Search results for: utility seekers

Authors: Jonathan Iworiso

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Forecasting the equity premium out-of-sample is a major concern to researchers in finance and emerging markets. The quest for a superior model that can forecast the equity premium with significant economic gains has resulted in several controversies on the choice of variables and suitable techniques among scholars. This research focuses mainly on the application of Regression Training (RT) techniques to forecast monthly equity premium out-of-sample recursively with an expanding window method. A broad category of sophisticated regression models involving model complexity was employed. The RT models include Ridge, Forward-Backward (FOBA) Ridge, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Relaxed LASSO, Elastic Net, and Least Angle Regression were trained and used to forecast the equity premium out-of-sample. In this study, the empirical investigation of the RT models demonstrates significant evidence of equity premium predictability both statistically and economically relative to the benchmark historical average, delivering significant utility gains. They seek to provide meaningful economic information on mean-variance portfolio investment for investors who are timing the market to earn future gains at minimal risk. Thus, the forecasting models appeared to guarantee an investor in a market setting who optimally reallocates a monthly portfolio between equities and risk-free treasury bills using equity premium forecasts at minimal risk.

Keywords: regression training, out-of-sample forecasts, expanding window, statistical predictability, economic significance, utility gains

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Authors: Alexandra Shipley

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Background: Undergraduate paediatric teaching must overcome two major challenges: 1) balancing patient safety with active student engagement and 2) exposing students to a comprehensive range of pathologies within a relatively short clinical placement. Whilst lectures and shadowing on paediatric wards constitute the mainstay of learning, Simulation and Virtual Reality (VR) are emerging as effective teaching tools, which - immune to the unpredictability and seasonal variation of hospital presentations - could expose students to the entire syllabus more reliably, efficiently, and independently. We aim to evaluate the potential utility of Simulation and VR in addressing gaps within the traditional paediatric curriculum from the perspective of medical students. Summary of Work: Exposure to and perceived utility of various learning opportunities within the Paediatric and Emergency Medicine courses were assessed through a questionnaire completed by 5th year medical students (n=23). Summary of Results: Students reported limited exposure to several common acute paediatric presentations, such as bronchiolitis (41%), croup (32%) or pneumonia (14%), and to clinical emergencies, including cardiac/respiratory arrests or trauma calls (27%). Across all conditions, average self-reported confidence in assessment and management to the level expected of an FY1 is greater amongst those who observed at least one case (e.g. 7.6/10 compared with 3.6/10 for croup). Students rated exposure through Simulation or VR to be of similar utility to witnessing a clinical scenario on the ward. In free text responses, students unanimously favoured being ‘challenged’ through ‘hands-on’ patient interaction over passive shadowing, where it is ‘easy to zone out.’ In recognition of the fact that such independence is only appropriate in certain clinical situations, many students reported wanting more Simulation and VR teaching. Importantly, students raised the necessity of ‘proper debriefs’ after these sessions to maximise educational value. Discussion and Conclusion: Our questionnaire elicited several student-perceived challenges in paediatric education, including incomplete exposure to common pathologies and limited opportunities for active involvement in patient care. Indeed, these experiences seem to be important predictors of confidence. Quantitative and qualitative feedback suggests that VR and Simulation satisfy students’ self-reported appetite for independent engagement with authentic clinical scenarios. Take-aways: Our findings endorse further development of VR and Simulation as high-yield adjuncts to paediatric education.

Keywords: paediatric emergency education, simulation, virtual reality, medical education

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Authors: Mojtaba Mahmoodian, Joshua Phelan, Mehdi Shahparvari

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With a large percentage of countries’ total infrastructure expenditure attributed to water network maintenance, it is essential to optimise maintenance strategies to rehabilitate or replace underground pipes before failure occurs. The aim of this paper is to provide water utility managers with a maintenance management approach for underground water pipes, subject to external loading and material corrosion, to give the lowest life cycle cost over a predetermined time period. This reliability-based maintenance management methodology details the optimal years for intervention, the ideal number of maintenance activities to perform before replacement and specifies feasible renewal options and intervention prioritisation to minimise the life cycle cost. The study was then extended to include feasible renewal methods by determining the structural condition index and potential for soil loss, then obtaining the failure impact rating to assist in prioritising pipe replacement. A case study on optimisation of maintenance plans for the Melbourne water pipe network is considered in this paper to evaluate the practicality of the proposed methodology. The results confirm that the suggested methodology can provide water utility managers with a reliable systematic approach to determining optimum maintenance plans for pipe networks.

Keywords: water pipe networks, maintenance management, reliability analysis, optimum maintenance plan

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Authors: Shishir Lamichhane, Saurav Dulal, Bibek Gautam, Madan Thapa Magar, Indraman Tamrakar

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Renewable energies such as wind turbines and solar photovoltaic have gained significance as a result of global environmental pollution and energy crises. These sources of energy are converted into electrical energy and delivered to end-users through the utility system. As a result of the widespread use of power electronics-based grid-interfacing technologies to accommodate renewable sources of energy, the prevalence of converters has expanded as well. As a result, the power system's rotating inertia is decreasing, endangering the utility grid's stability. The use of Virtual Synchronous Machine (VSM) technology has been proposed to overcome the grid stability problem due to low rotating inertia. The grid-connected inverter used in VSM can be controlled to emulate inertia, which replicates the external features of a synchronous generator. As a result, the rotating inertia is increased to support the power system's stability. A power angle control strategy is proposed in this paper and its model is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink to study the effects of parameter disturbances on the active power and frequency for a VSM. The system consists of a synchronous generator, which is modeled in such a way that the frequency drops to an unacceptable region during transient conditions due to a lack of inertia when VSM is not used. Then, the suggested model incorporating VSM emulates rotating inertia, injecting a controllable amount of energy into the grid during frequency transients to enhance transient stability.

