Search results for: return prediction

Authors: Hassan Gana Abdullahi, Michael A. Fullen, David Oloke

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Drought poses an enormous global threat to sustainable development and is expected to increase with global climate change. Drought and desertification are major problems in Yobe State (north-east Nigeria). This investigation aims to develop a workable framework and management tool for drought mitigation in Yobe State. Mixed methods were employed during the study and additional qualitative information was gathered through Focus Group Discussions (FGD). Data on socio-economic impacts of drought were thus collected via both questionnaire surveys and FGD. In all, 1,040 questionnaires were distributed to farmers in the State and 721 were completed, representing a return rate of 69.3%. Data analysis showed that 97.9% of respondents considered themselves to be drought victims, whilst 69.3% of the respondents were unemployed and had no other means of income, except through rain-fed farming. Developing a viable and holistic approach to drought mitigation is crucial, to arrest and hopefully reverse environment degradation. Analysed data will be used to develop an integrated framework for drought mitigation and management in Yobe State. This paper introduces the socio-economic and environmental effects of drought in Yobe State.

Keywords: drought, climate change, mitigation, management, Yobe State

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Authors: Alessio Mastrorillo, Giuseppe Silvi, Francesco Scagliola

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In this work, we introduce an Ambisonics decoder with an implementation of the C-format, also called Super Stereo. This format is an alternative to conventional stereo and binaural decoding. Unlike those, this format conveys audio information from the horizontal plane and works with stereo speakers and headphones. The two C-format channels can also return a reconstructed planar B-format. This work provides an open-source implementation for this format. We implement an all-pass filter for signal quadrature, as required by the decoding equations. This filter works with six Biquads in a cascade configuration, with values for control frequency and quality factor discovered experimentally. The phase response of the filter delivers a small error in the 20-14.000Hz range. The decoder has been tested with audio sources up to 192kHz sample rate, returning pristine sound quality and detailed stereo image. It has been included in the Envelop for Live suite and is available as an open-source repository. This decoder has applications in Virtual Reality and 360° audio productions, music composition, and online streaming.

Keywords: ambisonics, UHJ, quadrature filter, virtual reality, Gerzon, decoder, stereo, binaural, biquad

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Authors: R. Andreola, O. A. A. Santos, L. M. M. Jorge

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An industrial system for the production of white liquor of a paper industry, Klabin Paraná Papé is, formed by ten reactors was modeled, simulated, and analyzed. The developed model considered possible water losses by evaporation and reaction, in addition to variations in volumetric flow of lime mud across the reactors due to composition variations. The model predictions agreed well with the process measurements at the plant and the results showed that the slaking reaction is nearly complete at the third causticizing reactor, while causticizing ends by the seventh reactor. Water loss due to slaking reaction and evaporation occurs more pronouncedly in the slaking reaction than in the final causticizing reactors; nevertheless, the lime mud flow remains nearly constant across the reactors.

Keywords: causticizing, lime, prediction, process

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Authors: Joanna Grzybowska, Magdalena Igras, Mariusz Ziółko

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Association rule learning is an approach for discovering interesting relationships in large databases. The analysis of relations, invisible at first glance, is a source of new knowledge which can be subsequently used for prediction. We used this data mining technique (which is an automatic and objective method) to learn about interesting affects associations in a corpus of emergency phone calls. We also made an attempt to match revealed rules with their possible situational context. The corpus was collected and subjectively annotated by two researchers. Each of 3306 recordings contains information on emotion: (1) type (sadness, weariness, anxiety, surprise, stress, anger, frustration, calm, relief, compassion, contentment, amusement, joy) (2) valence (negative, neutral, or positive) (3) intensity (low, typical, alternating, high). Also, additional information, that is a clue to speaker’s emotional state, was annotated: speech rate (slow, normal, fast), characteristic vocabulary (filled pauses, repeated words) and conversation style (normal, chaotic). Exponentially many rules can be extracted from a set of items (an item is a previously annotated single information). To generate the rules in the form of an implication X → Y (where X and Y are frequent k-itemsets) the Apriori algorithm was used - it avoids performing needless computations. Then, two basic measures (Support and Confidence) and several additional symmetric and asymmetric objective measures (e.g. Laplace, Conviction, Interest Factor, Cosine, correlation coefficient) were calculated for each rule. Each applied interestingness measure revealed different rules - we selected some top rules for each measure. Owing to the specificity of the corpus (emergency situations), most of the strong rules contain only negative emotions. There are though strong rules including neutral or even positive emotions. Three examples of the strongest rules are: {sadness} → {anxiety}; {sadness, weariness, stress, frustration} → {anger}; {compassion} → {sadness}. Association rule learning revealed the strongest configurations of affects (as well as configurations of affects with affect-related information) in our emergency phone calls corpus. The acquired knowledge can be used for prediction to fulfill the emotional profile of a new caller. Furthermore, a rule-related possible context analysis may be a clue to the situation a caller is in.

