Search results for: high risk youth

Authors: Belhadi Kamilia, Bendaoud Fadhila, Zidani Abla

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Birth defects are morphological abnormalities and functionally represent the main causes of morbidity and neonatal mortality. Was to analyze a number of maternal and newborn traits, assess the main causes and risk factors of her abnormalities and describe the clinical aspects and different types of birth defects. At maternity of Batna, our rate of congenital malformations is 19% of hospitalized new-borns Mono malformations are the most common, mainly 28% neurological malformations predominated by Spina Bifida and hydrocephalus, Poly malformations and accounted for only 15% of our study. 39,61% of newborns are premature. We found a male predominance, the sex ratio of 1.33 males to one girl, most by mothers over 35; the analysis of the pathological history has shown that the diseases encountered in mothers are pregnant HTA and diabetes. These are the most common diseases, with a percentage of ( 19% and 21%) Taking medication exists with a percentage of 28%. Concerning the diagnosis, the realization that antenatal ultrasound is carried out in 12% of cases, and the mortality rate is very high; most cases die at 45%. Congenital malformations remain a problem in terms of treatment and prognosis; this will allow investigators to investigate other factors, better understand the causes of congenital malformations and develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.

Keywords: malformation, congenital, newborn, risk factors, Wilaya of Batna, Algeria.

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Authors: Jun-Hyeon Cho, Ji-Yoon Lee, Young-Bo Sohn, Dong-Jin Shin, You-Chun Song, Dong-Soo Park, Min-Hee Nam, Young-Up Kwon

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Seed germination is a main factor in japonica rice cultivation. For japonica strains unlike indica lines, fast loss of germination ability during storage leads to risk of seeding and deterioration in the quality. To resolve these problems, germplasms screening for longevity was conducted using six days of compulsory aging stress of high temperature (50℃) and humidity (~95% RH). ‘Dharial’, a weedy rice collected in Bangladesh, was chosen as a source of seed longevity for long term storage. The strong germination trait originated from ‘Dharial’ was incorporated into Korean elite japonica cultivars, ‘Ilmi’ and ‘Gopum’, through backcross method. The germination ratio was evaluated after two years of room temperature storage conditions. A high germination ratio of 80.5% in donor plant of ‘Dharial’ and 77.3% in an introgression line were observed based on the two years of storage while the recurrent japonica cultivars, ‘Ilmi’ and ‘Gopum’, were failed in germination. As a result, we investigated the changes of quality affected by germination ability during storage. A gentle slope of palatability which is one of the measurement items for indirect selection indicator of high eating quality in japonica varieties was studied in a high germination ratio introgression line during storage. The introgression line could be useful to increase longevity and quality of japonica rice seed if molecular breeding strategy such as QTLs analysis is combined.

Keywords: rice, longevity, germination, storage

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Authors: F. Gökgöz, M. E. Atmaca

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Electricity plays an indispensable role in human life and the economy. It is a unique product or service that must be balanced instantaneously, as electricity is not stored, generation and consumption should be proportional. Effective and efficient use of electricity is very important not only for society, but also for the environment. A competitive electricity market is one of the best ways to provide a suitable platform for effective and efficient use of electricity. On the other hand, it carries some risks that should be carefully managed by the market players. Risk management is an essential part in market players’ decision making. In this paper, risk management through diversification is applied with the help of Markowitz’s Mean-variance, Down-side and Semi-variance methods for a case study. Performance of optimal electricity sale solutions are measured and evaluated via Sharpe-Ratio, and the optimal portfolio solutions are improved. Two years of historical weekdays’ price data of the Turkish Day Ahead Market are used to demonstrate the approach.

Keywords: electricity market, portfolio optimization, risk management in electricity market, sharpe ratio

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Authors: Boma Nellie S, Nambiar Ritu, K. Kanchanmala, T. Rashida, Israell Imelda, Moul Khusnud, Michael Marina

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Gestational diabetes (GDM) imparts an increased life long risk of developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease in women. Once diagnosed with GDM women have up to 74% increased cumulative risk developing T2DM in 10-15 years. Identifying women at increased risk of developing T2DM and offering them pharmacological and lifestyle management interventions will delay or eliminate the development of diabetes in this population. While ADA recommends that all gestational diabetics be offered postnatal screening, worldwide the screening rates from 35-75% and Al Rahba Hospital with a robust universal antenatal screening program for GDM was at a dismal 9% in 2011. A multidisciplinary team was put together involving OB/Gyn Physicians, Midwives, Nurses (ward and OPD) Diabetic Educators, Dietitians, Medical Records, Laboratory & IT with the implementation of multiple strategies to increase the uptake of postpartum screening of the gestational diabetic.

