Search results for: double seasonal ARIMA

Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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Authors: Ahmad Alsheikh Kaddour

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Herbal medicine has been a long-standing phenomenon in Arab countries since ancient times because of its breadth and moderate temperament. Therefore, it possesses a vast natural and economic wealth of medicinal and aromatic herbs. This prompted ancient Egyptians and Arabs to discover and exploit them. The economic importance of the plant is not only from medicinal uses; it is a plant of high economic value for its various uses, especially in food, cosmetic and aromatic industries. It is also an ornamental plant and soil stabilization. The main objective of this research is to study the chemical changes that occur in the plant during the growth period, as well as the production of plant buds, which were previously considered unwanted plants. The research was carried out in the period 2021-2022 in the valley of Al-Shaflah (common caper), located in Qumhana village, 7 km north of Hama Governorate, Syria. The results of the research showed a change in the percentage of chemical components in the plant parts. The ratio of protein content and the percentage of fatty substances in fruits and the ratio of oil in the seeds until the period of harvesting of these plant parts improved, but the percentage of essential oils decreased with the progress of the plant growth, while the Glycosides content where improved with the plant aging. The production of buds is small, with dimensions as 0.5×0.5 cm, which is preferred for commercial markets, harvested every 2-3 days in quantities ranging from 0.4 to 0.5 kg in one cut/shrubs with 3 years’ age as average for the years 2021-2022. The monthly production of a shrub is between 4-5 kg per month. The productive period is 4 months approximately. This means that the seasonal production of one plant is 16-20 kg and the production of 16-20 tons per year with a plant density of 1,000 shrubs per hectare, which is the optimum rate of cultivation in the unit of mass, given the price of a kg of these buds is equivalent to 1 US $; however, this means that the annual output value of the locally produced hectare ranges from 16,000 US $ to 20,000 US $ for farmers. The results showed that it is possible to transform the cultivation of this plant from traditional random to typical areas cultivation, with a plant density of 1,000-1,100 plants per hectare according to the type of soil to obtain production of medicinal and nutritious buds, as well as, the need to pay attention to this national wealth and invest in the optimal manner, which leads to the acquisition of hard currency through export to support the national income.

Keywords: common caper, medicinal plants, propagation, medical, economic importance

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Authors: Laura Lamas Abraira

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Large-scale Chinese immigration in Spain emerged in the 80's. Engaged in their own businesses or working for other Chinese migrants with long schedules, young couples had to choose between contracting or transnationalising the care labour as they were unable to combine productive and reproductive tasks. In most cases, they decided to transnationalize the care labour embodied on grandparents or children migratory paths. Either the grandparents go to Spain to take care of their grandchildren or the kids were left behind or sent to China after being born in Spain in order to be raised with their extended family members. Very little is known about how the people who have been raised in a transnational context relates their own experience and agency as care managers within the family care cycle. In order to fill this gap, this paper aims to inquire into these transnationally-reared Chinese young adults’ narratives about their own experience and expectations (past, present and future) by adopting care circulation and care cycle approach within life course framework. Drawing upon a qualitative study resulting from a multi-sited ethnography (Spain-China), we argue that young adults raised in transnational context build their narratives as a result of an otherness process related to their parents and an essentialization of their Chinese roots to use selectively among different contexts. In doing so, these family narratives constitute a part of their social identity that interact with other dimensions such as the ethnic one. We suggest when building their parent's otherness they also build their sameness among pairs, as members of the same club, marked by transnational care on a double time basis: the practices of their parents as wrong past, and their own as an amendable future.

Keywords: Chinese families, narratives, transnational care, young adults

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Authors: M. A. Abdel-Wahed, Nayera Elmorsi Hassan, Safaa Shafik Imam, Ola G. El-Farghali, Khadija M. Alian

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Low-birth-weight is a challenging public health problem. Aim: to clarify role of zinc on enhancing catch-up growth of low-birth-weight and find out a proposed relationship between zinc effect on growth and the main growth hormone mediator, IGF-1. Methods: Study is a double-blind-randomized-placebo-controlled trial conducted on low-birth-weight-neonates delivered at Ain Shams University Maternity Hospital. It comprised 200 Low-birth-weight-neonates selected from those admitted to NICU. Neonates were randomly allocated into one of the following two groups: group I: low-birth-weight; AGA or SGA on oral zinc therapy at dose of 10 mg/day; group II: Low-birth-weight; AGA or SGA on placebo. Anthropometric measurements were taken including birth weight, length; head, waist, chest, mid-upper arm circumferences, triceps and sub-scapular skin-fold thicknesses. Results: At 12-month-old follow-up visit, mean weight, length; head (HC), waist, chest, mid-upper arm circumferences and triceps; also, infant’s proportions had values ≥ 10th percentile for weight, length and HC were significantly higher among infants of group I when compared to those of group II. Oral zinc therapy was associated with 24.88%, 25.98% and 19.6% higher proportion of values ≥ 10th percentile regarding weight, length and HC at 12-month-old visit, respectively [NNT = 4, 4 and 5, respectively]. Median IGF-1 levels measured at 6 months were significantly higher in group I compared to group II (median (range): 90 (19 – 130) ng/ml vs. 74 (21 – 130) ng/ml, respectively, p=0.023). Conclusion: Oral zinc therapy in low-birth-weight neonates was associated with significantly more catch-up growth at 12-months-old and significantly higher serum IGF-1 at 6-month-old.

