Search results for: spatially random sampling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4408

Search results for: spatially random sampling

3208 Intrusion Detection in Cloud Computing Using Machine Learning

Authors: Faiza Babur Khan, Sohail Asghar

Abstract:

With an emergence of distributed environment, cloud computing is proving to be the most stimulating computing paradigm shift in computer technology, resulting in spectacular expansion in IT industry. Many companies have augmented their technical infrastructure by adopting cloud resource sharing architecture. Cloud computing has opened doors to unlimited opportunities from application to platform availability, expandable storage and provision of computing environment. However, from a security viewpoint, an added risk level is introduced from clouds, weakening the protection mechanisms, and hardening the availability of privacy, data security and on demand service. Issues of trust, confidentiality, and integrity are elevated due to multitenant resource sharing architecture of cloud. Trust or reliability of cloud refers to its capability of providing the needed services precisely and unfailingly. Confidentiality is the ability of the architecture to ensure authorization of the relevant party to access its private data. It also guarantees integrity to protect the data from being fabricated by an unauthorized user. So in order to assure provision of secured cloud, a roadmap or model is obligatory to analyze a security problem, design mitigation strategies, and evaluate solutions. The aim of the paper is twofold; first to enlighten the factors which make cloud security critical along with alleviation strategies and secondly to propose an intrusion detection model that identifies the attackers in a preventive way using machine learning Random Forest classifier with an accuracy of 99.8%. This model uses less number of features. A comparison with other classifiers is also presented.

Keywords: cloud security, threats, machine learning, random forest, classification

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3207 Customer Churn Prediction by Using Four Machine Learning Algorithms Integrating Features Selection and Normalization in the Telecom Sector

Authors: Alanoud Moraya Aldalan, Abdulaziz Almaleh

Abstract:

A crucial component of maintaining a customer-oriented business as in the telecom industry is understanding the reasons and factors that lead to customer churn. Competition between telecom companies has greatly increased in recent years. It has become more important to understand customers’ needs in this strong market of telecom industries, especially for those who are looking to turn over their service providers. So, predictive churn is now a mandatory requirement for retaining those customers. Machine learning can be utilized to accomplish this. Churn Prediction has become a very important topic in terms of machine learning classification in the telecommunications industry. Understanding the factors of customer churn and how they behave is very important to building an effective churn prediction model. This paper aims to predict churn and identify factors of customers’ churn based on their past service usage history. Aiming at this objective, the study makes use of feature selection, normalization, and feature engineering. Then, this study compared the performance of four different machine learning algorithms on the Orange dataset: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Decision Tree, and Gradient Boosting. Evaluation of the performance was conducted by using the F1 score and ROC-AUC. Comparing the results of this study with existing models has proven to produce better results. The results showed the Gradients Boosting with feature selection technique outperformed in this study by achieving a 99% F1-score and 99% AUC, and all other experiments achieved good results as well.

Keywords: machine learning, gradient boosting, logistic regression, churn, random forest, decision tree, ROC, AUC, F1-score

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3206 Model-Driven and Data-Driven Approaches for Crop Yield Prediction: Analysis and Comparison

Authors: Xiangtuo Chen, Paul-Henry Cournéde

Abstract:

Crop yield prediction is a paramount issue in agriculture. The main idea of this paper is to find out efficient way to predict the yield of corn based meteorological records. The prediction models used in this paper can be classified into model-driven approaches and data-driven approaches, according to the different modeling methodologies. The model-driven approaches are based on crop mechanistic modeling. They describe crop growth in interaction with their environment as dynamical systems. But the calibration process of the dynamic system comes up with much difficulty, because it turns out to be a multidimensional non-convex optimization problem. An original contribution of this paper is to propose a statistical methodology, Multi-Scenarios Parameters Estimation (MSPE), for the parametrization of potentially complex mechanistic models from a new type of datasets (climatic data, final yield in many situations). It is tested with CORNFLO, a crop model for maize growth. On the other hand, the data-driven approach for yield prediction is free of the complex biophysical process. But it has some strict requirements about the dataset. A second contribution of the paper is the comparison of these model-driven methods with classical data-driven methods. For this purpose, we consider two classes of regression methods, methods derived from linear regression (Ridge and Lasso Regression, Principal Components Regression or Partial Least Squares Regression) and machine learning methods (Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbor, Artificial Neural Network and SVM regression). The dataset consists of 720 records of corn yield at county scale provided by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the associated climatic data. A 5-folds cross-validation process and two accuracy metrics: root mean square error of prediction(RMSEP), mean absolute error of prediction(MAEP) were used to evaluate the crop prediction capacity. The results show that among the data-driven approaches, Random Forest is the most robust and generally achieves the best prediction error (MAEP 4.27%). It also outperforms our model-driven approach (MAEP 6.11%). However, the method to calibrate the mechanistic model from dataset easy to access offers several side-perspectives. The mechanistic model can potentially help to underline the stresses suffered by the crop or to identify the biological parameters of interest for breeding purposes. For this reason, an interesting perspective is to combine these two types of approaches.

Keywords: crop yield prediction, crop model, sensitivity analysis, paramater estimation, particle swarm optimization, random forest

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3205 Supervised Machine Learning Approach for Studying the Effect of Different Joint Sets on Stability of Mine Pit Slopes Under the Presence of Different External Factors

Authors: Sudhir Kumar Singh, Debashish Chakravarty

Abstract:

Slope stability analysis is an important aspect in the field of geotechnical engineering. It is also important from safety, and economic point of view as any slope failure leads to loss of valuable lives and damage to property worth millions. This paper aims at mitigating the risk of slope failure by studying the effect of different joint sets on the stability of mine pit slopes under the influence of various external factors, namely degree of saturation, rainfall intensity, and seismic coefficients. Supervised machine learning approach has been utilized for making accurate and reliable predictions regarding the stability of slopes based on the value of Factor of Safety. Numerous cases have been studied for analyzing the stability of slopes using the popular Finite Element Method, and the data thus obtained has been used as training data for the supervised machine learning models. The input data has been trained on different supervised machine learning models, namely Random Forest, Decision Tree, Support vector Machine, and XGBoost. Distinct test data that is not present in training data has been used for measuring the performance and accuracy of different models. Although all models have performed well on the test dataset but Random Forest stands out from others due to its high accuracy of greater than 95%, thus helping us by providing a valuable tool at our disposition which is neither computationally expensive nor time consuming and in good accordance with the numerical analysis result.

