Search results for: tomato yield prediction

Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Adil Balla Elkrail

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Visual MODFLOW computer codes were selected to simulate head distribution, calculate the groundwater budgets of the area, and evaluate the effect of external stresses on the groundwater head and to demonstrate how the groundwater model can be used as a comparative technique in order to optimize utilization of the groundwater resource. A conceptual model of the study area, aquifer parameters, boundary, and initial conditions were used to simulate the flow model. The trial-and-error technique was used to calibrate the model. The most important criteria used to check the calibrated model were Root Mean Square error (RMS), Mean Absolute error (AM), Normalized Root Mean Square error (NRMS) and mass balance. The maps of the simulated heads elaborated acceptable model calibration compared to observed heads map. A time length of eight years and the observed heads of the year 2004 were used for model prediction. The predictive simulation showed that the continuation of pumping will cause relatively high changes in head distribution and components of groundwater budget whereas, the low deficit computed (7122 m3/d) between inflows and outflows cannot create a significant drawdown of the potentiometric level. Hence, the area under consideration may represent a high permeability and productive zone and strongly recommended for further groundwater development.

Keywords: aquifers, model simulation, groundwater, calibrations, trail-and- error, prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Masoud Rafiee

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Study of the effect of vermin compost on yield, and Land equivalent ration (LER) of chickpea-barley mixed cropping under normal dry land condition can be useful in order to increase qualitative and quantitative performance. In this case, two factors include fertilizer (vermicompost biological fertilizer, ammonium phosphate chemical fertilizer, vermicompost + %75 chemical fertilizer) and chickpea + barley mixed cropping (sole chickpea, %75 chickpea: %25 barley, %50 chickpea: %50 barley, %25 chickpea: %75 barley, and sole barley) in RCBD in three replications in two experiments include normal and dry land conditions were studied. Result showed that total LER base on dry matter was affected by environment and mixed cropping interaction and was more than 1 in all mixed cropping treatments. In different mixed cropping rates, wet forage yield decreased by decreasing chickpea ratio as well as increasing barley ratio. Total LER mean in base on forage dry matter in mixed-, chemical-, and vermicompost fertilizer treatments were 1.12, 1.05 and 1.10 in normal condition and 1.15, 1.08 and 1.14 in dry land condition, respectively, represented the important of biological fertilizer in mixed cropping systems.

Keywords: land equivalent ration, biological fertilizer, mixed cropping systems, water stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Francisco Reyes, Hector Ramirez

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In the coastal zones are home to mangrove swamps, coral reefs, and seagrass ecosystems, which are the most biodiverse and fragile on the planet. These areas support a great diversity of marine life; they are also extraordinarily important for humans in the provision of food, water, wood, and other associated goods and services; they also contribute to climate regulation. The lack of an automated model that generates information on the dynamics of changes in coastlines and coastal erosion is identified as a central problem. Coastlines were determined from 1984 to 2020 on the Google Earth platform Engine from Landsat and Sentinel images, using the Normalized Differential Water Index (MNDWI) and Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) v5.0. Starting from the 2020 coastline, the 10-year prediction (Year 2031) was determined with the erosion of 238.32 hectares and an accretion of 181.96 hectares, while the 20-year prediction (Year 2041) will be presented an erosion of 544.04 hectares and an accretion of 133.94 hectares. The erosion and accretion of Playa Muelle in the municipality of Puerto Colombia were established, which will register the highest value of erosion. The coverage that presented the greatest change was that of artificialized Territories.

Keywords: coastline, coastal erosion, MNDWI, Google Earth Engine, Colombia

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Petr Konvalina, Jan Moudry

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As organic farmers are searching foregoing crops for horticultural crops, there is possible to choice neglected wheat species and also have a new market and sale opportunities. Concerning wheat, there are landraces so called hulled wheat species (einkorn, emmer wheat, spelt) comprising parts of collections of the world gene banks. The advantage of this wheat species are small demands on growing conditions and also droughtiness in conditions of changing climate. Our paper aims at presenting the results of the study and the assessment of spring wheat forms, four einkorn cultivars, eight emmer wheat cultivars, seven spelt wheat cultivars in particular, as compared to modern bread wheat variety. Small-plot trials were established at two different localities within the Czech Republic and Austria in 2009 and 2012. The results of the trials show that some varieties were inclined to lodging. On the other hand, they were resistant to common wheat diseases (mildew, brown rust). Hulls served as barriers and obstacles against the DON grain contamination. The yield rate was lower. The grains were characterized by a high proportion of protein in grain (up to 18.1 %). However, they may be difficult to use for common baking. Moreover, new food products demonstrating a different technological quality of the hulled wheat species have to be launched on the market. They will be suitable for regional marketing.

