Search results for: generalized autoregressive score model

Authors: Mengna Hu

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This paper examines the impact of an anti-speculation tax policy on the trading activities and home price movements in the housing market in Hong Kong. The study focuses on the secondary residential property market where transactions dominate. The policy intervention substantially raised the transaction cost to speculators as well as genuine homeowners who dispose their homes within a certain period. Through the demonstration of structural breaks, our empirical results show that the rise in transaction cost effectively reduced speculative trading activities. However, it accelerated price increase in the small-sized segment by vastly demotivating existing homeowners from trading up to better homes, causing congestion in the lower-end market where the demand from first-time buyers is still strong. Apart from that, by employing regime switching approach, we further show that the unintended consequences are likely to be persistent due to this policy together with other strengthened cooling measures.

Keywords: transaction costs, housing market, structural breaks, regime switching

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Authors: Sung Hyun Kim

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Introduction: Sleep disturbance is common in children with developmental disorders (D.D.). Sleep disturbance has a variety of negative effects, such as behavior problems, medical problems, and even developmental problems in children with D.D. However, to our best knowledge, there has been no proper treatment for sleep disorders in children with D.D. Therefore, we conduct this study to know the positive effects of intensive rehabilitation therapy in children with D.D. on the degree of sleep disturbance. Method: We prospectively recruited 22 patients with a diagnosis of D.D. during the period of January 2022 through May 2022. The inclusion criteria were as follows: 1) a patient who would participate in the intensive rehabilitation therapy of our institution; 2) the age participant under 18 years at the time of assessment; 3) a child who has consented to participate in the study by signing the consent form by the legal guardian. We investigated the clinical characteristics of participants by the medical record, including sex, age, underlying diagnosis of D.D., and Gross Motor Function Measures (GMFM). Before starting the intensive rehabilitation therapy, we conducted a Sleep disturbance scale for children (SDSC). It contains 26 questions about children’s sleep, and those questions are grouped into six subscales, such as Disorders of initiating and maintaining sleep (DIMS), Sleep Breathing Disorders(SBD), Disorders of arousal(DOA), Sleep-Wake Transition Disorders(SWTD), Disorders of excessive somnolence(DOES) and Sleep Hyperhydrosis(SHY). We used the t-score, which was calculated by comparing the scores of normal children. Twenty two patients received 8 weeks of intensive rehabilitation, including daily physical and occupational therapy. After that, we did follow up with SDSC. The comparison between SDSC before and after intensive rehabilitation was calculated using the paired t-test, and P< 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: Demographic data and clinical characteristics of 22 patients are enrolled. Patients were 4.03 ± 2.91 years old, and of the total 22 patients, 14 (64%) were male, and 8 (36%) were female. Twelve patients(45%) were diagnosed with Cerebral palsy(C.P.), and the mean value of participants’ GMFM was 47.82 ± 20.60. Each mean value of SDSC’s subscales was also calculated. DIMS was 62.36 ± 13.72, SBD was 54.18 ± 8.39, DOA was 49.59 ± 7.01, SWTD was 58.95 ± 9.20, DOES was 53.09 ± 15.15, SHY was 52.14 ± 8.82, and the total was 59.86 ± 13.18. These values suggest that children with D.D. have sleep disorders. After 8 weeks of intensive rehabilitation treatment, the score of DIMS showed improvement(p=0.016), but not the other subscale and total score of SDSC. Conclusion: This result showed that intensive rehabilitation could be helpful to patients of D.D. with sleep disorders. Especially intensive rehabilitation therapy itself can be a meaningful treatment in inducing and maintaining sleep.

Keywords: sleep disorder, developmental delay, intensive rehabilitation therapy, cerebral palsy

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Authors: Bernard Vaernes

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Creativity is thought to be of importance for educational success. Educational institutions vary greatly in regard to socioeconomic status (SES) and curricular emphasis on creativity. Research is needed to clarify the effects of age and SES on creativity. The objective of this study will be to compare the creative performance of children with different SES, low or high, and age. It is hypothesized that younger children will score higher than older children, independent of their SES. Children aged 15, 12, and 9 from four different junior and secondary schools in Warsaw, Poland, will participate in the study. The schools will differ in terms of socioeconomic, geographic localization. To assess creative performance, a Polish adaptation of the Torrance Test of Creative Thinking (TTCT) will be used. In order to select low and high SES individuals for SES grouping, a Polish adaptation of the MacArthur Scale of Subjective Social Status will be given to all participants. To control for individual differences in personality traits, a Polish adaptation of the Big Five Questionnaire for Children (BFQ-C) will be used. These measures will allow to compare the creative performance of children with different age and SES and eliminate confound variables. It is predicted that younger children, as well as high SES children, will score higher on the TTCT than older children, and low SES children. The findings of this study may provide useful insight into socioeconomic and age differences in creativity, as well as facilitating teacher’s adjustment of learning styles and emphasis on creativity in relation to the SES and age of their students.

