Search results for: diabetes risk groups

Authors: Ismail Karaca, Ridvan Saracoglu, Omer Soner

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Fuzzy Logic, an advanced method to support decision-making, is used by various scientists in many disciplines. Fuzzy programming is a product of fuzzy logic, fuzzy rules, and implication. In marine science, fuzzy programming for ships is dramatically increasing together with autonomous ship studies. In this paper, a program to support the decision-making process for ship navigation has been designed. The program is produced in fuzzy logic and rules, by taking the marine accidents and expert opinions into account. After the program was designed, the program was tested by 46 ship accidents reported by the Transportation Safety Investigation Center of Turkey. Wind speed, sea condition, visibility, day/night ratio have been used as input data. They have been converted into a risk factor within the Fuzzy Logic Designer application and fuzzy rules set by marine experts. Finally, the expert's meteorological risk factor for each accident is compared with the program's risk factor, and the error rate was calculated. The main objective of this study is to improve the navigational safety of ships, by using the advance decision support model. According to the study result, fuzzy programming is a robust model that supports safe navigation.

Keywords: calculation of risk factor, fuzzy logic, fuzzy programming for ship, safety navigation of ships

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Authors: Hala Demerdash, Ola M. Zanaty, Emad Eldin Arida

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Background: This study investigated the micoRNA expression changes induced by Sevoflurane and Propofol and their effects on liver functions. Patients and methods: The study was designed as randomized controlled study, carried out on 200 adult patients, scheduled for major surgeries under general anesthesia (GA). Patients were randomly divided into four groups; groups SC and PC included chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients where SC group are patients receiving Sevoflurane, and PC group are patients receiving Propofol anesthesia. While S and P groups included non- hepatitis patients; S group are patients receiving Sevoflurane and P group are patients receiving Propofol. Anesthesia in Group S and SC patients was maintained by sevoflurane, while anesthesia in Group P and PC patients was maintained by propofol infusion. Blood samples were analyzed for PT, PTT and liver enzymes. Serum samples were analyzed for microRNA before and after surgery. Results: Results show miRNA-122 and miRNA-21 were absent in serum of S and P groups in pre-operative samples. However, they were expressed in SC and PC groups. In post-operative samples; miRNA-122 revealed an increased expression in all groups; with more exaggerated response in SC group. On the other hand miRNA-21 revealed increased expression in both SC and PC groups; a slight expression in S group with absent expression in P group. There was a post-operative negative correlation between miR-122 and ALT (r=-0.46) in SC group and (r=-0.411) in PC group and positive correlation between ALT and miR-21 (r=0.335) in SC group and (r=0.379) in PC group. The amount of blood loss was positively correlated with miR-122 (r=0.366) in SC group and (r=0.384) in PC group. Conclusion: Propofol anesthesia is safer than Sevoflurane anesthesia in patients with CHC. Sevoflurane and Propofol anesthesia affect miRNA expression in both CHC and non-hepatitis patients.

Keywords: anesthesia, chronic hepatitis C, micoRNA, propofol, sevoflurane

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Authors: Aulia Dwi Nastiti

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A number of studies and reports on terrorism have continuously addressed the role of internet and online activism to support terrorist and extremist groups. In particular, they stress on social media’s usage that generally serves for the terrorist’s propaganda as well as justification of their causes. While those analyses are important to understand how social media is a vital tool for global network terrorism, they are inadequate to explain the online communication patterns that enable terrorism acts. Beyond apparent online narratives, there is a deep cyber sphere where the very vein of terrorism movement lies. That is a hidden space in the internet called ‘darknet’. Recent investigations, particularly in Middle Eastern context, have shed some lights that this invisible space in the internet is fundamental to maintain the terrorist activities. Despite that, limited number of research examines darknet within the issue of terrorist movements in Indonesian context—where the country is considered quite a hotbed for extremist groups. Therefore, this paper attempts to provide an insight of darknet operation in Indonesian cases. By exploring how the darknet is used by the Indonesian-based extremist groups, this paper maps out communication patterns of terrorist groups on the internet which appear as an intermingled network. It shows the usage of internet is differentiated in different level of anonymity for distinctive purposes. This paper further argues that the emerging terrorist communication network calls for a more comprehensive counterterrorism strategy on the Internet.

Keywords: communication pattern, counterterrorism, darknet, extremist groups, terrorism

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Authors: M. Sadeghi, H. Pezeshk, R. Tusserkani, A. Sharifi Zarchi, A. Malekpour, M. Foroughmand, S. Goliaei, M. Totonchi, N. Ansari–Pour

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The role and relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the development of complex diseases such as cancer still remains a controversial issue. Determining the amount of variation explained by these factors needs experimental data and statistical models. These models are nevertheless based on the occurrence and accumulation of random mutational events during stem cell division, thus rendering cancer development a stochastic outcome. We demonstrate that not only individual genome sequencing is uninformative in determining cancer risk, but also assigning a unique genome sequence to any given individual (healthy or affected) is not meaningful. Current whole-genome sequencing approaches are therefore unlikely to realize the promise of personalized medicine. In conclusion, since genome sequence differs from cell to cell and changes over time, it seems that determining the risk factor of complex diseases based on genome sequence is somewhat unrealistic, and therefore, the resulting data are likely to be inherently uninformative.

