Search results for: credit risk

Authors: Petar Dobrev

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There is no agreed-upon definition of firm quality. While profitability and stock performance often qualify as popular proxies of quality, in this project, we aim to identify quality without relying on a firm’s financial statements or stock returns as selection criteria. Instead, we use firm-level data on management practices across small to medium-sized U.S. manufacturing firms from the World Management Survey (WMS) to measure firm quality. Each firm in the WMS dataset is assigned a mean management score from 0 to 5, with higher scores identifying better-managed firms. This management score serves as our proxy for firm quality and is the sole criteria we use to separate firms into portfolios comprised of high-quality and low-quality firms. We define high-quality (low-quality) firms as those firms with a management score of one standard deviation above (below) the mean. To study whether this proxy for firm quality can identify better-performing firms, we link this data to Compustat and The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to obtain firm-level data on financial performance and monthly stock returns, respectively. We find that from 1999 to 2019 (our sample data period), firms in the high-quality portfolio are consistently more profitable — higher operating profitability and return on equity compared to low-quality firms. In addition, high-quality firms also exhibit a lower risk of bankruptcy — a higher Altman Z-score. Next, we test whether the stocks of the firms in the high-quality portfolio earn superior risk-adjusted excess returns. We regress the monthly excess returns on each portfolio on the Fama-French 3-factor, 4-factor, and 5-factor models, the betting-against-beta factor, and the quality-minus-junk factor. We find no statistically significant differences in excess returns between both portfolios, suggesting that stocks of high-quality (well managed) firms do not earn superior risk-adjusted returns compared to low-quality (poorly managed) firms. In short, our proxy for firm quality, the WMS management score, can identify firms with superior financial performance (higher profitability and reduced risk of bankruptcy). However, our management proxy cannot identify stocks that earn superior risk-adjusted returns, suggesting no statistically significant relationship between managerial quality and stock performance.

Keywords: excess stock returns, management, profitability, quality

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Authors: Richard McGregor, Carmen Reaiche, Stephen Boyle

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Cyber threats are a relatively recent phenomenon and offer cyber insurers a dynamic and intelligent peril. As individuals en mass become increasingly digitally dependent, Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) offers an attractive option to mitigate cyber risk at a personal level. This abstract proposes a literature review that conceptualises a framework for siting Personal Cyber Insurance (PCI) within the context of cyberspace. The lack of empirical research within this domain demonstrates an immediate need to define the scope of PCI to allow cyber insurers to understand personal cyber risk threats and vectors, customer awareness, capabilities, and their associated needs. Additionally, this will allow cyber insurers to conceptualise appropriate frameworks allowing effective management and distribution of PCI products and services within a landscape often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. Cyberspace has provided significant improvement to the quality of social connectivity and productivity during past decades and allowed enormous capability uplift of information sharing and communication between people and communities. Conversely, personal digital dependency furnish ample opportunities for adverse cyber events such as data breaches and cyber-attacksthus introducing a continuous and insidious threat of omnipresent cyber risk–particularly since the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and wide-spread adoption of ‘work-from-home’ practices. Recognition of escalating inter-dependencies, vulnerabilities and inadequate personal cyber behaviours have prompted efforts by businesses and individuals alike to investigate strategies and tactics to mitigate cyber risk – of which cyber insurance is a viable, cost-effective option. It is argued that, ceteris parabus, the nature of cyberspace intrinsically provides characteristic peculiarities that pose significant and bespoke challenges to cyber insurers, often in-congruent with risk attributes commonly associated with traditional personal line insurance products. These challenges include (inter alia) a paucity of historical claim/loss data for underwriting and pricing purposes, interdependencies of cyber architecture promoting high correlation of cyber risk, difficulties in evaluating cyber risk, intangibility of risk assets (such as data, reputation), lack of standardisation across the industry, high and undetermined tail risks, and moral hazard among others. This study proposes a thematic overview of the literature deemed necessary to conceptualise the challenges to issuing personal cyber coverage. There is an evident absence of empirical research appertaining to PCI and the design of operational business models for this business domain, especially qualitative initiatives that (1) attempt to define the scope of the peril, (2) secure an understanding of the needs of both cyber insurer and customer, and (3) to identify elements pivotal to effective management and profitable distribution of PCI - leading to an argument proposed by the author that postulates that the traditional general insurance customer journey and business model are ill-suited for the lineaments of cyberspace. The findings of the review confirm significant gaps in contemporary research within the domain of personal cyber insurance.

