Search results for: robust penalized regression

Authors: Randy Price, Harbir Antil, Rainald Löhner, Fumiya Togashi

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Chemically reacting flows are common in engineering applications such as hypersonic flow, combustion, explosions, manufacturing process, and environmental assessments. The number of reactions in combustion simulations can exceed 100, making a large number of flow and combustion problems beyond the capabilities of current supercomputers. Motivated by this, deep neural networks (DNNs) will be introduced with the goal of eventually replacing the existing chemistry software packages with DNNs. The DNNs used in this paper are motivated by the Residual Neural Network (ResNet) architecture. In the continuum limit, ResNets become an optimization problem constrained by an ODE. Such a feature allows the use of ODE control techniques to enhance the DNNs. In this work, DNNs are constructed, which update the species un at the nᵗʰ timestep to uⁿ⁺¹ at the n+1ᵗʰ timestep. Parallel DNNs are trained for each species, taking in uⁿ as input and outputting one component of uⁿ⁺¹. These DNNs are applied to multiple species and reactions common in chemically reacting flows such as H₂-O₂ reactions. Experimental results show that the DNNs are able to accurately replicate the dynamics in various situations and in the presence of errors.

Keywords: chemical reacting flows, computational fluid dynamics, ODEs, residual neural networks, ResNets

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Authors: Pradyumna Mohanty

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The paper aims to explore whether accounting information of Indian companies in the Steel sector are value relevant or not. Ohlson’s model which usually takes into consideration book value per share (BV) and earnings per share (EARN) has been used and the same has been expanded to include two more variables such as cash flow from operations (CFO) and return on equity (ROE). The data were collected from CMIE-Prowess data base in respect of BSE-listed steel companies and the time frame spans from 2010 to 2014. OLS regression has been used to test the value relevance of these accounting numbers. Results indicate that both CFO and BV are having significant influence on the stock price in two out of five years of study. But, BV is emerging as the most significant and highly value relevant of all the four variables during the entire period of study.

Keywords: value relevance, accounting information, book value per share, earnings per share

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Authors: Jose Funes, Jeff Sauer, Laixiang Sun

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This research examines determinants of multifamily housing development and spillovers in the District of Columbia. A range of socioeconomic factors related to income distribution, productivity, and land use policies are thought to influence the development in contemporary U.S. multifamily housing markets. The analysis leverages data from the American Community Survey to construct panel datasets spanning from 2010 to 2019. Using spatial regression, we identify several socioeconomic measures and land use policies both positively and negatively associated with new housing supply. We contextualize housing estimates related to race in relation to uneven development in the contemporary D.C. housing supply.

Keywords: neighborhood effect, sorting, spatial spillovers, multifamily housing

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: Juanee Cilliers

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Urban citizens have come to expect more from their cities, demanding optimal conditions for business creativity and professional development, along with efficient, sustainable transportation and energy systems that feed robust economic development and healthy job markets. Urban public spaces are an important part of the urban environment, creating the framework for public life and quality thereof. The transformation of space into successful public places are crucial in this regard as planning must safeguard flexibility towards future changes, whilst simultaneously be capable of acting on short-term demands in order to address the complexity of public spaces within urban areas. This research evaluated two case studies of different cities in Belgium which successfully transformed spaces into lively public places. The transformation was illustrated and evaluated by means of visual analyses and space usage analyses of the original and redesigned space, along with the experience and value that the redesign brought to the area. Selected design elements were identified and evaluated based on the role in the transformation process, in an attempt to draw conclusions with regards to theory-practice relevance and to guide the transformation of space to place of (similar) public spaces.

Keywords: space, place, transformation, case studies

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Rodrigo De A. Ferrazza, Henry D. M. Garcia, Viviana H. V. Aristizabal, Camilla De S. Nogueira, Cecilia J. Verissimo, Jose Roberto Sartori, Roberto Sartori, Joao Carlos P. Ferreira

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Environmental factors adversely influence sustainability in livestock production system. Dairy herds are the most affected by heat stress among livestock industries. This clearly implies in development of new strategies for mitigating heat, which should be based on physiological and metabolic adaptations of the animal. In this study, we incorporated the effect of climate variables and heat exposure time on the thermoregulatory responses in order to clarify the adaptive mechanisms for bovine heat dissipation under intense thermal stress induced experimentally in climate chamber. Non-lactating Holstein cows were contemporaneously and randomly assigned to thermoneutral (TN; n=12) or heat stress (HS; n=12) treatments during 16 days. Vaginal temperature (VT) was measured every 15 min with a microprocessor-controlled data logger (HOBO®, Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne, MA, USA) attached to a modified vaginal controlled internal drug release insert (Sincrogest®, Ourofino, Brazil). Rectal temperature (RT), respiratory rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) were measured twice a day (0700 and 1500h) and dry matter intake (DMI) was estimated daily. The ambient temperature and air relative humidity were 25.9±0.2°C and 73.0±0.8%, respectively for TN, and 36.3± 0.3°C and 60.9±0.9%, respectively for HS. Respiratory rate of HS cows increased immediately after exposure to heat and was higher (76.02±1.70bpm; P<0.001) than TN (39.70±0.71bpm), followed by rising of RT (39.87°C±0.07 for HS versus 38.56±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001) and VT (39.82±0.10°C for HS versus 38.26±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001). A diurnal pattern was detected, with higher (P<0.01) afternoon temperatures than morning and this effect was aggravated for HS cows. There was decrease (P<0.05) of HR for HS cows (62.13±0.99bpm) compared to TN (66.23±0.79bpm), but the magnitude of the differences was not the same over time. From the third day, there was a decrease of DMI for HS in attempt to maintain homeothermy, while TN cows increased DMI (8.27kg±0.33kg d-1 for HS versus 14.03±0.29kg d-1 for TN; P<0.001). By regression analysis, RT and RR better reflected the response of cows to changes in the Temperature Humidity Index and the effect of climate variables from the previous day to influence the physiological parameters and DMI was more important than the current day, with ambient temperature the most important factor. Comparison between acute (0 to 3 days) and chronic (13 to 16 days) exposure to heat stress showed decreasing of the slope of the regression equations for RR and DMI, suggesting an adaptive adjustment, however with no change for RT. In conclusion, intense heat stress exerted strong influence on the thermoregulatory mechanisms, but the acclimation process was only partial.