Keywords: low-birth-weight, zinc, catch-up growth, neonates

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Authors: Isabella Schwartz, Ori Safran, Naama Karniel, Michal Abel, Adina Berko, Martin Seyres, Tamir Tsoar, Sigal Portnoy

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Virtual Reality allows to manipulate the patient’s perception, thereby providing a motivational addition to real-time biofeedback exercises. We aimed to test the effect of manipulated virtual kinematic intervention on measures of active and passive Range of Motion (ROM), pain, and disability level in individuals with traumatic stiff shoulder. In a double-blinded study, patients with stiff shoulder following proximal humerus fracture and non-operative treatment were randomly divided into a non-manipulated feedback group (NM-group; N=6) and a manipulated feedback group (M-group; N=7). The shoulder ROM, pain, and the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand (DASH) scores were tested at baseline and after the 6 sessions, during which the subjects performed shoulder flexion and abduction in front of a graphic visualization of the shoulder angle. The biofeedback provided to the NM-group was the actual shoulder angle and the feedback provided to the M-group was manipulated so that 10° were constantly subtracted from the actual angle detected by the motion capture system. The M-group showed greater improvement in the active flexion ROM, with median and interquartile range of 197.1 (140.5-425.0) compared to 142.5 (139.1-151.3) for the NM-group (p=.046). Also, the M-group showed greater improvement in the DASH scores, with median and interquartile range of 67.7 (52.8-86.2) compared to 89.7 (83.8-98.3) for the NM-group (p=.022). Manipulated intervention is beneficial in individuals with traumatic stiff shoulder and should be further tested for other populations with orthopedic injuries.

Keywords: virtual reality, biofeedback, shoulder pain, range of motion

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Authors: Nounamo Nguedie Yann Harold

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The factors behind the debt have been the subject of several studies in the literature. Pioneering studies based on the 'double deficit' approach linked indebtedness to the imbalance between savings and investment, the budget deficit and the current account deficit. Most studies on identifying factors that may stimulate or reduce the level of external public debt agree that the following variables are important explanatory variables in leveraging debt: the budget deficit, trade opening, current account and exchange rate, import, export, interest rate, term variation exchange rate, economic growth rate and debt service, capital flight, and over-indebtedness. Few studies addressed the impact of political factors on the level of external debt. In general, however, the IMF's stabilization programs in developing countries following the debt crisis have resulted in economic recession and the advent of political crises that have resulted in changes in governments. In this sense, political institutions are recognised as factors of accumulation of external debt in most developing countries. This paper assesses the role of political factors on the external debt level of African countries in the Franc Zone over the period 1985-2016. Data used come from World Bank and ICRG. Using a logit in panel, the results show that the more a country is politically stable, the lower the external debt compared to the gross domestic product. Political stability multiplies 1.18% the chances of being in the sustainable debt zone. For example, countries with good political institutions experience less severe external debt burdens than countries with bad political institutions.

Keywords: African countries, external debt, Franc Zone, political factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: K. Dhanalakshmi, N. Deepak, E. Manikandan, S. Kanagaraj, M. Sulthan Ariff Rahman, P. Chilambarasan C. Abhimanyu, C. A. Akaash Emmanuel Raj, V. R. Sanal Kumar

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In this paper using a validated double precision, density-based implicit standard k-ε model, the detailed 2D and 3D numerical studies have been carried out to examine the external flow choking at wing-in-ground (WIG) effect craft. The CFD code is calibrated using the exact solution based on the Sanal flow choking condition for adiabatic flows. We observed that at the identical WIG effect conditions the numerically predicted 2D boundary layer blockage is significantly higher than the 3D case and as a result, the airfoil exhibited an early external flow choking than the corresponding wing, which is corroborated with the exact solution. We concluded that, in lieu of the conventional 2D numerical simulation, it is invariably beneficial to go for a realistic 3D simulation of the wing in ground effect, which is analogous and would have the aspects of a real-time parametric flow. We inferred that under the identical flying conditions the chances of external flow choking at WIG effect is higher for conventional aircraft than an aircraft facilitating a divergent channel effect at the bottom surface of the fuselage as proposed herein. We concluded that the fuselage and wings integrated geometry optimization can improve the overall aerodynamic performance of WIG craft. This study is a pointer to the designers and/or pilots for perceiving the zone of danger a priori due to the anticipated external flow choking at WIG effect craft for safe flying at the close proximity of the terrain and the dynamic surface of the marine.

Keywords: boundary layer blockage, chord dominated ground effect, external flow choking, WIG effect

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Authors: Ranojoy Dutta, Adam Barker

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Multifamily residential buildings are increasingly being built with large glazed areas to provide tenants with greater daylight and outdoor views. However, traditional double-glazed window assemblies can lead to significant thermal discomfort from high radiant temperatures as well as increased cooling energy use to address solar gains. Dynamic glazing provides an effective solution by actively controlling solar transmission to maintain indoor thermal comfort, without compromising the visual connection to outdoors. This study uses thermal simulations across three Canadian cities (Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal) to verify if dynamic glazing along with operable windows and ceiling fans can maintain the indoor operative temperature of a prototype southwest facing high-rise apartment unit within the ASHRAE 55 adaptive comfort range for a majority of the year, without any mechanical cooling. Since this study proposes the use of natural ventilation for cooling and the typical building life cycle is 30-40 years, the typical weather files have been modified based on accepted global warming projections for increased air temperatures by 2050. Results for the prototype apartment confirm that thermal discomfort with dynamic glazing occurs only for less than 0.7% of the year. However, in the baseline scenario with low-E glass there are up to 7% annual hours of discomfort despite natural ventilation with operable windows and improved air movement with ceiling fans.