Keywords: damping constant, inertia–constant, ROCOF, transient stability, distributed sources

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Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

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Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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Authors: Aziz Rezapour, Abdosaleh Jafari, Marziye Hadian, Elaheh Mazaheri

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Introduction: Cardiac rehabilitation is an accurate educational and sporting program designed to help heart patients to increase their physical activities and reduce the risk factors that make their health worse and help to a healthier lifestyle so that they can return to their families and society with a better spirit. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiac rehabilitation programs for patients with cardiovascular diseases. Methods: In the present review study, published articles related to cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of cardiac rehabilitation programs for patients with cardiovascular diseases within the time interval between 2004 and 2019 were searched using electronic databases. The methodological quality of the structure of articles was examined by Drummond’s standard checklist. Results: The results of reviewing studies showed that most of the studies related to the economic evaluation of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular disease were flawed in Drummond’s criteria, and only one study adhered to Drummond’s criteria. The results of the present study indicated use of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular disease was cost-effective. Conclusion: The results of this review study showed that although the results of the studies were different in terms of a number of aspects, such as the study perspective, the time horizons, and the costs of rehabilitation programs, they achieved a similar conclusion, they concluded that the use of cardiac rehabilitation programs in patients with cardiovascular diseases, leading to higher quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and lower costs.

Keywords: economic evaluation, systematic review, cardiac rehabilitation, Drummond’s checklist

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Authors: Arnon Medzini, Lilach Lev Ari

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Migration, the driving force behind increased urbanization, has made cities much more diverse places to live in. Nearly one-fifth of all migrants live in the world’s 20 largest cities. In many of these global cities, migrants constitute over a third of the population. Many of contemporary migrants are in fact ‘forced migrants,’ pushed from their countries of origin due to political or ethnic violence and persecution or natural disasters. During the past decade, massive numbers of labor migrants and asylum seekers have migrated from African countries to Israel via Egypt. Their motives for leaving their countries of origin include ongoing and bloody wars in the African continent as well as corruption, severe conditions of poverty and hunger, and economic and political disintegration. Most of the African migrants came to Israel from Eritrea and Sudan as they saw Israel the closest natural geographic asylum to Africa; soon they found their way to the metropolitan Tel-Aviv area. There they concentrated in poor neighborhoods located in the southern part of the city, where they live under conditions of crowding, poverty, and poor sanitation. Today around 45,000 African migrants reside in these neighborhoods, and yet there is no legal option for expelling them due to dangers they might face upon returning to their native lands. Migration of such magnitude to the weakened neighborhoods of south Tel-Aviv can lead to the destruction of physical, social and human infrastructures. The character of the neighborhoods is changing, and the local population is the main victim. These local residents must bear the brunt of the failure of both authorities and the government to handle the illegal inhabitants. The extremely crowded living conditions place a heavy burden on the dilapidated infrastructures in the weakened areas where the refugees live and increase the distress of the veteran residents of the neighborhoods. Some problems are economic and some stem from damage to the services the residents are entitled to, others from a drastic decline in their standard of living. Even the public parks no longer serve the purpose for which they were originally established—the well-being of the public and the neighborhood residents; they have become the main gathering place for the infiltrators and a center of crime and violence. Based on secondary data analysis (for example: The Israel’s Population, Immigration and Border Authority, the hotline for refugees and migrants), the objective of this presentation is to discuss the effects of forced migration to Tel Aviv on the following tensions: between the local population and the immigrants; between the local population and the state authorities, and between human rights groups vis-a-vis nationalist local organizations. We will also describe the changes which have taken place in the urban infrastructure of the city of Tel Aviv, and discuss the efficacy of various Israeli strategic trajectories when handling human problems arising in the marginal urban regions where the forced migrant population is concentrated.

Keywords: African asylum seekers, forced migrants, marginal urban regions, urban infrastructure

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Authors: Dina Tareq Ismail, Alexandria A. Proff

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is a nation seeking to advance in all fields, particularly education. One area of focus for UAE 2021 agenda is to restructure UAE schools and universities by equipping them with highly developed technology. The agenda also advises educational institutions to prepare students with applicable and transferrable Information and Communication Technology (ICT) skills. Despite the emphasis on ICT and computer literacy skills, there exists limited empirical data on the use of M-Learning in the literature. This qualitative study explores the motivation of higher primary Arabic teachers in private schools toward implementing and integrating M-Learning apps in their classrooms. This research employs a phenomenological approach through the use of semistructured interviews with nine purposefully selected Arabic teachers. The data were analyzed using a content analysis via multiple stages of coding: open, axial, and thematic. Findings reveal three primary themes: (1) Arabic teachers with high levels of procedural knowledge in ICT are more motivated to implement M-Learning; (2) Arabic teachers' perceptions of self-efficacy influence their motivation toward implementation of M-Learning; (3) Arabic teachers implement M-Learning when they possess high utility and/or intrinsic value in these applications. These findings indicate a strong need for further training, equipping, and creating buy-in among Arabic teachers to enhance their ICT skills in implementing M-Learning. Further, given the limited availability of M-Learning apps designed for use in the Arabic language on the market, it is imperative that developers consider designing M-Learning tools that Arabic teachers, and Arabic-speaking students, can use and access more readily. This study contributes to closing the knowledge gap on teacher-motivation for implementing M-Learning in their classrooms in the UAE.