Keywords: acclimation, bovine, climate chamber, hyperthermia, thermoregulation

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Authors: Zahra Okba, Hassan El Ouizgani

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Anticipating an individual’s behavior to the environmental factors allows for having relevant ecological forecasts. The Dynamic Energy Budget model facilitates prediction, and it is mechanically dependent on biology to abiotic factors but is generally field verified under relatively stable physical conditions. Dynamic Energy Budget Theory (DEB) is a robust framework that can link the individual state to environmental factors, and in our work, we have tested its ability to account for variability by looking at model predictions in the Agadir Bay, which is characterized by a semi-arid climate and temperature is strongly influenced by the trade winds front and nutritional availability. From previous works in our laboratory, we have collected different biological DEB model parameters of Mytilus galloprovincialis mussel in Agadir Bay. We mathematically formulated the equations that make up the DEB model and then adjusted our analytical functions with the observed biological data of our local species. We also assumed the condition of constant immersion, and then we integrated the details of the tidal cycles to calculate the metabolic depression at low tide. Our results are quite satisfactory concerning the length and shape of the shell in one part and the gonadosomatic index in another part.

Keywords: dynamic energy budget, mussels, mytilus galloprovincialis, agadir bay, DEB model

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Authors: Thohidul Islam, Md. Hamidul Haque, Robin Kumar Biswas

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Floods are one of the deadliest natural disasters which are very complex to model; however, machine learning is opening the door for more reliable and accurate flood prediction. In this research, a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) is developed to model the rainfall-water level relation, in a subtropical monsoon climatic region of the Bangladesh-India border. Our experiments show promising empirical results to forecast the water level for 1 day lead time. Our best performing MLP model achieves 98.7% coefficient of determination with lower model complexity which surpasses previously reported results on similar forecasting problems.

Keywords: flood forecasting, machine learning, multilayer perceptron network, regression

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Authors: Lidia Sanchis-Marco, Antonio Rubia, Pedro Serrano

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This paper studies the informational content of pricing errors in the term structure of sovereign CDS spreads. The residuals from a non-arbitrage model are employed to construct a Price discrepancy estimate, or noise measure. The noise estimate is understood as an indicator of market distress and reflects frictions such as illiquidity. Empirically, the noise measure is computed for an extensive panel of CDS spreads. Our results reveal an important fraction of systematic risk is not priced in default swap contracts. When projecting the noise measure onto a set of financial variables, the panel-data estimates show that greater price discrepancies are systematically related to a higher level of offsetting transactions of CDS contracts. This evidence suggests that arbitrage capital flows exit the marketplace during time of distress, and this consistent with a market segmentation among investors and arbitrageurs where professional arbitrageurs are particularly ineffective at bringing prices to their fundamental values during turbulent periods. Our empirical findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry.

Keywords: credit default swaps, noise measure, illiquidity, capital arbitrage

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Authors: Heba Abdelmotaal, Magdy Abdel-Kader

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Purpose: This study explores whether a firm’s effective political risk management is preventing real and accrual earnings management . Design/methodology/approach: Based on a sample of 130 firms operating in Egypt during the period 2008-2013, two hypotheses are tested using the panel data regression models. Findings: The empirical findings indicate a significant relation between real and accrual earnings management and political risk. Originality/value: This paper provides a statistically evidence on the effects of the political risk management failure on the mangers’ engagement in the real and accrual earnings management practices, and its impact on the firm’s performance.

Keywords: political risk, risk management failure, real activities manipulation, accrual earnings management

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Authors: Chen Wang, Chun Liang

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Microsatellite instability (MSI) is characterized by high degree of polymorphism in microsatellite (MS) length due to a deficiency in mismatch repair (MMR) system. MSI is associated with several tumor types and its status can be considered as an important indicator for tumor prognostic. Conventional clinical diagnosis of MSI examines PCR products of a panel of MS markers using electrophoresis (MSI-PCR) which is laborious, time consuming, and less reliable. MSIpred, a python 2 package for automatic classification of MSI was released by this study. It computes important somatic mutation features from files in mutation annotation format (MAF) generated from paired tumor-normal exome sequencing data, subsequently using these to predict tumor MSI status with a support vector machine (SVM) classifier trained by MAF files of 1074 tumors belonging to four types. Evaluation of MSIpred on an independent 358-tumor test set achieved overall accuracy of over 98% and area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.967. These results indicated that MSIpred is a robust pan-cancer MSI classification tool and can serve as a complementary diagnostic to MSI-PCR in MSI diagnosis.

