Search results for: tail risk

Authors: A. J. Al-Graitti, G. A. Khalid, P. Berthelson, A. Mason-Jones, R. Prabhu, M. D. Jones

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Motor vehicle related pedestrian road traffic collisions are a major road safety challenge, since they are a leading cause of death and serious injury worldwide, contributing to a third of the global disease burden. The auto rickshaw, which is a common form of urban transport in many developing countries, plays a major transport role, both as a vehicle for hire and for private use. The most common auto rickshaws are quite unlike ‘typical’ four-wheel motor vehicle, being typically characterised by three wheels, a non-tilting sheet-metal body or open frame construction, a canvas roof and side curtains, a small drivers’ cabin, handlebar controls and a passenger space at the rear. Given the propensity, in developing countries, for auto rickshaws to be used in mixed cityscapes, where pedestrians and vehicles share the roadway, the potential for auto rickshaw impacts with pedestrians is relatively high. Whilst auto rickshaws are used in some Western countries, their limited number and spatial separation from pedestrian walkways, as a result of city planning, has not resulted in significant accident statistics. Thus, auto rickshaws have not been subject to the vehicle impact related pedestrian crash kinematic analyses and/or injury mechanics assessment, typically associated with motor vehicle development in Western Europe, North America and Japan. This study presents a parametric analysis of auto rickshaw related pedestrian impacts by computational simulation, using a Finite Element model of an auto rickshaw and an LS-DYNA 50^th percentile male Hybrid III Anthropometric Test Device (dummy). Parametric variables include auto rickshaw impact velocity, auto rickshaw impact region (front, centre or offset) and relative pedestrian impact position (front, side and rear). The output data of each impact simulation was correlated against reported injury metrics, Head Injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Neck injury Criterion (front, side and rear), Abbreviated Injury Scale and reported risk level and adds greater understanding to the issue of auto rickshaw related pedestrian injury risk. The parametric analyses suggest that pedestrians are subject to a relatively high risk of injury during impacts with an auto rickshaw at velocities of 20 km/h or greater, which during some of the impact simulations may even risk fatalities. The present study provides valuable evidence for informing a series of recommendations and guidelines for making the auto rickshaw safer during collisions with pedestrians. Whilst it is acknowledged that the present research findings are based in the field of safety engineering and may over represent injury risk, compared to “Real World” accidents, many of the simulated interactions produced injury response values significantly greater than current threshold curves and thus, justify their inclusion in the study. To reduce the injury risk level and increase the safety of the auto rickshaw, there should be a reduction in the velocity of the auto rickshaw and, or, consideration of engineering solutions, such as retro fitting injury mitigation technologies to those auto rickshaw contact regions which are the subject of the greatest risk of producing pedestrian injury.

Keywords: auto rickshaw, finite element analysis, injury risk level, LS-DYNA, pedestrian impact

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Authors: M. Nosik, I. Rymanova, N. Adamovich, S. Sevostyanihin, K. Ryzhov, Y. Kuimova, A. Kravtchenko, N. Sergeeva, A. Sobkin

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HIV and Tuberculosis (TB) infections each speed the other's progress. HIV-infection increases the risk of TB disease. At the same time, TB infection is associated with clinical progression of HIV-infection. HIV+TB co-infected patients are also at higher risk of acquiring new opportunistic infections. An important feature of disease progression and clinical outcome is the innate and acquired immune responses. HIV and TB, however, have a spectrum of dysfunctions of the immune response. As cytokines play a crucial role in the immunopathology of both infections, it is important to study immune interactions in patients with dual infection HIV+TB. Plasma levels of proinflammatory cytokines IL-2, IFN-γ and immunoregulating cytokines IL-4, IL-10 were evaluated in 75 patients with dual infection HIV+TB, 58 patients with HIV monoinfection and 50 patients with TB monoinfection who were previously naïve for HAART. The decreased levels of IL-2, IFN-γ, IL-4 and IL-10 were observed in patients with dual infection HIV+TB in comparison with patients who had only HIV or TB which means the profound suppression of Th1 and Th2 cytokine secretion. Thus, those cytokines could possibly serve as immunological markers of progression of HIV-infection in patients with TB.

Keywords: HIV, tuberculosis (TB), HIV associated with TB, Th1/ Th2 cytokine expression

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Authors: David J. Thomson, Joshua C. J. Chew

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Background: Syndrome of Irreversible Lithium-Effectuated Neurotoxicity (SILENT) is a rare complication of lithium toxicity that typically causes irreversible cerebellar dysfunction. These patients may require hemodialysis and extensive supports in the intensive care. Methods: A review was performed on the available literature of SILENT with a focus on current pathophysiological hypotheses and advances in treatment. Articles were restricted to the English language. Results: Although the exact mechanism is unclear, CNS demyelination, especially in the cerebellum, was seen on the brain biopsies of a proportion of patients. There is no definitive management of SILENT but instead current management is focused on primary and tertiary prevention – detection of those at risk, and rehabilitation post onset of neurological deficits. Conclusions: This review draws conclusions from a limited amount of available literature, most of which are isolated case reports. Greater awareness of SILENT and further investigation into the risk factors and pathogenesis are required so this serious and irreversible syndrome may be avoided.