Keywords: organic farming, hulled wheat species, einkorn, emmer, spelt

Procedia PDF Downloads 514

Authors: Yousef Rostami Gharainy

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We look at the late financial exhibitions of China and India utilizing a simple growth accounting framework that creates assessments of the commitment of work, capital, training, and aggregate variable profitability for the three parts of agribusiness, industry, and administrations and in addition for the total economy. Our examination consolidates late information updates in both nations and incorporates broad examination of the basic information arrangement. The development records demonstrate a generally square with division in each nation between the commitments of capital gathering and TFP to development in yield every specialist over the period 1980-2007, and an increasing speed of development when the period is separated at 1993. Be that as it may, the size of yield development in China is generally twofold that of India at the total level, and additionally higher in each of the three segments in both sub-periods. In China the post-1993 increasing speed was amassed generally in industry, which contributed about 61 percent of China’s total efficiency development. Interestingly, 48 percent of the development in India in the second sub-period came in administrations. Reallocation of specialists from farming to industry and administrations has contributed 1.3 rate focuses to efficiency development in every nation.

Keywords: China, India, growth accounting framework, work, capital, training, aggregate variable profitability

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: Y. A. Shapovalov, F. M. Gumerov, M. K. Nauryzbaev, S. V. Mazanov, R. A. Usmanov, A. V. Klinov, L. K. Safiullina, S. A. Soshin

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A flow-through installation was created and manufactured for the transesterification of triglycerides of fatty acids and production of biodiesel fuel under supercritical fluid conditions. Transesterification of rapeseed oil with ethanol was carried out according to two parameters: temperature and the ratio of alcohol/oil mixture at the constant pressure of 19 MPa. The kinetics of the yield of fatty acids ethyl esters (FAEE) was determined in the temperature range of 320-380 °C at the alcohol/oil molar ratio of 6:1-20:1. The content of the formed FAEE was determined by the method of correlation of the resulting biodiesel fuel by its kinematic viscosity. The maximum FAEE yield (about 90%) was obtained within 30 min at the ethanol/oil molar ratio of 12:1 and a temperature of 380 °C. When studying of transesterification of triglycerides, a kinetic model of an isothermal flow reactor was used. The reaction order implemented in the flow reactor has been determined. The first order of the reaction was confirmed by data on the conversion of FAEE during the reaction at different temperatures and the molar ratios of the initial reagents (ethanol/oil). Using the Arrhenius equation, the values of the effective constants of the transesterification reaction rate were calculated at different reaction temperatures. In addition, based on the experimental data, the activation energy and the pre-exponential factor of the transesterification reaction were determined.

Keywords: biodiesel, fatty acid esters, supercritical fluid technology, transesterification

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Selim M. Khan

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Indoor air quality is strongly influenced by the presence of radioactive radon (222Rn) gas. Indeed, exposure to high 222Rn concentrations is unequivocally linked to DNA damage and lung cancer and is a worsening issue in North American and European built environments, having increased over time within newer housing stocks as a function of as yet unclear variables. Indoor air radon concentration can be influenced by a wide range of environmental, structural, and behavioral factors. As some of these factors are quantitative while others are qualitative, no single statistical model can determine indoor radon level precisely while simultaneously considering all these variables across a complex and highly diverse dataset. The ability of AI- machine (deep) learning to simultaneously analyze multiple quantitative and qualitative features makes it suitable to predict radon with a high degree of precision. Using Canadian and Swedish long-term indoor air radon exposure data, we are using artificial deep neural network models with random weights and polynomial statistical models in MATLAB to assess and predict radon health risk to human as a function of geospatial, human behavioral, and built environmental metrics. Our initial artificial neural network with random weights model run by sigmoid activation tested different combinations of variables and showed the highest prediction accuracy (>96%) within the reasonable iterations. Here, we present details of these emerging methods and discuss strengths and weaknesses compared to the traditional artificial neural network and statistical methods commonly used to predict indoor air quality in different countries. We propose an artificial deep neural network with random weights as a highly effective method for assessing and predicting indoor radon.

Keywords: radon, radiation protection, lung cancer, aI-machine deep learnng, risk assessment, risk prediction, Europe, North America

Procedia PDF Downloads 96

Authors: Adamu Usman, Grace Stanley Balami

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Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L. R. Br.) is a cereal cultivated in arid and semi-arid areas of the world. It supports more than 100 million people around the world. Parasitic weed (Striga hermonthica Del. Benth) is a major constraint to its production. Estimated yield losses are put at 10 - 95% depending on variety, ecology and cultural practices. Potentials in selection of traits in pearl millets for grain yield have been reported and it depends on genotypic variability and heritability among landraces. Variability and heritability among cultivars could offer opportunities for improvement. The study was conducted to determine the genetic variability among cultivars and estimate broad sense heritability among grain yield and related traits. F1 breeding populations were generated with 9 parental cultivars, viz; Ex-Gubio, Ex-Monguno, Ex-Baga as males and PEO 5984, Super-SOSAT, SOSAT-C88, Ex-Borno and LCIC9702 as females through Line × Tester mating during 2017 dry season at Lushi Irrigation Station, Bauchi Metropolitan in Bauchi State, Nigeria. The F1 population and the parents were evaluated during cropping season of 2018 at Bauchi and Maiduguri. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance. Results showed significant difference among cultivars and among traits indicating variability. Number of plants at emergence, days to 50% flowering, days to 100% flowering, plant height, panicle length, number of plants at harvest, Striga count at 90 days after sowing, panicle weight and grain yield were significantly different. Significant variability offer opportunity for improvement as superior individuals can be isolated. Genotypic variance estimates of traits were largely greater than environmental variances except in plant height and 1000 seed weight. Environmental variances were low and in some cases negligible. The phenotypic variances of all traits were higher than genotypic variances. Similarly phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) was higher than genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV). High heritability was found in days to 50% flowering (90.27%), Striga count at 90 days after sowing (90.07%), number of plants at harvest (87.97%), days to 100% flowering (83.89%), number of plants at emergence (82.19%) and plant height (73.18%). Greater heritability estimates could be due to presence of additive gene. The result revealed wider variability among genotypes and traits. Traits having high heritability could easily respond to selection. High value of GCV, PCV and heritability estimates indicate that selection for these traits are possible and could be effective.

