Search results for: reduced modeling
6368 Intelligent Control of Bioprocesses: A Software Application
Authors: Mihai Caramihai, Dan Vasilescu
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The main research objective of the experimental bioprocess analyzed in this paper was to obtain large biomass quantities. The bioprocess is performed in 100 L Bioengineering bioreactor with 42 L cultivation medium made of peptone, meat extract and sodium chloride. The reactor was equipped with pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, and agitation controllers. The operating parameters were 37 oC, 1.2 atm, 250 rpm and air flow rate of 15 L/min. The main objective of this paper is to present a case study to demonstrate that intelligent control, describing the complexity of the biological process in a qualitative and subjective manner as perceived by human operator, is an efficient control strategy for this kind of bioprocesses. In order to simulate the bioprocess evolution, an intelligent control structure, based on fuzzy logic has been designed. The specific objective is to present a fuzzy control approach, based on human expert’ rules vs. a modeling approach of the cells growth based on bioprocess experimental data. The kinetic modeling may represent only a small number of bioprocesses for overall biosystem behavior while fuzzy control system (FCS) can manipulate incomplete and uncertain information about the process assuring high control performance and provides an alternative solution to non-linear control as it is closer to the real world. Due to the high degree of non-linearity and time variance of bioprocesses, the need of control mechanism arises. BIOSIM, an original developed software package, implements such a control structure. The simulation study has showed that the fuzzy technique is quite appropriate for this non-linear, time-varying system vs. the classical control method based on a priori model.Keywords: intelligent, control, fuzzy model, bioprocess optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 3266367 Estimation of Source Parameters and Moment Tensor Solution through Waveform Modeling of 2013 Kishtwar Earthquake
Authors: Shveta Puri, Shiv Jyoti Pandey, G. M. Bhat, Neha Raina
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TheJammu and Kashmir region of the Northwest Himalaya had witnessed many devastating earthquakes in the recent past and has remained unexplored for any kind of seismic investigations except scanty records of the earthquakes that occurred in this region in the past. In this study, we have used local seismic data of year 2013 that was recorded by the network of Broadband Seismographs in J&K. During this period, our seismic stations recorded about 207 earthquakes including two moderate events of Mw 5.7 on 1st May, 2013 and Mw 5.1 of 2nd August, 2013.We analyzed the events of Mw 3-4.6 and the main events only (for minimizing the error) for source parameters, b value and sense of movement through waveform modeling for understanding seismotectonic and seismic hazard of the region. It has been observed that most of the events are bounded between 32.9° N – 33.3° N latitude and 75.4° E – 76.1° E longitudes, Moment Magnitude (Mw) ranges from Mw 3 to 5.7, Source radius (r), from 0.21 to 3.5 km, stress drop, from 1.90 bars to 71.1 bars and Corner frequency, from 0.39 – 6.06 Hz. The b-value for this region was found to be 0.83±0 from these events which are lower than the normal value (b=1), indicating the area is under high stress. The travel time inversion and waveform inversion method suggest focal depth up to 10 km probably above the detachment depth of the Himalayan region. Moment tensor solution of the (Mw 5.1, 02:32:47 UTC) main event of 2ndAugust suggested that the source fault is striking at 295° with dip of 33° and rake value of 85°. It was found that these events form intense clustering of small to moderate events within a narrow zone between Panjal Thrust and Kishtwar Window. Moment tensor solution of the main events and their aftershocks indicating thrust type of movement is occurring in this region.Keywords: b-value, moment tensor, seismotectonics, source parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 3136366 Manual Wheelchair Propulsion Efficiency on Different Slopes
Authors: A. Boonpratatong, J. Pantong, S. Kiattisaksophon, W. Senavongse
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In this study, an integrated sensing and modeling system for manual wheelchair propulsion measurement and propulsion efficiency calculation was used to indicate the level of overuse. Seven subjects participated in the measurement. On the level surface, the propulsion efficiencies were not different significantly as the riding speed increased. By contrast, the propulsion efficiencies on the 15-degree incline were restricted to around 0.5. The results are supported by previously reported wheeling resistance and propulsion torque relationships implying margin of the overuse. Upper limb musculoskeletal injuries and syndromes in manual wheelchair riders are common, chronic, and may be caused at different levels by the overuse i.e. repetitive riding on steep incline. The qualitative analysis such as the mechanical effectiveness on manual wheeling to establish the relationship between the riding difficulties, mechanical efforts and propulsion outputs is scarce, possibly due to the challenge of simultaneous measurement of those factors in conventional manual wheelchairs and everyday environments. In this study, the integrated sensing and modeling system were used to measure manual wheelchair propulsion efficiency in conventional manual wheelchairs and everyday environments. The sensing unit is comprised of the contact pressure and inertia sensors which are portable and universal. Four healthy male and three healthy female subjects participated in the measurement on level and 15-degree incline surface. Subjects were asked to perform manual wheelchair ridings with three different self-selected speeds on level surface and only preferred speed on the 15-degree incline. Five trials were performed in each condition. The kinematic data of the subject’s dominant hand and a spoke and the trunk of the wheelchair were collected through the inertia sensors. The compression force applied from the thumb of the dominant hand to the push rim was collected through the contact pressure sensors. The signals from all sensors were recorded synchronously. The subject-selected speeds for slow, preferred and fast riding on level surface and subject-preferred speed on 15-degree incline were recorded. The propulsion efficiency as a ratio between the pushing force in tangential direction to the push rim and the net force as a result of the three-dimensional riding motion were derived by inverse dynamic problem solving in the modeling unit. The intra-subject variability of the riding speed was not different significantly as the self-selected speed increased on the level surface. Since the riding speed on the 15-degree incline was difficult to regulate, the intra-subject variability was not applied. On the level surface, the propulsion efficiencies were not different significantly as the riding speed increased. However, the propulsion efficiencies on the 15-degree incline were restricted to around 0.5 for all subjects on their preferred speed. The results are supported by the previously reported relationship between the wheeling resistance and propulsion torque in which the wheelchair axle torque increased but the muscle activities were not increased when the resistance is high. This implies the margin of dynamic efforts on the relatively high resistance being similar to the margin of the overuse indicated by the restricted propulsion efficiency on the 15-degree incline.Keywords: contact pressure sensor, inertia sensor, integrating sensing and modeling system, manual wheelchair propulsion efficiency, manual wheelchair propulsion measurement, tangential force, resultant force, three-dimensional riding motion
