Search results for: relative risk ratios (RRR)

Authors: Jeremy Dixon

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Safeguarding adults forms a core part of social work practice. The Government in England and Wales has made efforts to standardise practices through The Care Act 2014. The Act states that local authorities have duties to make inquiries in cases where an adult with care or support needs is experiencing or at risk of abuse and is unable to protect themselves from abuse or neglect. Despite the importance given to safeguarding adults within law there remains little research about how social workers conduct such decisions on the ground. This presentation reports on findings from a pilot research study conducted within two social work teams in a Local Authority in England. The objective of the project was to find out how social workers interpreted safeguarding duties as laid out by The Care Act 2014 with a particular focus on how workers assessed and managed risk. Ethnographic research methods were used throughout the project. This paper focusses specifically on decisions made by workers in the assessment team. The paper reports on qualitative observation and interviews with five workers within this team. Drawing on governmentality theory, this paper analyses the techniques used by workers to manage risk from a distance. A high proportion of safeguarding referrals came from care workers or managers in residential care homes. Social workers conducting safeguarding assessments were aware that they had a duty to work in partnership with these agencies. However, their duty to safeguard adults also meant that they needed to view them as potential abusers. In making judgments about when it was proportionate to refer for a safeguarding assessment workers drew on a number of common beliefs about residential care workers which were then tested in conversations with them. Social workers held the belief that residential homes acted defensively, leading them to report any accident or danger. Social workers therefore encouraged residential workers to consider whether statutory criteria had been met and to use their own procedures to manage risk. In addition social workers carried out an assessment of the workers’ motives; specifically whether they were using safeguarding procedures as a shortcut for avoiding other assessments or as a means of accessing extra resources. Where potential abuse was identified social workers encouraged residential homes to use disciplinary policies as a means of isolating and managing risk. The study has implications for understanding risk within social work practice. It shows that whilst social workers use law to govern individuals, these laws are interpreted against cultural values. Additionally they also draw on assumptions about the culture of others.

Keywords: adult safeguarding, governmentality, risk, risk assessment

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: Olga Plaza, Katarzyna Kosinska-Kaczynska, Stepan Feduniw, Dominika Pazdzior, Kinga Zebrowska, Katarzyna Kwiatkowska

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Introduction: The main causes of depression among pregnant women remain unclear. However, it is clear that pregnancy carries a higher risk of depression occurrence. Left untreated, prenatal depression can be a cause of serious both maternal and neonatal complications. Aim of the study: The aim of the study was to define potential risk factors of prenatal depression and to assess the frequency of its occurrence among pregnant women. Material and Methods: A prospective cross-sectional study was performed among 346 women. The self- composed questionnaire consisting of 46 questions, was distributed via the Internet between November 2017 and March 2018. The questionnaire contained the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), in which the results of 13 and more points (out of 30) suggested possible prenatal depression. Statistical analysis was performed with Chi2 Pearson. P value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: 37.57% (n=130) of women had a score of 13 or more points. Women with depressive symptoms (DS) reported lack of support from the partner (46.9% vs. 16.2%; p < 0.001) as well as other family members (40.8% vs. 14.4%; p < 0.001), current pregnancy being unplanned (21.5% vs. 12.5%; p=0.014) and low socio-economic status (10% vs. 0.9%; p < 0.001). Both early and advanced maternal age seemed to play a role in occurrence of DS: in women aged 17-24 40.8% declared symptoms (vs 28.7%; p < 0.01), in mothers aged ≥37 6.2% did (vs 0.5%; p < 0.001). Smoking during pregnancy was also more frequent among patients with DS (31.5% vs. 18.1%; p=0.004). Previous diagnosis of depression or other mood disorders significantly increased a chance of DS occurrence (respectively- 17.7% vs. 4.6%; p < 0.001 and 49.2% vs. 25%; p<0.001). Parental diagnosis of mood disorders and other mental disorders was also more frequent in this group of patients (respectively- 24.6% vs. 15.7%; p= 0.026 and 26.4% vs. 9.7%; p < 0.001). Only 23.8% of women with DS sought help from healthcare professionals, with 21.5% receiving pharmacological treatment. Conclusions: Pregnant women often report having DS. Evaluation of risk factors of DS and possible prenatal depression is essential in proper screening for depression among pregnant women.