Keywords: lithium toxicity, pathogenesis, SILENT, syndrome of irreversible lithium-effectuated neurotoxicity

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Authors: Princess Ncube

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In the context of South Africa's banking sector, the prevention of bank failures is of paramount importance to ensure financial stability and economic growth. This paper focuses on the role of regulatory frameworks in safeguarding the resilience of South African banks and mitigating the risks of failures. It aims to assess the effectiveness of existing regulatory measures and proposes strategies to enhance the resilience of financial institutions in the country. The paper begins by examining the specific regulatory frameworks in place in South Africa, including capital adequacy requirements, stress testing methodologies, risk management guidelines, and supervisory practices. It delves into the evolution of these measures in response to lessons learned from past financial crises and their relevance in the unique South African banking landscape. Drawing on empirical evidence and case studies specific to South Africa, this paper evaluates the effectiveness of regulatory frameworks in preventing bank failures within the country. It analyses the impact of these frameworks on crucial aspects such as early detection of distress signals, improvements in risk management practices, and advancements in corporate governance within South African financial institutions. Additionally, it explores the interplay between regulatory frameworks and the specific economic environment of South Africa, including the role of macroprudential policies in preventing systemic risks. Based on the assessment, this paper proposes recommendations to strengthen regulatory frameworks and enhance their effectiveness in bank failure prevention in South Africa. It explores avenues for refining existing regulations to align capital requirements with the risk profiles of South African banks, enhancing stress testing methodologies to capture specific vulnerabilities, and fostering better coordination among regulatory authorities within the country. Furthermore, it examines the potential benefits of adopting innovative approaches, such as leveraging technology and data analytics, to improve risk assessment and supervision in the South African banking sector.

Keywords: banks, resolution, liquidity, regulation

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Authors: Andy Ho

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Breast cancer is a common cancer in Australia. Early diagnosis is crucial for improving patient outcomes, as later-stage detection correlates with poorer prognoses. While multiparametric MRI offers superior sensitivity in detecting invasive and high-grade breast cancers compared to conventional mammography, its extended scan duration and high costs limit widespread application. As a result, full protocol MRI screening is typically reserved for patients at elevated risk. Recent advancements in imaging technology have facilitated the development of Abbreviated MRI protocols, which dramatically reduce scan times (<10 minutes compared to >30 minutes for full protocol). The potential for Abbreviated MRI to offer a more time- and cost-efficient alternative has implications for improving patient accessibility, reducing appointment durations, and enhancing compliance—especially relevant for individuals requiring regular annual screening over several decades. The purpose of this study is to assess the diagnostic efficacy of Abbreviated MRI for breast cancer screening among high-risk patients at the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital (RPA). This study aims to determine the sensitivity, specificity, and inter-reader variability of Abbreviated MRI protocols when interpreted by subspecialty-trained Breast Radiologists. A systematic review of the RPA’s electronic Picture Archive and Communication System identified high-risk patients, defined by Australian ‘Medicare Benefits Schedule’ criteria, who underwent Breast MRI from 2021 to 2022. Eligible participants included asymptomatic patients under 50 years old referred by the High-Risk Clinic due to a high-risk genetic profile or relevant familial history. The MRIs were anonymized, randomized, and interpreted by four Breast Radiologists, each independently completing standardized proforma evaluations. Radiological findings were compared against histopathology as the gold standard or follow-up imaging if biopsies were unavailable. Statistical metrics, including sensitivity, specificity, and inter-reader variability, were assessed. The Fleiss-Kappa analysis demonstrated a fair inter-reader agreement (kappa = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.19–0.32; p < 0.0001). The sensitivity for detecting malignancies was 0.75, with a specificity of 0.84. These findings underline the potential of Abbreviated MRI as a reliable screening tool for malignancies with significant specificity, though reduced sensitivity highlights the importance of robust radiologist training and consistent evaluation standards. Abbreviated MRI protocols exhibit promise as a viable screening option for high-risk patients, combining reduced scan times and acceptable diagnostic accuracy. Further work to refine interpretation practices and optimize training is essential to maximize the protocol’s utility in routine clinical screening and facilitate broader accessibility.

