Search results for: multiple distribution supply chain network
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15997

Search results for: multiple distribution supply chain network

937 The Participation of Graduates and Students of Social Work in the Erasmus Program: a Case Study in the Portuguese context – the Polytechnic of Leiria

Authors: Cezarina da Conceição Santinho Maurício, José Duque Vicente

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Established in 1987, the Erasmus Programme is a program for the exchange of higher education students. Its purposes are several. The mobility developed has contributed to the promotion of multiple learning, the internalization the feeling of belonging to a community, and the consolidation of cooperation between entities or universities. It also allows the experience of a European experience, considering multilingualism one of the bases of the European project and vehicle to achieve the union in diversity. The program has progressed and introduced changes Erasmus+ currently offers a wide range of opportunities for higher education, vocational education and training, school education, adult education, youth, and sport. These opportunities are open to students and other stakeholders, such as teachers. Portugal was one of the countries that readily adhered to this program, assuming itself as an instrument of internationalization of polytechnic and university higher education. Students and social work teachers have been involved in this mobility of learning and multicultural interactions. The presence and activation of this program was made possible by Portugal's joining the European Union. This event was reflected in the field of portuguese social work and contributes to its approach to the reality of european social work. Historically, the Portuguese social work has built a close connection with the Latin American world and, in particular, with Brazil. There are several examples that can be identified in the different historical stages. This is the case of the post-revolution period of 1974 and the presence of the reconceptualization movement, the struggle for enrollment in the higher education circuit, the process of winning a bachelor's degree, and postgraduate training (the first doctorates of social work were carried out in Brazilian universities). This influence is also found in the scope of the authors and the theoretical references used. This study examines the participation of graduates and students of social work in the Erasmus program. The following specific goals were outlined: to identify the host countries and universities; to investigate the dimension and type of mobility made, understand the learning and experiences acquired, identify the difficulties felt, capture their perspectives on social work and the contribution of this experience in training. In the methodological field, the option fell on a qualitative methodology, with the application of semi-structured interviews to graduates and students of social work with Erasmus mobility experience. Once the graduates agreed, the interviews were recorded and transcribed, analyzed according to the previously defined analysis categories. The findings emphasize the importance of this experience for students and graduates in informal and formal learning. The authors conclude with recommendations to reinforce this mobility, either at the individual level or as a project built for the group or collective.

Keywords: erasmus programme, graduates and students of social work, participation, social work

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936 A Culture-Contrastive Analysis Of The Communication Between Discourse Participants In European Editorials

Authors: Melanie Kerschner

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Language is our main means of social interaction. News journalism, especially opinion discourse, holds a powerful position in this context. Editorials can be regarded as encounters of different, partially contradictory relationships between discourse participants constructed through the editorial voice. Their primary goal is to shape public opinion by commenting on events already addressed by other journalistic genres in the given newspaper. In doing so, the author tries to establish a consensus over the negotiated matter (i.e. the news event) with the reader. At the same time, he/she claims authority over the “correct” description and evaluation of an event. Yet, how can the relationship and the interaction between the discourse participants, i.e. the journalist, the reader and the news actors represented in the editorial, be best visualized and studied from a cross-cultural perspective? The present research project attempts to give insights into the role of (media) culture in British, Italian and German editorials. For this purpose the presenter will propose a basic framework: the so called “pyramid of discourse participants”, comprising the author, the reader, two types of news actors and the semantic macro-structure (as meta-level of analysis). Based on this framework, the following questions will be addressed: • Which strategies does the author employ to persuade the reader and to prompt him to give his opinion (in the comment section)? • In which ways (and with which linguistic tools) is editorial opinion expressed? • Does the author use adjectives, adverbials and modal verbs to evaluate news actors, their actions and the current state of affairs or does he/she prefer nominal labels? • Which influence do language choice and the related media culture have on the representation of news events in editorials? • In how far does the social context of a given media culture influence the amount of criticism and the way it is mediated so that it is still culturally-acceptable? The following culture-contrastive study shall examine 45 editorials (i.e. 15 per media culture) from six national quality papers that are similar in distribution, importance and the kind of envisaged readership to make valuable conclusions about culturally-motivated similarities and differences in the coverage and assessment of news events. The thematic orientation of the editorials will be the NSA scandal and the reactions of various countries, as this topic was and still is relevant to each of the three media cultures. Starting out from the “pyramid of discourse participants” as underlying framework, eight different criteria will be assigned to the individual discourse participants in the micro-analysis of the editorials. For the purpose of illustration, a single criterion, referring to the salience of authorial opinion, will be selected to demonstrate how the pyramid of discourse participants can be applied as a basis for empirical analysis. Extracts from the corpus shall furthermore enhance the understanding.

Keywords: Micro-analysis of editorials, culture-contrastive research, media culture, interaction between discourse participants, evaluation

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935 Air–Water Two-Phase Flow Patterns in PEMFC Microchannels

Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, A. Serir, E-K. Si Ahmed, J. Legrand

Abstract:

The acronym PEM refers to Proton Exchange Membrane or alternatively Polymer Electrolyte Membrane. Due to its high efficiency, low operating temperature (30–80 °C), and rapid evolution over the past decade, PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause “flooding” (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The experimental transparent fuel cell used in this work was designed to represent actual full scale of fuel cell geometry. According to the operating conditions, a number of flow regimes may appear in the microchannel: droplet flow, blockage water liquid bridge /plug (concave and convex forms), slug/plug flow and film flow. Some of flow patterns are new, while others have been already observed in PEMFC microchannels. An algorithm in MATLAB was developed to automatically determine the flow structure (e.g. slug, droplet, plug, and film) of detected liquid water in the test microchannels and yield information pertaining to the distribution of water among the different flow structures. A video processing algorithm was developed to automatically detect dynamic and static liquid water present in the gas channels and generate relevant quantitative information. The potential benefit of this software allows the user to obtain a more precise and systematic way to obtain measurements from images of small objects. The void fractions are also determined based on images analysis. The aim of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of two-phase flow in an operating fuel cell which can be used towards the optimization of water management and informs design guidelines for gas delivery microchannels for fuel cells and its essential in the design and control of diverse applications. The approach will combine numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, air-water two phase flow, gas diffusion layer, microchannels, advancing contact angle, receding contact angle, void fraction, surface tension, image processing

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934 Determinants of Profit Efficiency among Poultry Egg Farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria: A Stochastic Profit Function Approach

Authors: Olufunke Olufunmilayo Ilemobayo, Barakat. O Abdulazeez

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Profit making among poultry egg farmers has been a challenge to efficient distribution of scarce farm resources over the years, due majorly to low capital base, inefficient management, technical inefficiency, economic inefficiency, thus poultry egg production has moved into an underperformed situation, characterised by low profit margin. Though previous studies focus mainly on broiler production and efficiency of its production, however, paucity of information exist in the areas of profit efficiency in the study area. Hence, determinants of profit efficiency among poultry egg farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria were investigated. A purposive sampling technique was used to obtain primary data from poultry egg farmers in Owo and Akure local government area of Ondo State, through a well-structured questionnaire. socio-economic characteristics such as age, gender, educational level, marital status, household size, access to credit, extension contact, other variables were input and output data like flock size, cost of feeder and drinker, cost of feed, cost of labour, cost of drugs and medications, cost of energy, price of crate of table egg, price of spent layers were variables used in the study. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, budgeting analysis, and stochastic profit function/inefficiency model. Result of the descriptive statistics shows that 52 per cent of the poultry farmers were between 31-40 years, 62 per cent were male, 90 per cent had tertiary education, 66 per cent were primarily poultry farmers, 78 per cent were original poultry farm owners and 55 per cent had more than 5 years’ work experience. Descriptive statistics on cost and returns indicated that 64 per cent of the return were from sales of egg, while the remaining 36 per cent was from sales of spent layers. The cost of feeding take the highest proportion of 69 per cent of cost of production and cost of medication the lowest (7 per cent). A positive gross margin of N5, 518,869.76, net farm income of ₦ 5, 500.446.82 and net return on investment of 0.28 indicated poultry egg production is profitable. Equipment’s cost (22.757), feeding cost (18.3437), labour cost (136.698), flock size (16.209), drug and medication cost (4.509) were factors that affecting profit efficiency, while education (-2.3143), household size (-18.4291), access to credit (-16.027), and experience (-7.277) were determinant of profit efficiency. Education, household size, access to credit and experience in poultry production were the main determinants of profit efficiency of poultry egg production in Ondo State. Other factors that affect profit efficiency were cost of feeding, cost of labour, flock size, cost of drug and medication, they positively and significantly influenced profit efficiency in Ondo State, Nigeria.