Procedia PDF Downloads 2906365 Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Agritourism: The Transformative Role of Solar Energy in Enhancing Growth and Resilience in Eritrea
Authors: Beyene Daniel, Herbert Ntuli
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Agritourism in Eritrea is increasingly threatened by climate change, manifesting through rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and resource scarcity. This study employs quantitative methods to assess the economic and environmental impacts of climate change on agritourism, utilizing metrics such as annual income fluctuations, changes in visitor numbers, and energy consumption patterns. The methodology relies on secondary data sourced from the World Bank, government reports, and academic publications to analyze the economic viability of integrating solar energy into agritourism operations. Key variables include the Benefits from Renewable Energy (BRE), encompassing cost savings from reduced energy expenses and the monetized value of avoided greenhouse gas emissions. Using a net present value (NPV) framework, the research compares the impact of solar energy against traditional fossil fuel sources by evaluating the Value of Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CO2) and the Value of Health-Related Costs (VHRC) due to air pollution. The preliminary findings of this research are of utmost importance. They indicate that the adoption of solar energy can enhance energy independence by up to 40%, reduce operational costs by 25%, and stabilize agritourism activities in climate-sensitive regions. This research aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, supporting the sustainable development of agritourism in Eritrea and contributing to broader climate adaptation strategies. By employing a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, the study highlights the economic advantages and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewable energy in the face of climate change.Keywords: climate change, renewable energy, resilience, cost-benefit analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 156364 Statistical Model of Water Quality in Estero El Macho, Machala-El Oro
Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida
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Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models
Procedia PDF Downloads 986363 The Benefits of End-To-End Integrated Planning from the Mine to Client Supply for Minimizing Penalties
Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal
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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1236362 Characterization of Candlenut Shells and Its Application to Remove Oil and Fine Solids of Produced Water in Nutshell Filters of Water Cleaning Plant
Authors: Annur Suhadi, Haris B. Harahap, Zaim Arrosyidi, Epan, Darmapala
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Oilfields under waterflood often face the problem of plugging injectors either by internal filtration or external filter cake built up inside pore throats. The content of suspended solids shall be reduced to required level of filtration since corrective action of plugging is costly expensive. The performance of nutshell filters, where filtration takes place, is good using pecan and walnut shells. Candlenut shells were used instead of pecan and walnut shells since they were abundant in Indonesia, Malaysia, and East Africa. Physical and chemical properties of walnut, pecan, and candlenut shells were tested and the results were compared. Testing, using full-scale nutshell filters, was conducted to determine the oil content, turbidity, and suspended solid removal, which was based on designed flux rate. The performance of candlenut shells, which were deeply bedded in nutshell filters for filtration process, was monitored. Cleaned water outgoing nutshell filters had total suspended solids of 17 ppm, while oil content could be reduced to 15.1 ppm. Turbidity, using candlenut shells, was below the specification for injection water, which was less than 10 Nephelometric Turbidity Unit (NTU). Turbidity of water, outgoing nutshell filter, was ranged from 1.7-5.0 NTU at various dates of operation. Walnut, pecan, and candlenut shells had moisture content of 8.98 wt%, 10.95 wt%, and 9.95 wt%, respectively. The porosity of walnut, pecan, and candlenut shells was significantly affected by moisture content. Candlenut shells had property of toluene solubility of 7.68 wt%, which was much higher than walnut shells, reflecting more crude oil adsorption. The hardness of candlenut shells was 2.5-3 Mohs, which was close to walnut shells’ hardness. It was advantage to guarantee the cleaning filter cake by fluidization process during backwashing.Keywords: candlenut shells, filtration, nutshell filter, pecan shells, walnut shells
Procedia PDF Downloads 1116361 Finite Element Modeling of Global Ti-6Al-4V Mechanical Behavior in Relationship with Microstructural Parameters
Authors: Fatna Benmessaoud, Mohammed Cheikh, Vencent Velay, Vanessa Vedal, Farhad Rezai-Aria, Christine Boher
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The global mechanical behavior of materials is strongly linked to their microstructure, especially their crystallographic texture and their grains morphology. These material aspects determine the mechanical fields character (heterogeneous or homogeneous), thus, they give to the global behavior a degree of anisotropy according the initial microstructure. For these reasons, the prediction of global behavior of materials in relationship with the microstructure must be performed with a multi-scale approach. Therefore, multi-scale modeling in the context of crystal plasticity is widely used. In this present contribution, a phenomenological elasto-viscoplastic model developed in the crystal plasticity context and finite element method are used to investigate the effects of crystallographic texture and grains sizes on global behavior of a polycrystalline equiaxed Ti-6Al-4V alloy. The constitutive equations of this model are written on local scale for each slip system within each grain while the strain and stress mechanical fields are investigated at the global scale via finite element scale transition. The beta phase of Ti-6Al-4V alloy modeled is negligible; its percent is less than 10%. Three families of slip systems of alpha phase are considered: basal and prismatic families with a burgers vector and pyramidal family with aKeywords: microstructural parameters, multi-scale modeling, crystal plasticity, Ti-6Al-4V alloy
