Search results for: spectrum estimation

Authors: Ahmad Saadiq, Neeraj Sahu

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Sediment, which comprises of solid particles of mineral and organic material are transported by water. In river systems, the amount of sediment transported is controlled by both the transport capacity of the flow and the supply of sediment. The transport of sediment in rivers is important with respect to pollution, channel navigability, reservoir ageing, hydroelectric equipment longevity, fish habitat, river aesthetics and scientific interests. The sediment load transported in a river is a very complex hydrological phenomenon. Hence, sediment transport has attracted the attention of engineers from various aspects, and different methods have been used for its estimation. So, several experimental equations have been submitted by experts. Though the results of these methods have considerable differences with each other and with experimental observations, because the sediment measures have some limits, these equations can be used in estimating sediment load. In this present study, two black box models namely, an SRC (Sediment Rating Curve) and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) are used in the simulation of the suspended sediment load. The study is carried out for Seonath subbasin. Seonath is the biggest tributary of Mahanadi river, and it carries a vast amount of sediment. The data is collected for Jondhra hydrological observation station from India-WRIS (Water Resources Information System) and IMD (Indian Meteorological Department). These data include the discharge, sediment concentration and rainfall for 10 years. In this study, sediment load is estimated from the input parameters (discharge, rainfall, and past sediment) in various combination of simulations. A sediment rating curve used the water discharge to estimate the sediment concentration. This estimated sediment concentration is converted to sediment load. Likewise, for the application of these data in ANN, they are normalised first and then fed in various combinations to yield the sediment load. RMSE (root mean square error) and R² (coefficient of determination) between the observed load and the estimated load are used as evaluating criteria. For an ideal model, RMSE is zero and R² is 1. However, as the models used in this study are black box models, they don’t carry the exact representation of the factors which causes sedimentation. Hence, a model which gives the lowest RMSE and highest R² is the best model in this study. The lowest values of RMSE (based on normalised data) for sediment rating curve, feed forward back propagation, cascade forward back propagation and neural network fitting are 0.043425, 0.00679781, 0.0050089 and 0.0043727 respectively. The corresponding values of R² are 0.8258, 0.9941, 0.9968 and 0.9976. This implies that a neural network fitting model is superior to the other models used in this study. However, a drawback of neural network fitting is that it produces few negative estimates, which is not at all tolerable in the field of estimation of sediment load, and hence this model can’t be crowned as the best model among others, based on this study. A cascade forward back propagation produces results much closer to a neural network model and hence this model is the best model based on the present study.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Root mean squared error, sediment, sediment rating curve

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Authors: H. Masaeli, R. Ziaei, F. Khoshnoudian

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Shock response analysis of the soil–structure systems induced by near–fault pulses is investigated. Vibration transmissibility of the soil–structure systems is evaluated by Shock Response Spectra (SRS). Medium–to–high rise buildings with different aspect ratios located on different soil types as well as different foundations with respect to vertical load bearing safety factors are studied. Two types of mathematical near–fault pulses, i.e. forward directivity and fling step, with different pulse periods as well as pulse amplitudes are selected as incident ground shock. Linear versus nonlinear Soil–Structure Interaction (SSI) condition are considered alternatively and the corresponding results are compared. The results show that nonlinear SSI is likely to amplify the acceleration responses when subjected to long–period incident pulses with normalized period exceeding a threshold. It is also shown that this threshold correlates with soil type, so that increased shear–wave velocity of the underlying soil makes the threshold period decrease.

Keywords: nonlinear soil–structure interaction, shock response spectrum, near–fault ground shock, rocking isolation

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Authors: Xi Yuan, Xuebin Zhu, Bojun Li

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This work describes the experiment to produce high-intensity pulsed neutron beams on XingGuangIII laser facility. The high-intensity laser is utilized to drive protons and deuterons, which hit a thick solid target to produce neutrons. The pulse duration of the laser used in the experiment is about 0.8 ps, and the laser energy is around 100 J. Protons and deuterons are accelerated from a 10-μm-thick deuterated polyethylene (CD₂) foil and diagnosed by a Thomson parabola ion-spectrometer. The energy spectrum of neutrons generated via ⁷Li(d,n) and ⁷Li(p,n) reaction when proton and deuteron beams hit a 5-mm-thick LiF target is measured by a scintillator-based time-of-flight spectrometer. Results from the neuron measurements show that the maximum neutron energy is about 12.5 MeV and the neutron yield is up to 2×10⁹/pulse. The high-intensity pulsed neutron beams demonstrated in this work can provide a valuable neutron source for material research, fast neutron induced fission research, and so on.