Keywords: cancer risk, extrinsic factors, genome sequencing, intrinsic factors

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Authors: Iram Batool, Aamer Saeed, Irfan Zia Qureshi, Ayesha Razzaq, Saima Kalsoom

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Heterocyclic compounds analogues and their derivatives have attracted strong interest in medicinal chemistry due to their biological and pharmacological properties. A series of new thiazolopyrimidine carboxylates were conveniently synthesized by one-pot three-component reaction of ethyl acetoacetate, 2-aminothiazole and benzaldehyde substituted with electron-donating and electron-withdrawing groups in order to find some more potent antidiabetic and antibacterial drugs. The structures of synthesized compounds were characterized by elemental analysis, IR, 1H NMR, 13C NMR spectroscopy. An in vitro antidiabetic effect was evaluated in adult male BALB/c mice and antibacterial activities were tested against Micrococcus luteus, Salmonella typhimurium, Bacillus subtilis, Bordetella bronchiseptica and Escherichia coli. Some of the tested compounds proved to possess good to excellent activities more than the reference drugs. An in silico molecular docking was also performed on synthesized compounds. The current study is expected to provide useful insights into the design of antidiabetic and antibacterial drugs and understanding the mechanism by which such drugs interact with RNA and diabetes target and exert their biochemical action.

Keywords: antidiabetic, antibacterial, MOE docking, thiazolopyrimidine

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Authors: S. A. Khan, B. Mishra, O. Sherchan

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Background and Aims: Thyroid disorder is the most common endocrine disorder after diabetes mellitus. Females are more vulnerable to this disease, and old age is an important risk factor. This study was undertaken to investigate the burden of thyroid disorder in Nepalese postmenopausal women. Methods: In the present cross-sectional study, we included 271 post-menopausal women. Three ml of blood was collected following standard protocol after taking the written consent. Serum was separated and analyzed for free T3, free T4, and Thyroid Stimulating Hormone (TSH) by Chemiluminescence Immunoassay (CLIA) method in Snibe Maglumi 1000 analyzer. Data obtained was analyzed in SPSS Version 21. P < 0.05 was set for statistical significant at 95% Confidence Interval (CI). Results: Majority of the participants belong to Janjati (46.5%) ethnicity, followed by Brahmin/Chhetri (41.7%), residing either in urban or suburban locality. Most of them were non-vegetarian, non-smoker, and non-alcoholic. Subjects were divided into hyperthyroid (TSH < 0.3 uIU/ml), hypothyroid (TSH > 4.5 uIU/ml), and euthyroid (TSH=0.3-4.5 uIU/ml) based on TSH value. We reported 10.3% hyperthyroid and 29.2% hypothyroid cases. TSH was significantly correlated with T3 (r=-0.244; p < 0.001) T4 (r=-0.398; p < 0.001); age (r=-0.138; p=0.023) and BMI (r=0.123; p=0.043). Multiple linear regression model for TSH reveals only T3 and T4 were significantly associated with TSH (p < 0.001; p=0.001). Conclusion: To conclude, nearly 39.5% of the postmenopausal women had thyroid disorder. Postmenopausal women are vulnerable to thyroid disorder; therefore, requires regular thyroid monitoring.

Keywords: thyroid stimulating hormone, TSH, T3, T4, thyroid disorder

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Authors: R. Gharari, N. Kojouri, R. Hosseini Aghdam, E. Alibeigi, B. Salmasian

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In this research, the WWER1000/V446 (a PWR Russian type reactor) is chosen as the case study. It is assumed that radioactive materials that release into the environment are more than allowable limit due to a complete failure of the ventilation system (reactor stack). In the following, the HOTSPOT and the RASCAL computational codes have been used and coupled with a developed program using MATLAB software to evaluate Total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and cancer risk according to the BEIR equations for various human organs. In addition, effects of the containment spray system and climate conditions on the TEDE have been investigated. According to the obtained results, there is an inverse correlation between the received dose and the wind speed; the amount of the TEDE for wind speed 2 m/s and is more than wind speed for 14 m/s during the class A of the climate (2.168 and 0.444 mSv, respectively). Also, containment spray system can effect and reduce the amount of the fission products and TEDE. Furthermore, the probability of the cancer risk for women is more than men, and for children is more than adults. In addition, a specific emergency zonal planning is proposed. Results are promising in which the site selection of the WWER1000/V446 were considered safe for the public in this situation.

Keywords: TEDE, total effective dose equivalent, RASCAL and HOTSPOT codes, BEIR equations, cancer risk

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Authors: Tri Wisudawati, Radita Dwi Putera

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The role of human resources is the basic capital in determining the purpose of a business place. Without the role of human resources, activities in the company will not run smoothly. Every business place always has a risk of accidents. The magnitude of the risk that occurs depends on the type of industry, technology, and risk control efforts made. Work-related accidents are accidents that occur due to work or while carrying out work. Welding MSMEs have a fairly high risk to health, safety and the environment both from the side of workers who can cause accidents and from the side of the work environment, which has the potential to become a hazard and risk. Participatory ergonomic intervention can be a feasible and effective approach to reducing exposure to work-related risk factors in developing country industries. Complaints about occupational health and safety experienced by workers in the welding workshop industry should be able to be overcome by implementing an ergonomic intervention approach. The analysis process includes HIRARC analysis, participatory ergonomics analysis, and SEM-PLS analysis. Hierarch analysis is carried out by assessing the level of severity and likelihood, as well as risk control. At the participatory ergonomics analysis stage, it is obtained from the organizational culture and organizational stakeholders. At the SEM-PLS stage, an analysis is carried out to see whether there is a strong relationship between the research variables in order to produce occupational health and safety (K3) and worker productivity in the welding shop better and in accordance with welding safety standards. So that the output of this study is how participatory ergonomics interventions affect working conditions to improve occupational health and safety and the productivity of welding workers.