Keywords: finite element method, geotechnical engineering, machine learning, slope stability

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3204 Remotely Sensed Data Fusion to Extract Vegetation Cover in the Cultural Park of Tassili, South of Algeria

Authors: Y. Fekir, K. Mederbal, M. A. Hammadouche, D. Anteur

Abstract:

The cultural park of the Tassili, occupying a large area of Algeria, is characterized by a rich vegetative biodiversity to be preserved and managed both in time and space. The management of a large area (case of Tassili), by its complexity, needs large amounts of data, which for the most part, are spatially localized (DEM, satellite images and socio-economic information etc.), where the use of conventional and traditional methods is quite difficult. The remote sensing, by its efficiency in environmental applications, became an indispensable solution for this kind of studies. Multispectral imaging sensors have been very useful in the last decade in very interesting applications of remote sensing. They can aid in several domains such as the de¬tection and identification of diverse surface targets, topographical details, and geological features. In this work, we try to extract vegetative areas using fusion techniques between data acquired from sensor on-board the Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) satellite and Landsat ETM+ and TM sensors. We have used images acquired over the Oasis of Djanet in the National Park of Tassili in the south of Algeria. Fusion technqiues were applied on the obtained image to extract the vegetative fraction of the different classes of land use. We compare the obtained results in vegetation end member extraction with vegetation indices calculated from both Hyperion and other multispectral sensors.

Keywords: Landsat ETM+, EO1, data fusion, vegetation, Tassili, Algeria

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3203 Prediction of Live Birth in a Matched Cohort of Elective Single Embryo Transfers

Authors: Mohsen Bahrami, Banafsheh Nikmehr, Yueqiang Song, Anuradha Koduru, Ayse K. Vuruskan, Hongkun Lu, Tamer M. Yalcinkaya

Abstract:

In recent years, we have witnessed an explosion of studies aimed at using a combination of artificial intelligence (AI) and time-lapse imaging data on embryos to improve IVF outcomes. However, despite promising results, no study has used a matched cohort of transferred embryos which only differ in pregnancy outcome, i.e., embryos from a single clinic which are similar in parameters, such as: morphokinetic condition, patient age, and overall clinic and lab performance. Here, we used time-lapse data on embryos with known pregnancy outcomes to see if the rich spatiotemporal information embedded in this data would allow the prediction of the pregnancy outcome regardless of such critical parameters. Methodology—We did a retrospective analysis of time-lapse data from our IVF clinic utilizing Embryoscope 100% of the time for embryo culture to blastocyst stage with known clinical outcomes, including live birth vs nonpregnant (embryos with spontaneous abortion outcomes were excluded). We used time-lapse data from 200 elective single transfer embryos randomly selected from January 2019 to June 2021. Our sample included 100 embryos in each group with no significant difference in patient age (P=0.9550) and morphokinetic scores (P=0.4032). Data from all patients were combined to make a 4th order tensor, and feature extraction were subsequently carried out by a tensor decomposition methodology. The features were then used in a machine learning classifier to classify the two groups. Major Findings—The performance of the model was evaluated using 100 random subsampling cross validation (train (80%) - test (20%)). The prediction accuracy, averaged across 100 permutations, exceeded 80%. We also did a random grouping analysis, in which labels (live birth, nonpregnant) were randomly assigned to embryos, which yielded 50% accuracy. Conclusion—The high accuracy in the main analysis and the low accuracy in random grouping analysis suggest a consistent spatiotemporal pattern which is associated with pregnancy outcomes, regardless of patient age and embryo morphokinetic condition, and beyond already known parameters, such as: early cleavage or early blastulation. Despite small samples size, this ongoing analysis is the first to show the potential of AI methods in capturing the complex morphokinetic changes embedded in embryo time-lapse data, which contribute to successful pregnancy outcomes, regardless of already known parameters. The results on a larger sample size with complementary analysis on prediction of other key outcomes, such as: euploidy and aneuploidy of embryos will be presented at the meeting.

Keywords: IVF, embryo, machine learning, time-lapse imaging data

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3202 Parenting Practices, Challenges and Prospectus of Working Mothers in Arsi University: Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

Authors: Endalew Fufa Kufi

Abstract:

Every married person aspires to be a parent regardless of the situation in which s/he lives. Such aspiration meets with reality when the destined parent is able to give adequate supports and services to his/her children, whether the latter are got by birth or through adoption. The adequacy of services parents provide their children is both enriched and tempted by the work on which they involve. On the one hand, parents need to work and earn a living in order to support their family. On the other hand, they must spend most of their time outside home to do the work, which shortens the time and might they spare to care for their children. Where the sufficiency of services parents owe their children could be ascertained by in terms of life skills, physical care and related provisions, the role of working fathers and mothers in providing such supports could be diverse across cultures and work traditions. Hence, this research deals with the investigation of working mothers’ parental practices, challenges they face in providing parental services and the implication for the future progress of the parents and their children. Target of the study will be Arsi University in Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia. Descriptive survey design in holding the research, and data for the research will be collected in the form of experiential self-report from 150 working mothers selected from the entire working women population of Colleges of Agriculture and Environmental Studies and College of Health Sciences through stratified random-sampling. Instruments of data collection will be closed and open-ended questionnaire. Complementary data will also be collected from purposively selected samples through semi-structured interview. Data for the research will be collected through questionnaire first and then through interview. Data analysis will also follow the same procedure. The collected data will systematically be organized and statistically and thematically analyzed in order to come up with indicative findings. The overarching thesis is that, working mothers in the study area bear a lot of responsibilities both at home and at work place which leave them very little time for parenting services. Unless due attention is given to the way they can spare time for their children, they are more likely to be tense between work-life and family care services, which tempt them in different directions.

Keywords: challenges, mothers, practices, university, working

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3201 The Impact of Leadership Style and Sense of Competence on the Performance of Post-Primary School Teachers in Oyo State, Nigeria

Authors: Babajide S. Adeokin, Oguntoyinbo O. Kazeem

Abstract:

The not so pleasing state of the nation's quality of education has been a major area of research. Many researchers have looked into various aspects of the educational system and organizational structure in relation to the quality of service delivery of the staff members. However, there is paucity of research in areas relating to the sense of competence and commitment in relation to leadership styles. Against this backdrop, this study investigated the impact of leadership style and sense of competence on the performance of post-primary school teachers in Oyo state Nigeria. Data were generated across public secondary schools in the city using survey design method. Ibadan as a metropolis has eleven local government areas contained in it. A systematic random sampling technique of the eleven local government areas in Ibadan was done and five local government areas were selected. The selected local government areas are Akinyele, Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, Ibadan South and Ibadan South-West. Data were obtained from a range of two – three public secondary schools selected in each of the local government areas mentioned above. Also, these secondary schools are a representation of the variations in the constructs under consideration across the Ibadan metropolis. Categorically, all secondary school teachers in Ibadan were clustered into selected schools in those found across the five local government areas. In all, a total of 272 questionnaires were administered to public secondary school teachers, while 241 were returned. Findings revealed that transformational leadership style makes room for job commitment when compared with transactional and laissez-faire leadership styles. Teachers with a high sense of competence are more likely to demonstrate more commitment to their job than others with low sense of competence. We recommend that, it is important an assessment is made of the leadership styles employed by principals and school administrators. This guides administrators and principals in to having a clear, comprehensive knowledge of the style they currently adopt in the management of the staff and the school as a whole; and know where to begin the adjustment process from. Also to make an impact on student achievement, being attentive to teachers’ levels of commitment may be an important aspect of leadership for school principals.