Keywords: ICT skills, m-learning, self-efficacy, teacher-motivation

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Authors: Francis Zerd, Brian E. Moore, Atuganile E. Malango, Patrick W. Hosokawa, Kevin O. Lillehei, Laurence Lemery Mchome, D. Ryan Ormond

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Introduction: Since neuropathologic diagnosis in the developing world is hampered by limitations in technical infrastructure, trained laboratory personnel, and subspecialty-trained pathologists, the use of telepathology for diagnostic support, second-opinion consultations, and ongoing training holds promise as a means of addressing these challenges. This research aims to assess the utility of static teleneuropathology in improving neuropathologic diagnoses in low- and middle-income countries. Methods: Consecutive neurosurgical biopsy and resection specimens obtained at Muhimbili National Hospital in Tanzania between July 1, 2018, and June 30, 2019, were selected for retrospective, blinded static-image neuropathologic review followed by on-site review by an expert neuropathologist. Results: A total of 75 neuropathologic cases were reviewed. The agreement of static images and on-site glass diagnosis was 71% with strict criteria and 88% with less stringent criteria. This represents an overall improvement in diagnostic accuracy from 36% by general pathologists to 71% by a neuropathologist using static telepathology (or 76% to 88% with less stringent criteria). Conclusions: Telepathology offers a suitable means of providing diagnostic support, second-opinion consultations, and ongoing training to pathologists practicing in resource-limited countries. Moreover, static digital teleneuropathology is an uncomplicated, cost-effective, and reliable way to achieve these goals.

Keywords: neuropathology, resource-limited settings, static image, Tanzania, teleneuropathology

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Authors: Jang kyun Cho, Jeong-dong Lee

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The advent of the Internet, mobile communications, and social network services has stimulated social interactions among consumers, allowing people to affect one another’s innovation adoptions by exchanging information more frequently and more quickly. Previous diffusion models, such as the Bass model, however, face limitations in reflecting such recent phenomena in society. These models are weak in their ability to model interactions between agents; they model aggregated-level behaviors only. The agent based model, which is an alternative to the aggregate model, is good for individual modeling, but it is still not based on an economic perspective of social interactions so far. This study assumes the presence of social utility from other consumers in the adoption of innovation and investigates the effect of individual interactions on innovation diffusion by developing a new model called the interaction-based diffusion model. By comparing this model with previous diffusion models, the study also examines how the proposed model explains innovation diffusion from the perspective of economics. In addition, the study recommends the use of a small-world network topology instead of cellular automata to describe innovation diffusion. This study develops a model based on individual preference and heterogeneous social interactions using utility specification, which is expandable and, thus, able to encompass various issues in diffusion research, such as reservation price. Furthermore, the study proposes a new framework to forecast aggregated-level market demand from individual level modeling. The model also exhibits a good fit to real market data. It is expected that the study will contribute to our understanding of the innovation diffusion process through its microeconomic theoretical approach.

Keywords: innovation diffusion, agent based model, small-world network, demand forecasting

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Authors: Christian Bruss, Simona Gamba, Davide Azzolini, Federico Podestà

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In this paper, the authors assess the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the size and on the age and gender composition of asylum-related migration flows to Europe. With this paper, the authors contribute to the literature by looking at the impact of different political and environmental shocks on the gender and age composition of migration flows in addition to the size of these flows. Conflicting theories predict different outcomes concerning the relationship between political and environmental shocks and the migration flows composition. Analyzing the relationship between the causes of migration and the composition of migration flows could yield more insights into the mechanisms behind migration decisions. In addition, this research may contribute to better informing national authorities in charge of receiving these migrant, as women and children/the elderly require different assistance than young men. To be prepared to offer the correct services, the relevant institutions have to be aware of changes in composition based on the shock in question. The authors analyze the effect of different types of shocks on the number, the gender and age composition of first time asylum seekers originating from 154 sending countries. Among the political shocks, the authors consider: violence between combatants, violence against civilians, infringement of political rights and civil liberties, and state terror. Concerning environmental shocks, natural disasters (such as droughts, floods, epidemics, etc.) have been included. The data on asylum seekers applying to any of the 32 Schengen Area countries between 2008 and 2015 is on a monthly basis. Data on asylum applications come from Eurostat, data on shocks are retrieved from various sources: georeferenced conflict data come from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), data on natural disasters from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), data on civil liberties and political rights from Freedom House, data on state terror from the Political Terror Scale (PTS), GDP and population data from the World Bank, and georeferenced population data from the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The authors adopt a Difference-in-Differences identification strategy, exploiting the different timing of several kinds of shocks across countries. The highly skewed distribution of the dependent variable is taken into account by using count data models. In particular, a Zero Inflated Negative Binomial model is adopted. Preliminary results show that different shocks - such as armed conflict and epidemics - exert weak immediate effects on asylum-related migration flows and almost non-existent effects on the gender and age composition. However, this result is certainly affected by the fact that no time lags have been introduced so far. Finding the correct time lags depends on a great many variables not limited to distance alone. Therefore, finding the appropriate time lags is still a work in progress. Considering the ongoing refugee crisis, this topic is more important than ever. The authors hope that this research contributes to a less emotionally led debate.

