatoxin B₁ concentrations greater than the European Union Commission maximum levels for aflatoxin B₁ in rice at 5 µg/kg and total aflatoxins (B₁, B₂, G₁ and G₂) at 10 µg/kg. The survey indicates that there is no widespread aflatoxin problem in rice in Guyana. The incidence of aflatoxins appears to be localized.

Keywords: aflatoxin, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), rice fractions

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Authors: Mohammed Aliyu, Kazunori Iwabuchi, Ibrahim Shaba Mohammed, Abubakar Sadeeq Mohammed, Solomon Musa Dauda, Zinash Delebo Osunde

Abstract:

Hydrothermal carbonization (HTC) is recognised as a low temperature and effective technique for the conversion of biomass to solid biofuel. In this study, the effect of process temperature and biomass-to-water ratio (B/W) on the fuel properties of hydrochar produced from wood shavings was investigated. HTC was conducted in an autoclave using reaction temperature of 230 °C and 260 °C for 20 minutes with B/W ratio of 0.11 to 0.43. The produced hydrochars were characterised by the mass yield (MY), higher heating value (HHV), proximate and ultimate properties. The results showed that the properties of the hydrochars improved with increasing process temperature and B/W ratio. The higher heating value (HHV) increased to 26.74 MJ/kg as the severity of the reaction was increased to the process temperature of 260 °C. Also, the atomic H/C and O/C ratios of hydrochars produced at 230 °C and 260 °C were closed to the regions of a peat and lignite on the plotted van Krevelen diagram. Hence, the produced hydrochar has a promising potential as a sustainable solid biofuel for energy application.

Keywords: wood shavings, biomass/water ratio, thermochemical conversion, hydrothermal carbonization, hydrochar

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Authors: Aziz Larbi, Widad Sadok

Abstract:

In Morocco, the mountainous regions extend over about 26% of the national territory where 30% of the total population live. They contain opportunities for agriculture, forestry, pastureland and mining. The production systems in these zones are characterised by crop diversification. However, these areas have become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To understand these effects in relation to the population living in these areas, a study was carried out in the zone of Taliouine, in the Anti-Atlas. The vulnerability of crop productions to climate change was analysed and the different ways of adaptation adopted by farmers were identified. The work was done on saffron, the most profitable crop in the target area even though it requires much water. Our results show that the majority of the farmers surveyed had noticed variations in the climate of the region: irregularity of precipitation leading to a decrease in quantity and an uneven distribution throughout the year; rise in temperature; reduction in the cold period and less snow. These variations had impacts on the cropping system of saffron and its productivity. To cope with these effects, the farmers adopted various strategies: better management and use of water; diversification of agricultural activities; increase in the contribution of non-agricultural activities to their gross income; and seasonal migration.

Keywords: climate change, Taliouine, saffron, perceptions, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Khries Sawsan

Abstract:

the phenomenon of urbanization is considered as one of the most important tourism resources that differ from one country to another and from one region to another in the same country. Our concern in tourism accommodation is explained by the fact that their location is directly related to the movement to tourist sites .Besides, these constructions comport security considered as the most important motivation for tourists in their choice of any destination. Hotels are the most representative expression of tourism. This is due to their physical prominence in the landscape and being the sole urban component totally unique to tourism. This study sheds light on the impact of tourism development on the spatial pattern in Jordan. It describes the linkages between existing tourism development policies and the spatial development patterns that have occurred as a result throughout Jordan, particularly looking at the impact that tourism has had on the physical environment of major tourism destinations. It puts an illustrative plan of the impact of the augmentation of tourism accommodations in Jordan in the past 40 years ago. The findings of this study help us to understand better the operation of Jordan’ dynamic changes in the location An intensive analysis is then applied on a representative case study in three regions: Amman, Petra and Aqaba. The study proceeds from an historical perspective to, show the evolution of the current development patterns an increase of tourism’s impact on spatial, in the presence of factors as political and economic stability, is expected.

Keywords: spatial patterns, urbanisation, spatial transformations, tourism planning, Jordan

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Authors: Yuntao Liu, Lei Wang, Haoran Xia

Abstract:

Machine learning has shown extensive applications in the development of classification models for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) using neural image data. This paper proposes a fusion multi-modal classification network based on a graph neural network. First, the brain is segmented into 116 regions of interest using a medical segmentation template (AAL, Anatomical Automatic Labeling). The image features of sMRI and the signal features of fMRI are extracted, which build the node and edge embedding representations of the brain map. Then, we construct a dynamically updated brain map neural network and propose a method based on a dynamic brain map adjacency matrix update mechanism and learnable graph to further improve the accuracy of autism diagnosis and recognition results. Based on the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange I dataset(ABIDE I), we reached a prediction accuracy of 74% between ASD and TD subjects. Besides, to study the biomarkers that can help doctors analyze diseases and interpretability, we used the features by extracting the top five maximum and minimum ROI weights. This work provides a meaningful way for brain disorder identification.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, brain map, supervised machine learning, graph network, multimodal data, model interpretability

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Authors: Md. Enamul Haque, Abdullah Al Kaisan, Mahmudur R. Saniat, Aminur Rahman

Abstract:

In this paper, we have implemented both sequential and parallel version of fractal image compression algorithms using CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) programming model for parallelizing the program in Graphics Processing Unit for medical images, as they are highly similar within the image itself. There is several improvements in the implementation of the algorithm as well. Fractal image compression is based on the self similarity of an image, meaning an image having similarity in majority of the regions. We take this opportunity to implement the compression algorithm and monitor the effect of it using both parallel and sequential implementation. Fractal compression has the property of high compression rate and the dimensionless scheme. Compression scheme for fractal image is of two kinds, one is encoding and another is decoding. Encoding is very much computational expensive. On the other hand decoding is less computational. The application of fractal compression to medical images would allow obtaining much higher compression ratios. While the fractal magnification an inseparable feature of the fractal compression would be very useful in presenting the reconstructed image in a highly readable form. However, like all irreversible methods, the fractal compression is connected with the problem of information loss, which is especially troublesome in the medical imaging. A very time consuming encoding process, which can last even several hours, is another bothersome drawback of the fractal compression.

Keywords: accelerated GPU, CUDA, parallel computing, fractal image compression

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Authors: Karen Lesley Webster, Charles Crothers

Abstract:

As the population of the Auckland region in New Zealand becomes markedly more super-diverse, the question of fair and effective representation becomes increasingly relevant. This paper explores who stood and who was elected to local office, in the three Auckland triennial local elections, following the 2010 amalgamation of the regions local authorities. It addresses the question of how representative the electoral candidates and elected members of local government in Auckland were of the diverse population they serve. A quantitative analysis of the gender and ethnicity of the Auckland Council candidates and elected members in 2013, 2016, and 2019 triennial elections was undertaken, and the gender and ethnicity compared with that of the Auckland population. Our findings show that under the two-tiered shared governance model established by the Local Government Act (Auckland Council) 2009, electoral candidates have become more ethnically and gender representative of Aucklanders at the local level, while at the regional level, divergence from predominantly New Zealand European, male local representatives is emerging, albeit with less pace. These findings warrant further investigation, but overall, the research presents a cautiously optimistic picture of Auckland local democracy in terms of increasing representational diversity.

Keywords: local government, representation, diversity, gender, ethnicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 297