Keywords: cost and returns, economic inefficiency, profit margin, technical inefficiency

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933 Current Situation of Midwifery Student Organization in Turkey

Authors: Yeliz Cakir Kocak, Hafize Ozturk Can, Sibel Icke, Ummahan Yucel, Esin Ceber Turfan

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Introduction: Midwifery organization in Turkey became official in 1954 with the foundation of Midwifery Association. Today there are two Professional organizations representing midwives: ‘Midwifery Association’ and ‘Association for Education, Research and Development in Midwifery (AERDM)’. In recent years, conjuction with the increase in the numbers of midwives, professional consciousness and professional organization conscious is increasing. The undergraduates of Midwifery Department of Ege University İzmir Ataturk School of Health have come together for their professions when they’re stil students, so they founded ‘Midwifery Community of Ege University (MCEU) (EGEBET in Turkish)’ in counseling within structors and the confirmation of the university in 2013. Objective: The aim of this presentation is to reveal the activities and grades of an undergraduate community in-three-years, founded by the undergraduates in order to raise awareness in pregraduate Professional organization. Thus it is aimed to be aware towards postgraduate Professional organization, and to reflect Professional unity and solidarity, alongside personal development to midwifery services by maintaining Professional development. In-the-presentation it is aimed to explain what dimension the organization of midwifery students in Turkey is, and to be a stimulus so that ICM can be more active on undergraduate communities. Findings: MCEU’s an activity that has launched in the scope of Social Responsibility Lecture instructed in curricula of second grade in the Midwifery Department. The community have performed lots activities to reach their objectives between the years of 2013-2016. MCEU have had 65 members in a very-soon period. Today the community that goes on its activities on social network in order to abolish the distances and reach more midwifery students’ve 444 members. MCEU aiming to make all the students of the Midwifery Department a member of this association also accepts the applications of national and international midwifery students. More over the community has published two student periodical magazine and carries out activities on Midwifery Day each year. Conclusion: In conjuction with the national introduction of MCEU in the student congress in 2013, it has received consultancy from the members of MCEU as a sample model in the student organization of midwifery department of other universities in Turkey, and stil remains receiving. Furthermore a student community has been founded under the roof of association with the demand of community’s members. Also academician has a responsibility to give direction to the future and shape the future. Therefore, it is thought that the study can be an instance for all branches of science students and academics. Acknowledgment: We thank to founder members of MCEU and all the other students remaining to perform activities because of their contributions to Professional organization.

Keywords: current situation, midwifery, organization, student

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932 Cultural Identity and Self-Censorship in Social Media: A Qualitative Case Study

Authors: Nastaran Khoshsabk

Abstract:

The evolution of communication through the Internet has influenced shaping and reshaping the self-presentation of social media users. Online communities both connect people and give voice to the voiceless allowing them to present themselves nationally and globally. People all around the world are experiencing censorship in different aspects of their life. Censorship can be externally imposed because of the political situations, or it can be self-imposed. Social media users choose the content they want to share and decide about the online audiences with whom they want to share this content. Most social media networks, such as Facebook, enable their users to be selective about the shared content and its availability to other people. However, sometimes instead of targeting a specific audience, users self-censor themselves or decide not to share various forms of information. These decisions are of particular importance in countries such as Iran where Internet is not the arena of free self-presentation and people are encouraged to stay away from political participation in the country and acting against the Islamic values. Facebook and some other social media tools are blocked in countries such as Iran. This project investigates the importance of social media in the life of Iranians to explore how they present themselves and construct their digital selves. The notion of cultural identity is applied in this research to explore the educational and informative role of social media in the identity formation and cultural representation of Facebook users. This study explores the self-censorship of Iranian adult Facebook users through their online self-representation and communication on the Internet. The data in this qualitative multiple case study have been collected through individual synchronous online interviews with the researcher’s Facebook friends and through the analysis of the participants’ Facebook profiles and activities over a period of six months. The data is analysed with an emphasis on the identity formation of participants through the recognition of the underlying themes. The exploration of online interviews is on the basis of participants’ personal accounts of self-censorship and cultural understanding through using social media. The driven codes and themes have been categorised considering censorship and place of culture on representation of self. Participants were asked to explain their views about censorship and conservatism through using social media. They reported their thoughts about deciding which content to share on Facebook and which to self-censor and their reasons behind these decisions. The codes and themes have been categorised considering censorship and its role in representation of idealised self. The ‘actual self’ showed to be hidden by an individual for different reasons such as its influence on their social status, academic achievements and job opportunities. It is hoped that this research will have implications for education contexts in countries that are experiencing social media filtering by offering an increased understanding of the importance of online communities; which can provide an educational environment to talk and learn about social taboos and constructing adults’ identity in virtual environment and through cultural self-presentation.

Keywords: cultural identity, identity formation, online communities, self-censorship

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931 Social Enterprises over Microfinance Institutions: The Challenges of Governance and Management

Authors: Dean Sinković, Tea Golja, Morena Paulišić

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Upon the end of the vicious war in former Yugoslavia in 1995, international development community widely promoted microfinance as the key development framework to eradicate poverty, create jobs, increase income. Widespread claims were made that microfinance institutions would play vital role in creating a bedrock for sustainable ‘bottom-up’ economic development trajectory, thus, helping newly formed states to find proper way from economic post-war depression. This uplifting neoliberal narrative has no empirical support in the Republic of Croatia. Firstly, the type of enterprises created via microfinance sector are small, unskilled, labor intensive, no technology and with huge debt burden. This results in extremely high failure rates of microenterprises and poor individuals plunging into even deeper poverty, acute indebtedness and social marginalization. Secondly, evidence shows that microcredit is exact reflection of dangerous and destructive sub-prime lending model with ‘boom-to-bust’ scenarios in which benefits are solely extracted by the tiny financial and political elite working around the microfinance sector. We argue that microcredit providers are not proper financial structures through which developing countries should look way out of underdevelopment and poverty. In order to achieve sustainable long-term growth goals, public policy needs to focus on creating, supporting and facilitating the small and mid-size enterprises development. These enterprises should be technically sophisticated, capable of creating new capabilities and innovations, with managerial expertise (skills formation) and inter-connected with other organizations (i.e. clusters, networks, supply chains, etc.). Evidence from South-East Europe suggest that such structures are not created via microfinance model but can be fostered through various forms of social enterprises. Various legal entities may operate as social enterprises: limited liability private company, limited liability public company, cooperative, associations, foundations, institutions, Mutual Insurances and Credit union. Our main hypothesis is that cooperatives are potential agents of social and economic transformation and community development in the region. Financial cooperatives are structures that can foster more efficient allocation of financial resources involving deeper democratic arrangements and more socially just outcomes. In Croatia, pioneers of the first social enterprises were civil society organizations whilst forming a separated legal entity. (i.e. cooperatives, associations, commercial companies working on the principles of returning the investment to the founder). Ever since 1995 cooperatives in Croatia have not grown by pursuing their own internal growth but mostly by relying on external financial support. The greater part of today’s registered cooperatives tend to be agricultural (39%), followed by war veterans cooperatives (38%) and others. There are no financial cooperatives in Croatia. Due to the above mentioned we look at the historical developments and the prevailing social enterprises forms and discuss their advantages and disadvantages as potential agents for social and economic transformation and community development in the region. There is an evident lack of understanding of this business model and of its potential for social and economic development followed by an unfavorable institutional environment. Thus, we discuss the role of governance and management in the formation of social enterprises in Croatia, stressing the challenges for the governance of the country’s social enterprise movement.

Keywords: financial cooperatives, governance and management models, microfinance institutions, social enterprises

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930 Investigating the Impacts on Cyclist Casualty Severity at Roundabouts: A UK Case Study

Authors: Nurten Akgun, Dilum Dissanayake, Neil Thorpe, Margaret C. Bell

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Cycling has gained a great attention with comparable speeds, low cost, health benefits and reducing the impact on the environment. The main challenge associated with cycling is the provision of safety for the people choosing to cycle as their main means of transport. From the road safety point of view, cyclists are considered as vulnerable road users because they are at higher risk of serious casualty in the urban network but more specifically at roundabouts. This research addresses the development of an enhanced mathematical model by including a broad spectrum of casualty related variables. These variables were geometric design measures (approach number of lanes and entry path radius), speed limit, meteorological condition variables (light, weather, road surface) and socio-demographic characteristics (age and gender), as well as contributory factors. Contributory factors included driver’s behavior related variables such as failed to look properly, sudden braking, a vehicle passing too close to a cyclist, junction overshot, failed to judge other person’s path, restart moving off at the junction, poor turn or manoeuvre and disobeyed give-way. Tyne and Wear in the UK were selected as a case study area. The cyclist casualty data was obtained from UK STATS19 National dataset. The reference categories for the regression model were set to slight and serious cyclist casualties. Therefore, binary logistic regression was applied. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that approach number of lanes was statistically significant at the 95% level of confidence. A higher number of approach lanes increased the probability of severity of cyclist casualty occurrence. In addition, sudden braking statistically significantly increased the cyclist casualty severity at the 95% level of confidence. The result concluded that cyclist casualty severity was highly related to approach a number of lanes and sudden braking. Further research should be carried out an in-depth analysis to explore connectivity of sudden braking and approach number of lanes in order to investigate the driver’s behavior at approach locations. The output of this research will inform investment in measure to improve the safety of cyclists at roundabouts.

