Search results for: least square estimates

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Marco Aniceto, Pedro N. Santos, José C. Freitas

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A methodology based on wavelets is proposed for the automatic location and delimitation of defects in limestone plates. Natural defects include dark colored spots, crystal zones trapped in the stone, areas of abnormal contrast colors, cracks or fracture lines, and fossil patterns. Although some of these may or may not be considered as defects according to the intended use of the plate, the goal is to pair each stone with a map of defects that can be overlaid on a computer display. These layers of defects constitute a database that will allow the preliminary selection of matching tiles of a particular variety, with specific dimensions, for a requirement of N square meters, to be done on a desktop computer rather than by a two-hour search in the storage park, with human operators manipulating stone plates as large as 3 m x 2 m, weighing about one ton. Accident risks and work times are reduced, with a consequent increase in productivity. The base for the algorithm is wavelet decomposition executed in two instances of the original image, to detect both hypotheses – dark and clear defects. The existence and/or size of these defects are the gauge to classify the quality grade of the stone products. The tuning of parameters that are possible in the framework of the wavelets corresponds to different levels of accuracy in the drawing of the contours and selection of the defects size, which allows for the use of the map of defects to cut a selected stone into tiles with minimum waste, according the dimension of defects allowed.

Keywords: automatic detection, defects, fracture lines, wavelets

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: N. Rassoul-ibrahim, E. Siahmed, L. Tadrist

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Water management plays a crucial role in the performance and durability of PEM fuel cells. Whereas the membrane must be hydrated enough, liquid droplets formed by water in excess can block the flow in the gas distribution channels and hinder the fuel cell performance. The main purpose of this work is to increase the understanding of liquid transport and mixing through mini- or micro-channels for various engineering or medical process applications including cool-ing of equipment according to the operations considered. For that purpose and as a first step, a technique was devel-oped to automatically detect and characterize two-phase flow patterns that may appear in such. The investigation, mainly experimental, was conducted on transparent channel with a 1mm x 1mm square cross section and a 0.3mm x 0.3 mm water injection normal to the gas channel. Three main flow patterns were identified liquid slug, bubble flow and annular flow. A flow map has been built accord-ing to the flow rate of both phases. As a sample the follow-ing figures show representative images of the flow struc-tures observed. An analysis and discussion of the flow pattern, in mini-channel, will be provided and compared to the case old micro-channel. . Keywords: Two phase flow, Clean Energy, Minichannels, Fuel Cells. Flow patterns, Maps.

Keywords: two phase flox, T-juncion, Micro and minichannels, clean energy, flow patterns, maps

Procedia PDF Downloads 58

Authors: Kopila Shrestha

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Adolescent sexual reproductive health is one of the most important issues in the world. Reproductive ability is taking place at an earlier age and adolescents are indulging in risk taking behaviors day by day. A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted in Kathmandu valley to assess the knowledge regarding sexual and reproductive health among adolescent. Total of 200 respondents were selected through non-probability convenient sampling technique. Self-administered written questionnaires using semi-structured questions were used. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics such as frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation and inferential statistics such as Chi-square test. The findings revealed that most of the respondents had adequate knowledge regarding transmission and protection of HIV/AIDs and STIs but still some respondents had a misconception regarding it. Few respondents had knowledge regarding legal age for marriage and the minimum age for first child bearing. The statistical analysis revealed that the total mean knowledge score with standard deviation was 45.02±8.674. Nearly half of the respondents (49.5%) had a moderate level of knowledge, followed by an inadequate level of knowledge 29.5% and adequate level of knowledge 21.0% regarding sexual and reproductive health. There was significant association of level of knowledge with area of residence (p-value .002) but no association with age (p-value .067), sex (p-value .999), religion (p-value .082) and ethnicity (p-value .114). Nearly half of the participants possess some knowledge about sexual and reproductive health but still effective educational intervention is required in higher secondary school to encourage more sensible and healthy behaviour.

Keywords: adolescents, higher secondary school, knowledge, sexual and reproductive health

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Authors: Jagul Huma Lashari, Arabella Bhutto

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Last few years have shown increased an interest of researchers in knowledge and technology transfer. However, facts show fewer types of knowledge transfer practices in the developing countries. This article focuses on assessment transfer channels of academic research produced by highly qualified academicians working in universities in Sindh offering degrees in field of an Environment in Sindh Pakistan. The academic field has been chosen because in field of the environment there is alarming need of research into practice for sustainable development. Using case study approach; in this research qualitative interviews have been conducted from PhD faculty members working in the universities offering degrees in field of environment. Obtained data is analyzed using descriptive statistics and chi-square test with the help of statistical packages for social sciences (SPSS). Research explored 31 channels of academic knowledge transfer from detailed review of literature and exploratory interviews with participants. Identified knowledge transfer channels have been grouped together in 6 groups of knowledge transfer channels; As knowledge transfer through publications, networking, mobility of researchers, joint research, intellectual property and co-operations. Results revealed that academic knowledge have been transferred through publications, networking, and co-operation. However, less number of academic knowledge has been transferred through groups of knowledge transfer channels such as Intellectual Property and joint research.

