Search results for: second order modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15137

Search results for: second order modelling

767 Stability Assessment of Underground Power House Encountering Shear Zone: Sunni Dam Hydroelectric Project (382 MW), India

Authors: Sanjeev Gupta, Ankit Prabhakar, K. Rajkumar Singh

Abstract:

Sunni Dam Hydroelectric Project (382 MW) is a run of river type development with an underground powerhouse, proposed to harness the hydel potential of river Satluj in Himachal Pradesh, India. The project is located in the inner lesser Himalaya between Dhauladhar Range in the south and the higher Himalaya in the north. The project comprises two large underground caverns, a Powerhouse cavern (171m long, 22.5m wide and 51.2m high) and another transformer hall cavern (175m long, 18.7m wide and 27m high) and the rock pillar between the two caverns is 50m. The highly jointed, fractured, anisotropic rock mass is a key challenge in Himalayan geology for an underground structure. The concern for the stability of rock mass increases when weak/shear zones are encountered in the underground structure. In the Sunni Dam project, 1.7m to 2m thick weak/shear zone comprising of deformed, weak material with gauge has been encountered in powerhouse cavern at 70m having dip direction 325 degree and dip amount 38 degree which also intersects transformer hall at initial reach. The rock encountered in the powerhouse area is moderate to highly jointed, pink quartz arenite belonging to the Khaira Formation, a transition zone comprising of alternate grey, pink & white quartz arenite and shale sequence and dolomite at higher reaches. The rock mass is intersected by mainly 3 joint sets excluding bedding joints and a few random joints. The rock class in powerhouse mainly varies from poor class (class IV) to lower order fair class (class III) and in some reaches, very poor rock mass has also been encountered. To study the stability of the underground structure in weak/shear rock mass, a 3D numerical model analysis has been carried out using RS3 software. Field studies have been interpreted and analysed to derive Bieniawski’s RMR, Barton’s “Q” class and Geological Strength Index (GSI). The various material parameters, in-situ characteristics have been determined based on tests conducted by Central Soil and Materials Research Station, New Delhi. The behaviour of the cavern has been studied by assessing the displacement contours, major and minor principal stresses and plastic zones for different stage excavation sequences. For optimisation of the support system, the stability of the powerhouse cavern with different powerhouse orientations has also been studied. The numerical modeling results indicate that cavern will not likely face stress governed by structural instability with the support system to be applied to the crown and side walls.

Keywords: 3D analysis, Himalayan geology, shear zone, underground power house

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766 Nigeria’s Terrorists RehabIlitation And Reintegration Policy: A Victimological Perspective

Authors: Ujene Ikem Godspower

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Acts of terror perpetrated either by state or non-state actors are considered a social ill and impugn on the collective well-being of the society. As such, there is the need for social reparations, which is meant to ensure the healing of the social wounds resulting from the atrocities committed by errant individuals under different guises. In order to ensure social closure and effectively repair the damages done by anomic behaviors, society must ensure that justice is served and those whose rights and privileges have been denied and battered are given the necessary succour they deserve. With regards to the ongoing terrorism in the Northeast, the moves to rehabilitate and reintegrate Boko Haram members have commenced with the establishment of Operation Safe Corridor,1 and a proposed bill for the establishment of “National Agency for the Education, Rehabilitation, De-radicalisation and Integration of Repentant Insurgents in Nigeria”2. All of which Nigerians have expressed mixed feelings about. Some argue that the endeavor is lacking in ethical decency and justice and totally insults human reasoning. Terrorism and counterterrorism in Nigeria have been enmeshed in gross human rights violations both by the military and the terrorists, and this raises the concern of Nigeria’s ability to fairly and justiciably implement the deradicalization and reintegration efforts. On the other hand, there is the challenge of the community dwellers that are victims of terrorism and counterterrorism and their ability to forgive and welcome back their immediate-past tormentors even with the slightest sense of injustice in the process of terrorists reintegration and rehabilitation. With such efforts implemented in other climes, the Nigeria’s case poses a unique challenge and commands keen interests by stakeholders and the international community due to the aforementioned reasons. It is therefore pertinent to assess the communities’ level of involvement in the cycle of reintegration- hence, the objective of this paper. Methodologically as a part of my larger PhD thesis, this study intends to explore the three different local governments (Michika in Adamawa, Chibok in Borno, and Yunusari in Yobe), all based on the intensity of terrorists attacks. Twenty five in-depth interview will be conducted in the study locations above featuring religious leaders, Community (traditional) leaders, Internally displaced persons, CSOs management officials, and ex-Boko Haram insurgents who have been reintegrated. The data that will be generated from field work will be analyzed using the Nvivo-12 software package, which will help to code and create themes based on the study objectives. Furthermore, the data will be content-analyzed, employing verbatim quotations where necessary. Ethically, the study will take into consideration the basic ethical principles for research of this nature. It will strictly adhere to the principle of voluntary participation, anonymity, and confidentiality.

Keywords: boko haram, reintegration, rehabilitation, terrorism, victimology

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765 Methodology to Assess the Circularity of Industrial Processes

Authors: Bruna F. Oliveira, Teresa I. Gonçalves, Marcelo M. Sousa, Sandra M. Pimenta, Octávio F. Ramalho, José B. Cruz, Flávia V. Barbosa

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The EU Circular Economy action plan, launched in 2020, is one of the major initiatives to promote the transition into a more sustainable industry. The circular economy is a popular concept used by many companies nowadays. Some industries are better forwarded to this reality than others, and the tannery industry is a sector that needs more attention due to its strong environmental impact caused by its dimension, intensive resources consumption, lack of recyclability, and second use of its products, as well as the industrial effluents generated by the manufacturing processes. For these reasons, the zero-waste goal and the European objectives are further being achieved. In this context, a need arises to provide an effective methodology that allows to determine the level of circularity of tannery companies. Regarding the complexity of the circular economy concept, few factories have a specialist in sustainability to assess the company’s circularity or have the ability to implement circular strategies that could benefit the manufacturing processes. Although there are several methodologies to assess circularity in specific industrial sectors, there is not an easy go-to methodology applied in factories aiming for cleaner production. Therefore, a straightforward methodology to assess the level of circularity, in this case of a tannery industry, is presented and discussed in this work, allowing any company to measure the impact of its activities. The methodology developed consists in calculating the Overall Circular Index (OCI) by evaluating the circularity of four key areas -energy, material, economy and social- in a specific factory. The index is a value between 0 and 1, where 0 means a linear economy, and 1 is a complete circular economy. Each key area has a sub-index, obtained through key performance indicators (KPIs) regarding each theme, and the OCI reflects the average of the four sub-indexes. Some fieldwork in the appointed company was required in order to obtain all the necessary data. By having separate sub-indexes, one can observe which areas are more linear than others. Thus, it is possible to work on the most critical areas by implementing strategies to increase the OCI. After these strategies are implemented, the OCI is recalculated to check the improvements made and any other changes in the remaining sub-indexes. As such, the methodology in discussion works through continuous improvement, constantly reevaluating and improving the circularity of the factory. The methodology is also flexible enough to be implemented in any industrial sector by adapting the KPIs. This methodology was implemented in a selected Portuguese small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) tannery industry and proved to be a relevant tool to measure the circularity level of the factory. It was witnessed that it is easier for non-specialists to evaluate circularity and identify possible solutions to increase its value, as well as learn how one action can impact their environment. In the end, energetic and environmental inefficiencies were identified and corrected, increasing the sustainability and circularity of the company. Through this work, important contributions were provided, helping the Portuguese SMEs to achieve the European and UN 2030 sustainable goals.

Keywords: circular economy, circularity index, sustainability, tannery industry, zero-waste

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764 Combustion Characteristics and Pollutant Emissions in Gasoline/Ethanol Mixed Fuels

Authors: Shin Woo Kim, Eui Ju Lee

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The recent development of biofuel production technology facilitates the use of bioethanol and biodiesel on automobile. Bioethanol, especially, can be used as a fuel for gasoline vehicles because the addition of ethanol has been known to increase octane number and reduce soot emissions. However, the wide application of biofuel has been still limited because of lack of detailed combustion properties such as auto-ignition temperature and pollutant emissions such as NOx and soot, which has been concerned mainly on the vehicle fire safety and environmental safety. In this study, the combustion characteristics of gasoline/ethanol fuel were investigated both numerically and experimentally. For auto-ignition temperature and NOx emission, the numerical simulation was performed on the well-stirred reactor (WSR) to simulate the homogeneous gasoline engine and to clarify the effect of ethanol addition in the gasoline fuel. Also, the response surface method (RSM) was introduced as a design of experiment (DOE), which enables the various combustion properties to be predicted and optimized systematically with respect to three independent variables, i.e., ethanol mole fraction, equivalence ratio and residence time. The results of stoichiometric gasoline surrogate show that the auto-ignition temperature increases but NOx yields decrease with increasing ethanol mole fraction. This implies that the bioethanol added gasoline is an eco-friendly fuel on engine running condition. However, unburned hydrocarbon is increased dramatically with increasing ethanol content, which results from the incomplete combustion and hence needs to adjust combustion itself rather than an after-treatment system. RSM results analyzed with three independent variables predict the auto-ignition temperature accurately. However, NOx emission had a big difference between the calculated values and the predicted values using conventional RSM because NOx emission varies very steeply and hence the obtained second order polynomial cannot follow the rates. To relax the increasing rate of dependent variable, NOx emission is taken as common logarithms and worked again with RSM. NOx emission predicted through logarithm transformation is in a fairly good agreement with the experimental results. For more tangible understanding of gasoline/ethanol fuel on pollutant emissions, experimental measurements of combustion products were performed in gasoline/ethanol pool fires, which is widely used as a fire source of laboratory scale experiments. Three measurement methods were introduced to clarify the pollutant emissions, i.e., various gas concentrations including NOx, gravimetric soot filter sampling for elements analysis and pyrolysis, thermophoretic soot sampling with transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Soot yield by gravimetric sampling was decreased dramatically as ethanol was added, but NOx emission was almost comparable regardless of ethanol mole fraction. The morphology of the soot particle was investigated to address the degree of soot maturing. The incipient soot such as a liquid like PAHs was observed clearly on the soot of higher ethanol containing gasoline, and the soot might be matured under the undiluted gasoline fuel.

