Search results for: legal judgment prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4025

Search results for: legal judgment prediction

2705 Homosexuality and Culture: A Case Study Depicting the Struggles of a Married Lady

Authors: Athulya Jayakumar, M. Manjula

Abstract:

Though there has been a shift in the understanding of homosexuality from being a sin, crime or pathology in the medical and legal perspectives, the acceptance of homosexuality still remains very scanty in the Indian subcontinent. The present case study is a 24-year-old female who has completed a diploma in polytechnic engineering and residing in the state of Kerala. She initially presented with her husband with complaints of lack of sexual desire and non-cooperation from the index client. After an initial few sessions, the client revealed, in an individual session, about her homosexual orientation which was unknown to her family. She has had multiple short-term relations with females and never had any heterosexual orientation/interest. During her adolescence, she was wondering if she could change herself into a male. However, currently, she accepts her gender. She never wanted a heterosexual marriage; but, had to succumb to the pressure of mother, as a result of a series of unexpected incidents at home and had to agree for the marriage, also with a hope that she may change herself into a bi-sexual. The client was able to bond with the husband emotionally but the multiple attempts at sexual intercourse, at the insistence of the husband, had always been non-pleasurable and induced a sense of disgust. Currently, for several months, there has not been any sexual activity. Also, she actively avoids any chance to have a warm communication with him so that she can avoid chances of him approaching her in a sexual manner. The case study is an attempt to highlight the culture and the struggles of a homosexual individual who comes to therapy for wanting to be a ‘normal wife’ despite having knowledge of legal rights and scenario. There is a scarcity of Indian literature that has systematically investigated issues related to homosexuality. Data on prevalence, emotional problems faced and clinical services available are sparse though it is crucial for increasing understanding of sexual behaviour, orientation and difficulties faced in India.

Keywords: case study, culture, cognitive behavior therapy, female homosexuality

Procedia PDF Downloads 347
2704 A Low Order Thermal Envelope Model for Heat Transfer Characteristics of Low-Rise Residential Buildings

Authors: Nadish Anand, Richard D. Gould

Abstract:

A simplistic model is introduced for determining the thermal characteristics of a Low-rise Residential (LRR) building and then predicts the energy usage by its Heating Ventilation & Air Conditioning (HVAC) system according to changes in weather conditions which are reflected in the Ambient Temperature (Outside Air Temperature). The LRR buildings are treated as a simple lump for solving the heat transfer problem and the model is derived using the lumped capacitance model of transient conduction heat transfer from bodies. Since most contemporary HVAC systems have a thermostat control which will have an offset temperature and user defined set point temperatures which define when the HVAC system will switch on and off. The aim is to predict without any error the Body Temperature (i.e. the Inside Air Temperature) which will estimate the switching on and off of the HVAC system. To validate the mathematical model derived from lumped capacitance we have used EnergyPlus simulation engine, which simulates Buildings with considerable accuracy. We have predicted through the low order model the Inside Air Temperature of a single house kept in three different climate zones (Detroit, Raleigh & Austin) and different orientations for summer and winter seasons. The prediction error from the model for the same day as that of model parameter calculation has showed an error of < 10% in winter for almost all the orientations and climate zones. Whereas the prediction error is only <10% for all the orientations in the summer season for climate zone at higher latitudes (Raleigh & Detroit). Possible factors responsible for the large variations are also noted in the work, paving way for future research.

Keywords: building energy, energy consumption, energy+, HVAC, low order model, lumped capacitance

Procedia PDF Downloads 269
2703 Unlocking Green Hydrogen Potential: A Machine Learning-Based Assessment

Authors: Said Alshukri, Mazhar Hussain Malik

Abstract:

Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy sources. In the last few years, Oman aimed to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. Recently, the hydrogen economy has become a global trend, and many countries have started to investigate the feasibility of implementing this sector. Oman created an alliance to establish the policy and rules for this sector. With motivation coming from both global and local interest in green hydrogen, this paper investigates the potential of producing hydrogen from wind and solar energies in three different locations in Oman, namely Duqm, Salalah, and Sohar. By using machine learning-based software “WEKA” and local metrological data, the project was designed to figure out which location has the highest wind and solar energy potential. First, various supervised models were tested to obtain their prediction accuracy, and it was found that the Random Forest (RF) model has the best prediction performance. The RF model was applied to 2021 metrological data for each location, and the results indicated that Duqm has the highest wind and solar energy potential. The system of one wind turbine in Duqm can produce 8335 MWh/year, which could be utilized in the water electrolysis process to produce 88847 kg of hydrogen mass, while a solar system consisting of 2820 solar cells is estimated to produce 1666.223 MWh/ year which is capable of producing 177591 kg of hydrogen mass.

Keywords: green hydrogen, machine learning, wind and solar energies, WEKA, supervised models, random forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
2702 The Relation between Vitamin C and Oral Health

Authors: Mai Ashraf Talaat

Abstract:

Background: Vitamin C (ascorbic acid) is an essential nutrient for the development and repair of all body tissues. It can be obtained from a healthy diet or through supplementation. Due to its importance, vitamin C has become a mainstay in the treatment and prevention of many diseases and in maintaining immune, skin, bone and overall health. This review article aims to discuss the studies and case reports conducted to evaluate the effect of Vitamin C on oral health and the recent advances in oral medicine that involve the use of vitamin C. Data/Sources: The review was conducted for clinical studies, case reports and published literature in the English language that addresses this topic. An extensive search in the electronic databases of PubMed, PubMed Central, Web of Science, National Library of Medicine and ResearchGate was performed. Conclusion: Vitamin C is thought to treat periodontal diseases and gingival enlargement. It also affects biofilm formation and therefore, it helps in reducing caries incidence. Recently, vitamin C mesotherapy has been used to treat inflamed gingiva, bleeding gums and gingival hyperpigmentation. More research and randomized controlled trials are needed on this specific topic for more accurate judgment. Clinical significance: A minimally invasive approach - the usage of vitamin C in dental care could drastically reduce the need for surgical intervention.