Keywords: environment, research knowledge, transfer channels, universities

Procedia PDF Downloads 316

Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Ihejirika Chinedu Emeka, Njoku John Didacus, Obenade Moses

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This study was aimed at determining the impact of meteorological events (seasonal variations) and sand excavation activities on turbidity and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) of Imo River, Southeastern Nigeria. In-situ measurements of the parameters were carried out at the peaks of two consecutive seasons–dry and rainy season at seven major points of sand excavation along the river, under standard analytical methods. There were significant variations in seasons (P<0.05) for turbidity and TSS at all locations. The average turbidity concentration of locations were 36.71 NTU, during the rainy season, and 17 NTU in a dry season, while the average TSS concentration were 27.14 mg/L, during the rainy season, and 8.86mg/L in a dry season. Turbidity correlated positively (strongly) with TSS (r=0.956) at R–Square=0.91. Turbidity and TSS values were higher during the rainy season than the dry season. Turbidity increased when Total Suspended Solids increased. Sand excavation increased turbidity and TSS values of Imo River. The river had moderate water quality during the rainy season and unimpaired water quality during a dry season. The river was not very clear in both seasons, but clearer in a dry season than in rainy season. The increase in turbidity and TSS can lead to the destruction of aquatic biodiversity and stagnation of ecosystem processes. Exposure of aquatic animals to the recorded turbidity level in a rainy season can lead to stress.

Keywords: biodiversity destruction, meteorological events, pollution, sand excavation

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Authors: Nur Mohammad Ali, Md. Shafiqul Alam, Jayanta Bhusan Deb, Nowrin Sharmin

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The past ten years have seen significant expansion in the aviation sector, which during the previous five years has steadily pushed emerging countries closer to economic independence. It is crucial to accurately forecast the potential demand for air travel to make long-term financial plans. To forecast market demand for low-cost passenger carriers, this study suggests working with low-cost airlines, airports, consultancies, and governmental institutions' strategic planning divisions. The study aims to develop an artificial intelligence-based methods, notably fuzzy inference systems (FIS), to determine the most accurate forecasting technique for domestic low-cost carrier demand in Bangladesh. To give end users real-world applications, the study includes nine variables, two sub-FIS, and one final Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System utilizing a graphical user interface (GUI) made with the app designer tool. The evaluation criteria used in this inquiry included mean square error (MSE), accuracy, precision, sensitivity, and specificity. The effectiveness of the developed air passenger demand prediction FIS is assessed using 240 data sets, and the accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and MSE values are 90.83%, 91.09%, 90.77%, and 2.09%, respectively.

Keywords: aviation industry, fuzzy inference system, membership function, graphical user interference

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Authors: Dwi Kartika Rukmi, Miftafu Darussalam

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Background: The disclosure of women’s HIV status toward their sexual partners is an important issue that should be regarded as one of the efforts to prevent and control the spread of HIV. Research on the disclosure of seropositive HIV status as well as women-related factors in Indonesia, especially Yogyakarta is only a few. Methods: This is a correlational descriptive research along with its cross-sectional approach on 329 women with HIV/AIDS at the Victory Plus NGO from June to July 2016. This research used a purposive sampling method and a questionnaire as the data collection technique. The bivariate analysis test was undertaken by using a chi-square and multivariate test along with a logistic regression. Result: The multivariate analysis and logistic regression show five independent variables related to the disclosure of seropositive HIV status of women with HIV/AIDS toward their sexual partners, namely ethnicity (aOR = 36,859; 95% CI; (6,544-207,616)) religion (aOR =0,255; 95%CI; (0,075-0,868)), discussion with partners prior to the HIV test (aOR =0,069; 95%CI; (0,065-0,438)) , types of sexual partners (aOR = 0.191; 95% CI; (0.082-0,445)) and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status (aOR = 0.036; 95% CI; (0.008-0.160)). The highest level of reason for seropositive HIV women not to be open about their partners’ status is the fear of being rejected by their partners and the environmental stigma of HIV AIDS disease. Conclusion: The disclosure of seropositive HIV status in women with HIV/AIDS in the Victory Plus NGO of Yogyakarta was 79.4% or classified as a high category with some related factors such as ethnicity, religion, discussion with partners prior to the HIV test, types of partners and knowledge on the partners’ HIV status.