Keywords: variability, heritability, phenotypic, genotypic, striga

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Tamrat Balcha Balla

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Background: Tablets are still the most preferred means of drug delivery. The search for new and improved direct compression tablet excipients is an area of research focus. Taro Boloso-I is a variety of Colocasia esculenta (L. Schott) yielding 67% more than the other varieties (Godare) in Ethiopia. This study aimed to enhance the flowability while keeping the compressibility and compactibility of the pregelatinized Taro Boloso-I starch. Methods: Central composite design was used for the optimization of two factors which were the temperature and duration of pregelatinization against 5 responses. The responses were angle of repose, Hausner ratio, Kawakita compressibility index, mean yield pressure and tablet breaking force. Results and Discussions: An increase in both temperature and time resulted in decrease in the angle of repose. The increase in temperature was shown to decrease the Hausner ratio and to decrease the Kawakita compressibility index. The mean yield pressure was observed to increase with increasing levels of both temperature and time. The pregelatinized (optimized) Taro Boloso-I starch could show desired flow property and compressibility. Conclusions: Pregelatinized Taro Boloso - I starch could be regarded as a potential direct compression excipient in terms of flowability, compressibility and compactibility.

Keywords: starch, compression, pregelatinization, Taro Boloso-I

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Min-Shiuan Liou, Yi Shan Yang, Yang-Zhan Huang, Chia-Wen Hsieh

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A high speed growing and butanol-tolerant Clostridium acetobutylicum HOL1 mutant was screened throughout continuous adaption culture with C. acetobutylicum ATCC 824. The HOL1 strain can grow well in 10 g/L butanol contained CGM medium and can produce about 12.8 g /L butanol during 24 hrs. The C. acetobutylicum HOL1 strain was able to produce 166 mM butanol with 21 mM acetone at pH 4.8, resulting in a butanol selectivity (a molar ratio of butanol to total solvents) of 0.79, which is much higher than that (0.6) of the wild-type strain C. acetobutylicum ATCC 824. The acetate and butyrate accumulation were not observed during fermentation of the HOL1 strain. A hyper-butanol producing C. acetobutylicum HOL1 (pBPHS-3), which was created to overexpress the Bacillus psychrosaccharolyticus originated specific heat-shock protein gene, hspX, from a clostridial phosphotransbutyrylase promoter, was studied for its potential to produce a high titer of butanol. Overexpression of hspX resulted in increased final butanol yield 47% and 30% higher than those of the the ATCC824 and the HOL1 strains, respectively. The remarkable high-speed growth and butanol tolerance of strain HOL1 (pBPHS-3) demonstrates that overexpression of heterogeneous stress protein-encoding gene, hspX, could help C. acetobutylicum to effectively produce a high concentration of butanol.

Keywords: Clostridium acetobutylicum, butanol, heat-shock protein, resistance

Procedia PDF Downloads 429

Authors: Esther Acha, Jose Cambra, De Chen

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Hydrogen is considered an important energy vector for the 21st century. Nowadays there are some difficulties for hydrogen economy implantation, and one of them is the high purity required for hydrogen. This energy vector is still being mainly produced from fuels, from wich hydrogen is produced as a component of a mixture containing other gases, such as CO, CO2 and H2O. A forthcoming sustainable pathway for hydrogen is steam-reforming of bio-oils derived from biomass, e.g. via fast pyrolysis. Bio-oils are a mixture of acids, alcohols, aldehydes, esters, ketones, sugars phenols, guaiacols, syringols, furans, multi-functional compounds and also up to a 30 wt% of water. The sorption enhanced steam reforming (SESR) process is attracting a great deal of attention due to the fact that it combines both hydrogen production and CO2 separation. In the SESR process, carbon dioxide is captured by an in situ sorbent, which shifts the reversible reforming and water gas shift reactions to the product side, beyond their conventional thermodynamic limits, giving rise to a higher hydrogen production and lower cost. The hydrogen containing mixture has been obtained from the SESR of bio-oil type compounds. Different types of catalysts have been tested. All of them contain Ni at around a 30 wt %. Two samples have been prepared with the wet impregnation technique over conventional (gamma alumina) and non-conventional (olivine) supports. And a third catalysts has been prepared over a hydrotalcite-like material (HT). The employed sorbent is a commercial dolomite. The activity tests were performed in a bench-scale plant (PID Eng&Tech), using a stainless steel fixed bed reactor. The catalysts were reduced in situ in the reactor, before the activity tests. The effluent stream was cooled down, thus condensed liquid was collected and weighed, and the gas phase was analysed online by a microGC. The hydrogen yield, and process behavior was analysed without the sorbent (the traditional SR where a second purification step will be needed but that operates in steady state) and the SESR (where the purification step could be avoided but that operates in batch state). The influence of the support type and preparation method will be observed in the produced hydrogen yield. Additionally, the stability of the catalysts is critical, due to the fact that in SESR process sorption-desorption steps are required. The produced hydrogen yield and hydrogen purity has to be high and also stable, even after several sorption-desorption cycles. The prepared catalysts were characterized employing different techniques to determine the physicochemical properties of the fresh-reduced and used (after the activity tests) materials. The characterization results, together with the activity results show the influence of the catalysts preparation method, calcination temperature, or can even explain the observed yield and conversion.

