Search results for: institutional robustness

Authors: Ayse Inel Manav, Nuray Simsek

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The number of people with dementia and the problems that are experienced by these people are increasing along with aging world population. This study was carried out to assess the effects of reminiscence therapy using internet videos on the cognitive condition and apathy levels of elderly people who had mild dementia and lived in nursing homes. This randomly controlled experimental study was conducted between 25 May-25 August 2016 in the nursing home, elderly care and rehabilitation centers in Adana and Seyhan, Turkey. A total of 32 individuals participated in this study, 16 in the experimental group and 16 in the control group. Data were collected using a personal information form developed on the basis of the published literature, the Standardized Mini Mental Test (SMMT) and the Apathy Rating Scale (ARS). The Clinical Research Ethics Committee's approval, written institutional permission, and the written consent of the participants were obtained before data collection. The individuals in the experimental group received reminiscence therapy using internet videos for 60 minutes one day a week for three months. During the same period, 25-30 minutes of unstructured interviews on subjects unrelated to reminiscence were carried out with individuals in the control group. The SMMT and ARS were administered before the applications in the experimental group and at the end of the third month. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations, and frequencies) as well as Student's t-test, the Mann-Whitney U-test, and Wilcoxon's signed ranks test. In this study, the total SMMT post-test scores of the experimental group were higher than those of the control group (p = 0.001; p < 0.01). There was a difference between experimental and control groups' total SMMT post-test scores (p = 0.001; p < 0.01). The experimental group's ARS total post-test scores were higher than those of the control group (p = 0.001; p < 0.01). This study found that group reminiscence therapy using internet videos improved the cognitive functions and apathy levels of elderly individuals with mild dementia.

Keywords: apaty, cognitive testing, dementia, elderly, reminisence threapy

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Authors: Esmat Kamel

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This paper aims to shed light on the extent to which the Agadir Association agreement has fostered inter regional trade between the E.U_26 and the Agadir_4 countries; once that we control for the evolution of Agadir agreement’s exports to the rest of the world. The next valid question will be regarding any remarkable variation in the spatial/sectoral structure of exports, and to what extent has it been induced by the Agadir agreement itself and precisely after the adoption of rules of origin and the PANEURO diagonal cumulative scheme? The paper’s empirical dataset covering a timeframe from [2000 -2009] was designed to account for sector specific export and intermediate flows and the bilateral structured gravity model was custom tailored to capture sector and regime specific rules of origin and the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator was used to calculate the gravity equation. The methodological approach of this work is considered to be a threefold one which starts first by conducting a ‘Hierarchal Cluster Analysis’ to classify final export flows showing a certain degree of linkage between each other. The analysis resulted in three main sectoral clusters of exports between Agadir_4 and E.U_26: cluster 1 for Petrochemical related sectors, cluster 2 durable goods and finally cluster 3 for heavy duty machinery and spare parts sectors. Second step continues by taking export flows resulting from the 3 clusters to be subject to treatment with diagonal Rules of origin through ‘The Double Differences Approach’, versus an equally comparable untreated control group. Third step is to verify results through a robustness check applied by ‘Propensity Score Matching’ to validate that the same sectoral final export and intermediate flows increased when rules of origin were relaxed. Through all the previous analysis, a remarkable and partial significance of the interaction term combining both treatment effects and time for the coefficients of 13 out of the 17 covered sectors turned out to be partially significant and it further asserted that treatment with diagonal rules of origin contributed in increasing Agadir’s_4 final and intermediate exports to the E.U._26 on average by 335% and in changing Agadir_4 exports structure and composition to the E.U._26 countries.

Keywords: agadir association agreement, structured gravity model, hierarchal cluster analysis, double differences estimation, propensity score matching, diagonal and relaxed rules of origin

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Authors: Maelle Noir

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International Human rights norms prescribe the obligation to protect refugee women against violence which requires, inter alia, state provision of justiciable, accessible, affordable and non-discriminatory access to justice. However, the interpretation and application of the law still lack gender sensitivity, intersectionality and a trauma-informed approach. Consequently, many refugee survivors face important structural obstacles preventing access to justice and often experience secondary traumatisation when navigating the legal system. This paper argues that the unique nature of the experiences of refugees with gender-based violence against women exacerbated throughout the migration journey calls for a tailored practice of the law to ensure adequate access to justice. The argument developed here is that the obligation to provide survivors with justiciable, accessible, affordable and non-discriminatory access to justice implies radically transforming the practice of the law altogether. This paper, therefore, proposes feminist lawyering as an alternative approach to the practice of the law when addressing gender-based violence against women refugees. First, this paper discusses the specific nature of gender-based violence against refugees with a particular focus on two aspects of the power-violence nexus: the analysis of the shift in gender roles and expectations following displacement as one of the causes of gender-based violence against women refugees and the argument that the asylum situation itself constitutes a form of state-sponsored and institutional violence. Second, the re-traumatising and re-victimising nature of the legal system is explored with the objective to demonstrate States’ failure to comply with their legal obligation to provide refugee women with effective access to justice. Third, this paper discusses some key practical strategies that have been proposed and implemented to transform the practice of the law when dealing with gender-based violence outside of the refugee context. Lastly, this analysis is applied to the specificities of the experiences of refugee survivors of gender-based violence.

Keywords: feminist lawyering, feminist legal theory, gender-based violence, human rights law, intersectionality, refugee protection

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Authors: Shih-Tsung Chen, Yenchin Hsiao

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Evergreen Lily is a newly-built school after Morakot Typhoon took place. The school is located on Majia farm, which is surrounded by mountains. The fund in the construction of the school is solely sponsored by Chang Yung-Fa Foundation. There are 483 permanent houses near the school belonging to three tribes, Dashe, Majia, and Haocha. Due to the most ancient heritages of Paiwan and Rukai in these three tribes, the school is full of cultural atmosphere. From modern and traditional perspectives, Evergreen Lily strives to establish and develop a long-lasting educational model to meet the expectation of the tribes, parents, and the public. This study is a case study of how to develop indigenous education in newly established schools after the Morakot Hurricane disaster to meet the concept of environmental education. The systematic curriculum construction of education and cultural integration and the systematic practice of curriculum practice will be discussed, and the concept and practice of tribal education curriculum and sustainable environmental education will be understood. This study found that this school integrates the spirit of natural philosophy, democratic education, ethnic and experimental education, and constructs a knowledge system that includes three levels of spiritual culture, institutional culture, and material culture, as well as six dimensions of life philosophy, natural ecology, organizational system, tribal literature and history, song and dance, and technical and artistic methods. Adhering to the concept of harmonious education and the sustainable common good, the development of school-based tribal academic courses accounts for about one-third of the total number of teaching sessions, and there are different cultural themes in grades one to six, and there are clear teaching modules to effectively enhance students' potential inspiration. The complete curriculum implementation model can be described as a model for the development of indigenous schools to sustainable environmental education.