Keywords: picosecond laser driven, fast neutron, time-of-flight spectrometry, XinggungIII

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Authors: Dimitrios J. Dimitriou, Maria F. Sartzetaki, Simoni K. Lintzerakou

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Air transport links markets and individuals, promoting social and economic development. The review of management direction towards social responsibility and especially for the enhancement of passengers with autism is the key objective of this paper. According to a top-down approach, the key dimensions that affect the basic principles and directions of airport enterprises management towards social responsibility for the case of passengers with autism are presented. Conventional wisdom is to present actions undertaken in improving accessibility for special population groups and highlight the social dimension in the management of transport hubs. The target is to focus on transport hubs serving special groups of passengers such as passengers with autism and highlight good practices and motivate transport infrastructure management authorities and decision makers to promote the social footprint of transport. The highlights and key findings are essential for managers and decision makers to support actions and plans towards management of airport enterprises towards social responsibility, focusing on the case of passengers traveling with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

Keywords: social responsibility, special groups, airport enterprises, AUTISM

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Authors: Abbas R. Ali, Safa H. Abdulrahman

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In this study, forty samples had been collected from water of Lesser Zab River and drinking water to determine fluoride concentration and show the impact of fluoride on general health of society of Kirkuk city. Estimation of fluoride concentration and determination of its proportion in water samples were performed attentively using a fluoride ion selective electrode. The fluoride concentrations in the Lesser Zab River samples were between 0.0265 ppm and 0.0863 ppm with an average of 0.0451 ppm, whereas the average fluoride concentration in drinking water samples was 0.102 ppm and ranged from 0.010 to 0.289 ppm. A comparison between results obtained with World Health Organization (WHO) show a low concentration of fluoride in the samples of the study. Thus, for health concerns we should increase the concentration of this ion in water of Kirkuk city at least to about (1.0 ppm) and this will take place after fluorination process.

Keywords: fluoride concentration, lesser zab river, drinking water, health society, Kirkuk city

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Authors: Hafiza Khaddija Saman, Muhammad Sufyan

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The increase in availability and popularity of mobile wireless devices has led researchers to develop a wide variety of Mobile Ad-hoc Networking (MANET) protocols to exploit the unique communication opportunities presented by these devices. Devices are able to communicate directly using the wireless spectrum in a peer-to-peer fashion, and route messages through intermediate nodes, however, the nature of wireless shared communication and mobile devices result in many routing and security challenges which must be addressed before deploying a MANET. In this paper, we investigate the range of MANET routing protocols available and discuss the functionalities of several ranging from early protocols such as DSDV to more advanced such as MAODV, our protocol study focuses upon works by Perkins in developing and improving MANET routing. A range of literature relating to the field of MANET routing was identified and reviewed, we also reviewed literature on the topic of securing AODV based MANETs as this may be the most popular MANET protocol. The literature review identified a number of trends within research papers such as exclusive use of the random waypoint mobility model, excluding key metrics from simulation results and not comparing protocol performance against available alternatives.

Keywords: protocol, MANET, ad-Hoc, communication

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Authors: Maibigue Nanglet, Arafat Ousman Béchir, Mahamat Hassan Béchir

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The economy of Central African countries is growing very fast, and the demand for energy is increasing every day. As a result, insufficient power generation is one of the major problems slowing down development. This paper explores the factors of degradation of the I-V curve of the PV Generator (GPV) in harsh environments, taking the case of two locals: Mongo and Abeche. Its objective is to quantify the voltage leaks due to the different GPV installation areas; after using the Newton-Raphson numerical method of the solar cell, a survey of several experimental measurement points was made. The results of the simulation in MATLAB/Simulink show a relative power loss factor of 11.8765% on the GPVs installed in Mongo and 8.5463% on those installed in Abeche; these results allow us to say that the supports on which the modules are installed have an average impact of 10.2114% on their efficiency.

