Search results for: prediction fatigue life

Authors: P. Byrnes, F. A. DiazDelaO

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The Support Vector Machine (SVM) has become widely recognised as one of the leading algorithms in machine learning for both regression and binary classification. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions, referred to as support vectors. Despite its popularity amongst practitioners, SVM has some limitations, with the most significant being the generation of point prediction as opposed to predictive distributions. Stemming from this issue, a probabilistic model namely, Probabilistic Classification Vector Machines (PCVM), has been proposed which respects the original functional form of SVM whilst also providing a predictive distribution. As physical system designs become more complex, an increasing number of classification tasks involving industrial applications consist of more than two classes. Consequently, this research proposes a framework which allows for the extension of PCVM to a multi class setting. Additionally, the original PCVM framework relies on the use of type II maximum likelihood to provide estimates for both the kernel hyperparameters and model evidence. In a high dimensional multi class setting, however, this approach has been shown to be ineffective due to bad scaling as the number of classes increases. Accordingly, we propose the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods to provide a posterior distribution over both parameters and hyperparameters. The proposed framework will be validated against current multi class classifiers through synthetic and real life implementations.

Keywords: probabilistic classification vector machines, multi class classification, MCMC, support vector machines

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Authors: Majid Zargar, Frank Bullen, Ron Ayers

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One of the important factors in the design of asphalt concrete mixes is the accurate measurement of air voids and their variable distribution. Both can have significant impact on long and short term fatigue and creep behaviour under traffic. While some simple methods exist for overall evaluation of air voids, measuring air void distribution in asphalt concrete is very complex, involving expensive techniques such as X-ray methodologies. The research reported in the paper investigated the use of non-destructive ultrasonic techniques as an alternative to estimate the amount of air voids and their distribution within asphalt samples. Seventy-four Standard AC–14 asphalt samples made with three types of bitumen; Multigrade, PMB and C320 were analysed using ultrasonic techniques. The results have illustrated that ultrasonic testing has the potential of being a rapid, accurate and cost-effective method of estimating air void distribution in asphalt.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, air voids, ultrasonic, mechanical behaviour

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Authors: Tien-Mei Hu

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Death is not only a physical event and a fact of life ending but also one of the ultimate issues of philosophy. The aerial acrobats’ dangerous nature and protective rope culture have kept the concept of death in this profession. This study aims to interpret the Taiwanese aerialists’ view of death through the philosophy of death, starting from the archetype of traditional Eastern body practices (aerial acrobatics). Five Taiwanese acrobats (two male and three female) were interviewed through a snowball approach. After the interviews, ATLAS.ti, a qualitative analysis software, was used to analyze the verbatim transcripts, photographs, and documents. The following three conclusions were drawn from this study: every performance by Taiwanese aerial acrobats is a life-threatening performance; Taiwanese aerialists’ perception of death changes with different life stages; Taiwanese aerialists’ philosophy of death is based on the heritage foundation of the "acrobatics" profession, which has created the phenomenon of not using safety equipment unique to Taiwanese aerialists.

Keywords: acrobatics, body culture, circus, tightrope walker

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Authors: Ahmed Alghurabi, Mysara Mohyaldinn, Shiferaw Jufar, Obai Younis, Abdullah Abduljabbar

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Erosion modeling equations were typically acquired from regulated experimental trials for solid particles entrained in single-phase or multi-phase flows. Evidently, those equations were later employed to predict the erosion damage caused by the continuous impacts of solid particles entrained in streamflow. It is also well-known that the particle impact angle and velocity do not change drastically in gas-sand flow erosion prediction; hence an accurate prediction of erosion can be projected. On the contrary, high-density fluid flows, such as water flow, through complex geometries, such as sand screens, greatly affect the sand particles’ trajectories/tracks and consequently impact the erosion rate predictions. Particle tracking models and erosion equations are frequently applied simultaneously as a method to improve erosion visualization and estimation. In the present work, computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based erosion modeling was performed using a commercially available software; ANSYS Fluent. The continuous phase (water flow) behavior was simulated using the realizable K-epsilon model, and the secondary phase (solid particles), having a 5% flow concentration, was tracked with the help of the discrete phase model (DPM). To accomplish a successful erosion modeling, three erosion equations from the literature were utilized and introduced to the ANSYS Fluent software to predict the screen wire-slot velocity surge and estimate the maximum erosion rates on the screen surface. Results of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, dissipation rate, the total pressure on the screen, screen wall shear stress, and flow velocity vectors were presented and discussed. Moreover, the particle tracks and path-lines were also demonstrated based on their residence time, velocity magnitude, and flow turbulence. On one hand, results from the utilized erosion equations have shown similarities in screen erosion patterns, locations, and DPM concentrations. On the other hand, the model equations estimated slightly different values of maximum erosion rates of the wire-wrapped screen. This is solely based on the fact that the utilized erosion equations were developed with some assumptions that are controlled by the experimental lab conditions.