Keywords: environmental education, indigenous education, sustainable development, school-based curriculum

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

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Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should properly evaluate their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, Neural Networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable to offer an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Byomakesh Debata, Jitendra Mahakud

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The recent financial crisis has been characterized by massive monetary policy interventions by the Central bank, and it has amplified the importance of liquidity for the stability of the stock market. This paper empirically elucidates the actual impact of monetary policy interventions on stock market liquidity covering all National Stock Exchange (NSE) Stocks, which have been traded continuously from 2002 to 2015. The present study employs a multivariate VAR model along with VAR-granger causality test, impulse response functions, block exogeneity test, and variance decomposition to analyze the direction as well as the magnitude of the relationship between monetary policy and market liquidity. Our analysis posits a unidirectional relationship between monetary policy (call money rate, base money growth rate) and aggregate market liquidity (traded value, turnover ratio, Amihud illiquidity ratio, turnover price impact, high-low spread). The impulse response function analysis clearly depicts the influence of monetary policy on stock liquidity for every unit innovation in monetary policy variables. Our results suggest that an expansionary monetary policy increases aggregate stock market liquidity and the reverse is documented during the tightening of monetary policy. To ascertain whether our findings are consistent across all periods, we divided the period of study as pre-crisis (2002 to 2007) and post-crisis period (2007-2015) and ran the same set of models. Interestingly, all liquidity variables are highly significant in the post-crisis period. However, the pre-crisis period has witnessed a moderate predictability of monetary policy. To check the robustness of our results we ran the same set of VAR models with different monetary policy variables and found the similar results. Unlike previous studies, we found most of the liquidity variables are significant throughout the sample period. This reveals the predictability of monetary policy on aggregate market liquidity. This study contributes to the existing body of literature by documenting a strong predictability of monetary policy on stock liquidity in an emerging economy with an order driven market making system like India. Most of the previous studies have been carried out in developing economies with quote driven or hybrid market making system and their results are ambiguous across different periods. From an eclectic sense, this study may be considered as a baseline study to further find out the macroeconomic determinants of liquidity of stocks at individual as well as aggregate level.

Keywords: market liquidity, monetary policy, order driven market, VAR, vector autoregressive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Mane Darbinyan, Lusine Hayrapetyan, Elen Matevosyan

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has been created to help students get ready for the workforce, and over the past 25 years, it has grown significantly, offering a variety of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. However, this is still challenging, especially considering the labor market's rapid change. While choosing a career, people face various obstacles because they do not take into consideration their own preferences, which might lead to many other problems like shifting jobs, work stress, occupational infirmity, reduced productivity, and manual error. Besides preferences, people should evaluate properly their technical and non-technical skills, as well as their personalities. Professional counseling has become a difficult undertaking for counselors due to the wide range of career choices brought on by changing technological trends. It is necessary to close this gap by utilizing technology that makes sophisticated predictions about a person's career goals based on their personality. Hence, there is a need to create an automated model that would help in decision-making based on user inputs. Improving career guidance can be achieved by embedding machine learning into the career consulting ecosystem. There are various systems of career guidance that work based on the same logic, such as the classification of applicants, matching applications with appropriate departments or jobs, making predictions, and providing suitable recommendations. Methodologies like KNN, neural networks, K-means clustering, D-Tree, and many other advanced algorithms are applied in the fields of data and compute some data, which is helpful to predict the right careers. Besides helping users with their career choice, these systems provide numerous opportunities which are very useful while making this hard decision. They help the candidate to recognize where he/she specifically lacks sufficient skills so that the candidate can improve those skills. They are also capable of offering an e-learning platform, taking into account the user's lack of knowledge. Furthermore, users can be provided with details on a particular job, such as the abilities required to excel in that industry.

Keywords: career guidance system, machine learning, career prediction, predictive decision, data mining, technical and non-technical skills

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Authors: Diptimayee Nayak, V. Upadhyay

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This paper posits the attempt of conservation and the idea of protected areas from the Marxian primitive accumulation to the politics of sustainability. Using field survey data and secondary literature, this paper analyses an Indian wildlife sanctuary, the Bhitarkanika, Odisha and finds how the hegemony of power among different management regimes attempted for conservation and the present protected area management regime attempted to imbibe the policy of ecotourism for achieving sustainability. The paper contends that the current policy of ecotourism in protected areas acts as a veil for the local deprived people, to avoid many legal conflicts like property rights, livelihood, and man-wildlife issues. Moreover, opening the scope to accumulate on the part of tour operators, the policy of ecotourism establishes a nexus between the profit holders/tour operators (the capitalists) and the power hegemony on the part of management authorities. The sustainability attempt of ecotourism may lead to private benefits maximising the profit accumulation and can expand and continue, showing the bulk of employment generation of local people at petty odd jobs, grabbing a lion share! Positing ecotourism as a capitalist project as against the general assumption of one of the drivers of sustainable development, the paper shows that ecotourism in practice may end up ruining the very social-environmental set up, leading to unsustainability related to waste management, equality, culture, relationship and above all polarised private accumulators in absence of sound mechanism. The paper ends with the caveat that while shopping for neoliberal conservation, the conservators found ecotourism as a product without finalising the hallmark of mechanism/ institutions with appropriate modus operandii to check/guard the quality assurance/standard of ecotourism for sustainability. The paper proposes sound structural and institutional mechanism of ecotourism to be developed to harness sustainability in the local economy as well as in conservation.