Keywords: ergonomic partisipatory, health and safety, welding workers, welding safety

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Authors: Tomasz L. Nawrocki

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Due to the growing global interest of investment society in innovative enterprises, as the objective of this research was adopted to examine the investment efficiency in shares of companies with innovative characteristics in the risk-return layout. The research was carried out for companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange taking into various consideration time ranges of investment. Obtained results show that in shorter periods of time, investors buy expectations connected with innovative companies and therefore the efficiency of investment in their shares is relatively high, but in the longer term expectations are revised by companies financial results, which in turn negatively affects the efficiency of investment in their shares.

Keywords: capital market, innovative company, investment strategies, risk and return analysis

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Authors: Shivahari Revathi Venkateswaran

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Segmenting customers plays a significant role in churn prediction. It helps the marketing team with proactive and reactive customer retention. For the reactive retention, the retention team reaches out to customers who already showed intent to disconnect by giving some special offers. When coming to proactive retention, the marketing team uses churn prediction model, which ranks each customer from rank 1 to 100, where 1 being more risk to churn/disconnect (high ranks have high propensity to churn). The churn prediction model is built by using XGBoost model. However, with the churn rank, the marketing team can only reach out to the customers based on their individual ranks. To profile different groups of customers and to frame different marketing strategies for targeted groups of customers are not possible with the churn ranks. For this, the customers must be grouped in different segments based on their profiles, like demographics and other non-controllable attributes. This helps the marketing team to frame different offer groups for the targeted audience and prevent them from disconnecting (proactive retention). For segmentation, machine learning approaches like k-mean clustering will not form unique customer segments that have customers with same attributes. This paper finds an alternate approach to find all the combination of unique segments that can be formed from the user attributes and then finds the segments who have uplift (churn rate higher than the baseline churn rate). For this, search algorithms like fast search and recursive search are used. Further, for each segment, all customers can be targeted using individual churn ranks from the churn prediction model. Finally, a UI (User Interface) is developed for the marketing team to interactively search for the meaningful segments that are formed and target the right set of audience for future marketing campaigns and prevent them from disconnecting.

Keywords: churn prediction modeling, XGBoost model, uplift segments, proactive marketing, search algorithms, retention, k-mean clustering

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Authors: Jeannette Anniés, Panagiotis Michalis, Chrysoula Papathanasiou, Selby Knudsen

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RiskPACC project aims to bring together researchers, practitioners, and first responders from nine European countries following a co-creation approach aiming to develop customised solutions to meet the needs of end-users. The co-creation workshops target to enhance the communication pathways between local civil protection authorities (CPAs) and citizens, in an effort to close the risk perception-action gap (RPAG). The participants in the workshops include a variety of stakeholders, as well as citizens, fostering the dialogue between the groups and supporting citizen participation in disaster risk management (DRM). The co-creation methodology in place implements co-design elements due to the integration of four ICT tools. Such ICT tools include web-based and mobile application technical solutions in different development stages, ranging from formulation and validation of concepts to pilot demonstrations. In total, seven different case studies are foreseen in RiskPACC. The workflow of the workshops is designed to be adaptive to every of the seven case study countries and their cultures’ particular needs. This work aims to provide an overview of the the preparation and the conduction of the workshops in which researchers and practitioners focused on mapping these different needs from the end users. The latter included first responders but also volunteers and citizens who actively participated in the co-creation workshops. The strategies to improve communication between CPAs and citizens themselves differ in the countries, and the modules of the co-creation methodology are adapted in response to such differences. Moreover, the project partners experienced how the structure of such workshops is perceived differently in the seven case studies. Therefore, the co-creation methodology itself is a design method underlying several iterations, which are eventually shaped by cross-cultural collaboration. For example, some case studies applied other modules according to the participatory group recruited. The participants were technical experts, teachers, citizens, first responders, or volunteers, among others. This work aspires to present the divergent approaches of the seven case studies implementing the co-creation methodology proposed, in response to different perceptions of the modules. An analysis of the adaptations and implications will also be provided to assess where the case studies’ objective of improving disaster resilience has been obtained.

Keywords: citizen participation, co-creation, disaster resilience, risk perception, ICT tools

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Zehra Buyuktuncer, Aylin H. Büyükkaragöz, Tuğçe N. Balcı, Nevin Ergun