Keywords: data mining, emergency phone calls, emotional profiles, rules

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Authors: Busra Mutlu Ipek, Merve Mutlu, Ahmet Mutlu

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Novel coronavirus COVID-19, which has recently influenced the world, poses a great threat to humanity. In order to overcome this challenging situation, scientists are working on developing effective vaccine against coronavirus. Many experts and researchers have also produced articles and done studies on this highly important subject. In this direction, this special topic was chosen for article to make a contribution to this area. The purpose of this article is to perform RNA sequence analysis of selected virus forms in the Coronaviridae family and predict/classify SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) from other selected complete genomes in coronaviridae family using proposed Artificial Neural Network(ANN) algorithm.

Keywords: Coronaviridae family, COVID-19, RNA sequencing, ANN, neural network

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Authors: Lívia B. Meirelles, Erika C. A. N. Chrisman, Flávia B. de Andrade, Lilian C. M. de Oliveira

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True Boiling Point distillation (TBP) is one of the most common experimental techniques for the determination of petroleum properties. This curve provides information about the performance of petroleum in terms of its cuts. The experiment is performed in a few days. Techniques are used to determine the properties faster with a software that calculates the distillation curve when a little information about crude oil is known. In order to evaluate the accuracy of distillation curve prediction, eight points of the TBP curve and specific gravity curve (348 K and 523 K) were inserted into the HYSYS Oil Manager, and the extended curve was evaluated up to 748 K. The methods were able to predict the curve with the accuracy of 0.6%-9.2% error (Software X ASTM), 0.2%-5.1% error (Software X Spaltrohr).

Keywords: distillation curve, petroleum distillation, simulation, true boiling point curve

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Authors: Parisa Javid

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In architecture, daylight contributes to humans' mental and physical well-being and reduces the consumption of fossil fuels. Accordingly, Iran's rich architecture has valuable achievements and experiences that should be recognized and introduced to the Iranian and international architecture communities. There are many ways to reduce energy consumption in buildings, but electricity accounts for a large part of that consumption. Lighting up spaces with natural light is a significant factor in reducing energy consumption and preventing electricity dissipation. Aside from being expensive, electric lighting systems cause excessive heat and physical injury (eyes). This study is based on library records and documents. Modern lighting systems are used to reduce energy consumption in the interior of a building to allow for optimal transmission of natural light. It discusses how to use natural light in architecture and the benefits of natural light in buildings. Solar energy can be used more efficiently, and electrical power can be saved in residential, administrative, commercial, and educational buildings by using new methods such as light tubes and mirror directors. Modern lighting systems, natural light, and reduced energy consumption are keywords for these systems, which quickly return their investment.

Keywords: modern lighting systems, natural light, reduced energy consumption

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Christel Elisabeth Bonin

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The score of the 2 ½ hour ‘magnum opus’ named ‘Epitaph’ was reconstructed 10 years after Charles Mingus’ death in 1979. Most of the movements were probably composed in the late 1950s. As the finale was missing, Gunther Schuller, the conductor of the world premiere in 1989, decided to improvise one with the orchestra, using Mingus as a guide. The aim of this paper is to analyze ‘Main Score Part I ‘ and ‘Main Score Part II’ and to look into the score of Mingus’ reconstructed compositions under particular observation of the new finale, ‘Main Score Reprise’. There, Mingus left instructions for a return to the opening section of ‘Epitaph’. By examining ‘Epitaph’ in the historical context of Jazz between 1955 to 1967 and the 1980s and comparing the finale of ‘Epitaph’, created - or better said: improvised - by the musicians of the 1989 world premiere with the opening section, at first it will be interesting to discover at which point Gunther Schuller followed Mingus creative process and brought it to life in 1989. Finally, it will be speculated if Charles Mingus composition still represents a foresight of Jazz nearly 30 years after its creation.