Keywords: electrochromic glazing, multi-family housing, passive cooling, thermal comfort, natural ventilation

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Authors: Olaide O. Wahab, Lukman O. Olasunkanmi, Krishna K. Govender, Penny P. Govender

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The economic and environmental challenges associated with azo disperse dyes applications are due to poor aqueous solubility and low degradation tendency which stems from low chemical reactivity. Poor aqueous solubility property of this group of dyes necessitates the use of dispersing agents which increase operational costs and also release toxic chemical components into the environment, while their low degradation tendency is due to the high stability of the azo functional group (-N=N-) in their chemical structures. To address these problems, this study investigated theoretically the effects of some polar substituents on the aqueous solubility and reactivity properties of disperse yellow (DY) 119 dye with a view to theoretically develop new azo disperse dyes with improved solubility in water and higher degradation tendency in the environment using DMol³ computational code. All calculations were carried out using the Becke and Perdew version of Volsko-Wilk-Nusair (VWN-BP) level of density functional theory in conjunction with double numerical basis set containing polarization function (DNP). The aqueous solubility determination was achieved with conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) in conjunction with known empirical solubility model, while the reactivity was predicted using frontier molecular orbital calculations. Most of the new derivatives studied showed evidence of higher aqueous solubility and degradation tendency compared to the parent dye. We conclude that these derivatives are promising alternative dyes for more economic and environmental benign dyeing practice and therefore recommend them for synthesis.

Keywords: aqueous solubility, azo disperse dye, degradation, disperse yellow 119, DMol³, reactivity

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Authors: Waseem Al-Talalwah

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The superior vesical artery usually arises directly from the anterior division of the internal iliac artery. It may arise from the umbilical artery as three or four branches to supply the upper and middle parts of bladder. Current study focuses on the different origins of the superior vesical artery to provide a sufficient data for surgeons to disease iatrogenic fault. The superior vesical artery arises directly from the anterior division of the internal iliac artery in 24.5% whereas it arises indirectly as from umbilical artery in 83.7%. Further, it may arise from any branch of the anterior division as from the utrine and obturator arteries in 6.1% and in 6.3% respectively. It also shares the origin of the internal pudendal and inferior glutyeal artery as it arises from the gluteopudendal trunk in 4.1%. The superior vesical artery arises as a single, double, triple and quadruple in 69.4%, 20.4%, 8.2% and 2% respectively. In case of cystectomy for bladder cancer, surgeons have to be aware of the origin variability of superior vesical artery to prevent post-surgical complication such as intra-pelvic bleeding. Also, the as intra-pelvic bleeding has to be expected in case of hysterectomy therefore a great caution of the vesical branches arising from uterine artery has to be considered. In case of aneurysm resection of inferior gluteal artery arising from the gluteopudendal trunk, the surgeons have to be careful of the vascular supply of urinary bladder coming from above and below this common trunk as from superior and inferior vesical arteries respectively. Therefore, present study increases the awareness of clinical significance of superior vesical artery origin for surgeons to minimise the iatroginc errors.

Keywords: superior vesical artery, anterior division, internal iliac, internal pudendal, inferior glutyeal, intra-pelvic bleeding, hysterectomy, cystectomy

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Authors: Yamina Boukari, Nashiru Billa, Andrew Morris, Stephen Doughty, Kevin Shakesheff

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Poly (lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) is a synthetic polymer that can be used in bone tissue engineering with the aim of creating a scaffold in order to support the growth of cells. The formation of microspheres from this polymer is an attractive strategy that would allow for the development of an injectable system, hence avoiding invasive surgical procedures. The aim of this study was to develop a microsphere delivery system for use as an injectable scaffold in bone tissue engineering and evaluate various formulation parameters on its properties. Porous and lysozyme-containing PLGA microspheres were prepared using the double emulsion solvent evaporation method from various molecular weights (MW). Scaffolds were formed by sintering to contain 1 -3mg of lysozyme per gram of scaffold. The mechanical and physical properties of the scaffolds were assessed along with the release of lysozyme, which was used as a model protein. The MW of PLGA was found to have an influence on microsphere size during fabrication, with increased MW leading to an increased microsphere diameter. An inversely proportional relationship was displayed between PLGA MW and mechanical strength of formed scaffolds across loadings for low, intermediate and high MW respectively. Lysozyme release from both microspheres and formed scaffolds showed an initial burst release phase, with both microspheres and scaffolds fabricated using high MW PLGA showing the lowest protein release. Following the initial burst phase, the profiles for each MW followed a similar slow release over 30 days. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate that lysozyme can be successfully incorporated into porous PLGA scaffolds and released over 30 days in vitro, and that varying the MW of the PLGA can be used as a method of altering the physical properties of the resulting scaffolds.

Keywords: bone, microspheres, PLGA, tissue engineering

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Authors: Nelson S. Andres, Robert O. Aguilar, Mar O. Tapia, Meeko C. Masangcap, John Denver Catapang, Greg C. Mallari

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This study focuses on exploring the possibility of using solar PV as an alternative for generating electricity to electrify the AGT System installed in BPSU Main Campus instead of using the power grid. The output of this study gives BPSU the option to invest on solar PV system to pro-actively respond to one of UN’s Sustainable Development Goals of having reliable, sustainable and modern energy sources to reduce energy pollution and climate change impact in the long run. Thus, this study covers the technical as well as the financial studies, which BPSU can also be used to outsource funding from different government agencies. For this study, the electrical design and requirements of the on-going DOST AGT system project are carefully considered. In the proposed design, the AGT station has installed with a rechargeable battery system where the energy harnessed by the solar PV panels installed on the rooftop of the station/NCEA building shall be directed to. The solar energy is then directly supplied to the electric double-layer capacitors (EDLC's) batteries and thus transmitted to other types of equipment in need. When the AGT is not in use, the harnessed energy may be used by NCEA building, thus, lessening the energy consumption of the building from the grid. The use of solar PV system with EDLC is compared with the use of an electric grid for the purpose of electrifying the AGT or the NCEA building (when AGT is not in use). This is to figure how much solar energy are accumulated by the solar PV to accommodate the need for coaches’ motors, lighting, air-conditioning units, door sensor, panel display, etc. The proposed PV Solar design, as well as the data regarding the charging and discharging of batteries and the power consumption of all AGT components, are simulated for optimization, analysis and validation through the use of PVSyst software.