Keywords: abbreviated, breast, cancer, MRI

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Authors: Lapatrada Numkham, Saowaluk Khakhong, Jeeraporn Kummabutr

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death in worldwide. Thailand also concerns and focuses on reduction a new case of these diseases. Community Health Volunteers (CHV) is important health personnel in primary health care and performs as a health leader in the community. If the health of CHV changes, it would impact on the performance to promote health of families and community. This cross-sectional study aimed to 1) describe the health status of community health volunteers and 2) examine the factors associated with health status among community health volunteers. The sample included 360 community health volunteers in a province in central Thailand during September-December 2014. Data were collected using questionnaires on health information, knowledge of health behaviors, and health behaviors. Body weight, height, waist circumference (WC), blood pressure (BP), and blood glucose (BS) (fingertip) were assessed. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square test. There were three hundred and sixty participants with 82.5% being women. The mean age was 54 + 8.9 years. Forty-seven percent of the participants had co-morbidities. Hypertension was the most common co-morbidity (26.7%). The results revealed that the health status of the volunteers included: no underlying disease, having risk of hypertension (HT) & diabetes mellitus (DM), and having HT&DM at 38.3%, 30.0%, and 31.7% respectively. The chi-square test revealed that the factors associated with health status among the volunteers were gender, age, WC and body mass index (BMI). The results suggested that community health nurses should; 1) implement interventions to decrease waist circumference and lose weight through education programs, especially females; 2) monitor people that have a risk of HT&DM and that have HT&DM by meeting and recording BP level, BS level, WC and BMI; and 3) collaborate with a district public health officer to initiate a campaign to raise awareness of the risks of chronic diseases among community health volunteers.

Keywords: community health volunteers, health status, risk of non-communicable disease, Thailand

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Authors: Lemu Abebe Geleta

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In this study, it compare the performance of banks and financial services (operational, financial, and market) across four major regions including Asia, Europe, Africa, and North with the extent of sustainability reporting. We examine how the Environment, Social, and Governance score (ESG) and the three pillars such as Return on Assets, Return on Equity, and Tobin's (Q) affect the performance of banks using data collected from 3450 observations across 40 different nations over ten years of (2011-2020). it also consider implications for governance, macroeconomics, and specific bank attributes. The results indicate a negative correlation between ESG and operational performance (ROA), financial performance (ROE), and market performance (TQ). The inclusion of diverse political and economic contexts lends distinctiveness to this paper. the findings hold significant theoretical implications for global scholars and policymakers. The limited correlation between ESG, its pillars, and the performance of banks and financial services underscores managerial shortcomings within these sectors.

Keywords: bank specialization, financial crisis, credit risk, difference-in-differences, herfindahl hirschman index

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Authors: Brennan Lodge

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Amidst a complex regulatory landscape, Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) emerges as a transformative tool for Governance Risk and Compliance (GRC) officers. This paper details the application of RAG in synthesizing Large Language Models (LLMs) with external knowledge bases, offering GRC professionals an advanced means to adapt to rapid changes in compliance requirements. While the development for standalone LLM’s (Large Language Models) is exciting, such models do have their downsides. LLM’s cannot easily expand or revise their memory, and they can’t straightforwardly provide insight into their predictions, and may produce “hallucinations.” Leveraging a pre-trained seq2seq transformer and a dense vector index of domain-specific data, this approach integrates real-time data retrieval into the generative process, enabling gap analysis and the dynamic generation of compliance and risk management content. We delve into the mechanics of RAG, focusing on its dual structure that pairs parametric knowledge contained within the transformer model with non-parametric data extracted from an updatable corpus. This hybrid model enhances decision-making through context-rich insights, drawing from the most current and relevant information, thereby enabling GRC officers to maintain a proactive compliance stance. Our methodology aligns with the latest advances in neural network fine-tuning, providing a granular, token-level application of retrieved information to inform and generate compliance narratives. By employing RAG, we exhibit a scalable solution that can adapt to novel regulatory challenges and cybersecurity threats, offering GRC officers a robust, predictive tool that augments their expertise. The granular application of RAG’s dual structure not only improves compliance and risk management protocols but also informs the development of compliance narratives with pinpoint accuracy. It underscores AI’s emerging role in strategic risk mitigation and proactive policy formation, positioning GRC officers to anticipate and navigate the complexities of regulatory evolution confidently.

Keywords: cybersecurity, gen AI, retrieval augmented generation, cybersecurity defense strategies

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Authors: E. Harrer, M. Mauerhofer, T. Werginz

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As a result of intensive competition, the building sector is suffering from a high degree of rivalry. Furthermore, there can be observed an unbalanced distribution of project risks. Clients are aimed to shift their own risks into the sphere of the constructors or planners. The consequence of this is that the number of conflicts between the involved parties is inordinately high or even increasing; an alternative approach to counter on that developments are cooperative project forms in the construction sector. This research compares conventional contract models and models with partnering agreements to examine the influence on project risks by an early integration of the involved parties. The goal is to show up deviations in different project stages from the design phase to the project transfer phase. These deviations are evaluated by a survey of experts from the three spheres: clients, contractors and planners. By rating the influence of the participants on specific risk factors it is possible to identify factors which are relevant for a smooth project execution.