Keywords: GDM, postnatal screening, preventing type 2 diabetes, lifestyle management

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Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma

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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.

Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program

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Authors: A. H. Bekhet, N. Helmy

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Background: Physical therapists are knowledgeable in treatment and prevention of musculoskeletal injuries; however, they have occupational musculoskeletal injuries because Physical therapy profession requires effort that may lead to work-related musculoskeletal disorders. No previous studies among physical therapists have been reported in Egypt. We aim to assess the prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal disorders among physical therapist’s seniors versus internship students. Method: We conducted a cross-sectional study in faculty of physical therapy Cairo university Prevalence and risk factors of musculoskeletal injuries were assessed using self-administered questionnaire with closed-ended questions. Seniors therapist was defined as a physical therapist with more than 5 years of work experience. Data were analyzed using SPSS 22.0 for Windows. Results: The study included 106 physical therapists (Junior = 72; senior = 34), the mean age of senior therapists was 30.1 (SD 6.3) years and junior therapists were 22.8 (SD 2.4). Female subjects constituted 83.9% of the studied sample. The mean hours of contact with patients was higher among junior therapists 6.4 (SD 2.6) vs. 5.7 (SD 2.1) among senior therapists. The prevalence of a musculoskeletal injury, once or more in their lifetime, was significantly higher among senior therapists (86% vs. 66.7%; p = 0.04). The highest risk factor in increasing the symptoms of the injury among junior therapists was maintaining a position for a prolonged period of time at 28% while performing manual therapy techniques was the highest risk factor among senior therapists at 32%. 53% of senior therapists have limited their patient contact time as a result of their injury in comparison to 25% of junior therapists (p = 0.09). Conclusion: the presented study shows that the prevalence of musculoskeletal injuries, once or more in their lifetime, is significantly higher among senior therapists.

Keywords: musculoskeletal injuries, occupational injuries, physical therapists, work related disorders

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Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

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Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Chih-Hung Liang, Jung-Jung Chen, Shen-Shih Chiang

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Obesity is defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that presents a risk to health, which are major risk factors for a number of chronic diseases, including diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. Cordyceps militaris (CM) is a well-known traditional medicine in Asian countries and a rich source of biologically active components. Black rice (Oryza sativa L.) is a special cultivar of rice that contains rich anthocyanins and regarded as a health-promoting food in China and other Eastern. The aim of this study was to investigate the anti-obesity effect of Cordyceps militaris fermented black rice (CB) on HFD-induced BALB/c mice model. The results indicated that administration of low and high dosage of CB powder significantly reduced the body weights (7.38% and 7.78%), body fat ratio (2.37% and 2.78%), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels compared to the HF group (p<0.05). Histopathological analysis showed that the score of fatty liver in HF group (5.0) was significantly higher than CB groups (2.1 and 3.6) (p<0.05). In conclusion, Cordyceps militaris fermented black rice can reduce the body weight via inhibition of the fat accumulation in liver and body and possess the anti-obesity potency.

Keywords: Cordyceps militaris, black rice, obesity, HFD-induced mice

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Authors: D. Naranchimeg, G. Ulziisaikhan

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Student dropout problem has not been recently investigated within the Mongolian higher education. A student dropping out is a personal decision, but it may cause unemployment and other social problems including low quality of life because students who are not completed a degree cannot find better-paid jobs. The research aims to determine percentage of at-risk students, and understand reasons for dropouts and to find a way to predict. The study based on the students of the Mongolian National University of Education including its Arkhangai branch school, National University of Mongolia, Mongolian University of Life Sciences, Mongolian University of Science and Technology, Mongolian National University of Medical Science, Ikh Zasag International University, and Dornod University. We conducted the paper survey by method of random sampling and have surveyed about 100 students per university. The margin of error - 4 %, confidence level -90%, and sample size was 846, but we excluded 56 students from this study. Causes for exclusion were missing data on the questionnaire. The survey has totally 17 questions, 4 of which was demographic questions. The survey shows that 1.4% of the students always thought to dropout whereas 61.8% of them thought sometimes. Also, results of the research suggest that students’ dropouts from university do not have relationships with their sex, marital and social status, and peer and faculty climate, whereas it slightly depends on their chosen specialization. Finally, the paper presents the reasons for dropping out provided by the students. The main two reasons for dropouts are personal reasons related with choosing wrong study program, not liking the course they had chosen (50.38%), and financial difficulties (42.66%). These findings reveal the importance of early prevention of dropout where possible, combined with increased attention to high school students in choosing right for them study program, and targeted financial support for those who are at risk.