Keywords: obstetrics, polish women, prenatal care, prenatal depression, risk factors

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Authors: Chao Hu, Xinwen Liao, Qing-Hua Qin, Gang Wang

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The hierarchical carbon nanotube (CNT)/carbon fiber (CF)/high density polyethylene (HDPE) was fabricated via compound extrusion and injection molding, in which to author’s best knowledge CNT was employed as a nano-coatings on the surface of CF for the first time by spray coating technique. The CNT coatings relative to CF was set at 1 wt% and the CF content relative to the composites varied from 0 to 25 wt% to study the influence of CNT coatings and CF contents on the mechanical, thermal and morphological performance of this hierarchical composites. The results showed that with the rise of CF contents, the mechanical properties, including the tensile properties, flexural properties, and hardness of CNT/CF/HDPE composites, were effectively improved. Furthermore, the CNT-coated composites showed overall higher mechanical performance than the uncoated counterparts. It can be ascribed to the enhancement of interfacial bonding between the CF and HDPE via the incorporation of CNT, which was demonstrated by the scanning electron microscopy observation. Meanwhile, the differential scanning calorimetry data indicated that by the introduction of CNT and CF, the crystallization temperature and crystallinity of HDPE were affected while the melting temperature did not have an obvious alteration.

Keywords: carbon fibers, carbon nanotubes, extrusion, high density polyethylene

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Authors: D. Aubin, D. Won, H. Schleibinger, P. Lajoie, D. Gauvin, J.-M. Leclerc

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This paper describes the results obtained in a two-year randomized intervention field study investigating the impact of ventilation rates on indoor air quality (IAQ) and the respiratory health of asthmatic children in Québec City, Canada. The focus of this article is on the comparative effectiveness of heat recovery ventilators (HRVs) and energy recovery ventilators (ERVs) at increasing ventilation rates, improving IAQ, and maintaining an acceptable indoor relative humidity (RH). In 14% of the homes, the RH was found to be too low in winter. Providing more cold and dry outside air to under-ventilated homes in winter further reduces indoor RH. Thus, low-RH homes in the intervention group were chosen to receive ERVs (instead of HRVs) to increase the ventilation rate. The installation of HRVs or ERVs led to a near doubling of the ventilation rates in the intervention group homes which led to a significant reduction in the concentration of several key of pollutants. The ERVs were also effective in maintaining an acceptable indoor RH since they avoided excessive dehumidification of the home by recovering moisture from the exhaust airstream through the enthalpy core, otherwise associated with increased cold supply air rates.

Keywords: asthma, field study, indoor air quality, ventilation

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Authors: Jaffry Zakaria, Nor Azlina Hasbullah

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The research on water quality based on 'Water Quality Index' (WQI) has been on the run along Kampar River in Perak State of Malaysia. This study was conducted to achieve several key objective that determe the value of the parameters that were studied based on Water Quality Index (WQI). The parameters include Dissolved Oxygen (DO), pH, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Suspended Solids. In this study, three sampling stations were selected. Through observations from the researchers, several pollutions were found occurring along the research area such as the disposal of waste water directly without treatment from villagers, widespread dumping of solid waste and the development of the surrounding areas that contributed to the pollution of Sungai Kampar in Perak, Malaysia. Sungai Kampar is commonly used for water recreational activities as well as for bathing purposes. Results showed that Sungai Kampar is classified under category III. According to Interim National Water Quality Standard for Malaysia (INWQS), rivers in the third grade are clean but not suitable for river recreational activities. Therefore, there is a requirement to investigate and analysis the water quality of all white water rivers in Malaysia focusing on the area of water activities. The combination of technology and risk management based on risk assessments can help the recreational industry to survive in future.

Keywords: risk assessments, White Water River, water quality index (WQI), Interim National Water Quality Standard for Malaysia (INWQS)

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Authors: Seyed Mohammadbagher Jafari, Izmeera Shiham, Masoud Arianfar

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The increased usage of Social media for different uses in turn makes it important to develop an understanding of users and their attitudes toward these sites, and moreover, the uses of such sites in a broader perspective such as broadcasting. This quantitative study addressed the problem of factors influencing the adoption of social media as a medium of public service broadcasting in the Republic of Maldives. These powerful and increasingly usable tools, accompanied by large public social media datasets, are bringing in a golden age of social science by empowering researchers to measure social behavior on a scale never before possible. This was conducted by exploring social responses on the use of social media. Research model was developed based on the previous models such as TAM, DOI and Trust combined model. It evaluates the influence of perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, trust, complexity, compatibility and relative advantage influence on the adoption of social Media. The model was tested on a sample of 365 Maldivian people using survey method via questionnaire. The result showed that perceived usefulness, trust, relative advantage and complexity would highly influence the adoption of social media.

