Search results for: maternity care model

Authors: Semih Sözer

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One of the most common issues in economic systems is understanding characteristics of economic activities in cities and regions. Although there are critics to economic base models in conceptual and empirical aspects, these models are useful tools to examining the economic structure of a nation, regions or cities. This paper uses one of the methodologies of economic base models namely the location quotients model. Data for this model includes employment numbers of provinces and NUTS II regions in Turkey. Time series of data covers the years of 1990, 2000, 2003, and 2009. Aim of this study is finding which sectors are export-base and which sectors are import-base in provinces and regions. Model results show that big provinces or powerful regions (population, size etc.) mostly have basic sectors in their economic system. However, interesting facts came from different sectors in different provinces and regions in the model results.

Keywords: economic base, location quotients model, regional economics, regional development

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Authors: Md Iqbal Hossain, Tahmeed Ahmed, Kenneth H. Brown

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Objective: To assess the effect of community-based follow up, with or without food-supplementation and/or psychosocial stimulation, as an alternative to current hospital-based follow-up of children with moderate-acute-malnutrition (WHZ < -2 to -3) (MAM). Design/methods: The study was conducted at the ICDDR,B Dhaka Hospital and in four urban primary health care centers of Dhaka, Bangladesh during 2005-2007. The efficacy of five different randomly assigned interventions was compared with respect to the rate of completion of follow-up, growth and morbidity in 227 MAM children aged 6-24 months who were initially treated at ICDDR,B for diarrhea and/or other morbidities. The interventions were: 1) Fortnightly follow-up care (FFC) at the ICDDR,B’s outpatient-unit, including growth monitoring, health education, and micro-nutrient supplementation (H-C, n=49). 2) FFC at community follow-up unit (CNFU) [established in the existing urban primary health-care centers close to the residence of the child] but received the same regimen as H-C (C-C, n=53). 3) As per C-C plus cereal-based supplementary food (SF) (C-SF, n=49). The SF packets were distributed on recruitment and at every visit in CNFU [@1 packet/day for 6–11 and 2 packets/day for 12-24 month old children. Each packet contained 20g toasted rice-powder, 10g toasted lentil-powder, 5g molasses, and 3g soy bean oil, to provide a total of ~ 150kcal with 11% energy from protein]. 4) As per C-C plus psychosocial stimulation (PS) (C-PS, n=43). PS consisted of child-stimulation and parental-counseling conducted by trained health workers. 5) As per C-C plus both SF+PS (C-SF+PS, n=33). Results: A total of 227children (48.5% female), with a mean ± SD age of 12.6 ±3.8 months, and WHZ of - 2.53±0.28 enrolled. Baseline characteristics did not differ by treatment group. The rate of spontaneous attendance at scheduled follow-up visits gradually decreased in all groups. Follow-up attendance and gain in weight and length were greater in groups C-SF, C-SF+PS, and C-PS than C-C, and these indicators were observed least in H-C. Children in the H-C group more often suffered from diarrhea (25 % vs. 4-9%) and fever (28% vs. 8-11%) than other groups (p < 0.05). Children who attended at least five of the total six scheduled follow-up visits gained more in weight (median: 0.86 vs. 0.62 kg, p=0.002), length (median: 2.4 vs. 2.0 cm, p=0.009) than those who attended fewer. Conclusions: Community-based service delivery, especially including supplementary food with or without psychosocial stimulation, permits better rehabilitation of children with MAM compared to current hospital outpatients-based care. By scaling the community-based follow-up including food supplementation with or without psychosocial stimulation, it will be possible to rehabilitate a greater number of MAM children in a better way.

Keywords: community-based management, moderate acute malnutrition, psychosocial stimulation, supplementary food

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Authors: Sumitra Sharma, Christina Parker, Kathleen Finlayson, Clint Douglas, Niall Higgins