Keywords: at risk students, dropout, faculty climate, Mongolian universities, peer climate

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: Siddharth Jain, Abhenil Mittal, Surendra Kumar Sharma

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Background: With its recent emergence and re-emergence, dengue has become a major international public health concern, imposing significant financial burden especially in developing countries. Despite aggressive control measures in place, India experienced one of its largest outbreaks in 2015 with Delhi being most severely affected. There is a lack of reliable predictors of disease severity and mortality in dengue. The present study was carried out to identify these predictors during the 2015 outbreak. Methods: This prospective observational study conducted at an apex tertiary care center in Delhi, India included confirmed adult dengue patients admitted between August-November 2015. Patient demographics, clinical details, and laboratory findings were recorded in a predesigned proforma. Appropriate statistical tests were used to summarize and compare the clinical and laboratory characteristics and derive predictors of mortality and severe disease, while developing a clinical risk score for mortality. Serotype analysis was also done for 75 representative samples to identify the dominant serotypes. Results: Data of 369 patients were analyzed (mean age 30.9 years; 67% males). Of these, 198 (54%) patients had dengue fever, 125 (34%) had dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF Grade 1,2)and 46 (12%) developed dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Twenty two (6%) patients died. Late presentation to the hospital (≥5 days after onset) and dyspnoea at rest were identified as independent predictors of severe disease. Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. A clinical risk score was developed (12*age + 14*sensorium + 10*dyspnoea) which, if ≥ 22, predicted mortality with a high sensitivity (81.8%) and specificity (79.2%). The predominant serotypes in Delhi (2015) were DENV-2 and DENV-4. Conclusion: Age ≥ 24 years, dyspnoea at rest and altered sensorium were identified as independent predictors of mortality. Platelet counts did not determine the outcome in dengue patients. Timely referral/access to health care is important. Development and use of validated predictors of disease severity and simple clinical risk scores, which can be applied in all healthcare settings, can help minimize mortality and morbidity, especially in resource limited settings.

Keywords: dengue, mortality, predictors, severity

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Authors: Norsuhana Omar, Amilia Aminuddina Zaiton Zakaria, Raifana Rosa Mohamad Sattar, Kalaivani Chellappan, Mohd Alauddin Mohd Ali, Norizam Salamt, Zanariyah Asmawi, Norliza Saari, Aini Farzana Zulkefli, Nor Anita Megat Mohd. Nordin

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Inflammation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of vascular dysfunction leading to arterial stiffness. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index (AS), as tools for the assessment of vascular damages are widely used and have been shown to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD). C-reactive protein (CRP) is a marker of inflammation. Several studies noted that regular exercise is associated with reduced arterial stiffness. The lack of exercise among Malaysians and the increasing CVD morbidity and mortality among young men are of concern. In Malaysia data on the workplace exercise intervention is scarce. A programme was designed to enable subjects to increase their level of walking as part of their daily work routine and self-monitored by using pedometers. The aim of this study to evaluate the reducing of inflammation by measuring CRP and improvement arterial stiffness measured by carotid femoral PWV (PWVCF) and AI. A total of 70 young men (20 - 40 years) who were sedentary, achieving less than 5,000 steps/day in casual walking with 2 or more cardiovascular risk factors were recruited in Institute of Vocational Skills for Youth (IKBN Hulu Langat). Subjects were randomly assigned to a control (CG) (n=34; no change in walking) and pedometer group (PG) (n=36; minimum target: 8,000 steps/day). The CRP was measured by using immunological method while PWVCF and AI were measured using Vicorder. All parameters were measured at baseline and after 12 weeks. Data for analysis was conducted using Statistical Package of Social Sciences Version 22 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). At post intervention, the CG step counts were similar (4983 ± 366vs 5697 ± 407steps/day). The PG increased step count from 4996 ± 805 to 10,128 ±511 steps/day (P<0.001). The PG showed significant improvement in anthropometric variables and lipid (time and group effect p<0.001). For vascular assessment, the PG showed significantly decreased for time and effect (p<0.001) for PWV (7.21± 0.83 to 6.42 ± 0.89) m/s; AI (11.88± 6.25 to 8.83 ± 3.7) % and CRP (pre= 2.28 ± 3.09, post=1.08± 1.37mg/L). However, no changes were seen in CG. As a conclusion, a pedometer-based walking programme may be an effective strategy for promoting increased daily physical activity which reduces cardiovascular risk markers and thus improve cardiovascular health in terms of inflammation and arterial stiffness. The community intervention for health maintenance has potential to adopt walking as an exercise and adopting vascular fitness index as the performance measuring tools.