Keywords: CO2 sorbent, enhanced steam reforming, hydrogen

Procedia PDF Downloads 579

Authors: Bill Wason

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143 Crude Palm Oil Coop mills on Sumatra Island are participating in a program to transfer land from defaulted estates to small farmers while improving the sustainability of palm production to allow for biofuel & food production. GCarbon will be working with farmers to transfer technology, fertilizer, and trees to double the yield from the current baseline of 3.5 tons to at least 7 tons of oil per ha (25 tons of fruit bunches). This will be measured via evaluation of yield comparisons between participant and non-participant farms. We will also capture methane from Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME)throughbelt press filtering. Residues will be weighed and a formula used to estimate methane emission reductions based on methodologies developed by other researchers. GCarbon will also cover mill ponds with a non-permeable membrane and collect methane for energy or steam production. A system for accelerating methane production involving ozone and electro-flocculation will be tested to intensifymethane generation and reduce the time for wastewater treatment. A meta-analysis of research on sweet potatoes and sorghum as rotation crops will look at work in the Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil where5 ha. oftest plots of industrial sweet potato have achieved yields of 60 tons and 40 tons per ha. from 2 harvests in one year (100 MT/ha./year). Field trials will be duplicated in Bom Jesus Das Selvas, Maranhaothat will test varieties of sweet potatoes to measure yields and evaluate disease risks in a very different soil and climate of NE Brazil. Hog methane will also be captured. GCarbon Brazil, Coop Sisal, and an Australian research partner will plant several varieties of agave and use agronomic procedures to get yields of 880 MT per ha. over 5 years. They will also plant new varieties expected to get 3500 MT of biomass after 5 years (176-700 MT per ha. per year). The goal is to show that the agave can adapt to Brazil’s climate without disease problems. The study will include a field visit to growing sites in Australia where agave is being grown commercially for biofuels production. Researchers will measure the biomass per hectare at various stages in the growing cycle, sugar content at harvest, and other metrics to confirm the yield of sugar per ha. is up to 10 times greater than sugar cane. The study will look at sequestration rates from measuring soil carbon and root accumulation in various plots in Australia to confirm carbon sequestered from 5 years of production. The agave developer estimates that 60-80 MT of sequestration per ha. per year occurs from agave. The three study efforts in 3 different countries will define a feedstock pathway for jet fuel that involves very high yield crops that can produce 2 to 10 times more biomass than current assumptions. This cost-effective and less land intensive strategy will meet global jet fuel demand and produce huge quantities of food for net zero aviation and feeding 9-10 billion people by 2050

Keywords: zero emission SAF, methane capture, food-fuel integrated refining, new crops for SAF

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Brian H. Marsh

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Nitrogen fertility is an important component for optimum potato yield and quality. Best management practices are necessary in regards to N applications to achieve these goals without applying excess N with may contribute to ground water contamination. Eight potato fields in the Southern San Joaquin Valley were sampled for nitrogen inputs and uptake, tuber and vine dry matter and residual soil nitrate-N. The fields had substantial soil nitrate-N prior to the potato crop. Nitrogen fertilizer was applied prior to planting and in irrigation water as needed based on in-season petiole sampling in accordance with published recommendations. Average total nitrogen uptake was 237 kg ha^-1 on 63.5 Mg ha^-1 tuber yield and nitrogen use efficiency was very good at 81 percent. Sixty-nine percent of the plant nitrogen was removed in tubers. Soil nitrate-N increased 14 percent from pre-plant to post-harvest averaged across all fields and was generally situated in the upper soil profile. Irrigation timing and amount applied did not move water into the lower profile except for a single location where nitrate also moved into the lower soil profile. Pre-plant soil analysis is important information to be used. Rotation crops having deeper rooting growth would be able to utilize nitrogen that remained in the soil profile.