Keywords: gasoline/ethanol fuel, NOx, pool fire, soot, well-stirred reactor (WSR)

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763 A Reusable Foundation Solution for Onshore Windmills

Authors: Wael Mohamed, Per-Erik Austrell, Ola Dahlblom

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Wind farms repowering is a significant topic nowadays. Wind farms repowering means the complete dismantling of the existing turbine, tower and foundation at an existing site and replacing these units with taller and larger units. Modern wind turbines are designed to withstand approximately for 20~25 years. However, a very long design life of 100 years or more can be expected for high-quality concrete foundations. Based on that there are significant economic and environmental benefits of replacing the out-of-date wind turbine with a new turbine of better power generation capacity and reuse the foundation. The big difference in lifetime shows a potential for new foundation solution to allow wind farms to be updated with taller and larger units in order to increase the energy production. This also means a significant change in the design loads on the foundations. Therefore, the new foundation solution should be able to handle the additional overturning loads. A raft surrounded by an active stabilisation system is proposed in this study. The concept of an active stabilisation system is a novel idea using a movable load to stabilise against the overturning moment. The active stabilisation system consists of a water tank being divided into eight compartments. The system uses the water as a movable load by pumping it into two compartments to stabilise against the overturning moment. The position of the water will rely on the wind direction and a water movement system depending on a number of electric motors and pipes with electric valves is used. One of the advantages of this active foundation solution is that some cost-efficient adjustment could be done to make this foundation able to support larger and taller units. After the end of the first turbine lifetime, an option is presented here to reuse this foundation and make it able to support taller and larger units. This option is considered using extra water volume to fill four compartments instead of two compartments. This extra water volume will increase the stability moment by 41% compared to using water in two compartments. The geotechnical performance of the new foundation solution is investigated using two existing weak soil profiles in Egypt and Sweden. A comparative study of the new solution and a piled raft with long friction piles is performed using finite element simulations. The results show that using a raft surrounded by an active stabilisation system decreases the tilting compared to a piled raft with friction piles. Moreover, it is found that using a raft surrounded by an active stabilisation system decreases the foundation costs compared to a piled raft with friction piles. In term of the environmental impact, it is found that the new foundation has a beneficial impact on the CO2 emissions. It saves roughly from 296.1 tonnes-CO2 to 518.21 tonnes-CO2 from the manufacture of concrete if the new foundation solution is used for another turbine-lifetime.

Keywords: active stabilisation system, CO2 emissions, FE analysis, reusable, weak soils

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762 Urban Seismic Risk Reduction in Algeria: Adaptation and Application of the RADIUS Methodology

Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

Abstract:

The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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761 Music Genre Classification Based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization Features

Authors: Soyon Kim, Edward Kim

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In order to retrieve information from the massive stream of songs in the music industry, music search by title, lyrics, artist, mood, and genre has become more important. Despite the subjectivity and controversy over the definition of music genres across different nations and cultures, automatic genre classification systems that facilitate the process of music categorization have been developed. Manual genre selection by music producers is being provided as statistical data for designing automatic genre classification systems. In this paper, an automatic music genre classification system utilizing non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is proposed. Short-term characteristics of the music signal can be captured based on the timbre features such as mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC), decorrelated filter bank (DFB), octave-based spectral contrast (OSC), and octave band sum (OBS). Long-term time-varying characteristics of the music signal can be summarized with (1) the statistical features such as mean, variance, minimum, and maximum of the timbre features and (2) the modulation spectrum features such as spectral flatness measure, spectral crest measure, spectral peak, spectral valley, and spectral contrast of the timbre features. Not only these conventional basic long-term feature vectors, but also NMF based feature vectors are proposed to be used together for genre classification. In the training stage, NMF basis vectors were extracted for each genre class. The NMF features were calculated in the log spectral magnitude domain (NMF-LSM) as well as in the basic feature vector domain (NMF-BFV). For NMF-LSM, an entire full band spectrum was used. However, for NMF-BFV, only low band spectrum was used since high frequency modulation spectrum of the basic feature vectors did not contain important information for genre classification. In the test stage, using the set of pre-trained NMF basis vectors, the genre classification system extracted the NMF weighting values of each genre as the NMF feature vectors. A support vector machine (SVM) was used as a classifier. The GTZAN multi-genre music database was used for training and testing. It is composed of 10 genres and 100 songs for each genre. To increase the reliability of the experiments, 10-fold cross validation was used. For a given input song, an extracted NMF-LSM feature vector was composed of 10 weighting values that corresponded to the classification probabilities for 10 genres. An NMF-BFV feature vector also had a dimensionality of 10. Combined with the basic long-term features such as statistical features and modulation spectrum features, the NMF features provided the increased accuracy with a slight increase in feature dimensionality. The conventional basic features by themselves yielded 84.0% accuracy, but the basic features with NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV provided 85.1% and 84.2% accuracy, respectively. The basic features required dimensionality of 460, but NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV required dimensionalities of 10 and 10, respectively. Combining the basic features, NMF-LSM and NMF-BFV together with the SVM with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel produced the significantly higher classification accuracy of 88.3% with a feature dimensionality of 480.

Keywords: mel-frequency cepstral coefficient (MFCC), music genre classification, non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), support vector machine (SVM)

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760 Precise Determination of the Residual Stress Gradient in Composite Laminates Using a Configurable Numerical-Experimental Coupling Based on the Incremental Hole Drilling Method

Authors: A. S. Ibrahim Mamane, S. Giljean, M.-J. Pac, G. L’Hostis

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Fiber reinforced composite laminates are particularly subject to residual stresses due to their heterogeneity and the complex chemical, mechanical and thermal mechanisms that occur during their processing. Residual stresses are now well known to cause damage accumulation, shape instability, and behavior disturbance in composite parts. Many works exist in the literature on techniques for minimizing residual stresses in thermosetting and thermoplastic composites mainly. To study in-depth the influence of processing mechanisms on the formation of residual stresses and to minimize them by establishing a reliable correlation, it is essential to be able to measure very precisely the profile of residual stresses in the composite. Residual stresses are important data to consider when sizing composite parts and predicting their behavior. The incremental hole drilling is very effective in measuring the gradient of residual stresses in composite laminates. This method is semi-destructive and consists of drilling incrementally a hole through the thickness of the material and measuring relaxation strains around the hole for each increment using three strain gauges. These strains are then converted into residual stresses using a matrix of coefficients. These coefficients, called calibration coefficients, depending on the diameter of the hole and the dimensions of the gauges used. The reliability of the incremental hole drilling depends on the accuracy with which the calibration coefficients are determined. These coefficients are calculated using a finite element model. The samples’ features and the experimental conditions must be considered in the simulation. Any mismatch can lead to inadequate calibration coefficients, thus introducing errors on residual stresses. Several calibration coefficient correction methods exist for isotropic material, but there is a lack of information on this subject concerning composite laminates. In this work, a Python program was developed to automatically generate the adequate finite element model. This model allowed us to perform a parametric study to assess the influence of experimental errors on the calibration coefficients. The results highlighted the sensitivity of the calibration coefficients to the considered errors and gave an order of magnitude of the precisions required on the experimental device to have reliable measurements. On the basis of these results, improvements were proposed on the experimental device. Furthermore, a numerical method was proposed to correct the calibration coefficients for different types of materials, including thick composite parts for which the analytical approach is too complex. This method consists of taking into account the experimental errors in the simulation. Accurate measurement of the experimental errors (such as eccentricity of the hole, angular deviation of the gauges from their theoretical position, or errors on increment depth) is therefore necessary. The aim is to determine more precisely the residual stresses and to expand the validity domain of the incremental hole drilling technique.