Keywords: CFD simulation, erosion rate prediction, material loss due to erosion, water-sand flow

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Authors: Silvia Arrate, Waldo Salud, Eloy París

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The wear of cutting tools is one of the most decisive elements when planning tunneling works, programming the maintenance stops and saving the optimum stock of spare parts during the evolution of the excavation. Being able to predict the behavior of cutting tools can give a very competitive advantage in terms of costs and excavation performance, optimized to the needs of the TBM itself. The incredible evolution of data science in recent years gives the option to implement it at the time of analyzing the key and most critical parameters related to machinery with the purpose of knowing how the cutting head is performing in front of the excavated ground. Taking this as a case study, Metro Line 3 of Guadalajara in Mexico will develop the feasibility of using Specific Energy versus data science applied over parameters of Torque, Penetration, and Contact Force, among others, to predict the behavior and status of cutting tools. The results obtained through both techniques are analyzed and verified in the function of the wear and the field situations observed in the excavation in order to determine its effectiveness regarding its predictive capacity. In conclusion, the possibilities and improvements offered by the application of digital tools and the programming of calculation algorithms for the analysis of wear of cutting head elements compared to purely empirical methods allow early detection of possible damage to cutting tools, which is reflected in optimization of excavation performance and a significant improvement in costs and deadlines.

Keywords: cutting tools, data science, prediction, TBM, wear

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Authors: Muhammad Nur Hidayat, Muksalmina, Chairul Fajar

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An alternative to improve the quality of asphalt as a pavement material is to use modified asphalt with the addition of cocoa shell ash as a filler. This research aims to determine the effect of asphalt mixture and cocoa shell ash after testing the physical properties of asphalt. The method used was experimental by testing the physical properties of asphalt. The results showed that the optimum asphalt content of the cocoa husk ash mixture was 2%, with an asphalt penetration value of 60.03 mm. The result of the asphalt softening point test was 51.0°C. Asphalt ductility test results in 144 cm. Asphalt specific gravity test result 1.076 gr/ml. Asphalt weight loss test results in 0.0183%. In conclusion, cocoa shell ash has an effect on asphalt characteristics, namely increasing stability, flexibility and fatigue resistance.

Keywords: cocoa husk ash, asphalt characteristics, physical properties testing, filler

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Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

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For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

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Authors: Lim Chen Kim, Tan Kian Lam, Chan Yi Chee

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This research presents a multi-modal simulation in the reconstruction of the past and the construction of present in digital cultural heritage on mobile platform. In bringing the present life, the virtual environment is generated through a presented scheme for rapid and efficient construction of 360° panoramic view. Then, acoustical heritage model and crowd model are presented and improvised into the 360° panoramic view. For the reconstruction of past life, the crowd is simulated and rendered in an old trading port. However, the keystone of this research is in a virtual walkthrough that shows the virtual present life in 2D and virtual past life in 3D, both in an environment of virtual heritage sites in George Town through mobile device. Firstly, the 2D crowd is modelled and simulated using OpenGL ES 1.1 on mobile platform. The 2D crowd is used to portray the present life in 360° panoramic view of a virtual heritage environment based on the extension of Newtonian Laws. Secondly, the 2D crowd is animated and rendered into 3D with improved variety and incorporated into the virtual past life using Unity3D Game Engine. The behaviours of the 3D models are then simulated based on the enhancement of the classical model of Boid algorithm. Finally, a demonstration system is developed and integrated with the models, techniques and algorithms of this research. The virtual walkthrough is demonstrated to a group of respondents and is evaluated through the user-centred evaluation by navigating around the demonstration system. The results of the evaluation based on the questionnaires have shown that the presented virtual walkthrough has been successfully deployed through a multi-modal simulation and such a virtual walkthrough would be particularly useful in a virtual tour and virtual museum applications.