Keywords: potato, nitrogen fertilization, irrigation management, leaching potential

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: Mikhail O. Eremin

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Present work is devoted to experimental study and numerical modelling of failure of rocks typical for Kuzbass coal basin (Russia). The main goal was to define strength and deformation characteristics of rocks on the base of uniaxial compression and three-point bending loadings and then to build a mathematical model of failure process for both types of loading. Depending on particular physical-mechanical characteristics typical rocks of Kuzbass coal basin (sandstones, siltstones, mudstones, etc. of different series – Kolchuginsk, Tarbagansk, Balohonsk) manifest brittle and quasi-brittle character of failure. The strength characteristics for both tension and compression are found. Other characteristics are also found from the experiment or taken from literature reviews. On the base of obtained characteristics and structure (obtained from microscopy) the mathematical and structural models are built and numerical modelling of failure under different types of loading is carried out. Effective characteristics obtained from modelling and character of failure correspond to experiment and thus, the mathematical model was verified. An Instron 1185 machine was used to carry out the experiments. Mathematical model includes fundamental conservation laws of solid mechanics – mass, impulse, energy. Each rock has a sufficiently anisotropic structure, however, each crystallite might be considered as isotropic and then a whole rock model has a quasi-isotropic structure. This idea gives an opportunity to use the Hooke’s law inside of each crystallite and thus explicitly accounting for the anisotropy of rocks and the stress-strain state at loading. Inelastic behavior is described in frameworks of two different models: von Mises yield criterion and modified Drucker-Prager yield criterion. The damage accumulation theory is also implemented in order to describe a failure process. Obtained effective characteristics of rocks are used then for modelling of rock mass evolution when mining is carried out both by an open-pit or underground opening.

Keywords: damage accumulation, Drucker-Prager yield criterion, failure, mathematical modelling, three-point bending, uniaxial compression

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Christoph Ostermair

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We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Muhamad Syafiq Hakimi Kamaruddin, Norhidayah Suleiman

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Ginger extracts (Zingiber officinale Rosc.) have been attributed therapeutic properties primarily as antioxidant, anticancer, and anti-inflammatory properties. Conventional extractions including Soxhlet and maceration are commonly used to extract the bioactive compounds from plant material. Nevertheless, high energy consumption and being non-environmentally friendly are the predominant limitations of the conventional extractions method. Herein, green technology, namely supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) extraction, is used to study process variables' effects on extract yields. Herein, green technology, namely supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) extraction, is used to study process variables' effects on extract yields. A pressure (10-30 MPa), temperature (40-60 °C), and median particle size (300-600 µm) were conducted at a CO2 flow rate of 0.9 ± 0.2 g/min for 120 mins. The highest overall yield was 4.58% obtained by the scCO2 extraction conditions of 300 bar and 60 °C with 300µm of ginger powder for 120 mins. In comparison, the yield of the extract was increased considerably within a short extraction time. The results show that scCO2 has a remarkable ability over ginger extract and is a promising technology for extracting bioactive compounds from plant material.

Keywords: conventional, ginger, non-environmentally, supercritical carbon dioxide, technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Ahmed G. Mahgoub, Dahlia H. Hafez, Mostafa A. Abu Kiefa

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The Cone Penetration Test (CPT) is a common in-situ test which generally investigates a much greater volume of soil more quickly than possible from sampling and laboratory tests. Therefore, it has the potential to realize both cost savings and assessment of soil properties rapidly and continuously. The principle objective of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the soil angle of internal friction (Φ) and the soil modulus of elasticity (E) from CPT results considering the uncertainties and non-linearities of the soil. In addition, ANNs are used to study the influence of different parameters and recommend which parameters should be included as input parameters to improve the prediction. Neural networks discover relationships in the input data sets through the iterative presentation of the data and intrinsic mapping characteristics of neural topologies. General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) is one of the powerful neural network architectures which is utilized in this study. A large amount of field and experimental data including CPT results, plate load tests, direct shear box, grain size distribution and calculated data of overburden pressure was obtained from a large project in the United Arab Emirates. This data was used for the training and the validation of the neural network. A comparison was made between the obtained results from the ANN's approach, and some common traditional correlations that predict Φ and E from CPT results with respect to the actual results of the collected data. The results show that the ANN is a very powerful tool. Very good agreement was obtained between estimated results from ANN and actual measured results with comparison to other correlations available in the literature. The study recommends some easily available parameters that should be included in the estimation of the soil properties to improve the prediction models. It is shown that the use of friction ration in the estimation of Φ and the use of fines content in the estimation of E considerable improve the prediction models.

Keywords: angle of internal friction, cone penetrating test, general regression neural network, soil modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Nato Kutaladze, George Mikuchadze, Giorgi Sokhadze

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Precipitation forecasts are one of the most demanding applications in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Georgia, as the whole Caucasian region, is characterized by very complex topography. The country territory is prone to flash floods and mudflows, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) at any leading time are very important for Georgia. In this study, advanced research weather forecasting model’s skill in QPF is investigated over Georgia’s territory. We have analyzed several convection parameterization and microphysical scheme combinations for different rainy episodes and heavy rainy phenomena. We estimate errors and biases in accumulated 6 h precipitation using different spatial resolution during model performance verification for 12-hour and 24-hour lead time against corresponding rain gouge observations and satellite data. Various statistical parameters have been calculated for the 8-month comparison period, and some skills of model simulation have been evaluated. Our focus is on the formation and organization of convective precipitation systems in a low-mountain region. Several problems in connection with QPF have been identified for mountain regions, which include the overestimation and underestimation of precipitation on the windward and lee side of the mountains, respectively, and a phase error in the diurnal cycle of precipitation leading to the onset of convective precipitation in model forecasts several hours too early.