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Background: Telehealth services have potential to increase accessibility, utilization, and effectiveness of healthcare services. As the telehealth services are yet to integrate within regular hospital services in Nepal, the use of the telehealth services among adults with diabetes is scarce. Prior to implementation of telehealth services for adults with diabetes, it is necessary to examine influencing factors of telehealth services. Objective: This study aimed to investigate factors influencing telehealth services for diabetes care in Nepal. Methods: This study used a mixed-method study design which included a cross-sectional survey among adults with diabetes and semi-structured interviews among key healthcare professionals of Nepal. The study was conducted in a medical out-patient department of a tertiary hospital of Nepal. The survey adapted a previously validated questionnaire, while semi-structured questions for interviews were developed from literature review and experts consultation. All interviews were audio-recorded, and inductive content analysis was used to code transcripts and develop themes. For a survey, a descriptive analysis, chi-square test, and Mann Whitney U test were used to analyze the data. Results: One hundred adults with diabetes were participated in a survey, and seven healthcare professionals were recruited for interviews. In a survey, just over half of the participants (53%) were male, and others were female. Almost all participants (98%) owned a mobile phone, and 67% of them had a computer with internet access at home. Majority of participants had experience in using Facebook messenger (95%), followed by Viber (60%) and Zoom (26%). Almost all of the participants (96%) were willing to use telehealth services. There were significant associations between female sex and participants living 10 km away from the hospital with their willingness to use telehealth services. There was a significant association between participants' self-perception of good health status with their willingness to use video-conference calls and phone calls to use telehealth services. Seven themes were developed from interview data which are related to predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors influencing telehealth services for diabetes care in Nepal. Conclusion: In summary, several factors were found to influence the use of telehealth services for diabetes care in Nepal. For effective implementation of a sustainable telehealth services for adults with diabetes in Nepal, these factors need to be considered.

Keywords: contributing factors, diabetes mellitus, developing countries, telemedicine, telecare

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Authors: Bo Ram Choi, Ji Su Kim, Juyeon Cho, Hyukjin Lee

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Food contaminated by bacteria (E.coli), causes food poisoning, which occurs to many patients worldwide annually. We have introduced an application of rolling circle amplification (RCA) as a versatile biosensor and developed a diagnostic platform composed of capillary tube and microbeads for rapid and easy detection of Escherichia coli (E. coli). When specific mRNA of E.coli is extracted from cell lysis, rolling circle amplification (RCA) of DNA template can be achieved and can be visualized by beads aggregation in capillary tube. In contrast, if there is no bacterial pathogen in sample, no beads aggregation can be seen. This assay is possible to detect visually target gene without specific equipment. It is likely to the development of a genetic kit for point of care testing (POCT) that can detect target gene using microbeads.

Keywords: rolling circle amplification (RCA), Escherichia coli (E. coli), point of care testing (POCT), beads aggregation, capillary tube

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Authors: Albert Gyamfi

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Cocoa plays critical role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. Meanwhile, smallholder farmers most of whom are illiterate dominate the industry. According to the cocoa-based agricultural knowledge and information system (AKIS) model knowledge is created and transferred to the industry between three key actors: cocoa researchers, extension experts, and cocoa farmers. Dwelling on the SECI model, the media richness theory (MRT), and the AKIS model, a conceptual model of web 2.0-based AKIS model (AKIS 2.0) is developed and used to assess the possible effects of social media usage for knowledge creation in the Ghanaian cocoa industry. A mixed method approach with a survey questionnaire was employed, and a second-order multi-group structural equation model (SEM) was used to analyze the data. The study concludes that the use of web 2.0 applications for knowledge creation would lead to sustainable interactions among the key knowledge actors for effective knowledge creation in the cocoa industry in Ghana.

Keywords: agriculture, cocoa, knowledge, media, web 2.0

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Pampita Chakraborty, Sukumar Mukherjee

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The study was done to determine the microbiological profile and changing pattern of the pathogens causing UTI in the ICU patients. All the patients admitted to the ICU with urinary catheter insertion for more than 48hours were included in the study. Urine samples were collected in a sterile container with aseptic precaution using disposable syringe and was processed as per standards. Antimicrobial susceptibility test was done by Disc Diffusion method as per CLSI guidelines. A total of 100 urine samples were collected from ICU patients, out of which 30% showed significant bacterial growth and 7% showed growth of candida spp. Prevalence of UTI was more in female (73%) than male (27.%). Gram-negative bacilli 26(86.67%) were more common in our study followed by gram-positive cocci 4(13.33%). The most common uropathogens isolated were Escherichia coli 14 (46.67%), followed by Klebsiella spp 7(23.33%), Staphylococcus aureus 4(13.33%), Acinetobacter spp 3(10%), Enterococcus faecalis 1(3.33%) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa 1(3.33%). Most of the Gram-negative bacilli were sensitive to amikacin (80%) and nitrofurantoin (80%), where as all gram-positive organisms were sensitive to Vancomycin. A large number ESBL producers were also observed in this study. The study finding showed that E.coli is the predominant pathogen and has increasing resistance pattern to the commonly used antibiotics. The study proposes that the adherence to antibiotic policy is the key ingredients for successful outcome in ICU patients and also emphasizes that repeated evaluation of microbial characteristics and continuous surveillance of resistant bacteria is required for selection of appropriate antibiotic therapy.