Keywords: oral health, periodontology, vitamin C, Gingivitis

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
2701 Transformer Fault Diagnostic Predicting Model Using Support Vector Machine with Gradient Decent Optimization

Authors: R. O. Osaseri, A. R. Usiobaifo

Abstract:

The power transformer which is responsible for the voltage transformation is of great relevance in the power system and oil-immerse transformer is widely used all over the world. A prompt and proper maintenance of the transformer is of utmost importance. The dissolved gasses content in power transformer, oil is of enormous importance in detecting incipient fault of the transformer. There is a need for accurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil in order to facilitate the prompt maintenance and reducing the cost and error minimization. Study on fault prediction and diagnostic has been the center of many researchers and many previous works have been reported on the use of artificial intelligence to predict incipient failure of transformer faults. In this study machine learning technique was employed by using gradient decent algorithms and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in predicting incipient fault diagnosis of transformer. The method focuses on creating a system that improves its performance on previous result and historical data. The system design approach is basically in two phases; training and testing phase. The gradient decent algorithm is trained with a training dataset while the learned algorithm is applied to a set of new data. This two dataset is used to prove the accuracy of the proposed model. In this study a transformer fault diagnostic model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) and gradient decent algorithms has been presented with a satisfactory diagnostic capability with high percentage in predicting incipient failure of transformer faults than existing diagnostic methods.

Keywords: diagnostic model, gradient decent, machine learning, support vector machine (SVM), transformer fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 325
2700 An Analysis of the Affect of Climate Change on Humanitarian Law: The Way Forward

Authors: Anjali Kanagali, Astha Sinha

Abstract:

Climate change is the greatest threat being faced by mankind in the 21st century. It no longer is merely an environmental, scientific or economic issue but is a humanitarian issue as well. Paris Agreement put great pressure on the businesses to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the impact of climate change. However, the already increased climate variability and extreme weather are aggravating emergency humanitarian needs. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), if efficient policy changes are not made in time to combat the climate change issues, the situation will deteriorate with an estimated global temperature rise of 4 degrees. The existing international network of Humanitarian system is not adequately structured to handle the projected natural disasters and climate change crisis. The 2030 Agenda which embraces the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) discussed the relationship between the climate change and humanitarian assistance. The Humanitarian law aims to protect, amongst other things, ‘internally displaced persons’ which includes people displaced due to natural hazard related disasters engulfing the hazards of climate change. ‘Legal protection’ of displaced people to protect their rights is becoming a pressing need in such times. In this paper, attempts will be made to analyze the causes of the displacement, identify areas where the effect of the climate change is most likely to occur and to examine the character of forced displacement triggering population movement. We shall discuss the pressure on the Humanitarian system and assistance due to climate change issues and the need for vesting powers to the local communities or local government players to deal with the climate changes. We shall also discuss the possibility of setting up a new framework where non-state actors could be set up for climate change impact and its governance.

Keywords: humanitarian assistance to climate change, humanitarian crisis, internally displaced person, legal framework for climate migrants, non-state actors

Procedia PDF Downloads 322
2699 Land Suitability Prediction Modelling for Agricultural Crops Using Machine Learning Approach: A Case Study of Khuzestan Province, Iran

Authors: Saba Gachpaz, Hamid Reza Heidari

Abstract:

The sharp increase in population growth leads to more pressure on agricultural areas to satisfy the food supply. To achieve this, more resources should be consumed and, besides other environmental concerns, highlight sustainable agricultural development. Land-use management is a crucial factor in obtaining optimum productivity. Machine learning is a widely used technique in the agricultural sector, from yield prediction to customer behavior. This method focuses on learning and provides patterns and correlations from our data set. In this study, nine physical control factors, namely, soil classification, electrical conductivity, normalized difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, elevation, annual precipitation, pH of water, annual mean temperature, and slope in the alluvial plain in Khuzestan (an agricultural hotspot in Iran) are used to decide the best agricultural land use for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture for ten different crops. For this purpose, each variable was imported into Arc GIS, and a raster layer was obtained. In the next level, by using training samples, all layers were imported into the python environment. A random forest model was applied, and the weight of each variable was specified. In the final step, results were visualized using a digital elevation model, and the importance of all factors for each one of the crops was obtained. Our results show that despite 62% of the study area being allocated to agricultural purposes, only 42.9% of these areas can be defined as a suitable class for cultivation purposes.

Keywords: land suitability, machine learning, random forest, sustainable agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 86
2698 Numerical Erosion Investigation of Standalone Screen (Wire-Wrapped) Due to the Impact of Sand Particles Entrained in a Single-Phase Flow (Water Flow)

Authors: Ahmed Alghurabi, Mysara Mohyaldinn, Shiferaw Jufar, Obai Younis, Abdullah Abduljabbar

Abstract:

Erosion modeling equations were typically acquired from regulated experimental trials for solid particles entrained in single-phase or multi-phase flows. Evidently, those equations were later employed to predict the erosion damage caused by the continuous impacts of solid particles entrained in streamflow. It is also well-known that the particle impact angle and velocity do not change drastically in gas-sand flow erosion prediction; hence an accurate prediction of erosion can be projected. On the contrary, high-density fluid flows, such as water flow, through complex geometries, such as sand screens, greatly affect the sand particles’ trajectories/tracks and consequently impact the erosion rate predictions. Particle tracking models and erosion equations are frequently applied simultaneously as a method to improve erosion visualization and estimation. In the present work, computational fluid dynamic (CFD)-based erosion modeling was performed using a commercially available software; ANSYS Fluent. The continuous phase (water flow) behavior was simulated using the realizable K-epsilon model, and the secondary phase (solid particles), having a 5% flow concentration, was tracked with the help of the discrete phase model (DPM). To accomplish a successful erosion modeling, three erosion equations from the literature were utilized and introduced to the ANSYS Fluent software to predict the screen wire-slot velocity surge and estimate the maximum erosion rates on the screen surface. Results of turbulent kinetic energy, turbulence intensity, dissipation rate, the total pressure on the screen, screen wall shear stress, and flow velocity vectors were presented and discussed. Moreover, the particle tracks and path-lines were also demonstrated based on their residence time, velocity magnitude, and flow turbulence. On one hand, results from the utilized erosion equations have shown similarities in screen erosion patterns, locations, and DPM concentrations. On the other hand, the model equations estimated slightly different values of maximum erosion rates of the wire-wrapped screen. This is solely based on the fact that the utilized erosion equations were developed with some assumptions that are controlled by the experimental lab conditions.

