Search results for: portfolio diversification

Authors: Alaa Alshehri

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It has been thought that kinship in modernization is moving in a linear Western model; however, the literature shows that different cultures adjust to modernization by preserving its norms and values. Saudi Arabia is a young country experiencing rapid expansion from oil discovery until economic diversification. By conducting 10 interviews from different provinces of the country from the age of 27-47, these anthropological studies suggest that Saudi people adapted to modernization and globalization through unique interactions with extended families by asking the participants to give detailed descriptions of their interactions with their kinship. With almost all the participants noticing the changes within the last few years, this interaction is rooted in their religious beliefs, which they stressed, even with the free choice of life opportunities. They tried to find a balance between individuality and collectivity and connect the gap between the older and younger generations. This study adds to the anthropological debate on kinship definition and ties in modernization and provides a perspective on the social reality of one of the major Middle Eastern countries, Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: collectivity, economic diversification, kinship, modernization theory, individuality

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Authors: Viviana Ventre, Giacomo Di Tollo, Roberta Martino

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The portfolio selection problem includes the evaluation of many criteria that are difficult to compare directly and is characterized by uncertain elements. The portfolio selection problem can be modeled as a group decision problem in which several experts are invited to present their assessment. In this context, it is important to study and analyze the process of reaching a consensus among group members. Indeed, due to the various diversities among experts, reaching consensus is not necessarily always simple and easily achievable. Moreover, the concept of consensus is accompanied by the concept of false consensus, which is particularly interesting in the dynamics of group decision-making processes. False consensus can alter the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative and is the consequence of the decision maker's inability to recognize that his preferences are conditioned by subjective structures. The present work aims to investigate the dynamics of consensus attainment in a group decision problem in which equivalent portfolios are proposed. In particular, the study aims to analyze the impact of the subjective structure of the decision-maker during the evaluation and selection phase of the alternatives. Therefore, the experimental framework is divided into three phases. In the first phase, experts are sent to evaluate the characteristics of all portfolios individually, without peer comparison, arriving independently at the selection of the preferred portfolio. The experts' evaluations are used to obtain individual Analytical Hierarchical Processes that define the weight that each expert gives to all criteria with respect to the proposed alternatives. This step provides insight into how the decision maker's decision process develops, step by step, from goal analysis to alternative selection. The second phase includes the description of the decision maker's state through Markov chains. In fact, the individual weights obtained in the first phase can be reviewed and described as transition weights from one state to another. Thus, with the construction of the individual transition matrices, the possible next state of the expert is determined from the individual weights at the end of the first phase. Finally, the experts meet, and the process of reaching consensus is analyzed by considering the single individual state obtained at the previous stage and the false consensus bias. The work contributes to the study of the impact of subjective structures, quantified through the Analytical Hierarchical Process, and how they combine with the false consensus bias in group decision-making dynamics and the consensus reaching process in problems involving the selection of equivalent portfolios.

Keywords: analytical hierarchical process, consensus building, false consensus effect, markov chains, portfolio selection problem

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Authors: Abdelouahab Errida, Bouchra Lotfi, Elalami Semma

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In this paper, we try to address the topic of multiple change management by adopting an engineered research methodology, conducted within a Moroccan company during its implementation of several change projects that aim at improving its supply chain management performance. Firstly, we present the key concepts related to our research, namely change management, multiproject management and supply chain management. Then, we try to assess how the change management and multi-project management are applied in this company. Finally, we try to propose an approach that will help managers in dealing with multiple change projects. This approach proposes to integrate change management, project management and multi-project management for managing change projects according to three organizational levels: executive level, project portfolio level and change project level.

Keywords: change management, multi-project management, project management, change portfolio, supply chain management,

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Authors: Assaad Ghazouani

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Tunisia is ranked among the countries with low energy diversification, but this configuration makes the country too dependent on fossil fuel exporting countries and therefore extremely sensitive to any oil crises, many measures to diversify electricity production must be taken in making use of other forms of renewable and nuclear energy. One of the solutions required to escape this dependence is the liberalization of the electricity industry which can lead to an improvement of supply, energy diversification, and reducing some of the negative effects of the trade balance. This paper examines the issue of renewable electricity and economic growth in Tunisia consumption. The main objective is to study and analyze the causal link between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Tunisia over the period 1980-2010. To examine the relationship in the short and in the long terms, we used a multidimensional approach to cointegration based on recent advances in time series econometrics (test Zivot - Andrews, Test of Cointegration Johannsen, Granger causality test, error correction model (ECM)).