Keywords: fiber reinforced composites, finite element simulation, incremental hole drilling method, numerical correction of the calibration coefficients, residual stresses

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759 Mental Health Surveys on Community and Organizational Levels: Challenges, Issues, Conclusions and Possibilities

Authors: László L. Lippai

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In addition to the fact that mental health bears great significance to a particular individual, it can also be regarded as an organizational, community and societal resource. Within the Szeged Health Promotion Research Group, we conducted mental health surveys on two levels: The inhabitants of a medium-sized Hungarian town and students of a Hungarian university with a relatively big headcount were requested to participate in surveys whose goals were to define local government priorities and organization-level health promotion programmes, respectively. To facilitate professional decision-making, we defined three, pragmatically relevant, groups of the target population: the mentally healthy, the vulnerable and the endangered. In order to determine which group a person actually belongs to, we designed a simple and quick measurement tool, which could even be utilised as a smoothing method, the Mental State Questionnaire validity of the above three categories was verified by analysis of variance against psychological quality of life variables. We demonstrate the pragmatic significance of our method via the analyses of the scores of our two mental health surveys. On town level, during our representative survey in Hódmezővásárhely (N=1839), we found that 38.7% of the participants was mentally healthy, 35.3% was vulnerable, while 16.3% was considered as endangered. We were able to identify groups that were in a dramatic state in terms of mental health. For example, such a group consisted of men aged 45 to 64 with only primary education qualification and the ratios of the mentally healthy, vulnerable and endangered were 4.5, 45.5 and 50%, respectively. It was also astonishing to see to what a little extent qualification prevailed as a protective factor in the case of women. Based on our data, the female group aged 18 to 44 with primary education—of whom 20.3% was mentally healthy, 42.4% vulnerable and 37.3% was endangered—as well as the female group aged 45 to 64 with university or college degree—of whom 25% was mentally healthy, 51.3 vulnerable and 23.8% endangered—are to be handled as priority intervention target groups in a similarly difficult position. On organizational level, our survey involving the students of the University of Szeged, N=1565, provided data to prepare a strategy of mental health promotion for a university with a headcount exceeding 20,000. When developing an organizational strategy, it was important to gather information to estimate the proportions of target groups in which mental health promotion methods; for example, life management skills development, detection, psychological consultancy, psychotherapy, would be applied. Our scores show that 46.8% of the student participants were mentally healthy, 42.1% were vulnerable and 11.1% were endangered. These data convey relevant information as to the allocation of organizational resources within a university with a considerable headcount. In conclusion, The Mental State Questionnaire, as a valid smoothing method, is adequate to describe a community in a plain and informative way in the terms of mental health. The application of the method can promote the preparation, design and implementation of mental health promotion interventions. 

Keywords: health promotion, mental health promotion, mental state questionnaire, psychological well-being

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758 Functional Ingredients from Potato By-Products: Innovative Biocatalytic Processes

Authors: Salwa Karboune, Amanda Waglay

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Recent studies indicate that health-promoting functional ingredients and nutraceuticals can help support and improve the overall public health, which is timely given the aging of the population and the increasing cost of health care. The development of novel ‘natural’ functional ingredients is increasingly challenging. Biocatalysis offers powerful approaches to achieve this goal. Our recent research has been focusing on the development of innovative biocatalytic approaches towards the isolation of protein isolates from potato by-products and the generation of peptides. Potato is a vegetable whose high-quality proteins are underestimated. In addition to their high proportion in the essential amino acids, potato proteins possess angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitory potency, an ability to reduce plasma triglycerides associated with a reduced risk of atherosclerosis, and stimulate the release of the appetite regulating hormone CCK. Potato proteins have long been considered not economically feasible due to the low protein content (27% dry matter) found in tuber (Solanum tuberosum). However, potatoes rank the second largest protein supplying crop grown per hectare following wheat. Potato proteins include patatin (40-45 kDa), protease inhibitors (5-25 kDa), and various high MW proteins. Non-destructive techniques for the extraction of proteins from potato pulp and for the generation of peptides are needed in order to minimize functional losses and enhance quality. A promising approach for isolating the potato proteins was developed, which involves the use of multi-enzymatic systems containing selected glycosyl hydrolase enzymes that synergistically work to open the plant cell wall network. This enzymatic approach is advantageous due to: (1) the use of milder reaction conditions, (2) the high selectivity and specificity of enzymes, (3) the low cost and (4) the ability to market natural ingredients. Another major benefit to this enzymatic approach is the elimination of a costly purification step; indeed, these multi-enzymatic systems have the ability to isolate proteins, while fractionating them due to their specificity and selectivity with minimal proteolytic activities. The isolated proteins were used for the enzymatic generation of active peptides. In addition, they were applied into a reduced gluten cookie formulation as consumers are putting a high demand for easy ready to eat snack foods, with high nutritional quality and limited to no gluten incorporation. The addition of potato protein significantly improved the textural hardness of reduced gluten cookies, more comparable to wheat flour alone. The presentation will focus on our recent ‘proof-of principle’ results illustrating the feasibility and the efficiency of new biocatalytic processes for the production of innovative functional food ingredients, from potato by-products, whose potential health benefits are increasingly being recognized.

Keywords: biocatalytic approaches, functional ingredients, potato proteins, peptides

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757 Assessment of Groundwater Potential Sampled in Hand Dug Wells and Boreholes in Ado-Ekiti, Southwestern Nigeria

Authors: A. J. Olatunji, Adebolu Temitope Johnson

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Groundwater samples were collected randomly from hand-dug wells and boreholes in parts of the Ado Ekiti metropolis and were subjected to quality assessment and characterization. Physicochemical analyses, which include the in-situ parameters (pH units, Turbidity, and Electrical Conductivity) and laboratory analysis of selected ionic concentrations, were carried out following standard methods. Hydrochemistry of the present study revealed relative mean concentrations of cations in the order Ca2+ > Na+ > Mg2+ > Cu2+> Fe > Mn2+ and that of anions: Cl- > NO3- > SO42- > F - respectively considering World Health Organisation Standard (WHO) range of values for potable water. The result shows that values of certain parameters (Total Dissolved Solid (TDS), Manganese, Calcium, Magnesium, Fluoride, and Sulphate) were below the Highest Desirable Level of the Standards, while values of some other parameters (pH Units, Electrical Conductivity, Turbidity, Alkalinity, Sodium, Copper, Chloride, and Total Hardness) were within the range of figures between Highest Desirable Level (HDL) and Maximum Permissible Level (MPL) of World Health Organization (WHO) drinking water Standards. The reduction in the mean concentration value of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) of most borehole samples follows the fact that water had been allowed to settle in the overhead tanks before usage; we discussed and brainstormed in the course of sampling and agreed to take a sample that way because that represents what the people consume, it also shows an indication while there was slightly concentration increase of these soluble ions in hand-dug wells samples than borehole samples only with the exception of borehole sample seven BH7 because BH7 uses the mono-pumping system. These in-situ parameters and ionic concentrations were further displayed and or represented on bar charts along with the WHO standards for better pictorial clarifications. Deductions from field observation indices revealed the imprints of natural weathering, ion-exchange processes, and anthropogenic activities influencing groundwater quality. A strong degree of association was found to exist between sodium and chlorine ions in both hand-dug well and borehole groundwater samples through the use of Pearson’s correlation coefficient; this association can further be supported by the chemistry of the parent bedrock associated with the study area because the chemistry of groundwater is a replica of its host rock. The correlation of those two ions must have begun from the period of mountain building, indicating an identical source from which they were released to the groundwater. Moreover, considering the comparison of ionic species concentrations of all samples with the (WHO) standards, there were no anomalous increases or decreases in the laboratory analysis results; this simply reveals an insignificant state of pollution of the groundwater. The study and its sampling techniques were not set to target the likely area and extent of groundwater pollution but its portability. It could be said that the samples were safe for human consumption.