Keywords: calculation, degradation, site, GPV, severe environment

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Authors: Li Qingjian, Li Ke, He Chun, Huang Yong

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In this paper, the method of combining the Pohl Seidman's deep belief network with the self-organizing neural network is proposed to classify the target. This method is mainly aimed at the high nonlinearity of the hyperspectral image, the high sample dimension and the difficulty in designing the classifier. The main feature of original data is extracted by deep belief network. In the process of extracting features, adding known labels samples to fine tune the network, enriching the main characteristics. Then, the extracted feature vectors are classified into the self-organizing neural network. This method can effectively reduce the dimensions of data in the spectrum dimension in the preservation of large amounts of raw data information, to solve the traditional clustering and the long training time when labeled samples less deep learning algorithm for training problems, improve the classification accuracy and robustness. Through the data simulation, the results show that the proposed network structure can get a higher classification precision in the case of a small number of known label samples.

Keywords: DBN, SOM, pattern classification, hyperspectral, data compression

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Authors: Nisha Deopa, Allam Srinivasa Rao

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Quaternary potassium lead alumino borate (KPbAlB) glasses doped with different concentration of Eu³⁺ ions have been synthesized by melt quench technique and characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Scanning electron microscope (SEM), Photoluminescence (PL), Time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) and CIE-chromaticity co-ordinates to study their luminescence behavior. A broad hump was observed in XRD spectrum confirms glassy nature of as-prepared glasses. By using Judd-Ofelt (J-O) theory, various radiative parameters for the prominent fluorescent levels of Eu³⁺ have been investigated. The intense emission peak was observed at 613 nm (⁵D₀→⁷F₂) under 393 nm excitation, matches well with the excitation of n-UV LED chips. The decay profiles observed for ⁵D₀ level were exponential for lower Eu³⁺ ion concentration while non-exponential for higher concentration, which may be due to efficient energy transfer between Eu³⁺-Eu³⁺ through cross relaxation and subsequent quenching observed. From the emission cross-sections, branching ratios, quantum efficiency and CIE coordinates, it was concluded that 7 mol % of Eu³⁺ ion concentration (glass B) is optimum in KPbAlB glasses for photonic device application.

Keywords: energy transfer, glasses, J-O parameters, photoluminescence

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Authors: BenedictI Ita, Etido P. Inyang

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In this work, the resolutions of the N-dimensional Schrödinger equation with the screened modified Kratzerplus inversely quadratic Yukawa potential (SMKIQYP) have been obtained with the Greene-Aldrich approximation scheme using the Nikiforov-Uvarov method. The eigenvalues and the normalized eigenfunctions are obtained. We then apply the energy spectrum to study four (HCl, N₂, NO, and CO) diatomic molecules. The results show that the energy spectra of these diatomic molecules increase as quantum numbers increase. The energy equation was also used to calculate the partition function and other thermodynamic properties. We predicted the partition function of CO and NO. To check the accuracy of our work, the special case (Modified Kratzer and screened Modified Kratzer potentials) of the collective potential energy eigenvalues agrees excellently with the existing literature.