Keywords: conservation, ecotourism, Marxian capitalism, protected areas, sustainability

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Authors: Lisa M. Coleman

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The focus on disability, LGBTQ+, and internationalization has certainly been the subject of much research and programmatic across higher education. Many universities have entered into global partnerships with varying success and challenges across the various areas, including laws and policies. Attentiveness to the specific nuances of global inclusion, diversity, equity, belonging, and access (GIDBEA) and the leadership to support these efforts is crucial to the development of longstanding success across the programs. There have been a number of shifts related to diversification across student and alumni bodies. These shifts include but are not limited to how people identify gender, race, and sexuality (and the intersections across such identities), as well as trends across emerging and diverse disability communities. NYU is the most international campus in the United States, with the most campuses and sites outside of its county of origin and the most international students and exchange programs than any other university. As a result, the ongoing work related to GIDEBA is at the center of much of the leadership, administrative, and research efforts. Climate assessment work across NYU’s diverse global campus landscape will serve as the foundation to exemplify best practices related to data collection and dissemination, community and stakeholder engagement, and effective implementation of innovative strategies to close gap areas as identified. The data (quantitative and qualitative) and related research findings represent data collected from close to 22,000 stakeholders across the NYU campuses. The case study centers on specific methodological considerations, data integrity, stakeholder engagement from across student-faculty, staff, and alumni constituencies, and tactics to advance specific GIDBEA initiatives related to navigating shifting landscapes. Design thinking, incubation, and co-creation strategies have been employed to expand, leverage, actualize, and implement GIDBEA strategies that are – concrete, measurable, differentiated, and specific to global sites and regions and emerging trends.

Keywords: disability, LGBTQ+, DEI, research, case studies

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Authors: Jignasha Derasari, Patel Krishna M, Modi Jignasa G.

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Chemical stability of pharmaceutical molecules is a matter of great concern as it affects the safety and efficacy of the drug product.Stability testing data provides the basis to understand how the quality of a drug substance and drug product changes with time under the influence of various environmental factors. Besides this, it also helps in selecting proper formulation and package as well as providing proper storage conditions and shelf life, which is essential for regulatory documentation. The ICH guideline states that stress testing is intended to identify the likely degradation products which further help in determination of the intrinsic stability of the molecule and establishing degradation pathways, and to validate the stability indicating procedures. A simple, accurate and precise stability indicating RP- HPLC method was developed and validated for simultaneous estimation of Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide in tablet dosage form. Separation was achieved on an Phenomenexluna ODS C18 (250 mm × 4.6 mm i.d., 5 µm particle size) by using a mobile phase consisting of Ortho phosphoric acid: Acetonitrile (50:50 %v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 ml/min (pH 3.5 adjusted with 0.1 % TEA in Water) isocratic pump mode, Injection volume 20 µl and wavelength of detection was kept at 283 nm. Retention time for Amiloride Hydrochloride and Furosemide was 1.810 min and 4.269 min respectively. Linearity of the proposed method was obtained in the range of 40-60 µg/ml and 320-480 µg/ml and Correlation coefficient was 0.999 and 0.998 for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide, respectively. Forced degradation study was carried out on combined dosage form with various stress conditions like hydrolysis (acid and base hydrolysis), oxidative and thermal conditions as per ICH guideline Q2 (R1). The RP- HPLC method has shown an adequate separation for Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide from its degradation products. Proposed method was validated as per ICH guidelines for specificity, linearity, accuracy; precision and robustness for estimation of Amiloride hydrochloride and Furosemide in commercially available tablet dosage form and results were found to be satisfactory and significant. The developed and validated stability indicating RP-HPLC method can be used successfully for marketed formulations. Forced degradation studies help in generating degradants in much shorter span of time, mostly a few weeks can be used to develop the stability indicating method which can be applied later for the analysis of samples generated from accelerated and long term stability studies. Further, kinetic study was also performed for different forced degradation parameters of the same combination, which help in determining order of reaction.

Keywords: amiloride hydrochloride, furosemide, kinetic study, stability indicating RP-HPLC method validation

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Authors: Onyinyechi Lilian Uche

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Limiting arbitrariness and political power in governance is expressed in the concept of constitutionalism. Constitutionalism acknowledges the necessity for government but insists upon a limitation being placed upon its powers. It is therefore clear that the essence of constitutionalism is obviation of arbitrariness in governance and maximisation of liberty with adequate and expedient restraint on government. The doctrine of separation of powers accompanied by a system of checks and balances in Nigeria like many other African countries is marked by elements of ‘personal government’ and this has raised questions about whether the apparent separation of powers provided for in the Nigerian Constitution is not just a euphemism for the hegemony of the executive over the other two arms of government; the legislature and the judiciary. Another question raised in the article is whether the doctrine is merely an abstract philosophical inheritance that lacks both content and relevance to the realities of the country and region today? The current happenings in Nigeria and most African countries such as the flagrant disregard of court orders by the Executive, indicate clearly that the concept constitutionalism ordinarily goes beyond mere form and strikes at the substance of a constitution. It, therefore, involves a consideration of whether there are provisions in the constitution which limit arbitrariness in the exercise of political powers by providing checks and balances upon such exercise. These questions underscore the need for Africa to craft its own understanding of the separation of powers between the arms of government in furtherance of good governance as it has been seen that it is possible to have a constitution in place which may just be a mere statement of unenforceable ‘rights’ or may be bereft of provisions guaranteeing liberty or adequate and necessary restraint on exercise of government. This paper seeks to expatiate on the importance of the nexus between constitutionalism and democratic process and a juxtaposition of practices between Nigeria and South Africa. The article notes that an abstract analysis of constitutionalism without recourse to the democratic process is meaningless and also analyses the structure of government of some selected African countries. These are examined the extent to which the doctrine operates within the arms of government and concludes that it should not just be regarded as a general constitutional principle but made rigid or perhaps effective and binding through law and institutional reforms.