Procedia PDF Downloads 1266360 Free Secondary Education in Tanzania: Prospects, Challenges, and Proposals
Authors: Yazidu Saidi Mbalamula
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Free Basic Education (FBE) policy implementation in Secondary Schools has been one of thrilled undertaking both to the government and household in Tanzania. On the one hand, the government has achieved citizenry acceptance to responsibility and accountability, and on the other hand, the household has been relieved from social costs that were unbearable and deprived many Tanzanians access to basic education and secondary education in particular. Specifically, this study presents a descriptive survey conducted in two districts of Kagera region located at the northern part of Tanzania. Three objectives were pursued to identify achievements realized and challenges in the FBE implementation, and also stakeholders’ proposals were explored on how to improve FBE implementation. A sample of 91 respondents, including school managers, teachers, students, and parents, were involved in the study. Both questionnaires and interviews were used whereby the quantitative data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), and content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. The results show that implementation of free education policy in secondary schools had far positive impact on the improvement of school management, school attendance, reduced school drop-out, reduced parents-school managers conflicts, and increased enrollment rates. Notwithstanding that, the political machinery remains instrumental to instigate policy reforms in education sector. Nevertheless, the alienating interests of politibureau, often top-down and blanketed by superficial government redness, can hardly be feasible to wield such huge programme given staggering stakeholders’ awareness of the actual requirements and unlatching resources to back up policy implementation. The study recommends that further studies on stakeholders’ conceptions on the FBE and equity of financing of basic education in Tanzania.Keywords: capitation grant, CCM, free basic education, kagera, education policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 726359 Morphometric Parameters and Evaluation of Persian Fallow Deer Semen in Dashenaz Refuge in Iran
Authors: Behrang Ekrami, Amin Tamadon
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Persian fallow deer (Dama dama mesopotamica) is belonging to the family Cervidae and is only found in a few protected areas in the northwest, north, and southwest of Iran. The aims of this study were analysis of inbreeding and morphometric parameters of semen in male Persian fallow deer to investigate the cause of reduced fertility of this endangered species in Dasht-e-Naz National Refuge, Sari, Iran. The Persian fallow deer semen was collected from four adult bucks randomly during the breeding and non-breeding season from five dehorned and horned deer's BY an artificial vagina. Twelve blood samples was taken from Persian fallow deer and mitochondrial DNA was extracted, amplified, extracted, sequenced, and then were considered for genetic analysis. The Persian fallow deer semen, both with normal and abnormal spermatozoa, is similar to that of domestic ruminants but very smaller and difficult to observe at the primary observation. The post-mating season collected ejaculates contained abnormal spermatozoa, debris and secretion of accessory glands in horned bucks and accessory glands secretion free of any spermatozoa in dehorned or early velvet budding bucks. Microscopic evaluation in all four bucks during the mating season showed the mean concentration of 9×106 spermatozoa/ml. The mean ±SD of age, testes length and testes width was 4.60±1.52 years, 3.58±0.32 and 1.86±0.09 cm, respectively. The results identified 1120 loci (assuming each nucleotide as locus) in which 377 were polymorphic. In conclusion, reduced fertility of male Persian fallow deer may be caused by inbreeding of the protected herd in a limited area of Dasht-e-Naz National Refuge.Keywords: Persian fallow deer, spermatozoa, reproductive characteristics, morphometric parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 5776358 Protective Effect of Celosia Argentea Leaf Extract on Cadmium Induced Toxicity and Oxidative Stress in Rats
Authors: Sulyman Abdulhakeem Olarewaju, S. O. Malomo, M. T. Yakubu, J. O. Akolade
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The ameliorative effect of Celosia argentea var. cristata leaf extract against cadmium (Cd) induced oxidative stress and toxicity in selected tissues of rats was investigated. Toxicity coupled with oxidative stress was induced in rats by oral administration of Cd (8 mg/kg b. wt). Preliminary quantitative phytochemical and in vitro antioxidant analyses showed that the methanolic extract of C. argentea leaves was constituted by polyphenols (5.72%), saponins (3.20%), tannins (0.65%) and cadenolides (0.006%). IC50 of 9800, 7406, and 45.04 μg/ml were recorded for inhibition of linoleic acid oxidation, 2, 2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl and hydrogen peroxide radicals respectively. Simultaneous administration of C. argentea leaf extract with Cd significantly attenuated Cd-induced elevation of serum enzyme markers such as aspartate and alanine transaminase, alkaline and acid phosphatase as well as γ-glutaryltransferase in a dose-dependent fashion, while their reduced level in the liver were significantly increased. Higher levels of enzymatic antioxidants; superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were observed in the liver, brain, kidney and testes of the Cd-induced rats treated with C. argentea extract, while lipid peroxidation expressed in malondialdehyde concentrations were lower when compared to values in rats administered Cd only. Other Cd-induced toxicity and stress markers in the serum viz. reduced uric acid and albumin levels as well as elevated total and unconjugated bilirubin were attenuated by the extract and their values compared favorably with those animals co-administered cadmium with ascorbic acid. Data from the study showed that oral administration of extract from the leaf C. argentea may ameliorate Cd-induced oxidative stress and toxicity in rats.Keywords: toxicity, cadmium, celosia, antioxidants, oxidative stress
Procedia PDF Downloads 3466357 An Investigation into the Impacts of High-Frequency Electromagnetic Fields Utilized in the 5G Technology on Insects
Authors: Veriko Jeladze, Besarion Partsvania, Levan Shoshiashvili