Keywords: binary logistic regression, casualty severity, cyclist safety, roundabout

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929 Delhi Metro: A Race towards Zero Emission

Authors: Pramit Garg, Vikas Kumar

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In December 2015, all the members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) unanimously adopted the historic Paris Agreement. As per the convention, 197 countries have followed the guidelines of the agreement and have agreed to reduce the use of fossil fuels and also reduce the carbon emission to reach net carbon neutrality by 2050 and reduce the global temperature by 2°C by the year 2100. Globally, transport accounts for 23% of the energy-related CO2 that feeds global warming. Decarbonization of the transport sector is an essential step towards achieving India’s nationally determined contributions and net zero emissions by 2050. Metro rail systems are playing a vital role in the decarbonization of the transport sector as they create metro cities for the “21st-century world” that could ensure “mobility, connectivity, productivity, safety and sustainability” for the populace. Metro rail was introduced in Delhi in 2002 to decarbonize Delhi-National Capital Region and to provide a sustainable mode of public transportation. Metro Rail Projects significantly contribute to pollution reduction and are thus a prerequisite for sustainable development. The Delhi Metro is the 1ˢᵗ metro system in the world to earn carbon credits from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects registered under United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. A good Metro Project with reasonable network coverage attracts a modal shift from various private modes and hence fewer vehicles on the road, thus restraining the pollution at the source. The absence of Greenhouse Gas emissions from the vehicle of modal shift passengers and lower emissions due to decongested roads contribute to the reduction in Green House Gas emissions and hence overall reduction in atmospheric pollution. The reduction in emission during the horizon year 2002 to 2019 has been estimated using emission standards and deterioration factor(s) for different categories of vehicles. Presently, our results indicate that the Delhi Metro system has reduced approximately 17.3% of motorized trips by road resulting in an emission reduction significantly. Overall, Delhi Metro, with an immediate catchment area of 17% of the National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCTD), is helping today to reduce 387 tonnes of emissions per day and 141.2 ktonnes of emissions yearly. The findings indicate that the Metro rail system is driving cities towards a more livable environment.

Keywords: Delhi metro, GHG emission, sustainable public transport, urban transport

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928 The Impact of Speech Style on the Production of Spanish Vowels by Spanish-English Bilinguals and Spanish Monolinguals

Authors: Vivian Franco

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There has been a great deal of research about vowel production of second language learners of Spanish, vowel variation across Spanish dialects, and more recently, research related to Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production based on speech style. However, there is little investigation reported on Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production in regard to task modality by incorporating own comparison groups of monolinguals and late bilinguals. Thus, the present study investigates the influence of speech style on Spanish heritage speakers’ vowel production by comparing Spanish-English early and late bilinguals and Spanish monolinguals. The study was guided by the following research question: How do early bilinguals (heritage speakers) differ/relate to advanced L2 speakers of Spanish (late bilinguals) and Spanish monolinguals in their vowel quality (acoustic distribution) and quantity (duration) based on speech style? The participants were a total of 11 speakers of Spanish: 7 early Spanish-English bilinguals with a similar linguistic background (simultaneous bilinguals of the second generation); 2 advanced L2 speakers of Spanish; and 2 Spanish monolinguals from Mexico. The study consisted of two tasks. The first one adopted a semi-spontaneous style by a solicited narration of life experiences and a description of a favorite movie with the purpose to collect spontaneous speech. The second task was a reading activity in which the participants read two paragraphs of a Mexican literary essay 'La nuez.' This task aimed to obtain a more controlled speech style. From this study, it can be concluded that early bilinguals and monolinguals show a smaller formant vowel space overall compared to the late bilinguals in both speech styles. In terms of formant values by stress, the early bilinguals and the late bilinguals resembled in the semi-spontaneous speech style as their unstressed vowel space overlapped with that of the unstressed vowels different from the monolinguals who displayed a slightly reduced unstressed vowel space. For the controlled data, the early bilinguals were similar to the monolinguals as their stressed and unstressed vowel spaces overlapped in comparison to the late bilinguals who showed a more clear reduction of unstressed vowel space. In regard to stress, the monolinguals revealed longer vowel duration overall. However, findings of duration by stress showed that the early bilinguals and the monolinguals remained stable with shorter values of unstressed vowels in the semi-spontaneous data and longer duration in the controlled data when compared to the late bilinguals who displayed opposite results. These findings suggest an implication for Spanish heritage speakers and L2 Spanish vowels research as it has been frequently argued that Spanish bilinguals differ from the Spanish monolinguals by their vowel reduction and centralized vowel space influenced by English. However, some Spanish varieties are characterized by vowel reduction especially in certain phonetic contexts so that some vowels present more weakening than others. Consequently, it would not be conclusive to affirm an English influence on the Spanish of these bilinguals.

Keywords: Spanish-English bilinguals, Spanish monolinguals, spontaneous and controlled speech, vowel production.

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927 Analyzing the Participation of Young People in Politics: An Exploratory Study Applied on Motivation in Croatia

Authors: Valentina Piric, Maja Martinovic, Zoran Barac

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The application of marketing to the domain of politics has become relevant in recent times. With this article the authors wanted to explore the issue of the current political engagement among young people in Croatia. The question is what makes young people (age 18-30) politically active in young democracies such as that of the Republic of Croatia. Therefore, the objective of this study was to discover the real or hidden motivations behind the decision to actively participate in politics among young members of the two largest political parties in the country – the Croatian Democratic Union and the Social Democratic Party of Croatia. The study expected to find that the motivation for political engagement of young people is often connected with a possible achievement of individual goals and egoistic needs such as: self-acceptance, social success, financial success, prestige, reputation, status, recognition from the others etc. It was also expected that, due to the poor economic and social situation in the country, young people feel an increasing disconnection from politics. Additionally, the authors expected to find that there is a huge potential to engage young people in the political life of the country through a proper and more interactive use of marketing communication campaigns and social media platforms, with an emphasis on highly ethical motives of political activity and their benefits to society. All respondents included in the quantitative survey (sample size [N=100]) are active in one of the two largest political parties in Croatia. The sampling and distribution of the survey occurred in the field in September 2016. The results of the survey demonstrate that in Croatia, the way young people feel about politics and act accordingly, are in fact similar to what the theory describes. The research findings reveal that young people are politically active; however, the challenge is to find a way to motivate even more young people in Croatia to actively participate in the political and democratic processes in the country and to encourage them to see additional benefits out of this practice, not only related to their individual motives, but related more to the well-being of Croatia as a country and of every member of society. The research also discovered a huge potential for political marketing communication possibilities, especially related to interactive social media. It is possible that the social media channels have a stronger influence on the decision-making process among young people when compared to groups of reference. The level of interest in politics among young Croatians varies; some of them are almost indifferent, whilst others express a serious interest in different ways to actively contribute to the political life of the country, defining a participation in the political life of their country almost as their moral obligation. However, additional observations and further research need to be conducted to get a clearer and more precise picture about the interest in politics among young people in Croatia and their social potential.

Keywords: Croatia, marketing communication, motivation, politics, young people

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926 Polypeptide Modified Carbon Nanotubes – Mediated GFP Gene Transfection for H1299 Cells and Toxicity Assessment

Authors: Pei-Ying Lo, Jing-Hao Ciou, Kai-Cheng Yang, Jia-Huei Zheng, Shih-Hsiang Huang, Kuen-Chan Lee, Er-Chieh Cho

Abstract:

As-produced CNTs are insoluble in all organic solvents and aqueous solutions have imposed limitations to the use of CNTs. Therefore, how to debundle carbon nanotubes and to modify them for further uses is an important issue. There are several methods for the dispersion of CNTs in water using covalent attachment of hydrophilic groups to the surface of tubes. These methods, however, alter the electronic structure of the nanotubes by disrupting the network of sp2 hybridized carbons. In order to keep the nanotubes’ intrinsic mechanical and electrical properties intact, non-covalent interactions are increasingly being explored as an alternative route for dispersion. Apart from conventional surfactants such as sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS) or sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate (SDBS) which are highly effective in dispersing CNTs, biopolymers have received much attention as dispersing agents due to the anticipated biocompatibility of the dispersed CNTs. Also, The pyrenyl group is known to interact strongly with the basal plane of graphene via π-stacking. In this study, a highly re-dispersible biopolymer is reported for the synthesis of pyrene-modified poly-L-lysine (PBPL) and poly(D-Glu, D-Lys) (PGLP). To provide the evidence of the safety of the PBPL/CNT & PGLP/CNT materials we use in this study, H1299 and HCT116 cells were incubated with PBPL/CNT & PGLP/CNT materials for toxicity analysis, MTS assays. The results from MTS assays indicated that no significant cellular toxicity was shown in H1299 and HCT116 cells. Furthermore, the fluorescence marker fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC) was added to PBPL & PGLP dispersions. From the fluorescent measurements showed that the chemical functionalisation of the PBPL/CNT & PGLP/CNT conjugates with the fluorescence marker were successful. The fluorescent PBPL/CNT & PGLP/CNT conjugates could find application in medical imaging. In the next step, the GFP gene is immobilized onto PBPL/CNT conjugates by introducing electrostatic interaction. GFP-transfected cells that emitted fluorescence were imaged and counted under a fluorescence microscope. Due to the unique biocompatibility of PBPL modified CNTs, the GFP gene could be transported into H1299 cells without using antibodies. The applicability of such soluble and chemically functionalised polypeptide/CNT conjugates in biomedicine is currently investigated. We expect that this polypeptide/CNT system will be a safe and multi-functional nanomedical delivery platform and contribute to future medical therapy.