Keywords: Ibadan, leadership style, sense of competence, teachers, public secondary schools

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3200 Assessment of Factors Influencing Adoption of Agroforestry Technologies in Halaba Special Woreda, Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Mihretu Erjabo

Abstract:

Halaba special district is characterized by drought, soil erosion, high population pressure, poor livestock production, lack of feed for livestock, very deep water table, very low productivity of crops and food insufficiency. In order to address these problems, the woreda agricultural development office along with other management practices such as soil physical conservation measures agroforestry was introduced decades ago as a means to alleviate the problem. However, the level of agroforestry adoption remains low. Objective of this study was to identify the factors that influence adoption of agroforestry technologies by farmers in the district. Random sampling was employed to select two kebele administrations and respondents. Data collection was conducted by rural household questionnaire survey, participatory rural appraisal, questionnaires for local and woreda extension staff, secondary data resources and field observation. A sample of 12 key informants, 6 extension staffs, and 182 households, were used in the data collection. Chi square test used to determine significant relationships between adoption of agroforestry and 15 selected variables. Out of which eleven were found to be significant to affect farmers’ adoptiveness. These were frequency of visits of farmers (13.39%), participation in training (11.49%), farmers’ attitude towards agroforestry practices (10.61%), frequency of visits of extensionists (10.38%), participation in extension meeting (10.34%), participation in field day (10.28%), land holding size (9.29%), level of literacy (8.78%), awareness about the importance of agroforestry technology packages (7.06%), time taken from their residence to nearest extension (5.04%) and gender of respondents (3.34%). This study also identified various factors that result in low adoption rates of agroforestry including fear of competition, seedling, rainfall and labour shortage, free grazing, financial problem, expecting trees as soil degrader and long span of trees and lack of need ranking. To improve farmers’ adoption, the factors identified should be well addressed by launching a series and recurrent outreach extension program appropriate and suitable to farmers need.

Keywords: farmers attitude, farmers participation, soil degradation, technology packages

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3199 Hearing Threshold Levels among Steel Industry Workers in Samut Prakan Province, Thailand

Authors: Petcharat  Kerdonfag, Surasak Taneepanichskul, Winai Wadwongtham

Abstract:

Industrial noise is usually considered as the main impact of the environmental health and safety because its exposure can cause permanently serious hearing damage. Despite providing strictly hearing protection standards and campaigning extensively encouraging public health awareness among industrial workers in Thailand, hazard noise-induced hearing loss has dramatically been massive obstacles for workers’ health. The aims of the study were to explore and specify the hearing threshold levels among steel industrial workers responsible in which higher noise levels of work zone and to examine the relationships of hearing loss and workers’ age and the length of employment in Samut Prakan province, Thailand. Cross-sectional study design was done. Ninety-three steel industrial workers in the designated zone of higher noise (> 85dBA) with more than 1 year of employment from two factories by simple random sampling and available to participate in were assessed by the audiometric screening at regional Samut Prakan hospital. Data of doing screening were collected from October to December, 2016 by the occupational medicine physician and a qualified occupational nurse. All participants were examined by the same examiners for the validity. An Audiometric testing was performed at least 14 hours after the last noise exposure from the workplace. Workers’ age and the length of employment were gathered by the developed occupational record form. Results: The range of workers’ age was from 23 to 59 years, (Mean = 41.67, SD = 9.69) and the length of employment was from 1 to 39 years, (Mean = 13.99, SD = 9.88). Fifty three (60.0%) out of all participants have been exposing to the hazard of noise in the workplace for more than 10 years. Twenty-three (24.7%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise less than or equal to 5 years. Seventeen (18.3%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise for 5 to 10 years. Using the cut point of less than or equal to 25 dBA of hearing thresholds, the average means of hearing thresholds for participants at 4, 6, and 8 kHz were 31.34, 29.62, and 25.64 dB, respectively for the right ear and 40.15, 32.20, and 25.48 dB for the left ear, respectively. The more developing age of workers in the work zone with hazard of noise, the more the hearing thresholds would be increasing at frequencies of 4, 6, and 8 kHz (p =.012, p =.026, p =.024) for the right ear, respectively and for the left ear only at the frequency 4 kHz (p =.009). Conclusion: The participants’ age in the hazard of noise work zone was significantly associated with the hearing loss in different levels while the length of participants’ employment was not significantly associated with the hearing loss. Thus hearing threshold levels among industrial workers would be regularly assessed and needed to be protected at the beginning of working.

Keywords: hearing threshold levels, hazard of noise, hearing loss, audiometric testing

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3198 Deep Feature Augmentation with Generative Adversarial Networks for Class Imbalance Learning in Medical Images

Authors: Rongbo Shen, Jianhua Yao, Kezhou Yan, Kuan Tian, Cheng Jiang, Ke Zhou

Abstract:

This study proposes a generative adversarial networks (GAN) framework to perform synthetic sampling in feature space, i.e., feature augmentation, to address the class imbalance problem in medical image analysis. A feature extraction network is first trained to convert images into feature space. Then the GAN framework incorporates adversarial learning to train a feature generator for the minority class through playing a minimax game with a discriminator. The feature generator then generates features for minority class from arbitrary latent distributions to balance the data between the majority class and the minority class. Additionally, a data cleaning technique, i.e., Tomek link, is employed to clean up undesirable conflicting features introduced from the feature augmentation and thus establish well-defined class clusters for the training. The experiment section evaluates the proposed method on two medical image analysis tasks, i.e., mass classification on mammogram and cancer metastasis classification on histopathological images. Experimental results suggest that the proposed method obtains superior or comparable performance over the state-of-the-art counterparts. Compared to all counterparts, our proposed method improves more than 1.5 percentage of accuracy.