Keywords: epitaph, Charles Mingus, Gunter Schuller, jazz reception, bebop, hardbop, Duke Ellington, black, brown and beige, African-American music, free-jazz

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Authors: Erkan Talay, Mustafa Yigit Yagci

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For the systems like sliding door, designers should predict not only strength but also dynamic behavior of the system and this prediction usually becomes more critical if design has radical changes refer to previous designs. Also, sometimes physical tests could cost more than expected, especially for rail geometry changes, since this geometry affects design of the body. The aim of the study is to observe and understand the dynamics of the sliding door in virtual environment. For this, multibody dynamic model of the sliding door was built and then affects of various parameters like rail geometry, roller diameters, or center of mass detected. Also, a design of experiment study was performed to observe interactions of these parameters.

Keywords: design of experiment, minimum closing effort, multibody simulation, sliding door

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Authors: S. B. Kalaghatagi, A. K. Guggari, Pallavi S. Manikashetti

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A field experiment to study the effect of band application of organic manures on growth and yield of pigeon pea was conducted during 2016-17 at Kharif Seed Farm, College of Agriculture, Vijayapura. The experiment was carried out in randomized block design with thirteen treatments viz., T1 to T6 were band application of vermicompost at 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 t ha⁻¹, respectively. The treatments T7 to T12 include band application of sieved FYM at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 t ha⁻¹, respectively and were compared with already recommended practice of broadcasting of FYM at 6 t ha⁻¹ (T13); and recommended dose of fertilizer (25:50:0 NPK kg ha⁻¹) was applied commonly to all the treatments. The results revealed that band application of vermicompost (VC) at 3 t ha⁻¹ recorded significantly higher number of pods plant⁻¹ (116), grain weight plant⁻¹ (37.35 g), grain yield (1,647 kg ha⁻¹), stalk yield (2,920 kg ha⁻¹) and harvest index (0.36) and was on par with the band application of VC at 2.0 and 2.5 t ha⁻¹ and sieved FYM at 4.0 and 5.0 t ha⁻¹ as compared to broadcasting of FYM at 6 t ha-1 (99.33, 24.07 g, 1,061 kg ha⁻¹, 2,920 kg ha⁻¹ and 0.36, respectively). Significantly higher net return (Rupees 59,410 ha⁻¹) and benefit cost ratio of 2.92 recorded with band application of VC at 3 t ha⁻¹ over broadcasting of FYM at 6 tonnes per ha (Rupees 25,401 ha⁻¹ and 1.78, respectively). It indicates from the above results that, growing of pigeon pea with band application of VC at 2, 2.5 and 3 t ha⁻¹ and sieved FYM at 4 and 5 t ha⁻¹ leads to saving of 1 tonne of VC and 2 tonnes of FYM per ha.

Keywords: organic manures, rainfed pigeonpea, sieved FYM, vermicompost

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Authors: Himanshu Payal, Sachin Maheshwari, Pushpendra S. Bharti

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Electrical discharge machining (EDM), a non-conventional machining process, finds wide applications for shaping difficult-to-cut alloys. Process modeling of EDM is required to exploit the process to the fullest. Process modeling of EDM is a challenging task owing to involvement of so many electrical and non-electrical parameters. This work is an attempt to model the EDM process using artificial neural network (ANN). Experiments were carried out on die-sinking EDM taking Inconel 825 as work material. ANN modeling has been performed using experimental data. The prediction ability of trained network has been verified experimentally. Results indicate that ANN can predict the values of performance measures of EDM satisfactorily.