Keywords: carbon nanotube, nanotoxicology, GFP transfection, polypeptide/CNT hybrids

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925 Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Calculations of the Wind Turbine with an Adjustable Working Surface

Authors: Zdzislaw Kaminski, Zbigniew Czyz, Krzysztof Skiba

Abstract:

This paper discusses the CFD simulation of a flow around a rotor of a Vertical Axis Wind Turbine. Numerical simulation, unlike experiments, enables us to validate project assumptions when it is designed and avoid a costly preparation of a model or a prototype for a bench test. CFD simulation enables us to compare characteristics of aerodynamic forces acting on rotor working surfaces and define operational parameters like torque or power generated by a turbine assembly. This research focused on the rotor with the blades capable of modifying their working surfaces, i.e. absorbing wind kinetic energy. The operation of this rotor is based on adjusting angular aperture α of the top and bottom parts of the blades mounted on an axis. If this angular aperture α increases, the working surface which absorbs wind kinetic energy also increases. The operation of turbines is characterized by parameters like the angular aperture of blades, power, torque, speed for a given wind speed. These parameters have an impact on the efficiency of assemblies. The distribution of forces acting on the working surfaces in our turbine changes according to the angular velocity of the rotor. Moreover, the resultant force from the force acting on an advancing blade and retreating blade should be as high as possible. This paper is part of the research to improve an efficiency of a rotor assembly. Therefore, using simulation, the courses of the above parameters were studied in three full rotations individually for each of the blades for three angular apertures of blade working surfaces, i.e. 30 °, 60 °, 90 °, at three wind speeds, i.e. 4 m / s, 6 m / s, 8 m / s and rotor speeds ranging from 100 to 500 rpm. Finally, there were created the characteristics of torque coefficients and power as a function of time for each blade separately and for the entire rotor. Accordingly, the correlation between the turbine rotor power as a function of wind speed for varied values of rotor rotational speed. By processing this data, the correlation between the power of the turbine rotor and its rotational speed for each of the angular aperture of the working surfaces was specified. Finally, the optimal values, i.e. of the highest output power for given wind speeds were read. The research results in receiving the basic characteristics of turbine rotor power as a function of wind speed for the three angular apertures of the blades. Given the nature of rotor operation, the growth in the output turbine can be estimated if angular aperture of the blades increases. The controlled adjustment of angle α enables a smooth adjustment of power generated by a turbine rotor. If wind speed is significant, this type of adjustment enables this output power to remain at the same level (by reducing angle α) with no risk of damaging a construction. This work has been financed by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, numerical analysis, renewable energy, wind turbine

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924 Multicenter Baseline Survey to Outline Antimicrobial Prescribing Practices at Six Public Sectortertiary Care Hospitals in a Low Middle Income Country

Authors: N. Khursheed, M. Fatima, S. Jamal, A. Raza, S. Rattani, Q. Ahsan, A. Rasheed, M. Jawed

Abstract:

Introduction: Antibiotics are among the commonly prescribed medicines to treat bacterial infections. Their misuse intensifies resistance, and overuse incurs heavy losses to the healthcare system in terms of increased treatment costs and enhanced disease burden. Studies show that 40% of empirically used antibiotics are irrationally utilized. The objective of this study was to evaluate prescribing pattern of antibiotics at six public sector tertiary care hospitals across Pakistan. Methods: A multicenter cross-sectional point prevalence survey (PPS) was conducted in selected wards of six public sector tertiary care hospitals in Pakistan as part of the Clinical Engagement program by Fleming Fund Country Grant Pakistan in collaboration with Indus Hospital & Health Network (IHHN) from February to March 2021, these included Jinnah Postgraduate Medical Center and Dr. Ruth K. M. Pfau Civil Hospital from Karachi, Sheikh Zayed Hospital Lahore, Nishtar Medical University Hospital Multan, Medical Teaching Institute Hayatabad Medical Complex Peshawar, and Provincial Headquarters Hospital Gilgit. WHO PPS methodology was used for data collection (Hospital, ward, and patient level data was collected). Data was entered into the open-source Kobo Collect application and was analyzed using SPSS (version 22.0). Findings: Medical records of 837 in-patients were surveyed, of which the prevalence of antibiotics use was 78.5%. The most commonly prescribed antimicrobial was Ceftriaxone (21.7%) which is categorized in the Watch group of WHO AWaRe Classification, followed by Metronidazole (17.3%), Cefoperazone/Sulbactam (8.4%), Co-Amoxiclav (6.3%) and Piperacillin/Tazobactam (5.9%). The antibiotics were prescribed largely for surgical prophylaxis (36.7%), followed by community-acquired infections (24.7%). One antibiotic was prescribed to 46.7%, two to 39.9%, and three or more to 12.5 %. Two of six (30%) hospitals had functional drug and therapeutic committees, three (50%) had infection prevention and control committees, and one facility had an antibiotic formulary. Conclusion: Findings demonstrate high consumption of broad-spectrum antimicrobials and emphasizes the importance of expanding the antimicrobial stewardship program. Mentoring clinical teams will help to rationalize antimicrobial use.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, antimicrobial stewardship, point prevalence survey, antibiotics

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923 Development of Loop Mediated Isothermal Amplification (Lamp) Assay for the Diagnosis of Ovine Theileriosis

Authors: Muhammad Fiaz Qamar, Uzma Mehreen, Muhammad Arfan Zaman, Kazim Ali

Abstract:

Ovine Theileriosis is a world-wide concern, especially in tropical and subtropical areas, due to having tick abundance that has received less awareness in different developed and developing areas due to less worth of sheep, low to the middle level of infection in different small ruminants herd. Across Asia, the prevalence reports have been conducted to provide equivalent calculation of flock and animal level prevalence of Theileriosisin animals. It is a challenge for veterinarians to timely diagnosis & control of Theileriosis and famers because of the nature of the organism and inadequacy of restricted plans to control. All most work is based upon the development of such a technique which should be farmer-friendly, less expensive, and easy to perform into the field. By the timely diagnosis of this disease will decrease the irrational use of the drugs, and other plan was to determine the prevalence of Theileriosis in District Jhang by using the conventional method, PCR and qPCR, and LAMP. We quantify the molecular epidemiology of T.lestoquardiin sheep from Jhang districts, Punjab, Pakistan. In this study, we concluded that the overall prevalence of Theileriosis was (32/350*100= 9.1%) in sheep by using Giemsa staining technique, whereas (48/350*100= 13%) is observed by using PCR technique (56/350*100=16%) in qPCR and the LAMP technique have shown up to this much prevalence percentage (60/350*100= 17.1%). The specificity and sensitivity also calculated in comparison with the PCR and LAMP technique. Means more positive results have been shown when the diagnosis has been done with the help of LAMP. And there is little bit of difference between the positive results of PCR and qPCR, and the least positive animals was by using Giemsa staining technique/conventional method. If we talk about the specificity and sensitivity of the LAMP as compared to PCR, The cross tabulation shows that the results of sensitivity of LAMP counted was 94.4%, and specificity of LAMP counted was 78%. Advances in scientific field must be upon reality based ideas which can lessen the gaps and hurdles in the way of scientific research; the lamp is one of such techniques which have done wonders in adding value and helping human at large. It is such a great biological diagnostic tools and has helped a lot in the proper diagnosis and treatment of certain diseases. Other methods for diagnosis, such as culture techniques and serological techniques, have exposed humans with great danger. However, with the help of molecular diagnostic technique like LAMP, exposure to such pathogens is being avoided in the current era Most prompt and tentative diagnosis can be made using LAMP. Other techniques like PCR has many disadvantages when compared to LAMP as PCR is a relatively expensive, time consuming, and very complicated procedure while LAMP is relatively cheap, easy to perform, less time consuming, and more accurate. LAMP technique has removed hurdles in the way of scientific research and molecular diagnostics, making it approachable to poor and developing countries.