Keywords: adoption, broadcasting, maldives, social media

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Authors: Javad Sadoghi Yazdi, Robb Eric S. Moss

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This paper utilizes a probabilistic liquefaction triggering method for modeling post-liquefaction ground deformation. This cone penetration test CPT-based liquefaction triggering is employed to estimate the factor of safety against liquefaction (FSL) and compute the maximum cyclic shear strain (γmax). The study identifies a maximum PL value of 90% across various relative densities, which challenges the decrease from 90% to 70% as relative density decreases. It reveals that PL ranges from 5% to 50% for volumetric strain (εvol) less than 1%, while for εvol values between 1% and 3.2%, PL spans from 50% to 90%. The application of the CPT-based simplified liquefaction triggering procedures has been employed in previous researches to estimate liquefaction ground-failure indices, such as the Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) and Liquefaction Severity Number (LSN). However, several studies have been conducted to highlight the variability in liquefaction probability calculations, suggesting a more accurate depiction of liquefaction likelihood. Consequently, the utilization of these simplified methods may not offer practical efficiency. This paper further investigates the efficacy of various established liquefaction vulnerability parameters, including LPI and LSN, in explaining the observed liquefaction-induced damage within residential zones of Christchurch, New Zealand using results from CPT database.

Keywords: cone penetration test (CPT), liquefaction, postliquefaction, ground failure

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Authors: Atef Y. Shenouda, Anton A. Momchilov

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Graphene and CdO with different stoichiometric ratios of Cd(CH₃COO)₂ and graphene samples were prepared by hydrothermal reaction. The crystalline phases of pure CdO and 3CdO:1graphene were identified by X-ray diffraction (XRD). The particle morphology was studied with SEM. Furthermore, impedance measurements were applied. Galvanostatic measurements for the cells were carried out using potential limits between 0.01 and 3 V vs. Li/Li⁺. The current cycling intensity was 10⁻⁴ A. The specific discharge capacity of 3CdO-1G cell was about 450 Ah.Kg⁻¹ up to more than 100 cycles.

Keywords: CdO, graphene, negative electrode, lithium battery

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Authors: Retius Chifurira

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Logistic regression model is the most used regression model to predict meteorological drought probabilities. When the dependent variable is extreme, the logistic model fails to adequately capture drought probabilities. In order to adequately predict drought probabilities, we use the generalized linear model (GLM) with the quantile function of the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) as the link function. The method maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value (GEV) regression model. We compare the performance of the logistic and the GEV regression models in predicting drought probabilities for Zimbabwe. The performance of the regression models are assessed using the goodness-of-fit tests, namely; relative root mean square error (RRMSE) and relative mean absolute error (RMAE). Results show that the GEV regression model performs better than the logistic model, thereby providing a good alternative candidate for predicting drought probabilities. This paper provides the first application of GLM derived from extreme value theory to predict drought probabilities for a drought-prone country such as Zimbabwe.

Keywords: generalized extreme value distribution, general linear model, mean annual rainfall, meteorological drought probabilities

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Authors: Laatra Zemmouri, Said Boukhechem, Samia Haffaf, Mohamed Lafri

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A study was conducted in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with abortion in ewes in the region of M’sila, located in central-eastern Algeria. A questionnaire was carried out to obtain information about the occurrence of abortion, sheep housing conditions, vaccination, feeding and management practices, and whether the farmers kept other livestock. This cross-sectional study was conducted for 36 months (between 2016 and 2019). A total of 71 sheep flocks were visited. Among 8168 ewes, we recorded 734 (8.99%) abortions and 3861 lambings. The risk factor analysis using multivariable logistic regression showed an association between abortion and vaccination against brucellosis (CI 95%= 2,76-1,35; p<0,001). Abortion decreased when dogs are owned (CI 95%= 0,36-0,84; p= 0.006), however, abortion increased with the presence of cats in farms (CI 95%= 1,24-2,8; p=0.003). There was a significant association between abortion and keeping goats (CI 95%= 1,18-2,40; p= 0.004), bovins (CI 95%= 0,3-0,68; p<0,001) and poultry CI 95%= 0,39-0,77; p= 0.001) in farms. Through this study, it is noticed that a strong association between the occurrence of abortion and estrus synchronization, stillbirth occurrence, and feed supplementation (p<0.05). Identification of the causes of abortion is an important task to reduce foetal losses and to improve livestock productivity.

Keywords: abortion, ewes, questionnaire, risk factors

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Authors: Naseem Fatima, A. N. Srivastava, Tasleem Raza, Vijay Kumar