Keywords: antimicrobial sensitivity, intensive care unit, nosocomial infection, urinary tract infection

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Authors: Pi-Chi Wu, Tsui-Ping Chu, Hsiu-Hung Wang

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Background: The ability to provide immediate medical service in outpatient departments is one of the keys to patient satisfaction. Objectives: This project used electronic equipment to integrate nursing care information to patient care at a blood pressure diagnostic counter. Through process reengineering, the average patient waiting time decreased from 35 minutes to 5 minutes, while service satisfaction increased from a score of 2.7 to 4.6. Methods: Data was collected from a local hospital in Southern Taiwan from a daily average of 2,200 patients in the outpatient department. Previous waiting times were affected by (1) space limitations, (2) the need to help guide patient mobility, (3) the need for nurses to appease irate patients and give instructions, (4), the need for patients to replace lost counter tickets, (5) the need to re-enter information, (6) the replacement of missing patient information. An ad hoc group was established to enhance patient satisfaction and shorten waiting times for patients to see a doctor. A four step strategy consisting of (1) counter relocation, (2) queue reorganization, (3) electronic information integration, (4) process reengineering was implemented. Results: Implementation of the developed strategy decreased patient waiting time from 35 minutes to an average of 5 minutes, and increased patient satisfaction scores from 2.7 to 6.4. Conclusion: Through the integration of information technology and process transformation, waiting times were drastically reduced, patient satisfaction increased, and nurses were allowed more time to engage in more cost-effective services. This strategy was simultaneously enacted in separate hospitals throughout Taiwan.

Keywords: process reengineering, electronic information integration, patient satisfaction, patient waiting time

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Ibrahim A. Aref, Tarek El-Mihoub, Khadiga Ben Musa

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This paper presents Carrier Sense Multiple Access (CSMA) communication model based on SoC design methodology. Such model can be used to support the modelling of the complex wireless communication systems, therefore use of such communication model is an important technique in the construction of high performance communication. SystemC has been chosen because it provides a homogeneous design flow for complex designs (i.e. SoC and IP based design). We use a swarm system to validate CSMA designed model and to show how advantages of incorporating communication early in the design process. The wireless communication created through the modeling of CSMA protocol that can be used to achieve communication between all the agents and to coordinate access to the shared medium (channel).

Keywords: systemC, modelling, simulation, CSMA

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Authors: Vinayaka Gude Divya Sampath

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The research introduces an integrated prediction model to assess the susceptibility of roads in a future flooding event. The model consists of deep learning algorithm for forecasting gauge height data and Flood Inundation Mapper (FIM) for spatial flooding. An optimal architecture for Long short-term memory network (LSTM) was identified for the gauge located on Tangipahoa River at Robert, LA. Dropout was applied to the model to evaluate the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The estimates are then used along with FIM to identify the spatial flooding. Further geoprocessing in ArcGIS provides the susceptibility values for different roads. The model was validated based on the devastating flood of August 2016. The paper discusses the challenges for generalization the methodology for other locations and also for various types of flooding. The developed model can be used by the transportation department and other emergency response organizations for effective disaster management.

Keywords: deep learning, disaster management, flood prediction, urban flooding

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera Ochoa, Ivan Dario Romero Fonseca

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This paper presents a design of a model for planning the distribution logistics operation. The significance of this work relies on the applicability of this fact to the analysis of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of dry freight in Bogotá. Two stages constitute this implementation: the first one is the place where optimal planning is achieved through a hybrid model developed with mixed integer programming, which considers the transhipment operation based on a combined load allocation model as a classic transshipment model; the second one is the specific routing of that operation through the heuristics of Clark and Wright. As a result, an integral model is obtained to carry out the step by step planning of the distribution of dry freight for SMEs in Bogotá. In this manner, optimum assignments are established by utilizing transshipment centers with that purpose of determining the specific routing based on the shortest distance traveled.

