Search results for: willingness to pay premium price

Authors: Raju Chhetri

Abstract:

Agroforestry is one of the main sources of livelihood among the people of Nepal. In particular, this is the only one mode of livelihood among the Chepangs. The monster earthquake (7.3 MW) that hit the country on the 25th of April in 2015 and many of its aftershocks had devastating effects. As a result, not only the big structures collapsed, it incurred great losses on fabrication, collection centers, schools, markets and other necessary service centers. Although there were a large number of aftershocks after the monster earthquake, the most devastating aftershock took place on 12th May, 2015, which measured 6.3 richter scale. Consequently, it caused more destruction of houses, further calamity to the lives of people, and public life got further perdition. This study was mainly carried out to find out the food security and market situation of Agroforestry product of the Chepang community in Raksirang VDC (one of the severely affected VDCs of Makwanpur district) due to the earthquake. A total of 40 households (12 percent) were randomly selected as a sample in ward number 7 only. Questionnaires and focus groups were used to gather primary data. Additional, two Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were convened in the study area to get some descriptive information on this study. Estimated 370 hectares of land, which was full of Agroforestry plantation, ruptured by the earthquake. It caused severe damages to the households, and a serious loss of food-stock, up to 60-80 percent (maize, millet, and rice). Instead of regular cereal intake, banana (Muas Paradisca) consumption was found ‘high scale’ in the emergency period. The market price of rice (37-44 NRS/Kg) increased by 18.9 percent. Some difference in the income range before and after the earthquake was observed. Before earthquake, sale of Agroforestry, and livestock products were continuing, but after the earthquake, Agroforestry product sale is the only one means of livelihood among Chepangs. Nearly 50-60 percent Agroforestry production of banana (Mass Paradisca), citrus (Citrus Lemon), pineapple (Ananus comosus) and broom grass (Thysanolaena maxima) declined, excepting for cash income from the residual. Heavy demands of Agroforestry product mentioned above lay high farm gate prices (50-100 percent) helps surveyed the community to continue livelihood from its sale. Out of the survey samples, 30 households (75 percent) respondents migrated to safe location due to land rupture, ongoing aftershocks, and landslides. Overall food security situation in this community is acute and challenging for the days to come. Immediate and long term both response from a relief agency concerning food, shelter and safe stocking of Agroforestry product is required to keep secured livelihood in Chepang community.

Keywords: earthquake, rupture, agroforestry, livelihood, indigenous, food security

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: Aipeng Zhu, Yun Zhang

Abstract:

The growing grievous environment problems together with the exhaustion of energy resources put urgent demands for developing high energy density. Considering the factors including capacity, resource and environment, Manganese-based lithium-rich layer-structured cathode materials xLi₂MnO₃⋅(1-x)LiMO₂ (M = Ni, Co, Mn, and other metals) are drawing increasing attention due to their high reversible capacities, high discharge potentials, and low cost. They are expected to be one type of the most promising cathode materials for the next-generation Li-ion batteries (LIBs) with higher energy densities. Unfortunately, their commercial applications are hindered with crucial drawbacks such as poor rate performance, limited cycle life and continuous falling of the discharge potential. With decades of extensive studies, significant achievements have been obtained in improving their cyclability and rate performances, but they cannot meet the requirement of commercial utilization till now. One major problem for lithium-rich layer-structured cathode materials (LLOs) is the side reaction during cycling, which leads to severe surface degradation. In this process, the metal ions can dissolve in the electrolyte, and the surface phase change can hinder the intercalation/deintercalation of Li ions and resulting in low capacity retention and low working voltage. To optimize the LLOs cathode material, the surface coating is an efficient method. Considering the price and stability, Al₂O₃ was used as a coating material in the research. Meanwhile, due to the low initial Coulombic efficiency (ICE), the pristine LLOs was pretreated by KMnO₄ to increase the ICE. The precursor was prepared by a facile coprecipitation method. The as-prepared precursor was then thoroughly mixed with Li₂CO₃ and calcined in air at 500℃ for 5h and 900℃ for 12h to produce Li₁.₂[Ni₀.₂Mn₀.₆]O₂ (LNMO). The LNMO was then put into 0.1ml/g KMnO₄ solution stirring for 3h. The resultant was filtered and washed with water, and dried in an oven. The LLOs obtained was dispersed in Al(NO₃)₃ solution. The mixture was lyophilized to confer the Al(NO₃)₃ was uniformly coated on LLOs. After lyophilization, the LLOs was calcined at 500℃ for 3h to obtain LNMO@LMO@ALO. The working electrodes were prepared by casting the mixture of active material, acetylene black, and binder (polyvinglidene fluoride) dissolved in N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone with a mass ratio of 80: 15: 5 onto an aluminum foil. The electrochemical performance tests showed that the multiple surface modified materials had a higher initial Coulombic efficiency (84%) and better capacity retention (91% after 100 cycles) compared with that of pristine LNMO (76% and 80%, respectively). The modified material suggests that the KMnO₄ pretreat and Al₂O₃ coating can increase the ICE and cycling stability.

Keywords: Li-rich materials, surface coating, lithium ion batteries, Al₂O₃

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Qiang Ren

Abstract:

In the past 20 years, under the high standard of international investment protection, there have been numerous cases of investors ignoring the host country's measures to protect human health. Examples include investment disputes triggered by the Argentine government's measures related to human health, quality, and price of drinking water under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Examples also include Philip Morris v. Australia, in which case the Australian government announced the passing of the Plain Packing of Cigarettes Act to address the threat of smoking to public health in 2010. In order to take advantage of the investment treaty protection between Hong Kong and Australia, Philip Morris Asia acquired Philip Morris Australia in February 2011 and initiated investment arbitration under the treaty before the passage of the Act in July 2011. Philip Morris claimed the Act constitutes indirect expropriation and violation of fair and equitable treatment and claimed 4.16 billion US dollars compensation. Fortunately, the case ended at the admissibility decision stage and did not enter the substantive stage. Generally, even if the host country raises a human health defense, most arbitral tribunals will rule that the host country revoke the corresponding policy and make huge compensation in accordance with the clauses in the bilateral investment treaty to protect the rights of investors. The significant imbalance in the rights and obligations of host states and investors in international investment treaties undermines the ability of host states to act in pursuit of human health and social interests beyond economic interests. This squeeze on the nation's public policy space and disregard for the human health costs of investors' activities raises the need to include human health in investment rulemaking. The current international investment law system that emphasizes investor protection fails to fully reflect the requirements of the host country for the healthy development of human beings and even often brings negative impacts to human health. At a critical moment in the reform of the international investment law system, in order to achieve mutual enhancement of investment returns and human health development, human health should play a greater role in influencing and shaping international investment rules. International investment agreements should not be limited to investment protection tools but should also be part of national development strategies to serve sustainable development and human health. In order to meet the requirements of the new sustainable development goals of the United Nations, human health should be emphasized in the formulation of international investment rules, and efforts should be made to shape a new generation of international investment rules that meet the requirements of human health and sustainable development.

Keywords: human health, international investment law, Philip Morris v. Australia, investor protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Jaroslav Knapek, Kamila Vavrova, Tomas Kralik, Tereza Humesova

Abstract:

The treatment and disposal of sewage sludge is one of the most important and critical problems of waste water treatment plants. Currently, 180 thousand tonnes of sludge dry matter are produced in the Czech Republic, which corresponds to approximately 17.8 kg of stabilized sludge dry matter / year per inhabitant of the Czech Republic. Due to the fact that sewage sludge contains a large amount of substances that are not beneficial for human health, the conditions for sludge management will be significantly tightened in the Czech Republic since 2023. One of the tested methods of sludge liquidation is the production of alternative fuel from sludge from sewage treatment plants and paper production. The paper presents an analysis of economic efficiency of alternative fuel production from sludge and its use for fluidized bed boiler with nominal consumption of 5 t of fuel per hour. The evaluation methodology includes the entire logistics chain from sludge extraction, through mechanical moisture reduction to about 40%, transport to the pelletizing line, moisture drying for pelleting and pelleting itself. For economic analysis of sludge pellet production, a time horizon of 10 years corresponding to the expected lifetime of the critical components of the pelletizing line is chosen. The economic analysis of pelleting projects is based on a detailed analysis of reference pelleting technologies suitable for sludge pelleting. The analysis of the economic efficiency of pellet is based on the simulation of cash flows associated with the implementation of the project over the life of the project. For the entered value of return on the invested capital, the price of the resulting product (in EUR / GJ or in EUR / t) is searched to ensure that the net present value of the project is zero over the project lifetime. The investor then realizes the return on the investment in the amount of the discount used to calculate the net present value. The calculations take place in a real business environment (taxes, tax depreciation, inflation, etc.) and the inputs work with market prices. At the same time, the opportunity cost principle is respected; waste disposal for alternative fuels includes the saved costs of waste disposal. The methodology also respects the emission allowances saved due to the displacement of coal by alternative (bio) fuel. Preliminary results of testing of pellet production from sludge show that after suitable modifications of the pelletizer it is possible to produce sufficiently high quality pellets from sludge. A mixture of sludge and paper waste has proved to be a more suitable material for pelleting. At the same time, preliminary results of the analysis of the economic efficiency of this sludge disposal method show that, despite the relatively low calorific value of the fuel produced (about 10-11 MJ / kg), this sludge disposal method is economically competitive. This work has been supported by the Czech Technology Agency within the project TN01000048 Biorefining as circulation technology.