Keywords: big five questionnaire for children, children, creativity, socioeconomic status, Torrance test of creative thinking, TTCT

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Authors: Jonathan Olusegun Famoroti, Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi, Mishelle Doorasamy

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This study offers an empirical investigation into some selected macroeconomic drivers of the monetary policy rate in member countries of the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), considering both internal and external variables. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to carry out the investigation between monetary policy and some macroeconomic variables in both the long-run and short-run relationship. The results suggest that the drivers of the policy rate in this zone, in the long run, include, among others, global oil price, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product, while in the short run, federal fund rate, trade openness, exchange rate, inflation rate, and gross domestic product are core determinants of the policy rate. Therefore, in order to ensure long-run stability in the policy rate among the members’ states, these drivers should be given closer consideration so that the trajectory for effective structure can be designed and fused into the economic structure and policy frameworks accordingly.

Keywords: monetary policy rate, macroeconomic variables, WAMZ, ARDL

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Authors: C. Soh, S. Muktar, C. M. Malata, J. R. Benson

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Introduction Reasons for requesting CPM include prevention of recurrence, peace of mind and moving on after breast cancer. Some women seek CPM as a delayed procedure but factors influencing this are poorly understood. Methods A retrospective analysis examined patients undergoing CPM as either an immediate or delayed procedure with or without breast reconstruction (BR) between January 2009 and December 2019. A cross-sectional survey based on validated questionnaires (5 point Likert scale) explored patients’ decision-making process in terms of timing of CPM and any BR. Results A total of 123 patients with unilateral breast cancer underwent CPM with 39 (32.5%) delayed procedures with or without BR. The response rate amongst patients receiving questionnaires (n=33) was 22/33 (66%). Within this delayed CPM cohort were three reconstructive scenarios 1) unilateral immediate BR with CPM (n=12); 2) delayed CPM with concomitant bilateral BR (n=22); 3) delayed bilateral BR after delayed CPM (n=3). Two patients had delayed CPM without BR. The most common reason for delayed CPM was to complete all cancer treatments (including radiotherapy) before surgery on the unaffected breast (score 2.91). The second reason was unavailability of genetic test results at the time of therapeutic mastectomy (score 2.64) whilst the third most cited reason was a subsequent change in family cancer history. Conclusion Factors for delayed CPM are patient-driven with few women spontaneously changing their mind having initially decided against immediate CPM for reasons also including surgical duration. CPM should be offered as a potentially delayed option with informed discussion of risks and benefits.

Keywords: Breast Cancer, CPM, Prophylactic, Rationale

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Authors: Diana Islam, Juan Fang, Vito Fanelli, Bing Han, Julie Khang, Jianfeng Wu, Arthur S. Slutsky, Haibo Zhang

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Introduction: MSC delivery in preclinical models of ARDS has demonstrated significant improvements in lung function and recovery from acute injury. However, the role of MSC delivery in ARDS associated pulmonary fibrosis is not well understood. Some animal studies using bleomycin, asbestos, and silica-induced pulmonary fibrosis show that MSC delivery can suppress fibrosis. While other animal studies using radiation induced pulmonary fibrosis, liver, and kidney fibrosis models show that MSC delivery can contribute to fibrosis. Hypothesis: The beneficial and deleterious effects of MSC in ARDS are modulated by the lung microenvironment at the time of MSC delivery. Methods: To induce ARDS a two-hit mouse model of Hydrochloric acid (HCl) aspiration (day 0) and mechanical ventilation (MV) (day 2) was used. HCl and injurious MV generated fibrosis within 14-28 days. 0.5x106 mouse MSCs were delivered (via both intratracheal and intravenous routes) either in the active inflammatory phase (day 2) or during the remodeling phase (day 14) of ARDS (mouse fibroblasts or PBS used as a control). Lung injury accessed using inflammation score and elastance measurement. Pulmonary fibrosis was accessed using histological score, tissue collagen level, and collagen expression. In addition alveolar epithelial (E) and mesenchymal (M) marker expression profile was also measured. All measurements were taken at day 2, 14, and 28. Results: MSC delivery 2 days after HCl exacerbated lung injury and fibrosis compared to HCl alone, while the day 14 delivery showed protective effects. However in the absence of HCl, MSC significantly reduced the injurious MV-induced fibrosis. HCl injury suppressed E markers and up-regulated M markers. MSC delivery 2 days after HCl further amplified M marker expression, indicating their role in myofibroblast proliferation/activation. While with 14-day delivery E marker up-regulation was observed indicating their role in epithelial restoration. Conclusions: Early MSC delivery can be protective of injurious MV. Late MSC delivery during repair phase may also aid in recovery. However, early MSC delivery during the exudative inflammatory phase of HCl-induced ARDS can result in pro-fibrotic profiles. It is critical to understand the interaction between MSC and the lung microenvironment before MSC-based therapies are utilized for ARDS.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), mesenchymal stem cells (MSC), hydrochloric acid (HCl), mechanical ventilation (MV)

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Authors: B. Bouadjemi, S. Bentata, W. Benstaali, A. Abbad

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The electronic and magnetic properties of the cubic praseodymium oxides perovskites PrMnO3 were calculated using the density functional theory (DFT) with both generalized gradient approximation (GGA) and GGA+U approaches, where U is on-site Coulomb interaction correction. The results show a half-metallic ferromagnetic ground state for PrMnO3 in GGA+U approached, while semi-metallic ferromagnetic character is observed in GGA. The results obtained, make the cubic PrMnO3 a promising candidate for application in spintronics.