Keywords: transshipment model, mixed integer programming, saving algorithm, dry freight transportation

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Authors: Ma Lanting, S. Eguilior, A. Hurtado, Juan F. Llamas Borrajo

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Horizontal hydraulic fracturing is a technology to increase natural gas flow and improve productivity in the low permeability formation. During this drilling operation tons of flowback and produced water which contains many organic compounds return to the surface with a potential risk of influencing the surrounding environment and human health. A mathematical model is urgently needed to represent organic compounds in water transportation process behavior and the concentration change with time throughout the hydraulic fracturing operation life cycle. A comprehensive model combined Organic Matter Transport Dynamic Model with Two-Compartment First-order Model Constant (TFRC) Model has been established to quantify the organic compounds concentration. This algorithm model is composed of two transportation parts based on time factor. For the fast part, the curve fitting technique is applied using flowback water data from the Marcellus shale gas site fracturing and the coefficients of determination (R2) from all analyzed compounds demonstrate a high experimental feasibility of this numerical model. Furthermore, along a decade of drilling the concentration ratio curves have been estimated by the slow part of this model. The result shows that the larger value of Koc in chemicals, the later maximum concentration in water will reach, as well as all the maximum concentrations percentage would reach up to 90% of initial concentration from shale formation within a long sufficient period.

Keywords: model, shale gas, concentration, organic compounds

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Authors: F. Ruiz-Navarro, M. Matzner, G. Kobinia

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Background: Cerebral palsy (CP) encompasses the largest group of childhood movement disorders, the patterns and severity varies widely. Today, the management focuses only on a rehabilitation therapy that tries to secure the functions remained and prevents complications. However the treatments are not aimed to cure the disease. Stem cells (SCs) transplant via intrathecal is a new approach to the disease. Method: Our aim was to performed a pilot study under the condition of unproven treatment on clinical practice to assessed the safety and efficacy of Neuron Point-of-care Stem cell Therapy (N-POCST), an ambulatory procedure of autologous bone marrow derived SCs (BM-SCs) harvested from the posterior superior iliac crest undergo an on-site cell separation for intrathecal infusion via lumbar puncture. Results: 82 patients were treated in a period of 28 months, with a follow-up after 6 months. They had a mean age of 6,2 years old and male predominance (65,9%). Our preliminary results show that: A. No patient had any major side effects, B. Only 20% presented mild headache due to LP, C. 53% of the patients had an improvement in spasticity, D. 61% improved the coordination abilities, 23% improved the motor function, 15% improved the speech, 23% reduced the number of convulsive events with the same doses or less doses of anti-convulsive medication and 94% of the patients report a subjective general improvement. Conclusions: These results support previous worldwide publications that described the safety and effectiveness of autologous BM-SCs transplant for patients wit CP.

Keywords: autologous transplant, cerebral palsy, point of care, childhood movement disorders

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Authors: Supunmali Ahangama, Danny Chiang Choon Poo

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Health analytics (HA) is used in healthcare systems for effective decision-making, management, and planning of healthcare and related activities. However, user resistance, the unique position of medical data content, and structure (including heterogeneous and unstructured data) and impromptu HA projects have held up the progress in HA applications. Notably, the accuracy of outcomes depends on the skills and the domain knowledge of the data analyst working on the healthcare data. The success of HA depends on having a sound process model, effective project management and availability of supporting tools. Thus, to overcome these challenges through an effective process model, we propose an HA process model with features from the rational unified process (RUP) model and agile methodology.

Keywords: agile methodology, health analytics, unified process model, UML

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Authors: Akram Farhadi, Mahshid Froughan, Farahnaz Mohammadi, Maryam Rassouli, Maryam Noroozian, Leila Sadeghmoghaddam

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Background: The caregivers’ assessment of their own caregiving is considered the most important concept in exploring their experiences and has a major role in care outcomes. The rising number of people with dementia and their need for care makes family caregiving really important matter to consider and evaluate. Objectives: This study was conducted with the aim to naturalize and validate the Persian version of the Revised Caregiving Appraisal Scale (RCAS) in family caregivers of older adults with dementia. Patients and Method: In this cross-sectional methodological study, the Revised Caregiving Appraisal Scale (RCAS) was translated using International Quality of Life Assessment (IQOLA) protocol, and then a panel of experts examined its face and content validities. To ensure construct validity, the translated Revised Caregiving Appraisal Scale (RCAS) was completed by 236 family caregivers, and factor construct of the scale was assessed with 5 initial factors using confirmatory factor analysis. Internal consistency was found using Cronbach's alpha, and test-retest using intraclass correlation coefficient. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed in LISREL-8.8 software in Windows®. Results: Participating caregivers' mean age was 53.5±13.13 years. Content and face validities of the scale were confirmed according to the views expressed by family caregivers and panel of experts. The confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) results showed appropriate values for all fitness indices (RMSEA=0.046, df/X2=2.428, CFI=0.98, AGFI=0.84, GFI=0.9), and the 5-factor model was confirmed with 27 items. Overall Cronbach's alpha was reported 0.894, and test retest showed overall ICC=0.94. Conclusion: The Persian version of RCAS is a valid and reliable tool for family caregivers' assessment of their caregiving of older adults with dementia, and can be useful in assessing family caregiving interventions.