Keywords: Boid Algorithm, Crowd Simulation, Mobile Platform, Newtonian Laws, Virtual Heritage

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Julien Monnier, Isabelle Mouton, Francois Buy, Adrien Michel, Sylvain Ringeval, Joel Malaplate, Caroline Toffolon, Bernard Marini, Audrey Lechartier

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Chosen to design and assemble massive components for nuclear industry, the 316 Nb austenitic stainless steel (also called 316 Nb) suits well this function thanks to its mechanical, heat and corrosion handling properties. However, these properties might change during steel’s life due to thermal ageing causing changes within its microstructure. Our main purpose is to determine if the 316 Nb will keep its mechanical properties after an exposition to industrial temperatures (around 300 °C) during a long period of time (< 10 years). The 316 Nb is composed by different phases, which are austenite as main phase, niobium-carbides, and ferrite remaining from the ferrite to austenite transformation during the process. Our purpose is to understand thermal ageing effects on the material microstructure and properties and to submit a model predicting the evolution of 316 Nb properties as a function of temperature and time. To do so, based on Fe-Cr and 316 Nb phase diagrams, we studied the thermal ageing of 316 Nb steel alloys (1%v of ferrite) and welds (10%v of ferrite) for various temperatures (350, 400, and 450 °C) and ageing time (from 1 to 10.000 hours). Higher temperatures have been chosen to reduce thermal treatment time by exploiting a kinetic effect of temperature on 316 Nb ageing without modifying reaction mechanisms. Our results from early times of ageing show no effect on steel’s global properties linked to austenite stability, but an increase of ferrite hardness during thermal ageing has been observed. It has been shown that austenite’s crystalline structure (cfc) grants it a thermal stability, however, ferrite crystalline structure (bcc) favours iron-chromium demixion and formation of iron-rich and chromium-rich phases within ferrite. Observations of thermal ageing effects on ferrite’s microstructure were necessary to understand the changes caused by the thermal treatment. Analyses have been performed by using different techniques like Atomic Probe Tomography (APT) and Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC). A demixion of alloy’s elements leading to formation of iron-rich (α phase, bcc structure), chromium-rich (α’ phase, bcc structure), and nickel-rich (fcc structure) phases within the ferrite have been observed and associated to the increase of ferrite’s hardness. APT results grant information about phases’ volume fraction and composition, allowing to associate hardness measurements to the volume fractions of the different phases and to set up a way to calculate α’ and nickel-rich particles’ growth rate depending on temperature. The same methodology has been applied to DSC results, which allowed us to measure the enthalpy of α’ phase dissolution between 500 and 600_°C. To resume, we started from mechanical and macroscopic measurements and explained the results through microstructural study. The data obtained has been match to CALPHAD models’ prediction and used to improve these calculations and employ them to predict 316 Nb properties’ change during the industrial process.

Keywords: stainless steel characterization, atom probe tomography APT, vickers hardness, differential scanning calorimetry DSC, thermal ageing

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Authors: Rosemary Saunders, Courtney Glass, Karla Seaman, Karen Gullick, Julie Andrew, Anne Wilkinson, Ashwini Davray

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Current literature demonstrates that most Australians receive end-of-life care in a hospital setting, despite most hoping to die within their own home. The necessity for high quality end-of-life care has been emphasised by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care and the National Safety and Quality in Health Services Standards depict the requirement for comprehensive care at the end of life (Action 5.20), reinforcing the obligation for continual organisational assessment to determine if these standards are suitably achieved. Limited research exploring clinical staff perspectives of end-of-life care delivery has been conducted within an Australian private health context. This study aimed to investigate clinical staff member perceptions of end-of-life care delivery at a private hospital in Western Australia. The study comprised of a multi-faceted mixed-methods methodology, part of a larger study. Data was obtained from clinical staff utilising surveys and focus groups. A total of 133 questionnaires were completed by clinical staff, including registered nurses (61.4%), enrolled nurses (22.7%), allied health professionals (9.9%), non-palliative care consultants (3.8%) and junior doctors (2.2%). A total of 14.7% of respondents were palliative care ward staff members. Additionally, seven staff focus groups were conducted with physicians (n=3), nurses (n=26) and allied health professionals including social workers (n=1), dietitians (n=2), physiotherapists (n=5) and speech pathologists (n=3). Key findings from the surveys highlighted that the majority of staff agreed it was part of their role to talk to doctors about the care of patients who they thought may be dying, and recognised the importance of communication, appropriate training and support for clinical staff to provide quality end-of-life care. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data generated three key themes: creating the setting which highlighted the importance of adequate resourcing and conducive physical environments for end-of-life care and to support staff and families; planning and care delivery which emphasised the necessity for collaboration between staff, families and patients to develop care plans and treatment directives; and collaborating in end-of-life care, with effective communication and teamwork leading to achievable care delivery expectations. These findings contribute to health professionals better understanding of end-of-life care provision and the importance of collaborating with patients and families in care delivery. It is crucial that health care providers implement strategies to overcome gaps in care, so quality end-of-life care is provided. Findings from this study have been translated into practice, with the development and implementation of resources, training opportunities, support networks and guidelines for the delivery of quality end-of-life care.