Keywords: groundwater, physicochemical, parameters ionic, concentrations, WHO standards

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756 Diversity of Rhopalocera in Different Vegetation Types of PC Hills, Philippines

Authors: Sean E. Gregory P. Igano, Ranz Brendan D. Gabor, Baron Arthur M. Cabalona, Numeriano Amer E. Gutierrez

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Distribution patterns and abundance of butterflies respond in the long term to variations in habitat quality. Studying butterfly populations would give evidence on how vegetation types influence their diversity. In this research, the Rhopalocera diversity of PC Hills was assessed to provide information on diversity trends in varying vegetation types. PC Hills, located in Palo, Leyte, Philippines, is a relatively undisturbed area having forests and rivers. Despite being situated nearby inhabited villages; the area is observed to have a possible rich butterfly population. To assess the Rhopalocera species richness and diversity, transect sampling technique was applied to monitor and document butterflies. Transects were placed in locations that can be mapped, described and relocated easily. Three transects measuring three hundred meters each with a 5-meter diameter were established based on the different vegetation types present. The three main vegetation types identified were the agroecosystem (transect 1), dipterocarp forest (transect 2), and riparian (transect 3). Sample collections were done only from 9:00 A.M to 3:00 P.M. under warm and bright weather, with no more than moderate winds and when it was not raining. When weather conditions did not permit collection, it was moved to another day. A GPS receiver was used to record the location of the selected sample sites and the coordinates of where each sample was collected. Morphological analysis was done for the first phase of the study to identify the voucher specimen to the lowest taxonomic level possible using books about butterfly identification guides and species lists as references. For the second phase, DNA barcoding will be used to further identify the voucher specimen into the species taxonomic level. After eight (8) sampling sessions, seven hundred forty-two (742) individuals were seen, and twenty-two (22) Rhopalocera genera were identified through morphological identification. Nymphalidae family of genus Ypthima and the Pieridae family of genera Eurema and Leptosia were the most dominant species observed. Twenty (20) of the thirty-one (31) voucher specimen were already identified to their species taxonomic level using DNA Barcoding. Shannon-Weiner index showed that the highest diversity level was observed in the third transect (H’ = 2.947), followed by the second transect (H’ = 2.6317) and the lowest being in the first transect (H’ = 1.767). This indicates that butterflies are likely to inhabit dipterocarp and riparian vegetation types than agroecosystem, which influences their species composition and diversity. Moreover, the appearance of a river in the riparian vegetation supported its diversity value since butterflies have the tendency to fly into areas near rivers. Species identification of other voucher specimen will be done in order to compute the overall species richness in PC Hills. Further butterfly sampling sessions of PC Hills is recommended for a more reliable diversity trend and to discover more butterfly species. Expanding the research by assessing the Rhopalocera diversity in other locations should be considered along with studying factors that affect butterfly species composition other than vegetation types.

Keywords: distribution patterns, DNA barcoding, morphological analysis, Rhopalocera

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755 Consumer Cognitive Models of Vaccine Attitudes: Behavioral Informed Strategies Promoting Vaccination Policy in Greece

Authors: Halkiopoulos Constantinos, Koutsopoulou Ioanna, Gkintoni Evgenia, Antonopoulou Hera

Abstract:

Immunization appears to be an essential part of health care service in times of pandemics such as covid-19 and aims not only to protect the health of the population but also the health and sustainability of the economies of the countries affected. It is reported that more than 3.44 billion doses have been administered so far, which accounts for 45 doses for 100 people. Vaccination programs in various countries have been promoted and accepted by people differently and therefore they proceeded in different ways and speed; most countries directing them towards people with vulnerable chronic or recent health statuses. Large scale restriction measures or lockdown, personal protection measures such as masks and gloves and a decrease in leisure and sports activities were also implemented around the world as part of the protection health strategies against the covid-19 pandemic. This research aims to present an analysis based on variations on people’s attitudes towards vaccination based on demographic, social and epidemiological characteristics, and health status on the one hand and perception of health, health satisfaction, pain, and quality of life on the other hand. 1500 Greek e-consumers participated in the research, mainly through social media who took part in an online-based survey voluntarily. The questionnaires included demographic, social and medical characteristics of the participants, and questions asking people’s willingness to be vaccinated and their opinion on whether there should be a vaccine against covid-19. Other stressor factors were also reported in the questionnaires and participants’ loss of someone close due to covid-19, or staying at home quarantine due to being infected from covid-19. WHOQUOL-BREF and GLOBAL PSYCHOTRAUMA SCREEN- GPS were used with kind permission from WHO and from the International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies in this study. Attitudes towards vaccination varied significantly related to aging, level of education, health status and consumer behavior. Health professionals’ attitudes also varied in relation to age, level of education, profession, health status and consumer needs. Vaccines have been the most common technological aid of human civilization so far in the fight against viruses. The results of this study can be used for health managers and digital marketers of pharmaceutical companies and also other staff involved in vaccination programs and for designing health policy immunization strategies during pandemics in order to achieve positive attitudes towards vaccination and larger populations being vaccinated in shorter periods of time after the break out of pandemic. Health staff needs to be trained, aided and supervised to go through with vaccination programs and to be protected through vaccination programs themselves. Feedback in each country’s vaccination program, short backs, deficiencies and delays should be addressed and worked out.

Keywords: consumer behavior, cognitive models, vaccination policy, pandemic, Covid-19, Greece

Procedia PDF Downloads 184
754 Disability in the Course of a Chronic Disease: The Example of People Living with Multiple Sclerosis in Poland

Authors: Milena Trojanowska

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Disability is a phenomenon for which meanings and definitions have evolved over the decades. This became the trigger to start a project to answer the question of what disability constitutes in the course of an incurable chronic disease. The chosen research group are people living with multiple sclerosis.The contextual phase of the research was participant observation at the Polish Multiple Sclerosis Society, the largest NGO in Poland supporting people living with MS and their relatives. The research techniques used in the project are (in order of implementation): group interviews with people living with MS and their relatives, narrative interviews, asynchronous technique, participant observation during events organised for people living with MS and their relatives.The researcher is currently conducting follow-up interviews, as inaccuracies in the respondents' narratives were identified during the data analysis. Interviews and supplementary research techniques were used over the four years of the research, and the researcher also benefited from experience gained from 12 years of working with NGOs (diaries, notes). The research was carried out in Poland with the participation of people living in this country only.The research has been based on grounded theory methodology in a constructivist perspectivedeveloped by Kathy Charmaz. The goal was to follow the idea that research must be reliable, original, and useful. The aim was to construct an interpretive theory that assumes temporality and the processualityof social life. TheAtlas.ti software was used to collect research material and analyse it. It is a program from the CAQDAS(Computer-Assisted Qualitative Data Analysis Software) group.Several key factors influencing the construction of a disability identity by people living with multiple sclerosis was identified:-course of interaction with significant relatives,- the expectation of identification with disability (expressed by close relatives),- economic profitability (pension, allowances),- institutional advantages (e.g. parking card),- independence and autonomy (not equated with physical condition, but access to adapted infrastructure and resources to support daily functioning),- the way a person with MS construes the meaning of disability,- physical and mental state,- medical diagnosis of illness.In addition, it has been shown that making an assumption about the experience of disability in the course of MS is a form of cognitive reductionism leading to further phenomenon such as: the expectation of the person with MS to construct a social identity as a person with a disability (e.g. giving up work), the occurrence of institutional inequalities. It can also be a determinant of the choice of a life strategy that limits social and individual functioning, even if this necessity is not influenced by the person's physical or psychological condition.The results of the research are important for the development of knowledge about the phenomenon of disability. It indicates the contextuality and complexity of the disability phenomenon, which in the light of the research is a set of different phenomenon of heterogeneous nature and multifaceted causality. This knowledge can also be useful for institutions and organisations in the non-governmental sector supporting people with disabilities and people living with multiple sclerosis.

Keywords: disability, multiple sclerosis, grounded theory, poland

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753 Sensor and Sensor System Design, Selection and Data Fusion Using Non-Deterministic Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration

Authors: Matthew Yeager, Christopher Willy, John Bischoff

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The conceptualization and design phases of a system lifecycle consume a significant amount of the lifecycle budget in the form of direct tasking and capital, as well as the implicit costs associated with unforeseeable design errors that are only realized during downstream phases. Ad hoc or iterative approaches to generating system requirements oftentimes fail to consider the full array of feasible systems or product designs for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to: initial conceptualization that oftentimes incorporates a priori or legacy features; the inability to capture, communicate and accommodate stakeholder preferences; inadequate technical designs and/or feasibility studies; and locally-, but not globally-, optimized subsystems and components. These design pitfalls can beget unanticipated developmental or system alterations with added costs, risks and support activities, heightening the risk for suboptimal system performance, premature obsolescence or forgone development. Supported by rapid advances in learning algorithms and hardware technology, sensors and sensor systems have become commonplace in both commercial and industrial products. The evolving array of hardware components (i.e. sensors, CPUs, modular / auxiliary access, etc…) as well as recognition, data fusion and communication protocols have all become increasingly complex and critical for design engineers during both concpetualization and implementation. This work seeks to develop and utilize a non-deterministic approach for sensor system design within the multi-attribute tradespace exploration (MATE) paradigm, a technique that incorporates decision theory into model-based techniques in order to explore complex design environments and discover better system designs. Developed to address the inherent design constraints in complex aerospace systems, MATE techniques enable project engineers to examine all viable system designs, assess attribute utility and system performance, and better align with stakeholder requirements. Whereas such previous work has been focused on aerospace systems and conducted in a deterministic fashion, this study addresses a wider array of system design elements by incorporating both traditional tradespace elements (e.g. hardware components) as well as popular multi-sensor data fusion models and techniques. Furthermore, statistical performance features to this model-based MATE approach will enable non-deterministic techniques for various commercial systems that range in application, complexity and system behavior, demonstrating a significant utility within the realm of formal systems decision-making.