Keywords: Alternative fuel, Economic analysis, Pelleting, Sewage sludge

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Jollen Dai, Truman You, Xinyun Du, Katrina Liu

Abstract:

Transportation is one of the leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Thus, to meet the Paris Agreement 2015, all countries must adopt a different and more sustainable transportation system. From bikes to Maglev, the world is slowly shifting to sustainable transportation. To develop a utility public transit system, a sustainable web of buses must be implemented. As of now, only a handful of cities have adopted a detailed plan to implement a full fleet of e-buses by the 2030s, with Shenzhen in the lead. Every change requires a detailed plan and a focused analysis of the impacts of the change. In this report, the economic implications and financial implications have been taken into consideration to develop a well-rounded 10-year plan for New York City. We also apply the same financial model to the other cities, LA and Chicago. We picked NYC, Chicago, and LA to conduct the comparative NPB analysis since they are all big metropolitan cities and have complex transportation systems. All three cities have started an action plan to achieve a full fleet of e-bus in the decades. Plus, their energy carbon footprint and their energy price are very different, which are the key factors to the benefits of electric buses. Using TCO (Total Cost Ownership) financial analysis, we developed a model to calculate NPB (Net Present Benefit) /and compare EBS (electric buses) to DBS (diesel buses). We have considered all essential aspects in our model: initial investment, including the cost of a bus, charger, and installation, government fund (federal, state, local), labor cost, energy (electricity or diesel) cost, maintenance cost, insurance cost, health and environment benefit, and V2G (vehicle to grid) benefit. We see about $1,400,000 in benefits for a 12-year lifetime of an EBS compared to DBS provided the government fund to offset 50% of EBS purchase cost. With the government subsidy, an EBS starts to make positive cash flow in 5th year and can pay back its investment in 5 years. Please remember that in our model, we consider environmental and health benefits, and every year, $50,000 is counted as health benefits per bus. Besides health benefits, the significant benefits come from the energy cost savings and maintenance savings, which are about $600,000 and $200,000 in 12-year life cycle. Using linear regression, given certain budget limitations, we then designed an optimal three-phase process to replace all NYC electric buses in 10 years, i.e., by 2033. The linear regression process is to minimize the total cost over the years and have the lowest environmental cost. The overall benefits to replace all DBS with EBS for NYC is over $2.1 billion by the year of 2033. For LA, and Chicago, the benefits for electrification of the current bus fleet are $1.04 billion and $634 million by 2033. All NPB analyses and the algorithm to optimize the electrification phase process are implemented in Python code and can be shared.

Keywords: financial modeling, total cost ownership, net present benefits, electric bus, diesel bus, NYC, LA, Chicago

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Xu Wang

Abstract:

This research builds linear regressions of U.S. macroeconomic condition and volatility measures in the investment grade and high yield Credit Default Swap index spreads using monthly data from March 2009 to July 2016, to study the relationship between different dimensions of macroeconomy and overall credit risk quality. The most significant contribution of this research is systematically examining individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility on CDX spreads by including macroeconomic time series that captures different dimensions of the U.S. economy. The industrial production index growth, non-farm payroll growth, consumer price index growth, 3-month treasury rate and consumer sentiment are introduced to capture the condition of real economic activity, employment, inflation, monetary policy and risk aversion respectively. The conditional variance of the macroeconomic series is constructed using ARMA-GARCH model and is used to measure macroeconomic volatility. The linear regression model is conducted to capture relationships between monthly average CDX spreads and macroeconomic variables. The Newey–West estimator is used to control for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity in error terms. Furthermore, the sensitivity factor analysis and standardized coefficients analysis are conducted to compare the sensitivity of CDX spreads to different macroeconomic variables and to compare relative effects of macroeconomic condition versus macroeconomic uncertainty respectively. This research shows that macroeconomic condition can have a negative effect on CDX spread while macroeconomic volatility has a positive effect on determining CDX spread. Macroeconomic condition and volatility variables can jointly explain more than 70% of the whole variation of the CDX spread. In addition, sensitivity factor analysis shows that the CDX spread is the most sensitive to Consumer Sentiment index. Finally, the standardized coefficients analysis shows that both macroeconomic condition and volatility variables are important in determining CDX spread but macroeconomic condition category of variables have more relative importance in determining CDX spread than macroeconomic volatility category of variables. This research shows that the CDX spread can reflect the individual and joint effects of macroeconomic condition and volatility, which suggests that individual investors or government should carefully regard CDX spread as a measure of overall credit risk because the CDX spread is influenced by macroeconomy. In addition, the significance of macroeconomic condition and volatility variables, such as Non-farm Payroll growth rate and Industrial Production Index growth volatility suggests that the government, should pay more attention to the overall credit quality in the market when macroecnomy is low or volatile.

Keywords: autoregressive moving average model, credit spread puzzle, credit default swap spread, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, macroeconomic conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Krishmali N. Ekanayake, Brendan J. Holland, Colin J. Barrow, Rick Wood

Abstract:

Globally, more than one-third of all food produced is lost or wasted, equating to 1.3 billion tonnes per year. Around 31.2 million tonnes of food waste are generated across the production, supply, and consumption chain in Australia. Generally, the food waste management processes adopt environmental-friendly and more sustainable approaches such as composting, anerobic digestion and energy implemented technologies. However, unavoidable, and non-recyclable food waste ends up as landfilling and incineration that involve many undesirable impacts and challenges on the environment. A biorefinery approach contributes to a waste-minimising circular economy by converting food and other organic biomass waste into valuable outputs, including feeds, nutrition, fertilisers, and biomaterials. As a solution, Green Eco Technologies has developed a food waste treatment process using WasteMaster system. The system uses charged oxygen and moderate temperatures to convert food waste, without bacteria, additives, or water, into a virtually odour-free, much reduced quantity of reusable residual material. In the context of a biorefinery, the WasteMaster dries and mills food waste into a form suitable for storage or downstream extraction/separation/concentration to create products. The focus of the study is to determine the nutritional composition of WasteMaster processed residue to potential develop aquafeed ingredients. The global aquafeed industry is projected to reach a high value market in future, which has shown high demand for the aquafeed products. Therefore, food waste can be utilized for aquaculture feed development by reducing landfill. This framework will lessen the requirement of raw crops cultivation for aquafeed development and reduce the aquaculture footprint. In the present study, the nutritional elements of processed residue are consistent with the input food waste type, which has shown that the WasteMaster is not affecting the expected nutritional distribution. The macronutrient retention values of protein, lipid, and nitrogen free extract (NFE) are detected >85%, >80%, and >95% respectively. The sensitive food components including omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, amino acids, and phenolic compounds have been found intact in each residue material. Preliminary analysis suggests a price comparability with current aquafeed ingredient cost making the economic feasibility. The results suggest high potentiality of aquafeed development as 5 to 10% of the ingredients to replace/partially substitute other less sustainable ingredients across biorefinery setting. Our aim is to improve the sustainability of aquaculture and reduce the environmental impacts of food waste.

