Search results for: mould growth risk

Authors: Alaa M. Younis, Ismail S. Ismail, Lamiaa I. Mohamedein, Shimaa F. Ahmed

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Sandy surface sediments collected from fourteen sites along the gulfs of Suez and Aqaba coasts, Egypt were analyzed for heavy metals including Iron, Manganese, Zinc, Chromium, Nickel, Lead, Copper and Cadmium in order to evaluate the pollution status and environmental risk assessment of the study area. The obtained results showed that the concentrations of investigated metals are represented in the following sequence; For Gulf of Aqaba sediments Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni > Cu > Cd. While for Gulf of Suez Sediments Fe > Mn > Pb > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd. The degree of surface sediment contamination using Geo-accumulation index (I geo) and Metal Pollution Index (MPI) was computed. Higher MPI values were observed at the sites III (Nama Bay) and VIII (Rex Beach). According to Sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) approach, Pb and Cu in the gulf of Suez at station IX (Kabanon Beach) had probably adverse ecological effects to marine organisms.

Keywords: heavy metal, environmental risk, Suez gulf, Aqaba gulf

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Authors: Mohammad Rajabalinejad

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Safety is often seen as a requirement or a performance indicator through the design process, and this does not always result in optimally safe products or systems. This paper suggests integrating the best safety practices with the design process to enrich the exploration experience for designers and add extra values for customers. For this purpose, the commonly practiced safety standards and design methods have been reviewed and their common blocks have been merged forming Safety Cube. Safety Cube combines common blocks for design, hazard identification, risk assessment and risk reduction through an integral approach. An example application presents the use of Safety Cube for design of machinery.

Keywords: safety, safety cube, product, system, machinery, design

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Authors: Masoud Abedini, Azrul A. Mutalib

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A study of the used of additives which mixed with concrete in order to increase the strength and durability of concrete was examined to improve the quality of many aspects in the concrete. This paper presents a polypropylene (PP) fibre was added into concrete to study the dynamic response under impact load. References related to dynamic impact test for sample polypropylene fibre reinforced concrete (PPFRC) is very limited and there is no specific research and information related to this research. Therefore, the study on the dynamic impact of PPFRC using a Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB) was done in this study. Provided samples for this study was composed of 1.0 kg/m³ PP fibres, 2.0 kg/m³ PP fibres and plain concrete as a control samples. This PP fibre contains twisted bundle non-fibrillating monofilament and fibrillating network fibres. Samples were prepared by cylindrical mould with three samples of each mix proportion, 28 days curing period and concrete grade 35 Mpa. These samples are then tested for dynamic impact by SHPB at 2 Mpa pressure under the strain rate of 10 s-1. Dynamic compressive strength results showed an increase of SC1 and SC2 samples than the control sample which is 13.22 % and 76.9 % respectively with the dynamic compressive strength of 74.5 MPa and 116.4 MPa compared to 65.8 MPa. Dynamic increased factor (DIF) shows that, sample SC2 gives higher value with 4.15 than others samples SC1 and SC3 that gives the value of 2.14 and 1.97 respectively.

Keywords: polypropylene fiber, Split Hopkinson Pressure Bar, impact load, dynamic compressive strength

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Authors: Kh Jalali Dehkordi, A. Jalali Dehkordi, A. Tofighi

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Background: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of 8 weeks of aerobic, resistance, and concurrent training on secretion of growth hormone (GH) and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) in elderly women. Methods: A total number of 60 elderly women were randomly allocated to four groups of aerobic training (n = 15), resistance training (n = 15), concurrent training (n = 15), and control (n = 15). Blood samples were taken before and 4 weeks after the initiation of exercise training and also at the end of the 8-week course of training. Maximal oxygen consumption (VO2Peak) was measured after 48 hours using Rockport walk test. Inferential analysis of the collected data was performed by repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA). Significant differences were further evaluated by the least significant difference (LSD) test. The relation between VO2Peak and secretion of GH and IGF-1 was assessed by Pearson's correlation coefficient. The significance level was considered as P ≤ 0.05 in all tests. Findings: The results showed that 8 weeks of regular exercise significantly increased levels of GH and IGF-1. A significant increase was also observed in VO2Peak values after 8 weeks of regular exercise (P < 0.05). VO2Peak was directly correlated with GH and IGF (P < 0.001, r = 0.72). Conclusion: In conclusion, regular exercise significantly increased levels of anabolic hormones. Moreover, the combined-exercise training better enhanced GH and IGF-1. VO2Peak increased with increases in GH and IGF-1 levels.