Keywords: checks and balances, constitutionalism, democratic process, separation of power

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Authors: Narissa Lewis, Susan Geertshuis

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The global and national employability agenda is changing the higher education landscape as academic staff are faced with the responsibility of developing employability capabilities and attributes in addition to delivering discipline specific content and skills. They realise that the shift towards teaching sustainable capabilities means a shift in the way they teach. But what that shift should be or how they should bring it about is unclear. As part of a national funded project, representatives from several New Zealand (NZ) higher education institutions and the NZ Association of Graduate Employers partnered to discover, trial and disseminate means of embedding employability in the curriculum. Findings from four focus groups (n=~75) and individual interviews (n=20) with staff from several NZ higher education institutions identified factors that enable or hinder embedded employability development within their respective institutions. Participants believed that higher education institutions have a key role in developing graduates for successful lives and careers however this requires a significant shift in culture within their respective institutions. Participants cited three main barriers: lack of strategic direction, support and guidance; lack of understanding and awareness of employability; and lack of resourcing and staff capability. Without adequate understanding and awareness of employability, participants believed it is difficult to understand what employability is let alone how it can be embedded in the curriculum. This presentation will describe some of the impacts that the employability agenda has on staff as they try to move from traditional to contemporary forms of teaching to develop employability attributes of students. Changes at the institutional level are required to support contemporary forms of teaching, however this is often beyond the sphere of influence at the teaching staff level. The study identified that small changes to teaching practices were necessary and a simple model to facilitate change from traditional to contemporary forms of teaching was developed. The model provides a framework to identify small but impactful teaching practices and exemplar teaching practices were identified. These practices were evaluated for transferability into other contexts to encourage small but impactful changes to embed employability in the curriculum.

Keywords: curriculum design, change management, employability, teaching exemplars

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Authors: Magdalena Madany-Saa

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This paper compares language management of two languages policies in plurinational Ecuador: (1) mandatory English language teaching that uses western standards of quality, and (2) Indigenous educación intercultural bilingüe which promotes ancestral knowledges and the indigenous languages of Ecuador. The data are from a comparative institutional ethnography conducted between 2018 and 2022 in English and Kichwa teacher preparation programs in an Ecuadorian teachers’ college. Specifically, the paper explores frameworks of knowledge promoted by different educational actors in both teacher education programs and the ways in which the Ecuadorian transformation towards a knowledge-based economy is intertwined with the country’s linguistic policies. Focusing on the specific role of language advocates and their discursive role in knowledge production, the paper elaborates on the notion of agency in Language Policy and Planning, referred to as epistemic agency. Specifically, epistemic agency is conceptualized through the analysis of English language epistemic advocates who participate in empowering English language policies and endorse knowledge production in that language. By proposing an epistemic agency, this paper argues that in the context of knowledge-based societies, advocates are key in transferring the policies from the political to the epistemic realm – where decisions about what counts as legitimate knowledge are made. The study uses the decolonial option as its analytical framework for critiquing the hegemonic perpetuation of modernity and its knowledge-based models in Latin America derived from the colonial matrix of power. Through this theoretical approach it is argued that if indigenous stakeholders are only viewed as political actors and not as knowledge producers, the hegemony of Global English will reinforce a knowledge-based society constructed upon Global North modernity. In the absence of strong epistemic advocates for indigenous language policies, powerful Global English advocates occupy such vacancies at the language management level, thus dominating the ecology of knowledges in a plurinational and plurilingual Ecuador.

Keywords: educación intercultural bilingüe, English language teaching, epistemic agency, language advocates, plutinationality

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Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

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Authors: Jiyoung Kim, Chae Weon Chung

Abstract:

Labor pain is one of the most common concerns of pregnant women, thus women are in need of possible options they could take to control the pain. So, this study aimed to explore maternal perception of epidural anesthesia and to compare the childbirth outcomes according to the use of epidural anesthesia. For this descriptive study, women who were over 36 weeks of pregnancy were recruited from an out-patient obstetric clinic in a public hospital in Seoul. Women were included in the study if agreed to participate, were pregnant singleton, without pregnancy complication, and expecting a natural birth. Data collection was done twice, the first one at the prenatal care visit and the second one at an in-patient ward on 2nd day postpartum. The instrument of the beliefs about epidural anesthesia, one item of asking intention to use epidural anesthesia, demographics, and obstetrical characteristics were incorporated into a questionnaire. One nurse researcher performed data collection with the structured questionnaire after the approval of the institutional review board. At the initial data collection 133 women were included, while 117 were retained at the second point after excluded 13 women due to the occurrence of complications. Analyses were done by chi-square, t-test, and ANOVA using the SPSS program. Women were aged 32.5 years old, 22.2% were over 35 years old. The average gestational age was 38.5 weeks, and 67.5% were nulliparous. Out of 38 multiparous women, 20 women (52.6%) had received epidural anesthesia in the previous delivery. At the initial interview, 62.6% (n=73) of women wanted to receive epidural anesthesia while 22.4% answered not decided and 15.4% did not want to take the procedure. However, there were changes in proportions between women’s intention to take it and actual procedures done, particularly, two-thirds of women (n=26) who had been undecided were found to receive epidural anesthesia during labor. There was a significant difference in the perception of epidural anesthesia measured before delivery between women who received and not received it (t=3.68, p < .001). Delivery outcomes were statistically different between the two groups in delivery mode (chi-square=8.64, p=.01), O₂ supply during labor (chi-square =5.01, p=.03), duration of 2nd stage of labor (t=3.70, p < .001), and arterial cord blood pH (t=2.64, p=.01). Interestingly, there was no difference in labor pain perceived between women with and without epidural anesthesia. Considering the preference and use of epidural anesthesia, health professionals need to assess coping ability of women undergoing delivery and to provide accurate information about pain control to support their decision making and eventually to enhance delivery outcomes for mothers and neonates.

Keywords: epidural anesthesia, delivery outcomes, labor pain, perception

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Authors: Semaw A., Awet H., Yohannes M.