Keywords: building projects, contract models, partnering, project risks

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Authors: Sulasmi Sudirman, Rachmadanty Mujah Hartika

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Traffic violence is currently a big issue in Indonesia. However, the road users perceived risk that is caused by traffic violence is low. The lack of safety driving awareness is one of the factors that road users committed to traffic violence. There are several lists of common traffic violence in Indonesia such as lack of physical fitness, not wearing helmet, unfasten seatbelt, breaking through the traffic light, not holding a driving license, and some more violence. This research sought to explore the perception of road users toward traffic violence. The participants were road users in Makassar, Indonesia who were using cars and motorbikes. The method of the research was a qualitative approach by using a personal interview to collect data. The research showed that there three main ideas of perceiving traffic violence which are motives, environment that supported traffic violence, and reinforcement. The road users committed traffic violence had particular motive, for example, rushing. The road users committed to traffic violence when other road users and significant other did the same. The road users committed traffic violence when the police were not there to give a ticket. It can be concluded that the perception of road users toward traffic violence determined by internal aspect, the social aspect, and regulation.

Keywords: perception, road users, traffic, violence

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody

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Authors: Laura A. Rodriguez-Villamizar, Alvaro Osornio-Vargas, Brian H. Rowe, Rhonda J. Rosychuk

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Introduction/Objectives: The Census Metropolitan Area of Edmonton (CMAE) has important industrial emissions to the air from the Industrial Heartland Alberta (IHA) at the Northeast and the coal-fired power plants (CFPP) at the West. The objective of the study was to explore the presence of clusters of children asthma ED visits in the areas around the IHA and the CFPP. Methods: Retrospective data on children asthma ED visits was collected at the dissemination area (DA) level for children between 2 and 14 years of age, living in the CMAE between April 1, 2004, and March 31, 2010. We conducted a spatial analysis of disease clusters around putative sources with count (ecological) data using descriptive, hypothesis testing, and multivariable modeling analysis. Results: The mean crude rate of asthma ED visits was 9.3/1,000 children population per year during the study period. Circular spatial scan test for cases and events identified a cluster of children asthma ED visits in the DA where the CFPP are located in the Wabamum area. No clusters were identified around the IHA area. The multivariable models suggest that there is a significant decline in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the CFPP area this effect is modified at the SE direction with mean angle 125.58 degrees, where the risk increases with distance. In contrast, the regression models for IHA suggest that there is a significant increase in risk for children asthma ED visits as distance increases around the IHA area and this effect is modified at SW direction with mean angle 216.52 degrees, where the risk increases at shorter distances. Conclusions: Different methods for detecting clusters of disease consistently suggested the existence of a cluster of children asthma ED visits around the CFPP but not around the IHA within the CMAE. These results are probably explained by the direction of the air pollutants dispersion caused by the predominant and subdominant wind direction at each point. The use of different approaches to detect clusters of disease is valuable to have a better understanding of the presence, shape, direction and size of clusters of disease around pollution sources.

Keywords: air pollution, asthma, disease cluster, industry

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Authors: Cangir Uyarlar, E. Eren Gultepe, I. Sadi Cetingul, Ismail Bayram

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This study was conducted to investigate the effect of humic acid (Potassium Humate) at different levels on rations on the effects of both maternal and offspring health, metabolic parameters and immunity levels in transition dairy cows. For this purpose, 50 Holstein dairy cows divided 5 trial groups. Experimental groups were designed as follows: A) Control (0% Humas); B) 0.5 Humas (0,5% in concentrated diet); C) 1 Humas (1% in concentrated diet), D) 1,5 Humas (1,5% in concentrated diet), E) 2 Humas (2% in concentrated diet), respectively. The study lasted from the first day of the dry period to postpartum 30th day. Diets were prepared as isocaloric and isonitrogenic. In the experiment, the day on which the animals gave birth was accepted as ‘0 (zero)’ and blood was taken from tail vein (v. coccygea) at -60, -53, -46, -39, -32, -25, -18, -11, -4, 0, ; Colostrum samples were taken on days 0, 1 and 2; Blood samples were taken on days 0, 1, 2, 15 and 30 from the juguler vein (v. jugularis) of the new born calves. Total blood leukocyte, Lymphocyte, Monocyte, granulocytes, Hemoglobin, Hematocrit, MCV, MCH, MWC, RDW, PLT, MPV, PDW, PCT, NEFA, BHBA, Glucose, Total Cholesterol , Triglyceride, LDL, HDL, VLDL, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and Total IgG levels and colostrum IgG levels were determined in this experiment. The results suggest that although the supplementation of humic acid at 2% level adversely affected to production parameters, the addition of humic acid (potassium humate) to the concentrate mix during the dry period (particularly 0.5 and 1% levels) may provide an increasing on mother and the offspring immunity, some improving on serum metabolism parameters and enhancing the milk production.