Keywords: women, training, GH, IGF-1

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Authors: Arjun K., Arumugam Sankaran, Sanjay Kumar, Mousumi Das

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The paper analyses the existence of endogenous growth scenario emanating from the demographic dividend in India during the liberalization period starting from 1980. Demographic dividend creates a fertile ground for the cultivation of human and knowledge capitals contributing to technological progress which can be measured using total factor productivity. The relationship among total factor productivity, human and knowledge capitals are examined in an open endogenous framework for the period 1980-2016. The control variables such as foreign direct investment, trade openness, energy consumption are also employed. The data are sourced from Reserve Bank of India, World Bank, International Energy Agency and The National Science and Technology Management Information System. To understand the dynamic association among variables, ARDL bounds approach to cointegration followed by Toda-Yamamoto causality test are used. The results reveal a short run and long run relationship among the variables supported by the existence of causality. This calls for an integrated policy to build and augment human capital and research and development activities to sustain and pace up growth and development in the nation.

Keywords: demographic dividend, young population, open endogenous growth models, human and knowledge capital

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Authors: Liang Jiansheng, Zhu Wei

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Light and brassinosteroids are essential external and internal cues for plant survival. Although the coordination of light with phytohormone signals is crucial for plant growth and development, the molecular connection between light and brassinosteroid signaling during root soil penetration remains elusive. Here, we reveal that light-stabilized RACK1 couples a brassinosteroid signaling cascade to drive cell division in root meristems. RACK1 family scaffold proteins positively regulate light-induced the promotion of root elongation during soil penetration. Under the light condition, RACK1A interacts with both phyB and SPA1, then reinforces the phyB-SPA1 association to accumulate its abundance in roots. In response to brassinosteroid signals, RACK1A competes with BKI1 to attenuate the BRI1-BKI1 interaction, thereby leading to activating BRI1 actions in root development. Furthermore, RACK1A binds to BES1 to repress its DNA binding activity toward the target gene CYCD3;1. This ultimately allows to release the inhibition of CYCD3;1 transcription, and promotes cell division during root growth. Our study illustrates a new mechanistic model of how plants engage scaffold proteins in transducing light information to facilitate brassinosteroid signaling for root growth in the soil.

Keywords: root growth, cell division, light signaling, brassinosteroid signaling, soil penetration, scaffold protein, RACK1

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Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

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In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

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Authors: Purba Biswas, Priyanka Dey

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Worldwide rapid urbanisation has accelerated city expansion in both developed and developing nations. This unprecedented urbanisation trend due to the increasing population and economic growth has caused challenges for the decision-makers in city planning and urban management. Metropolitan cities, class-I towns, and major urban centres undergo a continuous process of evolution due to interaction between socio-cultural and economic attributes. This constant evolution leads to urban expansion in all directions. Understanding the patterns and dynamics of urban built-up growth is crucial for policymakers, urban planners, and researchers, as it aids in resource management, decision-making, and the development of sustainable strategies to address the complexities associated with rapid urbanisation. Identifying spatio-temporal patterns of urban growth has emerged as a crucial challenge in monitoring and assessing present and future trends in urban development. Analysing urban growth patterns and tracking changes in land use is an important aspect of urban studies. This study analyses spatio-temporal urban transformations and land-use and land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Built-up growth analysis has been done for the city of Surat as a case example, using the GIS tools of NDBI and GIS models of the Built-up Urban Density Index and Shannon Entropy Index to identify trends and the geographical direction of transformation from 2005 to 2020. Surat is one of the fastest-growing urban centres in both the state and the nation, ranking as the 4th fastest-growing city globally. This study analyses the dynamics of urban built-up area transformations both zone-wise and geographical direction-wise, in which their trend, rate, and magnitude were calculated for the period of 15 years. This study also highlights the need for analysing and monitoring the urban growth pattern of class-I cities in India using spatio-temporal and quantitative techniques like GIS for improved urban management.

Keywords: urban expansion, built-up, geographic information system, remote sensing, Shannon’s entropy

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Authors: Emma Avoyan

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The safety standards for flood protection in the Netherlands have been revised recently. It is expected that all major flood-protection structures will have to be reinforced to meet the new standards. The Dutch Flood Protection Programme aims at accomplishing this task through innovative integrated projects such as construction of multi-functional flood defenses. In these projects, flood safety purposes will be combined with spatial planning, nature development, emergency management or other sectoral objectives. Therefore, implementation of dike reinforcement projects requires early involvement and collaboration between public and private sectors, different governmental actors and agencies. The development and implementation of such integrated projects has been an issue in Dutch flood risk management since long. Therefore, this article analyses how cross-sector collaboration within flood risk governance in the Netherlands has evolved over time, and how this development can be explained. The integrative framework for collaborative governance is applied as an analytical tool to map external factors framing possibilities as well as constraints for cross-sector collaboration in Dutch flood risk domain. Supported by an extensive document and literature analysis, the paper offers insights on how the system context and different drivers changing over time either promoted or hindered cross-sector collaboration between flood protection sector, urban development, nature conservation or any other sector involved in flood risk governance. The system context refers to the multi-layered and interrelated suite of conditions that influence the formation and performance of complex governance systems, such as collaborative governance regimes, whereas the drivers initiate and enable the overall process of collaboration. In addition, by applying a method of process tracing we identify a causal and chronological chain of events shaping cross-sectoral interaction in Dutch flood risk management. Our results indicate that in order to evaluate the performance of complex governance systems, it is important to firstly study the system context that shapes it. Clear understanding of the system conditions and drivers for collaboration gives insight into the possibilities of and constraints for effective performance of complex governance systems. The performance of the governance system is affected by the system conditions, while at the same time the governance system can also change the system conditions. Our results show that the sequence of changes within the system conditions and drivers over time affect how cross-sector interaction in Dutch flood risk governance system happens now. Moreover, we have traced the potential of this governance system to shape and change the system context.