Keywords: first-principles, electronic properties, transition metal, materials science

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Authors: Atoum Abdullah

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The purpose of this research is to determine the extent to which computer animation and narration affect students’ understanding of complex scientific concepts and improve their exam performance, this is compared to traditional lectures that include PowerPoints with texts and static images. A mixed-method design in data collection was used, including quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative data was collected using a pre and post-test method and a close-ended questionnaire. Qualitative data was collected through an open-ended questionnaire. A pre and posttest strategy was used to measure the level of students’ understanding with and without the use of animation. The test included multiple-choice questions to test factual knowledge, open-ended questions to test conceptual knowledge, and to label the diagram questions to test application knowledge. The results showed that students on average, performed significantly higher on the posttest as compared to the pretest on all areas of acquired knowledge. However, the increase in the posttest score with respect to the acquisition of conceptual and application knowledge was higher compared to the increase in the posttest score with respect to the acquisition of factual knowledge. This result demonstrates that animation is more beneficial when acquiring deeper, conceptual, and cognitive knowledge than when only factual knowledge is acquired.

Keywords: animation, narration, science, teaching

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Authors: Jansirani Natarajan, Mickael Antoinne Joseph

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The COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted face-to-face education and forced universities into an emergency remote teaching curriculum over a short duration. This abrupt transition in the Spring 2020 semester left both faculty and students without proper preparation for continuing higher education in an online environment. Online learning took place in different formats, including fully synchronous, fully asynchronous, and blended in our university through the e-learning platform MOODLE. Studies have shown that students’ engagement, is a critical factor for optimal online teaching. Very few studies have assessed online engagement with ERT during the COVID-19 pandemic. Purpose: Therefore, this study, sought to understand how the sudden transition to emergency remote teaching impacted nursing students’ engagement with online courses in a Middle Eastern public university. Method: A cross-sectional descriptive research design was adopted in this study. Data were collected through a self-reported online survey using Dixon’s online students’ engagement questionnaire from a sample of 177 nursing students after the ERT learning semester. Results The maximum possible engagement score was 95, and the maximum scores in the domains of skills engagement, emotional engagement, participation engagement, and performance engagement were 30, 25, 30, and 10 respectively. Dixson (2010) noted that a mean item score of ≥3.5 (total score of ≥66.5) represents a highly engaged student. The majority of the participants were females (71.8%) and 84.2% were regular BSN students. Most of them (32.2%) were second-year students and 52% had a CGPA between 2 and 3. Most participants (56.5%) had low engagement scores with ERT learning during the COVID lockdown. Among the four engagement domains, 78% had low engagement scores for the participation domain. There was no significant association found between the engagement and the demographic characteristics of the participants. Conclusion The findings supported the importance of engaging students in all four categories skill, emotional, performance, and participation. Based on the results, training sessions were organized for faculty on various strategies for engaging nursing students in all domains by using the facilities available in the MOODLE (online e-learning platform). It added value as a dashboard of information regarding ERT for the administrators and nurse educators to introduce numerous active learning strategies to improve the quality of teaching and learning of nursing students in the University.

Keywords: engagement, perception, emergency remote learning, COVID-19

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Authors: Kurotimi M. Fems, Francis D. W. Poazi, Helen Opigo

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Entrepreneurship education and graduate entrepreneurship have taken centre stage in many countries as a 21st century strategy for economic growth and development. Entrepreneurship education has been viewed as a pre-requisite tool for a more effective and successful business operation. The purpose of this study is to ascertain if entrepreneurship education is a foundational requirement for graduate entrepreneurial engagement or, if other factors such as personality trait, need for achievement, situational circumstances or experience and competence played a more vital role in stimulating graduate entrepreneurial engagement. The scope of the research study is entrepreneurs within Yenagoa metropolis in Bayelsa state, Nigeria. The sample target is graduates engaged in entrepreneurship activities (graduates who own and run businesses). Stratified sampling technique was used and 101 responses were gotten from a total of 300 questionnaires issued. Bar chart, tables, and percentages were used to analyze the data collected. Findings: The findings revealed that personality traits, situational circumstance, need for achievement and experience/competence were the foundational factors stimulating graduate entrepreneurs to engage in entrepreneurial pursuits. Of all, personality trait showed the highest score with 73 (73%) out of 101 entrepreneurs agreeing. Experience/Competence and situational circumstances followed behind with 66 (65%) and 63 (62.4%) respectively. Entrepreneurship education revealed the least score with 33 (32.3%) out of 101 participating entrepreneurs. All hope, however, is not lost, as this shows that something can be done to increase the impact of entrepreneurship education on graduate entrepreneurship.

Keywords: creative destruction, entrepreneurs, entrepreneurship education, graduate entrepreneurship, pre-requisite

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Authors: T. Hari Prasath, P. Ithaya Rani

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In the world of visual technology, recognizing emotions from the face images is a challenging task. Several related methods have not utilized the dynamic facial features effectively for high performance. This paper proposes a method for emotions recognition using dynamic facial features with high performance. Initially, local features are captured by Gabor filter with different scale and orientations in each frame for finding the position and scale of face part from different backgrounds. The Gabor features are sent to the ensemble classifier for detecting Gabor facial features. The region of dynamic features is captured from the Gabor facial features in the consecutive frames which represent the dynamic variations of facial appearances. In each region of dynamic features is normalized using Z-score normalization method which is further encoded into binary pattern features with the help of threshold values. The binary features are passed to Multi-class AdaBoost classifier algorithm with the well-trained database contain happiness, sadness, surprise, fear, anger, disgust, and neutral expressions to classify the discriminative dynamic features for emotions recognition. The developed method is deployed on the Ryerson Multimedia Research Lab and Cohn-Kanade databases and they show significant performance improvement owing to their dynamic features when compared with the existing methods.