Keywords: renewable electricity, economic growth, VECM, cointegration, Tunisia

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Authors: A. Lefebre, M. Willekens, K. Debackere

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Since the 1990s, patent applications have been booming, especially in the field of telecommunications. However, this increase in patent filings has been associated with an (alleged) decrease in patent quality. The plethora of low-quality patents devalues the high-quality ones, thus weakening the incentives for inventors to patent inventions. Despite the rich literature on strategic patenting, previous research has neglected to emphasize the importance of patent portfolio management and its impact on patent quality. In this paper, we compare related patent portfolios vs. nonrelated patents and investigate whether the patent quality and innovativeness differ between the two types. In the analyses, patent quality is proxied by five individual proxies (number of inventors, claims, renewal years, designated states, and grant lag), and these proxies are then aggregated into a quality index. Innovativeness is proxied by two measures: the originality and radicalness index. Results suggest that related patent portfolios have, on average, a lower patent quality compared to nonrelated patents, thus suggesting that firms use them for strategic purposes rather than for the extended protection they could offer. Even upon testing the individual proxies as a dependent variable, we find evidence that related patent portfolios are of lower quality compared to nonrelated patents, although not all results show significant coefficients. Furthermore, these proxies provide evidence of the importance of adding fixed effects to the model. Since prior research has found that these proxies are inherently flawed and never fully capture the concept of patent quality, we have chosen to run the analyses with individual proxies as supplementary analyses; however, we stick with the comprehensive index as our main model. This ensures that the results are not dependent upon one certain proxy but allows for multiple views of the concept. The presence of divisional applications might be linked to the level of innovativeness of the underlying invention. It could be the case that the parent application is so important that firms are going through the administrative burden of filing for divisional applications to ensure the protection of the invention and the preemption of competition. However, it could also be the case that the preempting is a result of divisional applications being used strategically as a backup plan and prolonging strategy, thus negatively impacting the innovation in the portfolio. Upon testing the level of novelty and innovation in the related patent portfolios by means of the originality and radicalness index, we find evidence for a significant negative association with related patent portfolios. The minimum innovation that has been brought on by the patents in the related patent portfolio is lower compared to the minimum innovation that can be found in nonrelated portfolios, providing evidence for the second argument.

Keywords: patent portfolio management, patent quality, related patent portfolios, strategic patenting

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Authors: Till Gramberg

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In the dynamic world of machine and plant engineering, stagnation in the growth of new product sales compels companies to reconsider their business models. The increasing shift toward service orientation, known as "servitization," along with challenges posed by digitalization and sustainability, necessitates an adaptation of product portfolio management (PPM). Against this backdrop, this study investigates the current challenges and requirements of PPM in this industrial context and develops a framework for the application of generative artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance agility and efficiency in PPM processes. The research approach of this study is based on a mixed-method design. Initially, qualitative interviews with industry experts were conducted to gain a deep understanding of the specific challenges and requirements in PPM. These interviews were analyzed using the Gioia method, painting a detailed picture of the existing issues and needs within the sector. This was complemented by a quantitative online survey. The combination of qualitative and quantitative research enabled a comprehensive understanding of the current challenges in the practical application of machine and plant engineering PPM. Based on these insights, a specific framework for the application of generative AI in PPM was developed. This framework aims to assist companies in implementing faster and more agile processes, systematically integrating dynamic requirements from trends such as digitalization and sustainability into their PPM process. Utilizing generative AI technologies, companies can more quickly identify and respond to trends and market changes, allowing for a more efficient and targeted adaptation of the product portfolio. The study emphasizes the importance of an agile and reactive approach to PPM in a rapidly changing environment. It demonstrates how generative AI can serve as a powerful tool to manage the complexity of a diversified and continually evolving product portfolio. The developed framework offers practical guidelines and strategies for companies to improve their PPM processes by leveraging the latest technological advancements while maintaining ecological and social responsibility. This paper significantly contributes to deepening the understanding of the application of generative AI in PPM and provides a framework for companies to manage their product portfolios more effectively and adapt to changing market conditions. The findings underscore the relevance of continuous adaptation and innovation in PPM strategies and demonstrate the potential of generative AI for proactive and future-oriented business management.

Keywords: servitization, product portfolio management, generative AI, disruptive innovation, machine and plant engineering

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Authors: Wee Tong Liaw, Elaine Wong Yee Sing