Abstract:

Background: Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) is a major global public health problem. Individuals living in Sub-Sahara Africa have 60% lifetime risk of acquiring HBV infection. Evidences showed that 80-90% of those born from infected mothers developed chronic HBV. Perinatal HBV transmission is a major determinant of HBV carrier status, its chronic squeal and maintains HBV transmission across generations. Method: Institution based cross-sectional study was conducted among 406 pregnant mothers attending Antenatal clinics at Mekelle and Ayder referral hospital from January 30 to April 1/2014. Epidata version 3.1 was used for data entry and SPSS version 21 statistical software was used for data cleaning, management and finally determine associated factors of hepatitis B surface antigen adjusting important confounders using multivariable logistic regression analysis at 5% level of significance. Result: The overall prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen among pregnant women was 33 (8.1%). The socio-demographic characteristic of the study population showed that there is high positivity among secondary school 189 (46.6%). In the multivariable logistic regression analysis, history of a contact with individuals who had history of hepatitis B infection or jaundice and lifetime number of multiple sexual partners were found to be significantly associated with HBsAg positivity at AOR = 3.73 95%C.I (1.373-10.182) and AOR = 2.57 95%C.I (1.173-5.654), respectively. Moreover, Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and HBV confection rate was found 3.6%. Conclusion: This study has shown that HBV prevalence in pregnant women is highly prevalent (8.1%) in the study area. Contact with individuals who had a history of hepatitis or have jaundice and report of multiple lifetime sexual partnership were associated with hepatitis B infection. Education about HBV transmission and prevention as well as screening all pregnant mothers shall be sought to reduce the serious public health crisis of HBV.

Keywords: HBsAg, hepatitis B, pregnant women, prevalence

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Maren J. Coffman, Victoria C. Scott, J. Claire Schuch, Ashley N. Kelley, Jeri L. Ryan

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Postpartum Depression (PPD) is a leading cause of postpartum morbidity. PPD affects 7.1% of postpartum women and 19.2% of postpartum women when including minor depression. Lower-income women and ethnic minorities are more at risk for developing PPD and face multiple attitudinal and institutional barriers to receiving care. This study aims to identify PPD among low-income women and connect them to appropriate services in order to reduce the illness burden and enhance access to care. Screenings were conducted in two Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinics in the city of Charlotte, North Carolina, USA, from April 2017 to April 2018. WIC is a supplemental nutrition program that provides healthcare and nutrition to low-income pregnant women, breastfeeding women, and children under the age of 5. Additionally, a qualitative study was conducted to better understand the PPD continuum of care in order to identify opportunities for improvement. Mothers with infants were screened for depression risk using the PHQ-2. Mothers who scored ≥ 2 completed two additional standardized screening tools (PHQ-7, to complete the PHQ-9, and the Edinburgh) to assess depressive symptomatology. If indicated they may be suffering from depression, women were referred for case management services. Open-ended questions were used to understand treatment barriers. Four weeks after the initial survey, a follow-up telephone call was made to see if women had received care. Seven focus groups with WIC staff and managers, referral agency staff, local behavioral health professionals, and students examining the screenings, are being conducted March - April, 2018 to gather information related to current screening practices, referrals, follow up and treatment. Mothers (n = 231 as of February, 2018) were screened in English (65%) or Spanish (35%). According to preliminary results, 29% of mothers screened were at risk for postpartum depression (PHQ-2 ≥ 2). There were significant differences in preliminary screening results based on survey language (

Keywords: health disparities, maternal health, mental health, postpartum depression

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Authors: Dante Jose R. Amisola, Glenford M. Prospero

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'Driving What’s Next' is a strong campaign of the new administration of De La Salle Lipa in promoting social innovation in quality education. The new leadership directs social innovation in quality education in the institutional directions and initiatives to address real-world challenges with real-world solutions. This research under study aims to qualify the commitment of the institution to extend the Lasallian quality human and Christian education to all, as expressed in the Institution’s new mission-vision statement. The Classic Grounded Theory methodology is employed in the process of generating concepts in reference to the documents, a series of meetings, focus group discussions and other related activities that account for the conceptualization and formulation of the new mission-vision along with the new education innovation framework. Notably, Driving What’s Next is the emergent theory that encapsulates the commitment of giving quality human and Christian education to all. It directs the new leadership in driving social innovation in quality education initiatives. Correspondingly, Driving What’s Next is continually resolved through four interrelated strategies also termed as the institution's four strategic directions, namely: (1) driving social innovation in quality education, (2) embracing our shared humanity and championing social inclusion and justice initiatives, (3) creating sustainable futures and (4) engaging diverse stakeholders in our shared mission. Significantly, the four strategic directions capture and integrate the 17 UN sustainable development goals, making the innovative curriculum locally and globally relevant. To conclude, the main concern of the new administration and how it is continually resolved, provide meaningful and fun learning experiences and promote a new way of learning in the light of the 21^st century skills among the members of the academic community including stakeholders and extended communities at large, which are defined as: learning together and by association (collaboration), learning through engagement (communication), learning by design (creativity) and learning with social impact (critical thinking).

Keywords: DLSL four strategic directions , DLSL Lipa mission-vision, driving what's next, social innovation in quality education

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Authors: Sampo Tukiainen, Jukka Mattila, Niina Erkama, Erkki Ormala

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During the past decade, calls for more holistic and integrative organizational innovation research have been increasingly voiced. On the one hand, from the theoretical perspective, the reason for this has been the tendency in contemporary innovation studies to focus on disciplinary subfields, often leading to challenges in integrating theories in meaningful ways. For example, we find that during the past three decades the innovation research has evolved into an academic field consisting of several independent research streams, such as studies on organizational learning, project management, and top management teams, to name but a few. The innovation research has also proliferated according to different dimensions of innovation, such as sources, drivers, forms, and the nature of innovation. On the other hand, from the practical perspective the rationale has been the need to develop understanding of the solving of complex, interdisciplinary issues and problems in contemporary and future societies and organizations. Therefore, for advancing theorizing, as well as the practical applicability of organizational innovation research, we acknowledge the need for more integrative and holistic perspectives and approaches. We contribute to addressing this challenge by developing a ‘box transcendent’ perspective to examine interlinkages in and across four key dimensions of organizational innovation processes, which traditionally have been studied in separate research streams. Building on an in-depth, qualitative analysis of 123 interviews of CTOs (or equivalent) and CEOs in top innovative Finnish companies as well as three in-depth case studies, both as part of an EU-level interview study of more than 700 companies, we specify interlinkages in and between i) strategic management, ii) innovation management, iii) implementation and organization, and iv) commercialization, in innovation processes. We contribute to the existing innovation research in multiple ways. Firstly, we develop a cross-dimensional, ‘box transcendent’ conceptual model at the level of organizational innovation process. Secondly, this modeling enables us to extend existing theorizing by allowing us to distinguish specific cross-dimensional innovation ‘profiles’ in two different company categories: large multinational corporations and SMEs. Finally, from the more practical perspective, we consider the implications of such innovation ‘profiles’ for the societal and institutional, policy-making development.