Keywords: biorefinery, ffood waste residue, input, wasteMaster

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Kumalbeo Paul Kamani

Abstract:

Marketing plays a very important role in the success of any firm since it represents the means through which a firm can reach its customers and also promotes its products and services. In fact, marketing aids the firm in identifying customers who the business can competitively serve, and tailoring product offerings, prices, distribution, promotional efforts, and services towards those customers. Unfortunately, in many firms, marketing has been reduced to merely advertisement. For effective marketing, firms must go beyond this often-limited function of advertisement. In the fashion industry in particular, marketing faces challenges due to its peculiar characteristics. Previous research for instance affirms the idiosyncrasy and peculiarities that differentiate the fashion industry from other industrial areas. It has been documented that the fashion industry is characterized seasonal intensity, short product life cycles, the difficulty of competitive differentiation, and long time for companies to reach financial stability. These factors are noted to pose obstacles to the fashion entrepreneur’s endeavours and can be the reasons that explain their low survival rates. In recent times, the fashion industry has been described as a market that is accessible market, has low entry barriers, both in terms of needed capital and skills which have all accounted for the burgeoning nature of startups. Yet as already stated, marketing is particularly challenging in the industry. In particular, areas such as marketing, branding, growth, project planning, financial and relationship management might represent challenges for the fashion entrepreneur but that have not been properly addressed by previous research. It is therefore important to assess marketing strategies of fashion firms and the factors influencing their success. This study generally sought to examine marketing strategies of fashion dealers in Ghana and their critical success factors. The study employed the quantitative survey research approach. A total of 120 fashion dealers were sampled. Questionnaires were used as instrument of data collection. Data collected was analysed using quantitative techniques including descriptive statistics and Relative Importance Index. The study revealed that the marketing strategies used by fashion apparels are text messages using mobile phones, referrals, social media marketing, and direct marketing. Results again show that the factors influencing fashion marketing effectiveness are strategic management, marketing mix (product, price, promotion etc), branding and business development. Policy implications are finally outlined. The study recommends among others that there is a need for the top management executive to craft and adopt marketing strategies that enable that are compatible with the fashion trends and the needs of the customers. This will improve customer satisfaction and hence boost market penetration. The study further recommends that the fashion industry in Ghana should seek to ensure that fashion apparels accommodate the diversity and the cultural setting of different customers to meet their unique needs.

Keywords: marketing, fashion, industry, success factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Raymond Chi Fai Si Tou, Jacey Ja Young Choe, Amy Siu Ian So

Abstract:

Smart hotels can be defined as the hotel which has an intelligent system, through digitalization and networking which achieve hotel management and service information. In addition, smart hotels include high-end designs that integrate information and communication technology with hotel management fulfilling the guests’ needs and improving the quality, efficiency and satisfaction of hotel management. The purpose of this study is to identify appropriate factors that may influence guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit Smart Hotels based on service quality measurement of lodging quality index and extended UTAUT theory. Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) is adopted as a framework to explain technology acceptance and use. Since smart hotels are technology-based infrastructure hotels, UTATU theory could be as the theoretical background to examine the guests’ acceptance and use after staying in smart hotels. The UTAUT identifies four key drivers of the adoption of information systems: performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions. The extended UTAUT modifies the definitions of the seven constructs for consideration; the four previously cited constructs of the UTAUT model together with three new additional constructs, which including hedonic motivation, price value and habit. Thus, the seven constructs from the extended UTAUT theory could be adopted to understand their intention to revisit smart hotels. The service quality model will also be adopted and integrated into the framework to understand the guests’ intention of smart hotels. There are rare studies to examine the service quality on guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit in smart hotels. In this study, Lodging Quality Index (LQI) will be adopted to measure the service quality in smart hotels. Using integrated UTAUT theory and service quality model because technological applications and services require using more than one model to understand the complicated situation for customers’ acceptance of new technology. Moreover, an integrated model could provide more perspective insights to explain the relationships of the constructs that could not be obtained from only one model. For this research, ten in-depth interviews are planned to recruit this study. In order to confirm the applicability of the proposed framework and gain an overview of the guest experience of smart hotels from the hospitality industry, in-depth interviews with the hotel guests and industry practitioners will be accomplished. In terms of the theoretical contribution, it predicts that the integrated models from the UTAUT theory and the service quality will provide new insights to understand factors that influence the guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit smart hotels. After this study identifies influential factors, smart hotel practitioners could understand which factors may significantly influence smart hotel guests’ satisfaction and intention to revisit. In addition, smart hotel practitioners could also provide outstanding guests experience by improving their service quality based on the identified dimensions from the service quality measurement. Thus, it will be beneficial to the sustainability of the smart hotels business.

Keywords: intention to revisit, guest satisfaction, qualitative interviews, smart hotels

Procedia PDF Downloads 208

Authors: Ching Shya Lee, Mohamed Kheireddine Aroua, Wan Mohd Ashri Wan Daud, Patrick Cognet, Yolande Peres, Mohammed Ajeel

Abstract:

In recent years, with the decreasing supply of fossil fuel, renewable energy has received a significant demand. Biodiesel which is well known as vegetable oil based fatty acid methyl ester is an alternative fuel for diesel. It can be produced from transesterification of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, sunflower oil, rapeseed oil, etc., with methanol. During the transesterification process, crude glycerol is formed as a by-product, resulting in 10% wt of the total biodiesel production. To date, due to the fast growing of biodiesel production in worldwide, the crude glycerol supply has also increased rapidly and resulted in a significant price drop for glycerol. Therefore, extensive research has been developed to use glycerol as feedstock to produce various added-value chemicals, such as tartronic acid, mesoxalic acid, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, propanediol, acrolein etc. The industrial processes that usually involved are selective oxidation, biofermentation, esterification, and hydrolysis. However, the conversion of glycerol into added-value compounds by electrochemical approach is rarely discussed. Currently, the approach is mainly focused on the electro-oxidation study of glycerol under potentiostatic mode for cogenerating energy with other chemicals. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol under galvanostatic mode is seldom reviewed. In this study, the glycerol was converted into various added-value compounds by electrochemical method under galvanostatic mode. This work aimed to study the possible compounds produced from glycerol by electrochemical technique in a one-pot electrolysis cell. The electro-organic synthesis study from glycerol was carried out in a single compartment reactor for 8 hours, over the platinum cathode and anode electrodes under acidic condition. Various parameters such as electric current (1.0 A to 3.0 A) and reaction temperature (27 °C to 80 °C) were evaluated. The products obtained were characterized by using gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy equipped with an aqueous-stable polyethylene glycol stationary phase column. Under the optimized reaction condition, the glycerol conversion achieved as high as 95%. The glycerol was successfully converted into various added-value chemicals such as ethylene glycol, glycolic acid, glyceric acid, acetaldehyde, formic acid, and glyceraldehyde; given the yield of 1%, 45%, 27%, 4%, 0.7% and 5%, respectively. Based on the products obtained from this study, the reaction mechanism of this process is proposed. In conclusion, this study has successfully converted glycerol into a wide variety of added-value compounds. These chemicals are found to have high market value; they can be used in the pharmaceutical, food and cosmetic industries. This study effectively opens a new approach for the electrochemical conversion of glycerol. For further enhancement on the product selectivity, electrode material is an important parameter to be considered.

Keywords: biodiesel, glycerol, electrochemical conversion, galvanostatic mode

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Bengan Simbarashe Manwere

Abstract:

The entire African continent, comprising 55 countries, holds a 2% share of the global carbon market. The World Bank attributes the continent’s insignificant share and participation in the carbon market to the limited access to electricity. Approximately 800 million people spread across 47 African countries generate as much power as Spain, with a population of 45million. Only South Africa and North Africa have carbon-reduction investment opportunities on the continent and dominate the 2% market share of the global carbon market. On the back of the 2015 Paris Agreement, South Africa signed into law the Carbon Tax Act 15 of 2019 and the Customs and Excise Amendment Act 13 of 2019 (Gazette No. 4280) on 1 June 2019. By these laws, South Africa was ushered into the league of active global carbon market players. By increasing the cost of production by the rate of R120/tCO2e, the tax intentionally compels the internalization of pollution as a cost of production and, relatedly, stimulate investment in clean technologies. The first phase covered the 1 June 2019 – 31 December 2022 period during which the tax was meant to escalate at CPI + 2% for Scope 1 emitters. However, in the second phase, which stretches from 2023 to 2030, the tax will escalate at the inflation rate only as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The Carbon Tax Act provides for carbon allowances as mitigation strategies to limit agents’ carbon tax liability by up to 95% for fugitive and process emissions. Although the June 2019 Carbon Tax Act explicitly makes provision for a carbon trading scheme (CTS), the carbon trading regulations thereof were only finalised in December 2020. This points to a delay in the establishment of a carbon trading scheme (CTS). Relatedly, emitters in South Africa are not able to benefit from the 95% reduction in effective carbon tax rate from R120/tCO2e to R6/tCO2e as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has not yet finalized the establishment of the market for trading carbon credits. Whereas most carbon trading schemes have been designed and constructed from the beginning as new tailor-made systems in countries the likes of France, Australia, Romania which treat carbon as a financial product, South Africa intends, on the contrary, to leverage existing trading infrastructure of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Clearing and Settlement platforms of Strate, among others, in the interest of the Paris Agreement timelines. Therefore the carbon trading scheme will not be constructed from scratch. At the same time, carbon will be treated as a commodity in order to align with the existing institutional and infrastructural capacity. This explains why the Carbon Tax Act is silent about the involvement of the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA).For South Africa, there is need to establish they equilibrium stability of the CTS. This is important as South Africa is an innovator in carbon trading and the successful trading of carbon credits on the JSE will lead to imitation by early adopters first, followed by the middle majority thereafter.