Keywords: collaborative governance, cross-sector interaction, flood risk management, the Netherlands

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Authors: Abhijit Trailokya

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD’s) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Many clinical trials have demonstrated that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering, reduces the incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events across a broad spectrum of patients at risk. Guidelines for the management of patients at risk have been established in Europe and North America. The guidelines have advocated progressively lower LDL-C targets and more aggressive use of statin therapy. In Indian patients, comprehensive data on dyslipidemia management and its treatment outcomes are inadequate. There is lack of information on existing treatment patterns, the patient’s profile being treated, and factors that determine treatment success or failure in achieving desired goals. Purpose: The present study was planned to determine the lipid control status in high-risk dyslipidemic patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy in India. Methods: This cross-sectional, non-interventional, single visit program was conducted across 483 sites in India where male and female patients with high-risk dyslipidemia aged 18 to 65 years who had visited for a routine health check-up to their respective physician at hospital or a healthcare center. Percentage of high-risk dyslipidemic patients achieving adequate LDL-C level (< 70 mg/dL) on lipid-lowering therapy and the association of lipid parameters with patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, and lipid lowering drugs were analysed. Results: 3089 patients were enrolled in the study; of which 64% were males. LDL-C data was available for 95.2% of the patients; only 7.7% of these patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid-lowering therapy, which may be due to inability to follow therapeutic plans, poor compliance, or inadequate counselling by physician. The physician’s lack of awareness about recent treatment guidelines also might contribute to patients’ poor adherence, not explaining adequately the benefit and risks of a medication, not giving consideration to the patient’s life style and the cost of medication. Statin was the most commonly used anti-dyslipidemic drug across population. The higher proportion of patients had the comorbid condition of CVD and diabetes mellitus across all dyslipidemic patients. Conclusion: As per the European Society of Cardiology guidelines the ideal LDL-C levels in high risk dyslipidemic patients should be less than 70%. In the present study, 7.7% of the patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid lowering therapy which is very less. Most of high risk dyslipidemic patients in India are on suboptimal dosage of statin. So more aggressive and high dosage statin therapy may be required to achieve target LDLC levels in high risk Indian dyslipidemic patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, LDL-C, lipid lowering drug, statins

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Authors: Pankaj Kumar

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Despite few works reported about fluoride enrichment in the groundwater, no studies have done on exposure analysis for biological components in Patan district, Gujarat, Western India. Considering its vital importance, this study strives to quantify the bioaccumulation of fluoride in seven different crops and vegetables, viz. Spinach and Mustard leaves, Cauliflower, Wheat grains, Amaranth seed, Radish, and Garlic grown in the potentially fluoride contaminated area. Result shows that the order for fluoride accumulation among different analyzed plants are spinach (63.3 mg/kg) > mustard (48.9 mg/kg) > cauliflower (41.1 mg/kg) > radish (35.7 mg/kg) > garlic (33.2 mg/kg) > amaranth seed (26.7 mg/kg) > wheat (22.5 mg/kg). Fluoride concentration was highest in leafy vegetable, whereas the lowest was in wheat grains. Finally, estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated for local consumers of different age group, where it was found that young people (4-15 years) are at the highest risk of fluorosis. This study is relevant for better crop management, like substituting crops with woody plants, flowers, and people awareness.

Keywords: fluoride, bioaccumulation, health risk, water

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Mostafa M. Rady, Majed M. Howladar, Saad M. Howladar

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A field trial was conducted during two successive seasons (2013 and 2014) in Southeast Fayoum, Egypt (29º 17'N; 30º 53'E) to investigate the improving effect of ascorbic acid (Vit C) foliar spray at the rates of 0, 1, 2 or 3 mM on the growth, seed and oil yields, and some chemical constituents of sunflower plants grown on a reclaimed saline soil (EC = 7.98–7.83). Vit C application at all rates (1, 2 and 3 mM) was significantly increased growth traits, seed and oil yields, and the concentrations of endogenous Vit C, leaf photosynthetic pigments, total soluble sugars, free proline and nutrient elements as well as K/Na ratio. In contrast, Na concentration was significantly reduced with the application of all Vit C levels. Vit C foliar spray at the rate of 2 mM was found to be the best treatment, alleviating the inhibitory effects of salinity on sunflower plants grown on a reclaimed saline soil.