Keywords: holistic research, innovation management, innovation studies, organizational innovation

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Authors: R. Bhattu Babajee, Marie Sandrine Estelle Benoit

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The past decades have witnessed a considerable institutional shift towards Central Bank Independence across economies of the world. The motivation behind such a change is the acceptance that increased central bank autonomy has the power of alleviating inflation bias. Hence, studying whether Central Bank Independence acts as a significant factor behind the price stability in the African economies or whether this macroeconomic aim in these countries result from other economic, political or social factors is a pertinent issue. The main research objective of this paper is to assess the relationship between central bank autonomy and inflation in African economies where inflation has proved to be a serious problem. In this optic, we shall measure the degree of CBI in Africa by computing the turnover rates of central banks governors thereby studying whether decisions made by African central banks are affected by external forces. The purpose of this study is to investigate empirically the association between Central Bank Independence (CBI) and inflation for 10 African economies over a period of 17 years, from 1995 to 2012. The sample includes Botswana, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, South Africa, and Uganda. In contrast to empirical research, we have not been using the usual static panel model for it is associated with potential mis specification arising from the absence of dynamics. To this issue a dynamic panel data model which integrates several control variables has been used. Firstly, the analysis includes dynamic terms to explain the tenacity of inflation. Given the confirmation of inflation inertia, that is very likely in African countries there exists the need for including lagged inflation in the empirical model. Secondly, due to known reverse causality between Central Bank Independence and inflation, the system generalized method of moments (GMM) is employed. With GMM estimators, the presence of unknown forms of heteroskedasticity is admissible as well as auto correlation in the error term. Thirdly, control variables have been used to enhance the efficiency of the model. The main finding of this paper is that central bank independence is negatively associated with inflation even after including control variables.

Keywords: central bank independence, inflation, macroeconomic variables, price stability

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Authors: Shengnan Chen, Shuhua Wang

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Successful production of hydrocarbon from unconventional tight oil reserves has changed the energy landscape in North America. The oil contained within these reservoirs typically will not flow to the wellbore at economic rates without assistance from advanced horizontal well and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing. Efficient and economic development of these reserves is a priority of society, government, and industry, especially under the current low oil prices. Meanwhile, society needs technological and process innovations to enhance oil recovery while concurrently reducing environmental impacts. Recently, big data analysis and artificial intelligence become very popular, developing data-driven insights for better designs and decisions in various engineering disciplines. However, the application of data mining in petroleum engineering is still in its infancy. The objective of this research aims to apply intelligent data analysis and data-driven models to exploit unconventional oil reserves both efficiently and economically. More specifically, a comprehensive database including the reservoir geological data, reservoir geophysical data, well completion data and production data for thousands of wells is firstly established to discover the valuable insights and knowledge related to tight oil reserves development. Several data analysis methods are introduced to analysis such a huge dataset. For example, K-means clustering is used to partition all observations into clusters; principle component analysis is applied to emphasize the variation and bring out strong patterns in the dataset, making the big data easy to explore and visualize; exploratory factor analysis (EFA) is used to identify the complex interrelationships between well completion data and well production data. Different data mining techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, and machine learning technique are then summarized, and appropriate ones are selected to analyze the database based on the prediction accuracy, model robustness, and reproducibility. Advanced knowledge and patterned are finally recognized and integrated into a modified self-adaptive differential evolution optimization workflow to enhance the oil recovery and maximize the net present value (NPV) of the unconventional oil resources. This research will advance the knowledge in the development of unconventional oil reserves and bridge the gap between the big data and performance optimizations in these formations. The newly developed data-driven optimization workflow is a powerful approach to guide field operation, which leads to better designs, higher oil recovery and economic return of future wells in the unconventional oil reserves.

Keywords: big data, artificial intelligence, enhance oil recovery, unconventional oil reserves

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Authors: Srikanth Pandurangi, Basheer Mohammed, Nezar Al Sayegh

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In order to meet the increasing demand for housing care for Kuwaiti citizens, the government authorities in Kuwait are undertaking a series of projects in the form of new large cities, outside the current urban area. Al Mutlaa City located to the north-west of the Kuwait Metropolitan Area is one such project out of the 15 planned new cities. The city accommodates a wide variety of residential developments, employment opportunities, commercial, recreational, health care and institutional uses. This paper examines the application of comprehensive transportation demand modeling works undertaken in VISUM platform to understand the future intracity and intercity travel distribution patterns in Kuwait. The scope of models developed varied in levels of detail: strategic model update, sub-area models representing future demand of Al Mutlaa City, sub-area models built to estimate the demand in the residential neighborhoods of the city. This paper aims at offering model update framework that facilitates easy integration between sub-area models and strategic national models for unified traffic forecasts. This paper presents the transportation demand modeling results utilized in informing the planning of multi-modal transportation system for Al Mutlaa City. This paper also presents the household survey data collection efforts undertaken using GPS devices (first time in Kuwait) and notebook computer based digital survey forms for interviewing representative sample of citizens and residents. The survey results formed the basis of estimating trip generation rates and trip distribution coefficients used in the strategic base year model calibration and validation process.