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Background: Undergoing rigid dietary habits for enhancing athletic performance could lead to eating disorders. High prevalence of eating disorders among female athletes has been already reported. However, the risk of disordered eating among disabled athletes is not known. A better knowledge of the different eating behaviors and their prevalence in disabled athletes would be helpful to understand interactions between eating and health. This study aimed to examine the cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating behaviors in a disabled athlete population. Method: A total of 70 disabled Turkish national athletes (33 female, 37 male) from 5 sport branches (soccer, weight lifting, shooting, table tennis and basketball) were involved in the study. The cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating behaviors were assessed using the revised version of Three Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18 (TFEQ-R18). The questionnaires were conducted by dietitian during the preparation camps of athletes. Body weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured; and body composition was analyzed by bioelectrical impedance analysis method. Results: The TFEQ scales showed a cognitive dietary restraint score of 13.9±4.2, uncontrolled eating score of 17.7±5.8 and emotional eating score of 4.9±2.5. The mean score of total TFEQ-R18 was 36.5±8.62. Neither total TFEQ-R18 score nor subscale scores differed significantly by gender or sport branches (p>0.05, for each). The scores were also similar in BMI groups (n=63; p>0.05). Total TFEQ, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating scores were significantly higher among the athletes with congenital disabilities compared to the scores of the athletes with acquired disabilities (p<0.05, for each). Moreover, the cognitive dietary restraint score was significantly high in athletes who would like to lose weight (p=0.009). Conclusion: Disabled athletes might have a risk of disordered eating. The different eating behaviors among disabled athletes should be assessed using validated tools to develop personalized nutritional strategies for those athletes.

Keywords: disabled athletes, eating behaviour, three-factor eating questionnaire-r18, body composition

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Authors: Sanpachai Huvanandana, Settapong Malisuwan, Soparwan Tongyuak, Prust Pannachet, Anong Phoepueak, Navneet Madan

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Many regions of Thailand are prone to flooding due to tropical climate. A commonly increasing precipitation in this continent results in risk of flooding. Many efforts have been implemented such as drainage control system, multiple dams, and irrigation canals. In order to decide where the drainages, dams, and canal should be appropriately located, the flooding risk area should be determined. This paper is aimed to identify the appropriate features that can be used to classify the flooding risk area in Thailand. Several features have been analyzed and used to classify the area. Non-supervised clustering techniques have been used and the results have been compared with ten years average actual flooding area.

Keywords: flood area clustering, geographical information system, flood features

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: Azza A. Ali, Hebatalla I. Ahmed, Asmaa Abdelaty

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Background: Manganese (Mn) is a naturally occurring element. Exposure to high levels of Mn causes neurotoxic effects and represents an environmental risk factor. Mn neurotoxicity is poorly understood but changing of AChE activity, monoamines and oxidative stress has been established. Bisphenol A (BPA) is a synthetic compound widely used in the production of polycarbonate plastics. There is considerable debate about whether its exposure represents an environmental risk. Caffeine is one of the major contributors to the dietary antioxidants which prevent oxidative damage and may reduce the risk of chronic neurodegenerative diseases. Epigallocatechin-3-gallate is another major component of green tea and has known interactions with caffeine. It also has health-promoting effects in CNS. Objective: To evaluate the potential protective effects of Caffeine and/or EGCG against Mn-induced neurotoxicity either alone or in the presence of BPA in rats. Methods: Seven groups of rats were used and received daily for 5 weeks MnCl2.4H2O (10 mg/kg, IP) except the control group which received saline, corn oil and distilled H2O. Mn was injected either alone or in combination with each of the following: BPA (50 mg/kg, PO), caffeine (10 mg/kg, PO), EGCG (5 mg/kg, IP), caffeine + EGCG and BPA +caffeine +EGCG. All rats were examined in five behavioral tests (grid, bar, swimming, open field and Y- maze tests). Biochemical changes in monoamines, caspase-3, PGE2, GSK-3B, glutamate, acetyl cholinesterase and oxidative parameters, as well as histopathological changes in the brain, were also evaluated for all groups. Results: Mn significantly increased MDA and nitrite content as well as caspase-3, GSK-3B, PGE2 and glutamate levels while significantly decreased TAC and SOD as well as cholinesterase in the striatum. It also decreased DA, NE and 5-HT levels in the striatum and frontal cortex. BPA together with Mn enhanced oxidative stress generation induced by Mn while increased monoamine content that was decreased by Mn in rat striatum. BPA abolished neuronal degeneration induced by Mn in the hippocampus but not in the substantia nigra, striatum and cerebral cortex. Behavioral examinations showed that caffeine and EGCG co-administration had more pronounced protective effect against Mn-induced neurotoxicity than each one alone. EGCG alone or in combination with caffeine prevented neuronal degeneration in the substantia nigra, striatum, hippocampus and cerebral cortex induced by Mn while caffeine alone prevented neuronal degeneration in the substantia nigra and striatum but still showed some nuclear pyknosis in cerebral cortex and hippocampus. The marked protection of caffeine and EGCG co-administration also confirmed by the significant increase in TAC, SOD, ACHE, DA, NE and 5-HT as well as the decrease in MDA, nitrite, caspase-3, PGE2, GSK-3B, the glutamic acid in the striatum. Conclusion: Neuronal degeneration induced by Mn showed some inhibition with BPA exposure despite the enhancement in oxidative stress generation. Co-administration of EGCG and caffeine can protect against neuronal degeneration induced by Mn and improve behavioral deficits associated with its neurotoxicity. The protective effect of EGCG was more pronounced than that of caffeine even with BPA co-exposure.