Keywords: CFD simulation, erosion rate prediction, material loss due to erosion, water-sand flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
2697 Prediction of Damage to Cutting Tools in an Earth Pressure Balance Tunnel Boring Machine EPB TBM: A Case Study L3 Guadalajara Metro Line (Mexico)

Authors: Silvia Arrate, Waldo Salud, Eloy París

Abstract:

The wear of cutting tools is one of the most decisive elements when planning tunneling works, programming the maintenance stops and saving the optimum stock of spare parts during the evolution of the excavation. Being able to predict the behavior of cutting tools can give a very competitive advantage in terms of costs and excavation performance, optimized to the needs of the TBM itself. The incredible evolution of data science in recent years gives the option to implement it at the time of analyzing the key and most critical parameters related to machinery with the purpose of knowing how the cutting head is performing in front of the excavated ground. Taking this as a case study, Metro Line 3 of Guadalajara in Mexico will develop the feasibility of using Specific Energy versus data science applied over parameters of Torque, Penetration, and Contact Force, among others, to predict the behavior and status of cutting tools. The results obtained through both techniques are analyzed and verified in the function of the wear and the field situations observed in the excavation in order to determine its effectiveness regarding its predictive capacity. In conclusion, the possibilities and improvements offered by the application of digital tools and the programming of calculation algorithms for the analysis of wear of cutting head elements compared to purely empirical methods allow early detection of possible damage to cutting tools, which is reflected in optimization of excavation performance and a significant improvement in costs and deadlines.

Keywords: cutting tools, data science, prediction, TBM, wear

Procedia PDF Downloads 50
2696 Real Estate Trend Prediction with Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Authors: Sophia Liang Zhou

Abstract:

For investors, businesses, consumers, and governments, an accurate assessment of future housing prices is crucial to critical decisions in resource allocation, policy formation, and investment strategies. Previous studies are contradictory about macroeconomic determinants of housing price and largely focused on one or two areas using point prediction. This study aims to develop data-driven models to accurately predict future housing market trends in different markets. This work studied five different metropolitan areas representing different market trends and compared three-time lagging situations: no lag, 6-month lag, and 12-month lag. Linear regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network (ANN) were employed to model the real estate price using datasets with S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and 12 demographic and macroeconomic features, such as gross domestic product (GDP), resident population, personal income, etc. in five metropolitan areas: Boston, Dallas, New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. The data from March 2005 to December 2018 were collected from the Federal Reserve Bank, FBI, and Freddie Mac. In the original data, some factors are monthly, some quarterly, and some yearly. Thus, two methods to compensate missing values, backfill or interpolation, were compared. The models were evaluated by accuracy, mean absolute error, and root mean square error. The LR and ANN models outperformed the RF model due to RF’s inherent limitations. Both ANN and LR methods generated predictive models with high accuracy ( > 95%). It was found that personal income, GDP, population, and measures of debt consistently appeared as the most important factors. It also showed that technique to compensate missing values in the dataset and implementation of time lag can have a significant influence on the model performance and require further investigation. The best performing models varied for each area, but the backfilled 12-month lag LR models and the interpolated no lag ANN models showed the best stable performance overall, with accuracies > 95% for each city. This study reveals the influence of input variables in different markets. It also provides evidence to support future studies to identify the optimal time lag and data imputing methods for establishing accurate predictive models.

Keywords: linear regression, random forest, artificial neural network, real estate price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
2695 Commercial Law Between Custom and Islamic Law

Authors: Shimaa Abdel-Rahman Amin El-Badawy

Abstract:

Commercial law is the set of legal rules that apply to business and regulates the trade of trade. The meaning of this is that the commercial law regulates certain relations only that arises as a result of carrying out certain businesses. which are business, as it regulates the activity of a specific sect, the sect of merchants, and the commercial law as other branches of the law has characteristics that distinguish it from other laws and various, and various sources from which its basis is derived from It is the objective or material source. the historical source, the official source and the interpretative source, and we are limited to official sources and explanatory sources. so what do you see what these sources are, and what is their degree and strength in taking it in commercial disputes. The first topic / characteristics of commercial law. Commercial law has become necessary for the world of trade and economics, which cannot be dispensed with, given the reasons that have been set as legal rules for commercial field.In fact, it is sufficient to refer to the stability and stability of the environment, and in exchange for the movement and the speed in which the commercial environment is in addition to confidence and credit. the characteristic of speed and the characteristic of trust, and credit are the ones that justify the existence of commercial law.Business is fast, while civil business is slow, stable and stability. The person concludes civil transactions in his life only a little. And before doing any civil action. he must have a period of thinking and scrutiny, and the investigation is the person who wants the husband, he must have a period of thinking and scrutiny. as if the person who wants to acquire a house to live with with his family, he must search and investigate. Discuss the price before the conclusion of a purchase contract. In the commercial field, transactions take place very quickly because the time factor has an important role in concluding deals and achieving profits. This is because the merchant in contracting about a specific deal would cause a loss to the merchant due to the linkage of the commercial law with the fluctuations of the economy and the market. The merchant may also conclude more than one deal in one and short time. And that is due to the absence of commercial law from the formalities and procedures that hinder commercial transactions.