Keywords: class imbalance, synthetic sampling, feature augmentation, generative adversarial networks, data cleaning

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3197 Analysing Responses of Intermediate and Expert Karate Athletes towards the Gyaku-Zuki Using Virtual Reality

Authors: Nicole Bandow, Peter Emmermacher, Oliver Wienert, Steffen Masik, Kerstin Witte

Abstract:

Karate-kumite is a fast sport where a good perception and anticipation of movements is needed in order to respond appropriately. Perception and anticipation are therefore essential for an efficient and precise movement control and a limiting factor in karate kumite. Previous studies only used 2D video technologies combined with the occlusion technique to study anticipation in sports. These studies showed limitations in the usage of 2D video footage in regards to realism and the presentation of depth information. To overcome these issues a virtual 3D environment was developed to create a similar to real life environment. The aim of this study was to compare the differences in responses of intermediate and expert karate athletes towards temporally and spatially occluded virtual karate attacks from two attackers. Five male expert and five intermediate karate athletes responded physically to nine (3 temporal combined with 3 spatial) occluded attacks of the Gyaku-Zuki of each attacker in the 3D virtual environment. The responses were evaluated in regards to correct point of time and appropriate response technique. Significant differences between the expertises’ responses for the attackers were found. Experts respond more often correct to early information of attacks than novices.

Keywords: anticipation, karate, occlusion, virtual reality

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3196 Prevalence and Correlates of Mental Disorders in Children and Adolescents in Mendefera Community, Eritrea

Authors: Estifanos H. Zeru

Abstract:

Introduction: Epidemiological research is important to draw need-based rational public health policy. However, research on child and adolescent mental health in low and middle income countries, where socioeconomic, political, cultural, biological and other mental health hazards are in abundance, is almost nonexistent. To the author's knowledge, there is no published research in this field in Eritrea, whose child and adolescent population constitutes 53% of its total population. Study Aims and Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and patterns of DSM-IV psychiatric disorders and identify their socio-demographic correlates among children and adolescents in Mendefera, Eritrea. The study aims to provide local information to public health policymakers to guide policy in service development. Methodology: In a cross-sectional two stage procedure, both the Parent and Child versions of the SDQ were used to screen 314 children and adolescents aged 4-17 years, recruited by a multi-stage random sampling method. All parents/adult guardians also completed a socio-demographic questionnaire. All children and adolescents who screened positive for any of the SDQ abnormality sub-classes were selected for the second stage interview, which was conducted using the K-SADS-PL 2009 Working Draft version to generate specific DSM-IV diagnoses. All data gathered was entered into CSPro version 6.2 and was then transported in to and analyzed using SPSS version 20 for windows. Results: Prevalence of DSM-IV psychiatric disorders was found to be 13.1%. Adolescents 11-17 years old and males had higher prevalence than children 4-10 years old and females, respectively. Behavioral disorders were the commonest disorders (9.9%), followed by affective disorders (3.2%) and anxiety disorders (2.5). Chronic medical illness in the child, poor academic performance, difficulties with teachers in school, psychopathology in a family member and parental conflict were found to be independently associated with these disorders. Conclusion: Prevalence of child and adolescent psychiatric disorders in Eritrea is high. Promotion, prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation for child and adolescent mental health services need to be made widely available in the country. The socio-demographic correlates identified by this study can be targeted for intervention. The need for further research is emphasized.

Keywords: adolescents, children, correlates, DSM-IV psychiatric disorders, Eritrea, K-SAD-PL 2009, prevalence and correlates, SDQ

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3195 Investigating the Indoor Air Quality of the Respiratory Care Wards

Authors: Yu-Wen Lin, Chin-Sheng Tang, Wan-Yi Chen

Abstract:

Various biological specimens, drugs, and chemicals exist in the hospital. The medical staffs and hypersensitive inpatients expose might expose to multiple hazards while they work or stay in the hospital. Therefore, the indoor air quality (IAQ) of the hospital should be paid more attention. Respiratory care wards (RCW) are responsible for caring the patients who cannot spontaneously breathe without the ventilators. The patients in RCW are easy to be infected. Compared to the bacteria concentrations of other hospital units, RCW came with higher values in other studies. This research monitored the IAQ of the RCW and checked the compliances of the indoor air quality standards of Taiwan Indoor Air Quality Act. Meanwhile, the influential factors of IAQ and the impacts of ventilator modules, with humidifier or with filter, were investigated. The IAQ of two five-bed wards and one nurse station of a RCW in a regional hospital were monitored. The monitoring was proceeded for 16 hours or 24 hours during the sampling days with a sampling frequency of 20 minutes per hour. The monitoring was performed for two days in a row and the AIQ of the RCW were measured for eight days in total. The concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxide (NOₓ), total volatile organic compounds (TVOCs), relative humidity (RH) and temperature were measured by direct reading instruments. The bioaerosol samples were taken hourly. The hourly air change rate (ACH) was calculated by measuring the air ventilation volume. Human activities were recorded during the sampling period. The linear mixed model (LMM) was applied to illustrate the impact factors of IAQ. The concentrations of CO, CO₂, PM, bacterial and fungi exceeded the Taiwan IAQ standards. The major factors affecting the concentrations of CO, PM₁ and PM₂.₅ were location and the number of inpatients. The significant factors to alter the CO₂ and TVOC concentrations were location and the numbers of in-and-out staff and inpatients. The number of in-and-out staff and the level of activity affected the PM₁₀ concentrations statistically. The level of activity and the numbers of in-and-out staff and inpatients are the significant factors in changing the bacteria and fungi concentrations. Different models of the patients’ ventilators did not affect the IAQ significantly. The results of LMM can be utilized to predict the pollutant concentrations under various environmental conditions. The results of this study would be a valuable reference for air quality management of RCW.

Keywords: respiratory care ward, indoor air quality, linear mixed model, bioaerosol

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3194 Climate Change and Migration from Ngala and Kala-Balge LGAs, North-Eastern Borno State, Nigeria

Authors: Adam Modu Abbas

Abstract:

Nigeria, due to its location, size and population is very vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Little effort is however made to address most of the problems, despite the fact that sufficient understanding is made on the impact of climate change and problems emanating from it are also always being propagated. Migration, one of the resultant effects of climate change is however given less attention. This paper focuses on the climate change impact and one of resulting effects, migration and its associated problems. Purposive sampling technique was adopted in sampling 250 respondents who were mainly family members of out-migrants from Ngala and Kala-Balge LGAs of North-eastern Borno State, Nigeria. Available literatures were consulted for the types of climate change impacts. The results revealed that, climate change leads to climatic variation over the space with numerous effects on the environment such as intermittent droughts, desertification/deforestation, low water table and establishment of dams across the courses of the main sources of water supply to the Lake Chad. Many people in the study area either migrated to Cameroon’s Darrak, Lake Doi and Mayo Mbund, Lagos, Nigeria, leaving some members of their families at home. More than half of respondents indicated that the heads of the households migrated as a result of poor harvest due to diminishing or fluctuating rains/drought and/or drying of river Surbewel. It is recommended that; inter-basin water transfers should be embarked upon.