Keywords: extremal dependence index, false alarm, numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: T. M. Agbede, A. O. Adekiya

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An experiment was carried out for three consecutive years at Owo, southwest Nigeria. The objective of the investigation was to determine the effect of Cocoa Pod Ash (CPA) and Poultry Manure (PM) applied solely and their combined form, as sources of fertilizers on soil properties, leaf nutrient composition, growth and yield of cocoyam. Three soil amendments: CPA, PM (sole forms), CPA and PM (mixture), were applied at 7.5 t ha-1 with an inorganic fertilizer (NPK 15-15-15) at 400 kg ha-1 as a reference and a natural soil fertility, NSF (control), arranged in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Results showed that soil amendments significantly increased (p = 0.05) corm and cormel weights and growth of cocoyam, soil and leaf N, P, K, Ca and Mg, soil pH and organic carbon (OC) concentrations compared with the NSF (control). The mixture of CPA+PM treatment increased corm and cormel weights, plant height and leaf area of cocoyam by 40, 39, 42, and 48%, respectively, compared with inorganic fertilizer (NPK) and 13, 12, 15 and 7%, respectively, compared with PM alone. Sole or mixed forms of soil amendments showed remarkable improvement in soil physical properties compared with NPK and the NSF (control). The mixture of CPA+PM applied at 7.5 t ha-1 was the most effective treatment in improving cocoyam yield and growth parameters, soil and leaf nutrient composition.

Keywords: Cocoa pod ash, cocoyam, poultry manure, soil and leaf nutrient composition.

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Authors: Haneef Ur Rehman, Afsheen Aman, Abdul Hameed Baloch, Shah Ali Ul Qader

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Pectinase is a heterogeneous group of enzymes that catalyze the hydrolysis of pectin substances and widely has been used in food and textile industries. In current study, pectinase from B. licheniformis KIBGE-IB21 was immobilized within different polymers (calcium alginate beads, polyacrylamide gel and agar-agar matrix) to enhance its catalytic properties. Polyacrylamide gel was found to be most promising one and gave maximum (89%) immobilization yield. While less immobilization yield was observed in case of calcium alginate beads that only retained 46 % activity. The reaction time for maximum pectinolytic activity was increased from 5.0 to 10 minutes after immobilization. The temperature of pectinase for maximum enzyme activity was increased from 45 °C to 50 °C and 55 °C when it was immobilized within agar-agar and calcium alginate beads, respectively. The optimum pH of pectinase didn’t alter when it was immobilized within polyacrylamide gel and calcium alginate beads, but in case of agar-agar it was changed from pH 10 to pH 9.0. Thermal stability of pectinase was improved after immobilization and immobilized pectinase showed higher toleration against different temperatures as compared to free enzyme. It can be concluded that the entrapment is a simple, single step and promising procedure to immobilized pectinase within different synthetic and non-synthetic polymers and enhanced its catalytic properties.

Keywords: pectinase, characterization immobilization, polyacrylamide, agar-agar, calcium alginate beads

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Authors: Mu-Yen Chen, Min-Hsuan Fan, Chia-Chen Chen, Siang-Yu Jhong

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In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate, affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore, scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect, and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation. The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.

Keywords: artificial neural network, Taguchi method, real estate valuation model, investors

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Authors: Olusola Nafisat Omoniyi

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Aqueous extract of Duranta repens leaves was investigated for its allelopathic effect on Solanum lycopersicum Seedlings germinated and grown under salinity condition. The study was carried out using both laboratory petri dish and pot assays to simulate the plant’s natural environmental conditions. The experiment consisted of 5 groups (1-5), each containing 5 replicates (of 10 seeds). Group 1 was treated with distilled water; Group 2 was treated with 5 mM NaCl; Group 3 was treated with the Extract, Group 4 was treated with a mixture of 5 mM NaCl and the Extract (2:1 v/v), and Group 5 was treated with a mixture of 5 mM NaCl and the Extract (1:2 v/v). The results showed that treatment with NaCl caused significant reductions in germination, growth parameters (plumule and radicle lengths), and chlorophyll concentration of S. lycopersicum seedlings when compared to those treated with D. rupens aqueous leaf extract. Salinity also caused an increase in malondialdehyde and proline concentrations and lowered the activity of superoxide dismutase. However, in the presence of the extract, the adverse effects of the NaCl were attenuated, implying that the extract improved tolerance of S. lycopersicum seedlings. In conclusion, the findings of this study show that the extract is very important in the optimal growth of the plant in saline soil, which has become useful for the management of soil salinity problems.