Keywords: women, HIV, disclosure, sexual partner

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Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Kovačević, Lidija Jevrić, Evgenija Djurendić, Jovana Ajduković

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There are several methods for determination of the lipophilicity of biologically active compounds, however chromatography has been shown as a very suitable method for this purpose. Chromatographic (C18-RP-HPLC) analysis of a series of 24 17-picolyl and 17-picolinylidene androstane derivatives was carried out. The obtained retention indices (logk, methanol (90%) / water (10%)) were correlated with calculated physicochemical and lipophilicity descriptors. The QSRR analysis was carried out applying principal component regression (PCR) and partial least squares regression (PLS). The PCR and PLS model were selected on the basis of the highest variance and the lowest root mean square error of cross-validation. The obtained PCR and PLS model successfully correlate the calculated molecular descriptors with logk parameter indicating the significance of the lipophilicity of compounds in chromatographic process. On the basis of the obtained results it can be concluded that the obtained logk parameters of the analyzed androstane derivatives can be considered as their chromatographic lipophilicity. These results are the part of the project No. 114-451-347/2015-02, financially supported by the Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development of Vojvodina and CMST COST Action CM1105.

Keywords: androstane derivatives, chromatography, molecular structure, principal component regression, partial least squares regression

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Ziba Khalili, Mohsen Sheikholeslami, Ladan Momayez

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Combining the photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) systems with a thermoelectric (TE) module can raise energy yields since the TE module boosts the system's energy conversion efficiency. In the current study, a PVT system integrated with a TE module was designed and simulated in ANSYS Fluent 19.2. A copper heat transfer tube (HTT) was employed for cooling the photovoltaic (PV) cells. Four different shapes of HTT cross-section, i.e., circular, square, elliptical, and triangular, with equal cross-section areas were investigated. Also, the influence of Cu-Al2O3/water hybrid nanofluid (0.024% volume concentration), fluid inlet velocity (uᵢ ), and amount of solar radiation (G), on the PV temperature (Tₚᵥ) and system performance were investigated. The ambient temperature (Tₐ), wind speed (u𝓌), and fluid inlet temperature (Tᵢ), were considered to be 25°C, 1 m/s, and 27°C, respectively. According to the obtained data, the triangular case had the greatest impact on reducing the compared to other cases. In the triangular case, examination of the effect of hybrid nanofluid showed that the use of hybrid nanofluid at 800 W/m2 led to a reduction of the TPV by 0.6% compared to water, at 0.19 m/s. Moreover, the thermal efficiency ( ) and the overall electrical efficiency (nₜ) of the system improved by 0.93% and 0.22%, respectively, at 0.19 m/s. In a triangular case where G and were 800 W/m2 and 19 m/s, respectively, the highest amount of, thermal power (Eₜ), and, were obtained as 72.76%, 130.84 W and 12.03%, respectively.

Keywords: electrical performance, photovoltaic/thermal, thermoelectric, hybrid nanofluid, thermal efficiency

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Authors: M. N. A. Abdullah, Pritha Roy, R. R. Shil, D. R. Sarker

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Alpha-nucleus interaction is obscured because it produces enhanced cross-sections at large scattering angles known as anomaly in large angle scattering (ALAS). ALAS is prominent in the elastic scattering of α-particles as well as in non-elastic processes involving α-particles for incident energies up to 50 MeV and for targets of mass A ≤ 50. The Woods-Saxon type of optical model potential fails to describe the processes in a consistent manner. Folded potential is a good candidate and often used to construct the potential which is derived from the microscopic as well as semi-microscopic folding calculations. The present work reports the analyses of the elastic scattering of α-particles from ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si at Eα=22-100 MeV and 14.4-120 MeV incident energies respectively in terms of the modified single-folded (MSF) potential. To derive the MSF potential, we take the view that the nucleons in the target nuclei ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si are primarily in α-like clusters and the rest of the time in unclustered nucleonic configuration. The MSF potential, found in this study, does not need any renormalization over the whole range of incident α energies, and the renormalization factor has been found to be exactly 1 for both the targets. The best-fit parameters yield 4Aα = 21 and AN = 3 for α-²⁴Mg potential, and 4Aα = 26 and AN = 2 for α-²⁸Si potential in time-average pictures. The root-mean-square radii of both ²⁴Mg and ²⁸Si are also deduced, and the results obtained from this work agree well with the outcomes of other studies.