Keywords: clinical staff, end-of-life care, mixed-methods, private hospital.

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Authors: Aya Effat, Ossama A. Hosny, Elkhayam M. Dorra

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Estimating costs is a crucial step in construction management and should be completed at the beginning of every project to establish the project's budget. The precision of the cost estimate plays a significant role in the success of construction projects as it allows project managers to effectively manage the project's costs. Site overhead costs constitute a significant portion of construction project budgets, necessitating accurate prediction and management. These costs are influenced by a multitude of factors, requiring a thorough examination and analysis to understand their relative importance and impact. Thus, the main aim of this research is to enhance the contractor’s ability to predict and manage site overheads by identifying and analyzing the main factors influencing the site overheads costs in the Egyptian construction industry. Through a comprehensive literature review, key factors were first identified and subsequently validated using a thorough comparative analysis of data from 55 real-life construction projects. Through this comparative analysis, the relationship between each factor and site overheads percentage as well as each site overheads subcategory and each project construction phase was identified and examined. Furthermore, correlation analysis was done to check for multicollinearity and identify factors with the highest impact. The findings of this research offer valuable insights into the key drivers of site overhead costs in the Egyptian construction industry. By understanding these factors, construction professionals can make informed decisions regarding the estimation and management of site overhead costs.

Keywords: comparative analysis, cost estimation, construction management, site overheads

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Authors: B. V. Santos, M. T. M. Carvalho, J. H. S. Rêgo

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The article presents a literature review on recent advances related to studies of the environmental impact of road pavements, with reference to the concepts of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). An introduction with the main motivations for the development of the research is presented, with a current overview of the Brazilian transport infrastructure and the projections for the road mode for the coming years, and the possibility of using the referred methodology by the road sector in Brazil. The article explores the origin of LCA in road pavements and the details linked to its implementation from the perspective of the four main phases of the study (goal and scope definition, inventory analysis, impact assessment, and interpretation). Finally, the main advances and deficiencies observed in the selected studies are gathered, with the proposition of research fields that can be explored in future national or international studies of LCA of road pavements.

Keywords: Brazil, life cycle assessment, road pavements, sustainable

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Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

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Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

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Authors: Debasis Sengupta, Sudipta Das

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The class of life distributions with decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) is well known in the field of reliability modeling. It contains the IFR class of distributions and is contained in the NBUE class of distributions. While upper and lower bounds of the reliability distribution function of aging classes such as IFR, IFRA, NBU, NBUE, and HNBUE have discussed in the literature for a long time, there is no analogous result available for the DMRL class. We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the reliability function of the DMRL class in terms of first order finite moment. The lower bound is obtained by showing that for any fixed time, the minimization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean is equivalent to its minimization over a smaller class of distribution with a special form. Optimization over this restricted set can be made algebraically. Likewise, the maximization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean turns out to be a parametric optimization problem over the class of DMRL distributions of a special form. The constructive proofs also establish that both the upper and lower bounds are sharp. Further, the DMRL upper bound coincides with the HNBUE upper bound and the lower bound coincides with the IFR lower bound. We also prove that a pair of sharp upper and lower bounds for the reliability function when the distribution is increasing mean residual life (IMRL) with a fixed mean. This result is proved in a similar way. These inequalities fill a long-standing void in the literature of the life distribution modeling.

Keywords: DMRL, IMRL, reliability bounds, hazard functions

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Authors: Srisuporn Piyaratanawong, Suchai Assawapantanakul