Keywords: age, asylum, Europe, forced migration, gender

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Authors: K. P. Farsana

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Each and every community has its own way of understanding on health and illness; it varies from culture to culture. According to the Mappila Muslims of Malappuram, the state of pain, distress, and misery is understood as an affliction to their health. They believe that most of the afflictions are due to the Jinn/ Shaitanic Possession. So they prefer religious healers than the other systems of medicine for their treatments. Thangals are the endogamous community in Kerala, of Yemeni heritage who claim direct descent from the Prophet Mohammed’s family. Because of their sacrosanct status, many Thangals works as religious healers in Northern Kerala. Using the case of one Thangal healer as the illustration of the many religious healers in Kerala who engage in the healing practices, it is intended, in this paper to illustrate the patterns of afflictions among Mappila Muslims of Malappuram. Based on the analysis of this Thangal’s healing practice in the local context of Northern Kerala, the researcher further discusses the modes of treatment which they are providing to care seekers.

Keywords: affliction, religious healing, faith, Mappila Muslims, Jinn/Shaitanic possession

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Authors: Loris Franchi, Daniele Calvi, Sabrina Corpino

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This paper presents a design methodology in which stakeholders are assisted with the exploration of a so-called negotiation space, aiming to the maximization of both group social welfare and single stakeholder’s perceived utility. The outcome results in less design iterations needed for design convergence while obtaining a higher solution effectiveness. During the early stage of a space project, not only the knowledge about the system but also the decision outcomes often are unknown. The scenario is exacerbated by the fact that decisions taken in this stage imply delayed costs associated with them. Hence, it is necessary to have a clear definition of the problem under analysis, especially in the initial definition. This can be obtained thanks to a robust generation and exploration of design alternatives. This process must consider that design usually involves various individuals, who take decisions affecting one another. An effective coordination among these decision-makers is critical. Finding mutual agreement solution will reduce the iterations involved in the design process. To handle this scenario, the paper proposes a design methodology which, aims to speed-up the process of pushing the mission’s concept maturity level. This push up is obtained thanks to a guided negotiation space exploration, which involves autonomously exploration and optimization of trade opportunities among stakeholders via Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The negotiation space is generated via a multidisciplinary collaborative optimization method, infused by game theory and multi-attribute utility theory. In particular, game theory is able to model the negotiation process to reach the equilibria among stakeholder needs. Because of the huge dimension of the negotiation space, a collaborative optimization framework with evolutionary algorithm has been integrated in order to guide the game process to efficiently and rapidly searching for the Pareto equilibria among stakeholders. At last, the concept of utility constituted the mechanism to bridge the language barrier between experts of different backgrounds and differing needs, using the elicited and modeled needs to evaluate a multitude of alternatives. To highlight the benefits of the proposed methodology, the paper presents the design of a CubeSat mission for the observation of lunar radiation environment. The derived solution results able to balance all stakeholders needs and guaranteeing the effectiveness of the selection mission concept thanks to its robustness in valuable changeability. The benefits provided by the proposed design methodology are highlighted, and further development proposed.

Keywords: concurrent engineering, artificial intelligence, negotiation in engineering design, multidisciplinary optimization

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Authors: Ali E. Abbas

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This paper highlights some of the normative issues that might result by setting independent thresholds in risk analyses and particularly with safety regions. A second objective is to explain how such regions can be specified appropriately in a meaningful way. We start with a review of the importance of setting deterministic trade-offs among target requirements. We then show how to determine safety regions for risk analysis appropriately using utility functions.

Keywords: decision analysis, thresholds, risk, reliability

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Authors: Stephanie M. De Oliveira

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For a long time, migrations are characterized as a difficult problem to solve. Various phenomena throughout human history caused personnel migrations, whether by the free will of migrants or not. Nowadays, governments that seek to give these people protection and dignity, either to asylum or to build a new life in a different country, make refugee protection. At present, a large amount of people, have been crossing their country's borders by land, air or sea, becoming refugees and seeking a new life away from fear, threat or violence they suffered in their country of origin. It is known that some countries have already instituted rights and rules for refugees who wish to become citizens in the country to which they immigrated, even though this is not what happens in most cases. The article will be based on research made with UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) material as well as will analyze the interaction of the Turkish government with the European Union. Since Turkey is not part of the Union, it will be understood how the interaction was made, as well as the search for consensus, and not only humanitarian but also financial aid. The treatment of refugees and the defense of human rights within the country will also be considered.

Keywords: refugees, Turkey, asylum seekers, United Nations

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Authors: Amandeep Kaur, N. S. Atri, Munruchi Kaur

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Herbivorous dung is a special substrate for the growth of fungi. Fungi growing thereon are known as coprophilous. These fungi are amongst the most abundant taxa in the ecosystem, which regulate the decomposition of dung organic matter, nutrient dynamics and maintenance of ecological balance on the earth. The coprophilous fungi represent a diverse group of saprobes, including taxa from most major fungal groups belonging to Zygomycota, Ascomycota and Basidiomycota. The present work, however, has been focused on the basidiomycetous coprophilous mushrooms belonging to the order Agaricales. The research work includes the results of eco-taxonomic studies of coprophilous mushrooms in Punjab, India, on the basis of a survey of dung localities of the state. The mushrooms were collected growing as saprobes on dung of various domesticated and wild herbivorous animals in pastures, grasslands, zoos, and on dung heaps in villages, etc. The present study observed the frequency of distribution of coprophilous mushrooms in different taxonomic categories in different regions of the state in various seasons on different dung types along with their growing habit. The paper also discusses their economic utility as edible, inedible, poisonous, medicinal and hallucinogenic species. The study has shown that animal dung is a good niche for the growth of mushrooms. However, the natural habitats with dung deposits are getting destroyed because of different developmental activities. Livestock in agriculture-based societies like Punjab state in India should be managed in a manner that favors their grazing in the wild places and thereby the growth of coprophilous mushrooms so that a significant role in ecological balance on the earth is established.