Keywords: cyberspace, personal cyber risk, personal cyber insurance, customer journey, business model

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Authors: Hengki Eko Putra, Dennish Ari Putro, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Edi Riawan, Junnaedhi Dewa Gede, Aditia Rojali, Fariza Dian Prasetyo, Yudhistira Satya Pribadi, Dita Fatria Andarini, Mila Khaerunisa, Raditya Hanung Prakoswa

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Catastrophe risk management can only be done if we are able to calculate the exposed risks. Jakarta is an important city economically, socially, and politically and in the same time exposed to severe floods. On the other hand, flood risk calculation is still very limited in the area. This study has calculated the risk of flooding for Jakarta using 2-Dimensional Model ANUGA. 2-Dimensional model ANUGA and 1-Dimensional Model HEC-RAS are used to calculate the risk of flooding from 13 major rivers in Jakarta. ANUGA can simulate physical and dynamical processes between the streamflow against river geometry and land cover to produce a 1-meter resolution inundation map. The value of streamflow as an input for the model obtained from hydrological analysis on rainfall data using hydrologic model HEC-HMS. The probabilistic streamflow derived from probabilistic rainfall using statistical distribution Log-Pearson III, Normal and Gumbel, through compatibility test using Chi Square and Smirnov-Kolmogorov. Flood event on 2007 is used as a comparison to evaluate the accuracy of model output. Property damage estimations were calculated based on flood depth for 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years return period against housing value data from the BPS-Statistics Indonesia, Centre for Research and Development of Housing and Settlements, Ministry of Public Work Indonesia. The vulnerability factor was derived from flood insurance claim. Jakarta's flood loss estimation for the return period of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years, respectively are Rp 1.30 t; Rp 16.18 t; Rp 16.85 t; Rp 21.21 t; Rp 24.32 t; and Rp 24.67 t of the total value of building Rp 434.43 t.

Keywords: 2D hydrodynamic model, ANUGA, flood, flood modeling

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Authors: Marcelo Jesus Kato Avila, Joao Da Costa Pantoja

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Differential settlement of foundations is a serious pathology in buildings that put at risk lives and property. A common reason for the occurrence of this specific pathology in central Brazil is the presence of collapsible clay, a typical soil in the region. In this study, the foundation of a condemned building erected above this soil is analyzed. The aim is to prevent problems in new constructions, to predict which buildings may be subjected to damages, and to make possible a more precise treatment in less advanced differential settlements observed in the buildings of the vicinity, which includes a hospital, a Military School, an indoor sporting arena, the Police Academy, and the Military Police Headquarters. The methodology consists of visual inspection, photographic report of the main pathologies, analysis of the existing foundations, determination of the soil properties, the study of the cracking level and assessment of structural failure risk of the building. The findings show that the presence of water weaken the soil structure on which the foundation rest, being the main cause of the pathologic settlement, indicating that even in a one store building it was necessary to consider deeper digging, other categories of foundations, and more elaborated and detailed foundation plans when the soil presents this behavior.

Keywords: building cracks, collapsible clay, differential settlement, structural failure risk

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Authors: S. J. Hachar

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The goal of this paper is to provide educators an overview of international practices supporting young learners, arming us with adequate information to lead effective change. We will report on research and observations of Service Learning Projects conducted by one South Texas University. The intent of the paper is also to provide readers an overview of service learning in the preparation of teacher candidates pursuing a Bachelor of Science in Elementary Education. The objective of noting the efficiency and effectiveness of programs leading to literacy and oral fluency in a native language and second language will be discussed. This paper also highlights experiential learning for academic credit that combines community service with student learning. Six weeks of visits to a variety of community sites, making personal observations with faculty members, conducting extensive interviews with parents and key personnel at all sites will be discussed. The culminating Service Learning Expo will be reported as well.

Keywords: elementary education, junior achievement, service learning

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Authors: Destriyanti Sugiarti, Ririn A Wulandari

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Background: Malaria disease was widespread in many countries, both tropical and sub-tropical. Tasikmalaya is a region that experienced an increase in malaria cases over the last 5 years and highest in 2013, a total of 168 positive cases of malaria. Tasikmalaya region consists of coastal and mountain areas, it has a potential place for Anopheles mosquito breeding, i.e swamp, lagoon, andrice fields.The purpose of this study was to determine the correlation of environmental risk factors with the incidence of malaria in Tasikmalaya. Methods: The design of the study is case control study with 140 samples in 5 sub-district (Cineam, Cikatomas, Cipatujah, Salopa, and Jatiwaras). This study examines the environmental factors that influence the incidence of malaria in Tasikmalaya District in 2013. The research used 14 variables: individual characteristics (education, knowledge, occupation) and environmental risk factors (mobility to endemic areas, use mosquito nets, use of wire gauze at home, use mosquito repellent, repellent use, the presence of a large animal in a cage, breeding place, the presence of larvae, temperature and humidity chamber). Results: Results demonstrated an association between occupation (0.22; 0.10-0.47), the mobility of the population to the endemic areas (37.4; 14.29-98.18) ,the presence of larvae (5.26; 1.41-19.74), and the room temperature with optimum temperature for mosquito breeding is 25-30oC (3.25; 1.62- 6.50). Conclusion: The dominant factor affecting the spread of malaria in Tasikmalaya is the mobility of the population to endemic areas. The results of the study suggest migration survey conducted activity and health promotion for preventive efforts against malaria in malaria-endemic areas, and to encourage people to behave healthy life by freeing environment of mosquito larvae and protect themselves from mosquito bites.