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This study aims to reflect changes in beliefs and rituals among the Urak Lawoi sea gypsies on the Bulon archipelago of Satun Province that are related to changes of society according to each dimension of time. The historical study was conducted using an oral history approach. The study found that the traditional way of life as itinerants who moved seasonally resulted in their dependence on nature and beliefs in supernatural power, and mysterious powers and superstitions in the belief of ghosts, ancestors, guardian spirits, large banyan trees, life and living, treatment of diseases, king of nagas, and other beliefs. They displayed their respect to supernatural powers through rituals by worshiping, making offerings to spirits and performing Rongeng dance for spirits in return for fulfilling their vows. After World War II (1945), the Urak Lawoi sea gypsies on Bulon archipelago changed their itinerant way of life to permanent settlements. However, their beliefs in supernatural powers and ritual performances remained in existence. Until 1987, when tourism began to spread to the archipelago, some of them gradually turned to make a living with tourism. Moreover, during the last 20 years (from around 1994), Islam has spread among the people. With this social context, the traditional beliefs in supernatural powers have changed to beliefs according to the religion and the way of life that has changed. Thus, when the traditional beliefs and rituals can no longer fulfil the new way of life, they slowly disappear, such as the floating the boat ceremony that has been replaced with new beliefs and rituals according to Islam. Nevertheless, some beliefs and rituals still exist, such as beliefs about treatment of diseases and Rongeng dance for spirits in return for vow fulfilling. In conclusion, the traditional beliefs and rituals of the Urak Lawoi sea gypsies on the Bulon archipelago cannot fulfil the new way of life, and have, thus, brought about changes in beliefs and rituals that are congruent with the current society.

Keywords: belief, ritual, Urak Lawoi, sea gypsy, Bulon Archipelago

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Kyna Elliott

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The COVID-19 global pandemic has changed the shape, design, and delivery of education. As communities continue to fight the pandemic, research suggests the coronavirus is leaving an indelible mark on education which will last long after the pandemic has ended. Faculty and students bring more than their textbooks into the classroom. They bring their lived experiences into the classroom, and it is through these lived experiences that interactions and learning filter through. The COVID-19 pandemic has proved to be a traumatic experience for many. Leaders will need to have the tools and skills to mitigate trauma's impact on faculty and students. This presentation will explore research-based trauma-informed leadership practices, pedagogy, and mitigation strategies within secondary school environments.

Keywords: COVID-19, compassion fatigue, educational leadership, the science of trauma, trauma-informed leadership, trauma-informed pedagogy

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Authors: João Filipe Papel, Tatsuji Munaka

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With society's aging and the number of elderly with dementia rising, researchers have been actively studying how to support the elderly in the early stages of dementia with the objective of allowing them to have a better life quality and as much as possible independence. To make this possible, most researchers in this field are using the Internet Of Things to monitor the elderly activities and assist them in performing them. The most common sensor used to monitor the elderly activities is the Camera sensor due to its easy installation and configuration. The other commonly used sensor is the sound sensor. However, we need to consider privacy when using these sensors. This research aims to develop a system capable of predicting the early stages of dementia based on monitoring and controlling the elderly activities of daily living. To make this system possible, some issues need to be addressed. First, the issue related to elderly privacy when trying to detect their Activities of Daily Living. Privacy when performing detection and monitoring Activities of Daily Living it's a serious concern. One of the purposes of this research is to achieve this detection and monitoring without putting the privacy of the elderly at risk. To make this possible, the study focuses on using an approach based on using Magnet Sensors to collect binary data. The second is to use the data collected by monitoring Activities of Daily Living to predict the early stages of Dementia. To make this possible, the research team suggests developing a proprietary ontology combined with both data-driven and knowledge-driven.

Keywords: dementia, activity recognition, magnet sensors, ontology, data driven and knowledge driven, IoT, activities of daily living

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Authors: Hayfa Almutary, Noof Eid Al Shammari

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Aim: The management of depression in patients undergoing hemodialysis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a breathing training program on quality of life and depression among patients on hemodialysis. Design: A one-group pretest-posttest quasi-experimental design was used. Methods: Data were collected from hemodialysis units at three dialysis centers. Initial baseline data were collected, and a breathing training program was implemented. The breathing training program included three types of breathing exercises. The impact of the intervention on outcomes was measured using both the Kidney Disease Quality of Life Short Version and the Beck Depression Inventory-Second Edition from the same participants. The participants were asked to perform the breathing training program three times a day for 30 days. Results: The mean age of the patients was 52.1 (SD:15.0), with nearly two-thirds of them being male (63.4%). Participants who were undergoing hemodialysis for 1–4 years constituted the largest number of the sample (46.3%), and 17.1% of participants had visited a psychiatric clinic 1-3 times. The results show that the breathing training program improved overall quality of life and reduced symptoms and problems. In addition, a significant decrease in the overall depression score was observed after implementing the intervention. Conclusions: The breathing training program is a non-pharmacological intervention that has proven visible effectiveness in hemodialysis. This study demonstrated that using breathing exercises reduced depression levels and improved quality of life. The integration of this intervention in dialysis units to manage psychological issues will offer a simple, safe, easy, and inexpensive intervention. Future research should compare the effectiveness of various breathing exercises in hemodialysis patients using longitudinal studies. Impact: As a safety precaution, nurses should initially use non-pharmacological interventions, such as a breathing training program, to treat depression in those undergoing hemodialysis.