Keywords: herbivorous dung, psychoactive, seasonal availability, taxo-ecology

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Authors: May Bazzi, Shafik Tokmaj, Younes Saberi, Mats Geijer, Tony Jurkiewicz, Patrik Sund, Anna Bjällmark

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Mobile radiography, employing portable X-ray equipment, has become a routine procedure within hospital settings, with chest X-rays in intensive care units standing out as the most prevalent mobile X-ray examinations. This approach is not limited to hospitals alone, as it extends its benefits to imaging patients in various settings, particularly those too frail to be transported, such as elderly care residents in nursing homes. Moreover, the utility of mobile X-ray isn't confined solely to traditional healthcare recipients; it has proven to be a valuable resource for vulnerable populations, including the homeless, drug users, asylum seekers, and patients with multiple co-morbidities. Mobile X-rays reduce patient stress, minimize costly hospitalizations, and offer cost-effective imaging. While studies confirm its reliability, further research is needed, especially regarding image quality. Recent advancements in lightweight equipment with enhanced battery and detector technology provide the potential for nearly handheld radiography. The main aim of this study was to evaluate a new lightweight mobile X-ray system with two different detectors and compare the image quality with a modern stationary system. Methods: A total of 74 images of the chest (chest anterior-posterior (AP) views and chest lateral views) and pelvic/hip region (AP pelvis views, hip AP views, and hip cross-table lateral views) were acquired on a whole-body phantom (Kyotokagaku, Japan), utilizing varying image parameters. These images were obtained using a stationary system - 18 images (Mediel, Sweden), a mobile X-ray system with a second-generation detector - 28 images (FDR D-EVO II; Fujifilm, Japan) and a mobile X-ray system with a third-generation detector - 28 images (FDR D-EVO III; Fujifilm, Japan). Image quality was assessed by visual grading analysis (VGA), which is a method to measure image quality by assessing the visibility and accurate reproduction of anatomical structures within the images. A total of 33 image criteria were used in the analysis. A panel of two experienced radiologists, two experienced radiographers, and two final-term radiographer students evaluated the image quality on a 5-grade ordinal scale using the software Viewdex 3.0 (Viewer for Digital Evaluation of X-ray images, Sweden). Data were analyzed using visual grading characteristics analysis. The dose was measured by the dose-area product (DAP) reported by the respective systems. Results: The mobile X-ray equipment (both detectors) showed significantly better image quality than the stationary equipment for the pelvis, hip AP and hip cross-table lateral images with AUCVGA-values ranging from 0.64-0.92, while chest images showed mixed results. The number of images rated as having sufficient quality for diagnostic use was significantly higher for mobile X-ray generation 2 and 3 compared with the stationary X-ray system. The DAP values were higher for the stationary compared to the mobile system. Conclusions: The new lightweight radiographic equipment had an image quality at least as good as a fixed system at a lower radiation dose. Future studies should focus on clinical images and consider radiographers' viewpoints for a comprehensive assessment.

Keywords: mobile x-ray, visual grading analysis, radiographer, radiation dose

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Authors: Hyun-jin Kim, Gumgyung Gu, Dae-Hyun Ko, Woochang Lee, Sail Chun, Won-Ki Min

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Background: Ovarian carcinoma is the fourth most common cause of cancer-related death in women worldwide. HE4, a novel marker for ovarian cancer could be used for monitoring recurrence or progression of disease in patients with invasive epithelial ovarian carcinoma. It is further intended to be used in conjunction with CA 125 to estimate the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in women presenting with an adnexal mass. In this study, we aim to evaluate the analytical performance and clinical utility of HE4 assay using Architect i 2000SR(Abbott Diagnostics, USA). Methods: The precision was evaluated according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute(CLSI) EP5 guideline. Three levels of control materials were analyzed twice a day in duplicate manner over 20 days. We calculated within run and total coefficient of variation (CV) at each level of control materials. The linearity was evaluated based on CLSI EP6 guideline. Five levels of calibrator were prepared by mixing high and low level of calibrators. For 43 women with adnexal masses, HE4 and CA 125 were measured and Risk of ovarian malignancy (ROMA) scores were calculated. The patients’ medical records were reviewed to determine the clinical utility of HE4 and ROMA score. Results: In a precision study, the within-run and total CV were 2.0 % and 2.3% for low level of control material, 1.9% and 2.4% for medium level and 0.5 % and 1.1% for high level, respectively. The linear range of HE4 was 14.63 to 1475.15pmol/L. Of the 43 patients, two patients in pre-menopausal group showed the ROMA score above the cut-off level (7.3%). One of them showed CA 125 level within the reference range, while the HE4 was higher than the cut-off. Conclusion: The overall analytical performance of HE4 assay using Architect showed high precision and good linearity within clinically important range. HE4 could be an useful marker for managing patients with adnexal masses.