Keywords: climate, change, migration, dam, intermittent

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3193 Hydrological Modelling to Identify Critical Erosion Areas in Gheshlagh Dam Basin

Authors: Golaleh Ghaffari

Abstract:

A basin sediment yield refers to the amount of sediment exported by a basin over a period of time, which will enter a reservoir located at the downstream limit of the basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, 2008) was used to hydrology and sediment transport modeling at daily and monthly time steps within the Gheshlagh dam basin in north-west of Iran. The SWAT model and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were applied to evaluate basin hydrology and sediment yield using historical flow and sediment data and to identify and prioritize critical sub-basins based on sediment transport. The results of this study indicated that simulated daily discharge and sediment values matched the observed values satisfactorily. The model predicted that mean annual basin precipitation for the total study period (413 mm) was partitioned in to evapotranspiration (36%), percolation/groundwater recharge (21%) and stream water (25%), yielding 18% surface runoff. Potential source areas of erosion were also identified with the model. The range of the annual contributing erosive zones varied spatially from 0.1 to 103 t/ha according to the slope and land use at the basin scale. Also the fifteen sub basins create the 60% of the total sediment yield between the all (102) sub basins. The results of the study indicated that SWAT can be a useful tool for assessing hydrology and sediment yield response of the watersheds in the region.

Keywords: erosion, Gheshlagh dam, sediment yield, SWAT

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3192 Continuous Plug Flow and Discrete Particle Phase Coupling Using Triangular Parcels

Authors: Anders Schou Simonsen, Thomas Condra, Kim Sørensen

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Various processes are modelled using a discrete phase, where particles are seeded from a source. Such particles can represent liquid water droplets, which are affecting the continuous phase by exchanging thermal energy, momentum, species etc. Discrete phases are typically modelled using parcel, which represents a collection of particles, which share properties such as temperature, velocity etc. When coupling the phases, the exchange rates are integrated over the cell, in which the parcel is located. This can cause spikes and fluctuating exchange rates. This paper presents an alternative method of coupling a discrete and a continuous plug flow phase. This is done using triangular parcels, which span between nodes following the dynamics of single droplets. Thus, the triangular parcels are propagated using the corner nodes. At each time step, the exchange rates are spatially integrated over the surface of the triangular parcels, which yields a smooth continuous exchange rate to the continuous phase. The results shows that the method is more stable, converges slightly faster and yields smooth exchange rates compared with the steam tube approach. However, the computational requirements are about five times greater, so the applicability of the alternative method should be limited to processes, where the exchange rates are important. The overall balances of the exchanged properties did not change significantly using the new approach.

Keywords: CFD, coupling, discrete phase, parcel

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3191 Catastrophic Health Expenditures: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Nepal's National Health Insurance Program Using Propensity Score Matching and Doubly Robust Methodology

Authors: Simrin Kafle, Ulrika Enemark

Abstract:

Catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) is a critical issue in low- and middle-income countries like Nepal, exacerbating financial hardship among vulnerable households. This study assesses the effectiveness of Nepal’s National Health Insurance Program (NHIP), launched in 2015, to reduce out-of-pocket (OOP) healthcare costs and mitigate CHE. Conducted in Pokhara Metropolitan City, the study used an analytical cross-sectional design, sampling 1276 households through a two-stage random sampling method. Data was collected via face-to-face interviews between May and October 2023. The analysis was conducted using SPSS version 29, incorporating propensity score matching to minimize biases and create comparable groups of enrolled and non-enrolled households in the NHIP. PSM helped reduce confounding effects by matching households with similar baseline characteristics. Additionally, a doubly robust methodology was employed, combining propensity score adjustment with regression modeling to enhance the reliability of the results. This comprehensive approach ensured a more accurate estimation of the impact of NHIP enrollment on CHE. Among the 1276 samples, 534 households (41.8%) were enrolled in NHIP. Of them, 84.3% of households renewed their insurance card, though some cited long waiting times, lack of medications, and complex procedures as barriers to renewal. Approximately 57.3% of households reported known diseases before enrollment, with 49.8% attending routine health check-ups in the past year. The primary motivation for enrollment was encouragement from insurance employees (50.2%). The data indicates that 12.5% of enrolled households experienced CHE versus 7.5% among non-enrolled. Enrollment into NHIP does not contribute to lower CHE (AOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.21-3.24). Key factors associated with increased CHE risk were presence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (AOR: 3.94, 95% CI: 2.10-7.39), acute illnesses/injuries (AOR: 6.70, 95% CI: 3.97-11.30), larger household size (AOR: 3.09, 95% CI: 1.81-5.28), and households below the poverty line (AOR: 5.82, 95% CI: 3.05-11.09). Other factors such as gender, education level, caste/ethnicity, presence of elderly members, and under-five children also showed varying associations with CHE, though not all were statistically significant. The study concludes that enrollment in the NHIP does not significantly reduce the risk of CHE. The reason for this could be inadequate coverage, where high-cost medicines, treatments, and transportation costs are not fully included in the insurance package, leading to significant out-of-pocket expenses. We also considered the long waiting time, lack of medicines, and complex procedures for the utilization of NHIP benefits, which might result in the underuse of covered services. Finally, gaps in enrollment and retention might leave certain households vulnerable to CHE despite the existence of NHIP. Key factors contributing to increased CHE include NCDs, acute illnesses, larger household sizes, and poverty. To improve the program’s effectiveness, it is recommended that NHIP benefits and coverage be expanded to better protect against high healthcare costs. Additionally, simplifying the renewal process, addressing long waiting times, and enhancing the availability of services could improve member satisfaction and retention. Targeted financial protection measures should be implemented for high-risk groups, and efforts should be made to increase awareness and encourage routine health check-ups to prevent severe health issues that contribute to CHE.