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This paper addresses a very topical issue today. The frequency range 2.5-100 GHz contains frequencies that have already been used or will be used in modern 5G technologies. The wavelengths used in 5G systems will be close to the body dimensions of small size biological objects, particularly insects. Because the body and body parts dimensions of insects at these frequencies are comparable with the wavelength, the high absorption of EMF energy in the body tissues can occur(body resonance) and therefore can cause harmful effects, possibly the extinction of some of them. An investigation into the impact of radio-frequency nonionizing electromagnetic field (EMF) utilized in the future 5G on insects is of great importance as a very high number of 5G network components will increase the total EMF exposure in the environment. All ecosystems of the earth are interconnected. If one component of an ecosystem is disrupted, the whole system will be affected (which could cause cascading effects). The study of these problems is an important challenge for scientists today because the existing studies are incomplete and insufficient. Consequently, the purpose of this proposed research is to investigate the possible hazardous impact of RF-EMFs (including 5G EMFs) on insects. The project will study the effects of these EMFs on various insects that have different body sizes through computer modeling at frequencies from 2.5 to 100 GHz. The selected insects are honey bee, wasp, and ladybug. For this purpose, the detailed 3D discrete models of insects are created for EM and thermal modeling through FDTD and will be evaluated whole-body Specific Absorption Rates (SAR) at selected frequencies. All these studies represent a novelty. The proposed study will promote new investigations about the bio-effects of 5G-EMFs and will contribute to the harmonization of safe exposure levels and frequencies of 5G-EMFs'.Keywords: electromagnetic field, insect, FDTD, specific absorption rate (SAR)
Procedia PDF Downloads 916356 An Agent-Based Model of Innovation Diffusion Using Heterogeneous Social Interaction and Preference
Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee
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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 3416355 Protective Effect of Diosgenin against Silica-Induced Tuberculosis in Rat Model
Authors: Williams A. Adu, Cynthia A. Danquah, Paul P. S. Ossei, Selase Ativui, Michael Ofori, James Asenso, George Owusu
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Background Silicosis is an occupational disease of the lung that is caused by chronic exposure to silica dust. There is a higher frequency of co-existence of silicosis with tuberculosis (TB), ultimately resulting in lung fibrosis and respiratory failure. Chronic intake of synthetic drugs has resulted in undesirable side effects. Diosgenin is a steroidal saponin that has been shown to exert a therapeutic effect on lung injury. Therefore, we investigated the ability of diosgenin to reduce the susceptibility of silica-induced TB in rats. Method Silicosis was induced by intratracheal instillation of 50 mg/kg crystalline silica in Sprague Dawley rats. Different doses of diosgenin (1, 10, and 100 mg/kg), Mycobacterium smegmatis and saline were administered for 30 days. Afterwards, 5 of the rats from each group were sacrificed, and the 5 remaining rats in each group, except the control, received Mycobacterium smegmatis. Treatment of diosgenin continued until the 50th day, and the rats were sacrificed at the end of the experiment. The result was analysed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a Graph-pad prism Result At a half-maximal inhibition concentration of 48.27 µM, diosgenin inhibited the growth of Mycobacterium smegmatis. There was a marked decline in the levels of immune cell infiltration and cytokines production. Lactate dehydrogenase and total protein levels were significantly reduced compared to control. There was an increase in the survival rate of the treatment group compared to the control. Conclusion Diosgenin ameliorated silica-induced pulmonary tuberculosis by declining the levels of inflammatory and pro-inflammatory cytokines and, in effect, significantly reduced the susceptibility of rats to pulmonary TB.Keywords: silicosis, tuberculosis, diosgenin, fibrosis, crystalline silica
Procedia PDF Downloads 656354 Microchip-Integrated Computational Models for Studying Gait and Motor Control Deficits in Autism
Authors: Noah Odion, Honest Jimu, Blessing Atinuke Afuape
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Introduction: Motor control and gait abnormalities are commonly observed in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), affecting their mobility and coordination. Understanding the underlying neurological and biomechanical factors is essential for designing effective interventions. This study focuses on developing microchip-integrated wearable devices to capture real-time movement data from individuals with autism. By applying computational models to the collected data, we aim to analyze motor control patterns and gait abnormalities, bridging a crucial knowledge gap in autism-related motor dysfunction. Methods: We designed microchip-enabled wearable devices capable of capturing precise kinematic data, including joint angles, acceleration, and velocity during movement. A cross-sectional study was conducted on individuals with ASD and a control group to collect comparative data. Computational modelling was applied using machine learning algorithms to analyse motor control patterns, focusing on gait variability, balance, and coordination. Finite element models were also used to simulate muscle and joint dynamics. The study employed descriptive and analytical methods to interpret the motor data. Results: The wearable devices effectively captured detailed movement data, revealing significant gait variability in the ASD group. For example, gait cycle time was 25% longer, and stride length was reduced by 15% compared to the control group. Motor control analysis showed a 30% reduction in balance stability in individuals with autism. Computational models successfully predicted movement irregularities and helped identify motor control deficits, particularly in the lower limbs. Conclusions: The integration of microchip-based wearable devices with computational models offers a powerful tool for diagnosing and treating motor control deficits in autism. These results have significant implications for patient care, providing objective data to guide personalized therapeutic interventions. The findings also contribute to the broader field of neuroscience by improving our understanding of the motor dysfunctions associated with ASD and other neurodevelopmental disorders.Keywords: motor control, gait abnormalities, autism, wearable devices, microchips, computational modeling, kinematic analysis, neurodevelopmental disorders
Procedia PDF Downloads 246353 The Effect of Acute Aerobic Exercise after Consumption of Four Different Diets on Serum Levels Irisin, Insulin and Glucose in Overweight Men
Authors: Majid Mardaniyan Ghahfarokhi, Abdolhamid Habibi, Majid Mohammad Shahi