Keywords: Environmental risk factors, malaria, correlation, Anopheles

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Yamral M. Warkaw, Aweke A. Mitku, Muluwerk Ayele

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Introduction: Malaria is a severe health threat in the World, mainly in Africa. It is the major cause of health problems in which the risk of morbidity and mortality associated with malaria cases are characterized by spatial variations across the county. This study aimed to investigate the spatial patterns and predictors of malaria distribution in Ethiopia. Methods: A weighted sample of 15,239 individuals with rapid diagnosis tests was obtained from the Central Statistical Agency and Ethiopia malaria indicator survey of 2015. Global Moran's I and Moran scatter plots were used in determining the distribution of malaria cases, whereas the local Moran's I statistic was used in identifying exposed areas. In data manipulation, machine learning was used for variable reduction and statistical software R, Stata, and Python were used for data management and analysis. The auto logistics spatial binary regression model was used to investigate the predictors of malaria. Results: The final auto logistics regression model reported that male clients had a positive significant effect on malaria cases as compared to female clients [AOR=2.401, 95 % CI: (2.125 - 2.713)]. The distribution of malaria across the regions was different. The highest incidence of malaria was found in Gambela [AOR=52.55, 95%CI: (40.54-68.12)] followed by Beneshangul [AOR=34.95, 95%CI: (27.159 - 44.963)]. Similarly, individuals in Amhara [AOR=0.243, 95% CI:(0.1950.303],Oromiya[AOR=0.197,95%CI:(0.1580.244)],DireDawa[AOR=0.064,95%CI(0.049-0.082)],AddisAbaba[AOR=0.057,95%CI:(0.044-0.075)], Somali[AOR=0.077,95%CI:(0.059-0.097)], SNNPR[OR=0.329, 95%CI: (0.261- 0.413)] and Harari [AOR=0.256, 95%CI:(0.201 - 0.325)] were less likely to had low incidence of malaria as compared with Tigray. Furthermore, for a one-meter increase in altitude, the odds of a positive rapid diagnostic test (RDT) decrease by 1.6% [AOR = 0.984, 95% CI :( 0.984 - 0.984)]. The use of a shared toilet facility was found as a protective factor for malaria in Ethiopia [AOR=1.671, 95% CI: (1.504 - 1.854)]. The spatial autocorrelation variable changes the constant from AOR = 0.471 for logistic regression to AOR = 0.164 for auto logistics regression. Conclusions: This study found that the incidence of malaria in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern that is associated with socio-economic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of malaria cases had occurred in all regions, and the risk of clustering was different across the regions. The risk of malaria was found to be higher for those who live in soil floor-type houses as compared to those who live in cement or ceramics floor type. Similarly, households with thatched, metal and thin, and other roof-type houses have a higher risk of malaria than ceramic tiles roof houses. Moreover, using a protected anti-mosquito net reduced the risk of malaria incidence.

Keywords: malaria, Ethiopia, auto logistics, spatial model, spatial clustering

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Authors: Ibrahim Mahamid, A. Al-Ghonamy, M. Aichouni

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This study aims at identifying the risk matrix for delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ viewpoint. A questionnaire survey was undertaken of 51 consultants working on construction projects in the Northern Province of Saudi Arabia. 35 delay causes were identified through a literature review. The study concluded that the top delay causes in construction projects in Saudi Arabia from consultants’ perspective are: bid award for lowest price, changes in material types and specifications during construction, contract management, duration of contract period, fluctuation of prices of materials, frequent changes in design, improper planning, inflationary pressure, lack of adequate manpower, long period of design and time of implementation, payments delay, poor labor productivity, and rework.