Keywords: manganese, bisphenol a, caffeine, epigallocatechin-3-gallate, neurotoxicity, behavioral tests, rats

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Authors: Malik SS, Masood N, Mubarik S, Khadim TM

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Introduction: Xeroderma pigmentosum group G (XPG) gene plays a crucial role in the correction of UV-induced DNA damage through nucleotide excision repair pathway. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in XPG gene have been reported to be associated with different cancers. Current case-control study was designed to evaluate the relationship between one of the most frequently found XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism and breast cancer risk. Methodology: A total of 200 individuals were screened for this polymorphism including 100 pathologically confirmed breast cancer cases and age-matched 100 controls. Genotyping was carried out using Tetra amplification-refractory mutation system (ARMS) PCR and results were confirmed by gel electrophoresis. Results: Conditional logistic regression analysis showed significant association between TC genotype (OR: 8.9, CI: 2.0 – 38.7) and increased breast cancer risk. Although homozygous CC genotype was more frequent in patients as compared to controls, but it was statistically non-significant (OR: 3.9, CI: 0.4 – 35.7). Conclusion: In conclusion, XPG (rs1047768 T>C) polymorphism may contribute towards increased risk of breast cancer but other polymorphisms may also be evaluated to elucidate their role in breast cancer.

Keywords: XPG, breast cancer, NER, ARMS-PCR

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Authors: Adeleye O. O., T. M. Obuotor, A. O. Kolawole, I. O. Opowoye, M. I. Olasoju, L. T. Egbeyale, R. A. Ajadi

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This study investigated the effect of Lagenaria breviflora on broiler poultry birds, including its effect on the microbial count of the poultry droppings. A total of 240-day-old broiler chicks were randomly assigned to six groups, with four replicates per group. The first group was the control, while the other four groups were fed water containing 300g/L and 500g/L concentrations of Lagenaria breviflora twice and thrice daily. The microbial load was determined using the plate count method. The results showed that the administration of Lagenaria breviflora in the water of broiler birds significantly improved their growth performance with an average weight gain range of 1.845g - 2.241g. Mortality rate was at 0%. The study also found that Lagenaria breviflora had a significant effect on the microbial count of the poultry droppings with colony count values from 3.5 x 10-7 - 9.9 x10-7CFU/ml, The total coliforms (Escherichia coli, and Salmonella sp.) was obtained as 1 x 10 -5CFU/ml. The reduction in microbial counts of the poultry droppings could be attributed to the antimicrobial properties of Lagenaria breviflora, which contain phytochemicals reported to possess antimicrobial activity. Therefore, the inclusion of Lagenaria breviflora in the diets of broiler poultry could be an effective strategy for improving growth performance and immune function and reducing the microbial load of poultry droppings, which can help to mitigate the risk of disease transmission to humans and other animals.

Keywords: gut microbes, bacterial count, lagenaria breviflora, coliforms

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Authors: Rao Fu, Jie Chen, Shutian Zeng, Yiping Zhuang, Agus Sudjianto

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Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) has proved to be a powerful machine learning tool in image data analysis and generation. In this paper, we propose to use Conditional Generative Adversarial Net (CGAN) to learn and simulate time series data. The conditions include both categorical and continuous variables with different auxiliary information. Our simulation studies show that CGAN has the capability to learn different types of normal and heavy-tailed distributions, as well as dependent structures of different time series. It also has the capability to generate conditional predictive distributions consistent with training data distributions. We also provide an in-depth discussion on the rationale behind GAN and the neural networks as hierarchical splines to establish a clear connection with existing statistical methods of distribution generation. In practice, CGAN has a wide range of applications in market risk and counterparty risk analysis: it can be applied to learn historical data and generate scenarios for the calculation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), and it can also predict the movement of the market risk factors. We present a real data analysis including a backtesting to demonstrate that CGAN can outperform Historical Simulation (HS), a popular method in market risk analysis to calculate VaR. CGAN can also be applied in economic time series modeling and forecasting. In this regard, we have included an example of hypothetical shock analysis for economic models and the generation of potential CCAR scenarios by CGAN at the end of the paper.

Keywords: conditional generative adversarial net, market and credit risk management, neural network, time series

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Authors: Ndiaye Mouhamadou, Seck Abdoulaye, Ndiaye Babacar, Diallo Thierno Abdoulaye, Diop Abdou, Seck Mame Cheikh, Diongue Khadim, Badiane Aida Sadikh, Diallo Mamadou Alpha, Kouedvidjin Ekoué, Ndiaye Daouda

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Background: Toxoplasmosis is a parasite disease that presents high rates of gestational and congenital infection worldwide and is therefore considered a public health problem and a neglected disease. The aim of this study was to determine the seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis in pregnant women referred to the medical biology laboratory of the Pasteur Institute of Dakar (Senegal) between January 2014 and December 2019. Methodology: This was a cross-sectional, descriptive, retrospective study of 10892 blood samples from pregnant women aged 16 to 46 years. The Architect toxo IgG/IgM from Abbot Laboratories, which is a chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA), was used for the quantitative determination of antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii in human serum. Results: In total, over a period from January 2014 to December 2019, 10892 requests for toxoplasmosis serology in pregnant women were included. The age of the patients included in our series ranged from 16 to 46 years. The mean age was 31.2 ± 5.72 years. The overall seroprevalence of T. gondii in pregnant women was estimated to be 28.9% [28.0-29.7]. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, after adjustment for a covariate such as a study period, pregnant women aged 36-46 years were more likely to carry IgG antibodies to T. gondii than pregnant women younger than 36 years. Conclusion: T. gondii seroprevalence was significantly higher in pregnant women older than 36 years, leaving younger women more susceptible to primary T. gondii infection and their babies to congenital toxoplasmosis. There will be a need to increase awareness of the risk factors for toxoplasmosis and its different modes of transmission in these high-risk groups, but this should be supported by epidemiologic studies of the distribution of risk factors for toxoplasmosis in pregnant women and women of childbearing age.