Keywords: Helianthus annuus L., Vit C, salinity, growth, seed and oil yields, osmoprotectants

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Authors: M. Medrano, M. D. M. S., L. Younes, M. D.

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Introduction: Incidence of tibial hemimelia is 1:1,000,000. Due to pre-existing case studies and literature, there is now a better understanding of the genetics, etiology and pathoanatomy of tibial hemimelia, but an underlying cause is generally unknown. This presentation aims to discuss a rare, congenital lower limb deficiency observed in a patient in order to identify potential prenatal risk factors and future considerations for the patient’s well-being. Observation: A newborn female child, born full term via spontaneous vaginal delivery after induction of labor to unaffected and non-consanguineous parents. The prenatal course was notable for limited and disjointed prenatal care as well as maternal tobacco and marijuana use, anemia of pregnancy, and inadequate weight gain. Prenatal imaging showed lower extremity deformity with the inability to visualize tibia and bilateral clubfeet in the setting of Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR). The patient presented with right equino varus deformity of the foot and right knee joint deformity. Radiological imaging showed the absence of the right tibia and varus angulation of the right foot with dislocation of the tibiotalar joint. Normal femur with lateral and mild anterior displacement of a wide fibula (Weber Type VIIa). Due to the absence of the patient’s tibia and knee extensor mechanism, the patient was not a candidate for reconstructive surgery and ultimately underwent successful right knee disarticulation. Discussion and Conclusion: By utilizing a retrospective chart review of this case, possible risk factors in prenatal care may be identified and add to existing knowledge on etiology. Hopefully, a cause can be clearly identified in the future and, thus, addressed in the prenatal period. In addition, we can investigate the patient’s well-being and adjustment post-operatively to support outpatient management of an uncommon anomaly.

Keywords: Tibial hemimelia, prenatal care, pediatric orthopedics, congenital deformity

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Authors: Remy Jonkam Oben

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Using a time series approach, this study investigates how natural resources impact financial development from a global perspective over the 1980-2019 period. Some important determinants of financial development (economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment) have been added to the model as control variables. Unit root tests have revealed that all the variables are integrated into order one. Johansen's cointegration test has shown that the variables are in a long-run equilibrium relationship. The vector error correction model (VECM) has estimated the coefficient of the error correction term (ECT), which suggests that the short-run values of natural resources, economic growth, trade openness, population growth, and investment contribute to financial development converging to its long-run equilibrium level by a 23.63% annual speed of adjustment. The estimated coefficients suggest that global natural resource rent has a statistically-significant negative impact on global financial development in the long-run (thereby validating the financial resource curse) but not in the short-run. Causality test results imply that neither global natural resource rent nor global financial development Granger-causes each other.

Keywords: financial development, natural resources, resource curse hypothesis, time series analysis, Granger causality, global perspective

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Authors: Maria Manzoor, Iram Gul, Muhammad Arshad, Jean Kallerhoff

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The potential of fungal isolates to be used in phytoremediation of widespread lead contaminated soil has been evaluated in this study. Five different fungal isolates (Trichoderma harzianum, Penicillium simplicissimum, Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus niger and Mucor spp.) were obtained and tested for their tolerance to increasing concentration of lead (Pb) i.e. 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 mgL-1 on PDA and PDB culture experiment. All strains were tolerant up to 500 mgL-1 following sequence; A. flavus > A. niger > Mucor spp. > P. simplicissimum > T. harzianum. Further the isolates were then monitored for possible effect on Pb solubility/mobility through soil incubation experiments and characterized for essays including pathogenicity, germination and root elongation and plant growth promoting activities including IAA (indole acetic acid), phosphorus solubilization and gibberellic acid (GA3) production. Results revealed that fungal isolates have positive effect on Pb mobility in soil and plant biomass production. Pb solubility was significantly (P> 0.05) increased in soil upon application of Mucor spp. P. simplicissimum and T. harzianum. when compared to control. Among different strains three isolates (Mucor spp., P. simplicissimum and T. harzianum) were nonpathogenic because no inhibitory effect of fungus was observed to plant growth when exposed to these strains in root shoot elongation essay. Particularly T. harzianum and P. simplicissimum showed great ability to increase root length by 1.1 and 1.3 folds and shoot length by 1.47 and 1.5 folds respectively under Pb stress (500 mgL-1). Significantly high production of IAA was observed in A. niger (26.7 μg/ml), Phosphorus solubilization was observed in T. harzianum (9.15 μg/ml) and GA3 production was observed in P. simplicissimum (11.02 μg/ml). From results it is concluded that Mucor spp., P. simplicissimum and T. harzianum have potential to increase Pb mobility and improving plant growth under highy Pb contamination, therefore can be used in microbially assisted phytoremediation of Pb contaminated soil.