Keywords: Schrödinger equation, Nikiforov-Uvarov method, modified screened Kratzer, inversely quadratic Yukawa potential, diatomic molecules

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Authors: Laurel Chikwado Madumere, Kevin O. Ugorji

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A speech is said to be full of hate when it appropriates disparaging and vituperative locutions and/or appellations, which are riddled with prejudices and misconceptions about an antagonizing party on the grounds of gender, race, political orientation, religious affiliations, tribe, etc. Due largely to the dichotomies and polarities that exist in Nigeria across political ideological spectrum, tribal affiliations, and gender contradistinctions, there are possibilities for the existence of socioeconomic, religious and political conditions that would induce, provoke and catalyze hate speeches in Nigeria’s mainstream media. Therefore the aim of this paper is to investigate, using select daily newspapers in Nigeria, the extent and complexity of those likely hate speeches that emanate from the pluralism in Nigeria and to set in to relief, the discrepancies and contrariety in the interpretation of those hate words. To achieve the above, the paper shall be qualitative in orientation as it shall be using the Speech Act Theory of J. L. Austin and J. R. Searle to interpret and evaluate the hate speeches in the select Nigerian daily newspapers. Also this paper shall help to elucidate the conditions that generate hate, and inform the government and NGOs how best to approach those conditions and put an end to the possible violence and extremism that emanate from extreme cases of hate.

Keywords: extremism, gender, hate speech, pluralism, prejudice, speech act theory

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Authors: M. M. Sadeghi, S. Vahdani

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Masonry dome structures had been widely used for covering large spans in the past. The seismic assessment of these historical structures is very complicated due to the nonlinear behavior of the material, their rigidness, and special stability configuration. The assessment method based on energy balance concept, as well as the standard pushover analysis, is used to evaluate the effectiveness of these methods in the case of masonry dome structures. The Soltanieh dome building is used as an example to which two methods are applied. The performance points are given from superimposing the capacity, and demand curves in Acceleration Displacement Response Spectra (ADRS) and energy coordination are compared with the nonlinear time history analysis as the exact result. The results show a good agreement between the dynamic analysis and the energy balance method, but standard pushover method does not provide an acceptable estimation.

Keywords: energy balance method, pushover analysis, time history analysis, masonry dome

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Authors: Tran Gia Khanh, Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Nguyen Van Huong, Mai Xuan Sinh

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This work presents the problem of tube-based robust model predictive controller for a class of continuous-time systems in the presence of input disturbances. The main objective is to point out the state trajectory of closed system being maintained inside a sequence of tubes. An estimation of attraction region of the closed system is pointed out based on input state stability (ISS) theory and linearized model in each time interval. The theoretical analysis and simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm for a wheeled inverted pendulum system.

Keywords: input state stability (ISS), tube-based robust MPC, continuous-time nonlinear systems, wheeled inverted pendulum

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Authors: Taehan Bae

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In this paper, a class of length-biased Weibull mixtures is presented to model loss severity data. The proposed model generalizes the Erlang mixtures with the common scale parameter, and it shares many important modelling features, such as flexibility to fit various data distribution shapes and weak-denseness in the class of positive continuous distributions, with the Erlang mixtures. We show that the asymptotic tail estimate of the length-biased Weibull mixture is Weibull-type, which makes the model effective to fit loss severity data with heavy-tailed observations. A method of statistical estimation is discussed with applications on real catastrophic loss data sets.

Keywords: Erlang mixture, length-biased distribution, transformed gamma distribution, asymptotic tail estimate, EM algorithm, expectation-maximization algorithm

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Authors: Suchi Barua, Narottam Das, Sven Nordholm, Mohammad Razaghi

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This paper presents nonlinear pulse propagation characteristics for different input optical pulse shapes with various input pulse energy levels in semiconductor optical amplifiers. For simulation of nonlinear pulse propagation, finite-difference beam propagation method is used to solve the nonlinear Schrödinger equation. In this equation, gain spectrum dynamics, gain saturation are taken into account which depends on carrier depletion, carrier heating, spectral-hole burning, group velocity dispersion, self-phase modulation and two photon absorption. From this analysis, we obtained the output waveforms and spectra for different input pulse shapes as well as for different input energies. It shows clearly that the peak position of the output waveforms are shifted toward the leading edge which due to the gain saturation of the SOA for higher input pulse energies. We also analyzed and compared the normalized difference of full-width at half maximum for different input pulse shapes in the SOA.