Keywords: arterial stiffness, exercise, inflammation, pedometer

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Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

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The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

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Authors: Asma Naseer Cheema, Attya Bhatti, Jabar Ali, John Peter

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Background: High cholesterol levels, endothelial dysfunction, inefficient coagulation cascade and hyper inflammatory response all are the basis of coronary artery disease (CAD). Several studies are carried out to see the genetic influence of these factors on disease outcome. Objective: The objective of our study was to see the association of 10 putative loci with coronary artery disease in our population. Materials & Methods: We screened our population for 10 putative loci of CAD showing significant association (p < 5x10-8) with candidate genes (regulating the cholesterol metabolism, endothelial function, coagulation cascade and inflammatory response of body). Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium in cases and controls s were estimated separately. Approximately 5-10 ng of dried DNA in 384 well plate format was used to genotype each sample on the Sequenom iPLEX assay at University of Pittsburgh Genomics and Proteomics Core Laboratories. It was built on single-base primer extension with the MALDI-TOF MS detection possessing high sensitivity and specificity. The SNPs were genotyped through Taqman assay. Hardy Weinberg test was applied. The 10 SNPs were selected as genetic markers for this study (rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650). Results: Mean age of the patient was 52 ± 11 years. Blood pressure and positive family history was found a significant risk factor for CAD. None of the selected SNPs showed significant association with coronary artery disease in our population (p>0.05). Conclusion: rs579459, rs1561198, rs2954029, rs1122608, rs17114036, rs9515203, rs10947789, rs7173743, rs2895811, rs2075650 are not significant genetic markers for CAD in our population.

Keywords: CAD, genetic markers, loci, risk factors

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Authors: Frederic Jumelle, Kelvin So, Didan Deng

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A method and system for neuropsychological performance test, comprising a mobile terminal, used to interact with a cloud server which stores user information and is logged into by the user through the terminal device; the user information is directly accessed through the terminal device and is processed by artificial neural network, and the user information comprises user facial emotions information, performance test answers information and user chronometrics. This assessment is used to evaluate the cognitive performance and emotional response of the subject to a series of dichotomous questions describing various situations of daily life and challenging the users' knowledge, values, ethics, and principles. In industrial applications, the timing of this assessment will depend on the users' need to obtain a service from a provider, such as opening a bank account, getting a mortgage or an insurance policy, authenticating clearance at work, or securing online payments.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, neurofinance, neuropsychology, risk management

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Authors: Parth Patel, Ying Zhu

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Distributed systems have become ubiquitous, and they continue their growth through a range of services. With advances in resource virtualization technology such as Virtual Machines (VM) and software containers, developers no longer require high-end servers to test and develop distributed software. Even in commercial production, virtualization has streamlined the process of rapid deployment and service management. This paper introduces a distributed systems testbed that utilizes virtualization to enable distributed systems development on commodity computers. The testbed can be used to develop new services, implement theoretical distributed systems concepts for understanding, and experiment with virtual network topologies. We show its versatility through two case studies that utilize the testbed for implementing a theoretical algorithm and developing our own methodology to find high-risk edges. The results of using the testbed for these use cases have proven the effectiveness and versatility of this testbed across a range of scenarios.