Keywords: innovative methods in transportation data collection, integrated public transportation system, traffic forecasts, transportation modeling, travel behavior

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Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Max Jesus De Lama

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The challenges of water management are aggravated by global change, which implies high complexity and associated uncertainty; water management is difficult because water networks cross domains (natural, societal, and political), scales (space, time, jurisdictional, institutional, knowledge, etc.) and levels (area: patches to global; knowledge: a specific case to generalized principles). In this context, we need to apply natural and non-natural measures to manage water and soil. The Basin Management Methodology considers multifunctional measures of natural water retention and erosion control and soil formation to protect water resources and address the challenges related to the recovery or conservation of the ecosystem, as well as natural characteristics of water bodies, to improve the quantitative status of water bodies and reduce vulnerability to floods and droughts. This method of water management focuses on the positive impacts of the chemical and ecological status of water bodies, restoration of the functioning of the ecosystem and its natural services; thus, contributing to both adaptation and mitigation of climate change. This methodology was applied in 7 interventions in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River in Huancayo-Junín-Peru, obtaining great benefits in the framework of the participation of alliances of actors and integrated planning scenarios. To implement the methodology in the sub-basin of the Shullcas River, a process called Climate Smart Territories (CST) was used; with which the variables were characterized in a highly complex space. The diagnosis was then worked using risk management and adaptation to climate change. Finally, it was concluded with the selection of alternatives and projects of this type. Therefore, the CST approach and process face the challenges of climate change through integrated, systematic, interdisciplinary and collective responses at different scales that fit the needs of ecosystems and their services that are vital to human well-being. This methodology is now replicated at the level of the Mantaro river basin, improving with other initiatives that lead to the model of a resilient basin.

Keywords: climate-smart territories, climate change, ecosystem services, natural measures, Climate Smart Territories (CST) approach

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Authors: Ahmed Makhoukh

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Quality assurance (QA) has recently become a common practice, which is endorsed by most Higher Education (HE) institutions worldwide, due to the pressure of internal and external forces. One of the aims of this quality movement is to make the contribution of university education to socio-economic development highly significant. This entails that graduates are currently required have a high-quality profile, i.e., to be competent and master the 21st-century skills needed in the labor market. This wave of change, mostly imposed by globalization, has the effect that university education should be learner-centered in order to satisfy the different needs of students and meet the expectations of other stakeholders. Such a shift of focus on the student learning outcomes has led HE institutions to reconsider their strategic planning, their mission, the curriculum, the pedagogical competence of the academic staff, among other elements. To ensure that the overall institutional performance is on the right way, a QA system should be established to assume this task of checking regularly the extent to which the set of standards of evaluation are strictly respected as expected. This operation of QA has the advantage of proving the accountability of the institution, gaining the trust of the public with transparency and enjoying an international recognition. This is the case of Doha Institute (DI) for Graduate Studies, in Qatar, the object of the present study. The significance of this contribution is to show that the conception of quality has changed in this digital age, and the need to integrate a department responsible for QA in every HE institution to ensure educational quality, enhance learners and achieve academic leadership. Thus, to undertake the issue of QA in DI for Graduate Studies, an elite university (in the academic sense) that focuses on a small and selected number of students, a qualitative method will be adopted in the description and analysis of the data (document analysis). In an attempt to investigate the extent to which QA is achieved in Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, three broad indicators will be evaluated (input, process and learning outcomes). This investigation will be carried out in line with the UK Quality Code for Higher Education represented by Quality Assurance Agency (QAA).

Keywords: accreditation, higher education, quality, quality assurance, standards

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Authors: Zelalem B. Gurmessa, Ignatius W. Ferreira, Henry F. Wissink

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The aim of this paper is to critically examine the factors contributing to academic brain drain in the Sub-Saharan Africa with specific reference to the higher education sector. Africa in general and Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, in particular, are experiencing an exodus of highly trained, qualified and competent human resources to other developing and developed countries thereby threatening the overall development of the relevant regions and impeding both public and private service delivery systems in the nation states. The region is currently in a dire situation in terms of health care services, education, science, and technology. The contribution of SSA countries to Science, Technology and Innovation is relatively minimal owing to the migration of skilled professionals due to both push and pull factors. The phenomenon calls for both international and trans-boundary, regional, national and institutional interventions to curb the exodus. Based on secondary data and the review of the literature, the article conceptualizes the antecedents and impacts of human capital flight or brain drain in the SSA countries from a higher education perspective. To this end, the article explores the magnitude, causes, and impacts of brain drain in the region. Despite the lack of consistent data on the magnitude of academic brain drain in the region, a critical analysis of the existing sources shows that pay disparity between developing and developed countries, the lack of enabling working conditions at source countries, fear of security due to political turmoil or unrest, the availability of green pastures and opportunity for development in the receiving countries were identified as major factors contributing to academic brain drain in the region. This hampers the socio-economic, technological and political development of the region. The paper also recommends that further research can be undertaken on the magnitude, causes, characteristics and impact of brain drain on the sustainability and competitiveness of SSA higher education institutions in the region.

Keywords: brain drain, higher education, sub-Saharan Africa, sustainable development

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Authors: Ben Main Piotr Ozieranski

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State government spending on pharmaceuticals stands at 1 trillion USD globally, promoting criticism of the pharmaceutical industry's monetization of drug efficacy, product cost overvaluation, and health injustice. This paper elucidates the mechanisms behind a state-institutional response to this problem through the sociological lens of the strategic relational approach to state power. To do so, 30 expert interviews, legal and policy documents are drawn on to explain how state elites in New Zealand have successfully contested a 30-year “pharmaceutical spending containment policy”. Proceeding from Jessop's notion of strategic “selectivity”, encompassing analyses of the enabling features of state actors' ability to harness state structures, a theoretical explanation is advanced. First, a strategic context is described that consists of dynamics around pharmaceutical dealmaking between the state bureaucracy, pharmaceutical pricing strategies (and their effects), and the industry. Centrally, the pricing strategy of "bundling" -deals for packages of drugs that combine older and newer patented products- reflect how state managers have instigated an “incentivization game” that is played by state and industry actors, including HTA professionals, over pharmaceutical products (both current and in development). Second, a protective context is described that is comprised of successive legislative-judicial responses to the strategic context and characterized by the regulation and the societalisation of commercial law. Third, within the policy, the achievement of increased pharmaceutical coverage (pharmaceutical “mix”) alongside contained spending is conceptualized as a state defence of a "social profit". As such, in contrast to scholarly expectations that political and economic cultures of neo-liberalism drive pharmaceutical policy-making processes, New Zealand's state elites' approach is shown to be antipathetic to neo-liberals within an overall capitalist economy. The paper contributes an analysis of state pricing strategies and how they are embedded in state regulatory structures. Additionally, through an analysis of the interconnections of state power and pharmaceutical value Abrahams's neo-liberal corporate bias model for pharmaceutical policy analysis is problematised.