Keywords: AGT, Solar PV, railway, EDLC

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Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio, M. Ragosta

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The effects of extreme heat events are increasing in recent years. Humans are forced to adjust themselves to adverse climatic conditions. The impact of weather on human health has become public health significance, especially in light of climate change and rising frequency of devasting weather events (e.g., heat waves and floods). The interest of scientific community is widely known. In particular, the associations between temperature and mortality are well studied. Weather conditions are natural factors that affect the human organism. Recent works show that the temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by geographic area and season. These results suggest heat warning criteria should consider local thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatology as well as the seasonal timing of a forecasted heat wave. Therefore, it is very important the problem called ‘local warming’. This is preventable with adequate warning tools and effective emergency planning. Since climate change has the potential to increase the frequency of these types of events, improved heat warning systems are urgently needed. This would require a better knowledge of the full impact of extreme heat on morbidity and mortality. The majority of researchers who analyze the associations between human health and weather variables, investigate the effect of air temperature and bioclimatic indices. These indices combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed and are very important to determine the human thermal comfort. Health impact studies of weather events showed that the prevention is an essential element to dramatically reduce the impact of heat waves. The summer Italian of 2012 was characterized with high average temperatures (con un +2.3°C in reference to the period 1971-2000), enough to be considered as the second hottest summer since 1800. Italy was the first among countries in Europe which adopted tools for to predict these phenomena with 72 hours in advance (Heat Health Watch Warning System - HHWWS). Furthermore, in Italy heat alert criteria relies on the different Indexes, for example Apparent temperature, Scharlau index, Thermohygrometric Index, etc. This study examines the importance of developing public health policies that protect the most vulnerable people (such as the elderly) to extreme temperatures, highlighting the factors that confer susceptibility.

Keywords: heat waves, Italy, local warming, temperature

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Authors: Amina Farooq, Nauman Zafar Butt

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This paper is about methods and tools for counting particles of interest, such as cells. A microfluidic system with interconnected electronics on a flexible substrate, inlet-outlet ports and interface schemes, sensitive and selective detection of cells specificity, and processing of cell counting at polymer interfaces in a microscale biosensor for use in the detection of target biological and non-biological cells. The development of fluidic channels, planar fluidic contact ports, integrated metal electrodes on a flexible substrate for impedance measurements, and a surface modification plasma treatment as an intermediate bonding layer are all part of the fabrication process. Magnetron DC sputtering is used to deposit a double metal layer (Ti/Pt) over the polypropylene film. Using a photoresist layer, specified and etched zones are established. Small fluid volumes, a reduced detection region, and electrical impedance measurements over a range of frequencies for cell counts improve detection sensitivity and specificity. The procedure involves continuous flow of fluid samples that contain particles of interest through the microfluidic channels, counting all types of particles in a portion of the sample using the electrical differential counter to generate a bipolar pulse for each passing cell—calculating the total number of particles of interest originally in the fluid sample by using MATLAB program and signal processing. It's indeed potential to develop a robust and economical kit for cell counting in whole-blood samples using these methods and similar devices.

Keywords: impedance, biochip, cell counting, microfluidics

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Authors: Sabyasachi Mukhopadhyay, Joseph Ogutu, Gundula Bartzke, Hans-Peter Piepho

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Rainfall is a critical component of climate governing vegetation growth and production, forage availability and quality for herbivores. However, reliable rainfall measurements are not always available, making it necessary to predict rainfall values for particular locations through time. Predicting rainfall in space and time can be a complex and challenging task, especially where the rain gauge network is sparse and measurements are not recorded consistently for all rain gauges, leading to many missing values. Here, we develop a flexible Bayesian model for predicting rainfall in space and time and apply it to Narok County, situated in southwestern Kenya, using data collected at 23 rain gauges from 1965 to 2015. Narok County encompasses the Maasai Mara ecosystem, the northern-most section of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem, famous for its diverse and abundant large mammal populations and spectacular migration of enormous herds of wildebeest, zebra and Thomson's gazelle. The model incorporates geographical and meteorological predictor variables, including elevation, distance to Lake Victoria and minimum temperature. We assess the efficiency of the model by comparing it empirically with the established Gaussian process, Kriging, simple linear and Bayesian linear models. We use the model to predict total monthly rainfall and its standard error for all 5 * 5 km grid cells in Narok County. Using the Monte Carlo integration method, we estimate seasonal and annual rainfall and their standard errors for 29 sub-regions in Narok. Finally, we use the predicted rainfall to predict large herbivore biomass in the Maasai Mara ecosystem on a 5 * 5 km grid for both the wet and dry seasons. We show that herbivore biomass increases with rainfall in both seasons. The model can handle data from a sparse network of observations with many missing values and performs at least as well as or better than four established and widely used models, on the Narok data set. The model produces rainfall predictions consistent with expectation and in good agreement with the blended station and satellite rainfall values. The predictions are precise enough for most practical purposes. The model is very general and applicable to other variables besides rainfall.