Keywords: law, commercial law, Islamic law, custom and Islamic law

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
2694 Estimation of Constant Coefficients of Bourgoyne and Young Drilling Rate Model for Drill Bit Wear Prediction

Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

Abstract:

In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

Procedia PDF Downloads 156
2693 Protection of the Rights of Outsourced Employees and the Effect on Job Performance in Nigerian Banking Sector

Authors: Abiodun O. Ibude

Abstract:

Several organizations have devised the strategy of engaging the services of staff not directly employed by them in their production and service delivery. Some organizations also engage on contracting another organization to carry out a part of service or production process on their behalf. Outsourcing is becoming an important alternative employment option for most organizations. This paper attempts an exposition on the rights of workers within the more specific context of outsourcing as a human resource management phenomenon. Outsourced employees and their rights are treated conceptually and analytically in a generic sense as a mere subset of the larger whole, that is, labor. Outsourced employees derive their rights, like all workers, from their job context as well as the legal environment (municipal and global) in which they operate. The dynamics of globalization and the implications of this development for labor practices receive considerable attention in this exposition. In this regard, a guarded proposition is made, to examine the practice and effect of engaging outsourcing as an economic decision designed primarily to cut down on operational costs rather than a Human Resources Management decision to improve worker welfare. The population of the study was selected from purposive and simple random sampling techniques. Data obtained were analyzed through a simple percentage, Pearson product-moment correlation, and cross-tabulation. From the research conducted, it was discovered that, although outsourcing possesses opportunities for organizations, there are drawbacks arising from its implementation of job securities. It was also discovered that some employees are being exploited through this strategy. This gives rise to lower motivation and thereby decline in performance. In conclusion, there is need for examination of Human Resource Managers’ strategies that can serve as management policy tools for the protection of the rights of outsourced employees.

Keywords: legal environment, operational cost, outsourcing, protection

Procedia PDF Downloads 129
2692 The Strategic Gas Aggregator: A Key Legal Intervention in an Evolving Nigerian Natural Gas Sector

Authors: Olanrewaju Aladeitan, Obiageli Phina Anaghara-Uzor

Abstract:

Despite the abundance of natural gas deposits in Nigeria and the immense potential, this presents both for the domestic and export oriented revenue, there exists an imbalance in the preference for export as against the development and optimal utilization of natural gas for the domestic industry. Considerable amounts of gas are still being wasted by flaring in the country to this day. Although the government has set in place initiatives to harness gas at the flare and thereby reduce volumes flared, the gas producers would rather direct the gas produced to the export market whereas gas apportioned to the domestic market is often marred by the low domestic gas price which is often discouraging to the gas producers. The exported fraction of gas production no doubt yields healthy revenues for the government and an encouraging return on investment for the gas producers and for this reason export sales remain enticing and preferable to the domestic sale of gas. This export pull impacts negatively if left unchecked, on the domestic market which is in no position to match the price at the international markets. The issue of gas price remains critical to the optimal development of the domestic gas industry, in that it comprises the basis for investment decisions of the producers on the allocation of their scarce resources and to what project to channel their output in order to maximize profit. In order then to rebalance the domestic industry and streamline the market for gas, the Gas Aggregation Company of Nigeria, also known as the Strategic Aggregator was proposed under the Nigerian Gas Master Plan of 2008 and then established pursuant to the National Gas Supply and Pricing Regulations of 2008 to implement the domestic gas supply obligation which focuses on ramping-up gas volumes for domestic utilization by mandatorily requiring each gas producer to dedicate a portion of its gas production for domestic utilization before having recourse to the export market. The 2008 Regulations further stipulate penalties in the event of non-compliance. This study, in the main, assesses the adequacy of the legal framework for the Nigerian Gas Industry, given that the operational laws are structured more for oil than its gas counterpart; examine the legal basis for the Strategic Aggregator in the light of the Domestic Gas Supply and Pricing Policy 2008 and the National Domestic Gas Supply and Pricing Regulations 2008 and makes a case for a review of the pivotal role of the Aggregator in the Nigerian Gas market. In undertaking this assessment, the doctrinal research methodology was adopted. Findings from research conducted reveal the reawakening of the Federal Government to the immense potential of its gas industry as a critical sector of its economy and the need for a sustainable domestic natural gas market. A case for the review of the ownership structure of the Aggregator to comprise a balanced mix of the Federal Government, gas producers and other key stakeholders in order to ensure the effective implementation of the domestic supply obligations becomes all the more imperative.

Keywords: domestic supply obligations, natural gas, Nigerian gas sector, strategic gas aggregator

Procedia PDF Downloads 231
2691 Human Factors Simulation Approach to Analyze Older Drivers’ Performance in Intersections Left-Turn Scenarios

Authors: Yassir AbdelRazig, Eren Ozguven, Ren Moses

Abstract:

While there exists a greater understanding of the differences between the driving behaviors of older and younger drivers, there is still a need to further understand how the two groups perform when attempting to perform complex intersection maneuvers. This paper looks to determine if, and to what extent, these differences exist when drivers encounter permissive left-hand turns, pedestrian traffic, two and four-lane intersections, heavy fog, and night conditions. The study will utilize a driving simulator to develop custom drivable scenarios containing one or more of the previously mentioned conditions. 32 younger and 32 older (+65 years) participants perform driving simulation scenarios and have their velocity, time to the nearest oncoming vehicle, accepted and rejected gaps, etc., recorded. The data collected from the simulator is analyzed via Raff’s method and logistic regression in order to determine and compare the critical gaps values of the two cohorts. Out of the parameters considered for this study, only the age of the driver, their experience (if they are a younger driver), the size of a gap, and the presence of pedestrians on the crosswalk proved significant. The results did not support the hypothesis that older drivers would be significantly more conservative in their critical gaps judgment and acceptance.