Keywords: microsatellite instability, pan-cancer classification, somatic mutation, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: Ebenezer Kwesi Armah-Ansah, Kenneth Fosu Oteng, Esther Selasi Avinu, Eugene Budu, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw

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Background: Maternal mortality, particularly in Benin, is a major public health concern in Sub-Saharan Africa. To provide a positive pregnancy experience and reduce maternal morbidities, all pregnant women must get appropriate and timely prenatal support. However, many pregnant women in developing countries, including Benin, begin antenatal care late. There is a paucity of empirical literature on the prevalence and predictors of early antenatal care visits in Benin. As a result, the purpose of this study is to investigate the prevalence and predictors of early antenatal care visits among women of productive age in Benin. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the 2017/2018 Benin Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data. The study involved 6,919 eligible women. Data analysis was conducted using Stata version 14.2 for Mac OS. We adopted a multilevel logistic regression to examine the predictors of early ANC visits in Benin. The results were presented as odds ratios (ORs) associated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and p-value <0.05 to determine the significant associations. Results: The prevalence of early ANC visits among pregnant women in Benin was 57.03% [95% CI: 55.41-58.64]. In the final multilevel logistic regression, early ANC visit was higher among women aged 30-34 [aOR=1.60, 95% CI=1.17-2.18] compared to those aged 15-19, women with primary education [aOR=1.22, 95% CI=1.06-142] compared to the non-educated women, women who were covered by health insurance [aOR=3.03, 95% CI=1.35-6.76], women without a big problem in getting the money needed for treatment [aOR=1.31, 95% CI=1.16-1.49], distance to the health facility, not a big problem [aOR=1.23, 95% CI=1.08-1.41], and women whose partners had secondary/higher education [aOR=1.35, 95% CI=1.15-1.57] compared with those who were not covered by health insurance, had big problem in getting money needed for treatment, distance to health facility is a big problem and whose partners had no education respectively. However, women who had four or more births [aOR=0.60, 95% CI=0.48-0.74] and those in Atacora Region [aOR=0.50, 95% CI=0.37-0.68] had lower odds of early ANC visit. Conclusion: This study revealed a relatively high prevalence of early ANC visits among women of reproductive age in Benin. Women's age, educational status of women and their partners, parity, health insurance coverage, distance to health facilities, and region were all associated with early ANC visits among women of reproductive in Benin. These factors ought to be taken into account when developing ANC policies and strategies in order to boost early ANC visits among women in Benin. This will significantly reduce maternal and newborn mortality and help achieve the World Health Organization’s recommendation that all pregnant women should initiate early ANC visits within the first three months of pregnancy.

Keywords: antenatal care, Benin, maternal health, pregnancy, DHS, public health

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Authors: Chiung-En Huang, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Shane-Chung Lee

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This study aim at the influence of college students’ exercise and leisure motivations on the leisure benefits while using the leisure involvement as a moderator. Whereby, the research tools used in this study included the application of leisure motivation scale, leisure involvement scale and leisure benefits scale, and a hierarchical regression analysis was performed by using a questionnaire-based survey, in which, a total of 1,500 copies of questionnaires were administered and 917 valid questionnaires were obtained, achieving a response rate of 61.13%. Research findings explore that leisure involvement has a moderating effect on the relationship between the leisure motivation and leisure benefits.

Keywords: leisure motivation, leisure involvement, leisure benefits, moderator

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Authors: Shib Shankar Banerjeea, Andreas Ferya, Gert Heinricha, Amit Das

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Recently, the growing need for the development of soft robots consisting of highly deformable and compliance materials emerge from the serious limitations of conventional service robots. However, one of the main challenges of soft robotics is to develop such compliance materials, which facilitates the design of soft robotic structures and, simultaneously, controls the soft-body systems, like soft artificial muscles. Generally, silicone or acrylic-based elastomer composites are used for soft robotics. However, mechanical performance and long-term reliabilities of the functional parts (sensors, actuators, main body) of the robot made from these composite materials are inferior. This work will present the development and characterization of robust super-soft programmable elastomeric materials from crosslinked natural rubber that can serve as touch and strain sensors for soft robotic arms with very high elastic properties and strain, while the modulus is altered in the kilopascal range. Our results suggest that such soft natural programmable elastomers can be promising materials and can replace conventional silicone-based elastomer for soft robotics applications.