Keywords: elastic scattering, optical model, folded potential, renormalization

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Authors: Haj Najafi Leila, Tehranizadeh Mohsen

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Dependencies between diverse factors involved in probabilistic seismic loss evaluation are recognized to be an imperative issue in acquiring accurate loss estimates. Dependencies among component damage costs could be taken into account considering two partial distinct states of independent or perfectly-dependent for component damage states; however, in our best knowledge, there is no available procedure to take account of loss dependencies in story level. This paper attempts to present a method called "modal cost superposition method" for decoupling story damage costs subjected to earthquake ground motions dealt with closed form differential equations between damage cost and engineering demand parameters which should be solved in complex system considering all stories' cost equations by the means of the introduced "substituted matrixes of mass and stiffness". Costs are treated as probabilistic variables with definite statistic factors of median and standard deviation amounts and a presumed probability distribution. To supplement the proposed procedure and also to display straightforwardness of its application, one benchmark study has been conducted. Acceptable compatibility has been proven for the estimated damage costs evaluated by the new proposed modal and also frequently used stochastic approaches for entire building; however, in story level, insufficiency of employing modification factor for incorporating occurrence probability dependencies between stories has been revealed due to discrepant amounts of dependency between damage costs of different stories. Also, more dependency contribution in occurrence probability of loss could be concluded regarding more compatibility of loss results in higher stories than the lower ones, whereas reduction in incorporation portion of cost modes provides acceptable level of accuracy and gets away from time consuming calculations including some limited number of cost modes in high mode situation.

Keywords: dependency, story-cost, cost modes, engineering demand parameter

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: R. Tudugala, B. M. A. I. Balasooriya, W. M. Ediri Arachchi, R. W. M. W. K. Rathnayake, T. D. Premaratna

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Brachytherapy involves placing a source of radiation near the cancer site which gives promising prognosis for cervical cancer treatments. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of random variation of treated volumes in between fractions in the 2D image based fractionated high dose rate brachytherapy for cervical cancer at National Cancer Institute Maharagama, Sri Lanka. Dose plans were analyzed for 150 cervical cancer patients with orthogonal radiographs (2D) based brachytherapy. ICRU treated volumes was modeled by translating the applicators with the help of “Multisource HDR plus software”. The difference of treated volumes with respect to the applicator geometry was analyzed by using SPSS 18 software; to derived patient population based estimates of delivered treated volumes relative to ideally treated volumes. Packing was evaluated according to bladder dose, rectum dose and geometry of the dose distribution by three consultant radiation oncologist. The difference of treated volumes depends on types of the applicators, which was used in fractionated brachytherapy. The means of the “Difference of Treated Volume” (DTV) for “Evenly activated tandem (ET)” length” group was ((X_1)) -0.48 cm3 and ((X_2)) 11.85 cm3 for “Unevenly activated tandem length (UET) group. The range of the DTV for ET group was 35.80 cm3 whereas UET group 104.80 cm3. One sample T test was performed to compare the DTV with “Ideal treatment volume difference (0.00cm3)”. It is evident that P value was 0.732 for ET group and for UET it was 0.00 moreover independent two sample T test was performed to compare ET and UET groups and calculated P value was 0.005. Packing was evaluated under three categories 59.38% used “Convenient Packing Technique”, 33.33% used “Fairly Packing Technique” and 7.29% used “Not Convenient Packing” in their fractionated brachytherapy treatments. Random variation of treated volume in ET group is much lower than UET group and there is a significant difference (p<0.05) in between ET and UET groups which affects the dose distribution of the treatment. Furthermore, it can be concluded nearly 92.71% patient’s packing were used acceptable packing technique at NCIM, Sri Lanka.

Keywords: brachytherapy, cervical cancer, high dose rate, tandem, treated volumes

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Authors: Muhammad Ashraf

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It is experimentally conceded reality that education not just promotes social and intellectual abilities yet, in addition, the incomes of people. The present study is directed to investigate the connection between education level and student income. Data of different education levels is acquired from 300 students through field review from four public sector Universities; two from upper Punjab (University of Gujarat and Government college university-Lahore) and two from lower Punjab (Islamia University-Bahawalpur and The University of Sahiwal). Two-phase estimation is based on the Mincerian human capital model. The first stage presents statistical/descriptive investigation, which shows positive linkage among higher education and income of the students. Econometric estimation is estimated in the second stage by applying Ordinary least Square Method (OLS). Econometric examination reaffirms the importance of higher education as the impact of higher education on students’ incomes accelerates as we move from lower-level education to higher-level education. Educational levels, experience, and working hours are sure and noteworthy with student’s income. Econometric estimation additionally investigated that M. Phil and Ph.D. students have a higher income than bachelor students. Concerning the students, the income profile study commended that the Government ought to give part-time jobs or internships to students as indicated to labor market demand.