Keywords: humic acid, dairy cow, calf, immunity

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Authors: Stefanie Behncke

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This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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Authors: Anna Fowler

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When considering assets that may need protection, the mind begins to contemplate homes, cars, and investment funds. In most cases, the protection of those assets can be covered through security systems and insurance. Data is not the first thought that comes to mind that would need protection, even though data is at the core of most supply chain operations. It includes trade secrets, management of personal identifiable information (PII), and consumer data that can be used to enhance the overall experience. Data is considered a critical element of success for supply chains and should be one of the most critical areas to protect. In the supply chain industry, there are two major misconceptions about protecting data: (i) We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII). (ii) Reliance on Third-Party vendor security. These misconceptions can significantly derail organizational efforts to adequately protect data across environments. These statistics can be exciting yet overwhelming at the same time. The first misconception, “We do not manage or store confidential/personally identifiable information (PII)” is dangerous as it implies the organization does not have proper data literacy. Enterprise employees will zero in on the aspect of PII while neglecting trade secret theft and the complete breakdown of information sharing. To circumvent the first bullet point, the second bullet point forges an ideology that “Reliance on Third-Party vendor security” will absolve the company from security risk. Instead, third-party risk has grown over the last two years and is one of the major causes of data security breaches. It is important to understand that a holistic approach should be considered when protecting data which should not involve purchasing a Data Loss Prevention (DLP) tool. A tool is not a solution. To protect supply chain data, start by providing data literacy training to all employees and negotiating the security component of contracts with vendors to highlight data literacy training for individuals/teams that may access company data. It is also important to understand the origin of the data and its movement to include risk identification. Ensure processes effectively incorporate data security principles. Evaluate and select DLP solutions to address specific concerns/use cases in conjunction with data visibility. These approaches are part of a broader solutions framework called Data Security Assurance (DSA). The DSA Framework looks at all of the processes across the supply chain, including their corresponding architecture and workflows, employee data literacy, governance and controls, integration between third and fourth-party vendors, DLP as a solution concept, and policies related to data residency. Within cloud environments, this framework is crucial for the supply chain industry to avoid regulatory implications and third/fourth party risk.

Keywords: security by design, data security architecture, cybersecurity framework, data security assurance

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Authors: Timothy A. Oloyede

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The study assessed the influence of playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches, skill level and competition level on the occurrence and severity of football injuries. The prospective outline of the study was as follows: after a baseline examination and measurements were performed ascertaining possible predictors of injury, all players were followed up weekly for one year to register subsequent injuries and complaints. Four hundred and thirty-five out of 455 subjects completed the weekly follow-ups over one year. Multiple regression analysis was employed to analyse the data collected. Results showed that playing field, climatic conditions, rate of exposure to matches skill level and competition level were predictors of injuries among the professional footballer. Playing on natural grass, acclimatization, reduction of physical overload, among others, were strategies postulated for preventing injuries.

Keywords: sports’ injuries, predictors of sports’ injuries, intrinsic risk factors, extrinsic risk factors, injury mechanism, professional footballer

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Authors: Michelle Nighswander

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Suicide can be a tragic response to mental illness. It is difficult for people to disclose or discuss suicidal impulses. The stigma surrounding mental health can create a reluctance to seek help for mental illness. Patients may feel pressure to exhibit a socially desirable demeanor rather than reveal these issues, especially if they sense their healthcare provider is pressed for time or does not have an extensive history with their provider. Overcoming these barriers can be challenging. Although there are several validated depression and suicide risk instruments, varying processes used to administer these tools may impact the truthfulness of the responses. A literature review was conducted to find evidence of the impact of the environment on the accuracy of depression screening. Many investigations do not describe the environment and fewer studies use a comparison design. However, three studies demonstrated that computerized self-reporting might be more likely to elicit truthful and accurate responses due to increased privacy when responding compared to a face-to-face interview. These studies showed patients reported positive reactions to computerized screening for other stigmatizing health conditions such as alcohol use during pregnancy. Computerized self-screening for depression offers the possibility of more privacy and patient reflection, which could then send a targeted message of risk to the healthcare provider. This could potentially increase the accuracy while also increasing time efficiency for the clinic. Considering the persistent effects of mental health stigma, how these screening questions are posed can impact patients’ responses. This literature review analyzes trends in depression screening methodologies, the impact of setting on the results and how this may assist in overcoming one barrier caused by stigma.

Keywords: computerized self-report, depression, mental health stigma, suicide risk

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Authors: Wang Xue, Fan Liwei

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The trust and use of social network platforms by users are instrumental factors that contribute to the platform’s sustainable development. Studying the influential factors of the use of social network platforms is beneficial for developing and maintaining a large user base. This study constructed an extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) moderating model with perceived privacy risks to analyze the factors affecting the trust and use of social network platforms. 444 participants completed our 35 surveys, and we verified the survey results by structural equation model. Empirical results reveal the influencing factors that affect the trust and use of social network platforms, and the extended UTAUT2 model with perceived privacy risks increases the applicability of UTAUT2 in social network scenarios. Social networking platforms can increase their use rate by increasing the economics, functionality, entertainment, and privacy security of the platform.