Keywords: finite-difference beam propagation method, pulse shape, pulse propagation, semiconductor optical amplifier

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Authors: Olga Sukhoveeva

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main component of carbon biogeochemical cycle and one of the most important greenhouse gases (GHG). Agriculture, particularly arable soils, are one the largest sources of GHG emission for the atmosphere including CO2.Models may be used for estimation of GHG emission from agriculture if they can be adapted for different countries conditions. The only model used in officially at national level in United Kingdom and China for this purpose is DNDC (DeNitrification-DeComposition). In our research, the model DNDC is offered for estimation of GHG emission from arable soils in Russia. The aim of our research was to create the method of DNDC using for evaluation of CO2 emission in Russia based on official statistical information. The target territory was European part of Russia where many field experiments are located. At the first step of research the database on climate, soil and cropping characteristics for the target region from governmental, statistical, and literature sources were created. All-Russia Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information – World Data Centre provides open daily data about average meteorological and climatic conditions. It must be calculated spatial average values of maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation over the region. Spatial average values of soil characteristics (soil texture, bulk density, pH, soil organic carbon content) can be determined on the base of Union state register of soil recourses of Russia. Cropping technologies are published by agricultural research institutes and departments. We offer to define cropping system parameters (annual information about crop yields, amount and types of fertilizers and manure) on the base of the Federal State Statistics Service data. Content of carbon in plant biomass may be calculated via formulas developed and published by Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation. At the second step CO2 emission from soil in this region were calculated by DNDC. Modelling data were compared with empirical and literature data and good results were obtained, modelled values were equivalent to the measured ones. It was revealed that the DNDC model may be used to evaluate and forecast the CO2 emission from arable soils in Russia based on the official statistical information. Also, it can be used for creation of the program for decreasing GHG emission from arable soils to the atmosphere. Financial Support: fundamental scientific researching theme 0148-2014-0005 No 01201352499 ‘Solution of fundamental problems of analysis and forecast of Earth climatic system condition’ for 2014-2020; fundamental research program of Presidium of RAS No 51 ‘Climate change: causes, risks, consequences, problems of adaptation and regulation’ for 2018-2020.

Keywords: arable soils, carbon dioxide emission, DNDC model, European Russia

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Authors: Elke Mackensen

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Systems Engineering plays a key role during industrial product development of complex technical systems. The need for systems engineers in industry is growing. However, there is a gap between the industrial need and the academic education. Normally the academic education is focused on the domain specific design, implementation and testing of technical systems. Necessary systems engineering expertise like knowledge about requirements analysis, product cost estimation, management or social skills are poorly taught. Thus, there is the need of new academic concepts for teaching systems engineering skills. This paper presents a project-orientated training concept to prepare students from different technical degree programs for systems engineering activities. The training concept has been initially implemented and applied in the industrial engineering master program of the University of Applied Sciences Offenburg.

Keywords: educational systems engineering training, requirements analysis, system modelling, SysML

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Authors: M. C. Steyn

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Violence and entertainment are not mutually exclusive subjects in the Ancient Roman world, in reality they are closely knit together. Their world is permeated by repeated and continuous episodes of violence in its many manifestations, both sanctioned and spontaneous, most of which is considered as some form of entertainment, from plays and writings through the spectrum to the gladiatorial arena. In the 21st century this socio-psychological dynamic is manifested through the stage provided by the screen and what we watch in terms of TV, movies and games. This glorification of violence in a modern world is not out of place as seen in contemporary post apocalyptical/ dystopian literature, film and computer games where the act of violence, frowned upon by social norms and values, becomes sanctioned by the (un)real nature of the game: ‘I am not a violent person, violence is bad, this is just a game’. This paper will examine how violence is framed in the Ancient World and subsequently how it is received by popular culture to represent a world in which the maintenance of stability can only be achieved through officially sanctioned violence, whether sanctioned by the State or the gaming community. This argument will examine both ancient and modern critics of violence such as Senecca, Coleman and Foucault and framed by Baudrillard’s commentary on the post-modern conceptualization of reality.