Keywords: carbon trading scheme (CTS), Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE), carbon tax act 15 of 2019, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 70

Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Elvis Medina, Alejandro Karelovic, Romel Jiménez

Abstract:

Catalytic ammonia decomposition represents an attractive alternative due to its high H₂ content (17.8% w/w), a product stream free of COₓ, among others; however, challenges need to be addressed for its consolidation as an H₂ chemical storage technology, especially, those focused on the synthesis of efficient bimetallic catalytic systems, as an alternative to the price and scarcity of ruthenium, the most active catalyst reported. In this sense, from the perspective of rational catalyst design, adjusting the main catalytic activity descriptor, a screening of supported catalysts with different compositional settings of cobalt-molybdenum metals is presented to evaluate their effect on the catalytic decomposition rate of ammonia. Subsequently, a kinetic study on the supported monometallic Co and Mo catalysts, as well as on the bimetallic CoMo catalyst with the highest activity is shown. The synthesis of catalysts supported on γ-alumina was carried out using the Charge Enhanced Dry Impregnation (CEDI) method, all with a 5% w/w loading metal. Seeking to maintain uniform dispersion, the catalysts were oxidized and activated (In-situ activation) using a flow of anhydrous air and hydrogen, respectively, under the same conditions: 40 ml min⁻¹ and 5 °C min⁻¹ from room temperature to 600 °C. Catalytic tests were carried out in a fixed-bed reactor, confirming the absence of transport limitations, as well as an Approach to equilibrium (< 1 x 10⁻⁴). The reaction rate on all catalysts was measured between 400 and 500 ºC at 53.09 kPa NH3. The synergy theoretically (DFT) reported for bimetallic catalysts was confirmed experimentally. Specifically, it was observed that the catalyst composed mainly of 75 mol% cobalt proved to be the most active in the experiments, followed by the monometallic cobalt and molybdenum catalysts, in this order of activity as referred to in the literature. A kinetic study was performed at 10.13 – 101.32 kPa NH3 and at four equidistant temperatures between 437 and 475 °C the data were adjusted to an LHHW-type model, which considered the desorption of nitrogen atoms from the active phase surface as the rate determining step (RDS). The regression analysis were carried out under an integral regime, using a minimization algorithm based on SLSQP. The physical meaning of the parameters adjusted in the kinetic model, such as the RDS rate constant (k₅) and the lumped adsorption constant of the quasi-equilibrated steps (α) was confirmed through their Arrhenius and Van't Hoff-type behavior (R² > 0.98), respectively. From an energetic perspective, the activation energy for cobalt, cobalt-molybdenum, and molybdenum was 115.2, 106.8, and 177.5 kJ mol⁻¹, respectively. With this evidence and considering the volcano shape described by the ammonia decomposition rate in relation to the metal composition ratio, the synergistic behavior of the system is clearly observed. However, since characterizations by XRD and TEM were inconclusive, the formation of intermetallic compounds should be still verified using HRTEM-EDS. From this point onwards, our objective is to incorporate parameters into the kinetic expressions that consider both compositional and structural elements and explore how these can maximize or influence H₂ production.

Keywords: CEDI, hydrogen carrier, LHHW, RDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 55

Authors: Robert Caulk

Abstract:

A generalized framework for adaptive machine learning deployments in algorithmic trading is introduced, tested, and released as open-source code. The presented software aims to test the hypothesis that recent data contains enough information to form a probabilistically favorable short-term price prediction. Further, the framework contains various adaptive machine learning techniques that are geared toward generating profit during strong trends and minimizing losses during trend changes. Results demonstrate that this adaptive machine learning approach is capable of capturing trends and generating profit. The presentation also discusses the importance of defining the parameter space associated with the dynamic training data-set and using the parameter space to identify and remove outliers from prediction data points. Meanwhile, the generalized architecture enables common users to exploit the powerful machinery while focusing on high-level feature engineering and model testing. The presentation also highlights common strengths and weaknesses associated with the presented technique and presents a broad range of well-tested starting points for feature set construction, target setting, and statistical methods for enforcing risk management and maintaining probabilistically favorable entry and exit points. The presentation also describes the end-to-end data processing tools associated with FreqAI, including automatic data fetching, data aggregation, feature engineering, safe and robust data pre-processing, outlier detection, custom machine learning and statistical tools, data post-processing, and adaptive training backtest emulation, and deployment of adaptive training in live environments. Finally, the generalized user interface is also discussed in the presentation. Feature engineering is simplified so that users can seed their feature sets with common indicator libraries (e.g. TA-lib, pandas-ta). The user also feeds data expansion parameters to fill out a large feature set for the model, which can contain as many as 10,000+ features. The presentation describes the various object-oriented programming techniques employed to make FreqAI agnostic to third-party libraries and external data sources. In other words, the back-end is constructed in such a way that users can leverage a broad range of common regression libraries (Catboost, LightGBM, Sklearn, etc) as well as common Neural Network libraries (TensorFlow, PyTorch) without worrying about the logistical complexities associated with data handling and API interactions. The presentation finishes by drawing conclusions about the most important parameters associated with a live deployment of the adaptive learning framework and provides the road map for future development in FreqAI.

Keywords: machine learning, market trend detection, open-source, adaptive learning, parameter space exploration

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Mohammad Anvari, Helen S. Joyner (Melito)

Abstract:

Camelina sativa (L.) Crantz is an oilseed crop currently used for the production of biofuels. However, the low price of diesel and gasoline has made camelina an unprofitable crop for farmers, leading to declining camelina production in the US. Hence, the ability to utilize camelina byproduct (defatted meal) after oil extraction would be a pivotal factor for promoting the economic value of the plant. Camelina defatted meal is rich in proteins and polysaccharides. The great diversity in the polysaccharide structural features provides a unique opportunity for use in food formulations as thickeners, gelling agents, emulsifiers, and stabilizers. There is currently a great degree of interest in the study of novel plant polysaccharides, as they can be derived from readily accessible sources and have potential application in a wide range of food formulations. However, there are no published studies on the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal, and its potential industrial applications remain largely underexploited. Rheological properties are a key functional feature of polysaccharides and are highly dependent on the material composition and molecular structure. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the rheological properties of the polysaccharide extracted from camelina meal at different conditions to obtain insight on the molecular characteristics of the polysaccharide. Flow and dynamic mechanical behaviors were determined under different temperatures (5-50°C) and concentrations (1-6% w/v). Additionally, the zeta potential of the polysaccharide dispersion was measured at different pHs (2-11) and a biopolymer concentration of 0.05% (w/v). Shear rate sweep data revealed that the camelina polysaccharide displayed shear thinning (pseudoplastic) behavior, which is typical of polymer systems. The polysaccharide dispersion (1% w/v) showed no significant changes in viscosity with temperature, which makes it a promising ingredient in products requiring texture stability over a range of temperatures. However, the viscosity increased significantly with increased concentration, indicating that camelina polysaccharide can be used in food products at different concentrations to produce a range of textures. Dynamic mechanical spectra showed similar trends. The temperature had little effect on viscoelastic moduli. However, moduli were strongly affected by concentration: samples exhibited concentrated solution behavior at low concentrations (1-2% w/v) and weak gel behavior at higher concentrations (4-6% w/v). These rheological properties can be used for designing and modeling of liquid and semisolid products. Zeta potential affects the intensity of molecular interactions and molecular conformation and can alter solubility, stability, and eventually, the functionality of the materials as their environment changes. In this study, the zeta potential value significantly decreased from 0.0 to -62.5 as pH increased from 2 to 11, indicating that pH may affect the functional properties of the polysaccharide. The results obtained in the current study showed that camelina polysaccharide has significant potential for application in various food systems and can be introduced as a novel anionic thickening agent with unique properties.