Keywords: pharmaceutical governance, pharmaceutical bureaucracy, pricing strategies, state power, value theory

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Authors: Sohail Bawani, Kausar S. Khan, Rozina Karmaliani, Shehnaz Mir

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Action research (AR) is one of the types of health systems research (HSR), and participatory action research (PAR) is known for being effective in health systems strengthening (HSS). The current literature on PAR for HSS cites numerous examples and case studies that led to improve health services; build child health information system; increase knowledge and awareness of people about health problems, and identify pathways for institutional and policy change by engaging people in research. But examples of marginalized communities being agents of change in health governance are not common in health systems research (HSR). This approach to PAR is at the heart of Paolo Freire’s Social Transformation Theory and Critical Consciousness building, which was used to design a community-based PAR study in the Northern/mountainous areas of Pakistan. The purpose of the study was to understand the place and role of marginalized communities in strengthening existing health governance structure (health facility and village health committees and health boards) by taking marginalized communities as partners. Community meetings were carried out to identify who is living at the social, political, cultural and economic margins in 40 different villages. Participatory reflection and analysis (PRA) tools were used during the meeting to facilitate identification. Focus group discussions were conducted with marginalized groups using PRA tools and family ethnographies with marginalized families identified through group discussions. Findings of the study revealed that for the marginalized health systems constitute more than just delivery of health services, but it also embraces social determinants that surround systems and its governance. The paper argues that from Frerian perspective people’s participation should not only be limited to knowledge generation. People must be seen active users of the knowledge that they generate for achieving better health outcomes that they want to achieve in the time to come. PAR provides a pathway to the marginalized in playing a role in health governance. The study dissemination planned shall engage the marginalized in a dialogue with service providers so that together a role for the marginalized can be outlined.

Keywords: participatory action research, health systems, marginalized, health services

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Authors: Medine Demir, Volker John

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Fluid equations in a rotating frame of reference have a broad class of important applications in meteorology and oceanography, especially in the large-scale flows considered in ocean and atmosphere, as well as many physical and industrial applications. The Coriolis and the centripetal forces, resulting from the rotation of the earth, play a crucial role in such systems. For such applications it may be required to solve the system in complex three-dimensional geometries. In recent years, the Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame have been investigated in a number of papers using the classical inf-sup stable mixed methods, like Taylor-Hood pairs, to contribute to the analysis and the accurate and efficient numerical simulation. Numerical analysis reveals that these classical methods introduce a pressure-dependent contribution in the velocity error bounds that is proportional to some inverse power of the viscosity. Hence, these methods are optimally convergent but small velocity errors might not be achieved for complicated pressures and small viscosity coefficients. Several approaches have been proposed for improving the pressure-robustness of pairs of finite element spaces. In this contribution, a pressure-robust space discretization of the incompressible Navier--Stokes equations in a rotating frame of reference is considered. The discretization employs divergence-free, $H^1$-conforming mixed finite element methods like Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this approach might come with a modification of the meshes, like the use of barycentric-refined grids in case of Scott--Vogelius pairs. However, this strategy requires the finite element code to have control on the mesh generator which is not realistic in many engineering applications and might also be in conflict with the solver for the linear system. An error estimate for the velocity is derived that tracks the dependency of the error bound on the coefficients of the problem, in particular on the angular velocity. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results. The idea of pressure-robust method could be cast on different types of flow problems which would be considered as future studies. As another future research direction, to avoid a modification of the mesh, one may use a very simple parameter-dependent modification of the Scott-Vogelius element, the pressure-wired Stokes element, such that the inf-sup constant is independent of nearly-singular vertices.

Keywords: navier-stokes equations in a rotating frame of refence, coriolis force, pressure-robust error estimate, scott-vogelius pairs of finite element spaces

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: Mustafa M. Donma, Orkide Donma

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Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a disease associated with obesity. It is a complicated clinical problem possibly affecting body composition as well as macrominerals. These parameters gain further attention, particularly in the pediatric population. The aim of this study is to investigate the amount of discrete body composition fractions in groups that differ in the severity of obesity. Also, the possible associations with calcium (Ca), phosphorus (P), magnesium (Mg) will be examined. The study population was divided into four groups. Twenty-eight, 29, 34, and 34 children were involved in Group 1 (healthy), 2 (obese), 3 (morbid obese), and 4 (MetS), respectively. Institutional Ethical Committee approved the study protocol. Informed consent forms were obtained from the participants. The classification of obese groups was performed based upon the recommendations of the World Health Organization. Metabolic syndrome components were defined. Serum Ca, P, Mg concentrations were measured. Within the scope of body composition, fat mass, fat-free mass, protein mass, mineral mass were determined by a body composition monitor using bioelectrical impedance analysis technology. Weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, head circumference, and neck circumference values were recorded. Body mass index, diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index, fat mass index, and fat-free mass index values were calculated. Data were statistically evaluated and interpreted. There was no statistically significant difference among the groups in terms of Ca and P concentrations. Magnesium concentrations differed between Group 1 and Group 4. Strong negative correlations were detected between P as well as Mg and fat mass index as well as diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index in Group 4, the group, which comprised morbid obese children with MetS. This study emphasized unique associations of P and Mg minerals with diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index during the evaluation of morbid obese children with MetS. It was also concluded that diagnostic obesity notation model assessment index and fat mass index were more proper indices in comparison with body mass index and fat-free mass index for the purpose of defining body composition in children.

Keywords: children, fat mass, fat-free mass, macrominerals, obesity

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