Keywords: education, student’s income, experience, universities

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Authors: Yu-Hsiu Li, Chun-Hsun Chen

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Analysis of automatic sprinkler system protects the scooter in underground parking space, the current of general buildings is mainly equipped with foam fire-extinguishing equipment in Taiwan, the automatic sprinkling system has economic and environmental benefits, even high stability, China and the United States allow the parking space to set the automatic sprinkler system under certain conditions. The literature about scooter full-scale fire indicates that the average fire growth coefficient is 0.19 KW/sec2, it represents the scooter fire is classified as ultra-fast time square fire growth model, automatic sprinkler system can suppress the flame height and prevent extending burning. According to the computer simulation (FDS) literature, no matter computer simulation or full-scale experiments, the active order and trend about sprinkler heads are the same. This study uses the computer simulation program (FDS), the simulation scenario designed includes using a different system (enclosed wet type and open type), and different configurations. The simulation result demonstrates that the open type requires less time to extinguish the fire than the enclosed wet type if the horizontal distance between the sprinkler and the scooter ignition source is short, the sprinkler can act quickly, the heat release rate of fire can be suppressed in advance.

Keywords: automatic sprinkler system, underground parking Spac, FDS, scooter fire extinguishing

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Authors: Ibrahim Sani, Suleiman Mohammed., Salisu Sulaiman, Aminu Musa

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The fall army worm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae) has recently become one of the major threats to maize production in the world. It is native to tropical and subtropical America and began to spread to many African and a few Asian Countries. A survey for the observation of infestation and collection of fall armyworm was conducted in field planted with maize in the northern part of Katsina state. Eggs and immature stages were collected, place in a plastic container and brought to the laboratory for observation and study of developmental stages. FAW was identified based on the morphological characteristics, i.e. the “Y” inverted shape on the head capsule and the patterns of black spots on the abdominal segments (square and trapezoidal forms). Different growing stage of maize are affected by fall armyworm, but the damage is greatest during the early growing phase of corn. Heavy infestation on the leaves also cause defoliation. Four developmental stages (eggs larvae, pupae and adults) of the FAW were studied when fed with young corn under laboratory conditions. Furthermore, effective scouting or monitoring of FAW could be practice at early stage of growth of maize.

Keywords: infestation, katsina, maize, fall armyworm

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Authors: Yvonne Nanaama Brew, Bismark Jampim Abrokwah

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Children with disabilities in Ghana are not routinely registered, and this can imply that they may be neglected in national policy planning since global estimates may not be near the exact numbers. Although there are some studies with reports on the prevalence of disability among children in Ghana, reliable information on the prevalence, types of disability in children, and children who die with disabilities in the Greater Accra region are lacking. The current study seeks to investigate the incidence of disability among children two to fourteen years at selected districts in the Greater Accra region of Ghana. A cross-sectional design is adapted with a quantitative method for this study. Parents with disabled children who access child welfare clinics at the Greater Accra regional hospital, Maamobi hospital, Ga west, and Ga south district hospitals will be selected through purposive sampling for the study. An adapted UNICEF structured Ten Questions will be used to collect relevant data about participants. The responses to the questions will be either 'Yes' or 'No'. Parents with children who answer 'Yes' to a disability and purposively sampled parents with children who answer 'No' to disability will be invited to Child Health Clinic at the Greater Accra regional hospital for a free clinical assessment. Data will be entered into Microsoft Office Excel 2013 and imported into STATA version 15 for analysis. The study is expected to provide reliable disaggregated data on less than fourteen years of children with disabilities in the Greater Accra region. The findings and recommendations of the study will demonstrate the importance of early detection of disability and facilitate more quality and holistic planning of appropriate programmes that best safeguard the rights of children with disabilities in Ghana. It will help in policy and decision-making on children less than fourteen years with disabilities in Ghana. Also, findings will be useful for health facilities in Ghana to plan services for disabled children. Finally, the study is expected to add to the guides for the National Council of Persons with Disabilities to fulfill its legal mandate for disabled persons in Ghana.