Keywords: Pb tolerant fungus, Pb mobility, plant growth promoting activities, indole acetic acid (IAA)

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Authors: Mei-Ying Huang, Huei-Jen Ju, Liang-Wei Tseng, Chin-Jung Hsu

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The aim of this study was to investigate a probiotic, Leuconostoc mesenteroides B4, and its products, isomaltooligosaccharide and dextran, on growth performance, digestive enzymes, immune responses, and pathogen resistance of spotted grouper Epinephelus coioides. The grouper were fed control and diets supplemented with L. mesenteroides B4 (107 CFU/g), isomaltooligosaccharide (0.15%), isomaltooligosaccharide (0.15%) + L. mesenteroides B4 (107 CFU/g) (I + B4), and dextran (0.15%) + L. mesenteroides B4 (107 CFU/g) (D + B4) for 8 weeks. The result showed that final weights and percent weight gains of the grouper fed diets supplemented with L. mesenteroides B4 and I + B4 were significantly higher than that of the control group (p < 0.05). The activities of digestive enzymes in the grouper fed with I + B4 were significantly higher than the control group (p < 0.05), too. After challenge with Vibrio harveyi, the enzyme activities of antiprotease and lysozyme as well as of respiratory burst of the fish fed with I + B4 and D + B4 were significantly higher than that of the control group (p < 0.05). The grouper fed with the both diets also had higher survival rates than that of the control group after the challenge. Overall, the study indicated that feeding diets supplemented with L. mesenteroides B4, and its products, isomaltooligosaccharide, and dextran could be an effective method for enhancing the growth performance and disease resistance in orange-spotted grouper.

Keywords: orange-spotted grouper, probiotic Leuconostoc mesenteroides B4, isomaltooligosaccharide, dextran, growth performance, pathogen resistance

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Authors: Jan Henrik Wosnitza

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The logistic regression has developed into a standard approach for estimating conditional probabilities in a wide range of applications including credit risk prediction. The article at hand contributes to the current literature on logistic regression fourfold: First, it is demonstrated that the binary logistic regression automatically meets its model assumptions under very general conditions. This result explains, at least in part, the logistic regression's popularity. Second, the requirement of homoscedasticity in the context of binary logistic regression is theoretically substantiated. The variances among the groups of defaulted and non-defaulted obligors have to be the same across the level of the aggregated default indicators in order to achieve linear logits. Third, this article sheds some light on the question why nonlinear logits might be superior to linear logits in case of a small amount of data. Fourth, an innovative methodology for estimating correlations between obligor-specific log-odds is proposed. In order to crystallize the key ideas, this paper focuses on the example of credit risk prediction. However, the results presented in this paper can easily be transferred to any other field of application.

Keywords: correlation, credit risk estimation, default correlation, homoscedasticity, logistic regression, nonlinear logistic regression

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Authors: Ronit Chakraborty, Sugata Banerji

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There has been a marked increase in the reported prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) among children in the US over the past two decades. This research has analyzed the growth in state-level ASD prevalence against 45 different potentially explanatory factors, including socio-economic, demographic, healthcare, public policy, and political factors. The goal was to understand if these factors have adequate predictive power in modeling the differential growth in ASD prevalence across various states and if they do, which factors are the most influential. The key findings of this study include (1) the confirmation that the chosen feature set has considerable power in predicting the growth in ASD prevalence, (2) the identification of the most influential predictive factors, (3) given the nature of the most influential predictive variables, an indication that a considerable portion of the reported ASD prevalence differentials across states could be attributable to over and under diagnosis, and (4) identification of Florida as a key outlier state pointing to a potential under-diagnosis of ASD there.

Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, clustering, machine learning, predictive modeling

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Authors: Onyebueke Godwin, Okwarafor Friday

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Introduction: Persons with HIV/AIDS disease are predisposed to mental health disorders such as depression and suicide. HIV/AIDS, being a chronic medical illness with antecedent stigmatization ostracization, leads to low mood, low self-esteem, and a tendency to kill oneself due to the burden of the disease in terms of cost and disability. The aim of one study was to examine the prevalence of depression and risk of suicide among HIV/AIDS patients compared to negative persons. Instruments: The Major Depressive Episode and Suicidality modules of the MINI-Neuropsychiatric inventory were used to screen the attendees. Report: The prevalence of depression and risk of suicide were 27.8% and 7.8%, respectively, for the HIV positive subjects, but 1208% and 2.2%, respectively, for negative subjects. Conclusion and Significance: Persons with HIV/AIDS usually present with mental health symptoms, but the attending physicians usually pay attention to physical symptoms. The symptoms of the disease or the side effects of the medication may mask the mental health disease. Recommendation: There is need to screen HIV/AIDS patents for mental health disorders during clinic visits.