Keywords: Camelina meal, polysaccharide, rheology, zeta potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

Abstract:

The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Maryam Ziaee, Himanshu Shee, Amrik Sohal

Abstract:

Big Data Analytics (BDA) in supply chain management has recently drawn the attention of academics and practitioners. Big data refers to a massive amount of data from different sources, in different formats, generated at high speed through transactions in business environments and supply chain networks. Traditional statistical tools and techniques find it difficult to analyse this massive data. BDA can assist organisations to capture, store, and analyse data specifically in the field of supply chain. Currently, there is a paucity of research on BDA in the pharmaceutical supply chain context. In this research, the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain was selected as the case study. This industry is highly significant since the right medicine must reach the right patients, at the right time, in right quantity, in good condition, and at the right price to save lives. However, drug shortages remain a substantial problem for hospitals across Australia with implications on patient care, staff resourcing, and expenditure. Furthermore, a massive volume and variety of data is generated at fast speed from multiple sources in pharmaceutical supply chain, which needs to be captured and analysed to benefit operational decisions at every stage of supply chain processes. As the pharmaceutical industry lags behind other industries in using BDA, it raises the question of whether the use of BDA can improve transparency among pharmaceutical supply chain by enabling the partners to make informed-decisions across their operational activities. This presentation explores the impacts of BDA on supply chain management. An exploratory qualitative approach was adopted to analyse data collected through interviews. This study also explores the BDA potential in the whole pharmaceutical supply chain rather than focusing on a single entity. Twenty semi-structured interviews were undertaken with top managers in fifteen organisations (five pharmaceutical manufacturers, five wholesalers/distributors, and five public hospital pharmacies) to investigate their views on the use of BDA. The findings revealed that BDA can enable pharmaceutical entities to have improved visibility over the whole supply chain and also the market; it enables entities, especially manufacturers, to monitor consumption and the demand rate in real-time and make accurate demand forecasts which reduce drug shortages. Timely and precise decision-making can allow the entities to source and manage their stocks more effectively. This can likely address the drug demand at hospitals and respond to unanticipated issues such as drug shortages. Earlier studies explore BDA in the context of clinical healthcare; however, this presentation investigates the benefits of BDA in the Australian pharmaceutical supply chain. Furthermore, this research enhances managers’ insight into the potentials of BDA at every stage of supply chain processes and helps to improve decision-making in their supply chain operations. The findings will turn the rhetoric of data-driven decision into a reality where the managers may opt for analytics for improved decision-making in the supply chain processes.

Keywords: big data analytics, data-driven decision, pharmaceutical industry, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 106

Authors: Dominik Halstrup, Marlene Schriever

Abstract:

The industry, as one of the main energy consumer, is of critical importance along the way of transforming the energy system to Renewable Energies. The distributed character of the Energy Transition demands for further flexibility being introduced to the grid. In order to shed further light on the acceptance of Electric Energy Storage (ESS) from an industrial point of view, this study therefore examines the German manufacturing industry. The analysis in this paper uses data composed of a survey amongst 101 manufacturing companies in Germany. Being part of a two-stage research design, both qualitative and quantitative data was collected. Based on a literature review an acceptance concept was developed in the paper and four user-types identified: (Dedicated) User, Impeded User, Forced User and (Dedicated) Non-User and incorporated in the questionnaire. Both descriptive and bivariate analysis is deployed to identify the level of acceptance in the different organizations. After a factor analysis has been conducted, variables were grouped to form independent acceptance factors. Out of the 22 organizations that do show a positive attitude towards ESS, 5 have already implemented ESS and show a positive attitude towards ESS. They can be therefore considered ‘Dedicated Users’. The remaining 17 organizations have a positive attitude but have not implemented ESS yet. The results suggest that profitability plays an important role as well as load-management systems that are already in place. Surprisingly, 2 organizations have implemented ESS even though they have a negative attitude towards it. This is an example for a ‘Forced User’ where reasons of overriding importance or supporters with overriding authority might have forced the company to implement ESS. By far the biggest subset of the sample shows (critical) distance and can therefore be considered ‘(Dedicated) Non-Users’. The results indicate that the majority of the respondents have not thought ESS in their own organization through yet. For the majority of the sample one can therefore not speak of critical distance but rather a distance due to insufficient information and the perceived unprofitability. This paper identifies the relative state of acceptance of ESS in the manufacturing industry as well as current reasons for hindrance and perspectives for future growth of ESS in an industrial setting from a policy level. The interest that is currently generated by the media could be channeled and taken into a more substantial and individual discussion about ESS in an industrial setting. If the current perception of profitability could be addressed and communicated accordingly, ESS and their use in for instance cooperative business models could become a topic for more organizations in Germany and other parts of the world. As price mechanisms tend to favor existing technologies, policy makers need to further access the use of ESS and acknowledge the positive effects when integrated in an energy system. The subfields of generation, transmission and distribution become increasingly intertwined. New technologies and business models, such as ESS or cooperative arrangements entering the market, increase the number of stakeholders. Organizations need to find their place within this array of stakeholders.

Keywords: acceptance, energy storage solutions, German energy transition, manufacturing industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 225

Authors: Sempiga Olivier, Dominika Latusek-Jurczak

Abstract:

The conflict in Ukraine has had far-reaching economic consequences, not only for the countries directly involved in it but also for their trading partners and allies, and on the global economy in general. Different European Union (EU) countries, being some of Ukraine and Russia's major trading partners, have also felt the impact of the conflict on their economy. In a special way, the energy sector has suffered the most due to the fact that Russia is a huge exporter of gas and other energy sources on which rely European countries. Energy is a locomotive of the economy and once energy prices skyrocket there is a spill over effects in other areas causing different commodities’ prices to rise thereby affecting people’s social economic lifestyles. To minimise the impact energy crisis’ socio-political and economic consequences, the EU and countries have tightened their regulatory mechanisms to stop some energy firms exploit the crisis at the expense of the vulnerable mass. The key question is to what extent these regulatory instruments put in place during the energy crisis times have an affect on citizen trust in the governing institutions. The question is of paramount importance after years of declining trust in the EU and in most countries in Europe. Earlier research have analysed how wars or global political risks relate to citizen trust in government and organizations but very few empirical research have examined the relationship between regulatory instruments during the time of crisis on citizen trust in government and institutions. Using data from INSEE (the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) and European Social Survey (ESS), it carry out a multilinear regression analysis and investigate the impact of regulation both from the EU and different countries on energy prices on citizen trust. To understand the dynamics between regulatory actions during crises and citizen trust, this study draws on the theoretical framework of institutional trust and regulatory legitimacy. Institutional trust theory posits that citizens’ trust in government and institutions is influenced by perceptions of fairness, transparency, and efficacy in governance. Regulatory legitimacy, a related concept, suggests that regulatory measures, especially in response to crises, are more effective when perceived as just, necessary, and in the public interest. Results of this cross sectional study show that regulatory frameworks strongly affect the levels of trust, the association varying from strong to moderate depending on countries and period. This study contributes to the understanding of the vital relationship between regulatory measures implemented during crises and citizen trust in government institutions. By identifying the conditions under which trust is fostered or eroded, the findings provide policymakers with valuable insights into effective strategies for enhancing public confidence, ultimately guiding interventions that can mitigate the socio-political impacts of future energy crises.