Keywords: distributed systems, experimental testbed, peer-to-peer networks, virtual container technology

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Lamia Bouzgarrou, Amira Omrane, Haithem Kalel, Salma Kammoun

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Background: During recent decades, mechanical and electrical industrial sector has greatly expanded with a significant employability potential. However, this sector faces the increasing prevalence of musculoskeletal disorders with heavy consequences associated with direct and indirect costs. Objective: The current intervention was motivated by large musculoskeletal upper limbs and back disorders frequency among the operators of an assembly workshop in a leader company specialized in sanitary equipment and water and gas connections. We aimed to identify biomechanical constraints among these operators through activity and biomechanical exposures semi-quantitative analysis based on video recordings and MUSKA-TMS software. Methods: We conducted, open observations and exploratory interviews at first, in order to overall understand work situation. Then, we analyzed operator’s activity through systematic observations and interviews. Finally, we conducted a semi-quantitative biomechanical constraints analysis with MUSKA-TMS software after representative activity period video recording. The assessment of biomechanical constrains was based on different criteria; biomechanical characteristics (work positions), aggravating factor (cold, vibration, stress, etc.) and exposure time (duration and frequency of solicitations, recovery phase); with a synthetic score of risk level variable from 1 to 4 (1: low risk of developing MSD and 4: high risk). Results: Semi-quantitative analysis objective many elementary operations with higher biomechanical constrains like high repetitiveness, insufficient recovery time and constraining angulation of shoulders, wrists and cervical spine. Among these risky elementary operations we sited the assembly of sleeve with the body, the assembly of axis, and the control on testing table of gas valves. Transformation of work situations were recommended, covering both the redevelopment of industrial areas and the integration of new tools and equipment of mechanical handling that reduces operator exposure to vibration. Conclusion: Musculoskeletal disorders are complex and costly disorders. Moreover, an approach centered on the observation of the work can promote the interdisciplinary dialogue and exchange between actors with the objective to maximize the performance of a company and improve the quality of life of operators.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, biomechanical constrains, semi-quantitative analysis, ergonomics

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem

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Background: Inattentive food choices and engagement in excessive physical activities by male athletes can potentially lead to adverse health consequences. Objective: The aim was to ascertain the occurrence of risk factors associated with the Male Athlete Triad among young elite athletes in Pakistan. Methodology: In 2018, a cross-sectional study based on questionnaires was conducted at the Pakistan Sports Board. The study aimed to explore the risk factors related to the Male Athlete Triad in young elite athletes who were part of national training camps in major metropolitan areas. The study included proficient male elite athletes aged 18 to 25 years, capable of understanding the English questionnaire. The athletes completed a survey encompassing aspects like demographic information, educational background, Body Mass Index (BMI), sports involvement, and hours of participation. Additionally, they filled out the Eating Attitude Test-26 (EAT-26) and questionnaires assessing risks of amenorrhea and low bone mineral density. The prevalence of risk factors for each of the three components was individually evaluated. The collected data underwent analysis using SPSS-20, with descriptive statistics being applied. Results: The study comprised a sample of 90 elite athletes (mean age: 23.57 ± 2.37 years, mean BMI: 21.97 ± 1.90) engaged in various sports. The EAT-26 results indicated that 50% of athletes were at risk of developing an eating disorder. Moreover, 83.3% exhibited disordered eating behaviors that necessitated referral. Risks for amenorrhea were observed in 15% of the participants, and regarding low bone mineral density, notable risks were absent except for the consumption of caffeinated beverages, which was noted in 51.7% of participants. Conclusion: The study identified a significant prevalence of disordered eating risk among male elite athletes in Pakistan. However, the risks associated with amenorrhea and low bone mineral density were not a major concern in this particular group.

Keywords: Pakistan, osteoporosis, female athlete triad, bone mineral density, athlete, amenorrhea, eating disorders

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index

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Authors: Muhammad Saleem Ullah Khan Sumbal, Eric Tsui, Ricky Cheong, Eric See To