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Since 2001, many companies in Singapore have voluntarily participated in the bi-annual Singapore HEALTH Award initiated by the Health Promotion Board of Singapore (HPB). The Singapore HEALTH Award (SHA), is an industry wide award and assessment process. SHA assesses and recognizes employers in Singapore for implementing a comprehensive and sustainable health promotion programme at their workplaces. The rationale for implementing a sustained health promoting workplace and participating in SHA is obvious when company management is convinced that healthier employees, business productivity, and profitability are positively correlated. However, performing research or empirical studies on the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on stock returns are not likely to yield any interests in the absence of a systematic and independent assessment on the comprehensiveness and sustainability of a health promoting workplace in most developed economies. The principles of diversification and mean-variance efficient portfolio in Modern Portfolio Theory developed by Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for the works of many financial economists and researchers, and among others, the development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model from the work of Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) and Mossin (1966), and the Fama-French Three-Factor Model of Fama and French (1992). This research seeks to support the rationale by studying whether there is a significant relationship or impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on the performance of companies listed on the SGX. The research shall form and test hypotheses pertaining to the impact of a sustained health promoting workplace on company’s performances, including stock returns, of companies that participated in the SHA and companies that did not participate in the SHA. In doing so, the research would be able to determine whether corporate and fund manager should consider the significance of a sustained health promoting workplace as a risk factor to explain the stock returns of companies listed on the SGX. With respect to Singapore’s stock market, this research will test the significance and relevance of a health promoting workplace using the Singapore Health Award as a proxy for non-diversifiable risk factor to explain stock returns. This study will examine the significance of a health promoting workplace on a company’s performance and study its impact on stock price performance and beta and examine if it has higher explanatory power than the traditional single factor asset pricing model CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model). To study the significance there are three key questions pertinent to the research study. I) Given a choice, would an investor be better off investing in a listed company with a sustained health promoting workplace i.e. a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? II) The Singapore Health Award has four levels of award starting from Bronze, Silver, Gold to Platinum. Would an investor be indifferent to the level of award when investing in a listed company who is a Singapore Health Award’s recipient? III) Would an asset pricing model combining FAMA-French Three Factor Model and ‘Singapore Health Award’ factor be more accurate than single factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Three Factor Model itself?

Keywords: asset pricing model, company's performance, stock prices, sustained health promoting workplace

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Authors: Suleyman Karacor

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The main purpose of this study is to investigate tourism marketing in the information age because of the importance and sensitivity. In the twenty-first century as a result of today's the increasing competition and product diversification in the tourism sector, tourism businesses must take into account exogenous variables such as new technological developments, commercial experience and consumer demand. In the information age, tourist product consumers tend to reserve their leisure time and expenditure on more active opportunities for different experiences instead of living the same experience again. Increasing the number of agents in the tourism sector, travel opportunities offering different experiences and more intensive use of modern technology helps to present diversification of leisure activities for tourists. From the perspective of tourists, travel costs are still important for buying the touristic products but maintaining a high level of tourist satisfaction is also of increasing importance. Tourists tend to prefer activities that add value. A real tourist product must be able to create value and new priorities for tourists. Therefore this study aims to review recent significant developments in international tourism marketing research and practices. To this end, this study reviews tourism marketing-focused articles.

Keywords: information age, tourism marketing, tourism marketing mix, management

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Authors: Nico Fuchs, Fabian Wüllhorst, Laura Maier, Dirk Müller

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The decarbonization of building stocks necessitates the modernization of existing buildings. Key measures for this include reducing energy demands through insulation of the building envelope, replacing heat generators, and installing solar systems. Given limited financial resources, it is impractical to modernize all buildings in a portfolio simultaneously; instead, prioritization of buildings and modernization measures for a given planning horizon is essential. Optimization models for modernization pathways can assist portfolio managers in this prioritization. However, modeling and solving these large-scale optimization problems, often represented as mixed-integer problems (MIP), necessitates simplifying the operation of building energy systems particularly with respect to system dynamics and transient behavior. This raises the question of which level of simplification remains sufficient to accurately account for realistic costs and emissions of building energy systems, ensuring a fair comparison of different modernization measures. This study addresses this issue by comparing a two-stage simulation-based optimization approach with a single-stage mathematical optimization in a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. The simulation-based approach serves as a benchmark for realistic energy system operation but requires a restriction of the solution space to discrete choices of modernization measures, such as the sizing of heating systems. After calculating the operation of different energy systems in terms of the resulting final energy demands in simulation models on a first stage, the results serve as input for a second stage MILP optimization, where the design of each building in the portfolio is optimized. In contrast to the simulation-based approach, the MILP-based approach can capture a broader variety of modernization measures due to the efficiency of MILP solvers but necessitates simplifying the building energy system operation. Both approaches are employed to determine the cost-optimal design and dimensioning of several buildings in a portfolio to meet climate targets within limited yearly budgets, resulting in a modernization pathway for the entire portfolio. The comparison reveals that the MILP formulation successfully captures design decisions of building energy systems, such as the selection of heating systems and the modernization of building envelopes. However, the results regarding the optimal dimensioning of heating technologies differ from the results of the two-stage simulation-based approach, as the MILP model tends to overestimate operational efficiency, highlighting the limitations of the MILP approach.