Keywords: distribution, thelaria, LAMP, primer sequences, PCR

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922 p-Type Multilayer MoS₂ Enabled by Plasma Doping for Ultraviolet Photodetectors Application

Authors: Xiao-Mei Zhang, Sian-Hong Tseng, Ming-Yen Lu

Abstract:

Two-dimensional (2D) transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDCs), such as MoS₂, have attracted considerable attention owing to the unique optical and electronic properties related to its 2D ultrathin atomic layer structure. MoS₂ is becoming prevalent in post-silicon digital electronics and in highly efficient optoelectronics due to its extremely low thickness and its tunable band gap (Eg = 1-2 eV). For low-power, high-performance complementary logic applications, both p- and n-type MoS₂ FETs (NFETs and PFETs) must be developed. NFETs with an electron accumulation channel can be obtained using unintentionally doped n-type MoS₂. However, the fabrication of MoS₂ FETs with complementary p-type characteristics is challenging due to the significant difficulty of injecting holes into its inversion channel. Plasma treatments with different species (including CF₄, SF₆, O₂, and CHF₃) have also been found to achieve the desired property modifications of MoS₂. In this work, we demonstrated a p-type multilayer MoS₂ enabled by selective-area doping using CHF₃ plasma treatment. Compared with single layer MoS₂, multilayer MoS₂ can carry a higher drive current due to its lower bandgap and multiple conduction channels. Moreover, it has three times the density of states at its minimum conduction band. Large-area growth of MoS₂ films on 300 nm thick SiO₂/Si substrate is carried out by thermal decomposition of ammonium tetrathiomolybdate, (NH₄)₂MoS₄, in a tube furnace. A two-step annealing process is conducted to synthesize MoS₂ films. For the first step, the temperature is set to 280 °C for 30 min in an N₂ rich environment at 1.8 Torr. This is done to transform (NH₄)₂MoS₄ into MoS₃. To further reduce MoS₃ into MoS₂, the second step of annealing is performed. For the second step, the temperature is set to 750 °C for 30 min in a reducing atmosphere consisting of 90% Ar and 10% H₂ at 1.8 Torr. The grown MoS₂ films are subjected to out-of-plane doping by CHF₃ plasma treatment using a Dry-etching system (ULVAC original NLD-570). The radiofrequency power of this dry-etching system is set to 100 W and the pressure is set to 7.5 mTorr. The final thickness of the treated samples is obtained by etching for 30 s. Back-gated MoS₂ PFETs were presented with an on/off current ratio in the order of 10³ and a field-effect mobility of 65.2 cm²V⁻¹s⁻¹. The MoS₂ PFETs photodetector exhibited ultraviolet (UV) photodetection capability with a rapid response time of 37 ms and exhibited modulation of the generated photocurrent by back-gate voltage. This work suggests the potential application of the mild plasma-doped p-type multilayer MoS₂ in UV photodetectors for environmental monitoring, human health monitoring, and biological analysis.

Keywords: photodetection, p-type doping, multilayers, MoS₂

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921 Spatial Heterogeneity of Urban Land Use in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on DMSP/OLS Data

Authors: Liang Zhou, Qinke Sun

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Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as an example, using long-term nighttime lighting data from DMSP/OLS from 1992 to 2012, support vector machine classification (SVM) was used to quantitatively extract urban built-up areas of economic belts, and spatial analysis of expansion intensity index, standard deviation ellipse, etc. was introduced. The model conducts detailed and in-depth discussions on the strength, direction, and type of the expansion of the middle and lower reaches of the economic belt and the key node cities. The results show that: (1) From 1992 to 2012, the built-up areas of the major cities in the Yangtze River Valley showed a rapid expansion trend. The built-up area expanded by 60,392 km², and the average annual expansion rate was 31%, that is, from 9615 km² in 1992 to 70007 km² in 2012. The spatial gradient analysis of the watershed shows that the expansion of urban built-up areas in the middle and lower reaches of the river basin takes Shanghai as the leading force, and the 'bottom-up' model shows an expanding pattern of 'upstream-downstream-middle-range' declines. The average annual rate of expansion is 36% and 35%, respectively. 17% of which the midstream expansion rate is about 50% of the upstream and downstream. (2) The analysis of expansion intensity shows that the urban expansion intensity in the Yangtze River Basin has generally shown an upward trend, the downstream region has continued to rise, and the upper and middle reaches have experienced different amplitude fluctuations. To further analyze the strength of urban expansion at key nodes, Chengdu, Chongqing, and Wuhan in the upper and middle reaches maintain a high degree of consistency with the intensity of regional expansion. Node cities with Shanghai as the core downstream continue to maintain a high level of expansion. (3) The standard deviation ellipse analysis shows that the overall center of gravity of the Yangtze River basin city is located in Anqing City, Anhui Province, and it showed a phenomenon of reciprocating movement from 1992 to 2012. The nighttime standard deviation ellipse distribution range increased from 61.96 km² to 76.52 km². The growth of the major axis of the ellipse was significantly larger than that of the minor axis. It had obvious east-west axiality, in which the nighttime lights in the downstream area occupied in the entire luminosity scale urban system leading position.

Keywords: urban space, support vector machine, spatial characteristics, night lights, Yangtze River Economic Belt

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920 Analysis of Aspergillus fumigatus IgG Serologic Cut-Off Values to Increase Diagnostic Specificity of Allergic Bronchopulmonary Aspergillosis

Authors: Sushmita Roy Chowdhury, Steve Holding, Sujoy Khan

Abstract:

The immunogenic responses of the lung towards the fungus Aspergillus fumigatus may range from invasive aspergillosis in the immunocompromised, fungal ball or infection within a cavity in the lung in those with structural lung lesions, or allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA). Patients with asthma or cystic fibrosis are particularly predisposed to ABPA. There are consensus guidelines that have established criteria for diagnosis of ABPA, but uncertainty remains on the serologic cut-off values that would increase the diagnostic specificity of ABPA. We retrospectively analyzed 80 patients with severe asthma and evidence of peripheral blood eosinophilia ( > 500) over the last 3 years who underwent all serologic tests to exclude ABPA. Total IgE, specific IgE and specific IgG levels against Aspergillus fumigatus were measured using ImmunoCAP Phadia-100 (Thermo Fisher Scientific, Sweden). The Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria (obligate criteria: asthma or cystic fibrosis, total IgE > 1000 IU/ml or > 417 kU/L and positive specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus or skin test positivity; with ≥ 2 of peripheral eosinophilia, positive specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus and consistent radiographic opacities) was used in the clinical workup for the final diagnosis of ABPA. Patients were divided into 3 groups - definite, possible, and no evidence of ABPA. Specific IgG Aspergillus fumigatus levels were not used to assign the patients into any of the groups. Of 80 patients (males 48, females 32; mean age 53.9 years ± SD 15.8) selected for the analysis, there were 30 patients who had positive specific IgE against Aspergillus fumigatus (37.5%). 13 patients fulfilled the Modified ISHAM working group 2013 criteria of ABPA (‘definite’), while 15 patients were ‘possible’ ABPA and 52 did not fulfill the criteria (not ABPA). As IgE levels were not normally distributed, median levels were used in the analysis. Median total IgE levels of patients with definite and possible ABPA were 2144 kU/L and 2597 kU/L respectively (non-significant), while median specific IgE Aspergillus fumigatus at 4.35 kUA/L and 1.47 kUA/L respectively were significantly different (comparison of standard deviations F-statistic 3.2267, significance level p=0.040). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus in the three groups (definite, possible and no evidence of ABPA) were compared using ANOVA (Statgraphics Centurion Professional XV, Statpoint Inc). Mean levels of IgG anti-Aspergillus fumigatus (Gm3) in definite ABPA was 125.17 mgA/L ( ± SD 54.84, with 95%CI 92.03-158.32), while mean Gm3 levels in possible and no ABPA were 18.61 mgA/L and 30.05 mgA/L respectively. ANOVA showed a significant difference between the definite group and the other groups (p < 0.001). This was confirmed using multiple range tests (Fisher's least significant difference procedure). There was no significant difference between the possible ABPA and not ABPA groups (p > 0.05). The study showed that a sizeable proportion of patients with asthma are sensitized to Aspergillus fumigatus in this part of India. A higher cut-off value of Gm3 ≥ 80 mgA/L provides a higher serologic specificity towards definite ABPA. Long-term studies would provide us more information if those patients with 'possible' APBA and positive Gm3 later develop clear ABPA, and are different from the Gm3 negative group in this respect. Serologic testing with clear defined cut-offs are a valuable adjunct in the diagnosis of ABPA.