Keywords: non-stationary covariance function, gaussian process, ungulate biomass, MCMC, maasai mara ecosystem

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Rajni Kant Panik

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The aim of the present study was to develop and evaluate mupirocin loaded nanoparticle incorporated into hydrogel as an infected wound healer. Incorporated Nanoparticle in hydrogel provides a barrier that effectively prevents the contamination of the wound and further progression of infection to deeper tissues. Hydrogel creates moist healing environment on wound space with good fluid absorbance. Nanoparticles were prepared by double emulsion solvent evaporation method using different ratios of PLGA polymer and the hydrogels was developed using sodium alginate and gelatin. Further prepared nanoparticles were then incorporated into the hydrogels. The formulations were characterized by FT-IR and DSC for drug and polymer compatibility and surface morphology was studied by TEM. Nanoparticle hydrogel were evaluated for their size, shape, encapsulation efficiency and for in vitro studies. The FT-IR and DSC confirmed the absence of any drug polymer interaction. The average size of Nanoparticle was found to be in range of 208.21-412.33 nm and shape was found to be spherical. The maximum encapsulation efficiency was found to be 69.03%. The in vitro release profile of Nanoparticle incorporated hydrogel formulation was found to give sustained release of drug. Antimicrobial activity testing confirmed that encapsulated drug preserve its effectiveness. The stability study confirmed that the formulation prepared were stable. Present study complements our finding that mupirocin loaded Nanoparticle incorporated into hydrogel has the potential to be an effective and safe novel addition for the release of mupirocin in sustained manner, which may be a better option for the management of wound. These finding also supports the progression of antibiotic via hydrogel delivery system is a novel topical dosage form for the management of wound.

Keywords: hydrogel, nanoparticle, PLGA, wound healing

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Authors: Ashutosh Verma, Satyendra Mittal

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Numerous geosynthetic reinforced soil (GRS) abutment failures over the years have been attributed to the loss of strength at the facing-reinforcement interface due to seasonal thermal expansion/contraction of the bridge deck. This causes excessive settlement below the bridge seat, causing bridge bumps along the approach road which reduces the design life of any abutment. Before designers while choosing the type of facing, a broad range of facing configurations are undoubtedly available. Generally speaking, these configurations can be divided into three groups: modular (panels/block), continuous, and full height rigid (FHR). The purpose of the current study is to use 1g physical model tests under serviceable cyclic lateral displacements to experimentally investigate the behaviour of these three facing classifications. To simulate field behaviour, a field instrumented GRS abutment prototype was modeled into a N scaled down 1g physical model (N = 5) with adjustable facing arrangements to represent these three facing classifications. For cyclic lateral displacement (d/H) of top facing at loading rate of 1mm/min, the peak earth pressure coefficient (K) on the facing and vertical settlement of the footing (s/B) at 25, 50, 75 and 100 cycles have been measured. For a constant footing offset of x/H = 0.1, three forms of cyclic displacements have been performed to simulate active condition (CA), passive condition (CP), and active-passive condition (CAP). The findings showed that when reinforcements are integrated into the wall along with presence of gravel gabions i.e. FHR design, a rather substantial earth pressure occurs over the facing. Despite this, the FHR facing's continuous nature works in conjunction with the reinforcements' membrane resilience to reduce footing settlement. On the other hand, the pressure over the wall is released upon lateral excitation by the relative displacement between the panels in modular facing reducing the connection strength at the interface and leading to greater settlements below footing. On the contrary, continuous facing do not exhibit relative displacement along the depth of facing rather fails through rotation about the base, which extends the zone of active failure in the backfill leading to large depressions in the backfill region around the bridge seat. Conservatively, FHR facing shows relatively stable responses under lateral cyclic excitations as compared to modular or continuous type of abutment facing.

Keywords: GRS abutments, 1g physical model, full height rigid, cyclic lateral displacement

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Authors: Mirka Januszkiewicz

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The Regional Municipality of Durham is the upper level of a two-tier municipal and regional structure comprised of eight lower-tier municipalities. With a population of 655,000 in both urban and rural settings, the Region is approximately 2,537 square kilometers neighboring the City of Toronto, Ontario Canada to the east. The Region has been focused on diverting waste from disposal since the development of its Long Term Waste Management Strategy Plan for 2000-2020. With a 54 percent solid waste diversion rate, the focus now is on achieving 70 percent diversion on the path to zero waste using local waste management options whenever feasible. The Region has an Integrated Waste Management System that consists of a weekly curbside collection of recyclable printed paper and packaging and source separated organics; a seasonal collection of leaf and yard waste; a bi-weekly collection of residual garbage; and twice annual collection of intact, sealed household batteries. The Region also maintains three Waste Management Facilities for residential drop-off of household hazardous waste, polystyrene, construction and demolition debris and electronics. Special collection events are scheduled in the spring, summer and fall months for reusable items, household hazardous waste, and electronics. The Region is in the final commissioning stages of an energy from the waste facility for residual waste disposal that will recover energy from non-recyclable wastes. This facility is state of the art and is equipped for installation of carbon capture technology in the future. Despite all of these diversion programs and efforts, there is still room for improvement. Recent residential waste studies revealed that over 50% of the residual waste placed at the curb that is destined for incineration could be recycled. To move towards a zero waste community, the Region is looking to more advanced technologies for extracting the maximum recycling value from residential waste. Plans are underway to develop a pre-sort facility to remove organics and recyclables from the residual waste stream, including the growing multi-residential sector. Organics would then be treated anaerobically to generate biogas and fertilizer products for beneficial use within the Region. This project could increase the Region’s diversion rate beyond 70 percent and enhance the Region’s climate change mitigation goals. Zero waste is an ambitious goal in a changing regulatory and economic environment. Decision makers must be willing to consider new and emerging technologies and embrace change to succeed.