Keywords: delays, construction, consultants, contributors, risk map

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Authors: Jasna Prester, Ivana Rašić Bakarić, Božidar Matijević

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Various prominent scholars and substantial practitioner-oriented literature on innovation orientation have shown positive effects on firm performance. There is a myriad of factors that influence and enhance innovation but it has been found in the literature that new product innovations accounted for an average of 14 percent of sales revenues for all firms. If there is one thing that has changed in innovation management during the last decade, it is the growing reliance on external partners. As a consequence, a new task for purchasing arises, as firms need to understand which suppliers actually do have high potential contributing to the innovativeness of the firm and which do not. Purchasing function in an organization is extremely important as it deals on an average of 50% or more of a firm's expenditures. In the nineties the purchasing department was largely seen as a transaction-oriented, clerical function but today purchasing integration provides a formal interface mechanism between purchasing and other firm functions that services other functions within the company. Purchasing function has to be organized differently to enable firm innovation potential. However, innovations are inherently risky. There are behavioral risk (that some partner will take advantage of the other party), technological risk in terms of complexity of products and processes of manufacturing and incoming materials and finally market risks, which in fact judge the value of the innovation. These risks are investigated in this work since it has been found in the literature that the higher the technological risk, higher will be the centralization of the purchasing function as an interface with other supply chain members. Most researches on organization of purchasing function were done by case study analysis of innovative firms. This work actually tends to prove or discard results found in the literature based on case study method. A large data set of 1493 companies, from 25 countries collected in the GMRG 4 survey served as a basis for analysis.

Keywords: purchasing function organization, innovation, technological risk, GMRG 4 survey

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Authors: Nitzan Winograd, Nada Kakabadse

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This study examines whether the hospitality-based social enterprise Ringelblum Café is achieving its stated social goals of developing a sense of self-efficacy among at-risk youth who work in this enterprise and raising levels of recruitment to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and National Service (NS) among these young adults. Ringelblum Café was founded in 2009 in Be'er-Sheva in order to provide employment solutions for at-risk youth in the southern district of Israel. Each year, 10 at-risk young adults aged 16–18 are referred to the programme by various welfare agencies. The training programme is approximately a year in duration and includes professional training in the art of cooking. Each young adult is also supported by a social worker. This study is based on the participation of 31 youths who graduated from the Ringelblum Café’s training programme. A convenience sampling model was used with the assistance of the programme's social worker. This study is quantitative in its approach. Data was collected by means of three separate self-reported questionnaires: a personal information questionnaire collected general demographics data; a self-efficacy questionnaire consisted of two parts: general self-efficacy and social self-efficacy; and an IDS/NS recruitment questionnaire. The study uses the theory of change in order to find out whether at-risk youth in the Ringelblum Café programme are taught a profession with future prospects, as well as whether they develop a sense of self-efficacy and raise their chances of recruitment into the IDF/NS. The study found that the sense of self-efficacy of the graduates is relatively high. In addition, there was a significant difference between the importance of recruitment to the IDF/NS among these youth prior to the beginning of the programme and after its completion, indicating that the training programme had a positive effect on motivation for recruitment to the IDF/NS. The study also found that the percentage of recruits to the IDF/NS among youth who graduated from the training programme were not significantly higher than the general recruitment figures in Israel. In conclusion, Ringelblum Café is making sound progress towards achieving its social goals regarding recruitment to the IDF/NS. Moreover, the sense of self-efficacy among the graduates is relatively high, and it can be assumed that the training programme has a positive effect on these young adults, although there is no clear connection between the two. This study is among a few that have been conducted in the field of hospitality-based social enterprises in Israel and can serve as a basis for further research. Moreover, the study results may help improve the perception of at-risk youth and their contribution to society and could increase awareness of the growing trend of social enterprises promoting social goals.

Keywords: at-risk youth, Israel Defence Forces (IDF), national service, recruitment, self-efficacy, social enterprise

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Authors: Naser Shagerdi Esmaeli, Mohsen Hamidpour

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Purposes: The activation of coagulation in patients with cancer contributes significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and may play a fundamental role in the host response to growing tumor’s. Patients with cancer are clearly at high risk for the development of venous thromboembolism (VTE), particularly during chemotherapy and surgery. This situation is aggravated by the use of venous access catheters and possibly growth factors. Methods: Data derived from large, randomized, controlled trials have been used to determine the true incidence of this complication of cancer and its treatment. The incidence based on the analyses of these randomized controlled trials varies from 1% for limited stage patients with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen to 60% for patients with any type of cancer who are subjected to orthopedic surgery and do not receive prophylactic therapy. Results: In view of the morbidity and mortality attributable to VTE in cancer, widespread utilization of prophylactic anticoagulation therapy, which has proven safe and effective in a variety of situations, should be considered. While migratory thrombophlebitis is a clear indicator of an underlying neoplasm, the risk of cancer in patients with the more typical form of VTE has been the subject of intense debate over recent years. Conclusion: Some investigators have suggested that the relative risk of being diagnosed with occult cancer within six months of an episode of VTE (particularly recurrent VTE) could be up to 10-fold. However, the cost-effectiveness of aggressive screening for cancer in patients with VTE has not yet been defined adequately.