Keywords: breathing training program, depression, exercise, quality of life, hemodialysis

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Authors: Koe Han Beng, Khoo Boo Cheong

Abstract:

The rising interest of stepped hull design has been led by the demand of more efficient high-speed boat. At the same time, the need of accurate prediction method for stepped planing hull is getting more important. By understanding the flow at high Froude number is the key in designing a practical step hull, the study surrounding stepped hull has been done mainly in the towing tank which is time-consuming and costly for initial design phase. Here the feasibility of predicting hydrodynamics of high-speed planing hull both with and without step using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the volume of fluid (VOF) methodology is studied in this work. First the flow around the prismatic body is analyzed, the force generated and its center of pressure are compared with available experimental and empirical data from the literature. The wake behind the transom on the keel line as well as the quarter beam buttock line are then compared with the available data, this is important since the afterbody flow of stepped hull is subjected from the wake of the forebody. Finally the calm water performance prediction of a conventional planing hull and its stepped version is then analyzed. Overset mesh methodology is employed in solving the dynamic equilibrium of the hull. The resistance, trim, and heave are then compared with the experimental data. The resistance is found to be predicted well and the dynamic equilibrium solved by the numerical method is deemed to be acceptable. This means that computational fluid dynamics will be very useful in further study on the complex flow around stepped hull and its potential usage in the design phase.

Keywords: planing hulls, stepped hulls, wake shape, numerical simulation, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Adekunle Saheed Ajisebiyawo, Christie Omoduwa Achime

Abstract:

In Nigerian society, women have very little or no involvement in the decision-making process and this is large because women are objectified as effective means of reproduction and provision of emotional support to the society. Despite the movements and awareness by international, national and local bodies to promote and encourage women's empowerment, there are still many factors daunting to the efforts of women in society. This paper examined the critical role of feminism in the quest for women's emancipation in public life. Guided by African feminism theory, this paper utilizes both historical and descriptive methods to examine these factors. The paper argues that gender bias in Nigeria's public life is often traced to the onset of colonialism in Nigeria. Thus the Western cultural notion of colonialism woven around male superiority is reflected in their relations with Nigerians. The study outlines how women have strategized pathways through patriarchal structures by deploying their femininity. The paper concludes that women are strong, courageous, natural leaders and indeed have a major strategic role to play in public life; thus, women's movements and groups remain an important and necessary means of social cohesion and strength, especially in a country such as Nigeria.

Keywords: African feminism, democratic governance, feminism, patriarchy, women emancipation.

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Authors: Romella C. Lina, Matthew Daniel V. Leysa, Zarah D. F. Libozada, Maria Francesca I. Lirio, Angelo A. Liwag, Gabriel D. Ramos, Margaret M. Natividad

Abstract:

This study aimed to determine the effectiveness of Buteyko Method in asthma control and quality of life of school-age children wherein a pretest-posttest design was utilized to measure the changes after the administration of Buteyko Method. Fourteen (14) subjects with bronchial asthma, aged 7-11 participated in the study. They were equally divided into two groups: the control group received no intervention while the experimental group was asked to attend sessions of Buteyko Method lecture and demonstration. The experimental group was visited for three (3) consecutive weeks to monitor their progress and compliance. Both groups were asked to answer ACQ pre- and post-intervention and PAQLQ before the start of the intervention phase and every week during the follow-up visits. In comparing the asthma control pre-test and post-test mean scores of the control group, no significant difference was noted (p=0.177) while the experimental group showed a significant difference after the administration of Buteyko Method (p=0.002). Moreover, the quality of life pre-test and post-test mean scores of the control group showed no significant difference in any week within one month of follow-up (p=0.736, 0.604, 0.689) while the experimental group showed a significant difference on the third week (p = 0.035) and fourth week (p=0.002) but no significant difference on the second week (p=0.111). Therefore, the use of Buteyko Method within 3-4 weeks as an adjunct to conventional management of asthma helps in improving asthma control and quality of life of school-age children.