Keywords: detecting face, Gabor filter, multi-class AdaBoost classifier, Z-score normalization

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Authors: Thi Thi Zin, Pyke Tin, Ikuo Kobayashi, Yoichiro Horii

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Today dairy farm experts and farmers have well recognized the importance of dairy cow Body Condition Score (BCS) since these scores can be used to optimize milk production, managing feeding system and as an indicator for abnormality in health even can be utilized to manage for having healthy calving times and process. In tradition, BCS measures are done by animal experts or trained technicians based on visual observations focusing on pin bones, pin, thurl and hook area, tail heads shapes, hook angles and short and long ribs. Since the traditional technique is very manual and subjective, the results can lead to different scores as well as not cost effective. Thus this paper proposes an algebraic geometric imaging approach for an automatic dairy cow BCS system. The proposed system consists of three functional modules. In the first module, significant landmarks or anatomical points from the cow image region are automatically extracted by using image processing techniques. To be specific, there are 23 anatomical points in the regions of ribs, hook bones, pin bone, thurl and tail head. These points are extracted by using block region based vertical and horizontal histogram methods. According to animal experts, the body condition scores depend mainly on the shape structure these regions. Therefore the second module will investigate some algebraic and geometric properties of the extracted anatomical points. Specifically, the second order polynomial regression is employed to a subset of anatomical points to produce the regression coefficients which are to be utilized as a part of feature vector in scoring process. In addition, the angles at thurl, pin, tail head and hook bone area are computed to extend the feature vector. Finally, in the third module, the extracted feature vectors are trained by using Markov Classification process to assign BCS for individual cows. Then the assigned BCS are revised by using multiple regression method to produce the final BCS score for dairy cows. In order to confirm the validity of proposed method, a monitoring video camera is set up at the milk rotary parlor to take top view images of cows. The proposed method extracts the key anatomical points and the corresponding feature vectors for each individual cows. Then the multiple regression calculator and Markov Chain Classification process are utilized to produce the estimated body condition score for each cow. The experimental results tested on 100 dairy cows from self-collected dataset and public bench mark dataset show very promising with accuracy of 98%.

Keywords: algebraic geometric imaging approach, body condition score, Markov classification, polynomial regression

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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Groundwater inflow to the tunnels is one of the most important problems in tunneling operation. The objective of this study is the investigation of model dimension effects on tunnel inflow assessment in discontinuous rock masses using numerical modeling. In the numerical simulation, the model dimension has an important role in prediction of water inflow rate. When the model dimension is very small, due to low distance to the tunnel border, the model boundary conditions affect the estimated amount of groundwater flow into the tunnel and results show a very high inflow to tunnel. Hence, in this study, the two-dimensional universal distinct element code (UDEC) used and the impact of different model parameters, such as tunnel radius, joint spacing, horizontal and vertical model domain extent has been evaluated. Results show that the model domain extent is a function of the most significant parameters, which are tunnel radius and joint spacing.

Keywords: water inflow, tunnel, discontinues rock, numerical simulation

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Authors: Ria Forner

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Introduction: Due to increases in the SNR at 7T and above, it becomes more favourable to make use of X-nuclear imaging. Integrated body coils tuned to 120MHz for 31P, 79MHz for 23Na, and 75 MHz for 13C at 7T were simulated with a human male, female, or child body model to assess strategies of use for metabolic MR imaging in the body. Methods: B1 and SAR efficiencies in the heart, liver, spleen, and kidneys were assessed using numerical simulations over the three frequencies with phase shimming. Results: B1+ efficiency is highly variable over the different organs, particularly for the highest frequency; however, local SAR efficiency remains relatively constant over the frequencies in all subjects. Although the optimal phase settings vary, one generic phase setting can be identified for each frequency at which the penalty in B1+ is at a max of 10%. Discussion: The simulations provide practical strategies for power optimization, B1 management, and maintaining safety. As expected, the B1 field is similar at 75MHz and 79MHz, but reduced at 120MHz. However, the B1 remains relatively constant when normalised by the square root of the peak local SAR. This is in contradiction to generalized SAR considerations of 1H MRI at different field strengths, which is defined by global SAR instead. Conclusion: Although the B1 decreases with frequency, SAR efficiency remains constant throughout the investigated frequency range. It is possible to shim the body coil to obtain a maximum of 10% extra B1+ in a specific organ in a body when compared to a generic setting.