Keywords: multi-attribute tradespace exploration, data fusion, sensors, systems engineering, system design

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752 Effects of Virtual Reality Treadmill Training on Gait and Balance Performance of Patients with Stroke: Review

Authors: Hanan Algarni

Abstract:

Background: Impairment of walking and balance skills has negative impact on functional independence and community participation after stroke. Gait recovery is considered a primary goal in rehabilitation by both patients and physiotherapists. Treadmill training coupled with virtual reality technology is a new emerging approach that offers patients with feedback, open and random skills practice while walking and interacting with virtual environmental scenes. Objectives: To synthesize the evidence around the effects of the VR treadmill training on gait speed and balance primarily, functional independence and community participation secondarily in stroke patients. Methods: Systematic review was conducted; search strategy included electronic data bases: MEDLINE, AMED, Cochrane, CINAHL, EMBASE, PEDro, Web of Science, and unpublished literature. Inclusion criteria: Participant: adult >18 years, stroke, ambulatory, without severe visual or cognitive impartments. Intervention: VR treadmill training alone or with physiotherapy. Comparator: any other interventions. Outcomes: gait speed, balance, function, community participation. Characteristics of included studies were extracted for analysis. Risk of bias assessment was performed using Cochrane's ROB tool. Narrative synthesis of findings was undertaken and summary of findings in each outcome was reported using GRADEpro. Results: Four studies were included involving 84 stroke participants with chronic hemiparesis. Interventions intensity ranged (6-12 sessions, 20 minutes-1 hour/session). Three studies investigated the effects on gait speed and balance. 2 studies investigated functional outcomes and one study assessed community participation. ROB assessment showed 50% unclear risk of selection bias and 25% of unclear risk of detection bias across the studies. Heterogeneity was identified in the intervention effects at post training and follow up. Outcome measures, training intensity and durations also varied across the studies, grade of evidence was low for balance, moderate for speed and function outcomes, and high for community participation. However, it is important to note that grading was done on few numbers of studies in each outcome. Conclusions: The summary of findings suggests positive and statistically significant effects (p<0.05) of VR treadmill training compared to other interventions on gait speed, dynamic balance skills, function and participation directly after training. However, the effects were not sustained at follow up in two studies (2 weeks-1 month) and other studies did not perform follow up measurements. More RCTs with larger sample sizes and higher methodological quality are required to examine the long term effects of VR treadmill effects on function independence and community participation after stroke, in order to draw conclusions and produce stronger robust evidence.

Keywords: virtual reality, treadmill, stroke, gait rehabilitation

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751 A New Model to Perform Preliminary Evaluations of Complex Systems for the Production of Energy for Buildings: Case Study

Authors: Roberto de Lieto Vollaro, Emanuele de Lieto Vollaro, Gianluca Coltrinari

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The building sector is responsible, in many industrialized countries, for about 40% of the total energy requirements, so it seems necessary to devote some efforts in this area in order to achieve a significant reduction of energy consumption and of greenhouse gases emissions. The paper presents a study aiming at providing a design methodology able to identify the best configuration of the system building/plant, from a technical, economic and environmentally point of view. Normally, the classical approach involves a building's energy loads analysis under steady state conditions, and subsequent selection of measures aimed at improving the energy performance, based on previous experience made by architects and engineers in the design team. Instead, the proposed approach uses a sequence of two well known scientifically validated calculation methods (TRNSYS and RETScreen), that allow quite a detailed feasibility analysis. To assess the validity of the calculation model, an existing, historical building in Central Italy, that will be the object of restoration and preservative redevelopment, was selected as a case-study. The building is made of a basement and three floors, with a total floor area of about 3,000 square meters. The first step has been the determination of the heating and cooling energy loads of the building in a dynamic regime by means of TRNSYS, which allows to simulate the real energy needs of the building in function of its use. Traditional methodologies, based as they are on steady-state conditions, cannot faithfully reproduce the effects of varying climatic conditions and of inertial properties of the structure. With TRNSYS it is possible to obtain quite accurate and reliable results, that allow to identify effective combinations building-HVAC system. The second step has consisted of using output data obtained with TRNSYS as input to the calculation model RETScreen, which enables to compare different system configurations from the energy, environmental and financial point of view, with an analysis of investment, and operation and maintenance costs, so allowing to determine the economic benefit of possible interventions. The classical methodology often leads to the choice of conventional plant systems, while RETScreen provides a financial-economic assessment for innovative energy systems and low environmental impact. Computational analysis can help in the design phase, particularly in the case of complex structures with centralized plant systems, by comparing the data returned by the calculation model RETScreen for different design options. For example, the analysis performed on the building, taken as a case study, found that the most suitable plant solution, taking into account technical, economic and environmental aspects, is the one based on a CCHP system (Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power) using an internal combustion engine.

Keywords: energy, system, building, cooling, electrical

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750 Active Development of Tacit Knowledge: Knowledge Management, High Impact Practices and Experiential Learning

Authors: John Zanetich

Abstract:

Due to their positive associations with student learning and retention, certain undergraduate opportunities are designated ‘high-impact.’ High-Impact Practices (HIPs) such as, learning communities, community based projects, research, internships, study abroad and culminating senior experience, share several traits bin common: they demand considerable time and effort, learning occurs outside of the classroom, and they require meaningful interactions between faculty and students, they encourage collaboration with diverse others, and they provide frequent and substantive feedback. As a result of experiential learning in these practices, participation in these practices can be life changing. High impact learning helps individuals locate tacit knowledge, and build mental models that support the accumulation of knowledge. On-going learning from experience and knowledge conversion provides the individual with a way to implicitly organize knowledge and share knowledge over a lifetime. Knowledge conversion is a knowledge management component which focuses on the explication of the tacit knowledge that exists in the minds of students and that knowledge which is embedded in the process and relationships of the classroom educational experience. Knowledge conversion is required when working with tacit knowledge and the demand for a learner to align deeply held beliefs with the cognitive dissonance created by new information. Knowledge conversion and tacit knowledge result from the fact that an individual's way of knowing, that is, their core belief structure, is considered generalized and tacit instead of explicit and specific. As a phenomenon, tacit knowledge is not readily available to the learner for explicit description unless evoked by an external source. The development of knowledge–related capabilities such as Aggressive Development of Tacit Knowledge (ADTK) can be used in experiential educational programs to enhance knowledge, foster behavioral change, improve decision making, and overall performance. ADTK allows the student in HIPs to use their existing knowledge in a way that allows them to evaluate and make any necessary modifications to their core construct of reality in order to amalgamate new information. Based on the Lewin/Schein Change Theory, the learner will reach for tacit knowledge as a stabilizing mechanism when they are challenged by new information that puts them slightly off balance. As in word association drills, the important concept is the first thought. The reactionary outpouring to an experience is the programmed or tacit memory and knowledge of their core belief structure. ADTK is a way to help teachers design their own methods and activities to unfreeze, create new learning, and then refreeze the core constructs upon which future learning in a subject area is built. This paper will explore the use of ADTK as a technique for knowledge conversion in the classroom in general and in HIP programs specifically. It will focus on knowledge conversion in curriculum development and propose the use of one-time educational experiences, multi-session experiences and sequential program experiences focusing on tacit knowledge in educational programs.

Keywords: tacit knowledge, knowledge management, college programs, experiential learning

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749 White Individuals' Perception On Whiteness

Authors: Sebastian Del Corral Winder, Kiriana Sanchez, Mixalis Poulakis, Samantha Gray

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This paper seeks to explore White privilege and Whiteness. Being White in the U.S. is often perceived as the norm and it brings significant social, economic, educational, and health privileges that often are hidden in social interactions. One quality of Whiteness has been its invisibility given its intrinsic impact on the system, which becomes only visible when paying close attention to White identity and culture and during cross-cultural interactions. The cross-cultural interaction provides an emphasis on differences between the participants and people of color are often viewed as “the other.” These interactions may promote an increased opportunity for discrimination and negative stereotypes against a person of color. Given the recent increase of violence against culturally diverse groups, there has been an increased sense of otherness and division in the country. Furthermore, the accent prestige theory has found that individuals who speak English with a foreign accent are perceived as less educated, competent, friendly, and trustworthy by White individuals in the United States. Using the consensual qualitative research (CQR) methodology, this study explored the cross-cultural dyad from the White individual’s perspective focusing on the psychotherapeutic relationship. The participants were presented with an audio recording of a conversation between a psychotherapist with a Hispanic accent and a patient with an American English accent. Then, the participants completed an interview regarding their perceptions of race, culture, and cross-cultural interactions. The preliminary results suggested that the Hispanic accent alone was enough for the participants to assign stereotypical ethnic and cultural characteristics to the individual with the Hispanic accent. Given the quality of the responses, the authors completed a secondary analysis to explore Whiteness and White privilege in more depth. Participants were found to be on a continuum in their understanding and acknowledgment of systemic racism; while some participants listed examples of inequality, other participants noted: “all people are treated equally.” Most participants noted their feelings of discomfort in discussing topics of cultural diversity and systemic racism by fearing to “say the ‘wrong thing.” Most participants placed the responsibility of discussing cultural differences with the person of color, which has been observed to create further alienation and otherness for culturally diverse individuals. The results indicate the importance of examining racial and cultural biases from White individuals to promote an anti-racist stance. The results emphasize the need for greater systemic changes in education, policies, and individual awareness regarding cultural identity. The results suggest the importance for White individuals to take ownership of their own cultural biases in order to promote equity and engage in cultural humility in a multicultural world. Future research should continue exploring the role of White ethnic identity and education as they appear to moderate White individuals’ attitudes and beliefs regarding other races and cultures.