Keywords: Buteyko Method, asthma, school-age children, asthma control, quality of life

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Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

Abstract:

Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

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Authors: Manuela Villani, Anila Xhahysa, Christopher Brooks, Marco Pagani

Abstract:

The geological structure of Western Balkans is strongly affected by the collision between Adria microplate and the southwestern Euroasia margin, resulting in a considerably active seismic region. The Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project (BSHAP) (2007-2011, 2012-2015) by NATO supported the preparation of new seismic hazard maps of the Western Balkan, but when inspecting the seismic hazard models produced later by these countries on a national scale, significant differences in design PGA values are observed in the border, for instance, North Albania-Montenegro, South Albania- Greece, etc. Considering the fact that the catalogues were unified and seismic sources were defined within BSHAP framework, obviously, the differences arise from the Ground Motion Prediction Equations selection, which are generally the component with highest impact on the seismic hazard assessment. At the time of the project, a modest database was present, namely 672 three-component records, whereas nowadays, this strong motion database has increased considerably up to 20,939 records with Mw ranging in the interval 3.7-7 and epicentral distance distribution from 0.47km to 490km. Statistical analysis of the strong motion database showed the lack of recordings in the moderate-to-large magnitude and short distance ranges; therefore, there is need to re-evaluate the Ground Motion Prediction Equation in light of the recently updated database and the new generations of GMMs. In some cases, it was observed that some events were more extensively documented in one database than the other, like the 1979 Montenegro earthquake, with a considerably larger number of records in the BSHAP Analogue SM database when compared to ESM23. Therefore, the strong motion flat-file provided from the Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps in the Western Balkan Countries Project was merged with the ESM23 database for the polygon studied in this project. After performing the preliminary residual analysis, the candidate GMPE-s were identified. This process was done using the GMPE performance metrics available within the SMT in the OpenQuake Platform. The Likelihood Model and Euclidean Distance Based Ranking (EDR) were used. Finally, for this study, a GMPE logic tree was selected and following the selection of candidate GMPEs, model weights were assigned using the average sample log-likelihood approach of Scherbaum.

Keywords: residual analysis, GMPE, western balkan, strong motion, openquake

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Authors: María de los Ángeles Zárate López, Juan Antonio Pitones Rubio

Abstract:

Quality of life and sustainability in cities are among the most important challenges faced by designers, city planners and urban managers. The Mexican city of Tijuana has a particular dynamic in its demographics which has been accelerated by its border city condition, putting to the test the ability from authorities to provide the population with the necessary services to aspire for a deserving quality of life. In the recent story of Tijuana, we found that the housing policy and the solutions presented by private housing developers have not met the best living conditions for end users by far, thereby adding issues to current social problems which impact the whole metropolitan area, including damage to the natural environment. Therefore this research presents the case study about the situation of a suburban housing development near Tijuana named “Villa del Campo” and exposes the problems of this specific project (originally labelled as a “sustainable” proposal) demonstrating that, once built, the place does not reflect the quality of life that it promised as a project. Currently, this housing development has a number of problematic issues such as the faulty operating conditions of public utilities and serious cases of crime inside the neighborhood. There is no intention to only expose the negative side of this case study, but to explore some alternatives which could help solving the most serious problems at the place, considering possible architectural and landscape interventions within the housing complex to help achieve the optimal conditions of livability and sustainability required by their inhabitants.

Keywords: suburban, housing, quality of life, sustainability, Tijuana, demographics

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Authors: Subhan Ahmad, Pradeep Bhargava, Ajay Chourasia

Abstract:

Shear failure in reinforced concrete beams without shear reinforcement leads to loss of property and life since a very little or no warning occurs before failure as in case of flexural failure. Shear strength of reinforced concrete beams decreases as its depth increases. This phenomenon is generally called as the size effect. In this paper, a comparative analysis is performed to estimate the performance of shear strength models in capturing the size effect of reinforced concrete beams made with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete. Four shear strength models that account for the size effect in shear are selected from the literature and applied on the datasets of slender reinforced concrete beams. Beams prepared with conventional concrete, self-compacting concrete, and recycled aggregate concrete are considered for the analysis. Results showed that all the four models captured the size effect in shear effectively and produced conservative estimates of the shear strength for beams made with normal strength conventional concrete. These models yielded unconservative estimates for high strength conventional concrete beams with larger effective depths ( > 450 mm). Model of Bazant and Kim (1984) captured the size effect precisely and produced conservative estimates of shear strength of self-compacting concrete beams at all the effective depths. Also, shear strength models considered in this study produced unconservative estimates of shear strength for recycled aggregate concrete beams at all effective depths.