Keywords: psychometric, family caregivers, reliability and validity, elderly, dementia, self-appraisal

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Authors: O. A. Al-Mashaqbeh, A. M. Ghrair, D. Alsafadi, S. S. Dalahmeh, S. L. Bartelt-Hunt, D. D. Snow

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Grab samples were collected in the summer to characterize selected pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in the influent of two wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Jordan. Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC–MS/MS) was utilized to determine the concentrations of 18 compounds of PPCPs. Among all of the PPCPs analyzed, eight compounds were detected in the influent samples (1,7-dimethylxanthine, acetaminophen, caffeine, carbamazepine, cotinine, morphine, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim). However, five compounds (amphetamine, cimetidine, diphenhydramine, methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA) and sulfachloropyridazine) were not detected in collected samples (below the detection limits <0.005 µg/l). Moreover, the results indicated that the highest concentration levels detected in collected samples were caffeine, acetaminophen, 1,7-dimethylxanthine, cotinine and carbamazepine at concentration of 182.5 µg/L, 28.7 µg/l, 7.47 µg/l, 4.67 µg/l and 1.54 µg/L, respectively. In general, most of compounds concentrations measured in wastewater in Jordan are within the range for wastewater previously reported in India wastewater except caffeine.

Keywords: pharmaceuticals, personal care products, wastewater, Jordan

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Authors: Zena F. Mushtaq, Iqbal M. Abbas

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Background: Diabetes mellitus during pregnancy is one of the major medical and social problems with increasing prevalence in last decades and may lead to more vulnerable to dental problems and increased risk for periodontal diseases. Objectives: To assess oral hygiene behaviors among pregnant women with diabetes who attended primary health care centers and find out the relationship between oral hygiene behaviors and studied variables. Methodology: A cross sectional design was conducted from 7 July to 30 September 2014 on non probability (convenient sample) of 150 pregnant women with diabetes was selected from twelve Primary Health Care Centers at Baghdad city. Questionnaire format is tool for data collection which had designed and consisted of three main parts including: socio demographic, reproductive characteristics and items of oral hygiene behaviors among pregnant women with diabetes. Reliability of the questionnaire was determined through internal consistency of correlation coefficient (R= 0.940) and validity of content was determined through reviewing it by (12) experts in different specialties and was determined through pilot study. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze collected data. Result: Result of study revealed that (35.3%) of study sample was (35-39) years old with mean and SD is (X & SD = 33.57 ± 5.54) years, and (34.7%) of the study sample was graduated from primary school and less, half of the study sample was government employment and self employed, (42.7%) of the study sample had moderate socioeconomic status, the highest percentage (70.0%) of the study sample was nonsmokers, The result indicates that oral hygiene behaviors have moderate mean score in all items. There are no statistical significant association between oral hygiene domain and studied variables. Conclusions: All items related to health behavior concerning oral hygiene is in moderate mean of score, which may expose pregnant women with diabetes to high risk of periodontal diseases. Recommendations: Dental care provider should perform a dental examination at least every three months for each pregnant woman with diabetes, explanation of the effect of DM on periodontal health, oral hygiene instruction, oral prophylaxis, professional cleaning and treatment of periodontal diseases(scaling and root planing) when needed.

Keywords: diabetes, health behavior, pregnant women, oral hygiene

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Authors: Robert Setekera, Ramses van der Toorn

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We present an extensive analysis of the temperature dependence of the local avalanche model used in most of the modern compact models for bipolar transistors. This local avalanche model uses the Chynoweth's empirical law for ionization coefficient to define the generation of the avalanche current in terms of the local electric field. We carry out the model analysis using DC-measurements taken on both Si and advanced SiGe bipolar transistors. For the advanced industrial SiGe-HBTs, we consider both high-speed and high-power devices (both NPN and PNP transistors). The limitations of the local avalanche model in modeling the temperature dependence of the avalanche current mostly in the weak avalanche region are demonstrated. In addition, the model avalanche parameters are analyzed to see if they are in agreement with semiconductor device physics.