Keywords: perceived privacy risk, social network, trust, use, UTAUT2 model

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Authors: Hedyeh Gamini, Hadi Abdus

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Tsunami, as a natural disaster, is composed of waves that are usually caused by severe movements at the sea floor. Although tsunami and its consequences cannot be prevented in any way, by examining past tsunamis and extracting key points on how to deal with this incident and learning from it, a positive step can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements and reduce the risk of this phenomenon in architecture and urbanism. The method is reviewing and has examined the documents written and valid internet sites related to managing and reducing the vulnerability of human settlements in face of tsunami. This paper has explored the tsunamis in Indonesia (2004), Sri Lanka (2004) and Japan (2011), and of the study objectives has been understanding how they dealt with tsunami and extracting key points, and the lessons from them in terms of reduction of vulnerability of human settlements in dealing with the tsunami. Finally, strategies to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk of tsunamis have been offered in terms of architecture and urban planning. According to what is obtained from the study of the recent tsunamis, the authorities' quality of dealing with them, how to manage the crisis and the manner of their construction, it can be concluded that to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements against tsunami, there are generally four ways that are: 1-Construction of tall buildings with opening on the first floor so that water can flow easily under and the direction of the building should be in a way that water passes easily from the side. 2- The construction of multi-purpose centers, which could be used as vertical evacuation during accidents. 3- Constructing buildings in core forms with diagonal orientation of the coastline, 4- Building physical barriers (natural and synthetic) such as water dams, mounds of earth, sea walls and creating forests

Keywords: tsunami, architecture, reducing vulnerability, human settlements, urbanism

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Authors: Sukalyan Chakraborty

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Arsenic contamination in groundwater has been a matter of serious concern worldwide. Globally, arsenic contaminated water has caused serious chronic human diseases and in the last few decades the transfer of arsenic to human beings via food chain has gained much attention because food represents a further potential exposure pathway to arsenic in instances where crops are irrigated with high arsenic groundwater, grown in contaminated fields or cooked with arsenic laden water. In the present study, the groundwater of Sahibganj district of Jharkhand has been analysed to find the degree of contamination and its probable associated risk due to direct consumption or irrigation. The present study area comprising of three blocks, namely Sahibganj, Rajmahal and Udhwa in Sahibganj district of Jharkhand state, India, situated in the western bank of river Ganga has been investigated for arsenic contamination in groundwater, soil and crops predominantly growing in the region. Associated physicochemical parameters of groundwater including pH, temperature, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), dissolved oxygen (DO), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), ammonium, nitrate and chloride were assessed to understand the mobilisation mechanism and chances of arsenic exposure from soil to crops and further into the food chain. Results suggested the groundwater to be dominantly Ca-HCO3- type with low redox potential and high total dissolved solids load. Major cations followed the order of Ca ˃ Na ˃ Mg ˃ K. The concentration of major anions was found in the order of HCO3− > Cl− > SO42− > NO3− > PO43− varied between 0.009 to 0.20 mg L-1. Fe concentrations of the groundwater samples were below WHO permissible limit varying between 54 to 344 µg L-1. Phosphate concentration was high and showed a significant positive correlation with arsenic. As concentrations ranged from 7 to 115 µg L-1 in premonsoon, between 2 and 98 µg L-1 in monsoon and 1 to 133µg L-1 in postmonsoon season. Arsenic concentration was found to be much higher than the WHO or BIS permissible limit in majority of the villages in the study area. Arsenic was also seen to be positively correlated with iron and phosphate. PCA results demonstrated the role of both geological condition and anthropogenic inputs to influence the water quality. Arsenic was also found to increase with depth up to 100 m from the surface. Calculation of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects of the arsenic concentration in the communities exposed to the groundwater for drinking and other purpose indicated high risk with an average of more than 1 in a 1000 population. Health risk analysis revealed high to very high carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk for adults and children in the communities dependent on groundwater of the study area. Observation suggested the groundwater to be considerably polluted with arsenic and posing significant health risk for the exposed communities. The mobilisation mechanism of arsenic also could be identified from the results suggesting reductive dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides due to high phosphate concentration from agricultural input arsenic release from the sediments along river Ganges.

Keywords: arsenic, physicochemical parameters, mobilisation, health effects

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Authors: John Gaber, Youssef Ahmed, Hossam A.Gabbar, Jing Ren

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Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) operators have a large responsibility on their shoulders. They must allow the plant to generate a high amount of energy while inspecting and maintaining the safety of the plant. This type of occupation comes with high amounts of mental fatigue, and a small mistake can have grave consequences. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a method of gathering the electromagnetic waves emitted by a human brain. We propose a safety system by monitoring brainwaves for signs of mental fatigue. This requires an analysis of the tasks and mental models of the NPP operator, as well as risk factors on mental fatigue and attention that NPP operators face when performing their tasks. The brain waves generated from experiencing mental fatigue can then be monitored for. These factors are analyzed, developing an EEG-based monitoring system, which aims to alert NPP operators when levels of mental fatigue and attention start affecting their performance in task completion.