Keywords: prevalence, disability, children, Ghana

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Authors: Simone Tedeschi, Francesco Crespi, Paolo Liberati, Massimo Paradiso, Antonio Sciala

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This paper aims at contributing to the understanding of smokers’ responses to cigarette prices increases with a focus on heterogeneity, both across individuals and price levels. To do this, a stated preference quasi-experimental design grounded in a random utility framework is proposed to evaluate the effect on smokers’ utility of the price level and variation, along with social conditioning and health impact perception. The analysis is based on individual-level data drawn from a unique survey gathering very detailed information on Italian smokers’ habits. In particular, qualitative information on the individual reactions triggered by changes in prices of different magnitude and composition are exploited. The main findings stemming from the analysis are the following; the average price elasticity of cigarette consumption is comparable with previous estimates for advanced economies (-.32). However, the decomposition of this result across five latent-classes of smokers, reveals extreme heterogeneity in terms of price responsiveness, implying a potential price elasticity that ranges between 0.05 to almost 1. Such heterogeneity is in part explained by observable characteristics such as age, income, gender, education as well as (current and lagged) smoking intensity. Moreover, price responsiveness is far from being independent from the size of the prospected price increase. Finally, by comparing even and uneven price variations, it is shown that uniform across-brand price increases are able to limit the scope of product substitutions and downgrade. Estimated price-response heterogeneity has significant implications for tax policy. Among them, first, it provides evidence and a rationale for why the aggregate price elasticity is likely to follow a strictly increasing pattern as a function of the experienced price variation. This information is crucial for forecasting the effect of a given tax-driven price change on tax revenue. Second, it provides some guidance on how to design excise tax reforms to balance public health and revenue goals.

Keywords: smoking behaviour, preference heterogeneity, price responsiveness, cigarette taxation, random utility models

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Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wan, Kalim Ullah

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Hydrological frequency analysis has been conducted to estimate the minimum flow elevation of the Indus River in Pakistan to protect the ecosystem. The Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique is used to estimate the best-fitted distribution for Minimum Ecological Flows at nine stations of the Indus River in Pakistan. The four selected distributions, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistics (GLO) distribution, Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution, and Pearson type 3 (PE3) are fitted in all sites, usually used in hydro frequency analysis. Compare the performance of these distributions by using the goodness of fit tests, such as the Kolmogorov Smirnov test, Anderson darling test, and chi-square test. The study concludes that the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method recommended that GEV and GPA are the most suitable distributions which can be effectively applied to all the proposed sites. The quantiles are estimated for the return periods from 5 to 1000 years by using MLE, estimations methods. The MLE is the robust method for larger sample sizes. The results of these analyses can be used for water resources research, including water quality management, designing irrigation systems, determining downstream flow requirements for hydropower, and the impact of long-term drought on the country's aquatic system.

Keywords: minimum ecological flow, frequency distribution, indus river, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: Abdelgawad, Salah El-Tahawy

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This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.

Keywords: LSD, climate factors, Nile delta, modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 273

Authors: Yogendra Singh, Mayur Pisode

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Many times it is observed that in multi-storeyed buildings the dynamic properties in the two directions are similar due to which there may be a coupling between the two orthogonal modes of the building. This is particularly observed in bi-symmetric buildings (buildings with structural properties and periods approximately equal in the two directions). There is a swapping of vibrational energy between the modes in the two orthogonal directions. To avoid this coupling the draft revision of IS:1893 proposes a minimum separation of more than 15% between the frequencies of the fundamental modes in the two directions. This study explores the seismic behaviour of bi-symmetrical buildings under uniaxial and bi-axial ground motions. For this purpose, three different types of 8 storey buildings symmetric in plan are modelled. The first building has square columns, resulting in identical periods in the two directions. The second building, with rectangular columns, has a difference of 20% in periods in orthogonal directions, and the third building has half of the rectangular columns aligned in one direction and other half aligned in the other direction. The numerical analysis of the seismic response of these three buildings is performed by using a set of 22 ground motions from PEER NGA database and scaled as per FEMA P695 guidelines to represent the same level of intensity corresponding to the Design Basis Earthquake. The results are analyzed in terms of the displacement-time response of the buildings at roof level and corresponding maximum inter-storey drift ratios.