Keywords: allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, Aspergillus fumigatus, asthma, IgE level

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919 Palliative Care Referral Behavior Among Nurse Practitioners in Hospital Medicine

Authors: Sharon Jackson White

Abstract:

Purpose: Nurse practitioners (NPs) practicing within hospital medicine play a significant role in caring for patients who might benefit from palliative care (PC) services. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior, the purpose of this study was to examine the relationships among facilitators to referral, barriers to referral, self-efficacy with end-of-life discussions, history of referral, and referring to PC among NPs in hospital medicine. Hypotheses: 1) Perceived facilitators to referral will be associated with a higher history of referral and a higher number of referrals to PC. 2) Perceived barriers to referral will be associated with a lower history of referral and a lower number of referrals to PC. 3) Increased self-efficacy with end-of-life discussions will be associated with a higher history of referral and a higher number of referrals to PC. 4) Perceived facilitators to referral, perceived barriers to referral, and self–efficacy with end-of-life discussions will contribute to a significant variance in the history of referral to PC. 5) Perceived facilitators to referral, perceived barriers to referral, and self–efficacy with end-of-life discussions will contribute to a significant variance in the number of referrals to PC. Significance: Previous studies of referring patients to PC within the hospital setting care have focused on physician practices. Identifying factors that influence NPs referring hospitalized patients to PC is essential to ensure that patients have access to these important services. This study incorporates the SNRS mission of advancing nursing research through the dissemination of research findings and the promotion of nursing science. Methods: A cross-sectional, predictive correlational study was conducted. History of referral to PC, facilitators to referring to PC, barriers to referring to PC, self-efficacy in end-of-life discussions, and referral to PC were measured using the PC referral case study survey, facilitators and barriers to PC referral survey, and self-assessment with end-of-life discussions survey. Data were analyzed descriptively and with Pearson’s Correlation, Spearman’s Rho, point-biserial correlation, multiple regression, logistic regression, Chi-Square test, and the Mann-Whitney U test. Results: Only one facilitator (PC team being helpful with establishing goals of care) was significantly associated with referral to PC. Three variables were statistically significant in relation to the history of referring to PC: “Inclined to refer: PC can help decrease the length of stay in hospital”, “Most inclined to refer: Patients with serious illnesses and/or poor prognoses”, and “Giving bad news to a patient or family member”. No predictor variables contributed a significant variance in the number of referrals to PC for all three case studies. There were no statistically significant results showing a relationship between the history of referral and referral to PC. All five hypotheses were partially supported. Discussion: Findings from this study emphasize the need for further research on NPs who work in hospital settings and what factors influence their behaviors of referring to PC. Since there is an increase in NPs practicing within hospital settings, future studies should use a larger sample size and incorporate hospital medicine NPs and other types of NPs that work in hospitals.

Keywords: palliative care, nurse practitioners, hospital medicine, referral

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918 Dynamic Characterization of Shallow Aquifer Groundwater: A Lab-Scale Approach

Authors: Anthony Credoz, Nathalie Nief, Remy Hedacq, Salvador Jordana, Laurent Cazes

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Groundwater monitoring is classically performed in a network of piezometers in industrial sites. Groundwater flow parameters, such as direction, sense and velocity, are deduced from indirect measurements between two or more piezometers. Groundwater sampling is generally done on the whole column of water inside each borehole to provide concentration values for each piezometer location. These flow and concentration values give a global ‘static’ image of potential plume of contaminants evolution in the shallow aquifer with huge uncertainties in time and space scales and mass discharge dynamic. TOTAL R&D Subsurface Environmental team is challenging this classical approach with an innovative dynamic way of characterization of shallow aquifer groundwater. The current study aims at optimizing the tools and methodologies for (i) a direct and multilevel measurement of groundwater velocities in each piezometer and, (ii) a calculation of potential flux of dissolved contaminant in the shallow aquifer. Lab-scale experiments have been designed to test commercial and R&D tools in a controlled sandbox. Multiphysics modeling were performed and took into account Darcy equation in porous media and Navier-Stockes equation in the borehole. The first step of the current study focused on groundwater flow at porous media/piezometer interface. Huge uncertainties from direct flow rate measurements in the borehole versus Darcy flow rate in the porous media were characterized during experiments and modeling. The structure and location of the tools in the borehole also impacted the results and uncertainties of velocity measurement. In parallel, direct-push tool was tested and presented more accurate results. The second step of the study focused on mass flux of dissolved contaminant in groundwater. Several active and passive commercial and R&D tools have been tested in sandbox and reactive transport modeling has been performed to validate the experiments at the lab-scale. Some tools will be selected and deployed in field assays to better assess the mass discharge of dissolved contaminants in an industrial site. The long-term subsurface environmental strategy is targeting an in-situ, real-time, remote and cost-effective monitoring of groundwater.

Keywords: dynamic characterization, groundwater flow, lab-scale, mass flux

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917 Chinese Acupuncture: A Potential Treatment for Autism Rat Model via Improving Synaptic Function

Authors: Sijie Chen, Xiaofang Chen, Juan Wang, Yingying Zhang, Yu Hong, Wanyu Zhuang, Xinxin Huang, Ping Ou, Longsheng Huang

Abstract:

Purpose: Autistic symptom improvement can be observed in children treated with acupuncture, but the mechanism is still being explored. In the present study, we used scalp acupuncture to treat autism rat model, and then their improvement in the abnormal behaviors and specific mechanisms behind were revealed by detecting animal behaviors, analyzing the RNA sequencing of the prefrontal cortex(PFC), and observing the ultrastructure of PFC neurons under the transmission electron microscope. Methods: On gestational day 12.5, Wistar rats were given valproic acid (VPA) by intraperitoneal injection, and their offspring were considered to be reliable rat models of autism. They were randomized to VPA or VPA-acupuncture group (n=8). Offspring of Wistar pregnant rats that were simultaneously injected with saline were randomly selected as the wild-type group (WT). VPA_acupuncture group rats received acupuncture intervention at 23 days of age for 4 weeks, and the other two groups followed without intervention. After the intervention, all experimental rats underwent behavioral tests. Immediately afterward, they were euthanized by cervical dislocation, and their prefrontal cortex was isolated for RNA sequencing and transmission electron microscopy. Results: The main results are as follows: 1. Animal behavioural tests: VPA group rats showed more anxiety-like behaviour and repetitive, stereotyped behaviour than WT group rats. While VPA group rats showed less spatial exploration ability, activity level, social interaction, and social novelty preference than WT group rats. It was gratifying to observe that acupuncture indeed improved these abnormal behaviors of autism rat model. 2. RNA-sequencing: The three groups of rats differed in the expression and enrichment pathways of multiple genes related to synaptic function, neural signal transduction, and circadian rhythm regulation. Our experiments indicated that acupuncture can alleviate the major symptoms of ASD by improving these neurological abnormalities. 3. Under the transmission electron microscopy, several lysosomes and mitochondrial structural abnormalities were observed in the prefrontal neurons of VPA group rats, which were manifested as atrophy of the mitochondrial membran, blurring or disappearance of the mitochondrial cristae, and even vacuolization. Moreover, the number of synapses and synaptic vesicles was relatively small. Conversely, the mitochondrial structure of rats in the WT group and VPA_acupuncture was normal, and the number of synapses and synaptic vesicles was relatively large. Conclusion: Acupuncture effectively improved the abnormal behaviors of autism rat model and the ultrastructure of the PFC neurons, which might worked by improving their abnormal synaptic function, synaptic plasticity and promoting neuronal signal transduction.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, acupuncture, animal behavior, RNA sequencing, transmission electron microscope

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916 Experimental Investigation on Tensile Durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) Rebar Embedded in High Performance Concrete

Authors: Yuan Yue, Wen-Wei Wang

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The objective of this research is to comprehensively evaluate the impact of alkaline environments on the durability of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polymer (GFRP) reinforcements in concrete structures and further explore their potential value within the construction industry. Specifically, we investigate the effects of two widely used high-performance concrete (HPC) materials on the durability of GFRP bars when embedded within them under varying temperature conditions. A total of 279 GFRP bar specimens were manufactured for microcosmic and mechanical performance tests. Among them, 270 specimens were used to test the residual tensile strength after 120 days of immersion, while 9 specimens were utilized for microscopic testing to analyze degradation damage. SEM techniques were employed to examine the microstructure of GFRP and cover concrete. Unidirectional tensile strength experiments were conducted to determine the remaining tensile strength after corrosion. The experimental variables consisted of four types of concrete (engineering cementitious composite (ECC), ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC), and two types of ordinary concrete with different compressive strengths) as well as three acceleration temperatures (20, 40, and 60℃). The experimental results demonstrate that high-performance concrete (HPC) offers superior protection for GFRP bars compared to ordinary concrete. Two types of HPC enhance durability through different mechanisms: one by reducing the pH of the concrete pore fluid and the other by decreasing permeability. For instance, ECC improves embedded GFRP's durability by lowering the pH of the pore fluid. After 120 days of immersion at 60°C under accelerated conditions, ECC (pH=11.5) retained 68.99% of its strength, while PC1 (pH=13.5) retained 54.88%. On the other hand, UHPC enhances FRP steel's durability by increasing porosity and compactness in its protective layer to reinforce FRP reinforcement's longevity. Due to fillers present in UHPC, it typically exhibits lower porosity, higher densities, and greater resistance to permeation compared to PC2 with similar pore fluid pH levels, resulting in varying degrees of durability for GFRP bars embedded in UHPC and PC2 after 120 days of immersion at a temperature of 60°C - with residual strengths being 66.32% and 60.89%, respectively. Furthermore, SEM analysis revealed no noticeable evidence indicating fiber deterioration in any examined specimens, thus suggesting that uneven stress distribution resulting from interface segregation and matrix damage emerges as a primary causative factor for tensile strength reduction in GFRP rather than fiber corrosion. Moreover, long-term prediction models were utilized to calculate residual strength values over time for reinforcement embedded in HPC under high temperature and high humidity conditions - demonstrating that approximately 75% of its initial strength was retained by reinforcement embedded in HPC after 100 years of service.

Keywords: GFRP bars, HPC, degeneration, durability, residual tensile strength.