Keywords: elastomers, soft materials, natural rubber, sensors

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Authors: Preet Shah, Om Shrivastav

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Introduction : In India, Leishmania donovani is the only parasite causing Leishmaniasis. The parasite infects the reticuloendothelial system and is found in the bone marrow, spleen and liver. Treatment of choice is amphotericin-B with sodium stibogluconate being an alternative. Miltefosine is useful in refractory cases. In our case, Leishmaniasis occurred in a person residing in western India (which is quite rare) and it failed to respond to two different drugs (again an uncommon feature) before it finally responded to a third one. Description: A 50 year old lady, a resident of western India, with no history of recent travel, presented with an ulcer on the left side of the nose since 8 months. She was apparently alright 8 months back, when she noticed a small ulcerated lesion on the left ala of the nose which was immediately biopsied. The biopsy revealed amastigotes of Leishmania for which she was administered intra-lesional sodium stibogluconate for 1 month (4 doses every 8 days).Despite this, there was no regression of the ulcer and hence she presented to us for further management. On examination, her vital parameters were normal. Barring an ulcer on the left side of the nose, rest of the examination findings were unremarkable. Complete blood count was normal. Ultrasound abdomen showed hepatomegaly. PET-CT scan showed increased metabolic activity in left ala of nose, hepatosplenomegaly and increased metabolic activity in spleen and bone marrow. Bone marrow biopsy was done which showed hypercellular marrow with erythroid preponderance. Considering a diagnosis of leishmaniasis which had so far been unresponsive to sodium stibogluconate, she was started on liposomal amphotericin-B. At the time of admission, her creatinine level was normal, but it started rising with the administration of liposomal amphotericin-B, hence the dose was reduced. Despite this, creatinine levels did not improve, and she started developing hypokalemia and hypomagnesemia as side effects of the drug, hence further reductions in the dosage were made. Despite a total of 3 weeks of liposomal amphotericin-B, there was no improvement in the ulcer. As had so far failed to respond to sodium stibogluconate and liposomal amphotericin-B, it was decided to start her on miltefosine. She received the miltefosine for a total of 12 weeks. At the end of this duration, there was a marked regression of the cutaneous lesion. Conclusion: Refractoriness to amphotericin-B in leishmaniasis may be seen in up to 5 % cases. Here, an alternative drug such as miltefosine is useful and hence we decided to use it, to which she responded adequately. Furthermore, although leishmaniasis is common in the eastern part of India, it is a relatively unknown entity in the western part of the country with the occurrence being very rare. Because of these 2 reasons, we consider our case to be a unique one.

Keywords: amphotericin-b, leishmaniasis, miltefosine, tropical diseases

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Authors: A. J. Regan, F. J. Lidgey, M. Betteridge, P. Georgiou, C. Toumazou, K. Hayatleh, J. R. Dibble

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Our goal is development of an algorithm capable of predicting the directional trend of the Standard and Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). Extensive research has been published attempting to predict different financial markets using historical data testing on an in-sample and trend basis, with many authors employing excessively complex mathematical techniques. In reviewing and evaluating these in-sample methodologies, it became evident that this approach was unable to achieve sufficiently reliable prediction performance for commercial exploitation. For these reasons, we moved to an out-of-sample strategy based on linear regression analysis of an extensive set of financial data correlated with historical closing prices of the S&P 500. We are pleased to report a directional trend accuracy of greater than 55% for tomorrow (t+1) in predicting the S&P 500.

Keywords: financial algorithm, GPU, S&P 500, stock market prediction

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Authors: Vijay R. Patil, Sathiyanarayanan Lohidasan, K. R. Mahadik

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Gastrointestinal stability of andrographolide was evaluated in vitro in simulated gastric (SGF) and intestinal (SIF) fluids using a validated HPLC-PDA method. The method was validated using a 5μm ThermoHypersil GOLD C18column (250 mm × 4.0 mm) and mobile phase consisting of water: acetonitrile; 70: 30 (v/v) delivered isocratically at a flow rate of 1 mL/min with UV detection at 228 nm. Andrographolide in pure form and extract Andrographis paniculata was incubated at 37°C in an incubator shaker in USP simulated gastric and intestinal fluids with and without enzymes. Systematic protocol as per FDA Guidance System was followed for stability study and samples were assayed at 0, 15, 30 and 60 min intervals for gastric and at 0, 15, 30, 60 min, 1, 2 and 3 h for intestinal stability study. Also, the stability study was performed up to 24 h to see the degradation pattern in SGF and SIF (with enzyme and without enzyme). The developed method was found to be accurate, precise and robust. Andrographolide was found to be stable in SGF (pH ∼ 1.2) for 1h and SIF (pH 6.8) up to 3 h. The relative difference (RD) of amount of drug added and found at all time points was found to be < 3%. The present study suggests that drug loss in the gastrointestinal tract takes place may be by membrane permeation rather than a degradation process.