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The combination of exercise and diet as the most important strategy to reduce weight and control obesity-related factors, including Irisin, Insulin, and Glucose was raised. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of aerobic exercise combined with four different diets on serum levels of Irisin, Insulin, and Glucose in overweight men. Methods: In this quasi-experimental study, 8 overweight men (BMI 29.23±0.47) with average age of (23±1.6) voluntarily participated in 4 sessions by one-week interval. The study was done in exercise physiology lab. In each session, subjects performed a 30 minutes treadmill test with 60-70% of maximum heart rate, after consuming a high carbohydrate, high-fat, high-protein and normal diet. For biochemical measurement, three blood samples were taken in fasting state, two hours after meals and after exercise Results: Statistical analysis of data showed that the serum levels of Irisin after consumption all four diets had been reduced which this reduce as a result of high-fat diet that were significantly (p ≤ 0/038). Serum concentration of Insulin and Glucose increased after consuming four diets. However, increase in serum Insulin and Glucose was significant only after consuming high-carbohydrate diet (Respectively p ≤ 0/001, p ≤ 0/042). In addition, during exercise after consuming all four regular diet, high carbohydrate, high-protein and high-fat, Irisin significant increased significantly (Respectively p ≤ 0/021, p ≤ 0/049, p ≤ 0/001, P ≤ 0/003), Insulin decreased significantly (Respectively p ≤ 0/002, p ≤ 0/001, p ≤ 0/001, p ≤ 0/002) and Glucose were significantly reduced (Respectively p ≤ 0/001, p ≤ 0/001, P ≤ 0/001, p ≤ 0/002). After aerobic activity following the consumption of a high protein diet the highest increase in irisin levels, and after aerobic exercise following consumption of high carbohydrate diet the greatest decrease in insulin and glucose levels were observed. Conclusion: It seems that diet alone and exercises following different consumption diets can have a significant effect on Irisin, Insulin, and Glucose serum levels in overweight young men.Keywords: acute aerobic exercise, diet, irisin, overweight
Procedia PDF Downloads 2596352 A Parking Demand Forecasting Method for Making Parking Policy in the Center of Kabul City
Authors: Roien Qiam, Shoshi Mizokami
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Parking demand in the Central Business District (CBD) has enlarged with the increase of the number of private vehicles due to rapid economic growth, lack of an efficient public transport and traffic management system. This has resulted in low mobility, poor accessibility, serious congestion, high rates of traffic accident fatalities and injuries and air pollution, mainly because people have to drive slowly around to find a vacant spot. With parking pricing and enforcement policy, considerable advancement could be found, and on-street parking spaces could be managed efficiently and effectively. To evaluate parking demand and making parking policy, it is required to understand the current parking condition and driver’s behavior, understand how drivers choose their parking type and location as well as their behavior toward finding a vacant parking spot under parking charges and search times. This study illustrates the result from an observational, revealed and stated preference surveys and experiment. Attained data shows that there is a gap between supply and demand in parking and it has maximized. For the modeling of the parking decision, a choice model was constructed based on discrete choice modeling theory and multinomial logit model estimated by using SP survey data; the model represents the choice of an alternative among different alternatives which are priced on-street, off-street, and illegal parking. Individuals choose a parking type based on their preference concerning parking charges, searching times, access times and waiting times. The parking assignment model was obtained directly from behavioral model and is used in parking simulation. The study concludes with an evaluation of parking policy.Keywords: CBD, parking demand forecast, parking policy, parking choice model
Procedia PDF Downloads 1946351 Modeling of the Biodegradation Performance of a Membrane Bioreactor to Enhance Water Reuse in Agri-food Industry - Poultry Slaughterhouse as an Example
Authors: masmoudi Jabri Khaoula, Zitouni Hana, Bousselmi Latifa, Akrout Hanen
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Mathematical modeling has become an essential tool for sustainable wastewater management, particularly for the simulation and the optimization of complex processes involved in activated sludge systems. In this context, the activated sludge model (ASM3h) was used for the simulation of a Biological Membrane Reactor (MBR) as it includes the integration of biological wastewater treatment and physical separation by membrane filtration. In this study, the MBR with a useful volume of 12.5 L was fed continuously with poultry slaughterhouse wastewater (PSWW) for 50 days at a feed rate of 2 L/h and for a hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 6.25h. Throughout its operation, High removal efficiency was observed for the removal of organic pollutants in terms of COD with 84% of efficiency. Moreover, the MBR has generated a treated effluent which fits with the limits of discharge into the public sewer according to the Tunisian standards which were set in March 2018. In fact, for the nitrogenous compounds, average concentrations of nitrate and nitrite in the permeat reached 0.26±0.3 mg. L-1 and 2.2±2.53 mg. L-1, respectively. The simulation of the MBR process was performed using SIMBA software v 5.0. The state variables employed in the steady state calibration of the ASM3h were determined using physical and respirometric methods. The model calibration was performed using experimental data obtained during the first 20 days of the MBR operation. Afterwards, kinetic parameters of the model were adjusted and the simulated values of COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx were compared with those reported from the experiment. A good prediction was observed for the COD, N-NH4+and N- NOx concentrations with 467 g COD/m³, 110.2 g N/m³, 3.2 g N/m³ compared to the experimental data which were 436.4 g COD/m³, 114.7 g N/m³ and 3 g N/m³, respectively. For the validation of the model under dynamic simulation, the results of the experiments obtained during the second treatment phase of 30 days were used. It was demonstrated that the model simulated the conditions accurately by yielding a similar pattern on the variation of the COD concentration. On the other hand, an underestimation of the N-NH4+ concentration was observed during the simulation compared to the experimental results and the measured N-NO3 concentrations were lower than the predicted ones, this difference could be explained by the fact that the ASM models were mainly designed for the simulation of biological processes in the activated sludge systems. In addition, more treatment time could be required by the autotrophic bacteria to achieve a complete and stable nitrification. Overall, this study demonstrated the effectiveness of mathematical modeling in the prediction of the performance of the MBR systems with respect to organic pollution, the model can be further improved for the simulation of nutrients removal for a longer treatment period.Keywords: activated sludge model (ASM3h), membrane bioreactor (MBR), poultry slaughter wastewater (PSWW), reuse
Procedia PDF Downloads 586350 Application of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy to Monitor the Steel/Soil Interface During Cathodic Protection of Steel in Simulated Soil Solution
Authors: Mandlenkosi George Robert Mahlobo, Tumelo Seadira, Major Melusi Mabuza, Peter Apata Olubambi