Keywords: agriculture, allelopathic, salinity, soil, tomato, production, photosynthesis

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Authors: Javier E. García-Gallo, Nelson J. Fonseca-Ruiz, John F. Duitama-Munoz

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Sepsis is a syndrome that occurs with physiological and biochemical abnormalities induced by severe infection and carries a high mortality and morbidity, therefore the severity of its condition must be interpreted quickly. After patient admission in an intensive care unit (ICU), it is necessary to synthesize the large volume of information that is collected from patients in a value that represents the severity of their condition. Traditional severity of illness scores seeks to be applicable to all patient populations, and usually assess in-hospital mortality. However, the use of machine learning techniques and the data of a population that shares a common characteristic could lead to the development of customized mortality prediction scores with better performance. This study presents the development of a score for the one-year mortality prediction of the patients that are admitted to an ICU with a sepsis diagnosis. 5650 ICU admissions extracted from the MIMICIII database were evaluated, divided into two groups: 70% to develop the score and 30% to validate it. Comorbidities, demographics and clinical information of the first 24 hours after the ICU admission were used to develop a mortality prediction score. LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) and SGB (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) variable importance methodologies were used to select the set of variables that make up the developed score; each of this variables was dichotomized and a cut-off point that divides the population into two groups with different mean mortalities was found; if the patient is in the group that presents a higher mortality a one is assigned to the particular variable, otherwise a zero is assigned. These binary variables are used in a logistic regression (LR) model, and its coefficients were rounded to the nearest integer. The resulting integers are the point values that make up the score when multiplied with each binary variables and summed. The one-year mortality probability was estimated using the score as the only variable in a LR model. Predictive power of the score, was evaluated using the 1695 admissions of the validation subset obtaining an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.7528, which outperforms the results obtained with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII) scores on the same validation subset. Observed and predicted mortality rates within estimated probabilities deciles were compared graphically and found to be similar, indicating that the risk estimate obtained with the score is close to the observed mortality, it is also observed that the number of events (deaths) is indeed increasing as the outcome go from the decile with the lowest probabilities to the decile with the highest probabilities. Sepsis is a syndrome that carries a high mortality, 43.3% for the patients included in this study; therefore, tools that help clinicians to quickly and accurately predict a worse prognosis are needed. This work demonstrates the importance of customization of mortality prediction scores since the developed score provides better performance than traditional scoring systems.

Keywords: intensive care, logistic regression model, mortality prediction, sepsis, severity of illness, stochastic gradient boosting

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Authors: Reda Abdel-Aziz

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Agricultural activities in Egypt generate annually around 35 million tons of waste. Composting is one of the most promising technologies to turnover waste in a more economical way, for many centuries. Composting has been used as a mean of recycling organic matter back into the soil to improve soil structure and fertility. Field experiments were conducted in two governorates, Giza and Al-Monofia, to find out the effect of compost with different rates of chemical fertilizers on growth and yield of corn (Zea mays L.) during two constitutive seasons of 2012 and 2013. The experiment, laid out in a randomized complete block design (RCBD), was carried out on five farmers’ fields in each governorate. The treatments were: unfertilized control, full dose of NPK (120, 30, and 50 kg/acre, respectively), compost at rate of 20 ton/acre, compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 25% of chemical fertilizer, compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 50% of chemical fertilizer and compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 75% of chemical fertilizer. Results revealed a superiority of the treatment of compost at rate of 10 ton/acre + 50% of NPK that caused significant improvement in growth, yield and nutrient uptakes of corn in the two governorates during the two constitutive seasons. Results showed that agricultural waste could be composted into value added soil amendment to enhance efficiency of chemical fertilizer. Composting of agricultural waste could also reduce the chemical fertilizers potential hazard to the environment.

Keywords: agricultural waste, compost, chemical fertilizers, corn production, environment

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Authors: Joe Modise, Bamidel Joseph Okoli, Nas Molefe, Imelda Ledwaba

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The present study describes the chemical profile and antioxidant potential of the stem bark of Acacia decurrens. The methanol fraction of A. decurrens stem bark gave the highest yield (20 %), while the hexane fraction had the lowest yield (0.2 %). The GC-MS spectra of the hexane, chloroform and ethyl acetate fractions confirm the presence of fifty two major compounds and the ICP-OES analysis of the stem bark was found to contain Co(0.41), Zn(1.75), Mn(3.69), Ca(8.67), Ni(10.54), Mg(12.98), Cr(24.38), K(47.88), Fe(154.62) ppm; which is an indication of hyper-accumulation capacity. The UV-Visible spectra of showed four absorption maxima for hexane fraction at 665 (0.028), 410 (0.116), 335 (0.278) and 250 (0.007) nm, three for chloroform fraction at 665 (0.028), 335 (0.278) and 250 (0.007) nm , three for ethyl acetate fraction at 665 (0.070), 390 (0.648) and 345 (0.663) nm and three for methanol fraction at 385 (0.508), 310 (0.886) and 295 (0.899) nm respectively. Quantitative phytochemical screening indicated that the alkaloid (0.6-3.3) % and saponins (5.1-8.6) % contents of the various fractions were significantly lower than the tannin (30.9-55.8) mg TAE/g, steroid(13.92-41.2) %, phenol (40.6-65.5) mgGAE/g and flavonoids (210.2 -284.9) mg RUE/g contents. The antioxidant activity of the fractions was analysed by different methods and revealed good to moderate antioxidant potential with different IC50 values viz. (42.2-49.6) mg/mL for ABTS and (37.8-75.0) μg/ml for DPPH respectively, compared to standard antioxidants. Based on obtained results, the A.decurrens stem bark fractions can be a source of safe, sustainable natural antioxidant drug and can be exploited as a source of controlled green-heavy metal cleaner.