Keywords: birdcage, multi-nuclear, B1 shimming, 7 Tesla MRI, liver, kidneys, heart, spleen

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Authors: Bidyadhar Dehury, Sanjay Kumar Mohanty

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According to the Right to Education Act of India, education is the fundamental right of all children of age group 6-14 year irrespective of their status. Using the unit level data from India Human Development Survey (IHDS), we tried to understand the inter-relationship between the level of poverty and the academic performance of the children aged 8-11 years. The level of multidimensional poverty is measured using five dimensions and 10 indicators using Alkire-Foster approach. The weighted deprivation score was obtained by giving equal weight to each dimension and indicators within the dimension. The weighted deprivation score varies from 0 to 1 and grouped into four categories as non-poor, vulnerable, multidimensional poor and sever multidimensional poor. The academic performance index was measured using three variables reading skills, math skills and writing skills using PCA. The bivariate and multivariate analysis was used in the analysis. The outcome variable was ordinal. So the predicted probabilities were calculated using the ordinal logistic regression. The predicted probabilities of good academic performance index was 0.202 if the child was sever multidimensional poor, 0.235 if the child was multidimensional poor, 0.264 if the child was vulnerable, and 0.316 if the child was non-poor. Hence, if the level of poverty among the children decreases from sever multidimensional poor to non-poor, the probability of good academic performance increases.

Keywords: multidimensional poverty, academic performance index, reading skills, math skills, writing skills, India

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Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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Authors: Ruchika Sharma

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In the past decade, there has been an explosion of research that has examined children’s understanding of TV advertisements and its persuasive intent, socialization of child consumer and child psychology. However, it is evident from the literature review that no studies in this area have covered advertising messages and its impact on children’s brand recall and ad recognition. Copywriters use various creative devices to lure the consumers and very impressionable consumers such as children face far more drastic effects of these creative ways of persuasion. On the basis of Piaget’s theory of cognitive development as a theoretical basis for predicting/understanding children’s response and understanding, a quasi-experiment was carried out for the study, that manipulated measurement timing and advertising messages (familiar vs. unfamiliar) keeping gender and age group as two prominent factors. This study also examines children’s understanding of Advertisements and its elements, predominantly - Language, keeping in view Fishbein’s model. Study revealed significant associations between above mentioned factors and children’s brand recall and ad identification. Further, to test the reliability of the findings on larger sample, bootstrap simulation technique was used. The simulation results are in accordance with the findings of experiment, suggesting that the conclusions obtained from the study can be generalized for entire children’s (as consumers) market in India.

Keywords: advertising, brand recall, cognitive development, preferences

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Authors: Zeytu G. Asfaw, Serkalem K. Abrha, Demisew G. Degefu

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Background: HIV/AIDS remains a major public health problem in Ethiopia and heavily affecting people of productive and reproductive age. We aimed to compare the performance of Parametric Survival Analysis and Bayesian Survival Analysis using simulations and in a real dataset application focused on determining predictors of HIV patient survival. Methods: A Parametric Survival Models - Exponential, Weibull, Log-normal, Log-logistic, Gompertz and Generalized gamma distributions were considered. Simulation study was carried out with two different algorithms that were informative and noninformative priors. A retrospective cohort study was implemented for HIV infected patients under Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in Alamata General Hospital, North Ethiopia. Results: A total of 320 HIV patients were included in the study where 52.19% females and 47.81% males. According to Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for the two sex groups, females has shown better survival time in comparison with their male counterparts. The median survival time of HIV patients was 79 months. During the follow-up period 89 (27.81%) deaths and 231 (72.19%) censored individuals registered. The average baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells count for HIV/AIDS patients were 126.01 but after a three-year antiretroviral therapy follow-up the average cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells counts were 305.74, which was quite encouraging. Age, functional status, tuberculosis screen, past opportunistic infection, baseline cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4) cells, World Health Organization clinical stage, sex, marital status, employment status, occupation type, baseline weight were found statistically significant factors for longer survival of HIV patients. The standard error of all covariate in Bayesian log-normal survival model is less than the classical one. Hence, Bayesian survival analysis showed better performance than classical parametric survival analysis, when subjective data analysis was performed by considering expert opinions and historical knowledge about the parameters. Conclusions: Thus, HIV/AIDS patient mortality rate could be reduced through timely antiretroviral therapy with special care on the potential factors. Moreover, Bayesian log-normal survival model was preferable than the classical log-normal survival model for determining predictors of HIV patients survival.

Keywords: antiretroviral therapy (ART), Bayesian analysis, HIV, log-normal, parametric survival models

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Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

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Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

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Authors: Geetakshi Arora, Danish Malhotra

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Diabetic wounds are serious health issues and often fail to heal, leading to limb amputation that makes the life of the patient miserable. Delayed wound healing has been characterized by an increase in matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9). Thus research throughout the world has been going on to develop selective MMP-9 inhibitors for aiding diabetic wound healing. Bioactive constituents from natural sources always served as potential leads in drug development with high rates of success. Considering the need for novel selective MMP-9 inhibitors and the importance of natural bioactive compounds in drug development, we have screened a library of bioactive constituents from plant sources that were effective in diabetic wound healing on human MMP-9 (hMMP-9) using molecular docking studies. Screened constituents are ranked according to their dock score, ∆G value (binding affinity), and Ligand efficiency evaluated from FleXX docking and Hyde scoring modules available with drug designing platform LeadIT. Rhamnocitrin showed the highest correlation between dock score, ∆G value (binding affinity), and Ligand efficiency was further explored for binding interactions with hMMP-9. The overall study suggest that Rhamnocitrin is sufficiently decorated with both hydrophilic and hydrophobic substitutions that perfectly block hMMP-9 and act as a potential lead in the design and development of selective hMMP-9 inhibitors.