Keywords: catastrophic health expenditure, effectiveness, national health insurance program, Nepal

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3190 Predictive Factors of Exercise Behaviors of Junior High School Students in Chonburi Province

Authors: Tanida Julvanichpong

Abstract:

Exercise has been regarded as a necessary and important aspect to enhance physical performance and psychology health. Body weight statistics of students in junior high school students in Chonburi Province beyond a standard risk of obesity. Promoting exercise among Junior high school students in Chonburi Province, essential knowledge concerning factors influencing exercise is needed. Therefore, this study aims to (1) determine the levels of perceived exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived barriers to exercise, perceived benefits of exercise, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, feelings associated with exercise behavior, influence of the family to exercise, influence of friends to exercise, and the perceived influence of the environment on exercise. (2) examine the predicting ability of each of the above factors while including personal factors (sex, educational level) for exercise behavior. Pender’s Health Promotion Model was used as a guide for the study. Sample included 652 students in junior high schools, Chonburi Provience. The samples were selected by Multi-Stage Random Sampling. Data Collection has been done by using self-administered questionnaires. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficient, Eta, and stepwise multiple regression analysis. The research results showed that: 1. Perceived benefits of exercise, influence of teacher, influence of environmental, feelings associated with exercise behavior were at a high level. Influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise and influence of friends were at a moderate level. Perceived barriers to exercise were at a low level. 2. Exercise behavior was positively significant related to perceived benefits of exercise, influence of the family to exercise, exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, influence of friends, influence of teacher, influence of environmental and feelings associated with exercise behavior (p < .01, respectively) and was negatively significant related to educational level and perceived barriers to exercise (p < .01, respectively). Exercise behavior was significant related to sex (Eta = 0.243, p=.000). 3. Exercise behavior in the past, influence of the family to exercise significantly contributed 60.10 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in male students (p < .01). Exercise behavior in the past, perceived self-efficacy to exercise, perceived barriers to exercise, and educational level significantly contributed 52.60 percent of the variance to the prediction of exercise behavior in female students (p < .01).

Keywords: predictive factors, exercise behaviors, Junior high school, Chonburi Province

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3189 A Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Model with an Underlying Cluster Structure for the Analysis of Measles in Colombia

Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

Abstract:

In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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3188 Bias-Corrected Estimation Methods for Receiver Operating Characteristic Surface

Authors: Khanh To Duc, Monica Chiogna, Gianfranco Adimari

Abstract:

With three diagnostic categories, assessment of the performance of diagnostic tests is achieved by the analysis of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) surface, which generalizes the ROC curve for binary diagnostic outcomes. The volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is a summary index usually employed for measuring the overall diagnostic accuracy. When the true disease status can be exactly assessed by means of a gold standard (GS) test, unbiased nonparametric estimators of the ROC surface and VUS are easily obtained. In practice, unfortunately, disease status verification via the GS test could be unavailable for all study subjects, due to the expensiveness or invasiveness of the GS test. Thus, often only a subset of patients undergoes disease verification. Statistical evaluations of diagnostic accuracy based only on data from subjects with verified disease status are typically biased. This bias is known as verification bias. Here, we consider the problem of correcting for verification bias when continuous diagnostic tests for three-class disease status are considered. We assume that selection for disease verification does not depend on disease status, given test results and other observed covariates, i.e., we assume that the true disease status, when missing, is missing at random. Under this assumption, we discuss several solutions for ROC surface analysis based on imputation and re-weighting methods. In particular, verification bias-corrected estimators of the ROC surface and of VUS are proposed, namely, full imputation, mean score imputation, inverse probability weighting and semiparametric efficient estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established, and their finite sample behavior is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulation studies. Two illustrations using real datasets are also given.

Keywords: imputation, missing at random, inverse probability weighting, ROC surface analysis

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3187 Outcome of Comparison between Partial Thickness Skin Graft Harvesting from Scalp and Lower Limb for Scalp Defect: A Clinical Trial Study

Authors: Mahdi Eskandarlou, Mehrdad Taghipour

Abstract:

Background: Partial-thickness skin graft is the cornerstone for scalp defect repair. Routine donor sites include abdomen, thighs, and buttocks. Given the potential side effects following harvesting from these sites and the potential advantages of harvesting from scalp (broad surface, rapid healing, and better cosmetics results), this study is trying to compare the outcomes of graft harvesting from scalp and lower limb. Methods: This clinical trial is conducted among a sample number of 40 partial thickness graft candidates (20 case and 20 control group) with scalp defect presenting to plastic surgery clinic at Besat Hospital during the time period between 2018 and 2019. Sampling was done by simple randomization using random digit table. Data gathering was performed using a designated checklist. The donor site in case group and control group was scalp and lower limb, respectively. The resultant data were analyzed using chi-squared and t-test and SPPS version 21 (SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 21.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp). Results: Of the total 40 patients participating in this study, 28 patients (70%) were male, and 12 (30%) were female with and mean age of 63.62 ± 09.73 years. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities among patients with basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and trauma being the most common etiology for the defects. There was a statistically meaningful relationship between two groups regarding the etiology of defect (P=0.02). The most common anatomic location of defect for case and control groups was temporal and parietal, respectively. Most of the defects were deep to galea zone. The mean diameter of defect was 24.28 ± 45.37 mm for all of the patients. The difference between diameter of defect in both groups was statistically meaningful, while no such difference between graft diameter was seen. The graft 'Take' was completely successful in both groups according to evaluations. The level of postoperative pain was lower in the case group compared to the control according to VAS scale, and the satisfaction was higher in them per Likert scale. Conclusion: Scalp can safely be used as donor site for skin graft to be used for scalp defects, which is associated with better results and lower complication rates compared to other donor sites.

Keywords: donor site, leg, partial-thickness graft, scalp

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3186 Statistical Design of Synthetic VP X-bar Control Chat Using Markov Chain Approach

Authors: Ali Akbar Heydari

Abstract:

Control charts are an important tool of statistical quality control. Thesecharts are used to detect and eliminate unwanted special causes of variation that occurred during aperiod of time. The design and operation of control charts require the determination of three design parameters: the sample size (n), the sampling interval (h), and the width coefficient of control limits (k). Thevariable parameters (VP) x-bar controlchart is the x-barchart in which all the design parameters vary between twovalues. These values are a function of the most recent process information. In fact, in the VP x-bar chart, the position of each sample point on the chart establishes the size of the next sample and the timeof its sampling. The synthetic x-barcontrol chartwhich integrates the x-bar chart and the conforming run length (CRL) chart, provides significant improvement in terms of detection power over the basic x-bar chart for all levels of mean shifts. In this paper, we introduce the syntheticVP x-bar control chart for monitoring changes in the process mean. To determine the design parameters, we used a statistical design based on the minimum out of control average run length (ARL) criteria. The optimal chart parameters of the proposed chart are obtained using the Markov chain approach. A numerical example is also done to show the performance of the proposed chart and comparing it with the other control charts. The results show that our proposed syntheticVP x-bar controlchart perform better than the synthetic x-bar controlchart for all shift parameter values. Also, the syntheticVP x-bar controlchart perform better than the VP x-bar control chart for the moderate or large shift parameter values.