Keywords: bi-symmetric buildings, design code, dynamic coupling, multi-storey buildings, seismic response

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

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Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Abed Al-Bial, S. Alazazie, A. Shami

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The data were collected from 1992 to 2009 of White Boni sheep maintained at the Regional Research Station in the Central Highlands of Yemen. Data were analyzed to study the growth related traits and their genetic control. The least square means for body weights were 2.26±0.67, 11.14±0.46 and 19.21±1.25 kg for birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), six-month weight (WM6), respectively. The pre- and post-weaning average daily weight gains (ADG1 and ADG2) were 106.04±4.98g and 46.21±8.36 g/ day. Significant differences associated with the year of lambing were observed in body weight and weight gain at different stages of growth. Males were heavier and had a higher weight gain than females at almost all stages of growth and differences tended to increase with age. Single-born lambs had a distinct advantage over those born in twin births at all stages of growth. The lambs in the dam’s second to fourth parities were generally of heavier weight and higher daily weight gain than those in other parities. The heritabilities of all body weights, weight gains at different stages of growth were moderate (0.11-0.43). The phenotypic and genetic correlation among the different body weights were positive and high. The genetic correlations of the pre- and post-weaning average daily gains with body weights were hight to moderate, except BW with ADG2.

Keywords: breed, genetics, growth traits, heritability, sheep

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: V. Pentland, S. Spilsbury, A. Biswas, M. F. Mottola, S. Paplinskie, M. S. Mitchell

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Postpartum depression (PPD) is a form of major depressive disorder that afflicts 10–22% of mothers worldwide. Rising demands for traditional PPD treatment options (e.g., psychiatry), especially in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, are increasingly difficult to meet. More accessible treatment options (e.g., walking) are needed. The objective of this review is to determine the impact of walking on PPD severity. A structured search of seven electronic databases for randomised controlled trials published between 2000 and July 29, 2021, was completed. Studies were included if walking was the sole or primary aerobic exercise modality. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted for studies reporting PPD symptoms measured using a clinically validated tool. A simple count of positive/null effect studies was undertaken as part of a narrative summary. Five studies involving 242 participants were included (mean age=~28.9 years; 100% with mild-to-moderate depression). Interventions were 12 (n=4) and 24 (n=1) weeks long. Each assessed PPD severity using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) and was included in the meta-analysis. The pooled effect estimate suggests that relative to controls, walking yielded clinically significant decreases in mean EPDS scores from baseline to intervention end (pooled MD=-4.01; 95% CI:-7.18 to -0.84, I2=86%). The narrative summary provides preliminary evidence that walking-only, supervised, and group-based interventions, including 90-120+ minutes/week of moderate-intensity walking, may produce greater EPDS reductions. While limited by a relatively small number of included studies, pooled effect estimates suggest walking may help mothers manage PPD. This is the first time walking as a treatment for PPD, an exercise modality that uniquely addresses many barriers faced by mothers has been summarized in a systematic way. Trial registration: PROSPERO (CRD42020197521) on August 16th, 2020

Keywords: postpartum, exercise, depression, walking

Procedia PDF Downloads 184

Authors: M. Lobzhanidze, N. Damenia

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The article analyzes the current structural changes in the economy of Georgia, liberalization and integration processes of the economy. In accordance with this analysis, the peculiarities and the problems of youth employment are revealed. In the paper, the Georgian labor market and its contradictions are studied. Based on the analysis of materials, the socio-economic losses caused by the long-term and mass unemployment of young people are revealed, the objective and subjective circumstances of getting higher education are studied. The youth employment and unemployment rates are analyzed. Based on the research, the factors that increase unemployment are identified. According to the analysis of the youth employment, it has appeared that the unemployment share in the number of economically active population has increased in the younger age group. It demonstrates the high requirements of the labour market in terms of the quality of the workforce. Also, it is highlighted that young people are exposed to a highly paid job. The following research methods are applied in the presented paper: statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend, etc.) and qualitative research (in-depth interview), as well as analysis, induction and comparison methods. The article presents the data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia and the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, policy documents of the Parliament of Georgia, scientific papers by Georgian and foreign scientists, analytical reports, publications and EU research materials on similar issues. The work estimates the students and graduates employment problems existing in the state development strategy and priorities. The measures to overcome the challenges are defined. The article describes the mechanisms of state regulation of youth employment and the ways of improving this regulatory base. As for major findings, it should be highlighted that the main problems are: lack of experience and incompatibility of youth qualification with the requirements of the labor market. Accordingly, it is concluded that the unemployment rate of young people in Georgia is increasing.