Keywords: andrographolide, Andrographis paniculata, in vitro, stability, gastric, Intestinal HPLC-PDA

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Authors: M. Khorshed Alam, H. Takaba

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The catalytic properties of metal usually change by intermixturing with another metal in polymer electrolyte fuel cells. Pt-Ru alloy is one of the much-talked used alloy to enhance the CO oxidation. In this work, we have investigated the CO coverage on the Pt2Ru3 nanoparticle with different atomic conformation of Pt and Ru using a combination of material informatics with computational chemistry. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations used to describe the adsorption strength of CO and H with different conformation of Pt Ru ratio in the Pt2Ru3 slab surface. Then through the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations we examined the segregation behaviour of Pt as a function of surface atom ratio, subsurface atom ratio, particle size of the Pt2Ru3 nanoparticle. We have constructed a regression equation so as to reproduce the results of DFT only from the structural descriptors. Descriptors were selected for the regression equation; xa-b indicates the number of bonds between targeted atom a and neighboring atom b in the same layer (a,b = Pt or Ru). Terms of xa-H2 and xa-CO represent the number of atoms a binding H2 and CO molecules, respectively. xa-S is the number of atom a on the surface. xa-b- is the number of bonds between atom a and neighboring atom b located outside the layer. The surface segregation in the alloying nanoparticles is influenced by their component elements, composition, crystal lattice, shape, size, nature of the adsorbents and its pressure, temperature etc. Simulations were performed on different size (2.0 nm, 3.0 nm) of nanoparticle that were mixing of Pt and Ru atoms in different conformation considering of temperature range 333K. In addition to the Pt2Ru3 alloy we also considered pure Pt and Ru nanoparticle to make comparison of surface coverage by adsorbates (H2, CO). Hence, we assumed the pure and Pt-Ru alloy nanoparticles have an fcc crystal structures as well as a cubo-octahedron shape, which is bounded by (111) and (100) facets. Simulations were performed up to 50 million MC steps. From the results of MC, in the presence of gases (H2, CO), the surfaces are occupied by the gas molecules. In the equilibrium structure the coverage of H and CO as a function of the nature of surface atoms. In the initial structure, the Pt/Ru ratios on the surfaces for different cluster sizes were in range of 0.50 - 0.95. MC simulation was employed when the partial pressure of H2 (PH2) and CO (PCO) were 70 kPa and 100-500 ppm, respectively. The Pt/Ru ratios decrease as the increase in the CO concentration, without little exception only for small nanoparticle. The adsorption strength of CO on the Ru site is higher than the Pt site that would be one of the reason for decreasing the Pt/Ru ratio on the surface. Therefore, our study identifies that controlling the nanoparticle size, composition, conformation of alloying atoms, concentration and chemical potential of adsorbates have impact on the steadiness of nanoparticle alloys which ultimately and also overall catalytic performance during the operations.

Keywords: anode catalysts, fuel cells, material informatics, Monte Carlo

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Authors: Yue Huang, Yiheng Feng

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Due to the global pressure on climate and energy, many countries are vigorously promoting electric vehicles and building charging (public) charging facilities. Faced with the supply-demand gap of existing electric vehicle charging stations and unreasonable space usage in China, this paper takes the central city of Nanjing as an example, establishes a site selection model through multivariate data integration, conducts multiple linear regression SPSS analysis, gives quantitative site selection results, and provides optimization models and suggestions for charging station layout planning.

Keywords: electric vehicle, charging station, allocation optimization, urban mobility, urban infrastructure, nanjing

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Authors: Ebrahim Tilahun, Erkan Sahinkaya, Bariş Calli̇

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Raw biogas is a valuable renewable energy source however it usually needs removal of the impurities. The presence of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) in the biogas has detrimental corrosion effects on the cogeneration units. Removal of H2S from the biogas can therefore significantly improve the biogas quality. In this work, a conventional bioscrubber (CBS), and a dense membrane bioscrubber (DMBS) were comparatively evaluated in terms of H2S removal efficiency (RE), CH4 enrichment and alkaline consumption at gas residence times ranging from 5 to 20 min. Both bioscrubbers were fed with a synthetic biogas containing H2S (1%), CO2 (39%) and CH4 (60%). The results show that high RE (98%) was obtained in the DMBS when gas residence time was 20 min, whereas slightly lower CO2 RE was observed. While in CBS system the outlet H2S concentration was always lower than 250 ppmv, and its H2S RE remained higher than 98% regardless of the gas residence time, although the high alkaline consumption and frequent absorbent replacement limited its cost-effectiveness. The result also indicates that in DMBS when the gas residence time increased to 20 min, the CH4 content in the treated biogas enriched upto 80%. However, while operating the CBS unit the CH4 content of the raw biogas (60%) decreased by three fold. The lower CH4 content in CBS was probably caused by extreme dilution of biogas with air (N2 and O2). According to the results obtained here the DMBS system is a robust and effective biotechnology in comparison with CBS. Hence, DMBS has a better potential for real scale applications.