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Cathodic protection (CP) has been widely considered a suitable technique for mitigating corrosion of buried metal structures. Plenty of efforts have been made in developing techniques, in particular non-destructive techniques, for monitoring and quantifying the effectiveness of CP to ensure the sustainability and performance of buried steel structures. The aim of this study was to investigate the evolution of the electrochemical processes at the steel/soil interface during the application of CP on steel in simulated soil. Carbon steel was subjected to electrochemical tests with NS4 solution used as simulated soil conditions for 4 days before applying CP for a further 11 days. A previously modified non-destructive voltammetry technique was applied before and after the application of CP to measure the corrosion rate. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS), in combination with mathematical modeling through equivalent electric circuits, was applied to determine the electrochemical behavior at the steel/soil interface. The measured corrosion rate was found to have decreased from 410 µm/yr to 8 µm/yr between days 5 and 14 because of the applied CP. Equivalent electrical circuits were successfully constructed and used to adequately model the EIS results. The modeling of the obtained EIS results revealed the formation of corrosion products via a mixed activation-diffusion mechanism during the first 4 days, while the activation mechanism prevailed in the presence of CP, resulting in a protective film. The x-ray diffraction analysis confirmed the presence of corrosion products and the predominant protective film corresponding to the calcareous deposit.Keywords: carbon steel, cathodic protection, NS4 solution, voltammetry, EIS
Procedia PDF Downloads 646349 Auto Calibration and Optimization of Large-Scale Water Resources Systems
Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari
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Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.Keywords: auto-calibration, Gilan, large-scale water resources, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3356348 Modeling Depth Averaged Velocity and Boundary Shear Stress Distributions
Authors: Ebissa Gadissa Kedir, C. S. P. Ojha, K. S. Hari Prasad
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In the present study, the depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress in non-prismatic compound channels with three different converging floodplain angles ranging from 1.43ᶱ to 7.59ᶱ have been studied. The analytical solutions were derived by considering acting forces on the channel beds and walls. In the present study, five key parameters, i.e., non-dimensional coefficient, secondary flow term, secondary flow coefficient, friction factor, and dimensionless eddy viscosity, were considered and discussed. An expression for non-dimensional coefficient and integration constants was derived based on the boundary conditions. The model was applied to different data sets of the present experiments and experiments from other sources, respectively, to examine and analyse the influence of floodplain converging angles on depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions. The results show that the non-dimensional parameter plays important in portraying the variation of depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress distributions with different floodplain converging angles. Thus, the variation of the non-dimensional coefficient needs attention since it affects the secondary flow term and secondary flow coefficient in both the main channel and floodplains. The analysis shows that the depth-averaged velocities are sensitive to a shear stress-dependent model parameter non-dimensional coefficient, and the analytical solutions are well agreed with experimental data when five parameters are included. It is inferred that the developed model may facilitate the interest of others in complex flow modeling.Keywords: depth-average velocity, converging floodplain angles, non-dimensional coefficient, non-prismatic compound channels
Procedia PDF Downloads 746347 Blue Whale Body Condition from Photographs Taken over a 14-Year Period in the North East Pacific: Annual Variations and Connection to Measures of Ocean Productivity
Authors: Rachel Wachtendonk, John Calambokidis, Kiirsten Flynn
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Large marine mammals can serve as an indicator of the overall state of the environment due to their long lifespan and apex position in marine food webs. Reductions in prey, driven by changes in environmental conditions can have resounding impacts on the trophic system as a whole; this can manifest in reduced fat stores that are visible on large whales. Poor health can lead to reduced survivorship and fitness, both of which can be detrimental to a recovering population. A non-invasive technique was used for monitoring blue whale health and for seeing if it changes with ocean conditions. Digital photographs of blue whales taken in the NE Pacific by Cascadia Research and collaborators from 2005-2018 (n=3,545) were scored for overall body condition based on visible vertebrae and body shape on a scale of 0-3 where a score of 0 indicated best body condition and a score of 3 indicated poorest. The data was analyzed to determine if there were patterns in the health of whales across years and whether overall poor health was related to oceanographic conditions and predictors of prey abundance on the California coast. The year was a highly significant factor in body condition (Chi-Square, p<0.001). The proportion of whales showing poor body condition (scores 2 & 3) overall was 33% but by year varied widely from a low of 18% (2008) to a high of 55% (2015). The only two years where >50% of animals had poor body condition were 2015 and 2017 (no other year was above 45%). The 2015 maximum proportion of whales in poor body condition coincide with the marine heat wave that affected the NE Pacific 2014-16 and impacted other whale populations. This indicates that the scoring method was an effective way to evaluate blue whale health and how they respond to a changing ocean.Keywords: blue whale, body condition, environmental variability, photo-identification
Procedia PDF Downloads 2046346 Biocontrol Effectiveness of Indigenous Trichoderma Species against Meloidogyne javanica and Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis lycopersici on Tomato
Authors: Hajji Lobna, Chattaoui Mayssa, Regaieg Hajer, M'Hamdi-Boughalleb Naima, Rhouma Ali, Horrigue-Raouani Najet