Keywords: venous thromboembolism, malignancy, cancer, tumor, heparin

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Authors: Takeo Shibata, Arihito Endo, Chika Hiraga, Akemi Kunimatsu, Yoko Shimizu

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Introduction: A health promotion program, Yuzawa family health plan, was initiated in 2002. It has been held for fifteen years. Yuzawa Town is famous with hot springs and ski resorts. We evaluated the changes in mental status in elementary school children. Methods: questionnaires survey had been held every five years. 196 questionnaires were corrected (94 boys and 102 girls). Changes for their anxieties, loneliness, confiding, problem-solving, risk breaching, communications, happiness, and life satisfaction were evaluated by chi-square test. Results: The rate of loneliness and life dissatisfactions decreased. The rates of happiness, confiding in grandparents, and risk breaching, increased. Especially, happiness rates increased for boys, loneliness rate decreased for girls, confiding in grandparents and risk breaching rate increased for girls. Conclusion: Our health promotion programs could increase mental health status in elementary school children.

Keywords: health promotion, mental status, elementary school, loneliness, happiness

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Authors: Udeh Anastasia Ifeoma

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The need to develop the rural areas in developing countries where there have been decades of neglect are on the increase. It is against this background that this paper examined the impact of micro finance contribution to Nigeria’s gross domestic product. Time series data for 12-years period 1999-2010 were collated from Central Bank of Nigeria published annual reports. The least squares (LS) regression was used to analyze the data. The result revealed that microfinance activities have negative and non-significant contribution to gross domestic product in Nigeria. The paper recommends that rural poverty is often a product of poor infrastructural facilities; therefore government should make a conscious effort towards industrializing the rural areas thereby motivating the micro finance institutions to locate their offices and extend credit facilities to rural areas thereby improving rural economic growth.

Keywords: microfinance, rural economic growth, Nigeria, developing countries

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Authors: Sandra Rigot, Samira Demaria, Frederic Lemaire

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The starting point of this research is the contemporary capitalist paradox: there is a real scarcity of long term investment despite the boom of potential long term investors. This gap represents a major challenge: there are important needs for long term financing in developed and emerging countries in strategic sectors such as energy, transport infrastructure, information and communication networks. Moreover, the recent financial and sovereign debt crises, which have respectively reduced the ability of financial banking intermediaries and governments to provide long term financing, questions the identity of the actors able to provide long term financing, their methods of financing and the most appropriate forms of intermediation. The issue of long term financing is deemed to be very important by the EU Commission, as it issued a 2013 Green Paper (GP) on long-term financing of the EU economy. Among other topics, the paper discusses the impact of the recent regulatory reforms on long-term investment, both in terms of accounting (in particular fair value) and prudential standards for banks. For banks, prudential and accounting standards are also crucial. Fair value is indeed well adapted to the trading book in a short term view, but this method hardly suits for a medium and long term portfolio. Banks’ ability to finance the economy and long term projects depends on their ability to distribute credit and the way credit is valued (fair value or amortised cost) leads to different banking strategies. Furthermore, in the banking industry, accounting standards are directly connected to the prudential standards, as the regulatory requirements of Basel III use accounting figures with prudential filter to define the needs for capital and to compute regulatory ratios. The objective of these regulatory requirements is to prevent insolvency and financial instability. In the same time, they can represent regulatory constraints to long term investing. The balance between financial stability and the need to stimulate long term financing is a key question raised by the EU GP. Does fair value accounting contributes to short-termism in the investment behaviour? Should prudential rules be “appropriately calibrated” and “progressively implemented” not to prevent banks from providing long-term financing? These issues raised by the EU GP lead us to question to what extent the main regulatory requirements incite or constrain banks to finance long term projects. To that purpose, we study the 292 responses received by the EU Commission during the public consultation. We analyze these contributions focusing on particular questions related to fair value accounting and prudential norms. We conduct a two stage content analysis of the responses. First, we proceed to a qualitative coding to identify arguments of respondents and subsequently we run a quantitative coding in order to conduct statistical analyses. This paper provides a better understanding of the position that a large panel of European stakeholders have on these issues. Moreover, it adds to the debate on fair value accounting and its effects on prudential requirements for banks. This analysis allows us to identify some short term bias in banking regulation.