Keywords: energy crisis, price, regulation, russia-Ukraine conflict, trust

Procedia PDF Downloads 8

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

Abstract:

One conundrum that macroeconomic theory faces is to explain how an economy can revive from depression, in which the aggregate demand has fallen substantially below its productive capacity. This paper examines an autonomous stabilizing mechanism using an agent-based Wicksell-Keynes macroeconomic model. This paper focuses on the effects of the number of firms and the length of the gestation period for investment that are often assumed to be one in a mainstream macroeconomic model. The simulations found the virtual economy was highly unstable, or more precisely, collapsing when these parameters are fixed at one. This finding may even suggest us to question the legitimacy of these common assumptions. A perpetual decline in capital stock will eventually encourage investment if the capital stock is short-lived because an inactive investment will result in insufficient productive capacity. However, for an economy characterized by a roundabout production method, a gradual decline in productive capacity may not be able to fall below the aggregate demand that is also shrinking. Naturally, one would then ask if our economy cannot rely on an external stimulus such as population growth and technological progress to revive investment, what factors would provide such a buoyancy for stimulating investments? The current paper attempts to answer this question by employing the artificial macroeconomic model mentioned above. The baseline model has the following three features: (1) the multi-period gestation for investment, (2) a large number of heterogeneous firms, (3) demand-constrained firms. The instability is a consequence of the following dynamic interactions. (a) A multiple-period gestation period means that once a firm starts a new investment, it continues to invest over some subsequent periods. During these gestation periods, the excess demand created by the investing firm will spill over to ignite new investment of other firms that are supplying investment goods: the presence of multi-period gestation for investment provides a field for investment interactions. Conversely, the excess demand for investment goods tends to fade away before it develops into a full-fledged boom if the gestation period of investment is short. (b) A strong demand in the goods market tends to raise the price level, thereby lowering real wages. This reduction of real wages creates two opposing effects on the aggregate demand through the following two channels: (1) a reduction in the real labor income, and (2) an increase in the labor demand due to the principle of equality between the marginal labor productivity and real wage (referred as the Walrasian labor demand). If there is only a single firm, a lower real wage will increase its Walrasian labor demand, thereby an actual labor demand tends to be determined by the derived labor demand. Thus, the second positive effect would not work effectively. In contrast, for an economy with a large number of firms, Walrasian firms will increase employment. This interaction among heterogeneous firms is a key for stability. A single firm cannot expect the benefit of such an increased aggregate demand from other firms.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, demand constraint, gestation period, representative agent model, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Debarpita Pande

Abstract:

On 22nd May 2013 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on his visit to Pakistan tabled a proposal for connecting Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region with the south-western Pakistani seaport of Gwadar via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (hereinafter referred to as CPEC). The project, popularly termed as 'One Belt One Road' will encompass within it a connectivity component including a 3000-kilometre road, railways and oil pipeline from Kashgar to Gwadar port along with an international airport and a deep sea port. Superficially, this may look like a 'game changer' for Pakistan and other countries of South Asia but this article by doctrinal method of research will unearth some serious flaws in it, which may change the entire economic system of this region heavily affecting the socio-economic conditions of South Asia, further complicating the complete geopolitical situation of the region disturbing the world economic stability. The paper besets with a logical analyzation of the socio-economic issues arising out of this project with an emphasis on its impact on the Pakistani and Indian economy due to Chinese dominance, serious tension in international relations, security issues, arms race, political and provincial concerns. The research paper further aims to study the impact of huge burden of loan given by China towards this project where Pakistan already suffers from persistent debts in the face of declining foreign currency reserves along with that the sovereignty of Pakistan will also be at stake as the entire economy of the country will be held hostage by China. The author compares this situation with the fallout from projects in Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and several countries of Africa, all of which are now facing huge debt risks brought by Chinese investments. The entire economic balance will be muddled by the increment in Pakistan’s demand of raw materials resulting to the import of the same from China, which will lead to exorbitant price-hike and limited availability. CPEC will also create Chinese dominance over the international movement of goods that will take place between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans and hence jeopardising the entire economic balance of South Asia along with Middle Eastern countries like Dubai. Moreover, the paper also analyses the impact of CPEC in the context of international unrest and arms race between Pakistan and India as well as India and China due to border disputes and Chinese surveillance. The paper also examines the global change in economic dynamics in international trade that CPEC will create in the light of U.S.-China relationship. The article thus reflects the grave consequences of CPEC on the international economy, security and bilateral relations, which surpasses the positive impacts of it. The author lastly suggests for more transparency and proper diplomatic planning in the execution of this mega project, which can be a cause of economic complexity in international trade in near future.

Keywords: China, CPEC, international trade, Pakistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Min Wang, Hui Tian

Abstract:

Health promotion of high school students is essential for the construction of ‘Healthy China’, and increasing high school students’ physical activity is a must for their health promotion. School plays a crucial role in increasing high school students’ physical activity. Therefore, to have a comprehensive command of the school physical activity promotion strategies is of great significance for the health promotion of high school students in China and will shed some light on physical activity promotion worldwide. Literature review and interview survey are the main methods adopted for this research. It has been found that reforms of P.E. classes, improving the overall quality of P.E. teachers, and construction of school fields and facilities are among the major strategies to promote students’ physical activities. Even though it has been stipulated that primary and middle school students should take 3-4 times of P.E. classes per week, the execution is greatly influenced by the exam-oriented educational system. Randomly canceling P.E. classes or taking up the time to study other subjects is common, so it is difficult to guarantee the quantity of P.E. classes. According to national surveys, only 20%-40% of schools have 3-4 times of P.E. classes per week. In order to reduce the hindering effects of the exam-oriented educational system, a physical education test is included in the senior middle school entrance exam. The exam items include 1000m run for boys, 800m run for girls, and the basic skills for basketball/football/volleyball. The scores of the physical education test will greatly influence the admission of senior middle schools. China is now developing the ‘campus football’ policy and has established 20,000 football featured schools by 2017. Especially in these schools, football has become an important part of the students’ P.E. classes and a major means to promote students’ physical activity. As the Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing in 2022, China has promoted the ‘winter sports for all’ movement. The aim is to encourage 300 million people to winter sports, and the high school students are among the most potential participants. The primary and middle schools in Beijing have introduced winter sports to their P.E. curriculum, providing opportunities for the students to experience ice hockey and curling. Some Winter Olympics champions also go to the schools to popularize winter sports among the students. This greatly adds variety to the students’ physical activity regimen at school. In November 2017, seven ministries, including the General Administration of Sport of China and Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China, release Youth Sport Promotion Strategy. The strategy stipulates to strengthen the construction of youth sport facilities and implement the cultivation plan for P.E. teachers. It also emphasizes that school sport facilities should be open to students during holidays and vacations for free or at an affordable price. Overall speaking, the Chinese government stresses the importance of youth physical activity promotion and has issued a series of related policies and strategies, but the implementation still needs improvement.

Keywords: China, physical activity, promotion, school

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Kathleen Frances Haigh, Mieke Nieder-Heitmann, Somayeh Farzad, Mohsen Ali Mandegari, Johann Ferdinand Gorgens

Abstract:

Lignocellulose can be converted to a range of biochemicals and biofuels. Where this is derived from agricultural waste, issues of competition with food are virtually eliminated. One such source of lignocellulose is the South African sugar industry. Lignocellulose could be accessed by changes to the current farming practices and investments in more efficient boilers. The South African sugar industry is struggling due to falling sugar prices and increasing costs and it is proposed that annexing a biorefinery to a sugar mill will broaden the product range and improve viability. Process simulations of the selected chemicals were generated using Aspen Plus®. It was envisaged that a biorefinery would be annexed to a typical South African sugar mill. Bagasse would be diverted from the existing boilers to the biorefinery and mixed with harvest residues. This biomass would provide the feedstock for the biorefinery and the process energy for the biorefinery and sugar mill. Thus, in all scenarios a portion of the biomass was diverted to a new efficient combined heat and power plant (CHP). The Aspen Plus® simulations provided the mass and energy balance data to carry out an economic assessment of each scenarios. The net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and minimum selling price (MSP) was calculated for each scenario. As a starting point scenarios were generated to investigate the production of ethanol, ethanol and lactic acid, ethanol and furfural, butanol, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch syncrude. The bypass to the CHP plant is a useful indicator of the energy demands of the chemical processes. An iterative approach was used to identify a suitable bypass because increasing this value had the combined effect of increasing the amount of energy available and reducing the capacity of the chemical plant. Bypass values ranged from 30% for syncrude production to 50% for combined ethanol and furfural production. A hurdle rate of 15.7% was selected for the IRR. The butanol, combined ethanol and furfural, or the Fischer-Tropsch syncrude scenarios are unsuitable for investment with IRRs of 4.8%, 7.5% and 11.5% respectively. This provides valuable insights into research opportunities. For example furfural from sugarcane bagasse is an established process although the integration of furfural production with ethanol is less well understood. The IRR for the ethanol scenario was 14.7%, which is below the investment criteria, but given the technological maturity it may still be considered for investment. The scenarios which met the investment criteria were the combined ethanol and lactic acid, and the methanol scenarios with IRRs of 20.5% and 16.7%, respectively. These assessments show that the production of biochemicals from lignocellulose can be commercially viable. In addition, this assessment have provided valuable insights for research to improve the commercial viability of additional chemicals and scenarios. This has led to further assessments of the production of itaconic acid, succinic acid, citric acid, xylitol, polyhydroxybutyrate, polyethylene, glucaric acid and glutamic acid.