Keywords: HE4, CA125, ROMA, evaluation, performance

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Authors: Khalil Ahmad Kakar

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In developing countries increasing the automobile and low capacity public transport (para-transit) which are creating congestion, pollution, noise, and traffic accident are the most critical quandary. These issues are under the analysis of assessors to break down the puzzle and propose sustainable urban public transport system. Kabul city is one of those urban areas that the inhabitants are suffering from lack of tolerable and friendly public transport system. The city is the most-populous and overcrowded with around 4.5 million population. The para-transit is the only dominant public transit system with a very poor level of services and low capacity vehicles (6-20 passengers). Therefore, this study after detailed investigations suggests bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Kabul City. It is aimed to mitigate the role of informal transport and decreases congestion. The research covers three parts. In the first part, aggregated travel demand modelling (four-step) is applied to determine the number of users for para-transit and assesses BRT network based on higher passenger demand for public transport mode. In the second part, state preference (SP) survey and binary logit model are exerted to figure out the utility of existing para-transit mode and planned BRT system. Finally, the impact of predicted BRT system on para-transit is evaluated. The extracted outcome based on high travel demand suggests 10 km network for the proposed BRT system, which is originated from the district tenth and it is ended at Kabul International Airport. As well as, the result from the disaggregate travel mode-choice model, based on SP and logit model indicates that the predicted mass rapid transit system has higher utility with the significant impact regarding the reduction of para-transit.

Keywords: BRT, para-transit, travel demand modelling, Kabul City, logit model

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Authors: Loizos A. Hadjivasiliou, May Chehab

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Confronted with the human tragedy unfolding in the Mediterranean during the 2011-2016 period, the European Union introduced for the first time the “hotspot approach”, the establishment of facilities for initial reception, identification registration, and fingerprinting of asylum seekers and migrants arriving in the EU by sea, at the frontline Member States. However, the lack of a comprehensive collective policy on migration management and border security left the Mediterranean Member States, mainly Italy, Greece, and Cyprus, struggling to overcome these challenges. The current study sheds light on the implementation of the hotspot approach as the frontispiece of the European response to the migration challenges, which, limited to the operational and financial support of the hosting member states, leads to heterogeneous burden-sharing. Within this framework, it highlights the fact that the implementation of the hotspots as a panacea carries the risk of transforming the Mediterranean member states into giant hotspots with unpredictable consequences for the future of the Schengen area.

Keywords: asylum, burden sharing, hotspots, migration management policy, Schengen area

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Authors: Atefeh Abedini, Fatemeh Razavi, Mihan Pourabdollah Toutkaboni, Hossein Mehravaran, Arda Kiani

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In countries with the highest prevalence of tuberculosis, such as Iran, the differentiation of malignant tumors from non-malignant is very important. In this study, which was conducted for the first time among the Iranian population, the utility of the ultrasonographic morphological characteristics in patients undergoing EBUS was used to distinguish the non-malignant versus malignant lymph nodes. The morphological characteristics of lymph nodes, which consist of size, shape, vascular pattern, echogenicity, margin, coagulation necrosis sign, calcification, and central hilar structure, were obtained during Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration and were compared with the final pathology results. During this study period, a total of 253 lymph nodes were evaluated in 93 cases. Round shape, non-hilar vascular pattern, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, distinct margin, and the presence of necrosis sign were significantly higher in malignant nodes. On the other hand, the presence of calcification and also central hilar structure were significantly higher in the benign nodes (p-value ˂ 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression showed that size>1 cm, heterogeneous echogenicity, hyperechogenicity, the presence of necrosis signs and, the absence of central hilar structure are independent predictive factors for malignancy. The accuracy of each of the aforementioned factors is 42.29 %, 71.54 %, 71.90 %, 73.51 %, and 65.61 %, respectively. Of 74 malignant lymph nodes, 100% had at least one of these independent factors. According to our results, the morphological characteristics of lymph nodes based on Endobronchial Ultrasound-Guided Trans-Bronchial Needle Aspiration can play a role in the prediction of malignancy.

Keywords: EBUS-TBNA, malignancy, nodal characteristics, pathology

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Authors: Alokananda Ghosh, Shraban Sarkar

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The study aims to identify suitable sites for new hospitals with critical obstetric care facilities in Birbhum, one of the vulnerable and underserved districts of Eastern India, considering six main and 14 sub-criteria, using GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) approach. The criteria were identified through field surveys and previous literature. After collecting expert decisions, a pairwise comparison matrix was prepared using the Saaty scale to calculate the weights through AHP. On the contrary, objective weighting methods, i.e., Entropy and Criteria Importance through Interaction Correlation (CRITIC), were used to perform the MAUT. Finally, suitability maps were prepared by weighted sum analysis. Sensitivity analyses of AHP were performed to explore the effect of dominant criteria. Results from AHP reveal that ‘maternal death in transit’ followed by ‘accessibility and connectivity’, ‘maternal health care service (MHCS) coverage gap’ were three important criteria with comparatively higher weighted values. Whereas ‘accessibility and connectivity’ and ‘maternal death in transit’ were observed to have more imprint in entropy and CRITIC, respectively. While comparing the predictive suitable classes of these three models with the layer of existing hospitals, except Entropy-MAUT, the other two are pointing towards the left-over underserved areas of existing facilities. Only 43%-67% of existing hospitals were in the moderate to lower suitable class. Therefore, the results of the predictive models might bring valuable input in future planning.