Keywords: basel 3, fair value, securitization, long term investment, banks, insurers

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Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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The objective of the present study is to investigate the regional and lobar deposition of size-segregated PM in respiratory tract of human body. PM in different fractions is monitored using the Grimm portable environmental dust monitor during winter season in Firozabad; a Glass city of India. PM10 concentration (200.817g/m³) was 4.46 and 2.0 times higher than the limits prescribed by WHO (45g/m⁻³) and NAAQS (100g/m⁻³) government agencies. PM2.5 concentration (83.538 g/m3) was 5.56 and 1.39 times higher from WHO (15g/m-3) and NAAQS (60g/m⁻³) limits. Results inferred that PM10 and PM2.5 was highest deposited in head region (0.3477-0.5622 & 0.366-0.4704) followed by pulmonary region, especially in the 9-21year old persons. The variation in deposition percentage in our study is mainly due to the airway geometry, PM size, and its deposition mechanisms. The coarse fraction, due to its large size, cannot follow the airway path and mostly gets deposited by inertial impaction in the head region and its bifurcations. The present study results inferred that Coarse and fine PM deposition was highly visualized in 9 (8.45610⁻⁴ g, 2.91110⁻⁴g) year and 3 (1.49610⁻⁴ g, 8.59310⁻⁵g) month age category. So, the 9year children and 3month infants category have high level of health risk.

Keywords: particulate matter, MPPD model, regional deposition, lobar deposition, health risk

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Authors: Maryam Siyami

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Nowadays, one of the major environmental challenges is hospital waste, which, due to the presence of hazardous, toxic, and infectious agents, is of particular concern. The expansion of cities and population growth has significantly accelerated the establishment of various healthcare institutions. In this paper, the geotechnical-environmental risks in healthcare centers have been examined. The Iranian Leopold Matrix method was used to analyze the data. According to the study results, the greatest impact was related to socio-economic, environmental factors, particularly waste and wastewater management. Additionally, the most significant geotechnical-environmental risks at hospital were hospital hazardous waste, chemicals, and waste disposal. In conclusion, the most beneficial geotechnical-environmental measures were determined to be wastewater collection, waste collection, and recycling.

Keywords: risk, geotechnics, environment, Leopold Matrix

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

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Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: gender-based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, risky sexual behavior, young women

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: Sittipong Jarernprasert, Enrique Bazan-Zurita, Paul C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: seismic, directionality, in-structure response spectra, probabilistic risk assessment

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Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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Authors: Saiakhil Chilaka

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Juvenile recidivism presents a significant challenge to the criminal justice system, impacting both the individuals involved and broader societal safety. This study aims to identify the key factors influencing recidivism and successful rehabilitation outcomes by utilizing a dataset of over 25,000 individuals from the NIJ Recidivism Challenge. We employed machine learning techniques, particularly Random Forest Classification, combined with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for model interpretability. Our findings indicate that supervision risk score, percent days employed, and education level are critical factors affecting recidivism, with higher levels of supervision, successful employment, and education contributing to lower recidivism rates. Conversely, Gang Affiliation emerged as a significant risk factor for reoffending. The model achieved an accuracy of 68.8%, highlighting its utility in identifying high-risk individuals and informing targeted interventions. These results suggest that a comprehensive approach involving personalized supervision, vocational training, educational support, and anti-gang initiatives can significantly reduce recidivism and enhance rehabilitation outcomes for juveniles, providing critical insights for policymakers and juvenile justice practitioners.

Keywords: juvenile, justice system, data analysis, SHAP

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Authors: M. A. Peribanez, G. Illan, I. De Blas, A. Muniesa, I. Ruiz-Zarzuela

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Intensive aquaculture is commonly associated with increased incidence of parasites. However, in Spain, the recent intensification of cyprinid production has not led to knowledge of the parasites that develop in the aquaculture facilities, the factors that affect their development and spread and the transmission between wild and cultivated fish species. The present study focuses on the knowledge of environmental factors, as well as host dependent factors, and their possible influence as risk factors in the incidence and intensity of parasitic infections. This work was conducted in the Duero River Basin, NW Spain. A total of 114 tenches (Tinca tinca) were caught in a fish farm and 667 specimens belonging to six species of cyprinid, not tench, in five rivers. An exhaustive search and microscopic identification of protozoa on skin and gills were carried out. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters of water samples from the capture points were determined. Only two ectoprotozoa were identified, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. In I. multifiliis, a high intensity of infection (more than 40 parasites on the body surface and more than 80 on gills) was determined in farmed tench (14%) and in Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) (91%) and Duero nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense) (71%) of middle stretches of rivers. The prevalence was similar between farmed tenches and cyprinids of middle courses. Tripartiella sp. was only found in barbels (prevalence in middle stretches, 0.7%) and in farmed tenches (63%), this species resulting in a high risk factor (odds ratio, OR= 1143) in the presence of the ciliate. There were no differences between the two species relative to the intensity of parasitization. Some of the physical, chemical and microbiological water quality parameters appear to be risk factors in the presence of I. multifiliis, with maximum OR of 8. Nevertheless, in Tripartiella sp., the risk is multiplied by 720 when the pH value exceeds 8.4, if we consider the total of the data, and it is increased more than 500 times if we only consider the values recorded in the fish farm (529 by nitrates > 3 mg/l; 530 by total coliforms > 100 CFU/100 ml). However, the high prevalence and risk of infection by I. multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. in fish farms should be related to environmental factors that dependent upon sampling point rather than in direct influence of the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the water. The high pH value recorded in the fish farm (9.62 ± 0.76) is the only parameter that we consider may have a substantial direct influence. Chronic exposure to alkaline pH levels can be a chronic stress generator, predisposing to parasitization by Tripartiella sp. In conclusion, often minor changes in ecosystem conditions, both natural and man-made, can modify the host-parasite relationship, resulting in an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasitic infections in populations of cyprinids, sometimes causing disease outbreaks.