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Introduction: Carcinoma gallbladder is third most common gastrointestinal lethal disease with the highest incidence and mortality rate among women in Northern India. Scientists have found several risk factors that make a person more likely to develop gallbladder cancer; among these risk factors, deregulation of miRNAs has been demonstrated to be one of the most crucial factors. The changes in the expression of specific miRNA genes result in the control of inflammation, cell cycle regulation, stress response, proliferation, differentiation, apoptosis and invasion thus mediate the process in tumorgenesis. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of MiRNA-335 and may as a molecular marker in early detection of gallbladder cancer in suspected cases. Material and Methods: A total of 20 consecutive patients with gallbladder cancer aged between 30-75 years were registered for the study. Total RNA was extracted from tissue by using the mirVANA MiRNA isolation Kit according to the manufacturer’s protocol. The MiRNA- 335 and U6 snRNA-specific cDNA were reverse-transcribed from total RNA using Taqman microRNA reverse-transcription kit according to the manufacturer’s protocol. TaqMan MiRNA probes hsa-miR-335 and Taqman Master Mix without AmpEase UNG, Individual real-time PCR assays were performed in a 20 μL reaction volume on a Real-Time PCR system (Applied Biosystems StepOnePlus™) to detect MiRNA-335 expression in tissue. Relative quantification of target MiRNA expression was evaluated using the comparative cycle threshold (CT) method. The correlation was done in between cycle threshold (CT Value) of target MiRNA in gallbladder cancer with respect to non-cancerous Cholelithiasis gallbladder. Each sample was examined in triplicate. The Newman-Keuls Multiple Comparison Test was used to determine the expression of miR-335. Results: MiRNA335 was found to be significantly downregulated in the gallbladder cancer tissue (P<0.001), when compared with non-cancerous Cholelithiasis gallbladder cases. Out of 20 cases, 75% showed reduced expression of MiRNA335, were at last stage of disease with low overall survival rate and remaining 25% were showed up-regulated expression of MiRNA335 with high survival rate. Conclusion: The present study showed that reduced expression of MiRNA335 is associated with the advancement of the disease, and its deregulation may provide important clues to understanding it as a prognostic marker and opportunities for future research.

Keywords: carcinoma gallbladder, downregulation, MiRNA-335, RT-PCR assay

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Authors: Alaa M. Younis, Ismail S. Ismail, Lamiaa I. Mohamedein, Shimaa F. Ahmed

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Sandy surface sediments collected from fourteen sites along the gulfs of Suez and Aqaba coasts, Egypt were analyzed for heavy metals including Iron, Manganese, Zinc, Chromium, Nickel, Lead, Copper and Cadmium in order to evaluate the pollution status and environmental risk assessment of the study area. The obtained results showed that the concentrations of investigated metals are represented in the following sequence; For Gulf of Aqaba sediments Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni > Cu > Cd. While for Gulf of Suez Sediments Fe > Mn > Pb > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd. The degree of surface sediment contamination using Geo-accumulation index (I geo) and Metal Pollution Index (MPI) was computed. Higher MPI values were observed at the sites III (Nama Bay) and VIII (Rex Beach). According to Sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) approach, Pb and Cu in the gulf of Suez at station IX (Kabanon Beach) had probably adverse ecological effects to marine organisms.

Keywords: heavy metal, environmental risk, Suez gulf, Aqaba gulf

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Authors: Rebar Mohammed Hussein

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Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) protocols have transformed perioperative care, aiming to reduce surgical stress, optimize pain management, and accelerate recovery. This study evaluates the impact of ERAS on anesthesia management in high-risk surgical patients, focusing on opioid-sparing techniques and multimodal analgesia. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients undergoing major surgeries within an ERAS program, comparing outcomes with a historical cohort receiving standard care. Key metrics included postoperative pain scores, opioid consumption, length of hospital stay, and complication rates. Results indicated that the implementation of ERAS protocols significantly reduced postoperative opioid use by 40% and improved pain management outcomes, with 70% of patients reporting satisfactory pain control on postoperative day one. Additionally, patients in the ERAS group experienced a 30% reduction in length of stay and a 20% decrease in complication rates. These findings underscore the importance of integrating ERAS principles into anesthesia practice, particularly for high-risk patients, to enhance recovery, improve patient satisfaction, and reduce healthcare costs. Future directions include prospective studies to further refine anesthesia techniques within ERAS frameworks and explore their applicability across various surgical specialties.

Keywords: ERAS protocols, high-risk surgical patients, anesthesia management, recovery

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Authors: Zafar Iqbal, Nigel P. Grigg, K. Govindaraju, Nicola M. Campbell-Allen

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Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is structured approach. It has been used to improve the quality of products and process in a wide range of fields. Using this systematic tool, practitioners normally rank Voice of Customer ratings (VoCs) in order to produce Improvement Ratios (IRs) which become the basis for prioritising process / product design or improvement activities. In one matrix of the House of Quality (HOQ) competitors are rated. The method of obtaining improvement ratios (IRs) does not always integrate the competitors’ rating in a systematic way that fully utilises competitor rating information. This can have the effect of diverting QFD practitioners’ attention from a potentially important VOC to less important VOC. In order to enhance QFD analysis, we present a more systematic method for integrating competitor ratings, utilising the geometric mean of the customer rating matrix. In this paper we develop a new approach, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), in which we generating a matrix of multiple comparisons of all competitors, and derive a geometric mean for each competitor. For each VOC an improved IR is derived which-we argue herein - enhances the initial VOC importance ratings by integrating more information about competitor performance. In this way, our method can help overcome one of the possible shortcomings of QFD. We then use a published QFD example from literature as a case study to demonstrate the use of the new AHP-based IRs, and show how these can be used to re-rank existing VOCs to -arguably- better achieve the goal of customer satisfaction in relation VOC ratings and competitors’ rankings. We demonstrate how two dimensional AHP-based geometric mean derived from the multiple competitor comparisons matrix can be useful for analysing competitors’ rankings. Our method utilises an established methodology (AHP) applied within an established application (QFD), but in an original way (through the competitor analysis matrix), to achieve a novel improvement.