Keywords: building energy system optimization, model accuracy in optimization, modernization pathways, building stock decarbonization

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Authors: Wencong Lu, Abdul Latif, Raza Ullah, Subhan Ullah

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Agricultural production is subject to risk and the attitudes of producers toward risk, in turn, may be affected by certain socioeconomic characteristics of producers. Although, it is important to assess the risk attitude of farmers and their perception towards different calamitous risk sources for better understanding of their risk management adoption decisions, to the best of our knowledge no studies have been carried out to analyze the risk attitude and risk perceptions in the context of tobacco production in Pakistan. Therefore the study in hand is conducted with an attempt to overcome the gap in existing literature by analyzing different catastrophic risk sources faced by tobacco growers, their attitude towards risk and the effect of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, farmers’ participation in contract farming and off-farm diversification on their risk attitude and risk perception. Around 78% of Pakistan’s entire tobacco crop and nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. The yield/hectare of tobacco produced in KPK province is 14% higher than the global average and 22 % higher than national average. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province was selected as main study area as nearly all of the country’s Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco is produced in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province alone. Six districts were purposely selected based on their contribution in overall production for the last five years which accounts for more than 94.84% of the tobacco production in KPK province. Specific objectives taken into considerations for this study are the risk attitude of the farmers for growing FCV tobacco crop, farmers’ risk perception for different risk sources related to tobacco production (as far as the incidence and severity of each risk source is concerned) and the effect of socioeconomic characteristics, contract farming participation and off-farm diversification (income) on the risk attitude and risk perception of FCV tobacco growers.

Keywords: risk attitude, risk perception, contract farming, off-farm diversification, probit model

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Authors: M. Khajezadeh, M. Saied Fallah Niasar, S. Ali Asli, D. Davani Davari, M. Godarzi, Y. Asgari

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This study aims to explore the joint application of both Boston and Ansoff matrices in the operational development of the product. We conduct deep analysis, by utilizing the Artificial Neural Network, to predict the position of the product in the market while the company is interested in increasing its share. The data are gathered from two industries, called hygiene and detergent. In doing so, the effort is being made by investigating the behavior of top player companies and, recommend strategic orientations. In conclusion, this combination analysis is appropriate for operational development; as well, it plays an important role in providing the position of the product in the market for both hygiene and detergent industries. More importantly, it will elaborate on the company’s strategies to increase its market share related to a combination of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Matrix and Ansoff Matrix.

Keywords: artificial neural network, portfolio analysis, BCG matrix, Ansoff matrix

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Authors: Gulnara Galeeva

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The Analytic Hierarchy Process is widely used in the economic and financial studies, including the formation of investment portfolios. In this study, a generalized method of obtaining a vector of priorities for the case with separate pairwise comparisons of the expert opinion being presented as a set of several equal evaluations on a ratio scale is examined. The author claims that this method allows solving an important and up-to-date problem of excluding vagueness and ambiguity of the expert opinion in the decision making theory. The study describes the authentic wide pairwise comparison matrix. Its application in the formation of the efficient investment portfolio of intangible assets of a small business enterprise with limited funding is considered. The proposed method has been successfully approbated on the practical example of a functioning dental clinic. The result of the study confirms that the wide pairwise comparison matrix can be used as a simple and reliable method for forming the enterprise investment policy. Moreover, a comparison between the method based on the wide pairwise comparison matrix and the classical analytic hierarchy process was conducted. The results of the comparative analysis confirm the correctness of the method based on the wide matrix. The application of a wide pairwise comparison matrix also allows to widely use the statistical methods of experimental data processing for obtaining the vector of priorities. A new method is available for simple users. Its application gives about the same accuracy result as that of the classical hierarchy process. Financial directors of small and medium business enterprises get an opportunity to solve the problem of companies’ investments without resorting to services of analytical agencies specializing in such studies.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, decision processes, investment portfolio, intangible assets

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Authors: Lukman Oyelami

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Studies have identified trade as a veritable tool for inclusive economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries. However, contrary to the overwhelming pieces of evidence of the Asian tiger as a success story of beneficial trade, many African countries still experience poverty unabatedly despite active engagement in trade. Consequently, this study seeks to investigate the contributory effect of technological innovation on total export performance and specifically manufacturing exports of African countries. This is with a view to exploring manufacturing exports as a viable option for diversification. To achieve the empirical investigation this study, require Systems Generalized Method of Moments (sys-GMM) estimation technique was adopted based on the econometric realities inherent in the data utilized. However, the static technique of panel estimation of the Fixed Effects (FE) model was utilized for baseline analysis and robustness check. The conclusion from this study is that innovation generally impacts export performance of African countries positively, however, manufacturing export shows more sensitivity to innovation than total export. And, this provides a clear pathway for export diversification for many African countries that run a resource-based economy.