Keywords: municipal waste, residential, waste diversion, zero waste

Procedia PDF Downloads 202

Authors: Masoumeh Khailghi Sikaroudi, Mohsen Masoodi, Fazad Shidfar, Meghdad Sedaghat

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Background: The hypertonicity of internal anal sphincter resting pressure is one of the main reasons for chronic anal fissures. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of oral administration of L-arginine on anal fissure symptom improvement by relaxation of the internal anal sphincter. Method: Seventy-six chronic anal fissure patients (age: 18-65 years) took part in this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial study from February 2019 to October 2020 at Rasoul-e-Akram Hospital, Tehran, Iran. Participants were allocated into treatment (L-arginine) or placebo groups. They took a 1000 mg capsule three times a day for one month and were followed up at the end of the first and third months after receiving the intervention. Clinical symptoms, anal sphincter resting pressure, and quality of life (QoL) were completed at baseline and the end of the study. Result: The analysis of data was shown significant improvement in bleeding, fissure size, and pain within each group; however, this effect was more seen in the arginine group compared to the control group at the end of the study (P-values<0.001). Following that, a significant increase in QoL was seen just in patients who were treated with arginine (P-value=0.006). Also, the comparison of anal pressures to baseline and between groups at the end of the study showed a significant reduction in sphincter pressure in treated patients (P-value<0.001, =0.049; respectively). Conclusion: Oral administration of 3000 mg L-arginine can heal chronic anal fissures by reducing anal internal sphincter pressure with fewer side effects. However, a long-term study with more follow-up is recommended.

Keywords: L-arginine, anal fissure, sphincter pressure, clinical symptoms, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 46

Authors: Benhaddadi M., Déry D.

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Electric motors are the single biggest consumer of electricity, and the consumption will have more than to double by 2050. Meanwhile, the existing technologies offer the potential to reduce the motor energy demand by up to 30 %, whereas the know-how to realise energy savings is not extensively applied. That is why the authors first conducted a detailed analysis of the regulation of the electric motor market in North America To illustrate the colossal energy savings potential permitted by the VFD, the authors have equipped experimental setup, based on centrifugal pump, simultaneously equipped with regulating throttle valves and variable frequency drive VFD. The obtained experimental results for 1.5 HP motor pump are extended to another motor powers, as centrifugal pumps that are different in power may have similar operational characteristics if they are located in a similar kind of process, permitting the simulations for 5 HP and 100 HP motors. According to the obtained results, VFDs tend to be most cost-effective when fitted to larger motor pumps, in addition to higher duty cycle of the motor and relative time operating at lower than full load. The energy saving permitted by the VFD use is huge, and the payback period for drive investment is short. Nonetheless, it’s important to highlight that there is no general rule of thumb that can be used to obtain the impact of the relative time operating at lower than full load. Indeed, in terms of energy-saving differences, 50 % flow regulation is tremendously better than 75 % regulation, but a slightly enhanced relative to 25 %. Two main distinct reasons can explain this somewhat not anticipated results: the characteristics of the process and the drop in efficiency when motor is operating at low speed.

Keywords: motor, drive, energy efficiency, centrifugal pump

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: O.O. Ehinmowo, A.I. Fatuase, D.F. Oke

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Nigeria is endowed with resources that could boost the economy as well as generate income and provide jobs to the teaming populace. One of the keys of attaining this is by making the environment conducive for the entrepreneurs to excel in their respective enterprises so that more income could be accrued to the entrepreneurs. This study therefore examines income inequality among selected entrepreneurs in Ondo State, Nigeria using primary data. A multistage sampling technique was used to select 200 respondents for the study with the aid of structured questionnaire and personal interview. The data collected were subjected to descriptive statistics, Lorenz curve, Gini coefficient and Double - Log regression model. Results revealed that majority of the entrepreneurs (63%) were males and 90% were married with an average age of 44 years. About 40% of the respondents spent at most 12 years in school with 81% of the respondents had 4-6 members per household, while hair dressing (43.5%) and fashion designing (31.5%) were the most common enterprises among the sampled respondents. The findings also showed that majority of the entrepreneurs in hairdressing, fashion designing and laundry service earned below N200,000 per annum while the majority of those in restaurant and food vending earned between N400,000 – N600,000 followed by the entrepreneurs in pure water enterprise where majority earned N800,000 and above per annum. The result of the Gini coefficient (0.58) indicated that there was presence of inequality among the entrepreneurs which was also affirmed by the Lorenz curve. The Regression results showed that gender, household size and number of employees significantly affected the income of the entrepreneurs in the study area. Therefore, more female households should be encouraged into entrepreneurial businesses and government should give incentive cum conductive environment that could bridge the disparity in the income of the entrepreneurs in their various enterprises.

Keywords: entrepreneurs, Gini coefficient, income inequality, Lorenz curve

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Authors: Sony Baral, Bijendra Basnyat, Kalyan Gauli

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Forests are depleted throughout the world in the 1990s, and since then, various efforts have been undertaken for the restoration of the forest. A government of Nepal promoted various community based forest management in which leasehold forestry was the one introduce in 1990s, aiming to restore degraded forests land. However, few attempts have been made to systematically evaluate its cost effectiveness. Hence the study assesses the cost effectiveness of leasehold forestry intervention in the mid-hill district of Nepal following the cost and benefit analysis approach. The study followed quasi-experimental design and collected costs and benefits information from 320 leasehold forestry groups (with intervention) and 154 comparison groups (without intervention) through household survey, forest inventory and then validated with the stakeholders’ consultative workshop. The study found that both the benefits and costs from intervention outweighed without situation. The members of leasehold forestry groups were generating multiple benefits from the forests, such as firewood, grasses, fodder, and fruits, whereas those from comparison groups were mostly getting a single benefit. Likewise, extent of soil carbon is high in leasehold forests. Average expense per unit area is high in intervention sites due to high government investment for capacity building. Nevertheless, positive net present value and internal rate of return was observed for both situations. However, net present value from intervention, i.e., leasehold forestry, is almost double compared to comparison sites, revealing that community are getting higher benefits from restoration. The study concludes that leasehold forestry is a highly cost-effective intervention that contributes towards forest restoration that brings multiple benefits to rural poor.