Keywords: hospital site suitability, analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, entropy, criteria importance through interaction correlation, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Mohammadi, Layegheh Daliri

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Introduction: Leishmaniasis occurs in infectious diseases of Leishmania protozoa in Afghanistan, anthroponotic leishmaniasis and common cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). Anthroponotic skin leishmania tropica may cause urban diseases and transmitted by Phlebotomus Sergenti. In different parts of Afghanistan, different species of Leishmania are observed. We report the epidemiological characteristics of prevention and treatment in this study. Methods: This study examines the epidemiology and prevention of religious diseases in Afghanistan. Knowledge gaps were analyzed and collected with our own data. Results: In Afghanistan, most of the Lishmania Tropic seekers are Four species of Leishmania in northern Afghanistan, including Leishmania Tropica, L. Major and L. Donovani, cause skin lesions, but L. Donovani and L. infantum are visible. Even combined prevention can significantly reduce the amount of infection. Conclusion: Skinny, as well as visceral leishmaniasis, can occur among the returnees from Afghanistan. Unusual and poor skin lesions can be created by L. Donovani. In most pathogenic areas, the transmission of common diseases between humans and animals. Home dogs are the main reservoir, transferring in some areas such as India and Sudan.

Keywords: leishmania donovani, leishmania tropica, treatment, disease, epidemiology

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Authors: Mohsen Yaghmoor, Sima Radmanesh, Ameneh Gholami

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Cities are the principal ground for manifestation of an information society. To create an entrepreneurial city, it is required that just and equal access to opportunities are provided for all segments of the city and technologies are intelligently employed. Furthermore, it is necessary for us to be electronically ready in all political, economic, social, cultural, and technological aspects. Also e-city creates enormous potentials and opportunities for development of the entrepreneurial city. After improvement of e-readiness for establishment of entrepreneurial e-city, potentials, and capitals of the city become productive and more suitable opportunities are offered to citizens, state sectors, and private sectors in order to become entrepreneurs. To create and develop an entrepreneurial city, we need to have readiness to detection and creation of entrepreneurial opportunities and finally exploitation of these opportunities which, in turn, lead to use of entrepreneurial events and their quality in the city. In this model, the quality of entrepreneurial events, the productivity of activities, the necessity of reducing the digital gap, positive and active attendance in information society and compatibility and aligning with the global society are emphasized. In an entrepreneurial city, citizens are not help seekers, private sector is not passive, and the government is entrepreneurial.

Keywords: e-city, e-readiness, entrepreneurial city, entrepreneurial events, technological entrepreneurship

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Authors: A. Al Hajeri, M. E. Minton, B. Haskins, F. H. Cummins

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The pre-hospital endotracheal intubation is fraught with difficulties; one solution offered has been video laryngoscopy (VL) which permits better visualization of the glottis than the standard method of direct laryngoscopy (DL). This method has resulted in a higher first attempt success rate and fewer failed intubations. However, VL has mainly been evaluated by experienced providers (experienced anesthetists), and as such the utility of this device for those whom infrequently intubate has not been thoroughly assessed. We sought to evaluate this equipment to determine whether in the hands of novice providers this equipment could prove an effective airway management adjunct. DL and two VL methods (C-Mac with distal screen/C-Mac with attached screen) were evaluated by simulating practice on a Laerdal airway management trainer manikin. Twenty Emergency Medical Technicians (basics) were recruited as novice practitioners. This group was used to eliminate bias, as these clinicians had no pre-hospital experience of intubation (although they did have basic airway skills). The following areas were assessed: Time taken to intubate, number of attempts required to successfully intubate, ease of use of equipment VL (attached screen) took on average longer for novice clinicians to successfully intubate and had a lower success rate and reported higher rating of difficulty compared to DL. However, VL (with distal screen) and DL were comparable on intubation times, success rate, gastric inflation rate and rating of difficulty by the user. This study highlights the routine use of VL by inexperienced clinicians would be of no added benefit over DL. Further studies are required to determine whether Emergency Medical Technicians (Paramedics) would benefit from this airway adjunct, and ascertain whether after initial mastery of VL (with a distal screen), lower intubation times and difficulty rating may be achievable.

Keywords: direct laryngoscopy, endotracheal intubation, pre-hospital, video laryngoscopy

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Authors: Chung Danbi, Linton Oliver, Whang Yoon-Jae

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Supermodularity, or complementarity, is a popular concept in economics which can characterize many objective functions such as utility, social welfare, and production functions. Further, supermodular dominance captures a preference for greater interdependence among inputs of those functions, and it can be applied to examine which input set would produce higher expected utility, social welfare, or production. Therefore, we propose and justify a consistent testing for a useful implication of supermodular dominance. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to explore the finite sample performance of our test, with critical values obtained from the recentered bootstrap method, with and without the selective recentering, and the subsampling method. Under various parameter settings, we confirmed that our test has reasonably good size and power performance. Finally, we apply our test to compare the geographic and distant knowledge spillover in terms of their effects on social welfare using the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) patent data. We expect localized citing to supermodularly dominate distant citing if the geographic knowledge spillover engenders greater social welfare than distant knowledge spillover. Taking subgroups based on firm and patent characteristics, we found that there is industry-wise and patent subclass-wise difference in the pattern of supermodular dominance between localized and distant citing. We also compare the results from analyzing different time periods to see if the development of Internet and communication technology has changed the pattern of the dominance. In addition, to appropriately deal with the sparse nature of the data, we apply high-dimensional methods to efficiently select relevant data.