Keywords: toxoplasmosis, pregnancy, seroprevalence, Senegal

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Authors: Brandon Knopp, Matthew Harris

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Purpose: Tip-apex distance (TAD) has long been discussed as a metric for determining risk of failure in the fixation of peritrochanteric fractures. TAD measurements over 25 millimeters (mm) have been associated with higher rates of screw cut out and other complications in the first several months after surgery. However, there is limited evidence for the efficacy of this measurement in predicting the long-term risk of negative outcomes following hip fixation surgery. The purpose of our study was to investigate risk factors including TAD for hospital readmission, loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications within 1 year after hip fixation surgery. Methods: A retrospective review of proximal hip fractures treated with single screw intramedullary devices between 2016 and 2020 was performed at a 327-bed regional medical center. Patients included had a postoperative follow-up of at least 12 months or surgery-related complications developing within that time. Results: 44 of the 67 patients in this study met the inclusion criteria with adequate follow-up post-surgery. There was a total of 10 males (22.7%) and 34 females (77.3%) meeting inclusion criteria with a mean age of 82.1 (± 12.3) at the time of surgery. The average TAD in our study population was 19.57mm and the average 1-year readmission rate was 15.9%. 3 out of 6 patients (50%) with a TAD > 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications. In contrast, 3 out of 38 patients (7.9%) with a TAD < 25mm were readmitted within one year due to surgery-related complications (p=0.0254). Individual TAD measurements, averaging 22.05mm in patients readmitted within 1 year of surgery and 19.18mm in patients not readmitted within 1 year of surgery, were not significantly different between the two groups (p=0.2113). Conclusions: Our data indicate a significant improvement in hospital readmission rates up to one year after hip fixation surgery in patients with a TAD < 25mm with a decrease in readmissions of over 40% (50% vs 7.9%). This result builds upon past investigations by extending the follow-up time to 1 year after surgery and utilizing hospital readmissions as a metric for surgical success. With the well-documented physical and financial costs of hospital readmission after hip surgery, our study highlights a reduction of TAD < 25mm as an effective method of improving patient outcomes and reducing financial costs to patients and medical institutions. No relationship was found between TAD measurements and secondary outcomes, including loss of pre-injury ambulation and development of complications.

Keywords: hip fractures, hip reductions, readmission rates, open reduction internal fixation

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Authors: Kwi Young Kang

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Objective: To determine the association between inflammatory and structural lesions on sacroiliac joint (SIJ) MRI and BMD and to identify risk factors for low BMD in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA). Methods: Seventy-six patients who fulfilled the ASAS axSpA criteria were enrolled. All underwent SIJ MRI and BMD measurement at the lumbar spine, femoral neck, and total hip. Inflammatory and structural lesions on SIJ MRI were scored. Laboratory tests and assessment of radiographic and disease activity were performed at the time of MRI. The association between SIJ MRI findings and BMD was evaluated. Results: Among the 76 patients, 14 (18%) had low BMD. Patients with low BMD showed significantly higher bone marrow edema (BME) and deep BME scores on MRI than those with normal BMD (p<0.047 and 0.007, respectively). Inflammatory lesions on SIJ MRI correlated with BMD at the femoral neck and total hip. Multivariate analysis identified the presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP, and sacroiliitis on X-ray as risk factors for low BMD (OR: 5.6, 14.6, and 2.5, respectively). Conclusion: The presence of deep BME on SIJ MRI, increased CRP levels, and severity of sacroiliitis on X-ray were independent risk factors for low BMD.

Keywords: axial spondyloarthritis, sacroiliac joint MRI, bone mineral density, sacroiliitis

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Authors: Fatemeh Keshavarz

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Background: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is one of the most common autoimmune diseases, often leading to joint damage and physical disability. This study aimed to investigate the relationship of serum levels of interleukin 17 and anti-CCP factor with disease severity in RA patients. Materials and Methods: Fifty-four patients with RA confirmed by clinical and laboratory criteria were recruited. A 5 ml venous blood sample was taken from every patient, its serum was separated. Based on clinical data and severity of symptoms, patients were classified into three groups of those with mild, moderate, and severe symptoms. Serum levels of IL-17 and anti-CCP in all samples were measured using ELISA. Results: Analysis of IL-17 serum levels in different groups showed that its amount was higher in the group with mild clinical symptoms than in other groups. Comparison of IL-17 serum levels between mild and moderate disease severity groups showed a statistically significant relationship. There was also a positive linear relationship between anti-CCP and serum IL-17 levels in different groups of the disease, and serum IL-17 levels were inversely related to the duration of exposure to the disease. Conclusion: Higher IL-17 serum levels in patients with mild symptom severity confirm that this highly specific marker is involved in the pathogenesis of RA and may be effective in initiating patients’ clinical symptoms.