Keywords: innovation, export, GMM, Africa

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Authors: Abul Quasem Al-Amin, Md. Hasanuzzaman, Mohammad Nurul Azam, Walter Leal Filho

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With regard to the future energy strategy and vision, this study aimed to find the drawbacks of proposed energy diversification policy for 2020. To have a clear picture of the drawback and competitive alternative, this study has explored two scenarios, namely Scenario a and Scenario b. The Scenario a indicates that in the year 2020 the GHG emissions would be 823,498.00 million tons (Mt) with a 2020 final demand and proposed fuel mix such as by the Five-Fuel Diversification Strategy. In contrast, as an alternative, the Scenario b with biofuel potentials indicates that the substitution of coal energy by 5%, 10%, and 15%, respectively, with biofuel, would reduce the GHG emissions from 374,551.00, 405,118.00, and 823,498.00 million tons to 339,964.00, 329,834.00, and 305,288.00 million tons, respectively, by the present fuel mix, business-as-usual fuel mix, and proposed fuel mix up to the year 2020. Therefore, this study has explored a healthy alternative by introducing biofuel renewable energy option instead of conventional energy utilization in the power generation with environmental aspect in minds. This study effort would lessen the gap between GHG mitigation and future sustainable development and would useful to formulate effective renewable energy strategy in Malaysia.

Keywords: energy, environmental impacts, renewable energy, biofuel, energy policy

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Authors: Abubakar O. Sulaiman

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Agriculture was the main stay of Nigeria’s economy before the oil boom of the 1970s caused a gradual but steady shift from agriculture to crude oil as the major source of revenue and foreign exchange. The economy later experienced many symptoms of the 'Dutch disease', with exchange rate appreciation and erosion of competitiveness of the non-oil tradable goods. In order to reverse the worsening economic situations -high unemployment, galloping inflation, deteriorating balance of payment, declining economic growth, and fiscal deficits among others- the government, embarked on austerity measures in 1982 and Structure Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986. One of the cornerstones of SAP is the diversification of the economy from oil to non-oil. In the form of stocktaking, this paper investigates the impact of non-oil revenue on economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly time-series data from 1980 to 2019. The findings revealed that a long-run relationship exists between the variables (non-oil variables) and economic growth in Nigeria. Among the variables, (agriculture revenue, manufacturing revenue, revenue from services, and company income tax) contributed substantially to economic growth. The paper recommends that the government should continue to intensify efforts and policies in the diversification of the economy as it will bring about sustainable non-oil revenue and economic growth.

Keywords: non-oil revenue, economic growth, export, long run relationship

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Authors: Gulnara Galeeva, Yulia Kasperskaya

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The study deals with the relevant problem related to the formation of the efficient investment portfolio of an enterprise. The structure of the investment portfolio is connected to the degree of influence of intangible assets on the enterprise’s income. This determines the importance of research on the content of intangible assets. However, intangible assets studies do not take into consideration how the enterprise state can affect the content and the importance of intangible assets for the enterprise`s income. This affects accurateness of the calculations. In order to study this problem, the research was divided into several stages. In the first stage, intangible assets were classified based on their synergies as the underlying intangibles and the additional intangibles. In the second stage, this classification was applied. It showed that the lifecycle model and the theory of abrupt development of the enterprise, that are taken into account while designing investment projects, constitute limit cases of a more general theory of bifurcations. The research identified that the qualitative content of intangible assets significant depends on how close the enterprise is to being in crisis. In the third stage, the author developed and applied the Wide Pairwise Comparison Matrix method. This allowed to establish that using the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean value of the elements of the vector of priority of intangible assets makes it possible to estimate the probability of a full-blown crisis of the enterprise. The author has identified a criterion, which allows making fundamental decisions on investment feasibility. The study also developed an additional rapid method of assessing the enterprise overall status based on using the questionnaire survey with its Director. The questionnaire consists only of two questions. The research specifically focused on the fundamental role of stochastic resonance in the emergence of bifurcation (crisis) in the economic development of the enterprise. The synergetic approach made it possible to describe the mechanism of the crisis start in details and also to identify a range of universal ways of overcoming the crisis. It was outlined that the structure of intangible assets transforms into a more organized state with the strengthened synchronization of all processes as a result of the impact of the sporadic (white) noise. Obtained results offer managers and business owners a simple and an affordable method of investment portfolio optimization, which takes into account how close the enterprise is to a state of a full-blown crisis.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, bifurcation, investment portfolio, intangible assets, wide matrix

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Authors: Farid Habibi Tanha, Hawati Janor, Mojtaba Jahanbazi

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The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of asymmetric information on the composition of capital inflows. This study uses the stock market microstructure to capture the asymmetric information. Such an approach allows one to capture the level and extent of the asymmetric information from a firm’s perspective. This study focuses on the two-dimensional measure of the market microstructure in capturing asymmetric information. The composition of capital inflows is measured by running six models simultaneously. By employing the panel data technique, the main finding of this research shows an increase in the asymmetric information of the stock market, in any of the two dimensions of width and depth. This leads to the reduction of foreign investments in both forms of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) and foreign direct investment (FDI), while the reduction in FPI is higher than that of the FDI. The significant effect of asymmetric information on capital inflows implicitly suggests for policymakers to control the changes of foreign capital inflows through transparency in the level of the market.