Keywords: supermodularity, supermodular dominance, stochastic dominance, Monte Carlo simulation, bootstrap, subsampling

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Authors: Victor Birikorang Danquah

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Ghana's primary energy supply is heavily reliant on petroleum, biomass, and hydropower. Currently, Ghana gets its energy from hydropower (Akosombo and Bui), thermal power plants powered by crude oil, natural gas, and diesel, solar power, and imports from La Cote d'Ivoire. Until the early 2000s, large hydroelectric dams dominated Ghana's electricity generation. Due to unreliable weather patterns, Ghana increased its reliance on thermal power. However, thermal power contributes the highest percentage in terms of electricity generation in Ghana and is predominantly supplied by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Ghana's electricity industry operates the corporate utility model as its business model. This model is typically' vertically integrated,' with a single corporation selling the majority of power generated by its generation assets to its retail business, which then sells the electricity to retail market consumers. The corporate utility model has a straightforward value proposition that is based on increasing the number of energy units sold. The unit volume business model drives the entire energy value chain to increase throughput, locking system users into unsustainable practices. This report uses the qualitative research approach to explore the electricity industry in Ghana. There is a need for increasing renewable energy, such as wind and solar, in electricity generation. The research recommends two critical business models for the penetration of renewable energy in Ghana's power sector. The first model is the peer-to-peer electricity trading model, which relies on a software platform to connect consumers and generators in order for them to trade energy directly with one another. The second model is about encouraging local energy generation, incentivizing optimal time-of-use behaviour, and allowing any financial gains to be shared among the community members.

Keywords: business model innovation, electricity generation, renewable energy, solar energy, sustainability, wind energy

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Authors: Umit Cali

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The integration of intermittent energy sources like wind farms into the electricity grid has become an important challenge for the utilization and control of electric power systems, because of the fluctuating behaviour of wind power generation. Wind power predictions improve the economic and technical integration of large amounts of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Trading, balancing, grid operation, controllability and safety issues increase the importance of predicting power output from wind power operators. Therefore, wind power forecasting systems have to be integrated into the monitoring and control systems of the transmission system operator (TSO) and wind farm operators/traders. The wind forecasts are relatively precise for the time period of only a few hours, and, therefore, relevant with regard to Spot and Intraday markets. In this work predictive data mining techniques are applied to identify a statistical and neural network model or set of models that can be used to predict wind power output of large onshore and offshore wind farms. These advanced data analytic methods helps us to amalgamate the information in very large meteorological, oceanographic and SCADA data sets into useful information and manageable systems. Accurate wind power forecasts are beneficial for wind plant operators, utility operators, and utility customers. An accurate forecast allows grid operators to schedule economically efficient generation to meet the demand of electrical customers. This study is also dedicated to an in-depth consideration of issues such as the comparison of day ahead and the short-term wind power forecasting results, determination of the accuracy of the wind power prediction and the evaluation of the energy economic and technical benefits of wind power forecasting.

Keywords: renewable energy sources, wind power, forecasting, data mining, big data, artificial intelligence, energy economics, power trading, power grids

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Authors: Afsane Amiri

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Electric Vehicle (EV) technology is expected to take a major share in the light-vehicle market in the coming decades. Charging of EVs will put an extra burden on the distribution grid and in some cases adjustments will need to be made. In this paper a review of different plug-in and vehicle to grid (V2G) capable vehicles are given along with their power electronics topologies. The economic implication of charging the vehicle or sending power back to the utility is described in brief.

Keywords: energy storage system, battery unit, cost, optimal sizing, plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), smart grid

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Authors: Michaela Storen, Michelle Harvey, Xavier Conlan

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Gun violence internationally is increasing at an unprecedented level, becoming a favoured means for executing violence against another individual. Not only is this putting a strain on forensic scientists who attempt to determine the cause of death in circumstances where firearms have been involved in the death of an individual, but it also highlights the need for an alternative technique of identification of a gunshot wound when other established techniques have been exhausted. A corpse may be colonized by necrophagous insects following death, and this close association between the time of death and insect colonization makes entomological samples valuable evidence when remains become decomposed beyond toxicological utility. Entomotoxicology provides the potential for the identification of toxins in a decomposing corpse, with recent research uncovering the capabilities of entomotoxicology to detect gunshot residue (GSR) in a corpse. However, shortcomings of the limited literature available on this topic have not been addressed, with the bioaccumulation, detection limits, and sensitivity to gunshots not considered thus far, leaving questions as to the applicability of this new technique in the forensic context. Larvae were placed on meat contaminated with GSR at different concentrations and compared to a control meat sample to establish the uptake of GSR by the larvae, with bioaccumulation established by placing the larvae on fresh, uncontaminated meat for a period of time before analysis using ICP-MS. The findings of Pb, Ba, and Sb at each stage of the lifecycle and bioaccumulation in the larvae will be presented. In addition, throughout these previously mentioned experiments, larvae were washed once, twice and three times to evaluate the effectiveness of existing entomological practices in removing external toxins from specimens prior to entomotoxicologyical analysis. Analysis of these larval washes will be presented. By addressing these points, this research extends the utility of entomotoxicology in cause-of-death investigations and provides an additional source of evidence for forensic scientists in the circumstances involving a gunshot wound on a corpse, in addition to advising the effectiveness of current entomology collection protocols.

Keywords: bioaccumulation, chemistry, entomology, gunshot residue, toxicology

Procedia PDF Downloads 81