Keywords: MMP-9, diabetic wound, molecular docking, phytoconstituents

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Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi

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Introduction: Inactivity is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. According to the study prevalence of inactivity in Iran, about 67.5% and in the staff, and especially nurses, are similar. The inflammatory index (HS-CRP) is highly predictive of the progression of these diseases. Physical activity education is very important in preventing these diseases. One of the modern educational methods is web-based theory-based education. Methods: This is a semi-experimental interventional study which was conducted in Isfahan and Kurdistan universities of medical sciences in two stages. A cross-sectional study was done to determine the status of physical activity and its predictive factors. Then, intervention was performed, and six months later the data were retrieved. The data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, an integrative model of behavior prediction constructs, a standard physical activity questionnaire and (HS-CRP) test. Data were analyzed by SPSS software. Results: Physical activity was low in 66.6% of nurses, 25.4% were moderate and 8% severe. According to Pearson correlation matrix, the highest correlation was found between behavioral intention and skill structures (0.553**), subjective norms (0.222**) and self-efficacy (0.198**). The relationship between age and physical activity in the first study was reverse and significant. After intervention, there was a significant change in attitudes, self-efficacy, skill and behavioral intention in the intervention group. This change was significant in attitudes, self-efficacy and environmental conditions of the control group. HS-CRP index decreased significantly after intervention in both groups, but there was not a significant relationship between inflammatory index and physical activity score. The change in physical activity level was significant only in the control group. Conclusion: Despite the effect of educational intervention on attitude, self-efficacy, skill, and behavioral intention, the results showed that if factors such as environmental factors are not corrected, training and changing structures cannot lead to physical activity behavior. On the other hand, no correlation between physical activity and HS-CRP showed that this index can be influenced by other factors, and this should be considered in any intervention to reduce the HS-CRP index.

Keywords: HS-CRP, integrative model of behavior prediction, physical activity, nurses, web-based education

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Authors: Y. T. Gee, I. N. Umar

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Students’ achievement and motivation in learning English in Malaysia is a worrying trend as it is lagging behind several other countries in Asia. Thus, necessary actions have to be taken by the parties concerned to overcome this problem. The purpose of this research was to study the effects of drill and practice courseware on students’ achievement and motivation in learning English language. A multimedia courseware was developed for this purpose. The independent variable was the drill and practice courseware while the dependent variables were the students’ achievement and motivation. Their achievement was measured using pre-test and post-test scores, while motivation was measured using a questionnaire adapted from Keller’s (1979) Instructional Materials Motivation Scale. A total of 60 students from three vernacular primary schools in a northern state in Malaysia were randomly selected in this study. The findings indicate: (1) a significant difference between the students’ pre-test and post-test scores after using the courseware, (2) no significant difference in the achievement score between male and female students after using the courseware, (3) a significant difference in motivation score between the female and the male students, and (4) while the female students scored significantly higher than the male students in the aspects of relevance, confidence and satisfaction, no significant difference in terms of attention was observed between them. Overall, the findings clearly indicate that although the female students are significantly more motivated than their male students, they are equally good in terms of achievement after learning from the courseware. Through this study, the drill and practice courseware is proven to influence the students’ learning and motivation.

Keywords: courseware, drill and practice, English learning, motivation

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Authors: Amal Abo El-Maaty, Amira Mohamed, Nashwa Abu-Aita, Hisham Morgan

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For estimating markers of overweight or obesity of brood mares used for riding and training, 17 mares of different body conditions were subjected to blood sampling and ultrasound examination to measure rump fat thickness and monitor ovulation for six consecutive weeks. Also length (L), heart girth (G) and withers height (H) were measured to estimate body weight (BW), body fat %, body fat mass (BFM) and body mass index (BMI). Mares were classified into three groups according to both body condition score (BCS) and rump back fat (BF). Overweight mares (O) were having BCS > 7 and BF thickness >7mm, moderate body condition (M) mares were having BCS >3and ≤7and BF <3and <7mm, and emaciated mares (E) were having BCS ≤3 and BF ≤3mm. glucose, triglycerides, nitric oxide, ovarian, thyroid, insulin, insulin like growth factor-I (IGF-1), and leptin hormones were measured. Results revealed that BCS, G, L, L*G*H, BW, BF, fat %, BFM were significantly (P<0.0001) decreasing linearly from O to E. T4 concentrations of E were significantly high (P=0.04) compared to M and O but T3 concentrations tended to decrease in E (P>0.05). Insulin and IGF-1 concentrations tended to be high in O (P>0.05) and decrease with the decrease of body condition. M had (P=0.007) the highest leptin, but E mares had the lowest P4 concentrations (P=0.01). Concentrations of glucose and NO decreased with the decrease of BCS and BF but triglycerides of O were insignificantly high. In conclusion, exercise could prevent the development of metabolic syndrome in horses and back fat and morphometric measurements were the easiest and simple assessment of overweight and deviation to obesity.