Keywords: avalanche multiplication, avalanche current, bipolar transistors, compact modeling, electric field, impact ionization, local avalanche

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Authors: Jiri Dufek

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The national model of the Czech Republic has been modified in a detailed way to get detailed travel demand in the municipality level (cities, villages over 300 inhabitants). As a technique for this detailed modelling, three-dimensional procedure for calibrating gravity models, was used. Besides of zone production and attraction, which is usual in gravity models, the next additional parameter for trip distribution was introduced. Usually it is called by “third dimension”. In the model, this parameter is a demand between regions. The distribution procedure involved calculation of appropriate skim matrices and its multiplication by three coefficients obtained by iterative balancing of production, attraction and third dimension. This type of trip distribution was processed in R-project and the results were used in the Czech Republic transport model, created in PTV Vision. This process generated more precise results in local level od the model (towns, villages)

Keywords: trip distribution, three dimension, transport model, municipalities

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Pawan S. Nagda, Purnank S. Bhatt, Mit K. Shah

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Earing defect in drawing process is highly undesirable not only because it adds on an additional trimming operation but also because the uneven material flow demands extra care. The objective of this work is to study the earing problem in the Deep Drawing of circular cup and to optimize the blank shape to reduce the earing. A finite element model is developed for 3-D numerical simulation of cup forming process in ABAQUS. Extra-deep-drawing (EDD) steel sheet has been used for simulation. Properties and tool design parameters were used as input for simulation. Earing was observed in the simulated cup and it was measured at various angles with respect to rolling direction. To reduce the earing defect initial blank shape was modified with the help of anisotropy coefficient. Modified blanks showed notable reduction in earing.

Keywords: anisotropy, deep drawing, earing, finite element simulation

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Authors: Mohsen Solimani Babarsad, Payam Taheri

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Numerical results of vertical slot fishways with and without cylinders study are presented. The simulated results and the measured data in the fishways are compared to validate the application of the model. This investigation is made using FLUENT V.6.3, a Computational Fluid Dynamics solver. Advantages of using these types of numerical tools are the possibility of avoiding the St.-Venant equations’ limitations, and turbulence can be modeled by means of different models such as the k-ε model. In general, the present study has demonstrated that the CFD model could be useful for analysis and design of vertical slot fishways with cylinders.

Keywords: slot Fish-way, CFD, k-ε model, St.-Venant equations’

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Authors: Arpita Mondal, Aurobinda Routray, Sreeraj Puravankara, Rajashree Biswas

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The most difficult part of designing a battery management system (BMS) is battery modeling. A good battery model can capture the dynamics which helps in energy management, by accurate model-based state estimation algorithms. So far the most suitable and fruitful model is the equivalent circuit model (ECM). However, in real-time applications, the model parameters are time-varying, changes with current, temperature, state of charge (SOC), and aging of the battery and this make a great impact on the performance of the model. Therefore, to increase the equivalent circuit model performance, the parameter estimation has been carried out in the frequency domain. The battery is a very complex system, which is associated with various chemical reactions and heat generation. Therefore, it’s very difficult to select the optimal model structure. As we know, if the model order is increased, the model accuracy will be improved automatically. However, the higher order model will face the tendency of over-parameterization and unfavorable prediction capability, while the model complexity will increase enormously. In the time domain, it becomes difficult to solve higher order differential equations as the model order increases. This problem can be resolved by frequency domain analysis, where the overall computational problems due to ill-conditioning reduce. In the frequency domain, several dominating frequencies can be found in the input as well as output data. The selective frequency domain estimation has been carried out, first by estimating the frequencies of the input and output by subspace decomposition, then by choosing the specific bands from the most dominating to the least, while carrying out the least-square, recursive least square and Kalman Filter based parameter estimation. In this paper, a second order battery model consisting of three resistors, two capacitors, and one SOC controlled voltage source has been chosen. For model identification and validation hybrid pulse power characterization (HPPC) tests have been carried out on a 2.6 Ah LiFePO₄ battery.

Keywords: equivalent circuit model, frequency estimation, parameter estimation, subspace decomposition

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Authors: Renjith George Pallivathukal, Preethy Mary Donald

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Asymptomatic oral lesions are often ignored by the patients and usually will be identified only in advanced stages. Early detection of precancerous lesions is important for better prognosis. It is also important for the oral health care person to be aware of the regional prevalence of oral lesions in order to provide early care for the same. We conducted a retrospective study to assess the prevalence of oral lesions based on the information available from patient records in a teaching dental school. Dental records of patients who attended the department of Oral medicine and diagnosis between September 2014 and September 2016 were retrieved and verified for oral lesions. Results: The ages of the patients ranged from 13 to 38 years with a mean age of 21.8 years. The lesions were classified as white (40.5%), red (23%), ulcerated (10.5%), pigmented (15.2%) and soft tissue enlargements (10.8%). 52% of the patients were unaware of the oral lesions before the dental visit. Overall, the prevalence of lesions in dental patients lower to national estimates, but the prevalence of some lesions showed variations.