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In this study, three local isolates of Trichoderma (Tr1: T. viride, Tr2: T. harzianum and Tr3: T. asperellum) were isolated and evaluated for their biocontrol effectiveness under in vitro conditions and in greenhouse. In vitro bioassay revealed a biopotential control against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis lycopersici and Meloidogyne javanica (RKN) separately. All species of Trichoderma exhibited biocontrol performance and (Tr1) Trichoderma viride was the most efficient. In fact, growth rate inhibition of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis lycopersici (FORL) was reached 75.5% with Tr1. Parasitism rate of root-knot nematode was 60% for juveniles and 75% for eggs with the same one. Pots experiment results showed that Tr1 and Tr2, compared to chemical treatment, enhanced the plant growth and exhibited better antagonism against root-knot nematode and root-rot fungi separated or combined. All Trichoderma isolates revealed a bioprotection potential against Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis lycopersici. When pathogen fungi inoculated alone, Fusarium wilt index and browning vascular rate were reduced significantly with Tr1 (0.91, 2.38%) and Tr2 (1.5, 5.5%), respectively. In the case of combined infection with Fusarium and nematode, the same isolate of Trichoderma Tr1 and Tr2 decreased Fusarium wilt index at 1.1 and 0.83 and reduced the browning vascular rate at 6.5% and 6%, respectively. Similarly, the isolate Tr1 and Tr2 caused maximum inhibition of nematode multiplication. Multiplication rate was declined at 4% with both isolates either tomato infected by nematode separately or concomitantly with Fusarium. The chemical treatment was moderate in activity against Meloidogyne javanica and Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. radicis lycopersici alone and combined.Keywords: trichoderma spp., meloidogyne javanica, Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.radicis lycopersici, biocontrol
Procedia PDF Downloads 2786345 Quantifying the Impact of Climate Change on Agritourism: The Transformative Role of Solar Energy in Enhancing Growth and Resilience in Eritrea
Authors: Beyene Daniel Abrha
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Agritourism in Eritrea is increasingly threatened by climate change, manifesting through rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and resource scarcity. This study employs quantitative methods to assess the economic and environmental impacts of climate change on agritourism, utilizing metrics such as annual income fluctuations, changes in visitor numbers, and energy consumption patterns. The methodology relies on secondary data sourced from the World Bank, government reports, and academic publications to analyze the economic viability of integrating solar energy into agritourism operations. Key variables include the Benefits from Renewable Energy (BRE), encompassing cost savings from reduced energy expenses and the monetized value of avoided greenhouse gas emissions. Using a net present value (NPV) framework, the research compares the impact of solar energy against traditional fossil fuel sources by evaluating the Value of Reduced Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CO2) and the Value of Health-Related Costs (VHRC) due to air pollution. The preliminary findings of this research are of utmost importance. They indicate that the adoption of solar energy can enhance energy independence by up to 40%, reduce operational costs by 25%, and stabilize agritourism activities in climate-sensitive regions. This research aims to provide actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, supporting the sustainable development of agritourism in Eritrea and contributing to broader climate adaptation strategies. By employing a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, the study highlights the economic advantages and environmental benefits of transitioning to renewable energy in the face of climate change.Keywords: agritourism, climate change, renewable energy, cost benefit analysis, resilience, cost-benefit analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 126344 Nonlinear Finite Element Modeling of Deep Beam Resting on Linear and Nonlinear Random Soil
Authors: M. Seguini, D. Nedjar
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An accuracy nonlinear analysis of a deep beam resting on elastic perfectly plastic soil is carried out in this study. In fact, a nonlinear finite element modeling for large deflection and moderate rotation of Euler-Bernoulli beam resting on linear and nonlinear random soil is investigated. The geometric nonlinear analysis of the beam is based on the theory of von Kàrmàn, where the Newton-Raphson incremental iteration method is implemented in a Matlab code to solve the nonlinear equation of the soil-beam interaction system. However, two analyses (deterministic and probabilistic) are proposed to verify the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed model where the theory of the local average based on the Monte Carlo approach is used to analyze the effect of the spatial variability of the soil properties on the nonlinear beam response. The effect of six main parameters are investigated: the external load, the length of a beam, the coefficient of subgrade reaction of the soil, the Young’s modulus of the beam, the coefficient of variation and the correlation length of the soil’s coefficient of subgrade reaction. A comparison between the beam resting on linear and nonlinear soil models is presented for different beam’s length and external load. Numerical results have been obtained for the combination of the geometric nonlinearity of beam and material nonlinearity of random soil. This comparison highlighted the need of including the material nonlinearity and spatial variability of the soil in the geometric nonlinear analysis, when the beam undergoes large deflections.Keywords: finite element method, geometric nonlinearity, material nonlinearity, soil-structure interaction, spatial variability
Procedia PDF Downloads 4146343 Numerical Simulation of Different Configurations for a Combined Gasification/Carbonization Reactors
Authors: Mahmoud Amer, Ibrahim El-Sharkawy, Shinichi Ookawara, Ahmed Elwardany
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Gasification and carbonization are two of the most common ways for biomass utilization. Both processes are using part of the waste to be accomplished, either by incomplete combustion or for heating for both gasification and carbonization, respectively. The focus of this paper is to minimize the part of the waste that is used for heating biomass for gasification and carbonization. This will occur by combining both gasifiers and carbonization reactors in a single unit to utilize the heat in the product biogas to heating up the wastes in the carbonization reactors. Three different designs are proposed for the combined gasification/carbonization (CGC) reactor. These include a parallel combination of two gasifiers and carbonized syngas, carbonizer and combustion chamber, and one gasifier, carbonizer, and combustion chamber. They are tested numerically using ANSYS Fluent Computational Fluid Dynamics to ensure homogeneity of temperature distribution inside the carbonization part of the CGC reactor. 2D simulations are performed for the three cases after performing both mesh-size and time-step independent solutions. The carbonization part is common among the three different cases, and the difference among them is how this carbonization reactor is heated. The simulation results showed that the first design could provide only partial homogeneous temperature distribution, not across the whole reactor. This means that the produced carbonized biomass will be reduced as it will only fill a specified height of the reactor. To keep the carbonized product production high, a series combination is proposed. This series configuration resulted in a uniform temperature distribution across the whole reactor as it has only one source for heat with no temperature distribution on any surface of the carbonization section. The simulations provided a satisfactory result that either the first parallel combination of gasifier and carbonization reactor could be used with a reduced carbonized amount or a series configuration to keep the production rate high.Keywords: numerical simulation, carbonization, gasification, biomass, reactor