Keywords: body condition score, insulin, leptin, mares, rump fat

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Nataliia Dzerovych, Larysa Martynyuk, Tetiana Kovtun

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Obesity and osteoporosis are the two diseases whose increasing prevalence and high impact on the global morbidity and mortality, during the two recent decades, have gained a status of major health threats worldwide. Obesity purports to affect the bone metabolism through complex mechanisms. Debated data on the connection between the bone mineral density and fracture prevalence in the obese patients are widely presented in literature. There is evidence that the correlation of weight and fracture risk is site-specific. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Bone Mineral Density (BMD) and Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) in the obese Ukrainian women. We examined 1025 40-89-year-old women, divided them into the groups according to their body mass index: Group a included 360 women with obesity whose BMI was ≥30 kg/m2, and Group B – 665 women with no obesity and BMI of < 30 kg/m2. The BMD of total body, lumbar spine at the site L1-L4, femur and forearm were measured by DXA (Prodigy, GEHC Lunar, Madison, WI, USA). The TBS of L1-L4 was assessed by means of TBS iNsight® software installed on our DXA machine (product of Med-Imaps, Pessac, France). In general, obese women had a significantly higher BMD of lumbar spine, femoral neck, proximal femur, total body, and ultradistal forearm (p<0.001) in comparison with women without obesity. The TBS of L1-L4 was significantly lower in obese women compared to non-obese women (p<0.001). The BMD of lumbar spine, femoral neck and total body differed to a significant extent in women of 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70-79 years (p<0.05). At same time, in women aged 80-89 years the BMD of lumbar spine (p=0.09), femoral neck (p=0.22) and total body (p=0.06) barely differed. The BMD of ultradistal forearm was significantly higher in women of all age groups (p<0.05). The TBS of L1-L4 in all the age groups tended to reveal the lower parameters in obese women compared with the non-obese; however, those data were not statistically significant. By contrast, a significant positive correlation was observed between the fat mass and the BMD at different sites. The correlation between the fat mass and TBS of L1-L4 was also significant, although negative. Women with vertebral fractures had a significantly lower body weight, body mass index and total body fat mass in comparison with women without vertebral fractures in their anamnesis. In obese women the frequency of vertebral fractures was 27%, while in women without obesity – 57%.

Keywords: obesity, trabecular bone score, bone mineral density, women

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Authors: Harshit Mittal, Neeraj Garg

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Hand symbol recognition is a pivotal component in the domain of computer vision, with far-reaching applications spanning sign language interpretation, human-computer interaction, and accessibility. This research paper discusses the approach with the integration of the Canny Edge algorithm and convolutional neural network. The significance of this study lies in its potential to enhance communication and accessibility for individuals with hearing impairments or those engaged in gesture-based interactions with technology. In the experiment mentioned, the data is manually collected by the authors from the webcam using Python codes, to increase the dataset augmentation, is applied to original images, which makes the model more compatible and advanced. Further, the dataset of about 6000 coloured images distributed equally in 5 classes (i.e., 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) are pre-processed first to gray images and then by the Canny Edge algorithm with threshold 1 and 2 as 150 each. After successful data building, this data is trained on the Convolutional Neural Network model, giving accuracy: 0.97834, precision: 0.97841, recall: 0.9783, and F1 score: 0.97832. For user purposes, a block of codes is built in Python to enable a window for hand symbol recognition. This research, at its core, seeks to advance the field of computer vision by providing an advanced perspective on hand sign recognition. By leveraging the capabilities of the Canny Edge algorithm and convolutional neural network, this study contributes to the ongoing efforts to create more accurate, efficient, and accessible solutions for individuals with diverse communication needs.

Keywords: hand symbol recognition, computer vision, Canny edge algorithm, convolutional neural network

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Authors: Mohammed Asiri, Saleh Alsuwayt, Mohammed Bin Mugren, Abdulmalik Almufarrih, Tariq Alotaibi, Saad Almodameg

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Background: End-stage renal disease is a major public health concern with high incidence and mortality rate. Most of ESRD patients are on hemodialysis therapy which is a long-term treatment that disturbs patients’ lifestyle. As a result, he will be susceptible to develop psychiatric disorders like anxiety that may direct him to non-compliance on physician instructions and hemodialysis therapy. Although there are studies conducted on psychiatric issues in hemodialysis patients, but few studies focused on the effect of anxiety disorder and the patient’s compliance. Hence, we are interested in determining the prevalence of anxiety disorder among hemodialysis patients in Saudi Arabia, as well as in defining the correlation between anxiety disorder and compliance on physician instructions and hemodialysis therapy. We hypothesize that our study will show a higher prevalence of anxiety in hemodialysis patients than in general population. Also, we expect the anxiety to have a negative impact on their compliance. Methodology: We used a cross-sectional study design carried out at dialysis unit of four major hospitals in Riyadh, KSA. We interviewed 235 End Stage Renal Disease male and female patients who are on hemodialysis. We divided the patients into two categories according to their compliance. we used modified general questionnaire to get their demographic data, then we used a psychometric response scale called visual analog scale (VAS) to assess patient’s compliance to hemodialysis and physician’s instructions. Also, we used the Arabic validated version of the hospital anxiety and depression scale (HAD scale) used mainly for anxiety assessment. Results: The overall response rate was 54%. Respondents included 147 (62.6%) males and 88 (37.4%) females. The prevalence of anxiety among hemodialysis patients is 13.3%. According to visual analog scale, we found that 189 compliant patients and 45 non-compliant patients. For HAD scale, the mean ± standard deviation of the total score for females was (4.44 ± 4.7) and it’s higher than males which was 2.65 ± 3.08 (P-value= 0.002). The mean ± standard deviation of HAD score in the non-compliant group was (5.88  4.88) and it was higher than the compliant group (2.7  3.32) (P-value= 0.004). Among non-complaint group, 33.3% of anxious patients were males and 66.6% were females. There was a negative correlation between HAD score of anxiety and visual analog scale (R= - 0.285). Conclusion: We conclude that there is a high prevalence of anxiety among patients with End Stage Renal Disease that was higher in females with association of non-compliance to physician’s instructions and hemodialysis therapy.