Keywords: biorefineries, sugar mill, methanol, ethanol

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Radik D. Aglyamov, Alexander K. Naumov, Alexey A. Shavelev, Oleg A. Morozov, Arsenij D. Shishkin, Yury P.Brodnikovsky, Alexander A.Karabutov, Alexander A. Oraevsky, Vadim V. Semashko

Abstract:

The development of medical optoacoustic tomography with the using human blood as endogenic contrast agent is constrained by the lack of reliable, easy-to-use and inexpensive sources of high-power pulsed laser radiation in the spectral region of 750-900 nm [1-2]. Currently used titanium-sapphire, alexandrite lasers or optical parametric light oscillators do not provide the required and stable output characteristics, they are structurally complex, and their cost is up to half the price of diagnostic optoacoustic systems. Here we are developing the lasers based on Cr:LiCaAlF6 crystals which are free of abovementioned disadvantages and provides intensive ten’s ns-range tunable laser radiation at specific absorption bands of oxy- (~840 nm) and -deoxyhemoglobin (~757 nm) in the blood. Cr:LiCAF (с=3 at.%) crystals were grown in Kazan Federal University by the vertical directional crystallization (Bridgman technique) in graphite crucibles in a fluorinating atmosphere at argon overpressure (P=1500 hPa) [3]. The laser elements have cylinder shape with the diameter of 8 mm and 90 mm in length. The direction of the optical axis of the crystal was normal to the cylinder generatrix, which provides the π-polarized laser action correspondent to maximal stimulated emission cross-section. The flat working surfaces of the active elements were polished and parallel to each other with an error less than 10”. No any antireflection coating was applied. The Q-switched master oscillator-power amplifiers laser system (MOPA) with the dual-Xenon flashlamp pumping scheme in diffuse-reflectivity close-coupled head were realized. A specially designed laser cavity, consisting of dielectric highly reflective reflectors with a 2 m-curvature radius, a flat output mirror, a polarizer and Q-switch sell, makes it possible to operate sequentially in a circle (50 ns - laser one pulse after another) at wavelengths of 757 and 840 nm. The programmable pumping system from Tomowave Laser LLC (Russia) provided independent to each pulses (up to 250 J at 180 μs) pumping to equalize the laser radiation intensity at these wavelengths. The MOPA laser operates at 10 Hz pulse repetition rate with the output energy up to 210 mJ. Taking into account the limitations associated with physiological movements and other characteristics of patient tissues, the duration of laser pulses and their energy allows molecular and functional high-contrast imaging to depths of 5-6 cm with a spatial resolution of at least 1 mm. Highly likely the further comprehensive design of laser allows improving the output properties and realizing better spatial resolution of medical multispectral optoacoustic tomography systems.

Keywords: medical optoacoustic, endogenic contrast agent, multiwavelength tunable pulse lasers, MOPA laser system

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

Abstract:

Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: A. Volperts, G. Dobele, A. Zhurinsh, I. Kruusenberg, A. Plavniece, J. Locs

Abstract:

Nowadays energy consumption constantly increases and development of effective and cheap electrochemical sources of power, such as fuel cells and electrochemical capacitors, is topical. Due to their high specific power, charge and discharge rates, working lifetime supercapacitor based energy accumulation systems are more and more extensively being used in mobile and stationary devices. Lignocellulosic materials are widely used as precursors and account for around 45% of the total raw materials used for the manufacture of activated carbon which is the most suitable material for supercapacitors. First part of our research is devoted to study of influence of main stages of wood thermochemical activation parameters on activated carbons porous structure formation. It was found that the main factors governing the properties of carbon materials are specific surface area, volume and pore size distribution, particles dispersity, ash content and oxygen containing groups content. Influence of activated carbons attributes on capacitance and working properties of supercapacitor are demonstrated. The correlation between activated carbons porous structure indices and electrochemical specifications of supercapacitors with electrodes made from these materials has been determined. It is shown that if synthesized activated carbons are used in supercapacitors then high specific capacitances can be reached – more than 380 F/g in 4.9M sulfuric acid based electrolytes and more than 170 F/g in 1 M tetraethylammonium tetrafluoroborate in acetonitrile electrolyte. Power specifications and minimal price of H₂-O₂ fuel cells are limited by the expensive platinum-based catalysts. The main direction in development of non-platinum catalysts for the oxygen reduction is the study of cheap porous carbonaceous materials which can be obtained by the pyrolysis of polymers including renewable biomass. It is known that nitrogen atoms in carbon materials to a high degree determine properties of the doped activated carbons, such as high electrochemical stability, hardness, electric resistance, etc. The lack of sufficient knowledge on the doping of the carbon materials calls for the ongoing researches of properties and structure of modified carbon matrix. In the second part of this study, highly porous activated carbons were synthesized using alkali thermochemical activation from wood, cellulose and cellulose production residues – craft lignin and sewage sludge. Activated carbon samples were doped with dicyandiamide and melamine for the application as fuel cell cathodes. Conditions of nitrogen introduction (solvent, treatment temperature) and its content in the carbonaceous material, as well as porous structure characteristics, such as specific surface and pore size distribution, were studied. It was found that efficiency of doping reaction depends on the elemental oxygen content in the activated carbon. Relationships between nitrogen content, porous structure characteristics and electrodes electrochemical properties are demonstrated.

Keywords: activated carbons, low-temperature fuel cells, nitrogen doping, porous structure, supercapacitors

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Mansoureh Zangiabadi, Shamil Velji, Rajendra Kelkar, Neal Wade, Volker Pickert

Abstract:

The EU has set itself a long-term goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% of the 1990 levels by 2050 as set in the Energy Roadmap 2050. This paper reports on the European Union H2020 funded E-Lobster project which demonstrates tools and technologies, software and hardware in integrating the grid distribution, and the railway power systems with power electronics technologies (Smart Soft Open Point - sSOP) and local energy storage. In this context this paper describes the existing policies and regulatory frameworks of the energy market at European level with a special focus then at National level, on the countries where the members of the consortium are located, and where the demonstration activities will be implemented. By taking into account the disciplinary approach of E-Lobster, the main policy areas investigated includes electricity, energy market, energy efficiency, transport and smart cities. Energy storage will play a key role in enabling the EU to develop a low-carbon electricity system. In recent years, Energy Storage System (ESSs) are gaining importance due to emerging applications, especially electrification of the transportation sector and grid integration of volatile renewables. The need for storage systems led to ESS technologies performance improvements and significant price decline. This allows for opening a new market where ESSs can be a reliable and economical solution. One such emerging market for ESS is R+G management which will be investigated and demonstrated within E-Lobster project. The surplus of energy in one type of power system (e.g., due to metro braking) might be directly transferred to the other power system (or vice versa). However, it would usually happen at unfavourable instances when the recipient does not need additional power. Thus, the role of ESS is to enhance advantages coming from interconnection of the railway power systems and distribution grids by offering additional energy buffer. Consequently, the surplus/deficit of energy in, e.g. railway power systems, is not to be immediately transferred to/from the distribution grid but it could be stored and used when it is really needed. This will assure better energy management exchange between the railway power systems and distribution grids and lead to more efficient loss reduction. In this framework, to identify the existing policies and regulatory frameworks is crucial for the project activities and for the future development of business models for the E-Lobster solutions. The projections carried out by the European Commission, the Member States and stakeholders and their analysis indicated some trends, challenges, opportunities and structural changes needed to design the policy measures to provide the appropriate framework for investors. This study will be used as reference for the discussion in the envisaged workshops with stakeholders (DSOs and Transport Managers) in the E-Lobster project.