Keywords: biogas, bioscrubber, desulfurization, PDMS membrane

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Authors: Chang Liang, Weizhi Gong, Yan Zhang

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Purpose: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor with a high mortality rate and poor prognosis worldwide. Murine double minute 2 (MDM2) regulates the tumor suppressor p53, increasing cancer risk and accelerating tumor progression. Speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein (SPOP), a key of subunit of Cullin-Ring E3 ligase, inhibits tumor genesis and progression by the ubiquitination of its downstream substrates. This study aimed to clarify whether SPOP and MDM2 are mutually regulated in HCC and the correlation between SPOP and MDM2 and the prognosis of HCC patients. Methods: First, the expression of SPOP and MDM2 in HCC tissues were detected by TCGA database. Then, 53 paired samples of HCC tumor and adjacent tissues were collected to evaluate the expression of SPOP and MDM2 using immunohistochemistry. Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test were used to analyze the relationship between clinicopathological features and the expression levels of SPOP and MDM2. In addition, Kaplan‒Meier curve analysis and log-rank test were used to investigate the effects of SPOP and MDM2 on the survival of HCC patients. Last, the Multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model analyzed whether the different expression levels of SPOP and MDM2 were independent risk factors for the prognosis of HCC patients. Results: Bioinformatics analysis revealed the low expression of SPOP and high expression of MDM2 were related to worse prognosis of HCC patients. The relationship between the expression of SPOP and MDM2 and tumor stem-like features showed an opposite trend. The immunohistochemistry showed the expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated while MDM2 protein significantly upregulated in HCC tissue compared to that in para-cancerous tissue. Tumors with low SPOP expression were related to worse T stage and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, but tumors with high MDM2 expression were related to worse T stage, M stage, and BCLC stage. Kaplan–Meier curves showed HCC patients with high SPOP expression and low MDM2 expression had better survival than those with low SPOP expression and high MDM2 expression (P < 0.05). A multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model confirmed that a high MDM2 expression level was an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in HCC patients (P <0.05). Conclusion: The expression of SPOP protein was significantly downregulated, while the expression of MDM2 significantly upregulated in HCC. The low expression of SPOP and high expression. of MDM2 were associated with malignant progression and poor prognosis of HCC patients, indicating a potential therapeutic target for HCC patients.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, murine double minute 2, speckle-type POX virus and zinc finger protein, ubiquitination

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Authors: Tamas Madl

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Sudden cardiac death (SCD) constitutes a large proportion of cardiovascular mortalities, provides little advance warning, and the risk is difficult to recognize based on ubiquitous, low cost medical equipment such as the standard, 12-lead, ten second ECG. Autonomic abnormalities have been shown to be strongly predictive of SCD risk; yet current methods are not trivially applicable to the brevity and low temporal and electrical resolution of standard ECGs. Here, we build horizontal visibility graph representations of very short inter-beat interval time series, and perform unsuper- vised representation learning in order to convert these variable size objects into fixed-length vectors preserving similarity rela- tions. We show that such representations facilitate classification into healthy vs. at-risk patients on two different datasets, the Mul- tiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II and the PhysioNet Sudden Cardiac Death Holter Database. Our results suggest that graph representation learning of heartbeat interval time series facilitates robust classification even in sequences as short as ten seconds.

Keywords: sudden cardiac death, heart rate variability, ECG analysis, time series classification

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Authors: Anand Kishore Kola, G. Uday Bhaskar Babu, Kotturi Ajay Kumar

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The modern dynamic systems used in industries are complex in nature and hence the fractional order controllers have been contemplated as a fresh approach to control system design that takes the complexity into account. Traditional integer order controllers use integer derivatives and integrals to control systems, whereas fractional order controllers use fractional derivatives and integrals to regulate memory and non-local behavior. This study provides a method based on the maximumsensitivity (Ms) methodology to discover all resilient fractional filter Internal Model Control - proportional integral derivative (IMC-PID) controllers that stabilize the closed-loop system and deliver the highest performance for a time delay system with a Smith predictor configuration. Additionally, it helps to enhance the range of PID controllers that are used to stabilize the system. This study also evaluates the effectiveness of the suggested controller approach for minimum phase system in comparison to those currently in use which are based on Integral of Absolute Error (IAE) and Total Variation (TV).

Keywords: modern dynamic systems, fractional order controllers, maximum-sensitivity, IMC-PID controllers, Smith predictor, IAE and TV

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Authors: Minal Jain, Vinayak Malhotra

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Solid Propellant ignition consists of rapid and complex events comprising of heat generation and transfer of heat with spreading of flames over the entire burning surface area. Proper combustion and thus propulsion depends heavily on the modes of heat transfer characteristics and cavity volume. Fire safety is an integral component of a successful rocket flight failing to which may lead to overall failure of the rocket. This leads to enormous forfeiture in resources viz., money, time, and labor involved. When the propellant is ignited, thrust is generated and the casing gets heated up. This heat adds on to the propellant heat and the casing, if not at proper orientation starts burning as well, leading to the whole rocket being completely destroyed. This has necessitated active research efforts emphasizing a comprehensive study on the inter-energy relations involved for effective utilization of the solid rocket motors for better space missions. Present work is focused on one of the major influential aspects of this detrimental burning which is the presence of an external heat source, in addition to a potential heat source which is already ignited. The study is motivated by the need to ensure better combustion and fire safety presented experimentally as a simplified small-scale mode of a rocket carrying a solid propellant inside a cavity. The experimental setup comprises of a paraffin wax candle as the pilot fuel and incense stick as the external heat source. The candle is fixed and the incense stick position and location is varied to investigate the find the influence of the pilot heat source. Different configurations of the external heat source presence with separation distance are tested upon. Regression rates of the pilot thin solid fuel are noted to fundamentally understand the non-linear heat and mass transfer which is the governing phenomenon. An attempt is made to understand the phenomenon fundamentally and the mechanism governing it. Results till now indicate non-linear heat transfer assisted with the occurrence of flaming transition at selected critical distances. With an increase in separation distance, the effect is noted to drop in a non-monotonic trend. The parametric study results are likely to provide useful physical insight about the governing physics and utilization in proper testing, validation, material selection, and designing of solid rocket motors with enhanced safety.