Keywords: anxiety, end-stage renal disease, renal failure, anxiety disorder

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Authors: Supriadi Hardianto, Aditya Daniswara

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Today's workplace, flooded by millennial Generation or known also as Generation Y. A common problem that faced by the company towards Gen Y is a high turnover rate, attitudes problem, communication style, and different work style than the older generation. This is common in private sector. The objective of this study is to get a better understanding of the Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace. The subject of this study is focusing on 430 respondent of Gen Y which age between 20 – 35 years old who works for a private company. The Questionnaire as primary data source captured 9 aspects of career attitude based on Career Attitudes Strategy Inventory (CASI). This Survey distributes randomly among Gen Y in the IT Industry (125 Respondent) and Manufacture Company (305 Respondent). A Random deep interview was conducted to get the better understanding of the etiology of their primary obstacles. The study showed that most of Indonesia Gen Y have a moderate score on Job satisfaction but in the other aspects, Gen Y has the lowest score on Skill Development, Career Worries, Risk-Taking Style, Dominant Style, Work Involvement, Geographical Barrier, Interpersonal Abuse, and Family Commitment. The top 5 obstacles outside that 9 aspects that faced by Gen Y are 1. Lower communication & networking support; 2. Self-confidence issues; 3. Financial Problem; 4. Emotional issues; 5. Age. We also found that parent perspective toward the way they are nurturing their child are not aligned with their child’s real life. This research fundamentally helps the organization and other Gen Y’s Stakeholders to have a better understanding of Gen Y Career Attitude at the workplace.

Keywords: career attitudes, CASI, Gen Y, career attitude at workplace

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Authors: Jae-Hyun Choi, Sung-Soo Bae, Sangyoung Yoon, Hong-Ku Yun, Jiyoung Kwahk

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This study was conducted to investigate the effect of ocular dominance on recognition performance using a single-lens smart display designed for cycling. A total of 36 bicycle riders who have been cycling consistently were recruited and participated in the experiment. The participants were asked to perform tasks riding a bicycle on a stationary stand for safety reasons. Independent variables of interest include ocular dominance, bike usage, age group, and information layout. Recognition time (i.e., the time required to identify specific information measured with an eye-tracker), error rate (i.e. false answer or failure to identify the information in 5 seconds), and user preference scores were measured and statistical tests were conducted to identify significant results. Recognition time and error ratio showed significant difference by ocular dominance factor, while the preference score did not. Recognition time was faster when the single-lens see-through display on the dominant eye (average 1.12sec) than on the non-dominant eye (average 1.38sec). Error ratio of the information recognition task was significantly lower when the see-through display was worn on the dominant eye (average 4.86%) than on the non-dominant eye (average 14.04%). The interaction effect of ocular dominance and age group was significant with respect to recognition time and error ratio. The recognition time of the users in their 40s was significantly longer than the other age groups when the display was placed on the non-dominant eye, while no difference was observed on the dominant eye. Error ratio also showed the same pattern. Although no difference was observed for the main effect of ocular dominance and bike usage, the interaction effect between the two variables was significant with respect to preference score. Preference score of daily bike users was higher when the display was placed on the dominant eye, whereas participants who use bikes for leisure purposes showed the opposite preference patterns. It was found more effective and efficient to wear a see-through display on the dominant eye than on the non-dominant eye, although user preference was not affected by ocular dominance. It is recommended to wear a see-through display on the dominant eye since it is safer by helping the user recognize the presented information faster and more accurately, even if the user may not notice the difference.

Keywords: eye tracking, information recognition, ocular dominance, smart headware, wearable device

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Authors: R. B. Knudsen, O. T. Rasmussen, R. A. Alphinas

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The reason for conducting this research is to develop an algorithm that is capable of classifying news articles from the automobile industry, according to the competitive actions that they entail, with the use of Text Mining (TM) methods. It is needed to test how to properly preprocess the data for this research by preparing pipelines which fits each algorithm the best. The pipelines are tested along with nine different classification algorithms in the realm of regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Preliminary testing for identifying the optimal pipelines and algorithms resulted in the selection of two algorithms with two different pipelines. The two algorithms are Logistic Regression (LR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). These algorithms are optimized further, where several parameters of each algorithm are tested. The best result is achieved with the ANN. The final model yields an accuracy of 0.79, a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.78, and an F1 score of 0.76. By removing three of the classes that created noise, the final algorithm is capable of reaching an accuracy of 94%.

Keywords: Artificial Neural network, Competitive dynamics, Logistic Regression, Text classification, Text mining

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