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915 The Functionality of Ovarian Follicle on Steroid Hormone Secretion under Heat Stress

Authors: Petnamnueng Dettipponpong, Shuen E. Chen

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Heat stress is known to have negative effects on reproductive functions, such as follicular development and ovulation. This study aimed to investigate the specific effects of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion of ovarian follicle cells, particularly in relation to the expression of Apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and microsomal triglyceride transfer protein (MTP). The aim of the study was to understand the impact of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion in ovarian follicle cells and to explore the role of ApoB and MTP in this process. Primary granulosa and theca cells were collected from follicles and cultured under heat stress conditions (42 °C) for various time periods. Controls were maintained under normal conditions (37.5 °C ). The culture medium was collected at different time points to measure levels of progesterone and estradiol using ELISA kits. ApoB and MTP expression levels were analyzed using homemade antibodies and western blot. Data were assessed by a one-way ANOVA comparison test with Duncan’s new multiple-range test. Results were expressed as mean±S.E. Difference was considered significant at P<0.05. The results showed that heat stress significantly increased progesterone secretion in granulosa cells, with the peak observed after 13 hours of recovery under thermoneutral conditions. Estradiol secretion by theca cells was not affected. Heat stress also had a significant negative effect on granulosa cell viability. Additionally, the expression of ApoB and MTP was found to be differentially regulated by heat stress. ApoB expression in theca cells was transiently promoted, while ApoB expression in granulosa cells was consistently suppressed. MTP expression increased after 5 hours of recovery in both cell types. These findings suggest a mechanism by which chicken follicle cells export cellular lipids as very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) in response to thermal stress. These contribute to our understanding of the role of ApoB and MTP steroidogenesis and lipid metabolism under heat stress conditions. The study involved the collection of primary granulosa and theca cells, culture under different temperature conditions, and analysis of the culture medium for hormone levels using ELISA kits. ApoB and MTP expression levels were assessed using homemade antibodies and western blot. This study aimed to address the effects of heat stress on steroid hormone secretion in ovarian follicle cells, as well as the role of ApoB and MTP in this process. The study demonstrates that heat stress stimulates steroidogenesis in granulosa cells, affecting progesterone secretion. ApoB and MTP expression were found to be differentially regulated by heat stress, indicating a potential mechanism for the export of cellular lipids in response to thermal stress.

Keywords: heat stress, granulosa cells, theca cells, steroidogenesis, chicken, apolipoprotein B, microsomal triglyceride transfer protein

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914 Relationship between Pushing Behavior and Subcortical White Matter Lesion in the Acute Phase after Stroke

Authors: Yuji Fujino, Kazu Amimoto, Kazuhiro Fukata, Masahide Inoue, Hidetoshi Takahashi, Shigeru Makita

Abstract:

Aim: Pusher behavior (PB) is a disorder in which stroke patients shift their body weight toward the affected side of the body (the hemiparetic side) and push away from the non-hemiparetic side. These patients often use further pushing to resist any attempts to correct their position to upright. It is known that the subcortical white matter lesion (SWML) usually correlates of gait or balance function in stroke patients. However, it is unclear whether the SWML influences PB. The purpose of this study was to investigate if the damage of SWML affects the severity of PB on acute stroke patients. Methods: Fourteen PB patients without thalamic or cortical lesions (mean age 73.4 years, 17.5 days from onset) participated in this study. Evaluation of PB was performed according to the Scale for Contraversive Pushing (SCP) for sitting and/or standing. We used modified criteria wherein the SCP subscale scores in each section of the scale were >0. As a clinical measurement, patients were evaluated by the Stroke Impairment Assessment Set (SIAS). For the depiction of SWML, we used T2-weighted fluid-attenuated inversion-recovery imaging. The degree of damage on SWML was assessed using the Fazekas scale. Patients were divided into two groups in the presence of SWML (SWML+ group; Fazekas scale grade 1-3, SWML- group; Fazekas scale grade 0). The independent t-test was used to compare the SCP and SIAS. This retrospective study was approved by the Ethics Committee. Results: In SWML+ group, the SCP was 3.7±1.0 points (mean±SD), the SIAS was 28.0 points (median). In SWML- group, the SCP was 2.0±0.2 points, and the SIAS was 31.5 points. The SCP was significantly higher in SWML+ group than in SWML- group (p<0.05). The SIAS was not significant in both groups (p>0.05). Discussion: It has been considered that the posterior thalamus is the neural structures that process the afferent sensory signals mediating graviceptive information about upright body orientation in humans. Therefore, many studies reported that PB was typically associated with unilateral lesions of the posterior thalamus. However, the result indicates that these extra-thalamic brain areas also contribute to the network controlling upright body posture. Therefore, SMWL might induce dysfunction through malperfusion in distant thalamic or other structurally intact neural structures. This study had a small sample size. Therefore, future studies should be performed with a large number of PB patients. Conclusion: The present study suggests that SWML can be definitely associated with PB. The patients with SWML may be severely incapacitating.

Keywords: pushing behavior, subcortical white matter lesion, acute phase, stroke

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913 Beyond Objectification: Moderation Analysis of Trauma and Overexcitability Dynamics in Women

Authors: Ritika Chaturvedi

Abstract:

Introduction: Sexual objectification, characterized by the reduction of an individual to a mere object of sexual desire, remains a pervasive societal issue with profound repercussions on individual well-being. Such experiences, often rooted in systemic and cultural norms, have long-lasting implications for mental and emotional health. This study aims to explore the intricate relationship between experiences of sexual objectification and insidious trauma, further investigating the potential moderating effects of overexcitabilities as proposed by Dabrowski's theory of positive disintegration. Methodology: The research involved a comprehensive cohort of 204 women, spanning ages from 18 to 65 years. Participants were tasked with completing self-administered questionnaires designed to capture their experiences with sexual objectification. Additionally, the questionnaire assessed symptoms indicative of insidious trauma and explored overexcitabilities across five distinct domains: emotional, intellectual, psychomotor, sensory, and imaginational. Employing advanced statistical techniques, including multiple regression and moderation analysis, the study sought to decipher the intricate interplay among these variables. Findings: The study's results revealed a compelling positive correlation between experiences of sexual objectification and the onset of symptoms indicative of insidious trauma. This correlation underscores the profound and detrimental effects of sexual objectification on an individual's psychological well-being. Interestingly, the moderation analyses introduced a nuanced understanding, highlighting the differential roles of various overexcitabilities. Specifically, emotional, intellectual, and sensual overexcitabilities were found to exacerbate trauma symptomatology. In contrast, psychomotor overexcitability emerged as a protective factor, demonstrating a mitigating influence on the relationship between sexual objectification and trauma. Implications: The study's findings hold significant implications for a diverse array of stakeholders, encompassing mental health practitioners, educators, policymakers, and advocacy groups. The identified moderating effects of overexcitabilities emphasize the need for tailored interventions that consider individual differences in coping and resilience mechanisms. By recognizing the pivotal role of overexcitabilities in modulating the traumatic consequences of sexual objectification, this research advocates for the development of more nuanced and targeted support frameworks. Moreover, the study underscores the importance of continued research endeavors to unravel the intricate mechanisms and dynamics underpinning these relationships. Such endeavors are crucial for fostering the evolution of informed, evidence-based interventions and strategies aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of sexual objectification and promoting holistic well-being.

Keywords: sexual objectification, insidious trauma, emotional overexcitability, intellectual overexcitability, sensual overexcitability, psychomotor overexcitability, imaginational overexcitability

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912 Molecular Modeling and Prediction of the Physicochemical Properties of Polyols in Aqueous Solution

Authors: Maria Fontenele, Claude-Gilles Dussap, Vincent Dumouilla, Baptiste Boit

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Roquette Frères is a producer of plant-based ingredients that employs many processes to extract relevant molecules and often transforms them through chemical and physical processes to create desired ingredients with specific functionalities. In this context, Roquette encounters numerous multi-component complex systems in their processes, including fibers, proteins, and carbohydrates, in an aqueous environment. To develop, control, and optimize both new and old processes, Roquette aims to develop new in silico tools. Currently, Roquette uses process modelling tools which include specific thermodynamic models and is willing to develop computational methodologies such as molecular dynamics simulations to gain insights into the complex interactions in such complex media, and especially hydrogen bonding interactions. The issue at hand concerns aqueous mixtures of polyols with high dry matter content. The polyols mannitol and sorbitol molecules are diastereoisomers that have nearly identical chemical structures but very different physicochemical properties: for example, the solubility of sorbitol in water is 2.5 kg/kg of water, while mannitol has a solubility of 0.25 kg/kg of water at 25°C. Therefore, predicting liquid-solid equilibrium properties in this case requires sophisticated solution models that cannot be based solely on chemical group contributions, knowing that for mannitol and sorbitol, the chemical constitutive groups are the same. Recognizing the significance of solvation phenomena in polyols, the GePEB (Chemical Engineering, Applied Thermodynamics, and Biosystems) team at Institut Pascal has developed the COSMO-UCA model, which has the structural advantage of using quantum mechanics tools to predict formation and phase equilibrium properties. In this work, we use molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the behavior of polyols in aqueous solution. Specifically, we employ simulations to compute essential metrics such as radial distribution functions and hydrogen bond autocorrelation functions. Our findings illuminate a fundamental contrast: sorbitol and mannitol exhibit disparate hydrogen bond lifetimes within aqueous environments. This observation serves as a cornerstone in elucidating the divergent physicochemical properties inherent to each compound, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between their molecular structures and water interactions. We also present a methodology to predict the physicochemical properties of complex solutions, taking as sole input the three-dimensional structure of the molecules in the medium. Finally, by developing knowledge models, we represent some physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of sorbitol and mannitol.