Keywords: cyprinids, fish, parasites, protozoa, risk factors

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Lia Marchi, Ernesto Antonini

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The impact of industrial sites on people’s living environment both involves detrimental effects on the ecosystem and perceptual-aesthetic interferences with the scenery. These, in turn, affect the economic and social value of the landscape, as well as the wellbeing of workers and local communities. Given the diffusion of the phenomenon and the relevance of its effects, it emerges the need for a joint approach to assess and thus mitigate the impact of factories on the landscape –being this latest assumed as the result of the action and interaction of natural and human factors. However, the impact assessment tools suitable for the purpose are quite heterogeneous and mostly monodisciplinary. On the one hand, green building rating systems (GBRSs) are increasingly used to evaluate the performance of manufacturing sites, mainly by quantitative indicators focused on environmental issues. On the other hand, methods to detect the visual and social impact of factories on the landscape are gradually emerging in the literature, but they generally adopt only qualitative gauges. The research addresses the integration of the environmental impact assessment and the perceptual-aesthetic interferences of factories on the landscape. The GBRSs model is assumed as a reference since it is adequate to simultaneously investigate different topics which affect sustainability, returning a global score. A critical analysis of GBRSs relevant to industrial facilities has led to select the U.S. GBC LEED protocol as the most suitable to the scope. A revision of LEED v4 Building Design+Construction has then been provided by including specific indicators to measure the interferences of manufacturing sites with the perceptual-aesthetic and social aspects of the territory. To this end, a new impact category was defined, namely ‘PA - Perceptual-aesthetic aspects’, comprising eight new credits which are specifically designed to assess how much the buildings are in harmony with their surroundings: these investigate, for example the morphological and chromatic harmonization of the facility with the scenery or the site receptiveness and attractiveness. The credits weighting table was consequently revised, according to the LEED points allocation system. As all LEED credits, each new PA credit is thoroughly described in a sheet setting its aim, requirements, and the available options to gauge the interference and get a score. Lastly, each credit is related to mitigation tactics, which are drawn from a catalogue of exemplary case studies, it also developed by the research. The result is a modified LEED scheme which includes compatibility with the landscape within the sustainability assessment of the industrial sites. The whole system consists of 10 evaluation categories, which contain in total 62 credits. Lastly, a test of the tool on an Italian factory was performed, allowing the comparison of three mitigation scenarios with increasing compatibility level. The study proposes a holistic and viable approach to the environmental impact assessment of factories by a tool which integrates the multiple involved aspects within a worldwide recognized rating protocol.

Keywords: environmental impact, GBRS, landscape, LEED, sustainable factory

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Authors: Ayedun Hassan, Ayadi Odunayo Peter

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The ancient city of Abeokuta has been supplied with pipe borne water since 1911, yet, a continuous increase in population and unplanned city expansion makes water a very precious and scarce commodity. The government reserved areas (GRA’s) are well planned, and public water supply is available; however, the sub-urban areas consist of scattered structures with individuals trying to source water by digging wells and boreholes. The geology of the city consists of basement rock which makes digging wells and boreholes very difficult. The present study was conducted to assess the risk arising from the consumption of toxic elements in the groundwater of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. Forty-five groundwater samples were collected from nine different areas of Abeokuta and analyzed for physicochemical parameters and toxic elements. The physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods, while the toxic elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer (ICP/MS). Ninety-six percent (96%) of the water sample has pH < 6.5, and 11% has conductivity > 250 µSCm⁻¹ limits in drinking water as recommended by WHO. Seven percent (7%) of the samples have Pb concentration >10 µgL⁻¹ while 75% have Al concentration >200 µgL⁻¹ recommended by WHO. The order for risk of cancer from different area of Abeokuta are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Funaab, Camp and Obantoko; As³⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Ita Osin, Isale Igbein, Ake and Itoku; Cd²⁺ >As > Cr⁶⁺ > Pb²⁺ for Totoro; Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Idiaba. The order of non-cancer hazard index (HI) calculated for groundwater of Abeokuta City are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Mn²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Ni²⁺ and were all greater than one, which implies susceptibility to other illnesses. The sources of these elements are the rock and inappropriate waste disposal method, which leached the elements into the groundwater. A combination of sources from food will accumulate these elements in the human body system. Treatment to remove Al and Pb is necessary, while the method of water distribution should be reviewed to ensure access to potable water by the residents.