Keywords: culture, qualitative research, whiteness, white privilege

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748 The Influence of Microsilica on the Cluster Cracks' Geometry of Cement Paste

Authors: Maciej Szeląg

Abstract:

The changing nature of environmental impacts, in which cement composites are operating, are causing in the structure of the material a number of phenomena, which result in volume deformation of the composite. These strains can cause composite cracking. Cracks are merging by propagation or intersect to form a characteristic structure of cracks known as the cluster cracks. This characteristic mesh of cracks is crucial to almost all building materials, which are working in service loads conditions. Particularly dangerous for a cement matrix is a sudden load of elevated temperature – the thermal shock. Resulting in a relatively short period of time a large value of a temperature gradient between the outer surface and the material’s interior can result in cracks formation on the surface and in the volume of the material. In the paper, in order to analyze the geometry of the cluster cracks of the cement pastes, the image analysis tools were used. Tested were 4 series of specimens made of two different Portland cement. In addition, two series include microsilica as a substitute for the 10% of the cement. Within each series, specimens were performed in three w/b indicators (water/binder): 0.4; 0.5; 0.6. The cluster cracks were created by sudden loading the samples by elevated temperature of 250°C. Images of the cracked surfaces were obtained via scanning at 2400 DPI. Digital processing and measurements were performed using ImageJ v. 1.46r software. To describe the structure of the cluster cracks three stereological parameters were proposed: the average cluster area - A ̅, the average length of cluster perimeter - L ̅, and the average opening width of a crack between clusters - I ̅. The aim of the study was to identify and evaluate the relationships between measured stereological parameters, and the compressive strength and the bulk density of the modified cement pastes. The tests of the mechanical and physical feature have been carried out in accordance with EN standards. The curves describing the relationships have been developed using the least squares method, and the quality of the curve fitting to the empirical data was evaluated using three diagnostic statistics: the coefficient of determination – R2, the standard error of estimation - Se, and the coefficient of random variation – W. The use of image analysis allowed for a quantitative description of the cluster cracks’ geometry. Based on the obtained results, it was found a strong correlation between the A ̅ and L ̅ – reflecting the fractal nature of the cluster cracks formation process. It was noted that the compressive strength and the bulk density of cement pastes decrease with an increase in the values of the stereological parameters. It was also found that the main factors, which impact on the cluster cracks’ geometry are the cement particles’ size and the general content of the binder in a volume of the material. The microsilica caused the reduction in the A ̅, L ̅ and I ̅ values compared to the values obtained by the classical cement paste’s samples, which is caused by the pozzolanic properties of the microsilica.

Keywords: cement paste, cluster cracks, elevated temperature, image analysis, microsilica, stereological parameters

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747 Analysis of the Relationship between Micro-Regional Human Development and Brazil's Greenhouse Gases Emission

Authors: Geanderson Eduardo Ambrósio, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha, Marcel Viana Pires

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Historically, human development has been based on economic gains associated with intensive energy activities, which often are exhaustive in the emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs). It requires the establishment of targets for mitigation of GHGs in order to disassociate the human development from emissions and prevent further climate change. Brazil presents itself as one of the most GHGs emitters and it is of critical importance to discuss such reductions in intra-national framework with the objective of distributional equity to explore its full mitigation potential without compromising the development of less developed societies. This research displays some incipient considerations about which Brazil’s micro-regions should reduce, when the reductions should be initiated and what its magnitude should be. We started with the methodological assumption that human development and GHGs emissions arise in the future as their behavior was observed in the past. Furthermore, we assume that once a micro-region became developed, it is able to maintain gains in human development without the need of keep growing GHGs emissions rates. The human development index and the carbon dioxide equivalent emissions (CO2e) were extrapolated to the year 2050, which allowed us to calculate when the micro-regions will become developed and the mass of GHG’s emitted. The results indicate that Brazil must throw 300 GT CO2e in the atmosphere between 2011 and 2050, of which only 50 GT will be issued by micro-regions before it’s develop and 250 GT will be released after development. We also determined national mitigation targets and structured reduction schemes where only the developed micro-regions would be required to reduce. The micro-region of São Paulo, the most developed of the country, should be also the one that reduces emissions at most, emitting, in 2050, 90% less than the value observed in 2010. On the other hand, less developed micro-regions will be responsible for less impactful reductions, i.e. Vale do Ipanema will issue in 2050 only 10% below the value observed in 2010. Such methodological assumption would lead the country to issue, in 2050, 56.5% lower than that observed in 2010, so that the cumulative emissions between 2011 and 2050 would reduce by 130 GT CO2e over the initial projection. The fact of associating the magnitude of the reductions to the level of human development of the micro-regions encourages the adoption of policies that favor both variables as the governmental planner will have to deal with both the increasing demand for higher standards of living and with the increasing magnitude of reducing emissions. However, if economic agents do not act proactively in local and national level, the country is closer to the scenario in which emits more than the one in which mitigates emissions. The research highlighted the importance of considering the heterogeneity in determining individual mitigation targets and also ratified the theoretical and methodological feasibility to allocate larger share of contribution for those who historically emitted more. It is understood that the proposals and discussions presented should be considered in mitigation policy formulation in Brazil regardless of the adopted reduction target.

Keywords: greenhouse gases, human development, mitigation, intensive energy activities

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746 Computer Aide Discrimination of Benign and Malignant Thyroid Nodules by Ultrasound Imaging

Authors: Akbar Gharbali, Ali Abbasian Ardekani, Afshin Mohammadi

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Introduction: Thyroid nodules have an incidence of 33-68% in the general population. More than 5-15% of these nodules are malignant. Early detection and treatment of thyroid nodules increase the cure rate and provide optimal treatment. Between the medical imaging methods, Ultrasound is the chosen imaging technique for assessment of thyroid nodules. The confirming of the diagnosis usually demands repeated fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB). So, current management has morbidity and non-zero mortality. Objective: To explore diagnostic potential of automatic texture analysis (TA) methods in differentiation benign and malignant thyroid nodules by ultrasound imaging in order to help for reliable diagnosis and monitoring of the thyroid nodules in their early stages with no need biopsy. Material and Methods: The thyroid US image database consists of 70 patients (26 benign and 44 malignant) which were reported by Radiologist and proven by the biopsy. Two slices per patient were loaded in Mazda Software version 4.6 for automatic texture analysis. Regions of interests (ROIs) were defined within the abnormal part of the thyroid nodules ultrasound images. Gray levels within an ROI normalized according to three normalization schemes: N1: default or original gray levels, N2: +/- 3 Sigma or dynamic intensity limited to µ+/- 3σ, and N3: present intensity limited to 1% - 99%. Up to 270 multiscale texture features parameters per ROIs per each normalization schemes were computed from well-known statistical methods employed in Mazda software. From the statistical point of view, all calculated texture features parameters are not useful for texture analysis. So, the features based on maximum Fisher coefficient and the minimum probability of classification error and average correlation coefficients (POE+ACC) eliminated to 10 best and most effective features per normalization schemes. We analyze this feature under two standardization states (standard (S) and non-standard (NS)) with Principle Component Analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Non-Linear Discriminant Analysis (NDA). The 1NN classifier was performed to distinguish between benign and malignant tumors. The confusion matrix and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were used for the formulation of more reliable criteria of the performance of employed texture analysis methods. Results: The results demonstrated the influence of the normalization schemes and reduction methods on the effectiveness of the obtained features as a descriptor on discrimination power and classification results. The selected subset features under 1%-99% normalization, POE+ACC reduction and NDA texture analysis yielded a high discrimination performance with the area under the ROC curve (Az) of 0.9722, in distinguishing Benign from Malignant Thyroid Nodules which correspond to sensitivity of 94.45%, specificity of 100%, and accuracy of 97.14%. Conclusions: Our results indicate computer-aided diagnosis is a reliable method, and can provide useful information to help radiologists in the detection and classification of benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

Keywords: ultrasound imaging, thyroid nodules, computer aided diagnosis, texture analysis, PCA, LDA, NDA

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745 Threats to the Business Value: The Case of Mechanical Engineering Companies in the Czech Republic