Keywords: EEG, power plant operator, psychology, task analysis

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Seyed Bahman Ghaderian, Homeira Rashidi, Mahmoud Mapar

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Background and Objective The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered the most important public health threat of the 21st century. This syndrome is characterized by a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including increased central abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein, high blood pressure, increased fasting glucose, and hyperinsulinemia. MetS has been associated with hypogonadism and erectile dysfunction (ED), and MetS may be considered a risk factor for ED. The aim of this study was finding an association between metabolic syndrome and hypogonadism in Khouzestan, Iran. Subjects and Methods: In this study, 60 patients divided into two groups consisted of 30 cases (with metabolic syndrome) and 30 controls. Total and free Serum Testosterone and FBS in all of them were measured. Data was analyzed with SPSS20 program. Results: There was a significant difference between two groups about free Testosterone (P=0.01), FBS (P=0.002) and LH (P=0.03). Conclusion: According to this finding, it is thought the prevalence of hypogonadism in men with metabolic syndrome is more than the general population.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, fasting blood sugar, hypogonadism, testosterone

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Authors: Malgorzata Sekulowicz, Krystyna Boron-Krupinska, Paulina Morga, Blazej Cieslik

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Burnout is highly prevalent in health care employees, especially in physicians. It significantly reduces the efficiency of these employees, which can have negative consequences for both physicians and patients. Resilience and mindfulness enhancing positive emotions, leading to sustainable development and personal commitment, can have a significant impact on burnout. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the relationship between burnout symptoms and mindfulness and resilience among physicians. The authors conducted a cross-sectional survey study among seventy-four polish physicians. Participants filled out the following psychometric tools: the Maslach Burnout Inventory - Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS), Five Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ), Areas of Work-Life Survey (AWS), International Personality Item Pool (IPIP), the Resilience Assessment Scale (SPP-25) and the Mini-COPE Inventory. The relationship between burnout and resilience and mindfulness was assessed with path analysis. Analyzing the relationship between MBI-HSS components and mindfulness, a significant negative correlation of the FFMQ score with emotional exhaustion (-0.50, p < 0.05) and depersonalization (-0.43, p < 0.05) and a positive correlation with personal accomplishment (0.50, p < 0.05) was demonstrated. Analyzing resilience, a statistically significant relationship of SPP-25 with all tested components of MBI-HSS was demonstrated: emotional exhaustion (-0.54, p < 0.05), depersonalization (-0.31, p < 0.05) and personal accomplishment (0.35, p < 0.05). In the group of medical doctors, the higher the level of mindfulness and resilience, the lower the risk of burnout. Furthermore, the more frequently used active coping strategies (planning, acceptance), the lower the risk of burnout, while the use of passive, evasive strategies increases the risk of burnout. It may be worth considering implementing mindfulness intervention to effectively manage burnout symptoms in this group.

Keywords: burnout, medical doctors, mindfulness, physicians, resilience

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Authors: Jefferson Camacho Mejia, Jenny Paola Forero Pachon, Luis Carlos Gomez Florez

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The innumerable possibilities offered by the use of Information Technology (IT) in the development of different socio-economic activities has made a change in the social paradigm and the emergence of the so-called information and knowledge society. The Colombian government, aware of this reality, has been promoting the use of IT as part of the E-government strategy adopted in the country. However, it is well known that the use of IT implies the existence of certain threats that put the security of information in the digital environment at risk. One of the priorities of the Colombian government is to improve access to alternative justice through IT, in particular, access to Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR): conciliation, arbitration and friendly composition; by means of which it is sought that the citizens directly resolve their differences. To this end, a trend has been identified in the use of Online Dispute Resolution (ODR) systems, which extend the benefits of ADR to the digital environment through the use of IT. This article presents a process for the analysis of information security risks associated with the incorporation of ODR systems in the context of conciliation in Colombia, based on four fundamental stages identified in the literature: (I) Identification of assets, (II) Identification of threats and vulnerabilities (III) Estimation of the impact and 4) Estimation of risk levels. The methodological design adopted for this research was the grounded theory, since it involves interactions that are applied to a specific context and from the perspective of diverse participants. As a result of this investigation, the activities to be followed are defined to carry out an analysis of information security risks, in the context of the conciliation in Colombia supported by ODR systems, thus contributing to the estimation of the risks to make possible its subsequent treatment.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, conciliation, information security, online dispute resolution systems, process, risk analysis

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: P. Chang, C. Lopez, C. Burbano

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Flood protection zones are riparian buffers that are formed to manage and mitigate the impact of flooding, and in turn, protect local populations. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Guía Técnica de Criterios para el Acotamiento de las Rondas Hídricas in Colombia against international regulations in Canada and Spain, in order to determine its limitations and contribute to its improvement. The need to establish a specific corridor that allows for the dynamic development of a river is clear; however, limitations present in the Colombian Technical Guide are identified. The study shows that international regulations provide similar concepts as used in Colombia, but additionally integrate aspects such as regionalization that allows for a better characterization of the channel way, and incorporate the frequency of flooding and its probability of occurrence in the concept of risk when determining the protection zone. The case study analyzed in Dosquebradas - Risaralda aimed at comparing the application of the different standards through hydraulic modeling. It highlights that the current Colombian standard does not offer sufficient details in its implementation phase, which leads to a false sense of security related to inaccuracy and lack of data. Furthermore, the study demonstrates how the Colombian norm is ill-adapted to the conditions of Dosquebradas typical of the Andes region, both in the social and hydraulic aspects, and does not reduce the risk, nor does it improve the protection of the population. Our study considers it pertinent to include risk estimation as an integral part of the methodology when establishing protect flood zone, considering the particularity of water systems, as they are characterized by an heterogeneous natural dynamic behavior.