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Organizations are posed to a threat of valuable knowledge loss when employees leave either due to retirement, resignation, job change or because of disabilities e.g. death, etc. Due to changing economic conditions, globalization, and aging workforce, organizations are facing challenges regarding retention of valuable knowledge. On the one hand, large number of employees are going to retire in the organizations whereas on the other hand, younger generation does not want to work in a company for a long time and there is an increasing trend of frequent job change among the new generation. Because of these factors, organizations need to make sure that they capture the knowledge of employee before (s)he walks out of the door. The first step in this process is to know what type of knowledge employee possesses and whether this knowledge is important for the organization. Researchers reveal in the literature that despite the serious consequences of knowledge loss in terms of organizational productivity and competitive advantage, there has not been much work done in the area of knowledge loss assessment of departing employees. An important step in the knowledge retention process is to determine the critical ‘at risk’ knowledge. Thus, knowledge loss risk assessment is a process by which organizations can gauge the importance of knowledge of the departing employee. The purpose of this study is to explore this topic of knowledge loss risk assessment by conducting a qualitative study in oil and gas sector. By engaging in dialogues with managers and executives of the organizations through in-depth interviews and adopting a grounded methodology approach, the research will explore; i) Are there any measures adopted by organizations to assess the risk of knowledge loss from departing employees? ii) Which factors are crucial for knowledge loss assessment in the organizations? iii) How can we prioritize the employees for knowledge retention according to their criticality? Grounded theory approach is used when there is not much knowledge available in the area under research and thus new knowledge is generated about the topic through an in-depth exploration of the topic by using methods such as interviews and using a systematic approach to analyze the data. The outcome of the study will generate a model for the risk of knowledge loss through factors such as the likelihood of knowledge loss, the consequence/impact of knowledge loss and quality of the knowledge loss of departing employees. Initial results show that knowledge loss assessment is quite crucial for the organizations and it helps in determining what types of knowledge employees possess e.g. organizations knowledge, subject matter expertise or relationships knowledge. Based on that, it can be assessed which employee is more important for the organizations and how to prioritize the knowledge retention process for departing employees.

Keywords: knowledge loss, risk assessment, departing employees, Hong Kong organizations

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Authors: G. Kloudova, S. Kozlova, M. Stehlik

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Pilots are operating in a high-risk environment rich in potential stressors, which negatively affect aviation safety and the mental health of pilots. In the research conducted, the pilots were offered mental training biofeedback therapy. Biofeedback is an objective tool to measure physiological responses to stress. After only six sessions, all of the pilots tested showed significant differences between their initial condition and their condition after therapy. The biggest improvement was found in decreased heart rate (in 83.3% of tested pilots) and respiration rate (66.7%), which are the best indicators of anxiety states and panic attacks. To incorporate all of the variables, we correlated the measured physiological state of the pilots with their personality traits. Surprisingly, we found a high correlation with peripheral temperature and confidence (0.98) and with heart rate and aggressiveness (0.97). A retest made after a one-year interval showed that in majority of the subjects tested their acquired self-regulation ability had been internalized.

Keywords: aviation, biofeedback, mental workload, performance psychology

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Authors: Cihat Aşan

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Istanbul Strait is a crucial and narrow waterway, not only having a role in linking two continents but also has a crossover mission for the petroleum, which is the biggest energy resource, between its supply and demand sources. Besides its substantial features, sensitivities like around 18 million populations in surroundings, military facilities, ports, oil lay down areas etc. also brings the high risk to use of Istanbul Strait. Based on the statistics of Turkish Ministry of Transportation, Maritime and Communication, although the number of vessel passage in Istanbul Strait is declining, tonnage of hazardous and flammable cargo like oil and chemical transportation is increasing and subsequently the risk of oil pollution, loss of life and property is also rising. Based on the mentioned above; it is crucial to be prepared for the initial and subsequent response to eventual ship sourced oil spill which may cause to block the Strait for an unbearable duration. In this study; preconditioned Istanbul Strait sensitive areas studies has been taken into account and possible oil spill scenario is loaded to PISCES 2 (Potential Incident Simulation Control and Evaluation System) decision support system for the determined specific sea area. Consequences of the simulation like oil expanding process, required number and types of assets to response, had in hand and evaluated.