Keywords: Acacia decurrens, antioxidant, DPPH, ABTS, hyperaccumulation, Menstruum, ICP-OES, GC-MS, UV/visible

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Authors: Herviyanti, Gusnidar, M. Harianti

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The objective of this research were: a) using low-rank coal (subbituminous) as main humate material sources because this material will not be anthracite, and cannot using to be an energy sources b) to examine residual effects of humic matter from subbituminous which was combined with P fertilizers to adsorp Al and Fe metal, improving soil fertility, and increasing P fertilizing efficiency and Oxisol productivity. Therefore, optimalization crop productivity of upland rice can be achieved. The experiment was designed using a 3 x 4 factorial with 3 replications in randomly groups design. The 1st factor was 3 ways incubating humate material with P-fertilizer, which are: I1 = Incubation of humate material 1 week, then incubation P-fertilizers 1 week; I2 = Incubation of humate materials and P fertilizers directly into the soil for 2 weeks; and I3 = humate material and P fertilizer mixed for 1 week, then incubation to the soil for 1 week. The 2nd factor was residual effects of humate material and P-fertilizer combination which are 4 doses H1 = 400 ppm (0.8 Mg/ha) + 100% R; H2 = 400 ppm + 75% R; H3 = 800 ppm (1.6 Mg/ha) + 100% R,; and H4 = 800 ppm + 75% R. The 2nd year research results showed that the best treatment was founded residue effect of 800 ppm humate material and 100% R P-fertilizer doses in I3 way incubation that is equal to 6.19 t ha-1 upland rice yield. However, this result is almost the same as residual effects of 800 ppm humate material + 75% R P-fertilizer doses and upland rice yield the 1st year. It was concluded that addition of humate material can given the efficiency of P-fertilizer using up to 25% until the 2nd season planted.

Keywords: humate materials, P-fertilizer, subbituminous, upland rice

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Authors: C. Nathanailides, S. Anastasiou, P. Logothetis, G. Kanlis

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Production parameters of gilt head sea bream fish farm such as feeding regimes, mortalities, fish densities were used to calculate the economic efficiency of six different aquaculture sites from West Greece. Samples of farmed sea bream were collected and lipid content, microbial load and filleting yield of the samples were used as quality criteria. The results indicate that Lipid content, filleting yield and microbial load of fish originating from different fish farms varied significantly with improved quality exhibited in fish farms which exhibited improved Feed conversion rates and lower mortalities. Changes in feeding management practices such as feed quality and feeding regimes have a significant impact on the financial performance of sea bass farms. Fish farms which exhibited improved feeding conversion rates also exhibited increased profitability. Improvements in the FCR explained about 13.4 % of the difference in profitability of the different aquaculture sites. Lower mortality and higher growth rates were also exhibited by the fish farms which exhibited improved FCR. It is concluded that best feeding management practices resulted in improved product quality and profitability.

Keywords: aquaculture economics, gilt head sea, production fish, feeding management

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Authors: Sajjad Ur Rahman, Muhammad Tahir, Mukarram Bashir, Jawad, Aoun Muhammad, Muhammad Zohaib, Hannan Khan, Seemal Javaid, Mariam Azam

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The efficiency of natural metabolites obtained from partially fermented soya hulls and wheat bran using Saccharomyces cerevisiae (DL-22 S/N) ensures a potential impact on the total milk yield and quality of milk production. On attaining a moderate number of Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells around 1×10⁹ CFU/ml, the concentrate was further elevated under in-vivo conditions to study the quality of milk production in lactating buffalo. Ten lactating buffalos of the Nili Ravi breed having the same physical factors were given 12 gm of microbial metabolites daily, along with the palleted feed having 22 % proteins. Another group of 10 lactating animals with the same characteristics was maintained without metabolites. The body score, overall health, incidence of mastitis, milk fat, milk proteins, ash and solid not fat (SNF) were elevated on a weekly basis up to thirty days of trial. It was recorded that the average total increase in quality milk production was 0.9 liter/h/d, whereas SNF in the milk was enhanced to 0.71, and fats were decreased to 0.09 %. Moreover, during all periods of the trial, the overall non-specific immunity of buffalo was increased, as indicated by less than 0.2 % of mastitis incidence compared to 1.8% in the untreated buffalos.

Keywords: natural metabolites, quality milk, milk yield, microorganisms, fermentation, nonspecific immunity, better performing animals

Procedia PDF Downloads 90