Keywords: quality function deployment, geometric mean, improvement ratio, AHP, competitors ratings

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Authors: Meng Wu

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Motion planning is a common task required to be fulfilled by robots. A strategy combining Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) and gravity gradient inversion algorithm is proposed for motion planning of mobile robots. In this paper, in order to realize optimal motion planning strategy, the cost function in ACO is designed based on gravity gradient inversion algorithm. The obstacles around mobile robot can cause gravity gradient anomalies; the gradiometer is installed on the mobile robot to detect the gravity gradient anomalies. After obtaining the anomalies, gravity gradient inversion algorithm is employed to calculate relative distance and orientation between mobile robot and obstacles. The relative distance and orientation deduced from gravity gradient inversion algorithm is employed as cost function in ACO algorithm to realize motion planning. The proposed strategy is validated by the simulation and experiment results.

Keywords: motion planning, gravity gradient inversion algorithm, ant colony optimization

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Authors: Mohammad Rajabalinejad

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Safety is often seen as a requirement or a performance indicator through the design process, and this does not always result in optimally safe products or systems. This paper suggests integrating the best safety practices with the design process to enrich the exploration experience for designers and add extra values for customers. For this purpose, the commonly practiced safety standards and design methods have been reviewed and their common blocks have been merged forming Safety Cube. Safety Cube combines common blocks for design, hazard identification, risk assessment and risk reduction through an integral approach. An example application presents the use of Safety Cube for design of machinery.

Keywords: safety, safety cube, product, system, machinery, design

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Authors: Mohammad Syahirin Aisha, Khairul Imran Sainan

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The PEM fuel cell is a device that generate electric by electrochemical reaction between hydrogen fuel and oxygen in the fuel cell stack. PEM fuel cell consists of an anode (hydrogen supply), a cathode (oxygen supply) and an electrolyte that allow charges move between the two positions of the fuel cell. The only product being developed after the reaction is water (H2O) and heat as the waste which does not emit greenhouse gasses. The performance of fuel cell affected by numerous parameters. This study is restricted to cathode parameters that affect fuel cell performance. At the anode side, the reactant is not going through any changes. Experiments with variation in air velocity (3m/s, 6m/s and 9m/s), temperature (10oC, 20oC, 35oC) and relative humidity (50%, 60%, and 70%) have been carried out. The experiments results are presented in the form of fuel cell stack power output over time, which demonstrate the impacts of the various air condition on the execution of the PEM fuel cell. In this study, the experimental analysis shows that with variation of air conditions, it gives different fuel cell performance behavior. The maximum power output of the experiment was measured at an ambient temperature of 25oC with relative humidity and 9m/s velocity of air.

Keywords: air-breathing PEM fuel cell, cathode side, performance, variation in air condition

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Authors: Pui Hong Chung, Wing Chi Ho, Jun Li, Cyrus Leung, Ek Yeoh

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Background: Cigarette smoking is associated with poor tuberculosis (TB) outcomes in terms of progression of active TB, relapse of TB and TB-related mortality, but the association with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is unclear. The systematic review conducted aimed at studying the association between active smoking and LTBI, and likelihood of dose-response relationship. Methods: Two independent reviewers searched three electronic databases comprising PudMed, Medline by EBSCOHOST, ExcerptaMedica Database (EMBASE), from inception up to 31st Dec 2015 for studies reporting data on current smoking and the LTBI with tuberculin skin test (TST) or interferon-γ release assays (IGRAs) results, comparing the odds ratios (ORs) of outcome measure of TST or IGRAs among current smokers with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Seven studies were identified, including six cross-sectional studies and one longitudinal cohort study. The outcome measures from three studies were in TST, three studies in IGRAs and one for both tests. For TST, OR ranging from 1.39 to 3.40 (95% CI) with all studies shown positive association between cigarette smoking and LTBI. For IGRAs, OR ranging from 0.47 to 1.89 (95% CI) with one study shown the negative association that might be related to impaired interferon-gamma production in immunosuppressive persons. One identified study demonstrated positive dose-response relationship in TST result. Conclusions: Cigarette smoking is likely to be a risk factor of LTBI. There is the important implication for TB and tobacco control program to halt TB by empowering public health policy. Further study is also needed to provide more evidence of the dose-response model/relationship.