Keywords: capital flows composition, asymmetric information, stock market microstructure, foreign portfolio investment, foreign direct investment

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Authors: Chimezie P. Nnanwa, Thomas C. Urama, Patrick O. Ezepue

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In this paper we use Random Matrix Theory to analyze the eigen-structure of the empirical correlations of 82 stocks which are consistently traded in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) over a 4-year study period 3 August 2009 to 26 August 2013. We apply the Marchenko-Pastur distribution of eigenvalues of a purely random matrix to investigate the presence of investment-pertinent information contained in the empirical correlation matrix of the selected stocks. We use hypothesised standard normal distribution of eigenvector components from RMT to assess deviations of the empirical eigenvectors to this distribution for different eigenvalues. We also use the Inverse Participation Ratio to measure the deviation of eigenvectors of the empirical correlation matrix from RMT results. These preliminary results on the dynamics of asset price correlations in the NSE are important for improving risk-return trade-offs associated with Markowitz’s portfolio optimization in the stock exchange, which is pursued in future work.

Keywords: correlation matrix, eigenvalue and eigenvector, inverse participation ratio, portfolio optimization, random matrix theory

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Authors: Jean Marie Tshimula, Atsushi Togashi

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We develop a data-science approach for providing an interactive visualization and predictive models to find insights into the projects' historical data in order for stakeholders understand some unseen opportunities in the African market that might escape them behind the online project portfolio of the African Development Bank. This machine learning-based web application identifies the market trend of the fastest growing economies across the continent as well skyrocketing sectors which have a significant impact on the future of business in Africa. Owing to this, the approach is tailored to predict where the investment needs are the most required. Moreover, we create a corpus that includes the descriptions of over more than 1,200 projects that approximately cover 14 sectors designed for some of 53 African countries. Then, we sift out this large amount of semi-structured data for extracting tiny details susceptible to contain some directions to follow. In the light of the foregoing, we have applied the combination of Latent Dirichlet Allocation and Random Forests at the level of the analysis module of our methodology to highlight the most relevant topics that investors may focus on for investing in Africa.

Keywords: machine learning, topic modeling, natural language processing, big data

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Authors: Mustapha Shitu Suleiman, Francis Neshamba, Nestor Valero-Silva

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Small businesses are considered as engine of economic growth, contributing to employment generation, wealth creation, and poverty alleviation and food security in both developed and developing countries. Nigeria is facing many socio-economic problems and it is believed that by supporting small business development, as propellers of new ideas and more effective users of resources, often driven by individual creativity and innovation, Nigeria would be able to address some of its economic and social challenges, such as unemployment and economic diversification. Using secondary literature, this paper examines the role small businesses can play in the creation of jobs in North-West Nigeria to overcome issues of unemployment, which is the most devastating economic challenge facing the region. Most studies in this area have focused on Nigeria as a whole and only a few studies provide a regional focus, hence, this study will contribute to knowledge by filling this gap by concentrating on North-West Nigeria. It is hoped that with the present administration’s determination to improve the economy, small businesses would be used as vehicles for diversification of the economy away from crude oil to create jobs that would lead to a reduction in the country’s high unemployment level.

Keywords: job creation, north-west, Nigeria, small business, unemployment

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Authors: Andrea Paltrinieri, Alberto Dreassi, Stefano Miani, Alex Sclip

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The financial crises caused a collapse in prices of most asset classes, raising the attention on alternative investments such as Sukuk, a smaller, fast growing but often misunderstood market. We study diversification benefits of Sukuk, their correlation with other asset classes and the effects of their inclusion in investment portfolios of institutional and retail investors, through a comprehensive comparison of their risk/return profiles during and after the financial crisis. We find a beneficial performance adjusted for the specific volatility together with a lower correlation especially during the financial crisis. The distribution of Sukuk returns is positively skewed and leptokurtic, with a risk/return profile similarly to high yield bonds. Overall, our results suggest that Sukuk present diversification opportunities, a significant volatility-adjusted performance and lower correlations especially during the financial crisis. Our findings are relevant for a number of institutional investors. Long term investors, such as life insurers would benefit from Sukuk’s protective features during financial crisis yet keeping return and growth opportunities, whereas banks would gain due to their role of placers, advisors, market makers or underwriters.