Keywords: oral mucosal lesion, pre-cancer, prevalence, soft tissue lesion

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Authors: Birinderjit Singh Kalyan, Inderpreet Kaur, Balwinder Singh Sohi

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In this paper, an equivalent model for floating gate transistor has been proposed. Using the floating gate voltage value, capacitive coupling coefficients has been found at different bias conditions. The amount of charge present on the gate has been then calculated using the transient models of hot electron programming and Fowler-Nordheim Tunnelling. The proposed model can be extended to the transient conditions as well. The SPICE equivalent model is designed and current-voltage characteristics and Transfer characteristics are comparatively analysed. The dc current-voltage characteristics, as well as dc transfer characteristics, have been plotted for an FGMOS with W/L=0.25μm/0.375μm, the inter-poly capacitance of 0.8fF for both programmed and erased states. The Comparative analysis has been made between the present model and capacitive coefficient coupling methods which were already available.

Keywords: FGMOS, floating gate transistor, capacitive coupling coefficient, SPICE model

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Authors: Jason M. Hegenauer, Nicholas Fucci

Abstract:

In the late 1990s, a major deinstitutionalization movement of elderly patients took place, since which, the design of long-term care facilities has not been adequately analyzed in the United States. Over the course of the last 25 years, major innovations in construction methods, technology, and medicine have been developed, drastically changing the landscape of healthcare architecture. In light of recent events, and the expected increase in elderly populations with the aging of the baby-boomer generation, it is evident that reconsideration of these facilities is essential for the proper care of aging populations. The global response has been effective in stifling this pandemic; however, widespread disease still poses an imminent threat to the human race. Having witnessed the devastation Covid-19 has reaped throughout nursing homes and long-term care facilities, it is evident that the current strategies for protecting our most vulnerable populations are not enough. Light renovation of existing facilities and previously overlooked considerations for new construction projects can drastically lower the risk at nursing homes and long-term care facilities. A reconfigured entry sequence supplements several of the features which have been long-standing essentials of the design of these facilities. This research focuses on several aspects identified as needing improvement, including indoor environment quality, security measures incorporated into healthcare architecture and design, and architectural mitigation strategies for sick building syndrome. The results of this study have been compiled as 'best practices' for the design of future healthcare construction projects focused on the health, safety, and quality of life of the residents of these facilities. These design strategies, which can easily be implemented through renovation of existing facilities and new construction projects, minimize risk of infection and spread of disease while allowing routine functions to continue with minimal impact, should the need for future lockdowns arise. Through the current lockdown procedures, which were implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic, isolation of residents has caused great unrest and worry for family members and friends as they are cut off from their loved ones. At this time, data is still being reported, leaving infection and death rates inconclusive; however, recent projections in some states list long-term care facility deaths as high as 60% of all deaths in the state. The population of these facilities consists of residents who are elderly, immunocompromised, and have underlying chronic medical conditions. According to the Centers for Disease Control, these populations are particularly susceptible to infection and serious illness. The obligation to protect our most vulnerable population cannot be overlooked, and the harsh measures recently taken as a response to the Covid-19 pandemic prove that the design strategies currently utilized for doing so are inadequate.

Keywords: building security, healthcare architecture and design, indoor environment quality, new construction, sick building syndrome, renovation

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Authors: W. Mazari, K. Boucherit, Z. Boucherit-Otmani, M. N. Rahmoun, M. Benabdallah

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The hospital or any other establishment of care can be considered as an ecosystem where the patient comes into contact with a frightening microbial universe and a risk to contract infection that is referred to as nosocomial or health care-associated. In these last years, the incidence of these infections has risen sharply. Several microorganisms are the cause of these nosocomial infections and the emergence of resistance of the microbial strains against antibiotics creates a danger to public health. The search for new antimicrobial agents to overcome this problem has produced interesting compounds through chemical synthesis, which plays a very important role in the research and discovery of new drugs. It is in this framework that our study was conducted at our laboratory and it involves evaluating the antibacterial activity of thirteen 2-pyridone derivatives synthesized by two methods, the diffusion disc method and the dilution method against eight Gram negative bacterial strains. The results seem interesting especially for two products that have shown the best activities against Escherichia coli ATCC 25922 and Enterobacter cloacae ATCC 13047 with CMI of 512µg/ml.