Keywords: Istanbul strait, oil spill, PISCES simulator, initial response

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Authors: Yuanping Yang, Ruolin Zhou, Xingyu Liu, Lianbin Wu

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Based on the challenges of silanization of pharmaceutical glass packaging materials, the silicone oil high-temperature baking method consumes a lot of energy; silicone oil is generally physically adsorbed on the inner surface of the medical vials, leading to protein adsorption on the surface of the silicone oil and fall off, so that the number of particles in the drug solution increases, which brings potential risks to people. In this paper, a new silanizing method is proposed. High-efficiency silanization is achieved by grafting trimethylsilyl groups to the inner surface of medical vials by chemical bond at low temperatures. The inner wall of the vial successfully obtained stable hydrophobicity, and the water contact Angle of the surface reached 100°~110°. With the increase of silicified reagent concentration, the water resistance of corresponding treatment vials increased gradually. This treatment can effectively reduce the risk of pH value increase and sodium ion leaching.

Keywords: low-temperature silanization, medical vials, chemical bonding, hydrophobicity

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Authors: Jean Akiana, Digne Merveille Nganga Bouanga, Nardiouf Sjelin Nsana, Wilfrid Sapromet Ngoubili, Chyvanelle Ndous Akiridzo, Vishnou Reize Ampiri, Henri-Joseph Parra, Florence Fenollar, Didier Raoult, Oleg Mediannikov, Cheikh Sadhibou Sokhna

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Schistosoma haematobium schistosomiasis is an endemic disease in which the level of human exposure, incidence, and fatality attributed to it remains, unfortunately, high worldwide. The erection of hydroelectric infrastructures constitute a major factor in the emergence of this disease. In the context of the Republic of the Congo, which considers industrialization and modernization as two essential pillars of development, building the hydroelectric dams of Liouesso (19 Mw) and the feasibility studies of the dams of Chollet (600MW) in the Sangha, of Sounda (1000MW) in Kouilou and Kouembali (150MW) on Lefini is necessary to increase the country's energy capacities. Likewise, the urbanization of former endemic localities should take into account the maintenance of contamination points. However, health impact studies on schistosomiasis epidemiology in general and urinary bilharzia, in particular, have never been carried out in these areas, neither before nor after the erection of those dams. Participants benefited from an investigative questionnaire, urinalysis both by dipstick and urine filtrate examined under a microscope. Assessment of the genetic diversity of schistosoma species populations was considered as well as PCR analysis to confirm the test strip and microscopy tests. 405 participants were registered in five localities. The sampling was made up of a balanced population in terms of male/female ratio, which is around 1. The prevalence rate was 45% (55/123) in Nkayi, 10.40% (11/106) in Loudima, 1 case in Mbomo (West Cuvette), which would probably be imported, zero in Liouesso and Kabo. The highest oviuria (number of eggs per volume of urine) is 150 S. haematobium eggs/10ml in Nkayi, apart from the case of imported Mbomo, imported from Gabon, which has 160 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. The lowest oviuria was 2 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program.

Keywords: Bilharzia, Schistosoma haematobium, oviuria, urbanization, Congo

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Authors: Xiaojing Wang, Ann-Marie Ward, Tony Wall

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The problem of over-indebtedness has increased since deregulation of the banking industry in the 1980s, and now it has become a major problem for most countries in Europe, including Germany. Consumer debt issues have attracted not only the attention of academics but also government and debt counselling institutions. Overall, this research aims to contribute to the knowledge gap regarding the causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany and to develop predictive models for assessing consumer over-indebtedness risk at consumer level. The situation of consumer over-indebtedness is serious in Germany. The relatively high level of social welfare support in Germany suggests that consumer debt problems are caused by other factors, other than just over-spending and income volatility. Prior literature suggests that the overall stability of the economy and level of welfare support for individuals from the structural environment contributes to consumers’ debt problems. In terms of cultural influence, the conspicuous consumption theory in consumer behaviour suggests that consumers would spend more than their means to be seen as similar profiles to consumers in a higher socio-economic class. This results in consumers taking on more debt than they can afford, and eventually becoming over-indebted. Studies have also shown that financial literacy is negatively related to consumer over-indebtedness risk. Whilst prior literature has examined structural and cultural influences respectively, no study has taken a collective approach. To address this gap, a model is developed to investigate the association between consumer over-indebtedness and proxies for influences from the structural and cultural environment based on the above theories. The model also controls for consumer demographic characteristics identified as being of influence in prior literature, such as gender and age, and adverse shocks, such as divorce or bereavement in the household. Benefiting from SOEP regional data, this study is able to conduct quantitative empirical analysis to test both structural and cultural influences at a localised level. Using German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study data from 2006 to 2016, this study finds that social benefits, financial literacy and the existence of conspicuous consumption all contribute to being over-indebted. Generally speaking, the risk of becoming over-indebted is high when consumers are in a low-welfare community, have little awareness of their own financial situation and always over-spend. In order to tackle the problem of over-indebtedness, countermeasures can be taken, for example, increasing consumers’ financial awareness, and the level of welfare support. By analysing causes of consumer over-indebtedness in Germany, this study also provides new insights on the nature and underlying causes of consumer debt issues in Europe.