Keywords: sukuk, zero beta asset, asset allocation, sukuk market

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Authors: Aziz Larbi, Widad Sadok

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In Morocco, the mountainous regions extend over about 26% of the national territory where 30% of the total population live. They contain opportunities for agriculture, forestry, pastureland and mining. The production systems in these zones are characterised by crop diversification. However, these areas have become vulnerable to the effects of climate change. To understand these effects in relation to the population living in these areas, a study was carried out in the zone of Taliouine, in the Anti-Atlas. The vulnerability of crop productions to climate change was analysed and the different ways of adaptation adopted by farmers were identified. The work was done on saffron, the most profitable crop in the target area even though it requires much water. Our results show that the majority of the farmers surveyed had noticed variations in the climate of the region: irregularity of precipitation leading to a decrease in quantity and an uneven distribution throughout the year; rise in temperature; reduction in the cold period and less snow. These variations had impacts on the cropping system of saffron and its productivity. To cope with these effects, the farmers adopted various strategies: better management and use of water; diversification of agricultural activities; increase in the contribution of non-agricultural activities to their gross income; and seasonal migration.

Keywords: climate change, Taliouine, saffron, perceptions, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Yi-Min Lan, Hung-Wen Cheng, Hsuan-Ling Chang, Jou-Ping Yu

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The study applies machine learning models to construct momentum strategies and utilizes the information coefficient as an indicator for selecting stocks with strong and weak momentum characteristics. Through this approach, the study has built investment portfolios capable of generating superior returns and conducted a thorough analysis. Compared to existing research on momentum strategies, machine learning is incorporated to capture non-linear interactions. This approach enhances the conventional stock selection process, which is often impeded by difficulties associated with timeliness, accuracy, and efficiency due to market risk factors. The study finds that implementing bidirectional momentum strategies outperforms unidirectional ones, and momentum factors with longer observation periods exhibit stronger correlations with returns. Optimizing the number of stocks in the portfolio while staying within a certain threshold leads to the highest level of excess returns. The study presents a novel framework for momentum strategies that enhances and improves the operational aspects of asset management. By introducing innovative financial technology applications to traditional investment strategies, this paper can demonstrate significant effectiveness.

Keywords: information coefficient, machine learning, momentum, portfolio, return prediction

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Authors: Musa M. Umar, S. G. Ado

Abstract:

The paper examines the activities of the National Programme for food security (NPFS) for averting food insecurity in Nigeria and beyond. The components of the NPFS include site development, outreach, community development and management support. On each site, core activities comprise crop productivity, production diversification and agro-processing. The outreach activities consist of inputs and commodity marketing, rural finance, strengthening research-extension-farmers-inputs linkages, health and nutrition and expansion of site activities. The community development activities include small-scale rural infrastructure, micro-earth dams and community forestry. The overall benefits include food security, improved productivity, marketing and processing, enhanced land and water use, increased animal production and fish catches, improved nutrition, reduction in post-harvest losses and value addition, improved rural infrastructure and diversification of production leading to improved livelihood. The NPFS would poster sustained development of small-holder agricultural and income generation.

Keywords: food-security, community development, post-harvest, production

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Authors: Yuyang Cheng, Marcos Escobar-Anel

Abstract:

This paper introduces a multivariate 4/2 stochastic covariance process generalizing the one-dimensional counterparts presented in Grasselli (2017). Our construction permits stochastic correlation not only among stocks but also among volatilities, also known as co-volatility movements, both driven by more convenient 4/2 stochastic structures. The parametrization is flexible enough to separate these types of correlation, permitting their individual study. Conditions for proper changes of measure and closed-form characteristic functions under risk-neutral and historical measures are provided, allowing for applications of the model to risk management and derivative pricing. We apply the model to an expected utility theory problem in incomplete markets. Our analysis leads to closed-form solutions for the optimal allocation and value function. Conditions are provided for well-defined solutions together with a verification theorem. Our numerical analysis highlights and separates the impact of key statistics on equity portfolio decisions, in particular, volatility, correlation, and co-volatility movements, with the latter being the least important in an incomplete market.