Keywords: older drivers, simulation, left-turn, human factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 249
2690 The Judiciary as Pacemaker? Considering the Role of Courts in an Expansion of Protection for War Refugees and People Fleeing Natural Disasters

Authors: Charlotte Lülf

Abstract:

Migration flows, resulting from war, climate change or economic crisis cannot be tackled by single states but need to be addressed as a transnational and international responsibility. The traditional architecture surrounding the work of the UNHCR and the 1951 Convention, however, is not equipped to deal with these challenges. Widely excluded from legal protection are people not individually persecuted for the statutory criteria, people that flee from the indiscriminate effects of an armed conflict as well as people fleeing natural disasters. With the lack of explicit legal protection and the political reluctance of nation states worldwide to extend their commitment in new asylum laws, the judiciary must be put in focus: it plays a unique role in interpreting and potentially expanding the application of existing regulations. This paper as part of an ongoing Ph.D. Project deals with the current and partly contradicting approaches to the protection of war- and climate refugees. Changing jurisprudential practice of national and regional courts will be assessed, as will be their dialogue to interpret the international obligations of human rights law, migration laws, and asylum laws in an interacting world. In recent judgments refoulment to an armed conflict as well as countries without adequate disaster relief or health care was argued as violating fundamental human and asylum law rights and therefore prohibited – even for applicants without refugee status: The first step towards access to subsidiary protection could herewith be established. Can one observe similar developments in other parts of the world? This paper will evaluate the role of the judiciary to define, redefine and potentially expand protection for people seeking refuge from armed conflicts and natural disasters.

Keywords: human rights law, asylum-seekers, displacement, migration

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
2689 Jurisdiction Conflicts in Contracts of International Maritime Transport: The Application of the Forum Selection Clause in Brazilian Courts

Authors: Renan Caseiro De Almeida, Mateus Mello Garrute

Abstract:

The world walks to be ever more globalised. This trend promotes an increase on the number of transnational commercial transactions. The main modal for carriage of goods is by sea, and many countries have their economies dependent on the maritime freightage – it could be because they exercise largely this activity or because they follow the tendency of using the maritime logistic widely. Among these ones, Brazil is included. This nation counts with sixteen ports with good capacities, which receive most of the international income by sea. It is estimated that 85 per cent of the total influx of goods in Brazil is by maritime modal, leaving mere 15 per cent for the other ones. This made it necessary to develop maritime law in international and national basis, to create a standard to be applied with the intention to harmonize the transnational carriage of goods by sea. Maritime contracts are very specific and have interesting peculiarities, but in their range, little research has been made on what causes the main divergences when it comes to international contracts: the jurisdiction conflict. Likewise any other international contract, it is common for the parties to set a forum selection clause to choose the forum which will be able to judge the litigations that could rise from a maritime transport contract and, consequently, also which law should be applied to the cases. However, the forum choice in Brazil has always been somewhat polemical – not only in the maritime law sphere - for sometimes national tribunals overlook the parties’ choice and call the competence for themselves. In this sense, it is interesting to mention that the Mexico Convention of 1994 about the law applicable to international contracts did not gain strength in Brazil, nor even reached the Congress to be considered for ratification. Furthermore, it is also noteworthy that Brazil has a new Civil Procedure Code, which was put into reinforcement in 2016 bringing new legal provisions specifically about the forum selection. This represented a mark in the national legal system in this matter. Therefore, this paper intends to give an insight through Brazilian jurisprudence, making an analysis of how this issue has been treated on litigations about maritime contracts in the national tribunals, as well as the solutions found by the Brazilian legal system for the jurisdiction conflicts in those cases. To achieve the expected results, the hypothetical-deductive method will be used in combination with researches on doctrine and legislations. Also, jurisprudential research and case law study will have a special role, since the main point of this paper is to verify and study the position of the courts in Brazil in a specific matter. As a country of civil law, the Brazilian judges and tribunals are very attached to the rules displayed on codes. However, the jurisprudential understanding has been changing during the years and with the advent of the new rules about the applicable law and forum selection clause, it is noticeable that new winds are being blown.

Keywords: applicable law, forum selection clause, international business, international maritime contracts, litigation in courts

Procedia PDF Downloads 275
2688 Utilizing Artificial Intelligence to Predict Post Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Transplant

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

Abstract:

Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 137
2687 Proactive Business Approaches in Human Rights: The Implications of Corporate Social Responsibility

Authors: Fatemeh Jalalvand

Abstract:

The critical human rights problems such as extreme poverty, hunger, inequalities and gender discrimination need to be addressed by powerful and influential actors in the world. In today’s globalization, corporations have become one of the potent agents in the society. They are capable of generating economic growth, reducing poverty, and increasing the well-being of individuals, thereby contributing to the betterment of a broad spectrum of human rights. However, the discussion on how business can contribute to human rights has primarily focused on not violating them (reactive approach) rather than improving the conditions and solving the problems of human rights (proactive approach). In particular, the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in bringing proactivity of business in human rights has gained less attention. This paper develops a conceptual framework to examine the role of different categories of CSR, including discretionary, ethical, legal, instrumental and political CSR in encouraging the proactive contribution of corporations to the betterment of human rights. The five propositions, related to the conceptual framework, outline the relationships between five categories of CSR and proactivity of corporations in human rights. The findings indicate that discretionary CSR with voluntary nature might not be able to motivate any contribution of business in human rights. Moreover, ethical CSR and legal CSR might lead to reactive strategies of business toward human rights. Meanwhile, the economic incentives behind the notion of instrumental CSR could result in partial proactive engagement of corporations in human rights. Finally, the internal motives as profit and power besides the external duties might lead to the highest level of proactivity of corporations in human rights under the context of political CSR. The model developed offers a map for business to adopt proactive human rights strategies more systematically maintaining key profit-drivers like power and profit. In sum, instrumental and political categories of CSR might lead corporations to improve the conditions of human rights proactively.