Keywords: entertainment, violence, gladiatorial games, gaming

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Authors: Marwa I. Shabayek, Ola A. Said, Hanan A. Attaia, Heba A. Awida

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Bladder carcinoma is an important worldwide health problem. Both cystoscopy and urine cytology used in detecting bladder cancer suffer from drawbacks where cystoscopy is an invasive method and urine cytology shows low sensitivity in low grade tumors. This study validates easier and less time-consuming techniques to evaluate the value of combined use of angiogenin and clusterin in comparison and combination with voided urine cytology in the detection of bladder cancer patients. This study includes malignant (bladder cancer patients, n= 50), benign (n=20), and healthy (n=20) groups. The studied groups were subjected to cystoscopic examination, detection of bilharzial antibodies, urine cytology, and estimation of urinary angiogenin and clusterin by ELISA. The overall sensitivity and specifcity were 66% and 75% for angiogenin, 70% and 82.5% for clusterin and 46% and 80% for voided urine cytology. Combined sensitivity of angiogenin and clusterin with urine cytology increased from 82 to 88%.

Keywords: angiogenin, bladder cancer, clusterin, cytology

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Authors: Ping Chou, Xiaoyan Zhou

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Domestically and internationally, the Chinese education has long been criticized for being test-oriented, and in spite of efforts made by the Chinese government, it remains hard to find a solution. This paper intends to look at the situation in a comparatively objective manner and discuss the significance of the Shanghai Model as a newly-scheduled experiment for education reform. As a breakthrough, in addition to comprehensive inner-quality evaluation, a small but important step is to be taken in shifting focus of attention back to students by giving them more freedom in selecting certain courses for aptitude tests for college admission. As the first author of the paper has studied and taught both in Chinese and American colleges and universities, comparisons are made when the situation becomes relevant. The official solution for test-oriented education is to make students well-rounded but the writers of this paper believe that it is even more important to make the system well-rounded so it can accept a spectrum of diverse individuals with different potential.

Keywords: college admission, education reform, Shanghai model, test-oriented education

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Authors: Sarah Odofin, Zhiwei Gao

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Operations and maintenance of wind turbine have received much attention by researcher due to rapid expansion of wind farms. This paper explores a novel fault diagnosis that is designed and optimized to be very sensitive to faults and robust to disturbances. The faults considered are the sensor faults of which the augmented observer is considered to enlarge faults and to be robust to disturbance. A qualitative model based analysis is proposed for early fault diagnosis to minimize downtime mostly caused by components breakdown and exploit productivity. Simulation results are computed validating the models provided which demonstrates system performance using practical application of fault type examples. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed techniques investigated in a Matlab/Simulink environment.

Keywords: wind turbine, condition monitoring, genetic algorithm, fault diagnosis, augmented observer, disturbance robustness, fault estimation, sensor monitoring

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Authors: Nougrara Zineb

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The unique structure of the blood vessels in the retina has been used for biometric identification. The retina blood vessel pattern is a unique pattern in each individual and it is almost impossible to forge that pattern in a false individual. The retina biometrics’ advantages include high distinctiveness, universality, and stability overtime of the blood vessel pattern. Once the creases have been extracted from the images, a registration stage is necessary, since the position of the retinal vessel structure could change between acquisitions due to the movements of the eye. Image registration consists of following steps: Feature detection, feature matching, transform model estimation and image resembling and transformation. In this paper, we present an algorithm of registration; it is based on the characterization of retinal feature points. For experiments, retinal images from the DRIVE database have been tested. The proposed methodology achieves good results for registration in general.

Keywords: fovea, optic disc, registration, retinal images

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Authors: Syamimi Shamsuddin, Hanafiah Yussof, Fazah Akhtar Hanapiah, Salina Mohamed, Nur Farah Farhan Jamil, Farhana Wan Yunus