Keywords: latent tuberculosis infection, systematic review, active smoking, model

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Authors: Paul Buchana, Patrick E. Mc Sharry

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In 2017 there will be about 38 wind farms in the North Sea belonging to 5 different countries. The North Sea is ideal for offshore wind power generation and is thus attractive to offshore wind energy developers and investors. With concerns about the potential for offshore wind turbines to sustain substantial damage as a result of extreme weather conditions, particularly windstorms, this poses a unique challenge to insurers and reinsurers as to adequately quantify the risk and offer appropriate insurance cover for these assets. The need to manage this risk also concerns regulators, who provide the oversight needed to ensure that if a windstorm or a series of storms occur in this area over a one-year time frame, the insurers of these assets in the EU remain solvent even after meeting consequent damage costs. In this paper, using available European windstorm data for the past 33 years and actual wind farm locations together with information pertaining to each of the wind farms (number of turbines, total capacity and financial value), we present a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the number of turbines that would be buckled in each of the wind farms using maximum wind speeds reaching each of them. These wind speeds are drawn from historical windstorm data. From the number of turbines buckled, associated financial loss and output capacity can be deduced. The results presented in this paper are targeted towards offshore wind energy developers, insurance and reinsurance companies and regulators.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, North Sea wind farms, offshore wind power, risk analysis

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Authors: Emma Avoyan

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The safety standards for flood protection in the Netherlands have been revised recently. It is expected that all major flood-protection structures will have to be reinforced to meet the new standards. The Dutch Flood Protection Programme aims at accomplishing this task through innovative integrated projects such as construction of multi-functional flood defenses. In these projects, flood safety purposes will be combined with spatial planning, nature development, emergency management or other sectoral objectives. Therefore, implementation of dike reinforcement projects requires early involvement and collaboration between public and private sectors, different governmental actors and agencies. The development and implementation of such integrated projects has been an issue in Dutch flood risk management since long. Therefore, this article analyses how cross-sector collaboration within flood risk governance in the Netherlands has evolved over time, and how this development can be explained. The integrative framework for collaborative governance is applied as an analytical tool to map external factors framing possibilities as well as constraints for cross-sector collaboration in Dutch flood risk domain. Supported by an extensive document and literature analysis, the paper offers insights on how the system context and different drivers changing over time either promoted or hindered cross-sector collaboration between flood protection sector, urban development, nature conservation or any other sector involved in flood risk governance. The system context refers to the multi-layered and interrelated suite of conditions that influence the formation and performance of complex governance systems, such as collaborative governance regimes, whereas the drivers initiate and enable the overall process of collaboration. In addition, by applying a method of process tracing we identify a causal and chronological chain of events shaping cross-sectoral interaction in Dutch flood risk management. Our results indicate that in order to evaluate the performance of complex governance systems, it is important to firstly study the system context that shapes it. Clear understanding of the system conditions and drivers for collaboration gives insight into the possibilities of and constraints for effective performance of complex governance systems. The performance of the governance system is affected by the system conditions, while at the same time the governance system can also change the system conditions. Our results show that the sequence of changes within the system conditions and drivers over time affect how cross-sector interaction in Dutch flood risk governance system happens now. Moreover, we have traced the potential of this governance system to shape and change the system context.

Keywords: collaborative governance, cross-sector interaction, flood risk management, the Netherlands

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Authors: Abhijit Trailokya

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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD’s) are the major cause of morbidity and mortality in both developed and developing countries. Many clinical trials have demonstrated that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering, reduces the incidence of coronary and cerebrovascular events across a broad spectrum of patients at risk. Guidelines for the management of patients at risk have been established in Europe and North America. The guidelines have advocated progressively lower LDL-C targets and more aggressive use of statin therapy. In Indian patients, comprehensive data on dyslipidemia management and its treatment outcomes are inadequate. There is lack of information on existing treatment patterns, the patient’s profile being treated, and factors that determine treatment success or failure in achieving desired goals. Purpose: The present study was planned to determine the lipid control status in high-risk dyslipidemic patients treated with lipid-lowering therapy in India. Methods: This cross-sectional, non-interventional, single visit program was conducted across 483 sites in India where male and female patients with high-risk dyslipidemia aged 18 to 65 years who had visited for a routine health check-up to their respective physician at hospital or a healthcare center. Percentage of high-risk dyslipidemic patients achieving adequate LDL-C level (< 70 mg/dL) on lipid-lowering therapy and the association of lipid parameters with patient characteristics, comorbid conditions, and lipid lowering drugs were analysed. Results: 3089 patients were enrolled in the study; of which 64% were males. LDL-C data was available for 95.2% of the patients; only 7.7% of these patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid-lowering therapy, which may be due to inability to follow therapeutic plans, poor compliance, or inadequate counselling by physician. The physician’s lack of awareness about recent treatment guidelines also might contribute to patients’ poor adherence, not explaining adequately the benefit and risks of a medication, not giving consideration to the patient’s life style and the cost of medication. Statin was the most commonly used anti-dyslipidemic drug across population. The higher proportion of patients had the comorbid condition of CVD and diabetes mellitus across all dyslipidemic patients. Conclusion: As per the European Society of Cardiology guidelines the ideal LDL-C levels in high risk dyslipidemic patients should be less than 70%. In the present study, 7.7% of the patients achieved LDL-C levels < 70 mg/dL on lipid lowering therapy which is very less. Most of high risk dyslipidemic patients in India are on suboptimal dosage of statin. So more aggressive and high dosage statin therapy may be required to achieve target LDLC levels in high risk Indian dyslipidemic patients.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, LDL-C, lipid lowering drug, statins