Keywords: control chart, markov chain approach, statistical design, synthetic, variable parameter

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3185 Human Resource Management Challenges in Age of Artificial Intelligence: Methodology of Case Analysis

Authors: Olga Leontjeva

Abstract:

In the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), some organization management approaches need to be adapted or changed. Human Resource Management (HRM) is a part of organization management that is under the managers' focus nowadays, because AI integration into organization activities brings some HRM-connected challenges. The topic became more significant during the crises of many organizations in the world caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19). The paper presents an approach, which will be used for the study that is going to be focused on the various case analysis. The author of the future study will analyze the cases of the organizations from Latvia and Spain that are grouped by the size, type of activity and area of business. The information for the cases will be collected through structured interviews and online surveys. The main result presented is the questionnaire developed that will be used for the study as well as the definition and description of sampling. The first round of the survey will be based on convenience sampling that is the main limitation of the study. To conclude, the approach developed will help to collect valid data if the organizations participating in the survey are ready to share their cases in depth, so the researchers could draw the right conclusions and generalize compared organizations’ cases. The questionnaire developed for the survey is applicable for both written online data collection as well as for the interviews. The case analysis will help to identify some HRM challenges that are connected to AI integration into organization activities such as management of different generation employees and their training peculiarities.

Keywords: age of artificial intelligence, case analysis, generation Y and Z employees, human resource management

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3184 Use of Pragmatic Cues for Word Learning in Bilingual and Monolingual Children

Authors: Isabelle Lorge, Napoleon Katsos

Abstract:

BACKGROUND: Children growing up in a multilingual environment face challenges related to the need to monitor the speaker’s linguistic abilities, more frequent communication failures, and having to acquire a large number of words in a limited amount of time compared to monolinguals. As a result, bilingual learners may develop different word learning strategies, rely more on some strategies than others, and engage cognitive resources such as theory of mind and attention skills in different ways. HYPOTHESIS: The goal of our study is to investigate whether multilingual exposure leads to improvements in the ability to use pragmatic inference for word learning, i.e., to use speaker cues to derive their referring intentions, often by overcoming lower level salience effects. The speaker cues we identified as relevant are (a) use of a modifier with or without stress (‘the WET dax’ prompting the choice of the referent which has a dry counterpart), (b) referent extension (‘this is a kitten with a fep’ prompting the choice of the unique rather than shared object), (c) referent novelty (choosing novel action rather than novel object which has been manipulated already), (d) teacher versus random sampling (assuming the choice of specific examples for a novel word to be relevant to the extension of that new category), and finally (e) emotional affect (‘look at the figoo’ uttered in a sad or happy voice) . METHOD: To this end, we implemented on a touchscreen computer a task corresponding to each of the cues above, where the child had to pick the referent of a novel word. These word learning tasks (a), (b), (c), (d) and (e) were adapted from previous word learning studies. 113 children have been tested (54 reception and 59 year 1, ranging from 4 to 6 years old) in a London primary school. Bilingual or monolingual status and other relevant information (age of onset, proficiency, literacy for bilinguals) is ascertained through language questionnaires from parents (34 out of 113 received to date). While we do not yet have the data that will allow us to test for effect of bilingualism, we can already see that performances are far from approaching ceiling in any of the tasks. In some cases the children’s performances radically differ from adults’ in a qualitative way, which means that there is scope for quantitative and qualitative effects to arise between language groups. The findings should contribute to explain the puzzling speed and efficiency that bilinguals demonstrate in acquiring competence in two languages.

Keywords: bilingualism, pragmatics, word learning, attention

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3183 The Value of Routine Terminal Ileal Biopsies for the Investigation of Diarrhea

Authors: Swati Bhasin, Ali Ahmed, Valence Xavier, Ben Liu

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Aims: Diarrhea is a problem that is a frequent clinic referral to the gastroenterology and surgical team from the General practitioner. To establish a diagnosis, these patients undergo colonoscopy. The current practice at our district general hospital is to perform random left and right colonic biopsies. National guidelines issued by the British Society of Gastroenterology advise all patients presenting with chronic diarrhea should have an Ileoscopy as an indicator for colonoscopy completion. Our primary aim was to check if Terminal ileum (TI) biopsy is required to establish a diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: Data was collected retrospectively from November 2018 to November 2019. The target population were patients who underwent colonoscopies for diarrhea. Demographic data, endoscopic and histology findings of TI were assessed and analyzed. Results: 140 patients with a mean age of 57 years (19-84) underwent a colonoscopy (M: F; 1:2.3). 92 patients had random colonic biopsies taken and based on the histological results of these, 15 patients (16%) were diagnosed with IBD. The TI was successfully intubated in 40 patients, of which 32 patients had colonic biopsies taken as well. 8 patients did not have a colonic biopsy taken. Macroscopic abnormality in the TI was detected in 5 patients, all of whom were biopsied. Based on histological results of the biopsy, 3 patients (12%) were diagnosed with IBD. These 3 patients (100%) also had colonic biopsies taken simultaneously and showed inflammation. None of the patients had a diagnosis of IBD confirmed on TI intubation alone (where colonic biopsies were not done). None of the patients has a diagnosis of IBD confirmed on TI intubation alone (where colonic biopsies were negative). Conclusion: TI intubation is a highly-skilled, time-consuming procedure with a higher risk of perforation, which as per our study, has little additional diagnostic value in finding IBD for symptoms of diarrhea if colonic biopsies are taken. We propose that diarrhea is a colonic symptom; therefore, colonic biopsies are positive for inflammation if the diarrhea is secondary to IBD. We conclude that all of the IBDs can be diagnosed simply with colonic biopsies.