Keywords: cost effectiveness, economic efficiency, intervention, restoration, leasehold forestry, nepal

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: R. Sivasamy, G. Paulraj, S. Kalaimani, N.Thillaigovindan

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For profitable businesses, queues are double-edged swords and hence the pain of long wait times in a queue often frustrates customers. This paper suggests a technical way of reducing the pain of lines through a Poisson M/M1, M2/2 queueing system operated by two heterogeneous servers with an objective of minimising the mean sojourn time of customers served under the queue discipline ‘First Come First Served with an ‘m’ policy, i.e. FCFS-m policy’. Arrivals to the system form a Poisson process of rate λ and are served by two exponential servers. The service times of successive customers at server ‘j’ are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables and each of it is exponentially distributed with rate parameter μj (j=1, 2). The primary condition for implementing the queue discipline ‘FCFS-m policy’ on these service rates μj (j=1, 2) is that either (m+1) µ2 > µ1> m µ2 or (m+1) µ1 > µ2> m µ1 must be satisfied. Further waiting customers prefer the server-1 whenever it becomes available for service, and the server-2 should be installed if and only if the queue length exceeds the value ‘m’ as a threshold. Steady-state results on queue length and waiting time distributions have been obtained. A simple way of tracing the optimal service rate μ*2 of the server-2 is illustrated in a specific numerical exercise to equalize the average queue length cost with that of the service cost. Assuming that the server-1 has to dynamically adjust the service rates as μ1 during the system size is strictly less than T=(m+2) while μ2=0, and as μ1 +μ2 where μ2>0 if the system size is more than or equal to T, corresponding steady state results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been deduced from those of M/M1,M2/2 queues. To conclude this investigation has a viable application, results of M/M1+M2/1 queues have been used in processing of those waiting messages into a single computer node and to measure the power consumption by the node.

Keywords: two heterogeneous servers, M/M1, M2/2 queue, service cost and queue length cost, M/M1+M2/1 queue

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Poojitha Vemula

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Understanding how we use image manipulation to communicate through an audience’s perceptions and conceive visual intelligence. With the use of many software and high-end skills, designers have developed a third eye to combine two different visuals and create the desired image by using photoshop and other software skills. The purpose of visual intelligence is to convey a message to the targeted audience. For instance, the images of models are retouched on their skin to make it more convincing and draw attention from the audience. There are many ways of manipulating an image, such as double exposure, retouching photography inks or paint airbrushing and piecing photos together, or enhancing the brightness and contrast. To understand visual intelligence, a questionnaire survey as well as research was conducted on how image manipulation is used by both the audience and the designers. This depends on the message that needs to be conveyed by the brands. For instance, Fair & Lovely, a brightening cream for ladies use a lot of retouching and effects to show the dramatic change the cream takes effect on dark or dusky faces. Thus the designer’s role is to use their third eye to incorporate the message into visuals. The research and questionnaire survey concludes the perceptions and manipulations used in visual communication. However this is all to make an effortless communication between the designer and the audience by using the skills of the designer and the features provided by the software. The objective of visual intelligence is to covet the message of the brands that advertise their products or services by using visuals through softwares. Conveying a message through visual intelligence requires an audiences perceptions and understanding from the visuals created by the artists or designers. Visual intelligence determines how we use our technical skills to retouch and manipulate an image for a better understanding to convey the message to the targeted audience. This also bridges the communication between the brand and the audience.

Keywords: graphic design, visual communication, convey messages, photoshop, image manipulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: M. Bučas, A. Skersonas, E. Ivanauskas, J. Lesutienė, N. Nika, G. Srėbalienė, E. Tiškus, J. Gintauskas, A.Šaškov, G. Martin

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Submerged vegetation enhances heterogeneity of sublittoral habitats; therefore, macrophyte stands are essential elements of aquatic ecosystems to maintain a diverse fish fauna. Fish-habitat relations have been extensively studied in streams and coastal waters, but in lakes and estuaries are still underestimated. The aim of this study is to assess temporal (diurnal and seasonal) patterns of fish juvenile assemblages associated with common submerged macrophyte habitats, which have significantly spread during the recent decade in the upper littoral part of the Curonian Lagoon. The assessment was performed by means of an upgraded pop-up net approach resulting in much precise sampling versus other techniques. The optimal number of samples (i.e., pop-up nets) required to cover>80% of the total number of fish species depended on the time of the day in both study sites: at least 7and 9 nets in the evening (18-24 pm) in the Southern and Northern study sites, respectively. In total, 14 fish species were recorded, where perch and roach dominated (respectively 48% and 24%). From multivariate analysis, water salinity and seasonality (temperature or sampling month) were primary factors determining fish assemblage composition. The southern littoral area, less affected by brackish water conditions, hosted a higher number of species (13) than in the Northern site (8). In the latter site, brackish water tolerant species (three-spined and nine-spined sticklebacks, spiny loach, roach, and round goby) were more abundant than in the Southern site. Perch and ruffe dominated in the Southern site. Spiny loach and nine-spined stickleback were more frequent in September, while ruffe, perch, and roach occurred more in July. The diel dynamics of the common species such as perch, roach, and ruffe followed the general pattern, but it was species specific and depended on the study site, habitat, and month. The species composition between macrophyte habitats did not significantly differ; however, it differed from the results obtained in 2005 at both study sites indicating the importance of expanded charophyte stands during the last decade in the littoral zone.

Keywords: diel dynamics, charophytes, pondweeds, herbivorous and benthivorous fishes, littoral, nursery habitat, shelter

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: Sy, Melecio Jr

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The decision to adopt vertical integration (VI) is firm-specific, but there is a common practice among businesses in an industry to maximize the massive potential benefits of VI. This study aims to determine VI adoption in the restaurant industry in Davao City. Using a two-step sampling process, the study used a validated survey questionnaire among 264 restaurant owners and managers randomly selected and geographically classified. It is a quantitative study where the data were subjected to a structural equation model (SEM). The results revealed that VI is present but limited to procurement, production, restaurant services, and online marketing. Raw materials were outsourced while delivery to customers through third-party delivery services. VI slowly increased over ten years except for online marketing, which has grown significantly in a few years. The endogenous and exogenous variables were correlated and established the linear regression model. The SEM's best fit model revealed that strategic motives (SMOT) and market factors (MFAC) influenced VI adoption while MFAC is the best predictor. Favorable market factors may lead restaurants to adopt VI. It is, thus, recommended for restaurants to institutionalize strategic management, quantify the impact of double marginalization in future studies as a reason for VI and conduct this study during the new normal to see the influence of business efficiencies and firm economies on VI adoption.