Keywords: combustion, propellant, regression, safety

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

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Authors: Shreyas Kumar, Mili Shangari

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Integrating artificial intelligence (AI) in the cyber insurance sector represents a significant advancement, offering the potential to revolutionize risk assessment, fraud detection, and claims processing. However, this integration introduces a range of regulatory and economic challenges that must be addressed to ensure responsible and effective deployment of AI technologies. This paper examines the multifaceted regulatory landscape governing AI in cyber insurance and explores the economic implications of compliance, innovation, and market dynamics. AI's capabilities in processing vast amounts of data and identifying patterns make it an invaluable tool for insurers in managing cyber risks. Yet, the application of AI in this domain is subject to stringent regulatory scrutiny aimed at safeguarding data privacy, ensuring algorithmic transparency, and preventing biases. Regulatory bodies, such as the European Union with its General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), mandate strict compliance requirements that can significantly impact the deployment of AI systems. These regulations necessitate robust data protection measures, ethical AI practices, and clear accountability frameworks, all of which entail substantial compliance costs for insurers. The economic implications of these regulatory requirements are profound. Insurers must invest heavily in upgrading their IT infrastructure, implementing robust data governance frameworks, and training personnel to handle AI systems ethically and effectively. These investments, while essential for regulatory compliance, can strain financial resources, particularly for smaller insurers, potentially leading to market consolidation. Furthermore, the cost of regulatory compliance can translate into higher premiums for policyholders, affecting the overall affordability and accessibility of cyber insurance. Despite these challenges, the potential economic benefits of AI integration in cyber insurance are significant. AI-enhanced risk assessment models can provide more accurate pricing, reduce the incidence of fraudulent claims, and expedite claims processing, leading to overall cost savings and increased efficiency. These efficiencies can improve the competitiveness of insurers and drive innovation in product offerings. However, balancing these benefits with regulatory compliance is crucial to avoid legal penalties and reputational damage. The paper also explores the potential risks associated with AI integration, such as algorithmic biases that could lead to unfair discrimination in policy underwriting and claims adjudication. Regulatory frameworks need to evolve to address these issues, promoting fairness and transparency in AI applications. Policymakers play a critical role in creating a balanced regulatory environment that fosters innovation while protecting consumer rights and ensuring market stability. In conclusion, the integration of AI in cyber insurance presents both regulatory and economic challenges that require a coordinated approach involving regulators, insurers, and other stakeholders. By navigating these challenges effectively, the industry can harness the transformative potential of AI, driving advancements in risk management and enhancing the resilience of the cyber insurance market. This paper provides insights and recommendations for policymakers and industry leaders to achieve a balanced and sustainable integration of AI technologies in cyber insurance.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), cyber insurance, regulatory compliance, economic impact, risk assessment, fraud detection, cyber liability insurance, risk management, ransomware

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Authors: Noureddine Mohtaram, Jeremy Patrix, Jerome Verny

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As an enormous number of online services have been developed into web applications, security problems based on web applications are becoming more serious now. Most intrusion detection systems rely on each request to find the cyber-attack rather than on user behavior, and these systems can only protect web applications against known vulnerabilities rather than certain zero-day attacks. In order to detect new attacks, we analyze the HTTP protocols of web servers to divide them into two categories: normal attacks and malicious attacks. On the other hand, the quality of the results obtained by deep learning (DL) in various areas of big data has given an important motivation to apply it to cybersecurity. Deep learning for attack detection in cybersecurity has the potential to be a robust tool from small transformations to new attacks due to its capability to extract more high-level features. This research aims to take a new approach, deep learning to cybersecurity, to classify these two categories to eliminate attacks and protect web servers of the defense sector which encounters different web traffic compared to other sectors (such as e-commerce, web app, etc.). The result shows that by using a machine learning method, a higher accuracy rate, and a lower false alarm detection rate can be achieved.

Keywords: anomaly detection, HTTP protocol, logs, cyber attack, deep learning

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Authors: Vijay nandmer, Ajay Nandmer

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Stigmatized psycho-social perception poses a serious challenge and source of discrimination which impedes stroke patients from attaining a satisfactory quality of life. The present study was aimed to obtain information on knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of stroke patients in the institute. We included 1000 people in our random sampling survey. Demographic details and responses to a questionnaire assessing the knowledge, attitude and practices were recorded. Although the majority of the patients belonged to low socioeconomic strata, the literacy rate was reasonably high (96.3%). A large majority (91.3%) of people had heard about stroke and (85.2%) knew that stroke can be treated with modern drugs. However, a negative attitude was reflected in the belief that stroke happens due to supernatural powers (hawa lagne se) (50.6%). Analysis of the data revealed regional differences in KAP which could be attributed to local Factors, such as literacy, awareness about stroke, and practice of different systems of medicine. Some of the differences can also be attributed to a category of study population whether it included patients or non-stroke individuals since the former are likely to have less negative attitudes than the public. There is a need to create awareness about stroke on a nation-wide basis to dispel the misconceptions and stigma through effective and robust programs with the aim to lessen the disease burden.