Keywords: CSR, human rights, proactive approach, reactive approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
2686 A Hybrid Expert System for Generating Stock Trading Signals

Authors: Hosein Hamisheh Bahar, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi, Akbar Esfahanipour

Abstract:

In this paper, a hybrid expert system is developed by using fuzzy genetic network programming with reinforcement learning (GNP-RL). In this system, the frame-based structure of the system uses the trading rules extracted by GNP. These rules are extracted by using technical indices of the stock prices in the training time period. For developing this system, we applied fuzzy node transition and decision making in both processing and judgment nodes of GNP-RL. Consequently, using these method not only did increase the accuracy of node transition and decision making in GNP's nodes, but also extended the GNP's binary signals to ternary trading signals. In the other words, in our proposed Fuzzy GNP-RL model, a No Trade signal is added to conventional Buy or Sell signals. Finally, the obtained rules are used in a frame-based system implemented in Kappa-PC software. This developed trading system has been used to generate trading signals for ten companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). The simulation results in the testing time period shows that the developed system has more favorable performance in comparison with the Buy and Hold strategy.

Keywords: fuzzy genetic network programming, hybrid expert system, technical trading signal, Tehran stock exchange

Procedia PDF Downloads 332
2685 Structural Inequality and Precarious Workforce: The Role of Labor Laws in Destabilizing the Labor Force in Iran

Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

Abstract:

Over the last three decades, the main demands of the Iranian workforce have been focused on three areas: "The right to a decent wage", "The right to organize" and "The right to job security". In order to investigate and analyze this situation, the present study focuses on the component of job security. The purpose of the study is to figure out what mechanisms in Iran's Labor Law have led to the destabilization and undermining of workers' job security. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws related to labor rights in Iran and, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. In the data analysis stage, the qualitative content analysis method was also used. The trend analysis of the statistics related to the labor force situation in Iran in the last three decades shows that the employment structure has been facing an increase in the active population, but in the last decade, a large part of this population has been mainly active in the service sector, and contract-free enterprises, so a smaller share of this employment has insurance coverage and a larger share has underemployment. In this regard, the results of this study show that four contexts have been proposed as the main legal and executive mechanisms of labor instability in Iran, which are: 1) temporaryization of the labor force by providing different interpretations of labor law, 2) adjustment labor in the public sector and the emergence of manpower contracting companies, 3) the cessation of labor law protection of workers in small workshops and 4) the existence of numerous restrictions on the effective organization of workers. The theoretical conclusion of this article is that the main root of the challenges of the labor society and the destabilized workforce in Iran is the existence of structural inequalities in the field of labor security, whose traces can be seen in the legal provisions and executive regulations of this field.

Keywords: inequality, precariat, temporaryization, labor force, labor law

Procedia PDF Downloads 63
2684 Constitutional Transition and Criminal Justice: Proposals for Reform of Kenya’s Youth Justice System Based on Restorative Justice Principles

Authors: M. Wangai

Abstract:

Following the promulgation of a new Constitution of Kenya in 2010, wide-ranging proposals for reform of the criminal justice system have been made. Proposed measures include a clear and separate system of dealing with juvenile offenders with a greater focus on rehabilitation and reintegration. As part of a broader constitutional transition, this article considers the contribution of restorative justice to reforming the youth justice system. The paper analyses Kenya’s juvenile justice legal framework measured against current international trends in youth justice. It identifies the first post-independence juvenile justice system as a remnant of the colonial period and notes that the post-2001 system is a marked improvement. More recent legal and institutional efforts to incorporate restorative justice are also examined. The paper advocates further development of the juvenile justice system by mainstreaming of restorative justice principles through national level legislative amendments. International and comparative perspectives are used to inform a diversion centered model of restorative justice. In addition, a case is made for the use of existing forms of alternative dispute resolution. Conscious of a tense political climate, the paper also proposes strategies to address challenges posed by a punitive penal environment, chiefly the linking of restorative justice to wider democratic goals and community spirit. The article concludes that restorative justice led juvenile justice reform will contribute to better treatment of young offenders under the criminal justice system and has the potential to set a new precedent for fair, sustainable and effective justice. Further, as part of far-reaching criminal justice reform, the proposed efforts may strengthen democratic progress in Kenya’s ensuing phase of political transition.

Keywords: constitutional transition, criminal justice, restorative justice, young offenders

Procedia PDF Downloads 150
2683 Developing E-Psychological Instrument for an Effective Flood Victims' Mental Health Management

Authors: A. Nazilah

Abstract:

Floods are classified among sudden onset phenomenon and the highest natural disasters happen in Malaysia. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Measuring the psychopathology symptoms among flood victims is an important step for intervention and treatment. However, there is a gap of a valid, reliable and an efficient instrument to measure flood victims' mental health, especially in Malaysia. This study aims to replicate the earlier studies of developing e-Psychological Instrument for Flood Victims (e-PIFV). The e-PIFV is a digital self-report inventory that has 84 items with 4 dimension scales namely stress, anxiety, depression, and trauma. Two replicated studies have been done to validate the instrument using expert judgment method. Results showed that content coefficient validity for each sub-scale of the instrument ranging from moderate to very strong validity. In study I, coefficient values of stress was 0.7, anxiety was 0.9, depression was 1.0, trauma was 0.6 and overall was 0.8. In study II, the coefficient values for two subscales and overall scale were increased. The coefficient value of stress was 0.8, anxiety was 0.9, depression was 1.0, trauma was 0.8 and overall was 0.9. This study supports the theoretical framework and provides practical implication in the field of clinical psychology and flood management.