Keywords: IL-17, anti-CCP, rheumatoid arthritis, autoimmune

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Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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Authors: Madhusmita Dehingia, Supriyo Sen, Bhuwan Bhaskar, Tulsi Joishy, Mojibur R. Khan

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Human gut microbes and their metabolites are important for maintaining homeostasis in the gut and are responsible for many metabolic and immune mediated diseases. In the present study, we determined the profiles of the gut metabolites of five different ethnic groups (Bodo, Tai-Phake, Karbi, Tea tribe and Tai-Aiton) of Assam. Fecal metabolite profiling of the 39 individuals belonging to the ethnic groups was carried out using Gas chromatography – Mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and comparison was performed among the tribes for common and unique metabolites produced within their gut. Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) of the metabolites suggested that the individuals grouped according to their ethnicity. Among the 66 abundant metabolites, 12 metabolites were found to be common among the five ethnic groups. Additionally, ethnicity wise some unique metabolites were also detected. For example, the tea tribe of Assam contained the tea components, Aniline and Benzoate more in their gut in comparison to others. Metabolites of microbial origin were also correlated with the already published metagenomic data of the same ethnic group and functional analysis were carried out based on human metabolome database.

Keywords: ethnicity, gut microbiota, GC-MS, metabolites

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Authors: Omar Moafaq Saleh Aljanabi, Noradiva Hamzah, Ruhanita Maelah

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In today’s challenging global economy, which is driven by information and knowledge, risk management is undergoing a great change, as organizations shift from traditional and compartmental risk management to an enterprise-wide approach. Enterprise risk management (ERM), which aims at increasing the sustainability of an organization and achieving competitive advantage, is gaining global attention and fast becoming an essential concern in all industries. Furthermore, in order to be effective, ERM should be managed by managers with high-level skills and knowledge. Despite the importance of the knowledge embedded in, there remains a paucity of evidence concerning how human capital could influence the organization’s ERM. Responses from 116 public listed companies (PLCs) on the main market of Bursa Malaysia were analyzed using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). This study found that there is a significant association between ERM and organizational performance. The results also indicate that human capital has a positive moderating effect on the relationship between ERM and performance. The study contributes to the ERM literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between ERM, human capital, and organizational performance. Findings from this study also provide guidelines for managers, policy makers, and the regulatory bodies, to evaluate the ERM practices in PLCs.

Keywords: enterprise risk management, human capital, organizational performance, Malaysian public listed companies

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Authors: Muhammad Qamar Masood, Syed Abbas Raza, Umar Yousaf Raja, Imran Hassan, Bilal Afzal, Muhammad Aleem Zahir, Atika Shaheer

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Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major burden among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) with 1 in 3 reported to have CVD. Therefore, understanding real-world clinical characteristics and prescribing patterns could help in better care. Objective: The CONVERGE (Cardiovascular Outcomes and Value in the Real world with GLP-1RAs) study characterized demographics and medication usage patterns in T2D intensified (add-on to metformin) overall population. The data were further divided into subgroups {dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is), sulfonylureas (SUs), insulins, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2is)}, according to the latest prescribed antidiabetic agent (ADA) in India/Pakistan/Thailand. Here, we report findings from Pakistan. Methods: A multi-center retrospective study utilized data from medical records between 13-Sep-2008 (post-market approval of GLP-1RAs) and 31-Dec-2017 in adults (≥18-year-old). The data for this study were collected from 05 centers / institutes located in major cities of Pakistan, including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, and Multan. These centers included National Hospital, Aga Khan University Hospital, Diabetes Endocrine Clinic Lahore, Shifa International Hospital, Mukhtar A Sheikh Hospital Multan. Data were collected at start of medical record and at 6 or 12-months prior to baseline based on variable type; analyzed descriptively. Results: Overall, 1,010 patients were eligible. At baseline, overall mean age (SD) was 51.6 (11.3) years, T2D duration was 2.4 (2.6) years, HbA1c was 8.3% (1.9) and 35% received ≥1CVD medications in the past 1-year (before baseline). Most frequently prescribed ADAs post-metformin were DPP-4is and SUs (~63%). Only 6.5% received GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is were not available in Pakistan during the study period. Overall, it took a mean of 4.4 years and 5 years to initiate GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is, respectively. In comparison to other subgroups, more patients from GLP-1RAs received ≥3 types of ADA (58%), ≥1 CVD medication (64%) and had higher body mass index (37kg/m2). Conclusions: Utilization of GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is was low, took longer time to initiate and not before trying multiple ADAs. This may be due to lack of evidence for CV benefits for these agents during the study period. The planned phase 2 of the CONVERGE study can provide more insights into utilization and barriers to prescribe GLP-1RAs and SGLT-2is post 2018 in Pakistan.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, GLP-1RA, treatment intensification, cardiovascular disease

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Authors: Ehsan A. Yahia, Ayman E. El-Sharkawey, Magda M. Bayoumi

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Background: Wound dressings perform a crucial role in cutaneous wound management due to their ability to protect wounds and promote dermal and epidermal tissue regeneration. Aim: To evaluate the effectiveness of using hydrogel/nano silver-based dressing vs. traditional dressing on diabetic foot wound healing. Methods: Sixty patients with type-2 diabetes hospitalized for diabetic foot wound treatment were recruited from selected Surgical departments. A prospective randomized control study was carried. Results: The results showed that the percentage of a reduction rate of the ulcer by the third week of the treatment in the hydrogel/nano silver-based dressing group was higher (15.11%) than in the traditional wound dressing group (33.44%). Moreover, the mean ulcer size "sq mm" in the hydrogel/nano silver-based dressing group recognized a faster healing rate (15.11±7.89) and considerably lesser in comparison to the traditional in the third week (21.65±8.4). Conclusion: The hydrogel/nanosilver-based dressing showed better results than traditional dressing in managing diabetic ulcer foot.