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Robot-based intervention for children with autism is an evolving research niche in human-robot interaction (HRI). Recent studies in this area mostly covered the role of robots in the clinical and experimental setting. Our previous work had shown that interaction with a robot pose no adverse effects on the children. Also, the presence of the robot, together with specific modules of interaction was associated with less autistic behavior. Extending this impact on school-going children, interactions that are in-tune with special education lessons are needed. This methodological paper focuses on how a robot can be incorporated in a current learning environment for autistic children. Six interaction scenarios had been designed based on the existing syllabus to teach communication skills, using the Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) technique as the framework. Development of the robotic experience in class also covers the required set-up involving participation from teachers. The actual research conduct involving autistic children, teachers and robot shall take place in the next phase.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, ASD, humanoid robot, communication skills, robot-assisted learning

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Authors: Haya Salah, Srinivas Sharan

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Healthcare facilities use appointment systems to schedule their appointments and to manage access to their medical services. With the growing demand for outpatient care, it is now imperative to manage physician's time effectively. However, high variation in consultation duration affects the clinical scheduler's ability to estimate the appointment duration and allocate provider time appropriately. Underestimating consultation times can lead to physician's burnout, misdiagnosis, and patient dissatisfaction. On the other hand, appointment durations that are longer than required lead to doctor idle time and fewer patient visits. Therefore, a good estimation of consultation duration has the potential to improve timely access to care, resource utilization, quality of care, and patient satisfaction. Although the literature on factors influencing consultation length abound, little work has done to predict it using based data-driven approaches. Therefore, this study aims to predict consultation duration using supervised machine learning algorithms (ML), which predicts an outcome variable (e.g., consultation) based on potential features that influence the outcome. In particular, ML algorithms learn from a historical dataset without explicitly being programmed and uncover the relationship between the features and outcome variable. A subset of the data used in this study has been obtained from the electronic medical records (EMR) of four different outpatient clinics located in central Pennsylvania, USA. Also, publicly available information on doctor's characteristics such as gender and experience has been extracted from online sources. This research develops three popular ML algorithms (deep learning, random forest, gradient boosting machine) to predict the treatment time required for a patient and conducts a comparative analysis of these algorithms with respect to predictive performance. The findings of this study indicate that ML algorithms have the potential to predict the provider service time with superior accuracy. While the current approach of experience-based appointment duration estimation adopted by the clinic resulted in a mean absolute percentage error of 25.8%, the Deep learning algorithm developed in this study yielded the best performance with a MAPE of 12.24%, followed by gradient boosting machine (13.26%) and random forests (14.71%). Besides, this research also identified the critical variables affecting consultation duration to be patient type (new vs. established), doctor's experience, zip code, appointment day, and doctor's specialty. Moreover, several practical insights are obtained based on the comparative analysis of the ML algorithms. The machine learning approach presented in this study can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing patient scheduling.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, machine learning algorithms, patient scheduling, prediction models, provider service time

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Authors: Martin Arguelles Perez, Woosoon Yim, Alexander Barzilov

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High-fidelity radiation monitoring is an essential component in the enhancement of the situational awareness capabilities of the Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) personnel. In this paper, multiple units of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) each equipped with a cadmium zinc telluride (CZT) gamma-ray sensor are used for radiation source localization, which can provide vital real-time data for the EM tasks. To achieve this goal, a fully autonomous system of multicopter-based UAV swarm in 3D tetrahedron formation is used for surveying the area of interest and performing radiation source localization. The CZT sensor used in this study is suitable for small-size multicopter UAVs due to its small size and ease of interfacing with the UAV’s onboard electronics for high-resolution gamma spectroscopy enabling the characterization of radiation hazards. The multicopter platform with a fully autonomous flight feature is suitable for low-altitude applications such as radiation contamination sites. The conventional approach uses a single UAV mapping in a predefined waypoint path to predict the relative location and strength of the source, which can be time-consuming for radiation localization tasks. The proposed UAV swarm-based approach can significantly improve its ability to search for and track radiation sources. In this paper, two approaches are developed using (a) 2D planar circular (3 UAVs) and (b) 3D tetrahedron formation (4 UAVs). In both approaches, accurate estimation of the gradient vector is crucial for heading angle calculation. Each UAV carries the CZT sensor; the real-time radiation data are used for the calculation of a bulk heading vector for the swarm to achieve a UAV swarm’s source-seeking behavior. Also, a spinning formation is studied for both cases to improve gradient estimation near a radiation source. In the 3D tetrahedron formation, a UAV located closest to the source is designated as a lead unit to maintain the tetrahedron formation in space. Such a formation demonstrated a collective and coordinated movement for estimating a gradient vector for the radiation source and determining an optimal heading direction of the swarm. The proposed radiation localization technique is studied by computer simulation and validated experimentally in the indoor flight testbed using gamma sources. The technology presented in this paper provides the capability to readily add/replace radiation sensors to the UAV platforms in the field conditions enabling extensive condition measurement and greatly improving situational awareness and event management. Furthermore, the proposed radiation localization approach allows long-term measurements to be efficiently performed at wide areas of interest to prevent disasters and reduce dose risks to people and infrastructure.