Keywords: migration of youth, youth employment, migration management, youth employment and unemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 129

Authors: Argaw Amare, Abbuna Fuffa, Stringer Andy

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Improving public knowledge and changing their attitudes towards antibiotic use will be a crucial early strategy to contain Antibiotic resistance. The current study was undertaken from November 2015 to June 2016. A cross-sectional survey using a pretested questionnaire was conducted on 392 residents (330 male and 62 female) aged 18 and above. Participants were selected randomly. Data was analyzed using simple descriptive statistics; the Chi-square test was used to determine any significant difference. The majority of participants (81%) were farmers in their occupation. Most of the respondents (76%) were not able to define the difference between antimicrobials and antibiotics. Furthermore, (61%) of participants were not able to define what antibiotics and for what purpose they are used. Thirty-four percent of participants do not know the names of antibiotics they have used for their animals and for themselves. Nearly 68% have no knowledge about the disease they have been treated for. The majority of participants (73.5%) agree to complete their course of treatment even if they feel better. About 72.5% of participants disagree that antibiotics are safe and can be used to treat different diseases, without prescription. Most of the participants (95%) treat their animals after diagnosis; more than 80% of them agree to not purchase veterinary drugs from local traders. This study showed that the participants have poor knowledge and good attitude, with an average score of 41.3±16.1% and 79.6±16, respectively. Knowledge and attitude are significantly correlated (p<0.01). The participants in this study had a good attitude toward the rational use of antibiotics. Whereas they lack knowledge with regard to the kinds of antibiotics and the diseases they are prescribed for. Therefore, further educational interventions are necessary to improve their understanding of the antibiotics currently available and the major bacterial diseases they are prescribed.

Keywords: AMR, knoweledge, attitude, perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Aishwarya Ravindra Fursule, Shruti Kshirsagar

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In the intersection of artificial intelligence and human-centered computing, this paper delves into speech emotion recognition (SER). It presents a comparative analysis of machine learning models such as K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),logistic regression, support vector machines (SVM), decision trees, ensemble classifiers, and random forests, applied to SER. The research employs four datasets: Crema D, SAVEE, TESS, and RAVDESS. It focuses on extracting salient audio signal features like Zero Crossing Rate (ZCR), Chroma_stft, Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC), root mean square (RMS) value, and MelSpectogram. These features are used to train and evaluate the models’ ability to recognize eight types of emotions from speech: happy, sad, neutral, angry, calm, disgust, fear, and surprise. Among the models, the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance, achieving approximately 79% accuracy. This suggests its suitability for SER within the parameters of this study. The research contributes to SER by showcasing the effectiveness of various machine learning algorithms and feature extraction techniques. The findings hold promise for the development of more precise emotion recognition systems in the future. This abstract provides a succinct overview of the paper’s content, methods, and results.

Keywords: comparison, ML classifiers, KNN, decision tree, SVM, random forest, logistic regression, ensemble classifiers

Procedia PDF Downloads 25

Authors: Allioua Meryem

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Similar to much of the developing world, Algeria is currently undergoing an epidemiological transition. While mal- and under-nutrition and infectious diseases used to be the main causes of poor health, today there is a higher proportion of chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, cancer, etc. According to estimates for Algeria from the World Health Organization (WHO), NCDs accounted for 63% of all deaths in 2010. The objective of this study was the assessment of eating habits and anthropometric characteristics in a group of youth aged 15 to 19 years in Tlemcen. This study was conducted on a total effective of 806 youth enrolled in a descriptive cross-sectional study; the classification of nutritional status has been established by international standards IOTF, youth were defined as obese if they had a BMI ≥ 95th percentile, and youth with 85th ≤ BMI ≤ 95th percentile were defined as overweight. Wc is classified by the criteria HD, Wc with moderate risk ≥ 90th percentile and Wc with high risk ≥ 95th percentile. The dietary assessment was based on a 24-hour dietary recall assisted by food records. USDA’S nutrient database for Nutrinux® program was used to analyze dietary intake. Nutrients adequacy ratio was calculated by dividing daily individual intake to dietary recommended intake DRI for each nutrient. 9% of the population was overweight, 3% was obese, 7.5% had abdominal obesity, foods eaten in moderation are chips, cookies, chocolate 1-3 times/day and increased consumption of fried foods in the week, almost half of youth consume sugary drinks more than 3 times per week, we observe a decreased intake of energy, protein (P < 0.001, P = 0.003), SFA (P = 0.018), the NAR of phosphorus, iron, magnesium, vitamin B6, vitamin E, folate, niacin, and thiamin reflecting less consumption of fruit, vegetables, milk, and milk products. Youth surveyed have eating habits at risk of developing obesity and chronic disease.

Keywords: food intake, health, anthropometric characteristics, Algeria

Procedia PDF Downloads 531