Keywords: stochastic covariance process, 4/2 stochastic volatility model, stochastic co-volatility movements, characteristic function, expected utility theory, verication theorem

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Authors: Nura Bello

Abstract:

Sokoto caliphate is the product of a hectic revolutionary movement that took place in the first decade of the nineteenth century under the leadership of Seikh Usmanu Danfodio. The movement led to the overthrow of the Sarauta system in Hausa Land, leading to the emergence of the Sokoto caliphate and Sokoto city as its headquarters. This development led to the collapse of Alkalawa (headquarters of the Gobir Kingdom) in 1808. A year later, in 1809, Sokoto city emerged as the headquarter of the Sokoto Caliphate. Due to the open door policy adopted by the leaders, the city came to experience an influx of people especially craft manufacturers from all over Hausa Land and beyond, who occupied many areas of the city and engaged in different craft production. This paper aims to highlight the development of crafts manufacturing in the 19th century Sokoto city and its contribution to transforming the city into a major economic base of the caliphate. In dealing with the above issue, qualitative research methods that mainly involve the use of oral and archival data will be adopted. Finally, the paper identified that the expansion of craft manufacturing in the 19th century Sokoto city could have resulted from the role played by the leadership of the caliphate, which favoured such development. The paper argues that if those industries were revived in Nigeria today, they would ultimately create various jobs among the younger generations, which would result in economic prosperity.

Keywords: craft manufacturing, diversification, economy, migration

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Authors: Gauri Sreekumar, Sabuj Kumar Mandal

Abstract:

Contributing about 18% to India’s Gross Domestic Product, the agricultural sector plays a significant role in the Indian rural economy. Despite being the primary source of livelihood for more than half of India’s population, most of them are marginal and small farmers facing several challenges due to agro-climatic shocks. Climate change is expected to increase the risk in the regions that are highly agriculture dependent. With systematic and scientific evidence of changes in rainfall, temperature and other extreme climate events, migration started to emerge as a survival strategy for the farm households. In this backdrop, our present study aims to combine the two strands of literature and attempts to explore whether migration is the only adaptation strategy for the farmers once they experience crop failures due adverse climatic condition. Combining the temperature and rainfall information from the weather data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department with the household level panel data on Indian states belonging to the Eastern and Semi-Arid Tropics regions from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) collected by the International Crop Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics, we form a rich panel data for the years 2010-2014. A Recursive Econometric Model is used to establish the three-way nexus between climate change-yield-migration while addressing the role of irrigation and local non-farm income diversification. Using Three Stage Least Squares Estimation method, we find that climate change induced yield loss is a major driver of farmers’ migration. However, irrigation and local level non-farm income diversification are found to mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on migration. Based on our empirical results, we suggest for enhancing irrigation facilities and making local non-farm income diversification opportunities available to increase farm productivity and thereby reduce farmers’ migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, adaptation, mitigation

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Authors: Dian Nur Amalia, Rifqi Dhiemas Aji, Tri Septa Wahyuningsih, Endang Wahyuni

Abstract:

Kepel fruit (Stelechocarpus burahol) is a scarce fruit that belongs as a logogram of Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Kepel fruit can be used as substance of beauty treatment product, such as deodorant and good for skin health, and also contains antioxidant compound. Otherwise, this fruit is scarcely cultivated by people because of its image as a palace fruit and also the flesh percentage just a little, so it has low economic value. The flesh of kepel fruit is about 49% of its whole fruit. This little part as supporting point why kepel fruit has to be extracted and processed with the other product. Yoghurt is milk processing product that also have a role as functional food. Economically, the price of yoghurt is higher than whole milk or other milk processing product. Yoghurt is usually added with flavor of dye from plant or from chemical substance. Kepel fruit has a role as flavor in yoghurt, besides as product that good for digestion, yoghurt with kepel also has function as “beauty” food. Writing method that used is literature study by looking for the potential of kepel fruit as a local fruit of Yogyakarta and yoghurt as milk processing product. The process just like making common yoghurt because kepel fruit just have a role as flavor substance, so it does not affect to the other processing of yoghurt. Food diversification can be done as an effort to increase the value of local resources that proper to compete in Asean Economic Community (AEC), one of the way is producing kepel yoghurt.

Keywords: kepel, yoghurt, Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta, functional food

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Authors: Zelalem Zerihun

Abstract:

In this study, attempts were made to assess the bank-specific, industry-specific, and macro-economic factors affecting bank profitability. Data were collected from ten commercial banks in Ethiopia, covering the period of 2008-2012. A mixed method research approach was adopted for this research. Documentary analysis and in-depth interview were also used to substantiate the data. The study found out that capital strength, income diversification, bank size and gross domestic product are statistically significant and they have a positive relationship with banks’ profitability. However, operational efficiency and asset quality have a negative relationship with banks’ profitability. The relationship for liquidity risk, concentration and inflation were found to be statistically insignificant. The study revealed that focusing and reengineering the banks in light of the key internal drivers could enhance the profitability as well as the performance of the commercial banks in Ethiopia. In addition to this, the study suggests that banks in Ethiopia should not only be concerned about internal structures but also they must consider both the internal environment and the macro-economic environment in designing strategies to improve their profit or their performance.

Keywords: Ethiopian banking industry, macro-economic factors, documentary analysis, capital strength, income diversification

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Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

Abstract:

Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 103