Keywords: heterocyclic derivatives, chemical synthesis, antimicrobial activity, biotechnology

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Authors: Jirapan Khruesarn, Wimwipa Boonklin

Abstract:

Background: Currently, Thailand has an aging population. In 2017, the elderly population was over 11.14 million. There will be an increase in the number of elderly people, 8.39 million, some people grumble to themselves and have conflicts with their offspring or those close to them. It is a source of stress. Mental health promotion should be given to the elderly in order to cope with these changes. Due to the family characteristics of Thai society, these family members will act as caregivers for the elderly. Therefore, a group-counseling program based on Personnel-Centered Theory for Elderly Caregivers in Mental Health Promotion for Older People in Na Kaeo Municipality, Kau Ka District, Lampang Province, has been developed to compare the elderly care behavior before and after the participation. Methods: This research was study for 20 elderly' caregiver: Those aimed to compare the before and after use of group program for caregiver to promoting for the elderly by the following methods: Step 1 Establish a framework for evaluating elderly care behaviors and develop a group counseling program for promote mental health for elderly on: 1) Body 2) Willpower 3) Social and community management and 4) Organizing learning process. Step 2 Assessing an Elderly Care Behaviors by using "The behavior assessment on caring for the elderly" and assessing the mental health power level of the elderly and follow the counseling program 9 times and compare of the elderly care behaviors before and after joined a group program, and compare of mental health level of caregiver attends a group program. Results: This study is developing a group counseling program to promoting for the resilience quotient in elderly people that the results of the study could be summarized as follows: 1) Before the elderly's caregivers join a group counseling program: Mental health promotion behaviors of the elderly were at the high level of (3.32), and after: were at the high level of (3.44). 2) Before the elderly's caregiver attends a group counseling program: the mental health level of the elderly the mean score was (47.85 percent), and the standard deviation was (0.21 percent) and after. The elderly had a higher score of (51.45 percent) In summary, after the elderly caregivers joined the group, the elderly are higher in all aspects promote mental health for elderly and the statistically significance at the 0.05, It shows that programs are fit for personal and community condition in promoting the mental health of the elderly because this theory has the idea that: Humans have the ability to use their intelligence to solve problems or make decisions effectively, And member of group counseling program have ventured and express grievances that the counselor is a facilitator who focuses on personal development by building relationships among people. In other words, the factors contributing to higher levels of elderly care behaviors is group counseling, that isn't a hypothetical process but focus on building relationships that are based on mutual trust and Unconditional acceptance.

Keywords: group counseling base on person-centered theory, elderly person, resilience quotient: RQ, caregiver

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Authors: Yi-Hsiang Pan, Chen-Hui Huang, Wei-Ting Hsu

Abstract:

The purposes of the study were to understand these topics as follows: 1. To explore the effect of merging teaching personal and social responsibility (TPSR) with sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 2. To explore the effect of sports education model on students' game performance and responsibility. 3. To compare the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' game performance and responsibility. The participants include three high school physical education teachers and six physical education classes. Every teacher teaches an experimental group and a control group. The participants had 121 students, including 65 students in the experimental group and 56 students in the control group. The research methods had game performance assessment, questionnaire investigation, interview, focus group meeting. The research instruments include personal and social responsibility questionnaire and game performance assessment instrument. Paired t-test test and MANCOVA were used to test the difference between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" on students' learning performance. 1) "Merging TPSR with sports education model" showed significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with self-direction, helping others, cooperation. 2) "Sports education model" also had significant improvements in students' game performance, and responsibilities with effort, self-direction, helping others. 3.) There was no significant difference in game performance and responsibilities between "merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model". 4)."Merging TPSR with sports education model" significantly improve learning atmosphere and peer relationships, it may be developed in the physical education curriculum. The conclusions were as follows: Both "Merging TPSR with sports education model" and "sports education model" can help improve students' responsibility and game performance. However, "Merging TPSR with sports education model" can reduce the competitive atmosphere in highly intensive games between students. The curricular projects of hybrid TPSR-Sport Education model is a good approach for moral character education.

Keywords: curriculum and teaching model, sports self-efficacy, sport enthusiastic, character education

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