Keywords: light railway, electrical distribution network, Electrical Energy Storage, policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: D. S. Gurjar, R. Kaur, K. P. Singh, R. Singh

Abstract:

A greater volume of wastewater generate from urban areas in India. Due to the adequate availability, less energy requirement and nutrient richness, farmers of urban and peri-urban areas are deliberately using wastewater to grow high value vegetable crops. Wastewater contains pathogens and toxic pollutants, which can enter in the food chain system while using wastewater for irrigating vegetable crops. Hence, wastewater can use for growing commercial flower crops that may avoid food chain contamination. Tuberose (Polianthes tuberosa L.) is one of the most important commercially grown, cultivated over 30, 000 ha area, flower crop in India. Its popularity is mainly due to the sweet fragrance as well as the long keeping quality of the flower spikes. The flower spikes of tuberose has high market price and usually blooms during summer and rainy seasons when there is meager supply of other flowers in the market. It has high irrigation water requirement and fresh water supply is inadequate in tuberose growing areas of India. Therefore, wastewater may fulfill the water and nutrients requirements and may enhance the productivity of tuberose. Keeping in view, the present study was carried out at WTC farm of ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi in 2014-15. Prajwal was the variety of test crop. The seven treatments were taken as T-1. Wastewater irrigation at 0.6 ID/CPE, T-2: Wastewater irrigation at 0.8 ID/CPE, T-3: Wastewater irrigation at 1.0 ID/CPE, T-4: Wastewater irrigation at 1.2 ID/CPE, T-5: Wastewater irrigation at 1.4 ID/CPE, T-6: Conjunctive use of Groundwater and Wastewater irrigation at 1.0 ID/CPE in cyclic mode, T-7: Control (Groundwater irrigation at 1.0 ID/CPE) in randomized block design with three replication. Wastewater and groundwater samples were collected on monthly basis (April 2014 to March 2015) and analyzed for different parameters of irrigation quality (pH, EC, SAR, RSC), pollution hazard (BOD, toxic heavy metals and Faecal coliforms) and nutrients potential (N, P, K, Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn) as per standard methods. After harvest of tuberose crop, soil samples were also collected and analyzed for different parameters of soil quality as per standard methods. The vegetative growth and flower parameters were recorded at flowering stage of tuberose plants. Results indicated that wastewater samples had higher nutrient potential, pollution hazard as compared to groundwater used in experimental crop. Soil quality parameters such as pH EC, available phosphorous & potassium and heavy metals (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cd. Pb, Ni, Cr, Co, As) were not significantly changed whereas organic carbon and available nitrogen were significant higher in the treatments where wastewater irrigations were given at 1.2 and 1.4 ID/CPE as compared to groundwater irrigations. Significantly higher plant height (68.47 cm), leaves per plant (78.35), spike length (99.93 cm), rachis length (37.40 cm), numbers of florets per spike (56.53), cut spike yield (0.93 lakh/ha) and loose flower yield (8.5 t/ha) were observed in the treatment of Wastewater irrigation at 1.2 ID/CPE. Study concluded that given quality of wastewater improves the productivity of tuberose without an adverse impact on soil quality/health. However, its long term impacts need to be further evaluated.

Keywords: conjunctive use, irrigation, tuberose, wastewater

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Jens Hagman, Jenny Janhager Stier, Ellen Olausson, Anne Y. Faxer, Ana Magazinius

Abstract:

Sweden has the second highest electric vehicle (plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicle) sales per capita in Europe but in relation to sales of internal combustion engine electric vehicles sales are still minuscular (< 4%). Much research effort has been placed on various technical and user focused barriers and enablers for adoption of electric vehicles. Less effort has been placed on investigating the retail (dealership-customer) sales process of vehicles in general and electric vehicles in particular. Arguably, no one ought to be better informed about needs and desires of potential electric vehicle buyers than car salesmen, originating from their daily encounters with customers at the dealership. The aim of this paper is to explore the conditions of selling electric vehicle from a car salesmen’s perspective. This includes identifying barriers and enablers for electric vehicle sales originating from internal (dealership and brand) and external (customer, government) sources. In this interview study five car brands (manufacturers) that sell both electric and internal combustion engine vehicles have been investigated. A total of 15 semi-structured interviews have been conducted (three per brand, in rural and urban settings and at different dealerships). Initial analysis reveals several barriers and enablers, experienced by car salesmen, which influence electric vehicle sales. Examples of as reported by car salesmen identified barriers are: -Electric vehicles earn car salesmen less commission on average compared to internal combustion engine vehicles. -It takes more time to sell and deliver an electric vehicle than an internal combustion engine vehicle. -Current leasing contracts entails relatively low second-hand value estimations for electric vehicles and thus a high leasing fee, which negatively affects the attractiveness of electric vehicles for private consumers in particular. -High purchasing price discourages many consumers from considering electric vehicles. -The education and knowledge level of electric vehicles differs between car salesmen, which could affect their self-confidence in meeting well prepared and question prone electric vehicle buyers. Examples of identified enablers are: -Company car tax regulation promotes sales of electric vehicles; in particular, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are sold extensively to companies (up to 95 % of sales). -Low operating cost of electric vehicles such as fuel and service is an advantage when understood by consumers. -The drive performance of electric vehicles (quick, silent and fun to drive) is attractive to consumers. -Environmental aspects are considered important for certain consumer groups. -Fast technological improvements, such as increased range are opening up a wider market for electric vehicles. -For one of the brands; attractive private lease campaigns have proved effective to promote sales. This paper gives insights of an important but often overlooked aspect for the diffusion of electric vehicles (and durable products in general); the interaction between car salesmen and customers at the critical acquiring moment. Extracted through interviews with multiple car salesmen. The results illuminate untapped potential for sellers (salesmen, dealerships and brands) to mitigating sales barriers and strengthening sales enablers and thus becoming a more important actor in the electric vehicle diffusion process.

Keywords: customer barriers, electric vehicle promotion, sales of electric vehicles, interviews with car salesmen

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Brian J. Biroscak

Abstract:

In the United States (US), “sex trafficking” is defined at the federal level in the Trafficking Victims Protection Act of 2000 as encompassing a number of processes such as recruitment, transportation, and provision of a person for the purpose of a commercial sex act. It involves the use of force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the person induced to perform such act has not attained 18 years of age. Accumulating evidence suggests that sex trafficking is exacerbated by social and environmental stressors (e.g., pandemics). Given that “provision” is a key part of the definition, “provisioning systems” may offer a useful lens through which to study sex trafficking dynamics. Provisioning systems are the social systems connecting individuals, small groups, entities, and embedded communities as they seek to satisfy their needs and wants for goods, services, experiences and ideas through value-based exchange in communities. This project presents a conceptual framework for understanding sex trafficking dynamics in the context of the COVID pandemic. The framework is developed as a system dynamics simulation model based on published evidence, social and behavioral science theory, and key informant interviews with stakeholders from the Protection, Prevention, Prosecution, and Partnership sectors in one US state. This “4 P Paradigm” has been described as fundamental to the US government’s anti-trafficking strategy. The present research question is: “How do sex trafficking systems (e.g., supply, demand and price) interact with other provisioning systems (e.g., networks of organizations that help sexually exploited persons) to influence trafficking over time vis-à-vis the COVID pandemic?” Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (n = 19) were analyzed based on grounded theory and combined for computer simulation. The first step (Problem Definition) was completed by open coding video-recorded interviews, supplemented by a literature review. The model depicts provision of sex trafficking services for victims and survivors as declining in March 2020, coincidental with COVID, but eventually rebounding. The second modeling step (Dynamic Hypothesis Formulation) was completed by open- and axial coding of interview segments, as well as consulting peer-reviewed literature. Part of the hypothesized explanation for changes over time is that the sex trafficking system behaves somewhat like a commodities market, with each of the other subsystems exhibiting delayed responses but collectively keeping trafficking levels below what they would be otherwise. Next steps (Model Building & Testing) led to a ‘proof of concept’ model that can be used to conduct simulation experiments and test various action ideas, by taking model users outside the entire system and seeing it whole. If sex trafficking dynamics unfold as hypothesized, e.g., oscillated post-COVID, then one potential leverage point is to address the lack of information feedback loops between the actual occurrence and consequences of sex trafficking and those who seek to prevent its occurrence, prosecute the traffickers, protect the victims and survivors, and partner with the other anti-trafficking advocates. Implications for researchers, administrators, and other stakeholders are discussed.

Keywords: pandemics, provisioning systems, sex trafficking, system dynamics modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 79