Keywords: radiation, unmanned aerial system(UAV), source localization, UAV swarm, tetrahedron formation

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Khadija Mushtaq, Mian Saqib Mehmood

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This paper attempts to determine the impact of leadership style and learning orientation on organizational performance in Pakistan. A sample of 158 middle managers selected from sports and surgical factories from Sialkot. The empirical estimation is based on a multiple linear regression analysis of the relationship between leadership style, learning orientation and organizational performance. Leadership style is measure through transformational leadership and transactional leadership. The transformational leadership has insignificant impact on organizational performance. The transactional leadership has positive and significant relation with organizational performance. Learning orientation also has positive and significant relation with organizational performance. Linear regression used to estimate the relation between dependent and independent variables. This study suggests top manger should prefer continuous process for improvement for any change in system rather radical change.

Keywords: transformational leadership, transactional leadership, learning orientation, organizational performance, Pakistan

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Authors: Manoel Pereira, Alvaro Veiga, Camila Epprecht, Renato Costa

Abstract:

This paper introduces an empirical version of the Esscher transform for risk-neutral option pricing. Traditional parametric methods require the formulation of an explicit risk-neutral model and are operational only for a few probability distributions for the returns of the underlying. In our proposal, we make only mild assumptions on the pricing kernel and there is no need for the formulation of the risk-neutral model for the returns. First, we simulate sample paths for the returns under the physical distribution. Then, based on the empirical Esscher transform, the sample is reweighted, giving rise to a risk-neutralized sample from which derivative prices can be obtained by a weighted sum of the options pay-offs in each path. We compare our proposal with some traditional parametric pricing methods in four experiments with artificial and real data.

Keywords: esscher transform, generalized autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH), nonparametric option pricing

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Authors: R. Gupta, P. Jain, S. Das

Abstract:

One way to approach construction scheduling optimization problem is to focus on the individual aspects of planning, which can be broadly classified as time scheduling, crew and resource management, and cost control. During the last four decades, construction planning has seen a lot of research, but to date, no paper had attempted to summarize the literature available under important heads. This paper addresses each of aspects separately, and presents the findings of an in-depth literature of the various planning techniques. For techniques dealing with time scheduling, the authors have adopted a rough chronological documentation. For crew and resource management, classification has been done on the basis of the different steps involved in the resource planning process. For cost control, techniques dealing with both estimation of costs and the subsequent optimization of costs have been dealt with separately.

Keywords: construction planning techniques, time scheduling, resource planning, cost control

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Authors: Rahma Fitriani, Zerlita Fahdha Pusdiktasari, Herman Cahyo Diartho

Abstract:

Spatial panel model is commonly used to specify more complicated behavior of economic agent distributed in space at an individual-spatial unit level. There are several spatial panel models which can be adapted based on certain assumptions. A package called splm in R has several functions, ranging from the estimation procedure, specification tests, and model selection tests. In the absence of prior assumptions, a comprehensive procedure which utilizes the available functions in splm must be formed, which is the objective of this study. In this way, the best specification and model can be fitted based on data. The implementation of the procedure works well. It specifies SARAR-FE as the best model for agricultural productivity growth of the 38 East Java’s Regencies/Municipalities.

Keywords: spatial panel, specification, splm, agricultural productivity growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 171