Keywords: consumer, debt, financial literacy, socio-economic

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Authors: S. Anastasiou, C. Nathanailides, S. Logothetis, G. Kanlis

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The Greek aquaculture industry is second most important economic sector for the growth of the Greek Economy. The purpose of the present work is to present some data for the management challenges that the Aquaculture industry in Greece is currently facing. Currently the Greek aquaculture industry is going through a series of mergers and restructure. The financial status of the different aquaculture companies, the working conditions and management practices may vary according to lending exposure, market mix, company size, and technological parameters of the different fish farm units and rearing systems. Frequently, the aquaculture personnel are exposed to harsh environmental conditions and to occupational risk. Furthermore, there is pressure on the personnel of fish farms to constantly improve their production efficiency and to enhance their work skills to the new methods and practices which are adopted by the aquaculture industry. There is some data to suggest the existence of gender inequality in the workforce of Greek fish farms. Women are paid less, frequently absent higher managerial positions and most of the male workmates consider the job to harsh for women. Nevertheless, high level of job satisfaction was observed in both men and women. This high level of job satisfaction of the aquaculture personnel can be attributed, at least partially, to the nature of the work which has a very distinct working environment but most of the staff has very positive experiences with the interaction with their workmates and the satisfaction of being in a business which always exceeds its production target. Indeed, there is some evidence to suggest that the Greek aquaculture industry is always exceeding its production targets, while it is rapidly adopting and improving new technology, constantly improving of human resources management practices, which include constant training of the staff, very good communication channels between management and the personnel and reducing the risk of occupational hazard to the aquaculture personnel. All these parameters of management may have a determining role for the volume and quality of the production and future of this sector in Greece.

Keywords: aquaculture, fish quality, management, production targets

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Authors: Bassey Odiong Akan

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In recent decades potentially significant changes have taken place in the world of work and these have led to the emergence of new challenges in occupational safety and health. The working environment is now not only wroth with concerns about physical, biological and chemical risks but also emerging risks which are completely new risks that have never been seen before or previously known risks that are evolving in unexpected ways with unanticipated consequences. Psychosocial risk factors and its attendant hazards happen to be one of them and can impact health directly or indirectly, mediated by work-related stress. These risks are related to the way work is designed, organised and managed, as well as the economic and social contexts of work. It has become necessary to identify, explore and anticipate the dynamics of these risks factors and hazards with regards to how it affects women. This presentation is a review of information gathered from books of distinguished authors, research work and scientific/professional journals on the psychosocial work environment intended as a guide to stimulate discussion, raise awareness and encourage research and action at different levels.

Keywords: emerging risks, psychosocial hazards, psychosocial risk factors, work related stress

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Mohammed Bakhit Kashoob, Mohammed Salim Al-Maashani, Ahmed Abdullah Al-Marhoon

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The use of Geographic Information System (GIS) tools in the analysis of traffic crash data can help to identify locations or hotspots with high instances or risk of traffic crashes. The identification of traffic crash hotspots can effectively improve road safety measures. Mapping of road traffic crash hotspots can help the concerned authorities to give priority and take targeted measures and improvements to the road structure at these locations to reduce traffic crashes and fatalities. In Oman, there are countless rural roads that have more risks for traveling vehicles compared to urban roads. The likelihood of traffic crashes as well as fatality rate may increase with the presence of risks that are associated with the rural type of community. In this paper, the traffic crash hotspots on rural roads in Oman are specified using spatial analysis methods in GIS and traffic crash data. These hotspots are ranked based on the frequency of traffic crash occurrence (i.e., number of traffic crashes) and the rate of fatalities. The result of this study presents a map visualization of locations on rural roads with high traffic crashes and high fatalities rates.

Keywords: road safety, rural roads, traffic crash, GIS tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 132