Keywords: COSMO models, hydrogen bond, molecular dynamics, thermodynamics

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911 Excess Body Fat as a Store Toxin Affecting the Glomerular Filtration and Excretory Function of the Liver in Patients after Renal Transplantation

Authors: Magdalena B. Kaziuk, Waldemar Kosiba, Marek J. Kuzniewski

Abstract:

Introduction: Adipose tissue is a typical place for storage water-insoluble toxins in the body. It's connective tissue, where the intercellular substance consist of fat, which level in people with low physical activity should be 18-25% for women and 13-18% for men. Due to the fat distribution in the body we distinquish two types of obesity: android (visceral, abdominal) and gynoidal (gluteal-femoral, peripheral). Abdominal obesity increases the risk of complications of the cardiovascular system diseases, and impaired renal and liver function. Through the influence on disorders of metabolism, lipid metabolism, diabetes and hypertension, leading to emergence of the metabolic syndrome. So thus, obesity will especially overload kidney function in patients after transplantation. Aim: An attempt was made to estimate the impact of amount fat tissue on transplanted kidney function and excretory function of the liver in patients after Ktx. Material and Methods: The study included 108 patients (50 females, 58 male, age 46.5 +/- 12.9 years) with active kidney transplant after more than 3 months from the transplantation. An analysis of body composition was done by using electrical bioimpedance (BIA) and anthropometric measurements. Estimated basal metabolic rate (BMR), muscle mass, total body water content and the amount of body fat. Information about physical activity were obtained during clinical examination. Nutritional status, and type of obesity were determined by using indicators: Waist to Height Ratio (WHR) and Waist to Hip Ratio (WHR). Excretory functions of the transplanted kidney was rated by calculating the estimated renal glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the MDRD formula. Liver function was rated by total bilirubin and alanine aminotransferase levels ALT concentration in serum. In our patients haemolitic uremic syndrome (HUS) was excluded. Results: In 19.44% of patients had underweight, 22.37% of the respondents were with normal weight, 11.11% had overweight, and the rest were with obese (49.08%). People with android stature have a lower eGFR compared with those with the gynoidal stature (p = 0.004). All patients with obesity had higher amount of body fat from a few to several percent. The higher amount of body fat percentage, the lower eGFR had patients (p <0.001). Elevated ALT levels significantly correlated with a high fat content (p <0.02). Conclusion: Increased amount of body fat, particularly in the case of android obesity can be a predictor of kidney and liver damage. Due to that obese patients should have more frequent control of diagnostic functions of these organs and the intensive dietary proceedings, pharmacological and regular physical activity adapted to the current physical condition of patients after transplantation.

Keywords: obesity, body fat, kidney transplantation, glomerular filtration rate, liver function

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910 Variability of Physico-Chemical and Carbonate Chemistry of Seawater in Selected Portions of the Central Atlantic Coastline of Ghana

Authors: Robert Kwame Kpaliba, Dennis Kpakpor Adotey, Yaw Serfor-Armah

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Increase in the oceanic carbon dioxide absorbance from the atmosphere due to climate change has led to appreciable change in the chemistry of the oceans. The change in oceanic pH referred to as ocean acidification poses multiple threats and stresses on marine species, biodiversity, goods and services, and livelihoods. Marine ecosystems are continuously threatened by plethora of natural and anthropogenic stressors including carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions causing a lot of changes which has not been experienced for approximately 60 years. Little has been done in Africa as a whole and Ghana in particular to improve the understanding of the variations of the carbonate chemistry of seawater and the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification on security of seafood, nutrition, climate and environmental change. There is, therefore, the need for regular monitoring of carbonate chemistry of seawater along Ghana’s coastline to generate reliable data to aid marine policy formulation. Samples of seawater were collected thrice every month for a one-year period from five study sites for the various parameters to be analyzed. Analysis of the measured physico-chemical and the carbonate chemistry parameters was done using simple statistics. Correlation test and ANOVA were run on both of the physico-chemical and carbonate chemistry parameters. The carbonate chemistry parameters were measured using computer software programme (CO₂cal v4.0.9) except total alkalinity and pH. The study assessed the variability of seawater carbonate chemistry in selected portions of the Central Atlantic Coastline of Ghana (Tsokomey/Bortianor, Kokrobitey, Gomoa Nyanyanor, Gomoa Fetteh, and Senya Breku landing beaches) over a 1-year period (June 2016–May 2017). For physico-chemical parameters, there was insignificant variation in nitrate (NO₃⁻) (1.62 - 2.3 mg/L), ammonia (NH₃) (1.52 - 2.05 mg/L), and salinity (sal) (34.50 - 34.74 ppt). Carbonate chemistry parameters for all the five study sites showed significant variation: partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) (414.08-715.5 µmol/kg), carbonate ion (CO₃²⁻) (115-157.92 µmol/kg), pH (7.9-8.12), total alkalinity (TA) (1711.8-1986 µmol/kg), total carbon dioxide (TCO₂) (1512.1 - 1792 µmol/kg), dissolved carbon dioxide (CO₂aq) (10.97-18.92 µmol/kg), Revelle Factor (RF) (9.62-11.84), aragonite (ΩAr) (0.75-1.48) and calcite (ΩCa) (1.08-2.14). The study revealed that the partial pressure of carbon dioxide and temperature did not have a significant effect on each other (r² = 0.31) (p-value = 0.0717). There was an appreciable effect of pH on dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.921) (p-value = 0.0000). The variation between total alkalinity and dissolved carbon dioxide was appreciable (r² = 0.731) (p-value = 0.0008). There was a significant correlation between total carbon dioxide and dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.852) (p-value = 0.0000). Revelle factor correlated strongly with dissolved carbon dioxide (r² = 0.982) (p-value = 0.0000). Partial pressure of carbon dioxide corresponds strongly with atmospheric carbon dioxide (r² = 0.9999) (p-value = 0.00000).

Keywords: carbonate chemistry, seawater, central atlantic coastline, Ghana, ocean acidification

Procedia PDF Downloads 550
909 Application of Thermoplastic Microbioreactor to the Single Cell Study of Budding Yeast to Decipher the Effect of 5-Hydroxymethylfurfural on Growth

Authors: Elif Gencturk, Ekin Yurdakul, Ahmet Y. Celik, Senol Mutlu, Kutlu O. Ulgen

Abstract:

Yeast cells are generally used as a model system of eukaryotes due to their complex genetic structure, rapid growth ability in optimum conditions, easy replication and well-defined genetic system properties. Thus, yeast cells increased the knowledge of the principal pathways in humans. During fermentation, carbohydrates (hexoses and pentoses) degrade into some toxic by-products such as 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF or HMF) and furfural. HMF influences the ethanol yield, and ethanol productivity; it interferes with microbial growth and is considered as a potent inhibitor of bioethanol production. In this study, yeast single cell behavior under HMF application was monitored by using a continuous flow single phase microfluidic platform. Microfluidic device in operation is fabricated by hot embossing and thermo-compression techniques from cyclo-olefin polymer (COP). COP is biocompatible, transparent and rigid material and it is suitable for observing fluorescence of cells considering its low auto-fluorescence characteristic. The response of yeast cells was recorded through Red Fluorescent Protein (RFP) tagged Nop56 gene product, which is an essential evolutionary-conserved nucleolar protein, and also a member of the box C/D snoRNP complexes. With the application of HMF, yeast cell proliferation continued but HMF slowed down the cell growth, and after HMF treatment the cell proliferation stopped. By the addition of fresh nutrient medium, the yeast cells recovered after 6 hours of HMF exposure. Thus, HMF application suppresses normal functioning of cell cycle but it does not cause cells to die. The monitoring of Nop56 expression phases of the individual cells shed light on the protein and ribosome synthesis cycles along with their link to growth. Further computational study revealed that the mechanisms underlying the inhibitory or inductive effects of HMF on growth are enriched in functional categories of protein degradation, protein processing, DNA repair and multidrug resistance. The present microfluidic device can successfully be used for studying the effects of inhibitory agents on growth by single cell tracking, thus capturing cell to cell variations. By metabolic engineering techniques, engineered strains can be developed, and the metabolic network of the microorganism can thus be manipulated such that chemical overproduction of target metabolite is achieved along with the maximum growth/biomass yield.  

Keywords: COP, HMF, ribosome biogenesis, thermoplastic microbioreactor, yeast

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
908 Statistical Comparison of Ensemble Based Storm Surge Forecasting Models

Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 306