Keywords: artificial neural network, EDM, metal removal rate, modeling, surface roughness

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Authors: Vasilis C. Hristidis, Ricardo Caceda, Ji Soo Kim, Brian Bronson, Emily A. Hill

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Objective: Leave passes to provide authorized leave for hospitalized patients from a psychiatric inpatient unit. Though providing day passes was once a relatively common practice, there is relatively little data describing their safety and efficacy. Methods: This descriptive study examines the use of leave passes in an adult inpatient unit at a university hospital between 2017 and 2021, with attention to reasons for granting the day pass, duration, and outcome of the pass. Results: During the study period, ten patients with primary psychotic or mood disorders received 12 passes for either housing coordination, COVID-19 vaccination, or major family events. There were no fatalities or elopements. One patient experienced severe agitation and engaged in non-suicidal self-injurious behavior. A second patient showed mild, redirectable psychomotor agitation upon return to the unit. The remaining 10 passes were uneventful. Conclusions: Our findings support the view that patients with diverse diagnoses can safely be provided leave from an inpatient setting with adequate planning and support, yielding a low incidence of adverse events.

Keywords: passes, inpatient, psychiatry, inpatient leave, outcome

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Sittampalam Manoharan, Gary Chai, Sanaul Chowdhury, Andrew Golding

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The primary objective of this paper is to present a simplified approach to develop the structural deterioration model using traffic speed deflectometer data for flexible pavements. Maintaining assets to meet functional performance is not economical or sustainable in the long terms, and it would end up needing much more investments for road agencies and extra costs for road users. Performance models have to be included for structural and functional predicting capabilities, in order to assess the needs, and the time frame of those needs. As such structural modelling plays a vital role in the prediction of pavement performance. A structural condition is important for the prediction of remaining life and overall health of a road network and also major influence on the valuation of road pavement. Therefore, the structural deterioration model is a critical input into pavement management system for predicting pavement rehabilitation needs accurately. The Traffic Speed Deflectometer (TSD) is a vehicle-mounted Doppler laser system that is capable of continuously measuring the structural bearing capacity of a pavement whilst moving at traffic speeds. The device’s high accuracy, high speed, and continuous deflection profiles are useful for network-level applications such as predicting road rehabilitations needs and remaining structural service life. The methodology adopted in this model by utilizing time series TSD maximum deflection (D0) data in conjunction with rutting, rutting progression, pavement age, subgrade strength and equivalent standard axle (ESA) data. Then, regression analyses were undertaken to establish a correlation equation of structural deterioration as a function of rutting, pavement age, seal age and equivalent standard axle (ESA). This study developed a simple structural deterioration model which will enable to incorporate available TSD structural data in pavement management system for developing network-level pavement investment strategies. Therefore, the available funding can be used effectively to minimize the whole –of- life cost of the road asset and also improve pavement performance. This study will contribute to narrowing the knowledge gap in structural data usage in network level investment analysis and provide a simple methodology to use structural data effectively in investment decision-making process for road agencies to manage aging road assets.

Keywords: adjusted structural number (SNP), maximum deflection (D0), equant standard axle (ESA), traffic speed deflectometer (TSD)

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Authors: Mokrane Selma

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The shift towards decision making (DM) based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques will change the way in which consumer markets and our societies function. Through AI, predictive analytics is being used by businesses to identify these patterns and major trends with the objective to improve the DM and influence future business outcomes. This paper proposes an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to predict the success of telemarketing calls for selling bank long-term deposits. To validate the proposed model, we uses the bank marketing data of 41188 phone calls. The ANN attains 98.93% of accuracy which outperforms other conventional classifiers and confirms that it is credible and valuable approach for telemarketing campaign managers.