Procedia PDF Downloads 1026342 A Phenomenological Approach to Computational Modeling of Analogy
Authors: José Eduardo García-Mendiola
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In this work, a phenomenological approach to computational modeling of analogy processing is carried out. The paper goes through the consideration of the structure of the analogy, based on the possibility of sustaining the genesis of its elements regarding Husserl's genetic theory of association. Among particular processes which take place in order to get analogical inferences, there is one which arises crucial for enabling efficient base cases retrieval through long-term memory, namely analogical transference grounded on familiarity. In general, it has been argued that analogical reasoning is a way by which a conscious agent tries to determine or define a certain scope of objects and relationships between them using previous knowledge of other familiar domain of objects and relations. However, looking for a complete description of analogy process, a deeper consideration of phenomenological nature is required in so far, its simulation by computational programs is aimed. Also, one would get an idea of how complex it would be to have a fully computational account of the analogy elements. In fact, familiarity is not a result of a mere chain of repetitions of objects or events but generated insofar as the object/attribute or event in question is integrable inside a certain context that is taking shape as functionalities and functional approaches or perspectives of the object are being defined. Its familiarity is generated not by the identification of its parts or objective determinations as if they were isolated from those functionalities and approaches. Rather, at the core of such a familiarity between entities of different kinds lays the way they are functionally encoded. So, and hoping to make deeper inroads towards these topics, this essay allows us to consider that cognitive-computational perspectives can visualize, from the phenomenological projection of the analogy process reviewing achievements already obtained as well as exploration of new theoretical-experimental configurations towards implementation of analogy models in specific as well as in general purpose machines.Keywords: analogy, association, encoding, retrieval
Procedia PDF Downloads 1226341 Experimental Study for Examination of Nature of Diffusion Process during Wine Microoxygenation
Authors: Ilirjan Malollari, Redi Buzo, Lorina Lici
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This study was done for the characterization of polyphenols changes of anthocyanins, flavonoids, the color intensity and total polyphenols index, maturity and oxidation index during the process of micro-oxygenation of wine that comes from a specific geographic area in the southeastern region of the country. Also, through mathematical modeling of the oxygen distribution within solution of wort for wine fermentation, was shown the strong impact of carbon dioxide present in the liquor. Analytical results show periodic increases of color intensity and tonality, reduction level of free anthocyanins and flavonoids free because of polycondensation reactions between tannins and anthocyanins, increased total polyphenols index and decrease the ratio between the flavonoids and anthocyanins offering a red stabilize wine proved by sensory degustation tasting for color intensity, tonality, body, tannic perception, taste and remained back taste which comes by specific area associated with environmental indications. Micro-oxygenation of wine is a wine-making technique, which consists in the addition of small and controlled amounts of oxygen in the different stages of wine production but more efficiently after end of alcoholic fermentation. The objectives of the process include improved mouth feel (body and texture), color enhanced stability, increased oxidative stability, and decreased vegetative aroma during polyphenols changes process. A very important factor is polyphenolics organic grape composition strongly associated with the environment geographical specifics area in which it is grown the grape.Keywords: micro oxygenation, polyphenols, environment, wine stability, diffusion modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 2106340 Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain Method for Corn and Soybean Price Forecasting in North Carolina Markets
Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme
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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov
Procedia PDF Downloads 2176339 Assets and Health: Examining the Asset-Building Theoretical Framework and Psychological Distress
Authors: Einav Srulovici, Michal Grinstein-Weiss, George Knafl, Linda Beeber, Shawn Kneipp, Barbara Mark
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Background: The asset-building theoretical framework (ABTF) is acknowledged as the most complete framework thus far for depicting the relationships between asset accumulation (the stock of a household’s saved resources available for future investment) and health outcomes. Although the ABTF takes into consideration the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and health, no ABTF based study has yet examined this relationship. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to test the ABTF and psychological distress, focusing on the reciprocal relationship between assets accumulation and psychological distress. Methods: The study employed longitudinal data from 6,295 families from the 2001 and 2007 Panel Study of Income Dynamics data sets. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and psychological distress. Results: In general, the data displayed a good fit to the model. The longitudinal SEM found that asset accumulation significantly increased with a decreased in psychological distress over time, while psychological distress significantly increased with an increase in asset accumulation over time, confirming the existence of the hypothesized reciprocal relationship. Conclusions: Individuals who are less psychological distressed might have more energy to engage in activities, such as furthering their education or obtaining better jobs that are in turn associated with greater asset accumulation, while those who have greater assets may invest those assets in riskier investments, resulting in increased psychological distress. The confirmation of this reciprocal relationship highlights the importance of conducting longitudinal studies and testing the reciprocal relationship between asset accumulation and other health outcomes.Keywords: asset-building theoretical framework, psychological distress, structural equation modeling, reciprocal relationship
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