Keywords: developing e-psychological instrument, content validity, instrument, mental health management, flood victims, psychopathology, validity

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
2682 Analysing the Renewable Energy Integration Paradigm in the Post-COVID-19 Era: An Examination of the Upcoming Energy Law of China

Authors: Lan Wu

Abstract:

The declared transformation towards a ‘new electricity system dominated by renewable energy’ by China requires a cleaner electricity consumption mix with high shares of renewable energy sourced-electricity (RES-E). Unfortunately, integration of RES-E into Chinese electricity markets remains a problem pending more robust legal support, evidenced by the curtailment of wind and solar power as a consequence of integration constraints. The upcoming energy law of the PRC (energy law) is expected to provide such long-awaiting support and coordinate the existing diverse sector-specific laws to deal with the weak implementation that dampening the delivery of their desired regulatory effects. However, in the shadow of the COVID-19 crisis, it remains uncertain how this new energy law brings synergies to RES-E integration, mindful of the significant impacts of the pandemic. Through the theoretical lens of the interplay between China’s electricity reform and legislative development, the present paper investigates whether there is a paradigm shift in energy law regarding renewable energy integration compared with the existing sector-specific energy laws. It examines the 2020 draft for comments on the energy law and analyses its relationship with sector-specific energy laws focusing on RES-E integration. The comparison is drawn upon five key aspects of the RES-E integration issue, including the status of renewables, marketisation, incentive schemes, consumption mechanisms, access to power grids, and dispatching. The analysis shows that it is reasonable to expect a more open and well-organized electricity market enabling absorption of high shares of RES-E. The present paper concludes that a period of prosperous development of RES-E in the post-COVID-19 era can be anticipated with the legal support by the upcoming energy law. It contributes to understanding the signals China is sending regarding the transition towards a cleaner energy future.

Keywords: energy law, energy transition, electricity market reform, renewable energy integration

Procedia PDF Downloads 196
2681 Literary Imagination and Leadership: Lessons From the Classroom

Authors: Naor Cohen

Abstract:

In recent years, business schools made teaching ethical leadership a higher priority. Greater attention to moral and ethical concepts and reasoning processes may prove beneficial to future business leaders. But with a shift in focus, there is a need for a shift in pedagogy. This paper explores an imaginative literature-based pedagogy in the teaching of ethical leadership. An imaginative literature-based pedagogy uses works of fiction to help students build moral analysis and moral judgment capabilities through a rigorous assessment of the moral soundness of actions, motivations, rationales, and consequences portrayed in works of fiction. Business students enrolled in 4 leadership senior-level courses were assigned the White Tiger: A Novel by Aravind Adiga as their main course reading. Students' engagement was measured as a three-factor construct exploring cognitive engagement, behavioural engagement and emotional engagement. In addition, students' final papers were analyzed using thematic content analysis. This paper will present the results of this analysis and argue that incorporating fiction into the leadership curriculum allows students to explore the dire consequences of avoiding countervailing interests, engaging in dishonesty and engaging in moral puffery-based leadership.

Keywords: ethical leadership, empathetic imagination, business education, pedagogy, fiction

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
2680 Hydrodynamics Study on Planing Hull with and without Step Using Numerical Solution

Authors: Koe Han Beng, Khoo Boo Cheong

Abstract:

The rising interest of stepped hull design has been led by the demand of more efficient high-speed boat. At the same time, the need of accurate prediction method for stepped planing hull is getting more important. By understanding the flow at high Froude number is the key in designing a practical step hull, the study surrounding stepped hull has been done mainly in the towing tank which is time-consuming and costly for initial design phase. Here the feasibility of predicting hydrodynamics of high-speed planing hull both with and without step using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with the volume of fluid (VOF) methodology is studied in this work. First the flow around the prismatic body is analyzed, the force generated and its center of pressure are compared with available experimental and empirical data from the literature. The wake behind the transom on the keel line as well as the quarter beam buttock line are then compared with the available data, this is important since the afterbody flow of stepped hull is subjected from the wake of the forebody. Finally the calm water performance prediction of a conventional planing hull and its stepped version is then analyzed. Overset mesh methodology is employed in solving the dynamic equilibrium of the hull. The resistance, trim, and heave are then compared with the experimental data. The resistance is found to be predicted well and the dynamic equilibrium solved by the numerical method is deemed to be acceptable. This means that computational fluid dynamics will be very useful in further study on the complex flow around stepped hull and its potential usage in the design phase.

Keywords: planing hulls, stepped hulls, wake shape, numerical simulation, hydrodynamics

Procedia PDF Downloads 283
2679 Criminal Laws Associated with Cyber-Medicine and Telemedicine in Current Law Systems in the World

Authors: Shahryar Eslamitabar

Abstract:

Currently, the internet plays an important role in the various scientific, commercial and service practices. Thanks to information and communication technology, the healthcare industry via the internet, generally known as cyber-medicine, can offer professional medical service in a wider geographical area. Having some appealing benefits such as convenience in offering healthcare services, improved accessibility to the services, enhanced information exchange, cost-effectiveness, time-saving, etc. Tele-health has increasingly developed innovative models of healthcare delivery. However, it presents many potential hazards to cyber-patients, inherent in the use of the system. First, there are legal issues associated with the communication and transfer of information on the internet. These include licensure, malpractice, liabilities and jurisdictions as well as privacy, confidentiality and security of personal data as the most important challenge brought about by this system. Additional items of concern are technological and ethical. Although, there are some rules to deal with pitfalls associated with cyber-medicine practices in the USA and some European countries, yet for all developments, it is being practiced in a legal vacuum in many countries. In addition to the domestic legislations to deal with potential problems arisen from the system, it is also imperative that some international or regional agreement should be developed to achieve the harmonization of laws among countries and states. This article discusses some implications posed by the practice of cyber-medicine in the healthcare system according to the experience of some developed countries using a comparative study of laws. It will also review the status of tele-health laws in Iran. Finally, it is intended to pave the way to outline a plan for countries like Iran, with newly-established judicial system for health laws, to develop appropriate regulations through providing some recommendations.