Keywords: depression, HIV/AIDS, suicidality

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Authors: Paras Agarwal

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Background: Initially believed to be rare, metastases to the eye are the most common ocular malignancy. The choroid’s high perfusion rate not only makes it the most susceptible ocular site for tumour seeding, but also promotes its growth. The cancers most frequently responsible for choroidal metastases originate from the breast and lung, although a significant proportion have unidentified primaries at the time of presentation. Case Presentation: This case report describes a 34 year old female presenting to the ophthalmology department with a one month history of painless distorted vision. On fundus examination, she was noted to have bilateral choroidal lesionsand subsequently underwent a comprehensive diagnostic work-up. The patient was diagnosed with metastatic pulmonary adenocarcinoma, despite lacking conventional risk factors. As she was found to have a mutation in EGFR, the patient was commenced on tyrosine-kinase inhibition with afatinib. The choroidal lesions regressed with a significant improvement in visual acuity and a dramatic anatomical reduction of the choroidal masses. Conclusions: Our case demonstrates the importance of considering metastases as a differential diagnosis for choroidal lesions. Appropriate and thorough history-taking, examination and investigations may be required in order to deduce the underlying cause. Our case is unusual in view of the choroidal lesion being the primary manifestation of metastatic lung cancer in a young patient with no known risk factors. Early recognition of choroidal metastases is important as it is often the first sign of tumour dissemination and will prompt earlier treatment with systemic medications such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy or hormonal therapy. Our case report also demonstrates the efficacy of afatinib for the treatment of choroidal metastases, with morphological and functional improvements observed with regard to the choroidal metastatic tumour.

Keywords: choroidal neoplasm, choroidal naevus, pulmonary adenocarcinoma, metastases, lung cancer

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Authors: Zohreh Bang Tavakoli, Shuktika Chatterjee

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This study investigates the fiscal policy impact on countries’ economic growth in developing countries with a different external debt level. The fiscal policy effectiveness has been re-emphasized in the global financial crisis of 2008 with the external debt as its new contemporary driver (Ruščáková and Semančíková, 2016). According to Bouakez, (2014 ) different theories have proposed the economic consequence of fiscal policy, specifically for developing countries. However, fiscal policy literature is lacking research regarding the fiscal policy’s effectiveness with the external debt’s contributions through comprehensive study (Canh, 2018). Also, according to scholars, high levels of external debt will influence economic growth. First, through foreign resources and channel of investment in which high level of debt decreases the amount of foreign investment in the developing countries. Second, through the deterioration of foreign investors and fiscal policies related to a high level of debt (Cordella, et.al., 2010). Therefore, this study proposed that only countries with a low external debt level and appropriate fiscal policies and good quality institutions can gain the proper quantity and quality of foreign investors, which will help the economic growth. For this, this research is examining the impact of fiscal policy on developing countries' economic growth in the situation of different external debt levels.

Keywords: fiscal policy, external debt, gross domestic product, developing countries

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Authors: Tamar Khardziani, Violeta Berikashvili, Mariam Rusitashvili, Eva Kachlishvili, Vladimir Elisashvili, Mikheil Asatiani

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Last years, the search for natural sources of novel and effective antifungal substances became a scientific and technological challenge. In the present research, thirty basidiomycetes isolated from various ecological niches of Georgia and belonging to different taxonomic groups were screened for their antifungal activities against pathogenic fungi such as Aspergillus, Fusarium, and Guignardia bidwellii. Among mushroom tested, several potential producers of antifungal substances have been revealed, such as Schizophyllum commune, Lentinula edodes, Ganoderma abietinum, Fomes fomentarius, Hericium erinaceus, and Trametes versicolor. For mushroom cultivation and expression of antifungal potential, submerged and solid-state fermentations of different plant raw materials were performed and various approaches and strategies have been exploited. Sch. commune appeared as a most promising producer of antifungal compounds. It was established that among different agro-industrial wastes, the presence of mandarin juice production waste in a nutrient medium, causing the significant increase of antifungal activity Sch. commune (growth inhibition: Aspergillus – 59 %, Fusarium – 55 %, G. bidwellii – 78 %, after 3, 2 and 4 days of cultivation, respectively). Besides this, Sch. commune demonstrate similar antifungal activities in the presence of glucose, glycerol, maltose, mannitol, and xylose, and growth inhibition of Fusarium ranged in 41 % - 49 % during 6 days of cultivation. Inhibition of Aspergillus growth inhibition varied in 27 % - 36 %, and inhibition of G. bidwellii was in the range 49 % - 61 %, respectively. Sch. commune under solid-state fermentation of mandarin peels at 13 days of cultivation demonstrates powerful growth inhibition of pathogenic fungi (growth inhibition: Aspergillus – 50 %, Fusarium – 61 %, G. bidwellii – 68 %, after 3, 4, and 4 days of cultivation, respectively) as well as at 20 days old mushroom (growth inhibition: Aspergillus – 41 %, Fusarium – 54 %, G. bidwellii – 66 %, after 3 days of cultivation). It was established that Sch. commune was effective as a producer of antifungal compounds in submerged as well as in solid-state fermentation. Finally, performed study confirms that the higher basidiomycetes possess antifungal potential, which strongly depends on the physiological factors of growth. Acknowledgments: The work was implemented with the financial support of fundamental science project FR-19-3719 by the Shota Rustaveli National Science Foundation of Georgia.