Authors: Maria Reznakova, Michala Strnadova, Lukas Reznak

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Successful achievement of strategic goals requires an effective performance management system, i.e. determining the appropriate indicators measuring the rate of goal achievement. Assuming that the goal of the owners is to grow the assets they invested in, it is vital to identify the key performance indicators, which contribute to value creation. These indicators are known as value drivers. Based on the undertaken literature search, a value driver is defined as any factor that affects the value of an enterprise. The important factors are then monitored by both financial and non-financial indicators. Financial performance indicators are most useful in strategic management, since they indicate whether a company's strategy implementation and execution are contributing to bottom line improvement. Non-financial indicators are mainly used for short-term decisions. The identification of value drivers, however, is problematic for companies which are not publicly traded. Therefore financial ratios continue to be used to measure the performance of companies, despite their considerable criticism. The main drawback of such indicators is the fact that they are calculated based on accounting data, while accounting rules may differ considerably across different environments. For successful enterprise performance management it is vital to avoid factors that may reduce (or even destroy) its value. Among the known factors reducing the enterprise value are the lack of capital, lack of strategic management system and poor quality of production. In order to gain further insight into the topic, the paper presents results of the research identifying factors that adversely affect the performance of mechanical engineering enterprises in the Czech Republic. The research methodology focuses on both the qualitative and the quantitative aspect of the topic. The qualitative data were obtained from a questionnaire survey of the enterprises senior management, while the quantitative financial data were obtained from the Analysis Major Database for European Sources (AMADEUS). The questionnaire prompted managers to list factors which negatively affect business performance of their enterprises. The range of potential factors was based on a secondary research – analysis of previously undertaken questionnaire surveys and research of studies published in the scientific literature. The results of the survey were evaluated both in general, by average scores, and by detailed sub-analyses of additional criteria. These include the company specific characteristics, such as its size and ownership structure. The evaluation also included a comparison of the managers’ opinions and the performance of their enterprises – measured by return on equity and return on assets ratios. The comparisons were tested by a series of non-parametric tests of statistical significance. The results of the analyses show that the factors most detrimental to the enterprise performance include the incompetence of responsible employees and the disregard to the customers‘ requirements.

Keywords: business value, financial ratios, performance measurement, value drivers

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744 A Critical Analysis of the Current Concept of Healthy Eating and Its Impact on Food Traditions

Authors: Carolina Gheller Miguens

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Feeding is, and should be, pleasurable for living beings so they desire to nourish themselves while preserving the continuity of the species. Social rites usually revolve around the table and are closely linked to the cultural traditions of each region and social group. Since the beginning, food has been closely linked with the products each region provides, and, also, related to the respective seasons of production. With the globalization and facilities of modern life we are able to find an ever increasing variety of products at any time of the year on supermarket shelves. These lifestyle changes end up directly influencing food traditions. With the era of uncontrolled obesity caused by the dazzle with the large and varied supply of low-priced to ultra-processed industrial products now in the past, today we are living a time when people are putting aside the pleasure of eating to exclusively eat food dictated by the media as healthy. Recently the medicalization of food in our society has become so present in daily life that almost without realizing we make food choices conditioned to the studies of the properties of these foods. The fact that people are more attentive to their health is interesting. However, when this care becomes an obsessive disorder, which imposes itself on the pleasure of eating and extinguishes traditional customs, it becomes dangerous for our recognition as citizens belonging to a culture and society. This new way of living generates a rupture with the social environment of origin, possibly exposing old traditions to oblivion after two or three generations. Based on these facts, the presented study analyzes these social transformations that occur in our society that triggered the current medicalization of food. In order to clarify what is actually a healthy diet, this research proposes a critical analysis on the subject aiming to understand nutritional rationality and relate how it acts in the medicalization of food. A wide bibliographic review on the subject was carried out followed by an exploratory research in online (especially social) media, a relevant source in this context due to the perceived influence of such media in contemporary eating habits. Finally, this data was crossed, critically analyzing the current situation of the concept of healthy eating and medicalization of food. Throughout this research, it was noticed that people are increasingly seeking information about the nutritional properties of food, but instead of seeking the benefits of products that traditionally eat in their social environment, they incorporate external elements that often bring benefits similar to the food already consumed. This is because the access to information is directed by the media and exalts the exotic, since this arouses more interest of the population in general. Efforts must be made to clarify that traditional products are also healthy foods, rich in history, memory and tradition and cannot be replaced by a standardized diet little concerned with the construction of taste and pleasure, having a relationship with food as if it were a Medicinal product.

Keywords: food traditions, food transformations, healthy eating, medicalization of food

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743 Planckian Dissipation in Bi₂Sr₂Ca₂Cu₃O₁₀₋δ

Authors: Lalita, Niladri Sarkar, Subhasis Ghosh

Abstract:

Since the discovery of high temperature superconductivity (HTSC) in cuprates, several aspects of this phenomena have fascinated physics community. The most debated one is the linear temperature dependence of normal state resistivity over wide range of temperature in violation of with Fermi liquid theory. The linear-in-T resistivity (LITR) is the indication of strongly correlated metallic, known as “strange metal”, attributed to non Fermi liquid theory (NFL). The proximity of superconductivity to LITR suggests that there may be underlying common origin. The LITR has been shown to be due to unknown dissipative phenomena, restricted by quantum mechanics and commonly known as ‘‘Planckian dissipation” , the term first coined by Zaanen and the associated inelastic scattering time τ and given by 1/τ=αkBT/ℏ, where ℏ, kB and α are reduced Planck’s constant, Boltzmann constant and a dimensionless constant of order of unity, respectively. Since the first report, experimental support for α ~ 1 is appearing in literature. There are several striking issues which remain to be resolved if we desire to find out or at least get a clue towards microscopic origin of maximal dissipation in cuprates. (i) Universality of α ~ 1, recently some doubts have been raised in some cases. (ii) So far, Planckian dissipation has been demonstrated in overdoped Cuprates, but if the proximity to quantum criticality is important, then Planckian dissipation should be observed in optimally doped and marginally underdoped cuprates. The link between Planckian dissipation and quantum criticality still remains an open problem. (iii) Validity of Planckian dissipation in all cuprates is an important issue. Here, we report reversible change in the superconducting behavior of high temperature superconductor Bi2Sr2Ca2Cu3O10+δ (Bi-2223) under dynamic doping induced by photo-excitation. Two doped Bi-223 samples, which are x = 0.16 (optimal-doped), x = 0.145 (marginal-doped) have been used for this investigation. It is realized that steady state photo-excitation converts magnetic Cu2+ ions to nonmagnetic Cu1+ ions which reduces superconducting transition temperature (Tc) by killing superfluid density. In Bi-2223, one would expect the maximum of suppression of Tc should be at charge transfer gap. We have observed suppression of Tc starts at 2eV, which is the charge transfer gap in Bi-2223. We attribute this transition due to Cu-3d9(Cu2+) to Cu-3d10(Cu+), known as d9 − d10 L transition, photoexcitation makes some Cu ions in CuO2 planes as spinless non-magnetic potential perturbation as Zn2+ does in CuO2 plane in case Zn-doped cuprates. The resistivity varies linearly with temperature with or without photo-excitation. Tc can be varied by almost by 40K be photoexcitation. Superconductivity can be destroyed completely by introducing ≈ 2% of Cu1+ ions for this range of doping. With this controlled variation of Tc and resistivity, detailed investigation has been carried out to reveal Planckian dissipation underdoped to optimally doped Bi-2223. The most important aspect of this investigation is that we could vary Tc dynamically and reversibly, so that LITR and associated Planckian dissipation can be studied over wide ranges of Tc without changing the doping chemically.

Keywords: linear resistivity, HTSC, Planckian dissipation, strange metal

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742 Influence of Recycled Concrete Aggregate Content on the Rebar/Concrete Bond Properties through Pull-Out Tests and Acoustic Emission Measurements

Authors: L. Chiriatti, H. Hafid, H. R. Mercado-Mendoza, K. L. Apedo, C. Fond, F. Feugeas

Abstract:

Substituting natural aggregate with recycled aggregate coming from concrete demolition represents a promising alternative to face the issues of both the depletion of natural resources and the congestion of waste storage facilities. However, the crushing process of concrete demolition waste, currently in use to produce recycled concrete aggregate, does not allow the complete separation of natural aggregate from a variable amount of adhered mortar. Given the physicochemical characteristics of the latter, the introduction of recycled concrete aggregate into a concrete mix modifies, to a certain extent, both fresh and hardened concrete properties. As a consequence, the behavior of recycled reinforced concrete members could likely be influenced by the specificities of recycled concrete aggregates. Beyond the mechanical properties of concrete, and as a result of the composite character of reinforced concrete, the bond characteristics at the rebar/concrete interface have to be taken into account in an attempt to describe accurately the mechanical response of recycled reinforced concrete members. Hence, a comparative experimental campaign, including 16 pull-out tests, was carried out. Four concrete mixes with different recycled concrete aggregate content were tested. The main mechanical properties (compressive strength, tensile strength, Young’s modulus) of each concrete mix were measured through standard procedures. A single 14-mm-diameter ribbed rebar, representative of the diameters commonly used in the domain of civil engineering, was embedded into a 200-mm-side concrete cube. The resulting concrete cover is intended to ensure a pull-out type failure (i.e. exceedance of the rebar/concrete interface shear strength). A pull-out test carried out on the 100% recycled concrete specimen was enriched with exploratory acoustic emission measurements. Acoustic event location was performed by means of eight piezoelectric transducers distributed over the whole surface of the specimen. The resulting map was compared to existing data related to natural aggregate concrete. Damage distribution around the reinforcement and main features of the characteristic bond stress/free-end slip curve appeared to be similar to previous results obtained through comparable studies carried out on natural aggregate concrete. This seems to show that the usual bond mechanism sequence (‘chemical adhesion’, mechanical interlocking and friction) remains unchanged despite the addition of recycled concrete aggregate. However, the results also suggest that bond efficiency seems somewhat improved through the use of recycled concrete aggregate. This observation appears to be counter-intuitive with regard to the diminution of the main concrete mechanical properties with the recycled concrete aggregate content. As a consequence, the impact of recycled concrete aggregate content on bond characteristics seemingly represents an important factor which should be taken into account and likely to be further explored in order to determine flexural parameters such as deflection or crack distribution.