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Authors: Pankaj Kumar

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Despite few works reported about fluoride enrichment in the groundwater, no studies have done on exposure analysis for biological components in Patan district, Gujarat, Western India. Considering its vital importance, this study strives to quantify the bioaccumulation of fluoride in seven different crops and vegetables, viz. Spinach and Mustard leaves, Cauliflower, Wheat grains, Amaranth seed, Radish, and Garlic grown in the potentially fluoride contaminated area. Result shows that the order for fluoride accumulation among different analyzed plants are spinach (63.3 mg/kg) > mustard (48.9 mg/kg) > cauliflower (41.1 mg/kg) > radish (35.7 mg/kg) > garlic (33.2 mg/kg) > amaranth seed (26.7 mg/kg) > wheat (22.5 mg/kg). Fluoride concentration was highest in leafy vegetable, whereas the lowest was in wheat grains. Finally, estimated daily intake (EDI) and hazard index (HI) were calculated for local consumers of different age group, where it was found that young people (4-15 years) are at the highest risk of fluorosis. This study is relevant for better crop management, like substituting crops with woody plants, flowers, and people awareness.

Keywords: fluoride, bioaccumulation, health risk, water

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Authors: Muhammed Auwal Umar, M. Saleh

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The main purpose of this research is to examine the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation (innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, and proactiveness) and SME's growth in Bauchi metropolis. The study is quantitative in nature using a cross-sectional survey. The population of the study was 364 SMEs. Using simple random sampling, 183 questionnaires were personally distributed, out of which 165 (90%) were found valid for the analysis. Kregcie and Morgan (1970) table was used to determine the sample size. Pearson correlation was used to test the hypotheses. The analysis was conducted with the aid of IBM Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20. The results established that innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, and proactiveness have significant positive relationship with SME's growth. It is therefore recommended that SMEs’ owners/managers should change their attitude by changing their product and mode of operation in line with customer demand, being proactive ahead of other competitors in trying a better way of doing things, and taking calculated risks in anticipation of high return in order for their businesses to survive and grow.

Keywords: SMEs growth, innovativeness, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness

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Authors: Almutazballlah Qablan, Jihan M. Muhaidat, Bana Abu Rajab

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Background: Acne vulgaris is the most common skin condition that general practitioners and dermatologists encounter. It represents a chronic inflammatory disease affecting the pilosebaceous unit. Although acne vulgaris is not a life-threatening condition, it has a considerable psychological impact on the affected person. Acne patients have poor body image, low self-esteem, social isolation, and restricted activities. As part of the emotional impact, increased levels of anxiety, anger, depression, and frustration have also been observed in acne patients. (1) In this study, we want to assess the association between two modifiable risk factors; BMI and smoking, regarding acne vulgaris. Methods: A case-control study was conducted at King Abdullah University Hospital in Irbid, north Jordan in 2019/2020. A total number of 163 Acne cases were collected and interviewed by the author; on the other hand, there were 162 control cases. Anthropometric measures for Acne patients and control individuals were taken, and BMI was calculated. Both groups were asked about smoking habits. Data on subjects between 14 and 33 years of age were extracted. The characteristics of people who reported acne were compared with those with no acne using univariate and multivariate analysis. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) was relied on to analyze the collected data. The crosstabs methods (chi-square) and odd ratios were relied on to test the study hypothesis. Results: Cigarette smoking was highly associated with no-acne, with an odds ratio of 0.4 (95% CI: 0.2–0.9), P-value = 0.018. BMI and waterpipe smoking were not significantly associated with acne in the multivariate analysis. Conclusion: Cigarette smoking was found to be protective from Acne. No significant relation between BMI nor waterpipe smoking and the development of Acne Vulgaris.