Keywords: bank telemarketing, prediction, decision making, artificial intelligence, artificial neural network

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Authors: Golnush Masghati-Amoli, Paul Chin

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Over the past recent years, with the rapid increases in data availability and computing power, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been called on in a range of different industries for their strong predictive capability. However, the use of Machine Learning in commercial banking has been limited due to a special challenge imposed by numerous regulations that require lenders to be able to explain their analytic models, not only to regulators but often to consumers. In other words, although Machine Leaning techniques enable better prediction with a higher level of accuracy, in comparison with other industries, they are adopted less frequently in commercial banking especially for scoring purposes. This is due to the fact that Machine Learning techniques are often considered as a black box and fail to provide information on why a certain risk score is given to a customer. In order to bridge this gap between the explain-ability and performance of Machine Learning techniques, a Hybrid Model is developed at Dun and Bradstreet that is focused on blending Machine Learning algorithms with traditional approaches such as scorecards. The Hybrid Model maximizes efficiency of traditional scorecards by merging its practical benefits, such as explain-ability and the ability to input domain knowledge, with the deep insights of Machine Learning techniques which can uncover patterns scorecard approaches cannot. First, through development of Machine Learning models, engineered features and latent variables and feature interactions that demonstrate high information value in the prediction of customer risk are identified. Then, these features are employed to introduce observed non-linear relationships between the explanatory and dependent variables into traditional scorecards. Moreover, instead of directly computing the Weight of Evidence (WoE) from good and bad data points, the Hybrid Model tries to match the score distribution generated by a Machine Learning algorithm, which ends up providing an estimate of the WoE for each bin. This capability helps to build powerful scorecards with sparse cases that cannot be achieved with traditional approaches. The proposed Hybrid Model is tested on different portfolios where a significant gap is observed between the performance of traditional scorecards and Machine Learning models. The result of analysis shows that Hybrid Model can improve the performance of traditional scorecards by introducing non-linear relationships between explanatory and target variables from Machine Learning models into traditional scorecards. Also, it is observed that in some scenarios the Hybrid Model can be almost as predictive as the Machine Learning techniques while being as transparent as traditional scorecards. Therefore, it is concluded that, with the use of Hybrid Model, Machine Learning algorithms can be used in the commercial banking industry without being concerned with difficulties in explaining the models for regulatory purposes.

Keywords: machine learning algorithms, scorecard, commercial banking, consumer risk, feature engineering

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Authors: Chang He, Hiroshi Tamura, Hiroshi Katsuchi, Jiaqi Wang

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In this study, the aim is to infer the slip limit (static friction limit) of contact interfaces in bolt friction joints by analyzing other bolt friction joints with the same contact surface but in a different shape. By using the Weibull distribution to deal with microelements on the contact surface statistically, the slip limit of a certain type of bolt joint was predicted from other types of bolt joint with the same contact surface. As a result, this research succeeded in predicting the slip limit of bolt joins with different numbers of contact surfaces and with different numbers of bolt rows.

Keywords: bolt joints, slip coefficient, finite element method, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Min Wei

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The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: F. Guspi, E. García

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This exploratory study gives an overview of the evolution of the main financial and performance indicators of the Academic Spin-Off’s and High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s in year 3 and year 6 after its creation in the region of Catalonia in Spain. The study compares and evaluates results of these different measures of performance and the degree of success of these companies for each University. We found that the average Catalonian Academic Spin-Off is small and have not achieved the sustainability stage at year 6. On the contrary, a small group of High Growth Academic Spin-Off’s exhibit robust performance with high profits in year 6. Our results support the need to increase selectivity and support for these companies especially near year 3, because are the ones that will bring wealth and employment. University role as an investor has rigid norms and habits that impede an efficient economic return from their ASO investment. Universities with high performance on sales and employment in year 3 not always could sustain this growth in year 6 because their ASO’s are not profitable. On the contrary, profitable ASO exhibit superior performance in all measurement indicators in year 6. We advocate the need of a balanced growth (with profits) as a way to obtain subsequent continuous growth.

Keywords: Academic Spin-Off (ASO), university entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial university, high growth, New Technology Based Companies (NTBC), University Spin-Off

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Authors: Karan Gupta

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The floods cause huge loos each year, and their impact gets manifold with the increase of total duration of flood as well as recession time. Moreover, floods have increased in recent years due to climate change in floodplains. In the context of global climate change, the agreement in Paris convention (2015) stated to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2°C and keep it at the limit of 1.5°C. Thus, this study investigates the impact of increasing temperature on the stage, discharge as well as total flood duration and recession time in the Meghna River basin in Bangladesh. This study considers the 100-year return period flood flows in the Meghna river under the specific warming levels (SWLs) of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 4°C. The results showed that the rate of increase of duration of flood is nearly 50% lesser at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C, whereas the rate of increase of duration of recession is 75% lower at ∆T = 1.5°C as compared to ∆T = 2°C. Understanding the change of total duration of flood as well as recession time of the flood gives a better insight to effectively plan for flood mitigation measures.