Keywords: environmental corridor, flood zone determination, hydraulic domain, legislation flood protection zone

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Authors: Hanan Badr, Fahad Manee, Rao Shashidhar, Omar Bayoumy

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Introduction: Hypertension is the major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and stroke and a universe leading cause of disability-adjusted life years and mortality. Adopting an unhealthy lifestyle is thought to be associated with developing hypertension regardless of predisposing genetic factors. This study aimed to examine the association between recreational physical activity (RPA), and sedentary behaviors with a risk of hypertension among ministry employees, where there is no role for occupational physical activity (PA), and to scrutinize participants’ time spent in RPA and sedentary behaviors on the working and weekend days. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among randomly selected 2562 employees working at ten randomly selected ministries in Kuwait. To have a representative sample, the proportional allocation technique was used to define the number of participants in each ministry. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data about participants' socio-demographic characteristics, health status, and their 24 hours’ time use during a regular working day and a weekend day. The time use covered a list of 20 different activities practiced by a person daily. The New Zealand Physical Activity Questionnaire-Short Form (NZPAQ-SF) was used to assess the level of RPA. The scale generates three categories according to the number of hours spent in RPA/week: relatively inactive, relatively active, and highly active. Gender-matched trained nurses performed anthropometric measurements (weight and height) and measuring blood pressure (two readings) using an automatic blood pressure monitor (95% accuracy level compared to a calibrated mercury sphygmomanometer). Results: Participants’ mean age was 35.3±8.4 years, with almost equal gender distribution. About 13% of the participants were smokers, and 75% were overweight. Almost 10% reported doctor-diagnosed hypertension. Among those who did not, the mean systolic blood pressure was 119.9±14.2 and the mean diastolic blood pressure was 80.9±7.3. Moreover, 73.9% of participants were relatively physically inactive and 18% were highly active. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure showed a significant inverse association with the level of RPA (means of blood pressure measures were: 123.3/82.8 among relatively inactive, 119.7/80.4 among relatively active, and 116.6/79.6 among highly active). Furthermore, RPA occupied 1.6% and 1.8% of working and weekend days, respectively, while sedentary behaviors (watching TV, using electronics for social media or entertaining, etc.) occupied 11.2% and 13.1%, respectively. Sedentary behaviors were significantly associated with high levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Binary logistic regression revealed that physical inactivity (OR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.25-4.35) and sedentary behaviors (OR=2.25, CI: 1.45-3.17) were independent risk factors for high systolic and diastolic blood pressure after adjustment for other covariates. Conclusions: Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyle were associated with a high risk of hypertension. Further research to examine the independent role of RPA in improving blood pressure levels and cultural and occupational barriers for practicing RPA are recommended. Policies should be enacted in promoting PA in the workplace that might help in decreasing the risk of hypertension among sedentary occupation workers.

Keywords: physical activity, sedentary behaviors, hypertension, workplace

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Authors: Dae Kyung Choi, Won Man Park, Kyungsoo Kim, Yoon Hyuk Kim

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The interspinous process devices have been recently used due to its advantages such as minimal invasiveness and less subsidence of the implant to the osteoporotic bone. In this paper, we have analyzed the influences of ligature tightening of several interspinous process devices using finite element analysis. Four types of interspinous process implants were inserted to the L3-4 spinal motion segment based on their surgical protocols. Inferior plane of L4 vertebra was fixed and 7.5 Nm of extension moment were applied on superior plane of L3 vertebra with 400N of compressive load along follower load direction and pretension of the ligature. The stability of the spinal unit was high enough than that of intact model. The higher value of pretension in the ligature led the decrease of dynamic stabilization effect in cases of the WallisTM, DiamTM, Viking, and Spear®. The results of present study could be used to evaluate surgical option and validate the biomechanical characteristics of the spinal implants.

Keywords: interspinous process device, bone fracture risk, lumbar spine, finite element analysis

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Authors: Xiaohan Bookman, Xiaoyan Zhu

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Margin-Based Principle has been proposed for a long time, it has been proved that this principle could reduce the structural risk and improve the performance in both theoretical and practical aspects. Meanwhile, feed-forward neural network is a traditional classifier, which is very hot at present with a deeper architecture. However, the training algorithm of feed-forward neural network is developed and generated from Widrow-Hoff Principle that means to minimize the squared error. In this paper, we propose a new training algorithm for feed-forward neural networks based on Margin-Based Principle, which could effectively promote the accuracy and generalization ability of neural network classifiers with less labeled samples and flexible network. We have conducted experiments on four UCI open data sets and achieved good results as expected. In conclusion, our model could handle more sparse labeled and more high-dimension data set in a high accuracy while modification from old ANN method to our method is easy and almost free of work.

Keywords: Max-Margin Principle, Feed-Forward Neural Network, classifier, structural risk

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Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

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Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

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