Keywords: Abeokuta, groundwater, Nigeria, risk

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Authors: Huma Naqeeb

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Epidemiological studies have shown the robust link between breast cancer and dietary pattern. There has been no previous study conducted in Pakistan, which specifically focuses on dietary patterns among breast cancer women. This study aims to examine the association of breast cancer with dietary patterns among Pakistani women. This case-control research was carried in multiple tertiary care facilities. Newly diagnosed primary breast cancer patients were recruited as cases (n = 408); age matched controls (n = 408) were randomly selected from the general population. Data on required parameters were systematically collected using subjective and objective tools. Factor and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques were used to extract women’s dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified based on eigenvalue >1; (i) veg-ovo-fish, (ii) meat-fat-sweet, (iii) mix (milk and its products, and gourds vegetables) and (iv) lentils - spices. Results of the multiple regressions were displayed as adjusted odds ratio (Adj. OR) and their respective confidence intervals (95% CI). After adjusted for potential confounders, veg-ovo-fish dietary pattern was found to be robustly associated with a lower risk of breast cancer among women (Adj. OR: 0.68, 95%CI: (0.46-0.99, p<0.01). The study findings concluded that attachment to the diets majorly composed of fresh vegetables, and high quality protein sources may contribute in lowering the risk of breast cancer among women.

Keywords: breast cancer, dietary pattern, women, principal component analysis

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Authors: Collen Kawiya

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In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

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Authors: Abhishikta Ghosh Roy

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Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among women globally, including India. Human breast cancer results from the genetic and environmental interaction. The present study attempts to understand the molecular heterogeneity of BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, as well as to understand the association of various lifestyle and reproductive variables for the Breast Cancer risk. The study was conducted amongst 110 patients and 128 controls with total DNA sequencing of flanking and coding regions of BRCA1 BRCA2 genes that revealed ten Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) (6 novels). The controls selected for the study were age, sex and ethnic group matched. After written and informed consent biological samples were collected from the subjects. After detailed molecular analysis, significant (p < 0.005) molecular heterogeneity is revealed in terms of SNPs in BRCA1 (4 Exonic & 1 Intronic) and BRCA2 (2exonic and 3 Intronic) genes. The augmentation study investigated significant (p < 0.05) association with positive family history, early age at menarche, irregular menstrual periods, menopause, prolong contraceptive use, nulliparity, history of abortions, consumption of alcohol and smoking for breast cancer risk. To the best of authors knowledge, this study is the first of its kind, envisaged that the identification of the SNPs and modification of the lifestyle factors might aid to minimize the risk among the Bengalee Hindu females.

Keywords: breast cancer, BRCA, lifestyle, India

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Authors: J. Vinay , Kusumbati Besra, Niharika Pattnaik, Shivaram Prasad Singh, Manjusha Dixit

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Gallbladder cancer (GBC) is rare but highly malignant cancer; its prevalence is more in certain geographical regions and ethnic groups, which include the Northern and Eastern states of India. Previous studies in India have reported genetic predisposition as one of the risk factors in GBC pathogenesis. Although the matrix metalloproteinase-14 (MMP14) is a well-known modulator of the tumor microenvironment and tumorigenesis and TCGA data also suggests its upregulation yet, its role in the genetic predisposition for GBC is completely unknown. We elucidated the role of MMP14 promoter variants as genetic risk factors and their implications in expression modulation. We screened MMP14 promoter variants association with GBC using Sanger’s sequencing in approximately 300 GBC and 300 control subjects and 26 GBC tissue samples of Indian ethnicity. The immunohistochemistry was used to check the MMP14 protein expression in GBC tissue samples. The role of promoter variants on expression levels was elucidated using a luciferase reporter assay. The variants rs1004030 (p-value = 0.0001) and rs1003349 (p-value = 0.0008) were significantly associated with gallbladder cancer. The luciferase assay in two different cell lines, HEK-293 (p = 0.0006) and TGBC1TKB (p = 0.0036) showed a significant increase in relative luciferase activity in the presence of risk alleles for both the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Similarly, genotype-phenotype correlation in patients samples confirmed that the presence of risk alleles at rs1004030 and rs1003349 increased MMP14 expression. Overall, this study unravels the genetic association of MMP14 promoter variants with gallbladder cancer, which may contribute to pathogenesis by increasing its expression.

Keywords: gallbladder cancer, matrix metalloproteinase-14, single nucleotide polymorphism, case control study, genetic association study

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