Keywords: antifungal potential, higher basidiomycetes, pathogenic fungi, submerged and solid-state fermentation

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Authors: Chayakarn Bamrungbutr, James Sillitoe

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The term ‘shadow port’ is used to describe a port whose markets are dominated by an adjacent port that has a more competitive capability. Recently, researchers have put effort into studying the mechanisms of how a regional port, in the shadow of a nearby predominant port which is a capital city port, can compete and grow. However, such mechanism is still unclear. This study thus focuses on understanding the growth of shadow port and the type of shadow port by using the two capital city ports of Thailand; Bangkok port (the former main port) and Laem Chabang port (the current main port), as the case study. By developing an understanding of the mechanisms of shadow, port could ultimately lead to an increase in the competitiveness. In this study, a framework of opportunity capture (introduced by Magala, 2004) will be used to create a framework for the study of the growth of the selected shadow port. In the process of building this framework, five groups of port development experts, consisting of government, council, academia, logistics provider and industry, will be interviewed. To facilitate this work, the Noticing, Collecting and Thinking model which was developed by Seidel (1998) will be used in an analysis of the dataset. The resulting analysis will be used to classify the type of shadow port. The type of these ports will be a significant factor for developing a feasible strategic guideline for the future management planning of ports, particularly, shadow ports, and then to increase the competitiveness of a nation’s maritime transport industry, and eventually lead to a boost in the national economy.

Keywords: shadow port, Bangkok Port, Laem Chabang Port, port growth

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Authors: Ugbor Raphael Oluchukwu

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The survey research design was adopted to examine whether liquidity and cash management practices of owner-managed firms in South East Nigeria influence their profitability, growth and survival. Four independent variables (accounting systems, working capital management, budgetary control, and managerial planning) were used in the evaluation which was restricted to eight small firms. Results indicate that one variable, working capital management alone dominate the liquidity perception of owner managers. As a result, owner managers find it difficult to meet maturing business obligations as growth sets in. The study also reveals that the four independent variables have significant impact on the profitability, growth and survival of owner managed firms. Owner managers are therefore advised to undertake regular entrepreneurship training in order to upgrade their liquidity and cash management knowledge and practices to enhance their overall performance.

Keywords: liquidity management, owner-managed firm, profitability, survival

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

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The purpose of this study is to investigate risk and real excess portfolio returns using inflation adjusted risk-free rates, a measuring technique that focuses on the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model and use monthly data from 1994 to 2022. With the exception of profitability, the data show that market, size, value, momentum, and investment factors are all strongly associated to excess portfolio stock returns using ordinary lease square regression technique. According to the Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken test, the momentum augmented Fama-French six-factor model outperforms the market. This technique discovery may be utilised by academics and professionals to acquire an in-depth knowledge of the Pakistan Stock Exchange across a broad stock pattern for investing decisions and portfolio construction.

Keywords: real excess portfolio returns, momentum augmented fama & french five-factor model, GRS-test, pakistan stock exchange

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Authors: Serier Bouchenak NORA, Bouguerni ABDELMADJID

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Algeria is a Mediterranean country which provides an ideal habitat for a wide range of species of medicinal plants. The objective of this current work is to extract the gel contained in the leaves of Aloe vera in order to formulate an oral gel as a prebiotic and see its effects on probiotics (lactic and pseudo lactic bacteria and bifido bacterium). Aloe vera polysaccharid extract is a matrix mainly composed of non-digestible oligosaccharids or slow-fermentation polysaccharids, as this produces a lower pH. The behavior of Aloe vera during in vitro fermentation of the colon was similar to that of lactulose, indicating the possibility of using Aloe vera and its polysaccharids extracts as a prebiotic. The microbiological control of the two kinds of bacteria (bifidobacteria and staphylococci) has demonstrated the gel capacity to stimulate them by these bioactive compounds. The generation time of Bifidobacteria in fermented milk with added prebiotic Aloe vera gel is 80.408 min with a µ growth rate equal to 0.012 min -1. The doubling time is 61.459 min with a growth rate µ equal to 0.016 min -1 for the Streptococcus sp. species.