Keywords: flood, climate change, Paris convention, Bangladesh, inundation duration, recession duration

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Authors: Matthew Perkins-McVey

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The pharmacological arm of mental health treatment is in a state of crisis. The promises of the Prozac century have fallen short; the number of different therapeutically significant medications that successfully complete development shrinks with every passing year, and the demand for better treatments only grows. Answering these hardships is a renewed optimism concerning the efficacy of controlled psychedelic therapy, a renaissance that has seen the return of a familiar concept: intoxication as a model psychosis. First appearing in the mid-19th century and featuring in an array of 20th century efforts in psychedelic research, model psychosis has, once more, come to the foreground of psychedelic research. And yet, little has been made of where this peculiar, perhaps even intoxicatingly mad, the idea originates. This paper seeks to uncover the conceptual foundations underlying the early emergence of model psychosis. This narrative will explore the conceptual foundations behind their independent development of the concept of model psychosis, considering their similarities and differences. In the course of this examination, it becomes apparent that the definition of endogenous psychosis, which formed in the mid-19th century, is the direct product of emerging understandings of exogenous psychosis, or model psychosis. Ultimately, the goal is not merely to understand how and why model psychosis became thinkable but to examine how seemingly secondary concept changes can engender new ways of being a psychiatric subject.

Keywords: history of psychiatry, model psychosis, history of medicine, history of science

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Authors: Jing Nan

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The air breakdown voltage in compact circuit breakers is a critical factor in the design and reliability of electrical distribution systems. This voltage determines the threshold at which the air insulation between conductors will fail or 'break down,' leading to an arc. This phenomenon is highly sensitive to the conditions within the breaker, such as the temperature and the distance between electrodes. Typically, air breakdown voltage models have been reliable for predicting failure under standard operational temperatures. However, in conditions post-arcing, where temperatures can soar above 2000K, these models face challenges due to the complex physics of ionization and electron behaviour at such high-energy states. Building upon the foundational understanding that the breakdown mechanism is initiated by free electrons and propelled by electric fields, which lead to ionization and, potentially, to avalanche or streamer formation, we acknowledge the complexity introduced by high-temperature environments. Recognizing the limitations of existing experimental data, a notable research gap exists in the accurate prediction of breakdown voltage at elevated temperatures, typically observed post-arcing, where temperatures exceed 2000K.To bridge this knowledge gap, we present a method that integrates gap distance and high-temperature effects into air breakdown voltage assessment. The proposed model is grounded in the physics of ionization, accounting for the dynamic behaviour of free electrons which, under intense electric fields at elevated temperatures, lead to thermal ionization and potentially reach the threshold for streamer formation as Meek's criterion. Employing the Saha equation, our model calculates equilibrium electron densities, adapting to the atmospheric pressure and the hot temperature regions indicative of post-arc temperature conditions. Our model is rigorously validated against established experimental data, demonstrating substantial improvements in predicting air breakdown voltage in the high-temperature regime. This work significantly improves the predictive power for air breakdown voltage under conditions that closely mimic operational stressors in compact circuit breakers. Looking ahead, the proposed methods are poised for further exploration in alternative insulating media, like SF6, enhancing the model's utility for a broader range of insulation technologies and contributing to the future of high-temperature electrical insulation research.

Keywords: air breakdown voltage, high-temperature insulation, compact circuit breakers, electrical discharge, saha equation

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Authors: M. Lebrini, L. Salhi, C. Deyrat, C. Roos, O. Nait-Rabah

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The paper presents a large experimental study on the corrosion of zinc in tropical soil and in the ground water at the various depths. Through this study, the corrosion rate prediction was done on the basis of two methods the electrochemical method and the gravimetric. The electrochemical results showed that the corrosion rate is more important at the depth levels 0 m to 0.5 m and 0.5 m to 1 m and beyond these depth levels, the corrosion rate is less important. The electrochemical results indicated also that a passive layer is formed on the zinc surface. The found SEM and EDX micrographs displayed that the surface is extremely attacked and confirmed that a zinc oxide layer is present on the surface whose thickness and relief increase as the contact with soil increases.