Keywords: tele-health, cyber-medicine, telemedicine, criminal laws, legislations, time-saving

Procedia PDF Downloads 665
2678 Meta-Analysis of Previously Unsolved Cases of Aviation Mishaps Employing Molecular Pathology

Authors: Michael Josef Schwerer

Abstract:

Background: Analyzing any aircraft accident is mandatory based on the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the respective country’s criminal prosecution authorities. Legal medicine investigations are unavoidable when fatalities involve the flight crew or when doubts arise concerning the pilot’s aeromedical health status before the event. As a result of frequently tremendous blunt and sharp force trauma along with the impact of the aircraft to the ground, consecutive blast or fire exposition of the occupants or putrefaction of the dead bodies in cases of delayed recovery, relevant findings can be masked or destroyed and therefor being inaccessible in standard pathology practice comprising just forensic autopsy and histopathology. Such cases are of considerable risk of remaining unsolved without legal consequences for those responsible. Further, no lessons can be drawn from these scenarios to improve flight safety and prevent future mishaps. Aims and Methods: To learn from previously unsolved aircraft accidents, re-evaluations of the investigation files and modern molecular pathology studies were performed. Genetic testing involved predominantly PCR-based analysis of gene regulation, studying DNA promotor methylations, RNA transcription and posttranscriptional regulation. In addition, the presence or absence of infective agents, particularly DNA- and RNA-viruses, was studied. Technical adjustments of molecular genetic procedures when working with archived sample material were necessary. Standards for the proper interpretation of the respective findings had to be settled. Results and Discussion: Additional molecular genetic testing significantly contributes to the quality of forensic pathology assessment in aviation mishaps. Previously undetected cardiotropic viruses potentially explain e.g., a pilot’s sudden incapacitation resulting from cardiac failure or myocardial arrhythmia. In contrast, negative results for infective agents participate in ruling out concerns about an accident pilot’s fitness to fly and the aeromedical examiner’s precedent decision to issue him or her an aeromedical certificate. Care must be taken in the interpretation of genetic testing for pre-existing diseases such as hypertrophic cardiomyopathy or ischemic heart disease. Molecular markers such as mRNAs or miRNAs, which can establish these diagnoses in clinical patients, might be misleading in-flight crew members because of adaptive changes in their tissues resulting from repeated mild hypoxia during flight, for instance. Military pilots especially demonstrate significant physiological adjustments to their somatic burdens in flight, such as cardiocirculatory stress and air combat maneuvers. Their non-pathogenic alterations in gene regulation and expression will likely be misinterpreted for genuine disease by inexperienced investigators. Conclusions: The growing influence of molecular pathology on legal medicine practice has found its way into aircraft accident investigation. As appropriate quality standards for laboratory work and data interpretation are provided, forensic genetic testing supports the medico-legal analysis of aviation mishaps and potentially reduces the number of unsolved events in the future.

Keywords: aviation medicine, aircraft accident investigation, forensic pathology, molecular pathology

Procedia PDF Downloads 48
2677 Application of Bayesian Model Averaging and Geostatistical Output Perturbation to Generate Calibrated Ensemble Weather Forecast

Authors: Muhammad Luthfi, Sutikno Sutikno, Purhadi Purhadi

Abstract:

Weather forecast has necessarily been improved to provide the communities an accurate and objective prediction as well. To overcome such issue, the numerical-based weather forecast was extensively developed to reduce the subjectivity of forecast. Yet the Numerical Weather Predictions (NWPs) outputs are unfortunately issued without taking dynamical weather behavior and local terrain features into account. Thus, NWPs outputs are not able to accurately forecast the weather quantities, particularly for medium and long range forecast. The aim of this research is to aid and extend the development of ensemble forecast for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia. Ensemble method is an approach combining various deterministic forecast to produce more reliable one. However, such forecast is biased and uncalibrated due to its underdispersive or overdispersive nature. As one of the parametric methods, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) generates the calibrated ensemble forecast and constructs predictive PDF for specified period. Such method is able to utilize ensemble of any size but does not take spatial correlation into account. Whereas space dependencies involve the site of interest and nearby site, influenced by dynamic weather behavior. Meanwhile, Geostatistical Output Perturbation (GOP) reckons the spatial correlation to generate future weather quantities, though merely built by a single deterministic forecast, and is able to generate an ensemble of any size as well. This research conducts both BMA and GOP to generate the calibrated ensemble forecast for the daily temperature at few meteorological sites nearby Indonesia international airport.

Keywords: Bayesian Model Averaging, ensemble forecast, geostatistical output perturbation, numerical weather prediction, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 283
2676 Legal Allocation of Risks: A Computational Analysis of Force Majeure Clauses

Authors: Farshad Ghodoosi

Abstract:

This article analyzes the effect of supervening events in contracts. Contracts serve an important function: allocation of risks. In spite of its importance, the case law and the doctrine are messy and inconsistent. This article provides a fresh look at excuse doctrines (i.e., force majeure, impracticability, impossibility, and frustration) with a focus on force majeure clauses. The article makes the following contributions: First, it furnishes a new conceptual and theoretical framework of excuse doctrines. By distilling the decisions, it shows that excuse doctrines rests on the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. Second, it analyzes force majeure clauses used by S&P 500 companies to understand the stickiness and similarity of such clauses and the events they cover. Third, using computational and statistical tools, it analyzes US cases since 1810 in order to assess the weight given to the triangle of control, foreseeability, and contract language. It shows that the control factor plays an important role in force majeure analysis, while the contractual interpretation is the least important factor. The Article concludes that it is the standard for control -whether the supervening event is beyond the control of the party- that determines the outcome of cases in the force majeure context and not necessarily the contractual language. This article has important implications on COVID-19-related contractual cases. Unlike the prevailing narrative that it is the language of the force majeure clause that’s determinative, this article shows that the primarily focus of the inquiry will be on whether the effects of COVID-19 have been beyond the control of the promisee. Normatively, the Article suggests that the trifactor of control, foreseeability, and contractual language are not effective for allocation of legal risks in times of crises. It puts forward a novel approach to force majeure clauses whereby that the courts should instead focus on the degree to which parties have relied on (expected) performance, in particular during the time of crisis.

Keywords: contractual risks, force majeure clauses, foreseeability, control, contractual language, computational analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 153