Keywords: reinforced concrete beams; shear strength; prediction models; size effect

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Authors: Fernanda F. Zimmermann, Beverley Burrell, Jennifer Jordan

Abstract:

Introduction: Supportive care for people affected by cancer is recognised as a priority for research but yet there is little solid evidence of the effectiveness of psychological treatments for those with advanced cancer. The literature suggests that mindfulness-based interventions may be acceptable and beneficial for this population. This study aims to develop a mindfulness intervention to provide emotional support for advanced cancer population. The treatment package includes mindfulness meditation, developing an acceptance attitude and reflections on meaning in life. Methods: This study design is a one-group pre-post test with a mixed methods approach. Participants are recruited through public and private hospitals in Christchurch, NZ. Quantitative measures are the Acceptance and Action Questionnaire-II, Mindful Coping Scale and, the Meaning in Life Questionnaire. Qualitative semi-structured interviews enquire about emotional support before and after the diagnosis, participants’ thoughts about meaning in life, expectations and reflections on the mindfulness training. Qualitative data will be analysed using thematic analysis. Treatment consists of one to one 30 minutes session weekly for 4 weeks using a pre-recorded CD/podcast of the mindfulness training. This research is part of the presenter’s PhD study. Findings: This project is currently underway. The presenter will provide preliminary data on the acceptability of the mindfulness training package being delivered to participants along with the recruitment strategies. We anticipate that this novel treatment used as a self-management tool will reduce psychological distress and enable better coping for patients with advanced cancer.

Keywords: acceptance, cancer, meaning in life, mindfulness

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Authors: Jureerat Buakaew

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to investigate Thai Muslims’ way of life through the way their clothes. The data of this qualitative research were collected from related documents and research reports, ancient cloths and clothing, and in-depth interviews with clothes owners and weavers. The research found that in the 18th century Thai Muslims in the three southern border provinces used many types of clothing in their life. At home women wore plain clothes. They used checked cloths to cover the upper part of their body from the breasts down to the waist. When going out, they used Lima cloth and So Kae with a piece of Pla-nging cloth as a head scarf. For men, they wore a checked sarong as a lower garment, and wore no upper garment. However, when going out, they wore Puyo Potong. In addition, Thai Muslims used cloths in various religious rites, namely, the rite of placing a baby in a cradle, the Masoyawi rite, the Nikah rite, and the burial rite. These types of cloths were related to the way of life of Thai Muslims from birth to death. They reflected the race, gender, age, social status, values, and beliefs in traditions that have been inherited. Practical Implication: Woven in these cloths are the lost local wisdom, and therefore, aesthetics on the cloths are like mirrors reflecting the background of people in this region that is fading away. These cloths are pages of a local history book that is of importance and value worth for preservation and publicity so that they are treasured. Government organizations can expand and materialize the knowledge received from the study in accordance with government policy in supporting the One Tambon, One Product project.

Keywords: way of life, rite of placing a baby in a cradle, Masoyawi rite, Thai Muslims

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Authors: Naz Najma, Grace T. M. Dal Sasso, Maria de Lourdes de Souza

Abstract:

The development of information and communication technologies and the accessibility of mobile devices has increased the possibilities of the teaching and learning process anywhere and anytime. Mobile and web application allows the production of constructive teaching and learning models in various educational settings, showing the potential for active learning in nursing. The objective of this study was to present the development of an educational technology (Savinglife®, an app) for learning cardiopulmonary resuscitation and advanced cardiovascular life support training. Savinglife® is a technological production, based on the concept of virtual learning and problem-based learning approach. The study was developed from January 2016 to November 2016, using five phases (analyze, design, develop, implement, evaluate) of the instructional systems development process. The technology presented 10 scenarios and 12 simulations, covering different aspects of basic and advanced cardiac life support. The contents can be accessed in a non-linear way leaving the students free to build their knowledge based on their previous experience. Each scenario is presented through interactive tools such as scenario description, assessment, diagnose, intervention and reevaluation. Animated ECG rhythms, text documents, images and videos are provided to support procedural and active learning considering real life situation. Accessible equally on small to large devices with or without an internet connection, Savinglife® offers a dynamic, interactive and flexible tool, placing students at the center of the learning process. Savinglife® can contribute to the student’s learning in the assessment and management of basic and advanced cardiac life support in a safe and ethical way.

Keywords: problem-based learning, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, nursing education, advanced cardiac life support, educational technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 308