Keywords: diabetes, wound care, diabetic foot, wound dressing, hydrogel nanosilver

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Authors: Peter David Reiss

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The concept of the psychosis prodrome has allowed for the identification of adolescent and young adult patients who have a significantly elevated risk of developing schizophrenia spectrum disorders. A number of different interventions have been tested in order to prevent or delay progression of symptoms. To date, there has been no consistent meta-analytical evidence to support efficacy of antipsychotic treatment for patients in the prodromal state, and their use remains therefore inconclusive. Although antipsychotics may manage symptoms transiently, they have not been found to prevent or delay onset of psychotic disorders. Furthermore, pharmacological intervention in high-risk individuals remains controversial, because of the antipsychotic side effect profile in a population in which only about 20 to 35 percent will eventually convert to psychosis over a two-year period, with even after two years conversion rates not exceeding 30 to 40 percent. This general estimate is additionally problematic, in that it ignores the fact that there is significant variation in individual risk among clinical high-risk cases. The current lack of reliable tests for at-risk patients makes it difficult to justify individual treatment decisions. Preventive treatment should ideally be dictated by an individual’s risk while minimizing potentially harmful medication exposure. This requires more accurate predictive assessments by using valid and accessible prognostic markers. The following will compare prediction and risk modification potential of behavioral biomarkers such as disturbances of basic sense of self and emotion awareness, neurocognitive biomarkers such as attention, working and declarative memory, and neurophysiological biomarkers such as glutamatergic abnormalities and NMDA receptor dysfunction. Identification of robust biomarkers could therefore not only provide more reliable means of psychosis prediction, but also help test and develop new clinical interventions targeted at the prodromal state.

Keywords: at-risk mental state, biomarkers, glutamatergic system, NMDA receptor, psychosis prodrome, schizophrenia

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Authors: Marc Angelo C. Balon, Maxine Joy A. Yongoyong

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Female masturbation has been an age-old controversy. In fact, it is not widely talked about specifically in the Philippines since the Filipino culture still preserves the space for conservativeness. Although, considering the numerous and emerging studies on female masturbation, this study will focus on the perspectives of secular and non-secular male groups with regard to female masturbation. The objectives of this study is to identify the perceptions of these male groups and their taking on considering women who masturbate as their sexual partner, as a sexual object, and as a life partner and lastly, to have a comparative analysis of the perceptions of these male groups drawing out their sense of meaning on the masturbation of women. The researchers made use of purposive sampling technique and interview guide questionnaire. The secular male group were psychology students while the non-secular male group was drawn from a Catholic Church seminary in Tagaytay City, Cavite. Results showed that the secular male group had scientific perspectives such as exploring the genitals, contradicting moral perspectives on masturbation as a regular practice, while the non-secular male groups had theological perspectives in accordance with the fundamental moral theology, moral perspectives and perspectives on masturbation as a regular practice. Moreover, men who came from the non-secular group highly believe that masturbation is immoral. Otherwise, men who came from the secular group noted that masturbation is primary physiological need.

Keywords: secular, non-secular, masturbation, comparative analysis

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Authors: S. Valarmathi, P. B. Harathi, R. Sridhar, S. Balasubramanian

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Machine learning tools in medical diagnosis is increasing due to the improved effectiveness of classification and recognition systems to help medical experts in diagnosing breast cancer. In this study, ID3 chooses the splitting attribute with the highest gain in information, where gain is defined as the difference between before the split versus after the split. It is applied for age, location, taluk, stage, year, period, martial status, treatment, heredity, sex, and habitat against Very Serious (VS), Very Serious Moderate (VSM), Serious (S) and Not Serious (NS) to calculate the gain of information. The ranked histogram gives the gain of each field for the breast cancer data. The doctors use TNM staging which will decide the risk level of the breast cancer and play an important decision making field in fuzzy logic for perception based measurement. Spatial risk area (taluk) of the breast cancer is calculated. Result clearly states that Coimbatore (North and South) was found to be risk region to the breast cancer than other areas at 20% criteria. Weighted value of taluk was compared with criterion value and integrated with Map Object to visualize the results. ID3 algorithm shows the high breast cancer risk regions in the study area. The study has outlined, discussed and resolved the algorithms, techniques / methods adopted through soft computing methodology like ID3 algorithm for prognostic decision making in the seriousness of the breast cancer.

Keywords: ID3 algorithm, breast cancer, fuzzy logic, MATLAB

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Authors: Marcelo Dias Carvalho, Leticia Ishikawa

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Supply Chain Risk Management refers to a set of strategies used by companies to avoid supply chain disruption caused by damage at production facilities, natural disasters, capacity issues, inventory problems, incorrect forecasts, and delays. Many companies use the techniques of the Toyota Production System, which in a way goes against a better management of supply chain risks. This paper studies key events in some multinationals to analyze the trade-off between the best supply chain risk management techniques and management policies designed to create lean enterprises. The result of a good balance of these actions is the reduction of losses, increased customer trust in the company and better preparedness to face the general risks of a supply chain.

Keywords: just in time, lean manufacturing, supply chain disruptions, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 336