Keywords: acoustic emission monitoring, high-bond steel rebar, pull-out test, recycled aggregate concrete

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741 Devulcanization of Waste Rubber Using Thermomechanical Method Combined with Supercritical CO₂

Authors: L. Asaro, M. Gratton, S. Seghar, N. Poirot, N. Ait Hocine

Abstract:

Rubber waste disposal is an environmental problem. Particularly, many researches are centered in the management of discarded tires. In spite of all different ways of handling used tires, the most common is to deposit them in a landfill, creating a stock of tires. These stocks can cause fire danger and provide ambient for rodents, mosquitoes and other pests, causing health hazards and environmental problems. Because of the three-dimensional structure of the rubbers and their specific composition that include several additives, their recycling is a current technological challenge. The technique which can break down the crosslink bonds in the rubber is called devulcanization. Strictly, devulcanization can be defined as a process where poly-, di-, and mono-sulfidic bonds, formed during vulcanization, are totally or partially broken. In the recent years, super critical carbon dioxide (scCO₂) was proposed as a green devulcanization atmosphere. This is because it is chemically inactive, nontoxic, nonflammable and inexpensive. Its critical point can be easily reached (31.1 °C and 7.38 MPa), and residual scCO₂ in the devulcanized rubber can be easily and rapidly removed by releasing pressure. In this study thermomechanical devulcanization of ground tire rubber (GTR) was performed in a twin screw extruder under diverse operation conditions. Supercritical CO₂ was added in different quantities to promote the devulcanization. Temperature, screw speed and quantity of CO₂ were the parameters that were varied during the process. The devulcanized rubber was characterized by its devulcanization percent and crosslink density by swelling in toluene. Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and Gel permeation chromatography (GPC) were also done, and the results were related with the Mooney viscosity. The results showed that the crosslink density decreases as the extruder temperature and speed increases, and, as expected, the soluble fraction increase with both parameters. The Mooney viscosity of the devulcanized rubber decreases as the extruder temperature increases. The reached values were in good correlation (R= 0.96) with de the soluble fraction. In order to analyze if the devulcanization was caused by main chains or crosslink scission, the Horikx's theory was used. Results showed that all tests fall in the curve that corresponds to the sulfur bond scission, which indicates that the devulcanization has successfully happened without degradation of the rubber. In the spectra obtained by FTIR, it was observed that none of the characteristic peaks of the GTR were modified by the different devulcanization conditions. This was expected, because due to the low sulfur content (~1.4 phr) and the multiphasic composition of the GTR, it is very difficult to evaluate the devulcanization by this technique. The lowest crosslink density was reached with 1 cm³/min of CO₂, and the power consumed in that process was also near to the minimum. These results encourage us to do further analyses to better understand the effect of the different conditions on the devulcanization process. The analysis is currently extended to monophasic rubbers as ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber (EPDM) and natural rubber (NR).

Keywords: devulcanization, recycling, rubber, waste

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740 Polyurethane Membrane Mechanical Property Study for a Novel Carotid Covered Stent

Authors: Keping Zuo, Jia Yin Chia, Gideon Praveen Kumar Vijayakumar, Foad Kabinejadian, Fangsen Cui, Pei Ho, Hwa Liang Leo

Abstract:

Carotid artery is the major vessel supplying blood to the brain. Carotid artery stenosis is one of the three major causes of stroke and the stroke is the fourth leading cause of death and the first leading cause of disability in most developed countries. Although there is an increasing interest in carotid artery stenting for treatment of cervical carotid artery bifurcation therosclerotic disease, currently available bare metal stents cannot provide an adequate protection against the detachment of the plaque fragments over diseased carotid artery, which could result in the formation of micro-emboli and subsequent stroke. Our research group has recently developed a novel preferential covered-stent for carotid artery aims to prevent friable fragments of atherosclerotic plaques from flowing into the cerebral circulation, and yet retaining the ability to preserve the flow of the external carotid artery. The preliminary animal studies have demonstrated the potential of this novel covered-stent design for the treatment of carotid therosclerotic stenosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the biomechanical property of PU membrane of different concentration configurations in order to refine the stent coating technique and enhance the clinical performance of our novel carotid covered stent. Results from this study also provide necessary material property information crucial for accurate simulation analysis for our stents. Method: Medical grade Polyurethane (ChronoFlex AR) was used to prepare PU membrane specimens. Different PU membrane configurations were subjected to uniaxial test: 22%, 16%, and 11% PU solution were made by mixing the original solution with proper amount of the Dimethylacetamide (DMAC). The specimens were then immersed in physiological saline solution for 24 hours before test. All specimens were moistened with saline solution before mounting and subsequent uniaxial testing. The specimens were preconditioned by loading the PU membrane sample to a peak stress of 5.5 Mpa for 10 consecutive cycles at a rate of 50 mm/min. The specimens were then stretched to failure at the same loading rate. Result: The results showed that the stress-strain response curves of all PU membrane samples exhibited nonlinear characteristic. For the ultimate failure stress, 22% PU membrane was significantly higher than 16% (p<0.05). In general, our preliminary results showed that lower concentration PU membrane is stiffer than the higher concentration one. From the perspective of mechanical properties, 22% PU membrane is a better choice for the covered stent. Interestingly, the hyperelastic Ogden model is able to accurately capture the nonlinear, isotropic stress-strain behavior of PU membrane with R2 of 0.9977 ± 0.00172. This result will be useful for future biomechanical analysis of our stent designs and will play an important role for computational modeling of our covered stent fatigue study.

Keywords: carotid artery, covered stent, nonlinear, hyperelastic, stress, strain

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739 The Charge Exchange and Mixture Formation Model in the ASz-62IR Radial Aircraft Engine

Authors: Pawel Magryta, Tytus Tulwin, Paweł Karpiński

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The ASz62IR engine is a radial aircraft engine with 9 cylinders. This object is produced by the Polish company WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A. This is engine is currently being developed by the above company and Lublin University of Technology. In order to provide an effective work of the technological development of this unit it was decided to made the simulation model. The model of ASz-62IR was developed with AVL BOOST software which is a tool dedicated to the one-dimensional modeling of internal combustion engines. This model can be used to calculate parameters of an air and fuel flow in an intake system including charging devices as well as combustion and exhaust flow to the environment. The main purpose of this model is the analysis of the charge exchange and mixture formation in this engine. For this purpose, the model consists of elements such: as air inlet, throttle system, compressor connector, charging compressor, inlet pipes and injectors, outlet pipes, fuel injection and model of fuel mixing and evaporation. The model of charge exchange and mixture formation was based on the model of mass flow rate in intake and exhaust pipes, and also on the calculation of gas properties values like gas constant or thermal capacity. This model was based on the equations to describe isentropic flow. The energy equation to describe flow under steady conditions was transformed into the mass flow equation. In the model the flow coefficient μσ was used, that varies with the stroke/valve opening and was determined in a steady flow state. The geometry of the inlet channels and other key components was mapped with reference to the technical documentation of the engine and empirical measurements of the structure elements. The volume of elements on the charge flow path between the air inlet and the exhaust outlet was measured by the CAD mapping of the structure. Taken from the technical documentation, the original characteristics of the compressor engine was entered into the model. Additionally, the model uses a general model for the transport of chemical compounds of the mixture. There are 7 compounds used, i.e. fuel, O2, N2, CO2, H2O, CO, H2. A gasoline fuel of a calorific value of 43.5 MJ/kg and an air mass fraction for stoichiometric mixture of 14.5 were used. Indirect injection into the intake manifold is used in this model. The model assumes the following simplifications: the mixture is homogenous at the beginning of combustion, accordingly, mixture stoichiometric coefficient A/F remains constant during combustion, combusted and non-combusted charges show identical pressures and temperatures although their compositions change. As a result of the simulation studies based on the model described above, the basic parameters of combustion process, charge exchange, mixture formation in cylinders were obtained. The AVL Boost software is very useful for the piston engine performance simulations. This work has been financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development, INNOLOT, under Grant Agreement No. INNOLOT/I/1/NCBR/2013.

Keywords: aviation propulsion, AVL Boost, engine model, charge exchange, mixture formation

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738 Design of a Small and Medium Enterprise Growth Prediction Model Based on Web Mining

Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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