Keywords: epidemiology, sroke, literacy, stroke

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: George Pavlidis, Ana Vivas

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The demographic change into an aging population has stimulated the examination of seniors’ mental health and ability to live independently. The corresponding literature depicts the relation between cognitive decline and everyday functionality with aging, focusing largely in individuals that are reaching or have bridged the threshold of various forms of neuropathology and disability. In this context, recent meta-analysis depicts a moderate relation between cognitive performance and everyday functionality in AD sufferers. However, there has not been an analogous effort for the examination of this relation in the healthy spectrum of aging (i.e, in samples that are not challenged from a neurodegenerative disease). There is a consensus that the assessment tools designed to detect neuropathology with those that assess cognitive performance in healthy adults are distinct, thus their universal use in cognitively challenged and in healthy adults is not always valid. The same accounts for the assessment of everyday functionality. In addition, it is argued that everyday functionality should be examined with cultural adjusted assessment tools, since many vital everyday tasks are heterotypical among distinct cultures. Therefore, this study was set out to examine the relation between cognitive performance and everyday functionality a) in the healthy spectrum of aging and b) by adjusting the everyday functionality tools EPT and OTDL-R in the Greek cultural context. In Greece, 107 cognitively healthy seniors ( Mage = 62.24) completed a battery of neuropsychological tests and everyday functionality tests. Both were carefully chosen to be sensitive in fluctuations of performance in the healthy spectrum of cognitive performance and everyday functionality. The everyday functionality assessment tools were modified to reflect the local cultural context (i.e., EPT-G and OTDL-G). The results depicted that performance in all everyday functionality measures decline with age (.197 < r > .509). Statistically significant correlations emerged between cognitive performance and everyday functionality assessments that range from r =0.202 to r=0.510. A series of independent regression analysis including the scores of cognitive assessments has yield statistical significant models that explained 20.9 < AR2 > 32.4 of the variance in everyday functionality scored indexes. All everyday functionality measures were independently predicted by the TMT B-A index, and indicator of executive function. Stepwise regression analyses depicted that TMT B-A and age were statistically significant independent predictors of EPT-G and OTDL-G. It was concluded that everyday functionality is declining with age and that cognitive performance and everyday functional may be related in the healthy spectrum of aging. Age seems not to be the sole contributing factor in everyday functionality decline, rather executive control as well. Moreover, it was concluded that the EPT-G and OTDL-G are valuable tools to assess everyday functionality in Greek seniors that are not cognitively challenged, especially for research purposes. Future research should examine the contributing factors of a better cognitive vitality especially in executive control, as vital for the maintenance of independent living capacity with aging.

Keywords: cognition, everyday functionality, aging, cognitive decline, healthy aging, Greece

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Authors: Bilal Okudan, Omur F. Karakullukcu, Yusuf Can

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Work motivation is one of the fundamental elements that determine the attitudes and performance of employees towards work. In this sense, work motivation depends not only on individual and occupational factors but also on employees' perception of organizational climate and organizational trust. Organizations that are aware of this have begun to do more research on work motivation in recent years to ensure that employees have the highest possible performance. In this framework of the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of sports employees' perceptions of organizational climate and organizational trust on work motivation. In the study, it has also been analyzed if there is any significant difference in the department of sports services’ employees’ organizational climate and organizational trust perception, and work motivation levels in terms of gender, age, duty status, year of service and level of education. 278 sports managers, who work in the department of sports service’s central and field organization at least as a chief in the manager position, have been chosen with random sampling method and they have voluntarily participated in the study. In the study, the organizational climate scale which was developed by Bilir (2005), organizational trusts scale developed by koksal (2012) and work motivation scale developed by Mottaz J. Clifford (1985) have been used as a data collection tool. The questionnaire form used as a data collection tool in the study includes a personal information form consisting of 5 questions; questioning gender, age, duty status, years of service and level of education. In the study, Pearson Correlation Analysis has been used for defining the correlation among organizational climate, organizational trust perceptions and work motivation levels in sports managers and regression analysis has been used to identify the effect of organizational climate and organizational trust on work motivation. T-test for binary grouping and ANOVA analysis have been used for more than binary groups in order to determine if there is any significant difference in the level of organizational climate, organizational trust perceptions and work motivations in terms of the participants’ duty status, year of service and level of education. According to the research results, it has been found that there is a positive correlation between the department of sports services’ employees’ organizational climate, organizational trust perceptions and work motivation levels. According to the results of the regression analysis; it is understood that the sports employees’ perception of organizational climate and organizational trust are two main factors which affects the perception of work motivation. Also, the results show that there is a significant difference in the level of organizational climate and organizational trust perceptions and work motivations of the department of sports services’ employees in terms of duty status, year of service, and level of education; however, the results reveal that there is no significant difference in terms of age groups and gender.

Keywords: sports manager, organizational climate, organizational trust, work motivation

Procedia PDF Downloads 242