Keywords: aloe vera, probiotics, prebiotics, growth rate, bifidobacteria

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Authors: Kaisy Xinhong Ye, Su Lin Lim, Jialiang Li, Lei Feng

Abstract:

background: Multiple healthful dietary patterns have been linked with dementia, but limited studies have looked at the role of diet in cognitive health in Asians whose eating habits are very different from their counterparts in the west. This study aimed to derive a dietary pattern that is associated with the risk of cognitive impairment (CI) in the Singaporean population. Method: The analysis was based on 719 community older adults aged 60 and above. Dietary intake was measured using a validated semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Reduced rank regression (RRR) was used to extract dietary pattern from 45 food groups, specifying sugar, dietary fiber, vitamin A, calcium, and the ratio of polyunsaturated fat to saturated fat intake (P:S ratio) as response variables. The RRR-derived dietary patterns were subsequently investigated using multivariate logistic regression models to look for associations with the risk of CI. Results: A dietary pattern characterized by greater intakes of green leafy vegetables, red-orange vegetables, wholegrains, tofu, nuts, and lower intakes of biscuits, pastries, local sweets, coffee, poultry with skin, sugar added to beverages, malt beverages, roti, butter, and fast food was associated with reduced risk of CI [multivariable-adjusted OR comparing extreme quintiles, 0.29 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.77); P-trend =0.03]. This pattern was positively correlated with P:S ratio, vitamin A, and dietary fiber and negatively correlated with sugar. Conclusion: A dietary pattern providing high P:S ratio, vitamin A and dietary fiber, and a low level of sugar may reduce the risk of cognitive impairment in old age. The findings have significance in guiding local Singaporeans to dementia prevention through food-based dietary approaches.

Keywords: dementia, cognitive impairment, diet, nutrient, elderly

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Authors: Sami Ali Metwally, Bedour Helmy Abou-Leila, Hussien Ibrahim Abdel-Shafy

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This study was carried out at the pilot plant area in the National Research Centre during the two successive seasons, 2020 and 2022. The aim is to investigate the response of vegetative growth and chemical constituents of sunflowers plants irrigated by two types of wastewater, namely: black wastewater W1 (Bathroom) and grey wastewater W1, under irradiation conditions of helium-neon (He-Ne) laser. The examined data indicated that irrigation of W1 significantly increased the growth and flowering parameters (plant height, leaves number, leaves area, leaves fresh and dry weight, flower diameter, flower stem length, flower stem thickness, number of days to flower, and total chlorophyll). Treated sunflower plants with 0 to 10 min. recorded an increase in the fresh weight and dry weight of leaves. However, the superiority of increasing vase life and delaying flowers were recorded by prolonging exposure time by up to 10 min. Regarding the effect of interaction treatments, the data indicated that the highest values on almost growth parameters were obtained from plants treated with W1+0 laser followed by W2+10 min. laser, compared with all interaction treatments. As for flowering parameters, the interactions between W2+2 min. time exposure, W1+0 time, w1+10 min., and w1+2 min. exposures recorded the highest values on flower diameter, flower stem length, flower stem thickness, vase life, and delaying flowering.

Keywords: greywater, sunflower plant, water reuse, vegetative growth, laser radiation

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Authors: Farah Amalina Mohamed Affandi, Redhwan Ahmad Al-Naggar, Seok Mui Wang, Thanikasalam Kathiresan

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Gestational choriocarcinoma is a condition in which there is an abnormal growth or a tumor inside the women’s uterus after conception. It is a type of gestational trophoblastic disease which is relatively rare and malignant. The current epidemiological data of this disease are inadequate. The purposes of this study are to examine the epidemiology of choriocarcinoma and their risk factors based on all available population-based and hospital-based data of the disease. In this study, we searched The MEDLINE and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases using the keywords ‘choriocarcinoma’, ‘gestational’, ‘gestational choriocarcinoma’ and ‘epidemiology’. We included only human studies published in English between 1995 and 2015 to ensure up to date evidence. Case studies, case reports, animal studies, letters to the editor, news, and review articles were excluded. Retrieved articles were screened in three phases. In the first phase, any articles that did not match the inclusion criteria based solely on titles were excluded. In the second phase, the abstracts of remaining articles were screened thoroughly; any articles that did not meet our inclusion criteria were excluded. In the final phase, full texts of the remaining articles were read and assessed to exclude articles that did not meet the inclusion criteria or any articles that fulfilled the exclusion criteria. Duplicates articles were also removed. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis were excluded. Extracted data were summarized in table and figures descriptively. The reference lists of included studies were thoroughly reviewed in search for other relevant studies. A total of ten studies met all the selection criteria. Nine were retrospective studies and one was cohort study. Total numbers of 4563 cases of choriocarcinoma were reviewed from several countries which are Korea, Japan, South Africa, USA, New Mexico, Finland, Turkey, China, Brazil and The Netherlands. Different studies included different range of age with their mean age of 28.5 to 30.0 years. All studies investigated on the disease’s incidence rate, only two studies examined on the risk factors or associations of the disease. Approximately 20% of the studies showed a reduction in the incidence of choriocarcinoma while the other 80% showed inconsistencies in rate. Associations of age, fertility age, occupations and socio-demographic with the status remains unclear. There is limited information on the epidemiological aspects of gestational choriocarcinoma. The observed results indicated there was a decrease in the incidence rate of gestational choriocarcinoma globally. These could be due to the reduction in the incidence of molar pregnancy and the efficacy of the treatment, mainly by chemotherapy.

Keywords: epidemiology, gestational choriocarcinoma, incidence, prevalence, risk factor

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