Keywords: biopsy, colon, IBD, terminal ileum

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3182 Effect of On-Road Vehicular Traffic on Noise Pollution in Bhubaneswar City, Eastern India

Authors: Dudam Bharath Kumar, Harsh Kumar, Naveed Ahmed

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Vehicular traffic on the road-side plays a significant role in affecting the noise pollution in most of the cities over the world. To assess the correlation of the road-traffic on noise pollution in the city environment, continuous measurements were carried out in an entire daytime starting from 8:00 AM IST to 6:00 PM IST at a single point for each 5 minutes (8:00-8:05, 9:00-9:05, 10:00-10:05 AM, ...) near the KIIT University campus road. Noise levels were observed using a mobile operated app of android cell phone and a handheld noise meter. Calibration analysis shows high correlation about 0.89 for the study location for the day time period. Results show diurnal variability of atmospheric noise pollution levels go hand-in and with the vehicular number which pass through a point of observation. The range of noise pollution levels in the daytime period is observed as 55 to 75 dB(A). As a day starts, sudden upsurge of noise levels is observed from 65 to 71 dB(A) in the early morning, 64 dB(A) in late morning, regains the same quantity 68-71 dB(A) in the afternoon, and rises 70 dB(A) in the early evening. Vehicular number of the corresponding noise levels exhibits 115-120, 150-160, and 140-160, respectively. However, this preliminary study suggests the importance of vehicular traffic on noise pollution levels in the urban environment and further to study population exposed to noise levels. Innovative approaches help curb the noise pollution through modelling the traffic noise pollution spatially and temporally over the city environments.

Keywords: noise pollution, vehicular traffic, urban environment, noise meter

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3181 Performance Tests of Wood Glues on Different Wood Species Used in Wood Workshops: Morogoro Tanzania

Authors: Japhet N. Mwambusi

Abstract:

High tropical forests deforestation for solid wood furniture industry is among of climate change contributing agents. This pressure indirectly is caused by furniture joints failure due to poor gluing technology based on improper use of different glues to different wood species which lead to low quality and weak wood-glue joints. This study was carried in order to run performance tests of wood glues on different wood species used in wood workshops: Morogoro Tanzania whereby three popular wood species of C. lusitanica, T. glandis and E. maidenii were tested against five glues of Woodfix, Bullbond, Ponal, Fevicol and Coral found in the market. The findings were necessary on developing a guideline for proper glue selection for a particular wood species joining. Random sampling was employed to interview carpenters while conducting a survey on the background of carpenters like their education level and to determine factors that influence their glues choice. Monsanto Tensiometer was used to determine bonding strength of identified wood glues to different wood species in use under British Standard of testing wood shear strength (BS EN 205) procedures. Data obtained from interviewing carpenters were analyzed through Statistical Package of Social Science software (SPSS) to allow the comparison of different data while laboratory data were compiled, related and compared by the use of MS Excel worksheet software as well as Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Results revealed that among all five wood glues tested in the laboratory to three different wood species, Coral performed much better with the average shear strength 4.18 N/mm2, 3.23 N/mm2 and 5.42 N/mm2 for Cypress, Teak and Eucalyptus respectively. This displays that for a strong joint to be formed to all tree wood species for soft wood and hard wood, Coral has a first priority in use. The developed table of guideline from this research can be useful to carpenters on proper glue selection to a particular wood species so as to meet glue-bond strength. This will secure furniture market as well as reduce pressure to the forests for furniture production because of the strong existing furniture due to their strong joints. Indeed, this can be a good strategy on reducing climate change speed in tropics which result from high deforestation of trees for furniture production.

Keywords: climate change, deforestation, gluing technology, joint failure, wood-glue, wood species

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3180 2D Surface Flow Model in The Biebrza Floodplain

Authors: Dorota Miroslaw-Swiatek, Mateusz Grygoruk, Sylwia Szporak

Abstract:

We applied a two-dimensional surface water flow model with irregular wet boundaries. In this model, flow equations are in the form of a 2-D, non-linear diffusion equations which allows to account spatial variations in flow resistance and topography. Calculation domain to simulate the flow pattern in the floodplain is congruent with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) grid. The rate and direction of sheet flow in wetlands is affected by vegetation type and density, therefore the developed model take into account spatial distribution vegetation resistance to the water flow. The model was tested in a part of the Biebrza Valley, of an outstanding heterogeneity in the elevation and flow resistance distributions due to various ecohydrological conditions and management measures. In our approach we used the highest-possible quality of the DEM in order to obtain hydraulic slopes and vegetation distribution parameters for the modelling. The DEM was created from the cloud of points measured in the LiDAR technology. The LiDAR reflects both the land surface as well as all objects on top of it such as vegetation. Depending on the density of vegetation cover the ability of laser penetration is variable. Therefore to obtain accurate land surface model the “vegetation effect” was corrected using data collected in the field (mostly the vegetation height) and satellite imagery such as Ikonos (to distinguish different vegetation types of the floodplain and represent them spatially). Model simulation was performed for the spring thaw flood in 2009.

Keywords: floodplain flow, Biebrza valley, model simulation, 2D surface flow model

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3179 Molecular Dynamics Simulation of Irradiation-Induced Damage Cascades in Graphite

Authors: Rong Li, Brian D. Wirth, Bing Liu

Abstract:

Graphite is the matrix, and structural material in the high temperature gas-cooled reactor exhibits an irradiation response. It is of significant importance to analyze the defect production and evaluate the role of graphite under irradiation. A vast experimental literature exists for graphite on the dimensional change, mechanical properties, and thermal behavior. However, simulations have not been applied to the atomistic perspective. Remarkably few molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to study the irradiation response in graphite. In this paper, irradiation-induced damage cascades in graphite were investigated with molecular dynamics simulation. Statistical results of the graphite defects were obtained by sampling a wide energy range (1–30 KeV) and 10 different runs for every cascade simulation with different random number generator seeds to the velocity scaling thermostat function. The chemical bonding in carbon was described using the adaptive intermolecular reactive empirical bond-order potential (AIREBO) potential coupled with the standard Ziegler–Biersack–Littmack (ZBL) potential to describe close-range pair interactions. This study focused on analyzing the number of defects, the final cascade morphology and the distribution of defect clusters in space, the length-scale cascade properties such as the cascade length and the range of primary knock-on atom (PKA), and graphite mechanical properties’ variation. It can be concluded that the number of surviving Frenkel pairs increased remarkably with the increasing initial PKA energy but did not exhibit a thermal spike at slightly lower energies in this paper. The PKA range and cascade length approximately linearly with energy which indicated that increasing the PKA initial energy will come at expensive computation cost such as 30KeV in this study. The cascade morphology and the distribution of defect clusters in space mainly related to the PKA energy meanwhile the temperature effect was relatively negligible. The simulations are in agreement with known experimental results and the Kinchin-Pease model, which can help to understand the graphite damage cascades and lifetime span under irradiation and provide a direction to the designs of these kinds of structural materials in the future reactors.

Keywords: graphite damage cascade, molecular dynamics, cascade morphology, cascade distribution

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