Keywords: soil corrosion, galvanized steel, electrochemical technique, SEM and EDX

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Authors: Rusnardi Rahmat Putra, Junji Kiyono, Aiko Furukawa

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Several powerful earthquakes have struck Padang during recent years, one of the largest of which was an M 7.6 event that occurred on September 30, 2009 and caused more than 1000 casualties. Following the event, we conducted a 12-site microtremor array investigation to gain a representative determination of the soil condition of subsurface structures in Padang. From the dispersion curve of array observations, the central business district of Padang corresponds to relatively soft soil condition with Vs30 less than 400 m/s. because only one accelerometer existed, we simulated the 2009 Padang earthquake to obtain peak ground acceleration for all sites in Padang city. By considering the damage data of the 2009 Padang earthquake, we produced seismic risk vulnerability estimation of non-engineered houses for rock, medium and soft soil condition. We estimated the loss ratio based on the ground response, seismic hazard of Padang and the existing damaged to non-engineered structure houses due to Padang earthquake in 2009 data for several return periods of earthquake events.

Keywords: profile, Padang earthquake, microtremor array, seismic vulnerability

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Authors: Rashi Bhalla, Russel Pears, M. Asif Naeem

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In this 'Information Explosion Era' analyzing data 'a critical commodity' and mining knowledge from vertically distributed data stream incurs huge communication cost. However, an effort to decrease the communication in the distributed environment has an adverse influence on the classification accuracy; therefore, a research challenge lies in maintaining a balance between transmission cost and accuracy. This paper proposes a method based on Bayesian inference to reduce the communication volume in a heterogeneous distributed environment while retaining prediction accuracy. Our experimental evaluation reveals that a significant reduction in communication can be achieved across a diverse range of dataset types.

Keywords: big data, bayesian inference, distributed data stream mining, heterogeneous-distributed data

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Authors: Fahimeh Palizban, Farshad Noravesh, Amir Hossein Saeidian, Mahya Mehrmohamadi

Abstract:

In the recent decade, the emergence of liquid biopsy has significantly improved cancer monitoring and detection. Dying cells, including those originating from tumors, shed their DNA into the blood and contribute to a pool of circulating fragments called cell-free DNA. Accordingly, identifying the tissue origin of these DNA fragments from the plasma can result in more accurate and fast disease diagnosis and precise treatment protocols. Open chromatin regions are important epigenetic features of DNA that reflect cell types of origin. Profiling these features by DNase-seq, ATAC-seq, and histone ChIP-seq provides insights into tissue-specific and disease-specific regulatory mechanisms. There have been several studies in the area of cancer liquid biopsy that integrate distinct genomic and epigenomic features for early cancer detection along with tissue of origin detection. However, multimodal analysis requires several types of experiments to cover the genomic and epigenomic aspects of a single sample, which will lead to a huge amount of cost and time. To overcome these limitations, the idea of predicting OCRs from WGS is of particular importance. In this regard, we proposed a computational approach to target the prediction of open chromatin regions as an important epigenetic feature from cell-free DNA whole genome sequence data. To fulfill this objective, local sequencing depth will be fed to our proposed algorithm and the prediction of the most probable open chromatin regions from whole genome sequencing data can be carried out. Our method integrates the signal processing method with sequencing depth data and includes count normalization, Discrete Fourie Transform conversion, graph construction, graph cut optimization by linear programming, and clustering. To validate the proposed method, we compared the output of the clustering (open chromatin region+, open chromatin region-) with previously validated open chromatin regions related to human blood samples of the ATAC-DB database. The percentage of overlap between predicted open chromatin regions and the experimentally validated regions obtained by ATAC-seq in ATAC-DB is greater than 67%, which indicates meaningful prediction. As it is evident, OCRs are mostly located in the transcription start sites (TSS) of the genes. In this regard, we compared the concordance between the predicted OCRs and the human genes TSS regions obtained from refTSS and it showed proper accordance around 52.04% and ~78% with all and the housekeeping genes, respectively. Accurately detecting open chromatin regions from plasma cell-free DNA-seq data is a very challenging computational problem due to the existence of several confounding factors, such as technical and biological variations. Although this approach is in its infancy, there has already been an attempt to apply it, which leads to a tool named OCRDetector with some restrictions like the need for highly depth cfDNA WGS data, prior information about OCRs distribution, and considering multiple features. However, we implemented a graph signal clustering based on a single depth feature in an unsupervised learning manner that resulted in faster performance and decent accuracy. Overall, we tried to investigate the epigenomic pattern of a cell-free DNA sample from a new computational perspective that can be used along with other tools to investigate genetic and epigenetic aspects of a single whole genome sequencing data for efficient liquid biopsy-related analysis.