Keywords: business efficiencies, business management, davao city, firm economies, market factors, philippines, strategic motives, structural equation model, supply chain, vertical integration adoption

Procedia PDF Downloads 52

Authors: Qi Wang

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In the classroom, teachers have been trained to complete the target task within the limited lecture time, meanwhile learners need to receive a lot of new knowledge, however, most of the time the learners come without the proper pre-class preparation to efficiently take in the contents taught in class. Under this circumstance, teachers do have no time to check whether the learners fully understand the content or not, how the learners communicate in the different contexts, until teachers see the results when the learners are tested. In the past decade, the teaching of Chinese has taken a trend. Teaching focuses less on the use of proper grammatical terms/punctuation and is now placing a heavier focus on the materials from real life contexts. As a result, it has become a greater challenge to teachers, as this requires teachers to fully understand/prepare what they teach and explain the content with simple and understandable words to learners. On the other hand, the same challenge also applies to the learners, who come from different countries. As they have to use what they learnt, based on their personal understanding of the material to effectively communicate with others in the classroom, even in the contexts of a day to day communication. To reach this win-win stage, Feynman’s Technique plays a very important role. This practical report presents you how the Feynman’s Technique is applied into Chinese courses, both writing & oral, to motivate the learners to practice more on writing, reading and speaking in the past few years. Part 1, analysis of different teaching styles and different types of learners, to find the most efficient way to both teachers and learners. Part 2, based on the theory of Feynman’s Technique, how to let learners build the knowledge from knowing the name of something to knowing something, via different designed target tasks. Part 3. The outcomes show that Feynman’s Technique is the interaction of learning style and teaching style, the double-edged sword of Teaching & Learning Chinese as a Second Language.

Keywords: Chinese, Feynman’s technique, learners, teachers

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Bezuglov Eduard, Ryland Morgans, Talibov Oleg, Kalinin Evgeny, Butovsky Mikhail, Savin Evgeny, Tzgoev Eduard, Artemii Lazarev, Bekzhan Pirmakhanov, Anthony C. Hackney

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Currently, there is conflicting evidence regarding the efficacy of citrulline for physical performance and post-exercise recovery. Moreover, the vast majority of studies conducted used physically active volunteers from the general population and heterogeneous exercise protocols that are not specific to most sports. A single use of citrulline, regardless of the dose, will not have a significant effect on physical performance and post-exercise recovery in highly trained soccer players performing sport-specific exercises at maximum intensity. To evaluate the effectiveness of a single administration of citrulline at various doses in adult male professional soccer players performing sport-specific exercise at maximum intensity. A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study analyzing eighteen soccer players from the top divisions of several European countries. The participants were randomized into three groups of six and performed a field-based soccer-specific test at 115% VO2max for 18-minutes. Comparative analysis of the cardiovascular system, physical activity, subjective perceived fatigue and post-exercise recovery was conducted. There were no statistically significant differences in more than one analyzed parameter. A single application of 3 to 6 grams of citrulline does not affect physical performance, subjective feeling of fatigue and post-exercise recovery in adult professional soccer players who have performed a sport-specific test. Currently, citrulline cannot be recommended for use as a supplement in adult professional soccer players

Keywords: citrulline, performance, recovery, soccer players

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Bruno Tassin, Robin Treilles, Cleo Stratmann, Minh Trang Nguyen, Sam Azimi, Vincent Rocher, Rachid Dris, Johnny Gasperi

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Microplastics (<5mm) in the environment and in hydro systems is one of the major present environmental issues. Over the last five years a research programme was conducted in order to assess the behavior of microplastics in the Seine river catchment, in a Man-Land-Sea continuum approach. Results show that microplastic concentration varies at the seasonal scale, but also at much smaller scales, during flood events and with tides in the estuary for instance. Moreover, microplastic sampling and characterization issues emerged throughout this work. The Seine river is a 750km long river flowing in Northwestern France. It crosses the Paris megacity (12 millions inhabitants) and reaches the English Channel after a 170 km long estuary. This site is a very relevant one to assess the effect of anthropogenic pollution as the mean river flow is low (mean flow around 350m³/s) while the human presence and activities are very intense. Monthly monitoring of the microplastic concentration took place over a 19-month period and showed significant temporal variations at all sampling stations but no significant upstream-downstream increase, indicating a possible major sink to the sediment. At the scale of a major flood event (winter and spring 2018), microplastic concentration shows an evolution similar to the well-known suspended solids concentration, with an increase during the increase of the flow and a decrease during the decrease of the flow. Assessing the position of the concentration peak in relation to the flow peak was unfortunately impossible. In the estuary, concentrations vary with time in connection with tides movements and in the water column in relation to the salinity and the turbidity. Although major gains of knowledge on the microplastic dynamics in the Seine river have been obtained over the last years, major gaps remain to deal mostly with the interaction with the dynamics of the suspended solids, the selling processes in the water column and the resuspension by navigation or shear stress increase. Moreover, the development of efficient chemical characterization techniques during the 5 year period of this pluriannual research programme led to the improvement of the sampling techniques in order to access smaller microplastics (>10µm) as well as larger but rare ones (>500µm).

Keywords: microplastics, Paris megacity, seine river, suspended solids

Procedia PDF Downloads 178