Keywords: acne, BMI, smoking, case-control

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

Abstract:

Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Abdul Jamil Nazari, Shigeo Honma

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This paper evaluates and compares the effect of fractional flow curves on the heavy oil and light oil recoveries in a petroleum reservoir. Fingering of flowing water is one of the serious problems of the oil displacement by water and another problem is the estimation of the amount of recover oil from a petroleum reservoir. To address these problems, the fractional flow of heavy oil and light oil are investigated. The fractional flow approach treats the multi-phases flow rate as a total mixed fluid and then describes the individual phases as fractional of the total flow. Laboratory experiments are implemented for two different types of oils, heavy oil, and light oil, to experimentally obtain relative permeability and fractional flow curves. Application of the light oil fractional curve, which exhibits a regular S-shape, to the water flooding method showed that a large amount of mobile oil in the reservoir is displaced by water injection. In contrast, the fractional flow curve of heavy oil does not display an S-shape because of its high viscosity. Although the advance of the injected waterfront is faster than in light oil reservoirs, a significant amount of mobile oil remains behind the waterfront.

Keywords: fractional flow, relative permeability, oil recovery, water fingering

Procedia PDF Downloads 299

Authors: Hasan Basri Jumin, Henni Rosneti, Agusnimar

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Crude palm oil liquid sludge sewage was treated to maize with 400 cc/plant could be increased mean relative growth rates, net assimilation rate, leaf area and dry weight of seed. There are indicated that 400 cc / plant treated to maize significantly increase the average of mean relative growth rates into 0.32 g.day-1. Net assimilation rates increase from 13.5 mg.m-2.day-1 into 34.5 mg.m-2.day-1, leaf area at 50 days after planting increase from 1419 cm-2 into 2458 cm-2 and dry weight of seed from 38 g per plant into 43 g per plant. Crude palm oil liquid sludge waste chemical analysis indicated that, there are no exceed threshold content of dangerous metals and biology effects. Cadmium content as heavy metal is lower than threshold of human healthy tolerance. Therefore, it has no syndrome effect to human health. Biological oxygen demands and chemical oxygen demands as indicators for micro-organism activities, there are under the threshold of human healthy tolerance.

Keywords: crude-palm-oil, fertilizer, liquid-sludge, maize, pollutant, waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 563

Authors: Atiya Mahmood, Mubasharah Hanif, Ghazala Butt, Mehwish Zahoor Ahmed

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Acne vulgaris affects millions of adults.Despite extensive research, its food related etiology remains elusive. Objective:To assess the correlation between dietary intake and acne through a case-control survey of 300,15-25 year old respondents living in Pakistan. 50 acne patients and 150 age-and ethnicity-matched controls completed a questionnaire.Cases and controls were separated using SPSS-22 and univariate analysis was performed using the chi-square test. p value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. We used adjusted odds ratios to assess the strength of associations with 95% confidence intervals. Most of the respondents were females(91.3%).Most(48.7%)acne patients were 20-25 yearsold.Acne severity was mild in 50%,moderate in 34%,severe in14%and very severe in 2%.Frequent low-fat foods(p<0.001)(OR=3.22),fat intake(p=0.03)(OR = 1.629),sweet snacks i.e. biscuits and candies etc. (p=0.013) (OR=1.9254), soft drinks(p= 0.045)(OR= 1.9091),butter(p<0.001) (OR= 1.8185),dairy products(p=0.043)(OR=0.624),salty foods(p= 0.011)(OR=1.961),chocolate (p=0.028)(OR=1.669), were associated with increased acne risk.No association was found with consumption of fried foods, desserts, fruit juices, raw fruit, fast food, vegetables, cheese, soy products, salt, and corn. Increased butter and chocolate consumption were linked to more severe forms of acne(p=0.049 and p=0.005 respectively).Most respondents (n=218) considered themselves to have healthy eating habits, indicating they were not educated about the nutritional aspects of acne treatment.Certain food item intake was significantly higher in acne patients to give an association between the two. Further studies must be conducted to develop a causative relationship. Nutrition aawareness is critical to reduce acne.

Keywords: correlation between dietary components and acne, dietary components, acne, nutrition

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Authors: Mahadev Bhise, Nabanita Majumder

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Recent studies have found association between air pollutants and mortality, particularly how concentration of air pollutant explains under-five mortality across the countries. Thus, the present study evaluates the relationship between Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and under-five mortality, while controlling other well-being determinant of Under-five mortality in 100 countries using panel unbalanced cross sectional data. We have used PCSE and GMM model for the period 1990-2011 to meet our objectives. Our findings suggest that, the positive relationship between lagged periods of carbon dioxide and under-five mortality; the percentage of rural population with access of improved water is negatively associated with under-five mortality, while in case of urban population with access of improved water, is positively related to under-five mortality. Access of sanitation facility, food production index, GDP per capita, and concentration of urban population have significant negative impact on under-five mortality. Further, total fertility rate is significantly associated (positive) with under-five mortality which indicates relative change in fertility is related to relative change in under-five mortality.

Keywords: arbon dioxide (CO2), under-five mortality (0q5), gross domestic product (GDP), urban population, food production, panel corrected standard errors (PCSE), generalized method of moments (GMM)

Procedia PDF Downloads 308