Keywords: open chromatin regions, cancer, cell-free DNA, epigenomics, graph signal processing, correlation clustering

Procedia PDF Downloads 145

Authors: Djehich Mohamed Yousri

Abstract:

In this research paper, the future of international relations is believed to have an important place on the theoretical and applied levels because policy makers in the world are in dire need of such analyzes that are useful in drawing up the foreign policies of their countries, and protecting their national security from potential future threats, and in this context, The topic raised a lot of scientific controversy and intellectual debate, especially in terms of the extent of the effectiveness, accuracy, and ability of foresight methods to identify potential futures, and this is what attributed the controversy to the scientific foundations for foreseeing international relations. An arena for intellectual discussion between different thinkers in international relations belonging to different theoretical schools, which confirms to us the conceptual and implied development of prediction in order to reach the scientific level.

Keywords: foresight, forecasting, international relations, international relations theory, concept of international relations

Procedia PDF Downloads 213

Authors: G. M. Dominguez Almaraz, J. A. Ruiz Vilchez, M. A. Sanchez Miranda

Abstract:

Ultrasonic fatigue tests have been carried out in the maraging 300 steel. Experimental results show that fatigue endurance under this modality of testing is closely related to the nature and geometrical properties of inclusions present in this alloy. A model was proposed to correlate the ultrasonic fatigue endurance with the nature and geometrical properties of the crack initiation inclusion. Scanning Electron Microscopy analyses were obtained on the fracture surfaces, in order to assess the crack initiation inclusion and to introduce these parameters in the proposed model, with good agreement for the fatigue life prediction.

Keywords: inclusions, ultrasonic fatigue, maraging 300 steel, crack initiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 210

Authors: H. Hammoudi, S. Bendenia, I. Batonneau-Gener, J. Comparot, K. Marouf-Khelifa, A. Khelifa

Abstract:

X zeolites were prepared by ion-exchange with Cu2+ and/or Zn2+ cations, at different concentrations of the exchange solution, and characterised by thermal analysis and nitrogen adsorption. The acidity of the samples was investigated by pyridine adsorption–desorption followed by in situ Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. Desorption was carried out at 150, 250 and 350 °C. The objective is to estimate the nature and concentration of acid sites. A comparison between the binary (Cu(x)X, Zn(x)X) and ternary (CuZn(x)X) exchanges was also established (x = level of exchange) through the Cu(43)X, Zn(48)X and CuZn(50)X samples. Lewis acidity decreases overall with desorption temperature and the level of exchange. As the latter increases, there is a conversion of some Lewis sites into those of Brønsted during thermal treatment. In return, the concentration of Brønsted sites increases with the degree of exchange. The Brønsted acidity of CuZn(50)X at 350 °C is more important than the sum of those of Cu(43)X and Zn(48)X. The found values were 73, 32 and 15 μmol g-1, respectively. Besides, the concentration of Brønsted sites for CuZn(50)X increases with desorption temperature. These features indicate the presence of a synergistic effect amplifying the strength of these sites when Cu2+ and Zn2+ cations compete for the occupancy of sites distributed inside zeolitic cavities.

Keywords: acidity, adsorption, pyridine, zeolites

Procedia PDF Downloads 220